Militär teknik och Ukrainakriget

[Enceladus]

Ukraine Says It Killed Chief of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet

Ukraine’s military claimed on Monday that it had killed the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in a strike on Crimea — a blow that, if confirmed, would be among the most damaging suffered by the Russian Navy since the sinking of the fleet’s flagship last year.

Citing “new information about the losses of the enemy as a result of the special operation,” Ukraine’s special operations forces said in a statement that the strike on Friday killed 34 officers, including the fleet commander, and wounded 105 others. It did not name the naval leader, but the commander of the Black Sea Fleet is Adm. Viktor Sokolov, one of the most senior officers in Russia’s Navy.

The attack came during a meeting of Russian commanders, Ukraine’s military said, and badly damaged a headquarters of the Russian fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea. The chief of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, also told Voice of America on Saturday that the strike had badly wounded two senior Russian generals — Col. Gen. Aleksandr Romanchuk and Lieut. Gen. Oleg Tsekov. There has been no further word from either side on their condition.

[...]

The Ukrainian statement on Monday also asserted that an attack earlier this month on one of the Russian fleet’s landing ships, the Minsk, had killed 62 sailors — another claim that could not be independently verified. It did not specify a date, but on Sept. 12, a Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol damaged two navy ships, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Pro-war Russian military bloggers and the Russian news outlet Baza identified them as the Minsk and an attack submarine.

Though it remains the paramount naval power in the Black Sea, the Russian fleet there has suffered multiple setbacks. In April, 2022, Ukraine sank the Moskva cruiser, the fleet’s flagship vessel, with a missile attack. In August 2023, it used naval drones to damage a Russian warship on the far side of the Black Sea.

Crimea is central to the expansive territorial vision that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has outlined, so Moscow’s inability to protect it from strikes is an embarrassment to the Kremlin, analysts said.

Storm Shadow fortsätter att leverera! Vad är poängen med Putins krig om han inte ens kan använda Sevastopol?

M1 Abrams Tanks Have Arrived In Ukraine

The first of Ukraine’s long-awaited American-supplied M1 Abrams main battle tanks have arrived in the country, the U.S. Department of Defense has confirmed to The War Zone. While we don’t know how many of the tanks have been delivered to Ukraine at this point, Washington has committed to sending 31 of the M1A1 versions and these will surely be committed soon to Kyiv’s ongoing counteroffensive.

De av USA utlovade Abrams-stridsvagnarna har äntligen börjat anlända i Ukraina. Bättre sent än aldrig!

Russia Hanging Nets Between Lamp Posts To Counter FPV Drones

First Person View (FPV) drones have become a signature weapon of the conflict in Ukraine, and a wild video posted by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense today shows just how maneuverable these drones can be — and how hard they are to stop — while another shows the desperate measures being taken to counter them.

In the example below, we see a Ukrainian FPV 'suicide drone' fly through a forest, weaving between trees before entering a Russian dugout, where its warhead presumably detonates. Flying considerably higher, another drone then shows the apparent aftermath of what looks like a successful attack.

[...]

Like many technological aspects of this conflict, FPV drones find themselves at the center of an ongoing cat-and-mouse game between weapons development and countermeasures in Ukraine.

This is well illustrated by another video, this time from the Russian side, showing one such effort to protect against FPV drones. The video shows how Russian forces erected camouflage nets on light poles over roadways near war-torn Bakhmut to stop or otherwise deter Ukrainian FPV drones attempting to strike its vehicles on the roadway.

[...]

Not long after this video was posted, however, at least one Ukrainian drone operator figured out a simple workaround. As you can see, the Ukrainian FPV drone simply flies over the netting and into a nearby tank. While it's possible the netting in the video may have been geolocated in advance, the barrier would likely also be fairly obvious to the operator.

Drönarkriget i Ukraina kan mycket riktigt beskrivas som en katt-och-råtta-lek. För närvarande har Ukraina övertaget.

Russian Lancet flew 70 km and damaged a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter

The video clearly shows that the Lancet drone is indeed heading for a Ukrainian plane grounded on the runway. An explosion followed in the front of the plane’s fuselage. It is not clear from the smoke resulting from the explosion and from the interruption of the video, whether the drone actually inflicted damages on the MiG-29, as well as what they were.

Sprinter’s claim that the nearest Russian position was 70 km from the airport may be true, but that does not mean that the Russian Lancet actually flew that distance or longer than that.

The Russian Lancet drone is perhaps one of the few Russian weapons that have proven effective in Russia’s special military operation [a term Moscow uses instead of the war in Ukraine]. Since the beginning of this year, the Russian armed forces have increased the use of the Lancet, and the drone is reaping success.

Däremot är Ryssland näppeligen ute ur leken.

Bizarre Iranian ‘Loitering SAM’ Shown To Russian Defense Minister

The Iranian government has shown a curious "loitering" surface-to-air missile known only as the "358" to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu who is currently visiting the country. This is the first time authorities in Iran have admitted their role in designing this unusual weapon, examples of which have previously been supplied to proxy forces in Yemen and Iraq.

[...]

To date, there is no hard evidence of a 358 shooting down anything, despite reports that attempts have been made. A "United States military official said that the 358 missiles from Iran had been fired against American drones flying in Yemeni airspace," according to the 2020 New York Times report.

Iranian Back Houthi rebels have succeeded in shooting down U.S. and Saudi Arabian drones over Yemen using traditional surface-to-missiles. The group has also claimed to have shot down multiple combat jets belonging to the Saudi Arabian-led coalition over the years, including Saudi F-15s and Tornados, with various factory-produced and improvised air defense systems.

Still, the underlying concept behind the 358 missile is very intriguing. If the weapon works as described, they could be launched into forward areas where drones or helicopters are known or expected to travel through, and hunt and kill them without any need for additional advanced offboard sensors. This could be particularly useful for engaging incoming drones, which can be very hard to spot and engage with traditional air defense systems.

Frågan är om samma sak kan sägas om Iran...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

U.S. will send Ukraine long-range missiles, after delay

The Biden administration is nearing an announcement that it will provide Ukraine with a version of ATACMS long-range missiles armed with cluster bomblets rather than a single warhead, according to several people familiar with the ongoing deliberations.

[...]

