Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Att Ukraina - ett civiliserat land som respekterar folkrätten - skulle ha fascisten och krigsförbrytaren Netanyahu som förebild förefaller osannolikt, för att uttrycka sig försiktigt.

FMV testar israeliskt vapen – oppositionen kritisk

Henrik Paulsson är doktorand på Försvarshögskolan, och forskar på drönare. Han har sett bilderna, och identifierar roboten som en Hero.

[...]

FMV och Försvarsmakten köper redan militärmateriel från det israeliska bolaget Elbit, det handlar om ledningssystem för 1,7 miljarder.

[...]

När det handlar om att köpa från israeliska bolag så säger FMV att man är en förvaltningsmyndighet som ”följer regeringens och EU:s inriktning vad gäller vilka länder och leverantörer som myndigheten har engagemang med”.

Är Sverige ett civiliserat land som respekterar folkrätten med nuvarande regering?

Ovanstående har ingenting med folkrätten att göra.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Striderna i Ukraina ger viktiga lärdomar, nämligen att vända sig till Israel.

Jaså, är det så. För en stund sedan var det gnäll över att Europa inte köpte tillräckligt från europeiska tillverkare.
Men här har vi en som gärna vänder sig till Israel:

På tal om "kamikaze-drönare" viewtopic.php?p=414842#p414842

Så ska visst Orbanien köpa HERO från UVision/Rheinmetall
Hungary Awards Major Contract to Rheinmetall and UVision for Hero Loitering Munitions
Hungary awards Rheinmetall and UVision a major contract for the Hero loitering munitions – order volume in the three-digit million-euro range

Fast Rheinmetall är förstås ombud för Israeliska UVision, som tillverkar Hero.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Hur ofta står Indien och Pakistan på samma sida i en konflikt?

Hahahaha, dessa länder "står inte på samma sida". Men de är "pragmatiker" (eller något sådant) och säljer gärna till högstbjudande - speciellt utfattiga Pakistan.

[Enceladus]

Pezeshkian är tydligen vald nu. Men finns det någon "reformvänlig gren av det iranska prästerskapet"? Och på vilket sätt ska man kunna "reformera" en av världens mest mordlystna diktaturer?

Som bekant slöt Raisi ett avtal med Biden om att inte skicka missiler till Ryssland i utbyte mot 16 miljarder dollar. Det första Pezeshkian gjorde när han kom till makten var att riva upp avtalet - och givetvis behålla pengarna. Biden räknade uppenbarligen inte med att Raisi kunde ersättas av en mer hökaktig president!

Jaså, är det så. För en stund sedan var det gnäll över att Europa inte köpte tillräckligt från europeiska tillverkare.

Skjut inte budbäraren! Mario Draghi och den svenska regeringen har tydligen olika åsikter i den här frågan.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Pezeshkian är tydligen vald nu. Men finns det någon "reformvänlig gren av det iranska prästerskapet"? Och på vilket sätt ska man kunna "reformera" en av världens mest mordlystna diktaturer?

Som bekant slöt Raisi ett avtal med Biden om att inte skicka missiler till Ryssland i utbyte mot 16 miljarder dollar. Det första Pezeshkian gjorde när han kom till makten var att riva upp avtalet - och givetvis behålla pengarna. Biden räknade uppenbarligen inte med att Raisi kunde ersättas av en mer hökaktig president!

Exakt så! På vilket sätt ska man kunna "reformera" en av världens mest mordlystna diktaturer?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Skjut inte budbäraren! Mario Draghi och den svenska regeringen har tydligen olika åsikter i den här frågan.

Det är inte Draghi jag skjuter på, och det förstår nog Enceladus-kollektivet också.

Men floskeln "skjut inte budbäraren" har blivit ett återkommande sätt för Enceladus-kollektivet att komma undan med snåriga resonemang

[Enceladus]

Riyadh have a choice to make now.
Keep losing market share globally and diminish their power, or increase production drive the price down and try to push others out of the market.
Right now it looks like they want to give up market share to maintain price.

exactly, I'm not quite sure how this would impact their relation with the US but to be frank I don't believe Riyad could have had a much more pro-Russian policy over the past 3 years.

Signaturen "(Ben) 本记明" har koll!

Oljepriserna fortsätter att falla: Brent oil falls below $70 per barrel, lowest level since December 2021 as OPEC cuts forecast

Global benchmark Brent oil prices on Tuesday fell below $70 per barrel for the first time since December 2021, as OPEC lowered its demand forecast for the second time in two months.

Brent hit a low of $69.08 per barrel, the lowest since Dec. 2, 2021, while U.S. crude oil traded down to $65.82 per barrel, the lowest since since May 4, 2023.

[...]

Worries about softening demand in China as electric vehicle sales surge have loomed over the oil market for months now. OPEC+ is also expected to increase production in December, with Morgan Stanley and other market analysts forecasting a surplus for 2025.

Klockan tickar oavbrutet...

Exclusive: North Korea wants to restart nuclear talks if Trump wins, says ex-diplomat

By forging closer ties with Russia, North Korea received help with its missile technology and economy. But a bigger benefit could be to block additional sanctions and undercut existing ones, Ri said, adding it would raise Pyongyang's bargaining power against Washington.

