Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Lennart Petersen]

Att Ryssland edvetet ljuger om sänkta fartyg och besttning kan ha sin orsak att flottisterna är garanterade en ersättning till de anhöriga i dimension 1mlijon SEK om de stupar i strid. När kryssaren Moskva sjönk framfördes lögnen att fartyget sjunkit i hårt väder och så slapp man betala ersättning Någon som hört talas om ett krigsfartyg i dimension kryssare som gått under i dåligt väder ?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det enda europeiska land som har en något sånär trovärdig avskräckning är Frankrike, mycket beroende på dess egen självständiga kärnvapenstyrka (de brittiska kärnvapnet står som bekant under amerikanskt kommando).

Russia is working to subvert French support for Ukraine, documents show

The Kremlin documents, obtained by a European security service and reviewed by The Washington Post, show that Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy chief of staff in President Vladimir Putin’s administration, has tasked Kremlin political strategists with promoting political discord in France through social media and French political figures, opinion leaders and activists. Those figures were not identified by name in the documents seen by The Post. Moscow’s goal is to undermine support for Ukraine and weaken NATO resolve, the documents show. The effort parallels similar interference in Germany, where the Kremlin has attempted to marry the far right and the far left in an antiwar alliance, The Post previously reported.

[...]

Arguing that China poses an existential threat to Europe, he told The Post in a series of interviews that he is proposing launching a foundation with Moscow’s backing that would advocate for a cease-fire in Ukraine, with the Kremlin maintaining its grip on the country’s eastern regions in return for drawing closer to the West again and out of its deepening alliance with China. He also said he would promote a new slate of Western European far-right leaders ready to do business with Moscow, ahead of the E.U.'s parliamentary elections next year.

[...]

At one point, over the summer, shortly after the June riots rocked Macron’s administration, Schaffhauser said he’d even been in talks with several former senior French military intelligence officers about how to bring a network of former French generals to power in case of crisis and political collapse in France. “We have to propose the best government for France, a shadow government … people who are really patriots,” Schaffhauser said.

Frågan är vad som händer med Frankrike efter presidentvalet 2027. Självutnämnda "patrioter" som vill sälja ut sitt land kan ta makten - eventuellt med våld.

Exakt. Ovanstående börjar bli en allt vanligare tankefigur hos europeiska (även svenska exempel finns) fascister, dvs. att - som ett alternativ till "hitlermodellen" (att störta demokratin med demokratiska medel) - försöka engagera Europas militärledningar till att ta makten genom statskupper, som i Chile eller Grekland.

From the top floor of the house he shares here with a senior Russian diplomat — to whom he rents the apartment below — the man who helped bankroll the French presidential bid of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen has been working on plans to propel pro-Moscow politicians to power.

“We have to change all the governments … All the governments in Western Europe will be changed,” Jean-Luc Schaffhauser, a former member of the European Parliament for Le Pen’s party, said in an interview. “We have to control this. Take the leadership of this.”

Däremot är det kanske inte självklart att tänkta europeiska militärjuntor också är putinister.

Till det kommer ändå att det är en viktig del av Putins europeiska strategi att försöka underminera Frankrike - Europas enda självständiga kärnvapenmakt. Bara att någon högerextremist tror att det går att göra pakt med genom nedanstående resonemang visar ju att han är påväg att lyckas. Europas fascister fattar inte att de bara är nyttiga idioter, på samma sätt som Europas kommunister var det under Stalin-eran.

Arguing that China poses an existential threat to Europe, he told The Post in a series of interviews that he is proposing launching a foundation with Moscow’s backing that would advocate for a cease-fire in Ukraine, with the Kremlin maintaining its grip on the country’s eastern regions in return for drawing closer to the West again and out of its deepening alliance with China.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Till detta kommer såväl europeiska som amerikanska högerextremister, trumpister och fascister.

Maine has joined Colorado in banning Trump from 2024 primary ballot. What happens next?

Maine became the second state after Colorado to bar former President Donald Trump from appearing on its 2024 Republican presidential primary ballot, state officials announced late Thursday.

Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democrat, said the “insurrectionist ban" in the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution applies to Trump and the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. It's the same reason Colorado barred Trump.

[...]

If the [Supreme Court of the United States] declines to review the case, the Colorado Supreme Court's decision will stand. If that happened before Jan. 5, Trump would be removed from the Republican primary election ballot in Colorado.

Däremot kan amerikanska högerextremister, trumpister och fascister ha nått vägs ände. Två delstater har diskat Trump från primärvalet, och SCOTUS avvaktar.

Jag skulle nog inte vara så säker på det. Det extremt svårtolkade 14:e författningstilläggets 3:e paragraf, från 1868 kom till efter inbördeskriget, för att den federala statsmakten ville förhindra gamla sydstatare (som ex.vis sydstaternas "president" Jefferson Davis) att inneha några offentliga ämbeten: What to know about the 14th Amendment and efforts to remove Trump from the 2024 ballot (CNN)

Fourteenth Amendment
Passed by Congress June 13, 1866. Ratified July 9, 1868.
[...........]'