The cluster-armed ATACMS, with a range of up to 190 miles, depending on the version chosen, could allow Ukraine to strike command posts, ammunition stores and logistics routes far behind Russian front lines and dug-in defenses. Ukraine, with backing from a number of U.S. lawmakers, has been asking since last year for ATACMS, which stands for Army Tactical Missile System.

[...]

But the cluster-armed version of ATACMS are more plentiful than those topped with a single — or “unitary” — warhead and are no longer considered a front-line U.S. weapon. From an estimated original production of 2,500, some from the early 1990s, an unknown number were later refitted with unitary warheads, according to a fiscal year 2018 Defense Department publication. But many of the cluster variant remain in stockpiles. Consideration of the cluster warhead ATACMS was first reported by Reuters.

USA väntas skicka en långdistansrobot till Ukraina som enligt en viss skribent inte existerar!

Biden tells Zelenskyy that U.S. will send Ukraine ATACMS long-range missiles

President Joe Biden has told his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that the United States will provide a small number of long-range missiles to aid the war with Russia, three U.S. officials and a congressional official familiar with the discussions told NBC News on Friday.

The officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly, did not say when the missiles would be delivered or when a public announcement would be made.

[...]

The White House initially withheld approval for requests for Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Howitzer artillery pieces, anti-ship missiles and HIMARS systems, but later gave the green light to them being shipped.

The latest move comes just over two months after Biden signed a presidential waiver on the transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine, despite concerns from human rights groups and some U.S. allies that their use will lead to more civilian casualties.

Bidens beslut att skicka ATACMS till Ukraina, och dessutom den klusterladdade varianten, är i praktiken officiellt.

Biden Told Zelensky U.S. Is Willing to Provide Long-Range ATACMS Missiles

President Biden has told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he is willing to provide advanced long-range, surface-to-surface missiles to help Kyiv with its counteroffensive, U.S. officials say.

Officials said that a small number of missiles from the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, will be sent in coming weeks and more could be provided later.

[...]

The U.S. provision of ATACMS could also encourage Germany to provide its Taurus long-range cruise missile. Berlin has indicated that it prefers to move with Washington in providing new types of military aid.

Ytterligare en källa bekräftar beslutet. Vidare kan det komma fler missiler i framtiden! Kommer även Taurus?

US Drops Resistance to Sending Ukraine Long-Range Missiles

The Biden administration has agreed to provide Ukraine with a limited number of long-range ATACMS missiles, following a request from President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, people familiar with the matter said.

President Joe Biden reversed his initial reluctance to provide the weapons, which Zelenskiy has repeatedly pressed for so his army can hit targets deeper in Russian-held territory. Biden informed Zelenskiy of the decision Thursday, when the Ukrainian leader was visiting Washington to make his case for more support, one of the people said.

The White House and State Department declined to comment. In a briefing Thursday, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden to date “has determined that he would not provide ATACMS, but he has also not taken it off the table in the future.”

Bara igår förnekade Sullivan att Ukraina skulle få ATACMS!

Här är det rundgång i ryktesspridningen, medierna hänvisar till varandra, och till diverse "officials". Enceceladus-kollektivet är inte bara lögnaktigt, det är fegt också eftersom skriver "en viss skribent". Men kollektivet får gärna lägga fram några belägg för att det finns operativa ATACMS M39A1. Bättre källa än "Colby Badhwar " eller WP:S påstående " But many of the cluster variant remain in stockpiles" krävs.

Militärtekniskt är det slöseri att använda ett så värdefullt vapen som ATACMS med klusterladdningar, jämfört med sprängladdning. Det är bl.a. därför efterträdarmissilen PrSM inte kommer att förses med klusterammunition.

ATACMS och PrSM fantiserade Enceladus-kollektivet om för mer än ett år sedan: viewtopic.php?p=407646#p407646

Redan då var allt "klappat och klart".

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Russia Hanging Nets Between Lamp Posts To Counter FPV Drones

First Person View (FPV) drones have become a signature weapon of the conflict in Ukraine, and a wild video posted by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense today shows just how maneuverable these drones can be — and how hard they are to stop — while another shows the desperate measures being taken to counter them.

In the example below, we see a Ukrainian FPV 'suicide drone' fly through a forest, weaving between trees before entering a Russian dugout, where its warhead presumably detonates. Flying considerably higher, another drone then shows the apparent aftermath of what looks like a successful attack.

[...]

Like many technological aspects of this conflict, FPV drones find themselves at the center of an ongoing cat-and-mouse game between weapons development and countermeasures in Ukraine.

This is well illustrated by another video, this time from the Russian side, showing one such effort to protect against FPV drones. The video shows how Russian forces erected camouflage nets on light poles over roadways near war-torn Bakhmut to stop or otherwise deter Ukrainian FPV drones attempting to strike its vehicles on the roadway.

[...]

Not long after this video was posted, however, at least one Ukrainian drone operator figured out a simple workaround. As you can see, the Ukrainian FPV drone simply flies over the netting and into a nearby tank. While it's possible the netting in the video may have been geolocated in advance, the barrier would likely also be fairly obvious to the operator.

Drönarkriget i Ukraina kan mycket riktigt beskrivas som en katt-och-råtta-lek. För närvarande har Ukraina övertaget.

Russian Lancet flew 70 km and damaged a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter

The video clearly shows that the Lancet drone is indeed heading for a Ukrainian plane grounded on the runway. An explosion followed in the front of the plane’s fuselage. It is not clear from the smoke resulting from the explosion and from the interruption of the video, whether the drone actually inflicted damages on the MiG-29, as well as what they were.

Sprinter’s claim that the nearest Russian position was 70 km from the airport may be true, but that does not mean that the Russian Lancet actually flew that distance or longer than that.

The Russian Lancet drone is perhaps one of the few Russian weapons that have proven effective in Russia’s special military operation [a term Moscow uses instead of the war in Ukraine]. Since the beginning of this year, the Russian armed forces have increased the use of the Lancet, and the drone is reaping success.

Däremot är Ryssland näppeligen ute ur leken.

Nä, det är Ryssland inte. Passiva försvarsåtgärder som skenmål och nät har vi diskuterat tidigare: viewtopic.php?p=414192#p414192
Ukraina har som bekant använt sig en del av dessa. Hur effektiva nät är beror förstås i hög grad på vilka mål som ska skyddas och hur näten kan arrangeras.

