Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

• Rumänien: Har utlovat ett system, oklart när detta kan överlämnas

The President of Romania signed a decree on the transfer of the Patriot system to Ukraine

Back in June, Bucharest stated it would hand over one of its two Patriot systems to Ukraine on the condition that the allies replace it with a similar air defense system. The "Romanian" Patriot is part of the air defense equipment that NATO countries have promised to provide to Ukraine.

The Ministry of Defense of Romania said that it will deliver one of the seven systems in the 3+ configuration purchased from the USA. This is the most advanced version of the Patriot defense system, used by the US and almost 20 other NATO allies.

[...]

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia in February 2022, Western countries have provided Ukraine with various air defense systems, all missiles can be shot down only by American Patriot air defense systems, the Ukrainian military has only a few such units. Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba has repeatedly called on foreign partners to transfer 5-7 Patriot systems to Ukraine and called this number the minimum necessary. 25 Patriot systems are needed to fully protect the sky over Ukraine.

Men nu är det ju det, va, att jag har hört att Rumänien är ett mycket fattigt land, som har misslyckats med att skapa drägliga levnadsförhållanden. Vem betalar?

Den 29 juli fick Ukraina både USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) och PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority) - faktiskt nummer 62 i ordningen.

Biden administration races to save billions in Ukraine aid as deadline looms

However, most of the $7.8 billion in PDA in the bill Biden signed into law in April has not been used, leaving officials scrambling to find a way to keep the remaining $6 billion from expiring as the Sept. 30 deadline - the end of the 2024 fiscal year - approaches.

Sources close to the negotiations told Reuters that the State Department hopes to attach an extension of the PDA authorities to a Continuing Resolution, a short-term emergency spending bill that the Senate and House of Representatives must pass this month to avoid a Sept. 30 government shutdown.

[...]

Companies like RTX's (RTX.N) Raytheon in Arizona which makes Patriot missile systems and General Dynamics' (GD.N) 155 millimeter artillery plants in Pennsylvania, are receiving contracts for products that will replace those sent to Ukraine using PDA. Arizona and Pennsylvania are among the "swing" states expected to decide the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election.

As negotiations with Congress continue, the administration is considering a backup plan, according to sources familiar with the discussions, in which the State Department would make a substantial PDA announcement before the Sept. 30, effectively spending the remaining $6 billion before it expires.

Det militärindustriella komplexet jublar, inte minst RTX och General Dynamics. Hur röstar de anställda? Men USA:s flygvapen vill också ha lite av det roliga:

The Department of Defense has realigned $550 million in previously reprogrammed replacement funds from the Ukraine Supplementals to procure JASSM-ERs, LRASMs and JSMs for the US Air Force.

This is to replace HARMs provided to Ukraine.

Funds were realigned from USN AARGM-ER procurement.

If the US does drawdown some "expired" AGM-158A baseline JASSMs to Ukraine, the USAF stands to get even more funding for new missiles.

Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 17 688 enheter, varav 3 356 stridsvagnar och 1 644 artilleripjäser (405 dragna, 826 självgående samt 413 raketiska).

[Enceladus]

USA skalar upp granatproduktionen snabbare än väntat:

Assistant Secretary Bush says that 155mm ammunition production will reach close to 80,000/month this fall (Q1 FY25). The previous target was 70,000/m. He also adds it will exceed 100,000/m next summer; the current target for that is the end of the summer/end of Q4 FY25, so that may or may not be a revision to the schedule.

I edited the graph to show the revision. They are basically going to be ~9 months ahead of schedule for 80k/m.

Därför blir valet så viktigt för Ukraina!

Den tyska vapentillverkaren Rheinmetall skalar också upp:

Rheinmetall, across all facilities globally, will have production capacity for 600,000-700,000 155mm rounds per year by year-end. For comparison, the US will have capacity for 960,000/y by then.

Rheinmetall's new target is over 1,000,000/y by the end of 2026. The US will reach over 1,200,000/y by the end of next summer.

Much of Rheinmetall's expected growth will come from their new facility in Unterlüß, which will open next year with a production capacity of 50,000/y and grow to a maximum capacity of 200,000/y. Rheinmetall's future plant in Ukraine is expected to have a capacity of at least 100,000/y, and their future plant in Lithuania likely a similar amount.

Som bekant har enbart Tyskland flera stora vapentillverkare:

Petimeteranmärkning! Jag nämnde aldrig just Diehl Defence explicit, och Diehl Group är verkligen ett konglomerat, men eftersom det är mest känt för sin försvarsproduktion tyckte jag det var rimligt att sätta det prefixet, oavsett vilken rörelsegren den aktuella fabriken tillhör.

Vem har tiden på sin sida?

I Ukraina har man inte så lätt att förstå schweizisk neutralitet: Swiss neutrality is misunderstood in Ukraine, says Swiss ambassador

Kontroversiell rapport utmanar Schweiz neutralitet

En av punkterna som väckt kraftigast reaktioner i landet är den som föreslår att Schweiz ska ha en ”gemensam försvarsförmåga” tillsammans med EU och Nato. Detta efter att Schweiz förbundsråd, regeringen, tidigare i augusti gett grönt ljus åt landets armé att delta i två EU-projekt av militär karaktär, bland annat ett om cyberförsvar.

[...]

En majoritet i kommittén står dessutom bakom ett förslag om att den schweiziska neutralitetsprincipen ska formas om, till att mer likna FN:s stadgar, som gör skillnad på ”offer” och ”förövare” i en konflikt, enligt Berner Zeitung.

[...]

Den andra punkten som skapar splittring bland schweizarna handlar om landets vapenindustri, som under de senaste åren backat kraftigt. Mycket beroende på landets restriktioner som förbjuder vapenexport till länder i krig. Reglerna, som de tolkats, hindrar även andra länder som köpt schweiziska vapen att sälja eller skänka dessa vidare till andra nationer som är i krig.

Sedan den ryska invasionen inleddes har flera länder nekats att skänka vapen och annan militärutrustning med Schweiztillverkade komponenter till Ukraina. De schweiziska relationerna med inte bland annat Tyskland har påverkats av restriktionerna.

