Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

Enkelt. Det ändrar ingenting.

Nja, kritiken växer på sociala medier:

@POTUS FYI KN-23 are North Korean supplied missiles that strike deep inside Ukraine. If you or Jake Sullivan need info on how they ended up in Russian hands, and eventually launched on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, just let me know.

Farkosterna flög hejvilt. En missil träffade floden Dnipro, en drönare kom in i Polens luftrum. Badhwar har dock varnat för att inte göra Sullivan till syndabock.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Enkelt. Det ändrar ingenting.

Nja, kritiken växer på sociala medier:

@POTUS FYI KN-23 are North Korean supplied missiles that strike deep inside Ukraine. If you or Jake Sullivan need info on how they ended up in Russian hands, and eventually launched on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, just let me know.

Farkosterna flög hejvilt. En missil träffade floden Dnipro, en drönare kom in i Polens luftrum. Badhwar har dock varnat för att inte göra Sullivan till syndabock.

Som tidigare sagt fäster jag inget större avseende vid vad som skrivs i asociala medier.

[Enceladus]

"The Insider" är ett propagandaorgan. Själv läser jag i så fall hellre ukrainska medier.

Publikationen The Insider har tilldelats många priser och utmärkelser för sin grävande journalistik.

Russian woman's killer released for second time to fight in Ukraine

A Russian murderer who was released from prison to fight in the war in Ukraine, only to then kill an elderly woman, has been released a second time to return to the front, according to relatives of the woman.

[...]

In April this year, 29-year-old Rossomakhin was found guilty of Yulia’s rape and murder and sentenced to 22 years in a high-security prison, later increased to 23 years. The court noted that the killing "involved extreme brutality".

But Anna says the prison governor has now notified the family that Rossomakhin was released on 19 August – just one week after the start of his sentence.

Är BBC ett propagandaorgan? Är dess dokumentärserie Planet Earth i själva verket antirysk propaganda eftersom Ryssland säljer mest fossila bränslen?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

"The Insider" är ett propagandaorgan. Själv läser jag i så fall hellre ukrainska medier.

Publikationen The Insider har tilldelats många priser och utmärkelser för sin grävande journalistik.

Russian woman's killer released for second time to fight in Ukraine

A Russian murderer who was released from prison to fight in the war in Ukraine, only to then kill an elderly woman, has been released a second time to return to the front, according to relatives of the woman.

[...]

In April this year, 29-year-old Rossomakhin was found guilty of Yulia’s rape and murder and sentenced to 22 years in a high-security prison, later increased to 23 years. The court noted that the killing "involved extreme brutality".

But Anna says the prison governor has now notified the family that Rossomakhin was released on 19 August – just one week after the start of his sentence.

Är BBC ett propagandaorgan? Är dess dokumentärserie Planet Earth i själva verket antirysk propaganda eftersom Ryssland säljer mest fossila bränslen?

Visst är det så. BBC är ju ett ryskt propagandaorgan: viewtopic.php?p=421440#p421440

Ovanstående kan innehålla spår av ironi.

[Enceladus]

Visst är det så. BBC är ju ett ryskt propagandaorgan:

Om nu brittiska medier, däribland ansedda BBC och The Guardian, anses vara propagandaorgan så kan jag istället hänvisa till saudiska Iran International:

Iran's new president signals risky move to raise gasoline prices

Officials report that the gasoline deficit has worsened this year. Additionally, Iran is grappling with the daily smuggling of 5 million liters (1.32 m gallons) of gasoline to neighboring countries, because of the cheap subsidized price.

[...]

Pezeshkian, without acknowledging the absence of new refineries and the inefficiencies of existing ones—where one-quarter of crude oil is still converted into low-value products like bitumen and mazut (six times more than modern refineries)—criticized the low gasoline prices. He lamented, "I don’t have money for wheat, I don’t have money for livestock inputs, I don’t have financial resources to pay retirees, yet we buy gasoline at a high price and sell it cheaply."

