Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Odd]

IMG_4719.jpeg (157.5 KiB) Visad 863 gånger

Det var en ny variant. Jag trodde han skulle ”råka” falla utför en trappa eller nån liknande ”olyckshändelse”. Men det kanske är logiskt, Putin var helt enkelt tvungen att göra nåt åt honom…

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ja, vad gjorde egentligen karln i Ryssland? Han skulle ju vara i Afrika.

Som jag skrev tidigare så är flygolyckor - i förekommande fall - praktiska. Nu strök ju även en del andra personer med, men ett visst svinn får man räkna med.

[Enceladus]

Jaha, har Putin gjort sig av med Prigozhin också?

Wagner chief Prigozhin confirmed on board of crashed Russian jet

Sources close to him, including Prigozhin's press secretary, told media they couldn't get in touch with him after the crash. Russian journalist Andrey Zakharov cited sources confirming that Prigozhin flew from Africa to Russia on Wednesday. They added "it would be a miracle" if he wasn't on board of the crashed jet together with the entire leadership of the Wagner group.

[...]

Several Telegram channels reported that the jet was shot down by air defense system. Another version is a terror attack on board. The reports also said that Prigozhin's "right hand" in the Wagner group, Dmitry Utkin, after whose call name the group received its "musical" name, was also killed in the crash.

Inte bara Prigozjin, utan även Utkin! Grozev hade alltså rätt ännu en gång (han förutspådde som bekant också själva Wagnerupproret):

Grozev förutspår att Putin och Prigozjin inte är klara med varandra.

Gjorde Ukraina rätt i att nöta ut Wagnergruppen i köttkvarnen Bachmut?

Tja, man väljer ju vad man vill tro på.

Ukraine forces raise national flag in Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia region

Ukrainian forces have raised the national flag in the settlement of Robotyne in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, Kyiv's military said on Wednesday, though it was not clear whether the entire community had been liberated from Russian forces.

Ifrågasätter skribenten fortfarande att Robotyne har befriats?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ifrågasätter skribenten fortfarande att Robotyne har befriats?

Det föreligger någon form av vanföreställning här. Jag har överhuvud taget inte kommenterat krigsförloppet eller "ifrågasatt" någonting.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Den högerextreme republikanske senatorn Tommy Tuberville kopplar ihop utnämningen av nya chefer för armén och marinkåren med abortfrågan och blockerar den förstnämnda. GOP splits further over Tuberville’s military blockade as it stretches through summer (Politico)

Tuberville har vissa åsikter om Ukraina också: Alabama Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville says Ukraine CAN'T win the war because they are a 'junior high team playing a college team'

Tydligen har inte USA:s regering ensam utnämningsmakt, utan alla högre poster måste godkännas av Senaten. Följaktligen saknar dessa försvargrenar just nu chefer:
Pentagon warns of disruptions as Army, Marines both lack confirmed leaders for first time

Aborträtten och HBT-personers rättigheter är lackmuspapper för fascism.

[Enceladus]

Ifrågasätter skribenten fortfarande att Robotyne har befriats?

Det föreligger någon form av vanföreställning här. Jag har överhuvud taget inte kommenterat krigsförloppet eller "ifrågasatt" någonting.

Enligt uppgift fortsätter Ukraina att avancera mot Novoprokopivka.

North Korea says its 2nd attempt to launch a spy satellite has failed, vows 3rd try

North Korea said Thursday that its second attempt to launch a spy satellite failed again but vowed to make another attempt in October, demonstrating willingness to endure flops to acquire a key military asset coveted by leader Kim Jong Un.

[...]

South Korea’s military recovered some of the debris after the first launch and said in early July that the North Korean satellite wasn’t advanced enough to conduct military reconnaissance. Some civilian experts said the spy satellite earlier disclosed by the North’s state media were likely capable of detecting only big targets like warships or planes. They said by having several such satellites, North Korea could still observe South Korea at all times.

South Korean officials said they began work to retrieve the wreckage after Thursday’s launch as well.

Kärnvapen och rymdraketer - Nordkorea har kommit ikapp till 1950-talet. Landar Nordkorea på månen innan Ryssland? Underskatta inte landets uthållighet!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

North Korea says its 2nd attempt to launch a spy satellite has failed, vows 3rd try

North Korea said Thursday that its second attempt to launch a spy satellite failed again but vowed to make another attempt in October, demonstrating willingness to endure flops to acquire a key military asset coveted by leader Kim Jong Un.

[...]

