Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Och Vladimir Vladimirovitj Putin gnuggar händerna.

Houthis mistakenly target tanker carrying Russian oil - Ambrey report

Houthi militants mistakenly targeted a tanker carrying Russian oil in a missile attack on Friday off Yemen, British maritime security firm Ambrey said.

[...]

Ambrey said: "This was the second tanker mistakenly targeted by the Houthis whilst carrying Russian oil."

[...]

The United States and Britain carried out strikes from the air and sea against Houthi military targets in Yemen overnight. Russia, an ally of Iran and a partner of key Arab powers, denounced the strikes and called for an urgent meeting of the U.N. Security Council.

Problemet är att monster inte sällan vänder sig mot sin skapare. Inte minst Putin borde veta bättre efter

Det vet man ingenting om. Dessutom är inte Putin Houthi-rebellernas "skapare". Men de siktar dåligt!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Fantomsmärtorna över Storungerns undergång i Trianonfreden 1920 går visst aldrig över. Putin kan vara glad över at han har en så pålitlig vän i Budapest. Europas patrioter, som Giorgia Meloni, Italiens PM, säger:

“We are not monsters, the people understand that. Long live Vox (de spanska högerextremisterna, min anm.), long live Spain, long live Italy, long live Europe patriots,″ Meloni said. “Only by winning in our countries can Europe become a political giant that we want, and not a bureaucratic giant.”

Meloni Pushes Hungary’s Orban to Unlock Ukraine Aid in Back-Channel Talks

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is seeking to convince Hungarian Premier Viktor Orban to lift his opposition to the European Union’s support for Ukraine and to improve relations with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

[...]

Meloni is also pushing Orban to shift his approach on Ukraine’s EU membership aspirations and to reset relations with Kyiv as conditions for joining the ECR, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Discussions have taken place at various levels and no decision has been taken.

[...]

Even though the EU will try to convince Hungary to lift its veto of the Ukraine financing at the next month’s summit, the leaders are also eying alternatives, which could include an agreement at 26 without Budapest. Hungary said on Wednesday during the meeting that it wants a yearly review mechanism that would need to approve the disbursals by unanimity, according to another person familiar with those talks.

Meloni försöker rädda Orban från sin isolering. Han verkar nappa på betet. Dessutom går det inte så bra för Ungerns ekonomi. Orban behöver EU-pengarna:

The commission is also open to annual audits of the aid and the introduction of an “emergency brake” clause, whereby any country could put serious concerns about Ukraine payments up for discussion at a summit of EU leaders. It would not, however, give Hungary an additional opportunity to veto funding.

Asked if this would be sufficient for Orbán to drop his veto, a senior Hungarian official said: “Still uncertain, but I say most probably yes.”

The Hungarians “are in a negotiating mood”, said a person briefed on the discussions. Brussels unlocked €10bn of EU funding for Hungary in December that was previously frozen due to rule of law concerns, a few weeks after it approved a separate €900mn payout to the country.

Ja, Orban är fullt mutbar. Frågan är väl närmast vem som lurar vem. Både Orban och Meloni väntar f.ö. på Trumps återkomst. Här ser vi Meloni, i dåligt sällskap:

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Jag skulle nog vara försiktig med att använda sådana där floskler. Det här är exakt vad Houthierna och deras uppbackare den iranska mördarregimen vill.

Igår natt avfyrades drygt 80 Tomahawk-missiler, mer än den årliga produktionen, och inatt fortsätter attackerna. Rebellerna har förmodligen lidit stora skador:

The latest attack showed that the Biden administration would not wait for retaliation to press ahead with its campaign against the Houthis. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said his goal is to restore shipping through a vital trade waterway after the group’s earlier attacks forced many companies to route their ships around Africa.

[...]

Of the more than 100 precision-guided weapons fired at Houthi targets earlier, more than 80 were Tomahawk missiles, according to two American defense officials, who asked not to be identified discussing details that haven’t been widely released.

[...]

“Neither side is looking to have an all-out war, and they are badly mismatched,” Jon Alterman, a senior vice president at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, wrote in a note of the US and Iran. “But that is not to say that the Houthis will stop attacking shipping, or that the United States will stop attacking the Houthis.”

Förmodligen, förmodligen, förmodligen..........

Ja, det gissas friskt nu. Naturligtvis har Houthierna inte kapacitet att engagera USA frontalt - det har inte Iran heller, egentligen. Men det finns andra metoder, här är det fråga om sk. asymmetrisk krigföring. USA:s möjligheter och begränsningar framgår rätt bra av den artikel i The Warzone som jag refererade tidigare. Den är värd att läsa - för den intresserade, som inte så gärna förfaller till floskler och svepande omdömen.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Speaker Johnson Defies Hardline Ouster Threat on Spending Deal

US House Speaker Mike Johnson refused Friday to cave to pressure from hardline Republicans, empowering him to work with Democrats to avoid a shutdown, fund Ukraine and strike a border compromise — unless his rebellious right flank brings him down first.

