Militär teknik och Ukrainakriget

[Enceladus]

Sedan har ju ryssarna en del andra tråkiga (halv)strategiska vapen som 3M22 Tsirkon som möjligen kan vara aktuellt för insats i Ukraina. Tsirkon är ett "äkta" hypersoniskt vapen som använder supersonisk ramjetdrift. En supersonisk ramjetmotor (scramjet) utmärks dels av att den saknar kompressor och turbin (behövs inte i höga farter) och att gasflödet genom motorn sker helt och hållet i överljudshastighet.

Russia's ‘Zircon’ hypersonic super weapon has failed in Ukraine. Putin is egg-faced again

A Ukrainian forensic research bureau says that Russia used its “Zircon” hypersonic super-weapon to strike Kyiv last week. The facts of the incident are still being established but indications suggest a new humiliation for Vladimir Putin, as another of his supposedly invincible weapons seems to have been shot down by Ukrainian air defences.

[...]

The suggestion then is that the Ukrainian defenders didn’t detect any incoming missile travelling faster than say Mach 3. This would lead them to conclude that no hypersonic weapons were in play – “hypersonic” is generally taken to mean faster than Mach 5. The air defences did however warn of a “high velocity missile” approaching the city at 0746 local time on the 7th, suggesting a supersonic weapon.

[...]

Russia has made various statements about the Zircon. Most famously Vladimir Putin included it in his list of six Russian “super weapons” in 2018, ones which he stated were impossible for America to intercept or defeat. Official footage has supposedly showed various Zircon test firings: in at least some cases these later turned out to be other, older weapons, casting some doubt even on the existence of Zircon, or its existence as described.

Ryssland påstås ha använt det hypersoniska vapnet Tsirkon i Ukraina. I så fall är det ett utmärkt tillfälle att studera vapnet och utveckla motåtgärder. Men det ryska undervapnet visar sig vara ännu en besvikelse. Då ger nog Kh-22 mer valuta för pengarna. The War Zone analyserar förstås användningen av vapnet.

Av planschen ovan att döma kan det här vara en förstudie till vad som sedan blev Magura 5:

Intelligence officers demonstrate use of Magura drones in sinking of Tsezar Kunikov – video

The large Russian landing ship Tsezar Kunikov was sunk with the help of Magura V5 maritime drones, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine reported.

[...]

"As a result, large holes were blown in the port side and the Tsezar Kunikov began to sink. It is symbolic that the Russian officer after whom the ship was named was killed exactly 81 years ago [on February 14]. The occupiers' search and rescue operation was unsuccessful. Glory to Ukraine!" the intelligence emphasised.

[...]

At the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Tsezar Kunikov was docked in the Russian-occupied port city of Berdiansk and sustained damage when Ukrainian forces sank the Saratov landing ship in March 2022.

Ukraina sänker ännu ett ryskt fartyg i Svarta havet. Caesar Kunikov var ett drygt 100 meter långt landstigningsfartyg. Även denna gång användes Magura V5.

Såhär hette det för mer än ett år sedan:

Russia reveals HIMARS wreckage in Ukraine: GLSDBs confirmed

Keen observers may easily recognize this as the tail of the GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bomb [SDB]. This bomb is a part of the GLSDB, which also includes a jet engine taken from the M26 unguided missile. Dismissing the possibility that Ukraine spontaneously acquired SDB bombs, the remaining logical conclusion is that we’re looking at the GLSDB.

But there’s more to the story – this seems to be the first successful use of GLSDB in combat by Ukraine’s military forces, marking the inaugural instance of this system’s application in a real-world conflict scenario. Notably, this account aligns with projections that Ukraine’s forces will be the first operator of the GLSDB. As per the USAI program’s agenda set by the US government, Ukraine was to start receiving shipments of this system by the first quarter of 2024.

I teorin är det ingen skillnad mellan teori och praktik. I praktiken är det skillnad.

[Enceladus]

I teorin är det ingen skillnad mellan teori och praktik. I praktiken är det skillnad.

Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb Makes Combat Debut In Ukraine

Until now, there has been no confirmation from either Ukrainian or Russian military officials that the GLSDB has been used in combat. The only other possibility is that Ukraine is now air-launching SDBs, but we have no indication of that being the case, although it is possible.

The timing of GLSDB's arrival is highly plausible, with reports in January of this year stating that the GLSDB could be in action with Ukrainian forces by the end of that same month. Subsequent reports claimed its entry into service was imminent.

[...]

As well as the potential availability of constituent parts, the GLSDB also works out cheaper than a GMLRS round. While a single GBU-39/B costs around $50,000, a GMLRS round comes with a price tag of approximately $100,000.

The War Zone nämner att det teoretiskt skulle kunna ha vara glidbomben GBU-39/B, men det mesta talar för GLSDB. Har Ukraina redan använt vapnet förr?