Section 3.
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

Hur kommer USA:s oberäkneliga Högsta Domstol (som kommer att få avgöra frågan, eftersom det saknas majoritet i Kongressen för ett omröstningsförfarande enl. ovan) att tolka detta? Och vilka reaktioner kommer ett domslut som ev. går Trump emot, att framkalla för reaktioner inom den amerikanska högern: Ginna Lindberg: Kan bli våldsamma reaktioner på Trump-beslut (Sveriges Radio). Att hota och skrämma sina politiska fiender fungerar, det vet alla höger- (och vänster-)-extremister.

Och omvänt: om Högsta Domstolen underkänner underrätternas tolkning, kommer det att stärka Trumps kampanj (och i motsvarande mån försvaga Joe Biden)?

Ja, mycket står på spel under supervalåret. Vad kommer vi se att för värld på nyårsaftonen 2024? Blir 2025 det år då fascism och högerextremism gör ett globalt genombrott?

GOTT NYTT ÅR!
(och som Rolf Gustavsson, krönikör i SvD, säger: "Min önskan Gott nytt år är ingen förutsägelse, bara en förhoppning”)

PS. SCOTUS, som Enceladus-kolletivet slänger sig med här, är - förstår sig - en amerikansk förkortning för USA:s Högsta Domstol (Supreme Court of the United States), på samma sätt som POTUS är en förkortning för presidentämbetet. Själv tvekar jag mellan om det låter som en maträtt eller en seglingsterm. Fast man kan ju uttrycka sig på svenska också!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Fascisterna Netanyahu och Bezalel Smotrich (finansminister) verkar jobba på samma "lösning" för Gaza som fascisten Putin jobbar på för de ockuperade territorierna i östra och södra Ukraina:
'100-200,000, Not Two Million': Israel's Finance Minister Envisions Depopulated Gaza (Haaretz)

De ena fördöms, den andra får dunkar i ryggen.


Israels finansminster Bezalel Smotrich

Och banditen Erdogan skär pipor i vassen: In Turkey, Erdogan’s charges of Western hypocrisy stick

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

The Economist har gjort en nyårsintervju med president Zelensky: A New Year’s interview with Volodymyr Zelensky

Det ser mörkt ut i Europa, frågan är mest för vem?

Aid to Ukrainians has become a subject for political horse-trading in America and Europe.

I USA verkar fascister har tagit ett grepp över republikanska partiet och i Europa breder fascismen ut sig under ledning av fetknoppen i Budapest. Situationen påminner en del om läget i Europa 1938/39. Då fanns det starka strömningar, både i Frankrike och UK som ville göra upp med Hitler. Att offra Tjeckoslovakien ansågs vara nödvändigt för att bevara "freden". Hade dessa länder sedan inte ställt ut det olycksaliga löftet till Polen vet man inte hur det hade gått. T.o.m. efter det faktiska krigsutbrottet 1/9 1939 undvek dessa makter att konfrontera Tyskland, vilket gav upphov till det sk. låtsaskriget (phony war). Först i maj 1940 synade Hitler bluffen (även om han egentligen ville ha igång kriget i väst redan före vintern 1939/40).

BBC har intervjuat ett antal brittiska förståsigpåare: Ukraine war: Three ways the conflict could go in 2024

[Enceladus]

Det ser mörkt ut i Europa, frågan är mest för vem?

I USA verkar fascister har tagit ett grepp över republikanska partiet och i Europa breder fascismen ut sig under ledning av fetknoppen i Budapest.

Ironiskt nog kan de fascister som skribenten brukar peka ut som Putins största tillgångar - Musk och Orban - utgöra det största hotet mot Rysslands framtid:

Tesla passerat – BYD är nu världens största elbilstillverkare

Men kinesiska BYD:s kvartalsvolym på 526 409 sålda bilar nådde Tesla inte upp till, vilket gör att BYD nu har kört om Tesla som världens största elbilstillverkare.

I Sverige för BYD en relativt anonym tillvaro fortfarande även om försäljningen tagit fart även här. Under helåret 2023 nyregistrerades 3 200 bilar av den vanligaste modellen, BYD Atto 3, vilket ger en marknadsandel på 1,1 procent. Tesla modell Y toppade den svenska statistiken med 16 400 bilar, eller 5,7 procent av det totala antalet nyregistrerade bilar, enligt Mobility Swedens färska statistik.

Inte ens konflikten med facket stoppade Tesla i Sverige, och snart finns BYD i Ungern. Övriga tillverkare kan tyvärr bara konkurrera med förbränningsmotorer.

Ukrainian attack on Russia's Novorossiysk port had strategic importance, although partners were unhappy – Ukrainska Pravda

Ukraine estimated that Russia's economic losses from the two attacks on Novorossiysk alone amounted to hundreds of millions of dollars.

However, Russia is not the only one. Novorossiysk is also a vast oil transshipment hub. Through this port, oil giants from the United States export Kazakh oil. "Grey exports" of Russian oil under the guise of other brands also come from here.

The game Ukraine was playing involved very high stakes, with the country's leadership, as Ukrainska Pravda found, receiving "warnings" from partners at all levels. Nevertheless, this game paid off. Russia loosened its grip, and Ukraine announced its own temporary sea corridor without Moscow on 10 August.

Däremot tycks Ukrainas så kallade allierade prioritera upprätthållandet av Rysslands oljeexport framför att Ukraina ska vinna kontroll över Svarta havet.