För flygbaser räcker förstås inte sådana åtgärder, och särskilt inte när F-16 börjar bli tillgängliga. Det är av yttersta vikt att de ukrainska flygbaserna får ett bättre luftförsvar. Det gäller inte minst skyddet mot mindre UAV-er som Lancet, och där är det bästa radarledda automatkanonsystem - någon som jag framhållit många gånger. Tyvärr lider Ukraina brist på sådana, inte minst för att man har många potentiella mål att skydda. Just nu är det mest fråga om den gamla luftvärnskanonvagnen Gepard, som gör en hel del nytta men inte finns tillgänglig i tillräckligt antal. Samma sak råder för den modernare tyska Skyranger samt norska CORTEX Typhon och australiska Slinger. De sistnämnda måste dessutom nytillverkas.

[Enceladus]

ATACMS och PrSM fantiserade Enceladus-kollektivet om för mer än ett år sedan: viewtopic.php?p=407646#p407646

Redan då var allt "klappat och klart".

Som bekant har Girkin visat sig vara en opålitlig källa. Vänligen sluta referera till hans teorier om ATACMS! För övrigt borde han ha åkt till Nederländerna:

According to reports, the terrorist, also known by the pseudonym “Runov,” was taken to the detention center together with Ukrainian prisoners of war from Mariupol. According to the propagandists, the attack on him occurred when Girkin went for a walk – he was allegedly beaten by a Ukrainian defender of Mariupol.

The propagandists write that this was authorized by the administration of the detention center. And one of the authors of the message expressed the opinion that Girkin may never be released from custody.

Här är en mindre opålitlig källa, om än fortfarande opålitlig: US Cluster ATACMS Could Be on Ukraine Battlefields 'Next Week': Ex-Adviser

Ukraine this week will get the green light to receive long-range U.S.-produced cluster munition rockets, according to an American campaigner central to Kyiv's missile push who has framed the weapons as a game changer for the Ukrainian war effort.

Dan Rice, a former U.S. Army officer and West Point graduate, previously served as a special adviser to Ukrainian commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhnyi, advising on the American weapons that could help turn the tide against Russia's full-scale invasion, which began February 24, 2022.

[...]

"Giving them the 20-, 28-, and 100-mile range cluster options made a perfect compromise," Rice added. "The three M26, M26A1 and M39 are all 'need to have'" weapons for the Ukrainians, he said. "I believe they will choose M26, M26A1 and M39 as a compromise for the 190-mile ATACMS."

[...]

"They are scheduled to be destroyed, so they have a book value of $0," he said. "Actually, the value is negative since the cost of destroying is significant versus shipping to Ukraine. So, the Republicans who don't want to spend on Ukraine can't really argue. It's lethal and it's free."

Den som lever får se.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Storm Shadow fortsätter att leverera! Vad är poängen med Putins krig om han inte ens kan använda Sevastopol?

Storm Shadow/SCALP EG är Ukrainas mest effektiva vapen just nu, men är besvärlig att hantera eftersom den kräver ett riskabelt flyguppdrag för Ukrainas flygvapen när den ska avfyras. Dessutom är den förbannat dyr, och det är osäkert hur många många missiler Ukraina faktiskt disponerar. Fabian Hoffmann har ju som bekant gjort uppskattningen att Ukraina förbrukar 70 missiler per månad:
viewtopic.php?p=415002#p415002

Hur många missiler, av de som faktiskt avfyras, som når fram till sina avsedda mål, och hur många som tas ned av det ryska luftförsvaret vet vi inte heller.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

ATACMS och PrSM fantiserade Enceladus-kollektivet om för mer än ett år sedan: viewtopic.php?p=407646#p407646

Redan då var allt "klappat och klart".

Som bekant har Girkin visat sig vara en opålitlig källa. Vänligen sluta referera till hans teorier om ATACMS! För övrigt borde han ha åkt till Nederländerna:

According to reports, the terrorist, also known by the pseudonym “Runov,” was taken to the detention center together with Ukrainian prisoners of war from Mariupol. According to the propagandists, the attack on him occurred when Girkin went for a walk – he was allegedly beaten by a Ukrainian defender of Mariupol.

The propagandists write that this was authorized by the administration of the detention center. And one of the authors of the message expressed the opinion that Girkin may never be released from custody.

Nej, jag är inte vänlig och jag har inte refererat till Girkin utan till ett tidigare inlägg av Enceladus-kollektivet, som Enceladus-kollektivet får stå för!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Här är en mindre opålitlig källa, om än fortfarande opålitlig: US Cluster ATACMS Could Be on Ukraine Battlefields 'Next Week': Ex-Adviser

Ukraine this week will get the green light to receive long-range U.S.-produced cluster munition rockets, according to an American campaigner central to Kyiv's missile push who has framed the weapons as a game changer for the Ukrainian war effort.

Dan Rice, a former U.S. Army officer and West Point graduate, previously served as a special adviser to Ukrainian commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhnyi, advising on the American weapons that could help turn the tide against Russia's full-scale invasion, which began February 24, 2022.

[...]

"Giving them the 20-, 28-, and 100-mile range cluster options made a perfect compromise," Rice added. "The three M26, M26A1 and M39 are all 'need to have'" weapons for the Ukrainians, he said. "I believe they will choose M26, M26A1 and M39 as a compromise for the 190-mile ATACMS."

[...]

"They are scheduled to be destroyed, so they have a book value of $0," he said. "Actually, the value is negative since the cost of destroying is significant versus shipping to Ukraine. So, the Republicans who don't want to spend on Ukraine can't really argue. It's lethal and it's free."

Den som lever får se.

Ja, just det, ja:

För övrigt är Newsweek ingen trovärdig källa.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Denmark and other countries to transfer additional 45 tanks to Ukraine

The party will include 30 Leopard 1 tanks and 15 T-72 tanks. Poulsen said Denmark buys tanks in cooperation with other countries.

[...]

This is the first time that Denmark is handing over T-72 tanks, the advantage of which is that the Ukrainian military knows how to operate them, so they do not need to undergo training.

