Militär teknik och Ukrainakriget

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Jag räknar upp dem här, för enkelhets skull:

• Philip Ingram
• Phil Wasielewski
• Ann Marie Dailey

Det är skribenten som gör ett ensidigt urval, inte de nämnda personerna. Jag försöker vidga perspektivet:

Ukraine Produces as Many Shahed-136 Analogs as russia: What Quantity is Mentioned?

In russia, Shahed-136 drones are currently being assembled at a rate of 330-350 per month. However, it's worth noting that the discussion does not encompass the entire production cycle, as russia actively imports a significant portion of components, including engines.

[...]

However, according to the CEO of Ukrainian Defense Industry, Ukraine has achieved more than a significant pace in the production of long-range drones. Ultimately, a rate of 330–350 drones per month equates to approximately 4,000 drones per year. At the moment, Russia demonstrates a relatively low readiness to repel drone attacks. Of course, this does not apply to the front-line or border areas, as well as Moscow.

However, practical experience shows that the more distant the Russian territory, the scarcer air defense systems become, potentially even strategic regions remain unprotected. This is evident from the long-range strike on Alabuga and numerous other attacks on Russian oil refining infrastructure, including the Ryazan Oil Refinery.

Ukraina har av allt att döma inte bara ett kvalitativt övertag, utan också ett kvantitativt dito. Dessutom kan drönarna gå via Svarta havet eller Belarus!

Jag försöker återigen vidga perspektivet. Som synes har Ryssland många sårbarheter!

Ja, det är ju det vanliga floskulösa debattknepet. Det som beskrivs i de av mig citerade artiklarna representerar inte något "ensidigt urval" utan den bistra sanningen, även om den inte passar Enceladus-kollektivet. Det Enceladus-kollektivet ägnar sig åt skulle kunna beskrivas som ensidiga skönmålningar, även om Enceladus-kollektivet försöker maskera det med eufemismer som "återigen vidga perspektivet". Observera att det som citeras ovan är ukrainska källor.

Men jag förfaller givetvis inte till sådan propagandism. Syftet med mina referenser är enbart att visa på - i detta fall - Ukrainas behov av ett fungerande luftförsvar och partnerländernas sölande med detta, även om Enceladus-kollektivet försöker blanda bort korten. Det spelar ingen roll i vilket utsträckning Ukraina kan angripa ryska mål, om man inte kan försvara sig bättre mot de ryska missilangreppen. Angreppen på den ukrainska energiinfrastrukturen är utomordentligt allvarliga, vilket även president Zelenskyi framhåller. Att försöka vifta undan det detta som "ensidigt" är ju direkt löjeväckande.

Vilka motiv Enceladus-kollektivet har med sina skriverier har jag aldrig förstått, oavsett vad som påstås.

Här är ettt annat perspektiv:

Ukraine's power plants at the mercy of Russian missiles

Substation ablaze near Bryansk in Russia, reports of drone attack – video

The governor of Russia's Bryansk Oblast claimed on the evening of 19 April that six drones had been shot down after a fire broke out at an energy infrastructure facility.

Ukraina svarar med samma mynt. Putin verkar fortfarande inte förstå att två kan spela det spelet!

Visst är det nödvändigt att föra in kriget på rysk territorium också, men Ukraina är mycket mer sårbart för denna typ av strategiska attacker. Dels för att ryssarna har betydligt större eldkraft, dels för att anflygningsvägarna är kortare.

Ukrainas förmåga att åstadkomma strategisk skada för Ryssland är (än så länge) begränsad, möjligen med undantag för oljeindustrin.

[Enceladus]

Ja, det är ju det vanliga floskulösa debattknepet. Det som beskrivs i de av mig citerade artiklarna representerar inte något "ensidigt urval" utan den bistra sanningen, även om den inte passar Enceladus-kollektivet.

Pentagon Teams Up With SpaceX to Block Russia From Using Starlink

The US has been “heavily involved in working with the government of Ukraine and SpaceX to counter Russian illicit use of Starlink terminals,” John Plumb, the outgoing assistant secretary for space policy, said in an interview.

“At this time we have successfully countered Russian use, but I am certain Russia will continue to try and find ways to exploit Starlink and other commercial communications systems,” he told Bloomberg News. Although “it will continue to be a problem, I think we’ve wrapped our heads around it and found good solutions with both Starlink and Ukraine.”

[...]

In the end, Pentagon officials deal with Gwynne Shotwell, the president of SpaceX, not Musk, its co-founder and chief executive officer.

Den bistra sanningen är att Ryssland - precis som Europa - behöver Starlink (läs gärna Elena Grossfelds länkade artikel).

Fordonstypen finns redan i Ukraina, och nu tillförs Ukrainas försvarsmakt ett (som det verkar) stort antal, siffran 200 har som synes nämnts. I så fall är det med all säkerhet fråga om nytillverkning (med åtföljande ledtider).

I en exklusiv intervju med signaturen "Colby Badhwar" på X berättar Roshels vd att företaget har skickat betydligt mer än så:

There are many examples of lacklustre support to Ukraine, but Canada's @RoshelDefence isn't one of them. They have delivered 1000 armoured vehicles to Ukraine, and counting.

This is a thread of highlights from my exclusive interview with Roshel's CEO, Roman Shimonov.

Roman Shimonov är tydligen från Israel och har anklagats för korruption.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ja, det är ju det vanliga floskulösa debattknepet. Det som beskrivs i de av mig citerade artiklarna representerar inte något "ensidigt urval" utan den bistra sanningen, även om den inte passar Enceladus-kollektivet.

Pentagon Teams Up With SpaceX to Block Russia From Using Starlink

The US has been “heavily involved in working with the government of Ukraine and SpaceX to counter Russian illicit use of Starlink terminals,” John Plumb, the outgoing assistant secretary for space policy, said in an interview.

