Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

F-16 Modernization Increasingly Important For Turkey As Greece Gradually Gains Unprecedented Airpower Advantage

Turkey is gradually coming to terms with the reality that the Greece's air force could soon field a more technologically advanced fighter fleet in just a few years.

"If our project to modernize the F-16 aircraft fails and Greece realizes its own projects, the Greek side will gain the upper hand in terms of combat aircraft in 2025," said retired Turkish Air Force commander General Abidin Unal. "Therefore, our program to procure 40 F-16 Viper aircraft and modernize up to 80 F-16s is vital."

Kan Turkiets beroende av västerländsk teknologi tvinga Erdogan att kompromissa?

US Senator Menendez says he has not changed opposition to Turkey F-16 sale

Menendez has long opposed the potential sale of the F-16s to Turkey over issues including Turkey's resistance to the ratification of Sweden's NATO membership, concerns about human rights abuses and Turkish overflights of Greek airspace.

[...]

"Sweden still hasn't received a vote from Turkey even though Erdogan said, 'Yes, OK, Sweden should be in.' He could have called the parliament. He could have had the vote. He hasn't had it," Menendez said.

Menendez also cited concern about Turkey's relations with Greece, asking, "How does it work for us to have one NATO ally be belligerent to another and someone sell them F-16s?"

Ju längre Erdogan drar ut på tiden, desto bättre blir Greklands flygvapen. Tiden är inte på Erdogans sida.

Ungerska regeringspartiet kan bojkotta omröstning

– Fidesz vill bara skicka signal till Turkiet att vi är med och vi bryter inte vårt avtal att följa era instruktioner. Vi har hört att ni inte godkänt Sverige än och det ska vi inte göra nu, inte än, säger Anamaria Dutceac Segesten.

[...]

– Opposition har kallat till det här extrainkallade mötet för att visa sig vara pro-västerländsk, pro-demokratisk, pro-EU, pro-Nato och att samla poäng för sig själv. Att visa för sin ungerska publik och andra EU-länder att de är ”the good guys”, säger Anamaria Dutceac Segesten.

[...]

– Det kan betyda så lite som att Ungern röstar två veckor innan Turkiet. Jag tror inte att de är ledande i den här frågan. De har avstått från att driva frågan och har lämnat det åt Turkiet.

Orban lägger sig däremot platt för Erdogan. Vad får han i utbyte? Den gemensamma nämnaren mellan Orbanomics och Erdoganomics är skyhög inflation.

Explainer: Who is Salwan Momika, the infamous Iraqi who burnt the Quran in Sweden and headed a militia

Entifadh Qanbar, President of the Future Foundation Washington DC, tweeted that Momika was a member of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a paramilitary force backed by Iran.

"In this video, he identifies himself as a member of Iraqi Christian/Iran proxy militia formed by the IRGC 'Katae'b Rooh Issa' or 'The Spirit of Jesus Brigades' under the Command of Katae'b Imam Ali," Qanbar claimed.

Försöker även Iran stoppa Sveriges Nato-medlemskap?

With Starlink, Elon Musk’s Satellite Dominance Is Raising Global Alarms

Other governments are wary. Taiwan, which has an internet infrastructure that could be vulnerable in the event of a Chinese invasion, is reluctant to use the service partly because of Mr. Musk’s business links to China, Taiwanese and American officials said.

[...]

Mr. Musk had other red lines that he would not cross. He refused Ukraine’s request last year to provide Starlink access near Crimea, the Russian-controlled peninsula, so it could send an explosive-filled maritime drone into Russian ships docked in the Black Sea, two people familiar with the discussions said. Mr. Musk later said that Starlink could not be used for long-range drone strikes.

Other U.S. officials have weighed in. In June, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin approved a Pentagon deal to buy 400 to 500 new Starlink terminals and services. The deal gives the Pentagon control of setting where Starlink’s internet signal works inside Ukraine for those new devices to carry out “key capabilities and certain missions,” two people familiar with the deal said. This appeared intended to provide Ukraine with dedicated terminals and services to conduct sensitive functions without fear of interruption.

Den demokratiska världen behöver pålitligare alternativ än Elon Musks Starlink!

BRICS bank NDB says not considering new projects in Russia

Saudi Arabia to Host Ukraine Peace Talks as Part of Western Effort to Woo Global South

Saudi Arabia is set to host peace talks among Western countries, Ukraine and key developing countries, including India and Brazil, early next month, as Europe and Washington intensify efforts to consolidate international support for Ukraine’s peace demands.

According to diplomats involved in the discussion, the meeting would bring senior officials from up to 30 countries to Jeddah on Aug. 5 and 6. It comes amid a growing battle between the Kremlin and Ukraine’s Western backers to win support from major developing countries, many of which have been neutral over the Ukraine war.

Ukraine and Western officials hope the efforts could culminate in a peace summit later this year where global leaders would sign up to shared principles for resolving the war. They hope that those principles could frame future peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to Kyiv’s advantage.

Saudiarabien skulle verkligen kunna sätta press på Ryssland genom att öka sin oljeproduktion.

[Enceladus]

Wagner troops moving towards Polish border and could try sneaking across, PM says

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Saturday that his government had received information that the Wagner mercenaries were not far from Grodno, a city in western Belarus close to the land, which is also known as the Suwalki gap or corridor.

[...]

Analysts feared in the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that the Kremlin would target the Suwalki corridor in an attempt to protect Kaliningrad, Russia’s westernmost territory and the only part of the country surrounded by EU states.

It is not clear exacttly how many Wagner troops are in Belarus. They were invited to the country as part of a deal negotiated by the Belarus president to end the mercenary group’s armed insurrection against the Kremlin last month.

Polens premiärminister varnar för att ett hundratal Wagnersoldater har förflyttats till gränsområdet i västra Belarus. CNN har också ett klipp om Prigozjin.

Enligt proryska medier tar sig migranter över den fem och en halv meter höga muren mellan Polen och Belarus medelst enkla bågfilar. Är Wagner inblandad?

Exclusive: Russia’s Spies Say Putin Faces More Coups

“Everyone in the Ministry of Defense and in the government as a whole is already tired of this war and would like to stop it,” the source said. “You can feel the discontent , so I expected something similar could happen by autumn. The fact that Prigozhin turned out to be at the head of the rebellion is surprising, but he would never have done such a thing if he had not understood that there would be those in the GRU leadership who would support him.” This echoes statements anonymous Western intelligence officials have made in the past several weeks about the existence of a Russian fifth column.

Enligt GRU-källor är ett nytt kuppförsök mot Putin troligt. Prigozjin visade vägen!

Russian inflation is raging at 60%, not the reported 3.6%, thanks to the ruble's 'freefall', top economist Steve Hanke says

Spectre of hyperinflation hangs over Putin as Russian economy crumbles

Pressure is building on multiple fronts: the rouble has plunged, driving up the cost of imports; a tight labour market is driving high wage growth; and government spending is further boosting demand just as sanctions are constraining supply.

[...]

Steve Hanke, a Professor of Applied Economics at The Johns Hopkins University, argues that annual inflation in Russia is already at 60pc.

[...]

Increases in the Bank Rate will push up government debt-servicing costs. If inflation hits 8pc, yields on government debt would likely rise to around 14pc, says Peach, putting further pressure on the public purse.

Enligt ekonomen Steve Hanke har Ryssland egentligen en 60 procents inflation på årsbasis, vilket sägs bero på en brant nedgång i rubelns växelkurs.

Ukraine's NATO membership would be bad for Putin, but great for the Russian economy, professor says

In that period, Putin kept Russia insulated from global financial markets which resulted in economic stagnation, Konstantin said, estimating lost output from 2009 to 2022 amounts to 10%-15% of GDP.

The war on Ukraine has made the situation worse, shifting Russia's economy toward regressive import substitution and spurring a mass exodus of skilled workers. That comes after Western sanction largely shut out Russia from global finance and cut off top export markets.

