Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Dessutom måste de europeiska väljarna hålla putinister och högerextremister som Wilders, Le Pen, AfD, Vox osv kort (förutom opportunister som Orban, Fico och Meloni). Går det? Det kan vi få besked om ganska snart. EU’s hard right scrambling to stay relevant in election campaign
Som de beskriver sig själva:

The European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) is a centre-right political group in the European Parliament,

Ett blandat gäng, kan man säga.

Sedan har vi ju det här gänget också, som jag även berörde tidigare: viewtopic.php?p=419413#p419413

Europe’s Trumpists warm up for EU elections with series of rallies

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Och så var det detta med Polens högerextrema president Duda och Trump: Poland’s Duda influenced Trump’s position on Ukraine, Nausėda says

Polish President Andrzej Duda may have impacted the former US president Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine, said his Lithuanian counterpart Gitanas Nausėda, as the Congress is about to pass a $60 billion support package for Kyiv.

Duda’s plans to meet Trump during his recent visit to the US sparked controversy in Poland.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was sceptical but hoped the president would “take a very firm stance on the issue of (Trump) clearly siding with the Western world, democracy, and Europe.”

In this respect, Duda has succeeded, according to Nausėda.

“I have been hearing lately about the different rhetoric of Donald Trump and the willingness of the US authorities to make necessary and long-awaited decisions. I believe that (Duda’s) visit and talks with Donald Trump were positive, produced a positive result, and I am very pleased with this achievement of Andrzej Duda,” the Lithuanian president said, as quoted by Lrt.lt.

So far, Trump has been sending mixed signals on Ukraine, yet he was not in favour of spending the other billions on military support for Kyiv, nor were his most vocal supporters in Congress.

However, just one day after meeting Duda, Trump acknowledged for the first time that Ukraine’s survival was important to the US.

Men Duda kanske kan göra lite nytta, han med. Mycket kan man beskylla de polska PiS-arna för, men några putinister är de inte. Minnena av det ryska förtrycket, först från Polens delning i slutet av 1700-talet (som faktiskt berörs av C.M. Bellman i Fredmans epistel nr. 45) fram till Polens återupprättande 1918, och sedan kommunistdiktaturen 1945-89, sitter alltför djupt i den polska folksjälen.

Och så var det förstås det där med kärnvapnen igen: “Poland ready to host nuclear weapons,” declares president, prompting response from Moscow

Subsequently, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that he wanted to speak with the president to understand the intention behind his statement. That suggests, writes Rzeczpospolita, a leading daily, that Duda had not consulted beforehand with the government.

“I want Poland to be safe and well-armed, but I would also like any initiatives to be very well prepared by the people responsible for them and for all of us to be convinced that this is what we want,” said Tusk.

Nä, Duda bryr sig väl inte om vad regeringen tycker, utan kör sitt egen race. Han är ju president, för hundra gubbar, och gör som han själv tycker och vill. Att sätta käppar i hjulet för Donald Tusks regering gynnar tydligen Polens intressen!

[Enceladus]

Sedan ska detta upp i Senaten också, och där bakas det hela, som tidigare framhållits, ihop till en enda proposition. Eftersom paketet öser bomber och granater till Netanyahu-regimens urskillningslösa krigföring i Gaza verkar det ev. kunna finnas en del motstånd där:

Senate could move fast on foreign aid package

The first roll-call votes on the package are scheduled for early Tuesday afternoon, including a vote to invoke cloture. This starts the 30-hour clock before final passage unless there’s an agreement to vote earlier.

[...]

These amendments will all be rejected, and the underlying bill is expected to easily clear the 60-vote threshold. The vast majority of the Senate Democratic Caucus and roughly half the GOP conference will vote for it.

[...]

Appearing on “Fox News Sunday,” Graham said Vance’s arguments are “garbage” and invited the Ohio Republican to visit Ukraine.

Demokraterna har betydligt bättre partidisciplin. I februari godkände senaten ett liknande stödpaket med röstsiffrorna 67–32. Den gången röstade Graham nej!

House clears foreign aid package

→ The Ukraine aid – totaling $61 billion – passed 311-112, with 210 Democrats and 101 Republicans voting in favor. One hundred and twelve Republicans opposed the bill.

→ The Israel funding bill cleared the chamber 366-58, with 173 Democrats in favor and 193 Republicans supporting. Of the 58 members opposed, 37 were Democrats and 21 were Republicans.

→ The Indo-Pacific package passed 385-34, with 34 Republicans voting against the bill. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) voted present.

Republikanerna har förstås Israel som högsta prioritet. Men alla demokrater röstade ja till Ukraina-paketet. Vilken partidisciplin jämfört med det andra partiet!

The winner of this Congress? Joe Biden

But instead of “democratizing” the House as the HFC wanted, these concessions undermined McCarthy and then Johnson while playing into Democrats’ hands. The Rules Committee — the speaker’s vehicle for controlling the floor — is broken. Hardline conservatives have repeatedly blocked GOP legislation because they didn’t think it went far enough.

