Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

Ja, man undrar ju varför inte ryssarna använder sin motsvarighet 9K515 Tornado-S mer. Antingen har de för få enheter förbandssatta, eller också har de inte tillräckligt med långräckviddiga missiler, när nu inte mördarjärnen Uragan m.fl. kan användas här. Eller också är de ryska missilerna inte så träffsäkra som det påstås. Eller också har ryssarna för dåliga målkoordinater.

Ett år senare lyser 9K515 Tornado-S alltjämt med sin frånvaro bland Rysslands bekräftade förluster. Det finns förvånansvärt få stridsvagnar av typen T-90A:

Military Balance is flawed, as has been mentioned often, but it's one of the few comprehensive looks at what the Russians should have had in active service. My current theory on T-90As (we haven't seen any in some time) is that they were withdrawn and sent for refit to T-90Ms.

Ryssland tillverkar inte många nya stridsvagnar, utan uppgraderar främst befintliga. Därmed tickar klockan för Putins uthållighet.

Russia’s Shoigu to join Chinese officials in North Korea visit

Satellite imagery indicates North Korea has been preparing for the kind of large-scale military parade with which it typically fetes such anniversaries. But the inclusion of Chinese and Russian guests this year is a post-pandemic first, which hints at new flexibility towards enforcing border controls.

North Korea has been under a rigid self-imposed coronavirus blockade since early 2020 to protect itself from COVID-19, which has prevented even its own nationals from entering the country.

[...]

Since the start of 2022, North Korea has test-fired about 100 missiles as leader Kim Jong Un exploits the distraction created by Russia’s war on Ukraine to accelerate the expansion of his country’s nuclear and ballistic missiles programme.

Ryssland är i desperat behov av ammunition. Nyligen dokumenterades för första gången ammunition från militärjuntan i Myanmar. Blir Nordkorea nästa?

Gallant’s visit to Azerbaijan underlines Iranian threat to regional security

For example, the Azerbaijani military published footage of a training exercise targeting small flying targets meant to simulate the infamous Iranian loitering munition, the Shahed-136, thousands of which were sold to Russia and are being used to bombard Ukraine. This is the first documented drill of its kind by Azerbaijani forces, and it could not come at a more opportune moment.

During several of the recent clashes on the Azeri-Armenian border, the Armenian side used the Shaheds against Azerbaijani positions. It is not outlandish to presume that Israel, being on the forefront of anti-missile and anti-drone technology production, has something up its sleeve to assist its major strategic partner.

[...]

Another security issue that came up recently is related to the use of radio jamming devices against the GPS satellite navigation systems on Azerbaijani passenger planes. It was reported by the local Ministry of Defense that such devices were used by Armenian separatists in the Karabakh enclave, which is controlled by the Russian military.

Israel already faced the same threat several years ago, when the Russians used such devices in Syria, disrupting the GPS signals of planes landing at Tel Aviv airport. This problem was dealt with in Israel, so it might provide the solution to its ally.

Israels parlament har nyss antagit en kontroversiell lag som kan alienera väst. Att nu stödja Azerbajdzjan och ignorera Ukraina ökar den risken ytterligare.

Nattens ISW-sammanfattning nämner också Armeniens användning av iranska drönare - förmodligen i brist på bättre alternativ:

Russia continues to find ways to remind Armenia and Azerbaijan that Moscow’s military and diplomatic presence in the South Caucasus is necessary. The Russian government may have intended for the Russia-Armenia-Azerbaijan trilateral meeting to reduce possible Iranian efforts to supplant Russian influence with Armenia by providing Shahed drones to Yerevan.

Däremot växer oenigheten mellan Ryssland och Iran om dessa drönarleveranser. Ryssland har inget att erbjuda, inte ens det som Armenien har betalat för:

For several months now, Armenia has been discussing the story of Russia’s debt for the supply of weapons for which it was paid. The Prime Minister of the country was the first to talk about this, without specifying which country he was talking about:

“We have cases where hundreds of millions of dollars have been paid, but the obligations for deliveries to Armenia are not fulfilled, including by the allied countries.”

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Russia’s Shoigu to join Chinese officials in North Korea visit

Ja, Shoigu måste ju vara oerhört avis för att han inte har lika stor skärmmössa som sin nordkoreanska motsvarighet (eller vad det nu är för figur). Nordkoreanerna har ju hållit fast vid de stalinistiska "helikopterplattorna".

Och här visar den lille fetknoppen Shoigu vem som har störst(a raketerna):

[Enceladus]

Jag tror att den som vill läsa denna artikel klarar av att bilda sig en egen uppfattning utan Enceladus-koilektivets pekpinnar (eftersom kollektivet har den lilla ovanan att avfärda allt som inte passar de egna åsikterna som "rysk propaganda"). Tänka sig!

Former U.S. Official Shares Details of Secret ‘Track 1.5’ Diplomacy With Moscow

“They don't know how to define victory or defeat. In fact, some of the elites to whom we spoke had never wanted the war in the first place, even saying it had been a complete mistake,” he said.

“But now they’re at war — suffering a humiliating defeat is not an option for these guys.”

[...]

He noted that Washington had also offered to help conduct fair referendums in the Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, in which residents would vote on whether they wished to be part of Ukraine or Russia.

[...]

“Putin is the major block to all progress,” he said. “The U.S. administration has made at least one attempt to speak with the Kremlin but Putin himself refused.”

For this reason, he argued, Washington “should begin reaching out to the anti-war Russian elite and begin making progress with them.”

Artikelns författare diskuterade tydligen Musks "fredsförslag". Är det inte rysk propaganda? Tiden är inte på Rysslands sida. Det är bara att vänta ut Putin.

Exclusive: Russia’s Spies Say Putin Faces More Coups

“Everyone in the Ministry of Defense and in the government as a whole is already tired of this war and would like to stop it,” the source said. “You can feel the discontent , so I expected something similar could happen by autumn. The fact that Prigozhin turned out to be at the head of the rebellion is surprising, but he would never have done such a thing if he had not understood that there would be those in the GRU leadership who would support him.” This echoes statements anonymous Western intelligence officials have made in the past several weeks about the existence of a Russian fifth column.

[...]

Nor has the meeting between Putin and Prigozhin, the man he had branded a “traitor,” made the Russian president any safer. “Now everyone is convinced of how easily and without a fight you can take power, so there may be many who want to,” the GRU officer said. “Everyone saw that, in fact, no one stood up for Putin. What until recently was considered by many to be absolutely impossible almost succeeded, and now many may want to repeat it again.”

[...]

A senior European intelligence official said the chaotic first 24 hours of Prigozhin’s campaign were the most crucial: “The sense of tension and disorder at the top was real. Putin is no doubt somewhat weakened. Should Ukraine be dramatically successful in its counteroffensive, the likelihood of Act Two increases. It may have a different cast, but the scene has been set.”

