Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5908
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av dr Cassandra Nojdh »

Enceladus skrev: fredag 16 december 2022 16:08
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 16 december 2022 14:20 ESA har inget behov av att bygga egna bemannade rymdfarkoster, det blir för dyrt.
The EU’s galactically bad space programme
The Spectator skrev:Europe is lost in space. Ever since the Soviets orbited Yuri Gagarin and America landed men on the moon, Europe has proclaimed the ambition to compete on the final frontier.

More than half a century later, Europe is unable to compete even with India, as in October it became incapable of launching its own payloads into space.

[...]

With a budget of €7.2 billion and a staff of 2,200, the ESA, which was founded 50 years ago, has admitted that it cannot launch its forthcoming space telescope and an asteroid mission. It’s had to beg Elon Musk for his reusable Falcon rockets. It has also lost access to Russian Soyuz vehicles (yes, they’re in bed with the Russians) and because of long delays in the introduction of the replacement Ariane 6 launch vehicle, it is wildly over budget and years late. The humiliation is galactic.
Vad är ursäkten för att Europa behöver Musks hjälp för att skjuta upp rymdteleskopet Euclid och Hera-sonden? :roll:
Enceladus-kollektivet tvingar mig till en replik i denna tråd genom att utlysa meningslös polemik. En ganska tråkig attityd, får jag nog säga.

Dessutom har det som citeras ovan ingenting med bemannade rymdfärder att göra (däremot har Arianespace idéer om en återanvändbar modul som de kallar SUSIE - Smart Upper Stage for Innovative Exploration, och som skulle kunna bli en bemannad farkost i framtiden - det får vi återkomma till en annan gång, kanske).

Att åberopa den brittiska, europafientliga och högerreaktionära tidsktiften The Spectator, en av de mest inpiskade brexitörerna med de svinaktiga formuleringar som man annars bara återfinner hos UKIP, ger inget seriöst intryck (general de Gaulle hade rätt, Storbritannien är ett land med ryggen mot Europa). Däremot är Storbritannien (fortfarande) medlem i ESA, märkligt nog. Inte ens Rishi Sunak är väl korkad nog att föreslå ett utträde ur ESA (som alltså inte är ett EU-organ), oavsett vad knäppgökarna i The Spectator skriver.

Artikelförfattaren här, knäppgöken Jonathan Miller kan dessutom inte ens skilja på EU och ESA. Miller verkar bo i närheten av den franska staden Montpellier (en vacker stad, som jag besökte en gång i min ungdom) på franska sydkusten, i ett land som han uppenbarligen avskyr, med tanke på att han har författat boken "France, a Nation on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown". Men det går förstås an att bo vid Medelhavskusten istället för i det vedervärdiga brittiska klimatet, det skulle jag också vilja göra. Millers uppgift verkar vara att leverera så där lagom sanningsenlig smörja till den brittiska högerpubliken, ungefär som Boris Johnson en gång gjorde.

Förklaringen är som sagt enkel. De kvarvarande Ariane 5-raketerna är inbokade för andra uppdrag och Ariane 6 är inte färdigställd ännu. Förseningar är inte så ovanliga i raketbranschen, om man inte som Musk tror att man har obegränsat med pengar att ösa in - fast det blir väl svårare nu när han har köpt Twitter till överpris. Starship-projektet går visst lite trögt, har jag hört (det har smällt en del, men det är ju så SpaceX jobbar). Men på något sätt har Musk blivit högerns kelgris. ESA var f.ö. de enda som kunde erbjuda en raket med tillräckligt stor diameter i lastutrymmet när James Webb-teleskopet skulle skickas iväg.

Eftersom ryssarna nu inte är någon acceptabel samarbetspartner (av lättförståeliga skäl) får man söka sig till andra, men raketmarknaden är inte så stor som bekant. I stort sett finns då bara två möjliga amerikanska samarbetsparters; ULA (United Launch Alliance) och SpaceX, och det var uppenbarligen bara den sistnämnda som hade ledig kapacitet. USA sitter dessutom i samma klämma. Man är helt beroende av Musk just nu, tyvärr:
Space launch supply chokepoint puts U.S. in vulnerable spot, expert warns
Senast redigerad av dr Cassandra Nojdh den fredag 16 december 2022 22:27, redigerad totalt 1 gånger.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9737
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

A Biden admin official recently told members of Congress that Ukraine has the military capability to take back Crimea
NBC News skrev:A Biden administration official recently told members of Congress that Ukraine has the military capability to retake Crimea, but some officials are concerned any large-scale offensive that threatens Russia’s hold on the peninsula could push Vladimir Putin to use nuclear weapons, say two U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

[...]

Ukraine is struggling and has lost some ground around Bakhmut in the east. The two sides are in a virtual standstill there, and U.S. officials assess that based on where the Ukrainian troops and battlefield lines are now, the Ukrainian military will move northeast in the coming months, rather than south to Crimea.

[...]

The White House was surprised by the strikes, two U.S. officials and a U.S. defense official said, creating a moment of frustration with the government in Kyiv, as occurred after the Kerch Bridge attack and the killing of the daughter of a close Putin ally. But other officials said that the frustration has been going on since the invasion and that in some cases it helps the U.S. to have plausible deniability about an incident.
USA och Ukraina är inte helt inne på samma linje, vilket i och för sig möjliggör trovärdigt förnekande. Enligt en rysk undersökning är allt fler ryssar besvikna på sin armé och beredda att ge upp allt som Ryssland har erövrat sedan 2014 för att få fred. Men Ukraina kräver mer än sitt territorium för att ta bort sanktionerna.

Rishi Sunak orders audit of Ukraine war progress, source says
BBC skrev:Some in Whitehall see this approach as a sign of the innate caution on Ukraine by US President Joe Biden who is understood to be concerned about provoking a wider global conflict. There are some fears in Whitehall that Mr Sunak may end up encouraging Mr Biden's caution.

The source told Newsnight: "We have stiffened the US resolve at all levels - pressure from us but always friendly. We don't want Rishi to reinforce Biden's caution. We want him to pushing in the way Boris did."
Somliga befarar att UK:s nya premiärminister inte är lika hökaktig som Boris Johnson.

This DC party invite shows all the money to be made off the Ukraine war
Vox skrev:The logos of military contractors Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Pratt & Whitney, and Lockheed Martin were emblazoned on the invitation as the event’s sponsors, below the official Ukrainian emblems and elegant blue script that said the Ukrainian ambassador and defense attaché “request the pleasure of your company.”