Alarm Raised Over Destabilizing New Russian Threat In Space: Reports

The Chairman of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee has turned heads with a public plea for President Joe Biden's administration to declassify information related to an unspecified "national security threat" that has been described as "serious" and "destabilizing." Multiple reports now say the matter has to do with raw intelligence on a Russian space-related capability of some kind, although we cannot independently confirm that at this time.

Representative Mike Turner, an Ohio Republican who currently chairs the House Intelligence Committee, ignited something of a firestorm over this still nebulous issue with a brief and cryptic statement earlier today.

[...]

Subsequent media reports, citing unnamed sources, have linked the capability to Russia and indicated that it is space-related in some way. ABC News has explicitly reported that the intelligence in question has to do with Russia considering deploying nuclear weapons in space as anti-satellite weapons.

Källor med insyn hävdar att Ryssland vill placera kärnvapen i rymden, vilket skulle bryta mot rymdfördraget. Att Ryssland struntar i folkrätten torde vara givet:

About 100,000 of the 430,000 people who lived in the city before the war remained. Ukrainian officials say 25,000 died during the two-month siege, although some estimates suggest the figure could be three times higher. Hundreds of thousands fled to Russia, to other parts of Ukraine, or into Europe.

The Russian government falsely claims the destruction of Mariupol was the work of “Ukrainian Nazis”. But human rights groups have documented Russia’s war crimes. The bombing of a theatre, a key shelter, killed hundreds. A strike on a maternity ward left pregnant women in the rubble. With investigators unable to access the city, and with Moscow racing to plaster over the horrors of the war, it’s feared more Russian atrocities may remain undiscovered. “Russia is trying to destroy all evidence of its war crimes,” says Dmytro Lubinets, Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights.

[...]

Watching from afar, exiled Ukrainian civil servants were devastated. The Russian authorities boasting about new schools and kindergartens were putting the finishing touches to facilities constructed by the Ukrainians. The new buses and trams, with “Mariupol and St Petersburg, twin cities” on the side, were rebranded Ukrainian models bought just before the war. “It’s our tram, it’s even with our registration number,” says Mykyta Biriukov, Mariupol’s former deputy director of transport.

Vidare är ryssarna duktiga på att sprida desinformation. Dessvärre tycks Mike Turners egna parti vara särskilt mottagligt för detta. Men nu hänger Johnson löst.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Sedan har ju ryssarna en del andra tråkiga (halv)strategiska vapen som 3M22 Tsirkon som möjligen kan vara aktuellt för insats i Ukraina. Tsirkon är ett "äkta" hypersoniskt vapen som använder supersonisk ramjetdrift. En supersonisk ramjetmotor (scramjet) utmärks dels av att den saknar kompressor och turbin (behövs inte i höga farter) och att gasflödet genom motorn sker helt och hållet i överljudshastighet.

Russia's ‘Zircon’ hypersonic super weapon has failed in Ukraine. Putin is egg-faced again

A Ukrainian forensic research bureau says that Russia used its “Zircon” hypersonic super-weapon to strike Kyiv last week. The facts of the incident are still being established but indications suggest a new humiliation for Vladimir Putin, as another of his supposedly invincible weapons seems to have been shot down by Ukrainian air defences.

[...]

The suggestion then is that the Ukrainian defenders didn’t detect any incoming missile travelling faster than say Mach 3. This would lead them to conclude that no hypersonic weapons were in play – “hypersonic” is generally taken to mean faster than Mach 5. The air defences did however warn of a “high velocity missile” approaching the city at 0746 local time on the 7th, suggesting a supersonic weapon.

[...]

Russia has made various statements about the Zircon. Most famously Vladimir Putin included it in his list of six Russian “super weapons” in 2018, ones which he stated were impossible for America to intercept or defeat. Official footage has supposedly showed various Zircon test firings: in at least some cases these later turned out to be other, older weapons, casting some doubt even on the existence of Zircon, or its existence as described.

Ryssland påstås ha använt det hypersoniska vapnet Tsirkon i Ukraina. I så fall är det ett utmärkt tillfälle att studera vapnet och utveckla motåtgärder. Men det ryska undervapnet visar sig vara ännu en besvikelse. Då ger nog Kh-22 mer valuta för pengarna. The War Zone analyserar förstås användningen av vapnet.

Oavsett ev. prestanda har ju Putin och underhuggare hotat med detta vapen i många år. Vapnet är, som nästan alla andra ryska missiler, i huvudsak
tänkt som en kärnvapenbärare, med en laddning på uppskattningsvis 100-200 kiloton.