US confirms Russia received ballistic missiles from Iran

In exchange for the missiles, Blinken said Russia is sharing technology with Iran, including on nuclear issues and space.

Även Kina vill få sin beskärda del av kakan: US accuses China of giving ‘very substantial’ help to Russia’s war machine

Beijing is giving Moscow "very substantial" help to beef up its war machine, and in return Russia is handing over its closely guarded military tech on submarines and missiles, the United States' Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said Tuesday.

[...]

In exchange for Beijing's help, Russia has started giving China submarine, missile and other sensitive technologies. Historically, Moscow has been wary of giving Beijing its very latest military technology.

"The capabilities that Russia is providing is support in areas where previously they had been frankly reluctant to engage directly with China," Campbell said. "We are concerned about a particular number of military arenas where there appears to be some determination to provide China with greater support.

Men kärleken är inte ömsesidig: Major Russian lenders say yuan coffers empty, urge central bank action

Chinese banks in Russia, meanwhile, are avoiding currency trading for fear of secondary Western sanctions.

[...]

The acute yuan shortage also follows months of delays in payments for trade with Russia by Chinese banks, which have grown wary of dealing with Russia after U.S. threats of secondary Western sanctions. These problems culminated in August in billions of yuan being stuck in limbo.

Russia and China have been discussing a joint system for bilateral payments, but no breakthrough is in sight. VTB's Kostin said that since Russia's trade with China was balanced, establishing a clearing mechanism for payments in national currencies should not be a problem.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Blir Merz den fria världens ledare?

Tillsammans med Sahra Wagenknecht då?

The EU buys too much defense equipment abroad, especially from the US, a major report says

The report notes that, between mid-2022 and mid-2023, 63% of all EU defense orders were placed with U.S. companies, and a further 15% with other non-EU suppliers. Last week, the Netherlands joined a list of EU members to order big budget U.S.-made F-35 warplanes.

[...]

Consecutive U.S. leaders have been exhorting European allies and Canada to spend more on defense for more than a decade, although former President Donald Trump was the only one to threaten to refuse to defend any country that did not respect the goal. Much of the money goes back to U.S. industry.

[...]

The report highlighted the shortcomings of countries investing in their national defense industry rather than joint procurement. When Ukraine appealed for artillery, for example, EU countries supplied 10 types of howitzers. Some use different 155 mm shells, causing logistical headaches.

Nej, tillsammans med EU-veteranen Mario Draghi. Hur många Taurus-missiler har Tyskland tillverkat under förbundskansler Olaf Scholz?

Tja, "frälsaren" Merz får ett styvt jobb, i förekommande fall. Först måste han sy ihop ett regeringsunderlag. Sedan återstår den här lilla detaljen att fixa: Germany is rearming too slowly to stand up to Russia

Egentligen gäller detta, i varierande grad, hela europeiska Nato.

Som sagt, för små arsenaler och för liten produktionskapacitet. Och med Trump i Vita Huset..................

[Enceladus]

Pezeshkian är tydligen vald nu. Men finns det någon "reformvänlig gren av det iranska prästerskapet"? Och på vilket sätt ska man kunna "reformera" en av världens mest mordlystna diktaturer?

Som bekant slöt Raisi ett avtal med Biden om att inte skicka missiler till Ryssland i utbyte mot 16 miljarder dollar. Det första Pezeshkian gjorde när han kom till makten var att riva upp avtalet - och givetvis behålla pengarna. Biden räknade uppenbarligen inte med att Raisi kunde ersättas av en mer hökaktig president!

Exakt så! På vilket sätt ska man kunna "reformera" en av världens mest mordlystna diktaturer?

Iran’s missile supply to Moscow may reveal true scale of Pezeshkian’s powers

He was elected on a promise to lift sanctions and develop more balanced relations with the east and west, especially Europe. The bulk of his diplomatic appointments, including the retention of the former foreign minister Javad Zarif as an adviser, underscored that intention, and already a lively debate had started in Tehran about the extent to which Iran and Russia’s interests truly aligned.

Tehran’s Russia sceptics were making some headway pointing to positions taken by Moscow on the future of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict that undermined Iran’s territorial integrity. There was also anger at Russia’s stance over Iran’s claim to three islands in the strait of Hormuz. In the reformist press, it also became commonplace to allege that Russia was trying to put a stone in the road of better Iranian-European communications.

[...]

The second explanation is that, in return for the missiles, Russia is supplying something that Iran finds irresistible either in the form of nuclear technology or nuclear materials. Blinken spoke in these terms at his joint press conference with the UK foreign secretary, David Lammy, in London. Iran may have calculated Russia will emerge well from the struggle in Ukraine and wanted to be close to the victor. Russia’s former defence minister Sergei Shoigu was in Tehran recently discussing the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership.

[...]

Pezeshkian could have intervened when, in the summer, Russian military personnel were trained on the use of Iran’s Project 360 CRBMs (close-range ballistic missiles), but he did not do so. He has already made a series of strategic concessions to the conservatives based on the belief that reformers will make no progress if it goes for a showdown with the unelected state. Moreover, big decisions about relations with the west including a revised nuclear agreement await the election of a new US president. Donald Trump this week said he did not think Iran was trying to undermine US democracy and he could come to an agreement with Tehran, part of his pitch to reduce the cost of US foreign policy entanglements.