“At this time we have successfully countered Russian use, but I am certain Russia will continue to try and find ways to exploit Starlink and other commercial communications systems,” he told Bloomberg News. Although “it will continue to be a problem, I think we’ve wrapped our heads around it and found good solutions with both Starlink and Ukraine.”

[...]

In the end, Pentagon officials deal with Gwynne Shotwell, the president of SpaceX, not Musk, its co-founder and chief executive officer.

Den bistra sanningen är att Ryssland - precis som Europa - behöver Starlink (läs gärna Elena Grossfelds länkade artikel).

Ja, SpaceX har tagit världen som gisslan - tyvärr. Vem som egentligen styr där kan man ju undra.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Fordonstypen finns redan i Ukraina, och nu tillförs Ukrainas försvarsmakt ett (som det verkar) stort antal, siffran 200 har som synes nämnts. I så fall är det med all säkerhet fråga om nytillverkning (med åtföljande ledtider).

I en exklusiv intervju med signaturen "Colby Badhwar" på X berättar Roshels vd att företaget har skickat betydligt mer än så:

There are many examples of lacklustre support to Ukraine, but Canada's @RoshelDefence isn't one of them. They have delivered 1000 armoured vehicles to Ukraine, and counting.

This is a thread of highlights from my exclusive interview with Roshel's CEO, Roman Shimonov.

Roman Shimonov är tydligen från Israel och har anklagats för korruption.

Åh, en "exklusiv intervju" med "Badhwar". Jo, jag tackar, jag.

Snyggt jobbat att jämföra med de uppgifter som fanns tillgängliga för ca. 1,5 år sedan med vad som är känt nu. Men Enceladus-kollektivet måste ha avdelat en man till att lusläsa precis alla mina inlägg och försöka citatförfalska. Det har hänt förut och kommer att hända igen, tyvärr. Såhär såg mitt originalinlägg, som Enceladus-kollektivet klippte sönder, ut:

Kanada bidrar med den lätta pansarterrängbilen Roshel Senator.
Canada pledges 200 armoured personnel carriers for Ukraine



Fordonstypen finns redan i Ukraina, och nu tillförs Ukrainas försvarsmakt ett (som det verkar) stort antal, siffran 200 har som synes nämnts. I så fall är det med all säkerhet fråga om nytillverkning (med åtföljande ledtider).

Redan när fordonstypen tillhandahölls Ukraina våren 2022 ifrågasattes dess användbarhet på slagfältet:
Canadian armoured vehicles arrive in Ukraine but they're not fit for front line, experts say

Och vad är det egentligen för gäng som utgör ledningsgruppen i Roshel: https://roshel.ca/about/

[Enceladus]

Och vad är det egentligen för gäng som utgör ledningsgruppen i Roshel: https://roshel.ca/about/

Det svaret finns naturligtvis också på X:

Roshel's leadership consists mostly of executives from Israel and Ukraine. Demitry Falen served in Israel's apartheid airforce, as did Zeev Braiman. Braiman then worked for Israeli drone manufacturer, Elbit Systems. Dima Gorin graduated from a Ukrainian shipbuilding university.

Tänk om staterna Israel och Ukraina också kunde samarbeta!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Och vad är det egentligen för gäng som utgör ledningsgruppen i Roshel: https://roshel.ca/about/

Det svaret finns naturligtvis också på X:

Roshel's leadership consists mostly of executives from Israel and Ukraine. Demitry Falen served in Israel's apartheid airforce, as did Zeev Braiman. Braiman then worked for Israeli drone manufacturer, Elbit Systems. Dima Gorin graduated from a Ukrainian shipbuilding university.

Tänk om staterna Israel och Ukraina också kunde samarbeta!

Frågan var förstås retorisk, jag har inget större intresse av det egentligen. Dessutom undviker jag Musk-kloaken.

På tal om korruption får man väl vara glad att det inte är fråga om något liknande den israelisk-moldaviske oligarken Ilan Shor, som flydde från Moldavien till Israel, efter att ha ådömts ett långt fängelsestraff för ekonomisk brottslighet.

Netanyahu har inget intresse av av bistå Ukraina. Han har andra prioriteringar.

".......Israel's apartheid airforce ....."

Dessutom är Netanyahu kompis med Trump (ja, jag vet att Trump har kritiserat Netanyahu också - som bekant vet man aldrig när Trump menar allvar), som ju som bekant ska bli "The Great Peacemaker", både här och där: Trump knocks Biden over condition on weapons supply to Israel
Vilket Netanyuahu-medierna slickar i sig: Trump: Biden siding with Hamas, leading world ‘straight into World War III’

Inget av dessa krig hade som bekant brutit ut om inte D.J. Trump genom ett enormt valfusk berövats sin rättmätiga seger 2020.
Så Netanyuahu anser sig kunna strunta i vad Joe Biden tycker, förmodligen räknar han Biden som en lame duck redan nu.

PS. Ovanstående kan innehålla spår av ironi

[Enceladus]

Ja, SpaceX har tagit världen som gisslan - tyvärr. Vem som egentligen styr där kan man ju undra.

Starlink soars: SpaceX’s satellite internet surprises analysts with $6.6 billion revenue projection

Quilty Space estimates the cost of Starlink satellites has evolved significantly. While the first generation V1 satellites were produced for around $200,000 each, the latest V2 mini version carries a heftier price tag of $800,000, but that reflects its increased size and capabilities (from 260 kilograms to 730 kilograms).

Looking ahead, Quilty projects the future V3 satellite will weigh in at a substantial 1,500 kilograms and cost roughly $1.2 million.

[...]

Henry predicts that if SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket becomes operational for Starlink deployments by 2025, “they might jump straight to launching the V3 version of their satellites.”

Europa har ju i praktiken kastat in handduken. Det är en klen tröst att Ryssland inte är bättre. Dessutom använder supermakten numera T-55:or på fronten.