Lagen som förbjuder schweiziska tillverkare att sälja vapen som via en annan nation hamnar i händerna på ett krigförande land måste bort, anser utredarna.

Stackarna förstår inte heller sin neutralitet. Dessvärre kan det redan vara för sent:

Germany is punishing the Swiss defence industry for blocking deliveries of Swiss-made arms to #Ukraine!

German authorities have informed the Swiss Federal Office for Defence Procurement in a letter that the German Bundeswehr would refrain from procuring certain Swiss armaments in future.

For example, Switzerland prevented the delivery of around 12,000 rounds of ammunition for the Gepard SPAAGs, which are a critical air defence asset in Ukraine.

En av de drivande faktorerna är förstås landets krisande vapenindustri: Förra året föll vapenexporten med 27 procent.

[Enceladus]

Tekniska framsteg för oljepumpning och Kinas krig mot olja har drivit fram ett scenario där utbudet av olja överstiger efterfrågan.

Oljepriset pressar Putin – ”någon kan tröttna”

Att det globala oljepriset har sjunkit från över 120 dollar sommaren 2022 till drygt 70 dollar i dag borde oroa Vladimir Putin, som styr en ekonomi som i hög grad är beroende av oljeinkomster. Under årets första halvår sjönk landets gas- och oljeinkomster med 41 procent, till följd av lägre priser och försvagad rubel, enligt Reuters.

– Historiskt är det internationella oljepriset den allra viktigaste faktorn när det gäller att se hur det går för rysk ekonomi. Både exportinkomsterna och statens budget är beroende på hur stora oljeinkomsterna är, säger Torbjörn Becker, chef för Östekonomiska institutet vid Handelshögskolan i Stockholm.

När utbudet överstiger efterfrågan tenderar priset att sjunka. Vad tycker Putin om Kinas och Musks krig mot olja? Var inte Tyskland en bättre partner trots allt?

Samtidigt bryter Ryssland mot oljekartellen Opecs egna regler för hur mycket olja som får pumpas upp:

Russian Fuel Exports Hit New Post-Pandemic Low — Down 13% in August

Russian oil product exports hit a post-pandemic low in August, according to recent tanker tracking data. Seaborne export loadings of refined products, including diesel, fuel oil, and naphtha, averaged 2.09 million barrels per day (b/d), marking a 13% decrease from July and a substantial drop of nearly 700,000 b/d compared to January levels.

This decline comes in the wake of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russia’s refining capacity earlier in the year. Despite Russian refineries largely recovering from these attacks, the export slump persists. The situation was further complicated by a drone attack on the Moscow refinery in September, disrupting operations at a facility crucial for supplying the capital’s fuel needs.

Gasoline exports saw the most dramatic fall, plummeting 40% to 75,000 b/d. This trend is expected to continue following Russia’s ban on gasoline exports from September to December, aimed at controlling domestic prices during peak seasonal demand.

[...]

In contrast to the decline in refined product exports, Russian seaborne crude exports saw a modest increase in August, averaging 3.36 million b/d. This uptick comes despite thin discounts for Russian oil and improved compliance with OPEC+ output cuts.

Nu tvingas Opec att förlänga sina nedskärningar igen. Det hjälper inte att medlemsländerna inte alltid följer reglerna för hur mycket olja som får pumpas upp...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

USA skalar upp granatproduktionen snabbare än väntat:

Assistant Secretary Bush says that 155mm ammunition production will reach close to 80,000/month this fall (Q1 FY25). The previous target was 70,000/m. He also adds it will exceed 100,000/m next summer; the current target for that is the end of the summer/end of Q4 FY25, so that may or may not be a revision to the schedule.

I edited the graph to show the revision. They are basically going to be ~9 months ahead of schedule for 80k/m.

Därför blir valet så viktigt för Ukraina!

Den tyska vapentillverkaren Rheinmetall skalar också upp:

Rheinmetall, across all facilities globally, will have production capacity for 600,000-700,000 155mm rounds per year by year-end. For comparison, the US will have capacity for 960,000/y by then.

Rheinmetall's new target is over 1,000,000/y by the end of 2026. The US will reach over 1,200,000/y by the end of next summer.

Much of Rheinmetall's expected growth will come from their new facility in Unterlüß, which will open next year with a production capacity of 50,000/y and grow to a maximum capacity of 200,000/y. Rheinmetall's future plant in Ukraine is expected to have a capacity of at least 100,000/y, and their future plant in Lithuania likely a similar amount.

Som bekant har enbart Tyskland flera stora vapentillverkare:

Petimeteranmärkning! Jag nämnde aldrig just Diehl Defence explicit, och Diehl Group är verkligen ett konglomerat, men eftersom det är mest känt för sin försvarsproduktion tyckte jag det var rimligt att sätta det prefixet, oavsett vilken rörelsegren den aktuella fabriken tillhör.

Vem har tiden på sin sida?

De källkritiske observerar genast att Enceladus-kollektivet helt okritiskt förlitar sig på div. inlägg i musk-kloaken från krigshetsaren och Netanyahu-anhängaren Badhwar. Vem som har tiden på sin sida? det kommer att visa sig med tiden. T.ex. den 7 november.

Det sista citatet från mig ovan är på vanligt citatförfalskarmanér ryckt ur sitt sammanhang, som handlade om någonting annat.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

I Ukraina har man inte så lätt att förstå schweizisk neutralitet: Swiss neutrality is misunderstood in Ukraine, says Swiss ambassador

Kontroversiell rapport utmanar Schweiz neutralitet

En av punkterna som väckt kraftigast reaktioner i landet är den som föreslår att Schweiz ska ha en ”gemensam försvarsförmåga” tillsammans med EU och Nato. Detta efter att Schweiz förbundsråd, regeringen, tidigare i augusti gett grönt ljus åt landets armé att delta i två EU-projekt av militär karaktär, bland annat ett om cyberförsvar.

[...]

En majoritet i kommittén står dessutom bakom ett förslag om att den schweiziska neutralitetsprincipen ska formas om, till att mer likna FN:s stadgar, som gör skillnad på ”offer” och ”förövare” i en konflikt, enligt Berner Zeitung.