According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran had $52 billion in hidden petroleum product subsidies in 2022. This figure represents the difference between Iran’s consumer gasoline price and global prices, with gasoline accounting for about 25% of the total. In 2022, Iran ranked second worldwide, after Russia, with $127 billion in fossil fuel subsidies. The IEA has not yet published updated figures.

De neutrala saudierna skulle väl aldrig smutskasta ryssarnas energipolitik? Ukrainas ihärdiga drönarattacker mot oljedepåer kan emellertid gynna saudierna:

Ukrainian forces struck the Atlas oil plant in the Kamensky district, Rostov region, in Russia. At least two oil tanks are burning and more are about to be affected.

The local Russian regime authorities fear a similar scenario as in Proletarsk, where the fire is still raging.

Varför? Därför att Opec än en gång - till ingens förvåning - har överskattat efterfrågan samt att Ryssland - till ingens förvåning - struntar i att fullfölja sina löften:

Softer Chinese demand is mirrored elsewhere as geopolitical tensions and slower growth affect many regions. Global oil demand growth has slowed down over recent quarters even as some OPEC+ members, notably Russia, exceed OPEC+ output quotas.

Shipbroker Gibson notes that OPEC+ recently cut oil demand growth expectations to 2.11 million bpd this year, but so far this increase has not materialised. Further downward revisions to projections may be required and the issue casts doubt on the cartel’s forecast of a 1.78 million bpd demand increase in 2025. The broker notes that the International Energy Agency has a more moderate demand growth forecast of 0.95 million bpd for next year.

Meanwhile, Poten notes that more non-OPEC production has come on stream since the pandemic, with the US, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil increasing output and eating into OPEC’s share. More non-OPEC crude will hit the market in 2025: the International Energy Agency forecasts that supply is likely to rise by 1.75m bpd, significantly more than likely demand growth of 1.0 million bpd. Owners of smaller tankers will be closely watching developments in these non-OPEC countries where output is rising.

Samtidigt fortsätter resten av världen att pumpa upp mer olja - även det till saudiernas förtret. Kan det bli en ny Proletarsk i olycksdrabbade Rostov oblast?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Enceladus-kollektivet får väl hänvisa till vilka källor det vill.

Ovanstående kan innehålla spår av ironi. Jag har även kompletterat originalinlägget, eftersom innebörden tydligen var för svår att förstå.

Beträffande "neutrala saudier" och andra neutrala (t.ex. indier) såg jag en läsvärd essä från RUSI: Decoding Kursk: Is the End in Sight in Ukraine?

Neutrality in this war usually means being in favour of Russia. And victory for Russia would lead only to the conclusion that, as Yulia Tymoshenko, the former Ukrainian prime minister, explains to us, ‘Dictators International would be’. This has consequences for democrats everywhere, from Venezuela to Zimbabwe, as civilians struggle against authoritarianism.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

En ev. CDU-regering under Metz kommer att ha samma problem med ökande högerextremism och putinsm i Tyskland.

Germany’s far-left disrupter claims credit for limiting aid to Ukraine

The dilemma is most acute for the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has been steadfast in its support for Kyiv since the very start of the war and has frequently castigated Scholz’s government for not doing enough to help the beleaguered country.

But polls suggest the CDU will not be able to govern — in Thuringia at least — without the BSW as junior partner. Having ruled out co-operation with both the AfD and Die Linke, which at present leads a minority regional government, the CDU has few options left.

[...]

CDU leader Friedrich Merz initially banned any coalition with the BSW, describing Wagenknecht as “rightwing extremist on some issues, and on others, leftwing extreme”.

Merz har kategoriskt avfärdat att samarbeta med AfD. Däremot har han öppnat upp för hästskopartiet BSW.

Det kanske inte blir så lätt att hålla AfD ifrån sig. Det fanns en del svenska partiledare som en gång var kategoriska, de också:
Terrordåd i Tyskland spelar högerextrema i händerna

[Enceladus]

Det kanske inte blir så lätt att hålla AfD ifrån sig. Det fanns en del svenska partiledare som en gång var kategoriska, de också:

Vad har detta för bäring på kriget i Ukraina? Delstatsvalen som hålls i östra Tyskland berör inte landets utrikespolitik.