Det blir allt svårare för Ryssland att exportera olja och gas. Nyligen har stora mängder rysk olja fastnat utanför Indien. Dessutom ökar rabatten på rysk olja:

India’s Russian oil imports hit 11-month low in Dec as Sokol cargoes dry up

India’s Russian oil imports declined to an 11-month low in December as the country was unable to take delivery of any cargo of the Sokol grade crude, even as the import volumes of the Urals crude—the mainstay of India’s oil imports from Russia—remained robust in the last month of 2023, shows an analysis of latest shipping data provided by commodity market analytics firm Kpler.

India’s import of the Sokol crude, which is produced in Russia’s Far East region, ran into problems related to Western sanctions and payments over the past month or so, The Indian Express has learnt. As a result, six oil tankers carrying Sokol crude for government-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) were idling close to the Indian waters for weeks, unable to discharge the oil at their destination ports—Vadinar and Paradip, as per ship tracking data. Two of the six tankers are now showing Chinese ports as their destinations, indicating that these cargoes could finally be consumed by Chinese refiners instead.

[...]

“The amassement of Sokol-laden tankers around India will most probably see a sudden resolution over the upcoming days. Of the six tankers that were idling around India’s coast, two have started to indicate Chinese final destinations. As the UAE banking delays of the Sakhalin-I project operator continue, effectively being unable to fully relocate the trading of Sokol cargoes into the relatively calm waters of the Dubai trading world, China might appear as the final solution for some cargoes,” Katona said.

Även de neutrala indierna har inte rysk olja som högsta prioritet. Förra veckan skippade Modi dessutom det årliga toppmötet i Ryssland för andra året i rad.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det ser mörkt ut i Europa, frågan är mest för vem?

I USA verkar fascister har tagit ett grepp över republikanska partiet och i Europa breder fascismen ut sig under ledning av fetknoppen i Budapest.

Ironiskt nog kan de fascister som skribenten brukar peka ut som Putins största tillgångar - Musk och Orban - utgöra det största hotet mot Rysslands framtid:

Tesla passerat – BYD är nu världens största elbilstillverkare

Men kinesiska BYD:s kvartalsvolym på 526 409 sålda bilar nådde Tesla inte upp till, vilket gör att BYD nu har kört om Tesla som världens största elbilstillverkare.

I Sverige för BYD en relativt anonym tillvaro fortfarande även om försäljningen tagit fart även här. Under helåret 2023 nyregistrerades 3 200 bilar av den vanligaste modellen, BYD Atto 3, vilket ger en marknadsandel på 1,1 procent. Tesla modell Y toppade den svenska statistiken med 16 400 bilar, eller 5,7 procent av det totala antalet nyregistrerade bilar, enligt Mobility Swedens färska statistik.

Inte ens konflikten med facket stoppade Tesla i Sverige, och snart finns BYD i Ungern. Övriga tillverkare kan tyvärr bara konkurrera med förbränningsmotorer.

Musk är totalt oberäknelig. Orban, däremot, vet man var man har. Fast han är ju smart nog att inte lägga alla ägg i en korg.

Ett annat fordon, som snart kommer att finnas i Ungern är stridsfordonet Lynx,
First home-built Hungarian Lynx comes off the production line

Snart också utrustat med LV automatkanonsystemet Skyranger 30


och som landet just beställt från Rheinmetall. Han verkar rädd för något. Ska det bli krig?

Annars vet jag ett grannland som behöver de här fordonen bättre.

PS. Var vänlig ge i att dra in elbilar i den här tråden också! Det räcker med Kina-propagandan i andra trådar.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

India’s Russian oil imports hit 11-month low in Dec as Sokol cargoes dry up

India’s Russian oil imports declined to an 11-month low in December as the country was unable to take delivery of any cargo of the Sokol grade crude, even as the import volumes of the Urals crude—the mainstay of India’s oil imports from Russia—remained robust in the last month of 2023, shows an analysis of latest shipping data provided by commodity market analytics firm Kpler.

India’s import of the Sokol crude, which is produced in Russia’s Far East region, ran into problems related to Western sanctions and payments over the past month or so, The Indian Express has learnt. As a result, six oil tankers carrying Sokol crude for government-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) were idling close to the Indian waters for weeks, unable to discharge the oil at their destination ports—Vadinar and Paradip, as per ship tracking data. Two of the six tankers are now showing Chinese ports as their destinations, indicating that these cargoes could finally be consumed by Chinese refiners instead.

[...]

“The amassement of Sokol-laden tankers around India will most probably see a sudden resolution over the upcoming days. Of the six tankers that were idling around India’s coast, two have started to indicate Chinese final destinations. As the UAE banking delays of the Sakhalin-I project operator continue, effectively being unable to fully relocate the trading of Sokol cargoes into the relatively calm waters of the Dubai trading world, China might appear as the final solution for some cargoes,” Katona said.

Även de neutrala indierna har inte rysk olja som högsta prioritet. Förra veckan skippade Modi dessutom det årliga toppmötet i Ryssland för andra året i rad.

Nä, men de prioriterar annat, tydligen: Russia, India closer to joint military equipment production

[Enceladus]

PS. Var vänlig ge i att dra in elbilar i den här tråden också! Det räcker med Kina-propagandan i andra trådar.

