Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

US to send Ukraine new security aid worth $200 million, State Dept says

The United States said on Monday it will send Ukraine new security assistance valued at $200 million, including air defense munitions, artillery rounds, and additional mine-clearing equipment.

[...]

Washington is currently working on a supplemental budget request to continue to aid Kyiv, the U.S. officials said.

Monday's announcement of $200 million would be the first tranche of a $6.2 billion windfall of previously authorized Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), the officials said.

USA skickar ett nytt stödpaket till Ukraina.

Russia’s central bank to hold extraordinary meeting after rouble falls to 16-month low

Russia’s central bank has announced it will hold an extraordinary meeting on Tuesday to discuss the level of its key interest rate after the rouble fell to its weakest point in almost 17 months.

[...]

Dr Janis Kluge, a researcher who focuses on the Russian economy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a thinktank, said: “The Russian rouble is still searching for its appropriate long-term war-sanctions exchange rate. Without capital controls, speculators would have priced in the poor outlook last year.”

[...]

The influential TV host Vladimir Solovyov said last week: “The bloody central bank isn’t even explaining why the hell the rouble exchange rate has jumped so high that they’re laughing at us abroad, at our rouble being one of the three weakest currencies.

“What is happening in this country!? How did this exchange rate come about? Eventually, this will lead to a rise in consumer prices, and it will coincide with the election campaign,” Solovyov added, referring to the Russian presidential election scheduled for March 2024.

Allt går enligt plan.

The ruble takes a dive, underscoring pressure on Russia’s war economy

A budget deficit and a significant labor shortage have also contributed to rising inflation. More than 40 percent of Russian industrial enterprises reported a shortage of workers last month, according to a recent survey — an acceleration of a trend that has been building since September, when Putin launched a nationwide military mobilization to shore up Russian forces in Ukraine.

[...]

The ruble slid past the 102 mark Monday, down 30 percent since the start of the year, before strengthening slightly later in the day, rising to 98.5 to the dollar.

[...]

There is “not much” the Central Bank can do, Itskhoki added, beyond reintroducing the kind of financial restrictions it deployed at the beginning of the war. Last week, the Central Bank announced that it was halting foreign currency purchases through the end of the year.

“Now is also a good time for the West to crank up financial and export sanctions to limit the fiscal space for current and future Russian war efforts in Ukraine and elsewhere,” he said.

Som sagt, tiden är inte på Rysslands sida.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Allt går enligt plan.

Krig förs inte efter någon plan. Dvs. den som inleder ett krig tror ofta det, men sedan har verkligheten en viss tendens att tränga sig på.

[Enceladus]

Allt går enligt plan.

Krig förs inte efter någon plan. Dvs. den som inleder ett krig tror ofta det, men sedan har verkligheten en viss tendens att tränga sig på.

Anders Puck Nielsen drar liknande slutsatser i söndagens intervju med Perun:



Putins plan verkar gå ut på att skjuta alla problem framför sig, eller på engelska "kick the can down the road". Försvaret av Urozhaine exemplifierar detta:

Ukrainian forces fully liberated Urozhaine.

Even by (low) Russian standards this battle has been unusually bloody and costly for the Russian occupation. The town was cut of by AFU from 3 sides, leaving only a narrow path in the south for supplies, reinforcements and in the end escape. This was a welcome chokepoint for the Ukrainian artillery, making it for many Russians the highway to hell, as documented by the videos in my previous posts.

Ukrainas motoffensiv ska framstå som misslyckad, men situationen var hopplös. Det var bara en tidsfråga. Vem ser Cherson-offensiven som misslyckad idag?

Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 11 679 enheter, varav 2 231 stridsvagnar och 1 020 artilleripjäser (277 dragna, 488 självgående samt 255 raketiska).

Det där är ju mycket baserat på ukrainska uppgifter. Även den fria pressen i Ukraina är naturligtvis intresserad av att framhålla det man snappar upp i en så gynnsam dager som möjligt för det egna landet. Så är det i alla krigförande länder. Man kan tycka att propaganda är någonting fult, som bara ryssar håller på med, men så är det förstås inte.

En artikel i The WarZone beskriver hur den ryska Svartahavs-flottan trakasserade ett handelsfartyg påväg till ukrainsk hamn, denna gång enbart med varningsskott:

OSINT outfit: Russia lied about ship inspection in Black Sea

InformNapalm, a Ukrainian open-source intelligence outfit, reported on Aug. 13 that the Russian authorities had lied about a Russian ship firing warning shots in the Black Sea earlier on the same day.

[...]

Natalia Humeniuk, the spokesperson for Ukraine's Southern Operational Command, reported that the alleged inspection of the vessel cannot be confirmed.

“This has not been confirmed by any other official sources. I think that we need to keep in mind the peculiarities of hybrid war,” Humeniuk said. “They are trying by all available means to show their dominance in the Black Sea."

Absolut ägnar sig Ukraina också åt propaganda! Exempelvis förnekar Ukraina att ovanstående har ägt rum. Det blir svårt för Ryssland att bevisa motsatsen.

Prigozhin’s Mutiny Shatters Illusion of Powerful Media Empire

One of the consequences of businessman and mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny earlier this year has been the unraveling of myths associated with his media empire. The main asset of that empire—the Patriot media company—announced its closure after the armed uprising. While it’s possible it will be reborn, this seems unlikely. Everything linked to Prigozhin is now toxic.

[...]

