Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh
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Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: onsdag 16 augusti 2023 10:35
Utan Ryssland behövs inget "avtal", eller hur, även om turkskurkarna gärna vill mäkla igen:
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-econom ... icial.html

Däremot måste både lastningsplatser och seglationsvägar säkras. Just nu finns egentligen bara Donauhamnarna tillgängliga, och i vilken omfattning Ryssland avser att ytterligare angripa dessa är förstås oklart. Att Ryssland inte saknar kapacitet till det framgår av den ryska attacken mot SKF:s fabrik i Lutsk, nordost om Lviv (bara drygt 9 mil öster om gränsen mot Polen), samt av detta: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/37 ... aries.html

Passage till/från Odessa måste betraktas som mer chansartad, dessutom är det oklart hur mycket av infrastrukturen för spannmålshantering i denna stads hamn som har förstörts av ryska attacker.

Vattendjupet i farlederna i Donaudeltat sätter som sagt också begränsningar för hur stort tonnage som kan anlöpa dessa hamnar. I regel fordras omlastning till oceangående fartyg (där gränsen sätts av vilka mått som passagen genom turksunden medger - även passage till östersjöhamnar har ju sina begränsningar, som Enceladus-kollektivet kanske minns: viewtopic.php?p=391123#p391123) ex.vis i rumänska Constanta, som ju har infrastruktur för spannmålshantering. Sedan kan man ju inte heller vara helt säker på att fartyg till eller från rumänska eller bulgariska hamnar inte trakasseras av den ryska flottan, även om det förefaller mindre sannolikt. Det skulle i så fall motverkan genom att kursen sätts helt genom resp. lands territorialvatten.

Möjligheten till "military solutions" dvs. någon form av konvojerin,g begränsas av vilka resurser som redan finns hos (Nato-allierade) i Svarta Havet:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_ ... ainian_War
wikipedia skrev:After the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the Ukrainian government appealed to Turkey to exercise its authority under the Montreux Convention to limit the transit of Russian warships from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea. At least six Russian warships and a submarine had crossed the Turkish straits in February.[51] After initial reluctance, attributed to the country's close ties with both Russia and Ukraine,[51] Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu announced on 27 February that his government would legally recognise the Russian invasion as a "war", which provides grounds for implementing the convention with respect to military vessels.[7] This blockage of naval vessels also applies to NATO powers who cannot now move their vessels from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea. However, Çavuşoğlu reiterated that pursuant to the terms of the agreement, Turkey cannot block Russian warships based in the Black Sea from returning to their registered base.[51] Around February 27–28, Turkey refused permission for three out of four Russian warships to enter the Black Sea as their home base was not on the Black Sea.[52]
En RUSI-artikel beskriver varför en regelrätt konvojering inte är någon bra lösning (om den ens är genomförbar) på ovanstående problem:
How Can NATO Overcome Russia’s Black Sea Blockade?
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 18 augusti 2023 12:00
Enceladus skrev: fredag 18 augusti 2023 11:45 Tokmak i år, Melitopol nästa år?
Ja, frågetecknen är många. Historiskt och taktiskt påminner situationen på sydfronten en del om den längs den finsk-ryska fronten under finska fortsättningskriget, från 1941, fram till lillefar Stalins offensiv under 1944. Fast finnarnas försvarslinjer var avsevärt svagare befästa än ryssarnas idag.

Framför allt finns få historiska exempel på så kraftigt minerade försvarslinjer som i Zaporizhia oblast. Franz-Stefan Gady har ju också tidigare sagt att han inte tror att någon annan krigsmakt än USA:s skulle kunna åstadkomma ett mekaniserat genombrott, som situationen är nu:
The WarZone skrev:Gady however was quick to emphasize that “no Western type of military can really do this sort of combined arms operations at scale, with the exception of the United States. But even the United States Armed Forces would have a very difficult time breaking through these defensive layers because no Western military in the world currently has any experience in breaching the types of defenses in depth that the Russians put up, in the south and east of Ukraine.”
Ukraine running out of options to retake significant territory (Washington Post)

As Ukraine counteroffensive gets bogged down, it’s back to the drawing board (Politico)
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: lördag 29 juli 2023 19:55 Orban lägger sig däremot platt för Erdogan. Vad får han i utbyte? Den gemensamma nämnaren mellan Orbanomics och Erdoganomics är skyhög inflation.
Ja, det kan man fråga sig? Som bekant anser han att Ukraina inte längre är ett självständigt land:
https://telex.hu/english/2023/06/27/vik ... gn-country

Erdogan kommer i alla fall att besöka Orbanien inom kort: https://hungarytoday.hu/turkish-preside ... n-hungary/

Bild
Visst är det skönt att vara bland kompisar. De är ju inte så många! Och "Bibi" Netanyahu har händerna fulla på hemmaplan.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 11405
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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A Sickly Ruble Reveals What Putin Will Not
Bloomberg skrev:The ruble is replacing foreign currencies in export revenues, and now accounts for 39%, reducing the net inflow of foreign currency into the country. There is also an imbalance in demand for currencies: exporters need Chinese yuan, while importers want dollars and euros. In previous years, when the ruble dropped significantly in value, foreign funds and global investment banks sprang into action to profit from the situation. Their presence also evened out market fluctuations. Now they are gone, and that means future swings in the exchange rate are guaranteed. This increased volatility weakens the currency's payment and saving functions: People and businesses will cut costs and postpone investments.