[...]

“I’ve never quite seen this kind of public embrace of a country and the weapons contractors as is happening with Ukraine,” Bill Hartung, a researcher at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told me. “I can’t imagine another situation where the contractors would sponsor an event for a country that they’re arming in the middle of a war.”

“It’s one thing to support Ukraine to defend itself, which I think is certainly legitimate,” he added. “But I think the companies want to go beyond that. They want to cash in on this reputationally.”
Den enes död är den andres bröd.

A MiG-29 Pilot’s Inside Account Of The Changing Air War Over Ukraine
The War Zone skrev:Talking to The War Zone in an exclusive interview, nine months after we first spoke to him, the Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter jet pilot, callsign “Juice,” provides a detailed update on the air war over his country.

[...]

In fact, the availability of HARM means that the Ukrainian Air Force can even start to emulate Western-style operations, with suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) packages working closely to escort strike aircraft to their targets. Of course, there are still severe limitations on Ukrainian air combat capabilities, and Juice identifies key missing parts of the puzzle, such as precision-guided air-to-ground munitions, active-radar air-to-air missiles, and advanced fighter radars. “We are trying to do our best with what we have and now it looks much, much better overall,” Juice notes. In particular, he has observed with interest how Russian military bloggers have reacted to HARM. “They’re very, very angry there, because of our successes. And especially their civilians who really believed that there was already no Ukrainian Air Force and no air defense at all.”

“Fortunately, we proved that we really, really need these systems and so we have secured NASAMS, IRIS-T, HAWK, Avenger, and Crotale systems.” While NASAMS and IRIS-T SLM have “proved already they are effective,” gaining the Avenger, in particular, is a win for Juice, on account of its flexibility and its ability to down drones like the Shahed, discussed in the first part of this feature. The same goes for the heavy machine guns with thermal imagery sights that the United States approved for Ukraine last month.
En intressant intervju med en av ukrainska stridspiloter!
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9737
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 17
ISW skrev:The Kremlin is likely attempting to increase perceptions of Putin’s competence and of that of the Russian Ministry of Defense by publicizing Putin’s meeting with the joint headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces and Putin’s appearances at non-military events.

[...]

The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assesses that the Kremlin is not serious about negotiations with Ukraine, agreeing with a longstanding ISW assessment. CIA Director William Burns told PBS NewsHour on December 16, “Most conflicts end in negotiations, but that requires a seriousness on the part of the Russians in this instance that I don't think we see... it's not our assessment that the Russians are serious at this point about a real negotiation.”[22] ISW has consistently assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in negotiating seriously with Ukraine and retains maximalist objectives for the war.[23]
Vad är Putins plan egentligen? Planerar han verkligen en ny (misslyckad) markoffensiv mot Kyjiv från Belarus?

Exclusive: Iranian Regime Eying Venezuela As Sanctuary For Leaders
Iran International skrev:According to these sources, a delegation of four high-ranking regime officials visited Venezuela in mid-October for negotiations to ensure that the Caracas government would grant asylum to high-ranking officials and their families in case "the unfortunate incident" happens.
Et tu, Brute? Samtidigt har USA gett oljebolaget Chevron grönt ljus att verka i Venezuela...

How Amazon put Ukraine’s ‘government in a box’ — and saved its economy from Russia
Los Angeles Times skrev:Since Februrary, Amazon has been playing Santa Claus to Ukraine, delivering planeloads of goods, including blankets, hygiene kits, diapers, food and toys, for the war-torn nation and refugees in Poland and other parts of Europe.

[...]

Amazon didn’t have to worry about its relationship with Russia on the Snowball project. It doesn’t have one. “We didn’t have anything to turn off there,” Maxwell said. “We had never invested there. It’s a point of principle.”
Jeff Bezos har också ambitiösa planer för rymden. Precis som Elon Musk har han goda chanser att språngvis passera Europa (kontinenten, inte månen).

How Putin's War in Ukraine Became a Catastrophe for Russia
The New York Times skrev:Aleksandr, the soldier drafted into the 155th, is still enraged at the way he and his comrades were dropped into Ukraine with few bullets for their aging rifles and forced to live in a cowshed with only a few meal packets to share. His commanders flat-out lied, he said, telling them they were going for additional training — when in fact they were sent to the front lines, where most were killed or grievously wounded.

After months of fighting, Russia announced last month that it had finally captured Pavlivka, but soldiers said it came at tremendous cost.

Aleksandr had been drafted in September along with three close childhood friends, he said. He and another suffered concussions. One lost both legs. The fourth is missing.

But when he is discharged from the hospital, he said, he fully expects to return to Ukraine, and would do so willingly.

“This is how we are raised,” he said. “We grew up in our country understanding that it doesn’t matter how our country treats us. Maybe this is bad. Maybe this is good. Maybe there are things we do not like about our government.”

But, he added, “when a situation like this arises, we get up and go.”
Donald Trump har sagt att han skulle kunna skjuta någon på öppen gata i New York utan att hans anhängare skulle svika honom. Vladimir Putin bevisar det.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9737
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Putin’s War Makes Russian Stocks World’s Worst With Grim Outlook
Bloomberg skrev:February’s selloff prompted a record-long shutdown of the Moscow market. Its dollar-denominated RTS Index has now sunk 35% this year, making it the worst performing benchmark among 92 tracked globally by Bloomberg in local currency terms and third-worst in dollars. The MOEX Russia Index, priced in rubles, has plummeted 44%, on track for the steepest annual drop since 2008. With the strain of war growing, more losses may lie in store.

“Russian stocks reflect a bleak outlook as Western sanctions are starting to weigh on the domestic economy,” said Piotr Matys, a senior currency analyst at InTouch Capital Markets Ltd. “The prospect of a global downturn over the next few quarters does not bode well for Russian oil, especially at the time when the European Union is fully committed to reducing its reliance on Russian commodities.”

[...]

“Without fresh capital inflows, constrained by Western sanctions, Russian stocks are likely to underperform again next year,” Matys at InTouch Capital Markets said.
Förutom pristaket på rysk olja enades EU igår om att införa ett pristak på naturgas på 180 euro/MWh. Vidare har ännu en rysk gasledning exploderat idag.

Putin decides to gift land in Crimea to 'heroes of war'
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, has issued an order, which stipulates that free land plots in the suburbs of Moscow, Crimea and Sevastopol will be given to participants of the war in Ukraine.

[...]