Eventually, Biden, Schumer and Democrats — joined by moderate Republicans — stepped in to form a governing coalition as the House GOP leadership faltered.

The all-or-nothing nature of the GOP internal politics has ensured that Republicans haven’t puled off any real legislative achievements, as Roy has told everyone repeatedly. Conservatives don’t take half-victories. They reject strategies that could lead to small wins. But ideological purity isn’t a winning play for a congressional majority.

Churchill har sagt att en kompromiss är konsten att dela en kaka så att alla tror att de har fått den största biten. Förra veckan råkade Johnson bli en Churchill!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

But instead of “democratizing” the House as the HFC wanted, these concessions undermined McCarthy and then Johnson while playing into Democrats’ hands. The Rules Committee — the speaker’s vehicle for controlling the floor — is broken. Hardline conservatives have repeatedly blocked GOP legislation because they didn’t think it went far enough.

Eventually, Biden, Schumer and Democrats — joined by moderate Republicans — stepped in to form a governing coalition as the House GOP leadership faltered.

The all-or-nothing nature of the GOP internal politics has ensured that Republicans haven’t puled off any real legislative achievements, as Roy has told everyone repeatedly. Conservatives don’t take half-victories. They reject strategies that could lead to small wins. But ideological purity isn’t a winning play for a congressional majority.

Churchill har sagt att en kompromiss är konsten att dela en kaka så att alla tror att de har fått den största biten. Förra veckan råkade Johnson bli en Churchill!

Nåja, sir Winston Churchill var en principfast man. Det kan man inte säga om kappvändaren Johnson. Men den här gången vände han kappan rätt.

[Enceladus]

Kina behöver inte gå någon balansgång i egentlig mening och Onkel Xi hyser säker ingen större oro för "att dra på sig västs ilska". Han kan nu luta sig bakåt och se på hur Vladimir Vladimirovitj klarar ut detta.

Norilsk Nickel to move copper smelter from Russia to China as sanctions bite

Norilsk Nickel, the metals group controlled by Russia’s richest man Vladimir Potanin, will move some copper smelting production from its home country to China, as western sanctions restrict access to key pieces of equipment and cut profitability.

[...]

Potanin said the sanctions have cut Norilsk’s revenues by at least 15 per cent since 2022 because of a gamut of difficulties around international payments, delivery refusals and pricing discounts, as well as troubles over plans to reduce sulphur dioxide pollution at its copper plants.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has already signed off on the plans, according to Potanin. The issue is included on the agenda for “Russia-Chinese meetings” at the highest level — an apparent reference to Putin’s planned trip to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this year — and “has received political support”, Potanin said.

Ja, Onkel Xi kan luta sig bakåt och se på hur Vladimir Vladimirovitj omvandlar Ryssland till en kinesisk vasall:

De två ledarna har en del frågor att dryfta. De västliga sanktionerna mot Ryssland har gjort landet desperat beroende av Kina. Peking har tackat och tagit emot, men har samtidigt manövrerat med viss försiktighet, på grund av risken för ”andrahands-sanktioner”.

[...]

Det understryker att den rysk-kinesiska relationen blivit allt mer ojämlik. Kina är överlägset i storlek och teknologisk utveckling, och många ser tecken på att Ryssland är på väg att bli en kinesisk vasall. Beroendet av väst är ersatt av östberoende. Putin kan inte vara omedveten om det, men anser sig inte ha något annat val. Inte om han ska vinna kriget i Ukraina och stå emot trycket från väst.

[...]

En rysk erövring av hela Ukraina skulle få till följd att USA tvingas stationera mer trupper, stridsflyg, luftvärn och pansar för att säkra den europeiska östfronten. Det ger Kina större möjligheter att öka sitt inflytande i östra Asien. Vinner Ukraina kriget kommer ett försvagat och isolerat Ryssland att än mer bli en politisk och ekonomisk lillebror till Kina.

Örlogskaptenen Anders Puck Nielsen har en video på samma tema:



Kina och Iran är nöjda så länge Ryssland får USA att flytta fokus och resurser från Asien till Europa.

Chechen leader Kadyrov suffering from pancreatic necrosis, says Russian media outlet

The Russian socio-political newspaper Novaya Gazeta Europe has reported that Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is seriously ill with pancreatic necrosis with no hope of recovery. [The Chechen Republic, also known as Chechnya, is a federal subject of the Russian Federation; the Ukrainian parliament has recognised it as the temporarily Russian-occupied territory of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria – ed.]

Ukraina hoppas däremot att Kadyrovs hälsoproblem får Ryssland att flytta fokus och resurser till Tjetjenien.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Kina behöver inte gå någon balansgång i egentlig mening och Onkel Xi hyser säker ingen större oro för "att dra på sig västs ilska". Han kan nu luta sig bakåt och se på hur Vladimir Vladimirovitj klarar ut detta.

