Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

Erdogan har ratificerat Sveriges Natoansökan

Beskedet kommer två dagar efter att det turkiska parlamentet ställt sig bakom Sveriges medlemskap och innebär att den utdragna processen för godkännandet är över. Efter omröstningen i kammaren hade president Erdogan 15 dagar på sig att skriva under lagen. För Finland tog det fyra dagar.

[...]

”Med president Erdoğans underskrift är den turkiska beslutsprocessen färdig. Turkiet kan nu överlämna sitt instrument i Washington. Därefter återstår bara Ungerns ratificering innan Sverige kan bli medlem”, skriver han på X.

[...]

Parlamentet befinner sig fortfarande på vinteruppehåll och väntas inte sammanträda förrän andra halvan av februari. Oppositionen vill få till en session innan dess för att rösta i frågan, men på torsdagen sade landets talman, Orbáns partikollega László Kövér, att det inte är bråttom att hantera ärendet.

Ungern, med Viktor Orban i spetsen, har länge lovat att inte vara sist ut att godkänna Sverige, men nu blir det ändå så. Har ungrarna tagits lite på sängen?

Orbanien kan väl donera sina Gripen till Ukraina. Om de får nya Jas-39E istället. Fetknoppen är ju fullt mutbar.

Sveriges potentiella press på Ungern: Gripen

Sverige hyr sedan 2006 ut 14 Gripen-flyg till det ungerska flygvapnet.

[...]

”Genom att Ungern leasar Jas-planen så skulle den svenska regeringen kunna säga att vi behöver dem för att Ukraina ska få dem i kriget just nu. Det skulle vara en symbolisk näsbränna för Orbán”, fortsätter han.

[...]

Så samtidigt som Ungerns regering skramlar och vill att Kristersson ska komma till Budapest för att förbättra ländernas relationer – och därefter möjligen säga ja till Sveriges Natoansökan – så har Sverige ett eget vapen att ta till, säger Anders Blomqvist.

Ungern är beroende av svenskt stöd för sina Gripen-plan, precis som Turkiet är av USA. Sverige kan slå två flugor i en smäll genom att blockera ett förvärv!

[Enceladus]

Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine’s Advantage in 2024

This winter, Ukraine’s military is visibly running on fumes, as recent reporting shows M109 Paladin artillery outside Bakhmut receiving only smoke shells for ammunition. When we were last there in November, shell hunger was widespread along the front, and the situation has only gotten worse. Following months of hard fighting, Ukraine’s offensive in 2023 proved a missed opportunity. The current situation is also not sustainable long term. It is clear Ukraine and the West need a new strategic vision. This means planning beyond the next six months or the next offensive operation. While the current state of the war has been described as a stalemate, spurring an animated debate over what that means, Russia holds material, industrial, and manpower advantages in 2024, along with the initiative. However, with tailored Western support, Ukraine could hold against Russian forces this year and rebuild the necessary advantage to conduct large-scale offensive operations in 2025, recreating another opportunity to deal Russia a battlefield defeat. Conversely, without major adjustments, or if Western support falters, the current path holds a high risk of exhaustion over time and Ukraine being forced to negotiate with Moscow from a position of weakness.

Militäranalytikerna Michael Kofman, Rob Lee och Dara Massicot har formulerat en strategi för de närmaste åren. Den politiska viljan i väst avgör förstås utfallet.

Generellt kan man ju, liksom som Nato, befara att ryssarna tänker försöka spela Kung Vinter igen:

Russia’s Oil Industry Threatened by Ukrainian Drones, Western Sanctions

Russian oil refineries rarely generate much news. Yet since the start of 2024, they have barely left the front pages: first, there was an accident at Lukoil’s Kstovo refinery; then successful Ukrainian attacks on refineries in Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea, and Tuapse on the Black Sea. These incidents garnered so much media attention because they pose major questions about how well Russia’s energy industry is coping with the pressures of wartime.

[...]

Russia was given a reminder of the importance of refineries last summer, when the country was gripped by a fuel crisis that triggered gasoline shortages, and a blanket ban on gasoline exports. Although this was mostly caused by poor political decisionmaking, there were also some issues in the energy sector.

[...]

If this is Kyiv’s plan, it’s similar to the tactics employed by Russia a year ago, when it targeted the Ukrainian power system, bombing transformers in the hope that repairs would take time. In the end, Ukraine managed to source enough spare parts, and come up with enough quick fixes that Russia’s campaign failed. Now, it’s Russia’s energy infrastructure that’s in the crosshairs—and Russia needs to find a coping strategy.