South Korea’s military recovered some of the debris after the first launch and said in early July that the North Korean satellite wasn’t advanced enough to conduct military reconnaissance. Some civilian experts said the spy satellite earlier disclosed by the North’s state media were likely capable of detecting only big targets like warships or planes. They said by having several such satellites, North Korea could still observe South Korea at all times.

South Korean officials said they began work to retrieve the wreckage after Thursday’s launch as well.

Kärnvapen och rymdraketer - Nordkorea har kommit ikapp till 1950-talet. Landar Nordkorea på månen innan Ryssland? Underskatta inte landets uthållighet!

Om inte befolkningen har svultit ihjäl först

[Enceladus]

Early Intelligence Suggests Prigozhin Was Assassinated, U.S. Officials Say

The plane carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner paramilitary group, crashed as the result of an assassination plot but doesn’t appear to have been shot down by a surface-to-air missile, U.S. officials said.

The preliminary U.S. government assessments, which officials stressed are incomplete, suggest that a bomb exploded on the aircraft or that some other form of sabotage caused the crash northwest of Moscow.

Enligt vissa källor inom den amerikanska försvarsmakten kraschade planet på grund av en explosion. Explosionen kan ha fått en vinge på planet att lossna.

US officials see missile strike, other theories, behind crash of Prigozhin plane

Two U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that it was likely a surface-to-air missile originating from inside Russia likely shot down the plane

The officials stressed that the information was still preliminary and under review, and did not rule out a change to the assessment.

The Wall Street Journal on Thursday reported a different theory: that a bomb aboard the aircraft or some other sabotage caused the crash.

Enligt andra källor inom den amerikanska försvarsmakten det rör sig om en nedskjutning med en luftvärnsrobot. En bomb hade skapat ett svart rökmoln.

US has not seen indications a missile downed Prigozhin’s plane, officials say

On Thursday, Putin expressed his “sincere condolences to the families of all the victims” of the crash. He said had known Prigozhin since the early 90s and that he was a “talented businessman.”

[...]

“In my experience, Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback. So I would be surprised if Prigozhin escapes further retribution for this. So in that sense, the president’s right. If I were Prigozhin, I wouldn’t fire my food taster,” Burns said in July.

“If I were Mr. Prigozhin, I would remain very concerned. NATO has an open-door policy; Russia has an open-windows policy,” Blinken also said in July.

Putin bryter alltid avtal. Det finns absolut inget i hans politiska gärning som visar att han någonsin har respekterat ett ingått avtal. Kan Prigozjin ersättas?

Putin’s Deadly Revenge on Prigozhin

Various social-media accounts linked to Wagner suggest that acts of revenge will follow the deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin and other Wagner members, but this seems unlikely. For all the distrust and even contempt of the way that the Russian military has prosecuted the war in Ukraine—a complaint that became Prigozhin’s signal issue and has now spread throughout the armed forces, security services, and even society at large—Prigozhin never managed to turn his profile and burgeoning popularity into a coherent movement. The public won’t mourn him, and the remaining Wagner commanders will likely understand the lesson of Prigozhin’s killing clearly enough. In any case, Wagner turned over much of its heavy weaponry to the defense ministry, and its fighters are now scattered across Belarus, Russia, and a handful of African countries. Its operations will be absorbed by Russian oligarchs eager to get into the mercenary business and by various arms of the Russian military and intelligence services. In short, a mutiny 2.0 is unlikely, at least not yet, and not because of Prigozhin’s death alone.

I reached Marat Gabidullin, a former Wagner commander who fought in a number of campaigns with the group in Syria and later wrote a book about his experiences. He left Wagner several years ago, before the Ukraine war, but retains connections with some of its fighters. “They are confused, at a loss,” he said of his conversations with his contacts in the wake of Prigozhin’s and Utkin’s apparent deaths. He didn’t expect major protests or discontent from within Wagner’s ranks. “They will serve the one who pays them,” he said. But, he added, the future of the company’s missions abroad may soon come under pressure. If Wagner has been largely absent from the Ukrainian front in recent months, in Africa, its mercenaries represent the largest and most influential Russian presence. “Without the tandem of Prigozhin and Utkin,” Gabidullin said, “how dedicated will everyone else remain?”

[...]

But Prigozhin’s fate is ultimately of limited significance to Putin’s political survival. It was a settling of scores that may work to keep people in line for a bit, but doesn’t address the deeper sources of stress to the system. For starters, demoting top generals and blowing mercenary leaders on whom you’ve long depended out of the sky, all in the middle of an ongoing war, are not the actions of a confident, efficient, stable autocracy. A longer-term rot has set in, which, over time, will need ever more dramatic, and risky, action to try to cover over. Once the spiral is set in motion, it can only intensify in one direction. That is not to say the Putin system awaits great weakness or catastrophe; these dynamics can play out over years, if not decades.