According to the decree, Putin decided to give land to military personnel awarded for their merits in the war, the veterans, and relatives of the perished army servicemen.
Enligt läckta uppgifter röstade "bara" en tredjedel av Krymborna för att ansluta sig till Ryssland. Nu behövs ett folkutbyte, och det snabbt!

Britain to supply Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of artillery ammunition in 2023
Militarnyi skrev:It is reported that Rishi Sunak will call on leaders at JEF to sustain or exceed 2022 levels of support for Ukraine in 2023 through ongoing lethal aid, economic resilience and political backing.

The British prime minister’s call will come as the UK announces it will supply hundreds of thousands of rounds of artillery ammunition next year, under a £250 million contract that will ensure a constant flow of critical artillery ammunition to Ukraine throughout 2023.
Samtidigt uppgår antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster till 8 515 enheter, varav 1 585 stridsvagnar. Vem får slut på utrustning och ammunition först? :roll:

War in Ukraine hinges on who gets more rockets and shells first
Stars and Stripes skrev:Outside estimates of the state of Russia’s artillery stocks vary widely. In a lecture at RUSI late Wednesday, the UK’s Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Tony Radakin said Russia faced a “critical shortage of artillery munitions,” having planned for only a 30 day war. “This means that their ability to conduct successful offensive ground operations is rapidly diminishing.”Yet just days earlier, the head of Estonia’s defense intelligence center estimated Russia still had about 10 million artillery shells in stock and was producing more at a rate of about 3.4 million per year. That, he warned, would allow Russia to continue the war for at least another year.
Uppskattningarna av Rysslands ammunitionsförråd varierar dock.
Senast redigerad av Enceladus den onsdag 21 december 2022 1:56, redigerad totalt 1 gånger.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9737
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Zelensky makes surprise visit to besieged eastern city of Bakhmut
The Hill skrev:He added that Russia has lost almost 99,000 soldiers since its invasion began in February, although that figure could not be independently confirmed.

“Soon there will be 100,000 of the occupiers’ casualties,” Zelensky said. “For what? No one in Moscow can answer this question. And they won’t.”
Börjar det bli dags för Putin att gömma sig i en bunker igen? Igår besökte han Belarus vars diktator Lukashenkas maktposition är svagare än någonsin.

Russia Conflicted on Ukraine Winter Offensive, Senior U.S. Official Says
The Moscow Times skrev:The Russian leadership has conflicting views on whether to launch a winter offensive in Ukraine, which has warned of a fresh Russian attempt to seize Kyiv, a senior U.S. official said Tuesday.

[...]

"Certainly, there are some who, I think, would want to pursue offensives in Ukraine. There are others who have real questions about the capacity for Russia to actually do that," the official said on condition of anonymity.
Det är fortfarande oklart om Ryssland tänker genomföra en ny offensiv. Beslutet blir sannolikt politiskt snarare än militärstrategiskt.

On Snake Island, the rocky Black Sea outcrop that became a Ukraine war legend
CNN skrev: Snake Island has a special place in Ukraine’s folklore, now more than ever. Its defiant defense – when a Russian warship was famously told to “go f*** yourself” – and then reconquest rallied a nation in the early months of the conflict with Russia, puncturing the myth of the invaders’ superiority.

Now, whipped by winter winds, it remains firmly in Ukrainian hands – a speck of rock that has both symbolic and strategic significance.

A CNN team became the first foreign media to visit the island since it was recaptured in June, and to speak with the commander of the operation that led to its liberation.
Var det inte en viss skribent som påstod att ön saknar strategisk betydelse?
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5908
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av dr Cassandra Nojdh »

Enceladus skrev: tisdag 20 december 2022 15:45 On Snake Island, the rocky Black Sea outcrop that became a Ukraine war legend
CNN skrev: Snake Island has a special place in Ukraine’s folklore, now more than ever. Its defiant defense – when a Russian warship was famously told to “go f*** yourself” – and then reconquest rallied a nation in the early months of the conflict with Russia, puncturing the myth of the invaders’ superiority.

Now, whipped by winter winds, it remains firmly in Ukrainian hands – a speck of rock that has both symbolic and strategic significance.

A CNN team became the first foreign media to visit the island since it was recaptured in June, and to speak with the commander of the operation that led to its liberation.
Var det inte en viss skribent som påstod att ön saknar strategisk betydelse?
Enceladus-kolletivets begär efter att utdela fega och lögnaktiga hugg i ryggen tycks vara omättligt. Kollektivet törs inte ens nämna mig vid namn, än mindre referera till det inlägg där detta skrevs: viewtopic.php?p=404545#p404545

Det framgår helt klart av texten (som alltså skrevs 25/2) att min uppfattning då var att ön saknade strategisk betydelse för Ryssland, utan att överfallet där mest var en symbolisk handling. När de ryska styrkorna på ön fick ordentligt på tafsen av Ukraina valde man sedan att evakuera.

Att Ukraina har en annan uppfattning är helt naturligt. Påståendet om att spannmålsfraktavtalet inte skulle ha kommit till styånd om ryssarna suttit kvar på ön går naturligtvis inte att verifiera.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9737
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

US to send precision bomb kits and Patriot missiles in next Ukraine aid package, officials say
CNN skrev:The US is expected to send Ukraine precision bomb kits that will turn existing unguided munitions, or “dumb” bombs, into precision-guided “smart” bombs known as Joint Direct Attack Munitions, or JDAMs, according to multiple US officials.

[...]

The precision bombs could help Ukraine attack fixed Russian defensive lines or other large targets. But they need to be dropped from fighter jets, which remains a significant challenge because of Russia’s own air defenses.

The Ukrainian military would also need to find a way to target and launch JDAMs from Soviet-era aircraft, much as they did with US-made HARM anti-radar missiles earlier this year. The Ukrainian Air Force adapted MiG-29 fighter jets to be able to fire the HARM missile. They will have to do the same for JDAMs.

[...]

The next aid package to Ukraine is also expected to include Patriot air defense systems, as CNN first reported last week.
Enligt amerikanska tidningar planerar Zelenskyj att besöka USA på onsdag. I så fall är det första gången han lämnar landet sedan Rysslands invasion i februari. I tisdags var Zelenskyj på besök vid frontlinjens Bachmut. Vilken intensiv vecka - och snart är det jul!

Final funding bill includes $45B for Ukraine
The Hill skrev:The massive full-year government funding bill released early Tuesday contains $45 billion in new emergency funds for Ukraine in its battle against Russian forces, nearly 20 percent higher than the Biden administration requested.
Här är julklappen som alla väntade på!