Ukraine to Receive US-Made Mobile Rocket Systems Paid by Germany

Ukraine will receive three HIMARS mobile rocket systems from US stocks with Germany footing the bill, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Thursday.

Pistorius, who revealed the plan after talks with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon, said the idea emerged during the extended wait for $61 billion in US aid to Ukraine. Congress passed the assistance as part of a national security package in April.

“Time was of the essence,” Pistorius told reporters. “So we offered to take over, pay for and deliver three systems from US army stocks.”

Har USA inte råd att betala tillbaka för donationer av landets egna vapen?

[Enceladus]

Det spelar ingen roll i vilket utsträckning Ukraina kan angripa ryska mål, om man inte kan försvara sig bättre mot de ryska missilangreppen. Angreppen på den ukrainska energiinfrastrukturen är utomordentligt allvarliga, vilket även president Zelenskyi framhåller. Att försöka vifta undan det detta som "ensidigt" är ju direkt löjeväckande.

Det återstår väl att se om dagens Ryssland kan överleva utan olja. Ukraina har just attackerat ett raffinaderi i Kaluga-regionen, och det är inte första gången:

/1. Pervyy Zavod oil refinery in the Kaluga region of Russia after tonight’s drone attack. 300km from Ukrainian border.
This is not the first time this oil refinery gets targeted, previously drone strikes were on the 15th of March 2024.

Sovjetunionen var inte alls lika enkelspårig: gas, vapen och rymden. Men Putin prioriterade Ukraina - jag citerar Bloombergs energiexpert Stephen Stapczynski:

“US sanctions are working surprisingly well,” said Malte Humpert, founder of the Arctic Institute, who has been monitoring Russia’s expansion in the region for over a decade. “Here, they’re really ahead of the curve. They blocked Arctic LNG 2 before it even started production, blocked the vessels before they could be delivered. With everything else, like oil or the shadow fleet, it’s always reactive.”

[...]

Now, as part of a wider plan to stop Russia from developing any new energy projects that might contribute significant revenue, the US wants to ensure the Arctic venture is “dead in the water,” as Geoffrey Pyatt, Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources, told a conference last month.

[...]

“Restricted access to Western high-tech oil services creates a risk for maintaining and increasing profitable production and refining of oil and gas,” said Mangileva. “The lack of qualified personnel aggravates this challenge, since the task now is not only to operate the equipment, but also to develop our own technologies.”

Denna gång är det för ovanlighetens skull inte för lite och för sent. Rysslands enorma storlek har både för- och nackdelar, och det gäller även drönarattacker!

Bilderna säger inte mycket, bara en silluett. Det skulle kunna vara vad som beskrivs här:

Här är en bättre video på drönaren som genomförde gårdagens attack mot ryska raffinaderier:

The Ukrainian drones are in fact slow-flying ultralight planes. They flew at least 1,300 km - likely even 1,500 km - before hitting the refinery in Bashkortostan. The Russian air defense is not existent.

Klockan tickar, bokstavligen: EV Sales Are Taking Off. Why Is Oil Demand Still Climbing?

Oil demand has grown faster than expected over the last couple of years, according to the IEA, and is now slightly higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. And while the agency expects demand will peak before the end of the decade, oil consumption could remain strong for decades without new subsidies or mandates for electric vehicles.

[...]

A report last year by RMI, an energy research institute, said these accelerating adoption rates are a better predictor of the future. Falling battery costs, increased policy support and shifting consumer attitudes could mean that electric vehicles will account for more than 60 percent of new vehicle sales globally by 2030, the report argued.

This more rapid adoption would mean that oil demand could start falling faster than current policies would suggest. The IEA has developed a separate modeling scenario based on countries’ broader climate and net-zero targets, independent of whether they are backed yet by specific policies, and determined that oil consumption would fall by nearly 8 percent by 2030 if nations were to meet these goals. By 2050, oil demand would be cut nearly in half.

Den ryska eliten måste verkligen hata denne Elon Musk: först rymden, nu olja!

[Enceladus]

Ukraine will hold if it gets the arms it needs, says a top general

General Pavliuk says the critical phase of the war will come in the next two months. With American assistance only beginning to reach the front lines, Vladimir Putin’s generals are throwing in all the combat-ready materiel they have to test Ukraine’s exhausted and undersupplied troops. “Russia knows that if we receive enough weapons within a month or two, the situation could turn against them.”

Ukraine urgently needs more air defence, he says, and the anticipated delivery of F-16 fighter jets by early June will offer a significant psychological boost. But it remains uncertain whether Ukraine will receive the newer versions of the F-16 (block 50 onwards) that are needed to challenge Russia’s bombers. These stay at a distance, out of range of Ukrainian air defence, while dropping heavy guided bombs on front-line positions at a rate of 130 per day.

[...]

One of the most urgent tasks on the general’s desk is raising ten new brigades in preparation for the Russian offensive. Although manpower has been a concern since December, when mobilisation largely stalled, General Pavliuk insists equipment, not men, is the main bottleneck. Ukraine desperately needs artillery and armoured vehicles, which it hopes the West will provide.

Ukraina förväntar sig att de första F-16-stridsflygplanen anländer mellan juni och juli. Men blir det "block 50 onwards"? Vidare ska fångar skickas till fronten.

US to announce new $400 million military aid package for Ukraine

The United States will announce a new $400 million military aid package for Ukraine on Friday, just as it appears Russia has launched a major offensive in Kharkiv.

The package, which will involve transferring weapons already in U.S. stocks, includes new Patriot missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Bradley fighting vehicles, mine-protected vehicles, Javelin anti-armor systems and other munitions.

[...]

Ukraine faces yet another brutal test as Russia on Friday launched a ground attack in the northeastern Kharkiv region. “Russia has begun a new wave of counteroffensive actions in this direction,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters Friday. “Ukraine has met them there with our troops, brigades and artillery.”