Most decisive will be the war itself. For the moment, Russian defenses have held up better than expected against the Ukrainian counter-offensive. If that continues, and this summer’s Ukrainian campaign fizzles without taking back considerable chunks of Russian-occupied territory, Putin’s authority and sway over the élite will likely remain. But if that changes, and Russian lines collapse or are considerably weakened anywhere along the front, especially in striking distance of Crimea, then suddenly Putin’s legitimacy would weaken in ways that could quickly surpass the challenge posed by Prigozhin.

Putin behöver inte bara ersätta Prigozjin i Afrika, utan även i Ukraina! Som bekant fortsätter Ukraina att avancera, och tiden är inte på Rysslands sida.

[Enceladus]

Enligt uppgift fortsätter Ukraina att avancera mot Novoprokopivka.

Flera ryska militärbloggare uppger att Ukraina har befriat Novoprokopivka. Dessutom sägs Ryssland beskjuta Il'chenkove, nästa by på vägen mot Tokmak.

Top US general says Ukraine to get F16 jets soon

"Clearly it’s had partial success to date. Now the speed at which the offensive has been undertaking is slower than the planners had thought," Milley added in the interview in Amman.

[...]

Washington was still deliberating providing long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems known as ATACMS that Ukraine wants and which reach behind enemy lines, including Russia, Milley told Al-Mamlaka.

"They've gotten long-range artillery with the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) and the Brits have provided other types of capabilities that other countries have as well. So they've gotten a lot of artillery," he said. "But the ATACMS is a controversial topic.

"And for a lot of reasons, they haven't received those yet. They're still on the table. President Biden has not said no or yes at this time," Milley said.

USA:s toppgeneral Mark Milley bedömer att Ukraina har redan nått delvis framgång. Vidare ligger ATACMS alltjämt på bordet. Lyckas Scholz övertala USA?

Explosions rock 3 Russian regions, Moscow airports closed

Explosions were reported overnight on August 25 in the Kursk, Kaluga, and Tula regions of Russia. Airports in Moscow, specifically Domodedovo and Vnukovo, were closed, according to Russian Telegram channels.

Residents of the Kaluga region claim that in the cities of Obninsk and Maloyaroslavets, at least 3-4 explosion sounds were heard. The first videos of "explosions" in Russia appeared on the internet.

[...]

"A missile was detected and destroyed by air defense means over the territory of the Kaluga region," the ministry stated.

Än en gång stängdes Moskvas flygplatser på grund av drönare - och tydligen missiler. Sannolikt avses S-200. Därtill attackerades flygbasen Shaykovka igen.

[Enceladus]

Det får vara hur det vill med den saken, bara indierna hittar vatten på Månen.

India’s lunar rover goes down a ramp to the moon’s surface and takes a walk

``Prime Minister Narendra Modi or any other politician should not take credit for this achievement,” Bhargava said in a telephone interview.

[...]

The successful mission showcases India’s rising standing as a technology and space powerhouse and dovetails with the image that Modi is trying to project: an ascendant country asserting its place among the global elite.

[...]

India’s success comes just days after Russia’s Luna-25, which was aiming for the same lunar region, spun into an uncontrolled orbit and crashed. It would have been the first successful Russian lunar landing after a gap of 47 years. Russia’s head of the state-controlled space corporation Roscosmos attributed the failure to the lack of expertise due to the long break in lunar research that followed the last Soviet mission to the moon in 1976.

Pragyaan, som betyder visdom på sanskrit, strövar nu runt på månens sydpol för att samla in data och bilder. Den är på jakt efter vatten - och lämnar spår!

Roscosmos may launch new Moon mission in 2025 or 2026

Russia's State Space Corporation Roscosmos said on Friday that it will consider launching a new mission to the Moon's south pole in 2025 or 2026.

The space agency said that its Director General Yuri Borisov discussed the country's failed Luna-25 Moon mission with Roscosmos staff and scientists and noted that "Russian designers and scientists are burning with the idea of ​​continuing the lunar project." Roscosmos added that "One of the options for continuing the program may be to consider the possibility of repeating" the attempt to land on the Moon's south pole.

The comments come after India became the first country to make a soft landing on the lunar south pole just days after Russia's Luna-25 mission crashed on the Moon's surface.

Borisov vill tydligen göra ett nytt försök. Blir det hans sista chans innan han skickas till fronten som hans företrädare?