På senare tid har jag sett flera ryska propagandister hota speciellt UK, som man tror sig ha identifierat som en svag länk länk bland de västliga kärnvapenmakterna. Här kan man se ett exempel hur den ryska propagandan hotar och kärnvapenskräms:
64 hypersonic Zircon missiles with a nuclear warhead could permanently close the UK project

Upprinnelsen till detta verkar vara en del oansvariga skriverier i det brittiska högertidningen Daily Mails onlineupplaga:
Maps show devastating impact of America's new super-nuke on Russian capital: B61-13 'gravity bomb' has 24 times more power than the one dropped on Hiroshima

Minst lika oansvarigt som The Spectators och den tyske kristdemokraten Manfred Webers kärnvapensvammel: viewtopic.php?p=418052#p418052

Ett seriöst nyhetsmedium avhåller sig från kärnvapenskrammel - finns ingen anledning att bete sig som ryssarna.

[Enceladus]

Källor med insyn hävdar att Ryssland vill placera kärnvapen i rymden, vilket skulle bryta mot rymdfördraget. Att Ryssland struntar i folkrätten torde vara givet:

Threats In Space “Extremely Concerning”: Space Force Boss

Russia is assumed to have extensive additional anti-satellite and other space-related capabilities that remain classified. ABC News reported today, citing anonymous sources, that the aforementioned serious national security threat has to do with potential Russian plans to put nuclear weapons into orbit for possible anti-satellite use. Russia would be in violation of its commitments to The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 if it were to do this, but this would also be in line with years of President Vladimir Putin's regime rolling back its participation in international arms control agreements.

China has been amassing its own arsenal of anti-satellite capabilities. This includes ground-based anti-satellite interceptors and systems capable of reversible attacks similar to the ones that Russia has fielded. In 2021, now-retired Space Force Gen. David Thompson, then Vice Chief of Space Operations, said Russian and Chinese forces collectively were launching reversible attacks on U.S. satellites on a daily basis.

Vågar Putin verkligen sätta igång en ny rymdkapplöpning? Som bekant gör USA och Kina flest raketuppsändningar. Ryssland har en avlägsen tredjeplats. Den enda trösten är att Elon Musk dominerar rymdsektorn i USA, och hans energiföretag sitter i Kinas knä. Europa är pinsamt nog i paritet med Nordkorea och Iran.

Russia’s “Highly Concerning” Anti-Satellite Super Weapon: What Are The Possibilities?

The White House has now formally confirmed that a recently disclosed "serious national security threat" is indeed related to a new anti-satellite capability that Russia is developing. But what could this capability be and why would Russia be perusing it? Let's talk about some possibilities.

[...]

There are certainly many possible anti-satellite capabilities that could be nuclear-powered or nuclear-armed, or even potentially both, and many of the ideas trace their roots back to the 1960s. The U.S. Starfish Prime nuclear test in 1962 is often discussed as an example of the potential uses of nuclear weapons in the anti-satellite role.

More recently, in 2022, Chinese military-linked researchers published a study discussing a concept involving detonating nuclear warheads in orbit to create radiation fields powerful enough to destroy or at least damage large numbers of an adversary's satellites at once. Those nuclear detonations would have other effects, as well.

[...]

Why House Intelligence Committee Chairman Representative Mike Turner, an Ohio Republican, touched this all off publicly at all remains unclear. Representative Andy Ogles, a Republican from Tennessee, has now called for a formal inquiry into Turner's "reckless" behavior, alleging that it had to do in part with an attempt to drum up support for new military aid for Ukraine and the renewal of a controversial intelligence law. Deliberations around both of these issues have become a major impasse in the House. Kirby, for his part, denied the White House had been in any way involved in such a ploy.

En annan möjlighet är att så kallade hökar försöker överdriva hotet från Ryssland för att öka det amerikanska stödet till Ukraina. Rymden är inte Putins domän!

Ukraina saknar förmåga att själv producera tunga vapensystem och är inte annat än möjligen på sikt betjänt av att diverse papper undertecknas. Pengar och signerade kontrakt har som bekant ingen stridsförmåga.

Stoltenberg: Ukraine to receive 1 million drones from allies in 2024

Allies are planning to join forces and supply Ukraine with a million drones this year, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference in Brussels on Feb. 15 following a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting, according to a Kyiv Independent reporter.

Ukrainas allierade lovar att förse landet med en miljon drönare i år. Hur många granater motsvarar en drönare? Många trupper, fordon och depåer kan slås ut.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ukraina saknar förmåga att själv producera tunga vapensystem och är inte annat än möjligen på sikt betjänt av att diverse papper undertecknas. Pengar och signerade kontrakt har som bekant ingen stridsförmåga.

Stoltenberg: Ukraine to receive 1 million drones from allies in 2024

Allies are planning to join forces and supply Ukraine with a million drones this year, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference in Brussels on Feb. 15 following a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting, according to a Kyiv Independent reporter.

Ukrainas allierade lovar att förse landet med en miljon drönare i år. Hur många granater motsvarar en drönare? Många trupper, fordon och depåer kan slås ut.