[...]

Den andra punkten som skapar splittring bland schweizarna handlar om landets vapenindustri, som under de senaste åren backat kraftigt. Mycket beroende på landets restriktioner som förbjuder vapenexport till länder i krig. Reglerna, som de tolkats, hindrar även andra länder som köpt schweiziska vapen att sälja eller skänka dessa vidare till andra nationer som är i krig.

Sedan den ryska invasionen inleddes har flera länder nekats att skänka vapen och annan militärutrustning med Schweiztillverkade komponenter till Ukraina. De schweiziska relationerna med inte bland annat Tyskland har påverkats av restriktionerna.

Lagen som förbjuder schweiziska tillverkare att sälja vapen som via en annan nation hamnar i händerna på ett krigförande land måste bort, anser utredarna.

Stackarna förstår inte heller sin neutralitet. Dessvärre kan det redan vara för sent:

Germany is punishing the Swiss defence industry for blocking deliveries of Swiss-made arms to #Ukraine!

German authorities have informed the Swiss Federal Office for Defence Procurement in a letter that the German Bundeswehr would refrain from procuring certain Swiss armaments in future.

For example, Switzerland prevented the delivery of around 12,000 rounds of ammunition for the Gepard SPAAGs, which are a critical air defence asset in Ukraine.

En av de drivande faktorerna är förstås landets krisande vapenindustri: Förra året föll vapenexporten med 27 procent.

Ett ytterligare faktor är att delar av den schweiziska vapenindustrin nu är i tysk ägo. Så är t.ex. Oerlikon Contraves numera Rheinmetall Air Defence. Om Schweiz vidhåller sin inställning riskerar landet att utländskägda företag flyttar produktionsfaciliteter därifrån.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Trump har lovat att förbjuda storbankernas värsta mardröm: digitala kontanter. Ändå varnar storbanken Goldman för att rösta på Trump - liksom hans parti:

“Many believe that we may end up in a new ‘CBDC Cold War era’ where you’re going to have a big chunk of the world, probably the US and potentially Europe, where CBDCs will not be a thing and they’ll probably be banned,” said Henri Arslanian, an adjunct professor who teaches courses on crypto and financial technology at the University of Hong Kong. “When you look at the research and the data, you can really see that these two ecosystems are moving in very different directions — Countries like China today are easily five, six years ahead of the rest of the world when it comes to CBDCs.”

[...]

“Republicans will end Democrats’ unlawful and unAmerican Crypto crackdown and oppose the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency,” the Republican platform on the website of Trump’s campaign reads. “We will defend the right to mine Bitcoin, and ensure every American has the right to self-custody of their Digital Assets, and transact free from Government Surveillance and Control.”

[...]

“There is an argument that by not launching a CBDC, the US may fall behind in terms of broader international competition with regards to currency usage,” said Gusdorf of Moody’s. “The US dollar today is by far the No. 1 reserve currency and it provides a number of advantages to the US, but you have all these currencies that are gaining traction.”

Gissa vem som återigen gnuggar händerna...

Men krytovalutor gillar han, tydligen - åtminstone just nu: Trump kallar sig ”kryptopresidenten” – men kryptobolag ger miljoner till både Demokraterna och Republikanerna

Det mesta är "just nu" beträffande Trump.

[Enceladus]

När utbudet överstiger efterfrågan tenderar priset att sjunka. Vad tycker Putin om Kinas och Musks krig mot olja? Var inte Tyskland en bättre partner trots allt?

Gazprom Postpones Arctic Gas Exploration Projects After Record Loss

In the Kara Sea, where Gazprom holds 11 licenses, exploratory well drilling at the Leningradskoye and Obruchevsky sites has been pushed back by four years, from 2029-2031 to 2033-2035, and from 2029-2032 to 2033-2036, respectively. Drilling at the Nevsky site is now scheduled for 2036 instead of 2032, while the Morskoy site has been removed from the plan entirely.

[...]

Gazprom's decision to postpone its Arctic projects comes amid a sharp deterioration in its financial situation and stalled negotiations with China over the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline.

The project, which has been under discussion for nearly a decade, would have allowed Russia to increase its gas supplies to China to 100 billion cubic meters per year. However, despite President Vladimir Putin's regular visits to Beijing, the pipeline has not received approval from Chinese President Xi Jinping.

According to the Financial Times, China only agreed to buy gas from the pipeline at domestic Russian prices — around $60 per 1,00 cubic meters — making the project financially unviable, according to analysts from the BCS Financial Group.

Tyskland lät Ryssland diktera sin energipolitik. Kina vill däremot diktera Rysslands energipolitik. Vem behöver fiender med sådana vänner?

Det här visar att alla som på något sätt ådragit sig Putins misshag, även om de inte blir måltavlor för FSB/GRU:s mordkommandon, lever farligt om de någon gång skulle besöka ett land som på något sätt är affilierat med Rysssland. Kanske t.om. Ungern eller Slovakien.

Viktor Orbán is losing his Putin discount

The unfolding changes will inevitably raise Hungary’s costs. Buying through intermediaries — or paying Ukraine additional transit fees — is more expensive. And turning to the Croatian pipeline would certainly prove more costly.

Yet Hungary has found few sympathetic ears in the EU. The country was granted an exemption to the EU’s bloc-wide embargo on Russian pipeline oil following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The carveout was only intended to be temporary, however, to allow the landlocked countries to secure alternative supplies.

Instead, Budapest has ramped up its imports of Russian gas via Druzhba by 50 percent compared to 2021 and has signed new natural gas deals with Moscow’s state firm Gazprom. One EU diplomat, granted anonymity to speak freely, bemoaned that “they have had enough time to adapt” and said “it's a question of will.”

[...]

According to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, Magyar’s Tisza faction is now polling at 32 percent of the vote, within spitting distance of Fidesz’s 43 percent and the PM's closest challenger since the collapse of the previous opposition coalition in 2022.

Viktor Orban har också anledning att se över sin bekantskapskrets. Han har två år på sig - nästa parlamentsval väntas hållas 2026!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Hade hamnat i fel tråd - tydligen. Nåja, en dag kanske man lär sig - om viljan finns:

Nej, det är Europa som äger frågan om att återinföra FN-sanktionerna mot Iran. Nu är duvorna Biden och Scholz på väg ut. Hårda tider skapar starka ledare!