Putin är kraftigt försvagad efter Wagnerupproret, och det gäller att smida medan järnet är varmt. Lyckligtvis har Ukrainas motoffensiv intensifierats:

Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the pro-Russian Vostok Battalion, reports that Russian forces lost Staromaiors'ke.

"The loss of a settlement after a stubborn and no doubt heroic defense is a blow to our military pride."

Militärbloggaren Romanov varnade nyligen för just detta:

In addition, also Romanov is predicting a bad outcome of the Staromaiors'ke-Urozhaine line:

"In the event of the surrender of Staromaiors'ke, there is a serious danger of losing Urozhaine. They will simply come out of it and say about occupying more advantageous lines. The enemy is trying to competently penetrate the flanks of the positions of the 35th army and take it into the cauldron. Everyone on the ground sees this, but no countermeasures are taken. Commanders lack the competence to solve this problem. Now the question is at the stage of pushing the blame on each other," he says.

Dags för Putin att gömma sig i en bunker igen!

Moldova cuts Russian embassy staff over 'hostile actions'

Moldova said on Wednesday it was sharply reducing the number of diplomats Russia can have in its capital Chisinau, citing years of "hostile actions" by Moscow and a media report about possible spying kit installed on the embassy's rooftop.

Relations between Russia and Moldova, once part of the Soviet Union, have reached new lows after President Maia Sandu strongly condemned Moscow's invasion of neighbouring Ukraine and accused Russia of plotting to overthrow her.

[...]

Embassy personnel will be cut to 25 from more than 80, the foreign ministry said in a separate statement, bringing Russia's embassy in line with Moldova's diplomatic mission in Moscow.

Ännu en geopolitisk förlust för Putin. Moldavien är inte längre en del av Rysslands intressesfär. För övrigt är det anmärkningsvärt många för ett så litet land.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Jag tror att den som vill läsa denna artikel klarar av att bilda sig en egen uppfattning utan Enceladus-koilektivets pekpinnar (eftersom kollektivet har den lilla ovanan att avfärda allt som inte passar de egna åsikterna som "rysk propaganda"). Tänka sig!

Former U.S. Official Shares Details of Secret ‘Track 1.5’ Diplomacy With Moscow

“They don't know how to define victory or defeat. In fact, some of the elites to whom we spoke had never wanted the war in the first place, even saying it had been a complete mistake,” he said.

“But now they’re at war — suffering a humiliating defeat is not an option for these guys.”

[...]

He noted that Washington had also offered to help conduct fair referendums in the Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, in which residents would vote on whether they wished to be part of Ukraine or Russia.

[...]

“Putin is the major block to all progress,” he said. “The U.S. administration has made at least one attempt to speak with the Kremlin but Putin himself refused.”

For this reason, he argued, Washington “should begin reaching out to the anti-war Russian elite and begin making progress with them.”

Artikelns författare diskuterade tydligen Musks "fredsförslag". Är det inte rysk propaganda?

Som alla kan se (fastän Enceladus-kollektivet klippte bort referensen återigen) handlade min kommentar just om denna artikel.
The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine

Artikeln i The Moskow Times var också läsvärd. Men jag kan inte se att någon Musk nämns där. Vad Enceladus-kollektivet anser vara "rysk propaganda" fäster jag som bekant inget större avseende vid.

[Enceladus]

Artikeln i The Moskow Times var också läsvärd. Men jag kan inte se att någon Musk nämns där. Vad Enceladus-kollektivet anser vara "rysk propaganda" fäster jag som bekant inget större avseende vid.

Här är Musks så kallade fredsförslag som Richard Haass tydligen förespråkar: Elon Musk's peace plan for Ukraine draws condemnation from Zelenskyy

Ukrainas kritik mot Haass och hans följe är inte nådig - med rätta:

So, a group of anonymous US tankies discussing Ukraine with Russia behind Ukraine’s back? There’re another words to describe it: treason, betrayal, and pure imperialism.

Men skribenten fortsätter förstås att sprida rysk propaganda...

Putin’s Pitch to Africa Is Weakened by His War

Vladimir Putin is surrounding himself with African leaders today as Russia seeks to show he has plenty of friends despite efforts by the US and its allies to isolate him over the war in Ukraine.

Yet the second Russia-Africa summit in the president’s home town of St. Petersburg isn’t the hit the Kremlin had planned. Just 17 heads of state are attending, compared to 43 when Putin hosted the first event in 2019, while other countries have sent lower-level officials.

[...]

Wagner’s important for a number of African leaders who struck security arrangements with its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, as a proxy for Russian engagement. They’re now puzzling over the state of the relationship between the Kremlin and Wagner.

Tydligen är det Prigozjin som möter afrikanska ledare i Sankt Petersburg. Patetiskt av Putin! Ligger Wagnergruppen bakom kuppförsöket i Niger?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Artikeln i The Moskow Times var också läsvärd. Men jag kan inte se att någon Musk nämns där. Vad Enceladus-kollektivet anser vara "rysk propaganda" fäster jag som bekant inget större avseende vid.

Här är Musks så kallade fredsförslag som Richard Haass tydligen förespråkar: Elon Musk's peace plan for Ukraine draws condemnation from Zelenskyy

Ukrainas kritik mot Haass och hans följe är inte nådig - med rätta:

So, a group of anonymous US tankies discussing Ukraine with Russia behind Ukraine’s back? There’re another words to describe it: treason, betrayal, and pure imperialism.

Men skribenten fortsätter förstås att sprida rysk propaganda...

Ja, där kom det tillslut - Enceladus-kollektivets vanliga halmdocka.

Jag har inte satt mig in så noga i vad Musk kan tänkas anse om det ena eller andra, men tycker att det är intressant om olika åsikter kommer fram - sedan får var och en bilda sig sin egen uppfattning, och till skillnad från Enceladus-kollektivet anser jag att var och en är kapabel till det. De behöver inte nödvändigtvis överensstämma med vare sig mina eller Enceladus-kollektivets åsikter, men att vifta undan allt och alla som inte passar som "rysk propaganda", "nyttiga idioter", rysk propagandist" och andra spottloskor tyder i så fall tyvärr på bristande intellektuell förmåga.

Lite egna analyser vore intressant att få läsa, men det är lika frånvarande här som hos katastrofförfattaren Wilderäng. Då förvandlar man sig själv till "propagandist". Formuleringarna blir då - i förekommande fall - bara obetydligt bättre än hos det slödder som häckar på Wilderängs kommentarsfält.

[Enceladus]

Lite egna analyser vore intressant att få läsa, men det är lika frånvarande här som hos katastrofförfattaren Wilderäng. Då förvandlar man sig själv till "propagandist". Formuleringarna är bara obetydligt bättre än hos det slödder som häckar på Wilderängs kommentarsfält.

