Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

Houthi Attack Damages Shadow Fleet Tanker Carrying Russian Oil

Shortly after midnight local time May 18 reports began coming in that a tanker had been struck while heading south in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen. They are indicating that there was a fire aboard and damage to the vessel but it received assistance and was proceeding to an unnamed port.

U.S. Central Command is identifying the vessel as the Panama-flagged Wind (105,387 dwt) reporting that the crude oil tanker most recently docked in Russia and was bound for China. Databases reflect the vessel with registered owners in Cyprus and managed and operated from Greece.

[...]

It is unclear why the Wind was attacked. There are no apparent connections to Israel, the U.S., or the UK which the Houthi declared as the targets of their efforts. At the end of the week, the leader of the Houthi reiterated the threat against all shipping linked to Israel and again said they were expanding their range claiming unconfirmed attacks on Israel.

Med sådana vänner behöver Ryssland inga fiender! Antalet bekräftade förluster utgör 15 878 enheter, varav 3 036 stridsvagnar. Nu har västs granater kommit!

Alleged Ukrainian drones target occupied Crimea, oil facilities in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai and St. Petersburg

Overnight on 19 May, drones attacked an oil refinery and an air field in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai, while explosions were also reported across occupied Crimea. A fire also started at a Saint-Petersburg oil depot, with local authorities claiming it wasn’t due to a drone strike.

[...]

The HQ claimed that one of the drones “fell on the territory of the refinery” in Slavyansk-na-Kubani, and preliminary reports indicated that “there are no casualties or destruction, and no fires were recorded.”

Videos that emerged on social media show a powerful explosion at the facility:

Ännu en explosiv natt i Ryssland. Förr eller senare påverkas den ryska ekonomin av detta - utöver kriget och sanktionerna - oavsett hur mycket ryssarna ljuger.

The Kadyrov Regime in 2024

The Kadyrov regime relies on three pillars: use of force, which can be broken down chronologically by the monopolization of violence and typologically by actor type; federal support, which differentiates between stemming from Putin and from the other federal officials; and financial means, separated into how wealth is acquired and how it is stored. This piece concludes by demonstrating how these stabilizers are interconnected.

[...]

The regime’s capability for the use of force, federal support, and financial means are all related. The development of force simultaneously helps and hinders federal support, providing stability while undermining the Kremlin’s authority in Chechnya. Federal support blatantly adds to financial means via subsidies, while financial means then enables the use of force.

This structure of the Kadyrov regime—even more than any alleged conferment by Moscow—will determine how power is attributed in a post-Kadyrov Chechnya. Accordingly, this means that the regime’s stakeholders, both established and new, are the actors to watch going forward.

Samtidigt kan Rysslands uppmärksamhet behöva riktas åt ett annat håll...

[Enceladus]

Det surrar ju oerhört mycket rykten just inte bara kring Su-35 (de kan vi t.v. lämna därhär, det kan ju vara ren desinformation och det kommer ändå att visa sig).

How sanctions played havoc with Iran’s ageing helicopters

“Iran’s air fleet is a metaphor for the regime as a whole,” said Ali Ansari, founder of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews. “It’s old, should not be able to keep flying, and yet does — until it doesn’t.”

[...]

Much of Iran’s air force is even older than its civilian fleet and combines decades-old US aircraft, many of them bought in the 1970s, with Soviet-made planes and a few airworthy French Mirage F1s.

Western intelligence officials believe that Russia has this year been “advancing” secret agreements to supply Iran with advanced Su-35 fighter jets. But there is no evidence that any deals have gone through.

[...]

“Bell 212 and 412 are widely used helicopters with a very good safety record,” said Carlos Cesnik, professor of aerospace engineering at the University of Michigan. “But in any accident, operating conditions must be taken into account, with weather and maintenance being at the top of list.”

Irans tidigare utrikesminister Mohammad Javad Zarif instämmer i att amerikanska sanktioner blev president Raisi och utrikesminister Amir-Abdollahians bane.

Iran Analyst: Tehran To Blame Not US Sanctions for Helicopter Crash

Iran's former foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who was part of the administration responsible for the shooting down of Ukraine International airlines PS752 in January 2020, said the US sanctions on Iranian aviation were one of the main factors behind the crash.

[...]

Clawson said since the year 2000, there have been at 20 deadly crashes in Iran, killing more than 1700 people, and that figure is not including the shooting down of PS752.

"Out of those 20 crashes. Well, eight of them were US made planes. And nine of them Russian made planes or planes with license to the Russians. And three of them European planes. So there weren't any sanctions on the Russian?

[...]

"It’s well-known that the Islamic Republic has an outdated air fleet that uses parts purchased on the black market due to US sanctions. But this is the same government that believes in a “resistance economy” and prides itself on domestically made drones and missiles, which begs the question of why it hasn’t invested in aviation," said Dagres.

Ryska luftfarkosters facit är emellertid inte bättre, och Iran saknar egen produktion. Antalet bekräftade förluster utgör 15 920 enheter, varav 3 048 stridsvagnar.

Germany Warms to US Plan to Tap Frozen Russian Assets for Ukraine Funds

In an about face, German officials are ready to support a US plan to leverage the future revenue generated from frozen Russian assets — mostly stranded in Europe — to back $50 billion in aid to Ukraine, according to people familiar with the discussions.

[...]

But German officials don’t expect any final agreement until G-7 leaders meet June 13-15, nor implementation to take place until next year, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

[...]

Making some use of the frozen assets has become more urgent given the uncertainty surrounding the US election. Political divisions in Washington have already made it difficult for President Joe Biden to extend more aid to Ukraine, and his challenger, former President Donald Trump, has expressed skepticism about support for the embattled country.

[...]

The US is hoping all G-7 governments — or at least a subset of the group — will participate in providing the up-front loan, but officials said Washington is prepared to shoulder the entire loan on its own, as long as there’s sufficient commitment from the EU that the assets will remain immobilized and the loan repaid.

Det tar tid för väst att ge Ukraina frysta ryska tillgångar. Samtidigt fortsätter Ryssland att beslagta västerländska tillgångar utan att ta hänsyn till rättssäkerhet...