Läser man i originalkällan: Press conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the meetings of NATO Ministers of Defence in Brussels

A group of Allies is coming together with the goal of delivering one million drones to Ukraine.

så ser man att det är ett ganska allmänt hållet löfte. Vi vet, på grundval av detta egentligen inte när, och vilka typer av vapen det kan röra sig om. Att, som i Enceladus-kollektivets propagandafloskler ovan, försöka sätta likhetstecken mellan artilleri och UAV-er är bedrägligt. UAV-er kan komplettera men inte ersätta artilleri.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Såhär hette det för mer än ett år sedan:

Russia reveals HIMARS wreckage in Ukraine: GLSDBs confirmed

Keen observers may easily recognize this as the tail of the GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bomb [SDB]. This bomb is a part of the GLSDB, which also includes a jet engine taken from the M26 unguided missile. Dismissing the possibility that Ukraine spontaneously acquired SDB bombs, the remaining logical conclusion is that we’re looking at the GLSDB.

But there’s more to the story – this seems to be the first successful use of GLSDB in combat by Ukraine’s military forces, marking the inaugural instance of this system’s application in a real-world conflict scenario. Notably, this account aligns with projections that Ukraine’s forces will be the first operator of the GLSDB. As per the USAI program’s agenda set by the US government, Ukraine was to start receiving shipments of this system by the first quarter of 2024.

I teorin är det ingen skillnad mellan teori och praktik. I praktiken är det skillnad.

Ånä, så lätt ska inte Enceladus-kollektivet komma undan. Kollektivet vidarebefordrade, helt i onödan nedanstående indiska putinism, och betecknade denna ryska propaganda dessutom som "en bra artikel (från den indiske putinisten Prakash Nandas flaggskepp EurAsian Times)

Much Slower Than HIMARS, Russia Says Shooting Down Long-Range GLSDB Rockets Should Not Be Very Hard

Andrey Marochko, a retired colonel of the LPR People’s Militia, told TASS that the ground-launched small-diameter bombs (GLSDB) have a low velocity and can quickly be shot down by air defense systems.

“GLSDB’s flight velocity is much lower than that of type M31 HIMSARS rockets Ukraine is now receiving. Hence, our air defense systems will have more time to target and hit them,” he said.

[...]

“Some sources say these rockets can fly to a distance of up to 150 kilometers, but there is no official verification. Many say the range is 130 kilometers,” he said.

He emphasized that since this ammunition won’t be given to the Ukrainian army until at least mid-autumn, reports of such shipments won’t alter the situation at the combat engagement line.

En bra artikel från indiska EurAsian Times om de utmaningar som Ukraina står inför med raketbomben GLSDB: låg fart, oklar räckvidd och lång leveranstid.

Detta fick jag ta hand om: viewtopic.php?p=411643#p411643
Vi citerar hela den avslutande textmassan i den refererade artikeln - finns ingen anledning att klippa:

According to Russia’s state-run media, GLSDB rockets can be easily destroyed by their air defense system.

Andrey Marochko, a retired colonel of the LPR People’s Militia, told TASS that the ground-launched small-diameter bombs (GLSDB) have a low velocity and can quickly be shot down by air defense systems.

“GLSDB’s flight velocity is much lower than that of type M31 HIMSARS rockets Ukraine is now receiving. Hence, our air defense systems will have more time to target and hit them,” he said.

Additionally, he notes that there are conflicting reports from open sources about the range of GLSDB rockets, given the absence of official data.
“Some sources say these rockets can fly to a distance of up to 150 kilometers, but there is no official verification. Many say the range is 130 kilometers,” he said.

He emphasized that since this ammunition won’t be given to the Ukrainian army until at least mid-autumn, reports of such shipments won’t alter the situation at the combat engagement line.

The Ukrainian army, he continued, is probably not going to be in the same situation it is right now. He contended that Russia’s effective offensive activities show that before the GLSDB weapons reach Kyiv’s troops, Moscow’s forces will drive the adversary back from the combat engagement line.

Det går inte att slingra sig ifrån detta med svammel om teori och praktik - en manöver värdig Sveriges spinkige utrikesminister.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

I teorin är det ingen skillnad mellan teori och praktik. I praktiken är det skillnad.

Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb Makes Combat Debut In Ukraine

Until now, there has been no confirmation from either Ukrainian or Russian military officials that the GLSDB has been used in combat. The only other possibility is that Ukraine is now air-launching SDBs, but we have no indication of that being the case, although it is possible.

The timing of GLSDB's arrival is highly plausible, with reports in January of this year stating that the GLSDB could be in action with Ukrainian forces by the end of that same month. Subsequent reports claimed its entry into service was imminent.

[...]

As well as the potential availability of constituent parts, the GLSDB also works out cheaper than a GMLRS round. While a single GBU-39/B costs around $50,000, a GMLRS round comes with a price tag of approximately $100,000.

The War Zone nämner att det teoretiskt skulle kunna ha vara glidbomben GBU-39/B, men det mesta talar för GLSDB.