[...]

The volatile and weakening ruble exchange rate is testament to just how imbalanced the Kremlin has allowed the economy to become, and that it is already barely coping. When the war ends, the sudden switch in demand from the inflated defense sector back to the civilian sector will be a powerful shock that will be impossible to absorb painlessly. As we know from history, it also proved impossible for Russia’s predecessor, the Soviet Union.
Kan Putin ens avsluta kriget under ordnade former?

Putin Turns to Ruble and Ballot to Shore Up Shaken Authority
Bloomberg skrev:Though many countries have refused to join the US, European Union and allies in imposing sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s having to skip this month’s summit of BRICS leaders, highlighting his international isolation. An arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court has made it risky for the Russian leader to travel, even to friendly countries like South Africa. For nations that had looked to Moscow as a counterbalance to US power on the global stage, Putin is an increasingly problematic bet.

Many within the elite were astonished by his weak response to the mutiny and subsequent failure to punish Prigozhin, stirring unease among officials about the potential for high-level in-fighting or further challenges. Discontent over Russia’s failures on the battlefield is still simmering inside the security establishment.

[...]

Security hardliners want Shoigu replaced as part of a shift toward a more aggressive prosecution of the war, including full-scale mobilization and martial law, according to five people with knowledge of the situation. But there’s no sign so far that they’ll be removed and Russian general Sergei Surovikin, who’s been questioned over the failed mutiny, hasn’t been seen since.

[...]

“Putin himself doesn’t feel he is weakened, he’s convinced he’s at the height of his strength, is sure of himself and full of optimism, even euphoria,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a consultancy. “No one, even in Putin’s closest entourage, can question his decision to stand in the elections.”

[...]

“At a time when it’s unclear what would happen if Putin left,” Petrov said, “it’s in the interests of the elite to keep the status quo.”
Putins ställning har kraftigt försvagats av Prigozjins väpnade uppror, men det saknas alltjämt alternativ. Kampen om Afrika har dock börjat:
Christo Grozev skrev:First, a reminder of the context: at the start of the war, Wagner was not invited to the table. On the assumption of a quick victory for 🇷🇺, generals at MoD and GRU set up their own PMC, both to seize control away from Prigozhin, but also to dip into the (corrupt) funding flows.

[...]

Prigozhin (who offered full-service assistance to his "client states", including spin-doctors, psyops and electoral interference as needed) has created some strong local allegiances in Africa, and won't give them up without a fight.

One thing appears certain: insofar as MoD/GRU need to allocate resources - both focus and 000's of mercenaries - to win over Africa from Prigozhin, this is focus and resources unavailable to them on the ground in Ukraine.
Ukraina tackar återigen för Prigozjins insats. Vidare sägs sanktionerna mot Ryssland ligga bakom kraschen av den ryska månlandaren Luna 25:
Christo Grozev skrev:With no victory in Ukraine, the Kremlin decided it needs a victory on the Moon. Except it crashed there too. Btw, largely due to sanctions - Russia could not procure the all-too-important Astrix 1000 gyroscope, so it has to "product-substitute". Sanctions apparently do work.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 11 783 enheter, varav 2 253 stridsvagnar, 85 flygplan, 102 helikoptrar, 14 strids- och 273 spaningsdrönare.

Således fortsätter det så kallade "folkmordet på det ryska artilleriet". De ryska förlusterna är ständigt cirka tre gånger större än de ukrainska!
Enceladus
Inlägg: 11405
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: söndag 20 augusti 2023 9:40 Ukraine running out of options to retake significant territory (Washington Post)

As Ukraine counteroffensive gets bogged down, it’s back to the drawing board (Politico)
Som bekant försvarar Ryssland varenda tum av ockuperad mark till varje pris. Förlusterna är ohållbara. Förr eller senare bryter försvaret samman:
Ukrainian Front skrev:"Ukrainian units continue to develop their success southeast of Robotyne and south of Malaya Tokmachka. Combat work is ongoing in Robotyne itself," said Malyar, Deputy Minister of Defense of 🇺🇦Ukraine
Enligt flera källor, både ryska och ukrainska, har Robotyne precis befriats.

Two injured in Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow region, nearly 50 flights disrupted
Reuters skrev:At least two people were injured on Monday when parts of a Ukrainian drone destroyed by Russian air defences fell on a house in the Moscow region, the regional governor said.

Nearly 50 plane flights in and out of the capital were disrupted after Russia said it jammed a Ukrainian drone in the Ruzsky district west of the capital and destroyed another one in the Istrinsky district nearby.