Kan Ukraina göra världen en tjänst och slå ut Rysslands produktion samt export av olja? Detta är verkligen ett unikt tillfälle att tvinga Ryssland att ställa om!

Det blir allt svårare för Ryssland att exportera olja och gas. Nyligen har stora mängder rysk olja fastnat utanför Indien. Dessutom ökar rabatten på rysk olja:

Exclusive: Russia struggles to sell Pacific oil, 14 tankers stuck - sources, data

More than a dozen tankers loaded with 10 million barrels of Russia's Sokol grade crude oil have been stranded off the coast of South Korea for weeks, so far unsold due to U.S. sanctions and payment issues, according to two traders and shipping data.

The volumes, equating to 1.3 million metric tons, represent more than a month's production of the Sakhalin-1 project, once a flagship venture of U.S. major Exxon Mobil, which exited Russia after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

[...]

Shipments of Sokol to the Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS) have been delayed by payment problems, forcing India's biggest refiner to draw from its inventories and buy more oil from the Middle East.

A source close to IOC said the company did not expect to receive any Sokol shipments soon due to a disagreement over which currency would be used to pay for it.

Ovanpå detta måste Ryssland kringgå de västerländska sanktionerna, vilket tydligen är lättare sagt än gjort!

Tesla och Volvo är två av Kinas inkörsportar till Europa. Vad säger Xi om detta, eller för den delen Putinkramaren Musk? Har Egypten råd att förlora intäkterna?

Exclusive: China presses Iran to rein in Houthi attacks in Red Sea, sources say

Chinese officials have asked their Iranian counterparts to help rein in attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthis, or risk harming business relations with Beijing, four Iranian sources and a diplomat familiar with the matter said.

[...]

"Basically, China says: 'If our interests are harmed in any way, it will impact our business with Tehran. So tell the Houthis to show restraint'," said one Iranian official briefed on the talks, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.

[...]

A senior U.S. official said Washington had asked China to use its leverage with Iran to persuade it to restrain the Houthis, including in conversations Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had this month with senior Chinese Communist Party official Liu Jianchao.

[...]

The four Iranian sources said it was unclear whether Iran would take any action following the discussions with Beijing.

Kina tycks ha tröttnat på rebellerna i Jemen - inte konstigt med tanke på landets massiva export till Europa. Ändå är det USA som säkrar handeln i Röda havet.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine’s Advantage in 2024[

Militäranalytikerna Michael Kofman, Rob Lee och Dara Massicot har formulerat en strategi för de närmaste åren. Den politiska viljan i väst avgör förstås utfallet.

Det där var en av de mest nyktra analyserna jag läst, långt ifrån "klockan tickar för Putin" eller "det ser mörkt ut för Putin". I synnerhet Kofman har ju tidigare ägnat sig åt en del obefogad överoptimism. Slutklämmen i artikeln är mest värd att citera

The West is advantaged in terms of technological innovation and financial resources, but much depends on political will. For example, although Europe missed its goal of 1 million shells this year, it has put $2.2 billion toward production and might well meet it by 2025. Western sluggishness is not the same as inaction, with some efforts gaining momentum. Yet despite the ability to out-innovate and out-produce Russia, it is Moscow that has leapt ahead in scaling production of drones and mobilizing its defense industrial base. Russian leadership is now visibly overconfident. They see the current trendline in this war as favoring them. Hence, the next year will prove important in demonstrating that even at the peak of its defense spending, and defense-industrial output, Russia is still unable to achieve its objectives in this war. Meanwhile, the costs will mount, and, ideally, it is Moscow that will face growing uncertainty in 2025.

Failure does not mean the war will resolve itself into a frozen conflict. Ukraine may begin losing the war this year, as Russian advantages multiply into 2025 and 2026. In 2024, the West faces a critical choice. Otherwise, as our colleague Jack Watling recently argued, the West will cede an irrecoverable advantage to Russia in this war. A defeat would see Moscow impose its will on Ukraine and walk away from the war believing that it had effectively exhausted and defeated the West. Despite the strategic cost to Russia, Ukraine would lose territory and would bear a higher burden for the war in population and economic losses. While Russia will pose an enduring military threat to European security in either scenario, a Russia that suffers a costly defeat is clearly preferable to an emboldened Moscow that is able to recover without having to worry about Ukraine’s armed forces.

This is a sobering reality, but this outcome is not inevitable. However, it will take hard political choices to bring this situation about both in Ukraine and in the West. Key decisions have to be made this year, the earlier the better, in order to put the war on a more positive trajectory. To succeed, Ukraine and the West must align expectations and articulate a clear vision for the next 18 months: what we are building toward, how, and what the theory of success is moving forward. Without a long-term strategy, it will be difficult to achieve unity of effort and manage scarce resources.