Det finns flera teorier om varför Pezeshkian gick vidare med att skicka missiler till Ryssland, t.ex. att Iran avser att bli en av Mellanösterns två kärnvapenmakter:

Påståendet "Iran - en av Mellanösterns två kärnvapenmakter" är dessutom felaktigt och bara ett primitivt försök att parafrasera mina formuleringar.

En annan teori, eller snarare förhoppning, är att Trump behandlar Iran som Ryssland, Nordkorea och Kina. Varför försökte mullorna i så fall att mörda Trump?

Att Ukraina - ett civiliserat land som respekterar folkrätten - skulle ha fascisten och krigsförbrytaren Netanyahu som förebild förefaller osannolikt, för att uttrycka sig försiktigt.

Tja, Bibi är spindeln som bygger nätet. Ryssland, Nordkorea och Kina har inte Bibi emot sig - och därmed inte heller Trump. Detta vill Ukraina säkert ändra på!

Hahahaha, dessa länder "står inte på samma sida". Men de är "pragmatiker" (eller något sådant) och säljer gärna till högstbjudande - speciellt utfattiga Pakistan.

Liksom Belarus:

Belarusian 45th Missile and Munitions Arsenal in 2020 and 2023. You can guess where all that ammo went.

Tiden är verkligen Ukrainas bästa vän!

Republikanska hökar går det alltid att lita på - till skillnad från tyska duvor!

Biden says ending ban on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons being worked out

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that his administration was "working that out now" when asked if the U.S. would lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of long range weapons in its war against Russia.

The U.S. has been reluctant to supply or sanction the use of weapons that could strike targets deep inside in Russia for fear it would escalate the conflict.

[...]

Sources told Reuters last week that the U.S. was close to an agreement to give Ukraine such weapons, but that Kyiv would need to wait several months as the U.S. works through technical issues ahead of any shipment.

Så sant som det var sagt! Men det ska inte behöva ta flera månader...

Som sagt, för små arsenaler och för liten produktionskapacitet. Och med Trump i Vita Huset..................

Harris puts Trump on defensive in fiery debate; Taylor Swift backs Harris

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris put Republican Donald Trump on the defensive at a combative presidential debate on Tuesday with a stream of attacks on abortion limits, his fitness for office and his myriad legal woes, as both candidates sought a campaign-altering moment in their closely fought election.

In a boost to the Harris campaign, pop megastar Taylor Swift told her 283 million followers on Instagram in a post immediately following the debate that she would back Harris and her running mate Tim Walz in the Nov. 5 election. The post had been liked nearly 2 million times within 25 minutes.

A former prosecutor, Harris, 59, appeared to get under the former president's skin repeatedly, prompting a visibly angry Trump, 78, to deliver a series of falsehood-filled retorts.

Det är dags för Biden och Trump att lämna över stafettpinnen till nästa generation. Putin och Xi behöver inte oroa sig för nykomlingar, men USA har alltjämt val.

[Enceladus]

Det är dags för Biden och Trump att lämna över stafettpinnen till nästa generation. Putin och Xi behöver inte oroa sig för nykomlingar, men USA har alltjämt val.

SVT:s USA-korrespondent Fouad Youcefi har recenserat nattens debatt mellan Kamala Harris och Donald Trump:

Det är inte ofta man kan utse en vinnare direkt efter en debatt. Men i natt fanns det en sådan – och hennes namn är Kamala Harris.

Kriget i Ukraina var självfallet ett av ämnena som avhandlades, och Harris gjorde ett starkt intryck i debatten:

VP President Kamala Harris on the topic of Ukraine during the presidential debate:

Trump fjäskade däremot för Orban medan tolvbarnspappan Musk erbjöd popstjärnan Swift en insemination.

Jag har svårt att minnas en tokigare presidentkandidat:

”I Springfield äter de hundar” – Trumps lögn om invandrare i Ohio

Hans vicepresidentkandidat JD Vance, som själv växte upp i en liknande stad i Ohio, har tagit fasta på Springfield. Och de senaste veckorna har han påstått att haitierna i staden stjäl folks husdjur och äter upp dem.

Detta påstående har upprepats av bland andra Elon Musk och högt uppsatta republikaner under de senaste veckorna. Trump upprepade det i tv-debatten mot Kamala Harris:

– I Springfield äter de hundar, de människor som har kommit dit. De äter katter. De äter husdjur som tillhör folk som bor där, sade han.

Vance, Musk och Trump har nog spenderat för mycket tid med RFK Jr. Normala människor äter inte husdjur...

[Enceladus]

MBS gillar inte Biden och vill ha höga oljepriser för att finansiera storslagna projekt, men Riyadh kan behöva en ny plan när andra - inklusive Ryssland - fuskar:

Oil Price Rout Drives Russian Revenues to Seven-Month Low

The price slump sent Russia’s flagship Urals crude back down toward the $60-a-barrel threshold that the Group of Seven sought to impose on the Kremlin as punishment for the Ukraine invasion. The grade from Russia’s Baltic ports traded at an average $60.12 on Friday, Argus Media data showed.