[...]

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen explained that this package opens a "new phase" in Danish aid to Ukraine. The country gave away most of what it could give directly from its weapons stockpiles, so in the future Copenhagen plans to focus on purchases in accordance with the current needs of Ukraine together with other allies.

Danmark fortsätter att stödja Ukraina.

Norway plans to deliver about 50 tracked trucks to Ukraine

The Norwegian government has announced plans to deliver to Ukraine about 50 tracked trucks, which are designed to deliver goods to areas where there are no roads.

[...]

Such cars can manoeuvre on terrain inaccessible to wheeled vehicles. They can transport ammunition, food and water to the Ukrainian military in the field.

Norge fortsätter att stödja Ukraina.

UK pledges "tens of thousands" more artillery shells for Ukraine

"Today we’ve demonstrated the UK’s unwavering commitment to Ukraine and set out more military support, including pledging tens of thousands more artillery shells to enable Ukraine to defend itself," defence minister Grant Shapps after a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG) in Germany said.

"We have also set out how the UK will go further in the coming months in our priority support areas, including air defence and long-range strike capabilities, and training."

UK fortsätter att stödja Ukraina.

Det framgår inte med någon önskvärd tydlighet om det är fråga om nytillverkning här.

När det gäller krigets förbrukningsvara, 155mm granater, lovade ju Europa runt tidigare i år.

Nu kommer det svåra: Europe Made a Bold Pledge of Ammunition for Ukraine. Now Comes the Hard Part (N Y Times)

Investigation: EU inability to ramp up production behind acute ammunition shortages in Ukraine (Kyiv Independent)

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ett SvT-reportage visar hur ryssarna attackerar stillastående lastbilstransporter med Shahed-UAV-er: Långtradare blir måltavlor för ryska drönare
Transporterna av spannmål till Donauhamnarna verkar till stor del ske med lastbil.

Till ingens förvåning fortsätter skribentens ensidiga rapportering. Verkligheten ser dock helt annorlunda ut:

Deal or No Deal, the Calm on the Grain Exports Market Is Deceptive

De ryska drönarattackerna skapar bekymmer, men numera har Ukraina ett logistiskt övertag i spannmålsexporten. Putins villfarelser spökar som vanligt.

Ja, jag bryr mig som bekant inte om vad för slags "verklighet" Enceladus-kollektivet anser sig leva i. Att beväpnade luftanfall skapar "bekymmer" är ju bara förnamnet, oavsett vem som anses ha något "logistiskt övertag". De kan inte tänkas bort, hur hårt man än blundar. Det må vara "Putins villfarelser" men det är uppenbart att ryssarna försöker förstöra hamninfrastrukturen, senast idag:
Putin rains down hell on Ukraine's Odessa in terrifying overnight blitz on Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur - as Russian warmonger's lawless invasion grinds into its 20th month

De tappra rumänska besättningar som går in i ukrainska Donauhamnar har det inte lätt: Kaptenen: ”Jag är inte modig – jag gör bara mitt jobb”

Paradoxalt nog är risken för fartygen minst när de befinner sig under gång. Det finns inget som talar för att Shahed/Geran-UAV-erna har någon målsökare, utan de går enbart på GPS/Glonass-koordinater och har därmed små möjligheter att träffa rörliga mål (annat än av en ren slump). Och riktiga sjömålsmissiler är nog Putin ännu inte desperat nog att sätta in mot civila handelsfaryg, särskilt inte om de rör sig inom ett Nato-lands territorialvatten. Det är lastningen i de ukrainska hamnarna som är kritisk. Ukraina skulle behöva de där automatkanonerna snarast.

[Enceladus]

Bulgaria will donate S-300 malfunctioning missiles to Ukraine

As reported by Obektivno.bg, numerous key Bulgarian parties such as GERB [Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria], SDS [Union of Democratic Forces], PP [Change Continues], DB [Yes Bulgaria], and DPS [Movement for Rights and Freedoms] proposed offering additional military assistance to Ukraine. The proposed aid includes anti-aircraft-guided missiles intended for the S-300 air defense system.

[...]

While such news might usually be treated as standard, a statement by Ivaylo Mirchev, an MP from DB, stirred several inquiries. Mirchev suggested that the S-300 missiles, deemed unusable by the Bulgarian military, could essentially function as spare parts for the Ukrainians. According to Mirchev’s comments, the missiles can’t be renovated or revived in Bulgaria while the Ukrainians possess the necessary capacity to utilize them.

[...]

The Soviet 5В55Р[К] type guided anti-aircraft missile is a surface-to-air missile system designed to engage and destroy airborne targets, such as enemy aircraft or unmanned aerial vehicles [UAVs]. The missile is part of the S-300 family of air defense systems, which were widely deployed by the Soviet Union and its allies.

Bulgarien fortsätter att ställa upp för Ukraina, trots att "det är inrikespolitiskt ohållbart".

Switzerland Set to Sell Decommissioned Leopard 2 Tanks to Germany, Pending Non-transfer Assurance to Ukraine

The security commission of the House of Representatives in Switzerland has greenlighted the decommissioning of 25 tanks out of the 96 mothballed Leopard tanks. This is a prerequisite for exporting them. However, the commission has also recommended that the tanks can only be resold to the manufacturer, thus exported to Germany. This move aims to support the German military, which has been backing Ukraine with its tanks, replenishing its own depleted stock.

[...]

The issue of decommissioning and selling the tanks is a delicate one for Switzerland. On one hand, selling decommissioned tanks to a country not at war, such as Germany, does not breach Swiss neutrality. On the other hand, the nation has previously blocked similar requests, citing the need for decommissioning by the Federal Assembly first. Despite these intricacies, Switzerland’s public and political mood is increasingly shifting towards pro-Ukraine, placing pressure on the government to ease the ban on exports of Swiss weapons to war zones.

[...]

The Swiss-German deal on Leopard 2 tanks, pending a non-transfer assurance to Ukraine, is a significant move in the current geopolitical scenario. This case is a prime example of how neutrality laws and arms embargo can impact international relations and conflicts. While the deal awaits parliamentary approval, it has already sparked a debate on Switzerland’s neutrality and its role in the global security architecture.