Norilsk Nickel to move copper smelter from Russia to China as sanctions bite

Norilsk Nickel, the metals group controlled by Russia’s richest man Vladimir Potanin, will move some copper smelting production from its home country to China, as western sanctions restrict access to key pieces of equipment and cut profitability.

[...]

Potanin said the sanctions have cut Norilsk’s revenues by at least 15 per cent since 2022 because of a gamut of difficulties around international payments, delivery refusals and pricing discounts, as well as troubles over plans to reduce sulphur dioxide pollution at its copper plants.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has already signed off on the plans, according to Potanin. The issue is included on the agenda for “Russia-Chinese meetings” at the highest level — an apparent reference to Putin’s planned trip to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this year — and “has received political support”, Potanin said.

Ja, Onkel Xi kan luta sig bakåt och se på hur Vladimir Vladimirovitj omvandlar Ryssland till en kinesisk vasall:

Se där, ytterligare en förutsägelse som visat sig stämma.

Ja, man kan bli norilsk för mindre! Och nu ska USA:s nästan lika spinkiga utrikesminister resa till den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen, för att försöka få den på andra tankar: Blinken heading back to China, with a threat over military aid to Russia

Reports have long circulated that China has been sending everything from vehicles to bullet-proof vests to Russia for use in its war against Ukraine, with the dual-use technology having both civilian and military applications.

The official said that China's support means that Moscow has "largely reconstituted its defense industrial base, which has an impact not just on the battlefield in Ukraine but poses a larger threat, we believe, to broader European security. "

Officials in the U.S. have this month briefed that China is also shipping parts and microchips used for the production of drones, cruise missiles and armored vehicles. Blinken's trip runs to Friday, according to the State Department, and is set to include both Shanghai and Beijing.

At a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Capri, Italy, late last week, the West's top diplomats issued a joint warning to Iran that if it is found to be sending ballistic missiles and related military technology to Russia then it would face further sanctions.

Speaking following the G7 meeting, Blinken said that China is Russia's "primary contributor" when it comes to industrial support for arms. "We see China sharing machine tools, semiconductors, other dual use items that have helped Russia rebuild the defense industrial base," Blinken said.

Föga oväntat har den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen redan andra tankar: Blinken's China visit highlights US needs to cooperate with China on domestic, intl issues

Before US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's upcoming visit to China, US officials adopted their usual tactic of using harsh language to apply pressure on China, expressing so-called strong concerns about China's support for Russia and the Taiwan question. Chinese observers stated that the recent frequent visits of Blinken and a string of US officials to China recently indicate that Washington is unable to solve domestic and global issues without cooperation from China. Therefore, when seeking help from Beijing, the US would be wise to communicate with China respectfully and as equals, rather than condescendingly.

Sedan ser ju kommunistdiktaturen till att öka förtrycket ytterligare: China sees foreign threats ‘everywhere’ as powerful spy agency takes center stage

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Och så har Polens president Duda och regeringen under Donald Tusk rykt ihop igen, denna gång kring Scholz ideliga luftförsvarsinitiativ ESSI:
Will Poland join Sky Shield? High-level clashes show political fight

“I accepted with satisfaction the assessment and opinion of the generals and Minister Siewiera that my efforts make sense for Poland to become part of many systems, which should ultimately create an iron dome as tight as possible over the Polish sky” Tusk said. “They confirmed clearly that it is a pity that there was no previous positive decision to participate in the ESSI. We will cooperate within the ESSI.”

But the same day Tusk took fire from Polish President Andrzej Duda, an ally of the previous government led by the nationalist Law and Justice party.

Duda described Sky Shield as a “German business project,” hardly a compliment given the kind of fighting with Germany the previous government attempted to stoke for political purposes. (Tusk, for his part, said “It doesn’t bother me at all that the main initiators of this initiative were Germans.”)

Som jag skrev om ett annat östeuropeiskt land tidigare; i längden är det inrikespolitiskt ohållbart om presidenten och regeringen befinner sig på ständig kollisionskurs beträffande utrikespolitiken. Men vad som gör Duda så styv i korken är att han vet att Donald Tusks regering (som Duda i det längsta försökte förhindra, genom att först utnämna en kortlivad regering med sina egna PiS-kompisar) inte har parlamentsmajoritet nog att undanröja presidentveton. Det gör att han kan köra sitt egen race, nästan som Urho Kekkonen på sin tid.

Dudas mål är att försöka framkalla ett nyval till parlamentet, där han hoppas bli av med Tusk och kunna återinsätta sina PiS-kompisar, innan hans mandatperiod löper ut. Gissa vem som har störst nytta av detta (förutom Trump, förstås)?


Kan det vara äkta silver?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Och så är Orban, tillsammans med de revanschlystna polska PiS-arna igång igen för att fixa maktbasen i EU-parlamentet: Morawiecki, Orbán plot reshuffle in EU Parliament with Le Pen

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and former Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, members of the right-wing ‘national-conservative’ camp, are planning a reshuffle of powers in the European Parliament in an attempt to gain enough leverage in the next term.