Det är knappast någon överdrift - och speciellt inte kinesisk propaganda - att Kinas gröna omställning utgör ett existentiellt hot mot Ryssland:

Will Climate Change Drive a Wedge Between Russia and China?

Beijing’s rush to embrace renewable energy—and Moscow’s reluctance—is a systemic threat to economic cooperation between the two countries.

[...]

The differences between the two countries are on display for all to see. Take Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent interview with China Media Group, in which there was a misunderstanding over a question about the climate. After noting that Moscow and Beijing are—apparently—cooperating on renewable energy, the Chinese journalist asked what this cooperation meant for the future of humanity. Visibly irritated, Putin responded that when it came to sustainable development, there were more important issues than climate change, such as tackling poverty.

[...]

Unlike Moscow, Beijing has found a way to make renewables a pillar of its economy. The energy infrastructure being built by the Chinese means the country will need fewer and fewer supplies from Russia.

[...]

Even now, there are warning signs. Beijing’s intractability in negotiations over the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline is tied up with China’s green shift. The pipeline was originally planned to bring Russian gas to China’s northern regions—which have become leaders in renewable energy. For the moment, Power of Siberia 2 remains up in the air. There were some expectations it would be agreed when Putin visited China in October, but nothing was signed.

Ryssland och Kina har vitt skilda intressen. Kina håller på att bli Rysslands största konkurrent på energimarknaden. Putin säljer det rep som hänger honom!

Som sagt, Putin säljer det rep som hänger honom. Lenin vänder sig nog i graven. Polens nye utrikesminister är inne på samma linje:

Europe’s Real Test Is Yet to Come: Will the Continent Ever Get Serious About Its Own Security?

China is happy to give Putin political and propaganda support while denying Moscow the military supplies it craves. It is a safe bet that Russian capabilities in East Asia, which were never sufficient to take on China, have deteriorated further. China, by contrast, is arming itself at a breakneck speed, including in the nuclear sphere, where Beijing must reach parity with Moscow and Washington to credibly deter the United States from defending Taiwan.

Military capabilities built for one scenario can usually be used in others. The Chinese government has kept quiet about it, but Radio France International reported in March 2023 that China’s Ministry of Natural Resources had issued new guidelines for maps, requiring the addition of old Chinese names alongside Russian geographical names in eight places along the Russian-Chinese border, including Vladivostok, which should now be referred to as Haishenwai. As if bowing to Beijing, Moscow has said it will open the port of Vladivostok to Chinese transit trade for the first time in 163 years. Russia gained control of the bay on which it built that port and the rest of Outer Manchuria in 1860 during the Second Opium War while threatening to torch Beijing. Xi might well conclude that Chinese honor could more easily be restored—and his place in history assured—by recovering a province lost to Russia than by risking a world war over Taiwan.

[...]

This time, it could be Russian weakness, not strength, that is exposed. Putin’s reckless decision to invade Ukraine has revealed Russia to be much weaker than many believed and accelerated the divergence between Moscow’s and Beijing’s trajectories as world powers. China is already taking Russia’s discounted energy and raw materials. If Russia continues to decline at the present rate, Beijing may eventually buy Moscow’s gold reserves and ultimately make claims on its land. Putin thought he would gain Kyiv but might instead lose Vladivostok. As the former U.S. national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski used to say, Russia can choose to be an ally of the West or a vassal of China. Putin chose not what was good for Russia but what was good for him and would most likely preserve his dictatorial power. Many patriotic Russians, and not just those in exile, already anticipate disaster at the hands of China. A post-Putin Russia might reverse his disastrous course. But as long as he remains at the helm, Russia will remain a problem instead of part of the solution.

Nöjer sig Xi med Vladivostok?

Nä, men de prioriterar annat, tydligen:

Russian Urals crude oil prices are currently around the G7 cap of $60 per barrel

Russian Urals crude oil prices are currently around the G7 cap of $60 per barrel, after hitting a five-month low of $56 on December 12th. Geopolitical tensions have escalated after Iran sent a warship to the Red Sea following the US Navy's destruction of three Houthi boats. This situation is concerning as approximately 1.7 million barrels per day of Russia's crude exports pass through the Red Sea, where Houthi rebels in Yemen have been attacking merchant vessels more frequently. In addition, Russia has announced further oil export cuts, reducing output by 500,000 barrels per day below the May-June average during Q1 2024. To achieve the reduced output, Russia plans to decrease crude shipments by 300,000 barrels per day and cut refined products accordingly. In 2023, the price of Russia's flagship Urals crude saw a 6.1% increase.

Ja, både indiska raffinaderier och emiratiska banker tar hänsyn till amerikanska sanktioner. Iraniseringen av Ryssland fortsätter.

Fascisterna Netanyahu och Bezalel Smotrich (finansminister) verkar jobba på samma "lösning" för Gaza som fascisten Putin jobbar på för de ockuperade territorierna i östra och södra Ukraina:

[...]

Och banditen Erdogan skär pipor i vassen:

Fascisten Itamar Ben-Gvir och hans följe har en annan lösning - lika­så ett verktyg från Putins verktygslåda:

Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu said Sunday that one of Israel’s options in the war against Hamas could be to drop a nuclear bomb on the Gaza Strip, in comments that were quickly disavowed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who also suspended the minister from cabinet meetings.