Michael Winiarski: Kennedy kan vara dåliga nyheter för Ukraina

USA är skyldigt till att ha provocerat Ukraina att kriga mot Ryssland. Ukraina måste ge upp de ockuperade områdena Krim och Donbass om det ska bli fred. Kriget började 2014 med att USA störtade den lagliga regeringen i Kiev och inledde ett dödligt inbördeskrig mot etniska ryssar i Ukraina. Men Putin har visat god fredsvilja. Och Ryssland kan inte förlora kriget.

[...]

RFK Jr. har också påstått att covid-19 skapades som ett biologiskt vapen och att vaccinering leder till autism. Dessutom har han hävdat att amerikanernas bristfälliga hälsotillstånd beror på en komplott mellan storföretagen och regeringen.

Pricken över i:et kom i somras, då han berättade att han för tio år sedan dumpade en död björnunge i Central Park i New York.

Det finns de som menar att alla dessa stolligheter har ett samband med hans mentala tillstånd. De påminner om att Kennedy under mer än 14 år var tung heroinmissbrukare. Han har själv berättat – året var 2012 – att han hade en sorts parasit i sitt huvud, en mask som käkat upp delar av hans hjärna innan den dog. Det hade lett till minnesförluster och dimmighet.

[...]

Men, som framgår av de inledande citaten, framstår Kennedy som ännu mer Putinvänlig än expresidenten.

Trumps omfamning av Putinvänliga konspirationsteoretiker har stor relevans för Ukrainakriget - liksom smittspridningen i världen om Kennedy blir hälsominister:

By historical comparisons, Kennedy, a famous anti-vaccine advocate and conspiracy theorist, would be an odd pick for HHS secretary. Previous appointees have had varied backgrounds in medicine, government, law and public health. The current secretary, Xavier Becerra, served as attorney general of California.

Kennedy, also an attorney, practiced environmental law and founded Children’s Health Defense, which is now the most well-funded anti-vaccine organization in the country. During the pandemic, he became the purveyor of wild conspiracy theories, often aimed at public health officials in the agencies he now seeks to lead. Kennedy has criticized Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, for Covid’s death toll and said Fauci should be prosecuted if he committed a crime. He has also said the attorney general should force editors of medical journals to publish retracted studies.

[...]

“The priority should be finding treatments that work and building people’s immune systems,” he said, falsely adding that “vaccines have probably caused more deaths than they’ve averted.” He mentioned ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine as treatments — which he says worked against Covid, even though numerous studies say they didn’t.

Se vidare skribentens egna inlägg om hydroxiklorokin. RFK Jr. är extremare än Trump i både hälso- och utrikespolitiken!

USA skalar upp granatproduktionen snabbare än väntat:

Assistant Secretary Bush says that 155mm ammunition production will reach close to 80,000/month this fall (Q1 FY25). The previous target was 70,000/m. He also adds it will exceed 100,000/m next summer; the current target for that is the end of the summer/end of Q4 FY25, so that may or may not be a revision to the schedule.

I edited the graph to show the revision. They are basically going to be ~9 months ahead of schedule for 80k/m.

Därför blir valet så viktigt för Ukraina!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det kanske inte blir så lätt att hålla AfD ifrån sig. Det fanns en del svenska partiledare som en gång var kategoriska, de också:
Terrordåd i Tyskland spelar högerextrema i händerna

Vad har detta för bäring på kriget i Ukraina? Delstatsvalen som hålls i östra Tyskland berör inte landets utrikespolitik.

Här försöker Enceladus-kollektivet spela okunnigt. Delstatsvalen kan på ganska goda grunder antas vara en förövning till nästa års förbundsdagsval. Då kan den av Enceladus-kollektivet halvt förgudade CDU-ledaren Merz få problemet i knäet.

Hur viktiga valen är understryks av att förbundskanslern personligen deltar i valrörelsen trots att det är först nästa år som det hålls val till förbundsdagen, det tyska parlamentet.

