Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

President Zelenskyi takar klarspråk: Ukraine to Lose War if US Congress Withholds Aid: Zelensky

Budanov hävdade precis motsatsen i ovanstående intervju. Båda säger förstås vad de måste säga. Experter tycks dock vara böjda att hålla med den tidigare:

Inside Donald Trump’s secret, long-shot plan to end the war in Ukraine

Trump’s proposal consists of pushing Ukraine to cede Crimea and the Donbas border region to Russia, according to people who discussed it with Trump or his advisers and spoke on the condition of anonymity because those conversations were confidential. That approach, which has not been previously reported, would dramatically reverse President Biden’s policy, which has emphasized curtailing Russian aggression and providing military aid to Ukraine.

[...]

Ukraine and European allies would probably resist Trump’s efforts to strike a deal with Moscow, Hill said. She added that the United States has limited leverage for a unilateral deal because meaningful sanctions relief would rely on European cooperation.

“No amount of leverage the United States has is likely to compel Ukrainian leadership to engage in policies that would constitute domestic political suicide,” said Michael Kofman, an analyst of the Russia-Ukraine war at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a nonpartisan research center. “And no amount of leverage the United States has can compel Ukraine to cede territory or engage in these types of concessions. This is a situation where if you’re willing to give a hand, the other side will very quickly want the rest of the arm.”

Skribenten minns väl att Trump inte kunde kuva Nordkorea i sina förhandlingar med Kim. Som synes klarar sig Ukraina utan USA, men Trump behöver Europa.

De säger säkert vad de måste. Men jämförelsen med Nordkorea haltar betänkligt. För det första är Trump en dålig affärsman, men en usel politiker. Han känner inte till någon annat förhandlingsmetod än "management by fear" (you're fired) och det fungerar av lättförståeliga skäl inte på den lille fetknoppen i Pyongyang, bl.a. eftersom han har kärnvapen. Trump hade helt enkelt inga bra kort på hand. Vad han skulle kunna tänkas ha för kort på hand mot Ukraina kan ju diskuteras. Fetknoppen i Budapest har ju sin uppfattning klar

Orban har som bekant träffat Trump, och har nu talat om vad som gäller: Donald Trump won’t give ‘a penny’ to Ukraine if elected, Orbán says

In an interview following the meeting — during which Trump and Orbán discussed “a wide range of issues” — the Hungarian prime minister praised the Republican front-runner as a “man of peace” who would bring an end to the all-out war in Ukraine, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has been waging since February 2022.

“If the Americans don’t give money and weapons, along with the Europeans, the war is over,” he said. “And if the Americans don’t give money, the Europeans alone can’t finance this war. And then the war is over.”
[..... ]

According to Orbán, Trump has a “detailed plan” to end the war in Ukraine, which marries with Hungary’s interests. Orbán, who has maintained contact with Putin amid Russia’s full-scale invasion, has repeatedly said he is opposed to sending more money and weapons to Kyiv.

Att Ukraina skulle klara sig utan USA - dvs. enbart genom stöd från europeiska Nato & EU - tål att diskuteras. USA har större arsenaler och en större försvarsindustri (det militärindustriella komplexet) än Europa tillsammans. USA skulle ex.vis utan större svårighet kunna förse Ukraina med avsevärt modernare F-16C, än det junk (40-åriga F-16AM) som nu tillhandahålls. Se bara på hur Biden öser vapen över Israel. Liksom Tyskland:
Germany faces genocide case over Israel weapon sales. Där fanns ingen tvekan.
Fungerade Putins kärnvapenutpressning: https://features.csis.org/deter-and-div ... -rhetoric/ ?

Man kan ju ex.vis också jämföra hur många F-16 Lockheed Martin kan producera per år, jämfört med SAAB:s produktionstakt för JAS 39 Gripen. Inte ens Frankrike, som har Europas mest kompletta försvarsindustri, når upp till den produktionstakten.

Jmfr. också med svenska flygvapnets anskaffning av ytterligare jaktmissiler till Gripen, som ersättning för de obsoleta AIM-120B AMRAAM (jaktrobot 99). Man skulle kunna ha beställt fler MBDA Meteor (som man redan har), men valde istället AIM-120C-8 AMRAAM (som möjligen kan betraktas som exportversionen av den senaste versionen AIM120D-3 AMRAAM) eftersom tillverkaren Raytheon kan leverera snabbare än MBDA. Att man kunde byta in sina AIM120B bidrog säkert också, de går sedan till Ukraina som LV-missiler.

Eller det faktum att så gott som hela europeiska Nato i förekommande fall har Patriot som high-end LV-system. Eller att amerikanska stridsflygplan sällan går att beväpna med europeiska vapen.