Arrivals and departures from Moscow's four main airports - Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo and Zhukovsky - were restricted, disrupting 45 passenger planes and two cargo planes, Russian aviation authority Rosaviatsia said.
Tydligen kraschade en av drönarna i närheten av propagandisten Simonyans hus. Inte ens Putins mest lojala kan känna sig säkra längre!

Ukraine nears deal with global insurers to cover grain ships
Financial Times skrev:Under the cover of Ukrainian onshore defence systems, a German/Chinese-owned cargo ship last week made the first commercial journey out of Odesa since July, when Russia warned it would consider any civilian vessel leaving Ukraine’s ports as military targets. Ukrainian officials believe their missiles can protect a corridor within 100 nautical miles of its coast.

But given the military risks, affordable insurance would be essential to reviving commercial shipping activity at any significant scale. Kyiv is being advised by professional services group Marsh McLennan, which includes consultancy Oliver Wyman and the world’s biggest insurance broker Marsh, on a pro bono basis.

[...]

The details are still to be finalised, but people involved in the discussions said scheme would look to cover vessels going into and out of Ukraine’s ports against damage, and the risk could be shared between insurers and a local state-owned bank.
Ukraina planerar att exportera spannmål utan Rysslands tillåtelse.

Media: Russia, Turkey, Qatar prepare new agreement on grain exports
The Kyiv Independent skrev:The outlet wrote that based on the new deal, Russia would be supplying its grain, primarily to African countries, Qatar would sponsor the supplies, and Turkey would be in charge of organizing the deal.

[...]

The new deal could be reportedly closed as early as this weekend in Budapest, as the head of Russia's Tatarstan Republic Rustam Minnikhanov has already arrived in Hungary's capital, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to come as well, the outlet said.

Following its decision to withdraw from the grain deal on July 17, Moscow wants to plug the whole on the global food market left by the deal's collapse. Ukraine is one of the world's leading grain producers, with many countries in the Global South relying on its exports.
Däremot behöver Ryssland stöd från Turkiet för att göra detsamma!
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: söndag 20 augusti 2023 23:49 Vidare sägs sanktionerna mot Ryssland ligga bakom kraschen av den ryska månlandaren Luna 25:
Christo Grozev skrev:With no victory in Ukraine, the Kremlin decided it needs a victory on the Moon. Except it crashed there too. Btw, largely due to sanctions - Russia could not procure the all-too-important Astrix 1000 gyroscope, so it has to "product-substitute". Sanctions apparently do work.
Påståendet är felaktigt. Redan långt före krigsutbrottet stod det klar att Ryssland inte skulle få använda Airbus Astrix 1000 tröghetsplattform pga. av USA:s teknikexportkontroil, då Astrix innehåller amerikanska komponenter, och har potentiell militär användning:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/06 ... ic-issues/
Bild
Den senaste versionen, Astrix 1090. Man sen inkapslingen av de tre vinkelräta gyroskopen
NSF skrev:Since then, almost everything has gone according to the plan, except with a crucial instrument called BIB, the probe’s inertial measurement unit.

Provided by the Russian company NPO IT – located in the city of Korolyov, not far from ISS Mission Control – the BIB should provide the onboard computer with the necessary information to ensure guidance on the path from the Earth to the Moon.

However, BIB testing at NPO IT showed unexpected results, clearly indicating it was not working properly.

The designers of this system noted it won’t be ready for the 2019 launch window, which resulted in NPO Lavochkin trying to replace it with a European equivalent called ASTRIX, designed by Airbus Defence & Space.

However, the ITAR regulatory regime strictly forbids such a deal, because the ASTRIX has several US components inside.

The only other solution is a system called BIUS-L, developed by Moscow’s NPTs AP. This is equivalent to BIB. However, this system would not be ready for flight before February 2020.
Bild

Bilden ovan sägs visa den egenutvecklade ryska tröghetsplattformen BIUS-L. Det är iofs. inte givet att det var just den som fallerade. Här är lite rysk propaganda om densamma: https://www.mos.ru/en/news/item/128010073/
Senast redigerad av dr Cassandra Nojdh den måndag 21 augusti 2023 14:15, redigerad totalt 1 gånger.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
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Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: måndag 21 augusti 2023 12:24 Ukraina planerar att exportera spannmål utan Rysslands tillåtelse.

Media: Russia, Turkey, Qatar prepare new agreement on grain exports
The Kyiv Independent skrev:The outlet wrote that based on the new deal, Russia would be supplying its grain, primarily to African countries, Qatar would sponsor the supplies, and Turkey would be in charge of organizing the deal.

[...]

The new deal could be reportedly closed as early as this weekend in Budapest, as the head of Russia's Tatarstan Republic Rustam Minnikhanov has already arrived in Hungary's capital, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to come as well, the outlet said.