[...]

Some moderate Republicans, many of whom represent areas President Joe Biden carried in 2020 and are crucial to the GOP maintaining its narrow House majority, met with Johnson before his announcement and urged him to stick with the deal.

[...]

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a hardliner from Georgia, said she would vote to oust Johnson over Ukraine funding, which she says shouldn’t be a prerequisite for strong action on border security. Ukraine spending is currently separate from the spending deal, but some lawmakers think it ultimately will be tied to a full-year funding package.

Även på andra sidan Atlanten verkar Ukraina ha funnit en oväntad allierad, nämligen representanthusets talman - en högerextrem kreationist!

Amerikanska republikanska högerextremister kan aldrig vara Ukrainas "allierade". De har bara ett överordnat mål, Donald Trumps omval till president
(har han ändrat ändrat uppfattning sedan dess?). Allt annat är partitaktiskt manövrerande.

Då blir det kannstöperier i som i notisen ovan.

Fascisten Marjorie Taylor Greenehar jag tagit itu med många gånger, senast här: viewtopic.php?p=417233#p417233

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Maria Vladimirovna Vorontsova, dotter till ni-vet-vem, har uttalat sig:
Putin's Daughter Breaks Silence in Rare TV Interview

During the interview, Vorontsova, who has largely stayed out of the public eye, called Russia a "human-centric society" rather than a "economic-centric society" and where "the value of human life is a supreme value."

Beklagar att jag åberopar Newsweek här, det är ju ingen trovärdig källa, har jag hört.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Men folkopinionen verkar mer intresserad av att rösta fram putinvänliga högerextrema politiker som Orban, Fico, Wilders, le Pen. Inte heller Meloni i Italien är att lita på. "Krigströtthet" brukar det kallas i media, men Europas folk vet ju sedan nästan 80 år inte någonting om vad krig innebär - till skillnad från Ukraina!

Att Ukraina är, eller kommer att bli ett "svart hål" där man bara öser ned mer och mer pengar är därför vad Putin vill få oss att tro: Putin's spy chief tells U.S: Ukraine will become your Vietnam

Oerhört mycket står på spel under supervalåret 2024: Supervalåret 2024: ett globalt demokrati- och klimattest (Utrikespolitiska Institutet)

Ett SvT-inslag som berör ovanstående: Land för land: Här minskar stödet för vapenleveranser till Ukraina

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Även på andra sidan Atlanten verkar Ukraina ha funnit en oväntad allierad, nämligen representanthusets talman - en högerextrem kreationist!

Amerikanska republikanska högerextremister kan aldrig vara Ukrainas "allierade". De har bara ett överordnat mål, Donald Trumps omval till president
(har han ändrat ändrat uppfattning sedan dess?). Allt annat är partitaktiskt manövrerande.

Ja, nu börjar snart primärvalssäsongen, med den sk. "kristna högern" som avgörande faktor:
Den kristna högern har en nyckelroll när Republikanernas primärval kör igång i Iowa: ”Jag tror Gud valde Donald Trump som vår president”

De är väl ungefär lika goda kristna som Vladimir Vladimirovitj Putin.

[Enceladus]

Generellt kan man ju, liksom som Nato, befara att ryssarna tänker försöka spela Kung Vinter igen:

Russia arrests three officials over heating outages south of Moscow

Authorities blamed the breakdown on failures at a boiler plant owned by a private ammunition factory. The heads of the heating plant and the factory were arrested on suspicion of providing unsafe services, investigators said in a statement.

[...]

The situation is embarrassing for authorities at a time when President Vladimir Putin is embarking on a campaign to be re-elected in March and voters are looking for assurances that the state can maintain decent living standards and public services despite the costs of the war in Ukraine.

[...]

"There has been no heating for six days already. Tomorrow will be a week," she said, adding that the electricity supply was too erratic to turn on a TV or a fridge.

Det gick visst inte så bra för Putin. Kan detta bero på att landets rörmokare befinner sig i Ukraina?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Generellt kan man ju, liksom som Nato, befara att ryssarna tänker försöka spela Kung Vinter igen:

Russia arrests three officials over heating outages south of Moscow

Authorities blamed the breakdown on failures at a boiler plant owned by a private ammunition factory. The heads of the heating plant and the factory were arrested on suspicion of providing unsafe services, investigators said in a statement.

[...]

The situation is embarrassing for authorities at a time when President Vladimir Putin is embarking on a campaign to be re-elected in March and voters are looking for assurances that the state can maintain decent living standards and public services despite the costs of the war in Ukraine.

[...]

"There has been no heating for six days already. Tomorrow will be a week," she said, adding that the electricity supply was too erratic to turn on a TV or a fridge.

Det gick visst inte så bra för Putin. Kan detta bero på att landets rörmokare befinner sig i Ukraina?