Scholz är inte den ende som fruktar att framgångar i de östra delstaterna ska hjälpa AfD till ett rekordval nationellt nästa år.

Än så länge finns en säkerhetsventil mot att AfD ska få vara med och styra lokalt eller på riksplanet. Alla övriga partier håller fast vid hållningen att inte ha något som helst samarbete med AfD.

Men det gör det också mycket svårare att bilda koalitioner lokalt. Delstaterna måste ju styras på något sätt.

Man skulle kunna tro att Tyskland med sin nazistiska historia skulle ha ett extra skydd mot högerextremism men så verkar det inte längre vara.

Lärdomen från Sverige och en rad andra länder ute i Europa är att det i längden är omöjligt att hålla ett parti som får 20-30 procent av rösterna utanför inflytande.

Till slut blir frestelsen att få makt genom att liera sig med de högerextrema alltför stor.

[Enceladus]

RFK Jr. är extremare än Trump i både hälso- och utrikespolitiken!

RFK Jr faces call for investigation into claim he chainsawed whale’s head off

An environmental group is calling for a federal investigation into the former presidential candidate for an episode in which he allegedly severed the head of a washed-up whale with a chainsaw – and drove home with it strapped to his car’s roof.

[...]

“Mr Kennedy’s apparent transport of the marine mammal skull from Massachusetts to New York, and therefore across state lines, also represented a felony violation of the Lacey Act, one of the earliest wildlife conservation laws enacted by [the] United States in 1900,” he wrote, adding that it was also illegal to possess part of any animal protected by the endangered species act.

[...]

But the story’s re-emergence, following the bear tale and other off-the-wall declarations – including claims that part of RFK Jr’s brain was eaten by worms and that he had an apparent fondness for barbecued dog – has angered activists at the Center for Biological Diversity Action Fund. The group previously denounced Kennedy’s candidacy and endorsed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris for president.

Jag har svårt att minnas en tokigare presidentkandidat:

In 2023, while still running as a Democrat, Kennedy appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast. There, Kennedy announced that wifi radiation caused something called “leaky brain”, which in turn causes cancer. Politifact spoke to scientific experts who disagreed, one of whom said there was no “clear evidence” for Kennedy’s claims.

Another claim from Kennedy, in June 2023, that chemicals in drinking water were causing children to become transgender, appears to come from a study which showed certain chemicals could cause some male frogs to become female. CNN’s KFile spoke to an expert who pointed out that sex in frogs is based on environmental factors, including temperature, whereas the sex of humans is not.

Tyvärr har hans konspirationsteorier kostat många liv:

Appearing in Shot in the Arm, a 2023 documentary about vaccine opposition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was asked about the deadly measles outbreak that occurred in Samoa in 2019 and claimed the lives of 83 people, mostly children. Kennedy, a leading anti-vaxxer who had visited the Pacific island nation a few months before the outbreak, replied, “I’m aware there was a measles outbreak…I had nothing to do with people not vaccinating in Samoa. I never told anybody not to vaccinate. I didn’t go there with any reason to do with that.”

Kennedy was being disingenuous, sidestepping his connection to that tragedy. Children’s Health Defense, the nonprofit anti-vax outfit he led until becoming a presidential candidate, had helped spread misinformation that contributed to the decline in measles vaccination that preceded the lethal eruption. And during his trip to Samoa, Kennedy had publicly supported leading vaccination opponents there, lending credibility to anti-vaxxers who were succeeding in increasing vaccine hesitation among Samoans. Moreover, in early 2021, Kennedy, in a little-noticed blog post, hailed one of those vaccination foes as a “hero.”

Nu är det förhoppningsvis slut på Kennedys äventyr, såvida han inte benådas av Trump och blir USA:s hälsominister...

Samtidigt fortsätter resten av världen att pumpa upp mer olja - även det till saudiernas förtret. Kan det bli en ny Proletarsk i olycksdrabbade Rostov oblast?