Russia's Oil Exports Collapsed Since G-7 Sanctions Began
Bloomberg skrev:European Union sanctions that began on Dec. 5 are designed to curb Russia’s revenue from oil. On one hand, the bloc stopped buying but it also barred the provision of key services to enable the oil to be moved. The US, alarmed at the severity of the measures, pushed for the measures to be softened with the implementation of a price cap, keeping those things — especially insurance — available for buyers elsewhere in the world when traders paid $60 a barrel or less for Russian oil.

But in the first full week after the EU ban on seaborne Russian crude imports came into effect, total volumes shipped from the nation dropped by 1.86 million barrels a day, or 54%, to 1.6 million. A less volatile four-week average also plunged, setting a new low for the year. Baltic Sea volumes should recover with work now ended, but the issues in the East may take longer to solve.

[...]

Inflows to the Kremlin's war chest from its crude-export duty slumped by $77 million, or 54%, to $66 million in the seven days to Dec. 16, while the four-week average income fell by $11 million to $112 million. Export duty revenues were the lowest for the year by either measure.
Det blir allt tydligare att Putin har ingen långsiktig plan.

Video shows Russian gas pipeline explosion that killed 3
Fox News skrev:The explosion ripped through the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline in the Chuvashia region Tuesday afternoon local time, roughly 420 miles east of Moscow, during repair work that apparently caused a huge burst of burning gas to spew into the air, killing three repair workers and injuring a driver.

[...]

Gas exports from Russia – which supplied Europe with roughly 40% of its natural gas in the lead up to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine – have already been disrupted with the damage caused to the Nord Stream pipeline network, which saw multiple explosions earlier this year.
Ja, vad är den långsiktiga planen?
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9737
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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US to send $1.8 billion in aid, Patriot battery, to Ukraine
AP News skrev:The U.S. will send $1.8 billion in military aid to Ukraine in a massive package that will for the first time include a Patriot missile battery and precision guided bombs for their fighter jets, U.S. officials said Tuesday, as the Biden administration prepares to welcome Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Washington.

[...]

So instead of providing Ukraine those U.S. aircraft, the Pentagon is helping Kyiv find innovative ways to upgrade its fleet with the same capabilities it would get with a U.S. fighter jet.

The aid package will also include an undisclosed number of rockets for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, thousands of artillery and mortar rounds, trucks, and HARM air-to-surface anti-radiation missiles.

According to officials, the urgent pleadings of Ukrainian leaders and the devastating destruction of the country’s civilian infrastructure, including loss of electricity and heat during winter, ultimately overcame U.S. reservations about supplying the Patriots.
USA vill fortfarande inte skicka amerikanska stridsflygplan till Ukraina. Däremot lyckades inte Ryssland avskräcka USA från att skicka luftvärnssystemet Patriot.

The war in Ukraine — an analysis of the situation at the front on the 300th day of the war
Babel skrev:The Russian army transferred a significant number of forces to Bakhmut in the Donetsk region and began to advance more actively in that direction. This forces the Armed Forces of Ukraine to charge more and more additional units to the defense of the city in order to hold it. At the same time, in the Luhansk region, the Ukrainian military is slowly advancing towards the city of Kreminna from three sides in order to create a semi-encirclement for the Russian troops there and force them to retreat.
Enligt Def Mon börjar det hetta till i Kreminna. Informationen bekräftas delvis av guvernören i Luhansk.
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 16 december 2022 16:43 Förklaringen är som sagt enkel. De kvarvarande Ariane 5-raketerna är inbokade för andra uppdrag och Ariane 6 är inte färdigställd ännu. Förseningar är inte så ovanliga i raketbranschen, om man inte som Musk tror att man har obegränsat med pengar att ösa in - fast det blir väl svårare nu när han har köpt Twitter till överpris. Starship-projektet går visst lite trögt, har jag hört (det har smällt en del, men det är ju så SpaceX jobbar). Men på något sätt har Musk blivit högerns kelgris. ESA var f.ö. de enda som kunde erbjuda en raket med tillräckligt stor diameter i lastutrymmet när James Webb-teleskopet skulle skickas iväg.
Vega C fails on second launch
SpaceNews skrev:The second flight of Arianespace’s Vega C failed to reach orbit Dec. 20 after its second stage malfunctioned, destroying two Pléiades Neo imaging satellites.

[...]

The failure of the Vega C deals another blow to European efforts to maintain autonomy in launch. The Vega C was one of the cornerstones of that strategy, along with the still-in-development Ariane 6, with the European Union awarding Arianespace a contract Nov. 29 for five Vega C launches of Sentinel satellites. That contract brought the Vega C backlog to 13 launches, along with two remaining launches of the original Vega.
Europas rymdprogram befinner sig i kris. Förhoppningsvis går det bättre med ESA:s satellit EarthCARE. Precis som rymdteleskopet Euclid var det planerat att satelliten skulle skjutas upp med ryska Soyuz-raketer. Att än en gång springa till Musk med svansen mellan benen torde vara uteslutet.
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5908
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 21 december 2022 11:28
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 16 december 2022 16:43 Förklaringen är som sagt enkel. De kvarvarande Ariane 5-raketerna är inbokade för andra uppdrag och Ariane 6 är inte färdigställd ännu. Förseningar är inte så ovanliga i raketbranschen, om man inte som Musk tror att man har obegränsat med pengar att ösa in - fast det blir väl svårare nu när han har köpt Twitter till överpris. Starship-projektet går visst lite trögt, har jag hört (det har smällt en del, men det är ju så SpaceX jobbar). Men på något sätt har Musk blivit högerns kelgris. ESA var f.ö. de enda som kunde erbjuda en raket med tillräckligt stor diameter i lastutrymmet när James Webb-teleskopet skulle skickas iväg.
Vega C fails on second launch
SpaceNews skrev:The second flight of Arianespace’s Vega C failed to reach orbit Dec. 20 after its second stage malfunctioned, destroying two Pléiades Neo imaging satellites.

[...]

