Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

Och vad i består "bakläxan" av? Att man inte medger att fransk/brittiska vapen får användas till att attackera rysk territotium?

Ukrainska drönare lyckades ta sig förbi ryskt luftförsvar obehindrat:

The Frontelligence Insight conducted a visual analysis of satellite imagery to assess the impact of a Ukrainian UAV attack on an aircraft repair facility in Taganrog, The imagery indeed validates the damage sustained by the facility.

[...]

5/ Further satellite imagery analysis shows that at least one S-300/400 battery was present at the airfield during the attack. Unless it serves as a decoy, this suggests the Ukrainian UAV's ability to penetrate Russian air defense systems, even in proximity to strategic objects

6/ In summary, our team recognizes that the destruction or damage of the A-50 can't be definitively concluded from this. Nonetheless, this remains a significant achievement for Ukraine due to the ability to bypass AD and target an important facility within Russian territory.

Som sagt, detta understryker Rysslands behov av (automatkanon)system för att bekämpa dem på ett (kostnads)effektivt sätt! Men det blir ännu värre:

1/4 I believe it's a good time to give a quick update on FPV drone usage. Let's start with the progression and total numbers. As we know from my last update, February was one of the most intense months for FPV drone usage, and it's now confirmed that the growth is at least quadratic and shows no signs of stopping. As of March 9th, Ukrainians have already used 721 drones, and at this rate of growth, they will reach January's results in just a week.

In terms of overall usage, Russia is falling behind. There are different possibilities for why this is happening - lack of drones, lack of pilots, lack of dedicated ammunition - but I think a combination of the first two factors is the most likely. Overall, Russia doesn't have the staggering numbers claimed by its propaganda.

Kvantitet har också en egen kvalitet! Skulle inte Stalin vara Putins förebild?

Oil depot on fire after drone attack in Kursk, Russia – video

Authorities in the Russian city of Kursk say a fire has broken out at an oil depot after a drone attack.

[...]

The media also reported that a massive fire broke out on a gas pipeline near the village of Likhma in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug.

The fire's glow and smoke column were visible for several kilometres.

Ännu en gasexplosion i Chantien-Mansien!? Det är ju tur att gasledningen Yamal-Europe inte längre behövs!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Vad Ryssland behöver för att försvara sig intresserar mig inte så mycket.

UAV-er är nog bra, men det är vanskligt att bedöma dess skadeverkningar utifrån enstaka händelser. Dessutom vet vi inte hur många UAV-attacker Ryssland lyckas avvärja, de händelserna får vi aldrig reda på. Vill man åstadkomma ordentlig strategisk skadeverkan för Ryssland krävs troligen missiler. Se vidare viewtopic.php?p=418712#p418712

Vart det skulle leda är svårt att säga. Exilförfattaren Arkadij Babtjenko har i alla fall sin uppfattning klar: viewtopic.php?p=415029#p415029

De uppgifter som Enceladus-kollektivet plockat upp från Musk-kloaken är f.ö. omöjliga att verifiera, trots flashiga diagram.

[Enceladus]

The Guardians utrikeskrönikör Simon Tisdall avfyrar en riktig bredsida mot både Donald Trump och Joe Biden:
The US as defender of democracy won’t win votes. Donald Trump gets it, but Joe Biden doesn’t

Germany’s reputation for decisive leadership is in tatters when Europe needs it most

Trump #2, if it happens, may be the other geostrategic shoe to drop. Scholz unflinchingly prioritises the transatlantic alliance. On Ukraine, he marches in slow-step with Joe Biden. But Europe-deriding, Russia-admiring Trump imperils these bonds. Like Britain, Germany in 2025 could be caught between two fires.

[...]

Unedifying arguments over who – France or Germany – is giving the most, and most effective, assistance to Ukraine have intensified of late. Like other allies, Berlin flatly rejected Macron’s nouveau-hawkish suggestion that Nato consider deploying troops in Ukraine. As with Taurus, Scholz’s great fear is escalation – a fear that Moscow cynically fans.

[...]

Macron senses another Zeitenwende in the war against Russia. A repentant appeaser, he wants to supercharge Europe’s war effort, galvanise the allies as American resolve falters, and hand Putin a totemic, generational defeat. But he cannot do it without Germany – and Scholz slogs stubbornly along at his own cautious pace.

