Militär teknik och Ukrainakriget

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Using Russia's own funds instead of U.S. money could alleviate Republican worries about financial burdens, and House Speaker Mike Johnson, a member of the Republican Party, voiced interest in the plan.

För dessa pengar skulle Ukraina vilja ha sju Patriot-system som skyddar hela landet. Tydligen anser Zelenskyj att luftförsvarssystem kan garantera något!

Det har ju figurerat mängder av olika siffror. Som här

resident of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that 25 Patriot surface-to-air missile systems with 6-8 batteries each are needed to fully cover Ukraine's airspace. However, the question of where to find such a quantity became even more challenging.

Despite Germany's declared intentions to find them, the task of locating even a few additional systems is exceedingly challenging due to the limited quantity available. The crux of the matter lies in the limited availability of such systems in armaments.

Although there are indeed systems with similar capabilities to the Patriot, one of them has already been transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces - the SAMP/T from Eurosam.

Från Frankrike verkar Ukraina i varje fall inte få några fler SAMP/T-system, när nu världen istället står i kö för att köpa Patriot. Man startar inte produktionslinjerna för en så liten order. Detsamma kan antagligen sägas om KEPD-350 Taurus. Så utarmar Europa sin egen försvarsindustri. MBDA får börja tillverka Patriot-missiler istället. Här skryter amerikanska Defense News helt ohämmat om Patriot-systemets framgångar:
How Patriot proved itself in Ukraine and secured a fresh future

Ukrainska Defense Express spekulerar i israeliska David's Sling är ett alternativ.
Considering Supplying David's Sling to Ukraine: A Potential Alternative to Patriot and SAMP/T Systems

Det verkar helt osannolikt, Netanyahu har vi inte visat sig vara särskilt pigg på att hjälpa Ukraina.
Finlands högerregering har i alla fall, utan att darr på manschetten, köpt in systemet eftersom det anses vara bättre (alla israeliska vapensystem påstås vara bättre): https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10045531

Uppenbart är i alla fall att USA/Nato helt underskattat uthålligheten i den ryska ballistiska missilkampanjen.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Tyskland säger sig i varje fall inte har fler Patriot-missiler att donera, utan efterlyser en mera samordnad anskaffning mellan Ukrainas partner-länder:
Baerbock calls for assessment of Patriot systems for rapid delivery to Ukraine

Det gäller ju inte bara missiler utan hela system.
Germany's Initiative: Seeking Patriot Systems Worldwide for Ukraine - Locations, Numbers, and Potential Challenges

Visserligen säger sig tillverkarna vilja rampa upp produktionen, men det är inte gjort i en handvändning:
How companies plan to ramp up production of Patriot missiles

Och det brådskar! Putin tror att han snart kan börja behandla Charkiv som han behandlade Mariupol.

[Enceladus]

Och det brådskar! Putin tror att han snart kan börja behandla Charkiv som han behandlade Mariupol.

US to sell to Ukraine $138 million in HAWK air defense upgrades

The United States will sell Ukraine up to $138 million worth of equipment to maintain and upgrade its HAWK air defense systems to help defend against Russian drone and cruise missile attacks, a U.S. State Department official told Reuters on Tuesday.

[...]

Tuesday's emergency foreign military sale is worth as much as $138 million, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Although Ukraine has run out of many sources of U.S. funds, Kyiv was given a grant of $300 million in foreign military financing as part of the annual defense spending bill recently signed into law. The grant money will be used to pay for the equipment, which includes engineering and integration for communications and refurbishment of HAWK fire units.

Visst brådskar det. Därför passar USA på att sälja gammalt skräp som Ukraina desperat behöver.

US worried its drones failed to turn tide in Ukraine – WSJ

Skydio's drones kept going off course and being lost due to Russian electronic warfare systems. The company has gone back to developing and building a new fleet.

The article noted that most American start-ups' small UAVs have failed to prove themselves in combat, dispelling the companies' hopes that a badge of combat testing would generate sales and attention. It's also bad news for the Pentagon, which needs a reliable supply of thousands of small uncrewed aerial vehicles.

The WSJ noted that US companies still lack a significant presence in the first war where small drones are playing a critical role. US-made UAVs tend to be expensive, faulty and complicated to repair, say drone company executives, the Ukrainians on the front line, Ukrainian government officials and former US military officials.

Lacking solutions in the West, Ukraine has turned to cheaper Chinese products to supplement its drone arsenal.

Det visar sig att amerikanska drönare inte levererar i verkligheten. Då vänder sig Ukraina till Kina. Som sagt, väst har mycket att lära av Kina när det gäller pris.

Ukraine’s Cheap Drones Are Decimating Russia’s Tanks

More than two-thirds of the Russian tanks that Ukraine’s military has destroyed in recent months have been taken out using first-person-view (FPV) drones, a NATO official told Foreign Policy, an increasing sign of Kyiv’s reliance on the unpiloted aircraft as it awaits more artillery ammunition from the United States and other Western countries.

[...]

Analysts tracking the Ukrainian military believe the attacks are having mixed results. Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia program who last traveled to Ukraine to embed last November, said the overall accuracy of FPV drones is less than 50 percent. It’s an experienced pilot who is going to score a “kill” of a tank—and the soldiers inside—with an FPV drone, not a newbie.

Even those drones that get through Russia’s increasingly sophisticated, if unchic, countermeasures—boxes of signals equipment strapped to tanks—might not deal a fatal blow. “You usually don’t kill a tank the first few times,” Lee said. “It can take 10 or more [FPV drones] to kill a tank.”