"To be sure, bringing Ukraine into NATO would not undo the damage Putin has inflicted on the Russian economy," he said. "But it would be much harder to justify prioritizing military production over economic growth once the war ends. Ensuring Ukraine's safety would also make it easier, faster, and safer to reintegrate Russia into global markets, accelerating its economic recovery and ensuring that post-war Russia will not exploit its trade ties to fund future aggression."

Lösningen på Rysslands bekymmer kan ironiskt nog vara ett ukrainskt medlemskap i Nato som skulle tvinga ryska ledare att lägga mindre pengar på krig!

[Enceladus]

Ovanstående kan man tolka lite som man vill. Min uppfattning om vad Trump menar har hela tiden varit densamma - land mot fred. Ukraina måste avstå från det landområden ryssarna ockuperat. Ryssland måste nöja sig med vad de roffat åt sig hittills.

Trump calls for conditioning Ukraine aid on congressional Biden probes

Former president Donald Trump called on congressional Republicans to withhold military support for Ukraine until the Biden administration cooperates with their investigations into the president and his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings.

[...]

In 2019, Trump spoke on the phone with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and responded to his plea for missiles to help the country resist Russia’s invasion by saying, “I would like you to do us a favor though.” Trump went on to ask Zelensky to assist in finding Democratic National Committee emails that were, without substantiation, purported to be in Ukraine. He also asked Zelensky to talk to his lawyer Rudy Giuliani and Attorney General William P. Barr about investigating Hunter Biden.

The phone call led to a whistleblower complaint that prompted an impeachment inquiry. Trump stonewalled the proceedings and was impeached for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The Senate acquitted him in February 2020, with Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) joining the Democrats.

Trump has insisted his phone call with Zelensky was “perfect,” a claim he repeated at Saturday's rally.

Trump tycks inte längre vara kategoriskt emot militärt stöd till Ukraina. Detta kan bero på färska opinionsmätningar - eller att Trump vill ha en gentjänst.

För övrigt, vad menar skribenten med "nöja sig med vad de roffat åt sig hittills"? Ryssland har konsekvent förlorat landområden under det senaste året:

Moore offered an upbeat assessment of the battlefield situation in Ukraine, noting that Kyiv’s forces had taken back more ground in the past month than the Russians had done in a year. And he issued a warning to African leaders who are relying on Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner PMC mercenary army, to keep them in power.

“If Russian mercenaries can betray Putin, who else might they betray?” he said in the speech, the only public one he plans to give this year.

Samtidigt fortsätter Ukraina att avancera söder om Velyka Novosilka från tre olika håll:

A UA channel related to the 46th Airmobile Brigade (not the official one, but run by fighters) report that:

AFU has advanced towards Pryyutne (they are on the outskirts) and are pressing the flanks of Urozhaine. AFU reached the road between Novodonets'ke and Kermenchyk.

Nu är det väl bara en tidsfråga innan Urozhaine befrias, om nu uppgifterna på sociala medier stämmer.

Putin is looking for a bigger war, not an off-ramp, in Ukraine

Things likely look very different to the Kremlin, which believes that it can afford a long war. The Russian economy is forecast to record modest growth this year, mostly thanks to military factories working around the clock. Critical components such as microchips needed for the defence industry are arriving from China and other sources.

Despite sanctions, the Kremlin’s war chest is still overflowing with cash, thanks to windfall energy profits last year and also to the adaptability of Russian commodities exporters, who have found new customers and who settle payments mostly in yuan. If budgetary pressures were to become more acute, Russia’s central bank could further devalue the rouble, making it easier to pay soldiers, defence industry workers and the internal security forces who keep the Russian elite and public repressed and largely in line with Putin’s disastrous course.

When it comes to the war itself, the Kremlin still seems unperturbed by the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Even if Kyiv makes more advances, the Kremlin may brush them off as temporary. Putin is banking on the fact that the Russian manpower that can potentially be mobilised is three to four times bigger than Ukraine’s, and the only pressing task is to be able to tap into that resource at will: to mobilise many more men, arm them, train them and send them to fight. This is precisely the purpose of the new law, which should help the Kremlin to avoid another official mobilisation.

Med vilken ekonomi? Västvärldens biståndsbudgetar vida överstiger Rysslands försvarsbudget. Ändå förlitar sig Putin på Rysslands förmenta uthållighet.

[Enceladus]

Oavsett hur paranoid banditen Lukashenko är så eldar ju Putin på med lämplig fantasiretorik om "det agressiva och revanschistiska" Polen, som vill "ta tillbaka" allt land öster om den sk. curzon-linjen, landområden som förlorades efter WW2, när lillefar Stalin flyttade hela Polen västerut.

Med facit i hand har Polens anti-imperialistiska inställning gentemot Ukraina gett betydligt bättre resultat än Rysslands imperialistiska...

Second Russia-Africa Summit Lays Bare Russia’s Waning Influence

Four years later, however, even political experts loyal to the Kremlin have concluded that the positive boost to Russia-Africa relations in 2019 has not been realized. Trade volumes have not only not doubled, they have actually decreased. And Russia’s direct investment in Africa is currently about 1 percent of the total inflow.

Moscow has also managed to damage its own reputation. This is clear from polling in Africa and by voting patterns at the UN. The cause is not only Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, but also the controversy surrounding the Wagner mercenary army, which is active across the continent. Wagner has regularly been accused of human rights violations and of seeking only to protect the African business interests of its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Indeed, Prigozhin’s activities in Africa increasingly resemble those of a military-trading company from the eighteenth or nineteenth century, combining military power with a nominal loyalty to its mother country while exploiting accessible material riches. Wagner’s modus operandi and the imperial nature of Russia’s war in Ukraine devalues Putin’s rhetoric about the fight against neocolonialism, and discredits Russia in the eyes of many Africans.

Få resultat kom ut av det två dagar långa toppmötet mellan Ryssland och Afrika. Däremot är det klart att Rysslands inflytande minskar. Afrika uppskattar inte imperialism! Sydafrikas president Ramaphosa kunde inte vara tydligare: "Vi är inte här för att vädja om donationer till den afrikanska kontinenten."

Ukrainian Armed Forces announces successful strike on Chonhar Bridge

ISW explains why Russia is silent on Ukraine's attack on Chonhar Bridge

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that the Kremlin has instructed Russian "milbloggers" (military bloggers) not to cover disruptions in critical land lines of communication, including the attack on the Chonhar Bridge by the Ukrainian Defence Forces.

Enligt ISW försöker Kreml etablera en bild av att den ukrainska motoffensiven är misslyckad. Har Putin äntligen lyckats få kontroll över sina militärbloggare? En färsk bild visar emellertid omfattande skador på denna kritiska järnvägsbro som förbinder den ockuperade landbryggan med den ockuperade halvön:

It is now absolutely certain that the rail bridge of Chonhar connecting Russian-occupied Crimea with the remaining Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast has been severely hit.

You can also see from the picture that the strike was quite precise, hitting the the steel structure next to the supporting hill at the northern end of the bridge.

That bridge is most certainly out of action for the remainder of this war.

Nya satellitbilder bekräftar skadorna. Dessutom har en rysk motoffensiv vid Svatove kulminerat. Ukraina har redan återerövrat det mesta!

[Enceladus]

Dessutom är Biden ju katolik och spelar nog inte poker.

Graham warns Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine would be an attack on NATO

Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.), a prominent Senate Republican defense hawk, warned Monday that a Russian nuclear attack against Ukraine would be viewed as an attack on NATO, even though Ukraine is not a member of the alliance.

Graham delivered his warning after former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia would “have to” use nuclear weapons if Ukrainian forces threaten Russian territory.

[...]

“Imagine if the offensive, which is backed by NATO, was a success and they tore off part of our land, then we would be forced to use a nuclear weapon, according to the rules of a decree from the president of Russia,” Medvedev said in the article, making a reference to Russia’s nuclear doctrine that would authorize a nuclear response if Russia’s territory is threatened by a conventional attack.

Det finns hökar på bägge sidor!

Poland sending more troops to border after Belarus helicopters violate airspace

Poland will increase the number of troops at its border with Belarus after two helicopters from Belarus violated the country's airspace today, the ministry of defence said in a statement.

[...]