Both Prigozhin’s media empire and Wagner were conceived as contractor agencies that would perform functions for the state while remaining under external management. That idea didn’t work. It turns out that receiving billions of dollars in taxpayers’ money is no guarantee of either effectiveness or loyalty.

What will happen to Patriot now? It can’t be relocated to neighboring Belarus, like Wagner. And it’s not really needed by Russia’s major propaganda networks, which would find it far easier to hire staff made redundant by Patriot than to take over the company itself. Prigozhin’s downfall means Patriot has been deprived of its most important reader.

Någon annan som håller på med propaganda, mycket framgångsrikt ska tilläggas, är Prigozjin. Nu biter Putins monster sin skapare.

Evening of mysterious blasts across Russia

At least 7 people were killed, and more than 15 injured in two separate blasts that occurred in different parts of Russia on Monday evening.

The first explosion took place at a gas station in the city of Makhachkala in the southern Russian region of Dagestan on Monday evening, TASS news agency reported, citing Disaster Medicine Centre. At least five people were killed and 10 injured.

[...]

In the other explosion, two people were killed and five were injured, as reported by RIA on Monday. The explosion occurred at the Talinskoye oil field in Russia’s oil-rich Khanty-Mansiisk (Yugra) region in West Siberia.

En vanlig dag i Putins nya Ryssland. Dessutom kraschade en L-39 Albatros i Kuban. Ryssland har uppenbarligen ett akut behov av att utbilda fler piloter.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det där är ju mycket baserat på ukrainska uppgifter. Även den fria pressen i Ukraina är naturligtvis intresserad av att framhålla det man snappar upp i en så gynnsam dager som möjligt för det egna landet. Så är det i alla krigförande länder. Man kan tycka att propaganda är någonting fult, som bara ryssar håller på med, men så är det förstås inte.

En artikel i The WarZone beskriver hur den ryska Svartahavs-flottan trakasserade ett handelsfartyg påväg till ukrainsk hamn, denna gång enbart med varningsskott:

OSINT outfit: Russia lied about ship inspection in Black Sea

InformNapalm, a Ukrainian open-source intelligence outfit, reported on Aug. 13 that the Russian authorities had lied about a Russian ship firing warning shots in the Black Sea earlier on the same day.

[...]

Natalia Humeniuk, the spokesperson for Ukraine's Southern Operational Command, reported that the alleged inspection of the vessel cannot be confirmed.

“This has not been confirmed by any other official sources. I think that we need to keep in mind the peculiarities of hybrid war,” Humeniuk said. “They are trying by all available means to show their dominance in the Black Sea."

Absolut ägnar sig Ukraina också åt propaganda! Exempelvis förnekar Ukraina att ovanstående har ägt rum. Det blir svårt för Ryssland att bevisa motsatsen.

Tja, vem vet. Det mesta försvinner just i krigets propagandadimmor. Ytterst är det ju upp till läsaren att avgöra. Som alltid!

F.ö. används uttrycket "cannot be confirmed", inte "denied" eller någonting sådant.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Allt går enligt plan.

Krig förs inte efter någon plan. Dvs. den som inleder ett krig tror ofta det, men sedan har verkligheten en viss tendens att tränga sig på.

Anders Puck Nielsen drar liknande slutsatser i söndagens intervju med Perun:

Jag läser gärna något av kapten Puck Nielsen - däremot tänker jag inte uthärda en timme av australiensiskt prat i näsan. Det alltmer utbredda ofoget med (video)poddar får mig och tro att (väst)världens befolkning håller på att bli analfabeter och måste matas med all information audiovisuellt.

Textproduktionen får väl div. AI-system stå för, eftersom ändå ingen läser dessa texter.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 11 679 enheter, varav 2 231 stridsvagnar och 1 020 artilleripjäser (277 dragna, 488 självgående samt 255 raketiska).

Adjektivet "raketisk" finns inte i svenska språket. Jonas Hassen Khemiri använder ordet som en metafor i en av sina oöverskådliga romaner, men det är det inte fråga om här.

Det går alldeles utmärkt att skriva eldrörsartilleri resp. raketartilleri om man behöver skilja mellan olika typer.

[Enceladus]

Adjektivet "raketisk" finns inte i svenska språket. Jonas Hassen Khemiri använder ordet som en metafor i en av sina oöverskådliga romaner, men det är det inte fråga om här.

Det går alldeles utmärkt att skriva eldrörsartilleri resp. raketartilleri om man behöver skilja mellan olika typer.

Ett produktivt affix kan tillfogas vilket grundord som helst, förutsatt att det tillhör rätt ordklass. Alla ord finns inte i SAOB, och speciellt inte i SAOL!

Dessutom kraschade en L-39 Albatros i Kuban. Ryssland har uppenbarligen ett akut behov av att utbilda fler piloter.

How F-16s for Ukraine could harm Russia without taking a single shot

The Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS, possessed roughly 900 tactical aircraft before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These included fighter, attack and fighter-bomber aircraft. Since the invasion, it has lost between 84 and 130 of those to air defenses, fighter aircraft and crashes. That’s only a portion of total losses, however. Overuse of these aircraft is also costing Russia as the war drags on.

[...]

While newer Russian aircraft are designed for between 3,500 and 4,500 flight hours, with some as high as 6,000, those Soviet-era aircraft were designed to be in the air only 2,000 to 3,500 hours. Although several platforms, such as the MiG-31, have been upgraded to extend their service life, many of these older planes (Su-24, Su-25, Su-27, MiG-29) are nearing the end of their service lives. These have, at best, 500 to 1,000 hours remaining.