(samtliga understrykningar ovan är mina egna)

Det som sägs ovan stämmer ganska väl överens med den här artikeln: Russia’s defence industry gears up for a long war (European Defence Review)

samt det jag skrev om här: viewtopic.php?p=417684#p417684

Representanthuset talman Mike Johnson hade faktiskt rätt, men kanske inte på det sätt han själv avsåg

“We cannot spend billions of dollars without a clear strategy articulated and I told the president in the meeting today again, as I’ve been saying repeatedly, ‘Sir, you have to articulate what the strategy is. What is the endgame?’” Johnson said Wednesday night in an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins.

Det kommer att krävas massor med kloka, långsiktiga beslut, men är USA:s och Europas politiker kapabla till det? I USA har trumpister och fascister tagit kommandot, och i Europa hukar regeringspolitikerna inför högerextremismens och fascisrmens frammarsch i kommande Europaval:
Extrempartiers väntade framgångar hotar EU-samarbete (Aftonbladet)
Ukraine: Do Liberal Democracies Have Staying Power? (RUSI)

Oerhört mycket står på spel: What Ukraine's Defeat Would Mean for the US, Europe and the World (RUSI)

[Enceladus]

Problemet är att monster inte sällan vänder sig mot sin skapare. Inte minst Putin borde veta bättre efter

Det vet man ingenting om. Dessutom är inte Putin Houthi-rebellernas "skapare". Men de siktar dåligt!

Updated: Trafigura Tanker on Fire, Hit by Houthi Missile in Gulf of Aden

Earlier today it was the same vessel, the Marlin Luanda, that relayed information on the earlier attack. In the first instance, they reported an explosion in the air approximately 200 to 300 meters above the waterline of another tanker, the Panama-flagged Achilles. The explosion occurred about one nautical mile away from the tanker. The projectile did not make contact with either vessel, according to Vanguard. A French warship was reported to be patrolling in the area at the time.

The Achilles, a 109,000 dwt crude oil tanker, was also southbound in the Red Sea. The vessel's AIS signal shows that it was sailing from Primorsk, Russia, and displaying the message “No Link With Israel.” This tanker is reportedly under contract to an Indian shipper.

Även Ryssland åker snålskjuts på västerländska örlogsfartyg...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Tesla och Volvo är två av Kinas inkörsportar till Europa. Vad säger Xi om detta, eller för den delen Putinkramaren Musk? Har Egypten råd att förlora intäkterna?

Exclusive: China presses Iran to rein in Houthi attacks in Red Sea, sources say

Chinese officials have asked their Iranian counterparts to help rein in attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthis, or risk harming business relations with Beijing, four Iranian sources and a diplomat familiar with the matter said.

[...]

"Basically, China says: 'If our interests are harmed in any way, it will impact our business with Tehran. So tell the Houthis to show restraint'," said one Iranian official briefed on the talks, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.

[...]

A senior U.S. official said Washington had asked China to use its leverage with Iran to persuade it to restrain the Houthis, including in conversations Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had this month with senior Chinese Communist Party official Liu Jianchao.

[...]

The four Iranian sources said it was unclear whether Iran would take any action following the discussions with Beijing.

Kina tycks ha tröttnat på rebellerna i Jemen - inte konstigt med tanke på landets massiva export till Europa. Ändå är det USA som säkrar handeln i Röda havet.

Framför allt vill den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen infiltrera mellanöstern: How China is winning the Middle East (Defense One)

China is working to present itself as a responsible alternative to the U.S. in the Middle East, just as many are questioning Washington’s long-term commitment to the region.

Nu när USA inte kan säkra sjötrafiken i Röda Havet: Senators question legality of Biden’s Houthi strikes in Yemen (Defense News)

Men hur mycket kontroll har Iran över sina proxies egentligen: How much influence does Iran have over its proxies? (Defense One)

Och fascisten Netayahu, som håller igång kriget också för sin egen skull, måste bort: Netanyahu must be removed, top former Israeli national security officials say

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Oerhört mycket står på spel: What Ukraine's Defeat Would Mean for the US, Europe and the World (RUSI)

Ytterligare en analys som överensstämmer med ovanstående: Risk 3: Partitioned Ukraine

Tapering US political and material support will deepen a rift in the transatlantic alliance, which is the cornerstone of the international system. Europeans view current and likely future cuts in US assistance to Ukraine as an Afghanistan 2.0 policy lurch, but with much higher stakes for European security. Their concern is magnified by the risk that Trump will try to take the US out of NATO if he wins in November. Russia's upper hand will make the Kremlin feel like it successfully stared down the West on an existential issue, emboldening Putin to lean on unsupportive countries in the EU and NATO (such as Hungary and Slovakia) and driving further division.