[Enceladus]

Det är naturligtvis struntprat, S-400 ska kunna bekämpa ballistiska missiler. Hur framgångsrika ryssarna är på den saken (eller ej) är beroende på en mängd faktorer, varav långt ifrån alla är kända.

Det ryska luftvärnet har misslyckats igen:

It is reported that ATACMS missiles hit the Russian S-300/400 air defense system in the area of ​​the Mospine village of the Donetsk region around 2:00 p.m.

At the point of impact, an inversion trace from anti-aircraft missiles, which were used to intercept cluster ATACMS, is visible

Ukraina bereder plats åt F-16-planen. Indien väntar alltjämt på det ökända luftvärnet, och Iran har visat intresse. Förresten, hur går det med Kinas beställning?

US contradicts Shapps claim that China and Russia are ‘working together’ on war in Ukraine

He told a defence conference in London: “An axis of authoritarian states led by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea have escalated and fuelled conflicts and tensions.

“They have increasingly been working together,” he said. “And today I can reveal that we have evidence that Russia and China are collaborating on combat equipment for use in Ukraine.”

[...]

Asked about Mr Shapps’ speech at the daily White House press briefing, Mr Sullivan replied: “We have not seen that to date. I look forward to speaking with the UK to make sure that we have a common operating picture.”

Vem har rätt? Notera att UK håller val redan i juli - på USA:s självständighetsdag. Om Kina är det nya Sovjet och Indien är det nya Kina, kan Indien bli nästa?

Den här artikeln i The WarZone ger i alla fall något mer kött på benen: Artillery Rocket-Firing Ukrainian Drone Boat Shown During Testing

De ostyrda raketerna förefaller vara 122mm raketer från det sovjetiska BM-21 Grad systemet. The WarZone är skeptisk till det militära värdet:

Icke desto mindre kan följande läsas i artikeln:

A series of imagery confirms that the widely used Sea Baby uncrewed surface vessel (USV), or drone boat, has been equipped with Grad-series artillery rockets. The rocket-armed boat has reportedly already been used to successfully engage Russian vessels. Once again, the development demonstrates that Ukraine is exploring using its growing fleet of USVs for missions beyond one-way kamikaze attacks, although there remain questions about the overall feasibility of the adaptation.

[...]

An unnamed SBU source told The Kyiv Independent that the rocket-armed Sea Baby drone has been used in combat “against Russian positions on the Kinburn spit,” a thin stretch of coastal land near Mykolaiv on Ukraine’s southern Black Sea coast. “This technological solution is already showing powerful results,” the source said, adding that “new surprises await the enemy.”

A video posted to YouTube claims to show a Sea Baby launching a rocket attack, perhaps the same one referenced by the SBU, but this cannot be confirmed. Certainly, the footage, apparently taken by an aerial drone in the vicinity, shows a salvo of approximately half a dozen rockets coming off the drone boat while it’s underway. The results of the engagement, and where the rockets impacted, is not clear.

Kanske det, men Ukraina uppges redan ha använt den aktuella plattformen i strid - dessutom med framgång. Att skrämma bort ryska piloter är också ett mål.

Ryska mysteriet – nyheten om flytten av gränsen försvunnen

Enligt Yles korrespondent Heikki Heiskanen försvann det ryska pressmeddelandet efter att en ”militärdiplomatisk källa” hade tillbakavisat planerna på att flytta gränsen för ryska nyhetsbyråer. Nyheten hade då redan fått stor spridning och sågs som ett tecken på en hybridoperation för att skapa förvirring och osäkerhet.

[...]

– Det här är en del av den nya situationen med Ukraina-kriget och Sveriges och Finlands deltagande i Nato, säger Jan Hallenberg, senior forskare på Utrikespolitiska institutet.

[...]

– Nato kommer aldrig godkänna ett sånt beslut. Då blir det som i Sydkinesiska sjön. Nato kommer att skicka krigsfartyg inom det område som de betraktar som internationellt vatten.

Överbefälhavare Micael Bydén betraktar det ryska agerandet som "ickelinjär krigföring". Var det ett misstag? Nu måste Europa kunna stå på egna ben, överallt!

Det är dock inte bara Trump som är ett problem - Biden tvingar Ukraina att kämpa med ena armen bakbunden.

Inside the White House, a Debate Over Letting Ukraine Shoot U.S. Weapons Into Russia

But the consensus around that policy is fraying. Propelled by the State Department, there is now a vigorous debate inside the administration over relaxing the ban to allow the Ukrainians to hit missile and artillery launch sites just over the border in Russia — targets that Mr. Zelensky says have enabled Moscow’s recent territorial gains.

The proposal, pressed by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken after a sobering visit to Kyiv last week, is still in the formative stages, and it is not clear how many of his colleagues among Mr. Biden’s inner circle have signed on. It has not yet been formally presented to the president, who has traditionally been the most cautious, officials said.

[...]

But officials involved in the deliberations said Mr. Blinken’s position had changed because the Russians had opened a new front in the war, with devastating results. Moscow’s forces have placed weapons right across the border from northeastern Ukraine, and aimed them at Kharkiv — knowing the Ukrainians would only be able to use non-American drones and other weaponry to target them in response.

Flera tunga namn inom republikanerna - inklusive Michael McCaul och Mike Johnson - har kritiserat Biden för att Ukraina inte får attackera mål inne i Ryssland.

[Enceladus]

Ukraina bereder plats åt F-16-planen. Indien väntar alltjämt på det ökända luftvärnet, och Iran har visat intresse. Förresten, hur går det med Kinas beställning?

En färsk video på sociala medier bekräftar förstörelsen av ett ryskt luftvärnssystem:

Yesterday, Ukrainian forces successfully hit and destroyed a Russian S-400 battery with at least one MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missile in Donetsk Oblast.

1x 96L6E radar destroyed
2x TELs destroyed
1x likely 55K6E command post destroyed
1x TEL heavily damaged

[...]

H/T to @ThreeCalories, it looks like Ukrainian forces, for the first time, destroyed a component of a Russian S-350 SAM system.

Appears that the S-400 battery was using an upgraded 96Л6-ЦП radar instead of the standard 96L6E.

Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 15 945 enheter, varav 3 054 stridsvagnar. Ovan nämnda länder hänvisas till andra återförsäljare, företrädesvis från väst!