Hahaha, vilken floskel. Ja, som Donald J. Trump.

U.S. Tells Allies Iran Has Sent Ballistic Missiles to Russia

The shipment involves a couple of hundred short-range ballistic missiles, according to Western officials. Iran has a variety of such weapons, with a range stretching up to around 500 miles.

“This is not the end,” a senior European official said, noting that Iran is expected to keep weapons flowing into Russia.

[...]

The Iranian missiles could work alongside Russian glide bombs and drones to try to overwhelm Ukraine in the battlefield, said Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank. “Accuracy is easier to achieve over shorter ranges,” he said.

[...]

However, while EU officials had said earlier this year that Iranian missile transfers to Russia would be a red line that could see them directly wind back some of the sanctions relief Tehran won in the 2015 nuclear deal, they have been more tentative in recent weeks. One senior European diplomat said last week that beyond the airline sector, other economic or banking ties with Iran won’t be severed.

[...]

However, European capitals have repeatedly warned Tehran that Russia’s war in Ukraine is their top security concern and that further Iranian support for Moscow could undermine any improvement in ties.

Bidens försök att locka Iran med eftergifter - flera miljarder sådana - har misslyckats kapitalt:

Biden’s Iran Gamble: A Risky New Strategy to Keep Tehran From Going Nuclear



Biden hoppas kunna skjuta det iranska problemet framför sig. Varken ett förnyat avtal eller en militär operation lockar. Vänta tills världen slutar köpa olja?

Hoping to Avert Nuclear Crisis, U.S. Seeks Informal Agreement With Iran

Iran would agree under a new pact — which two Israeli officials called “imminent” — not to enrich uranium beyond its current production level of 60 percent purity. That is close to but short of the 90 percent purity needed to fashion a nuclear weapon, a level that the United States has warned would force a severe response.

Iran would also halt lethal attacks on American contractors in Syria and Iraq by its proxies in the region, expand its cooperation with international nuclear inspectors, and refrain from selling ballistic missiles to Russia, Iranian officials said.

In return, Iran would expect the United States to avoid tightening sanctions already choking its economy; to not seize oil-bearing foreign tankers, as it most recently did in April; and to not seek new punitive resolutions at the United Nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency against Iran for its nuclear activity.

Det verkar inte bli några iranska missiler för Ryssland. I utbyte lättas vissa sanktioner mot Iran, vilket den iranska mördarregimen desperat behöver.

Tyvärr verkar Scholz gå i samma fotspår. Stackars Merz som tvingas städa upp ännu en röra. Det tyska valet kan inte komma snart nog...

Signaturen "Richard Goldberg" menar att även Zelenskyj bär en del av skulden för den uppkomna situationen:

Zelensky holds the power to press the Europeans to restore the UN missile embargo on Iran. He decided not to use it last year. And still does not today. And he can’t say he wasn’t warned.

Än är det dock inte för sent!

[Enceladus]

Ja, här flödar propaganda, ohämmade spekulationer och grundlösa påståenden. Det är nästan som man tror sig förflyttad till förra sommaren då samma spinn från Enceladus-kollektivet omgärdade Ukrainas misslyckade offensiv.

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has triggered doubts among Russian elite, spy chiefs say

CIA director Bill Burns said Kursk was “a significant tactical achievement” that had boosted Ukrainian morale and exposed Russia’s weaknesses. It has “raised questions . . . across the Russian elite about where is this all headed”, he said.

[...]

On Russia, both men said there was no sign that Putin’s grip on power had lessened. But it would be wrong to “confuse a tight grip on power with a stable grip”, Moore said, especially as the Kursk incursion had “brought the war home to ordinary Russians”.

Both also said it would be wrong to take Putin’s threats of nuclear escalation lightly but that the west should not be unnecessarily intimidated. “Putin is a bully and is going to continue sabre-rattling from time to time,” Burns said.

[...]

Asked if Russian intelligence might be conducting similar sabotage operations against the US by abetting illegal migration across the Mexico border, Burns said: “It’s something we are very sharply focused on. Part of that is a function of so many Russian agents [being] kicked out of Europe. So they are looking for somewhere to go instead.”

Despite the threat posed by Russia and the risk of conflagration in the Middle East, both Burns and Moore stressed that their biggest challenge was China’s rise.

CIA-chefen William Burns och MI6-chefen Richard Moore håller inte med om skribentens narrativ, men skribenten kanske vet bättre själv. Luktar lite Mossad...

En iransk politiker påstår att missilerna byttes mot mat och pengar. Duvan Biden gav Iran 16 miljarder dollar för att inte göra detta. Ryssland ger knappast mer.

An update on Russian military spending

A small share of spending on military equipment is also included in Russia’s open budget listing (417 billion rubles in the first half of 2024). This is of course not the actual military procurement, which is part of secret spending and amounts to several trillions of rubles. But the development of open spending on equipment could still give an indication of the general trends: It grew by 46% in 2022, then by 47% in 2023 and now by 54% in 2024. Unlike spending on salaries, which showed a huge increase in 2023 but has since leveled off, the growth of spending on equipment is still accelerating.

Finally, it is worth noting the increase in expenditures for military cooperation with foreign states.5 This budget line came virtually out of nowhere in 2022. In the first half of 2024, expenditure in this sub-chapter amounted to 270 billion rubles (around $3 billion). Before the fullscale invasion, the budget on military cooperation with foreign states was around 17 billion rubles annually. This increase is apparently related to the war in Ukraine. Taking into account how much Russia is spending on it, this could be connected to support by Iran or North Korea, although it seems puzzling that Russia would publish such a politically sensitive figure, and not classify it.

[...]

In recent weeks, oil prices have fallen rapidly and the outlook for Russian energy exports is weakening. Because of the war, Russia has not rebuilt its reserves in recent years, despite relatively high oil prices. This means that Russia could be vulnerable to an oil price crash. However, the effect of lower oil prices would be felt more in Russia’s external balance than in the federal budget, at least in 2024. As a result, the ruble could fall quickly, pushing up inflation again.