A partitioned Ukraine will also undermine US credibility on the global stage. The United States made a major security commitment to help Ukraine protect itself and regain its land for “as long as it takes.” Domestic politics is leading the US to renege on this commitment, worsening the image of the US as an unreliable partner (please see Top Risk #1). Rogue and revisionist states will be emboldened accordingly (please see Top Risk #5). What's more, the war's trendline will make Ukraine a political loser for Biden during an election year, giving Trump a boost. A Trump win would accelerate this decline in US credibility.

[Enceladus]

Ukraine: Do Liberal Democracies Have Staying Power? (RUSI)

South Korea–Ukraine partnership charged with reenergising Europe’s battery market

Alleviating suffering of the Ukrainian people and helping Ukraine re-emerge from the ashes of war is Seoul’s immediate priority in its burgeoning partnership with Kyiv. But in the long term, the emerging South Korea–Ukraine relationship in the realm of lithium also stands to benefit Europe more broadly by helping Europe break China’s grip on the production of renewable batteries.

South Korea has become a battery cathode export powerhouse. Access to lithium, a resource which Ukraine reportedly has in abundance, is absolutely critical for South Korea’s ambition to hold a 40 per cent share of global battery production by 2030.

The partnership between Seoul and Kyiv presents an opportunity for South Korea to secure greater amounts of lithium. This will help Seoul tap into the European battery market, which is set to grow with the rise of electric vehicles.

Demokratier håller ihop. Notera att East Asia Forum är en australisk plattform. Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 14 115 enheter, varav 20 TOS-1A.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ukraine: Do Liberal Democracies Have Staying Power? (RUSI)

South Korea–Ukraine partnership charged with reenergising Europe’s battery market

Alleviating suffering of the Ukrainian people and helping Ukraine re-emerge from the ashes of war is Seoul’s immediate priority in its burgeoning partnership with Kyiv. But in the long term, the emerging South Korea–Ukraine relationship in the realm of lithium also stands to benefit Europe more broadly by helping Europe break China’s grip on the production of renewable batteries.

South Korea has become a battery cathode export powerhouse. Access to lithium, a resource which Ukraine reportedly has in abundance, is absolutely critical for South Korea’s ambition to hold a 40 per cent share of global battery production by 2030.

The partnership between Seoul and Kyiv presents an opportunity for South Korea to secure greater amounts of lithium. This will help Seoul tap into the European battery market, which is set to grow with the rise of electric vehicles.

Demokratier håller ihop. Notera att East Asia Forum är en australisk plattform.

Det som nämns ovan har ju väldigt lite bäring på de problem RUSI skriver om.

Men Ukrainas naturtillgångar har betydelse för kriget, eftersom en av anledningarna till att de ryska tjuvarna och banditerna startade kriget var att de ville åt dessa: Russia plundering Ukraine's natural resources

Ukraina är förhållandevis mineralrikt, inte minst på litium: UKRAINE: ALL LITHIUM RESERVES AND MINERAL RESOURCES IN WAR ZONES

EurAsia Group (ej att förväxla med ovanstående) skriver om detta globalt. Litium är långt ifrån det enda grundämne som efterfrågas, även om det vore angeläget med en batteriteknisk utveckling som minskade beroendet av just detta. Risk 7: The fight for critical minerals

Australien har f.ö. betydande brytvärda litiumtillgångar.

[Enceladus]

India pivots away from Russian arms, but will retain strong ties

India is seeking to distance itself from its largest arms supplier after Russia's ability to supply munitions and spares was hobbled by the war in Ukraine, but must step carefully to avoid pushing Moscow closer to China, Indian sources said.

[...]

Russia supplied 65% of India's weapons purchases of more than $60 billion during the last two decades, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, but the Ukraine war hastened the impetus to diversify its weapons base.

"We are not likely to sign any major military deal with Russia," said Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russia expert at New Delhi think tank the Observer Research Foundation. "That would be a red line for Washington."

Mästerstrategen har slagit till. Indien kommer aldrig mer att köpa vapen från Ryssland i någon större utsträckning.

Russia’s planned gas mega-pipeline to China hit by construction delay

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at least twice last year, but while Russia has repeatedly emphasised its readiness to launch PS-2, Beijing has been conspicuously silent.

[...]

Sergey Vakulenko, a former strategy director for Gazprom Neft and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia was likely to be seeking better financial terms from China than it had achieved in the PS-1 contract, signed in 2014 when global gas prices were much lower.