Överbefälhavare Micael Bydén betraktar det ryska agerandet som "ickelinjär krigföring". Var det ett misstag? Nu måste Europa kunna stå på egna ben, överallt!

Estonia Says Russia Removed Border Markers as Tensions Rise

The border guard service of the Baltic nation accused Russian officials of carrying off 24 of 50 buoys helping to separate the two countries on the waterway at 3 a.m. local time, according to a statement. The markers had been placed within Estonian waters by authorities over the last 10 days.

[...]

The incident comes a day after a Russian Defense Ministry proposal to modify the country’s Baltic Sea border and territorial waters prompted vocal responses from Lithuania and Finland. The document outlining the draft proposal was later removed from a government website without explanation.

The Narva River border had been a matter of dispute earlier this year, when Russia said it didn’t accept the location of half of the 250 buoys proposed by Estonian officials, the border guard statement said. The floating markers, positioned each spring, are used for boats to navigate the river without veering into Russian waters.

Ryssland beter sig som ett barn som kräver uppmärksamhet. Dessa handlingar gör det tydligt att landet behöver hållas i schack, helst redan i Ukraina!

Appearance of Ukrainian Drones in Tatarstan Closes Airports and Enterprises

This led to the mass evacuation of the Taneco oil refinery, the Orgsintez plant, Taif-NK, and several other enterprises which, according to the Shot Telegram channel, included staff from the Nizhnekamsk thermal power plant.

[...]

In April Ukraine's Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR) carried out strikes aimed at the Yelabuga drone assembly plant and an oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, more than 1,200 kilometers (745 miles) from Ukraine.

On Wednesday, May 15 the Kazan and Nizhnekamsk airports were again closed following the shooting down of a Ukrainian attack drone by Russian air defenses.

Ukraina låter inte heller Ryssland pusta ut. Världens största land har ju ett enormt behov av luftvärn!

Gazprom loss shows struggle to fill EU gas sales gap with China

After Getting The Red Card From UEFA, Gazprom Is Getting Back In The Sports Sponsorship Game

But business largely dried up for the state-controlled firm after Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Sales in Europe have collapsed, and Gazprom just reported its first annual loss.

[...]

Red Star Belgrade, a soccer powerhouse in Kremlin-friendly Serbia, has refused to cut its ties to Gazprom.

And now FC Ferencvaros, the top soccer team in Hungary, a country that also often sides with Putin's Russia, is reportedly on the verge of their own lucrative sponsorship deal with Gazprom.

Har Gazprom fortfarande råd med marknadsföring?

[Enceladus]

Ja, oss gamlingar är det inte så lätt att bli av med

Putin’s Ultraconservative Personnel Policy Is Hamstringing the Power Vertical

Putin’s conservatism in his personnel decisions is leading to three obvious problems for the power vertical. The first is intense disappointment for the ambitious bureaucrats who are working diligently for the system but are left on the bench. Why exert yourself if the post you aspire to will be occupied for years to come by someone familiar to Putin, during which time the number of contenders for that seat will only increase? Oreshkin and Dyumin may yet progress up the ladder, but with every year that passes, a major promotion becomes increasingly unlikely.

Secondly, the abundance of potential candidates for a given position makes the president’s personnel decisions increasingly arbitrary, which undermines the effectiveness of the system as a whole. The appointment of Belousov as defense minister is just one example of this kind of controversial decision: it’s far from guaranteed that an economic theorist can handle even the economic side of the defense ministry.

Thirdly, with the system even refusing to accept people’s resignations, there is a growing cancerous tumor in personnel appointments that is now impacting the functioning of the state. These processes make it difficult for influential figures to navigate the system. It has become very crowded at the top of the vertical, with responsibility for the same issue being shared by ministers and presidential aides, deputy prime ministers and the heads of state corporations, and the government and the presidential administration. Elements of authority are scattered among different functionaries, and decisionmaking centers are amorphous.

Var det verkligen värre under Brezjnev? Lavrov hinner fylla 80 år innan nästa mandatperiod börjar, och vem vet hur många perioder till det blir för stackarn?

Why is Putin purging his generals?

Before defence minister Sergei Shoigu was given his sideways move to become secretary of the security council, deputy minister Timur Ivanov had already been arrested. He was followed in quick succession by Lt. Gen. Yury Kuznetsov, head of the ministry’s personnel directorate, the former head of the 58th Army Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, Lt. Gen. Vadim Shamarin, head of the main communications directorate, and most recently (as of writing: watch this space!) Vladimir Verteletsky, a senior procurement officer. To lose one member of your top brass may be carelessness, to lose five looks like a purge.

[...]

This is certainly part of the remit given to new defence minister Andrei Belousov: not only to connect the civil and defence economies more closely together – to strengthen the latter – but to bring greater discipline to the military budget. At a time when every rouble is needed for the war effort, the massive levels of waste and fraud within the defence ministry is not just an embarrassment, it is a security threat. The last official figures from the Main Military Prosecutor, admitted from years ago, suggested fully 40 per cent of procurement funds were embezzled, for example.

[...]

To a degree, then, this current purge – which is unlikely to be over – is likely performative, a high-profile demonstration that there is a new sheriff in town and everyone better mend their ways. The fact that it is being carried out by DVKR, the FSB’s Military Counterintelligence Service, with Putin’s blessing and Belousov’s approval, is not, as some suggest a sign that the spooks are trying to rein in the soldiers, so much as that this is something that comes from the top of the system. There is always a place for the performative in politics, but the real challenge is moving on to change the underlying culture, not least as Putin’s whole system is a kleptocracy.

Sjojgu är undantaget som bekräftar regeln, och hans efterträdare är knappast ung. Om Putin vill minska korruptionen så måste han dock börja med sig själv!

Även detta saknar relevans för tråden. Möjligen bortsett från det faktum att Ryssland inte kan förse Iran med moderna luftfartkoster. Men det visste vi ju redan tidigare.

President Raisi’s Death Shows the Russia-Iran Partnership Is Inescapable

It’s true that Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, who also died in the crash, were stalwart supporters of improving Iran’s ties with Russia. It was one of Raisi’s priorities from the very beginning of his presidency, and he selected Moscow for one of his first foreign trips in 2022. While that visit did not result in any dramatic agreements, ultimately, there was a historic breakthrough in the relationship under Raisi. That included a $40 billion agreement for state-owned gas giant Gazprom to invest in the Iranian oil and gas sector, another for Russia to construct the Rasht-Astara railroad that will complete the North-South Transport Corridor linking Russia to the Persian Gulf, and another to set up a full-fledged free trade zone between Iran and the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union.