Europa har gjort sig bara alltför beroende av amerikanskt produktion. Då har man ju dessutom fått stjärna i Nato-boken, men det straffar sig nu.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Att USA och Europa behöver varandra kan vi väl vara överens om. Problemet är bara att alla amerikaner inte anser det. Som Jag skrev för snart två år sedan:

Utöver detta har, som framhålls ovan, USA alnledning att hålla reda på den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen och dess växande ambitioner. Det finns ju en betydande falang inom den republikanska MAGA-högern som anser att USA inte har några strategiska intressen i Europa, att USA överhuvud taget inte är en atlantisk makt utan en stillhavsmakt, och att det är i den senare regionen som tyngden ska läggas. Att engagera sig i Europa, både i WW1 och WW2, var ett misstag och gjorde att det kostade mer att besegra Japan än det borde ha gjort.

Sedan måste Europa försöka hålla ihop bättre, och de politiska ledningarna försöka hålla undan högerextremister och putinister. Hur det nu ska gå till?

Att socialfascisten Fico nu stärkt sin ställning i Slovakien är illavarslande.

[Enceladus]

Fetknoppen i Budapest har ju sin uppfattning klar

Ett tips är att läsa artikeln som skribenten själv har kommenterat:

His public silence on his negotiating tack has left room for others to fill in the blanks. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has antagonized European allies with his autocratic and pro-Russian tendencies, met with Trump last month and afterward claimed Trump told him he will force the war to end because “he will not give a penny” to help Ukraine. Orban’s statement was false, but the former president didn’t want to publicly contradict him after entertaining him all night at his Mar-a-Lago Club and admiring his toughness and anti-immigration positions, according to a person close to Trump, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a private conversation.

During the meeting, Orban spoke at length about Soviet history, Russia’s desire for Ukrainian territory and the military challenges facing Ukraine, the person said. Trump listened but was noncommittal, the person said. An Orban spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.

Som bekant förespråkar Trump räntefria lån till Ukraina.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Fetknoppen i Budapest har ju sin uppfattning klar

Ett tips är att läsa artikeln som skribenten själv har kommenterat:

His public silence on his negotiating tack has left room for others to fill in the blanks. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has antagonized European allies with his autocratic and pro-Russian tendencies, met with Trump last month and afterward claimed Trump told him he will force the war to end because “he will not give a penny” to help Ukraine. Orban’s statement was false, but the former president didn’t want to publicly contradict him after entertaining him all night at his Mar-a-Lago Club and admiring his toughness and anti-immigration positions, according to a person close to Trump, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a private conversation.

During the meeting, Orban spoke at length about Soviet history, Russia’s desire for Ukrainian territory and the military challenges facing Ukraine, the person said. Trump listened but was noncommittal, the person said. An Orban spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.

Som bekant förespråkar Trump räntefria lån till Ukraina.

Tack, men de tipsen klarar jag mig utan. Jag sade, som var och en kan läsa, att Orban "hade sin uppfattning klar" dvs. åtminstone var det vad han kommunicerade utåt. Om det finns någon sanning i det som Orban påstod vet jag inte, och jag har heller aldrig uttalat mig om det.

Som bekant vet man aldrig när Trump menar allvar (och inte Orban heller). Men Ukraina har sagt sig berett att syna det "erbjudandet" också, så vi får väl se vad det är värt, om det bara är en fint för att vinna tid.

F.ö. tar även CNN upp ovanstående tema: Ukraine ‘will lose the war’ if US fails to approve aid, says Zelensky

Franz-Stefan Gady, an associate fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN the war in Ukraine had entered a “transitional phase.”

“Russia is conducting probing attacks along the front line. It is trying to advance where it can. And it is preparing what seems to be a future offensive down the road,” he said.

While European countries have tried to replace US aid, Gady said there was “no substitute” for the support Washington can provide.

“This year, Ukraine really needs US support. There’s certain weapons systems, certain logistical support which the European countries simply cannot provide to Ukraine” such as air defense systems, he said.

Also on Sunday, Zelensky warned that “in the coming weeks Russia will be more and more insistent on dragging nuclear weapons into the debate, threatening, playing with this matter.” (se vidare CSIS analys https://features.csis.org/deter-and-div ... -rhetoric/ - min anm.)

In a separate post on X, he thanked UNITED24’s ambassadors for “continuing to draw US attention to the Ukrainian people’s fight for freedom and independence.”

Att Ukrainas läge är prekärt är ju ingenting som bara "måste sägas":
Western officials warn munition shortages could be catastrophic for Ukraine as US stalls on providing more aid

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det här visar vilka proryska underströmmar som finns inte bara inom den indiska utan också både inom den amerikanska och europeiska extremhögern. Nu när Ryssland inte längre är en kommunistisk utan istället fascistisk diktatur så en landet ju egentligen en "naturlig allierad" (för högerextremisterna).

Det finns en del klarsynta republikaner också: Republican lawmaker says Russian propaganda has 'infected a good chunk' of GOP base

[Enceladus]

Som bekant har jag aldrig uttalat mig om vilket post-sovjetiskt land som kan tänkas vara "nästa mål". Däremot tjänar Putin på att sådana här rykten kommer i omlopp.