Den strikta schweiziska neutraliteten är ökänd för sin flexibilitet. Denna gång kan Ukraina gynnas.

Our Best Look At Ukraine’s ‘Marichka’ Submarine Drone

A new video shows a prototype of a large Ukrainian drone submarine moving under its own power just under the surface of the water. Much about the design, dubbed Marichka, remains murky, but the organization behind it says it could be used to launch kamikaze attacks against ships and maritime infrastructure. This is a kind of capability that Ukraine has a clear interest in and uncrewed surface vessels have already become a key Ukrainian weapon for striking at the Russian Navy and other targets in and around the Black Sea.

AMMO Ukraine, which describes itself as a charitable foundation, posted the new video of Marichka – Ukrainian for Mary – on its social media accounts earlier today. The group has been promoting the uncrewed underwater vehicle (UUV), and soliciting investments and donations to support its development, since August. This followed a separate group, called Brave-1, unveiling a planned family of smaller kamikaze UUVs, known as Toloka, earlier in the year.

[...]

AMMO Ukraine has claimed in the past that Marichka has a maximum range of 621 miles (1,000 kilometers). If true, the drone submarine could one-way trips to virtually any point in the Black Sea from ports in western Ukraine. Suitable motherships at sea could be used to launch the UUV closer to its destination or from more unexpected vectors.

The unit cost is expected to be approximately 16 million Ukrainian hryvnia, or just under $433,421 at the rate of exchange at the time of writing, according to AMMO Ukraine.

Dessutom har Ukraina presenterat sin senaste UUV - billigare än en missil, men med bättre räckvidd. Hur mycket kostar moderna torpeder?

Alleged attack on occupied Sorokyne, Luhansk Oblast, causes explosions, secondary detonations (video)

On 25 September, the occupied Sorokyne (formerly known as Krasnodon) in Luhansk Oblast saw massive explosions after the Yunist plant was hit, where Russians have been storing ammunition and equipment since 2014, according to Liga sources in the city.

Sorokyne is located more than 120 kilometers behind the frontlines, kilometers away from the Russian border.

Drönare borde inte kunna orsaka en så kraftig explosion. Kan det vara GLSDB som spökar?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Bulgaria will donate S-300 malfunctioning missiles to Ukraine[

As reported by Obektivno.bg, numerous key Bulgarian parties such as GERB [Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria], SDS [Union of Democratic Forces], PP [Change Continues], DB [Yes Bulgaria], and DPS [Movement for Rights and Freedoms] proposed offering additional military assistance to Ukraine. The proposed aid includes anti-aircraft-guided missiles intended for the S-300 air defense system.

[...]

While such news might usually be treated as standard, a statement by Ivaylo Mirchev, an MP from DB, stirred several inquiries. Mirchev suggested that the S-300 missiles, deemed unusable by the Bulgarian military, could essentially function as spare parts for the Ukrainians. According to Mirchev’s comments, the missiles can’t be renovated or revived in Bulgaria while the Ukrainians possess the necessary capacity to utilize them.

[...]

The Soviet 5В55Р[К] type guided anti-aircraft missile is a surface-to-air missile system designed to engage and destroy airborne targets, such as enemy aircraft or unmanned aerial vehicles [UAVs]. The missile is part of the S-300 family of air defense systems, which were widely deployed by the Soviet Union and its allies.

Bulgarien fortsätter att ställa upp för Ukraina, trots att "det är inrikespolitiskt ohållbart".

Typiskt Enceladus-kollektivet att vilseleda på detta sätt. Såhär skrev jag:

Bulgariens vapenexport exploderar i volym. Jag har dock hört att detta är "inrikespolitiskt ohållbart"...

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 11 272 enheter, varav 2 146 stridsvagnar, 84 flygplan, 100 helikoptrar, 12 strids- och 259 spaningsdrönare. Lägg därtill 958 artilleripjäser (260 dragna, 458 självgående samt 240 raketiska), en väsentlig ökning jämfört med tidigare. Bevisligen tryter utrustningen:

Russia removed many BMP-1's from the 227 military equipment storage and repair base the last months, and now Ukraine is speedrunning their destruction.

Sovjetunionen var en supermakt som ägnade decennier åt att bygga upp en gigantisk vapenarsenal. Ryssland är inte Sovjetunionen. De kolossala förlusterna är oersättliga och på sikt ohållbara. För varje dag blir Ryssland svagare. Till skillnad från Ukraina får Ryssland inte heller stöd från länder som Bulgarien...

Det där är en ren lögn. Jag har aldrig kommenterat Bulgariens faktiska stöd till Ukraina, däremot har jag sagt att det är inrikespolitiskt ohållbart på sikt om landets president och regering befinner sig på kollisionskurs beträffande den förda utrikespolitiken. Det samma gäller också ex.vis Kroatien.

Det tror jag alla som tänker efter lite klarar av att inse. T.o.m. Enceladus-kollektivet borde klara det, om än med en viss ansträngning kanske. Eller också är det viljan som saknas, snarare än förmågan!

PS. Vad som framförs på twitter-kloaken är aldrig "bevisligen".

Dels är det, än så länge, ett initiativ i Bulgariens parlament, inte mer. Dessutom är det fråga om missiler som i huvudsak ska kunna användas som reservdelsförråd, även om Ukraina möjligen har verkstadskapacitet att renovera dessa för operativt bruk.

Artikelförfattaren, Boyko Nikolov, betraktar jag inte som fullt pålitlig: viewtopic.php?p=414569#p414569

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Alleged attack on occupied Sorokyne, Luhansk Oblast, causes explosions, secondary detonations (video)

On 25 September, the occupied Sorokyne (formerly known as Krasnodon) in Luhansk Oblast saw massive explosions after the Yunist plant was hit, where Russians have been storing ammunition and equipment since 2014, according to Liga sources in the city.

Sorokyne is located more than 120 kilometers behind the frontlines, kilometers away from the Russian border.

Drönare borde inte kunna orsaka en så kraftig explosion. Kan det vara GLSDB som spökar?

Det beror sig la på det, som de säger i Göteborg. Det är mycket svårt att utifrån en bild/film från en explosion avgöra storleken på sprängladdningen.