Although working with Marine Le Pen is not ruled out, her party’s exact positioning in the new balance remains unclear, while Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will be the ultimate dealmaker.

With June’s EU elections looming and a boosted national-conservative ECR group and far-right ID, Orbán’s party, Fidesz, is considering which faction to join after they left the centre-right EPP in 2021.

“The current structure is not good: national conservative forces are taking the lead in the polls, and they don’t have a proper voice in the European Parliament”, Balázs Orbán, Viktor Orbán’s political director, told Euractiv.

“So we need to create an environment where national conservative forces are much more heard on the European stage as well,” he said, taking a dig at the current formations of ID, ECR and their national delegations, which, he said, became an ineffective counter force to “federalist” parties when the UK and its “sovereigntists” forces left the EU.

Asked by Euractiv if Fidesz would join ECR, his political director answered, “We have many options,” including joining ECR, ID, or forming a new group, not discarding the idea of “written documents” when coalition building.

Mateusz Morawiecki var som bekant PM i den polska låtsasregering som president Andrzej Duda (i stil med kung Gustaf V, före parlamentarismens genombrott i Sverige) utnämnde 27/11 2023 men som avsattes av parlamentet 11/12 samma år. Därefter var president Duda tvungen att, motvilligt, utse Donald Tusk till regeringsbildare, men skyttegravskriget fortsätter.

Meloni ska tydligen sy ihop detta. Det ska nog gå bra.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det här var en bok som jag inte uppmärksammat tidigare, och nyligen utgiven: En tid för krig av den gamle professorn i underrättelseanalys Wilhelm Agrell.

Det ryska anfallet mot Ukraina den 24 februari 2022 var ett historiskt av görande ögonblick som i ett slag oåterkalleligt förändrade Europas säkerhet på samma sätt som det tyska anfallet mot Polen den 1 september 1939. Vägen mot andra världskriget var liksom Ukrainakrigets förhistoria kantad av omvärldens önsketänkande, felbedömningar och obeslutsamhet. Historien erbjuder inget facit men gör det lättare att i efterhand urskilja den destruk tiva dynamiken i två europeiska säkerhetskatastrofer där en rådande fredsordning, som upplevts som stabil, steg för steg smulades sönder.

Wilhelm Agrell är en tongivande röst i den säkerhetspolitiska debatten sedan flera decennier och sätter i En tid för krig en pågående konflikt i sitt historiska sammanhang. Han ställer två epokgörande krisförlopp bredvid varandra, jämför deras till synes obönhörliga dynamik och finner något allmängiltigt. Pardansen mellan anfallarens brutalitet och omvärldens felbedömningar utgör den farligaste utmaningen mot varje säkerhetssystem och dess förmåga att hantera existentiella hot.

Det överensstämmer ganska väl med vad den ryske exilförfattaren och anti-putinisten Arkadij Babtjenko förutsäger Arkadij Babtjenko: ”Vi har ett europeiskt storkrig framför oss”

och som jag skrev om här: viewtopic.php?p=408636#p408636

[Enceladus]

Sedan ska detta upp i Senaten också, och där bakas det hela, som tidigare framhållits, ihop till en enda proposition. Eftersom paketet öser bomber och granater till Netanyahu-regimens urskillningslösa krigföring i Gaza verkar det ev. kunna finnas en del motstånd där:

Senate tees up Ukraine, Israel aid bill for final passage

Senators voted 80-19 to limit debate on the $95 billion foreign aid package, which includes $61 billion for Ukraine, $26 billion for Israel and humanitarian aid, $8 billion for Taiwan, and a smorgasbord of national security items that includes a possible ban on TikTok.

[...]

Tuesday’s vote saw a number of Senate Republicans who voted no in February support the current supplemental. Sens. Katie Britt (Ala.), Tom Cotton (Ark.), Deb Fischer (Neb.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Cindy Hyde-Smith (Miss.), James Lankford (Okla.), Markwayne Mullin (Okla.), Pete Ricketts (Neb.) and Tim Scott (S.C.) all voted to advance the package.

Graham, Lankford, Mullin and Scott all added that they plan to vote “aye” on final passage, meaning that a majority of the conference is set to support it.

Oväntat många senatorer röstade ja till att avancera stödpaketet till Ukraina, Israel och Taiwan. Däremot var det väntat att just Graham skulle byta sida.

McConnell blasts Tucker Carlson for demonizing Ukraine aid

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) blasted conservative commentator Tucker Carlson on Tuesday for playing a leading role in demonizing the idea of sending military aid to Ukraine, saying the former Fox News host wound up “where he should have been all along” when he gave Russian President Vladimir Putin a megaphone during a fawning interview earlier this year.

“I think the demonization of Ukraine began by Tucker Carlson, who in my opinion ended up where he should have been all along, which was interviewing Vladimir Putin,” McConnell said, referring to Carlson’s two-hour interview with Putin in February, which drew widespread criticism for not challenging Putin’s dubious claims and declarations.

