dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 28 september 2023 8:45
Ja, Ilham Aliyev och Recep Tayyip Erdoğan är för sluga för Putin, som inte alls kan fylla ut Josef Stalins kläder. Ilham Aliyevs fader, den tidigare diktatorn Heydar Aliyev (1923-2003) (som behändigt nog skakade av sig sin kommunistiska övertygelse vid Sovjetunionens kollaps) var f.ö. född i Nachitjevan.
The Russo-Azerbaijani Trap and the Collapse of the Artsakh Republic
EVN Security Report skrev:In the month of September the status quo established by the Russo-Azerbaijani tandem in Nagorno-Karabakh completely disintegrated, as Baku initiated a full-scale invasion of the Armenian-populated enclave, while coordinating its operations with the Russian forces. What had been brewing since June culminated into the collapse of the Artsakh Republic, with the Russo-Azerbaijani axis having set an inescapable trap for Stepanakert. This trap, however, was designed to extend all the way to Yerevan, thus seeking to profoundly alter the geopolitical configurations in the region: the collapse of the Artsakh Republic being complimented by the collapse of democratic Armenia, with Aliyev getting Stepanakert and Putin getting Yerevan. One part of the stratagem is in the process of being realized, as the entirety of Nagorno-Karabakh is being ethnically cleansed, while Russia criticizes and mocks the collective suffering of the Armenian people. The second part of the stratagem, which accounts for Moscow’s gloating and mocking, is designed to destabilize Armenia, as the collapse of Artsakh and the massive inflow of refugees is to be complimented by Moscow activating the pro-Russia opposition with the objective of triggering a regime change. Considering the pending collapse of the South Caucasus as Russia’s southern security belt, and noting the viability of this belt being profoundly hinged on Russia’s control of Yerevan, Moscow’s endeavor remains singular: to obstruct Armenia’s Western pivot and reduce Yerevan to a subservient satellite. That the attempt to engender domestic instability failed, at the least for the moment, is indicative of Russia’s shortcomings. Nonetheless, Russia still maintains an important toolkit to harm democratic Armenia: a comprehensive hybrid warfare strategy and the use of Azerbaijan as a proxy.
Putin tänkte förråda Armenien, men istället blev det Aliyev som förrådde Putin.
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 28 september 2023 8:31
Sovjetunionens kollaps gav Turkiet ett helt annat manöverutrymme. Nu låtsas banditen Erdogans vara vän med Ukraina och förser ibland detta med lite vapen. Samtidigt är han tjenis med Vladimir Vladimirovitj Putin och destabiliserar inte bara regionen Azerbajdzjan - Armenien utan även Sverige. Genom att hålla ett brottsyndikat om ryggen som har försatt Sverige i ett tillstånd som börjar påminna om Mexicos, samtidigt som den statliga turkiska nyhetsbyrån Anadolu Agency, genom tv-kanalen Al Jazeera, orkesterar en islamististisk hatkampanj mot oss:
Gangsters Have a New Way of Avoiding Capture: Becoming Turkish
VICE skrev:Rawa Majid, known as the “Kurdish Fox,” an accused Iraqi-Kurdish drug trafficker and suspected of major crimes in Sweden, resides in Turkey after purchasing citizenship in 2020 through its so-called “Golden Passport” , which offers citizenship in exchange for $400,000 (around £320,000) in investment.
[...]
Yet European law enforcement officials, speaking to VICE World News on background because of diplomatic sensitivities, said the problem with the Turkish citizenship programme goes far beyond one Kurdish drug trafficker.
They said accused drug traffickers are increasingly turning towards Turkey, as well as the United Arab Emirates, which offers easy residency, but not citizenship, to people with large amounts of cash to invest.
Det är allmänt känt att Turkiet är ett gangsterparadis, för att parafrasera SVT:s Diamant Salihu. Men hycklaren Erdogan kräver utlämningar från Sverige.