Ryska styrkor försöker göra ett genombrott i Charkiv-regionen - hittills utan framgång. Under tiden får Ukraina lite smått och gott från USA, inte minst Bradley.

[Enceladus]

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration's fifty-seventh tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package has an estimated value of $400 million and includes capabilities to support Ukraine's most urgent battlefield requirements, including air defense, artillery rounds, armored vehicles, and anti-tank weapons.

[...]

Equipment to integrate Western launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine's systems;

[...]

The United States has committed more than $51.3 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, including more than $50.6 billion since the beginning of Russia’s unprovoked and brutal invasion on February 24, 2022.

[...]

More than 300 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;

Nu har Ukraina sammanlagt fått fler än 300 Bradley-fordon. Dessutom fortsätter det så kallade FrankenSAM-programmet, vilket har behandlats flera gånger.

Detta får inte hända med Ukrainas nya F-16-plan. Ukraina har blivit bra på skenmål, men det räcker inte:

Favorit i repris:

Här är en annan favorit i repris:

You know, some decoys are hard to recognize but others are way too obvious that you better hide from your superiors that you just wasted a $3 million missile on plywood. This was the latter case.

No secondary explosions of missiles, not even secondary burns, tubes look pretty empty, atrocious “camouflage”, the plywood does not even have noticeable burn marks. The only thing missing was the sign: “please, hit me”. And that’s what the Russian Iskander-M missile did.

Trovärdiga skenmål ger valuta för pengarna!

Lite mer av fakta tack, och mindre av propaganda, spekulationer och ryktesspridning. Men det är givetvis för mycket begärt.

Ukraina har återigen använt klusterladdade ATACMS mot en oljedepå i ockuperade Luhansk:

Footage of the ATACMS releasing its cluster bomblets over the fuel depot.

Det framgår av videoklippet att det rör sig om klustervapen!

[Enceladus]

Not one, but two Russian bombs fell on Belgorod

Apartment building partially collapses in a Russian border city after shelling. At least 13 killed

An apartment building partially collapsed in the Russian border city of Belgorod on Sunday, causing at least 13 deaths and injuring 20 other people, officials said. They blamed Ukrainian shelling for the building’s destruction.

[...]

Russia’s Investigative Committee, the country’s top law enforcement agency, said in a statement that the 10-story building had been hit by Ukrainian shelling.

The Russian Defense Ministry later wrote on social media that the building had been damaged by fragments of a downed Tochka-U TRC missile. It also said that air defenses had shot down several more rockets over the Belgorod region, as well as two drones that were destroyed in a separate incident later Sunday.

Ett ryskt höghus har delvis kollapsat efter att de lägre våningarna i byggnaden hade träffats. Kan det vara en rysk glidbomb snarare än en ukrainsk missil?

Analys: Ryssland tappade egen bomb i Belgorod

Det ryska försvarsdepartementet lade skulden på Ukraina.

Efter att videor från platsen, som fångat delar av händelseförloppet från olika håll, granskats av journalisten Oliver Alexander kan man dock konstatera att explosionen går genom byggnaden från nordost.

[...]

Flera källor, bland andra det brittiska försvarsdepartementet, pekar också i en genomgång på flera tidigare tillfällen då Ryssland av misstag råkat släppa glidbomber som varit avsedda för Ukraina, på den egna staden Belgorod.

DN:s genomgång av information från öppna källor pekar på att det faktiskt rör sig om en rysk glidbomb. Är någon förvånad?

Putin avoids attack with Ukrainian kamikaze drone

On 1 October 2023, a helicopter base that served Putin's residence, among others, came under attack by the Liutyi.

"We hit their helicopter landing site and damaged several helicopters. But we didn't know at first that the day before we hit Adler, Putin had met with Tokayev there. Putin was 12 kilometres away from the place where the second strike of Liutyi took place. This was confirmed to us later," intelligence sources tell Ukrainska Pravda.

[...]

"When it struck Sochi, they assumed it was from a ship or from the mountains in Georgia. They had no idea it came from Ukraine. And then all of a sudden it hit St. Petersburg – practically the opposite end of the country. It was evidently a shock for them", a person involved in the launches recalls in a conversation with Ukrainska Pravda.

Ukraina råkade nästan attackera Putin med sina långräckviddiga Liutyi-drönare. Enligt den citerade artikeln har Ninja-drönare ännu längre räckvidd: 1 500 km!

Storm Shadow Missiles May Have Hit ‘Secret’ Russian Air Defense Base in Crimea

At around 6 a.m. on the morning of Monday, May 13, several missiles, suspected to be Anglo-French Storm Shadow / SCALP air-launched cruise missiles, attacked Russian military unit 85683 on Mount Ai-Petri in Crimea. Astra Telegram reports, citing local emergency services, that facilities were damaged, the commander of the unit, Oleksandr Kulakov, and another soldier were killed, while an unknown number of other servicemen were wounded.

[...]

Earlier, the social media site Krym.Realii reported that during Soviet times, the Radio Technical Center for Long Range Reconnaissance and Guidance of Air Defense Forces had been established at the summit of the mountain.

The ball-shaped domes, that provide protective covers and camouflage for air defense radars, often attract the attention of tourists. A nearby military camp houses maintenance and support staff for the site.

Ukraina fortsätter att framgångsrikt använda sina västerländska kryssningsmissiler. Samtidigt förpassas det sovjetiska arvet till historieböckerna.

[Enceladus]

Media: Fuel train derailed after drone attack in Russia’s Volgograd Oblast

The Russian Telegram channel Baza reported that a drone attacked a train, resulting in two fuel carriages catching fire, with preliminary data indicating that one tank exploded, causing a fuel spill and igniting the surrounding grass. Baza later clarified that a total of nine train carriages derailed, and the fire had not yet been extinguished as of 6:30 a.m.