"Accusations of a violation of the Polish border by Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and air defence forces are farfetched and made by the Polish military and political leadership to justify the build-up of forces and means at the Belarusian border," the ministry said.

Earlier today, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko taunted Poland over the presence of Russian Wagner mercenaries near the NATO country's border, saying Warsaw should thank him for keeping them in check.

Två belarusiska helikoptrar kränkte Polens luftrum. Belarus förnekar dock anklagelserna. Är Wagnergruppen på dåligt humör igen?

HIMARS knocking out Russian infantry from Dzharylhach island

The HIMARS rocket launchers of the Ukrainian army attacked the Russian infantry on the island of Dzharylhach in the Kherson region.

[...]

The video shows the lining up of five Russian infantry units on the island.

[...]

The distance from Dzharylhach to the nearest territories controlled by Ukraine is 70 km. From the spit of the island – about 60 km.

Det föreställer luftbrisader där raketer detonerar vid en viss höjd för att skapa större skador med det splitter som frigörs. Ukrainas Istar är helt överlägsen.

Ukraine maps show the price of allies’ hesitation

Whether it is worries about escalation, or worries about supply shortages, the smart bet in Washington is that the long-range missiles, like the tanks and the cluster munitions before them, will ultimately be delivered.

If the last year of the conflict has shown anything, it’s that this kind of vacillation is costly. It not only squanders additional Ukrainian lives, but it also makes a protracted, grinding conflict more likely.

Ukraine’s allies have long recognized the frantic pace at which Russia has been building defenses in occupied territory. But this realization had little bearing on the speed of their own decision-making. That needs to change. Instead of uncomfortably looking on as Ukraine’s counteroffensive devolves into a slow war of attrition, Western leaders should become more proactive.

Som sagt, för lite och för sent.

End of the line for Russia and Ukraine’s partnership in rocketry

This is how Northrop Grumman has launched most of its 19 resupply missions to the space station since 2013, but this week's mission will be the last Antares flight to use Russian and Ukrainian components. Northrop Grumman has partnered with Firefly Aerospace, which has already built and launched a small satellite launcher of its own, to develop a new US-built first stage to replace the Ukrainian booster. Firefly will supply seven of its own engines, called the Miranda, to propel each of the new-generation Antares rockets into space.

Sanctions introduced after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 severed most ties between Western companies and Russian industry, not to mention the deteriorating political support for such partnerships. It strained the relationship between the United States and Russia on the ISS, but for now, that program appears poised to continue flying through at least 2030.

Northrop Grumman lost access to the Russian RD-181 engines it was importing from a Moscow-area company called Energomash, one of Russia's pre-eminent rocket engine manufacturers. And the effects of the fighting in Ukraine threatened to interrupt the production of new Antares rocket bodies at a factory operated by Yuzhmash in Dnipro. The factory itself has been the target of Russian missile strikes.

Slutet på en era, men början på en ny. Europa kan ha nytta av Ukrainas rymdkompetens. Landets stolthet Sergej Koroljov ligger bakom det sovjetiska arvet.

[Enceladus]

Som sagt, den där Ilham Aliyev är allt en slug -el.

Karabakh blockade reaches critical point as food supplies run low

That changed on December 11. On that day, a group of Azerbaijani demonstrators appeared on the road in front of Shusha, claiming to be protesting ‘ecological damage’ caused by mining activity in Karabakh. They promptly established a camp blocking the road, refusing to allow through any traffic except Red Cross trucks with humanitarian aid or the occasional Russian peacekeeping video. In April, Azerbaijan took the next step to make the blockade more permanent, establishing a checkpoint on the road on the Hakkari river near the Armenian border. Occasional ICRC and Russian traffic continued to pass until June 15, at which point Azerbaijan halted all humanitarian deliveries. No food, medicine or fuel has entered Nagorno-Karabakh since.

Azerbaijan has repeatedly refused to heed international calls to open the road. The US, EU and other countries have called multiple times since December for open traffic to be restored on the road. In February, the International Court of Justice issued a ruling ordering Azerbaijan to “take all measures at its disposal to ensure unimpeded movement of persons, vehicles, and cargo along the Lachin Corridor in both directions.” For more than five months, that has gone ignored. As EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell noted on July 26, “movement through the Lachin corridor remains obstructed for more than seven months, despite Orders by the International Court of Justice to reopen it.”

Amidst all of this, Russia’s peacekeeping forces have been absent or complicit in each Azerbaijani move. The 2,000 servicemen Moscow stationed in the region following the 2020 trilateral ceasefire agreement were entrusted with maintaining the free movement of people and goods along the Lachin corridor. Instead, the Russian peacekeepers have appeared wilfully impotent at each stage of the blockade. Russian peacekeepers stood by as the original Azerbaijani ‘eco-activists’ blocked the road; they then took no measures as Azerbaijan established its checkpoint within metres of a Russian position in April. Nagorno-Karabakh authorities, who have thus far been largely deferent to the Russians who are all that stand between them and Azerbaijani forces, have become more outspoken against Moscow in recent weeks. “We are calling now for Russia specifically to fulfill its obligations [under the November 2020 agreement],” Harutyunyan said during the July 24 press conference. “We’ve always been cautious in our statements, expressed our gratitude to the Russian leadership for putting an end to the war, but [Azerbaijan] is shooting every day, firing at people in the fields. The [Russian] peacekeepers are responding [to this], but it doesn’t stop,” he added.

Absolut. Aliyev utnyttjar Rysslands oförmåga - liksom ovilja - att bistå Armenien. Situationen riskerar emellertid att utvecklas till en humanitär kris.

Exclusive: New insights point to Hungary’s collaboration with Moscow on transfer of Ukrainian POWs

So far, five of the 11 Ukrainian POWs in question have returned to Ukraine. According to Petro Yatsenko, spokesperson for the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, they eventually made contact with the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, which organized their transport by car across the land border.

The whereabouts of the remaining six, who could in theory have relocated to other countries in the Schengen zone, as of Aug. 1 could not be confirmed by Ukrainian officials, who said they are still trying to organize their return to Ukraine.

[...]

For both sides, according to the sources interviewed, the main aim was to publicly discredit Ukraine by painting a picture of ethnic Hungarian soldiers made to fight for Kyiv against their will, and under threat of being sent back to the front or even court-martialled if they returned to Ukraine.

Orban är däremot inte lika slug på den internationella arenan. Han skapar många fiender utan att få något i utbyte.

Kupp i Niger kan förlänga beroende av ryskt uran

Omkring 15 procent av det uran som används för att driva Frankrikes kärnkraftverk kommer från gruvor i den forna kolonin. Men det nya militärstyret i Niger har meddelat att den mångåriga uranexporten till Frankrike nu ska stoppas.

Det statliga franska energibolaget Orano uppger att deras verksamhet än så länge fortgår som vanligt. Och energidepartementet i Paris säger sig inte se några omedelbara risker för kärnbränslebrist. Uran kan köpas från andra länder och de franska lagren ska räcka i två år, försäkrar man.

[...]

Niger är världens sjunde största uranproducent och stod för omkring en fjärdedel av EU:s totala import av naturligt uran 2021. Nästan lika mycket importeras från Ryssland.

Efter Moskvas anfallskrig mot Ukraina har EU varit angeläget om att fasa ut beroendet av rysk olja och gas. Men när det gäller uran har importen fortsatt utan begränsningar. Rysslands dominerande ställning på världsmarknaden när det gäller anrikat uran har gjort det svårt att kringgå landet.

[...]

Efter kuppen i Niger har antifranska protester brutit ut och demonstranter har setts vifta med ryska flaggor. Bedömare spekulerar i om Niger kommer att följa grannlandet Malis exempel och kasta ut de franska styrkorna och i stället vända sig till den ryska paramilitära Wagnergruppen för militärt samarbete.

EU fasar ut beroendet av olja och gas. Uran är dock en annan femma. Sverige sägs ha EU:s största tillgångar på uran, men svensk uranbrytning är förbjuden.

F-16 questions remain as Ukrainian pilots set to start training this month

The US is still waiting for European officials to submit a final plan for training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, which the US will have to authorize before the program can actually begin, officials familiar with the matter told CNN.