Tja, i Västeuropa talade man om den mytiske polske rörmokaren (The polish plumber) som sägs vara en av orsakerna till brexit. Men de kan nog Putin inte räkna med få hjälp av.

[Enceladus]

Det vet man ingenting om. Dessutom är inte Putin Houthi-rebellernas "skapare". Men de siktar dåligt!

Pakistan fires retaliatory strike at Iran, stoking regional tension

Iran had been flexing its muscles in the region, even before its cross-border incursion into Pakistan.

It launched strikes on Syria against what Tehran said were Islamic State sites and Iraq, where it said it had struck an Israeli espionage centre. Baghdad recalled its ambassador from Tehran.

[...]

"What will cause anxiety in Tehran is that Pakistan has crossed a line by hitting inside Iranian territory, a threshold that even the U.S. and Israel have been careful to not breach."

Det känns som att Ryssland har uppmanat sina allierade att eskalera. Iran har slagit till mot tre länder inom ett dygn. Nordkorea överger målet om återförening. Somliga experter varnar för att Kim Jong-Un har bestämt sig för att dra ut i krig. Väst verkar ha lyckats tygla Venezuela och Serbien. Kina är elefanten i rummet.

Kofman hävdar i sin senaste poddsändning att Ukrainas drönare förmodligen är bättre än Irans.

Knockoff Iranian Drone Sold on Alibaba Was Meant for War, Documents Show

Earlier this week, a Chinese manufacturer listed a knockoff of an Iranian suicide drone on Alibaba, then removed it after being contacted by Motherboard. The XHZ-50 Fixed Wing UAV was marketed for use with “survey mapping inspection,” and other models came with similar disclaimers on the e-commerce website.

[...]

A sales document about the XHZ-50, which has a 50KG payload and looks nearly identical to Iran’s Shahed-136 drone which has been used by Russia in Ukraine, described the UAV as a “suicide” weapon for use on a battlefield.

[...]

According to Lu, the drones are destined for Eastern Europe. “This item is customized for one big client in UKR [Ukraine],” he said. Motherboard sent a request for comment to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, which was not returned in time for publication.

[...]

Beijing has pledged not to sell weapons to anyone fighting the war. China is the home of DJI, one of the biggest drone makers on the planet. And though it tried to curb exports to the region, the quadcopters kept finding a way into Ukraine. “Our government don’t allow us to sell to countries involved in war,” Lu said.

Kina dominerar inte bara den globala marknaden för solceller, batterier och elbilar, utan också för drönare. För att behålla dominansen säljer Kina till Ukraina.

Det är ju tänkbart att Ernst använder detta som ett inrikespolitiskt slagträ (elektrifiering av militärfordon ligger nog rätt långt bort) mot Biden-administrationen, annars verkar Ernst, till skillnad från sin partikamrat Marjorie Taylor Greene, vara en pålitlig(?) vän till Ukraina:

Pentagon to install rooftop solar panels as part of clean energy plan

The Defense Department will install solar panels on the Pentagon, part of the Biden administration’s plan to promote clean energy and “reestablish the federal government as a sustainability leader.”

[...]

The solar panels are among several improvements set for the Pentagon, which also will install a heat pump system and solar thermal panels to reduce reliance on natural gas and fuel oil combustion systems.

Brendan Owens, assistant secretary of Defense for energy, installations and environment, said the projects will improve energy resilience and reliability at the Pentagon and other military sites in the U.S. and Germany. He called energy use “central to everything we do.’’

Däremot ska Pentagon elektrifieras. Alltså byggnaden som utgör högkvarter för USA:s försvarsdepartement. Jag antar att Pentagon inte köper från Kina!

[Enceladus]

Äntligen är Musks monopol brutet. Idag genomförde ULA framgångsrikt sin första flygning med sin nya Vulcan-raket.

Japan's SLIM moon craft short on power after successful lunar landing

Japan on Saturday became the fifth country to put a spacecraft on the moon, but solar power issues threatened to cut short the nation’s mission to prove a "precision" landing technology and revitalise a space programme that has suffered setbacks.

[...]

JAXA has twice landed on small asteroids, but unlike with an asteroid landing, the moon's gravity means the lander cannot pull up for another try, its scientists said. Three lunar missions by Japanese startup ispace, Russia's space agency and American company Astrobotic have failed in the past year.

[...]

Only four nations - the former Soviet Union, the United States, China and India - and no private company had achieved a soft landing on the moon's surface.

[...]

The precision landing "won't be a game changer", but the cost-reduction effects of it and the lightweight probe manufacturing might open up moonshots to space organisations worldwide, Bleddyn Bowen, a University of Leicester associate professor specialising in space policy, said ahead of the touchdown.

Det blev ingen månlandning för Astrobotics rymdsond Peregrine. Japan är därmed den femte nationen i världen som har framgångsrikt mjuklandat på månen.

Russian air passengers face peril as planes show strain of sanctions

Over the first eight days of December, civilian Russian airplanes experienced at least eight serious mechanical failures, terrifying many passengers as pilots were forced to make emergency landings in cities across the country.