Why Yevgeny Prigozhin Had to Die

The Wagner uprising pushed the Kremlin to accelerate its efforts to consolidate the armed forces and move to “neutralize” all autonomous figures inside the military leadership. Putin was not so much getting rid of those who sympathized with Prigozhin as he was acting according to a state-centric logic. He was trying to destroy the polycentricity of the armed forces and depose all those with ambition or aspirations toward independence of action.

It appears General Sergei Surovikin was removed from his position as head of Russia’s aerospace forces because he went too far, though this does not necessarily mean he will face any charges. In addition, Prigozhin’s uprising was a trigger that allowed the Federal Security Service (FSB) to go after outspoken ultra-nationalists. The arrest of former Ukrainian rebel commander Igor Girkin (also known as Strelkov) put an end to a situation in which the Kremlin appeared to be running scared of a confrontation with some of the army’s radical critics.

The way in which Prigozhin was apparently killed suggests the Kremlin wanted to show how it deals with traitors. Whatever actually happened, the Russian elite will see the air crash as retribution for Wagner’s armed uprising. Some will be scared, but others will be pleased: among conservatives it will be seen as justice.

Tatiana Stanovaya har skrivit en ny artikel. Kommer utrensningarna av oberoende röster att begränsa Rysslands förmåga, åtminstone på längre sikt?

[Enceladus]

Framför allt finns få historiska exempel på så kraftigt minerade försvarslinjer som i Zaporizhia oblast. Franz-Stefan Gady har ju också tidigare sagt att han inte tror att någon annan krigsmakt än USA:s skulle kunna åstadkomma ett mekaniserat genombrott, som situationen är nu:

Ukrainian forces appear to widen breach of Russian defenses on southern front lines

Signs are growing that Ukrainian forces have penetrated the first line of Russian defenses along part of the southern front lines in Zaporizhzhia region, and are expanding a wedge in the direction of the strategic town of Tokmak.

The Ukrainian General Staff said Friday there had been further success in two areas – towards the village of Novoprokopivka and further east in the direction of another small settlement, Ocheretuvate.

[...]

A blogger called “Rogozin at the front,” who is linked to the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army, said there had been an accumulation of enemy armored vehicles.

“The enemy is gathering forces for a decisive blow. They need to reach Verbove, then Tokmak,” he wrote. “We’re holding out.”

Som sagt, Ukraina fortsätter att avancera mot Tokmak. Rysslands första minerade försvarslinje kunde inte stoppa de framryckande ukrainska trupperna!

Wagner’s lucrative African operations thrown into post-Prigozhin limbo

“Africa’s all going to go to shit,” said a longtime Prigozhin acquaintance briefed on and referring to Wagner’s operations there. “They wouldn’t let him do any operations anymore and nobody’s going to take them over, because you need Zhenya for that,” he added, using Prigozhin’s nickname. “He was the only one crazy enough to make it work.”

[...]

“They let him take as many people as he wanted to Africa. About 1,000 did, and 500 have already redeployed,” said the longtime acquaintance. “So they were starting over, and if [Prigozhin] survived, he would have come up with some way eventually to get in front of Putin again and say, ‘Look what I did in Africa’.”

[...]

But future deployments to Africa are likely to be less lucrative, according to the longtime Prigozhin acquaintance. “We’re talking about tens of millions a year maximum,” the person said of the expected profits.

Det är tveksamt om Putin kan återställa Prigozjins afrikanska imperium. Däremot kan Putin kallblodigt jämna Wagnersoldaters gravar med marken.

Prigozhin’s death spells end of Wagner, but Russia won't abandon its missions

During last month’s Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, the deputy head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Andrei Averyanov, participated in the official delegation for the first time. The media has named Averyanov as the commander responsible for the poisonings of double agent Serge Skripal and Bulgarian arms dealer Emilian Gebrev. According to rumors, it was Averyanov who was developing a plan to completely replace Wagner in Africa with a military corps of 20,000 people. "Prigozhin was extremely opposed to this and made every effort to prevent it," reported the Russian Telegram channel VChK OGPU.

[...]

The decapitation of Wagner is effectively dismantling the group, because its command council is unable to be effective without Prigozhin, Utkin and Chekalov.

A source who previously served in the Russian military intelligence told Al-Monitor that while Wagner did have a plan of action in place in the event of its leader’s death, it is temporary in nature and did not at all imply full autonomous operation. The source stressed that without Prigozhin, it would be impossible to operate a business that is “in confrontation with the state structures that created this business.”

Som sagt, det blir svårt att ersätta Prigozjin, speciellt enär Wagnergruppens skyldigheter existerade endast informellt:

You said that the person who was responsible for the financial component of Wagner Group was killed. Will that affect payments to active fighters?