Ja, så verkar ju onekligen vara fallet här också:

/4. At about 11 p.m. local time, one of the three burning fuel tanks became depressurized. As a result, another, fourth tank caught fire. More than 200 people are currently trying to put out the fire.

Hoppas att övriga oljeproducenter visar lite tacksamhet!

Vad propagandakollektivet "Enceladus" tror om "stämningen" hos ryssarna hör inte hemma i denna tråd.

Skjut inte budbäraren - jag förmedlar bara information:

Russian voenkor Alexander Kharchenko posts about how Ukraine is successfully countering Russian ISR UAVs with FPVs.
He says Russia must take this problem seriously because it will threaten the effectiveness of artillery, glide bombs, Iskanders, and other fire support capabilities.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Vad propagandakollektivet "Enceladus" tror om "stämningen" hos ryssarna hör inte hemma i denna tråd.

Skjut inte budbäraren - jag förmedlar bara information:

Russian voenkor Alexander Kharchenko posts about how Ukraine is successfully countering Russian ISR UAVs with FPVs.
He says Russia must take this problem seriously because it will threaten the effectiveness of artillery, glide bombs, Iskanders, and other fire support capabilities.

Jag skjuter förstås inte på någon. Bra att detta hamnade i rätt tråd, jämfört med tidigare.

[Enceladus]

Även ryssarna befarar en ny Proletarsk i olycksdrabbade Rostov oblast:

The Russian fuel depot successfully struck by Ukrainian forces yesterday in Rostov continued to burn overnight, with a series of secondary explosions setting additional storage tanks on fire.

Russian authorities are reportedly highly concerned about losing the entire facility.

Passed the peak? China's crude oil imports trend down

Sales of passenger car NEVs exceeded those with internal combustion engines (ICE) in July for the first time, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

[...]

The move to LNG trucks has been sped up by the decline in LNG prices at a time when diesel prices have been kept relatively high by elevated oil prices, supported by output cuts from major exporters in the OPEC+ group.

[...]

Domestic oil production rose by 2.1% over the January to July period to 4.28 million bpd. While this is a modest gain, it shows that some imports are being displaced.

Kinas storsatsning på den gröna omställningen börjar äntligen bära frukt: Elbilar räddar Kina från import. Saudierna kan knappast vara nöjda med utvecklingen!

Russia Holds Rate as Attacks by Ukraine Spur Inflation Risks

The economic aftermath of «the events» in the Kursk region

Of course, in the context of Russia’s almost infinite territory, the Kursk and Belgorod regions may seem rather small: they account for only 0.3% of the country’s total area and 1.7% of its population. However, both have turned into major centres driving growth of the Russian agricultural industry over the past decades, ranking 1st or 2nd in pork, poultry and milk production, and classified among the Top 10 largest suppliers of sunflower, buckwheat and many other agricultural crops to the Russian market. Taken together, the Kursk and Belgorod regions accounted for 25.6% of total Russian pork production and 15.2% of poultry production before the war, and they topped the list of attractive ‘low-risk’ investment destinations. The livestock production in these regions has grown 2−6 times since 2010, putting the two administrative units among the main beneficiaries of the food embargo imposed in 2014. It is quite likely that if Ukrainian military units advance further, many pig and poultry farms could end up in the occupied zone (in the Belgorod region, about a half of them are located less than 30−40 kilometres from the border). The consequences for the Russian market are unlikely to be catastrophic, but under the prevailing policy of autarky, a 15−30% rise in meat prices in the central regions of Russia is almost guaranteed.

It should not be overlooked that the invasion by Ukrainian forces has also created serious problems in the transport sector. A large part of the Kursk and Belgorod regions are served by the Moscow Railway, which, due to the «federal-scale emergency» has experienced disruptions following the closure of some stations and routes. According to sources in the industry, the refusal to perform transport services has led to a massive accumulation of idle wagons and abandoned trains — the scale has been so high that the Russian Railways have already imposed restrictions on transport, also through the territory of Bryansk and Smolensk regions, thus seriously affecting the shipments from Belarus to Russia (and, notably, these restrictions have been imposed «until further notice,» i.e. indefinitely for the time being). Indeed, this is just the beginning of negative consequences for the logistics industry, since an increased pressure on the key transport routes connecting Moscow with the south via Voronezh will ensue as an indirect consequence. One way or another, it will take at least several months for the transport industry to adapt to the new reality.