Eliyahu, a member of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party, was speaking in an answer to a question in a radio interview.

[...]

He also backed retaking the Strip and rebuilding the Israeli settlements that existed there before Israel withdrew from the area unilaterally in 2005, and when asked about the fate of the Palestinian population, he said: “They can go to Ireland or deserts; the monsters in Gaza should find a solution by themselves.”

Igår likviderade underrättelsetjänsten Mossad en Hamastopp i Libanons huvudstad Beirut. Erdogan utnyttjar detta tillfälle till att göra nya utrensningar i Turkiet.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

PS. Var vänlig ge i att dra in elbilar i den här tråden också! Det räcker med Kina-propagandan i andra trådar.

Det är knappast någon överdrift - och speciellt inte kinesisk propaganda - att Kinas gröna omställning utgör ett existentiellt hot mot Ryssland:

Självklart är de egna åsikterna varken överdrifter eller kinesiskt propaganda. Det är skillnad på åsikt och insikt, tydligen. Någon betydelse för krigsutgången kommer det emellertid inte att ha.

Men köp en elbil, vetja, istället för att hålla på och spekulera i den här tråden. Själv håller jag mig till tvåhjuligt, men överväger att uppgradera i vår och bryta beroendet av den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Europe’s Real Test Is Yet to Come: Will the Continent Ever Get Serious About Its Own Security?

Sikorskys geopolitixska spekulationer är inte så intressanta. Däremot - och det har skrivits mycket om det redan - måste Europa ta sitt eget försvar på betydligt större allvar. Why European defense is at its crossroad
Även Finlands avgående president Niinistö var inne på samma tema i sitt nyårstal

Hittills har det varit mycket snack och lite(n) verkstad. Speciellt gäller det luftförsvaret - ett kraftigt försummat område.
What’s old is new again: How to boost NATO’s air defenses in Europe

Där har - enligt min mening - Olaf Scholz ESSI-initiativ skapat mer splittring än samförstånd.

Det här kommer att kosta (massor av) pengar och inte vara populärt bland väljarna. Och göda fascisterna i AfD, le Pen och Wilders.

Radoslav "Radek" Sikorski är - intressant nog - en gammal PiS-are som bytt sida: Who’s who in Poland’s new government

Radosław Sikorski, 60, foreign minister (PO/KO)
In recent years, PiS has appointed low-profile figures as foreign minister, with foreign policy often effectively run out of the prime minister’s office or party headquarters.

But Sikorski is a genuine heavyweight: experienced, well connected, an Oxford-educated fluent English speaker. He served in the same role for seven years in Tusk’s last government and as defence minister during a PiS-led government in 2005-7 (though is now an ardent opponent of his former party).

Like Tusk, Sikorski will undoubtedly mend fences with Poland’s European partners. But there are questions over relations with the US. PiS developed close ties with Washington under both Trump and Biden.

By contrast, in 2014 secret recordings emerged of Sikorski – then foreign minister – saying that “the Polish-American alliance is worthless” and indeed “harmful because it gives Poland a false sense of security”. He also made vulgar remarks likening Poland’s approach to “giving the Americans a [snusk]”.

Last year, he was widely criticised for a tweet in which he suggested that the US was responsible for blowing up the Nord Stream gas pipeline. A printout of his post ending up being waved at the UN by Russia’s ambassador.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Polens nye utrikesminister är inne på samma linje:

Det mest intressanta här är hur länge Tusk-regeringen står emot president Dudas attacker och försök att tvinga den över budgetstupet 31/1.

Tusk-regeringen har bråttom med att städa upp efter PiS-arnas vanstyre, risken är att man själv förfaller till tveksamma metoder:
Right aims, wrong methods: public media takeover shows dangers for new Polish government

Katolska kyrkan jobbar som vanligt med undergrävande verksamhet. Tur att påven inte är polack, i varje fall: Polish bishop warns of return to “dark times of communism” under new government

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Lenin vänder sig nog i graven.

Det tror jag knappast. Han verka ligga där han ligger: https://www.gettyimages.se/fotografier/leninmausoleet

Och minnesmärkena över Stalins terror rensas bort: Minnesmärken över Stalins offer rensas bort

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Nä, men de prioriterar annat, tydligen:

Citaförfalskning, som vanligt. Såhär skrev jag:

Nä, men de prioriterar annat, tydligen: Russia, India closer to joint military equipment production

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Trump försöker skriva om historien:[
Trump says Civil War ‘could have been negotiated (CNN)
Trump says Civil War ‘could have been negotiated.’ Historians disagree. (Washington Post)

“The Civil War was so fascinating, so horrible,” Trump said. “So many mistakes were made. See, there was something I think could have been negotiated, to be honest with you. I think you could have negotiated that. All the people died, so many people died. You know, that was the disaster.”

Trump went on to describe the Civil War as “vicious” and suggested that “Abraham Lincoln, of course, if he negotiated it, you probably wouldn’t even know who Abraham Lincoln was.”
[......... ]

Trump’s comments about the Civil War came before he repeated an often-made claim that his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin could have prevented the war in Ukraine.

Det är ganska lätt att inse hur en Trump-förhandlad "fred" i Ukraina skulle se ut.