[...]

It is also still unclear which countries will commit F-16s to the training program – and to Ukraine itself once the program is finished. Transferring the planes to Ukraine will require separate US approval.

[...]

The course itself is expected to be conducted in Denmark and Romania, with help from the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Sweden and the UK, officials have said. But the details, including the dates, locations, and length of the syllabus “are still being worked out,” National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby said during a briefing last week.

Dessutom har Ukrainas allierade ännu inte rett ut alla frågetecken kring F-16-planen. Träningen har alltså inte börjat än.

Russia strikes Ukraine's Danube port, sending global grain prices higher

Russia attacked Ukraine's main inland port across the Danube River from Romania on Wednesday, sending global food prices higher as it ramps up its use of force to prevent Ukraine from exporting grain.

The attacks destroyed buildings in the port of Izmail and halted ships in their tracks as they prepared to arrive there to load up with Ukrainian grain in defiance of a de-facto blockade Russia reimposed in mid-July.

[...]

Erdogan's office said he and Putin agreed that the Russian leader would soon visit Turkey. Putin, wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, has made no official visits abroad this year, and has left former Soviet territory only once since launching his invasion - a day trip to Tehran more than a year ago. Erdogan has long said he hopes to host Putin and convince him to rejoin the grain deal.

Spannmålshamnen i staden Izmajil, som ligger vid floden Donau, utsattes i natt för en rysk drönarattack. Vidare ska Erdogan och Putin träffas i Turkiet.

[Enceladus]

Man kan ha olika uppfattningar - här som i alla (i nästan alla andra sammanhang). Det kan man argumentera och resonera kring. Klarar man inte av att inse det gör man bäst i att hålla tyst, istället för att förfalla till floskler som "värsta mardröm".

Richard Haass tycks nu ha insett det orimliga i att förhandla med Putin innan det amerikanska presidentvalet är överstökat:



Vidare beskriver han vänskapen mellan Ryssland och Kina som kärlekslös snarare än gränslös. Dessutom sägs Kina inte vilja alienera Europa.

Baltics agree to unplug from Russian power grid in February 2025

According to the agreement between Litgrid, AST and Elering, the grids will be disconnected from the Russian-controlled BRELL system and connected to the continental European grid in February 2025.

[...]

Under the 2018 agreement signed between the Baltic leaders and the European Commission, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia must synchronise their grids with continental European power networks by the end of 2025.

Lithuania was seeking to speed up the process and complete it by the first half of 2024, but Latvia and Estonia objected.

Om två år ska de baltiska staterna synkroniseras med det kontinentaleuropeiska synkronområdet - ett stort steg mot energioberoende från Ryssland.

Joe Biden to ask Congress to fund Taiwan arms via Ukraine budget

The White House will ask Congress to fund arms for Taiwan as part of a supplemental budget request for Ukraine, in an effort to speed up the supply of weapons to the country amid the rising threat from China.

[...]

Packaging support for Taiwan, which has very strong bipartisan support in Congress, into the Ukraine budget may help the administration and pro-Kyiv Republicans win over members who might otherwise be opposed.

“Adding supplemental funding for Taiwan will put some House Republicans in a more difficult position since many who oppose Ukraine funding remain in favour of supporting Taiwan,” said Zack Cooper, an Asia security expert at the American Enterprise Institute think-tank.

Stödet till Ukraina kopplas ihop med Taiwan för att minska motståndet i USA:s kongress. Även Biden är en slug räv!

Russian rouble tumbles to over 16-month low past 94 vs dollar

The Russian rouble tumbled over 2% to a more than 16-month low past 94 against the dollar on Wednesday, pressured by political risk, falling oil prices and concerns the finance ministry may switch to foreign currency purchases this month.

By 1609 GMT, the rouble was 2% weaker against the dollar at 94.16, earlier hitting 94.32, its weakest point since March 28, 2022.

It had lost 1.8% to trade at 103.00 versus the euro, also a more than 16-month low, and had shed 1.8% against the yuan to 13.07.

Rubelraset fick Rysslands centralbank att göra en rejäl räntehöjning, men uppskovet varade inte så länge. För närvarande fortsätter raset.

Det går inte att önsketänka bort Rysslands inflytande i Syrien:

These strategic concerns, motivated by fear of expanding Iranian influence, impacted Syria primarily in relation to pipeline geopolitics. In 2009 - the same year former French foreign minister Dumas alleges the British began planning operations in Syria - Assad refused to sign a proposed agreement with Qatar that would run a pipeline from the latter's North field, contiguous with Iran's South Pars field, through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and on to Turkey, with a view to supply European markets - albeit crucially bypassing Russia. An Agence France-Presse report claimed Assad's rationale was "to protect the interests of [his] Russian ally, which is Europe's top supplier of natural gas".

Niger Coup Puts $13 Billion Nigeria-Europe Gas Pipeline Project In Jeopardy

A $13 billion project aimed at constructing a gas pipeline connecting vast gas fields in Nigeria to Europe faces a threat following the recent coup d’état in Niger.

[...]

Last June, during a meeting in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital, energy ministers from Algeria, Nigeria, and Niger agreed to expedite the development of the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline (TSGP).

Once operational, this pipeline could carry 30 billion cubic meters of gas exports annually from the three countries to Europe.

Nu går det inte heller att önsketänka bort Rysslands inflytande i Niger.

En intressant reflektion av Martin Kragh: Ett storkrig är inte längre otänkbart

Efter den alltmer kaotiska utvecklingen av kriget i Ukraina har världen närmat sig en farlig fas. Ett krig mellan Ryssland och Nato, liksom mellan Kina och USA, är inte längre uteslutet.

Det ansluter - fastän inte lika explicit - till Arkadij Babtjenkos uppfattning.

A Leader of Niger’s Coup Visits Mali, Raising Fears of a Wagner Alliance

The Wagner group has about 1,500 troops in Mali, allied with the military regime there. Its founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, has praised the coup in Niger and offered Wagner’s services to the new rulers, though it is unclear what operational control he still has over the group after his failed mutiny in Russia in June.

[...]

More than a dozen West African defense chiefs convened in Nigeria on Wednesday to discuss their response to the takeover in Niger. Their nations’ organization, the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, has threatened military action against the coup leaders if Mr. Bazoum isn’t reinstated by next Monday.

Niger’s neighbors to the west, Burkina Faso and Mali, both ruled by military juntas, said they would consider any military intervention against Niger as an act of war against them. That has raised fears of a broad regional conflict, though analysts say it is unlikely in the short term.

Ett storkrig är inte längre otänkbart, uppenbarligen inklusive Afrika. Enligt sociala medier mobiliserar Nigeria soldater på gränsen till Niger.

[Enceladus]

France may soon overtake Russia as the world’s No. 2 arms exporter

The war has been “a humbling showcase for Russian military technology”, wrote Cullen Hendrix, an international affairs professor at the University of Denver, in a May contribution to Foreign Policy magazine. “Images of ‘headless’ tanks and reports of high failure rates for Russian missiles may be part wartime propaganda, part reality … Whatever the reasons, the war in Ukraine has not been a particularly compelling advertisement for Russia’s leading-edge military technology."

Some clients have also been disappointed with Russian products in recent years. As the world’s largest arms importer, India has a decades-long relationship with Russian arms suppliers. “India is not particularly happy with what they have received, in technical terms, from Russia,” Wezeman said. “So they have turned to France.”

Political considerations are also important, said Wezeman. “Since the beginning of the war [in Ukraine] India has been reluctant to increase or sustain military relations on a high level” with Moscow.

[...]

For his part, Wezeman thinks it’s a very real possibility. “It may be possible that in 2024, 2025 or 2026, France becomes equal to – or surpasses – Russian arms exports.”

Det är i princip bara en tidsfråga innan Frankrike blir världens näst största vapenexportör. Macron tackar Putin för att frivilligt dra sig ur marknaden.

Turkmen airline suspends Moscow flights over safety concerns

Turkmenistan's flagship airline has suspended flights to Moscow, it said on Wednesday, citing safety concerns after Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian capital.