As the Ukrainian army draws closer to the Kursk nuclear power plant (NPP), this poses an even more significant threat. Although major industry experts who recently visited the plant are talking about the expected timely completion of new power units, the situation does not look unproblematic. Even after the final decommissioning of the second power unit in January 2024, the Kursk NPP provides energy to 19 Russia’s regions, supplying 90% of the electricity consumed by the Kursk region, 76% by the Bryansk region and 70% by the Belgorod region. Also, the Mikhailovsky mining and refining facility, the Novolipetsk steel company, most of the Moscow Railway tracks and other major industrial enterprises in the region also depend on the Kursk power plant. Although it seems unlikely that the advancing Ukrainian troops may begin to occupy the plant (and direct strikes on the plant could provoke a disaster on an international scale), it is quite possible that long-range artillery and short-range missiles could strike the plant’s high-voltage transmission grids from a distance of 20−25 kilometres, which could provoke a power collapse in the entire Central Region of Russia. The potential effect would be incomparable to the campaign heralded this spring about strikes on Russian oil processing plants.

Dessutom orsakar Ukrainas Kursk-offensiv många negativa effekter på den ryska ekonomin, däribland en ökad inflationstakt. Nu är det dyrt att låna pengar:

The Russian MinFin had to borrow at rates it hasn't since 2002. The yield on the OFZ bonds with a fixed coupon maturing in May 2039 came in at 16.16% per year. Up 0,36% since the August 7th auction.

Vidare riskerar den ryska infrastrukturen att överbelastas:

According to the mayor, four arrivals were recorded in the city. Two residential houses and the railroad tracks of the Lgov-Kievsky station were damaged. There was also a fire in the warehouse of one of the city's factories. None of the residents were injured.

[Enceladus]

Svårförståeligt varför Ukraina nu inlåter sig i ett ordkrig med Rumänien. Tolkningen "Rumänien vill dock inte eskalera" bygger på att de ukrainska påståendena är korrekta, något vi inte vet något om. Här är istället en rumänsk nyhetskälla:

Belarus drar sig däremot inte för att eskalera:

According to @Hajun_BY, last night, during another Russian attack against Ukraine, one of the Shahed drones again flew into the territory of Belarus in Yelsk district. It happened at 03:30. 1/3

According to our data, after the drone entered Belarus’ airspace, a fighter of the Belarusian Air Force was chasing the intruder for about 20 minutes. At 03:55, at least 2 explosions were heard in Yelsk district of Homiel region, and a bright flash was seen in the sky. 2/3

Thus, this is probably the first recorded case of a Belarusian Air Force fighter attempting to destroy a real military target in the sky – a Russian Shahed-type kamikaze drone. 3/3

Detta är förmodligen första gången som det belarusiska flygvapnet är i strid. Samma sak kan inte sägas om Nato:

Belarus has officially shot down more Russian Shahed drones than NATO. Kind of embarrassing for all parties involved.

Varken Polen eller Rumänien har vågat skjuta ner ryska drönare - inte ens på sitt territorium! Polen ska få sitt första smygplan i december. Vågar Polen då?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

"De nya hökarna i Haag" är en propagandafloskel!

Biden Administration Rejects Plan to Send Americans to Ukraine to Maintain F-16s

Maintenance of the warplanes could prove crucial for Ukraine’s defense of its territory. Kyiv hopes the F-16s can prevent Russia from owning the skies and shoot down missiles launched at military and civilian infrastructure. Without civilian contractors servicing the planes—such as repairing and replacing parts—Ukraine will struggle to keep the Western-provided planes operational.

[...]

While some officials inside the Pentagon had expressed support for sending American contractors to do maintenance, President Biden, led by his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, was concerned the Defense Department lacked adequate plans to respond should those people come under attack.