Following its decision to withdraw from the grain deal on July 17, Moscow wants to plug the whole on the global food market left by the deal's collapse. Ukraine is one of the world's leading grain producers, with many countries in the Global South relying on its exports.
Däremot behöver Ryssland stöd från Turkiet för att göra detsamma!
Ukraina behöver väl inte " Rysslands tillåtelse". Däremot finns ett antal problem som måste adresseras. Detta berörde jag här:
viewtopic.php?p=415155#p415155

Och som sagt, turkskurkarna vill gärna ha ett finger med i spelet, oklart varför, egentligen.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 7520
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: måndag 21 augusti 2023 12:24
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: söndag 20 augusti 2023 9:40 Ukraine running out of options to retake significant territory (Washington Post)

As Ukraine counteroffensive gets bogged down, it’s back to the drawing board (Politico)
Som bekant försvarar Ryssland varenda tum av ockuperad mark till varje pris. Förlusterna är ohållbara. Förr eller senare bryter försvaret samman:
Ukrainian Front skrev:"Ukrainian units continue to develop their success southeast of Robotyne and south of Malaya Tokmachka. Combat work is ongoing in Robotyne itself," said Malyar, Deputy Minister of Defense of 🇺🇦Ukraine
Enligt flera källor, både ryska och ukrainska, har Robotyne precis befriats.
Tja, man väljer ju vad man vill tro på.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 11405
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: måndag 21 augusti 2023 13:49 Påståendet är felaktigt. Redan långt före krigsutbrottet stod det klar att Ryssland inte skulle få använda Airbus Astrix 1000 tröghetsplattform pga. av USA:s teknikexportkontroil, då Astrix innehåller amerikanska komponenter, och har potentiell militär användning:
Kriget startade 2014 med påföljande sanktioner mot Ryssland. Således kan Rysslands försök till en månlandning ha misslyckats på grund av sanktionerna.
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: måndag 21 augusti 2023 14:00 Tja, man väljer ju vad man vill tro på.
Ukraine making progress in counteroffensive, U.S. officials say
CBS News skrev:A U.S. official told CBS News on Thursday that Ukrainian forces have made it through a Russian minefield north of Tokmak and are now engaging with the first line of Russian defenses holding the city.

Recapturing cities like Tokmak, and a further advance on to Melitipol, will be a daunting task for a Ukrainian counteroffensive that has made incremental gains since it launched earlier this summer.
Förutom att konsultera trovärdiga källor som Dan och Uri kan skribenten jämföra de visuellt bekräftade förlusterna för Ryssland respektive Ukraina.
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: måndag 21 augusti 2023 14:25
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: måndag 21 augusti 2023 13:49 Påståendet är felaktigt. Redan långt före krigsutbrottet stod det klar att Ryssland inte skulle få använda Airbus Astrix 1000 tröghetsplattform pga. av USA:s teknikexportkontroil, då Astrix innehåller amerikanska komponenter, och har potentiell militär användning:
Kriget startade 2014 med påföljande sanktioner mot Ryssland. Således kan Rysslands försök till en månlandning ha misslyckats på grund av sanktionerna.
Det twitter-X-rykte som Enceladus-kollektivet återgav handlade just om tröghetsplattformen Astrix 1000, och där säger den källa som jag återger uttryckligen att den stoppades pga. USA:s exportkontroll ITAR: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internati ... egulations

ITAR är inte relaterat tll de sanktioner som twitterryktet (förmodligen) avser.
With no victory in Ukraine, the Kremlin decided it needs a victory on the Moon. Except it crashed there too. Btw, largely due to sanctions - Russia could not procure the all-too-important Astrix 1000 gyroscope, so it has to "product-substitute". Sanctions apparently do work.
Senast redigerad av dr Cassandra Nojdh den måndag 21 augusti 2023 15:13, redigerad totalt 2 gång.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Användarens profilbild
dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 7520
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: måndag 21 augusti 2023 14:25
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: måndag 21 augusti 2023 14:00 Tja, man väljer ju vad man vill tro på.
Ukraine making progress in counteroffensive, U.S. officials say
CBS News skrev:A U.S. official told CBS News on Thursday that Ukrainian forces have made it through a Russian minefield north of Tokmak and are now engaging with the first line of Russian defenses holding the city.

Recapturing cities like Tokmak, and a further advance on to Melitipol, will be a daunting task for a Ukrainian counteroffensive that has made incremental gains since it launched earlier this summer.
Förutom att konsultera trovärdiga källor som Dan och Uri kan skribenten jämföra de visuellt bekräftade förlusterna för Ryssland respektive Ukraina.
Nä, jag "kontrollerar" inga twitter-X-rykten, vars trovärdighet jag inte vet något om. Däremot läser jag ISW dagligen. Ex.vis.

Utöver detta kan man konstatera att Enceladus-kollektivet återkommande använder uttrycket som bekant för att bekräfta sina egna åsikter.
Ex.
Enceladus skrev: måndag 21 augusti 2023 12:24 Som bekant försvarar Ryssland varenda tum av ockuperad mark till varje pris. Förlusterna är ohållbara. Förr eller senare
bryter försvaret samman
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 11405
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

The Nuclear Aged: Europe’s atomic reactors are getting old
Reuters skrev:In some countries — especially for those that planned to exit atomic power entirely after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan — discussion is focused on the short term: eking out a few years to get through any shortages before new wind, solar and gas installations can be built to take over.