"Due to the situation in the Moscow air zone, and based on a risk assessment in order to ensure flight safety, all Turkmenistan Airlines flights on the Ashgabat-Moscow-Ashgabat route will be suspended," the airline said in a statement.

[...]

The drone attacks prompted Vnukovo, one of Moscow's airports, to close briefly but it later resumed full operations.

Ukrainas drönarattacker mot Moskva har uppenbarligen gett resultat. Hur mycket isolering tål Rysslands elit?

Russia Struggles To Spin Crimea Failures

Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces from Ukraine in 2014, has been hit by a number of explosions in recent weeks amid an ongoing counteroffensive by Kyiv.

[...]

The think tank said the Russian General Staff may fear that milbloggers reporting on strikes in the Black Sea peninsula are "fueling negative perceptions of Gerasimov's competence," as well as possibly fueling panic in Crimea. In contrast, "Russian authorities may feel comfortable letting more local officials such as Sobyanin take the fall for attacks on Moscow and other Russian cities."

Ukraine has said it was behind both attacks on the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine hasn't claimed responsibility for strikes inside Russia. However, Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of the national security and defense council of Ukraine, said on Thursday that Kyiv has the right to strike on Russian territory with weapons of its own production.

Under de senaste veckorna har det varit förvånansvärt många attacker mot Putins kronjuvel - den sedan 2014 ockuperade halvön. En stor prestigeförlust.

ATACMS Ballistic Missile Fired In Australia For The First Time

ATACMS, more broadly, has become something of a household name in the past year or so thanks to persistent calls from Ukrainian officials and their supporters elsewhere around the world for deliveries of these missiles to help the war effort against Russia. Ukraine's armed forces have received HIMARS and MLRS launchers as part of previous aid packages from the United States and other countries, but have so far only gotten guided 227mm artillery rockets to go with them. The U.S.-supplied HIMARS launch vehicles have reportedly been specially modified to prevent them from being able to launch ATACMS missiles.

[...]

The validity of the fears of an especially serious Russian response is very much up for debate, especially given the long-range strike weapons Ukraine has already gotten from the West, including Storm Shadow cruise missiles from the United Kingdom. Additional concerns about operational security may be somewhat mitigated by the fact that ATACMS is something of a known quantity after some three decades of service, including combat use during the First Gulf War in 1991 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003

[...]

Lockheed Martin is still making ATACMS missiles, but for export customers like Australia. What capacity the company might have right now to fulfill significant rush orders for Ukraine is unknown.

USA:s rädsla för att skicka ATACMS till Ukraina borde minska efter alla ukrainska attacker mot den ockuperade halvön. Låt Polen eller Rumänien exportera!

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 11 533 enheter, varav 2 199 stridsvagnar, 84 flygplan, 100 helikoptrar, 12 strids- och 267 spaningsdrönare.

[Enceladus]

Exclusive: Russia’s Spies Say Putin Faces More Coups

A Drawn-Out Ukraine War Opens New Risks for China

Xi is expected to dispatch Chinese peace envoy Li Hui to a Ukraine-backed international conference aimed at outlining the terms of a possible peace deal, according to European and U.S. officials. That would mark a significant shift, as Beijing stayed away from the group’s first meeting, held in Copenhagen in June.

[...]

Xi hasn’t reacted publicly to the challenge Putin appeared to face during the Wagner rebellion, but analysts say it likely rattled him. The policy newsletter GZERO Daily recently outlined why China’s leader might be compelled to press Moscow to end the war: “He’s giving Putin the ‘off ramp’ the Russian president can’t (or won’t) create for himself,” it said.

[...]

The fizzling of the Wagner revolt and the limited progress of Ukraine’s offensive may give China’s leader, Xi, near-term comfort, according to Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at Washington think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies. But, he said, that is temporary: “With prominent Chinese theorists speculating that time may no longer be on Putin’s side, Xi must now grapple with losing the very great-power clash he set in motion against the West.”

Sent ska syndaren vakna. Xi alltså - Putin sover alltjämt. Vidare har högt uppsatta militärer inom Kinas raketstyrka bytts ut och utrikesministern sparkats.

Could China take Kuril Islands claimed by Japan and Russia?

In a different article, the paper suggests that further military setbacks or civil unrest could topple Putin's regime. That, in turn, could lead to a breakup of the country as remote federal republics seek independence from Moscow. In this scenario, Japan might be able to strike a deal with the new government that administers the disputed islands, offering economic assistance for the return of the territory.

Even if Putin is not deposed, the thinking goes, he may be willing to exchange the islands for assistance if international sanctions remain in place for years.

[...]

Japanese analysts note that Beijing has recently started to refer to Russian Far East cities by their former Chinese names. This includes the port city of Vladivostok and the island of Sakhalin. The island, with its 7 million Russian inhabitants, would stand little chance of resisting a potential Chinese invasion on its own.

Ryssland riskerar att förlora Kurilerna - en lång rad av öar som både Ryssland och Japan gör anspråk på. Kina har tidigare visat intresse för Vladivostok:

Military capabilities built for one scenario can usually be used in others. The Chinese government has kept quiet about it, but Radio France International reported in March 2023 that China’s Ministry of Natural Resources had issued new guidelines for maps, requiring the addition of old Chinese names alongside Russian geographical names in eight places along the Russian-Chinese border, including Vladivostok, which should now be referred to as Haishenwai. As if bowing to Beijing, Moscow has said it will open the port of Vladivostok to Chinese transit trade for the first time in 163 years. Russia gained control of the bay on which it built that port and the rest of Outer Manchuria in 1860 during the Second Opium War while threatening to torch Beijing. Xi might well conclude that Chinese honor could more easily be restored—and his place in history assured—by recovering a province lost to Russia than by risking a world war over Taiwan.

Nu spekuleras det i att Kina också vill ha Kurilerna. Nöjer sig Xi med Vladivostok?

Iran Calls On The West To End Arms Supplies To Ukraine

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Thursday called for halting Western supply of weapons to Ukraine, saying it will lead to more death and damages.

[...]

However, government media in Tehran has displayed clear support for Russia and the government or Islamic Republic officials have never condemned Moscow attacks on civilians. So far, Russia has used hundreds of Iranian-made drones against Ukrainian civilian and infrastructure targets.

"We believe that it is a source of great concern that the United States and some Western countries keep arming Ukraine," he added.

Snacka om att kasta sten i glashus. Snart kanske mullorna börjar predika om kvinnors rättigheter.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Inlägget flyttat: viewtopic.php?p=414952#p414952

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

F-16 Modernization Increasingly Important For Turkey As Greece Gradually Gains Unprecedented Airpower Advantage

Turkey is gradually coming to terms with the reality that the Greece's air force could soon field a more technologically advanced fighter fleet in just a few years.

"If our project to modernize the F-16 aircraft fails and Greece realizes its own projects, the Greek side will gain the upper hand in terms of combat aircraft in 2025," said retired Turkish Air Force commander General Abidin Unal. "Therefore, our program to procure 40 F-16 Viper aircraft and modernize up to 80 F-16s is vital."

Kan Turkiets beroende av västerländsk teknologi tvinga Erdogan att kompromissa?

US Senator Menendez says he has not changed opposition to Turkey F-16 sale

Menendez has long opposed the potential sale of the F-16s to Turkey over issues including Turkey's resistance to the ratification of Sweden's NATO membership, concerns about human rights abuses and Turkish overflights of Greek airspace.

[...]

"Sweden still hasn't received a vote from Turkey even though Erdogan said, 'Yes, OK, Sweden should be in.' He could have called the parliament. He could have had the vote. He hasn't had it," Menendez said.

Menendez also cited concern about Turkey's relations with Greece, asking, "How does it work for us to have one NATO ally be belligerent to another and someone sell them F-16s?"

Ju längre Erdogan drar ut på tiden, desto bättre blir Greklands flygvapen. Tiden är inte på Erdogans sida.