[...]

While major intergovernmental agreements between Russia and Iran are often accompanied by a lot of hype, they are generally far less significant in practice. The multi-billion dollar Gazprom investment in Iran, for example, has not yet seen any significant progress on the ground. Similarly, construction work on the Rasht-Astara railroad has yet to get under way.

The exception is the defense sector. Iran is supplying Russia with huge numbers of drones and other equipment, including shells, bullets, body armor, and anti-tank weapons. Russia has even set up its own facility to localize the production of Iranian drones. It’s true that the exact volume of arms and equipment being bought by Moscow is unknown, since the trade information released by both countries does not include military goods. It could be anything from a few million dollars to a few billion.

Stämmer det verkligen? Populisten Ahmadinejad, som häromveckan besökte Ungern, uppges ställa upp i nästa val, och han har en hel del att säga om Putin...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Även detta saknar relevans för tråden. Möjligen bortsett från det faktum att Ryssland inte kan förse Iran med moderna luftfartkoster. Men det visste vi ju redan tidigare.

President Raisi’s Death Shows the Russia-Iran Partnership Is Inescapable

It’s true that Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, who also died in the crash, were stalwart supporters of improving Iran’s ties with Russia. It was one of Raisi’s priorities from the very beginning of his presidency, and he selected Moscow for one of his first foreign trips in 2022. While that visit did not result in any dramatic agreements, ultimately, there was a historic breakthrough in the relationship under Raisi. That included a $40 billion agreement for state-owned gas giant Gazprom to invest in the Iranian oil and gas sector, another for Russia to construct the Rasht-Astara railroad that will complete the North-South Transport Corridor linking Russia to the Persian Gulf, and another to set up a full-fledged free trade zone between Iran and the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union.

[...]

While major intergovernmental agreements between Russia and Iran are often accompanied by a lot of hype, they are generally far less significant in practice. The multi-billion dollar Gazprom investment in Iran, for example, has not yet seen any significant progress on the ground. Similarly, construction work on the Rasht-Astara railroad has yet to get under way.

The exception is the defense sector. Iran is supplying Russia with huge numbers of drones and other equipment, including shells, bullets, body armor, and anti-tank weapons. Russia has even set up its own facility to localize the production of Iranian drones. It’s true that the exact volume of arms and equipment being bought by Moscow is unknown, since the trade information released by both countries does not include military goods. It could be anything from a few million dollars to a few billion.

Stämmer det verkligen? Populisten Ahmadinejad, som häromveckan besökte Ungern, uppges ställa upp i nästa val, och han har en hel del att säga om Putin...

Ja, det stämmer, eftersom Iran-inlägget från början hamnat i den militärtekniska tråden, pga. Enceladus-kollektivets tankeoreda:
viewtopic.php?p=419957#p419957

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Var det verkligen värre under Brezjnev? Lavrov hinner fylla 80 år innan nästa mandatperiod börjar, och vem vet hur många perioder till det blir för stackarn?

Ja, det var det, eftersom Brezjnev söp hårt: viewtopic.php?p=419509#p419509

Andropov, som de facto styrde, var ännu mer paranoid än Putin. Då var det nära kärnvapenkrig.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

En intervju med den estniske EU-parlamentarikern Urmas Paet: Larmar om trojanska hästar i parlamentet: ”Kan bli farligt”

om hur Europas fascister och putinister flyttar fram positionerna

– Det finns mycket värre saker som pågår framför våra ögon år efter år utan att någon verkar bry sig, dundrar han. Jag tänker på de omkring hundra parlamentariker som ständigt röstar på ett sätt som gynnar Rysslands intresse. Bland annat röstar de mot ryska sanktioner och mot vapenhjälp till Ukraina.

I praktiken ser han dem som Rysslands trojanska hästar mitt inne i Europas beslutscentra medan ett krig där Europas frihet står på spel utkämpas.

– Främst handlar det om det tyska högerextrema partiet AfD där över hälften av ledamöterna företräder Rysslands intressen. Franska Nationell Samling med Marine Le Pen är ett annat parti där många av ledamöterna driver en rysk agenda. Givetvis hör ungerska Fidez till samma grupp.

Men ryssvänligheten finns även på vänsterkanten, hos partier som Syriza i Grekland.

– Det verkar som de gamla kommunistpartierna fortfarande tror att Ryssland driver samma ideologi som på Sovjetunionens tid. De gamla lojaliteterna sitter kvar.

Det sistnämnda har vi sett även på hemmaplan, med Putin-vänliga vänsterextremister som Knut Lindelöf, vilket styrker mig i min uppfattning att det egentligen inte är någon större skillnad mellan vänster- och högerextremism. Inte ens den av ett visst propagandakollektiv halvt förgudade Giorgia Meloni är att lita på. Hon toppar vallistan för EU-valet – men tänker inte sätta sig i Bryssel



Ja, det ska bli intressant att se utfallet av valet till EU-parlamentet. Det kan, åtminstone på sikt, bli lika avgörande som det amerikanska presidentvalet.

[Enceladus]

Ja, det ska bli intressant att se utfallet av valet till EU-parlamentet. Det kan, åtminstone på sikt, bli lika avgörande som det amerikanska presidentvalet.

Annika Ström Melin: Frankrikes nya högerextrema stjärna borde göra alla européer mörkrädda

Därför går tankar redan nu till Frankrikes presidentval 2027. Nationell samling använder EU-valen som en trampolin och om tre år siktar Marine Le Pen åter på att bli landets president. Förhoppningsvis kan franska väljare fortfarande – när det kommer till kritan – inte tänka sig att låta en företrädare för tidigare Nationella fronten leda Frankrike, men partiets bakgrund som samlingspunkt för gamla nazister och fascistiska våldsverkare tycks inte vara lika avskräckande som förut. Om tre år är dessutom Emmanuel Macron ute ur leken och någon tillräckligt stark eventuell efterträdare på posten som EU-vänlig fransk president syns inte till.