Ukrainska drönare har hittills främst attackerat raffinaderier, oljedepåer och industrianläggningar, men tåg är inte heller immuna. Blir det en logistisk mardröm?

Ukraina råkade nästan attackera Putin med sina långräckviddiga Liutyi-drönare. Enligt den citerade artikeln har Ninja-drönare ännu längre räckvidd: 1 500 km!

Meet the Ninja: Name of Ukraine's Largest-Reaching Drone of 1,500 km Revealed

For example, drones with an attack range of 800 km, namely, the Bober UAV developed thanks to the crowdfunded Black Box project and known for its strikes on Moscow City, or the Morok operated by the Security Service of Ukraine. But the most capable of these developments responsible for the record-breaking 1,400+ km strike has been shrouded in mystery. That is, until now.

The said article only mentions its name and operational range, though:

"There are also other UAVs such as Ninja, which recently set a record for the range — 1,500 kilometers to the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat plant, there is the Bober, there is the Brama based on the A-22 aircraft, and other developments. However, in terms of the price/quality/range/accuracy ratio, Liutyi still holds a confident leadership," notes the author of the article.

Långa avstånd? Inga problem! Antalet bekräftade förluster utgör 15 830 enheter, varav 3 021 stridsvagnar och 25 TOS-1A (drönare har förstört många system).

Ryssland har en modern familj av taktiska flygplansburna attackmissiler (air-to-surface), benämnda Kh-38/M - en modulärt uppbyggd serie där man kan byta ut både stridsladdning, navigationssystem och målsökare. Här ser vi några olika varianter av KH-38M

Our Best Look At Russia’s Kh-38 Missile Now Being Used In Ukraine

A spate of recent imagery shows Russia’s modern Kh-38M air-to-ground missile, apparently employed in the war in Ukraine. Previously, various videos had been released showing airstrikes that purportedly involved Kh-38Ms, but couldn’t be confirmed as such. The new photos show, in some detail, the missile carried under the wing of Su-34 Fullback strike fighters, seemingly taking part in combat sorties.

The use of the new-generation precision-guided munition is notable, with Russian tactical jets so far having relied heavily on fairly improvised glide bombs to give them the standoff capability that they so badly need.

Den länkade artikeln beskriver den nämnda attackmissilen i större detalj. Dessvärre har Ukraina på sistone tvingats släppa igenom många ryska missiler:

“Why? Because we had zero missiles,” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said in an interview with PBS NewsHour. “We ran out of all missiles.”

Russia, by contrast, fired 11 missiles at the power plant, he said. Ukrainian air defenses downed the first seven — but had no choice but to let the next four pass, he said.

[...]

Ukraine has been much more successful at intercepting attack drones. Data from the Ukrainian Air Force shows it has downed about 80 percent of them over the past year, almost all Shahed drones. That is because they are slower than missiles and can be shot down with less sophisticated weapons, like antiaircraft guns.

Däremot kan Ukraina bekämpa de iranska drönarna, och Ryssland verkar fortfarande inte ha några egna långräckviddiga drönare.

[Enceladus]

I den mån Ukraina redan nu har "hundratals" ATACMS på hand kan man ju tycka att det är dags att använda dem.

​Ukraine Allegedly Strikes the Belbek Airfield with ATACMS, Likely Hits russian MiG-31 Aircraft

The Ministry of Defense of russia claimed that all targets were intercepted, stating that ten operational-tactical missiles (referring to ATACMS), two AGM-88 HARMs and two AASM Hammer bombs were destroyed over Crimea.

However, OSINT specialist OSINTtechnical reported on X that NASA’s FIRMS orbital fire monitoring system detected several fires at the Belbek air base on the night of May 15, lasting about two hours, primarily in the southern part of the airfield.

The CyberBoroshno channel had previously posted satellite images from March 31, showing detailed aircraft locations at the airbase, noting that some aircraft might be in shelters. The airbase reportedly houses 24 planes and six helicopters, excluding those potentially in shelters. By comparing these images with the fire map of the airfield’s territory after the strike, it is inferred that the ATACMS might have primarily targeted MiG-31 aircraft, although these satellite images are over two weeks old.

Ukraina har genomfört ännu en attack med klusterladdade ATACMS. Ryssland hävdar att alla inkommande missiler gensköts, men visar upp M74-bildgångare:

Why surely from a downed missile? An ATACMS 300km Cluster Missiles has 300x M74 Bomblets, some will not explode, it happens with all cluster weapons. In most previous ATACMS strikes we have seen unexploded bomblets. In Belbek some bomblets will land on grass, others near planes.

If they shot down a missile, they’d be showing us the downed missile not one of the 300 Bomblets inside of it.

Ryska källor bekräftar att åtminstone ett luftvärnssystem har förstörts - med tillbehör:

In connection with the destruction of such an excellent target as the 92N6 radar of the S-400 complex, many did not pay attention to another interesting victim - the BAZ-69092-021 tractor with a loading platform.

We have never seen such a loss before.

Ryssland tycks alltså ha förlorat sin första artilleritraktor. Vidare kallas den förstörda radarn "Grave Stone". Telegram-kanalen "Fighterbomber" är inte glad!

Russia’s Belbek Airbase In Crimea Hammered By Ukrainian Long-Range Strike

Details are still scarce, but reports indicate that the Russian airbase at Belbek, on the occupied Crimean peninsula, has come under heavy attack by Ukrainian forces. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that it countered an overnight attack by U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), a short-range ballistic missile that has made a significant impact since its first appearance in the conflict last fall. Initial photos from the aftermath suggest that at least one Russian ground-based air defense system was successfully targeted, however.

[...]