Ja, men Erdogan befinner sig - till skillnad från - Putin - inte i krig och kommer inte att komma i väpnad konflikt med sin Nato-allierade Grekland, oavsett hur mycket det skramlas med vapnen och förs hotfull retorik. Det vet Erdogan, och han har inte så bråttom som han låter påskina, eftersom det inte finns något krigshot mot Turkiet. Däremot kanske Turkiet måste tagga ned en del, eftersom konflikten med Grekland till stor del är fabricerad och aldrig kommer att tillåtas bryta ut i öppet krig. Så skillnaden i "airpower" har i realiteten ingen betydelse och "the Greek side will gain the upper hand" mest turkisk retorik.

Turkiet arbetar dessutom målmedvetet på att bygga upp en egen vapenindustri, och så länge Erdogan inte tänker dra ut i krig (annat än i Syrien, förstås) är tiden på hans sida. Däremot är förstås Turkiet beroende - åtminstone inledningsvis - av tillgång till västerländsk know-how och västerländska komponenter.

Grekland däremot, är helt beroende av vapenimport.

[Enceladus]

Ukraina svarar med samma mynt: Russia and Ukraine warn each other travelling ships part of war

In response to threats from Moscow, Kyiv has warned that all ships calling at Russian-controlled ports in the Black Sea “may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military cargo with all the relevant risks”.

Det är naturligtvis fullt tänkbart. Men ryssarna har ju något större marina resurser i Svarta Havet, om man säger så.

Ukraine announces war risk area in waters of six Russian ports

Ukraine has announced a war risk area in the waters of Russian ports on the Black Sea. This follows from the Coastal Warning of state-owned institution Derzhhydrographiya.

"War risk area. The water area of the internal and external roads of the ports of Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi, Taman," the statement on the website of Derzhhydrographiya of the State Maritime and River Transport Service says.

[...]

On the eve of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced that all ships, regardless of the flag, which will be sent to Ukrainian ports from midnight, July 20, Russia will be considered as involved in a military conflict.

Landstigningsfartyget Olenegorskyj Gornjak och tankfartyget Sig visar hur det kan gå för fartyg som trotsar varningen. Vem erbjuder försäkring?

Russia’s Rusty Oil Tanker Fleet Sets Sail With Newer Ships

China, one of the top consumers of Russian and Iranian oil, recently ramped up checks on older tankers at the key port of Qingdao, forcing some to wait more than a month to unload their cargo. Anxiety over aging ships was heightened when a 26-year old vessel exploded off Malaysia in May.

Singapore has also detained tankers for failing safety inspections at a record clip in recent months. Newer vessels, provided they are well maintained, should help to allay fears by some importers over their seaworthiness, though the fleet remains awash with vintage ships.

“Safety concerns surrounding older vessels is one of the reasons that buyers are opting for newer vessels,” said Rebecca Galanopoulos Jones, a senior analyst at VesselsValue.

Ryssland kan behöva förhandla med Ukraina om att få exportera sitt spannmål!

Aleksej Miller eller Gennadij Timtjenko är som att välja mellan pest eller kolera. Novatek har i alla fall inte en paramilitär grupp som krigar i Ukraina...

How Russian Billionaires Provide Mercenaries to the Russian Army

Oleg Deripaska, Leonid Mikhelson, Gennady Timchenko, and other businessmen recruit volunteers for the war on salaries. In the meantime, their businesses, which is involved in this — Rusal, Novatek, PIK, Mospromstroy — successfully avoid sanctions.

[...]

This company is Russia’s second largest natural gas producer after Gazprom. Its main owners are billionaires Leonid Mikhelson and Vladimir Putin’s friend Gennady Timchenko, both of whom are under sanctions. Sanctions affected Novatek only partially — the U.S. authorities imposed a ban on any financing of the company for more than 14 days (which caused difficulties with the financing of the project Yamal LNG). However, in 2022, Novatek only increased its liquefied gas supplies to Europe and, according to Reuters calculations, may soon overtake Gazprom in this indicator.

[...]

The same thing was happening at the federal level. Yevgeny Prigozhin in an interview mentioned PMCs associated with Gazprom. Battalion Uran reported that it was supported by Roscosmos. Verstka found a company that recruits volunteers for Russian Railways. All of these were state companies. As it turned out, private ones are no different from them.

Uppenbarligen förser Gennadij Timtjenko också den ryska armén med legosoldater. De är alltså lika goda kål­supare. Undvik helt enkelt rysk gas i allmänhet!

Ukrainska kvinnor använder dejtingappar för att lura desperata ryska soldater. Tydligen är pengar ett vanligare motiv än ideologi.

5 000 kvinnor strider mot ryssarna vid fronten

Till skillnad från män kan kvinnor inte tvingas att tjänstgöra i armén, men andelen har växt sedan den första ryska invasionen 2014 och var år 2020 uppe i över 15 procent. 18 månader efter den fullskaliga invasionen tjänstgör 60 000 kvinnor, 5 000 av dem vid frontlinjen, enligt det ukrainska försvarsdepartementet.

[...]

Enligt Huovinen har Ryssland väldigt få kvinnor i sin armé. Han menar att den ukrainska armén har påbörjat en resa där män och kvinnor förenas i kampen för samhället.

[...]

Johan Huovinen tror att ökningen av kvinnor inom armén i det långa loppet kommer att gynna Ukraina.

Till skillnad från Ryssland har Ukraina ett stort antal kvinnliga soldater, även vid frontlinjen. Dessvärre förekommer sexistiska attityder.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ovanstående kan man tolka lite som man vill. Min uppfattning om vad Trump menar har hela tiden varit densamma - land mot fred. Ukraina måste avstå från det landområden ryssarna ockuperat. Ryssland måste nöja sig med vad de roffat åt sig hittills.

Trump calls for conditioning Ukraine aid on congressional Biden probes

Former president Donald Trump called on congressional Republicans to withhold military support for Ukraine until the Biden administration cooperates with their investigations into the president and his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings.

[...]

In 2019, Trump spoke on the phone with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and responded to his plea for missiles to help the country resist Russia’s invasion by saying, “I would like you to do us a favor though.” Trump went on to ask Zelensky to assist in finding Democratic National Committee emails that were, without substantiation, purported to be in Ukraine. He also asked Zelensky to talk to his lawyer Rudy Giuliani and Attorney General William P. Barr about investigating Hunter Biden.

The phone call led to a whistleblower complaint that prompted an impeachment inquiry. Trump stonewalled the proceedings and was impeached for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The Senate acquitted him in February 2020, with Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) joining the Democrats.

Trump has insisted his phone call with Zelensky was “perfect,” a claim he repeated at Saturday's rally.

Trump tycks inte längre vara kategoriskt emot militärt stöd till Ukraina. Detta kan bero på färska opinionsmätningar - eller att Trump vill ha en gentjänst.

För övrigt, vad menar skribenten med "nöja sig med vad de roffat åt sig hittills"? Ryssland har konsekvent förlorat landområden under det senaste året:

Det var väl en av Enceladus-kollektivets mest obegåvade frågor hittills - och det vill inte säga lite.

Ingen vet vad Trump egentligen menar (kanske inte ens han själv) med "settle" och det är väl så han vill ha det. En möjlig tolkning av "settle" - ung. "göra upp", är att Trump vill framtvinga ett vapenstillestånd och att Ryssland därefter i en framtida fredsuppgörelse får behålla det land som befinner sig på den ryska sidan av demarkationslinjen - oavsett vad denna befinner sig vid tiden för vapenstilleståndet.

Så enkelt vad det alltså, men det var tydligen för svårt att fatta. Eller också var det ytterligare ett av Enceladus-kollektivets lögnaktiga försök att framställa mig som putinist.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

En provocerande opinionsartikel, speciellt när Ukraina snart befriar Andriivka, Klishchiivka och Kurdyumivka. Dessutom vill ingen förhandla med terrorister.

Förutsättningarna för en förhandlingsfred har beskrivits på ett bra sätt i denna artikel:
The war will end with Diplomacy. But here's why it won't be soon.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ukraina svarar med samma mynt: Russia and Ukraine warn each other travelling ships part of war

Det är naturligtvis fullt tänkbart. Men ryssarna har ju något större marina resurser i Svarta Havet, om man säger så.