Begreppet "glide bomb" är ett oprecist uttryck, som bör undvikas: viewtopic.php?p=417136#p417136

Det är helt uteslutet att det här skulle kunna vara fråga om flygplansburna GBU-39, eftersom det inte finns några belägg för att bombfästet BRU-61 skulle ha integrerats i någon av Ukrainas ålderdomliga sovjetiska flygplantyper.





I bilderna ovan ser vi F-16 resp. A-10, som bär GBU-39-bomber i BRU-61 bombfästen - fyra i varje.



F-16 kan alltså bära 8 bomber, medan A-10 hela 16! I den här konfigurationen blir vapnet en salvpjäs, något som är svårare att uppnå med den raketburna varianten GLSDB.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Uppges vara den första kända bilden på en F-16 målad med Ukrainas nationalitetsbeteckningar:



Möjligen fotograferad i Rumänien.

[Enceladus]

Tyskland trappar upp det militära stödet till Ukraina - både i år och på längre sikt:

BREAKING — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has just announced a new military aid package worth ~ 1.13 billion euros to #Ukraine!

It includes
— 18 PzH 2000 (2026 + 2027)
— 18 RCH 155 (2025, 2026, 2027)
— 120,000 shells 122 mm artillery ammunition (2024)
— 2 Skynex air defence systems (2025)
— 100 missiles for IRIS-T SLS (2024)

Ukraina får därmed sammanlagt 36 RCH 155-pjäser och 4 Skynex-system. Notera vidare ammunitionens kaliber, 122 mm. Kan det vara Indien eller Pakistan?

France to give Ukraine up to €3 billion in military aid in 2024 within new security deal

"Specific amounts of assistance have been determined; in 2024, France will provide up to €3 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Support will last for the ten years of the agreement," Zhovkva added.

Separately, the agreement establishes areas of military and security cooperation between Kyiv and Paris, such as joint weapon production, long-range weapons and combat aircraft procurement, and cyberspace cooperation.

[...]

To date, Ukraine has signed bilateral security agreements with the United Kingdom and Germany.

Även Frankrike trappar upp det militära stödet till Ukraina. Tiden är inte på Rysslands sida!

Russia Now Using Kh-69 Cruise Missiles In Ukraine: Reports

Russia has used another new precision-guided munition during the war in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian reports. The Kh-69 is widely associated with the Su-57 Felon new-generation fighter, although it could equally have been launched by a ‘legacy’ Russian tactical aircraft. Moreover, if it was used, the appearance of the Kh-69 would continue a spate of reports of new missiles being employed by Russia in Ukraine, including weapons of both domestic and foreign origin.

Men det hindrar inte Ryssland från att försöka...

Ukraina sänker ännu ett ryskt fartyg i Svarta havet. Caesar Kunikov var ett drygt 100 meter långt landstigningsfartyg. Även denna gång användes Magura V5.

Russian bloggers say fleet commander fired after latest Ukrainian ship attack

Russian military bloggers and a former Kremlin adviser said on Thursday that Moscow had fired the commander of its Black Sea fleet, a day after Ukraine said it had destroyed a large Russian ship.

[...]

Ukraine said on Wednesday it had destroyed a Russian landing warship, the Tsezar Kunikov, off the coast of Russian-annexed Crimea in a drone operation that breached the vessel's port side and caused it to sink. There was no comment from Russia.

The Ukrainian military says that it has "destroyed" 25 Russian military vessels and ships and one submarine during the war to date.

Det var verkligen på tiden. Viktor Sokolov gjorde Svartahavsflottan till ett skämt.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Tyskland trappar upp det militära stödet till Ukraina - både i år och på längre sikt:

BREAKING — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has just announced a new military aid package worth ~ 1.13 billion euros to #Ukraine!

It includes
— 18 PzH 2000 (2026 + 2027)
— 18 RCH 155 (2025, 2026, 2027)
— 120,000 shells 122 mm artillery ammunition (2024)
— 2 Skynex air defence systems (2025)
— 100 missiles for IRIS-T SLS (2024)

Ukraina får därmed sammanlagt 36 RCH 155-pjäser och 4 Skynex-system. Notera vidare ammunitionens kaliber, 122 mm. Kan det vara Indien eller Pakistan?

Alla bidrag är givetvis välkomna, men återigen för lite och för sent. Det mesta här ovan rör sig om nytillverkning. 122mm-granaterna (sovjetisk kaliber) anskaffas väl genom dammsugning av tredjepartsmarknaden. I princip gäller fortfarande det som skrevs här:
Demand and supply - The complexities of artillery and ammunition supply in the war in Ukraine

Betr. Iris-T så rör det sig tydligen om de korträckviddiga SLS-misslerna, som i Sverige kallas Rb 98. Även om de är mindre kapabla än de mer långräckviddiga SLM-missilerna är de rejält dyra, i storleksordningen 250.000 USD/styck. Att bekämpa Shahed-UAV-er med sådana är knappast kostnadseffektivt. 100 missiler skjuter Ukrainas luft försvar bort ganska snabbt, med den anfallsfrekvens ryssarna nu ansätter.