Exclusive: Russia seeks gasoline from Kazakhstan in case of shortages, sources say

Russia has asked Kazakhstan to stand ready to supply it with 100,000 tons of gasoline in case of shortages exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks and outages, three industry sources told Reuters.

[...]

Neighbouring Belarus has already agreed to help Russia with gasoline supply.

[...]

Moscow imposed a gasoline export ban for six months from March 1 to prevent acute fuel shortages, although it does not apply to the Moscow-led Eurasian economic union, including Kazakhstan, as well as some countries, such as Mongolia, with which it has inter-government deals on fuel supplies.

[...]

Last week, the Orsk oil refinery in the Urals halted production due to widespread floods, which also affected Kazakhstan.

Var Ryssland bara ute efter bensin?

Russia: One dead as bridge collapses on railway tracks

A road bridge has collapsed on railway tracks in western Russia, killing a woman and injuring another five people, local officials say.

All train traffic was halted after Monday's incident in the town of Vyazma, Smolensk region, they say.

About 8,000 households were without gas as pipelines were also damaged.

Vilken kombo: en vägbro, en gasledning samt en järnväg mellan Ryssland och Belarus. Användes denna för att transportera bensin från Belarus till Ryssland?

[Enceladus]

Vem annars ska köpa Trumps fossila bränslen? Tyskland importerar gärna för sina behov! Men som bekant föredrar både Kina och Indien det inhemska kolet:

Geopolitics lurks behind Europe’s gas storage success

For Europe, success simultaneously reflects strength and weakness. European companies’ sheer ability to pay secured new contracts as well as spot purchases from the US and Qatar. While Asian emerging market demand slumps on price increases, European companies will pay whatever is required. Here, a comparison with China is instructive. In the second half of 2021, a surge in Chinese imports dramatically drove up LNG prices for European countries. But when Europe wanted much more LNG in 2022, Chinese demand slumped. And while it recovered last year, China still procured less than in 2021.

By contrast, reducing gas consumption has delivered an industrial shock to Europe. Home to the EU’s most gas-intensive sectors, Germany saw a 24 per cent drop in industrial gas consumption between 2021 and 2023. Now, output for the entire EU manufacturing sector has fallen for the final two quarters of last year. Producing fewer goods with gas feedstock inside the EU also has geopolitical consequences: a significant volume of the nitrogen fertilisers that come into Europe arrive from Russia.

Europe’s present gas security at lower consumption relies on the American victory over Russia in the competition for the European gas market. This began with the shale boom when the EU was rich enough to be the principal site of the contest between the world’s two energy superpowers. Now Russia has been left with Hungary, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and exports to all but Hungary are threatened by the end, in December this year, of transit through Ukraine.

Således har Europas gasreserver slagit sitt eget rekord från förra året:

The 2023/24 northern hemisphere heating season has officially come to an end. Europe has managed to get through the winter months with very comfortable storage levels. In fact, with storage 58% full at the end of March, the region has exited the heating season with record high storage levels. Milder than usual weather through much of February and large parts of March has meant that the drawdown in storage has been somewhat less than expected.

[...]

Disruptions to remaining Russian pipeline flows is a very real risk. Gazprom’s transit deal expires at the end of this year and Ukraine has made it clear it has no plans to extend the deal. This puts around 50% of remaining Russian pipeline flows at risk. Although, Russia may try push larger volumes through TurkStream. Either way, we expect any potential losses from Russia to be manageable for Europe, given the ramping up of new LNG export capacity later this year and into 2025.

[...]

European gas demand is still struggling to make a strong recovery despite the broader weakness seen in European gas prices. EU gas demand in 2023 totalled a little over 330bcm, down 7% YoY and 20% lower than 2021 (pre-war) levels. More recently, demand over January-February was up 1% YoY (January was up 9% YoY, while milder weather in February saw demand 8% lower YoY), so we are seeing signs of demand finally starting to recover. In fact, since October, three out of five months have seen YoY growth in gas demand – although the region is still obviously well below its five-year average. We expect weaker prices and lower volatility to continue to drive a recovery in industrial demand through the year. We also expect the power sector to be less of a drag on gas demand this year.

Men Tyskland har mycket att lära av Kina när det gäller energipolitik:

BASF seeks 'permanent' cost cuts at European operations

The cutbacks at home contrast with a 10 billion euro chemical complex that BASF plans to build in Zhanjiang, southern China, to run entirely on renewable energy, as it banks on booming Asian markets and looks to reduce reliance on Europe.

Kinesiska förnybara energikällor är den nya ryska gasen...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Men Tyskland har mycket att lära av Kina när det gäller energipolitik:

BASF seeks 'permanent' cost cuts at European operations

The cutbacks at home contrast with a 10 billion euro chemical complex that BASF plans to build in Zhanjiang, southern China, to run entirely on renewable energy, as it banks on booming Asian markets and looks to reduce reliance on Europe.

Kinesiska förnybara energikällor är den nya ryska gasen...