[...]

“On one hand it’s a no-brainer for the Chinese, they should have this gas. On the other hand, there is Russia with stranded gas, lots of it, and which wants better terms,” he said “I guess it’s a bit of horse-trading at the moment.”

Den så kallade "manchuriska presidenten" gör det igen, för att parafrasera före detta biträdande energiminister Vladimir Milov. Han skriver ännu för The Insider.

Meloni försöker rädda Orban från sin isolering. Han verkar nappa på betet. Dessutom går det inte så bra för Ungerns ekonomi. Orban behöver EU-pengarna:

Brussels threatens to hit Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid

In a document drawn up by EU officials and seen by the Financial Times, Brussels has outlined a strategy to explicitly target Hungary’s economic weaknesses, imperil its currency and drive a collapse in investor confidence in a bid to hurt “jobs and growth” if Budapest refuses to lift its veto against the aid to Kyiv.

[...]

But in a sign of the rising pressure on Budapest to strike a compromise, Bóka said Budapest sent a new proposal to Brussels on Saturday, specifying it was now open to using the EU budget for the Ukraine package and even issuing common debt to finance it, if other caveats were added that gave Budapest the opportunity to change its mind at a later date.

The document, produced by an official in the Council of the EU, the Brussels body that represents member states, lays out Hungary’s economic vulnerabilities — including its “very high public deficit”, “very high inflation”, weak currency and the EU’s highest level of debt servicing payments as a proportion of gross domestic product.

Äntligen hotar EU med att ta i med hårdhandskarna mot det så kallade Orbanien. Som bekant går det inte så bra för landets ekonomi:

Hungary’s debt servicing payments doubled through the third quarter of last year, putting the nation on track to surge past Italy for the highest level in the European Union in 2023.

[...]

Hungary became one of the year’s first emerging-market sovereigns on Wednesday to sell dollar-bonds to meet rising financing needs. The eastern European nation has ramped up borrowing last year to cover missing EU funds, which had been suspended due to graft and rule-of-law concerns under Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s rule.

With EU funds in a limbo, Hungary last year raised forint issuance, paying a hefty premium on inflation-linked retail bonds, especially as consumer price-growth last year averaged just below 18%, according to central bank estimates.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Russia’s planned gas mega-pipeline to China hit by construction delay

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at least twice last year, but while Russia has repeatedly emphasised its readiness to launch PS-2, Beijing has been conspicuously silent.

[...]

Sergey Vakulenko, a former strategy director for Gazprom Neft and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia was likely to be seeking better financial terms from China than it had achieved in the PS-1 contract, signed in 2014 when global gas prices were much lower.

[...]

“On one hand it’s a no-brainer for the Chinese, they should have this gas. On the other hand, there is Russia with stranded gas, lots of it, and which wants better terms,” he said “I guess it’s a bit of horse-trading at the moment.”

Den så kallade "manchuriska presidenten" gör det igen, för att parafrasera före detta biträdande energiminister Vladimir Milov. Han skriver ännu för The Insider.

Manchuriske presidenten? Det var ju Obama, enligt amerikanska högerextremister. Obama var ju som bekant en del av en världskommunistisk sammansvärjning. The Manchurian President: Barack Obama's Ties to Communists, Socialists and Other Anti-American Extremists
Författaren, Aaaron Klein är en känd amerikansk-israelisk högerextremist, trumpist och hantlangare åt Netanyahu.

Och nu ska vi höra vad Donald Trump anser om detta:


Och de israeliska fascisterna håller stormöten: Netanyahu Ministers Join Thousands of Israelis in 'Resettle Gaza' Conference Calling for Palestinians' Transfer (Haaretz)
Uttrycket "transfer", som eufemism för folkfördrivning och etnisk rensning, hörde jag första gången på radio för många år sedan, då SR intervjuade en svensk-israelisk bosättare på västbanken.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

En av USA:s miltärbaser i mellanöstern har ju som bekant utsatts för luftangrepp från iranska proxies, och nu måste Joe Biden "slå tillbaka", helst med väpnade angrepp direkt mot Iran, enligt amerikanska militärhökar: Retired colonel on a 'warning' to Iran in aftermath of US troops killed in Jordan

Och nu ska vi se vad Donald Trump anser om detta:
Trump seizes on US troops killed and border crisis to sell general election message

The ex-president was also quick to exploit another crisis for political gain on Sunday. After tragedy struck in the Middle East when three US troops were killed in a drone attack in Jordan, Trump put all the blame on Biden and his perceived lack of strength, claiming that current wars would never have happened if he were in the Oval Office. “(We) would right now have Peace throughout the World. Instead, we are on the brink of World War 3,” Trump said in a statement.