Inte heller Scholz kommer undan. Han försöker gömma sig bakom Biden, men vad händer om Trump vinner? I så fall tvingas hela Europa vänta på Merz...

Vital Russian Supply Lines In Black Sea Cut By Ukrainian Drones

In late February two Russian government ships did something highly unusual. The transport ship Sparta-IV and tanker Yaz were sailing from the Russian base at Tartus in Syria towards the Black Sea. These ships are generally used to transport military assets. Sparta-IV has previously been used to ship S-300 missile systems from Syria to Russia, and Yaz is the sister ship of Sig which was hit by Ukrainian maritime drones on August 5 2023.

But this time, as the ships approached the Bosporus, the Strait which connects the Mediterrean to the Black Sea, they abruptly turned around. This is another strong indicator that Ukraine’s maritime drones are having a strategic impact.

[...]

Sailing around Europe via the Straits of Gibraltar and up to the Baltic will add weeks to the voyage. Russia will still likely receive the valuable cargoes, but it cannot move freely across the Black Sea. We do not suggest that Russian ships will stop sailing in the Black Sea altogether, but the threat of drones appears enough to seriously limit them.

Det går uppenbarligen att "åstadkomma ordentlig strategisk skadeverkan för Ryssland" utan missiler...

Ex.vis. Så det är inte så sensationellt som "Breaking Defense" försöker framställa det. Den här "moderniseringen" är fabulöst dyr, B61-12 kostar mer än sin vikt i guld.

F-35A Is Officially Certified For Nuclear Strike

F-35As being able to deliver nuclear strikes will add major credibility to NATO’s nuclear deterrence posture in Europe. The aircraft’s unique ability to pierce enemy air defense networks and defend itself on the way to its target will be a standing capability Russia has never had to deal with. The F-117 was capable of delivering nuclear strikes. It could have been called upon to do so, but that was not part of its normal mission purview, and the aircraft remained deeply classified during the tail end of the Cold War, complicating its use in such a role and its deterrence value. You can read more about this in our special feature here.

The F-35’s added survivability will complicate Moscow’s ability to defend against these strikes and whatever predictive modeling they have on the probability of those strikes succeeding will have to be adjusted accordingly. This capability can also be used in other theaters, including the Korean peninsula and the wider Pacific region, but there isn’t a similar standing tactical nuclear weapons delivery mission there as there is in Europe.

A spokesman from the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO), Russ Goemaere, said yesterday that the certification was achieved on October 12, according to a report from Breaking Defense. The milestone was achieved earlier than planned — the U.S. Air Force had previously announced that it aimed to have the F-35A certified to carry the B61-12 by January 2024.

The War Zone tycks göra samma bedömning som Breaking Defense...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

The Guardians utrikeskrönikör Simon Tisdall avfyrar en riktig bredsida mot både Donald Trump och Joe Biden:
The US as defender of democracy won’t win votes. Donald Trump gets it, but Joe Biden doesn’t

Germany’s reputation for decisive leadership is in tatters when Europe needs it most

Trump #2, if it happens, may be the other geostrategic shoe to drop. Scholz unflinchingly prioritises the transatlantic alliance. On Ukraine, he marches in slow-step with Joe Biden. But Europe-deriding, Russia-admiring Trump imperils these bonds. Like Britain, Germany in 2025 could be caught between two fires.

[...]

Unedifying arguments over who – France or Germany – is giving the most, and most effective, assistance to Ukraine have intensified of late. Like other allies, Berlin flatly rejected Macron’s nouveau-hawkish suggestion that Nato consider deploying troops in Ukraine. As with Taurus, Scholz’s great fear is escalation – a fear that Moscow cynically fans.

[...]

Macron senses another Zeitenwende in the war against Russia. A repentant appeaser, he wants to supercharge Europe’s war effort, galvanise the allies as American resolve falters, and hand Putin a totemic, generational defeat. But he cannot do it without Germany – and Scholz slogs stubbornly along at his own cautious pace.

Inte heller Scholz kommer undan. Han försöker gömma sig bakom Biden, men vad händer om Trump vinner? I så fall tvingas hela Europa vänta på Merz...