Den som göder den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen göder också den ryska krigföringen: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ril-9-2024

Fast Scholz har ju blivit synlig i kommunistdiktaturens TikTok, har jag hört: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz joins TikTok
Kul kille, det där.

Russian state media highlighted Russia and China’s joint effort to combat perceived Western “dual containment” targeting Russia and China during Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on April 9. Kremlin newswire TASS reported that Wang suggested that China and Russia engage in “dual counteraction” in response to alleged Western attempts at “dual containment” targeting Russia and China.[1]

Lavrov claimed that the Russian–Chinese “comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction” have reached an “unprecedented level,” and that Russia and China have mutual international interests and will coordinate to solve internal and external problems.[2] Lavrov claimed that Russian–Chinese relations extend beyond a “military-political alliance of the Cold War” and that both countries are working to create a “multipolar world order” through multilateral formats that include BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).[3] Russia has consistently pushed the idea of a Russian-led “multipolar world order” that imagines Russia as the leader of a coalition of non-Western states in opposition to the US and West.[4]

Lavrov claimed that Russia and China will continue to cooperate on anti-terrorism measures and that Russia and China signed another plan for inter-Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) consultations in 2024.[5] The Russian MFA stated that China and Russia “exchanged views” on possible ways to resolve the war in Ukraine, that both sides called international meetings that discuss an end to the war without Russia “futile,” and that Russia “positively” assesses China’s suggestions for an end to the war, likely in reference to the 12-point peace plan that China released in February 2023.[6]

The Russian MFA notably did not mention bilateral military or technological cooperation, possibly due to recent reports that China is increasingly helping Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) and even providing Russia with geospatial intelligence that Russia likely uses to support military operations in Ukraine.[7] ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin continues to be concerned with China’s reticence to participate fully in the Kremlin's desired no-limits partnership, and that China continues to hold the upper hand in the Russian–Chinese relationship despite recent reports suggesting that China is increasingly willing to assist Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine.[8]

Även om inte allt går ryssarnas väg.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Förfallet i USA:s Representanthus fortsätter: US Congress reconvenes as Ukraine aid remains stalled

The US Congress reconvened this week with all eyes on a potential vote for approving a long-delayed $60 billion (€55.3 billion) military aid package for Ukraine.

The foreign aid package, which altogether totals $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, was passed by the Democrat-controlled Senate in February, but has been stalled in the lower house of Congress, where Republicans hold a thin majority.

However, prior to the recess in March, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson hinted that the House would quickly take up voting on the foreign aid package proposal. Johnson faces opposition from hardline Republicans opposed to any further funding of Ukraine.

Republicans have held up spending bills in Congress, demanding that stronger controls first be put in place to curb the arrival of migrants at the southern US border. Johnson is seeking to find a compromise to have Ukraine aid approved.

On Tuesday, Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene renewed threats to have Johnson removed as Speaker of the House if a Ukraine aid vote is tabled. "Today, I sent a letter to my colleagues explaining exactly why I filed a motion to vacate against Speaker Johnson," she said.

She warned Johnson not to seek support from Democrat lawmakers for the passage of bills."I will not tolerate this type of Republican 'leadership,'" she said.

Fascistkvinnan Taylor Greene verkar fortsätta med sina hot, frågan är om hon enbart är en Trump-lojalist eller har en egen agenda. Troligen räknar hon i alla fall med en hög post i en framtida Trump-regering. Men Donald brukar ju inte gilla högljudda och påstridiga kvinnor.

Amerikanska ABC News har flera reportage om detta, inkl. Taylor Greenes hotbrev: In scathing letter, GOP's Marjorie Taylor Greene slams Johnson with speakership under threat



Taylor Greene skulle säkert trivas med Meloni



Den sistnämnda har ju inga problem med andra amerikanska högerextremister

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Att USA och Europa behöver varandra kan vi väl vara överens om. Problemet är bara att alla amerikaner inte anser det. Som Jag skrev för snart två år sedan:

Utöver detta har, som framhålls ovan, USA alnledning att hålla reda på den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen och dess växande ambitioner. Det finns ju en betydande falang inom den republikanska MAGA-högern som anser att USA inte har några strategiska intressen i Europa, att USA överhuvud taget inte är en atlantisk makt utan en stillhavsmakt, och att det är i den senare regionen som tyngden ska läggas. Att engagera sig i Europa, både i WW1 och WW2, var ett misstag och gjorde att det kostade mer att besegra Japan än det borde ha gjort.

Sedan måste Europa försöka hålla ihop bättre, och de politiska ledningarna försöka hålla undan högerextremister och putinister. Hur det nu ska gå till?

Att socialfascisten Fico nu stärkt sin ställning i Slovakien är illavarslande.

En alldeles färsk studie från International Centre for Counter-Terrorism - ICCT om hur Ryssland använder Europas högerextremister och fascister som femtekolonnare. Ungefär som under den sovjetiska kommunistdiktaturen. Fast då var det förstås kommunistpartierna.