[...]

EU-valet kommer inte att leda till ett maktövertagande av Jordan Bardella och hans europeiska vänner. Den demokratiska högern (EPP) och vänstern (S&D) väntas fortfarande bli Europaparlamentets största partier och en ny kommissionsordförande kan antagligen inte utses utan någon form av uppgörelse mellan partierna i Europas politiska mitt. För Ursula von der Leyen räcker det inte med högerns och delar av extremhögerns stöd.

[...]

Under debatten i fransk tv slås jag av att Nationell samlings nya stjärna verkar helt obesvärad när Valérie Hayer påminner honom om att hans parti grundades av Jean-Marie Le Pen, som avfärdade Förintelsens gaskamrar som en ”historisk detalj”. Marine Le Pen har åtminstone brukat se plågad ut när pappa kommer på tal.

Nja, de flesta sonderingar pekar på marginella förändringar i EU-parlamentet. Förvisso försöker Le Pen genom att slåss om Meloni och bryta med nazisterna i AfD, men det räcker inte. Det stora orosmolnet är emellertid Frankrikes presidentval 2027. Innan dess hinner dock Frankrike träna många soldater i Ukraina.

North Korea says its latest satellite launch exploded in flight

North Korea said its attempt to launch a new military reconnaissance satellite ended in failure on Monday when a newly developed rocket engine exploded in flight.

The attempt came just hours after Pyongyang issued a warning that it would try to launch a satellite by June 4, in what would have been its second spy satellite in orbit.

Instead, the launch became the nuclear-armed North's latest failure, following two other fiery crashes last year. It successfully placed its first spy satellite in orbit in November.

Skulle inte Ryssland hjälpa Nordkorea med detta?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ja, det ska bli intressant att se utfallet av valet till EU-parlamentet. Det kan, åtminstone på sikt, bli lika avgörande som det amerikanska presidentvalet.

Annika Ström Melin: Frankrikes nya högerextrema stjärna borde göra alla européer mörkrädda

Därför går tankar redan nu till Frankrikes presidentval 2027. Nationell samling använder EU-valen som en trampolin och om tre år siktar Marine Le Pen åter på att bli landets president. Förhoppningsvis kan franska väljare fortfarande – när det kommer till kritan – inte tänka sig att låta en företrädare för tidigare Nationella fronten leda Frankrike, men partiets bakgrund som samlingspunkt för gamla nazister och fascistiska våldsverkare tycks inte vara lika avskräckande som förut. Om tre år är dessutom Emmanuel Macron ute ur leken och någon tillräckligt stark eventuell efterträdare på posten som EU-vänlig fransk president syns inte till.

[...]

EU-valet kommer inte att leda till ett maktövertagande av Jordan Bardella och hans europeiska vänner. Den demokratiska högern (EPP) och vänstern (S&D) väntas fortfarande bli Europaparlamentets största partier och en ny kommissionsordförande kan antagligen inte utses utan någon form av uppgörelse mellan partierna i Europas politiska mitt. För Ursula von der Leyen räcker det inte med högerns och delar av extremhögerns stöd.

[...]

Under debatten i fransk tv slås jag av att Nationell samlings nya stjärna verkar helt obesvärad när Valérie Hayer påminner honom om att hans parti grundades av Jean-Marie Le Pen, som avfärdade Förintelsens gaskamrar som en ”historisk detalj”. Marine Le Pen har åtminstone brukat se plågad ut när pappa kommer på tal.

Nja, de flesta sonderingar pekar på marginella förändringar i EU-parlamentet. Förvisso försöker Le Pen genom att slåss om Meloni och bryta med nazisterna i AfD, men det räcker inte. Det stora orosmolnet är emellertid Frankrikes presidentval 2027. Innan dess hinner dock Frankrike träna många soldater i Ukraina.

"Sonderingar" kan man torka sig med någonstans. Vore det annorlunda behövde vi inte genomföra några val. Just nu är allt annat spekulationer. Jag skrev dessutom "kan", inte "kommer", eftersom jag inte tror mig om att kunna förutsäga framtiden, hur mycket än Enceladus-kollektivet försöker vrida till det.

Observera att Urmas Paet i huvudsak uttalar sig om befintlig situation.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Försök att för en gångs skull att låta bli att prata strunt. Inget vapensystem kan garantera någonting. I synnerhet inte som Ukraina har alldeles för få Patriot- eller SAMP/T-system för någonting sådant.

NATO Considers Defending Skies Over Western Ukraine - BILD

The idea of protecting Western Ukraine’s airspace with NATO anti-aircraft systems is also under consideration. Poland has proposed this “expanded air defense,” but no final agreement has been reached yet.

These discussions reflect the ongoing efforts within NATO to balance support for Ukraine with the complexities of direct involvement in the conflict.

President Volodymyr Zelensky believes NATO should intercept Russian missiles over Ukraine without entering Ukrainian airspace.

Ukraina har kanske inte många avancerade LV-system, men det har Nato. Det här är kriget som Nato köpte all denna militära utrustning för. Då ska det brukas.

Jag flyttar detta hit, eftersom detta är en politisk snarare än en militärteknisk fråga.

Att LV-batterier i angränsande Nato-länder - då företrädesvis Polen och Rumänien (Fico, i den mån han kommer att stiga upp ur sjuksängen, och Orban kommer ju inte att lägga två strån i kors) - skulle angripa ryska missiler i ukrainskt luftrum? Primärkällan till ovanstående påståenden är väl den här: https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und ... 192f51bc7e

Det är ju ett ukrainskt önskemål som framförts ända sedan den israelisk-iranska missilduellen, senast här:
Zelenskyy calls for NATO nations to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine

Det har förekommit oerhört mycket politiska kannstöperier om detta, varav i Polen anser man i alla fall - på vissa håll - att detta skulle vara en direkt inblandning i konflikten, och potentiellt ge Ryssland en anledning till angrepp. Expert: Defending Ukrainian Airspace with Assets Stationed In Poland Would Mean Involvement in the Conflict

The potential use of air defence systems stationed in Poland, to neutralize targets in the Ukrainian Airspace, would mean active involvement in the conflict - this is how former Air Force Inspector, Brig. General (res.) Tomasz Drewniak expressed his opinion on the statement made by the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs. A similar assessment has been made by Andrzej Grzyb, Chairman of the Parliamentary National Defence Committee.