Richard Haass: 'A disintegrating Russia on the shortlist of nightmares'

Recent events have left Vladimir Putin vulnerable, losing ground in Ukraine and facing isolation from multiple nations. The President of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, joins Morning Joe, expressing caution in assessing the impact of Ukraine's recent counter-offensive and Putin's resilience. While Ukraine may see some gains, a collapse of Putin's regime remains uncertain, requiring further evaluation of the situation's dynamics and potential consequences.

Ukrainas drömscenario tycks vara Richard Haass värsta mardröm. Vad finns det att analysera? Parterna har uppenbarligen motstridiga intressen.

To Foreign Policy Veteran, the Real Danger Is at Home

Everywhere he has gone as president of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard N. Haass has been asked the same question: What keeps him up at night? He has had no shortage of options over the years — Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, climate change, international terrorism, food insecurity, the global pandemic.

But as he steps down after two decades running America’s most storied private organization focused on international affairs, Mr. Haass has come to a disturbing conclusion. The most serious danger to the security of the world right now? The threat that costs him sleep? The United States itself.

“It’s us,” he said ruefully the other day.

Mullornas propagandakloak gillar tydligen att citera Haass. Dessvärre för Iran blev både han och USA:s särskilda sändebud Robert Malley avpolletterade...

Rooftop spooks: How GRU and SVR monitor Moldovan authorities using Russian embassy rooftop antennas

Year after year, the number of dishes and transmitting devices on the rooftop of the Russian embassy in Chisinau keeps growing, accompanied by the regular appearance of enigmatic figures. This rooftop activity becomes particularly noticeable ahead of presidential or parliamentary elections, as well as during the visits of foreign delegations to Moldova. Notably, such activity occurred before the June 1 Eurosummit and in May following a cyber-attack on government networks, which resulted in thousands of classified documents being compromised. Jurnal TV (Moldova) and The Insider managed to identify the individuals on the embassy rooftop: they turned out to be covert communication officers associated with the GRU and SVR, closely connected to hacker groups responsible for breaching the electronic mailboxes of Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron, and Hillary Clinton.

[...]

The majority of the dishes and antennas are located on the residential building adjacent to the embassy, playfully referred to by Russian diplomats as “our hotel.” On the rooftop of this building, one can find various types of equipment, including classic satellite dishes, yagi-uda arrays, magnetic loop antennas, and vertical masts.

According to experts, the parabolic antennas serve multiple purposes, such as establishing satellite communication, microwave relay links, or boosting the signal of wireless internet routers. Additionally, they can be utilized for locating ships, aircraft, and guided missiles. Parabolic antennas are also capable of intercepting signals from satellite telephony systems like Thuraya, enabling the interception of telephone conversations across numerous European countries.

Dessbättre för Ukraina har Moldavien äntligen börjat ta sig an de ryska spionerna i landet. Uppenbarligen kan de även påverka krigföringen i Ukraina!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Lite egna analyser vore intressant att få läsa, men det är lika frånvarande här som hos katastrofförfattaren Wilderäng. Då förvandlar man sig själv till "propagandist". Formuleringarna är bara obetydligt bättre än hos det slödder som häckar på Wilderängs kommentarsfält.

Richard Haass: 'A disintegrating Russia on the shortlist of nightmares'

Recent events have left Vladimir Putin vulnerable, losing ground in Ukraine and facing isolation from multiple nations. The President of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, joins Morning Joe, expressing caution in assessing the impact of Ukraine's recent counter-offensive and Putin's resilience. While Ukraine may see some gains, a collapse of Putin's regime remains uncertain, requiring further evaluation of the situation's dynamics and potential consequences.

Ukrainas drömscenario tycks vara Richard Haass värsta mardröm. Vad finns det att analysera? Parterna har uppenbarligen motstridiga intressen.

Man kan ha olika uppfattningar - här som i alla (i nästan alla andra sammanhang). Det kan man argumentera och resonera kring. Klarar man inte av att inse det gör man bäst i att hålla tyst, istället för att förfalla till floskler som "värsta mardröm".

Men Enceladus-kollektivet behöver inte "analysera" någonting. Det är helt frivilligt. Jag gör inte det, utan överlämnar det helt åt läsaren.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Mullornas propagandakloak gillar tydligen att citera Haass. Dessvärre för Iran blev både han och USA:s särskilda sändebud Robert Malley avpolletterade...

Ahh, guilt by association - ingenting är för lågt för Enceladus-kollektivet. Men det har ju framgått tidigare.

[Enceladus]

Wagnergruppens uppror må vara över, men inte dess orsaker:

Suspensions, Detentions, and Mutinies: the Growing Gulf in Russia’s Civil-Military Relations

Russian civil-military relations are in crisis. Last month, the Wagner mercenary army rose up against the regime—and went unpunished for doing so, despite apparently having killed several Russian pilots. Less than a month later, in mid-July, General Ivan Popov—one of the commanders of the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia—recorded a voice message accusing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov of suspending him from command for reporting problems in the army. Several other Russian generals suspected of disloyalty have reportedly been dismissed or placed on leave.

Despite his image as a strongman that the military could rely on, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been slow to address the root causes of the civil-military conflict, prompting claims that it all boils down to the president’s preference for loyalty over competence. The reality is more complex. The war is challenging the military’s established role in Russian domestic affairs, politicizing the armed forces, and reducing their privileged autonomy in waging war and developing the defense sector. There are no good options for resolving this conflict.

The military has always played a pivotal role in Russian history. In the failed coup of 1991, the army dragged its feet on supporting the putschists, while in the presidential assault on parliament in 1993, tank detachments set the Russian parliament on fire. Boots on the ground have shored up Russian influence in Central Asia, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Syria.

Återigen en intressant artikel från Carnegie Politika. Som bekant har Surovikin erfarenheter från det misslyckade kuppförsöket 1991. Den här gången verkar det ha gått bättre för kuppmakarna. Enligt den gripne Girkin lyckades Prigozjins kupp - han fick vad han ville, och nu återgår han till sina intressen i Afrika:

In the first picture, posted to Facebook by an Africa-based aide, Prigozhin shakes hands with a suited-up African delegate. According to the watchdog All Eyes on Wagner, the African official is chief of protocol to Faustin Touadera, the president of the Central African Republic.

[...]

In a subsequent post, the Orchestra Wagner Telegram channel also claimed credit for a coup in Niger that took place on the eve of the St. Petersburg summit, although this claim could not be independently verified.

The ongoing military coup in Niger is threatening to destabilize one of the last Western allies in Africa’s Sahel region.

UK:s regering får stark kritik från landets utrikesutskott för att ha underskattat den ryska Wagnergruppens tillväxt. Putin behöver Prigozjin mer än tvärtom.