[...]

Even before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Carlson called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — who was democratically elected — a “dictator,” and asked why the United States wasn’t siding with Russia in the conflict.

Som sagt, den amerikanska högern genomgår en identitetskris. Med fakta på bordet återstår bara de mest extrema elementen.

Den högerextreme republikanske senatorn Tommy Tuberville kopplar ihop utnämningen av nya chefer för armén och marinkåren med abortfrågan och blockerar den förstnämnda.

'Who put Marjorie Taylor Greene in charge?' Conservative media sours on far-right rep

Jong-Fast observed that Greene has started to become known as "Moscow Marjorie" by both liberals and conservatives.

"Monday, the [New York] Post published a column from Piers Morgan, the longtime Murdoch editor, calling Greene 'Vladimir Putin’s chief ‘useful idiot,’” Jong-Fast wrote. She quoted Howard Polskin, publisher of conservative media tracking website the Righting, who remarked that he was "surprised — pleasantly so" that the unflattering nickname stuck.

[...]

Aside from just angering far-right media, Greene is also drawing the ire of other elected Republicans. On Tuesday, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who is considered among the more institutionalist members of the Senate Republican Caucus, didn't mince words about Greene when asked about her on Capitol Hill.

"She is dragging our brand down," Tillis told CNN congressional reporter Lauren Fox. "I think she’s uninformed, she’s a total waste of time, and I’m embarrassed to have actually lived geographically in her district at one time before she was there."

Fascisten MTG kommer inte heller undan. Utländska agenter ska skämmas. Förhoppningsvis blir Tuberville nästa att grillas inför valet!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Sedan ska detta upp i Senaten också, och där bakas det hela, som tidigare framhållits, ihop till en enda proposition. Eftersom paketet öser bomber och granater till Netanyahu-regimens urskillningslösa krigföring i Gaza verkar det ev. kunna finnas en del motstånd där:

Senate tees up Ukraine, Israel aid bill for final passage

Senators voted 80-19 to limit debate on the $95 billion foreign aid package, which includes $61 billion for Ukraine, $26 billion for Israel and humanitarian aid, $8 billion for Taiwan, and a smorgasbord of national security items that includes a possible ban on TikTok.

Det var väl än så länge bara en procedurfråga. Vi avvaktar huvudomröstningen, faktiskt!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

McConnell blasts Tucker Carlson for demonizing Ukraine aid

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) blasted conservative commentator Tucker Carlson on Tuesday for playing a leading role in demonizing the idea of sending military aid to Ukraine, saying the former Fox News host wound up “where he should have been all along” when he gave Russian President Vladimir Putin a megaphone during a fawning interview earlier this year.

“I think the demonization of Ukraine began by Tucker Carlson, who in my opinion ended up where he should have been all along, which was interviewing Vladimir Putin,” McConnell said, referring to Carlson’s two-hour interview with Putin in February, which drew widespread criticism for not challenging Putin’s dubious claims and declarations.

[...]

Even before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Carlson called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — who was democratically elected — a “dictator,” and asked why the United States wasn’t siding with Russia in the conflict.

Som sagt, den amerikanska högern genomgår en identitetskris. Med fakta på bordet återstår bara de mest extrema elementen.

Den högerextreme republikanske senatorn Tommy Tuberville kopplar ihop utnämningen av nya chefer för armén och marinkåren med abortfrågan och blockerar den förstnämnda.

'Who put Marjorie Taylor Greene in charge?' Conservative media sours on far-right rep

Jong-Fast observed that Greene has started to become known as "Moscow Marjorie" by both liberals and conservatives.

"Monday, the [New York] Post published a column from Piers Morgan, the longtime Murdoch editor, calling Greene 'Vladimir Putin’s chief ‘useful idiot,’” Jong-Fast wrote. She quoted Howard Polskin, publisher of conservative media tracking website the Righting, who remarked that he was "surprised — pleasantly so" that the unflattering nickname stuck.

[...]

Aside from just angering far-right media, Greene is also drawing the ire of other elected Republicans. On Tuesday, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who is considered among the more institutionalist members of the Senate Republican Caucus, didn't mince words about Greene when asked about her on Capitol Hill.

"She is dragging our brand down," Tillis told CNN congressional reporter Lauren Fox. "I think she’s uninformed, she’s a total waste of time, and I’m embarrassed to have actually lived geographically in her district at one time before she was there."

Fascisten MTG kommer inte heller undan. Utländska agenter ska skämmas. Förhoppningsvis blir Tuberville nästa att grillas inför valet!

Spekulera går ju. Valen i höst avgör.

Det viktiga nu är att detta klubbas, för något mer blir det inte i år från det hållet.

[Enceladus]

Det var väl än så länge bara en procedurfråga. Vi avvaktar huvudomröstningen, faktiskt!