Iris-T-systemet beskrev jag här: viewtopic.php?p=412003#p412003



En svensk bandvagn 404 med Iris-T SLS-missiler.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

France to give Ukraine up to €3 billion in military aid in 2024 within new security deal

"Specific amounts of assistance have been determined; in 2024, France will provide up to €3 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Support will last for the ten years of the agreement," Zhovkva added.

Separately, the agreement establishes areas of military and security cooperation between Kyiv and Paris, such as joint weapon production, long-range weapons and combat aircraft procurement, and cyberspace cooperation.

[...]

To date, Ukraine has signed bilateral security agreements with the United Kingdom and Germany.

Även Frankrike trappar upp det militära stödet till Ukraina. Tiden är inte på Rysslands sida!

Uttalanden om krigets förlopp, liksom propagandafloskler som "Tiden är inte på Rysslands sida!" eller "klockan tickar för Putin" hör inte hemma i denna tråd!

Vi tar en fransk källa istället: France signs security pact with Ukraine, pledges 'up to €3 billion' in additional military aid

De framgår ju inte särskilt tydligt vad som kan komma att ingå i det franska stödet. 3 miljarder EUR kan låta mycket, men är ganska lite jämfört med det amerikanska stöd som frusit inne. Att ställa ut löften för de kommande 10 åren är inte så enkelt, vem som sitter i Élyséepalatset då vet vi ingenting om. I vilket utsträckning detta fördelar sig mellan finansiellt och militärt stöd vet vi inte heller.

Vad får man för 3 miljarder? Ett SAMP/T-system, som jämförelse, kostar 700-800 milj EUR, och Aster-30-missilerna 2 milj. EUR styck. Två SAMPT/T-system skulle alltså i runda slängar äta upp 2/3 av detta stöd, även om det inte går att skaka fram dessa utan nytillverkning (en sådan beställning borde har gjort för ett år sedan hos Eurosam).

Kryssningsmissilen KH-59 (som Enceladus-kollektivet viftar bort med "försöker") är en vidareutveckling av den äldre Kh-59. Vi ska titta på detta en annan dag. Under tiden kan den intresserade läsa här: https://molfar.com/en/blog/fabryka-rake ... ut-ukrainu

[Enceladus]

Andra, som t.ex. professor Oscar Jonsson vid försvarshögskolan, har andra uppfattningar: Små förändringar på den ukrainska stridsfronten i år

Ukrainian data casts doubt on precision of N.Korea missiles fired by Russia

Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin said a preliminary assessment found at least 24 recently fired ballistic missiles were from North Korea, and of the KN-23/24 series, the latest addition to an array of weapons used by Russia for airstrikes.

Speaking to reporters in Kyiv, Kostin said that of the 24 missiles fired, only two, aimed at an oil refinery and an airfield, had been "relatively accurate."

[...]

Any assessment in actual operations will also be useful for the North Koreans to improve their weapons and make them more accurate, Byrne said.

Muzyka tycks ha rätt om att de ryska missilerna tryter. Nordkoreanska missiler verkar ha samma problem som landets granater - knappast ett förstahandsval.

Vågar Putin verkligen sätta igång en ny rymdkapplöpning? Som bekant gör USA och Kina flest raketuppsändningar. Ryssland har en avlägsen tredjeplats. Den enda trösten är att Elon Musk dominerar rymdsektorn i USA, och hans energiföretag sitter i Kinas knä. Europa är pinsamt nog i paritet med Nordkorea och Iran.

Nordkorea och Iran må sakna Europas tekniska kapacitet, men båda länderna förefaller ha en betydligt högre ambitionsnivå - såväl i rymden som i Ukraina.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Andra, som t.ex. professor Oscar Jonsson vid försvarshögskolan, har andra uppfattningar: Små förändringar på den ukrainska stridsfronten i år

Ukrainian data casts doubt on precision of N.Korea missiles fired by Russia

Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin said a preliminary assessment found at least 24 recently fired ballistic missiles were from North Korea, and of the KN-23/24 series, the latest addition to an array of weapons used by Russia for airstrikes.

Speaking to reporters in Kyiv, Kostin said that of the 24 missiles fired, only two, aimed at an oil refinery and an airfield, had been "relatively accurate."

[...]

Any assessment in actual operations will also be useful for the North Koreans to improve their weapons and make them more accurate, Byrne said.

Muzyka tycks ha rätt om att de ryska missilerna tryter. Nordkoreanska missiler verkar ha samma problem som landets granater - knappast ett förstahandsval.

Det där propagandasnacket har vi bestämt hört förut.

Precis som Ian Williams noterar han att missilerna tryter.

ISW bekräftar att Ryssland har problem med att införskaffa missiler från Iran. Samtidigt tryter de ryska missilerna.

Det finns flera tecken på att de ryska missilerna äntligen tryter.