Brig. General (res.) Tomasz Drewniak noted that although technically feasible, politically it would translate into NATO becoming a part of the armed conflict. „Three aspects need to be distinguished here - purely technical, military, and political. To make the air defence systems effective, it would be desirable for them to receive early warning radar data, allowing them to prepare. This means, for those systems to function well, that the whole Ukrainian radar system should be plugged into the NATO system, or our radars should be deployed in the Ukrainian territory, to ensure higher levels of lethality. Of course, these may be arranged along the border, but the effectiveness would be much lower then”, Drewniak told Defence24.pl.
[..... ]

“Technically this is feasible, but when it comes to military and political aspects, I cannot imagine a situation in which NATO, as essentially we mean the Alliance here, provides air defence coverage for Ukraine. This would translate into NATO joining the war, as the first downing of a Russian aircraft, or any other flying system, automatically sees NATO joining the war”, Expert at Stratpoints noted.

Om detta är i överensstämmelse med folkrätten övergår mitt kunnande. Oavsett hur har jag ju min personliga uppfattning klar: viewtopic.php?p=419538#p419538

[Enceladus]

Sedan kan man ju titta på sammanfattningar också. Som ex.vis från de indiska putinisterna i Hindustan Times (värre än t.o.m. putinisten Prakash Nanda och hans flaggskepp EurAsian Times). Här kan man snacka om "neutrala indier". Hindustan Times är så pass motbjudande att jag inte lämnar någon referens. Man får söka själv, om intresse finnes.

Samtidigt fortsätter Indien att stödja Ukraina militärt:

The first recorded appearance of 125-mm high-explosive shells of Indian production (SHEll 125-mm HE) in service with Ukraine.

Jakub Janovsky får kanske rätt igen: Vill Indien verkligen ha Rysslands S-400 när landet äntligen kan leverera?

India is set to receive the remaining two regiments of S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile systems from Russia by next year. This new timeline comes after some delays in supplies due to the war in Ukraine. Russia has already delivered three units of the long-range missile systems to India under a USD 5.5 billion deal.

[...]

According to sources, the deliveries of the S-400 missile systems will be completed by next year. India is acquiring these systems to bolster its air power capabilities, primarily to address security challenges from China.

[...]

The deal for the S-400 cost Turkey an estimated $2.5 billion, but it has indirectly cost far more in losses of over $9 billion from manufacturing over 900 parts for the global F-35 supply chain. Washington banned Ankara from buying F-35s over concerns of sharing data with Russian technicians, spoiling the fighter's stealth. The US also imposed sanctions on Turkey's arms procurement agency.

Det gick visst inte heller så bra för Turkiet...

​Ukrainian Forces Show the FrankenSAM Project System for the First Time (Photos)

Key insights into the FrankenSAM project reveal that the launch mechanism of the Buk system has remained largely original, with minor modifications. It now accommodates the same number of the RIM-7 missiles in transport-launch containers as it did with the Soviet-era 9M38 missiles.

Additionally, photos reveal that the radar equipment of the 9A310 has seen no significant changes, with the radome of the 9S35 radar station intact. It remains uncertain whether the original Soviet radar system, responsible for detection, tracking and target illumination, has been replaced or upgraded.

[...]

The effectiveness of the FrankenSAM is further highlighted by the markings of destroyed targets visible in the photo – two reconnaissance UAVs and the Lancet drone. This indicates the system’s capability to neutralize even small, agile targets.

Som bekant är västerländsk teknologi vida överlägsen, och Indien behöver ju hålla jämna steg med Kina!

OPEC heavyweights are cheating on their targets

OPEC and its allies have two types of cuts in place: compulsory reductions, which apply to all members via quotas, and voluntary cuts, announced by a subset of big producers, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. The problem is that individual producers have an incentive to cheat, selling above their quotas and free-riding on the efforts of others to keep prices high, so as to increase their own revenues. Analysis by Jorge León of Rystad Energy, a consultancy, shows that some countries are misbehaving on a grand scale. Last month the voluntary cutters produced 806,000 more b/d than called for by their collective targets.

The worst offenders, Iraq and Kazakhstan, have consistently flouted commitments. Russia, which is ever less compliant, appears to like the effect of announcing cuts but to dislike selling less, perhaps because it needs to finance its war effort. Some estimates suggest that even Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s de facto leader and traditional enforcer, has been overproducing slightly. These countries must hope that producers such as Azerbaijan, Nigeria and Sudan continue to pump below their targets, as they are doing now, because of graft, underinvestment and war.

[...]

Such a decision would do little to quell dissent in OPEC, however. Many members think the quotas are unfair, and do not reflect recent increases of capacity. By 2025 all current output cuts—compulsory or not—will expire. On May 14th Kazakhstan opened the debate about quotas for next year by arguing that it should be granted an increase (it has a mega-project near completion). When the last big revision happened, in 2023, there was enough acrimony to delay a meeting by several days and to prompt Angola to leave the alliance.

Oljekartellen Opec är en koalition av notoriska lögnare. Detta kan nästan jämföras med fångarnas dilemma inom spelteori...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Sedan kan man ju titta på sammanfattningar också. Som ex.vis från de indiska putinisterna i Hindustan Times (värre än t.o.m. putinisten Prakash Nanda och hans flaggskepp EurAsian Times). Här kan man snacka om "neutrala indier". Hindustan Times är så pass motbjudande att jag inte lämnar någon referens. Man får söka själv, om intresse finnes.

Samtidigt fortsätter Indien att stödja Ukraina militärt:

The first recorded appearance of 125-mm high-explosive shells of Indian production (SHEll 125-mm HE) in service with Ukraine.

Jakub Janovsky får kanske rätt igen: Vill Indien verkligen ha Rysslands S-400 när landet äntligen kan leverera?

India is set to receive the remaining two regiments of S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile systems from Russia by next year. This new timeline comes after some delays in supplies due to the war in Ukraine. Russia has already delivered three units of the long-range missile systems to India under a USD 5.5 billion deal.

[...]

According to sources, the deliveries of the S-400 missile systems will be completed by next year. India is acquiring these systems to bolster its air power capabilities, primarily to address security challenges from China.