Tiden fortsätter att vara Ukrainas bästa vän. Ryssland säljer guld till Schweiz - där pengar inte luktar - och London. Detta är ett illavarslande tecken:

Resuming the @tochnyi coverage of the slow-motion disappearance of Russia's last piggy bank, the liquid part of the so-called National Wealth Fund.

There was a slight contraction of the value of the fund in dollar (-1.5%) but overall the net worth of the fund has remained stable

The stability of the fund since last January prompts four remarks:
1. it fits a seasonal patern of limited withdrawls in the first 10 months of the year (things get hairy when bills come due in December)
2. the absence of any replenishment show that the government is tight

[...]

But, as @Prune602 judiciously remarked a while back: market value, does not tell the whole story!

The volume of gold held by the NWF has been steadily diminishing since last January's big drop. More than 60t have been sold (18%).

If oil stays below $70 a barrel this is going to drop fast.

very very true, if, to cover the deficit, the Ministry has to withdraw >$30bn in December as they did at the end of 2022, that's the end of it.

But what's also interesting is that if gold returns to its Jan 2024 value, they will lose >10% of the value of the fund mechanically.

Looking like the price of oil is dropping and dropping fast. Many legit financial publications are predicting a prolonged downturn. Cause: diminishing world demand and Non-OPEC skyrocketing production.

Yes that's one of the truly weird aspect of this war: Russia is our commodity supplier, so the better we do, the better they do. But if we are in trouble, they will sink like stones. Hopefully political support to Ukraine can outlast an econ downturn

Riyadh have a choice to make now.
Keep losing market share globally and diminish their power, or increase production drive the price down and try to push others out of the market.
Right now it looks like they want to give up market share to maintain price.

exactly, I'm not quite sure how this would impact their relation with the US but to be frank I don't believe Riyad could have had a much more pro-Russian policy over the past 3 years.

Signaturen "(Ben) 本记明" har koll!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ja, här flödar propaganda, ohämmade spekulationer och grundlösa påståenden. Det är nästan som man tror sig förflyttad till förra sommaren då samma spinn från Enceladus-kollektivet omgärdade Ukrainas misslyckade offensiv.

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has triggered doubts among Russian elite, spy chiefs say

CIA director Bill Burns said Kursk was “a significant tactical achievement” that had boosted Ukrainian morale and exposed Russia’s weaknesses. It has “raised questions . . . across the Russian elite about where is this all headed”, he said.

[...]

On Russia, both men said there was no sign that Putin’s grip on power had lessened. But it would be wrong to “confuse a tight grip on power with a stable grip”, Moore said, especially as the Kursk incursion had “brought the war home to ordinary Russians”.

Both also said it would be wrong to take Putin’s threats of nuclear escalation lightly but that the west should not be unnecessarily intimidated. “Putin is a bully and is going to continue sabre-rattling from time to time,” Burns said.

[...]

Asked if Russian intelligence might be conducting similar sabotage operations against the US by abetting illegal migration across the Mexico border, Burns said: “It’s something we are very sharply focused on. Part of that is a function of so many Russian agents [being] kicked out of Europe. So they are looking for somewhere to go instead.”

Despite the threat posed by Russia and the risk of conflagration in the Middle East, both Burns and Moore stressed that their biggest challenge was China’s rise.

CIA-chefen William Burns och MI6-chefen Richard Moore håller inte med om skribentens narrativ, men skribenten kanske vet bättre själv. Luktar lite Mossad...

Ja, och det inledande citatet från mig kan återanvändas igen och igen och igen - tydligen i brist på egna formuleringar. Eller tankeverksamhet. Eller något liknande. Jag vet inte hur många gånger Enceladus-kollektivet har häftat floskeln "håller inte med" på div. yttranden från olika källor. Hur skulle f.ö. dessa underrättelsechef kunna säga någonting annat? Det vore ju direkt tjänstefel.

Fö. är det inte fråga om något "narrativ" (återigen en floskel) utan, som framgår av texten, en allmän karakteristik av Enceladus-kollektivets retorik.

"Luktar lite Mossad..."? Hur står det egentligen till på Jernkontoret?

[Enceladus]

Hur skulle f.ö. dessa underrättelsechef kunna säga någonting annat? Det vore ju direkt tjänstefel.

Är det då inte "direkt tjänstefel" av ryska militärbloggare att påpeka Ukrainas strategiska framgångar med Kursk-offensiven:

War correspondent Sladkov reports that he is shocked by the scale of economic losses that Russia is suffering in the Kursk region due to the invasion. According to him, hundreds of thousands of people have fled the region to save themselves, and this has a serious impact on businesses and even on neighboring regions.

Samtidigt får Ukraina mer "sovjetiskt skrot" från väst:

Portugal just successfully donated 6 Kamov Ka-32A11BC multi-role helicopters to Ukraine, with the final airframe leaving the city of Ponte de Sor for Ukraine on Friday.

Ukraine has experience operating the type, with the donated Ka-32s likely serving as useful utility birds.

Ryssland har några oväntade taktiska framgångar:

A very rare instance of a Orion UCAV Strike on a Ukrainian T-64BV tank.

Russians claim the strike was carried out by a Kh-BPLA Guided Missile, being guided by the onboard Laser.

Orion UCAVs, along with Bayraktars, are rarely used as they are big and slow targets for AA.

Men klockan tickar oavbrutet, oavsett om ryssarna leker med sjöminor!

Since the beginning of the year, Russians have taken around 920 square kilometers (355 square miles) in the Donetsk region. For comparison, in the Kursk region Ukrainian forces have taken around 1,150 square kilometers (445 square miles) in one month.

Ukrainian forces still control around 10,100 square kilometers (3,900 square miles) in the Donetsk region. If Russians keep that speed and no Ukrainian counteroffensive thwarts that plan, then it will take them around 8 years to take the whole Donetsk region.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Hur skulle f.ö. dessa underrättelsechef kunna säga någonting annat? Det vore ju direkt tjänstefel.