The failure of the Vega C deals another blow to European efforts to maintain autonomy in launch. The Vega C was one of the cornerstones of that strategy, along with the still-in-development Ariane 6, with the European Union awarding Arianespace a contract Nov. 29 for five Vega C launches of Sentinel satellites. That contract brought the Vega C backlog to 13 launches, along with two remaining launches of the original Vega.
Europas rymdprogram befinner sig i kris. Förhoppningsvis går det bättre med ESA:s satellit EarthCARE. Precis som rymdteleskopet Euclid var det planerat att satelliten skulle skjutas upp med ryska Soyuz-raketer. Att än en gång springa till Musk med svansen mellan benen torde vara uteslutet.
Propagandistiska floskler av typen "Europas rymdprogram befinner sig i kris" och " med svansen mellan benen" går enbart Rysslands och Putins ärenden. Det är exakt det här Putin vill få oss att tro. ESA:s avgörande misstag (som de var långt ifrån ensamma om) var att tro att det i längden skulle gå att ha fungerande relationer med Ryssland, och nu när det inte går längre blir ju marginalerna avsevärt smalare.

Men det är klart att det inträffade är ett bakslag: Vega-C rocket fails after lift-off, a major setback for Europe
Efterfrågan på satellituppskjutningar är just nu avsevärt större än vad raketmarknaden kan tillgodose, och ESA sitter(fastän uppskjutningsförsöket 20/12 inte skedde i ESA:s regi - många kan inte skilja mellan ESA och Arianespace)) i samma klämma som NASA och U.S. Space Force och div. kommersiella aktörer, man har försatt sig i en situation där man är helt beroende av en sådan typ som Musk. Och detta oavsett vad Encedadus-kollektivet anser "torde vara uteslutet".

Men först som sist: Vad har detta med kriget i Ukraina att göra?. Kan vi få slippa att dra denna pseudodiskussion vidare.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9737
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: onsdag 21 december 2022 18:29 Propagandistiska floskler av typen "Europas rymdprogram befinner sig i kris" och " med svansen mellan benen" går enbart Rysslands och Putins ärenden. Det är exakt det här Putin vill få oss att tro. ESA:s avgörande misstag (som de var långt ifrån ensamma om) var att tro att det i längden skulle gå att ha fungerande relationer med Ryssland, och nu när det inte går längre blir ju marginalerna avsevärt smalare.

[...]

Men först som sist: Vad har detta med kriget i Ukraina att göra?. Kan vi få slippa att dra denna pseudodiskussion vidare.
Kriget i Ukraina har uppenbarligen försatt Europas rymdprogram i kris. ExoMars är ännu ett av krigets offer. Här är en god nyhet för Rysslands rymdprogram:

Rysk höjdare skadad i attack – uppgifter om dödsfall
Aftonbladet skrev:Den ryske höjdaren Dmitrij Rogozin skadades på onsdagen i en artilleriattack i östra Ukraina.

[...]

Enligt Telegram-kanalen Baza firade Rogozin sin födelsedag i hotellets restaurang och fick splitterskador i huvudet, bakdelarna och i ena låret. Baza uppger också att två personer dödades i attacken och att ytterligare fem skadades. Även Tass skriver att två personer dog i bombningen.

[...]

Rogozin var generaldirektör för Roscosmos sedan 2018 när han i somras byttes ut av Kreml. Har har varit en av de ivrigaste påhejarna av kriget i Ukraina och har gjort sig känd för sin hårda retorik gentemot väst.
Efterträdaren Borisov gör ett betydligt bättre intryck. Men skadan redan är skedd.

$1.85 Billion in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
Department of Defense skrev:On December 21, as part of President Zelenskyy's visit to the White House, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced $1.85 billion in additional security assistance for Ukraine. This includes the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $1 billion, as well as $850 million in assistance via the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).

[...]

Under USAI, the DoD will also provide Ukraine with:
  • 45,000 152mm artillery rounds;
  • 20,000 122mm artillery rounds;
  • 50,000 122mm GRAD rockets;
  • 100,000 rounds of 125mm tank ammunition;
  • SATCOM terminals and services;
  • Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.
Förutom ett Patriot-batteri och annan västerländsk utrustning får Ukraina en hel del sovjetisk ammunition. Varifrån kommer den egentligen? Ryssland är förstås också en stor bidragsgivare - till och med den största i flera kategorier. Som synes har maktbalansen på slagfältet förändrats under de senaste månaderna till Ukrainas fördel, men Ryssland har fortfarande ett numerärt övertag. Däremot har Ukraina ett kvalitativt övertag, åtminstone beträffande artilleri.

Russian mobile calls, internet seen deteriorating after Nokia, Ericsson leave
Reuters skrev:"If, presumably, this situation lasts for years, Russian cellular networks in terms of coverage may return to the state of the late 1990s, when their coverage was limited to large cities and the richest suburbs," said Leonid Konik, who runs the IT publication ComNews in Moscow.

[...]

Chinese telecoms equipment maker Huawei, the biggest vendor in Russia last year with more than a third of the market, will continue to provide software updates and continue maintenance work, but has stopped selling new equipment in Russia, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Kommer inte den kinesiska räddaren i nöden? :roll:
Enceladus
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russian weapon systems: Spoils from the battlefield
Globe Echo skrev:With the help of the Ukrainian armed forces, the BND spies have been procuring Russian military technology for several months and analyzing the booty from the battlefield in Germany. The first tests of armor and defense technologies are said to have already taken place, including ballistic tests, which are carried out together with the Bundeswehr. And the Russian guided missiles, target detection systems and Iranian drones deployed by Moscow are also high on the BND’s wish list.

[...]

When the war began in February, not only the German diplomats but also the BND left Ukraine for the time being. In the meantime, however, the service is active again in Ukraine. From there, the BND not only obtains information on the course of the war for the federal government, but also regularly provides the Ukrainian side with intelligence information on the Russian armed forces.
Tysklands underrättelsetjänst BND kanske inte gjorde det bästa intrycket i början av Rysslands invasion av Ukraina, men den verkar ta en aktiv roll i kriget. Nu behöver BND inte längre bekymra sig om att försämra Tysklands relation med Ryssland.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 21
ISW skrev:Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu proposed a series of expansive reforms and goals for Russian force generation that Russia is highly unlikely to complete in time to be relevant to the current conflict.
Samma dag som Zelenskyj träffade Biden höll Rysslands högsta militärledning möte i Moskva. Bland annat lovade Putin att det inte finns någon gräns för hur mycket pengar landet är redo att lägga på "den speciella militäroperationen". Men varken ISW eller Dara Massicot låter sig imponeras.
Enceladus
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European gas price below €100/MWh for the first time since June
The Brussels Times skrev:On Wednesday, the European gas price dropped below the mark of €100 per Megawatt-hour (MWh) due to the warmer weather in Europe and the announced EU agreement on a €180 price cap from mid-February.

[...]