[...]

The decline in global prices prompted several OPEC+ member countries, including Russia, to postpone until December the easing of output curbs that had been planned to start in October. The delay means that Moscow will actually have to cut production in October and November to make up for pumping above its OPEC+ target earlier this year, rather than being able to offset the compensation cuts against a rising target.

[...]

Russia terminated its export targets at the end of May, opting instead to restrict production, in line with its partners in the OPEC+ oil producers’ group. The country’s output target is set at 8.978 million barrels a day until the end of November, after a planned easing of some output cuts was delayed by two months.

Moscow has also pledged to make deeper output cuts in October and November this year, then between March and September of 2025, to compensate for pumping above its OPEC+ quota earlier this year.

Låga oljepriser gynnar inte diktatorer!

Men jag är på gott humör idag, trots ovanstående påhoppsförsök, så jag bjuder på denna bild istället:

Russia Is on a Slow Path to Bankruptcy, But How Slow?

Russia is faced with an insoluble equation: how to finance a war in the long term, for which expenditure is soaring while budget revenues are falling, against a backdrop of tightened sanctions. Between rising taxes, falling hydrocarbon revenues, inflation, and crises in employment and foreign investment, with a labor market short by 4.8 million workers (about 7 percent of the country’s labor force), and with the value of foreign assets in Russia dropping by almost 20 percent between December 2022 and March 2024, Russia has embarked on a risky gamble from which it will not emerge unscathed. Now spinning at breakneck speed on the momentum of its “war economy,” this Russian spinning top cannot slow down, or it will fall. But it may soon run out of momentum as well as finances. Russia’s economic future after 2024 rests essentially on the price of oil from the Urals and on the quantities exported, two subjects that are all the more uncertain for Russia in the near future. Russia may soon no longer be able to rely on its depleting financial reserves. With no possibility of borrowing on international financial markets, and constrained by a limited domestic financial market (in the context of China’s gradual disengagement), Russia risks nothing less than bankruptcy in the medium term.

[...]

Except that revenues from Russian oil exports have not yet increased compared with 2023 (although the Russian budget forecasts a 25 percent increase in these revenues this year). Added to the vagaries of the market are uncertainties about the effects of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries: in the space of a few days, Ukrainian strikes have damaged three refineries representing 12 percent of Russian refining capacity. While the subject may initially have seemed more symbolic than anything else, Russian export figures for January 2024 show a drop in export volumes. For specific oil products such as gasoline and diesel, Russian exports fell by 37 percent and 23 percent respectively in January 2024. According to Gunvor Group CEO Torbjörn Törnqvist, Russian production was cut by 600,000 barrels a day following the strikes in mid-March 2024. All this is happening against a backdrop of a general decline in Russia’s oil revenues after the February-to-March 2022 peak. In July 2024, Russia’s State Duma passed its first amendments to the 2024 federal budget in order to legalize the drop in revenues, the rise in spending, and therefore the increase in the deficit forecast for 2024. More specifically, the document mentions a drop in oil and gas revenues.

[...]

While Russia was planning in 2023 to reduce its military spending from 2025 onwards, everything now seems to indicate that it will at least be maintained and probably even increased. After having deprived itself of its main customers and outlets in Europe, Russia is now forced to burn through its financial reserves to continue its war in Ukraine. These reserves are running out. By the end of 2024, if we are to believe the statements of the Russian finance minister and the accounting details of his ministry’s press releases, Russia will have exhausted the National Welfare Fund’s liquidity reserves. In a deteriorating economic context (inflation), with no possibility of raising debt on the financial markets, with less support from the Chinese banks still present in Russia, and with no prospect of sufficient oil and gas revenues, Russia could find itself in a “suspension of payments” in the near future.

Klockan tickar! Det hjälper inte heller att Ryssland fortsätter att förlora flygfarkoster - liksom piloter:

A bit earlier today Ukrainian sources began to claim that Russian Su-30 was downed over the Black Sea. Now Russian sources associated with Russian military aviation seem to confirm this in the usual manner.

/2. Claims from Ukrainian sources regarding the Russian Su-30:

"Yesterday, around 11:40 p.m., an enemy Su-30SM tactical aircraft "disappeared" over the Black Sea after launching Kh-31P missiles targeting Odesa region.

Today, search and rescue operations are ongoing at the place of its disappearance (63 km from Zaliznyi Port, Kherson region).

There was no information about the two crew members, there is a possibility that both did not survive."

/3. Russian sources say that pilots of the Su-30SM which was downed over the Black Sea are dead.

Som bekant är ryssarna duktiga på att likvidera sina egna!

[Enceladus]

Beträffande seglationsvägarna för spannmålslaster var det i första hand det ukrainska kustartilleriet, liksom de söder om Ukraina liggande Nato-ländernas möjlighet till genomfart i deras territorialvatten som säkrade dem.