Friedrich Merz (CDU) och Markus Söder (CSU) är hycklare som vill bygga ett regeringsunderlag med hjälp av fascisterna och putinisterna i AfD:
Är Merkels efterträdare på väg att göra en Kristersson?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Vital Russian Supply Lines In Black Sea Cut By Ukrainian Drones

In late February two Russian government ships did something highly unusual. The transport ship Sparta-IV and tanker Yaz were sailing from the Russian base at Tartus in Syria towards the Black Sea. These ships are generally used to transport military assets. Sparta-IV has previously been used to ship S-300 missile systems from Syria to Russia, and Yaz is the sister ship of Sig which was hit by Ukrainian maritime drones on August 5 2023.

But this time, as the ships approached the Bosporus, the Strait which connects the Mediterrean to the Black Sea, they abruptly turned around. This is another strong indicator that Ukraine’s maritime drones are having a strategic impact.

[...]

Sailing around Europe via the Straits of Gibraltar and up to the Baltic will add weeks to the voyage. Russia will still likely receive the valuable cargoes, but it cannot move freely across the Black Sea. We do not suggest that Russian ships will stop sailing in the Black Sea altogether, but the threat of drones appears enough to seriously limit them.

Det går uppenbarligen att "åstadkomma ordentlig strategisk skadeverkan för Ryssland" utan missiler...

Det intressanta här är om turkarna har börjat betrakta dessa fartyg som förhindrade av passera genom Bosporen. Frågan om tolkningen av Montreux-konventionens tolkning var uppe redan i krigets inledning: Is Russia Exploiting a Gap in the Montreux Convention?

I övrigt väljer Enceladus-kollektivet att inte förstå vad jag åsyftar. Därför väljer jag att inte kasta pärlor.............

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ex.vis. Så det är inte så sensationellt som "Breaking Defense" försöker framställa det. Den här "moderniseringen" är fabulöst dyr, B61-12 kostar mer än sin vikt i guld.

F-35A Is Officially Certified For Nuclear Strike

F-35As being able to deliver nuclear strikes will add major credibility to NATO’s nuclear deterrence posture in Europe. The aircraft’s unique ability to pierce enemy air defense networks and defend itself on the way to its target will be a standing capability Russia has never had to deal with. The F-117 was capable of delivering nuclear strikes. It could have been called upon to do so, but that was not part of its normal mission purview, and the aircraft remained deeply classified during the tail end of the Cold War, complicating its use in such a role and its deterrence value. You can read more about this in our special feature here.

The F-35’s added survivability will complicate Moscow’s ability to defend against these strikes and whatever predictive modeling they have on the probability of those strikes succeeding will have to be adjusted accordingly. This capability can also be used in other theaters, including the Korean peninsula and the wider Pacific region, but there isn’t a similar standing tactical nuclear weapons delivery mission there as there is in Europe.

A spokesman from the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO), Russ Goemaere, said yesterday that the certification was achieved on October 12, according to a report from Breaking Defense. The milestone was achieved earlier than planned — the U.S. Air Force had previously announced that it aimed to have the F-35A certified to carry the B61-12 by January 2024.

The War Zone tycks göra samma bedömning som Breaking Defense...

Det icke-sensationella ligger i att det här är en helt planerad utveckling. Den första provfällningen av en B61-12 (givetvis ett icke skarpladdat exemplar - annat var det före 1963, då USA fällde bomber i megatonstorlek över provområden i Stilla Havet) från en F-35 gjordes redan 2019.



Efter en del hit och dit har USA bestämt att det endast är F-35 som får det gränssnitt som kan aktivera bombens navigationsmekanism och få den att styra mot en visst mål. Styrningen sker förstås inom ramen för kastbanemekanikens lagar, eftersom B61-12, i likhet med de konventionella JDAM-bomberna, saknar aerodynamiska bärplan. Skottvidden bör bli ungefär lika här, dvs. knappt 30 km, beroende på vilken flyghöjd bomben fälls från. Vilket är knappt säkerhetsavstånd för en kärnladdning på 50 kiloton, "a “modest standoff capability" som kärnvapenexperten Hans Kristensen uttrycker det.

Jämfört med den äldre B61-4, med en maximal sprängstyrka på 170 kiloton ökar detta förstås det vapenbärande flygplanets överlevnadsförmåga en del, tidigare kunde en sådan här insats vara rena självmordsuppdraget. I övrigt är det mycket propagandasnack här.

Låt oss hoppas att vi aldrig får anledning att studera hur väl F-35-plan kan penetrera det ryska luftförsvaret, speciellt inte kärnvapenbestyckade dito.