[...]

By the summer of 2024, combat losses and imputed flight hour losses may put the VKS below 75% of its prewar strength. To make up for that, the VKS will need to either increase production, reduce usage or reduce force structure for the next 30 years. Overall, though, that’s not a horrible position to be in.

Men VKS skulle ju vara intakt!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Adjektivet "raketisk" finns inte i svenska språket. Jonas Hassen Khemiri använder ordet som en metafor i en av sina oöverskådliga romaner, men det är det inte fråga om här.

Det går alldeles utmärkt att skriva eldrörsartilleri resp. raketartilleri om man behöver skilja mellan olika typer.

Ett produktivt affix kan tillfogas vilket grundord som helst, förutsatt att det tillhör rätt ordklass. Alla ord finns inte i SAOB, och speciellt inte i SAOL!

Nä, och inte i Språkbankens vid Göteborgs Universitet korpusar heller. Begränsningarna i Akademiens ordböcker kan man läsa om här: https://svenska.se/om/om-ordbockerna/

Men med ovanstående regel, eller andra, kan man hitta på vilka ord som helst. Annars finns det vissa fördelar med att hålla sig till någotsånär vedertagna begrepp. Givet att man vill skapa klarhet, förstås, och inte bara förvirring. Men Enceladus-kollektivet kanske har litterära ambitioner, vad vet jag?

För vidare studier rekommenderas (som vanligt) Tage Danielsson:Grallimatik : Struntpratetets fysiologi och teknik, Stockholm : Wahlström & Widstrand, 1966

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Dessutom kraschade en L-39 Albatros i Kuban. Ryssland har uppenbarligen ett akut behov av att utbilda fler piloter.

How F-16s for Ukraine could harm Russia without taking a single shot

The Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS, possessed roughly 900 tactical aircraft before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These included fighter, attack and fighter-bomber aircraft. Since the invasion, it has lost between 84 and 130 of those to air defenses, fighter aircraft and crashes. That’s only a portion of total losses, however. Overuse of these aircraft is also costing Russia as the war drags on.

[...]

While newer Russian aircraft are designed for between 3,500 and 4,500 flight hours, with some as high as 6,000, those Soviet-era aircraft were designed to be in the air only 2,000 to 3,500 hours. Although several platforms, such as the MiG-31, have been upgraded to extend their service life, many of these older planes (Su-24, Su-25, Su-27, MiG-29) are nearing the end of their service lives. These have, at best, 500 to 1,000 hours remaining.

[...]

By the summer of 2024, combat losses and imputed flight hour losses may put the VKS below 75% of its prewar strength. To make up for that, the VKS will need to either increase production, reduce usage or reduce force structure for the next 30 years. Overall, though, that’s not a horrible position to be in.

Men VKS skulle ju vara intakt!

Den citerade artikeln drar stora växlar på framtiden och rymmer antaganden och extrapolationer som aldrig skulle godtas i vetenskapliga sammanhang. Men krig är ju ingen exakt vetenskap.

I övrigt:
Russia's air force 'remains largely intact,' but more jets won't fix all its problems in Ukraine, NATO commanders say

Men man får väl - åtminstone tillfälligt - notera att floskler av nedanstående typ upphört.

Förr brukade skribenten tjata om att "VKS är i stort sett intakt". Efter Wagnergruppens uppror blev det helt plötsligt tyst...

[Enceladus]

Tja, vem vet. Det mesta försvinner just i krigets propagandadimmor. Ytterst är det ju upp till läsaren att avgöra. Som alltid!

Shoigu cynically claimed that Russia did not use cluster munitions in Ukraine and boasted of "successes": online responded

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has lied that the Russian occupation army did not use cluster munitions in the war against Ukraine. The war criminal cynically said that Russia allegedly did not use such weapons "for humanitarian reasons".

At the same time, Shoigu made up that the aggressor country allegedly "put an end to the West's dominance in the military sphere." He said this at the XI Moscow Conference on International Security.

Tror Sjojgu själv på sin dynga? Inte ens pro-ryska röster i väst försöker hävda att Ryssland inte använder klusterammunition. Det skadar bara trovärdigheten.

Germany to provide Ukraine with $5.5 billion in annual aid — finance minister

During a visit to Kyiv on Aug. 14, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner announced that Germany aims to allocate EUR 5 billion ($5.45 billion) annually in financial assistance to Ukraine, until at least 2027.

[...]

Earlier, Lindner supported the transfer of German-made Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.

Det ständiga inflödet av vapen från väst till den ukrainska armén förändrar styrkeförhållandena i kriget. Tiden är definitivt inte på Rysslands sida.

Nytt stort militärt stödpaket till Ukraina

Regeringen föreslår ett nytt stödpaket till Ukraina. Stödpaketet innehåller krigsmateriel till ett värde av 3,4 miljarder kronor, meddelar försvarsminister Pål Jonson (M) på en pressträff.

– Det kan bli ett långvarigt krig och därför har vi behov av att långsiktigt stötta Ukraina, säger han.

Sverige har sedan tidigare donerat militär utrustning till Ukraina för omkring 17 miljarder kronor.

[...]

Det nya stödpaketet innehåller bland annat ammunition till Stridsfordon 90 och artilleripjäsen Archer. Utöver det kommer Sverige donera transportfordon, minröjningsutrustning och ammunition till luftvärn.