Still, Russia has a good reason to cover up its tanks with camouflage and jamming equipment, Lee said. It is running low on armored vehicles and tanks. If Ukraine keeps attriting at this rate and Russia keeps sending in more tanks to replace the destroyed ones at the rate it has been, the Kremlin could lose its numerical edge in tanks, which could make it more difficult for the Russians to carry out offensive operations in the future.

[...]

And with limited air defense munitions, Ukrainian troops have rigged heavy machines with sensors to shoot down most of the Iranian-made Shahed suicide drones that are overflying their positions. The NATO official, speaking anonymously based on conditions set by the alliance, said Ukraine’s hit rate against Shahed drones with simple machine guns and small caliber weapons is about 80 percent. It’s not a complete fix, though: Ukrainian officials have spent recent days urging the United States to send more Patriot air defense systems.

Det sovjetiska arvet tryter. Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 15 264 enheter, varav 2 906 stridsvagnar. Vidare blev det ännu en vådabekämpning i luften.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Och det brådskar! Putin tror att han snart kan börja behandla Charkiv som han behandlade Mariupol.

US to sell to Ukraine $138 million in HAWK air defense upgrades

The United States will sell Ukraine up to $138 million worth of equipment to maintain and upgrade its HAWK air defense systems to help defend against Russian drone and cruise missile attacks, a U.S. State Department official told Reuters on Tuesday.

[...]

Tuesday's emergency foreign military sale is worth as much as $138 million, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Although Ukraine has run out of many sources of U.S. funds, Kyiv was given a grant of $300 million in foreign military financing as part of the annual defense spending bill recently signed into law. The grant money will be used to pay for the equipment, which includes engineering and integration for communications and refurbishment of HAWK fire units.

Visst brådskar det. Därför passar USA på att sälja gammalt skräp som Ukraina desperat behöver.

Deet är knappast gammal skräp Ukraina behöver. HAWK skrev jag om redan här:

HAWK, som också nämns, är ett gammalt USA-system (började utvecklas på 1950-talet, men har moderniserats i flera omgångar) som många tidigare användare, inkl. USA själv har fasat ut, bl.a. eftersom förmågan att bekämpa ballistiska missiler, men även kryssningsmissiler, har ifrågasatts. Sverige använder det fortfarande under namnet robotsystem 97, men vill ersätta det med jättedyra Patriot. Nåja, någon nytta gör det väl, men knappast något för framtiden. Faktum är att norsk-amerikanska NASMS uppstod ur ett försök att modernisera Hawk-systemet.

Hawk-missilen MIM-23 ser ut som en riktig rymdraket, med fenor och hela faderullan.

Genomgående för missilbaserat luftvärn är att missilerna är dyra (se tidigare resonemang) och har begränsad tillgänglighet.

Som jag skrev då: "Nåja, någon nytta gör det väl, men knappast något för framtiden". Nu är vi i framtiden, och HAWK kan knappast bekämpa ballistiska missiler med någon större framgång.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

US worried its drones failed to turn tide in Ukraine – WSJ

Skydio's drones kept going off course and being lost due to Russian electronic warfare systems. The company has gone back to developing and building a new fleet.

The article noted that most American start-ups' small UAVs have failed to prove themselves in combat, dispelling the companies' hopes that a badge of combat testing would generate sales and attention. It's also bad news for the Pentagon, which needs a reliable supply of thousands of small uncrewed aerial vehicles.

The WSJ noted that US companies still lack a significant presence in the first war where small drones are playing a critical role. US-made UAVs tend to be expensive, faulty and complicated to repair, say drone company executives, the Ukrainians on the front line, Ukrainian government officials and former US military officials.

Lacking solutions in the West, Ukraine has turned to cheaper Chinese products to supplement its drone arsenal.

Det visar sig att amerikanska drönare inte levererar i verkligheten. Då vänder sig Ukraina till Kina. Som sagt, väst har mycket att lära av Kina när det gäller pris.

" visar sig att amerikanska drönare inte levererar i verkligheten" är ju en kraftig överdrift. Artikeln handlar i huvudsak om Skydio. Det företaget lade Enceladus-kollektivet ut texten om för nästan ett år sedan, genom diverse citat. Lägg märke till att även den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturens DJI nämndes redan då. Är deras produkter mera motståndskraftiga mot rysk elektronisk krigföring, månntro?

Newly Rich US Defense Tech Titans Seek Fresh Fortunes in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine appears to be central to that. Tech billionaires like former Google Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt, Palantir CEO Alex Karp, and Palmer Luckey, a founder of drone maker Anduril, have met with Ukrainian officials on visits to the war zone. Bolstering their brands and showing off their toys, they hope, will show Washington they can go toe-to-toe with Chinese tech. Anduril is among the leaders of the VC-backed defense tech boom, achieving a valuation of $8.5 billion in a December funding round.

[...]

In Ukraine, drones made by DJI had become ubiquitous in the war because they could be bought off the shelf for reconnaissance or could be easily weaponized. Thanks to its innovative product launches and economies of scale that allow it to keep prices low, DJI has largely dominated the industry, according to Adam Bry, the founder of Skydio, a US drone company. (Resnick is a former DJI intern.)

But DJI drones are far from perfect. Resnick said they can be tracked by Russians using DJI’s own drone-detection platform. Russians have also identified communication links and other data such as flight paths using the platform. “These things that started off looking like consumer drones have become critical tools for national security,” said Bry.

So Skydio and Brinc have moved in, trying to offer a solution. Bry said the war in Ukraine showed US companies can still edge out China, despite its current dominance. After winning a five-year contract for as much as $100 million with the US Army in February to equip soldiers for reconnaissance and surveillance, Skydio was valued at more than $2 billion in a funding round.