Både ja och nej. Det enda sättet att stoppa filibustern är om tre femtedelar av senaten åberopar så kallad cloture, vilket är en tvångsavslutning av debatten. Huvudomröstningen kräver bara majoritet. Demokraterna har 51 av 100 mandat (Sanders röst behövs alltså inte). I praktiken är det klappat och klart.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det var väl än så länge bara en procedurfråga. Vi avvaktar huvudomröstningen, faktiskt!

Både ja och nej. Det enda sättet att stoppa filibustern är om tre femtedelar av senaten åberopar så kallad cloture, vilket är en tvångsavslutning av debatten. Huvudomröstningen kräver bara majoritet. Demokraterna har 51 av 100 mandat (Sanders röst behövs alltså inte). I praktiken är det klappat och klart.

Vi avvaktar som sagt huvudomröstningen! Den är nämligen nödvändig, se. Det är väl inte ens helt klarlagt när den kan ske.

Demokraterna har 48 mandat, republikanerna 49. Tre senatorer betecknar sig som oberoende (bl.a. Bernie Sanders), men röstar i regel med demokraterna.

[Enceladus]

Vi avvaktar som sagt huvudomröstningen! Den är nämligen nödvändig, se. Det är väl inte ens helt klarlagt när den kan ske.

Demokraterna har 48 mandat, republikanerna 49. Tre senatorer betecknar sig som oberoende (bl.a. Bernie Sanders), men röstar i regel med demokraterna.

Congress sends Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan aid package to president’s desk

The Senate overwhelmingly passed 79-18 President Joe Biden’s $95 billion foreign aid request on Tuesday night to arm Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, sending it to the White House after six months of delays in Congress.

[...]

“The next thing to focus on is the Defense Department’s budget for next year,” McConnell told Defense News. “The president’s request has not been adequate. We need to make sure we’re doing more in defense through the regular appropriations process.”

[...]

Numerous Republican senators who voted against the Senate’s first iteration of the bill in February voted in favor of it on Tuesday after House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., opted to advance a similar package in the House last week. Johnson had refused to move the foreign aid bill for months. But he reversed course following a meeting with Trump and Iran’s subsequent missile and drone attack on Israel earlier this month.

Röstsiffrorna för huvudomröstningen blev således 79–18, d.v.s. ungefär samma som för tvångsavslutningen (80–19) och betydligt bättre än i februari (67–32).

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ja, Mitch "Frozen" McConnell gjorde sitt jobb.

Senate passes $95 billion package sending aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan after months of delay

The Senate on Tuesday passed a long-delayed $95 billion package with wide bipartisan support after both sides of Capitol Hill have struggled for months to send aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

The final vote was 79-18. Fifteen Republicans voted with three Democrats against the bill. Forty-eight Democrats and 31 Republicans voted for the bill.

The legislation next goes to President Joe Biden to sign it into law, who said he would sign the package Wednesday. Its passage is a significant victory for the US president, congressional Democrats and Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, who long pushed to send aid to Ukraine even as the right wing of his party increasingly soured on support for Kyiv.

Historiskt är McConnell annars känd som en riktig filibustrare. Han ska visst avgå som republikanernas gruppledare i Senaten i höst, men hans mandat sträcker sig fram till 2027 - om inte hälsan sviktar, vilket det finns en hel del tecken på. Förutom det så riskerar han ingenting, så han kan gott gå emot Trump och MAGA-gänget: Congress sends Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan aid package to president’s desk

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., did not mince words at a Tuesday press conference where he rebuked what he called the “isolationist” wing of his party with ties to former President Donald Trump. McConnell blamed conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson for the “demonization of Ukraine” and Biden for submitting base defense budget requests he views as insufficient to counter Russia and China.

“Clearly on the Ukraine portion of this, we had difficulty on the Republican side,” said McConnell, who is stepping down as GOP leader at the end of the year. “We need to get our industrial base going. Fully aside from what we experienced in Ukraine, we needed to deal with the two big powers that are out there.”

Det intressanta är att tre senatorer, som betecknas som demokrater i artikeln ovan, inte ville stödja paketet, eftersom det öser bomber och granater över Netanyahu-regimen och dess urskillningslösa krig i Gaza.

[Enceladus]

Det intressanta är att tre senatorer, som betecknas som demokrater i artikeln ovan, inte ville stödja paketet, eftersom det öser bomber och granater över Netanyahu-regimen och dess urskillningslösa krig i Gaza.

Det är samma tre senatorer som i februari, d.v.s. Merkley, Sanders och Welch. Men det är säkert intressant för den som inte följde förra omröstningen.

Historiskt är McConnell annars känd som en riktig filibustrare. Han ska visst avgå som republikanernas gruppledare i Senaten i höst, men hans mandat sträcker sig fram till 2027 - om inte hälsan sviktar, vilket det finns en hel del tecken på. Förutom det så riskerar han ingenting, så han kan gott gå emot Trump och MAGA-gänget:

Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell lock arms to pass foreign aid package

The Trump bump: Oddly enough, some GOP senators believe that former President Donald Trump actually enabled passage of this bill in the end — or at least gave some political cover to those who flipped from “no” to “yes.”