[...]

“We support the Ukrainian government financially to make those contracts with private partners to see if they can hold the aircraft up and running in the future,” said Gen. Onno Eichelsheim, the chief of defense for the Netherlands, speaking to reporters in Washington on Wednesday.

Jake Sullivan slår till igen. Däremot kan Ukraina lita på de nya hökarna i Haag!

Oavsett bakomliggande orsak får Ukrainas flygvapenchef generallöjtnant Mykola Oleshchuk ta på sig ansvaret och tvingas därför avgå.

Gräset är inte grönare på andra sidan:

Popov is the eighth top military figure to be arrested on charges of fraud, bribery or abuse of office in recent months, including Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, who was arrested for bribery in April and later dismissed from his position. The arrests began shortly before Putin replaced Shoigu with an economist, Andrei Belousov.

[...]

Graft in the Defense Ministry “is so rife” that the choice of who is arrested will be informed by “internal turf wars,” said Richard Connolly, a specialist on the Russian economy and military at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

The arrests are “sending a message in a strategically important sector. But also offering the chance to settle some scores,” he said.

Dessvärre finns det en risk att Ukraina har liknande problem, men sannolikt i mindre omfattning.

Ovanstående bevisar bara mina ord - det mesta av vad som påstås här går inte att verifiera. Jag betraktar detta mer som en del av den psykologiska krigföringen, snarare än en redovisning av den faktiska militära kapaciteten.

Nya videoklipp fortsätter att publiceras:

Every day, more and more videos of Russian reconnaissance drones being intercepted by FPVs are being published. The total number of published videos alone already exceeds several hundreds.
It is also good that we see more high-altitude interceptions like here: Two interceptions of Russian Orlan drones at the altitudes of 2.6km and 2.3km.

/2. The video also shows the interception of relatively rare and valuable Orlan-30. The Orlan-30 has better optics among its analogues, and can also guide strikes of the Krasnopol laser-guided artillery shells

Som synes kan de senaste FPV-drönarna flyga ganska högt. Har Ukraina korsat Kinas röda linje?

Givetvis har ryssarna självgående färjor också PMM-2 (OBS tysk språkövning), som i den här propagandafilmen, frågan är bara om några av dessa finns på plats. Dnepr är som synes ett ganska stort vatten att ta sig över också.

Floden Sejm borde vara enklare att ta sig över än Dnipro, men ändå verkar ryssarna ha större problem där:

1/4 The Russian army constructed a 4th pontoon bridge across the Seym River in the Kursk oblast, near Zvannoye, 1.8 kilometers from the damaged main bridge (51.382030, 34.528200 @GeoConfirmed). It can be seen on @planet satellite image taken yesterday, on Aug. 26th

[...]

3/4 Ukraine has already targeted two Russian pontoon bridges across the Seym River: one between Zvannoye and Glushkovo, and another east of Glushkovo.

[...]

These videos, filmed in Zvannoye, Kursk Oblast, allegedly on Aug. 28th, show a destroyed convoy of at least six Russian engineering vehicles heading to 'fix' the previously targeted bridge across the Seym River.

Har FPV-drönare förändrat allt?

Ingenting gav ovanstående handlar om (ny) miltär teknik. Därför flyttar jag inlägget till dess rätta plats.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Russia summons Italian ambassador over journalists reporting from Kursk

Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Friday that it had summoned Italy's ambassador in Moscow over what it said was "illegal border crossing" by a team of correspondents from Italian state broadcaster RAI, who reported from Ukrainian-held parts of Russia's Kursk region this week.
The Italian foreign ministry told Reuters that the ambassador, Cecilia Piccioni, had explained to the Russian authorities that RAI and its news teams "plan their activities in a totally independent and autonomous way."

RAI on Wednesday aired the first foreign media report from the Russian town of Sudzha, which was taken in the opening stages of Ukraine's offensive against Russia last week.

Italienska reportrar från den statliga tv-kanalen Rai har korsat gränsen och tagit sig in i Kursk utan tillstånd.