Schmidt skrev nyss en artikel om teknikens betydelse för framtida krig. USA vill inte tappa ledningen till Kina, och många företag prövar sig fram i Ukraina.

Som sagt, väst har mycket att lära av Kina när det gäller pris.

Ja, och hur mycket får det kosta att hålla tillbaka den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen: Pacific problems: Why the US disagrees on the cost of deterring China

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ukraine’s Cheap Drones Are Decimating Russia’s Tanks

Analysts tracking the Ukrainian military believe the attacks are having mixed results. Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia program who last traveled to Ukraine to embed last November, said the overall accuracy of FPV drones is less than 50 percent. It’s an experienced pilot who is going to score a “kill” of a tank—and the soldiers inside—with an FPV drone, not a newbie.

Even those drones that get through Russia’s increasingly sophisticated, if unchic, countermeasures—boxes of signals equipment strapped to tanks—might not deal a fatal blow. “You usually don’t kill a tank the first few times,” Lee said. “It can take 10 or more [FPV drones] to kill a tank.”

Still, Russia has a good reason to cover up its tanks with camouflage and jamming equipment, Lee said. It is running low on armored vehicles and tanks. If Ukraine keeps attriting at this rate and Russia keeps sending in more tanks to replace the destroyed ones at the rate it has been, the Kremlin could lose its numerical edge in tanks, which could make it more difficult for the Russians to carry out offensive operations in the future.

Det vore ju klädsamt om Enceladus-kollektivet kunde sluta använda floskeln "tryter" i tid och otid.

I vart fall är träffprocenten tydligen inte så hög som man skulle kunna tro. Däremot kan man ju fråga sig vilken roll pansarvapnet kommer att ha på framtida slagfält. Ryssarna har i alla fall visat upp en bizarr stridsvagn, med ett tilläggspansar av "sköldpaddsmodell".
Bizarre Russian tank spotted in Ukraine

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

And with limited air defense munitions, Ukrainian troops have rigged heavy machines with sensors to shoot down most of the Iranian-made Shahed suicide drones that are overflying their positions. The NATO official, speaking anonymously based on conditions set by the alliance, said Ukraine’s hit rate against Shahed drones with simple machine guns and small caliber weapons is about 80 percent. It’s not a complete fix, though: Ukrainian officials have spent recent days urging the United States to send more Patriot air defense systems.

En artikel i amerikanska Defense News beskriver hur Ukraina försöker bekämpa Shahed-UAV-erna med vad de har tillgång till, utan att i onödan förbruka missilsystem som behövs för att bekämpa mer kvalificerade ryska attackvektorer. Dvs. i huvudsak LV-kulsprutor och enkla automatkanoner som den gamla sovjetiska dubbelpipiga 23mm automatkanonen ZU-23-2
ofta försedda med mer eller mindre improviserade riktmedel

Ukrainian forces rig machine gun networks to down Russian drones

Ju enklare vapen som används, desto större krav på en fungerande stridsledning, för att inte få en orimligt stor ammunitionsförbrukning. Jmfr. ex.vis med Sergej Makarenkos uppsats: viewtopic.php?p=417822#p417822

På sikt måste dessa enklare sovjetiska vapen kompletteras med modernare system som ex.vis EOS Slinger, som Ukraina sägs ha lagt en order på 100 st. av. Moderna system har vapendel och riktmedel sammanbyggda, och integrerade i ett lokalt, datoriserat eldledningssystem.


Australiensiska EOS Slingers vapenstation

Dessutom har moderna system bättre granater, med mer avancerade tändrör, vilket håller nere ammunitionsförbrukningen.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Behovet av explosivämnen har jag framhållit många gånger, senast här: viewtopic.php?p=417398#p417398

Det räcker inte med att smida granater, man måste fylla dem med något också. Och helst inte klusterammunition. Och så behövs drivladdningar också: viewtopic.php?p=418574#p418574

Och tändrör! Ja, det är inte klokt så mycket som behövs.

Och det är konkurrens om dessa insatsvaror: Ammunitionstillverkning i Europa sinkas: ”Saknas krut och sprängämne” (SvT)

[Enceladus]

The WarZone kan i alla fall inte verfiera att denna attack ledde till några större skador: No Major Damage Seen At Russian Air Base After Drone Attack

Signaturen "The Military Watch" har däremot identifierat ryska förluster:

Today's sat imagery of the Yeysk Air Base. It looks like that a significant portion of the wing is missing from the Beriev Be-200. Apparently it is also leaking fluids all over.

Seeing that in the Sentinel-2 imagery taken on 7 April the damaged Be-200 (maybe even its wreck) has already been removed, there won't be any new photos. Which leaves us only with the Planet Labs 5th April image provided by @MT_Anderson

In the left image you can see how the intact Beriev Be-200 of the Russian Naval Aviation looks like. In the right one we can see that the part of the wing has been blown off (red arrow), the remains are lying on the tarmac. I think the under-wing float might be there too (blue).

Amfibieflygplanet Beriev Be-200 sägs vara ett av världens bästa flygplan för brandbekämpning. Ryska försvarsdepartementet har beställt tre sådana flygplan.

Det sovjetiska arvet tryter. Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 15 264 enheter, varav 2 906 stridsvagnar. Vidare blev det ännu en vådabekämpning i luften.