The Donald nedlät sig förstås inte att kommentera kritiken, utan skickade fram sin underhuggare Steven Cheung:

“These ‘historians’ are nothing more than liberal, Democrat donors who are suffering with Trump Derangement Syndrome,” Cheung said in a statement. “The fact is that President Trump has done more to help move this country forward than any of these elitists who do nothing more than go on cable news and spew their hatred.”

Den typen av retorik känner man igen från både för hundra år sedan, och i nutid. "Vänsterliberala klägget" var ordet.

[Enceladus]

Putin’s Unsustainable Spending Spree: How the War in Ukraine Will Overheat the Russian Economy

Rather than signaling economic health, however, these figures are symptomatic of overheating. The Russian economy’s problems, in fact, are such that Putin is facing an impossible trilemma. His challenges are threefold: he must fund his ongoing war against Ukraine, maintain his populace’s living standards, and safeguard macroeconomic stability. Achieving the first and second goals will require higher spending, which will fuel inflation and thus prevent the achievement of the third goal. High oil and gas revenues, adept financial management by the Russian authorities, and lax enforcement of Western restrictions have all played their part in Russia’s economic growth, but they mask growing imbalances in the economy.

[...]

As the Russian economy has become more focused on the war, Russians have also become unsustainably reliant on war-related payments. The government refuses to curtail subsidized mortgages because of a powerful lobby of property developers. Although the terms have been slightly tightened, and the down payment raised by five percent, the program has remained. The arguments from the central bank that these loans create an additional inflation pressure, cementing inequality and distorting property prices, have been ignored by the Kremlin. These subsidized loans are paid for by all income categories, meaning that working-class taxpayers are subsidizing middle-class mortgages. More than 60 percent of loans are issued to people who will spend more than half their income repaying them. Increasingly, the loan programs are being accessed by recipients of war-related payments. If the war ended, it would become extremely difficult for them to service their loans, especially in the face of rising prices.

[...]

Inflation is also fast becoming a problem. Russia’s inflation rate has already surpassed seven percent, forcing the Bank of Russia to maintain interest rates at 16 percent. Despite these high interest rates, businesses and households continue to borrow, indicating high inflation expectations. This means that the key rate will not return to single digits any time soon. This has prompted industrial giants such as AvtoVAZ and Russian Railways to seek subsidies to service their corporate debt. The Russian energy company Rosneft’s CEO, Igor Sechin, has gone further, urging Putin to influence the independent central bank’s decisions. He has not done so. Despite the attacks from oligarchs, the government, and even Putin’s economic aide Maxim Oreshkin, the central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina has maintained her independence in monetary policy decision-making. For the Kremlin, high interest rates constitute an image problem, undermining Putin’s narrative that the Russian economy is stable. A healthy economy, after all, does not need a double-digit key rate.

Den ryska ekonomin har stora problem som bara kommer att öka med tiden. Putin kan dock inte stanna tiden. Verkligheten kommer ikapp förr eller senare.

U.S. crude oil falls 4% as Saudi price cut heightens global demand worries

U.S. crude exports also rose by more than 1 million barrels per day to 5.2 million barrels per day in the same period. Saudi Arabia is slashing prices to stop customers from buying U.S. crude as well as to undercut cheap Iranian and Russian barrels, said Bob Yawger, energy futures strategist at Mizuho.

“Obviously they’re hitting the panic button a little,” Yawger said of Riyadh. The question is what happens if the Saudi strategy does not work, he said.

“You’re getting closer and closer to a 2020 situation here where they try to claw back market share by cutting everything to bare bones minimum and sparking a price war,” Yawger said.

Dessutom kan Saudiarabien vara på väg att inleda ett nytt priskrig på olja. USA pumpar olja till rekordnivåer medan Kina spottar ur sig rekordmånga elbilar.

Russians Rage Against Putin's Officials Amid Cold Snap: 'We're Freezing!'

At least 21,000 residents of around 180 high-rise buildings in the city of Podolsk, around 30 miles south of central Moscow, were left freezing after the power was knocked out in their homes when a heating main burst at the Klimovsk Specialized Ammunition Plant on Thursday January 4, Russian media reported.

[...]

Moscow regional authorities have blamed utility problems on abnormal frosts with the average daily temperature up to -15 C degrees (5 F) below normal. There were also heating problems which started on January 2 in buildings in nearby towns, including Khimki, Solnechnogorsk, Balashikha and Lyubertsy.

[...]

Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs Anton Gerashchenko wrote about the heating problems afflicting Moscow on X. "While Russian authorities and propagandists were making up horror stories about Europe freezing without Russian gas, they completely forgot about their own citizens," he wrote on Sunday.

Samtidigt fryser tiotusentals ryssar. Däremot har Newsweek misslyckats med konverteringen. -15 °C är förvisso 5 °F, men 15 °C kallare är 27 °F kallare.

Russian major general killed in Ukraine after triggering mine

Senior Russian Military Officer Killed in Ukraine: An Increasing Toll on Leadership

Adding to the growing list of high-ranking casualties in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Colonel Arman Ospanov, a senior officer in the Russian military, has reportedly been killed. Ospanov, head of the armoured service of the Russian Airborne Forces, was in the occupied territories of Ukraine with a mission to boost troop morale when he met his untimely demise.

[...]