Själv frågar jag mig ständigt varför Prigozjin gick över från korv till krig:

Prigozjin sägs vara personligt engagerad i Afrika. Jag åberopar en tidigare länkad artikel från Proekt Media:

Prigozhin was constantly engaged in projects in Africa. Every day he would call his staff in the CAR, Chad, Congo, Sudan, Syria and Libya and listen to their reports, sometimes giving specific instructions.

The Chef took an interest in literally everything in these countries. In the Central African Republic, his structures trained the military, and in return they received concessions to mine diamonds and gold. But one day, after a conversation with the local president, Prigozhin suddenly decided that it was absolutely necessary to get involved in coffee production. “We immediately started producing coffee, but since we didn’t hire qualified managers, the business didn’t take off, even though the coffee was delicious,” recalls one of the employees.

It was in Africa that the Chief first combined his two most powerful resources — political strategists and the army. This led to a mess — Prigozhin tried to move African presidents around as if they were toy soldiers from his cabinet. A representative of the president of one African country once flew to St Petersburg with a request to help create their own “troll factory”. Specialists were provided for them and they began to support the current head of state with PR, but after three months, they turned the tables and placed their bets on his opponent.

Jag citerar den brittiska rapporten: "Där väst flyttar ut, flyttar Wagner in och ser möjligheter i lidande och att göra vinst på kaos." Titta på kuppen i Niger!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Prigozjin sägs vara personligt engagerad i Afrika. Jag åberopar en tidigare länkad artikel från Proekt Media:

Prigozhin was constantly engaged in projects in Africa. Every day he would call his staff in the CAR, Chad, Congo, Sudan, Syria and Libya and listen to their reports, sometimes giving specific instructions.

The Chef took an interest in literally everything in these countries. In the Central African Republic, his structures trained the military, and in return they received concessions to mine diamonds and gold. But one day, after a conversation with the local president, Prigozhin suddenly decided that it was absolutely necessary to get involved in coffee production. “We immediately started producing coffee, but since we didn’t hire qualified managers, the business didn’t take off, even though the coffee was delicious,” recalls one of the employees.

It was in Africa that the Chief first combined his two most powerful resources — political strategists and the army. This led to a mess — Prigozhin tried to move African presidents around as if they were toy soldiers from his cabinet. A representative of the president of one African country once flew to St Petersburg with a request to help create their own “troll factory”. Specialists were provided for them and they began to support the current head of state with PR, but after three months, they turned the tables and placed their bets on his opponent.

Jag citerar den brittiska rapporten: "Där väst flyttar ut, flyttar Wagner in och ser möjligheter i lidande och att göra vinst på kaos." Titta på kuppen i Niger!

Så är det väl. Det finns mer att tjäna på att föra krig än att tillverka korv. Ett sorts postkolonialt rofferi, alltså - fast nu i samförstånd med den lokala "eliten", i bästa fall korrumperade skurkar

Are military takeovers on the rise in Africa?

Fast en dag kommer Prigosjin att försvinna i djunglerna, som alla andra gangsters.

[Enceladus]

Jag har inte satt mig in så noga i vad Musk kan tänkas anse om det ena eller andra, men tycker att det är intressant om olika åsikter kommer fram - sedan får var och en bilda sig sin egen uppfattning, och till skillnad från Enceladus-kollektivet anser jag att var och en är kapabel till det. De behöver inte nödvändigtvis överensstämma med vare sig mina eller Enceladus-kollektivets åsikter, men att vifta undan allt och alla som inte passar som "rysk propaganda", "nyttiga idioter", rysk propagandist" och andra spottloskor tyder i så fall tyvärr på bristande intellektuell förmåga.

Adrienne Watson, talesperson för USA:s säkerhetsråd, har precis twittrat följande:

The United States has not requested official or former officials to open a back channel, and is not seeking such a channel. Nor are we passing any messages through others.

When we say nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, we mean it.

Richard Haass, eller vem det nu var, kan alltså ha brutit mot Logan Act, en lag från år 1799 som förbjuder obehöriga medborgare att förhandla med fiender.

Ukrainian military suffers over 200 casualties in latest attack — Putin

"Sadly, we were not spared casualties, but the difference is enormous - by many times. Our [losses] are more than ten times less than the enemy’s," Putin said.

Putin added that the Ukrainian military had suffered losses in combat hardware.

"I would like to emphasize that everything that has happened in the past 24 hours is a vivid example of mass heroism of our soldiers and officers," the president stated.

Tror Putin själv på sin propaganda? I så fall är han omöjlig att förhandla med. De visuellt bekräftade förlusterna talar sitt tydliga språk.

What Russia Sees: In Crimea, ‘Everyone Is Having Fun’

On Russian state television, explosions on the roadway of a 12-mile bridge are no reason to cancel your vacation to the beaches of the Crimean Peninsula, even with a war raging nearby on mainland Ukraine.

[...]

When the United States announces new weapons or ammunition for Ukraine, for instance, Russian leaders present a sanguine front. As U.S.-provided cluster munitions began arriving in Ukraine in recent days, Mr. Putin told a reporter — for a program titled “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin.” — that the delivery was a sign of Ukraine’s supply shortages, a contrast to Russia’s well-stocked supples.

[...]

“Everything is wonderful — summer, sea and sun,” Ms. Svistelnikova told viewers, after saying that Crimea’s hotels had rooms and beds ready. “Crimea is waiting for every guest with open arms!”

Enligt Kofman har Ukraina ett övertag i eldrörsartilleri. Vem är mest trovärdig? I den senaste podden nämns dock att ukrainska trupper efterfrågar APOBS.

Access to Arabat Spit, which connects the eastern part of annexed Crimea to Kherson region, to be closed

Interfax reports that the operational headquarters of annexed Crimea has banned civilian passage to the Arabat arrow — a spit connecting the eastern part of the peninsula with the Kherson region.

Civilian passage will be prohibited starting at 20:00 on July 31. From that point on, only employees of emergency services and those performing works of “defense significance and emergency response” will be able to get to the spit.

Ryska myndigheter uppmanar sina medborgare att turista på den ockuperade halvön, men stänger samtidigt av vägarna för civil trafik. Allt går enligt plan.

Putin can’t count on his friends in Italy anymore

When Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni walks into the Oval Office on Thursday, her transformation will be complete.

Gone is the ghoulish caricature of an extremist monster, sympathetic to Moscow, whose party was descended from fascists, and in her place stands a pragmatic conservative willing to do business with a grateful international mainstream.

For U.S. President Joe Biden and Ukraine’s backers in the West, securing Meloni’s long-term commitment to the war effort is vital: Italy will assume the leadership of the G7 next year, at what’s likely to be a critical time in the conflict.