His attacks represent gross simplifications of complex problems and an inflated sense of his own foreign policy, which was chiefly characterized by cozying up to dictators and excoriating US allies, while turning the United States – a source of global stability for decades – into a force for disruption.

But Trump’s attacks do stress the real political peril Biden faces at home as he wrestles with the possibility that an expanding Middle Eastern war could drag the US back into a regional conflict.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Meloni försöker rädda Orban från sin isolering. Han verkar nappa på betet. Dessutom går det inte så bra för Ungerns ekonomi. Orban behöver EU-pengarna:

Brussels threatens to hit Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid

In a document drawn up by EU officials and seen by the Financial Times, Brussels has outlined a strategy to explicitly target Hungary’s economic weaknesses, imperil its currency and drive a collapse in investor confidence in a bid to hurt “jobs and growth” if Budapest refuses to lift its veto against the aid to Kyiv.

[...]

But in a sign of the rising pressure on Budapest to strike a compromise, Bóka said Budapest sent a new proposal to Brussels on Saturday, specifying it was now open to using the EU budget for the Ukraine package and even issuing common debt to finance it, if other caveats were added that gave Budapest the opportunity to change its mind at a later date.

The document, produced by an official in the Council of the EU, the Brussels body that represents member states, lays out Hungary’s economic vulnerabilities — including its “very high public deficit”, “very high inflation”, weak currency and the EU’s highest level of debt servicing payments as a proportion of gross domestic product.

Äntligen hotar EU med att ta i med hårdhandskarna mot det så kallade Orbanien. Som bekant går det inte så bra för landets ekonomi:

Hungary’s debt servicing payments doubled through the third quarter of last year, putting the nation on track to surge past Italy for the highest level in the European Union in 2023.

[...]

Hungary became one of the year’s first emerging-market sovereigns on Wednesday to sell dollar-bonds to meet rising financing needs. The eastern European nation has ramped up borrowing last year to cover missing EU funds, which had been suspended due to graft and rule-of-law concerns under Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s rule.

With EU funds in a limbo, Hungary last year raised forint issuance, paying a hefty premium on inflation-linked retail bonds, especially as consumer price-growth last year averaged just below 18%, according to central bank estimates.

I vart fall har ländernas delegationerna träffats.

Ukrainas delegation med utrikesminster Dmytro Kuleba och president Zelenskyjs stabschef Andriy Yermak t.h.
Mannen till vänster i skinheadsfrisyr är Orbans utrikesminister Péter Szijjártó. Inte påfallande glada miner.

Orbans hantlangare hade som förväntat ett helt annat perspektiv: Foreign Minister Calls for Peace and Restoration of Minority Rights during Visit to Ukraine (Hungary Today, Orbans propagandakanal, jmfr Russia Today). Här verkar det mest handla om att underblåsa motsättningarna mellan ukrainare och den ungerska minoritet som hamnade i Ukraina när Storungern upplöstes efter WW1 ("Restoration of Minority Rights"). Och de fascistiska gamarna börjar kretsa: Hungary far-right would lay claim to neighbouring region if Ukraine loses war.

Annat var det här:

[Enceladus]

A Road with a Clear Goal: What Is Behind the Results of the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index

If we look back on the past year, we will see many positive changes, apart from corruption scandals and the suspicion notices served to senior officials. The adoption of the State Anti-Corruption Program, the resumption of e-declaration and political parties reporting, the strengthening of the SAPO, and the decision to increase the staff of the NABU and the HACC—all this surely indicates the real anti-corruption shifts in Ukraine. The very scandals stirring up society and all the suspicion notices served and sentences passed (there were 65 of them last year) indicate the engagement of civil society, investigative journalists, and law enforcement agencies, which are to fight corruption.

[...]

And if we consider progress in the Corruption Perceptions Index, we will see that those countries that have long been candidates for the EU have grown very slowly in the CPI. Whereas Ukraine and Moldova, which have shown their desire to join the European community, have demonstrated almost the greatest increase in recent years among all countries. Now Ukraine has caught up with Serbia in the Index and has already overtaken Bosnia and Turkey, while Moldova has caught up with Hungary, which has long been in the EU.

Ukrainas kamp mot storskalig korruption har gett resultat samtidigt som den negativa utvecklingen fortsätter i Sverige, Ungern och naturligtvis Ryssland:

According to the recently published index that includes 180 countries, Ukraine went from the 144th least corrupt country in 2013 to 104th last year. It has also improved its score from 25 points to 36 over this period, with the higher number signifying less corruption.