Glidflygbomben GBU-39/B, som är själva vapendelen i en GLSDB-missil, väger totalt 129 kg., med en stridsladdning på 93 kg. Av denna vikt utgör endast 16 kg. sprängämne. Boeing tillverkade också en variant GBU-39/A/B FLM med en större stridsladdning. Det finns inget som tyder på att den varianten av GBU-39 är aktuell för GLSDB: https://www.boeing.co.kr/resources/ko_K ... /GLSDB.pdf

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

De tappra rumänska besättningar som går in i ukrainska Donauhamnar har det inte lätt: Kaptenen: ”Jag är inte modig – jag gör bara mitt jobb”

Paradoxalt nog är risken för fartygen minst när de befinner sig under gång. Det finns inget som talar för att Shahed/Geran-UAV-erna har någon målsökare, utan de går enbart på GPS/Glonass-koordinater och har därmed små möjligheter att träffa rörliga mål (annat än av en ren slump). Och riktiga sjömålsmissiler är nog Putin ännu inte desperat nog att sätta in mot civila handelsfaryg, särskilt inte om de rör sig inom ett Nato-lands territorialvatten. Det är lastningen i de ukrainska hamnarna som är kritisk. Ukraina skulle behöva de där automatkanonerna snarast.

Enligt uppgift från SvT har rumänsk polis begränsat flodtrafiken på Donau:
Rumänien stoppar färjor efter rysk beskjutning (SvT)
Russian drone strikes on Odesa region hit port area and cut ferry service to Romania (AP)

Videoklippet i SvT-notisen visar ett ryskt Shahed-136-anfall mot en ukrainsk flodhamn. filmat från den rumänska sidan. Man hör vrålet från Shahed-UAV-erna och ser explosionerna vid nedslagsplatserna, liksom att det ukrainska luftförsvaret skjuter med allt vad tygen håller. Däremot hör man nästan ingenting alls av de korta intensiva eldskurar som utmärker radarledda automatkanonsystem. Jmfr. https://twitter.com/Ma_Heller/status/15 ... 0731405312

Här är f.ö. lite anti-ukrainsk propaganda från Orbanien, tidigare i år, i detta ämne, där en av Orbans propagandakanaler försöker underblåsa motsättningar mellan Rumänien och Ukraina: Hungary is not the Only One Clashing with Kyiv — Romania Criticises Ukraine for Dredging of Danube Delta

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ukraina har genomfört en studie som visar att elektronikkomponenter som behövs i Shahed-136-UAV-erna fortfarande letar sig in till Ryssland och/eller Iran:
Revealed: Europe’s role in the making of Russia killer drones

Ryssarna bränner bort tillverkarbeteckningarna på elektronikkretsarna med laser. Finns tydligen (för) många som vill vara gulaschbaroner och samverka med ryska GRU. Och GRU vet var de har sina smuggelvägar:

Customs information is said by the Ukrainian report to show that “almost all the imports to Iran originated from Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam and Costa Rica”.

Ukraina har jobbat ganska ingående på att avslöja ovanstående: The Ukrainian experts dismantling bombs for clues to Putin’s arms supply

[Enceladus]

Enligt uppgift från SvT har rumänsk polis begränsat flodtrafiken på Donau:

US Deploys F-16s to Help Romania Enforce ‘No-Fly’ Zone, Beef Up Black Sea Ops Vs Russia

Four US Air Force F-16 fighter jets arrived at Fetesti Air Base in Romania on Sep. 22, to “further enhance NATO air policing in the Black Sea region,” a North Atlantic Alliance statement said.

[...]

On March 14 a Russian air force Su-27 accidentally collided with a US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper, drone in international air space some 100 kilometers south-west of Crimea resulting in its destruction. Notwithstanding NATO’s Article 5 which would allow the alliance to respond with military force against attacks on NATO units and personnel, the incident was downplayed in both Moscow and Washington.

Almost exactly a year earlier, on Sep. 29 2022, a Russian Su-27 intending to shoot to kill fired two missiles against an unarmed Royal Air Force RC-135 flying over the Black Sea, but both weapons malfunctioned, according to a BBC report.

USA:s flygvapen garanterar säkerheten! Däremot ökar risken för fler incidenter i området...

Cargo vessel sets off from Ukrainian Black Sea port - source

A cargo vessel set off from a Ukrainian Black Sea port on Tuesday after loading but remained close to the port, an industry source said, without giving any further details.

[...]

Two bulk carriers left the port of Chornomorsk last week via the humanitarian corridor.

Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said last week that three cargo ships were heading towards Ukrainian Black Sea ports for further food and steel exports.

He identified them as the bulk carriers Azara, Ying Hao 01 and Eneida, and said they were due to load 127,000 metric tons of agricultural products and iron ore for China, Egypt and Spain.

Vad hände med den ryska blockaden mot de tre ukrainska hamnarna i Odesa, Juzjne och Tjornomorsk vid Svarta havet? Storm Shadow eliminerade alla hot!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Enligt uppgift från SvT har rumänsk polis begränsat flodtrafiken på Donau:

US Deploys F-16s to Help Romania Enforce ‘No-Fly’ Zone, Beef Up Black Sea Ops Vs Russia

Four US Air Force F-16 fighter jets arrived at Fetesti Air Base in Romania on Sep. 22, to “further enhance NATO air policing in the Black Sea region,” a North Atlantic Alliance statement said.

[...]

On March 14 a Russian air force Su-27 accidentally collided with a US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper, drone in international air space some 100 kilometers south-west of Crimea resulting in its destruction. Notwithstanding NATO’s Article 5 which would allow the alliance to respond with military force against attacks on NATO units and personnel, the incident was downplayed in both Moscow and Washington.

Almost exactly a year earlier, on Sep. 29 2022, a Russian Su-27 intending to shoot to kill fired two missiles against an unarmed Royal Air Force RC-135 flying over the Black Sea, but both weapons malfunctioned, according to a BBC report.

USA:s flygvapen garanterar säkerheten! Däremot ökar risken för fler incidenter i området...

Ja, det är nästan nödvändigt för Nato att visa att några ryska kränkningar av ett Nato-lands territorium inte kommer att tolereras. Särskilt gäller att få Putin et al. att förstå, för den händelse de skulle umgås med sådana tankar, att det inte är någon bra idé att angripa handelsfartyg i Svarta Havet med vapenverkan.