[...]

“Of course sanctions affect flight safety,” said Russian aviation analyst Andrei Menshenin in an interview. “They can’t not affect it.” But he said Russian airlines had softened the impact by importing spare parts and even fully reconditioned engines through Central Asia, Turkey, Singapore, Iran and other countries. “The question is, what does it cost? It costs a lot.”

[...]

Even before the war, the troubled Russian-made Sukhoi Superjet, with a largely French-manufactured engine and 70 percent foreign parts, accounted for dozens of serious air incidents. But such incidents spiked after sanctions hit, according to analysts, because accessing Sukhoi parts is much more difficult than for Boeing or Airbus planes.

I december inträffade flera allvarliga mekaniska fel på ryska flygplan. Somliga flyganalytiker hävdar att det bara är en tidsfråga innan ett plan kraschlandar.

Russian oil depot on fire after attempted Ukrainian drone attack

Four oil tanks at a large storage facility in the town of Klintsy in Russia's western Bryansk region caught fire on Friday after the military brought down a Ukrainian strike drone there, Alexander Bogomaz, the regional governor, said.

[...]

Both Russia and Ukraine have targeted each other's energy infrastructure in strikes designed to disrupt supply lines and logistics and to demoralise their opponent as they try to get the edge in a nearly two-year war that shows no sign of ending.

[...]

A Ukrainian government minister was quoted by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Thursday as saying that Ukraine had hit targets in St Petersburg using a domestically produced drone that flew 1,250 km (775 miles).

Börjar Ukraina äntligen få ett övertag i drönarkriget?

Putin Orders Hunt for Property of Russian Empire, Soviet Union

Vladimir Putin is going on a property hunt, ordering officials to find Russian assets that once belonged to its former empire or were owned by the Soviet Union.

An order from the Russian president published late Thursday allocated funding for a state unit to conduct searches for property abroad and ensure Russia’s ownership rights are registered. The document didn’t indicate the size of the budget for the operation or what kinds of property are being sought.

While it’s unclear what prompted the order, Putin’s interest in former imperial possessions is unlikely to ease concerns about his ambitions among neighboring states after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended European security.

Ryska federationen är Sovjetunionens fortsättarstat, men Sovjetunionen var inte Kejsardömet Rysslands fortsättarstat. Annars kan Putin återgälda Rumänien:

So the deal was struck and the 120 tonnes of gold, valued at $5 billion today, was loaded into a train in December 1916 and sent to the Kremlin. Seven months later with the situation in Romania worsening another train would follow containing many other treasures, including ancient artifacts and art, many rare books and the royal jewels of Romania.

Of course, most who are familiar with the First World War know that something extreme happened in Russia in 1917. The failure of the military and the suffering of the people led to a populist uprising and the Tsar and his family were arrested, and eventually executed.

Imperial Russia was now Communist Russia, and the Soviets did not want to talk to Romania about their missing gold. Communications between the two countries were severed, and when after the war in 1922 Romania asked for their treasure back, they received no reply.

[Enceladus]

Möte inlett om Sveriges Natoansökan i Turkiet

Till saken hör också att det sannolikt inte kommer att fattas ett separat beslut om Sveriges Natoansökan, utan den kommer att ingå i ett stort beslutspaket med uppemot 50 lagar och bilaterala avtal med olika länder. Till exempel ingår förslag om höjda pensioner och beslut att skicka turkiska soldater till Somalia.

[...]

Om Erdogan skulle vilja fördröja Sveriges Natointräde kommer också pensionshöjningen till miljoner pensionärer att försenas. Det vore ingen bra nyhet inför de lokala valen i slutet av mars, då det är dags att välja borgmästare i turkiska städer.

[...]

På tisdagen skickade Ungerns premiärminister Viktor Orbán ett brev till statsminister Ulf Kristersson (M) där han vill att Kristersson ska komma till Budapest för vidare samtal. Tidigare har Orbán sagt att Ungern inte kommer att vara sist med att godkänna Sverige, men det nämner han inte längre.

Fredspristagaren Abiy Ahmed överväger att invadera Somalia för att upprätta en marinbas. Då blir det svårt för Erdogan att förhala ett svenskt Natointräde:

Egyptens president Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi riktar en varning till Etiopien, som vid årsskiftet slöt ett avtal med den somaliska utbrytarregionen Somaliland om tillträde till kusten och upprättandet av en etiopisk marinbas, skriver AP.

[...]

– Ingen ska försöka hota Egyptens bröder, särskilt inte om våra bröder ber oss stå vid deras sida.

Precis som al-Sisi lär Erdogan betrakta Somalias sunnimuslimska invånare som Turkiets bröder. Förutom presidentens underskrift återstår nu bara Ungern:

Ewa Stenberg: Erdogan får mycket bra betalt för sitt ja

Det största hindret i Natoprocessen är övervunnet sedan parlamentet i Ankara sagt ja till Sverige. President Erdogan får bra betalt och nu försöker Ungerns Viktor Orbán skaffa sig fördelar på liknande sätt. Men det blir betydligt svårare.