Ovanstående kommenterade jag redan här:

De neutrala indierna blir allt mindre neutrala i världspolitiken. Indiens naturliga plats är ju inte bland diktaturer som Kina och Ryssland.

I så fall borde Modi och hans parti göra rent hus med de hindufascistiska strömningarna i landet. Tyvärr ser man ingenting sådant:
Hindutva fascism threatens the world’s largest democracy

Men Modi har väl fattat att det är taktiskt viktigt/riktigt att hålla sig på "rätt" sida. Sådär lagom mycket - ungefär som banditen Erdogan. Modi är en slug som enbart ser till Indiens intressen, så som han uppfattar dem.

Tydligen har inte så mycket nytt hänt.

[Enceladus]

Det sistnämnda har vi sett även på hemmaplan, med Putin-vänliga vänsterextremister som Knut Lindelöf, vilket styrker mig i min uppfattning att det egentligen inte är någon större skillnad mellan vänster- och högerextremism.

Russia proposes higher income taxes for the well-off

The flat tax rate of 13% was introduced in Russia in 2001 at the beginning of Putin's first term. From 2021, a rate of 15% was introduced for Russians with income exceeding 5 million roubles.

[...]

The ministry proposed raising Russia’s corporate tax rate to 25% from 20%, with a promise to include a deduction for some investments, as requested by businesses.

[...]

The proposed tax amendments also include an increase in taxes for fertiliser and iron ore producers. The mineral extraction tax for iron ore producers would increase by 1.15 times, for potash producers by 2.3 times and it would double for phosphorus fertiliser producers.

Leder Rysslands krigsekonomi till minskade klyftor, eller drabbas främst medelklassen snarare än eliten?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det sistnämnda har vi sett även på hemmaplan, med Putin-vänliga vänsterextremister som Knut Lindelöf, vilket styrker mig i min uppfattning att det egentligen inte är någon större skillnad mellan vänster- och högerextremism.

Russia proposes higher income taxes for the well-off

The flat tax rate of 13% was introduced in Russia in 2001 at the beginning of Putin's first term. From 2021, a rate of 15% was introduced for Russians with income exceeding 5 million roubles.

[...]

The ministry proposed raising Russia’s corporate tax rate to 25% from 20%, with a promise to include a deduction for some investments, as requested by businesses.

[...]

The proposed tax amendments also include an increase in taxes for fertiliser and iron ore producers. The mineral extraction tax for iron ore producers would increase by 1.15 times, for potash producers by 2.3 times and it would double for phosphorus fertiliser producers.

Leder Rysslands krigsekonomi till minskade klyftor, eller drabbas främst medelklassen snarare än eliten?

Min kommentar, som Enceladus-kollektivet helt obefogat klippte in här, saknar samband med Enceladus-kollektivets egen text.

[Enceladus]

Ja, sultanen vet man aldrig var man har.

Pentagon Opens Ammunition Factory to Keep Arms Flowing to Ukraine

Here, in the Pentagon’s first new major arms plant built since Russia invaded Ukraine, Turkish workers in orange hard hats are busy unpacking wood crates stenciled with the name Repkon, a defense company based in Istanbul, and assembling computer-controlled robots and lathes.

[...]

Mr. LaPlante and Mr. Bush both indicated that European countries were also ramping up their artillery ammunition production, and U.S. defense contractors are in talks with the Ukrainian government to find ways to help Ukraine bolster its own domestic defense industry.

The United States has transferred sensitive manufacturing plans for more than 1,000 American weapons to Kyiv, and translated an equal number of technical manuals from English to Ukrainian, the two officials said.

Verkligen? Sultanen säljer till högstbjudande, och alla vet vilken sida som har mest att erbjuda!

Min kommentar, som Enceladus-kollektivet helt obefogat klippte in här, saknar samband med Enceladus-kollektivets egen text.

Före kriget gynnades höginkomsttagare och bolag. Nu har Putin annonserat kraftiga skattehöjningar för båda. Är det inte uppenbart att Lindelöf uppskattar det?

OPEC heavyweights are cheating on their targets

The worst offenders, Iraq and Kazakhstan, have consistently flouted commitments. Russia, which is ever less compliant, appears to like the effect of announcing cuts but to dislike selling less, perhaps because it needs to finance its war effort. Some estimates suggest that even Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s de facto leader and traditional enforcer, has been overproducing slightly. These countries must hope that producers such as Azerbaijan, Nigeria and Sudan continue to pump below their targets, as they are doing now, because of graft, underinvestment and war.

Oljekartellen Opec är en koalition av notoriska lögnare. Detta kan nästan jämföras med fångarnas dilemma inom spelteori...

Russian energy ministry halts disclosure of gasoline output data

Russian energy ministry said on Wednesday it was stopping the disclosure of gasoline output statistics in order to safeguard "informational safety" of the oil product market.

[...]

"Given the current geopolitical situation, the disclosure of such information may become a reason for market manipulation by unscrupulous participants," energy ministry said in comments to Reuters.

[...]

Moscow had re-imposed gasoline exports restrictions from March 1, but suspended the ban until June 30.

Som sagt, detta är en koalition av notoriska lögnare. De kan inte ens lita på varandra!

Russian Firms Turn to Crypto for China Commodities Trade

That large Russian firms are now turning to blockchain two years after the start of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine underscores the lasting effect international restrictions in response to the war have had on the economy. Russian companies dealing in commodities from metals, like nickel and steel, to timber have been facing challenges with receiving payments for their goods and purchasing equipment and raw materials since the beginning of the conflict. That’s true even when they aren’t sanctioned, though some have come under multiple penalties from the US, the European Union and their allies.

Even in China, which didn’t join international sanctions and has become the main export market for multiple Russian commodities as well as a supplier of goods and equipment, financial transactions have grown more difficult this year. That’s in large part due to the US Treasury Department threatening secondary sanctions on lenders facilitating sanctions evasion, which has led to a tightening of compliance measures.

“With stablecoins, the transfer may take just 5-15 seconds and cost a few cents, making such transactions pretty efficient when the sender already has an asset base in stablecoins,” said Ivan Kozlov, an expert on digital currencies and co-founder at Resolv Labs, which offers crypto-related products, but is not involved in commodities trading. Tether’s USDT stablecoin is pegged to the US dollar, which makes it even more convenient for exporters.