Obehagligt när situationen trappas upp på detta sätt, även om ansvaret för detta helt och hållet faller på Vladimir Vladimirovitj Putin.

PS. F-16?

Four US Air Force F-16 fighter jets arrived at Fetesti Air Base in Romania on Sep. 22, to “further enhance NATO air policing in the Black Sea region,” a North Atlantic Alliance statement said.

Images published by NATO showed what appeared to be four late-model F-16C Block 50 fighters apparently configured for extended air superiority operations with each aircraft carrying auxiliary fuel tanks, twin AAMRAM/AIM-120 long-range missiles, and four AIM-9 medium-range missiles.

Det är tveksamt om beväpningen utgörs av den senaste varianten av jaktmissilen AAMRAM, AIM-120 D-3. AIM-9 Sidewinder är en mera korträckviddig, värmemålsökande jaktmissil. Den kan jämföras med den ryska Vympel R-73.

Då kanske några förbindelseofficerare från Ukrainas flygvapen kan bekanta sig lite mer med flygplanstypen. F-16C Block 50 är dock inte den mest moderna varianten: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_D ... n_variants

Fetisti air base reportedly will be the selected by NATO states for the training of Ukrainian pilots on United States-made F-16 fighter jets. The training according to official announcements was set to being in August. Officials in Kyiv have said that the Ukrainian pilots undergoing training in Romania would not participate in any NATO actions taken against Russian violations of Romanian air space from within Ukraine.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Cargo vessel sets off from Ukrainian Black Sea port - source

A cargo vessel set off from a Ukrainian Black Sea port on Tuesday after loading but remained close to the port, an industry source said, without giving any further details.

[...]

Two bulk carriers left the port of Chornomorsk last week via the humanitarian corridor.

Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said last week that three cargo ships were heading towards Ukrainian Black Sea ports for further food and steel exports.

He identified them as the bulk carriers Azara, Ying Hao 01 and Eneida, and said they were due to load 127,000 metric tons of agricultural products and iron ore for China, Egypt and Spain.

Vad hände med den ryska blockaden mot de tre ukrainska hamnarna i Odesa, Juzjne och Tjornomorsk vid Svarta havet? Storm Shadow eliminerade alla hot!

Vad som hände? Det beskrev jag ju redan här: viewtopic.php?p=415795#p415795

Storm Shadow/SCALP EG av underordnad betydelse just här (annat än indirekt, genom angreppen mot Krim). Som jag skrev är det i första hand det ukrainska kustartilleriet, beväpnat med RB 17, RGM-84 Harpoon och R-360 Neptune som håller ryssarna borta. Däremot behöver de ukrainska hamnarnas luftförsvar stärkas, egentligen i alla skikt.

Odessa betraktar ryssarna troligen som det mest "värdefulla" målet och är beredda att angripa det med tunga missiler Raduga Kh-22 och P-800 Oniks. Bekämpning av dessa kräver kvalificerade LV-system som Patriot och SAMP/T.

[Enceladus]

Odessa betraktar ryssarna troligen som det mest "värdefulla" målet och är beredda att angripa det med tunga missiler Raduga Kh-22 och P-800 Oniks. Bekämpning av dessa kräver kvalificerade LV-system som Patriot och SAMP/T.

Ryssland verkar ha använt olika missiler i flera vågor: först Kalibr, därefter Shaded och slutligen Oniks. De avfyrades dock i omvänd ordning!

Det beror sig la på det, som de säger i Göteborg. Det är mycket svårt att utifrån en bild/film från en explosion avgöra storleken på sprängladdningen.

Här är en ny film av explosionen i Krasnodon. Ryssland påstår att det var Storm Shadow.

Senate bill to block shutdown funds Ukraine aid, Columbia-class sub

Senate appropriators have released a bipartisan stopgap funding bill that would avert a government shutdown through Nov. 17, while providing military aid to Ukraine and allow the Defense Department to obligate money to begin construction of the Columbia-class submarine.

[...]

The Senate bill would provide nearly $4.5 billion in emergency funding for the Defense Department to “respond to the situation in Ukraine and to refill U.S. military inventory,” according to a summary released by Senate Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray (D-WA).

[...]

The bill would also allow DOD to spend money on the Columbia-class submarine program, which the White House has said it needed to avoid a 20-month program delay. Typically, a CR prohibits DOD from increasing weapons production or beginning new programs.

Hur viktig är utvecklingen av kärnkraftsdrivna ubåtar för Trump-falangen?

Hungary is to receive the new Rheinmetall Panther tank

According to plans, the so-called “Main Ground Combat System” tank (MGCS) will not be introduced until the middle of the next decade. The Panther, Papperger already emphasized, is already available. However, the vehicle is not fully developed. For example, the main battle tank needs a new chassis, as it is currently based on that of its competitor Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW).

Work on the Panther is to begin in cooperation with Hungary. As things stand, Viktor Orban 's government is expected to pay Rheinmetall around 300 million euros, according to sources in the circles. Rheinmetall declined to comment.

[...]

With Panther, Rheinmetall is relying on a partner who sometimes causes considerable political controversy. At the beginning of the week, Orban opposed Sweden's rapid admission to NATO. “Nothing threatens Sweden’s security,” he said in the Hungarian parliament on Monday. The trigger was videos from 2019 that were shown in schools in Sweden. Among other things, there was talk of Hungary's “democratic decline”.

Orban's government also puts pressure on the alliance when it comes to decisions at EU level where the unanimity principle applies. Hungary, for example, regularly threatens to veto the extension of EU sanctions against Russia. In this way, Orban is trying to extort concessions from the EU, but with no apparent success.

Som bekant planerar Rheinmetall att tillverka hypermoderna Panther KF51 i Ukraina. Är Orban en räddare i nöden eller försöker han sätta käppar i hjulet?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Odessa betraktar ryssarna troligen som det mest "värdefulla" målet och är beredda att angripa det med tunga missiler Raduga Kh-22 och P-800 Oniks. Bekämpning av dessa kräver kvalificerade LV-system som Patriot och SAMP/T.

Ryssland verkar ha använt olika missiler i flera vågor: först Kalibr, därefter Shaded och slutligen Oniks. De avfyrades dock i omvänd ordning!