Sverige presenterar också ett nytt stödpaket till Ukraina. Som sagt, tiden är inte på Rysslands sida.

Russian central bank jacks up rates to 12% to support battered rouble

Russia's central bank hiked its key interest rate by 350 basis points to 12% on Tuesday, an emergency move to try and halt the rouble's recent slide after a public call from the Kremlin for tighter monetary policy.

[...]

"Hiking policy rates won’t solve anything - they might temporarily slow the pace of depreciation of the rouble at the price of slower real GDP growth - unless the core problem, the war and sanctions are resolved."

[...]

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina has won plaudits for her handling of the economy since Russia began what it calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine, but the plunging rouble and high inflation have put her on the back foot, especially among pro-war nationalists.

Rysslands kraftiga höjning av styrräntan tycks vara ännu ett exempel på Goodharts lag, d.v.s. att när ett mått blir ett mål upphör det att vara ett bra mått.

Anna-Lena Laurén: Jag visste att jag skulle bli utkastad, det var bara en fråga om när

Den 29 mars 2023 greps den amerikanska journalisten Evan Gershkovich i Jekaterinburg. Exakt en månad senare fick jag ett meddelande av en DN-kollega i Stockholm.

– Har du sett vad ryska ambassaden i Stockholm skriver om din Lavrovartikel? undrade han.

[...]

Det är tråkigt. I ett sammanhang där Ryssland har anfallit en granne och startat sin väg mot undergången är det samtidigt en detalj. Men ju fler journalister som inte längre kan rapportera inifrån Ryssland, desto större monster blir landet i omvärldens ögon.

DN:s Anna-Lena Laurén tvingas lämna Ryssland. Även SVT:s Bert Sundström tvingades lämna - efter 20 års rapportering. Fasaden av normalitet är borta.

[Enceladus]

En möjlighet, som beskrivs i artikeln, är förstås att gå enbart genom turkiskt, bulgariskt och rumänskt territorialvatten, försåvitt dessa stater tillåter detta. Donauhamnarna har ju problemet att djupgåendet begränsar användbart tonnage, även om hamnläggningarna på den ukrainska sidan skulle vara användbara.

U.S. in Talks to Develop Ukraine's Grain Export Routes

The U.S.-backed plan involves increasing capacity for Ukraine to export four million tons of grain a month via the Danube River by October. Much of the grain would be sent down the river and via the Black Sea to nearby ports in Romania and shipped onward to other destinations. Though slower and more expensive, the route would work as an alternative to a Black Sea shipping corridor established last year under an agreement with Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations.

[...]

Western planning for alternatives to the Black Sea Grain Initiative shows how the U.S., Ukraine and European countries are preparing for a scenario in which Russia doesn’t rejoin the deal in time to move Ukraine’s summer and fall harvests.

[...]

The U.S. is considering all potential options, including military solutions, to protect ships headed to and from Ukraine’s Danube ports, the Washington official said, but declined to give specifics on those options or say what countries would be involved in them.

En annan möjlighet är ett nytt spannmålsavtal utan Ryssland.

Russia Discusses Return to Capital Controls to Stem Ruble Slump

The proposal to mandate sales of export revenues was discussed at a meeting between the government and exporters on Monday, before the Bank of Russia announced an emergency rate hike, according to four people familiar with the discussions, who asked not to be named because details are private. Two of the people said that no breakthrough was reached and another meeting may be held later this week.

[...]

The ruble appreciated after the rate announcement before reversing gains and is still among the three worst performers in developing economies this year with a loss of about 25%. Without additional measures such as the central bank interventions or mandatory sales of export revenues it may take several months for the ruble to strengthen, according to Sofya Donets, an economist at Renaissance Capital.

[...]

In recent months Russian exporters have already been selling more than 80% of their revenues on the market, central bank data shows. Governor Elvira Nabiullina said in July that the Bank of Russia is closely monitoring foreign currency sales from the exporters and only 1% of total incomes remains outside of the country.

Om Putin försöker ge sken av att Ryssland kan hålla ut så länge det behövs så har han misslyckats kapitalt.

Russia’s ‘General Armageddon’ removed from military leadership, under house arrest: Reports

The VChK-OGPU blog, which is considered close to Russia’s security forces, reported late Sunday that Surovikin is now “under a kind of house arrest” where he can’t leave the apartment he is being kept in, but has been permitted visitors, including several of his subordinates.

Surovikin, known as “General Armageddon” for his aggressive military strategies in Chechnya and Syria, has not been seen in public since Wagner’s march on Moscow in June, after reports circulated that he had known about Prigozhin’s planned mutiny.

“There is no official investigation, but Surovikin spent a long time in limbo answering uncomfortable questions,” VChK-OGPU reported, adding that the general has been advised to stay under the radar so that he is “forgotten.” Quoting a person with knowledge of the situation, the blog said a decision on Surovikin’s ultimate fate “must be taken by one person, and the longer this takes, the more this person will cool down” — referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Inte heller Surovikins oväntade försvinnande stärker Rysslands ställning hos västerländska kännare.

The moment Ukraine used an experimental drone to attack a Russian bridge

The head of the SBU, Vasyl Maliuk, told CNN the drone used, called a “Sea Baby,” was the result of months of development that began just after the invasion. “Sea surface drones are a unique invention of the Security Service of Ukraine,” he said. “None of the private companies are involved. Using these drones we have recently conducted a successful hit of the Crimean bridge, the big assault ship Olengorskiy Gornyak and SIG tanker.”