[Enceladus]

Det där propagandasnacket har vi bestämt hört förut.

Det är inte propagandasnack om det visade sig stämma. Konrad Muzykas siffror talar för sig själva. Bättre kan skribenten!

I så fall har Patriot lyckats eliminera tio ryska luftfarkoster under det gångna halvåret:

May 13, 2023 - shot down: one Su-34 bomber; one Su-35S fighter; two Mi-8MTPR-1 electronic warfare helicopters; one Mi-8 transport helicopter.

May 21, 2023 - shot down: Su-35S fighter

December 5, 2023 - shot down: Su-24M bomber

December 22, 2023 - shot down: three Su-34 bombers

Kyiv claims shoot-down two Su-34s and a Su-35 in Eastern Ukraine

Our headlines today, February 17th, bring grim news for the Russian Federation‘s Airborne Space Forces. They have lost not just one or two, but three aircraft – encompassing two frontline Su-34 bombers and a Su-35 fighter. This information was brought to light by the Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, pointing out the eastern direction where these adversary planes were downed.

It’s crucial to underscore that the specific configuration of these aircraft, combined with the simultaneity of their destruction, strongly suggests that they were part of a squadron equipped with UMPK kits. These kits can transform these bombers into gliders. According to the standard operating procedures for such scenarios, a pair of Su-34s would strike ground-level targets while being protected by a Su-35 fighter. The added advantage of the fighter is its capability to launch anti-radar missiles.

[...]

The ‘Roaming Patriot’ tactic essentially involves a mobile defense strategy. Instead of keeping the Patriot missile systems in fixed locations, they are moved around various locations. This mobility allows the system to be in unexpected places, creating an ‘ambush’ situation for enemy aircraft.

Rysslands glidbomber, utrustade med UMPK-modulen, sägs utgöra ett allt större problem. The Military Watch bekräftar förlusten av en Su-35S. Var det Patriot?

(Termen CSAR är en flådig förkortning för combat search and rescue.)

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det där propagandasnacket har vi bestämt hört förut.

Det är inte propagandasnack om det visade sig stämma. Konrad Muzykas siffror talar för sig själva. Bättre kan skribenten!

Det är väl snarast Enceladus-kollektivet som behöver skärpa sig. Statistik av denna typ (som i huvudsak baserar sig på ukrainska källor) kan bara visa antalet missilangrepp. Förhastade slutsatser om vad som faktiskt "tryter" har kollektivet kommit med många gånger tidigare, som jag visat ovan.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Obemannade mark(strids)fordon, UGV-er, har vi talat om tidigare: viewtopic.php?p=415358#p415358

Estniska Milrem tillverkar en UGV, THeMIS, en fordonplattform som kan användas i såväl beväpnade som beväpnade roller:

Ett antal av dessa fordon har övrlämnats till Ukrainas försvarsmakt. Fordonet finns också i bruk i 8 Nato-länder, bl.a.

Fordonet är, enligt en artikel i Defence News, så eftertraktat av ryssarna att de utlyst en belöning på 2 miljoner RUB för den som ser till att ett exemplar av detta faller i ryska händer:
Russia ups cash reward for capturing Estonian ground robot in Ukraine

The Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) first announced in 2022 that a reward of one million rubles, or roughly $11,000, would be given to any military personnel seizing a THeMIS vehicle, made by Edge Group subsidiary Milrem Robotics, in relatively intact condition.

On Feb. 15, the center’s director, Ruslan Pukhov, told state-owned news agency RIA Novosti that the award would be raised to two million rubles, or almost $22,000.
[..... ]

Manufacturer Milrem is aware of the bounty placed on its vehicles, but executives say they are unfazed about the prospect of technology theft.

“Seems like I don’t have to work again this week since CAST has doubled their reward for capturing a THeMIS in Ukraine for 2 million rubles, thus doing marketing for me,” Gert Hankewitz, director of communications at Milrem, posted on LinkedIn this week.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ett antal ukrainska piloter(12 st.) genomför fn. F-16-utbildning i USA: First Ukrainian F-16 pilots will complete training as soon as May

Tyvärr kommer det inte att bli mer USA-utbildning för ukrainska piloter där, så länge de republikanska fascisterna i Kongressen blockerar ytterligare anslag:

The pilots are already “flying F-16s solo every day,” but the requirements for these pilots have changed and training is taking a bit longer because the pilots need to be able to operate a “full range of missions” beyond wartime scenarios, Loh said.

However, the U.S. won’t be able to keep this effort going and train more pilots beyond the first cohort if Congress doesn’t authorize more funding.

“Training cost is tuition-based and that funding is allocated prior to student arrival. Students currently enrolled are not expected to be impacted by funding issues. If additional pilots are needing to be trained, additional funding will be necessary,” Hannigan said (Arizona National Guard spokesperson Capt. Erin Hannigan).