However, debris that is said to have been located in Sevastopol in the wake of last night’s attack does appear to show M74 submunitions, consistent with the use of an ATACMS missile fitted with a cluster warhead. As we have detailed in the past, this version of the missile is ideally suited for targeting aircraft in the open and air defense system, as well as vehicle pools, ammunition dumps, and more.

[...]

Belbek Air Base has long been considered a top target for Ukraine with constant reports of the installation being hit that do not pan out. But with the arrival of longer-range ATACMS, it was only a matter of time before Kyiv took a shot at it. Now, as we wait for confirmation on just how extensive the damage is, it's becoming clearer that that these missile are likely putting targets very deep on the Crimean Peninsula at higher risk than ever before.

Är klusterladdade ATACMS ett nytt undervapen? Ryska luftvärnssystem förefaller helt försvarslösa!

[Enceladus]

Damage To Russia’s Belbek Air Base In Crimea Seen After Ukrainian Strikes

Satellite imagery confirms that a portion of the flightline and adjacent areas at Russia's Belbek Air Base on the occupied Crimean peninsula were damaged in Ukrainian strikes this week. Russian MiG-31 Foxhound interceptors were observed in the same area of the installation just two weeks ago. Other parts of the base sustained damage, as well.

[...]

The S-300/S-400 that was struck in the attacks, including what looked to be a 92N6 ‘Grave Stone’ radar that was destroyed, does not show up in the low-resolution imagery, which is not surprising. The level of detail offered by this type of image makes only very large changes to the area being examined easy to decipher. The use of cluster munitions can result in damage to equipment that would not even show up on high-resolution satellite images. As such, we need to be cautious as to the interpretation of the low-resolution images.

A separate partial high-resolution image of Belbek from Planet Labs, also taken today, appears to show one revetment where fighter aircraft park has been severely charred or is filled with a burned-out material, such as an aircraft. Su-35S and Su-30SM Flanker fighters and Su-34 Fullback combat jets have been observed at the base in the past, but are also regularly moved around between different revetments and aprons in order to complicate targeting of potential Ukrainian attacks.

Den amerikanska missilen ATACMS verkar än en gång ha lyckats med sitt uppdrag:

On @Maxar imagery, two MiG-31s and one Su-27 have been completely destroyed, and a MiG-29 damaged, at the Russian Air Force's Belbek Airbase in occupied Crimea. A fuel storage near the main airbase runway was also destroyed, and debris continued to burn in the aftermath.

Får Ukraina underrättelseuppgifter från USA för att inte förspilla detta dyrbara vapen? Varför tycks Ryssland inte alls kunna genskjuta det med sina system?

MiG-31 Foxhounds Confirmed Destroyed In New Imagery Of Belbek Air Base

The new images, which come from Maxar Technologies and were taken earlier today, clearly show the burned-out hulks of two MiG-31 Foxhound interceptors on a damaged apron at Belbek. The charred remains of what now clearly looks to have been an adjacent fuel farm, as well as damage to a small nearby structure, are also visible. Additional scorching can be seen on the apron and adjacent access roads.

The new imagery from Maxar of the aircraft parking areas further to the west shows a destroyed MiG-29 Fulcrum-series fighter. This could very well be one of the many unflyable MiG-29s that were left at the base for years that Russia use as decoys, or it could be one of the few MiG-29s still in service with Russian forces, although this is less likely.

An Su-27 Flanker-series fighter, a number of which call the installation home, parked further west may be damaged to some degree, as well, although we cannot say that for certain based on the imagery. Something looks to have been totally destroyed in an adjacent revetment, but it is unclear what this was.

The War Zone gör en likartad bedömning som ovan gällande förlusterna. Signaturen "The Military Watch" går däremot - som vanligt ska tilläggas - hela vägen:

This one here is one of 9 ex-Ukrainian AF MiG-29s that remained at Belbek after the Russians ceased transferring captured aircraft in April 2014. It was not airworthy.

Aside of the already mentioned 3 destroyed jets (4 counting old MiG-29) and 1 damaged, there are also 3 more Flankers (likely Su-27SMs) that were not evacuated from the base after the attack. There is a good chance that they were also damaged.

Klusterladdade ATACMS är verkligen ett undervapen. Är det någon som minns den ryska attackhelikoptern Ka-52? Nej, just det!

US Considers Sending Ukraine Another Patriot Missile Battery

Tyskland kanske skickar ett fjärde batteri till Ukraina trots allt:

That's interesting. Apparently, the Danish contribution to the German IAAD initiative which aims to strengthen the Ukrainian air defence will be €134 million. The Danish funds will be used to support the purchase of a German Patriot battery.

Since the Dutch contribution (€150 million) and the Belgian contribution (€200 million) are not yet allocated to a specific use case, it can be assumed that Germany will sell another Patriot battery to Ukraine for €150 million to €484 million thanks to Belgium, Denmark, and the Netherlands.

[...]

If, for example, no further batteries are supplied by the US, Ukraine can still look forward to two new Patriot batteries from Germany available from June/July, one of which was financed with foreign funds.

Raytheon förefaller nå större framgång än Boeing!

[Enceladus]

Nato-termen ISTAR betyder helt enkelt att man (i detta fallet) skaffar sig bra målkoordinater:

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi dies in helicopter crash

The terrible weather on Sunday meant it had been impossible to search for Raisi’s helicopter with aircraft, and rescue teams needed to work on foot, helped by special forces, dog teams and drones. Turkey sent an advanced Akıncı drone and the EU activated its Copernicus emergency satellite mapping network to help with the search, confirmed the bloc’s crisis management commissioner, Janez Lenarčič.

Irans Istar är däremot helt underlägsen - jämför exempelvis iranska drönare med ukrainska dito. Som vanligt fick Erdogan bli räddaren i nöden, om än för sent:

– De konservativa brukar inte vara bra på att ena sig kring en person. Raisi har gjort sig ett namn som en hårdför person. Inför ett val är det avhängigt hur många kandidater Väktarrådet tolererar. De brukar diskvalificera kandidater. Resultatet beror på vem som får ställa upp, tillägger Rouzbeh Parsi.