Anti-nuclear Germany had planned to switch off its last three plants by the end of 2022, only to grant the sites an emergency extension to April 2023 to make it through winter without Russian gas — which previously made up 40% of EU gas supply.

[...]

Belgium already performed a U-turn this January on its 2025 nuclear phaseout plan, after the war in Ukraine forced the government to rethink increased reliance on natural gas.

[...]

But a licence approval isn’t proof it can be done: The world’s oldest operating reactor, Switzerland’s Beznau 1, will only turn 54 this year.

[...]

In February, Finland’s Fortum obtained permission to operate two reactors until 2050, when they will reach 70 years of age.

In Sweden, where licences are unlimited in time subject to regular safety checks, Vattenfall is considering 80 years of operation for its five reactors.
En utmärkt sammanställning av Europas åldrande reaktorflotta. Men hur länge håller de europeiska reaktorerna? Flera länder ville ersätta med rysk gas...

The failure of Luna 25 cements Putin’s role as a disastrous space leader
Ars Technica skrev:But unlike NASA, China, India, and several companies in the United States and Japan, the Luna 25 effort does not presage the coming of a golden era of exploration for Russia. Rather, it is more properly seen as the last gasp of a dying empire, an attempt by the modern state of Russia, and President Vladimir Putin, to revive old glories.

[...]

But for now, they work. The bigger problem is that there is precious little new hardware in the pipeline. A modern replacement for the Soyuz spacecraft, "Orel," is perpetually five to seven years away from flight, which essentially means never. A replacement space station, ROSS, remains in the vaporware stage of development. And then there is the Soyuz-5 rocket, a three-stage rocket powered by RD-171 engines that will burn kerosene fuel and compete with SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket on price. This vehicle, too, has a future launch date that keeps slipping.

[...]

But perhaps the gravest wound that Putin dealt Roscosmos was installing Dmitry Rogozin, a militant nationalist politician, as its director in 2018. Rogozin brought a pugnacious leadership style into the role, rubbing his Western allies the wrong way. He also was reportedly very corrupt as well, purchasing luxury vehicles and a dacha for himself. Under his leadership, the quality control problems at Roscosmos worsened.

[...]

Things got much worse for the space program when Russia invaded Ukraine. Rogozin took his rhetoric to another level, making frequent threats about how Russia would end its partnership with NASA on the International Space Station. He also used the space program as a platform to promote the war. Eventually, Putin tired of Rogozin's antics and sacked him in July 2022.

[...]

All of this brings us to today. The Russian civil space program is in shambles. Putin has attempted to use smoke and mirrors to convince his population that the country still is a world leader on the global stage for space exploration. But Russia has fallen far behind China in spaceflight. (China landed three probes on the Moon in the last decade, including an ambitious sample return mission in 2020). For the time being, with its human spaceflight capability, Russia remains on par with the European Space Agency and slightly ahead of India. But it could fall behind both in the coming decade, with Japan not far behind, either.
Även Rysslands rymdprogram befinner sig i kris. USA och Kina drar ifrån medan Indien och Japan kommer ikapp. Hur blir det med resten av Europa?

Two Ukrainian drones shot down over Moscow region, flights briefly disrupted - Russia
Reuters skrev:Russia shot down two Ukrainian drones over the Moscow region with no casualties and brought down a further two drones over the Bryansk region that borders Ukraine, the Russian Defence Ministry said on Tuesday.

A Reuters reporter in the town of Krasnogorsk in the Moscow region, seat of the Moscow regional government, saw minor damage to tiling on a high-rise residential building and shattered glass exterior window panes in a few of its apartments.

[...]

Rosaviatsia, Russia's aviation authority, said nine flights had been diverted at Moscow's Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports, but that all of the capital's airports were now working normally.
Drönarattacker mot Moskva har blivit en daglig företeelse. Detta påverkar inte bara flygtrafiken, utan också moralen - kanske företrädesvis i Ukraina.
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: måndag 21 augusti 2023 15:01 Nä, jag "kontrollerar" inga twitter-X-rykten, vars trovärdighet jag inte vet något om. Däremot läser jag ISW dagligen. Ex.vis.
Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say
The New York Times skrev:American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process.

[...]

Nearly three months into the counteroffensive, the Ukrainians may be taking the advice to heart, especially as casualties continue to mount and Russia still holds an edge in troops and equipment.

In a video teleconference on Aug. 10, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; his British counterpart, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin; and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, urged Ukraine’s most senior military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, to focus on one main front. And, according to two officials briefed on the call, General Zaluzhnyi agreed.