Är det då inte "direkt tjänstefel" av ryska militärbloggare att påpeka Ukrainas strategiska framgångar med Kursk-offensiven:

War correspondent Sladkov reports that he is shocked by the scale of economic losses that Russia is suffering in the Kursk region due to the invasion. According to him, hundreds of thousands of people have fled the region to save themselves, and this has a serious impact on businesses and even on neighboring regions.

Visst är det så. De får se upp, om de inte vill dela Girkins öde.

[Enceladus]

Vem som har tiden på sin sida? det kommer att visa sig med tiden. T.ex. den 7 november.

Falling Pump Prices Blunt Trump’s Inflation Attacks on Harris

A recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll showed that roughly three in 10 voters in battleground states consider fuel prices the most crucial economic issue for them. In a portent of what may be in store for retail pump prices, benchmark New York gasoline futures have slumped to a 3 1/2-year low.

Harris “is getting very lucky,” McNally said in an interview. “The most visible price in life is falling.”

[...]

“The timing looks pretty favorable,” DeHaan said. “We could see the national average falling under three dollars a gallon mark since the first time since Biden took the White House. We are talking about some metrics that American’s haven’t seen in a long time.”

MBS tycks göra allt för att Trump ska vinna valet, men det går inte vägen. USA pumpar mer olja än något land i historien. Samtidigt behöver Putin mer utsläpp:



Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 17 752 enheter, varav 3 368 stridsvagnar, 127 flygplan, 144 helikoptrar, 15 strids- och 424 spaningsdrönare.

Romania, Latvia report Russian drones breach airspace

Romania and Latvia, both supporters of Ukraine in its 2 1/2-year-old war with Russia, on Sunday were investigating instances of Russian drones downed after breaching their airspace, authorities in both countries said.

[...]

Lawmakers have yet to approve legislation enabling Romania to shoot down drones invading the country's airspace in peacetime, with plans to do so in the current legislative session.

[...]

"(Attacks) will continue. That is it, we have a war on the border."

Väst behöver ett starkare ledarskap. Biden och Scholz är byxrädda. Starmer och Macron är upptagna med interna problem. Blir Merz den fria världens ledare?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Blir Merz den fria världens ledare?

Tillsammans med Sahra Wagenknecht då?

[Enceladus]

Blir Merz den fria världens ledare?

Tillsammans med Sahra Wagenknecht då?

The EU buys too much defense equipment abroad, especially from the US, a major report says

The report notes that, between mid-2022 and mid-2023, 63% of all EU defense orders were placed with U.S. companies, and a further 15% with other non-EU suppliers. Last week, the Netherlands joined a list of EU members to order big budget U.S.-made F-35 warplanes.

[...]

Consecutive U.S. leaders have been exhorting European allies and Canada to spend more on defense for more than a decade, although former President Donald Trump was the only one to threaten to refuse to defend any country that did not respect the goal. Much of the money goes back to U.S. industry.

[...]

The report highlighted the shortcomings of countries investing in their national defense industry rather than joint procurement. When Ukraine appealed for artillery, for example, EU countries supplied 10 types of howitzers. Some use different 155 mm shells, causing logistical headaches.

Nej, tillsammans med EU-veteranen Mario Draghi. Hur många Taurus-missiler har Tyskland tillverkat under förbundskansler Olaf Scholz?

Att en iransk politiker säger någonting annat är betydelselöst. Tror någon att Iran officiellt skulle säga "vi vill ha Su-35 för missilerna". Innan det kan visas att Ukraina verkligen har attackerats med iranska missiler måste alla uttalanden betraktas som propagandaoperationer.

Ukraine summons Iran envoy to warn against missile supply to Russia

Iran is known to have sent Russia drones, but a provision of ballistic missiles would be seen as a serious escalation. So far, no such deal has been officially announced. "No missile was sent to Russia," Brigadier Fazlollah Nozari, a high-ranking IRGC commander said Monday, calling the allegations "psychological warfare".

On Monday, Kyiv warned Iran that confirmation of such missile deliveries would have "devastating and irreparable consequences" for bilateral relations. Senior Ukrainian official Andrii Yermak further called for Western support, suggesting that his country “must be allowed to destroy warehouses storing these missiles in order to avoid terror."

Iran’s growing support for Russia’s war effort has also been criticized in Tehran. On Sunday, a former Iranian lawmaker who used to chair of the committee on national security and foreign policy slammed Iran's arms sales to Russia as "the dirtiest example of Russophilia", warning that the leaders of the Islamic Republic are “dragging” the country “further into global conflict and sanctions which have led to the country's worst economic crisis” in more than four decades.

Iranier gillar att prata och ibland blir det för mycket!

Ukraine opens case against Iranian general for aiding Russia in war crimes

On August 26, a day after this announcement, Yuriy Bilousov, Head of the War Crimes Department at Ukraine’s Prosecutor General's Office, stated in a television program that the opening of this criminal case signifies that Ukraine now recognizes Iran as a party involved in the war on its territory: "In fact, Ukraine has informed the entire world and presented evidence showing that Iranian military representatives are participating in Russia's attack on Ukraine."

[...]

Kostin added that between September and October 2022, a group of military instructors from the Islamic Republic launched at least 20 attack drones in Ukraine's Dnipro and Mykolaiv regions, leading to the destruction and damage of civilian infrastructure protected under international humanitarian law.

[...]

The report also indicates that, in addition to Mollasaraei, seven other military personnel from the Islamic Republic who were sent as instructors to train Russian occupation forces in Ukraine and the occupied territories are facing similar charges.

Ukraina kräver att Iran ställs till svars. Annars kan Ukraina tvingas smutsa ner händerna, precis som förebilden Israel...

Riyadh have a choice to make now.
Keep losing market share globally and diminish their power, or increase production drive the price down and try to push others out of the market.
Right now it looks like they want to give up market share to maintain price.

exactly, I'm not quite sure how this would impact their relation with the US but to be frank I don't believe Riyad could have had a much more pro-Russian policy over the past 3 years.

Signaturen "(Ben) 本记明" har koll!