Putins bundsförvant Berlusconi är död och Meloni har visat sig vara mer västvänlig än någon kunde ana. Hur många av Putins gamla vänner lever än?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Jag har inte satt mig in så noga i vad Musk kan tänkas anse om det ena eller andra, men tycker att det är intressant om olika åsikter kommer fram - sedan får var och en bilda sig sin egen uppfattning, och till skillnad från Enceladus-kollektivet anser jag att var och en är kapabel till det. De behöver inte nödvändigtvis överensstämma med vare sig mina eller Enceladus-kollektivets åsikter, men att vifta undan allt och alla som inte passar som "rysk propaganda", "nyttiga idioter", rysk propagandist" och andra spottloskor tyder i så fall tyvärr på bristande intellektuell förmåga.

Adrienne Watson, talesperson för USA:s säkerhetsråd, har precis twittrat följande:

The United States has not requested official or former officials to open a back channel, and is not seeking such a channel. Nor are we passing any messages through others.

When we say nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, we mean it.

Richard Haass, eller vem det nu var, kan alltså ha brutit mot Logan Act, en lag från år 1799 som förbjuder obehöriga medborgare att förhandla med fiender.

Vad jag vet befinner sig inte USA och Ryska federationen i krig med varandra. Dessutom har det ju knappast bedrivits några "förhandlingar".

Still, the Logan Act has been rarely enforced, possibly because prosecutors have been concerned that speech between a private citizen and a foreign government may still qualify as free speech and be protected in that regard.

[............... ]
There has been little judicial discussion of the constitutionality of the Logan Act. The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York in Waldron v. British Petroleum Co., 231 F. Supp. 72 (S.D.N.Y. 1964), mentioned in passing that the Act was likely unconstitutional due to the vagueness of the terms "defeat" and "measures," but did not rule on the question.

What Is the Logan Act and What Does It Have to Do With Flynn?

Men personerna bakom den artikel jag har refererat till är ointressanta, det man kan ha åsikter om är vad som skrivs där, för eller emot. Eller låta bli. Men att vifta undan det som "rysk propaganda", "nyttiga idioter" osv. eller på annat sätt försöka misstänkliggöra personerna bakom är konspirationsteorier och intellektuellt undermåligt.

Det är egentligen inte konstigare än så. Vanlig enkel argumentationsanalys, alltså. En bra sak att öva sig på ibland, om man vill framstå som trovärdig. Men man kan låta bli det också.

[Enceladus]

Men personerna bakom den artikel jag har refererat till är ointressanta, det man kan ha åsikter om är vad som skrivs där, för eller emot. Eller låta bli. Men att vifta undan det som "rysk propaganda", "nyttiga idioter" osv. eller på annat sätt försöka misstänkliggöra personerna bakom är konspirationsteorier och intellektuellt undermåligt.

Unofficial meetings with Russian officials isn't diplomacy—it's a trap

First things first, these talks have directly caused headaches for the U.S. in two separate directions. For people reading the story who (wrongly) read it as Haass et al speaking for the U.S. administration, this leads to the mistaken impression that the U.S. is quietly abandoning its loud commitment to not hold “talks about Ukraine without Ukraine”. Several Ukrainians have clearly have read the story this way, and are now (wrongly) upset at the U.S. administration for holding talks about their future behind their backs.

Correctly reading the story as Haass et al speaking despite the U.S. administration also invites two different cognitive traps. It encourages the (misleading) impression that a diplomatic solution to the conflict is just around the corner, if only the Biden administration would permit it—after all, here are some other prominent Americans able to “negotiate”. And it gives the mistaken impression that the Biden administration is not talking to Russia, thereby encouraging the Russian-sponsored narrative that the U.S. is belligerently opposed to peace when Russia is amenable to it; a bizarre inversion of the reality. On that second point specifically, the U.S. maintains regular open communications with its counterparts in Moscow. Politico recently reported, for example, that “[a]n administration official confirmed the backchanneling with Moscow to West Wing Playbook, emphasizing that such open channels are routinely used when officials on either side have important messages to convey” (emphasis added).

But there’s a deeper reason why Lavrov was so willing to take this meeting, and it’s a risk inherent to “Track 1.5” meetings between official delegations and unofficial ones. It’s that fake negotiations operate in a framework that is deceptively unrepresentative of real negotiations, and which consistently lead to the official side steamrolling the non-governmental side, and the non-governmental side going home and immediately laundering an unusually friendly paper or article under their supposedly neutral and well-credentialed titles.

And that’s exactly what’s happened here. Shortly after their meeting with Lavrov, Haass and Kupchan cowrote an article for Foreign Affairs, titled “The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine: A Plan for Getting From the Battlefield to the Negotiating Table”. The article did not mention their meeting with Lavrov, and despite a brief overture in support of increased equipment transfers to Ukraine at the start, the article lays out a “peace plan” for Ukraine and Russia that is (unwittingly) heavily distorted towards Russian talking points and dismissive of Ukrainian redlines.

Ovanstående artikel gör en bra analys av Haass utspel. Den som läser analysen inser lätt att Haass är en rysk propagandist, eller i bästa fall en nyttig idiot.

Här är något som inte är propaganda: Idag har Ryssland 34 bekräftade förluster medan Ukraina har 11 bekräftade förluster. Tiden är inte på Rysslands sida.

Dessutom har Ukraina precis befriat Staromaiors'ke.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Men personerna bakom den artikel jag har refererat till är ointressanta, det man kan ha åsikter om är vad som skrivs där, för eller emot. Eller låta bli. Men att vifta undan det som "rysk propaganda", "nyttiga idioter" osv. eller på annat sätt försöka misstänkliggöra personerna bakom är konspirationsteorier och intellektuellt undermåligt.

Unofficial meetings with Russian officials isn't diplomacy—it's a trap

First things first, these talks have directly caused headaches for the U.S. in two separate directions. For people reading the story who (wrongly) read it as Haass et al speaking for the U.S. administration, this leads to the mistaken impression that the U.S. is quietly abandoning its loud commitment to not hold “talks about Ukraine without Ukraine”. Several Ukrainians have clearly have read the story this way, and are now (wrongly) upset at the U.S. administration for holding talks about their future behind their backs.

Correctly reading the story as Haass et al speaking despite the U.S. administration also invites two different cognitive traps. It encourages the (misleading) impression that a diplomatic solution to the conflict is just around the corner, if only the Biden administration would permit it—after all, here are some other prominent Americans able to “negotiate”. And it gives the mistaken impression that the Biden administration is not talking to Russia, thereby encouraging the Russian-sponsored narrative that the U.S. is belligerently opposed to peace when Russia is amenable to it; a bizarre inversion of the reality. On that second point specifically, the U.S. maintains regular open communications with its counterparts in Moscow. Politico recently reported, for example, that “[a]n administration official confirmed the backchanneling with Moscow to West Wing Playbook, emphasizing that such open channels are routinely used when officials on either side have important messages to convey” (emphasis added).