[...]

Nej, inte helt. Turkiets parlament har ställt sig bakom den svenska ansökan, vilket är ett stort och viktigt steg i Sveriges anslutningsprocess. Men president Recep Tayyip Erdogan måste skriva under beslutet för att det ska gälla. Han har 15 dagar på sig. I fallet Finland tog det bara fyra dagar, men när Nordmakedonien kom med dröjde det två veckor innan Erdogan undertecknade.

[...]

Ungern leasar svensktillverkade Jas Gripen-plan, och för närvarande omförhandlas det avtalet.

Sverige är dessutom en av de stora ägarna i Strategic Airlift Capability, ett internationellt flygsamarbete som har sina transportplan stationerade på Pápabasen i Ungern.

Förre utrikesministern och statsministern Carl Bildt (M) har tidigare föreslagit att Sverige ska ta initiativ till att flytta transportplanen från Pápa till ett mer Natolojalt land, om inte Ungern slutar att motarbeta Sverige.

Men Ungern vill förstås också ha västerländska stridsflygplan!

Drone Attacks Menace Russia’s Key Route for Exporting Oil

A second drone attack on Sunday, which an official with knowledge of the matter said was organized by Ukraine’s secret services, was more disruptive. It caused a fire that shut down a Novatek PJSC gas-condensate plant in port of Ust-Luga that supplied fuel to the Russian army, according to the official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

[...]

Keeping Russia’s oil exports steady is crucial for the Kremlin, which receives some 30% of total budget revenues from the nation’s energy industry. The flow of petrodollars is helping to finance the war in Ukraine as it nears its third year, while also funding domestic spending in the run-up to presidential elections in March.

[...]

Two major Baltic oil terminals run by state-owned Transneft PJSC — Ust-Luga and Primorsk — shipped around 1.5 million barrels a day, more than 40% of the Russia’s total seaborne crude exports on average from January to November last year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the industry data. In addition, some cargoes of Kazakh crude are also loaded at Ust-Luga.

[...]

To counter further attacks, Russia has put its key infrastructure in the Baltic Leningrad region on “high-alert mode,” according to the regional authorities.

Ryssland kan behöva flytta hem luftvärnsresurser för att skydda sin olja. Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 14 081 enheter, varav 2 661 stridsvagnar.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det största hindret i Natoprocessen är övervunnet sedan parlamentet i Ankara sagt ja till Sverige. President Erdogan får bra betalt och nu försöker Ungerns Viktor Orbán skaffa sig fördelar på liknande sätt. Men det blir betydligt svårare.

Ungern leasar svensktillverkade Jas Gripen-plan, och för närvarande omförhandlas det avtalet.

Men Ungern vill förstås också ha västerländska stridsflygplan!

Orbanien kan väl donera sina Gripen till Ukraina. Om de får nya Jas-39E istället. Fetknoppen är ju fullt mutbar.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Speaker Johnson Defies Hardline Ouster Threat on Spending Deal

US House Speaker Mike Johnson refused Friday to cave to pressure from hardline Republicans, empowering him to work with Democrats to avoid a shutdown, fund Ukraine and strike a border compromise — unless his rebellious right flank brings him down first.

[...]

Some moderate Republicans, many of whom represent areas President Joe Biden carried in 2020 and are crucial to the GOP maintaining its narrow House majority, met with Johnson before his announcement and urged him to stick with the deal.

[...]

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a hardliner from Georgia, said she would vote to oust Johnson over Ukraine funding, which she says shouldn’t be a prerequisite for strong action on border security. Ukraine spending is currently separate from the spending deal, but some lawmakers think it ultimately will be tied to a full-year funding package.

Även på andra sidan Atlanten verkar Ukraina ha funnit en oväntad allierad, nämligen representanthusets talman - en högerextrem kreationist!

Grim realization sets in over state of Ukraine war as funding fight continues in Washington (CNN)

Biden met with House and Senate lawmakers at the White House on Wednesday to outline what is at stake for Ukraine. At one point, the President turned to his national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines to lay out specific capabilities that Ukraine would run out of in the coming months, according to a White House official familiar with the meeting, who declined to get into more detail. Another official told CNN that they specifically pointed to air defense systems and artillery ammunition as examples of key capabilities that could be depleted without US support.

Biden also warned that US personnel were on the line, saying that if the Ukraine-Russia war spills over into NATO territory, the US would have to get directly involved in the conflict.

But House Speaker Mike Johnson, who along with other House Republicans has tied additional Ukraine funding to a broader immigration deal, said afterward that continuing to fund Ukraine risked turning it into a quagmire for the US akin to its two-decade war in Afghanistan.

