EU looks to dedicate €1B to howitzer shells for Ukraine
POLITICO skrev:In a new blueprint for military support to Ukraine, the European Union will propose that €1 billion should be specifically dedicated to ammunition, particularly 155mm artillery shells, according to a document seen by POLITICO.
The EU is helping supply Ukraine with arms through an off-budget, inter-governmental cash pot called the European Peace Facility, which is used to reimburse countries that export arms to Ukraine. So far, the facility has disbursed €3.6 billion in military aid to Ukraine, with member countries deciding last December to increase its funding by €2 billion in 2023.
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The funding proposal also provides a possible way out by citing “voluntary financial contributions” for countries not to take part, such as Austria, which is neutral; or that are reluctant to provide weapons, such as Hungary.
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Here, time is of the essence: “In view of the urgency, the Project Arrangement needs to be signed no later than March.” And contracts should “be tentatively concluded between end-April and end-May.”
I en tidigare analys gjorde Kofman bedömningen att Ukrainas brist på ammunition endast är kortvarig - och tvärtom för Ryssland.
Germany will increase ammunition production to support Ukraine
Militarnyi skrev:“The now one-year lasting support of Ukraine has also brought us the knowledge that enables us to ensure that there is also a sufficient supply, with spare parts, that we have created repair capacities for the weapons used in the war, at locations outside of Ukraine,” Scholz said.
“We will ensure that the production of ammunition is advanced, both for the weapons that we have supplied ourselves and those that come from classic stocks that are available in eastern Europe,” the head of the German government added.
Ukraina vet att Ryssland har en tendens att tröttna på utdragna utnötningskrig (första världskriget, afghansk-sovjetiska kriget och första Tjetjenienkriget).
Israel’s Window to Strike Iran Narrows as Putin Enters Equation
Bloomberg skrev:The prospect of Iran getting the systems, the S-400s, would accelerate a decision on a possible attack, people in Israel and the US with knowledge of the discussions said.
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“The longer you wait, the harder that becomes,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said of a strike on Iran at a security conference in Tel Aviv last week. “We’ve waited very long. I can tell you that I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”
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In December, the US said Russia was deepening military backing for Iran in return for Iranian supplies of drones for Moscow’s war on Ukraine. The next month, an Iranian lawmaker said Tehran expects a delivery of Su-35 fighter jets from Russia by mid-March.
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After Joe Biden defeated Trump, his administration tried to revive the Iran nuclear deal but blamed Tehran for walking away. US Ambassador to Israel, Tom Nides, recently indicated understanding for Israel’s approach.
“Israel can and should do whatever they need to deal with (Iran) and we’ve got their back,” he said at an event on Feb. 19.
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Gulf nations would be at some risk but many are hoping Israel will act — even if it only sets back Iranian nuclear ambitions for a few years, said Riad Kahwagi, founder and chief executive officer of INEGMA, a Dubai-based security research group.
Håller kriget i Ukraina på att destabilisera hela världen? Riskerar USA att dras in i ett nytt krig i Mellanöstern?
Russia's fighter jet deal with Iran is a sign of weakness - analysis
The Jerusalem Post skrev:Reports have suggested that Russia could provide Iran with the Su-35. In some ways the Russian decision could be looming because it has lost out on markets for its jets around the Middle East. That means it has jets that were pegged for sales which fell through. A report at Al-Monitor in mid-January noted that “Algeria had rejected a deal to purchase Russian Su-35 fighter jets. According to Algerian defense analysts, Algiers came to the decision due to a lack of a modern on-board radar station, which does not meet the requirements of the Algerian military.”
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Defense News also noted that “before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s aerospace leadership had planned to market the next generation heavy fighter bomber, the Su-57, and its highly touted derivative the Su-75 to several foreign military buyers. These plans now appear to be in ruins… For foreign buyers, that leaves the Sukhoi 35 (Su-35), the only Russian military aircraft in serial production. This is Russia’s signature heavy fighter bomber — although its combat record over the skies of Ukraine is mixed. But even the Su-35 might not be successfully exported in any significant numbers this decade.” Russia has also failed to realize its plans to make next-generation aircraft, such as the Su-57 and Su-75 relevant.
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Russia hasn’t been using its air force much in the Ukraine war. It fears having its fighters and bombers shot down and appears to lack the strength and confidence to use the planes. It did use planes in Syria. Most accounts agree that Russia has suffered not only export losses due to the war, but that its serial production of aircraft has fallen.
That means Russia may not have many planes to sell and what it does have may be old and unimpressive. In short, it might provide Iran a few aircraft that had been destined for cancelled sales elsewhere. This won’t really change things for Iran’s airforce. A dozen jet aircraft does not make an air force - Iran has invested in drones for a reason.
Efter fiaskot i Ukraina är det bara pariastater som vill ha ryska stridsflygplan...
Saudi, UK ministers agree to study combat air cooperation -Saudi agency
Reuters skrev:Saudi and British defence ministers have agreed to study future co-operation on combat air capabilities and potential industrial projects, the Saudi state news agency reported.
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The brief official Saudi media report did not indicate whether Riyadh was planning to join the British-led fighter programme directly, but defence analysts cautioned that such alliances typically take months or years to negotiate.
Det är ytterst osäkert om USA kommer att exportera sina sjätte generationens stridsflygplan. Både UK och Saudiarabien vill förstås ha senaste tekniken. UK har kompetensen och Saudiarabien har pengarna. Däremot har länderna helt olika syn på demokrati och mänskliga rättigheter. Kan det bli någon deal?