But there’s a deeper reason why Lavrov was so willing to take this meeting, and it’s a risk inherent to “Track 1.5” meetings between official delegations and unofficial ones. It’s that fake negotiations operate in a framework that is deceptively unrepresentative of real negotiations, and which consistently lead to the official side steamrolling the non-governmental side, and the non-governmental side going home and immediately laundering an unusually friendly paper or article under their supposedly neutral and well-credentialed titles.

And that’s exactly what’s happened here. Shortly after their meeting with Lavrov, Haass and Kupchan cowrote an article for Foreign Affairs, titled “The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine: A Plan for Getting From the Battlefield to the Negotiating Table”. The article did not mention their meeting with Lavrov, and despite a brief overture in support of increased equipment transfers to Ukraine at the start, the article lays out a “peace plan” for Ukraine and Russia that is (unwittingly) heavily distorted towards Russian talking points and dismissive of Ukrainian redlines.

Ovanstående artikel gör en bra analys av Haass utspel. Den som läser analysen inser lätt att Haass är en rysk propagandist, eller i bästa fall en nyttig idiot.

Här är något som inte är propaganda: Idag har Ryssland 34 bekräftade förluster medan Ukraina har 11 bekräftade förluster. Tiden är inte på Rysslands sida.

Så bra då, återigen slipper Enceladus-kollektivet tänka själv. Dessutom har kollektivet vänligheten att skriva oss på näsan vad vi ska "inse lätt". Som sagt, rent struntprat. Den text som citeras ovan behöver däremot inte vara det. Det får var och en bilda sig en egen uppfattning om - utan pekpinnar! Artikeln, från denne "Matt Tait" (jag har inte lyckats utröna vem det faktiskt är, men det verkar vara en sådan där som ska ha åsikter om allting) är faktiskt även den läsvärd och bör läsas i sin helhet (och inte bara det som Enceladus-kollektivet behagar citera). Tyvärr är den bitvis slarvig skriven och rymmer en den del personangrepp även den, eftersom den uppehåller sig mycket vid att artikelförfattarna hade den makalösa fräckheten att ens skriva den där artikeln. Det är lite som den svenska Nato-debatten. Det är en fullt respektabel åsikt att vara emot ett svenskt Nato-medlemskap, men de som uttrycker detta framställs som nästintill landsförrädare, nyttiga idioter och Putins nickedockor

Men den är som sagt läsvärd och betydligt mer sammanhängande än vad Enceladus-kollektivet kunnat prestera.

Vi kan fortsätta den här diskussionen hur länge som helst, eftersom Enceladus-kollektivet uppenbarligen inte fattar vad det handlar om.

Och som denne "Matt Tait" skiver:

Please, please stop talking about the Logan Act. No, really. It’s dead law. In 220 years nobody has ever been successfully prosecuted under it, and any such prosecution would almost certainly be unconstitutional. U.S. citizens can talk to foreign governments. They cannot fraudulently represent themselves as U.S. government officials, but that did not happen here. The legal system will not punish U.S. citizens who talk to foreign governments—even about foreign policy—in their capacity as ordinary citizens.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Men jag kan bjuda på en artikel till av denne anonyme "Matt Tait". Han säger sig ursprungligen vara britt, och ger sig i den egenskapen på den brittiska monarkin, annars verkar han vara immigrant i USA och som sådan försöker vara mer amerikansk än amerikanerna själva.

Men nu var det inte det som det var fråga om här, utan utsikterna till en förhandlingsfred. I likhet med den tidigare artikelreferensen lämnas denna utan kommentarer eller recensioner, eftersom jag tror att de läsare som Enceladus-kollektivet inte lyckats skrämma bort från tråden kan göra egna bedömningar:
The war will end with Diplomacy. But here's why it won't be soon.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Här är en intressant text från ISW om hur Putin-regimen fortsätter att använda religionen som vapen. Så har det förstås alltid varit genom historien och Putin har väl, till skillnad från Stalin, insett att det är bättre att ha kyrkan med sig än mot sig.

The Kremlin reportedly distributed a manual to Russian state media on framing the anniversary of the Baptism of Rus on July 28, likely as part of continued information operations and propaganda narratives to advance Russian military objectives. Russian opposition news outlet Meduza reported on July 27 that it obtained the manual but did not publish the manual itself, which reportedly directs Russian state media to frame the Baptism of Rus as “a key turning point in Russian history” and “the point of formation of statehood.”[27] The manual reportedly emphasized that a “common faith” allowed the “East Slavic tribes” to unify as “one people.”[28] The manual reportedly instructs state media to paint Russian President Vladimir Putin as the one who “brought the mission of defending the Orthodox faith back to Russia” and reportedly labels the Ukrainian government an “apostate regime” and a “satanic regime” that is trying to “destroy” Orthodoxy in Ukraine and “the spiritual ties of the fraternal peoples.”[29] These Kremlin-dictated religion-based narratives come as Russia is itself committing systematic religious repressions and persecutions throughout Ukraine, including against Orthodox Christians, in an effort to destroy Ukrainian cultural and national identity.

Egentligen är detta väl bleka nöden, sovjetkommunismen var i någon mening ett heltäckande ideologiskt system, medan Putins nationalfascism är ett tomt skal som måste fyllas med något. Och då finns den genomruttna ryska kyrkan tillhands, på samma sätt som under tsar-väldet. I modern tid har den ryska kyrkan också helgonförklarat mördartsaren Nikolaj II ( blodiga söndagen 1905, då Nikolaj skickade militären att angripa folket med sablar och gevär ) och utropat honom till "martyr".

Putin vill ju gärna framställa sig inte bara som "trons beskyddare" utan också som tsarernas efterföljare, och skulle nog själv vilja utropa sig till kejsare om bara inte monarkin vore så omodern som statsform.

Här är den Meduza-artikel som refereras till i ISW-texten: ‘Nazi satanists are entrenched in the holy Russian city of Kyiv’



Två sant kristna! Det är inte utan att man håller med Kalle Marx!

[Enceladus]

Beneath the Surface, Prigozhin’s Mutiny has Changed Everything in Russia

Looking back, it all appears to have been a misunderstanding. On the one hand, Putin failed to understand how radicalized Prigozhin had become and allowed the conflict to escalate with deadly consequences. On the other, Prigozhin overestimated his own importance, mistakenly believing he could strongarm Putin into reshuffling the military leadership and saving Wagner from irrelevance.

At least on the surface, it all seems now to have been resolved. Prigozhin understands that his attempt to use force was a mistake, and Putin has decided Prigozhin was just a patriot who momentarily forgot himself amid the horrors of war, rather than a dangerous traitor.