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑onsdag 27 september 2023 11:36
Både Putin och Netanyahu tittar intresserat på. Det här skulle de ju vilja genomföra i Donbas, Zaporizjzja, Kherson och på Västbanken. Och i Moldavien också, om landet bara inte låg så långt bort, med det f-rbannade Ukraina emellan. Allt var mycket enklare före den "geopolitiska katastrofen".
Riyadh Seeks US Security Guarantees For Peace With Israel
Iran International skrev:While the Biden administration is insisting on securing some Israeli guarantees regarding concessions to Palestinians, Saudi Arabia seems less interested in tying its goals to their fortunes.
"The normalization will be between Israel and Saudi Arabia. If the Palestinians oppose it the kingdom will continue in its path," said one of the regional sources. "Saudi Arabia supports a peace plan for the Palestinians, but this time it wanted something for Saudi Arabia, not just for the Palestinians."
[...]
Although Iran re-established diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia earlier this year, top Iranian officials have been criticizing Riyadh’s plans for establishing relations with Israel as a step detrimental for the Palestinians. Tehran supports militant Palestinian groups who have intensified their attacks against Israel and its civilian population this year.
Palestinian groups such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad are parts of Iran’s militant network of proxy forces from Iraq to Lebanon and in Yemen. They receive financial and military assistance that Tehran is not reluctant to boast about.
Den geopolitiska kartan ritas om i Mellanöstern. Sunnimuslimska Palestina vänder sig till shiamuslimska Iran när Saudiarabien vänder sig till Israel.
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑fredag 29 september 2023 19:18
Kina rundar ryssarna och kilar in sig i Europa.
Gulf De-escalation and Hedging in the Shadow of US Retrenchment
The Washington Institute skrev:Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Saudi and the UAE sought a rapprochement with Iran because they had lost confidence in the US military commitment to its regional partners. Specifically, over time, a series of incidents and developments led Gulf partners to question the credibility of Washington’s implicit security guarantees. The signing of the JCPOA—which consecrated Iranian uranium enrichment—and President Obama’s subsequent musing in The Atlantic that the Saudis needed to “share the neighborhood” with Iran—were unsettling. Skepticism grew with the subsequent retrenchment of US troops and redeployment of equipment from the Arabian Peninsula, and Trump’s lack of kinetic response to high-profile attacks in 2019 on Aramco’s Abqaiq facility and the downing of a RQ-4A Global Hawk drone over the Gulf. More recently, in January 2022, the UAE was irritated by what it perceived as a lackluster Biden Administration response to a Houthi missile and drone attack on the capital, a barrage Emiratis say was their “9-11.”
Både Saudiarabien och USA är desperata. Saudiarabien vill ha säkerhetsgarantier mot Iran, och USA:s strateger är byxrädda för att Kina blir den garanten.
Understanding Russia’s War on Ukraine Starts with Understanding Russia’s Black Sea Politics
The Washington Institute skrev:Indeed, the Black Sea fleet began playing a more important role in Russia’s military strategy after the annexation of Crimea. In contrast, in late 2015, following Moscow’s military intervention in Syria, the fleet played a vital logistics role by servicing a supply route from the Black Sea to Tartus, which became known as the “Syrian Express.”
[...]
Russian efforts to deny Ukraine access to world markets, most recently by bombing the country’s Danube port, which has driven up global grain prices, impart to the West just how dominant Russia is in the Black Sea and the lengths it will go to exert its influence. What is also lost due to Western policy-makers’ singular focus on Ukraine is that Russia has also engaged over the previous months in horizontal escalation by continuously challenging the US in Syria, and France within its former colonial possessions in Africa. These actions suggest that Russia is not constrained by its war in Ukraine and that Moscow sees Ukraine and Syria as part of one larger military theatre.
[...]
The West should continue looking for ways to integrate Georgia into the West, as tricky as that task may be given its current government, especially because the Georgian people prefer that course. It should also look at the long-term with an eye towards expelling Russia from the Black Sea. This is the region where the current war in Ukraine began, and it holds the potential solution on how to best end it.
Den pro-israeliska tankesmedjan The Washington Institute förespråkar att väst tar tillbaka kontrollen över Svarta havet - och i förlängningen syriska Tartus.