“We cannot spend billions of dollars without a clear strategy articulated and I told the president in the meeting today again, as I’ve been saying repeatedly, ‘Sir, you have to articulate what the strategy is. What is the endgame?’” Johnson said Wednesday night in an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins.
[........ ]

Meanwhile, inside the White House, NATO headquarters and in Kyiv, there is a keen awareness that if Donald Trump is reelected in November, he will likely slash support for Kyiv.

“The number one reason Republicans will not come out in favor of a supplemental for Ukraine is they don’t want to offend candidate Trump and his supporters,” Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley said on CNN Max on Wednesday. “He’s already made it clear what he would do — the war would be over on his first day, which means Putin gets to keep the borders he has, if not more.”

Med sådana "allierade" behöver man inga fiender.

Amerikanska republikanska högerextremister kan aldrig vara Ukrainas "allierade". De har bara ett överordnat mål, Donald Trumps omval till president
(har han ändrat ändrat uppfattning sedan dess?). Allt annat är partitaktiskt manövrerande.

Observera Mike Johnsons användning av ordet "quagmire", som väl kan översättas med "gungfly" (ex.vis). Gungfly var ordet, sa Bull.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Putin och hans hantlangare vet hur man rekryterar landsförrädare: Ryska spionplanen för att få vapentåg till Ukraina att krascha (SR)

[Enceladus]

Observera Mike Johnsons användning av ordet "quagmire", som väl kan översättas med "gungfly" (ex.vis). Gungfly var ordet, sa Bull.

Är inte målet att göra kriget i Ukraina till ett nytt Afghanistan för Ryssland? Det afghansk-sovjetiska kriget bidrog på många sätt till Sovjetstatens slutliga kollaps.

Orbanien kan väl donera sina Gripen till Ukraina. Om de får nya Jas-39E istället. Fetknoppen är ju fullt mutbar.

Orbán: Ungern ska rösta om Nato så snart som möjligt

Viktor Orbán stöttar ett svenskt Natomedlemskap och kommer att arbeta för att ungerska parlamentet ska rösta igenom ansökan så snart som möjligt. Det skriver premiärministern på X efter samtal med Jens Stoltenberg.

[...]

Beskedet kommer dagen efter att det turkiska parlamentet godkände den svenska Natoansökan. Nu återstår en signering av Turkiets president och en ratificering av Ungerns parlament innan Sverige blir fullvärdig medlem i Nato.

Jag föredrar Bloombergs rubrik "Orban to Fold on Sweden’s NATO Bid After Overplaying Hand". Somliga av Orbans anhängare verkar dock inte vara så nöjda:

Sorry but it’s not good idea…it’s only another threat to Russa….

Är dessa anhängare medvetna om att Ungerns premiärminister inte representerar Ryssland?

Slovakia’s prime minister U-turns on Ukraine support during visit

Fico claimed there were only “minor” political differences with Kyiv, which were part of “political life”, adding: “We really want to assist you, we really want to help you.”

[...]

Shmyhal later said in a statement that Fico had pledged not to stop Slovak companies from supplying weapons to Ukraine and help build its defences. Bratislava will also back Kyiv’s EU membership bid and funding, the Ukrainian prime minister said.

[...]

Over the weekend, Fico questioned the sovereignty of Ukraine, claiming that it was under the “absolute influence of the United States”. He called on Kyiv to cede territory to Russia to bring the war to an end and said Slovakia would oppose Ukraine joining Nato, as such a move could trigger a third world war.

[...]

On Tuesday, Fico went even further, by suggesting there was no war happening in Kyiv at all. When asked why he was only travelling to Uzhhorod and not as far as the capital, he said: “Do you really believe there is a war in Kyiv? I hope you’re not being serious . . . Life is perfectly normal there.”

Slovakiens Fico är ännu lättare att muta, även om han måste ljuga för sina indoktrinerade väljare!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Observera Mike Johnsons användning av ordet "quagmire", som väl kan översättas med "gungfly" (ex.vis). Gungfly var ordet, sa Bull.

Är inte målet att göra kriget i Ukraina till ett nytt Afghanistan för Ryssland? Det afghansk-sovjetiska kriget bidrog på många sätt till Sovjetstatens slutliga kollaps.

Det var naturligtvis inte innebörden av Mike Johnsons yttrande, och det begriper nog Enceladus-kollektivet också om det slutar göra sig till.

Afghanistan har blivit gravplatsen för många utländska arméer.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Orbanien kan väl donera sina Gripen till Ukraina. Om de får nya Jas-39E istället. Fetknoppen är ju fullt mutbar.

Orbán: Ungern ska rösta om Nato så snart som möjligt

Viktor Orbán stöttar ett svenskt Natomedlemskap och kommer att arbeta för att ungerska parlamentet ska rösta igenom ansökan så snart som möjligt. Det skriver premiärministern på X efter samtal med Jens Stoltenberg.

[...]