[...]

Revolutionsgardet har fortlöpande försett Ryssland med kamikazedrönare av typen Shahed–136 under kriget i Ukraina och betecknas som terroristorganisation av Bahrain, Saudiarabien och USA. Oppositionella tystas med fängelse, tortyr, spöstraff och avrättning.

Enligt Amnesty International är Iran det land i världen som avrättar flest människor. Under 2023 avrättades 853 människor, vilket är en 48-procentig ökning från året innan.

Springer-koncernen skriver att en annan slaktare i regionen, den från Tel Aviv, kan räddas av den internationella brottmålsdomstolen ICC innan han kastas ut.

Ännu en explosiv natt i Ryssland. Förr eller senare påverkas den ryska ekonomin av detta - utöver kriget och sanktionerna - oavsett hur mycket ryssarna ljuger.

Östeuropas slaktare tar naturligtvis ingen hänsyn till sin egna befolkning:

Footage of the port of Novorossiysk allegedly from this morning. They celebrate that they struck an UAV, but they spray their own city as well port facilities with hundreds of anti air bullets. Absolutely insane clownery.

Det finns en video på sociala medier som åskådliggör hur en av dessa kulor penetrerade en privatbils motorhuv och dess motor. Det blir svårt att köpa en ny!

[Enceladus]

Mars rover mission will use pioneering nuclear power source

Devices that harness the heat produced by the decay of radioactive elements, known as radioisotope heater units (RHUs), allow spacecraft to operate without relying on electricity generated by solar panels to warm them. ESA has historically relied on US or Russian partners to provide RHUs that use plutonium-238 for missions, but since 2009 has been working on its own programme to create radioisotope heaters, as well as batteries that provide electricity.

[...]

ESA’s heater units will not only be a first for Europe, but the first anywhere to use americium-241, a by-product of plutonium decay that packs less power per gram than its predecessor. But americium-241 is more abundant and cheaper, meaning that even if the RHUs require more of the isotope to run, they might be less expensive overall. “Developing and launching a European RHU will be a first for ESA and a major achievement,” says Sutherland.

[...]

ESA had to radically rethink the mission to proceed without the involvement of Roscosmos, which was meant to build the lander. That led ESA to create a new European-designed lander and rely on NASA to fill the remaining holes in the mission plan. According to the agreement, NASA will provide capacity to launch ExoMars in 2028, as well as provide braking engines for the lander. NASA will also provide radioisotope heater units for the rover.

EU:s strategiska autonomi är i högsta grad beroende av egen kärnteknik, och då inte bara kärnvapen. Samtidigt är det Boeings Starliner som står och stampar.

Ukraine Has World’s First Navy Drone Armed With Anti-Aircraft Missiles

Ukraine's uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) are dominating naval combat in the Black Sea. Yet they have, until now, been particularly vulnerable to aircraft. So Russian defenses have emphasized using helicopters and fighter jets to stop them. Now a version armed with two repurposed air-air missiles could change the tide again.

En färsk video visar hur en ukrainsk havsdrönare avfyrar ostyrda raketer. Nästa steg blir styrda raketer som GMLRS eller Brimstone, därefter under vattenytan.

Ännu en explosiv natt i Ryssland. Förr eller senare påverkas den ryska ekonomin av detta - utöver kriget och sanktionerna - oavsett hur mycket ryssarna ljuger.

Enligt uppgift förstördes även ett ryskt krigsfartyg utrustat med kryssningsrobotar vid den ockuperade halvön. Signaturen "MT Anderson" studerar satellitbilder.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Mars rover mission will use pioneering nuclear power source

Devices that harness the heat produced by the decay of radioactive elements, known as radioisotope heater units (RHUs), allow spacecraft to operate without relying on electricity generated by solar panels to warm them. ESA has historically relied on US or Russian partners to provide RHUs that use plutonium-238 for missions, but since 2009 has been working on its own programme to create radioisotope heaters, as well as batteries that provide electricity.

[...]

ESA’s heater units will not only be a first for Europe, but the first anywhere to use americium-241, a by-product of plutonium decay that packs less power per gram than its predecessor. But americium-241 is more abundant and cheaper, meaning that even if the RHUs require more of the isotope to run, they might be less expensive overall. “Developing and launching a European RHU will be a first for ESA and a major achievement,” says Sutherland.

[...]

ESA had to radically rethink the mission to proceed without the involvement of Roscosmos, which was meant to build the lander. That led ESA to create a new European-designed lander and rely on NASA to fill the remaining holes in the mission plan. According to the agreement, NASA will provide capacity to launch ExoMars in 2028, as well as provide braking engines for the lander. NASA will also provide radioisotope heater units for the rover.

EU:s strategiska autonomi är i högsta grad beroende av egen kärnteknik, och då inte bara kärnvapen. Samtidigt är det Boeings Starliner som står och stampar.

Det där är ju helt irrelevant för tråden. Var vänlig håll sådant borta härifrån.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ukraine Has World’s First Navy Drone Armed With Anti-Aircraft Missiles

Ukraine's uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) are dominating naval combat in the Black Sea. Yet they have, until now, been particularly vulnerable to aircraft. So Russian defenses have emphasized using helicopters and fighter jets to stop them. Now a version armed with two repurposed air-air missiles could change the tide again.

En färsk video visar hur en ukrainsk havsdrönare avfyrar ostyrda raketer. Nästa steg blir styrda raketer som GMLRS eller Brimstone, därefter under vattenytan.

Det där behandlade vi redan här: viewtopic.php?p=419765#p419765

Resten är mest spekulationer.