It has been since June that the price of natural gas dipped below the €100 mark. In August, an absolute record was recorded when the price peaked above €340/MWh.
Under de senaste fyra månaderna har EU:s förbrukning av naturgas minskat med 20,1 procent jämfört med föregående fem år. Enligt den andra grafen i artikeln är förbrukningen mer än dubbelt så stor på vintern som på sommaren, vilket tyder på att en överväldigande del går till uppvärmning. Intressant nog hade EU samtidigt den största industriproduktionen någonsin, trots den minskade gasförbrukningen. Vem är det som har störst uthållighet nu?
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: torsdag 22 december 2022 5:00
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: onsdag 21 december 2022 18:29 Propagandistiska floskler av typen "Europas rymdprogram befinner sig i kris" och " med svansen mellan benen" går enbart Rysslands och Putins ärenden. Det är exakt det här Putin vill få oss att tro. ESA:s avgörande misstag (som de var långt ifrån ensamma om) var att tro att det i längden skulle gå att ha fungerande relationer med Ryssland, och nu när det inte går längre blir ju marginalerna avsevärt smalare.

[...]

Men först som sist: Vad har detta med kriget i Ukraina att göra?. Kan vi få slippa att dra denna pseudodiskussion vidare.
Kriget i Ukraina har uppenbarligen försatt Europas rymdprogram i kris. ExoMars är ännu ett av krigets offer.
Det är svårt att göra någonting åt fixa idéer, tydligen. Som att Enceladus-kollektivet inte fattar att det springer Putins ärenden genom att ständigt påstå att ESA:s (använd rätt beteckning!) rymdforskningsprogram "uppenbarligen" är i "kris". ExoMars är inget "offer" men kommer förstås att bli svårare och ta längre tid att genomföra.

Så sluta lämpligen upp med ovanstående dumheter!
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
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Putin says Russia wants end to war in Ukraine
Reuters skrev:Putin also played down the significance of the Patriot air defense system that Biden agreed to supply to Zelenskiy, saying Russia would find a way to counter it.

He said it was "quite old" and did not work like Russia's S-300 system. "An antidote will always be found," he said, boasting Russia would "crack" the Patriots.

"So those who do it are doing it in vain. It's just prolonging the conflict, that's all."
Det amerikanska luftvärnssystemet Patriot är inte längre en röd linje för Ryssland, utan bara ett föråldrat vapensystem som de ryska styrkorna kan slå ut. Detta påminner om det ryska ordspråket "sista kinesiska varningen" från kalla kriget, ungefär synonymt med tomt hot. Hur många röda linjer har redan korsats?

Patriot to Ukraine: What Does It Mean?
CSIS skrev:The United States is sending Patriot to Ukraine for three reasons: to help defend against Russian missile attacks, which are pounding Ukrainian cities and disrupting utilities; to strongly convey political support; and because the United States has few other air defenses to send.

[...]

Older Patriot missiles designed for air defense were rushed into combat in Desert Storm as a strategic asset, although the effectiveness against Iraq’s Scud missiles has been the object of considerable dispute. The follow-on efforts in the 1990s resulted in the Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC) to better defeat theater ballistic missiles. PAC-1 and PAC-2 interceptors used a blast fragmentation kill mechanism. The newer PAC-3 missiles employ a hit-to-kill device. 

In contrast with the experience of Desert Storm, Patriot interceptors defeated every ballistic missile they engaged during the 2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom. Since 2015, Patriot has successfully engaged scores of missiles and drones in the Yemen Missile War. Israel has likewise used it on a number of occasions to defeat drones, aircraft, and other threats.
Varför skickar USA just luftvärnssystemet Patriot? Enligt tankesmedjan CSIS är symbolvärdet en av orsakerna. Analytikern Peter Zeihan har sagt att Ryssland kan slösa bort väldigt många dyrbara missiler på att försöka slå ut Patriot av propagandaskäl. Men systemets prestanda är förstås en annan viktig orsak.

Russian ex-deputy PM says he was wounded in Ukraine, needs operation
Reuters skrev:"I have wounds -- a piece of metal 8 millimetres by 6 millimetres (1/3 to 1/4 inch) that entered above the right shoulder blade," Rogozin said on Telegram. "There will have to be an operation. Several people close to me were also hit."

Tass news agency quoted a Rogozin aide as saying he would be transported to Moscow as local doctors had decided an operation was too risky.

[...]

In Kherson, local officials blamed "Ukrainian terrorists" for the attack that killed local official Andrei Shtepa.
Är det goda eller dåliga nyheter för Ukraina att clownen Rogozins skada är värre än befarat? Quislingen Andrei Shtepa är däremot ett viktigt mål.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 8 533 enheter, varav 1 589 stridsvagnar, 67 flygplan och 73 helikoptrar. Dessutom brinner Rysslands enda hangarfartyg Admiral Kuznetsov igen! Fartyget byggdes ursprungligen i ukrainska Mykolajiv. Kan Ryssland ens bygga hangarfartyg utan Ukrainas hjälp?

Russia scrubs Mariupol's Ukraine identity, builds on death
AP News skrev:Throughout Mariupol, Russian workers are tearing down bombed-out buildings at a rate of at least one a day, hauling away shattered bodies with the debris.

Russian military convoys are rumbling down the broad avenues of what is swiftly becoming a garrison city, and Russian soldiers, builders, administrators and doctors are replacing the tens of thousands of Ukrainians who have died or left.

Many of the city’s Ukrainian street names are reverting to Soviet ones, with the Avenue of Peace that cuts through Mariupol to be labeled Lenin Avenue. Even the large sign that announces the name of the city at its entrance has been Russified, repainted with the red, white and blue of the Russian flag and the Russian spelling.

[...]

Mariupol is now torn between Russia and Ukraine. Some people who stayed are waiting for Russian citizenship just to get on with their lives. Yet the Ukrainian letter ï , which is not found in Russian, is appearing as gr-ff-t- around the city — a small act of defiance in a place many described as full of fear.
Ryssland förryskar ockuperade områden. Samtidigt river Ukraina ryska monument - liksom övriga Östeuropa. Är detta början på ett nytt kallt krig?
Enceladus
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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22
ISW skrev:Putin’s use of the term “war” when regarding to the invasion of Ukraine has prompted some confusion within the Russian information space. Putin had stated during the press conference that Russia seeks to “not to spin this flywheel of a military conflict, but on the contrary - to end this war.” Putin used this word—war--instead of the phrasing “special military operation” when falsely accusing Ukraine of starting a war against its population in 2014. Putin’s mention of “war” prompted a few milbloggers to state that they have always used both terms interchangeably because “every thinking person knows that what is happening in Ukraine is a hot war,” despite the lack of an official declaration of war by Russia.[6] The confusion indicates that Putin’s limited war narrative may conflict with his presentation of the “special military operation” as a fight for Russia’s sovereignty while not being an official war.
Har Putin råkat försäga sig?