Beskedet kommer dagen efter att det turkiska parlamentet godkände den svenska Natoansökan. Nu återstår en signering av Turkiets president och en ratificering av Ungerns parlament innan Sverige blir fullvärdig medlem i Nato.

Jag föredrar Bloombergs rubrik "Orban to Fold on Sweden’s NATO Bid After Overplaying Hand". Somliga av Orbans anhängare verkar dock inte vara så nöjda:

Sorry but it’s not good idea…it’s only another threat to Russa….

Är dessa anhängare medvetna om att Ungerns premiärministrar inte representerar Ryssland?

Slovakia’s prime minister U-turns on Ukraine support during visit

Fico claimed there were only “minor” political differences with Kyiv, which were part of “political life”, adding: “We really want to assist you, we really want to help you.”

[...]

Shmyhal later said in a statement that Fico had pledged not to stop Slovak companies from supplying weapons to Ukraine and help build its defences. Bratislava will also back Kyiv’s EU membership bid and funding, the Ukrainian prime minister said.

[...]

Over the weekend, Fico questioned the sovereignty of Ukraine, claiming that it was under the “absolute influence of the United States”. He called on Kyiv to cede territory to Russia to bring the war to an end and said Slovakia would oppose Ukraine joining Nato, as such a move could trigger a third world war.

[...]

On Tuesday, Fico went even further, by suggesting there was no war happening in Kyiv at all. When asked why he was only travelling to Uzhhorod and not as far as the capital, he said: “Do you really believe there is a war in Kyiv? I hope you’re not being serious . . . Life is perfectly normal there.”

Slovakiens Fico är ännu lättare att muta, även om han måste ljuga för sina indoktrinerade väljare!

Det fanns spår av ironi i mitt inlägg, men det gick tydligen Enceladus-kollektivet förbi.

Båda de där gubbarna är fö. inpiskade lögnare. Jag citerar Peter Kadhammar i Aftonbladet:

Orbán är Putins man i EU. Ingen har som Orbán sinkat EU:s solidaritetsarbete med Ukraina. Orbán har med sin korruption, sitt hat mot immigranter, sitt hat mot sexuella minoriteter, förstörelsen av medierna, sina antisemitiska kampanjer, din nationalism, sin förstörelse av rättsstaten, sina attentat mot den akademiska friheten och så vidare och så vidare, saboterat allt vad EU vill stå för. Vad Sverige vill stå för!

Samtidigt som han med den skamlöse tiggarens iver vill ha pengar, pengar och åter pengar av Europas skattebetalare.

[Enceladus]

U.S. Reenters the Nuclear Fuel Game: Centrus Energy delivers first batch of uranium that’s critical for advanced reactors

The 93 currently active nuclear-power reactors in the United States burn about 2,000 tonnes of uranium fuel each year. However, the type of uranium fuel those reactors use is not going to cut it for the advanced reactors expected to go on line in the coming years, as part of the effort to meet the country’s goal of 100 percent clean electricity by 2035. The specialized fuel these advanced reactors will need is currently made on a commercial scale only in Russia.

[...]

Less than one percent of natural uranium is U-235, the uranium isotope capable of sustaining a nuclear chain reaction. Today’s reactors use low-enriched uranium (LEU), which is almost 5 percent U-235. HALEU is enriched further to a concentration, or assay, of almost 20 percent U-235, which is still considered low-enriched compared with the 90-plus percent level that is required for weapons-grade uranium.

[...]

For now, the DOE intends to purchase about 25 tonnes of HALEU per year to kick-start the industry and give HALEU producers secure contracts from which they can expand production. “We’d like to avoid increasing our dependence on energy fuels from Russia,” Huff says. “So it’s critically important that we secure our supply of HALEU material, given the number of advanced reactors desiring to use it in the future for commercialization.”

Till råga på allt utmanas Rysslands dominans inom produktion av kärnbränsle.

The US plan to break Russia’s grip on nuclear fuel

There are only two major western suppliers of enrichment services, France’s Orano and Urenco, a UK, German and Dutch consortium. China has built enrichment capacity to meet its own needs. This leaves Russia as a dominant player, with almost half the world’s commercial capacity.

[...]

Tenex’s monopoly control of the market for high-assay low-enriched uranium (Haleu), which is more powerful than standard nuclear fuel and used in SMR reactors, is already causing problems for some US reactor projects. In December 2022 TerraPower, a company founded by Gates, announced a two-year delay to construction of a planned new 345-megawatt reactor in Wyoming, citing fuel constraints.

[...]

Nuclear exports from Russia generate just under $1bn in US sales per year, mainly in uranium, enrichment and conversion services, according to analysts. This is a fraction of the tens of billions of dollars that Russian oil and gas firms generate for the Putin regime, but the trade does leave US utilities vulnerable to sudden and lasting interruptions in supply.

“I’ve thought about it every day since even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine: the potential that Russia could at any moment cut us or our allies off from supply of this material,” says Huff.

[...]