Som tidigare nämnt har Ryssland också förlorat en helikopter i en vådabekämpning, även om försvarsdepartementet hävdar att det berodde på utrustningsfel:

Apparently a Russian Air Force Mil Mi-24 was destroyed recently, both crew members did not survive. This was reported today by the Helicopterpilot TG channel

Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 15 336 enheter, varav 2 920 stridsvagnar, 108 flygplan och 136 helikoptrar. Observera de två nya flygfarkostförlusterna!

France’s Rafale Is Set To Be Serbia’s Next Fighter

Serbia would use the Rafales to bring much-needed modernization to its aging fighter fleet, which is made up of Soviet-era MiG-29 Fulcrums. These were first acquired by the then Yugoslavia in the 1980s. Survivors of Operation Allied Force in 1999 were more recently supplemented by secondhand MiG-29s from Russian and Belarusian stocks. The aircraft have also been moderately upgraded.

Clearly, the Rafale is massively more capable than the Cold War-era MiG-29, 14 of which are currently in active Serbian service.

[...]

Should the 12-aircraft deal for Serbia now be signed off, it will continue a winning streak for the Rafale on the export market. Already in service with the air forces of Croatia, Egypt, Greece, India, and Qatar, the fighter has also been selected by Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates. Late last year, Saudi Arabia also emerged as a possible customer, driven primarily by concerns over export restrictions on the Eurofighter Typhoon.

Vad har Serbien för val? Som bekant är Ryssland ute ur leken...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

The WarZone kan i alla fall inte verfiera att denna attack ledde till några större skador: No Major Damage Seen At Russian Air Base After Drone Attack

Signaturen "The Military Watch" har däremot identifierat ryska förluster:

Today's sat imagery of the Yeysk Air Base. It looks like that a significant portion of the wing is missing from the Beriev Be-200. Apparently it is also leaking fluids all over.

Seeing that in the Sentinel-2 imagery taken on 7 April the damaged Be-200 (maybe even its wreck) has already been removed, there won't be any new photos. Which leaves us only with the Planet Labs 5th April image provided by @MT_Anderson

In the left image you can see how the intact Beriev Be-200 of the Russian Naval Aviation looks like. In the right one we can see that the part of the wing has been blown off (red arrow), the remains are lying on the tarmac. I think the under-wing float might be there too (blue).

Amfibieflygplanet Beriev Be-200 sägs vara ett av världens bästa flygplan för brandbekämpning. Ryska försvarsdepartementet har beställt tre sådana flygplan.

Ja, det får vara hur det vill med den saken, The WarZone är i alla fall tydliga med hur de analyserar det för dem tillgängliga materialet. Själv fäster jag som regel inget större avseende vid uppgifter i Musk-kloaken.

Beriev Be-200 har jag skrivit om tidigare. Självklart anser ryssarna att deras flygplan är bäst. Tyvärr har de lite svårt att få tag på motorer ibland.

The two ZMKB Progress D-436TP turbofan engines are rated at 73.6kN each. The engines were developed by the Progress Design Bureau and are manufactured by the Motorsich plant in Zaporozhye.

Sedan skulle de visst ha hjälp med motorerna av franska SAFRAN. Nu är det nog inte aktuellt heller.

Typisk Beriev-siluett, jmfr. ex.vis med Beriev-200, ett amfibieplan för bl.a. vattenbombning vid skogsbränder.


Tyvärr är det inte vattenbomber som faller över Ukraina. Här ser vi ingen mindre än Vladimir Vladimirovitj Putin demonstrera hur det ska gå till när man släcker bränder med en Beriev-200:


Men tror jag inte att han har sin oduglige försvarsminister Sergej Kuzjugetovitj Sjojgu med sig i planet också (1:20 in i filmen).

[Enceladus]

Ja, det får vara hur det vill med den saken, The WarZone är i alla fall tydliga med hur de analyserar det för dem tillgängliga materialet. Själv fäster jag som regel inget större avseende vid uppgifter i Musk-kloaken.

Ukraina attackerade flera flygbaser i förra veckans "massiva attack", bland annat Morozovsk i Rostov oblast, Engels i Saratov oblast och Jejsk i Krasnodar kraj.

Beriev Be-200 har jag skrivit om tidigare. Självklart anser ryssarna att deras flygplan är bäst. Tyvärr har de lite svårt att få tag på motorer ibland.

Beriev Be-200: What Should You Know About The World’s Only Amphibious Jet Aircraft?

The Beriev Be-200 Altair is a jet-powered amphibious flying boat designed and built by the Beriev Aircraft Company in Russia. Perhaps the most famous Beriev aircraft is the iconic Beriev A-50 Mainstay AEWCS aircraft, which has become even more famous after at least two were shot down and destroyed in the war in Ukraine.

The Soviet Union and its Ukrainian and Russian successors have produced many fascinating aircraft. The Soviet Union broke many world aviation records and developed some of the world's most significant and most interesting ekranoplans. Today, Russia boasts the world's only amphibious jet aircraft - the Beriev Be-200.

[...]

Notably, Russian Aviation Insider reported in 2018 that the US company Seaplane Global Air Services had placed an order for 4 Be-200s with the option of 6 more. It is unclear what happened with the order since then.

Varför försökte USA i så fall köpa detta flygplan?

[Enceladus]

Det tidigare inlägget har flyttats till en annan tråd.

Problemet är bara att det här är de enda offensiva operationer Ukraina kan genomföra just nu. Att angripa ryska uppmarschområden och (för)störa den ryska logistiken kräver kraftigare vapenverkan, och det vore tacknämligt om USA kunde tillhandahålla den istället för pekpinnar.