[...]

Yet the mutiny also damaged the reputation of Russia’s military leaders and helped bring to the surface unhappiness that has accumulated further down the ranks. After a disagreement earlier this month with Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, Major General Ivan Popov, the widely respected commander of Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army, was removed from his post and sent to serve in Syria. Russian Telegram channels are also rife with rumors about the removal of Major General Vladimir Seliverstov, leader of the 106th Airborne Division, and Colonel General Mikhail Teplitsky, commander of Russia’s airborne forces.

These changes look more like the result of damage to Gerasimov and Shoigu’s authority than a purge of Prigozhin allies. It’s possible that with time, Putin will need to replace the two men.

[...]

The person who suffered the most as a result of the mutiny was Putin himself. However confident he may feel in the aftermath, he messed up. He created a monster that escaped from his control and spooked the elites. Everyone saw that the Kremlin was paralyzed with indecision, and that Prigozhin escaped any real punishment. Many are currently wondering whether Putin is the leader Russia needs in difficult times.

Putin’s much-hyped “power vertical” has disappeared. Instead of a strong hand, there are dozens of mini-Prigozhins, and while they may be more predictable than the Wagner leader, they are no less dangerous. All of them know full well that a post-Putin Russia is already here—even as Putin remains in charge—and that it’s time to take up arms and prepare for a battle for power.

Putins så kallade "power vertical" har synbarligen upphört att gälla. Situationen är ohållbar, speciellt när Sjojgu och Gerasimov fortsätter med utrensningar.

Putin promises free grain to six African nations after collapse of Black Sea deal

Commenting on Putin’s promises of free grain, the UN secretary general, António Guterres, said a “handful of donations to some countries” would not correct the dramatic impact the end of the deal would have.

Observers believe that Putin will use this week’s summit to push a plan to supply grain directly to Africa and cut Ukraine out of the global market. Moscow has previously used the grain issue to find allies in the global south for its war in Ukraine and gather support against western sanctions.

[...]

Late on Wednesday, a close ally of Prigozhin posted a picture showing the Wagner boss meeting Freddy Mapouka, a senior official in CAR, an impoverished country that has welcomed thousands of the group’s mercenaries over the last few years.

The image was first published on Facebook by Dmitry Syty, a Russian national whom western officials have described as an important figure in Wagner’s CAR branch. According to local news outlet Fontanka, the image was taken at the Trezzini Palace hotel in St Petersburg, which is reportedly owned by Prigozhin.

[...]

The images represent the first visual sightings of Prigozhin in Russia since the warlord halted his mutiny. His continued presence in the country indicates that the Kremlin has been unwilling or unable to remove him as Wagner head.

Rysslands president Putin lovar gratis spannmål till sex afrikanska länder, men FN:s generalsekreterare Guterres synar bluffen. Hur reagerar Afrika?

African leaders urge Putin to end blockade of Ukraine’s grain

African Union Chairman Azali Assoumani called on Russia to allow the export of both Ukrainian and Russian grain at the opening session of the Russia-Africa summit on Thursday, amid fears that the blockade will lead to a spike in food prices that would worsen a food security emergency in the Horn of Africa.

[...]

Assoumani spoke directly after Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is using the summit as a way to try to cut Ukrainian grain out of African markets, told the African leaders who were there that Russia would replace Ukrainian grain supplies to Africa and boasted that Russia accounts for 20 percent of global supplies.

Although the Kremlin has portrayed its grab for market share as a “humanitarian” project, its move to blockade Ukrainian grain from world markets would enable Moscow to benefit from higher grain prices, reap the value of stolen Ukrainian grain in occupied regions, and undermine Ukraine’s economy.

But Assoumani pushed back against the Russian leader’s claim that Russia would provide enough grain to Africa without the need for Ukrainian supplies.

Although Russia was “cooperating” to resolve the crisis, “our continent is currently being severely impacted by food prices. So we are appealing to all participants in the process with a big request to facilitate access to both Ukrainian and Russian food,” he said in comments translated from French into Russian.

Afrikanska unionens ordförande Azali Assoumani låter inte övertygad. Ett antal afrikanska ledare har en personlig relation med Prigozjin - men inte Putin.

Egyptian leader urges Russia to revive Black Sea grain deal

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi urged Russia on Friday to revive the Black Sea grain deal, in which it had allowed Ukraine to export grain from its seaports despite the war, which collapsed last week.

Sisi told an Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg that it was “essential to reach agreement” on reviving the deal, which Russia quit because it said Ukraine and the West were failing to hold up their end of the bargain.

Food importer Egypt is one of the key buyers of Black Sea grains.

Afrikas största ekonomi, Egypten, har stora synpunkter på Rysslands agerande. Afrikas näst största ekonomi, Nigeria, har inte ens skickat sin ledare till det rysk-afrikanska toppmötet i Sankt Petersburg. Afrikas tredje största ekonomi, Sydafrika, har accepterat ICC:s arresteringsorder mot Putin. Rysk diplomati!

Samtidigt fortsätter Ryssland att förlora synnerligen många luftfarkoster, såväl civila som militära, till synes orelaterat till kriget i Ukraina:

A Russian FSB's border service Mil Mi-26 helicopter struck a light pole at Yakutsk Airport, causing the pole to come crashing down on it, tail of the helicopter was snapped along with other damages.

Kan detta vara ett resultat av ökad användning och västerländska sanktioner, vilka båda leder till sämre underhåll?

[Enceladus]

Ukraina fortsätter att avancera på båda fronterna runtomkring Tokmak, nämligen vid Luhove och Robotyne:

AFU has made some progress SE of Kam'yans'ke and are within 2KM of Luhove. Russians are reinforcing the line with units of a BARS batallion and a detachment of the 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade, coming from defensive lines near Myrne. Increased pressure on Zhereb'yanky..

Ryssland lider massiva förluster: listan över 101 ryska soldater nämner 65 döda, 14 skadade, 19 desertörer samt 3 saknade. Ukraina använder Hydra-70 väl!

US gains as Russia ‘loses energy battle’

But, even with Russian exports to Europe at a fraction of their prewar level, the continent’s stocks of stored natural gas remain plentiful. Prices have retreated to pre-crisis levels. Mild winter weather helped, and recession cut demand further. It now appears that “Russia has lost the energy battle” with Europe, according to Fatih Birol, executive director at the IEA.

[...]

That will anger those concerned about the climate impact of more fossil fuel projects — given Europe’s ultimate priority is to boost renewable energy supplies and accelerate decarbonisation. For now, though, Moscow’s aggression has altered geopolitical priorities, analysts point out.

“The invasion coincided with and amplified a historic shift from the primacy of decarbonisation to energy security,” says Bob McNally, a former White House adviser who now runs Rapidan Energy Group. “For US exporters, it has been a godsend.”