Of course. That’s one of the problems with an unincorporated private military company. All its obligations exist only informally. If the relatives of a deceased Wagner fighter haven’t received payments, it’s not guaranteed that they ever will. It’s the same with wounded fighters and with those who are now finishing missions in Africa.

Their money was guaranteed by Prigozhin personally. Their salaries came in the form of bags of cash distributed under the table. Prigozhin guaranteed them and was interested in fulfilling his obligations. And he did. But who’s interested in that now?

[Lennart Petersen]

IMG_4719.jpeg
Det var en ny variant. Jag trodde han skulle ”råka” falla utför en trappa eller nån liknande ”olyckshändelse”. Men det kanske är logiskt, Putin var helt enkelt tvungen att göra nåt åt honom…

Och kondoleanser från Putin själv, som dock sägs ha haft ett numera ovanligt nöjt ansiktsdrag .
Det blir väl en begravning ungefär som för Romell.
Men dom är bra på begravningar i Ryssland, jämsides med O´Banion-Caponetiden brukar det väl vara magnifika tillställningar.
Men hur skickar man blommor nu med sanktionerna för penningtransaktioner ?

[Enceladus]

The Last Days of Wagner’s Prigozhin

Countries from Mali to Syria had come to depend on Prigozhin’s hired guns, and just days ago, he was offering his services to the new military government of Niger, which seized power last month.

Yet new mercenary companies, run by Russia’s GRU military-intelligence agency, were competing to take over Wagner’s contracts. Putin had personally told Touadera, the Central African Republic president, that the time had come to distance himself from Prigozhin. When Touadera visited Prigozhin’s hometown of St. Petersburg for a conference last month, he abstained from taking a selfie with the Russian warlord.

[...]

The following day, Prigozhin was welcoming the Rapid Support Forces commanders from Sudan. As they handed over the gold, packed in wooden crates from Darfur’s Songo mine, the warlord said he needed more.

“I need more gold,” Prigozhin said, according to a Sudanese official familiar with the conversation.

[...]

On Tuesday, a delegation from the Russian Defense Ministry landed in Libya at the invitation of Haftar, the Libyan warlord who had paid Wagner for securing its oil wells and territory. Prigozhin’s mutiny had left Haftar’s close circle nervous about Wagner’s presence in Libya, said Mohamed Eljarh, a managing director at security consulting firm Libya Desk with connections in Haftar’s camp.

“They felt that if they do it in Russia, they can do it in Benghazi,” said Eljarh, who said the two sides discussed a formal defense partnership with the Russian government.

Ännu en intressant artikel om Prigozjins sista dagar.

Flera ryska militärbloggare uppger att Ukraina har befriat Novoprokopivka. Dessutom sägs Ryssland beskjuta Il'chenkove, nästa by på vägen mot Tokmak.

Def Mon bekräftar Ukrainas snabba framryckning under de senaste dagarna. En viss skribent envisas dock med att hänvisa till källor som påstår tvärtom...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Flera ryska militärbloggare uppger att Ukraina har befriat Novoprokopivka. Dessutom sägs Ryssland beskjuta Il'chenkove, nästa by på vägen mot Tokmak.

Def Mon bekräftar Ukrainas snabba framryckning under de senaste dagarna. En viss skribent envisas dock med att hänvisa till källor som påstår tvärtom.

Enceladus-kollektivet ljuger som ett Putin-troll. Det här är vad jag skrev:

Tokmak i år, Melitopol nästa år?

Ja, frågetecknen är många. Historiskt och taktiskt påminner situationen på sydfronten en del om den längs den finsk-ryska fronten under finska fortsättningskriget, från 1941, fram till lillefar Stalins offensiv under 1944. Fast finnarnas försvarslinjer var avsevärt svagare befästa än ryssarnas idag.

Framför allt finns få historiska exempel på så kraftigt minerade försvarslinjer som i Zaporizhia oblast. Franz-Stefan Gady har ju också tidigare sagt att han inte tror att någon annan krigsmakt än USA:s skulle kunna åstadkomma ett mekaniserat genombrott, som situationen är nu:

Gady however was quick to emphasize that “no Western type of military can really do this sort of combined arms operations at scale, with the exception of the United States. But even the United States Armed Forces would have a very difficult time breaking through these defensive layers because no Western military in the world currently has any experience in breaching the types of defenses in depth that the Russians put up, in the south and east of Ukraine.”