Russia and the Far-Right: Insights From Ten European Countries

I den post-sovjetiska staterna finns ju de ryska (eller rysk-vänliga) minoriteterna. Balterna agerade ju med kraft efter det att de slitit sig loss från det sovjetiska förtrycket, i synnerhet Lettland, dör letterna höll på att bli en minoritet i sitt eget land pga, den ryska invandringen.

I Moldavien fortsätter destabiliseringspolitiken, och här är tydligen redskapet turkfolket gagautserna, som finns bosatta på flera håll vid Svarta Havet, bl.a. Rumänien och Moldavien. Den rumänska författaren Zaharia Stancu ger en föga smickrade bild av detta folk i sin roman "Uruma - tatarens dotter " som utspelas på rumänska landsbygden under mellankrigstiden, då det förstås rådde oerhört fattiga förhållanden.

The Kremlin will likely be able to leverage a new agreement signed by the Kremlin-affiliated governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, and a state-owned Russian bank to further its efforts to destabilize Moldovan society, attack Moldova’s democratic government, and prevent Moldova’s accession to the European Union

Moldaviska Gagauzien är ett ganska litet område i Moldavien, men tydligen ett Putin-fäste. Hantlangerskan där heter Jevgenia Gutsul:


Det är hon till höger i bild, alltså.

Tillsammans med andra ryssvänliga krafter ska hon försöka störta den europavänliga regeringen i Moldavien (inget mer Euromaidan här, inte!) i de kommande president- och parlamentsvalen. Finansiär är (förutom Putin) är den moldavisk-israeliske oligarken Ilan Shor, som flydde från Moldavien till Israel, efter att ha ådömts ett långt fängelsestraff för ekonomisk brottslighet.

Moldavien kan inte överleva detta på egen hand.

[Enceladus]

Förfallet i USA:s Representanthus fortsätter:

Russia Says Investigating Senior U.S., NATO Officials for ‘Financing Terrorism’

While the Investigative Committee did not specify which terrorist attacks it suspects were funded by Western organizations, the announcement comes as top Russian officials double down on claims that Ukraine and the West were involved in the deadly Crocus City Hall attack last month.

The top law enforcement body named the Ukrainian energy company Burisma Holdings as one of the implicated organizations. U.S. President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden served as a member of Burisma’s board of directors between 2014 and 2019.

His role has fueled Republican accusations against the Biden family over claimed corruption and culminated in an ongoing impeachment probe in U.S. Congress. Hunter Biden has denied any wrongdoing, and a former FBI informant was arrested in February on suspicion of fabricating accusations against the president’s family.

Hur troligt är det att USA:s fascister köper denna ryska charad? Den är som skräddarsydd för den amerikanska högern.

Den som göder den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen göder också den ryska krigföringen:

Global glut turns solar panels into garden fencing option

Solar panels have become so cheap that they are being used to build garden fences in the Netherlands and Germany, as a boom in Chinese production saturates the global market.

[...]

“This is the result of solar panels getting so cheap that we’re just putting them everywhere,” said Jenny Chase, lead solar analyst at BloombergNEF. “Since installation cost — labour, scaffolding — is the vast majority of the cost of installing a rooftop PV [photovoltaic] system, it can make sense.”

“Why put up a fence when you can just put up a load of solar panels, even if they’re not aligned exactly to the sun?” says Martin Brough, head of climate research at BNP Paribas Exane. “Where the panels themselves are just incredibly cheap, the constraints become the installation costs and the sites . . . you get a bit of a DIY mentality.”

Nja, Europa verkar uppskatta den nya ryska gasen. Billiga solpaneler från Kina erövrar hela världen - ingenstans i världen är gas den billigaste energikällan! Höga elavgifter och låga gasavgifter innebär emellertid att tyskar alltjämt föredrar uppvärmning med gas. Ingen ledare har velat göra upp med Schröders arv.

En alldeles färsk studie från International Centre for Counter-Terrorism - ICCT om hur Ryssland använder Europas högerextremister och fascister som femtekolonnare. Ungefär som under den sovjetiska kommunistdiktaturen. Fast då var det förstås kommunistpartierna.

Jag undrar vad dessa högerextremister skulle säga om Putins invandringspolitik. Det är knappast en slump att en stor del av den ryska oppositionen utgörs av etnonationalister. Hela Europa lider av arbetskraftsbrist - se exemplet ovan med solpaneler. Behöver Europa också en hårdför invandringsvurmare som Putin?

Även om inte allt går ryssarnas väg.

Russia aborts Angara-A5 space rocket launch for second time

Russia on Wednesday aborted the test launch of its Angara-A5 space rocket due to a malfunction of the engine launch control system, the second time in two days that the rocket's blast-off was cancelled at the very last minute.

The launch of the Angara was supposed to showcase Russia's post-Soviet space ambitions and the growing clout of the Vostochny Cosmodrome, located in the forests of the Amur region in Russia's Far East.

[...]