Admiral Radakin’s role has been especially important and not widely appreciated until now, the officials said. General Milley speaks to General Zaluzhnyi every week or so about strategy and Ukrainian military needs. But the Biden administration has prohibited senior U.S. officers from visiting Ukraine for security reasons and to avoid increasing tensions with Moscow. Britain, however, has imposed no such constraints, and Admiral Radakin, a polished officer who served three tours in Iraq, has developed close ties with his Ukrainian counterpart during multiple trips to the country.

[...]

“We do not assess that the conflict is a stalemate,” Jake Sullivan, the White House’s national security adviser, said on Tuesday. “We continue to support Ukraine in its effort to take territory as part of this counteroffensive, and we are seeing it continue to take territory on a methodical systematic basis.”

[...]

Several U.S. officials said they expect Ukraine to make it about halfway to the Sea of Azov by winter, when cold weather may dictate another pause in the fighting. The senior U.S. official said that would be a “partial success.” Some analysts say the counteroffensive will fall short of even that more limited goal.

Even if the counteroffensive fails to reach the coast, officials and analysts say if it can make it far enough to put the coastal road within range of Ukrainian artillery and other strikes, it could cause even more problems for Russian forces in the south who depend on that route for supplies.
USA:s senaste bedömning är att Ukraina når delvis framgång. Som bekant har Ukraina tiden på sin sida - detta blir knappast den sista motoffensiven!

Ukraine Chalks Up Small Advance in Southern Push
MSN skrev:Robotyne’s capture by Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade on Tuesday gives Kyiv something to celebrate, after two months of hard fighting, substantial casualties and minimal gains since the long-awaited counteroffensive began.

About 9 miles south of Orikhiv, where Ukrainian forces began their march south, Robotyne is within about 14 miles of Tokmak, a key crossroads on the way south toward Melitopol, which is the biggest Russian-occupied city in the Zaporizhzhia region. Kyiv is hoping its troops can reach the Sea of Azov during the counteroffensive and bisect Russian forces.

[...]

“These Ukrainian troops are being sent to do something we’d never do—launching a counteroffensive without total air superiority,” said Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. Days ago, after months of pleas from Ukraine for fighter jets, the U.S. agreed to let allies transfer F-16s to Kyiv, and the Netherlands and Denmark collectively pledged to send more than 60 of them. However those jets aren’t expected to arrive for months.

[...]

In the months since, Kyiv has adjusted its tactics, with infantry now leading the charge through minefields on foot and tanks supporting from behind, according to soldiers in several brigades fighting in the area. The arrival of American cluster munitions has also boosted the offensive, soldiers said.

[...]

“Psychologically, it was very difficult,” said one 52-year-old woman from Robotyne on a video the brigade published on Tuesday. “We hoped and waited for ours to come…We waited for a long time, and today it happened.”

[...]

The Tu-22M3 BACKFIRE bomber that was likely hit has been used to fire inaccurate antiship missiles against Ukraine, the ministry wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

“This is at least the third successful attack on LRA airfields, again raising questions about Russia’s ability to protect strategic locations deep inside the country,” the ministry wrote, referring to Russia’s Long Range Aviation (LRA).
Robotyne har äntligen befriats! Vidare ryktas det om att Norge ger sina F-16-plan istället för att sälja till Draken International - utöver de nämna 60 planen.
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Enceladus skrev: tisdag 22 augusti 2023 20:15 USA:s senaste bedömning är att Ukraina når delvis framgång. Som bekant har Ukraina tiden på sin sida - detta blir knappast den sista motoffensiven!
Var vänlig använd inte uttrycket "som bekant" för att legitimera de egna åsikterna. Ovanstående är en fullt respektabel åsikt, men likväl en åsikt. Vad framtiden kan komma att föra med sig är inte bekant - för någon.

Som en allmän kommentar kan man säga att det är fullt förståeligt om Ukrainas generalstab vill visa upp framgångar på slagfältet, men det får inte bli pyrrus-segrar, speciellt inte på personalsidan. Personal är den enda resurs Ukrainas partnerländer inte kan ersätta och Ukrainas försvarsmakt kan inte och ska inte behandla sin personal som de ryska angriparna. En historisk parallell är fältmarskalken Bernard Montgomerys försiktiga hantering av sin personal mot slutet av WW2, efter det katastrofala misslyckandet i operation Market Garden i Nederländerna hösten 1944.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: tisdag 22 augusti 2023 20:15 Vidare ryktas det om att Norge ger sina F-16-plan istället för att sälja till Draken International - utöver de nämna 60 planen.
Det där ryktet har väl varit i omlopp rätt länge nu:
https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2023/ ... o-ukraine/
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
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Russia names new air force chief after mutiny-related disappearance of 'General Armageddon' - RIA
Reuters skrev:Russian news outlet RBC and Rybar, a Telegram channel close to the Ministry of Defence, on Tuesday reported that Surovikin had been removed from his position as the head of Russia's air force.