For first known time in public, Putin calls fighting in Ukraine a ‘war’
CNN skrev:“Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war,” Putin told reporters in Moscow, after attending a State Council meeting on youth policy. “We have been and will continue to strive for this.”

[...]

A US official told CNN their initial assessment was that Putin’s remark was not intentional and likely a slip of the tongue. However, officials will be watching closely to see what figures inside the Kremlin say about it in the coming days.
En talesperson för USA:s regering säger till tidningen CNN att Putins ordval förmodligen inte var avsiktligt.

Biden Targets Russian Mercenaries Accused of Ukraine Atrocities
Bloomberg skrev:“The amount of material delivered to Wagner will not change battlefield dynamics in Ukraine, but we are certainly concerned that North Korea is planning to deliver more military equipment,” Kirby said, adding that the US would raise Pyongyang’s arms shipments at the United Nations Security Council because it violated the council’s resolutions.

[...]

Kirby said Thursday that Prigozhin is spending more than $100 million per month to fund the group’s operations in Ukraine and that the leader traveled to Russian prisons to recruit convicts to fight on the battlefield. The administration estimates Wagner has 50,000 personnel on the ground in Ukraine, including 40,000 convicts and 10,000 contractors.

[...]

“It seems as though Mr. Prigozhin is willing to just throw Russian bodies into the meat grinder in Bakhmut,” he added referencing a city that has seen heavy fighting.
Wagnergruppen har förvånansvärt många stridande fångar i Ukraina som tydligen förses med vapen från Nordkorea, i strid med FN:s resolutioner.

Russian Elite Increasingly Divided On What To Do If Country Defeated In Ukraine – OpEd
Eurasia Review skrev:There are fears that in the event of ever more defeats, Russia may have “to give up Crimea, and from there it’s a slippery slope to full capitulation with international war tribunals, years of reparations and the installation of a pro-Western government” in Moscow, the analyst continues.

“That is why no party of peace has emerged in Russia: in the country’s current vulnerable position, it would instantly become the party of defeat; and no one is yet ready to join the ranks of the losers.” But “even if there is no defeat, there will still be an increasingly distinct dividing line within the pro-war camp” between the realists and those favoring further escalation.

The realists, she says, “believe that since Russia cannot win the war right now, it should pause the fighting to work on rebuilding its army and economy as well as revamping the political system.” For them, “it was a mistake to start the war” and to hold referendums but they aren’t prepared to “giving up Russia’s positions: the front line must be defended.”

Among the realists are the technocrats, of course, but also “siloviki, senior officials and prominent businessmen, “pragmatists rather than supporters of victory at any cost because they have everything to lose.”
Ukrainas krav på krigstribunaler och miljardtunga skadestånd får delar av den ryska eliten att darra, speciellt när det börjar bli klart att Ryssland inte kan vinna.

Attacken mot ryske toppolitikern i Donetsk – en signal från Ukraina
DN skrev:Senast var han chef för Roskosmos, den ryska rymdstyrelsen motsvarande amerikanska Nasa. Han avskedades dock från den posten i juli i år, efter aggressiva uttalanden om att krascha internationella rymdstationen ISS över USA eller Europa, och att lämna en amerikansk astronaut kvar på ISS för att dö.

[...]

Särskilt pikant med tanke på att han nu ansluter sig till ”denazifieringen” av Ukraina är att han själv gjorde nazisthälsning offentligt under 00-talet – det finns fångat på film. Han var då en del i en ultranationalistisk rysk rörelse och grundare av ett högerextremt parti.

[...]

Att anfallet kunde utföras framgångsrikt visar att det i Donetsk finns gott om personer med sympatier för Ukraina som är beredda att ta stora risker – någon eller några hade uppenbarligen informerat den ukrainska militären om Rogozins planer.
En naturlig chef för Putins rymdstyrelse!
Enceladus
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Inside the Ukrainian counteroffensive that shocked Putin and reshaped the war
The Washington Post skrev:On Sept. 6, just past 3:30 a.m., Oleh’s company of about 100 soldiers, part of the 25th Airborne Assault Brigade, began to advance in small columns of three infantry fighting vehicles each. For hours before they started to move, Ukrainian artillerymen had been pounding Russian positions with U.S.-made M270 multiple launch rocket systems.

Command posts. Ammunition depots. Fuel storage facilities. The firing was relentless. Across the front, Ukrainian military officials later said, Russian soldiers or their separatist proxies struggled to receive orders or coordinate with nearby forces as the rockets rained down. Some troops began to retreat.
Ändå envisas en viss skribent med att hävda motsatsen:
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: tisdag 06 september 2022 8:43 Det finns inga undervapen. Långräckviddiga vapen är däremot bra att ha, totalt sett har Ukraina fortfarande för liten eldkraft. Dessutom har man dessvärre tvingats slösa bort många M31-missiler för att förstöra broarna över Dnepr.
Tydligen finns det undervapen!

Suspected Russian Agent in Germany Had Access to Western Intelligence About Ukraine War
WSJ skrev:American and British officials said they were trying to determine the scope of potential damage in Ukraine and elsewhere. One U.S. official said there was “grave concern” about the case.

[...]

Germany scaled down counterespionage efforts in the early 2000s, becoming vulnerable to Russian operations, according to Mr. Kiesewetter and other experts.

[...]

German officials suspect Russia is behind several sophisticated acts of sabotage such as the destruction of the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines and an October attack on the railroad that temporarily halted all rail traffic in the north of the country.
En misstänkt rysk spion i Tyskland hade tillgång till västs underrättelser om kriget i Ukraina. Vidare misstänks Ryssland ligga bakom höstens tågsabotage.

Ukraine fighting is deadlocked, spy chief Kyrylo Budanov tells BBC
BBC skrev:Mr Budanov said Russia was "now completely at a dead end" suffering very significant losses, and he believed the Kremlin had decided to announce another mobilisation of conscripts. But, he added, Ukrainian forces still lacked resources to move forward in multiple areas.

[...]

Although Iran has provided most of the drones used in Russia's attacks, the spy chief says it has so far refused to deliver missiles to Russia, aware that Western countries are likely to impose measures on Tehran, already under crippling sanctions because of its nuclear programme.
Ryssland tycks ha kört fast. Däremot saknar Ukraina tillräckliga resurser för att avsluta kriget. Samtidigt sägs Iran tveka om att skicka missiler till Ryssland.