[...]

“We are working on a number of new interesting operations, including in the Black Sea waters. I promise you, it’ll be exciting, especially for our enemies,” said Maliuk.

Maliuk also claimed responsibility for the first Ukrainian attack on the bridge, on October 8, but declined to provide details. The circumstances of the attack, which CCTV appeared to show was caused by a blast emanating from a moving truck on the bridge, remain unclear.

Ukrainas säkerhetstjänst tar på sig förra årets liksom årets attack på Kertjbron. Samtidigt fortsätter Ukraina att avancera:

Ukrainian forces have broken through the Russian defense positions in the north and east of Robotyne and pushed the enemy from significant parts out of the town. Also, some areas west of the town have been cleared from any Russian presence.

Goda nyheter från både Urozhaine och Robotyne!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

En möjlighet, som beskrivs i artikeln, är förstås att gå enbart genom turkiskt, bulgariskt och rumänskt territorialvatten, försåvitt dessa stater tillåter detta. Donauhamnarna har ju problemet att djupgåendet begränsar användbart tonnage, även om hamnläggningarna på den ukrainska sidan skulle vara användbara.

U.S. in Talks to Develop Ukraine's Grain Export Routes

The U.S.-backed plan involves increasing capacity for Ukraine to export four million tons of grain a month via the Danube River by October. Much of the grain would be sent down the river and via the Black Sea to nearby ports in Romania and shipped onward to other destinations. Though slower and more expensive, the route would work as an alternative to a Black Sea shipping corridor established last year under an agreement with Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations.

[...]

Western planning for alternatives to the Black Sea Grain Initiative shows how the U.S., Ukraine and European countries are preparing for a scenario in which Russia doesn’t rejoin the deal in time to move Ukraine’s summer and fall harvests.

[...]

The U.S. is considering all potential options, including military solutions, to protect ships headed to and from Ukraine’s Danube ports, the Washington official said, but declined to give specifics on those options or say what countries would be involved in them.

En annan möjlighet är ett nytt spannmålsavtal utan Ryssland.

Utan Ryssland behövs inget "avtal", eller hur, även om turkskurkarna gärna vill mäkla igen:
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-econom ... icial.html

Däremot måste både lastningsplatser och seglationsvägar säkras. Just nu finns egentligen bara Donauhamnarna tillgängliga, och i vilken omfattning Ryssland avser att ytterligare angripa dessa är förstås oklart. Att Ryssland inte saknar kapacitet till det framgår av den ryska attacken mot SKF:s fabrik i Lutsk, nordost om Lviv (bara drygt 9 mil öster om gränsen mot Polen), samt av detta: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/37 ... aries.html

Passage till/från Odessa måste betraktas som mer chansartad, dessutom är det oklart hur mycket av infrastrukturen för spannmålshantering i denna stads hamn som har förstörts av ryska attacker.

Vattendjupet i farlederna i Donaudeltat sätter som sagt också begränsningar för hur stort tonnage som kan anlöpa dessa hamnar. I regel fordras omlastning till oceangående fartyg (där gränsen sätts av vilka mått som passagen genom turksunden medger - även passage till östersjöhamnar har ju sina begränsningar, som Enceladus-kollektivet kanske minns: viewtopic.php?p=391123#p391123) ex.vis i rumänska Constanta, som ju har infrastruktur för spannmålshantering. Sedan kan man ju inte heller vara helt säker på att fartyg till eller från rumänska eller bulgariska hamnar inte trakasseras av den ryska flottan, även om det förefaller mindre sannolikt. Det skulle i så fall motverkan genom att kursen sätts helt genom resp. lands territorialvatten.

Möjligheten till "military solutions" dvs. någon form av konvojerin,g begränsas av vilka resurser som redan finns hos (Nato-allierade) i Svarta Havet:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_ ... ainian_War

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the Ukrainian government appealed to Turkey to exercise its authority under the Montreux Convention to limit the transit of Russian warships from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea. At least six Russian warships and a submarine had crossed the Turkish straits in February.[51] After initial reluctance, attributed to the country's close ties with both Russia and Ukraine,[51] Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu announced on 27 February that his government would legally recognise the Russian invasion as a "war", which provides grounds for implementing the convention with respect to military vessels.[7] This blockage of naval vessels also applies to NATO powers who cannot now move their vessels from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea. However, Çavuşoğlu reiterated that pursuant to the terms of the agreement, Turkey cannot block Russian warships based in the Black Sea from returning to their registered base.[51] Around February 27–28, Turkey refused permission for three out of four Russian warships to enter the Black Sea as their home base was not on the Black Sea.[52]

[Enceladus]

Passage till/från Odessa måste betraktas som mer chansartad, dessutom är det oklart hur mycket av infrastrukturen för spannmålshantering i denna stads hamn som har förstörts av ryska attacker.

Container ship leaves Russian-blocked Ukrainian port of Odesa - Kyiv

A container ship left the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odesa on Wednesday morning, the government said, using what it has described as a new temporary corridor for merchant ships to and from its ports, which are blockaded by Russia.

Ukraine last week announced a "humanitarian corridor" in the Black Sea to release cargo ships that have been trapped in its ports since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

[...]