Brady Africk håller med: Let Ukraine strike military targets in Russia with Western weapons

When explosions rocked the Russian city of Belgorod late last year, the Kremlin baselessly blamed Ukraine’s use of Czech-supplied weapons. When a transport plane was shot down over Russian airspace, the Kremlin asserted that a US-supplied air defense system was used. Meanwhile, Russia has not hesitated to lob North Korean missiles and Iranian drones at Ukraine. Russian missiles have also violated the airspace of Poland – a Nato member– before striking Ukraine.

Är Iran och Nordkorea bättre allierade än väst?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Beriev Be-200 har jag skrivit om tidigare. Självklart anser ryssarna att deras flygplan är bäst. Tyvärr har de lite svårt att få tag på motorer ibland.

Beriev Be-200: What Should You Know About The World’s Only Amphibious Jet Aircraft?

The Beriev Be-200 Altair is a jet-powered amphibious flying boat designed and built by the Beriev Aircraft Company in Russia. Perhaps the most famous Beriev aircraft is the iconic Beriev A-50 Mainstay AEWCS aircraft, which has become even more famous after at least two were shot down and destroyed in the war in Ukraine.

The Soviet Union and its Ukrainian and Russian successors have produced many fascinating aircraft. The Soviet Union broke many world aviation records and developed some of the world's most significant and most interesting ekranoplans. Today, Russia boasts the world's only amphibious jet aircraft - the Beriev Be-200.

[...]

Notably, Russian Aviation Insider reported in 2018 that the US company Seaplane Global Air Services had placed an order for 4 Be-200s with the option of 6 more. It is unclear what happened with the order since then.

Varför försökte USA i så fall köpa detta flygplan?

Det är, jämte den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturens AVIC AG600, världens största skopande brandsläckningsflygplan, och skopar upp 12 ton vatten när det lågsniffar över en vattenyta


Som jämförelse kan nämnas att DeHavilland Canadas modernaste DHC-515 Firefighter skopar upp drygt 6 ton vatten.

Be-200 har som synes gjort en del gästspel i väst, men aldrig sålts utanför Ryssland. Bidragande orsak har nog varit bristande tilltro till underhållsmöjligheterna (inte minst av motorerna). Putin började ju som bekant dumma sig redan 2014. En Be-200 totalförstördes f.ö. vid en krasch i Turkiet 2021.

Japanska ShinMaywa US-2 påstås kunna skopa upp hela 15 ton vatten konfigurerat som brandsläckningsplan, men det är osäkert om något sådant har byggts.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Däremot kan attackerna på rysk oljeindustri orsaka Ryssland ekonomisk skada. Men militärens behov går alltid först. En option, som naturligtvis är möjlig på längre sikt är att flytta raffinaderikapacitet bortanför räckvidden för ukrainska vapen, i stil med hur lillefar Stalin gjorde efter det tyska anfallet 1941. Skillnaden är att då hade Sovjetunionen ett betydande logistiskt stöd från de västallierade. Den fördelen har inte Putin.

Russia's Orsk refinery declares force majeure on fuel supply due to floods

Russia's Orsk oil refinery, which has halted output after widespread floods, declared force majeure on fuel supplies from April 8, according to a document issued by plant owner Forteinvest and seen by Reuters.

Russia's oil refineries were already struggling with Ukrainian drone attacks and technical outages, forcing the country to ban gasoline exports, with some exceptions, for half a year from March 1.

[...]

Russia's energy ministry played down the force majeure, saying it was not consequential for the market, RIA news agency reported, as most of the Orsk refinery units had already been shut for planned maintenance before the floods.

Putin har ett annat problem: Moder jord är inte på hans sida. Därmed fortsätter Rysslands tillverkning av oljeprodukter att minska:

Russian gasoline production the week of 1st-7th of April declined again to 754 400 tons and diesel production dropped further than before to 1 585 100 tons. In 2023 during the week of 3rd-9th of April gasoline production was 833 200 tons and diesel production was 1 769 000 tons.

Gasoline prices for Ai-92 rose slightly from 50,62 rubles to 50,67 rubles per liter. For Ai-95 also rose slightly from 55,30 rubles to 55,41 rubles and for Ai-98 prices rose from 68,70 rubles to 68,91 rubles.

[...]

If gasoline production stays at around 755 000 tons a week even support from Belarus will not be enough to prevent significant withdraws from storage even if that storage should by now be 1 800 000 tons of gasoline of all types.

Denna gång kan Lukasjenka inte rädda Putin! Samtidigt ökar inflationen:

Russian official inflation in annual terms sped up to 7,79% for the period 2nd of April to 8th of April. This is almost 0.2% higher than last week. Food prices grew by 0,22% for the week. Non food items price grew by 0,12% for the period.

Allt går enligt plan. Däremot klagar Biden-administrationen igen:

Asked why the Biden admin is discouraging Ukraine from striking Russian energy infrastructure, Secretary Austin acknowledges that admin has concerns about how it will affect global energy markets.

"Certainly, those attacks could have a knock on effect, in terms of the global energy situation," Austin says. "But quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served and going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight."

Ukraina har tyvärr andra prioriteringar!

Då tar vi det här istället. Detta inlägg saknar bäring på trådens ämne och hör hemma i den allmänna Ukraina-tråden.

[Enceladus]

Det tidigare inlägget har flyttats till en annan tråd.

Problemet är bara att det här är de enda offensiva operationer Ukraina kan genomföra just nu. Att angripa ryska uppmarschområden och (för)störa den ryska logistiken kräver kraftigare vapenverkan, och det vore tacknämligt om USA kunde tillhandahålla den istället för pekpinnar.