The setback follows the failure of a Russian moon mission last August, its first in 47 years, when the spacecraft crashed into the moon.

Nä, det är inte mycket som går ryssarnas väg. Vad skulle dagens Ryssland vara utan olja? Sovjetunionen var inte alls lika enkelspårig: gas, vapen och rymden.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Jag undrar vad dessa högerextremister skulle säga om Putins invandringspolitik. Det är knappast en slump att en stor del av den ryska oppositionen utgörs av etnonationalister. Hela Europa lider av arbetskraftsbrist - se exemplet ovan med solpaneler. Behöver Europa också en hårdför invandringsvurmare som Putin?

Vi kan fortsätta att citera ISW om bl.a. den inhemska(!) ryska högerextremismen:

Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to employ virulently anti-migrant rhetoric and call for xenophobic domestic policies, but in doing so are exposing the inherent hypocrisy in Russia’s treatment of its own indigenous ethnic minority communities. Several ultranationalist milbloggers seized on an April 5 post by the Leningrad Oblast House of Friendship cultural center for awarding the local “Khorezm” Uzbek cultural organization with a grant for its work in “harmonization of interethnic relations and support for small indigenous peoples of Leningrad Oblast.”[16]

Several milbloggers retorted that Uzbeks are not indigenous to Leningrad Oblast and questioned why an Uzbek cultural organization received an award from the Leningrad Oblast budget.[17] One milblogger emphasized that Leningrad Oblast has formally defined Vepsians, Vods, and Izhorians as the ethnic groups indigenous to Leningrad Oblast.[18] Another Russian milblogger published a post on April 9, which was later amplified by a Telegram channel affiliated with imprisoned Russian former officer and ultranationalist commentator Igor Girkin, calling the domestic situation in Russia a “migration catastrophe,” accusing migrants of attacking the Russian domestic rear and of “unleashing ethnic, economic, and religious terror against indigenous citizens of the Russian Federation of all ethnicities.”[19] The milbloggers who criticized the Leningrad Oblast authorities and the post amplified by the Girkin-affiliated channel all narrowly define Muslim migrants from Central Asian countries as an explicit threat to “indigenous Russians.”[20]

This same ultranationalist community, however, has been inconsistent and hypocritical in selectively defining who it believes to be an “indigenous Russian,” and the actual indigenous populations of Russia’s ethnic minority republics have faced discrimination and poor treatment at the hands of ethnic Russians, particularly against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. Russian milbloggers have criticized Tuvans, an ethnic minority group indigenous to Siberia, for using indigenous Tuvan orthography on road signs, while accusing Tuvan activist groups of inciting “ethnic discord” in Russia.[21]

The Kremlin has also heavily relied on the more geographically remote and economically disenfranchised Russian federal subjects, many of which are indigenous ethnic minority republics, to disproportionately bear the brunt of mobilization for the war in Ukraine to protect ethnic Russians in major population centers such as Moscow and St. Petersburg from high casualties and the realities of the war.[22] Indigenous Buryat, Kalmyk, Tuvan, and Sakha activist organizations have spoken out against the Kremlin’s heavy reliance on ethnic minority indigenous populations for force generation purposes.[23] Russian authorities have also been trying to undermine cultural identity in the Republic of Tatarstan through amendments to state national policy that remove provisions on “strengthening Tatarstan’s identity.”[24]

I texten talas om "Tuvan", på svenska tuviner. Försvarsministern Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu (killen med medaljerna) är ex.vis tuvin.



Som sagt, man sparkar inte en kille med så många medaljer.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det här visar vilka proryska underströmmar som finns inte bara inom den indiska utan också både inom den amerikanska och europeiska extremhögern. Nu när Ryssland inte längre är en kommunistisk utan istället fascistisk diktatur så en landet ju egentligen en "naturlig allierad" (för högerextremisterna).

Det finns en del klarsynta republikaner också: Republican lawmaker says Russian propaganda has 'infected a good chunk' of GOP base

Ytterligare några insiktsfulla amerikanska Representanthuspolitiker (rep. + dem.), som dessutom besökt Ukraina för att bilda sig en egen uppfattning.
‘Now or never’: Congressmen say US must send Ukraine aid (BBC)

Till skillnad från fascisterna Marjorie Taylor Greene och Mike Johnson. Johnson är inte på något sätt någon duvunge, utan var en av de kraftfullaste förnekarna av Joe Bidens valseger: Mike Johnson Is Now the Most Powerful Election Denier in Washington

Tills skillnad från förre vicepresidenten Mike Pence kan han inte ens uppföra sig med den värdighet som hans ämbete kräver, utan satt och skakade på huvudet när Joe Biden höll sitt "State of the Union"-tal. Föreställ er att den korrekte Andreas Norlén skulle ha gjort någonting sådant när Magdalena Andersson lade fram sin regeringsförklaring.