[...]

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who’s running to replace Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader, said his interpretation of Trump’s remarks was that he’s “supportive of it.” Cornyn called Johnson “a profile in courage” for putting Ukraine funding on the House floor after months of delay.

[...]

Shortly after the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, McConnell approached Schumer and asked him not to separate Israel aid from any Ukraine funding.

This was in McConnell’s interest because it insulated him from his party’s divisions over Ukraine and made any aid package easier to pass. Schumer would also eventually face progressive anger over the staggering number of Palestinian casualties from Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

Tydligen gjorde senatens två ledare Schumer och McConnell upp för att skydda sig från kritik av sina ytterkanter - och inte minst Trump.

Spekulera går ju. Valen i höst avgör.

1 in 5 GOP primary voters keep bucking Trump. What does it mean?

Nearly 1 in 5 GOP primary voters across four contests Tuesday voted for an option other than the presumptive nominee. That’s about the same proportion that voted against him on the last big primary day, March 19.

While President Biden continues to cede votes as well — largely protests over his Gaza war policy, reflected in choices like “uncommitted” — Trump is ceding more.

Since Nikki Haley dropped out of the campaign after Super Tuesday on March 5, an average of 17 percent of those voting in GOP contests have voted against Trump, compared to 11 percent against Biden.

Kriget i Gaza hjälper inte Biden, men Trump hjälper inte heller Trump. Det är knappast optimalt att kampanja från en rättssal!

Vem är frågan ställd till?

Biden admin isn’t fully convinced Ukraine can win, even with new aid

“The immediate goal is to stop Ukrainian losses and help Ukraine regain momentum and turn the tide on the battlefield. After that, the goal is to help Ukraine begin to regain its territory,” said one of the officials. “Will they have what they need to win? Ultimately, yes. But it’s not a guarantee that they will. Military operations are much more complicated than that.”

[...]

Many analysts of the conflict insist the win-or-not-lose dichotomy is contrived. The aid tranche should be judged by whether it improves Ukraine’s fighting and negotiating position against Russia, the RAND Corporation’s Samuel Charap said.

“Importantly it could reduce Russian optimism about the long game and thus make Moscow more inclined to compromise,” he continued, “so rather than a win-lose binary we’re talking about a spectrum of more to less favorable conditions for the endgame. This gives the Ukrainians an important leg up to improve those conditions.”

Har Charap från Valdai Discussion Club bytt fot om att skicka vapen till Ukraina!? Frågan är ställd till den som har läst Charaps tidigare texter!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Vem är frågan ställd till?

Biden admin isn’t fully convinced Ukraine can win, even with new aid

“The immediate goal is to stop Ukrainian losses and help Ukraine regain momentum and turn the tide on the battlefield. After that, the goal is to help Ukraine begin to regain its territory,” said one of the officials. “Will they have what they need to win? Ultimately, yes. But it’s not a guarantee that they will. Military operations are much more complicated than that.”

[...]

Many analysts of the conflict insist the win-or-not-lose dichotomy is contrived. The aid tranche should be judged by whether it improves Ukraine’s fighting and negotiating position against Russia, the RAND Corporation’s Samuel Charap said.

“Importantly it could reduce Russian optimism about the long game and thus make Moscow more inclined to compromise,” he continued, “so rather than a win-lose binary we’re talking about a spectrum of more to less favorable conditions for the endgame. This gives the Ukrainians an important leg up to improve those conditions.”

Har Charap från Valdai Discussion Club bytt fot om att skicka vapen till Ukraina!? Frågan är ställd till den som har läst Charaps tidigare texter!

"Biden admin isn’t fully convinced Ukraine can win, even with new aid". Men herre -lar, det är ju "rysk propaganda". Har Springer-koncernen gått och blivit putinister?

Bara det faktum att man läst en text ger knappast någon annan rätten avkräva en kommentarer kring denna. Sedan pratas det om "texter". Jag vet inget om denne Charap, och den enda "text" jag refererat till där det namnet förekommer är denna:
Avoiding a Long War - U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict (RAND)

Min enda kommentar blir i så fall att det citat som återges i Politico-artikeln verkar stämma hyggligt överens med de åsikter som uttrycks i essän från RAND. Den är fortfarande läsvärd, men man behöver inte nödvändigtvis instämma i de bedömningar som framförs där. I regel värderar jag texter efter innehållet, inte efter författarna. Det är skillnaden mellan ett vetenskapligt och en konspirationsteoretiskt tänkande. Sedan kan man göra det enkelt för sig och avfärda allt som inte passar de egna åsikterna som "rysk propaganda". Det kräver ju ingen större tankeverksamhet.

En mer aktuell översikt återfinns här: How will Ukraine spend its new US aid?