Den mustaschprydde socialfascisten och diktatorn Maduro i Venezuela - Latinamerikas Lukansjenko - har låtit gripa och till Putin utlämna två kcolombianskja medborgare som stridit som frivilliga i Ukrainas försvarsmakt: Maduro’s gift to Putin: 2 mercenaries who fought for Ukraine extradited to Russia

Putin betraktar alla frivilliga av annan nationalitet som "mercenaries" - legoknektar.

Det här visar att alla som på något sätt ådragit sig Putins misshag, även om de inte blir måltavlor för FSB/GRU:s mordkommandon, lever farligt om de någon gång skulle besöka ett land som på något sätt är affilierat med Rysssland. Kanske t.om. Ungern eller Slovakien.

[Enceladus]

Russian fighters to leave Burkina Faso for Ukraine

Russia is withdrawing 100 of its paramilitary officers from Burkina Faso to help in the war in Ukraine.

They are part of about 300 soldiers from the Bear Brigade - a Russian private military company - who arrived in the West African nation in May to support the country's military junta.

[...]

There are fears the pull-out could embolden Islamist insurgents in Burkina Faso, who recently killed up to 300 people in one of the biggest attacks in years.

Jag tänkte säga att det inte går så bra för Ryssland i Ukraina, men detta handlar ju om Kursk-offensiven. Vad händer med alla proryska militärjuntor i Sahel?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det amerikanska försvarskonglomeratet RTX/Raytheons anställda verkar i varje fall ha varit ofattbart slarviga och bjudit både ryssar och iranier på militärteknisk information. Det kommer att kosta: State Department, RTX reach $200M settlement for export violations

"One incident, for example, involved a May and June 2021 trip to St. Petersburg, Russia where an employee carried along his RTX-issued laptop containing ITAR-controlled technical data related to at least five military aircraft. While there, he reported to the cybersecurity team several “alerts” that were “incorrectly dismissed” as false positives because of a transition to a new cybersecurity tool.

In another, an employee traveled to Iran and attempted to log into his computer while there. While RTX security caught the action and froze the laptop, it was determined that the laptop’s hard drive contained technical data on both the B-2 Spirit bomber and F-22 Raptor fighter — not the kind of data the US would generally want to leave its shores, let alone being present in Iran.

[Enceladus]

Irans tidigare utrikesminister Mohammad Javad Zarif instämmer i att amerikanska sanktioner blev president Raisi och utrikesminister Amir-Abdollahians bane.

The wreckage of a helicopter missing in Russia's far east is located and 17 bodies found

All those on board are presumed to have died, Russian state news agency RIA Novosti said, citing the Emergencies Ministry, adding that the helicopter had likely crashed due to poor visibility in bad weather conditions.

[...]

It said it believed that 19 passengers and three crew members were on board.

The Mi-8 is a two-engine helicopter designed in the 1960s. It is widely used in Russia, where crashes have been frequent, as well as in neighboring countries and many other nations.

Det kan vara farligt att färdas i en flera decennier gammal helikopter under dåliga väderförhållanden - fråga bara Irans tidigare president!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Kyiv is urging Washington to lift restrictions on using allied-supplied weapons to strike deep inside Russia. Kyiv argues such strikes would greatly impede Moscow’ s ability to continue its attacks on Ukraine.

Kriget eskalerar på grund av dessa röda linjer!

Hursom så är det tydligen dags att skramla med kärnvapnen igen: Russia to change nuclear doctrine upon examination of West’s actions — senior diplomat (TASS)

[Odd]

Kyiv is urging Washington to lift restrictions on using allied-supplied weapons to strike deep inside Russia. Kyiv argues such strikes would greatly impede Moscow’ s ability to continue its attacks on Ukraine.

Kriget eskalerar på grund av dessa röda linjer!

Hursom så är det tydligen dags att skramla med kärnvapnen igen: Russia to change nuclear doctrine upon examination of West’s actions — senior diplomat (TASS)

Läste det, men det är väl det som kärnvapen är till för, att skramla med.