Alongside Ospanov’s tragic end, reports have also mentioned the death of Sergeant Alexander Krasnov from the same division. These deaths further emphasize the increasing toll on Russian military leadership as the war in Ukraine continues unabated.

The conflict has witnessed the death of an alarmingly significant number of high-ranking Russian officers, including Major General Vladimir Zavadsky and several others in key positions. The exact number of Russian military casualties remains unverified, with some sources estimating the figure to be over 365,000 since the invasion began. These losses underscore the heavy toll on Russian military leadership, potentially impacting their capabilities in the ongoing conflict.

Utnötningen av ryska officerare fortsätter. Enligt uppgifter på sociala medier dödades Ospanov nära Kozachi Laheri på den ockuperade sidan av floden Dnipro.

[Enceladus]

How Russia saved the 2023 budget

On paper, the deficit in last year’s budget was 2.1%, while this year’s deficit is predicted to come in at 1.8% in the Explanatory Note attached to the new budget law. Even if the actual deficit is closer to 1% as Putin suggested, the underlying trend is still negative. The reason is that some of 2023 spending was already built into the 2022 budget.

2022 was an historically profitable year for Russia, as Moscow benefitted from high energy prices, which in turn were boosted by Russia’s own aggression — economics is often not fair. Russia used the comfortable budget situation to prepare. In 2022, the government allowed small- and medium-sized companies to defer their social security contributions, meaning less revenue for the state in 2022 and more in 2023 and 2024. In addition, the Finance Ministry made a prepayment to the «Social Fund of Russia» (pensions and social transfers) in December 2022, effectively transferring 1% of GDP from the 2022 windfall to 2023.

This is why the Finance Ministry’s itself estimates the «true deficit» (without prepayments and other distorting factors) for 2022 at 0.7% of GDP and the «true deficit» for 2023 at 2.7%. These numbers are a better representation of the Russian government’s ability to collect taxes and the spending requirements of the war and show that the situation clearly worsened in 2023.

Janis Kluge är en känd tysk expert på rysk ekonomi. Statsbudgeten går utför, och det enligt ryska myndigheter. De verkliga siffrorna är förstås ännu värre.

Russia’s energy revenues fall by almost a quarter in 2023

Russia’s income from oil and gas fell by 24 per cent last year, according to data published on Thursday by the finance ministry.

As spending reached a record high of Rbs32.4tn ($360.7bn) in 2023, the Russian budget deficit rose for the second year in a row to more than 1.9 per cent of GDP. That exceeds forecasts from President Vladimir Putin, who said in December that the deficit would reach 1.5 per cent of GDP.

Although below the record levels of 2021 and 2022, energy revenues reached Rbs8.8tn in 2023 despite Western restrictions on Russian exports. However that was partly because of the weakness of the rouble, which lost about 30 per cent of its value in the year.

Saldot i Rysslands budget för 2023 blev ett underskott på drygt 1,9 procent av BNP, vilket Putin underskattade. Det verkliga underskottet är förstås ännu större:

New data on Russia's #budget in 2023: The official estimate for the deficit today is 1.9% of GDP. In late December Putin said the deficit could be below 1.5% of GDP, in October Putin predicted 1% of GDP.

It's important to keep in mind that the 2022 deficit is actually about 1%, and the 2023 deficit is actually about 3% when you factor in a large Social Security prepayment in December 2022. Accordingly, actual expenditures are 29.5 trillion in 2022 and 34 trillion in 2023.

Finansdepartementet övergår från köp till försäljning av utländsk valuta under de kommande veckorna på grund av oväntat låga intäkter. Nu torskar huthierna!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Nu torskar huthierna!

Jag skulle nog vara försiktig med att använda sådana där floskler. Det här är exakt vad Houthierna och deras uppbackare den iranska mördarregimen vill. Nämligen att skapa fler fronter i Mellanöstern och dra in USA i dessa:

A bit more from senior Houthi Abdulsalam Jahaf, who has offered some more commentary on the US and UK-led strikes in Yemen.

"We have longed to confront America for more than 20 years," he said.

"This is the holy jihad, and this is the decisive historical stage with which God honoured us to humiliate America, Britain and Israel."

Ian Ralby, a maritime security analyst, told Sky News earlier that the Houthis were thrilled with the attention of late.

"They fought a [civil] war for ten years [in Yemen] and never had any attention - they're loving what they're getting now," he said.

Och de är ganska välbeväpnade: The Anti-Ship Missile Arsenal Houthis Are Firing Into The Red Sea (The WarZone)

Och The WarZone ger också en bra bakgrundsanalys: Why Hasn’t The U.S. Struck Back After Red Sea Anti-Ship Attacks?

Och Vladimir Vladimirovitj Putin gnuggar händerna.

[Enceladus]

Och Vladimir Vladimirovitj Putin gnuggar händerna.

Houthis mistakenly target tanker carrying Russian oil - Ambrey report

Houthi militants mistakenly targeted a tanker carrying Russian oil in a missile attack on Friday off Yemen, British maritime security firm Ambrey said.

[...]

Ambrey said: "This was the second tanker mistakenly targeted by the Houthis whilst carrying Russian oil."

[...]

The United States and Britain carried out strikes from the air and sea against Houthi military targets in Yemen overnight. Russia, an ally of Iran and a partner of key Arab powers, denounced the strikes and called for an urgent meeting of the U.N. Security Council.