He identified the container ship as the Hong-Kong-flagged JOSEPH SCHULTE and said it had been in the port since Feb. 23, 2022, the day before the invasion.

He said the ship was carrying more than 30,000 metric tons of cargo in 2,114 containers.

Ett första fraktskepp har nu vågat lämna Odesa, efter Ukrainas utropande av tillfälliga säkerhetskorridorer i Svarta havet.

Ukraine retakes southeast village of Urozhaine from Russian forces

The village's recapture would indicate Ukraine is pressing ahead with an offensive drive south towards the Sea of Azov that aims to cut Russian occupying forces in half. Urozhaine lies just over 90 km (55 miles) from the Sea of Azov.

In a sign of the difficulty of the battlefield operations, Urozhaine is the first village Ukraine says it has retaken since June 27 when it announced the recapture of neighbouring Staromaiorske.

[...]

The recapture of Urozhaine would bring Ukraine closer to threatening the village of Staromlynivka, several kilometres to the south, which military analysts say serves as a Russian stronghold in the area.

Äntligen är det officiellt: Urozjajne har befriats. Byn har beskrivits som ett epicentrum för mycket hårda strider. Nu fortsätter de offensiva operationerna. Kermenchyk nästa?

The Clean Energy Future Is Arriving Faster Than You Think

Wind and solar power are breaking records, and renewables are now expected to overtake coal by 2025 as the world’s largest source of electricity. Automakers have made electric vehicles central to their business strategies and are openly talking about an expiration date on the internal combustion engine. Heating, cooling, cooking and some manufacturing are going electric.

[...]

More than $1.7 trillion worldwide is expected to be invested in technologies such as wind, solar power, electric vehicles and batteries globally this year, according to the I.E.A., compared with just over $1 trillion in fossil fuels. That is by far the most ever spent on clean energy in a year.

[...]

But clean energy became cheap far faster than anyone expected. Since 2009, the cost of solar power has plunged by 83 percent, while the cost of producing wind power has fallen by more than half. The price of lithium-ion battery cells fell 97 percent over the past three decades.

Today, solar and wind power are the least expensive new sources of electricity in many markets, generating 12 percent of global electricity and rising. This year, for the first time, global investors are expected to pour more money into solar power — some $380 billion — than into drilling for oil.

[...]

“The world has produced nearly three billion solar panels at this point, and every one of those has been an opportunity for people to try to improve the process,” said Gregory Nemet, a solar power expert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “And all of those incremental improvements add up to something very dramatic.”

[...]

In the United States, President Biden signed a trio of laws during his first two years in office that allocated unprecedented funds for clean energy: A $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law provided money to enhance the power grid, buy electric buses for schools and build a national network of electric vehicle chargers. The bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act set aside billions of dollars for semiconductors vital to car manufacturing. And the Inflation Reduction Act, which marks its first anniversary on Aug. 16, is by far the most ambitious attempt to fight climate change in American history.

[...]

Regulations are also hastening the energy transition. Mr. Biden has proposed tough new federal pollution limits on tailpipes and smokestacks, but several states are acting on their own. California, with market muscle that influences the entire auto industry, plans to halt sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035 and new diesel-powered trucks by 2036 — and a handful of states are following suit. In May, New York became the first state to ban gas hookups in most new buildings, requiring all-electric heating and cooking starting in 2026. Several cities, including New York and San Francisco, have similar prohibitions, although some Republican-controlled states have blocked their municipalities from banning gas.

[...]

Canada, South Korea and others have pushed for their companies to have better access to the American incentives, while offering similar subsidies to their domestic manufacturers. After Russia invaded Ukraine last year, the European Union moved to lessen its dependence on Russian oil and gas. In May, for the first time ever, wind and solar power in the E.U. generated more electricity than fossil fuels.

Ännu fler dåliga nyheter för Ryssland - liksom övriga petrostater. Dessa länder lever på lånad tid.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Passage till/från Odessa måste betraktas som mer chansartad, dessutom är det oklart hur mycket av infrastrukturen för spannmålshantering i denna stads hamn som har förstörts av ryska attacker.

Container ship leaves Russian-blocked Ukrainian port of Odesa - Kyiv

A container ship left the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odesa on Wednesday morning, the government said, using what it has described as a new temporary corridor for merchant ships to and from its ports, which are blockaded by Russia.

Ukraine last week announced a "humanitarian corridor" in the Black Sea to release cargo ships that have been trapped in its ports since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

[...]

He identified the container ship as the Hong-Kong-flagged JOSEPH SCHULTE and said it had been in the port since Feb. 23, 2022, the day before the invasion.

He said the ship was carrying more than 30,000 metric tons of cargo in 2,114 containers.

Ett första fraktskepp har nu vågat lämna Odesa, efter Ukrainas utropande av tillfälliga säkerhetskorridorer i Svarta havet.

Ja, jag såg det, men tänkte att Enceladus-kollektivet skulle få komma med något eget, också. Passagen är givetvis chansartad, eftersom den bygger på unilaterala ukrainska deklarationer: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-econom ... ridor.html

"The JOSEPH SCHULTE container ship (Hong Kong flag) has left the port of Odesa and is moving along the temporary corridor established for civilian vessels to/from the Black Sea seaports of Ukraine," the Ministry for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development of Ukraine (Ministry for Restoration) posted on Telegram.

It is noted that the corridor will primarily be used for the evacuation of ships that were in the Ukrainian ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi at the time of the Russian full-scale invasion.