Ukraine running out of options to retake significant territory (Washington Post)

As Ukraine counteroffensive gets bogged down, it’s back to the drawing board (Politico)

De båda artiklarna är skrivna 17 resp. 20 augusti och i huvudsak retrospektiva. De kan alltså inte ha uttalat sig om vad som har har hänt "under de senaste dagarna" och följaktligen inte heller kunnat "påstå tvärtom". Enkelt logiskt tänkande, något som Enceladus-kollektivet tyvärr ofta är renons på.

Enceladus-kollektivet, däremot, ENVISAS med att ständigt hänvisa till anonyma twitter-X-källor som påstås "bekräfta" både det ena och det andra. Någon slags fanatism, det med. Men det blir väl så när man inte tål att höra några andra åsikter än sina egna.

Nä, grabbar, sitt inte uppe på nätterna och skriv - omdömet verkar grumlas en hel del då.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

PS. Det är svårt att bilda sig en uppfattning om vad som händer på slagfältet, med tanke på krigets propagandadimmor. Eller, som The WarZone skriver:

Given the fog of war, the fluidity of the situation and the inability to independently verify Ukrainian or Russian claims here, we don’t really know the full extent of the Ukrainian advance. However, that should become clearer in the coming days. Whether Ukraine can reclaim enough ground before the rainy season sets in toward October, when oozing mud slows down everything, remains to be seen.

Men om man vill ha bättre översikter än det Enceladus-kollektivet presterar så kan man läsa dels ISW:s dagliga sammanställningar: https://www.understandingwar.org/

samt just The WarZones återkommande "Ukraine Situation Report": https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone

Återigen, som en allmän kommentar, är det viktigt att Ukraina inte förlorar för mycket personal. Ett historiskt exempel är - återigen - den tyska våroffensiven i WW1 på västfronten 1918, där tyskarna misslyckades pga. sina mycket stora personalförluster, nästan 700.000 man. De västallierade förlorade ännu mer personal, men försvarslinjerna höll.

Enligt ISW:s senaste sammanställning påstås Ukrainas ÖB general Zaluzhnyi ha jämfört med slaget vid Kursk i WW2 1943, då Hitlertyskland förlorade initiativet på östfronten:

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valeri Zaluzhnyi responded to criticisms about the Ukrainian counteroffensive by stating that it was not a counterinsurgency but the Battle of Kursk, referencing a weeks-long World War II battle that ultimately allowed the Soviet army to regain the battlefield initiative and recapture significant swaths of territory.

(ISW:as källhänvisning är denna Wall Street Journal-artikel, men den är tyvärr bakom betalvägg:
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/u-s-uk ... thor_alert )

Det är en hisnande jämförelse, med tanke på de oerhörda förluster det slaget kostade lillefar Stalin.

[Enceladus]

De båda artiklarna är skrivna 17 resp. 20 augusti och i huvudsak retrospektiva. De kan alltså inte ha uttalat sig om vad som har har hänt "under de senaste dagarna" och följaktligen inte heller kunnat "påstå tvärtom". Enkelt logiskt tänkande, något som Enceladus-kollektivet tyvärr ofta är renons på.

Enceladus-kollektivet, däremot, ENVISAS med att ständigt hänvisa till anonyma twitter-X-källor som påstås "bekräfta" både det ena och det andra. Någon slags fanatism, det med. Men det blir väl så när man inte tål att höra några andra åsikter än sina egna.

Nä, grabbar, sitt inte uppe på nätterna och skriv - omdömet verkar grumlas en hel del då.

Skribenten gör ett ensidigt urval av artiklar. Jag försöker vidga perspektivet genom att belysa den andra sidan av myntet:

Ukraine will speed up advance on southern front, commander says (Reuters)
Ukraine’s counteroffensive might yet surprise critics (Washington Post)
Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think (CEPA)

Vidare har Ukraina ett nytt ess i rockämnen: To Blow Up Russia’s S-400 Battery In Crimea, Ukraine Tweaked Its Cruiser-Sinking Neptune Missile

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Skribenten gör ett ensidigt urval av artiklar. Jag försöker vidga perspektivet genom att belysa den andra sidan av myntet:

Ukraine will speed up advance on southern front, commander says (Reuters)
Ukraine’s counteroffensive might yet surprise critics (Washington Post)
Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think (CEPA)

Vilketa groteskerier! Det finns väl ingen på detta Forum som gör ett så ensidigt urval som Enceladus-kollektivet. Det där påståendet har kollektivet dessutom försökt köra med tidigare, det gick inte då heller. Jag skulle kunna skriva mycket mer om den saken, men är väluppfostrad nog att avstå från vidare utläggningar i ämnet.