Ukraine announces war risk area in waters of six Russian ports

Ukraine has announced a war risk area in the waters of Russian ports on the Black Sea. This follows from the Coastal Warning of state-owned institution Derzhhydrographiya.

"War risk area. The water area of the internal and external roads of the ports of Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi, Taman," the statement on the website of Derzhhydrographiya of the State Maritime and River Transport Service says.

[...]

On the eve of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced that all ships, regardless of the flag, which will be sent to Ukrainian ports from midnight, July 20, Russia will be considered as involved in a military conflict.

Landstigningsfartyget Olenegorskyj Gornjak och tankfartyget Sig visar hur det kan gå för fartyg som trotsar varningen. Vem erbjuder försäkring?

Alla vet att militära fartyg inte är försäkrade.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Kina föreslår fred.

Ja, stackars Onkel Xi. Hur ska han nu manövrera? Den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen vill ha ett slut på kriget så att man kan fortsätta att göra affärer, dra in exportinkomster och fortsätta bygga upp krigsmakten för att utmana USA i Stilla Havet, tvinga in de (syd)ostasiatiska länderna i sin intressesfär och i förlängningen erövra Taiwan. Samtidigt vill man inte ha någon regimförändring i Moskva, och framför allt inte något som visar sig mindre diktatoriskt än den nuvarande Putin-regimen.

Överordnad kravställare är förstås Kinas kommunistiska parti, och partiets uttolkare i politbytåns ständiga utskott. Den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen ser bara till sina egna intressen.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Putin can’t count on his friends in Italy anymore

When Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni walks into the Oval Office on Thursday, her transformation will be complete.

Gone is the ghoulish caricature of an extremist monster, sympathetic to Moscow, whose party was descended from fascists, and in her place stands a pragmatic conservative willing to do business with a grateful international mainstream.

For U.S. President Joe Biden and Ukraine’s backers in the West, securing Meloni’s long-term commitment to the war effort is vital: Italy will assume the leadership of the G7 next year, at what’s likely to be a critical time in the conflict.

Putins bundsförvant Berlusconi är död och Meloni har visat sig vara mer västvänlig än någon kunde ana. Hur många av Putins gamla vänner lever än?

Politicos formulering "pragmatic conservative willing to do business with a grateful international mainstream" säger väl mer om den amerikanska uppfattningen av konservatism än om Meloni och hennes parti. Men framför allt visar det hur en högerextremist lyckas tvätta sig rumsren, något som det finns exempel på närmare än Italien. Hennes ställning i högerkoalitionen har ju stärkts av Berlusconis död och det faktum att hon manövrerat ut fascisten Matteo Salvini till posten som Vice premiärminister, men hennes Fratelli d'Italia har ändå bara 26% av rösterna. Sedan nedanstående bild togs har Meloni lyckats manövrera ut gubbarna, och det ordentligt också. Där ser man vad en kvinnas list kan åstadkomma!



Meloni är en utpräglad opportunist som, liksom Polens högerextrema regering men till skillnad från dum- i Budapest, har fattat att hon måste stå på rätt sida i historien. På så sätt får hon fria händer att omvandla Italien till sin egen version av Orbanien, utan att någon lägger sig i. Egentligen är
både Meloni och Orban uttalade trumpister och väntar båda på The Donalds återkomst, men Meloni är avsevärt smartare.




Fast sådana här bilder vill hon nog helst glömma

Meloni tillsammans med fascisten Steve Bannon

Det här ser bättre ut, eller hur:


Så till den milda grad att Enceladus-kollektivet verkar ha skrivit in sig i hennes fanclub. Vem vet, Fratelli d'Italia kanske accepterar utländska medlemmar också. Fast sådär jättemycket har ju inte Italien bidragit med: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-agai ... t-tracker/

[Enceladus]

Yale-professorn Jeffrey Sonnenfield konstaterade redan förra året att det lönar sig att lämna Ryssland så fort som möjligt. Tyska Uniper drog en nitlott.

European companies suffer €100bn hit from Russia operations

Moscow’s decision to seize control of the Russian businesses of gas importers Fortum and Uniper in April, followed by the expropriation of Danone and Carlsberg last month, suggests more pain lies ahead, according to analysts.

[...]

“Even if a company lost a lot of money leaving Russia, those who stay risk much bigger losses,” said Nabi Abdullaev, partner at strategic consultancy Control Risks. “It turns out that cut and run was the best strategy for companies deciding what to do at the start of the war. The faster you left, the lower your loss.”

[...]

“Companies still there would be better off just writing the business off. I don’t think anyone is secure,” she said. “What was the pretext for appropriating Carlsberg? Is it really a national security issue? I don’t think so.”

Inte bara Uniper drog en nitlott. Sonnenfield hade rätt - det lönar sig att lämna Ryssland så fort som möjligt. Ibland är det lönsamt att göra det rätta.

Russian Tourists Visiting Occupied Crimea Drop By Nearly Half Following Bombings

Hotel bookings fell 45 percent in the second half of July compared with the first two weeks of the month, Russian daily Kommersant reported, citing representatives of the tourism industry. Hotel occupancy is now hovering around 50-60 percent, experts said.

Ukraine on July 16 damaged the bridge connecting Russia with Crimea for the second time in nine months. With commercial air transport to Crimea from Russia halted amid the war in Ukraine, the 19-kilometer bridge had become the main way for Russian tourists to arrive on the peninsula.

[...]

Crimean hotels have slashed prices by as much as a quarter to attract more tourists. However, they may have little impact, as Kyiv perfects its drone capabilities and steps up attacks on the peninsula and Russian territory.

Under de senaste veckorna har den ryska turismen på den ockuperade halvön halverats till följd av allt fler ukrainska attacker. Vågar Tyskland ge Taurus nu?

How Germany's Taurus Missile Could Help Ukraine Retake Crimea

Ukraine could be on the cusp of getting Germany's Taurus long-range cruise missiles, possibly giving Kyiv the edge it needs to move its ongoing counteroffensive firmly into Russian-controlled Crimea.

As German politicians in Chancellor Olaf Scholz's own party speak up in favor of providing Taurus missiles to Ukraine—something Kyiv has been requesting for months—attention is turning to the longer-range capabilities Taurus and U.S.-made ATACMS ballistic missiles could provide.

[...]

Storm Shadow missiles manage to penetrate the first layer of the bridge, but fail to critically damage its structure, Hoffmann said. The Taurus, however, could have a secondary warhead which detonates once the initial blast gets through the first layer, he said. The second warhead "explodes in the pillar, which then of course maximizes the destructiveness and can really cause significant damage to a bridge."

"This is one area where the Taurus could provide a qualitative edge," Hoffmann said, adding the Storm Shadows are "90 percent the same missile" as the Taurus.

Enligt experter finns det områden där Taurus kan ge ett kvalitativt försprång jämfört med de vapensystem som Ukraina redan har. Tonläget är hoppfullt.

[Enceladus]

Kina föreslår fred.

Ja, stackars Onkel Xi. Hur ska han nu manövrera? Den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen vill ha ett slut på kriget så att man kan fortsätta att göra affärer, dra in exportinkomster och fortsätta bygga upp krigsmakten för att utmana USA i Stilla Havet, tvinga in de (syd)ostasiatiska länderna i sin intressesfär och i förlängningen erövra Taiwan. Samtidigt vill man inte ha någon regimförändring i Moskva, och framför allt inte något som visar sig mindre diktatoriskt än den nuvarande Putin-regimen.

Överordnad kravställare är förstås Kinas kommunistiska parti, och partiets uttolkare i politbytåns ständiga utskott. Den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen ser bara till sina egna intressen.

Ukraine calls Jeddah talks productive, Russia calls them doomed

A senior Ukrainian official said on Sunday that talks in Saudi Arabia to make headway towards a peaceful settlement of the war with Russia had been productive, but Moscow called the meeting a doomed attempt to swing the Global South behind Kyiv.

More than 40 countries, including China, India, the United States, and European countries, but not Russia, took part in the Jeddah talks that ended on Sunday.

[...]

The participation of China, which stayed away from an earlier round of talks in Copenhagen and has shunned Western calls to condemn Russia's invasion, signalled a possible shift in its stance but not a major change, analysts said.