Oil’s new slump cuts across OPEC’s plan A

Oil’s supply-demand seesaw just took a lurch down. Brent crude prices have dropped from $81 a barrel to $73 since last week, driven by weak economic data and an apparent resolution to a Libyan supply crisis. That creates a headache for Haitham al-Ghais, secretary-general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

In varying degrees since 2016, OPEC countries have pumped much less than they could to prop up prices. Smaller members’ frustration with the bloc’s self-imposed cuts, including the voluntary 2.2 million barrels of daily production curbs on some members implemented in late 2023, explains why Angola quit the group in January. That’s pressuring OPEC to unwind some of the cuts, starting in October.

[...]

With supply in markets like the U.S. and Guyana set to recover in 2025, Ghais should arguably rethink his October plans, or even ready fresh cuts. But that wouldn’t just enrage junior OPEC members. Saudi Arabia, the group’s biggest producer, needs oil prices of $96 a barrel to balance its budget, the International Monetary Fund reckons, and that assumes Riyadh holds crude output at 9.3 million barrels a day, rather than its current 9 million. Ditching plan A would put a lot of noses out of joint.

MBS gillar inte Biden och vill ha höga oljepriser för att finansiera storslagna projekt, men Riyadh kan behöva en ny plan när andra - inklusive Ryssland - fuskar:

Overproduction continues to be a major issue, as the group struggles to shore up falling oil prices amid demand uncertainty, and high production levels outside the group.

[...]

Kazakhstan, alongside OPEC's Iraq, has produced well above its quota in 2024. The two have pledged to compensate for overproduction by the end of September 2025. Iraqi output in August was unchanged month on month at 4.33 million b/d -- well above its August quota of 3.93 million b/d.

Russia, the largest non-OPEC producer in the alliance, cut output by 50,000 b/d to 9.05 million b/d. This is above its quota of 8.98 million b/d. Production in Saudi Arabia, which has the same quota, was flat month on month at 8.99 million b/d.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Blir Merz den fria världens ledare?

Tillsammans med Sahra Wagenknecht då?

The EU buys too much defense equipment abroad, especially from the US, a major report says

The report notes that, between mid-2022 and mid-2023, 63% of all EU defense orders were placed with U.S. companies, and a further 15% with other non-EU suppliers. Last week, the Netherlands joined a list of EU members to order big budget U.S.-made F-35 warplanes.

[...]

Consecutive U.S. leaders have been exhorting European allies and Canada to spend more on defense for more than a decade, although former President Donald Trump was the only one to threaten to refuse to defend any country that did not respect the goal. Much of the money goes back to U.S. industry.

[...]

The report highlighted the shortcomings of countries investing in their national defense industry rather than joint procurement. When Ukraine appealed for artillery, for example, EU countries supplied 10 types of howitzers. Some use different 155 mm shells, causing logistical headaches.

Nej, tillsammans med EU-veteranen Mario Draghi. Hur många Taurus-missiler har Tyskland tillverkat under förbundskansler Olaf Scholz?

Jaså, ska Draghi bli pariledare i Tyskland?

Enceldus-kollektivet förstår säkert vad jag menar, men försöker i vanlig ordning blanda bort korten. Artikeltexten handlar f.ö. om att många europeiska länder - inte bara Tyskland - föredrar att köpa amerikanska vapen, istället för att underhålla en livskraftig europeisk försvarsindustri. Där har Scholz förvisso ett finger med i spelet, men han är inte en ende, som framgår av ovan. Dessutom har Scholz faktiskt beställt 20 nya Eurofighter Typhoon nyligen.

Se vidare: viewtopic.php?p=419552#p419552

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ukraine opens case against Iranian general for aiding Russia in war crimes

On August 26, a day after this announcement, Yuriy Bilousov, Head of the War Crimes Department at Ukraine’s Prosecutor General's Office, stated in a television program that the opening of this criminal case signifies that Ukraine now recognizes Iran as a party involved in the war on its territory: "In fact, Ukraine has informed the entire world and presented evidence showing that Iranian military representatives are participating in Russia's attack on Ukraine."

[...]

Kostin added that between September and October 2022, a group of military instructors from the Islamic Republic launched at least 20 attack drones in Ukraine's Dnipro and Mykolaiv regions, leading to the destruction and damage of civilian infrastructure protected under international humanitarian law.

[...]

The report also indicates that, in addition to Mollasaraei, seven other military personnel from the Islamic Republic who were sent as instructors to train Russian occupation forces in Ukraine and the occupied territories are facing similar charges.

Ukraina kräver att Iran ställs till svars. Annars kan Ukraina tvingas smutsa ner händerna, precis som förebilden Israel...

I den mån Iran ska "ställas till svars" rättsligt så får väl det ske inom ramen för ICC-systemet. Befinner sig Ukraina folkrättsligt i krig med Iran? Det kan diskuteras. Det faktum att Iran säljer vapen till Itan konstituerar inte entydligt det, lika lite som det vapenstöd Ukraina får från sina partnerländer (även om Putin försöker få oss att tro det). Inte heller rådgivare/instruktörer som befinner hos krigförande part, åtminstone inte så länge de inte agerar i stridande befattning. Åtminstone UK uppges ha, eller ha haft instruktörer i Ukraina för att assistera vid insatser med Storm Shadow.

Nu påstår Ukraina att iransk personal deltagit i direkt stridande operationer. För att det ska kunna dra in Iran som stridande part krävs att de på något sätt är del av en officiell militärmission. Tyvärr har det utvecklats en gråzon här efter WW2, där länder själva gör lite som de tycker och påstår. USA har, inte minst, bidragit till detta genom sina olika krigsäventyr, något som Putin tagit efter.

Att Ukraina - ett civiliserat land som respekterar folkrätten - skulle ha fascisten och krigsförbrytaren Netanyahu som förebild förefaller osannolikt, för att uttrycka sig försiktigt.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

MBS gillar inte Biden och vill ha höga oljepriser för att finansiera storslagna projekt, men Riyadh kan behöva en ny plan när andra - inklusive Ryssland - fuskar:

Overproduction continues to be a major issue, as the group struggles to shore up falling oil prices amid demand uncertainty, and high production levels outside the group.

[...]