Att det har hänt en del de senaste dagarna framgår av referensen ovan från The WarZone. Observera att de ovan refererade artiklarna - som i sig är läsvärda, utom den sista (CEPA) som är ren propagandism, på samma sätt som Enceladus-kollektivets mer än årsgamla påstående att
"segern är inom räckhåll" - är skrivna senare än de av mig tidigare refererade artiklarna. Reuters-artikeln återger dessutom den ukrainska beskrivningen i stort sett rakt av rakt av. Sådana finns det mängder av ifrån olika ukrainska medier.

Svensk-amerikanske Jan Kallberg, som skrivit den sistnämnda artikeln, verkar vara en rätt udda figur: https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Kallberg
Men tvärsäker är han. Formuleringarna påminner om den avdankade schackmästaren Garri Kasparovs rallarsvingar, dock på en högre intellektuell nivå, får man säga. Karln är ju faktiskt disputerad. Men hans artikel innehåller likväl en del intressanta tankegångar. De ska jag nagelfara en annan gång, kanske.

Tills vidare gäller ändå¨The WarZones övergripande omdöme:

Given the fog of war, the fluidity of the situation and the inability to independently verify Ukrainian or Russian claims here, we don’t really know the full extent of the Ukrainian advance. However, that should become clearer in the coming days. Whether Ukraine can reclaim enough ground before the rainy season sets in toward October, when oozing mud slows down everything, remains to be seen.

[Enceladus]

Kulturkrigaren DeSantis, möjligen Republikanernas nästa presidentkandidat, missar inte chansen att kritisera Demokraterna. Intressant nog använde han den ryska propagandatermen "the borderlands", likt Elon Musk gjorde med "Chrusjtjovs misstag". Dessa termer används i princip aldrig utanför Ryssland.

Newly declassified US intel claims Russia is laundering propaganda through unwitting Westerners

US intelligence agencies believe that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is attempting to influence public policy and public opinion in the West by directing Russian civilians to build relationships with influential US and Western individuals and then disseminate narratives that support Kremlin objectives, obscuring the FSB’s role through layers of ostensibly independent actors.

[...]

The campaigns have sometimes been effective at planting Russian narratives in the Western press, according to the intelligence. Maxim Grigoriev, who heads a Russian NGO, made multiple speeches to the UN presenting a false study that claimed the humanitarian group the White Helmets – which operates in Syria – was running a black market for human organs and had faked chemical attacks by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, with whom Russia is allied. Those claims eventually found their way into a television report on the far-right OANN in the United States, according to open-source materials provided by the official.

[...]

One man, Andrey Stepanenko, founded a media project in 2014 that sponsored journalists from the US and the West to visit eastern Ukraine and learn “the alleged truth” about what was happening in the region. In fact, the FSB directed his efforts and “almost certainly financed the project,” according to the declassified intelligence.

Ovanstående formuleringar är ren propagandism, inte artiklar som förutspår att segern är inom räckhåll.

Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say

Admiral Radakin’s role has been especially important and not widely appreciated until now, the officials said. General Milley speaks to General Zaluzhnyi every week or so about strategy and Ukrainian military needs. But the Biden administration has prohibited senior U.S. officers from visiting Ukraine for security reasons and to avoid increasing tensions with Moscow. Britain, however, has imposed no such constraints, and Admiral Radakin, a polished officer who served three tours in Iraq, has developed close ties with his Ukrainian counterpart during multiple trips to the country.

‘That’s our guy’: how UK military chief became key Nato liaison in Ukraine

It was no ordinary discussion: Zaluzhnyi brought his entire command team with him on the roughly 300-mile journey from Kyiv. The aim of the five-hour meeting was to help reset Ukraine’s military strategy – top of the agenda was what to do about the halting progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, along with battle plans for the gruelling winter ahead plus longer-term strategy as the war inevitably grinds into 2024.

[...]

British sources are reluctant to say much about the outcome of the meeting at the border. But the indications from the west is that the strategy has changed as a result of the discussions. “I think you can see they are focusing on the Zaporizhzhia front,” said one insider, amid reports of fresh Ukrainian attacks aimed at the city of Tokmak, an initial step towards reaching the Sea of Azov, thereby cutting the land bridge to Crimea.

Här är en mer nyanserad artikel om västerländska synpunkter på Ukrainas framtida strategi.

Vidare har Tatarigami_UA skrivit en X-tråd som svar på inlägg från Def Mon och Rob Lee:

Robotyne-Tokmak axis update:

1/ Yesterday, I discussed Russian reinforcements and reserves in the South, but didn't mention them specifically. Today, it's safe to say that I was referring to the movement of units from the 76th Guards Air Assault Division from the North-East

2/ I anticipated that it would take a few days for the OSINT community to detect and identify them, hence I waited until today. According to russian military doctrine, at least on paper, 76th division is a part of their strategic reserves, underscoring the seriousness of the move

3/ As of now, refraining from additional statements, it's crucial to acknowledge the twofold implications. On one hand, this strengthens russian operational capacities. On the other, their failure will critically impair of combat-ready reserves for rapid deployment.