Brady Africk håller med: Let Ukraine strike military targets in Russia with Western weapons

When explosions rocked the Russian city of Belgorod late last year, the Kremlin baselessly blamed Ukraine’s use of Czech-supplied weapons. When a transport plane was shot down over Russian airspace, the Kremlin asserted that a US-supplied air defense system was used. Meanwhile, Russia has not hesitated to lob North Korean missiles and Iranian drones at Ukraine. Russian missiles have also violated the airspace of Poland – a Nato member– before striking Ukraine.

Är Iran och Nordkorea bättre allierade än väst?

Iran’s Better, Stealthier Drones Are Remaking Global Warfare

Some drone deals are more adventurous than others. Iran recently reestablished relations with Sudan after a seven-year rift, to help the army fight a Sudanese paramilitary group called the Rapid Support Forces. Experts say the insurgents are supported by Iran’s rival across the Persian Gulf, the UAE, though UAE officials have denied that. Sudan’s armed forces said in March 2022 that they had produced the Zagel-3, the apparently modified Ababil with two wheels.

[...]

He’s proud of Iran’s engineering accomplishments with drones and other technologies, while uneasy about their use. “Most of us don’t like to use weapons in any invasion, especially by Russia in Ukraine,” Rohollahnejad says. “Iranian people do not have a good memory of the Russian Empire, the Soviets, and also the new Russia. They do not adhere to any ethics with their neighbors.”

[...]

They’re being built at an industrial park in Alabuga, Tatarstan, about 1,000 km east of Moscow, where 3M Corp. and Ford Motor Co. had manufacturing ventures until the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The withdrawal of Western foreign investment left thousands of engineers free to turn their skills to weapons production. Much of the payment to Iran is expected to come in Russian arms, such as advanced Su-35 fighter jets.

Iranier verkar inte vara särskilt entusiastiska över samarbetet med Ryssland. Förresten, när ska Iran få dessa ryska stridsflygplan? Det har ju gått två år nu...

Visserligen får Ryssland vänta ännu längre på gasledningen Power of Siberia 2, om den över huvud taget blir av. Diktaturer gillar att visa vem som bestämmer!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Däremot klagar Biden-administrationen igen:

Asked why the Biden admin is discouraging Ukraine from striking Russian energy infrastructure, Secretary Austin acknowledges that admin has concerns about how it will affect global energy markets.

"Certainly, those attacks could have a knock on effect, in terms of the global energy situation," Austin says. "But quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served and going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight."

Ukraina har tyvärr andra prioriteringar!

Dessutom ligger det en del i vad Austin säger.

Problemet är bara att det här är de enda offensiva operationer Ukraina kan genomföra just nu. Att angripa ryska uppmarschområden och (för)störa den ryska logistiken kräver kraftigare vapenverkan, och det vore tacknämligt om USA kunde tillhandahålla den istället för pekpinnar.

Brady Africk håller med: Let Ukraine strike military targets in Russia with Western weapons

When explosions rocked the Russian city of Belgorod late last year, the Kremlin baselessly blamed Ukraine’s use of Czech-supplied weapons. When a transport plane was shot down over Russian airspace, the Kremlin asserted that a US-supplied air defense system was used. Meanwhile, Russia has not hesitated to lob North Korean missiles and Iranian drones at Ukraine. Russian missiles have also violated the airspace of Poland – a Nato member– before striking Ukraine.

Ja, mitt inlägg utgick egentligen från innehållet i vad Austin sade: "is better served and going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight". Dvs. taktiska angrepp på ryska militära faciliteter. Det behöver inte nödvändigtvis innebära angrepp på ryskt territorium. Problemet är som sagt att Ukraina inte har de vapensystem som krävs för det.

Taktiska vapensystem kan grovt sett anses ha en skottvidd på maximalt 300 km. Att försöka föra strategiskt krig med sådana vapen kan möjligen fungera, men kräver i så fall mycket stora vapeninsatser. De vapen som i så fall kan vara aktuella är kryssningsmissiler som Storm Shadow/SCALP EG, KEPD-350 Taurus och AGM-158 JASSM. Ingen av dessa är i vart fall aktuella i närtid; fransmän och britter anser sig inte ha mer att donera, Taurus är politiskt blockerad och JASSM finns inte integrerad i någon tillgänglig vapenbärare. Möjligen kan ballistiska ATACMS M57 också räknas dit. Vissa versioner av de uppräknade kryssningsmissilerna sägs kunna ha avsevärt större skottvidd, och kan då ev. användas i (halv)strategiska angrepp, även om den konventionella sprängstyrkan är förhållandevis liten för ändamålet. Ryssarna är medvetna om detta, därför är ett stort antal av deras missilvapen anpassade för kärnvapenladdningar.

Av inhemska system kan nämnas R-360 Neptune, men det är osäkert vilken kapacitet den missilen har i denna roll; i alla händelser är det ett vapensystem Ukraina lider brist på. Om det existerar några ballistiska HRIM-2-system överhuvud taget så är de extremt sällsynta.

Övriga vapensystem , som bomberna JDAM-ER, GBU-39 (även i konfigurationen GLSDB), GBU-53 och "franska bomben" AASM Hammer, är rent taktiska vapen för slagfältsbruk, liksom de olika GLMRS-missilerna. Även eldrörsartilleriet räknas förstås dit.

Africk skriver i gåtor:

he US recently sent Ukraine its first batch of new long-range precision bombs with the potential to strike deep within Russian-occupied territory. Despite the weapons’ extended range, however, Ukraine won’t be able to use them to hit military targets inside Russia itself. Why? The US won’t allow it out of fear that American weapons taking out targets within Russia could escalate the conflict.