Problemet är att monster inte sällan vänder sig mot sin skapare. Inte minst Putin borde veta bättre efter förra sommaren!

Tesla, Volvo Car pause output as Red Sea shipping crisis deepens

Automakers Tesla (TSLA.O) and Geely-owned Volvo Car (VOLCARb.ST) said they were suspending some production in Europe due to a shortage of components, the first clear sign that attacks on shipping in the Red Sea are hitting manufacturers in the region.

[...]

Container shipping rates jumped further this week as concerns grew that vessels carrying everything from clothes to phones and car batteries will have to avoid the Suez Canal, the fastest route between Asia and Europe, for longer than expected.

The biggest supply chain upheaval since the COVID-19 pandemic risks derailing the global economic recovery, while higher freight and oil prices could reignite inflation. The canal accounts for about 12% of global container traffic.

[...]

Adding to the logistical headaches hampering trade, low water levels due to drought have reduced crossings of the Panama Canal, another key maritime trade route.

Tesla och Volvo är två av Kinas inkörsportar till Europa. Vad säger Xi om detta, eller för den delen Putinkramaren Musk? Har Egypten råd att förlora intäkterna?

Jag skulle nog vara försiktig med att använda sådana där floskler. Det här är exakt vad Houthierna och deras uppbackare den iranska mördarregimen vill.

Igår natt avfyrades drygt 80 Tomahawk-missiler, mer än den årliga produktionen, och inatt fortsätter attackerna. Rebellerna har förmodligen lidit stora skador:

The latest attack showed that the Biden administration would not wait for retaliation to press ahead with its campaign against the Houthis. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said his goal is to restore shipping through a vital trade waterway after the group’s earlier attacks forced many companies to route their ships around Africa.

[...]

Of the more than 100 precision-guided weapons fired at Houthi targets earlier, more than 80 were Tomahawk missiles, according to two American defense officials, who asked not to be identified discussing details that haven’t been widely released.

[...]

“Neither side is looking to have an all-out war, and they are badly mismatched,” Jon Alterman, a senior vice president at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, wrote in a note of the US and Iran. “But that is not to say that the Houthis will stop attacking shipping, or that the United States will stop attacking the Houthis.”

[Enceladus]

Fantomsmärtorna över Storungerns undergång i Trianonfreden 1920 går visst aldrig över. Putin kan vara glad över at han har en så pålitlig vän i Budapest. Europas patrioter, som Giorgia Meloni, Italiens PM, säger:

“We are not monsters, the people understand that. Long live Vox (de spanska högerextremisterna, min anm.), long live Spain, long live Italy, long live Europe patriots,″ Meloni said. “Only by winning in our countries can Europe become a political giant that we want, and not a bureaucratic giant.”

Meloni Pushes Hungary’s Orban to Unlock Ukraine Aid in Back-Channel Talks

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is seeking to convince Hungarian Premier Viktor Orban to lift his opposition to the European Union’s support for Ukraine and to improve relations with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

[...]

Meloni is also pushing Orban to shift his approach on Ukraine’s EU membership aspirations and to reset relations with Kyiv as conditions for joining the ECR, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Discussions have taken place at various levels and no decision has been taken.

[...]

Even though the EU will try to convince Hungary to lift its veto of the Ukraine financing at the next month’s summit, the leaders are also eying alternatives, which could include an agreement at 26 without Budapest. Hungary said on Wednesday during the meeting that it wants a yearly review mechanism that would need to approve the disbursals by unanimity, according to another person familiar with those talks.

Meloni försöker rädda Orban från sin isolering. Han verkar nappa på betet. Dessutom går det inte så bra för Ungerns ekonomi. Orban behöver EU-pengarna:

The commission is also open to annual audits of the aid and the introduction of an “emergency brake” clause, whereby any country could put serious concerns about Ukraine payments up for discussion at a summit of EU leaders. It would not, however, give Hungary an additional opportunity to veto funding.

Asked if this would be sufficient for Orbán to drop his veto, a senior Hungarian official said: “Still uncertain, but I say most probably yes.”

The Hungarians “are in a negotiating mood”, said a person briefed on the discussions. Brussels unlocked €10bn of EU funding for Hungary in December that was previously frozen due to rule of law concerns, a few weeks after it approved a separate €900mn payout to the country.

Speaker Johnson Defies Hardline Ouster Threat on Spending Deal

US House Speaker Mike Johnson refused Friday to cave to pressure from hardline Republicans, empowering him to work with Democrats to avoid a shutdown, fund Ukraine and strike a border compromise — unless his rebellious right flank brings him down first.

[...]

Some moderate Republicans, many of whom represent areas President Joe Biden carried in 2020 and are crucial to the GOP maintaining its narrow House majority, met with Johnson before his announcement and urged him to stick with the deal.

[...]

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a hardliner from Georgia, said she would vote to oust Johnson over Ukraine funding, which she says shouldn’t be a prerequisite for strong action on border security. Ukraine spending is currently separate from the spending deal, but some lawmakers think it ultimately will be tied to a full-year funding package.

Även på andra sidan Atlanten verkar Ukraina ha funnit en oväntad allierad, nämligen representanthusets talman - en högerextrem kreationist!