“Nuclear technologies tend to lock in diplomatic ties in a way that other energy sources don’t. This is why we need friends and allies to build a resilient and economically efficient supply chain that can build an enduring industry,” says Book from Clearview.

Västländer har med oro sett Rosatoms expansiva export av kärnkraftverk som ett verktyg för Ryssland att öka sin geopolitiska makt. Europa är ej ute ur leken.

Growth in low-emissions power expected to cover demand - IEA

Power generated from low-emissions sources, such as wind, solar and nuclear, will be adequate to meet growth in global demand for the next three years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, adding power sector emissions are on the decline.

Following record growth, electricity generation from low-emissions sources will account for almost half of the world's power by 2026, up from less than 40% in 2023, the IEA said in report on Wednesday.

[...]

Nuclear power is also forecast to reach a record high globally as French output continues to recover from lows in 2022, several plants in Japan come back online and new reactors begin operations in markets including China, India, Korea and Europe.

Internationella energirådet (IEA) förutspår ett rekordår för kärnkraften. Brittisk kärnkraft är dock ett varnande exempel - inte minst för den svenska regeringen.

[Enceladus]

Red Cross Says Request To Visit POWs In Olenivka 'not Granted'; Terms It 'an Obligation'

Red Cross Ukraine on July 30 stated that its request to access the site where the Prisoners of War (POWs) were targetted via a missile at the Olenivka penal facility was rejected by the pro-Russian DPR authorities. In a tweet fired on Sunday, the humanitarian organisation said: "To be clear, our request to access the POWs from Olenivka penal facility yesterday has not been granted." It continued to inform that the organisation was denied access to POWs, which they wrote "is an obligation of parties to conflict under the Geneva Conventions."

Indiska Republic World rapporterar att Ryssland inte följer Genève-konventionen.

Russia accuses Ukraine of killing 65 of its own POWs by shooting down plane

Russia accused Ukraine on Wednesday of deliberately shooting down a Russian military transport plane carrying 65 captured Ukrainian soldiers to a prisoner exchange in what it called a barbaric act of terrorism that had killed a total of 74 people.

The Russian defence ministry said six Russian crew members and three Russian soldiers had been on the Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane shot down near the Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukrainian border.

[...]

The Il-76 is a military transport aircraft designed to airlift troops, cargo, military equipment and weapons. It usually has a crew of five, and can carry up to 90 passengers.

Försöker Ryssland göra en repris? Enligt uppgifter på sociala medier kom planet från Mellanöstern och dessutom sägs Rysslands lista över fångar vara falsk:

The first images that emerged from the crash site never showed a large number of bodies. Remember the MH-17 disaster? The entire field was strewn with the debris and body parts. Or recall Yevgeny Prigozhin’s business jet, much smaller in size and with fewer passengers on board – the first footage from the crash site already contained passengers’ remains.

It is also obvious that the plane was not about to land, but rather took off from Belgorod. How can you bring POWs for exchange to Belgorod if you are departing?

Then propaganda talking head Margarita Simonyan appeared with an alleged list of Ukrainian POWs bound for swap, which included Ukrainian military personnel who had already been exchanged on January 3.

It is also worth noting that that OSINT analysts confirmed the fact that the Il-76 aircraft, RA-78830, was flying to Russia via Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, then disappeared from radar somewhere near Syria, and then popped back up over Belgorod region. A very strange route for delivering captured Ukrainians. It is also known that this particular plane played an active part in the “Iranian Express” supply chain.

A question also arose regarding the Russian Ministry of Defense’s statement that only three convoy guards accompanied 65 POWs on board. This is a critically low number for such a group, which would totally violate regulations.

Ryska källor hävdar emellertid att det aktuella planet var RF-86828. Stanislav Bezzubkin uppges ha varit befälhavare, och hans fru Marika bekräftar hans död.

Claims Swirl Around Russian Il-76 Jet Crash Near Ukraine Border

Details are still very limited, but a Russian Ilyushin Il-76 Candid transport aircraft crashed today in the Belgorod region in the west of the country, bordering Ukraine. Unconfirmed reports from Russia and Ukraine claim that Ukrainian air defenses were responsible for bringing the aircraft down, but that cannot be independently verified at this stage. Russia, for its part, alleges that the aircraft was carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war when it was deliberately brought down. Ukrainian officials have cast doubt on this claim but admit that a PoW exchange had been planned for today.

[...]

However, on X, Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, cast doubt on the Russian claims of PoWs being aboard the aircraft, claiming that Russian military bloggers have confirmed that prisoners are not normally transported by aircraft in Russia, instead being transferred using rail or by road.

Gerashchenko has also claimed that the Il-76 was flying away from Belgorod when it came down, further suggesting it was not involved in bringing PoWs there, as Russia has claimed.

Vad kan ha funnits på det ryska fraktflygplanet som kraschade i närheten av samhället Jablonovo? Artikeln ger tyvärr fler frågor än svar...