[...]

In comparison, Russia's ranking went from the 127th least corrupt country in 2013 to 141st 10 years later, while its score dropped from 28 to 26. In 2022, Russia ranked 137th with a score of 28.

Ryssland riskerar att bli en kollapsad stat om efterfrågan på olja och gas kollapsar. Verkligheten kommer dock alltid ikapp, i detta fall kanske tidigare än väntat:

Det går som sagt inte att lita på Ryssland. Oljekartellen Opec hoppas på ökad efterfrågan. Peak oil uppnås dock via minskad efterfrågan snarare än brist!

Saudi Oil U-Turn Stokes Doubts Over Future Demand

State giant Saudi Aramco provided no rationale when it said Tuesday it would ditch efforts to reach capacity of 13 million barrels a day by 2027 and instead hold at the current 12 million.

[...]

Riyadh is already keeping about 25% of total output in the ground as a result of cutbacks made with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. With so much capacity lying dormant, it may question the need to build more.

The International Energy Agency predicts that oil demand will peak this decade amid a switch to renewable energy and electric vehicles, though the Saudis and their partners have steadfastly disputed that prospect.

Saudiarabien drar tillbaka den tilltänkta oljeproduktionsökningen planerad till 2027, trots att landet förfäktar att efterfrågan ökar. Har marknaden synat bluffen?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Erdogan har ratificerat Sveriges Natoansökan

Beskedet kommer två dagar efter att det turkiska parlamentet ställt sig bakom Sveriges medlemskap och innebär att den utdragna processen för godkännandet är över. Efter omröstningen i kammaren hade president Erdogan 15 dagar på sig att skriva under lagen. För Finland tog det fyra dagar.

[...]

”Med president Erdoğans underskrift är den turkiska beslutsprocessen färdig. Turkiet kan nu överlämna sitt instrument i Washington. Därefter återstår bara Ungerns ratificering innan Sverige kan bli medlem”, skriver han på X.

[...]

Parlamentet befinner sig fortfarande på vinteruppehåll och väntas inte sammanträda förrän andra halvan av februari. Oppositionen vill få till en session innan dess för att rösta i frågan, men på torsdagen sade landets talman, Orbáns partikollega László Kövér, att det inte är bråttom att hantera ärendet.

Ungern, med Viktor Orban i spetsen, har länge lovat att inte vara sist ut att godkänna Sverige, men nu blir det ändå så. Har ungrarna tagits lite på sängen?

Orbaniens utrikesminister tycker inte att det brådskar

Ungerns utrikesminister Péter Szijjártó säger till tv-kanalen ATV att en ratificering av Sveriges Nato-ansökan kan vänta till parlamentets öppning i slutet av februari.

Den ungerska oppositionen skickade på måndagen in en begäran om en omedelbar extra parlamentssittning för att rösta om Sveriges anslutning, och föreslår till talmannen László Kövér att sittningen ska ske på måndag nästa vecka.

Utrikesminister Péter Szijjártó, som tillhör regeringspartiet Fidesz, håller dock inte med om att det är bråttom att rösta i frågan. Han säger till den ungerska tv-kanalen ATV att en omröstning kan vänta till parlamentets ordinarie session i slutet av februari.

– Vi är nu inte långt ifrån början av den ordinarie sessionen, i slutet av februari, därför ser jag ingen anledning till en extra parlamentssittning, säger Szijjártó och lägger till att ”vi kommer fortfarande att vara de sista”.

Men vad är det för frisyr han har lagt sig till med?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine’s Advantage in 2024

This winter, Ukraine’s military is visibly running on fumes, as recent reporting shows M109 Paladin artillery outside Bakhmut receiving only smoke shells for ammunition. When we were last there in November, shell hunger was widespread along the front, and the situation has only gotten worse. Following months of hard fighting, Ukraine’s offensive in 2023 proved a missed opportunity. The current situation is also not sustainable long term. It is clear Ukraine and the West need a new strategic vision. This means planning beyond the next six months or the next offensive operation. While the current state of the war has been described as a stalemate, spurring an animated debate over what that means, Russia holds material, industrial, and manpower advantages in 2024, along with the initiative. However, with tailored Western support, Ukraine could hold against Russian forces this year and rebuild the necessary advantage to conduct large-scale offensive operations in 2025, recreating another opportunity to deal Russia a battlefield defeat. Conversely, without major adjustments, or if Western support falters, the current path holds a high risk of exhaustion over time and Ukraine being forced to negotiate with Moscow from a position of weakness.