Ukraine says Russia hit civilian grain vessel in Black Sea

Ukraine accused Russia on Thursday of using strategic bombers to hit a civilian grain vessel with a missile in the Black Sea in NATO member Romania's maritime economic zone, in what it described as a "brazen attack" on freedom of navigation.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the vessel carrying Ukrainian grain to Egypt had been hit by a Russian missile just after it exited Ukrainian territorial waters, and that there were no casualties according to a preliminary assessment.

[...]

If confirmed, the incident would mark a sharp increase in tensions between Moscow and the NATO military alliance, which has tried to tack a course between fears of escalation and supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia since Moscow's invasion in February 2022.

Ryssland har för första gången gått till attack mot ett vanligt civilt fartyg i Svarta havet i Rumäniens ekonomiska zon. Rumänien vågar ju inte ens röra drönare...

Russian shelling kills three Red Cross workers in eastern Ukraine

Russian shelling on Thursday killed three Ukrainians working for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and wounded two others in a village in the frontline Donetsk region, Ukrainian officials said.

"Another Russian war crime. Today, the occupier attacked vehicles of the International Committee of the Red Cross humanitarian mission in the Donetsk region," President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on X.

[...]

The statement added that ICRC teams are regularly present in the Donetsk region, and their vehicles are marked with the Red Cross emblem.

Vidare har tre personer från Röda Korset dödats i ett annat ryskt krigsbrott samma dag. Har Biden och Scholz inte insett att Putin eskalerar utan provokation?

The Telegraph reports that President Biden may give the green light for Ukraine to use Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG to strike Russia, but not with American provided ATACMS.

Absolutely maddening.

For those who still aren't understanding how this works, the US is threatening Ukraine, not exercising control over the UK or France.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 17 811 enheter, varav 3 371 stridsvagnar, 128 flygplan, 144 helikoptrar, 15 strids- och 427 spaningsdrönare.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Rumänien vågar ju inte ens röra drönare...

Jag tycker nog att Enceladus-kollektivet borde läsa sina egna referenser: viewtopic.php?p=421877#p421877

Likande resonemang har framfört i Polen, alltså begränsningar i den nationella rätten:

Anders Puck Nielsen har en annan teori:

Jag flyttar detta ämne till den politiska tråden, eftersom det har en bredare innebörd än bara det ryska överfallskriget i Ukraina. Att Ryssland anser sig vara i krig med Nato redan får betraktas som klarlagt. Än så längre är det ett "hybridkrig" dvs. sabotage, provokationer, cyberattacker, desinformation etc. Kapten Nielsen har rätt i att det finns ett betydande inslag av psykologisk krigföring i detta. Psykologisk krigföring är ju en rysk specialitet (åtminstone anser ryssarna det själva) ända sedan Lenins och lillefar Stalins dagar. Med modern teknik har ju möjligheterna att utöva denna typ av krigföring mångdubblats.

Att sedan Nato-länder hänvisar till olika formalia för sitt agerande är i så fall en annan sak. Specifikt när det gäller Shahed-UAV-ers föregivna eller verkliga kränkningar av Nato-länders luftrum behöver det inte alltid vara medvetna provokationer. Kvaliteten på detta vapensystem förefaller vara varierande, och Belarus flygvapen har som bekant fått ingripa ett antal gång när Shahed-UAV-er förirrat sig in i landets luftrum. Där tvekar man inte att skjuta, men först efter tillstånd från Moskva, förstås.

[Enceladus]

Enligt ovanstående artikel väntas Rysslands centralbank höja räntan ytterligare i september:

Russia Hikes Key Rate, Might Do So Again as War Fuels Price Rises

Russia’s central bank raised its key interest rate for the second straight meeting of its policymakers in an effort to tame a pickup in inflation driven by the diversion of manpower and other resources to sustain the country’s conflict with Ukraine.

With inflation surging, the central bank raised its key interest rate five times in 2023, before pausing as inflation appeared to cool. But prices began to rise more rapidly over recent months as the war entered its third year.

The Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate on Friday to 19% from 18%, well above its mid-2023 low of 7.5%, and close to the peak of 20% that immediately followed the February 2022 invasion of neighboring Ukraine.

Rysslands centralbank höjde mycket riktigt räntan till 19 procent - och flaggar samtidigt för att det kan komma fler höjningar. Blir det 20 procent i oktober?

Oil Price Rout Drives Russian Revenues to Seven-Month Low

Why the Kremlin Is Drifting Closer to Houthi Rebels in Yemen

Of course, Russia is not the only external force taking an interest in what is happening in Yemen. Neighboring Saudi Arabia has always supported the PLC. The United Arab Emirates helps the STC, which allows Abu Dhabi to explore oil fields in southern Yemen. The Houthis, for their part, have for many years received weapons, money, and information support from Iran.

[...]

Advisers from Russia’s foreign military intelligence agency, the GRU, are now working in Sanaa under the guise of humanitarian aid workers. This has been reported both by media citing U.S. intelligence, and by my own sources close to the Houthis. According to them, Iranian military instructors and other specialists have been operating in Yemen for many years under a similar scheme.

[...]