Möjligen avses glidflygbomben GBU-39 i GLSDB-konfigurationen, dvs. buren av raketmotordelen av en gammal M26-raket till insatshöjd, dvs. när bomben frigörs från raketsteget och påbörjar sin glidflykt. Maximal skottvidd uppges till 150 km. Det är inte helt klarlagt varför GBU-39 skulle ha en väsentligt mycket större skottvidd i GLSDB-konfiguration, jämfört med när bomben fälls från ett flygplan. Vid provskjutning 2019 uppger SAAB och Boeing att de nådde en skottvidd på 130 m.

Ovanstående beskrivning förefaller därför en smula överdriven.

[Enceladus]

Hahaha, vädermagi. Nä, så går det bara till i Narnia-romanerna. Men i Orsk är de nog inte så glada:

​A Flood May Stop the Work of the Only russia’s IFV Manufacturer (Official Map)

The Kurganmashzavod enterprise, the only manufacturer of BMP-3, BMD-4 and other armored vehicles in the russian federation, is in the flood zone even under a moderate flood development scenario

In the border regions of the russian federation with Kazakhstan, a large-scale flood, which was caused by an emergency discharge from reservoirs, continues. And one of the russian cities, Kurgan, risks suffering the most due to the flooding of the Tobol River.

[...]

Defense Express previously analyzed the capacity of the Kurganmashzavod plant in producing BMP-3 vehicles and their plans to equip them with additional reactive armor. There even still didn't abandon the idea of "robotizing" the BMP-3 by making it completely uncrewed.

För ett år sedan tänkte Ryssland göra pansarskyttefordonet BMP-3 till en markdrönare. Nu blir det kanske inga stridsfordon alls, trots att behovet är enormt:

In the last 4 days, Andrew has recorded some form of filmed damage/loss to 6 Russian SAM systems, 32 artillery systems, 40 tanks, 51 IFVs, 14 APCs, 52 trucks, 10 UTVs, 43x cars (mostly bukhankas), 9 EW systems, 2 comms systems, 2 engineering vehicles, and 1 boat.

262 in total.

De ryska förlusterna är ohållbara i längden. Det blir allt svårare att förneka att det sovjetiska arvet tryter:

Two Assault URALs with addon cage armor

Situationen är så prekär att Ryssland har återigen börjat använda stridsvagnar med ukrainsk motor:

Looks like Russia has finally started to remove their T-80UD in larger numbers from the 22nd. Only 54 of 170 remain at this spot, visible in the satelite images of the article below.

[...]

The T-80UD has an engine that is made in Ukraine so they will have to convert them somehow. The T-80U in active service took heavy losses at the start of the war and have rarely been seen since then

[Enceladus]

Tyskland och Olaf Scholz blåser under detta genom att (förutom den inhemska försvarsindustrin, förstås) förlita sig på USA och Israel, och förgiftar också Europa-samarbetet genom sitt luftsförsvarsinitiativ ESSI, som baseras sig på dessa länders teknologi. Det kommer att straffa sig rejält med Trump åter i Vita huset!

Iraq Is Shopping Around For Air Defenses. South Korea Might Have Exactly What Baghdad Is Looking For

The most significant post-2003 air defense acquisition Iraq made was its 2014 acquisition of medium-range Pantsir-S1 systems from Russia. In the late 2010s and early 2020s, Iraqi officials repeatedly indicated that Baghdad was interested in potentially acquiring advanced S-300 or S-400 long-range missile systems from Moscow.

Acquiring Russian systems today would carry many more risks and headaches than just a few years ago. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the supply of Russian weaponry and parts has become much less reliable. Furthermore, Baghdad would risk incurring American sanctions under the CAATSA law if it makes such a sizable order from Moscow, as Turkey did for its order of S-400s.

[...]

Baghdad may buy French Mistral or Crotale short-range missiles to supplement its existing Pantsir-S1s, Avengers, and its overall defenses against drones. It could also choose the longer-range SAMP/T, which is more capable against ballistic and cruise missiles.

South Korea would undoubtedly be willing to sell its new medium-range Cheongung II KM-SAM to Iraq. After all, it has expressed its hope to sell its upcoming KF-21 Boramae fighter to Iraq, which previously bought 24 T-50 Golden Eagle supersonic jet trainers. Seoul even built a specific variant of the aircraft for Iraq, the T-50IQ.

Scholz har kanske lyckats sabotera Mambas försäljning i Europa, men det finns gott om länder som inte deltar i hans ESSI!

Ryssland och Ukraina i global kapplöpning om granater

Pevkur säger till tidningen Postimees att granaterna skulle kunna levereras inom ett par månader. Han vill inte säga vilka länder det är som är beredda att sälja.

[...]

Lilla Estland har inte råd med de mellan två och tre miljarder euro som granaterna beräknas kosta. Därför hänger projektet – precis som det tjeckiska initiativet – på att andra, rikare länder ställer upp och finansierar köpen.

[...]

– De söker aktivt och globalt för leverantörer som kan gå via Belarus. Det är lite av en kapplöpning mot tiden om vem som kan komma åt ammunitionen först.

[...]

Eller ett land som Bosnien, som har stora lager av ammunition från 90-talets krig. Det är lager som nu förstörs med hjälp av bistånd från bland annat EU. Att skeppa iväg dem till ett nytt krig skulle vara mycket känsligt.

Betalar EU verkligen för att Bosnien ska förstöra ammunition som Ukraina desperat behöver!?