On Wednesday, RIA cited an unnamed source as saying: "Ex-chief of the Russian Air and Space Forces Sergei Surovikin has now been relieved of his post, while Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov, head of the Main Staff of the Air Force, is temporarily acting as commander-in-chief of the Air Force".
Lojalitet framför kompetens. Tydligen har Peskov också försvunnit efter ett olyckligt uttalande om rysk demokrati.
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: onsdag 23 augusti 2023 10:09 Som en allmän kommentar kan man säga att det är fullt förståeligt om Ukrainas generalstab vill visa upp framgångar på slagfältet, men det får inte bli pyrrus-segrar, speciellt inte på personalsidan. Personal är den enda resurs Ukrainas partnerländer inte kan ersätta och Ukrainas försvarsmakt kan inte och ska inte behandla sin personal som de ryska angriparna. En historisk parallell är fältmarskalken Bernard Montgomerys försiktiga hantering av sin personal mot slutet av WW2, efter det katastrofala misslyckandet i operation Market Garden i Nederländerna hösten 1944.
Både Ukraina och ISW rapporterar att ukrainska styrkor närmar sig ockupanternas andra försvarslinje vid Robotyne (här är en karta över försvarslinjerna):
Feher_Junior skrev:The Armed Forces were successful in the direction of Novodanilivka and Novoprokopivka — General Staff

[...]

Analysts from ISW report that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are approaching the second line of defense of the occupiers, which may be weaker than the first.
Vidare uppger UK att broarna mellan södra Ukraina och Krymhalvön alltjämt är ur bruk, vilket tvingar ockupanterna att använda landkorridoren genom Armjansk. Ukraina spelar det klassiska Jenga-spelet. Putins torn av klossar välter förr eller senare.
Enceladus
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Enceladus skrev: fredag 23 juni 2023 11:26 Frågan är vad en organisation bestående av två rivaler och tre misslyckade stater kan uträtta.
C Raja Mohan writes: Don’t fall for China’s rhetoric – BRICS isn’t NAM
The Indian Express skrev:The story about the BRICS expansion, however, is not about the organisation’s efficiency or effectiveness. It is about the political intentions of China, which is championing expansion. Beijing sees BRICS as a political platform to mobilise the non-Western world in its rivalry with the US. Balancing the US was also the original motivation for Moscow in promoting the BRICS. Russia turned a marketing gimmick from Goldman Sachs — which clubbed some of the growing markets at the turn of the century into an attractive acronym — into a political organisation.

The Chinese and Russian logic in countering the US is understandable. The problem begins when innocents worldwide want to conflate Sino-Russian geopolitical games with the interests of the “Global South”. Associating BRICS with the Global South and imagining this week’s summit at Johannesburg as a “new Bandung” does great disservice to the origin and evolution of the non-aligned movement. The presence of several friends of BRICS, and many African special invitees does not make Johannesburg comparable to the gathering of the Afro-Asian leaders in Bandung, Indonesia, in 1955. Quite the opposite. One of the principal objectives of the Bandung movement that morphed into NAM eventually was to stay away from rivalrous power blocks — the US-dominated Western one and the Eastern one led by Soviet Russia. The BRICS, in contrast, is led by one of the competing power blocs — the Sino-Russian alliance.

Beijing and Moscow want to squeeze the BRICS, which began as a forum to limit the dangers of the “unipolar moment” and promote a “multipolar world”, into a bipolar confrontation with the West. The Global South had a different provenance. If NAM was about avoiding East-West rivalry, the Global South addressed the contradictions between developing countries and the developed world, or the Global North. But today, China is the world’s second-largest economy, and its capital has made great strides in penetrating the Global South. The claim that Chinese capital is more altruistic than Western capital or that the Yuan-dominated world economy would be more benign than the dollar-denominated does not stand scrutiny. Some in the developing world argue that China’s rough and ready “neocolonialism” is worse than Western “imperialism” tempered over the centuries.

[...]

The talk of China overtaking the US economy has now been relegated to the distant future, if ever. Over the last two years, Washington has mounted relentless pressure against Beijing with its economic and technological measures. It has put together new strategic coalitions on China’s periphery — including the Quad (with Australia, India and Japan), the AUKUS (Australia and the UK), and the trilateral coalition with Japan and South Korea. Thanks to Washington’s added support, Manila, which has been long at the receiving end of Beijing’s bullying, is standing up.
De neutrala indierna blir allt mindre neutrala. Här beskrivs Ryssland som en allierad till Kina, och därmed en fiende till Indien. Första duellen tycks vara om månens sydpol, en duell som Ryssland redan har förlorat:
PBS NewsHour skrev:Mikhail Marov, a 90-year-old scientist who played a prominent role in planning the earlier lunar missions and worked on the Luna-25 project, was hospitalized after its failure.

[...]

Years earlier, Russia hoped to buy the main navigation device for the lunar mission from Airbus, but couldn’t due to restrictions blocking the technology transfer. In the end, it developed its own equipment that delayed the project and weighed twice as much, reducing the scientific payload for the spacecraft that weighed 1,750 kilograms (over 3,800 pounds).

[...]