Ryssland och Kina väljer kryptovalutor med bunden växelkurs till den amerikanska dollarn, och det är oklart om kinesiska Aliexpress levererar till Ryssland.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ja, sultanen vet man aldrig var man har.

Pentagon Opens Ammunition Factory to Keep Arms Flowing to Ukraine

Here, in the Pentagon’s first new major arms plant built since Russia invaded Ukraine, Turkish workers in orange hard hats are busy unpacking wood crates stenciled with the name Repkon, a defense company based in Istanbul, and assembling computer-controlled robots and lathes.

[...]

Mr. LaPlante and Mr. Bush both indicated that European countries were also ramping up their artillery ammunition production, and U.S. defense contractors are in talks with the Ukrainian government to find ways to help Ukraine bolster its own domestic defense industry.

The United States has transferred sensitive manufacturing plans for more than 1,000 American weapons to Kyiv, and translated an equal number of technical manuals from English to Ukrainian, the two officials said.

Verkligen? Sultanen säljer till högstbjudande, och alla vet vilken sida som har mest att erbjuda!

Ja, när det passar sultanens syften. Som jag skrev:

Ja, sultanen vet man aldrig var man har.



Han säger olika saker vid olika tillfällen, allt eftersom det passar hans syften.

Behovet av explosivämnen har jag framhållit många gånger, senast här: viewtopic.php?p=417398#p417398

Det räcker inte med att smida granater, man måste fylla dem med något också. Och helst inte klusterammunition. Och så behövs drivladdningar också: viewtopic.php?p=418574#p418574

Och tändrör! Ja, det är inte klokt så mycket som behövs.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Min kommentar, som Enceladus-kollektivet helt obefogat klippte in här, saknar samband med Enceladus-kollektivets egen text.

Före kriget gynnades höginkomsttagare och bolag. Nu har Putin annonserat kraftiga skattehöjningar för båda. Är det inte uppenbart att Lindelöf uppskattar det?

Vad Lindelöf uppskattar eller inte uppskattar intresserar mig inte så mycket. Jag använde honom bara som exempel på att putinismen finns både inom vänster- och högerextremismen.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

En intressant artikel om vad Estland gör för att bekämpa Putins hantlangare: Här tar de flest spioner och förrädare i det nya kalla kriget

Vi har mycket att lära av Estland, esterna vet in på bara huden vad rysk/sovjetiskt förtryck innebär, under den här vidriga stalin-flaggan:




Just nu lyssnar jag också, som av en händelse, på musik av Estland nationalikon inom musiken: Arvo Pärt

[Enceladus]

Det här visar väl tydligt att banditen Erdogan inte har något emot att ställa till oreda i Sverige: Polisens hemliga rapport läckte till ”Kurdiska räven”
Rawa Majid satt tydligen anhållen då det turkiska medborgarskap han köpt av Erdogan beviljades. Majids affärer har ju gått bra, om man säger så, så han har gott om pengar. Och Erdogans statsförvaltning är fullt mutbar.

Israels Mossad: Rawa Majid nu i iransk tjänst

Foxtrot- och Rumba-nätverken och dess ledare Rawa Majid samt Ismail Abdo arbetar numera för Iran, enligt ett uttalande från den israeliska underrättelsetjänsten Mossad som SVT har tagit del av.

[...]

Majid tog sig från Turkiet till Iran i september i fjol, enligt de israeliska uppgifterna. Turkiet hade först avslagit Sveriges begäran om utlämning av Majid, eftersom han både har svenskt och turkiskt medborgarskap.

Majid lämnade landet när Turkiet vidtog åtgärder för att dra in hans turkiska pass och väl i Iran tvingades han välja mellan ett långt fängelsestraff och att samarbeta med Iran, enligt Mossad.

Rawa Majid arbetar numera för Iran. Till skillnad från sultanen kan han räkna med mullorna.

China May Withhold Support for UAE's Territorial Claim Against Iran

A diplomatic source close to the UAE-China negotiations told Iran International that Beijing has decided not to support the UAE's claim of ownership over the islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb at this meeting.

In exchange for this action, the Islamic Republic has promised to disrupt the development of the "International North-South Transport Corridor" (INSTC) project to slow down its progress.

The International North-South Transport Corridor is a strategic Russian-Indian-Iranian project that aims to connect the Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.

[...]

The Belt and Road Initiative is a plan presented by China's President in 2013 to enhance economic cooperation between China and the international community. Based on the "Silk Road," this initiative plays a key role in Beijing's foreign policy.

On the other hand, the International North-South Transport Corridor is of great importance to Moscow. However, progress on this project has been delayed due to increasing pressure from Beijing on Tehran.

Ryssland och Iran tillhör Kinas intressesfär. Detta innebär att länderna kan behöva gå emot sina egna intressen, t.ex. ta avstånd från Indien. Bibelns första bud!

Virtually Every Sanctioned Russian Oil Tanker Remains Idle and Empty Months After Sanctions

Twenty-one of of the 40 belong to Russia’s state-controlled shipping company, Sovcomflot PJSC. Most of the other 19 are controlled by United Arab Emirates-based Hennesea Holdings Ltd.

[...]

One of the 40, the Turkish-owned Yasa Golden Bosphorus, was removed from the list in April, allowing it to benefit from international standard services, such as insurance. Since being de-listed, the ship has loaded a cargo of US crude, but remains anchored off the Texas coast.

The rest of the sanctioned ships are sitting idle and empty, dotted around the world, according to vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Det lönar sig att samarbeta med sultanen!

Biden secretly gave Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia with US weapons

The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, two U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.

“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,” a U.S. official said, adding that the policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed.”

[...]

In effect, Ukraine can now use American-provided weapons, such as rockets and rocket launchers, to shoot down launched Russian missiles heading toward Kharkiv, at troops massing just over the Russian border near the city, or Russian bombers launching bombs toward Ukrainian territory. But the official said Ukraine cannot use those weapons to hit civilian infrastructure or launch long-range missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System, to hit military targets deep inside Russia.

En levande groda som läggs i en kastrull med hett vatten hoppar snabbt upp igen. Försöker Biden-administrationen koka grodan långsamt?