Militäranalytikerna Michael Kofman, Rob Lee och Dara Massicot har formulerat en strategi för de närmaste åren. Den politiska viljan i väst avgör förstås utfallet.

Denne analytiker är mer pessimistisk beträffande möjligheten för Ukraina att helt återställa 2014 års gränser:
Kyiv’s Allies Need to Rethink Ukraine’s Victory Strategy (The Moscow Times)

[Enceladus]

Denne analytiker är mer pessimistisk beträffande möjligheten för Ukraina att helt återställa 2014 års gränser:
Kyiv’s Allies Need to Rethink Ukraine’s Victory Strategy (The Moscow Times)

Och denne analytiker är mer optimistisk: Ukraine Can Win a War of Attrition (Wilson Center)

Alla kan göra ett selektivt urval. Jämför ex.vis hur Samhällsnytt och Expressen skriver om Greta Thunberg, eller varför inte vägblockader av bönder resp. ivrare.

Men vad är det för frisyr han har lagt sig till med?

Kuleba explains why Szijjártó and Orbán are not pro-Russian politicians

Kuleba was asked whether he considers Orbán and Szijjártó to be pro-Russian politicians because of their statements.

"If this were to be confirmed, it would mean big trouble for both the EU and Hungary. But I think they are pro-Hungarian. If they were pro-Russian, then Peter would not have declared at the current meeting that he respects the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine," said the Ukrainian minister.

Nu hörs andra tongångar. Gissningsvis har Ungern lovat att vika sig. Dessutom kanske Ukraina får 5 miljarder euro extra.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Denne analytiker är mer pessimistisk beträffande möjligheten för Ukraina att helt återställa 2014 års gränser:
Kyiv’s Allies Need to Rethink Ukraine’s Victory Strategy (The Moscow Times)

Och denne analytiker är mer optimistisk: Ukraine Can Win a War of Attrition (Wilson Center)

Alla kan göra ett selektivt urval. Jämför ex.vis hur Samhällsnytt och Expressen skriver om Greta Thunberg, eller varför inte vägblockader av bönder resp. ivrare.

Ja, det finns olika åsikter och möjlighet att göra olika analyser - de kan vara värda att läsa under alla förhållanden, även om det är jobbigt och svårbegripligt för Enceladus-kollektivet. Detta utan att man behöver ägna sig åt kvalificerat struntprat om Samhällsnytt, Greta Thunberg eller franska bönder, och misstänkliggöranden av av typen "selektivt urval".

Men får väl vara glad över att propagandakollektivet "Enceladus" efter nästan ett år ändå vuxit ifrån förlöpningar av typen

Varför envisas skribenten med att referera till rysk propaganda som uppenbarligen inte har något med verkligheten att göra?

eller

Till ingens förvåning fortsätter skribentens ensidiga rapportering.

när det gäller sådant som inte passar de egna åsikterna.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Kuleba explains why Szijjártó and Orbán are not pro-Russian politicians

Kuleba was asked whether he considers Orbán and Szijjártó to be pro-Russian politicians because of their statements.

"If this were to be confirmed, it would mean big trouble for both the EU and Hungary. But I think they are pro-Hungarian. If they were pro-Russian, then Peter would not have declared at the current meeting that he respects the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine," said the Ukrainian minister.

Nu hörs andra tongångar. Gissningsvis har Ungern lovat att vika sig.

En utrikesminister är en nations främste diplomat. En diplomat gör diplomatiska uttalanden.

Orbanien kommer i varje fall aldrig att vara någon pålitlig vän.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Uppgifter gör gällande att Ukrainas president Volodymyr Zelenskiy vill att överbefälhavaren, general Valerii Zaluzhnyi, ska avgå:
Ukraine’s top general refuses request from Zelenskiy to step down (The Guardian)

Ukrainska medier gör gällande att detta helt och hållet är en rysk propagandaoperation.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Och så var det ju det där med Trump: Is Europe ready for another Donald Trump presidency? (DW)

Förra gången gick det ju inte så bra - och då hade Putin ännu inte startat krig i Europa:


Här ser vi Angela Merkel, som Trump betraktade som en gammal kommunist och knappt tålde (i synnerhet som han ogillar kvinnor på ledande poster), Japans förre premiärminster Shinzo Abe (mördad 2022) och republikanernas ständige hantlangare John Bolton.
Lyssnar han överhuvud taget?

Fast John Bolton verkar ju nu, i dessa yttersta av tider, ha kommit på andra tankar:
Varningen om Trump: Det skulle glädja Putin och Xi

För att inte tala om vad det skulle glädja Netanyahu (och hans fascistiska bisittare):