Den här artikeln i The WarZone ger i alla fall något mer kött på benen: Artillery Rocket-Firing Ukrainian Drone Boat Shown During Testing

De ostyrda raketerna förefaller vara 122mm raketer från det sovjetiska BM-21 Grad systemet. The WarZone är skeptisk till det militära värdet:

Regardless, as TWZ has discussed in the past, the military utility of any kind of unguided rockets launched from a USV is at least questionable.

The Grad is already a fairly inaccurate weapon and firing it from a very small boat as it bobs around on the waves is even less precise. Whatever type of targeting system is used, the chances are the results will be fairly indiscriminate. Presumably, the trajectory of the launch tubes can be altered to change the rockets’ trajectory, but there is still the issue of the lack of stabilization.

While a lack of accuracy on land can be compensated for with steady barrages of much larger numbers of Grad rockets, the same is not an option when launching them from a small drone boat.

“Unguided rockets firing from a shaking platform on the go is just sporadic fire,” a Ukrainian defense official told TWZ earlier this year. “It has little practical value.”

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Nato-termen ISTAR betyder helt enkelt att man (i detta fallet) skaffar sig bra målkoordinater:

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi dies in helicopter crash

The terrible weather on Sunday meant it had been impossible to search for Raisi’s helicopter with aircraft, and rescue teams needed to work on foot, helped by special forces, dog teams and drones. Turkey sent an advanced Akıncı drone and the EU activated its Copernicus emergency satellite mapping network to help with the search, confirmed the bloc’s crisis management commissioner, Janez Lenarčič.

Irans Istar är däremot helt underlägsen - jämför exempelvis iranska drönare med ukrainska dito. Som vanligt fick Erdogan bli räddaren i nöden, om än för sent:

– De konservativa brukar inte vara bra på att ena sig kring en person. Raisi har gjort sig ett namn som en hårdför person. Inför ett val är det avhängigt hur många kandidater Väktarrådet tolererar. De brukar diskvalificera kandidater. Resultatet beror på vem som får ställa upp, tillägger Rouzbeh Parsi.

[...]

Revolutionsgardet har fortlöpande försett Ryssland med kamikazedrönare av typen Shahed–136 under kriget i Ukraina och betecknas som terroristorganisation av Bahrain, Saudiarabien och USA. Oppositionella tystas med fängelse, tortyr, spöstraff och avrättning.

Enligt Amnesty International är Iran det land i världen som avrättar flest människor. Under 2023 avrättades 853 människor, vilket är en 48-procentig ökning från året innan.

Springer-koncernen skriver att en annan slaktare i regionen, den från Tel Aviv, kan räddas av den internationella brottmålsdomstolen ICC innan han kastas ut.

Ännu en explosiv natt i Ryssland. Förr eller senare påverkas den ryska ekonomin av detta - utöver kriget och sanktionerna - oavsett hur mycket ryssarna ljuger.

Östeuropas slaktare tar naturligtvis ingen hänsyn till sin egna befolkning:

Footage of the port of Novorossiysk allegedly from this morning. They celebrate that they struck an UAV, but they spray their own city as well port facilities with hundreds of anti air bullets. Absolutely insane clownery.

Det finns en video på sociala medier som åskådliggör hur en av dessa kulor penetrerade en privatbils motorhuv och dess motor. Det blir svårt att köpa en ny!

Även detta saknar relevans för tråden. Möjligen bortsett från det faktum att Ryssland inte kan förse Iran med moderna luftfartkoster. Men det visste vi ju redan tidigare.

[Enceladus]

Och, som sagt, i den mån problemen med GLSDB är relaterade till den ryska elektroniska krigföringen (LaPlante radar upp en hel mängd olika orsaker) så är det relaterat till själva vapendelen - glidflygbomben GBU-39 - oavsett om den avfyras via en raket (som i GLSDB-kombin) eller flygplansburet (används såvitt känt inte i Ukraina). Ryssarnas UMPK-kit borde i motsvarande mån vara känsliga för elektronisk krigföring.

Ukraine's long-range glide bomb blunted by Russian jamming

But the GLSDB's navigation system, which enables it to be steered around obstacles like mountains and known anti-air defenses, has been targeted by Russian jamming, the three people briefed on he matter said.

While Boeing has said the weapon can defeat some jamming, one of the sources said it would take Boeing months to fix.

[...]

Jamming happens when huge amounts of energy are broadcast into an area, overwhelming a device's signal. Russia has used the tactic on Ukrainian radios, drones and even GPS-guidable Excalibur 155 millimeter artillery munitions.

Reuters bekräftar att problemen med GLSDB är relaterade till den ryska elektroniska krigföringen. ATACMS tycks inte ha några problem alls. S-400 däremot...

A new military era for the US and Kenya, kind of?

The first batch of Ukrainian pilots have graduated from F-16 training at an Arizona military base, a crucial step toward putting modern, American-made fighter jets in Ukraine’s skies, Capt. ERIN HANNIGAN, a spokesperson with the Air National Guard, told our own LARA SELIGMAN.

The pilots had been training at the 162d National Guard Air Force Base in Tucson. Hannigan would not confirm how many have graduated or the exact date of graduation “out of abundance of caution for their safety.”

The pilots are now headed to Europe for additional training, according to a person with knowledge of their movements. Ukraine is slated to receive more than 60 F-16s from Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium.

Ukraina har redan säkrat luftrummet för sina piloter! Det ryska luftvärnet har som bekant visat sig vara chanslöst mot ATACMS...

US will announce $275 million more in artillery and ammunition for Ukraine, officials say

The package includes high mobility artillery rocket systems, or HIMARS, munitions as well 155 mm and 105 mm high-demand artillery rounds, according to the two U.S. officials. Additional items in the aid package include Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank systems; anti-tank mines, tactical vehicles, small arms and ammunition for those weapons, one of the officials said. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide details of the aid package before the public announcement.

Det kan vara en fördel att ha världens största ekonomi på sin sida.