Ja, komplexa attacker med olika attackvektorer är helt förväntat, och har använts flera gånger förut. Som framgår av kartan, hämtad från Enceladus-kollektivets referens (och något beskuren av mig), ser man de ungefärliga angreppsvägarna. Om dessa uppgifter är autentiska är klockslagen möjligtvis hämtade från ukrainska radarobservationer. Rött är alltså Kalibr-missiler, violett P-800 Oniks-missiler och gult Shahed-136-UAV-er. Kalibr och Oniks bör i så fall vara avfyrade från fartygsplattformar ute i Svarta Havet. Om kartbilden är något så när skalenligt bör dessa ha varit inom skotthåll för Ukrainas kustartilleri, vilket tyder på att ryska ubåtar använts. Shahed-136-UAV-erna avfyrades förstås från närmaste ockuperade landområde, och några gick - närmast i förbifarten, som det verkar, mot Donau-hamnarna. Kalibr och Oniks är svårbekämpade, den sistnämnda är som bekant en överljudsmissil och kräver kvalificerade LV-system. Kalibr rör sig i planflykt med Mach 0,8 (~ 950 km/tim) men påstås kunna använda över hundra olika waypoints i sin färdväg mot målet. Ev. kan dessa ändras under pågående färd. Missilen kan givetvis beväpnas med kärnstridsladdning. oklart med vilken sprängstyrka.

Syftet är förstås att "mätta" det ukrainska luftförsvaret. Jag skrev om detta i våras, då specifikt om ryssarnas försök att slå ut ett Patriot-batteri:

So Patriot was always going to be under direct attack just as soon as it arrived and its location was ascertained by Russia. Its radars put out a massive electromagnetic signature that is not hard to detect and geolocate. Even the most nimble configuration of the Patriot system is also quite static and it takes time to move from one location to another. Multiple types of other intelligence, from satellite imagery to informants on the ground, can help geolocate such a large layout in near-real time.

There simply was no doubt that these batteries would become absolute missile magnets, not just for their capabilities and overt value, but also for what they symbolize — increasing support from the U.S. and its allies for Ukraine via donation of advanced weapons.
[...]

As I stated last night, Russia is doing exactly what we always expected it to do. It would start with basic attempts at taking out the Patriot battery, usually by targeting its radar, with as few advanced weapons as possible. This is precisely what we have seen them attempt to do. Once that didn’t work, they would layer in multiple threats from different attack vectors, which would include air-breathing and ballistic types. So Shahed-136s, various cruise missiles, and Kinzhal and Iskander-Ms, all attacking in a coordinated and well-timed manner in an attempt to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defense network, and especially the Patriot itself.

Just det, ryssarna gör vad som förväntas av dem - mer och mer komplexa attacker, exakt som jag förutsade. Ukraina kommer att få ett bra luftförsvar först när man gjort sig av med det sovjetiska skräpet och skapat ett skiktat luftförsvar med USA/Natovapen, från high-end som Patriot eller SAMP/T och medium-range som NASAMS och Iris-T SLM, korträckviddiga system som Avenger, Crotale och Iris-T SLS till automatkanonsystem som Gepard, Skyranger och Skynex. Det är ingen liten omställning!

I en konfrontation med Nato räknar ryssarna med att kunna skicka iväg ett gäng ubåtsbaserade och kärnladdade Kalibr mot USA:s östkust:


Det räcker med om kärnladdningarna är "taktiska" (20 - 100 kiloton), något som ryssarna har gott om - till skillnad från USA som nästan helt saknar sådana (endast flygbomben B61 och kryssningsmissilen AGM-86B ALCM, ingående i bombplanet B-52s beväpning, med en sprängstyrka på upp till 150 kiloton).

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Som bekant planerar Rheinmetall att tillverka hypermoderna Panther KF51 i Ukraina. Är Orban en räddare i nöden eller försöker han sätta käppar i hjulet?

En tillverkningslinje i Ukraina kommer nog att dröja. Det finns inget som talar för att uppgifterna från i mars i år, att en tillverkningslinje i Ukraina skulle kunna sättas upp först efter kriget, har ändrats: viewtopic.php?p=412762#p412762

Och Ukraina gör nog klokast i att inte lita alltför mycket på Orbanien. Som jag skrev tidigare har Rheinmetall redan en produktionsenhet i landet : viewtopic.php?p=411720#p411720
För Orbaniens behov, fattas bara annat.

Och hur var det nu igen, är Panther KF51 en pappersprodukt eller ej?

Repair, replace, reimburse: Sustaining a European tank coalition for Ukraine

Over the long term, additional vehicles can only be built for Ukraine if countries procure new Leopard 2A7 tanks to phase out – and donate – older vehicles. The current delivery time for a new Leopard tank is three years, and even then they are able to arrive only at a rate of two per month. Larger orders could shorten these timelines and increase overall production capacity. At the moment, the production of Leopards is kept alive by a Hungarian order for 44 new tanks. Norway plans to order 54 new Leopard 2A7, while the Czech Republic is considering a purchase. The German Bundeswehr recently opted for brand new hulls to expand its fleet of Leopard 2A7 instead of modernising older vehicles because the latter would have been too costly and complicated as their hulls are ageing. However, the 68 Leopard 2A4 and 16 Leopard 2A6 that Berlin was originally considering for this modernisation programme could be refurbished instead – Ukraine does not need them to last for decades when the immediate requirement is for combat-ready tanks. The same is true for other countries that operate older versions of the tank and are considering updating them. The European Commission last year proposed a €500m fund to assist common defence procurements. A large, joint order for new Leopard 2A7 could leverage these funds. Political coordination on all these matters is required; given that the Leopard is a German tank built by German industry, Berlin should take on this role.

Gustav Gressel et al. föreslår att Tyskland gör en stor beställning av den senaste versionen av stridsvagnen Leopard 2 för att ersätta gamla stridsvagnar i Europa som kan skickas till Ukraina. Detta skulle även motverka den ökande konkurrensen från Sydkorea och USA. Det paneuropeiska stridsvagnsprojektet MGCS ligger för långt in i framtiden. Rheinmetalls Panther KF51 verkar betraktas som en pappersprodukt, inte helt olikt dess ryska motsvarighet.