The Ministry of Restoration added that according to the navigation order of the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine No. 6, temporary routes for the movement of civilian vessels to/from the Black Sea seaports of Ukraine began to operate on August 8, 2023. Ukraine proposed this route in its appeal to the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The IMO Council recognizes Ukraine's international right to free trade navigation and calls on Russia to stop any threats and adhere to international conventions.

[Enceladus]

US approves sending F-16s to Ukraine from Denmark and Netherlands

The United States has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands to defend against Russian invaders as soon as pilot training is completed, a U.S. official said on Thursday.

[...]

A coalition of 11 countries was due to start training Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16 fighter jets this month in Denmark. Denmark's acting Defense Minister Troels Poulsen said in July that the country hoped to see "results" from the training in early 2024.

[...]

U.S. President Joe Biden endorsed training programs for Ukrainian pilots on F-16s in May. In addition to training in Denmark, a training center was to be set up in Romania.

Äntligen har USA godkänt leveransen av amerikanska stridsflygplan till Ukraina!

Czech minister: Ukraine may receive remaining Czech Soviet-made helicopter gunships

Ukraine may receive Soviet-made Mi-24V/35 helicopter gunships from Czechia's stocks as the Czech military is decommissioning them in favor of newer U.S. models, the Czech News Agency reported on Aug. 17, citing the country's defense minister.

[...]

By 2023, the Czech military has 13 Mi-24V/35 helicopters in its stocks, though only 10 of them were in active use.

Prague already supplied some of its attack helicopters to Ukraine as military aid last year without specifying their number. The Oryx investigation group identified at least four of them to be in use by the Ukrainian military. In July, Prime Minister Petr Fiala promised to provide further attack helicopters to bolster Ukraine's defense.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 11 719 enheter, varav 2 235 stridsvagnar, 84 flygplan, 102 helikoptrar, 14 strids- och 269 spaningsdrönare.

What’s Behind China’s Strategic Partnership With Georgia?

The South Caucasus is one such alternative. Geographically, the shortest connection is from Xinjiang in China to EU member state Romania. This Middle Corridor, running through Central Asia and the Caspian Sea, and then through the Black Sea or overland through Turkey, is now increasingly seen as a viable substitute to the traditional northern route via Russia.

China was initially hesitant to support the Middle Corridor, perhaps hoping that the war would soon be over, but as time went on, the need to find a stable alternative grew stronger. Tentative progress on the long-stalled China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway was the first strong signal from Beijing. In early 2023, the Chinese ambassador to Georgia openly supported the idea of developing the Middle Corridor, to the surprise of many. Moreover, various memorandums and political consultations have been signed and held to facilitate transit between Georgia and Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Indeed, following his visit to China, the Georgian prime minister went to Kazakhstan to discuss the Middle Corridor.

[...]

Nor is Russia likely to welcome China’s moves. Although Moscow regards the South Caucasus as part of its uncontested sphere of influence, the Kremlin has witnessed a gradual erosion of its power and prestige in the region. Taking advantage of Moscow’s preoccupation with its war against Ukraine, powers like Turkey, Iran, and now China have made significant inroads into the South Caucasus to fill the emerging vacuum. As a result, a multi-aligned South Caucasus has emerged, and the recent China-Georgia agreement further exacerbates this trend.

Inte heller Sydkaukasien är längre en del av Rysslands intressesfär.

Ukrainian drone damages building in Moscow disrupting air traffic, Russia says

A Reuters witness who was in the area described hearing "a powerful explosion". Reuters images showed workers and emergency workers inspecting a damaged roof of a non-residential building which the drone hit.

The Russian defence ministry and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said there were no casualties after air defences destroyed a drone which then fell on a non-residential building of Moscow's Expo Center complex in the early hours of Friday.

[...]

Air-traffic was briefly suspended at four major airports around the capital - Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo and Zhukovsky - though later they reopened.

Ännu en drönarattack mot Moskva. Denna gång blev konferensanläggningen Expo Center skadad. Ingen bra idé att anordna en global konferens i Moskva!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det är tydligen OK att referera till Washington Post ibland:

Inside the Russian effort to build 6,000 attack drones with Iran’s help

Då kan vi väl ta denna också: U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal

[Enceladus]

Det är tydligen OK att referera till Washington Post ibland:

Inside the Russian effort to build 6,000 attack drones with Iran’s help

Då kan vi väl ta denna också: U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal

Detta diskuterades redan i våras:

Ukraine’s Allies Fear War Breakthrough May Not Come Before Next Year

While a Ukrainian drive toward the city of Melitopol in the south, aimed at splitting Russian forces is widely expected, some European officials are now skeptical that can be achieved this year.

Instead, a more realistic target is now seen as a 30 km (20 mile) or so advance that would put Ukraine’s most capable artillery within range of Russian supply lines and create conditions for a deeper push in 2024, one of the officials said. Allies need to work now to enhance their production capacity and the support that will be needed to sustain those efforts, the official added.

Tokmak i år, Melitopol nästa år? Tiden är i alla fall inte på Putins sida.

Som sagt, tiden är inte på Putins sida.

US asks Iran to stop selling drones to Russia

The official added that Tehran — which officially denies its drones are being used in Ukraine — had repeatedly asked Moscow to stop deploying them in the conflict, but Washington wanted “more concrete steps”.

[...]

In return, Washington would refrain from imposing fresh sanctions in some areas, with the exception of those involving human rights, and would not strictly police the sanctions already in place on oil sales, the Iranian official said.