Den enes död är den andres bröd. Juli i år väntas bli den varmaste månaden som någonsin uppmätts globalt. Europas energipolitik har länge varit ett skämt:

July is set to become the world’s hottest month on record, as fossil fuel emissions drive climate change and the increasing intensity of heat waves across the Northern Hemisphere.

The first 21 days of the month were the hottest three-week period on record, with July 6 seeing the highest ever global average temperature, according to the European Union’s Earth observation agency Copernicus.

[...]

“Climate-wise, the last few weeks have been rather remarkable,” Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change, Service told reporters on Thursday. “If we look at the top 21 hottest days, in terms of the global mean temperature, they have all occurred this month.”

[...]

The development of the first El Niño weather pattern in almost four years is expected to intensify the climate crisis into 2024. The warmest year on record is 2016, when there was a strong El Niño event.

Enligt klimatforskare vid universitetet i Leipzig blir juli 2023 sannolikt den varmaste månaden på 120 000 år. Men nästa sommar kan bli ännu varmare.

[Enceladus]

The anti-Ukraine right is failing to convince GOP voters

Anti-Ukraine Republicans have not only failed to persuade their House colleagues; they have also failed to sway public opinion. A new poll from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute finds that a 76 percent supermajority of Americans — including 71 percent of Republicans — agree it’s important to the United States that Ukraine wins the war. (Just 21 percent said a Ukrainian victory was not important.) And 59 percent of Americans — including 50 percent of Republicans — support continued U.S. military assistance.

[...]

Given these head winds, the level of support for Ukraine among Republican voters is nothing short of extraordinary. What explains it? “We’ve just got to start with the fact that Ukraine has been successful,” the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute’s Washington director, Roger Zakheim, tells me. “We were all watching in February of 2022 when that convoy lined up and the prediction was the Russians were going to get to Kyiv. It did not happen. They repelled the attack. … Americans like a winner.” Moreover, he says, “They can see the difference between good and evil. There’s no question who’s right and who’s wrong here. Vladimir Putin is evil. What he’s doing in Ukraine is evil. And Americans don’t really equivocate on these matters.”

The institute’s polling bears him out, showing that Republican voters are not primarily moved by practical arguments such as degrading Russian military power (11 percent) or sending a message to potential aggressors like China (19 percent). The two most persuasive arguments, cited by 67 percent of Republicans, were idealistic: standing up to Russian aggression (39 percent) and helping protect freedom, people and sovereignty wherever we can (28 percent). More than three decades after Reagan left office, most Republicans still believe that America is a force for good.

Moreover, their support for aid to Ukraine increases when they are given key facts. When told military aid to Ukraine is roughly 3 percent of the U.S. military’s own budget, that Ukraine remains in control of roughly 83 percent of its territory and U.S. intelligence believes the war has severely degraded Russia’s ability to threaten NATO allies, the number of Republicans who said aid was worth the cost rose to 59 percent.

Det amerikanska stödet till Ukraina är alltjämt kompakt. Inte konstigt när USA har tagit marknadsandelar från Rysslands inom både energi och vapen.

Was Gen. Mark Milley right last year about the war in Ukraine?

“Things can get worse,” Milley said, adding: “When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. Seize the moment.”

[...]

Milley’s trial balloon fell to the ground. The Biden administration promptly distanced itself from his remarks. We don’t know whether Russia could have been open to negotiations. But even the idea of exploring a political settlement was cast in Washington policy circles as undercutting Ukraine’s goal of a total victory. Expectations for Ukraine’s prospects of pulling off a decisive counteroffensive against the remaining Russian positions in the East swelled through the winter and spring.

Powered by infusions of American arms, the offensive finally began early last month. But the hoped-for breakthrough hasn’t materialized. The military analysts Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, who recently returned from the front, describe a grinding war of attrition with entrenched Russian forces holding their ground while relatively inexperienced Ukrainian soldiers are struggling to synchronize their offensive operations.

[...]

It’s worth posing the question Gen. David Petraeus famously asked ahead of the Iraq War in 2003: “Tell me how this ends.” If Ukraine’s counteroffensive falters, the path of political least resistance is probably not negotiation with an emboldened Russia. It’s for the West to gear up for another Ukrainian offensive in 2024, and another one after that. After all, there are worse outcomes than a grinding stalemate in eastern Ukraine, which — while costly — is neither physically risky nor politically humiliating for the United States.

En provocerande opinionsartikel, speciellt när Ukraina snart befriar Andriivka, Klishchiivka och Kurdyumivka. Dessutom vill ingen förhandla med terrorister.

The Ukrainian honeytrappers persuading Russian soldiers to reveal all

The women, both in their twenties, work for Molfar, a Ukrainian risk-assessment and analysis firm that has redirected much of its efforts to supporting the war effort since the invasion last February.

Some of their virtual relationships with soldiers stuck in the trenches have lasted as long as a year, providing a wealth of information that they pass on to be used by the Ukrainian military. Neither has any sympathy for the men that they feign affection for.

“They come to my country, they want to kill my people, they want to destroy our nationality, they don’t want Ukrainians to exist,” Angelina says. “Even if they don’t believe in this Russian war, they are ready to do all this for money — why should I care about people that want to kill me?”

Ukrainska kvinnor använder dejtingappar för att lura desperata ryska soldater. Tydligen är pengar ett vanligare motiv än ideologi.

Russia, Ukraine, and Poland: The End of a Tragic Triangle

It would be too simplistic to claim that the Russian aggression is based on its skewed rendering of history, although a heavy bias of history policy does color the worldview in the Kremlin. The idea that Russia is either an empire or it doesn’t exist is being repeated ad nauseam by Russian propagandists. Even more outlandish are statements that without Putin there is no Russia. Zbigniew Brzezinski’s astute observation catches the essence: “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.” The same logic motivated the imperial German General Staff in supporting Ukrainian separatists, just as it sponsored Finnish and Georgian freedom fighters during World War I.

[...]

The dramatic shift of borders after World War II changed Poland in a remarkable way. For the first time in history, Poland was all but mono-ethnic and mono-confessional. When the Soviet Union lost its outer empire, the Warsaw Pact, and shortly afterward its inner empire, the Ukrainian-Polish border opened. The number of Ukrainians working in Poland grew rapidly. Visa restrictions were lifted in 2017.

Most importantly, when Ukraine reemerged in 1991, the Polish question was redundant, because Poland recognized the Ukrainian border. To quote Timothy Snyder, it was “a Polish anti-imperial move vis-à-vis themselves.” It was the intellectual achievement of the Solidarnosc movement to have rethought the Polish-Ukrainian relationship.

Med facit i hand har Polens anti-imperialistiska inställning gentemot Ukraina gett betydligt bättre resultat än Rysslands imperialistiska...