4/ Lastly, I want to highlight that the division is comprised of various units. Therefore, it's more accurate to refer to "elements and units of the 76th division,". This is distinct from the complete division with all its constituent units.

Läget verkar inte vara särskilt uppmuntrande för Ryssland...

Syria: 11 soldiers killed in tunnel attack

At least 11 Syrian soldiers were killed in the country's northwest on Saturday, after militants detonated explosives in tunnels under army positions.

[...]

"They detonated tunnels they had dug beneath army positions and simultaneously launched an assault from other tunnels," he told AFP.

[...]

Earlier this week, Russian air strikes in opposition-controlled northwestern Syria killed two people, according to the White Helmets rescue group.

[...]

After opposition gains in the early years of the war, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was able to turn the tide with Russian and Iranian backing, and opposition forces are now in control of only portions of the northern part of the country.

Rebeller passar på när Ryssland har fullt upp i Ukraina. Här är en video på en tunnelbomb som exploderar i provinsen Idlib - för första gången sedan 2016.

[Enceladus]

Salisbury poisoning commander under suspicion over death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, intelligence sources say

Intelligence sources in the UK and Ukraine have told i that Major General Andrey Averyanov is being discussed in connection with the downing of Prigozhin’s jet.

[...]

But Western officials believe the Russian President was most likely to have been responsible, with US President Joe Biden saying “there’s not much that happens in Russia that Putin’s not behind.”

[...]

One former and one current UK intelligence sources with vast experience of Russian espionage efforts told i Mr Averyanov was being named in connection with the crash, adding that Russian General, who is tipped to take over the Africa operation of the Wagner group, had been in a “long grudge” with Prigozhin.

Underrättelsekällor från UK och Ukraina uppger att den ryske generalen Andrej Averjanov ligger bakom Prigozjins och de andras död. Grozev instämmer.

Kremlin says Putin has no plans to attend G20 in India in person

The Kremlin said on Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had no plans to attend the G20 summit in India in September in person.

[...]

This week he attended a gathering of leaders from the BRICS group of emerging economies in South Africa by video link, not in person.

Putin vågar inte längre lämna landet - av goda skäl:

Putin will not attend the G20 meeting in India next month, making it after the G20 meeting in Indonesia and the most recent BRICS meeting in South Africa the third international meeting in a row he stays away and it has less to do the with the often mentioned ICC warrant. India is anyway not a member state of the International Criminal Court. So that argument falls anyway short.

The real reason is that Putin is totally afraid to leave Russian airspace, knowing very well the worth of his head, and dying in a plane "accident" is something he is somehow very familiar with. But even in Russia it is understood that international relations must be forged with meetings in person and Putin cannot do this. And he never ever will be. This creature of a lame duck will hide in his bunker until the end of his miserable days.

Hur kan en ledare representera sitt land i detta tillstånd?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Underrättelsekällor från UK och Ukraina uppger att den ryske generalen Andrej Averjanov ligger bakom Prigozjins och de andras död.

Generalmajoren Andrej Vladimirovitj Averjanov tillhör den ryska militära underrättelsetjänsten GRU. Det är de som gör de riktigt smutsiga jobben, så har det varit sedan den sovjetiska kommunistdiktaturens glada dagar. Chef är nu amiralen Igor Olegovitj Kostyukov.

Averjanov har, som det ankommer en underrättelseofficer, hållit en låg profil och det är svårt att hitta bilder på honom. Denne man har mycket på sitt samvete, bl.a. var han trolig inblandad i sabotageaktionerna i Tjeckiska republiken 2014.

Men man får anta att han, liksom sin högste chef Vladimir Vladimirovitj Putin är är god kristen, och att den genomruttna ryska ortodoxa kyrkan ger honom syndernas förlåtelse. Ungefär som den argentinska katolska kyrkan gjorde för mordkommandona under militärdiktaturens smutsiga krig.

Och nu när Prigozjin är röjd ur vägen ska Averjanov tydligen ta över dennes smutsiga jobb i Afrika. Här ser vi förberedande jobb, Vladimir Vladimirovitj träffar Ugandas president Yoweri Museveni (korrumperad skurk). Lägg märke till Sergej Viktorovitj Lavrovs ansiktsuttryck, han tävlar visst med banditen Erdogan om att se ut som ett åskmoln.