[...]

But the diplomat also cautioned that “there’s quite a big gap between having that conversation [on de-escalatory measures] with an Iranian and then the whole Iranian system being willing to implement it”.

Är Iran i desperat behov av pengar?

Den politiska situationen i Iran förtjänar mer uppmärksamhet. Landets isolering börjar nämligen bli ohållbar:

Exclusive: Large Steel Works In Iran Down Due To Power Shortage

Earlier in the year, reports by industry sources revealed that steel production in Iran had plummeted because the country faced a severe shortage of electricity and gas, both vital for running the plants. Iranian industrialist Reza Shahrestani said In January the steel industry needed 40 million cubic meters of gas daily, but their consumption was at 15 million cubic meters per day at the time. He added that almost 50% of the electricity supply for industries has been cut off too.

[...]

Economist Ahmad Alavi told Iran International that the total loss from the shutdown of Khuzestan Steel Company is not limited to the estimated $15-million because there are a lot of other businesses in different sectors that depend on the steel industry and will suffer losses. He added that the poor infrastructure in the steel industry – as well as other industries – is a result of decades of mismanagement and lack of investment, therefore the regime will not be able to resolve these issues in the near future.

[...]

In early August, Iran implemented a two-day shutdown of businesses and factories nationwide, initially presented as a health safety measure. However, it was later revealed that it was an excuse to deflect attention from the ongoing electricity, gas, and water shortages.

Iran har världens näst största gasreserver, men ändå är det gasbrist - till skillnad från Europa: Putin fails again as Europe’s gas storage hits 90 percent

På tal om drönare, Ukraina har fått Turkmenistan Airlines att sluta flyga till Moskva: Turkmenistan Airlines Stops Flying To Moscow Citing Safety Concerns

Utländska fotbollsspelare flyr också Moskva: Norwegian footballer Mathias Normann leaves Russia after drone attacks on Moscow City business centre

Fler dåliga nyheter för Ryssland: Shuttered Peninsula. How Storm Shadow missiles and kamikaze sea drones are cutting off Crimea from Russia

Hur länge orkar den ryska eliten stå ut?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det är tydligen OK att referera till Washington Post ibland:

Inside the Russian effort to build 6,000 attack drones with Iran’s help

Då kan vi väl ta denna också: U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal

Detta diskuterades redan i våras:

Ukraine’s Allies Fear War Breakthrough May Not Come Before Next Year

While a Ukrainian drive toward the city of Melitopol in the south, aimed at splitting Russian forces is widely expected, some European officials are now skeptical that can be achieved this year.

Instead, a more realistic target is now seen as a 30 km (20 mile) or so advance that would put Ukraine’s most capable artillery within range of Russian supply lines and create conditions for a deeper push in 2024, one of the officials said. Allies need to work now to enhance their production capacity and the support that will be needed to sustain those efforts, the official added.

Tokmak i år, Melitopol nästa år?

Ja, frågetecknen är många. Historiskt och taktiskt påminner situationen på sydfronten en del om den längs den finsk-ryska fronten under finska fortsättningskriget, från 1941, fram till lillefar Stalins offensiv under 1944. Fast finnarnas försvarslinjer var avsevärt svagare befästa än ryssarnas idag.

Framför allt finns få historiska exempel på så kraftigt minerade försvarslinjer som i Zaporizhia oblast. Franz-Stefan Gady har ju också tidigare sagt att han inte tror att någon annan krigsmakt än USA:s skulle kunna åstadkomma ett mekaniserat genombrott, som situationen är nu:

Gady however was quick to emphasize that “no Western type of military can really do this sort of combined arms operations at scale, with the exception of the United States. But even the United States Armed Forces would have a very difficult time breaking through these defensive layers because no Western military in the world currently has any experience in breaching the types of defenses in depth that the Russians put up, in the south and east of Ukraine.”

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ukrainas president Volodymyr Zelenskyj besöker Sverige

Putinisten, islamisten och våldsverkaren Ramzan Achmatovitj Kadyrov fortsätter att hota "satans tjänare": Kadyrov utlovar hämnd efter koranbränningarna

Flera medier beskriver president Zelenskyj s besöksrundor som ett sätt att mota The Donald i grind.

Mannen till vänster(!) i bild är alltså högerextremisten Tucker Carlson, numera sparkad från Fox News

Trump’s in big legal trouble, but he’s still a nightmare for Europe (Politico)

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Exclusive: North Korean hackers breached top Russian missile maker

An elite group of North Korean hackers secretly breached computer networks at a major Russian missile developer for at least five months last year, according to technical evidence reviewed by Reuters and analysis by security researchers.

Reuters found cyber-espionage teams linked to the North Korean government, which security researchers call ScarCruft and Lazarus, secretly installed stealthy digital backdoors into systems at NPO Mashinostroyeniya, a rocket design bureau based in Reutov, a small town on the outskirts of Moscow.

[...]

Experts say the incident shows how the isolated country will even target its allies, such as Russia, in a bid to acquire critical technologies.

Inte ens Nordkorea har någon respekt för Ryssland...

Eller också samarbetar man (det ena behöver ju inte utesluta det andra), så som CSIS befarar:
The Transfer of a Russian ICBM to North Korea?

Det verkar osannolikt att Nordkorea skulle ha tillägnat sig denna teknologi enbart via cyberspionage.