What Moscow gets in exchange is the blessing for its policies from pro-Iranian forces in the Middle East. On February 21, 2022—three days before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine—the Houthis expressed support for the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk, which are internationally recognized as Ukrainian territory, as independent republics. Hamas leaders have voiced hope that Russia’s “special military operation will lead to the formation of a multipolar world.” And Lebanon’s Hezbollah even supplies Russia with men to fight in Ukraine in exchange for Russian weapons.

Har Putin verkligen råd att misshaga Mellanösterns monarker MBS och MBZ i ett läge då Ryssland desperat behöver höga oljepriser? Bibi är också en faktor:

This Israeli landing operation alone explains why Netanyahu refused to help Ukraine with military equipment to defend vs Moscow.
Site raided by SOF is only few km from the Russian S-400 Air Defense System in #Syria.
Make these agreements possible w/ Putin is Israeli top priority.

Natten till måndagen slog Israel till mot en iransk bas i nordvästra Syrien och tog flera iranier till fånga - med Rysslands goda minne.

Sedan finns det ju anledning att ställa frågan om var gränsen mellan "fearlessly looking beyond the hydrogen hype to provide a balanced view" och ren propagandism går (källkritik kallas det). Den gränsen har i vart fall Enceladus-kollektivet aldrig respekterat. Själv tänker jag förstås inte låta mig dras in i Enceladus-kollektivets batteri-kulturkrig. Jag har fullt upp med kollektivet i andra trådar, trots Enceladus-kollektivets patologiska behov av att citera mig i alla möjliga och omöjliga sammanhang.

Kazakhstan’s Hydrogen Ambitions Should Extend Beyond Exports

Recent years have seen a wave of global interest in the European Union’s plans to import up to 10 million tons of green hydrogen (hydrogen produced by the electrolysis of water powered by renewable electricity) by 2030. The EU and member states like Germany have stepped up their engagement on hydrogen with a wide range of partners around the globe, including Kazakhstan. In November 2022, the EU and Kazakhstan signed a strategic partnership on green hydrogen and critical raw materials, and in March 2023, Germany opened a Hydrogen Diplomacy Office in Astana.

Yet Europe’s vision of ramping up the international hydrogen trade is running into obstacles. Cross-border hydrogen infrastructure is expensive; cost decreases for hydrogen have been slow coming; and industrial demand for clean hydrogen has been lower than expected. (Other types of clean, or low-carbon, hydrogen include nuclear hydrogen, where electrolysis is powered by electricity from nuclear sources, and blue hydrogen, produced from natural gas with CO2 emissions captured.) In July 2024, the European Court of Auditors made headlines with a report urging a “reality check” for the EU’s hydrogen policy and its ambitious production and import targets. In the context of these delays, potential producers like Kazakhstan would do well to prioritize the hydrogen-driven decarbonization of their domestic economies.

[...]

Politically, the EU’s vision of large-scale hydrogen imports is not shared by all member states. Germany has been the most active proponent of hydrogen trade with third countries. In its hydrogen import strategy adopted in July 2024—the first strategic document of this kind in the EU—Germany announced plans to import 50–70 percent of its expected hydrogen consumption by 2030, and likely an even greater share by 2045. In contrast, most other member states choose to focus on promoting domestic hydrogen production and consumption. A few, like Spain and Portugal, have major export ambitions of their own, and some, like France, are skeptical about imports more generally, viewing them as fostering a short-sighted dependency.

Tyskland har en urusel energipolitik, och det finns inga ursäkter. Dessutom spelar Kazakstan dubbla roller:

Kazakhstan’s ARC Group is servicing Russian Su-30SMs in a way that bypasses sanctions, using French Thales and Safran equipment.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Sedan finns det ju anledning att ställa frågan om var gränsen mellan "fearlessly looking beyond the hydrogen hype to provide a balanced view" och ren propagandism går (källkritik kallas det). Den gränsen har i vart fall Enceladus-kollektivet aldrig respekterat. Själv tänker jag förstås inte låta mig dras in i Enceladus-kollektivets batteri-kulturkrig. Jag har fullt upp med kollektivet i andra trådar, trots Enceladus-kollektivets patologiska behov av att citera mig i alla möjliga och omöjliga sammanhang.

Citat från annan tråd, i annat ämne - underkänt!

[Enceladus]

Russian oil prices fall below $60 per barrel for first time in 2024

In September, a drop in global oil prices pushed Brent crude to its lowest level since late 2021, which also reduced the value of Russian Urals crude and hurt oil company revenues. At the start of the week, the price of Russian oil at Baltic Sea ports fell below $60 per barrel for the first time this year, reports Bloomberg on Sept. 13.

On Sept. 10, Urals crude was priced at $57.44 per barrel in Primorsk and $57.79 per barrel in Ust-Luga, while in Novorossiysk it was slightly higher at $60.33 per barrel.

[...]

The Russian Finance Ministry's budget projections assumed Urals crude would be $70 per barrel, about 17% higher than current prices.

Putin tvingas sälja sin viktigaste exportvara allt billigare. Samtidigt går ryska oljeraffinaderier på tomgång i allt större utsträckning. Det går inte bra för Ryssland!

Will falling oil prices hurt Russia?