It’s a fraught question amid Russian gains, uncertain long-term U.S. support, and Kyiv’s eventual need to end the war.

Den CSIS-studie som refereras i Defense One-artikeln, och som berör den ryska militära förmågan återfinns här:
Back in Stock? The State of Russia's Defense Industry after Two Years of the War (pdf)

[Enceladus]

Hur stor militär påverkan har dessa attacker på oljedepåer egentligen? Ur ett ekonomiskt perspektiv är ju raffinaderier viktigare.

Lower oil refinery output hits value of Russia's Q1 exports, central bank says

Lower production at Russian oil refineries was partly to blame for the continued decline in the country's exports in the first quarter of this year, the central bank said on Thursday.

[...]

As the threat of secondary sanctions deters Chinese banks from facilitating trade with Russia, companies are flocking to the one Russian bank with a Chinese branch and facing up to six months of delays, sources told Reuters earlier this month.

Spelar attackerna mot oljedepåer någon betydande roll i detta sammanhang?

Containers of petroleum products on fire in Russia's Omsk – video

Three containers of petroleum products caught fire on the Krasnoyarsk road in the Siberian city of Omsk on 25 April. The fire covered an area of 500 sq. m.

[...]

Three railway tank cars caught fire in temporarily occupied Simferopol, Crimea, on 24 April. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations reported that one person was killed and three injured.

Ryssland har drabbats av en våg av mystiska oljerelaterade bränder. Är detta sabotage, ett sammanträffande eller ett resultat av överbelastad infrastruktur?

Exclusive: EU's proposed Russia sanctions to target oil tankers, ships moving North Korean equipment

The European Commission is expected to propose sanctions on ships delivering North Korean military equipment to Russia as well as tankers that flout the G7 price cap on Russian oil, European Union sources said on Wednesday.

The Commission is finalising its proposal for a 14th package of sanctions against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.

USA skickade långräckviddiga ATACMS-missiler som en respons på Nordkoreas involvering i kriget i Ukraina. EU kan förstås bättre än så här:

Så vill Ryssland ducka sanktionerna med ny megasatsning

Ryssland kommer fortsätta försöka parera de västerländska sanktionerna, anser Torbjörn Becker, chef för Östekonomiska institutet vid Handelshögskolan i Stockholm. Han menar att sanktionerna måste intensifieras. En av anledningarna till att USA och EU inte satsat fullt ut på sanktionerna bedöms av vissa bedömare vara för att kunna ha hävstång för att påverka om det skulle behövas framöver.

”Det är ett meningslöst argument. Ryssland bedriver ju ett fullskaligt krig i Ukraina där man tar livet av människor varje dag. Vad mer ska Ryssland göra för att man ska kunna gå hela vägen? Jag har väldigt svårt att förstå det här med att spara lite av sanktionskrutet. Ryssland är i dag en aggressiv stat som inte lägger några fingrar emellan när det gäller vad man gör i Ukraina.”

[...]

”Om vi kan sätta press på Ryssland så att de inte tjänar så mycket pengar så blir ju också Ryssland en mycket mindre attraktiv handelspartner för Kina. Är Kina beredda att riskera handel med väst för att de ska fortsätta handla med Ryssland?”

Återigen för lite och för sent!

[Enceladus]

Russia Holds Rate as Attacks by Ukraine Spur Inflation Risks

Now, traditionally affordable staples such as chicken may grow pricier as attacks continue on the Belgorod region, a major agricultural area that accounts for 14% of all of Russia’s livestock and poultry production.

Moreover, at least nine major refineries have been successfully attacked this year, currently taking offline 11% of the country’s total capacity by some estimates. Although there’s been little movement in the cost of fuel at the pump within Russia, the flurry of attacks prompted a surge in prices for gasoline and diesel on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange.

[...]

“The rhetoric remains tough, and there are no hints of a start to easing monetary policy yet,” said Natalia Milchakova, an analyst at Freedom Finance. “We expect that the central bank will start to reduce the rate no earlier than September.”

De ukrainska attackerna mot ryskt territorium är synbarligen effektiva. Ukraina har inte tid att vänta ett år på nästa kongress. Biden kan ju fråga MBS om olja!

Russia’s CBR maintains key rate at 16%

The board of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) resolved to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 16% at the policy meeting on April 26, making a third meeting in a row that the rate is maintained flat.

[...]

The wording of the CBR could be seen as rather hawkish and not in line with previous forecasts of the analysts that the CBR will proceed with the key rate cutting either this summer or autumn.
Some analysts believe that should inflation not retreat significantly, the CBR could leave the key interest rate at 16% throughout 2024.

"Borrowers should be prepared for the fact that money in the economy will remain expensive for a long time, and possibly even rise in price," Sovcombank's chief analyst Mikhail Vasilyev warned RBC business portal after CBR’s key rate decision.

Ryssland skulle behöva avsluta kriget för att bekämpa inflationen. De ukrainska attackerna gör förstås inte saken bättre.