En intervju med brittiske försvarsministern och förre premiärministern David Cameron: War will be lost if allies don't step up (BBC)

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Russia's Orsk refinery declares force majeure on fuel supply due to floods

Russia's Orsk oil refinery, which has halted output after widespread floods, declared force majeure on fuel supplies from April 8, according to a document issued by plant owner Forteinvest and seen by Reuters.

Russia's oil refineries were already struggling with Ukrainian drone attacks and technical outages, forcing the country to ban gasoline exports, with some exceptions, for half a year from March 1.

[...]

Russia's energy ministry played down the force majeure, saying it was not consequential for the market, RIA news agency reported, as most of the Orsk refinery units had already been shut for planned maintenance before the floods.

Putin har ett annat problem: Moder jord är inte på hans sida.

Hahaha, vädermagi. Nä, så går det bara till i Narnia-romanerna. Men i Orsk är de nog inte så glada:
Putinkritik efter ”värsta översvämningar på 70 år” – Orenburg evakueras

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Allt går enligt plan. Däremot klagar Biden-administrationen igen:

Asked why the Biden admin is discouraging Ukraine from striking Russian energy infrastructure, Secretary Austin acknowledges that admin has concerns about how it will affect global energy markets.

"Certainly, those attacks could have a knock on effect, in terms of the global energy situation," Austin says. "But quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served and going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight."

Ukraina har tyvärr andra prioriteringar!

Det finns naturligtvis ingen "plan". Dessutom ligger det en del i vad Austin säger.

Problemet är bara att det här är de enda offensiva operationer Ukraina kan genomföra just nu. Att angripa ryska uppmarschområden och (för)störa den ryska logistiken kräver kraftigare vapenverkan, och det vore tacknämligt om USA kunde tillhandahålla den istället för pekpinnar.

[Enceladus]

Då tar vi det här istället. Detta inlägg saknar bäring på trådens ämne och hör hemma i den allmänna Ukraina-tråden.

Tyvärr hann skribenten göra ett efterföljande inlägg innan jag kunde flytta det. Men det stämmer att nedanstående inlägg råkade hamna i fel tråd:

Däremot kan attackerna på rysk oljeindustri orsaka Ryssland ekonomisk skada. Men militärens behov går alltid först. En option, som naturligtvis är möjlig på längre sikt är att flytta raffinaderikapacitet bortanför räckvidden för ukrainska vapen, i stil med hur lillefar Stalin gjorde efter det tyska anfallet 1941. Skillnaden är att då hade Sovjetunionen ett betydande logistiskt stöd från de västallierade. Den fördelen har inte Putin.

Russia's Orsk refinery declares force majeure on fuel supply due to floods

Russia's Orsk oil refinery, which has halted output after widespread floods, declared force majeure on fuel supplies from April 8, according to a document issued by plant owner Forteinvest and seen by Reuters.

Russia's oil refineries were already struggling with Ukrainian drone attacks and technical outages, forcing the country to ban gasoline exports, with some exceptions, for half a year from March 1.

[...]

Russia's energy ministry played down the force majeure, saying it was not consequential for the market, RIA news agency reported, as most of the Orsk refinery units had already been shut for planned maintenance before the floods.

Putin har ett annat problem: Moder jord är inte på hans sida. Därmed fortsätter Rysslands tillverkning av oljeprodukter att minska:

Russian gasoline production the week of 1st-7th of April declined again to 754 400 tons and diesel production dropped further than before to 1 585 100 tons. In 2023 during the week of 3rd-9th of April gasoline production was 833 200 tons and diesel production was 1 769 000 tons.

Gasoline prices for Ai-92 rose slightly from 50,62 rubles to 50,67 rubles per liter. For Ai-95 also rose slightly from 55,30 rubles to 55,41 rubles and for Ai-98 prices rose from 68,70 rubles to 68,91 rubles.

[...]

If gasoline production stays at around 755 000 tons a week even support from Belarus will not be enough to prevent significant withdraws from storage even if that storage should by now be 1 800 000 tons of gasoline of all types.

Denna gång kan Lukasjenka inte rädda Putin! Samtidigt ökar inflationen:

Russian official inflation in annual terms sped up to 7,79% for the period 2nd of April to 8th of April. This is almost 0.2% higher than last week. Food prices grew by 0,22% for the week. Non food items price grew by 0,12% for the period.

Allt går enligt plan. Däremot klagar Biden-administrationen igen:

Asked why the Biden admin is discouraging Ukraine from striking Russian energy infrastructure, Secretary Austin acknowledges that admin has concerns about how it will affect global energy markets.

"Certainly, those attacks could have a knock on effect, in terms of the global energy situation," Austin says. "But quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served and going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight."

Ukraina har tyvärr andra prioriteringar!

Den upplevda inflationen - vilken ryska myndigheter försöker dölja - är förstås ännu högre:

Hard to say the official one is at 7,6, people feel it like 12-14. Rosstat uses real data but massages it...
So I usually give this stat when it comes to people grasping the impact on family budgets. The price of Fast Moving Consumer Goods has doubled in 3 years.

[...]