How far does the price of oil have to fall before it becomes a problem? Russia planned its budget on the basis of an oil price of $71.3 per barrel. This price level could be considered comfortable for Russia. Because of Western sanctions, Russian exporters have to sell their oil at a significant discount. The price of “Brent minus $10” is a good reference point for what Russia is actually earning. But even taking this discount into account, the average this year has not been too far from $70. So far, so good (or bad, if you are hoping for economic problems in Russia).

[...]

The sensitivity analysis conducted by the Ministry of Finance is probably incomplete. Oil and oil product exports account for about 50% of Russia’s export revenues, but unfortunately for Russia, the prices of the rest of its exports are closely correlated with oil: Prices for coal, gas, metals, ores, etc. are mostly driven up or down by the same factors, such as economic dynamics in China.

[...]

This means that Russia’s “shadow reserves” are a far cry from the insurance policy that central bank reserves in Western currencies used to be. Bringing them home will be a complex task and probably only partially successful. As a consequence of Western sanctions on Russian reserve assets and Russian spending on the war, Russia is not well prepared for a scenario of “lower oil prices for longer”. The result would be a significant devaluation of the ruble, leading to high inflation. In this scenario, real incomes, which have risen significantly since the start of the full-scale invasion and have led to much economic optimism among the Russian population, would take a painful hit.

På grund av sanktioner har Ryssland en plötslig brist på likvida tillgångar. Således kan låga oljepriser medföra en svagare rubel och ännu högre inflation.

Rysslands energikris: slut på sovjetiska resurser

Problemen med Rysslands energiproduktion har dock djupa rötter. Enligt en rapport från Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) utvecklade Sovjetunionen sin oljeproduktion kraftigt mellan åren 1970 och 1988, medan gasproduktionen tredubblades. Men redan då började tecken på framtida problem synas. CIA förutsåg en svår tid för den sovjetiska energisektorn på nittiotalet, med minskande oljeproduktion och ett växande motstånd mot kärnkraft.

[...]

Efter år 2000 har Ryssland främst fokuserat på att utöka produktionen av råolja och naturgas. Andra energikällor, såsom kol, har visat mindre tillväxt, medan många andra sektorer har stagnerat. Enligt data från Internationella energiorganet (IEA) står Ryssland inför en utmanande framtid om de inte lyckas utveckla mer avancerade energilösningar.

I en rapport från sommaren 2022 förutspådde Londons International Institute for Strategic Studies att de sovjetiska energireserverna snart skulle vara förbrukade. Stora aktörer på den ryska energimarknaden är nu tvingade att utveckla tekniskt utmanande reserver. Samtidigt, utan tillgång till västerländsk teknologi och kapital, blir det svårare för Ryssland att upprätthålla sin olje- och gasproduktion.

Ryssland lever på lånad tid. Klockan tickar!

[Enceladus]

Jaha ja, alla dessa ovanstående utläggningar och citat avsåg bara att försöka komma åt Tyskland och Scholz. Sådana kannstöperier får Enceladus-kollektivet ta i den politiska tråden, och låta bli skräpa ned denna.

The woes of Olaf Scholz

Some in Scholz’s Social Democratic party (SPD) are already suggesting in private that he should be dropped from the ticket in next year’s national election, and replaced by a more popular politician — such as defence minister Boris Pistorius or Anke Rehlinger, prime minister of the state of Saarland and a former shot-putter.

“There are a lot of people in the parliamentary party pointing to how [US President] Joe Biden made way for Kamala Harris and asking whether that could be a precedent for us,” said one SPD MP. “Looking at how he’s doing in the polls, you can understand why.”

Indeed, according to pollsters Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, no chancellor since German reunification in 1990 has had such low approval ratings. A Wahlen poll last week showed 77 per cent found Scholz a “weak leader” who can’t get his way.

Jag är väl knappast ensam om att anse att "fredskanslern" Scholz måste bort. Betrakta exempelvis hur Harris uppvaktar polska amerikaner i Pennsylvania:

Kriget i Ukraina var självfallet ett av ämnena som avhandlades, och Harris gjorde ett starkt intryck i debatten:

US election polls: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?

A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,400 registered voters who had heard at least something about the debate found that 53% said Harris won and 24% said Trump won. It also suggested Harris had a lead of five points over her rival nationally, 47% to 42% - up from 45% to 41% in August.

A YouGov poll of 1,400 [snusk] in the US had similar conclusions - of those who had watched the debate, 55% said Harris won and 25% said Trump. Even so, it found no change in voting intentions, with Harris having the same lead of 46% to 45% as before the debate.

[...]

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin had all been Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his path to winning the presidency in 2016. Biden retook them in 2020 and if Harris can do the same this year then she will be on course to win the election.

Stödet till Ukraina sägs vara synnerligen högt i Rostbältet, vilket Harris utnyttjade i debatten. SPD borde lära sig av USA. Är Scholz en lika dålig förlorare?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Bra, jobbat! På andra försöket kom inlägget i rätt tråd. Nästa gång kanske det går på första!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

En artikel i SvD visar på hur amerikanska fascister är Putins hantlangare: Youtube-stjärnorna fick sin lön av Putin

Det är det nu kraschade mediebolaget Tenet: 2024 Tenet Media investigation

och ett gäng amerikanska högerextremister och fascister som avses. I artikeln nämns bland dem särskilt Tim Pool:

Pool has frequently criticized aid to Ukraine as a provocation against Russia, and called Ukraine "one of the greatest enemies of our nation" in August 2024, after allegations that a Ukrainian was involved in the Nord Stream pipelines sabotage.[62][94] Pool has supported Trump in the 2024 United States presidential election.[62]

Och vem kommer att benåda dem som ev. blir föremål för federalt åtal pga. ovanstående?