“It raises doubts about Russia’s claims of a great power status in the eyes of the global community. Many would decide that Russia can’t fulfill its ambitions either in Ukraine or on the moon because it lives not by its modest current capability but rather fantasies about its great past,” he said. “People as well as countries want to side with the strong who win, not the weak who keep making excuses about their defeats.”
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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 23 augusti 2023 12:46
PBS NewsHour skrev: Years earlier, Russia hoped to buy the main navigation device for the lunar mission from Airbus, but couldn’t due to restrictions blocking the technology transfer. In the end, it developed its own equipment that delayed the project and weighed twice as much, reducing the scientific payload for the spacecraft that weighed 1,750 kilograms (over 3,800 pounds).
Det där skrev jag om redan här: viewtopic.php?p=415164#p415164
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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India beats Putin in race to moon’s south pole
POLITICO skrev:"India is now on the moon," declared India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi via videolink from a summit of global leaders in South Africa.

[...]

India is now the fourth country to place a spacecraft on the lunar surface after the United States, Soviet Union and China, but the first to do so on the especially treacherous and crater-filled south pole, where scientists believe there's water.

[...]

“This is just the next step in India’s methodical long-term lunar science program,” said Bleddyn Bowen, an author on outer space and space policy at the University of Leicester. “Whatever prestige and soft power the Indian government will want to draw from this will be contrasted with the dramatic failure of Russia’s Luna-25.”

[...]

New Delhi has also signed on to the U.S.-drafted Artemis Accords, an aspirational set of rules for space exploration and exploitation of raw materials on the moon.
Landningen är en stor prestigeseger för Indien – särskilt som Ryssland så sent som häromdagen misslyckades i ett liknande landningsförsök. Detta trots att Rysslands expedition hade mer än dubbelt så stor budget. Clownen Rogozin förnekar USA:s månlandning. Blir det samma sak med Indiens månlandning?

Russian scientist urges transparency after Luna-25 crashes into Moon’s surface
AeroTime skrev:The Russian mission was hoping to reach the lunar surface before the Indian Chandrayaan-3 mission, which took off on July 14, 2023.

According to economist Konstantin Sonin of the University of Chicago, Russia’s grandiose Luna-25 project was set to fail, as it is being carried out when ambitious scientists and intellectuals throughout the country are being persecuted.

“This Luna-25 was a Putin’s vanity project amid constant repression of intellectuals, a war on science and education that has government waged, a war on international cooperation that they waged even before they started an actual war,” he wrote in a post on X (formerly known as Twitter) after the crash.
Som sagt, Putins kleptokrati sätter prestige och lojalitet framför vetenskap och kompetens. Somliga jämför det ryska fiaskot med Tjernobylkatastrofen.
Senast redigerad av Enceladus den onsdag 23 augusti 2023 16:49, redigerad totalt 3 gång.
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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 23 augusti 2023 16:41 Landningen är en stor prestigeseger för Indien – särskilt som Ryssland så sent som häromdagen misslyckades i ett liknande landningsförsök. Detta trots att Rysslands expedition hade mer än dubbelt så stor budget. Clownen Rogozin förnekar USA:s månlandning. Blir det samma sak med Indiens månlandning?

Russian scientist urges transparency after Luna-25 crashes into Moon’s surface
AeroTime skrev:The Russian mission was hoping to reach the lunar surface before the Indian Chandrayaan-3 mission, which took off on July 14, 2023.

According to economist Konstantin Sonin of the University of Chicago, Russia’s grandiose Luna-25 project was set to fail, as it is being carried out when ambitious scientists and intellectuals throughout the country are being persecuted.

“This Luna-25 was a Putin’s vanity project amid constant repression of intellectuals, a war on science and education that has government waged, a war on international cooperation that they waged even before they started an actual war,” he wrote in a post on X (formerly known as Twitter) after the crash.
Som sagt, Putins kleptokrati sätter prestige och lojalitet framför vetenskap och kompetens.
Det får vara hur det vill med den saken, bara indierna hittar vatten på Månen. :) :)
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 23 augusti 2023 12:02 Russia names new air force chief after mutiny-related disappearance of 'General Armageddon' - RIA
Reuters skrev:Russian news outlet RBC and Rybar, a Telegram channel close to the Ministry of Defence, on Tuesday reported that Surovikin had been removed from his position as the head of Russia's air force.

On Wednesday, RIA cited an unnamed source as saying: "Ex-chief of the Russian Air and Space Forces Sergei Surovikin has now been relieved of his post, while Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov, head of the Main Staff of the Air Force, is temporarily acting as commander-in-chief of the Air Force".
Lojalitet framför kompetens. Tydligen har Peskov också försvunnit efter ett olyckligt uttalande om rysk demokrati.
Jaha, har Putin gjort sig av med Prigozhin också?
Yevgeny Prigozhin listed as passenger of plane crashed in Tver Region TASS

Flygolyckor är bra att ha, ungefär som när när general Alexander Lebed störtade 2002: viewtopic.php?p=407823#p407823
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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