Lithuania’s defense minister is leery Russia will run out of ammo
Defense News skrev:Looking back at support Ukraine from March until now, the process probably was not as fast as we would have liked, but it is going on and now we’re start speaking about the transfer of air defense systems and Western-type armored equipment. Even now Lithuania is now transferring to Ukraine sniper equipment, night vision equipment, optics, to contribute to creating an advantage for the Ukrainians on the battlefield at night.
Kommer Ukraina äntligen att få det militära stöd som krävs för att avsluta kriget?

Explosions heard near Engels airfield in Russia, local media report
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:RIA Novosti, citing Saratov governor Roman Busargin, reported that in the Engels district, an anti-aircraft defence system destroyed an "unknown object". The authorities assure that there is no threat to the safety of local residents.

[...]

Strategic aircraft belonging to the Russian Federation are located at Engels airfield. This air base was attacked twice in December. According to Russian media, these were strikes by Ukrainian drones.
Den ryska flygbasen Engels har attackerats för tredje gången. Enligt rykten på sociala medier sköt ryssarna ner ett eget stridsplan, och piloten uppges ha dött.
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Enceladus skrev: torsdag 29 december 2022 16:26 Inside the Ukrainian counteroffensive that shocked Putin and reshaped the war
The Washington Post skrev:On Sept. 6, just past 3:30 a.m., Oleh’s company of about 100 soldiers, part of the 25th Airborne Assault Brigade, began to advance in small columns of three infantry fighting vehicles each. For hours before they started to move, Ukrainian artillerymen had been pounding Russian positions with U.S.-made M270 multiple launch rocket systems.

Command posts. Ammunition depots. Fuel storage facilities. The firing was relentless. Across the front, Ukrainian military officials later said, Russian soldiers or their separatist proxies struggled to receive orders or coordinate with nearby forces as the rockets rained down. Some troops began to retreat.
Ändå envisas en viss skribent med att hävda motsatsen:
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: tisdag 06 september 2022 8:43 Det finns inga undervapen. Långräckviddiga vapen är däremot bra att ha, totalt sett har Ukraina fortfarande för liten eldkraft. Dessutom har man dessvärre tvingats slösa bort många M31-missiler för att förstöra broarna över Dnepr.
Tydligen finns det undervapen!
Om det är någon som envisas så är det Enceladus-kollektivet. Det krävs inte mycket militärtekniskt kunnande för att inse att det inte finns några "undervapen". Att hålla på att tjafsa om detta visar bara på ett barnsligt behov av att käfta emot. Däremot har långräckviddigt raketartilleri visat sig vara så pass slagkraftigt att det nu intresserar många Nato-länder. Även Sverige tittar på detta. Men det är ett ruskigt dyrt system. Möjligen kan Boeings och SAABs kombination av raket och glidflygbomb - GLSDB - ändra på den saken. Hur det blir med detta för Ukrainas del är väl fortfarande i stöpsleven
(Send the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb to Ukraine)

Det största problemet nu är M30/M31-missilernas begränsade räckvidd. Någon avgörande betydelse strategiskt kommer raketartilleriet inte att få förrän Ukraina får tillgång till tyngre missiler som ATACMS ( liksom attackflyg). Först då kan de ryska angriparna attackeras på djupet inom hela det ockuperade området.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
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Danish military intelligence suggests drug-induced megalomania may have influenced Putin to invade Ukraine
Berlingske skrev:FE does not expect Putin to die from this illness.

But over time, it may lead the Russian elites to decide they need a stronger man at the helm.

»It’s our firm impression that part of the elite do see they are heading down the wrong track.«
En intressant artikel om Putins tillstånd av Danmarks äldsta dagstidning Berlingske.

Will Joe Biden Send Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine?
19FortyFive skrev:Washington and its NATO allies have, rightly or wrongly, feared that certain weapons are too provocative to give Ukraine and risk inciting dangerous escalation by Putin. Those particularly pertain to jet fighters and Western-built main battle tanks. An oddity of this policy is that NATO has given plenty of advanced artillery systems to Ukraine that are likely to cause more Russian losses than tanks; and air defense systems that are far more expensive and advanced.

[...]

The U.S. has literally thousands of spare Bradleys it’s not using that it can sign off to Ukraine at little cost. But the logistical and training measures needed to integrate Bradleys into Ukraine’s military and support them in the field, would remain significant. For that reason, a U.S. transfer of these would need to be of sufficient scale, and effectively sustained over enough time to ensure a worthwhile return on the effort invested.

[...]

Bradleys wouldn’t be ‘game changers’—but, if delivered in adequate quantity, could still enhance and expand Ukraine’s ground maneuver forces, which need such protected mobility vehicles to recapture Ukrainian territory. So they could eventually contribute to Kyiv’s endgame of driving Russian forces out of Ukraine through a combination of attrition and maneuver.
Ukraina förefaller ha goda chanser att få det amerikanska pansarskyttefordonet Bradley.

Ukraine claims hundreds of Russian troops killed in strike; Moscow says 63 died
CNN skrev: The attack has led to vocal criticism of Moscow’s military from pro-Russian military bloggers, who claimed that the troops lacked protection and were reportedly being quartered next to a large cache of ammunition, which is said to have exploded when Ukrainian HIMARS rockets hit the school.

[...]

Girkin has long decried Russian generals whom he claims direct the war effort far from the frontline, calling them “unlearned in principle” and unwilling to listen to warnings about putting equipment and personnel so close together in HIMARS range. Girkin was previously minister of defense of the self-proclaimed, Russian-backed Donetsk People’s Republic, and was found guilty by a Dutch court of mass murder for his involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014.
Men det finns ju inga undervapen! :roll:

Russia risks causing IT worker flight with remote working law
Reuters skrev:Russia's buffetted IT sector risks losing more workers in the new year because of planned legislation on remote working, as authorities try to lure back some of the tens of thousands who have gone abroad without prompting them to cut ties completely.

[...]

Professional online poker player Sasha, 37, also living in Argentina, said he had now stopped paying Russian taxes.

"When you pay taxes you support the state and its military expansion," he said. "I'm not paying and don't plan to."
Samtidigt fortsätter kompetensflykten...
Användarens profilbild
dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5908
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av dr Cassandra Nojdh »

Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Användarens profilbild
dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5908
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av dr Cassandra Nojdh »

Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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