Bosnia and Herzegovina to sell surplus weapons

The government of Bosnia and Herzegovina wants to solve the problem of surplus weapons and ammunition by selling them.

[...]

The country’s Ministry of Defense explained that storing these weapons in depots for the past 14 years has been expensive.

[...]

At the same time, the European Union, together with EUFOR ALTHEA, has been funding the reduction of surplus ammunition for many years to maintain a safe and secure environment in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The country has an enterprise in the city of Doboj that is destroying weapons and ammunition with EU support.

Detta påminner om när EU klassade fossilgas som grön energi för Rysslands skull några månader efter Rysslands invasion. Europeisk byråkrati är inte snabb!

Former Ukrainian Security Service officer reportedly hospitalized after car explodes in Moscow

A Toyota Land Cruiser exploded in northern Moscow on Friday afternoon, Russian state media reported, citing emergency responders. The blast was reportedly caused by an unidentified device under the vehicle.

According to multiple Russian Telegram channels, the vehicle belongs to Vasily Prozorov, a former Ukrainian National Security Service (SBU) official who has been living in Moscow for several years.

The channel Shot reported that the explosion occurred immediately after the car’s driver started the engine. According to the channel Mash, the driver was hospitalized with leg injuries. Multiple other cars were reportedly also damaged by the blast.

Sannolikt har en sprängladdning placerats under karossen och tändmekanismen kopplats till bilens tändning för att få bomben att brisera när bilen startades.

​Three New Variations of the ShaBlya Combat Module Deployed to High-Intensity Zones

The ShaBlya system represents a unique achievement crafted by a team of Ukrainian engineers affiliated with the Brave1 cluster. It operates remotely, effectively neutralizing enemy threats and thus safeguarding the lives of Ukrainian defenders. Equipped with a machine gun turret, the military utilizes this module to establish defensive positions, eliminating enemy forces and lightly armored targets.

The military has actively integrated ShaBlya module into its operations. The robotic turret is already in use with units such as the Da Vinci Wolve Battalion, the 3rd and 5th Separate Assault Brigades, the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, and the 123rd and 125th Independent Brigades of the Territorial Defense Forces, alongside the 81st Separate Airmobile Brigade. The russians have dubbed the ShaBlya module as the “scythe of death”.

Däremot verkar ryska trupper frukta Ukrainas senaste markdrönare!

[Enceladus]

UK considers possibility of sending Ukraine laser weapons prototype - Defense Ministry

The UK is considering sending Ukraine a prototype laser weapon. It is a means to shoot down drones and missiles, according to UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps.

[...]

DragonFire is a laser beam that can shoot down drones and missiles. The weapon is invisible and silent because the wavelength of the light is about one micron, which the human eye cannot detect.

The UK Ministry of Defense notes that the system is powerful enough to shoot down projectiles moving faster than, for example, ballistic missiles. The main feature of laser weapons is their low cost. It is stated that a shot costs 10 pounds.

Israel påstås testa laservapnet Iron Beam i sitt krig mot Hamas. Nu vill UK göra detsamma i Ukrainas krig mot Ryssland.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ukraina förefaller ha utsatts för en ny mättnadsattack med blandade attackvektorer; kryssningsmissiler, ballistiska missiler, UAV-er: Large-scale Russian attack on 11 April: Ukraine's air defence destroys 57 out of 82 Russian drones and missiles ämnad att ytterligare förstöra det ukrainska energisystemet. Enligt uppgift ska även en av Rysslands modernaste kryssningsmissiler, Kh-69 ha använts, den beskrev jag tidigare här: viewtopic.php?p=418275#p418275

Av rapporteringen framgår att Ukraina inte lyckades bekämpa de ingående ballistiska missilerna, vilket tyvärr är helt förväntat eftersom ammunitionen till landets fåtaliga Patriot-system håller på natt ta slut. UAV-er och även kryssningsmissiler kan bekämpas med mindre kvalificerade LV-system, men mot ballistiska missiler hjälper endast Patriot eller SAMP/T.

Utrikesminister Dmytro Kuleba är i alla fall och besöker motvilliga partnerländer, för att försöka skaffa fram mer luftförsvar

ISW berör också detta i sin dagsrapport för 11/4: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... il-11-2024

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that Ukraine needs more Patriot air defense batteries to protect both Ukraine’s population centers and frontline areas. The Washington Post reported on April 10 that Kuleba is currently focusing on obtaining seven Patriot batteries from other countries as quickly as possible to defend Ukraine’s largest cities.[10]

Kuleba reportedly stated that Ukraine would place at least one of these batteries closer to the frontline. Kuleba recently emphasized that Ukraine especially needs Patriot systems to defend against Russian ballistic missiles, such as Kinzhal missiles, as Ukraine’s Soviet-era air defense systems are unable to intercept these missiles.[11] Russian strikes have forced Ukraine to make difficult decisions between providing air defense coverage to large population centers in the rear and active areas on the frontline, and Russia appears to be exploiting Ukraine’s degraded air defense umbrella in an attempt to collapse Ukraine’s energy grid and constrain Ukraine’s defense industrial capacity while Russian ground forces take advantage of their ability to use air strikes on Ukrainian frontline positions to make slow but steady gains.[

ISW continues to assess that sparse and inconsistent air defense coverage along the front has likely facilitated Russia’s intensification of guided and unguided glide bomb strikes, which Russian forces used to tactical effect in their seizure of Avdiivka in mid-February 2024 and which Russian forces appear to be using again during their current offensive operations near Chasiv Yar.

Ett luftförsvarssystem kan inte vinna ett krig, men väl förlora det.