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Russia Now Using Kh-69 Cruise Missiles In Ukraine: Reports

Russia has used another new precision-guided munition during the war in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian reports. The Kh-69 is widely associated with the Su-57 Felon new-generation fighter, although it could equally have been launched by a ‘legacy’ Russian tactical aircraft. Moreover, if it was used, the appearance of the Kh-69 would continue a spate of reports of new missiles being employed by Russia in Ukraine, including weapons of both domestic and foreign origin.

Raduga Kh-69 verkar vara den senaste missiltypen från denna konstruktionsbyrå:


Den sägs vara utvecklad ut Kh-59-familjen av missiler, i huvudsak tidigare sjömålsmissiler med ganska rudimentära aerodynamiska bärplan. Som ex.vis
Kh-59MK2


Ryssarna verkar ha oreda i sina modellbeteckningar, eftersom denna missil, som ju avviker en hel del från ovanstående, har samma typbeteckning:


Kh-69 kan ev. jämföras med amerikanska AGM-158 JASSM:


Om Kh-69 presterar bättre än Kh-101, som ryssarna använt ganska flitigt, återstår att se.

[Enceladus]

450.000 granater till salu? För omgående leverans? Låter sensationellt.

[...]

Erdogan och Turkiet är som de är. De vet man aldrig var man har. Ena dagen säljer de, andra dagen inte. Rena basaren, faktiskt.

Czech President says Czechia found way to get 800,000 shells for Ukraine

"So far, we have found half a million 155mm shells and 300,000 122mm shells, which we can ship [to Ukraine] in a few weeks provided we have the funding. We will address our partners in the United States, Germany, Sweden, etc., for such assistance," he said.

Nä, 800 000 granater. Dessvärre verkar förslaget blockeras av Frankrike, Grekland och Cypern - som väntat. Tyskland kan dock redan ha köpt en del av detta.

Dessutom är det inte fråga om någon "fabrik". Som framgår av citatet är det fråga om "maintenance and repair of vehicles transferred to Ukraine from Germany", alltså verkstadsfaciliteter. Först i ett senare skede kan det bli fråga om tillverkning. Det finns inget som talar för att detta kan bli aktuellt före krigsslutet:

German-Ukraine ammo factory construction begins: 200k rounds annually

Rheinmetall released a statement explaining that the future ‘Ukrainian Ammunition Competence Center’ is set to produce six-figure quantities of 155 mm caliber ammunition annually, including the related propellants. Industry insiders speculate that the facility’s output could reach nearly 200,000 rounds per year.

Work on the factory is scheduled to commence this quarter. According to knowledgeable sources, Rheinmetall and its Ukrainian partner aim to have the joint artillery factory fully operational within 15 months. The DAX Group will own a 51% stake in the joint venture, leaving the Ukrainian party with the remaining 49%.

[...]

However, this aid isn’t unconditional. It involves a comprehensive weapons package, containing 36 self-propelled 155mm howitzers, split between 18 PzH2000 and 18 RCH-155 units. But, there’s a hitch. The delivery of these advanced artillery systems is scheduled for 2025-2027. Additionally, Ukraine’s long-held desire to acquire Taurus cruise missiles comes with a caveat — they are required to renounce this pursuit as a stipulation of this deal.

Dessutom ska Rheinmetall tillverka 200 000 granater per år i Ukraina. Däremot får Ukraina inte Taurus-missiler förrän Merz blir förbundskansler nästa år.

Ukraine to open a joint plant with Rheinmetall to produce shells

Last year, Rheinmetall expanded its existing production lines and acquired Spanish manufacturer Expal Systems to increase supplies.

The defense concern Rheinmetall is also building a new ammunition plant in Germany that will have a full production cycle. The enterprise will be able to produce up to 1800-1900 tons of hexogen and will have a foundry for the production of artillery shells with a capacity of up to 200,000 units per year.

Rheinmetall plans to produce a total of 700,000 155-mm artillery shells by the end of this year.

Enligt somliga källor kan Rheinmetall snart uppnå en årlig tillverkningskapacitet på en miljon granater!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

450.000 granater till salu? För omgående leverans? Låter sensationellt.

[...]

Erdogan och Turkiet är som de är. De vet man aldrig var man har. Ena dagen säljer de, andra dagen inte. Rena basaren, faktiskt.

Czech President says Czechia found way to get 800,000 shells for Ukraine

"So far, we have found half a million 155mm shells and 300,000 122mm shells, which we can ship [to Ukraine] in a few weeks provided we have the funding. We will address our partners in the United States, Germany, Sweden, etc., for such assistance," he said.

Nä, 800 000 granater. Dessvärre verkar förslaget blockeras av Frankrike, Grekland och Cypern - som väntat. Tyskland kan dock redan ha köpt en del av detta.

Mycket rykten i omlopp just nu, som propagandakollektivet Enceladus gladeligen vidarebefordrar. Vore bra med en icke-ukrainsk källa.