Kazakhstan, alongside OPEC's Iraq, has produced well above its quota in 2024. The two have pledged to compensate for overproduction by the end of September 2025. Iraqi output in August was unchanged month on month at 4.33 million b/d -- well above its August quota of 3.93 million b/d.

Russia, the largest non-OPEC producer in the alliance, cut output by 50,000 b/d to 9.05 million b/d. This is above its quota of 8.98 million b/d. Production in Saudi Arabia, which has the same quota, was flat month on month at 8.99 million b/d.

ISW har en läsvärd översikt i sin dagsrapport för den 9/9: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ber-9-2024

[Enceladus]

Att Ukraina - ett civiliserat land som respekterar folkrätten - skulle ha fascisten och krigsförbrytaren Netanyahu som förebild förefaller osannolikt, för att uttrycka sig försiktigt.

FMV testar israeliskt vapen – oppositionen kritisk

Henrik Paulsson är doktorand på Försvarshögskolan, och forskar på drönare. Han har sett bilderna, och identifierar roboten som en Hero.

[...]

FMV och Försvarsmakten köper redan militärmateriel från det israeliska bolaget Elbit, det handlar om ledningssystem för 1,7 miljarder.

[...]

När det handlar om att köpa från israeliska bolag så säger FMV att man är en förvaltningsmyndighet som ”följer regeringens och EU:s inriktning vad gäller vilka länder och leverantörer som myndigheten har engagemang med”.

Är Sverige ett civiliserat land som respekterar folkrätten med nuvarande regering? Förr eller senare trillar väl polletten ned:

– Den ukrainska offensiven i Kurskområdet började med en massiv våg av patrullrobotar, spaningsdrönare och artilleri, som slog ut många ryska positioner, säger Henrik Paulsson, doktorand som forskar på drönare och innovation på Försvarshögskolan.

[...]

Henrik Paulsson på Försvarshögskolan tycker att försvarets drönarsatsning är välkommen, men senfärdig.

– Sverige rör sig på rätt väg, men är minst fem år bakom Ukraina eller USA. Vi har inte någon grundläggande förmåga på bredden.

[...]

Kriget i Ukraina har visat hur viktiga drönarna blivit. Små varianter släpper granater. Större störtar in i oljedepåer. Och de förändras snabbt: En ny version ser ut att låta brinnande termit, en vitglödgad metall, regna över fiendepositioner.

[...]

Marcus Norgren tror att Försvarsmakten kommer att behöva flera typer av de system som finns på marknaden. Det finns till exempel störpistoler till enskilda soldater, eller laservapen och mikrovågsvapen på fordon.

Striderna i Ukraina ger viktiga lärdomar, nämligen att vända sig till Israel.

Ukraine strikes Moscow in biggest drone attack to date

Ukraine struck the Moscow region on Tuesday in its biggest drone attack so far on the Russian capital, killing at least one woman, wrecking dozens of homes and forcing around 50 flights to be diverted from airports around Moscow.

[...]

"There is no way that night time strikes on residential neighbourhoods can be associated with military action," said Peskov.

"The Kyiv regime continues to demonstrate its nature. They are our enemies and we must continue the special military operation to protect ourselves from such actions," he said, using the expression Moscow uses to describe its war in Ukraine.

Den ryska medelklassen i Moskva får äntligen känna skräcken från skyn. En kvinna dödades, höghus brann och tre flygplatser stängdes. Hela världen hjälper:

Ukrainian forces have reportedly used 125mm shells from India, Pakistan, and Iran in their conflict with Russia.

Indian-made shells, originally supplied to the Czech Republic, likely reached Ukraine through NATO intermediaries like Poland or Germany.

Pakistan has also provided ammunition, including 125mm shells, to Ukraine via Poland, with UK logistical support.

Additionally, some Iranian munitions, possibly from seized shipments, have been spotted in Ukrainian hands.

Många vapensystem används inne i Ryssland:

The Ukrainian Air Force decided to follow up the Ukrainian Army’s HIMARS strike on the Russian mobile bridging unit over the damaged Seym River Bridge at Karyzh, Kursk Oblast.

Seen here, a US-supplied Ukrainian JDAM-ER glide bomb slams into the Russian bridge.

Hur ofta står Indien och Pakistan på samma sida i en konflikt?

[Enceladus]

Samma politiker hävdar att Iran redan har kärnvapen. Gör han bara propaganda eller utnyttjar Iran rädslan i USA och Tyskland samt kaoset i UK och Frankrike?

Det här är politik, och har inget i denna tråd att göra.

US confirms Russia received ballistic missiles from Iran

Russia has received short-range ballistic missiles from Iran and is expected to use them on the Ukrainian battlefield within weeks, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed Tuesday.

[...]

In exchange for the missiles, Blinken said Russia is sharing technology with Iran, including on nuclear issues and space.

The top US diplomat said the United States would be announcing sanctions Tuesday, including measures that target Iranian flag carrier Iran Air.

Patetiskt. Irans lager av anrikat uran fortsätter att växa, och väst nöjer sig med futtiga sanktioner mot Iran Air. Den fria världen förtjänar bättre. Bara ett år kvar...

Dessutom måste man ha tillgång till pålitlig spaning för att kunna få fram målkoordinaterna. Där har ryssarna ett taktiskt övertag med sin GRAD- och TOS-enheter, som har bättre yttäckning när det gäller att bekämpa anfallande infanteri. Nato har egentligen inga motsvarigheter till dessa vapensystem för markstrid, eftersom Nato-doktrinen bygger på att man ska kunna bekämpa fientliga markstridskrafter från luften. Den möjligheten har inte Ukraina. Under Ardennerslaget 1944-45 kunde det amerikanska artilleriet, när de hade hunnit gruppera sig, vid flera tillfällen bryta tyska anfall, men de erfarenheterna har tydligen lagts åt sidan. Att tyskarna kunde ha så stora framgångar under slagets inledning berodde, förutom det totala överraskningsmomentet, att det allierade flyget var handikappat av dåligt väder. Dagens flygstridskrafter är förstås inte lika väderberoende, däremot har ju luftförsvarssystemen förändrats oerhört sedan WW2.

Två år senare gäller den motsatta situationen:

FPV drones targeting Russian TOS-1 MLRS.