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[Zelenskiy's head of staff Andriy Yermak] said all the countries present had demonstrated a commitment to the principles of international law and respect for the sovereignty and inviolability of the territorial integrity of states.

Ukraina säger att fredsmötet i Saudiarabien var meningsfullt medan Ryssland hävdar motsatsen. Det diplomatiska kriget går lika dåligt som det militära.

Russia, Ukraine, and Poland: The End of a Tragic Triangle

It would be too simplistic to claim that the Russian aggression is based on its skewed rendering of history, although a heavy bias of history policy does color the worldview in the Kremlin. The idea that Russia is either an empire or it doesn’t exist is being repeated ad nauseam by Russian propagandists. Even more outlandish are statements that without Putin there is no Russia. Zbigniew Brzezinski’s astute observation catches the essence: “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.” The same logic motivated the imperial German General Staff in supporting Ukrainian separatists, just as it sponsored Finnish and Georgian freedom fighters during World War I.

Slutet på en era, men början på en ny. Europa kan ha nytta av Ukrainas rymdkompetens. Landets stolthet Sergej Koroljov ligger bakom det sovjetiska arvet.

Russia to launch first moon lander since 1976 in race with Indian spacecraft

Russia will launch its first lunar landing spacecraft in 47 years on Friday in a race with India to the south pole of the moon, a potential source of water to support a future human presence there.

The launch from the Vostochny cosmodrome, 3,450 miles (5,550 km) east of Moscow, will take place four weeks after India sent up its Chandrayaan-3 lunar lander, due to touch down at the pole on Aug. 23.

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Residents of a village in Russia's far east will be evacuated from their homes at 7.30 a.m. on Friday because of a "one in a million chance" that one of the rocket stages that launches Luna-25 could fall to earth there, a local official said.

Mycket tyder på att Indien blir det fjärde landet i världen att landa en farkost på månen. Ryssland har fortfarande inte gjort detta utan Ukrainas hjälp!

Richard Haass tycks nu ha insett det orimliga i att förhandla med Putin innan det amerikanska presidentvalet är överstökat:

US and Western officials fear Putin unlikely to change course in Ukraine before 2024 election

Top US and European officials are concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is factoring the 2024 US presidential election into his Ukraine war planning in hopes that a loss by President Joe Biden next year will lead the US to curtail its support for Ukraine and improve Russia’s negotiating position, four US officials told CNN.

[...]

Officials who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity to discuss private internal considerations believe that Putin could be eyeing a win by Trump, or another Republican candidate, as a trigger for the US to pull back support for Ukraine. They also say that Putin’s eye on the election makes it even more important for the US to maintain long-term support to Ukraine, a commitment that the Biden administration continues to reiterate.

[...]

At this year’s G7 summit in Japan, the American election was the subject of anxious discussions among delegations, the official said, as leaders looked ahead to what could prove to be a decisive factor in the Ukraine war. Biden has sought to tamp down those concerns, but European officials view even a close race against Trump as reason for Putin to try extending the conflict until November.

[...]

In the most recent New York Times polling, Biden and Trump are locked in a tie, each with 43% of voters supporting them.

Putin är likt Hitler en hasardspelare. Hans förhandlingsposition försämras med tiden, och den han hoppas på är måltavla för fyra stora brottsutredningar.

[Enceladus]

Russian rouble dives past 97 vs dollar to over 16-month low

The Russian rouble slumped more than 2% against the dollar on Tuesday to a more than 16-month low past 97, hampered by strong local demand for foreign currency.

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By 1439 GMT, the rouble was 2.2% weaker against the dollar at 97.38, its weakest point since March 25, 2022.

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Russia’s budget deficit for January-July widened to 2.82 trillion roubles ($29.06 billion), or 1.8% of gross domestic product (GDP), the finance ministry said on Tuesday, citing preliminary estimates.

I skrivande stund går det drygt 97 rubel på en dollar. Samtidigt fortsätter Rysslands budgetunderskott att öka.

Falling ruble forces Russia to abandon its own budget principles

The Russian ruble has continued its steep decline, reaching 95 rubles against the dollar and 105 against the euro this week. For Russians, this is more than the usual psychological blow (many are used to using the exchange rate as a barometer for the economy’s fortunes): it is a tangible problem. The falling ruble accelerates inflation, which was already on the rise due to a mix of high budget spending, rising internal demand and a labor shortage. To ease pressure on the ruble, the government has been pushed into abandoning one of its key budget principles: using windfall oil profits for current spending.

[...]

With the dollar approaching the 100-ruble mark and inflation at 10% SAAS, there were rising expectations that the government would take action to try to calm the situation. On Wednesday, the Vedomosti business daily (usually reliable on these matters) reported that the government would not allow and the conversion of oil-and-gas windfalls into currency for the National Wealth Fund for the rest of the year. This would mean rejecting a budget rule that has been in place throughout the year. The next day, the Finance Ministry explained that there would still be currency purchase. However, multiple indicators suggest that this budgetary rule will effectively cease to apply in 2023.

[...]

In itself, the government’s deviation from budget rules is not such a big deal. Indeed, it could be a sign that the government anticipates good revenues in 2023, economists say. However, the fact that Russia’s economic authorities are having to rapidly move the goalposts as the game progresses is a sign that things are spinning out of control.

Enligt ekonomen Steve Hanke stiger den ryska inflationen mot extrema nivåer på grund av rubelns kräftgång.

Occupied Ukraine’s Turncoat Elites Struggle to Make Their Mark in Russian Politics

There is no way back for these people. In Ukraine, they are traitors; in the West, they are on every sanctions list. Their only option is to find a place in Russian politics.

The problem is that Russia’s hierarchical political system and its long-standing political clans are reluctant to admit newcomers. Despite all the public pronouncements about how Russians and Ukrainians are “one people,” Russian officials do not actually see those from annexed Ukrainian regions as their own. Instead, these new Russian subjects are forced to form their own clans to help them lobby their interests at the federal level.

The most successful at doing this are the elites from Crimea, while the once-legendary clan from eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region appears weak. The most difficult task is faced by elites in the annexed Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, whose territory could disappear as a result of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

[...]

All told, the aspirations of former Ukrainian politicians working in Russian-occupied areas to be treated as equals by their Russian colleagues have not been realized, while the risks of their collaboration are growing every day. As a result, individual integration—when it’s everyone for themselves in the quest for a plum job in the Russian power vertical—seems to be the best option available. A good example of this is former DNR head Dmitry Trapeznikov, who rose to be the deputy governor of Russia’s Kalmykia region after leaving the Donbas in 2019.

Given the meager incentives on offer for the risky business of collaboration, it’s not surprising that Russia failed to convincingly split the Ukrainian elites in both 2014 and 2022. Both times, only a small minority went over to Russia’s side. Yet again, the Kremlin has been caught out by underestimating Ukraine’s agency and emancipation.

Ukrainian tycoons and politicians in the country’s southeast looked to Putin as a guarantor of post-Soviet corruption for many years, but they never wanted to see him become a conquering invader. To add insult to injury, Russia has not treated its supporters particularly well. Those Ukrainians who have thrown their lot in with Moscow now find themselves in the same boat as an aging authoritarian regime. They have few alternatives other than to show unquestioning support for Putin.

Ukrainska kollaboratörer tar enorma risker utan att belönas av Putins maffiastat - knappast ett attraktivt erbjudande.

Exclusive: North Korean hackers breached top Russian missile maker

An elite group of North Korean hackers secretly breached computer networks at a major Russian missile developer for at least five months last year, according to technical evidence reviewed by Reuters and analysis by security researchers.

Reuters found cyber-espionage teams linked to the North Korean government, which security researchers call ScarCruft and Lazarus, secretly installed stealthy digital backdoors into systems at NPO Mashinostroyeniya, a rocket design bureau based in Reutov, a small town on the outskirts of Moscow.

[...]

Experts say the incident shows how the isolated country will even target its allies, such as Russia, in a bid to acquire critical technologies.

Inte ens Nordkorea har någon respekt för Ryssland...