[Enceladus]

Påståendet "Iran - en av Mellanösterns två kärnvapenmakter" är dessutom felaktigt och bara ett primitivt försök att parafrasera mina formuleringar.

Alarm in UK and US over possible Iran-Russia nuclear deal

“For its part, Russia is sharing technology that Iran seeks – this is a two-way street – including on nuclear issues as well as some space information,” Blinken said, accusing the two countries of engaging in destabilising activities that sow “even greater insecurity” around the world.

Britain, France and Germany jointly warned last week that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium had “continued to grow significantly, without any credible civilian justification” and that it had accumulated four “significant quantities” that each could be used to make a nuclear bomb.

But it is not clear how much technical knowhow Tehran has to build a nuclear weapon at this stage, or how quickly it could do so. Working with experienced Russian specialists or using Russian knowledge would help speed up the manufacturing process, however – though Iran denies that it is trying to make a nuclear bomb.

Det är väl bara en tidsfråga innan Iran blir en kärnvapenmakt, och den tiden kan förkortas av Putins misslyckade invasion. Iran får nog även hjälp på annat håll:

The Chamran-1 satellite, which was launched into space by the Qaem-100 satellite carrier, was put into a 550-kilometre (340-mile) orbit and its first signals had been received, the media said, adding that the solid fuel carrier was designed and built by the Aerospace Force of the Revolutionary Guards.

[...]

In January, Iranian media reported that the Sorayya satellite had been launched into a 750 km orbit, the highest by the country so far.

The U.S. military alleges the long-range ballistic technology used to put satellites into orbit could also allow Tehran to launch long-range weapons, possibly including nuclear warheads.

Kommer Bibi någonsin att ångra sitt samarbete med Putin? Men han prioriterar kanske inte Israels säkerhet. Putin verkar i alla fall vara byxrädd för responsen:

Likely response to #Ukrainian air threats, possibly news that Storm Shadow may be used on Russian territory.

#Russian Navy vessels appear to have completed evacuated Novorossiysk today.

This follows a similar drill on September 11 2024 #OSINT

Looks like they may have dispersed further south down the coast past Gelendzhik

Potential grouping of 3x vessels and what could be a Grigorovich a bit further south from them

While it appears that the majority of the BSF left Novorossiysk, there are a few, especially cowardly vessels, that hid amongst the commercial vessels

2x Bora Class
1x Ropucha Class
1x Krivak Class

high res imagery from Airbus confirms the spots

‘Difficult position’ awaiting Iran's president in New York

Since Pezeshkian assumed office in August, Iran has executed more than 90 prisoners. As the anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death in custody approaches—a tragic event that sparked widespread protests in 2022—Pezeshkian's government has intensified its crackdown. Family members of those who were killed, blinded, or injured during the protests are now being arrested.

[...]

According to commentator Abbas Abdi in Tehran, the Iranian Judiciary has been issuing travel bans for several filmmakers following the international success of Iranian underground movies at the Venice Film Festival. Abdi called the practice "harassment of citizens" and called on the government to be accountable for the violation of citizens' rights.

[...]

Meanwhile, Iranian media have been accusing the United States and Europe of "psychological warfare" against Iran by stating that Tehran has sent hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia to be used in the war against Ukraine. In an article on proreform Fararu website foreign relations analyst Ali Bigdeli opined that the accusation is aimed at putting President Pezeshkian in a difficult position when he is going to face reporters in New York soon during the annual UN General Assembly.

Vad vill de iranska reformisterna egentligen åstadkomma med sin antivästliga propaganda? Är inte deras syfte att föreställa ett alternativ till principalisterna?

Och vem kommer att benåda dem som ev. blir föremål för federalt åtal pga. ovanstående?

Why Harris allies are running Ukraine ads in Pennsylvania

The campaign, run by the America’s Future Majority Fund super PAC, is expected to include rounds of TV and digital ads in Pennsylvania, followed by two more crucial swing states — Michigan and Wisconsin. All three states have sizable populations with roots in Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and elsewhere across Eastern Europe.

In the presidential debate on Tuesday, Harris appealed directly to the “800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania,” arguing that Poland would be Russia’s next target after Ukraine. “If Donald Trump were president, Putin would be sitting in Kyiv right now,” Harris asserted.

[...]

But Malinowski argued small margins will matter in a race as tight as 2024. “If this is going to be a close election settled by a few thousand votes in one or more of those three states, there’s no question in my mind the Polish, Ukrainian, Lithuanian and other Central Eastern European Americans could decide the outcome,” he told NatSec Daily. (Malinowski, who was a former senior Obama administration State Department official before he served in Congress, was born in Poland.)

Det sägs att katter har nio liv. Hur många har Trump?