Even minimum wage which rose the most went from 12 792 roubles to 19 242 roubles in that time so no, not really.

De rejäla reallönesänkningarna minskar Rysslands attraktionskraft ytterligare bland postsovjetiska stater.

[Enceladus]

Förfallet i USA:s Representanthus fortsätter:

House Republicans are in chaos again as conservatives derail a key surveillance bill

A band of hard-right agitators, backed by former President Donald Trump, revolted against GOP leaders on Wednesday, blocking renewal of a powerful surveillance program that is set to expire next week and throwing the GOP-led House into chaos once again.

Nineteen conservatives broke with Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and his leadership team and voted down a "rule"; the vote was 193-228. It's yet another example of a minority of Republicans using the otherwise procedural vote to prevent the House from debating their own party's legislation.

It marked the seventh time this Congress — and the fourth under Johnson — that Republicans have taken down their own rule, according to a review by NBC News.

Det är helt uppenbart att Mike Johnson har tappat kontrollen över sitt parti. Detta har inte hänt sedan 2002. Därmed är denna mandatperiod redan historisk.

[Enceladus]

Till skillnad från fascisterna Marjorie Taylor Greene och Mike Johnson. Johnson är inte på något sätt någon duvunge, utan var en av de kraftfullaste förnekarna av Joe Bidens valseger

Trump looms over fight to oust Speaker Johnson

Several House Republicans told CNN they would feel more comfortable with any Ukraine package if they knew it had Trump’s backing and encouraged Johnson to seek Trump’s buy-in.

“I would hope the speaker is consulting with Donald Trump on just about everything we do,” said Texas Rep. Troy Nehls, a Trump ally. “If he’s not, he should be.”

[...]

Some Trump allies who support aiding Ukraine expressed cautious optimism after the former president’s meeting with British Foreign Secretary David Cameron at Mar-a-Lago earlier this week. Cameron described the meeting as “good” and said he would continue to push for Ukraine aid during meetings in Washington with US lawmakers from both parties.

Hur blir det med Ukraina? Det är den stora frågan. Fascisten Marjorie Taylor Greene fortsätter att skramla, men övriga representanter sägs vara less på henne.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Several House Republicans told CNN they would feel more comfortable with any Ukraine package if they knew it had Trump’s backing and encouraged Johnson to seek Trump’s buy-in.

“I would hope the speaker is consulting with Donald Trump on just about everything we do,” said Texas Rep. Troy Nehls, a Trump ally. “If he’s not, he should be.”

[...]

Some Trump allies who support aiding Ukraine expressed cautious optimism after the former president’s meeting with British Foreign Secretary David Cameron at Mar-a-Lago earlier this week. Cameron described the meeting as “good” and said he would continue to push for Ukraine aid during meetings in Washington with US lawmakers from both parties.

Hur blir det med Ukraina? Det är den stora frågan. Fascisten Marjorie Taylor Greene fortsätter att skramla, men övriga representanter sägs vara less på henne.

Ja, det är svårt att hitta ord. Några bilder istället:

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Nu ska jag göra något så extremt ovanligt som att citera Lars "Cornucopia" Wilderäng

USA:s försvarsdepartement har via kreativ bokföring beslutat om akut stöd till Ukrainas HAWK-luftvärnssystem till ett värde om 138 MUSD skriver Associated Press. Detta tas inom budget och berörs därför inte av den ryska infiltrationen av den amerikanska kongressen, där den ryssfinansierade MAGA-talmannen Johnson vägrar ta föreslaget 60 GUSD stöd till Ukraina till omröstning, trots ett brett majorietsstöd i parlamentet. Till saken hör att Putin även nått fram till presidentkandidaten Trump, som vill att Ukraina ska kapitulera, så Johnson ser antagligen till att blockera allt stöd till Ukraina i kongressen fram tills presidentvalet.

Enda hoppet är att det går att samla ihop en kvalificerad majoritet i kongressen för att gå förbi talmannen, men det går trögt än så länge. Som det är nu kan alltså en enskild person i form av talman blockera den demokratiska processen i USA:s parlament, på ett sätt som inte ens presidenten kan via sitt veto. Det var antagligen inte tänkt när man skrev den amerikanska författningen att talmannen skulle vara finansierad av främmande makt, men Johnsons valkampanj finansierades av ryska affärsmäns amerikanska bolag. Sedan missades detta när han valdes till talman, där kongressen kände sig nöjda med att lyckats komma överens om en ny dito.

Johnson representerar alltså vare sig kongressens eller den amerikanska regeringens vilja, men hans agerande kommer likväl att för lång tid framöver smitta av sig på resten av världens syn på USA och det Pax Americana, som skapat så mycket välstånd i världen de senaste decennierna.

Detta citat lämnas helt utan kommentarer och tilltaget kommer inte att upprepas.

PS. Som en ren sakupplysning kan nämnas att Wilderäng kallar Representathuset för "parlament". Detta är fel. USA har inte parlamentarism som statsskick och Kongressen är inget parlament i den meningen.