Den som till äventyrs vill läsa mer om vad USA:s "nuclear sharing" innebär kan studera detta: https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-11 ... ring-2023/

Vid sidan av de franska kärnvapnen är detta de enda taktiska kärnvapen som finns i Nato-Europa. Jmfr. med Rysslands myller av taktiska kärnvapenbärare: viewtopic.php?p=418532#p418532
'
Kan vi lägga undan kärnvapensnacket nu?

[Enceladus]

European arms imports nearly double, US and French exports rise, and Russian exports fall sharply

States in Europe almost doubled their imports of major arms (+94 per cent) between 2014–18 and 2019–23. Far larger volumes of arms flowed to Asia and Oceania and the Middle East in 2019–23, where nine of the 10 largest arms importers are. The United States increased its arms exports by 17 per cent between 2014–18 and 2019–23, while Russia’s arms exports halved. Russia was for the first time the third largest arms exporter, falling just behind France. The global volume of international arms transfers fell slightly by 3.3 per cent between 2014–18 and 2019–23, according to new data on international arms transfers published today by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), available at www.sipri.org.

Rysk vapenexport har halverats. Nu är det Frankrike som innehar andraplatsen bland världens alla vapenexportörer. Även den så viktiga invandringen minskar!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

European arms imports nearly double, US and French exports rise, and Russian exports fall sharply

States in Europe almost doubled their imports of major arms (+94 per cent) between 2014–18 and 2019–23. Far larger volumes of arms flowed to Asia and Oceania and the Middle East in 2019–23, where nine of the 10 largest arms importers are. The United States increased its arms exports by 17 per cent between 2014–18 and 2019–23, while Russia’s arms exports halved. Russia was for the first time the third largest arms exporter, falling just behind France. The global volume of international arms transfers fell slightly by 3.3 per cent between 2014–18 and 2019–23, according to new data on international arms transfers published today by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), available at www.sipri.org.

Rysk vapenexport har halverats. Nu är det Frankrike som innehar andraplatsen bland världens alla vapenexportörer. Även den så viktiga invandringen minskar!

Det är bra, då kan de exportera fler AASM Hammer till Ukraina. 50 bomber i månaden är iofs. bra, men egenligen i minsta laget. Några SAMP/T system skulle inte skada heller.

[Enceladus]

Att kalla det här China's security penetration into Europe through Hungary - Orbán increases his blackmailing capacity för "bjuda in" är en grov underdrift, det är i själva verket att lägga sig platt för den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen.

Trump rocks the boat on TikTok and Ukraine

The House Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously passed a bipartisan bill Thursday that would force the sale of TikTok by ByteDance, the company that owns it, or face a ban in the United States. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise wants it on the floor Wednesday. And Biden said he will sign it if it reaches his desk.

But then Trump — who pushed repeatedly for a TikTok ban or sale to a U.S. company as president — waded in. Trump said on Truth Social “If you get rid of TikTok, Facebook and Zuckerschmuck will double their business” — referring to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

[...]

We also want to note the reports in CNN and the New York Times about the possibility that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have ordered the use of a tactical nuclear weapon if Russian territory was seized by Ukrainian forces during their devastating counteroffensive in October 2022.

Biden commented on the issue at the time, and there was extensive planning by the National Security Council on how the United States should respond.

USA förberedde sig på en rysk kärnvapenattack i Ukraina, men den kom aldrig. Överdrevs risken? Vidare har Xi vissa krav för att stödja Trumps återkomst:

Xi Jinping is cheering for Trump to win

A cluster of illiberal leaders, including Russia's Vladimir Putin, North Korea's Kim Jong Un, Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan, are chomping at the bit for Trump's return. But likely no one is yearning more than Xi.

[...]

Trump's blunderbuss administration swung wildly in all directions as it sought to make life difficult for China's economy and rarely made meaningful contact. Xi's economic policy team nimbly pivoted to limit fallout, while U.S. allies seethed in anger as they suffered collateral damage.

Biden's China policy mix, by contrast, has undermined the world's second-biggest economy with surgical precision. His team has gone after soft targets, including limiting access to key technologies needed to propel China Inc. upmarket and making life difficult for Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges.

[...]

These Trump-era blunders played into Xi's hands. While the Republican was busy making 1985 great again, Team Xi focused on its "Made in China 2025" strategy to dominate everything from EVs and semiconductors to renewable energy, artificial intelligence, biotechnology and aviation.

Biden is taking a very different approach. With some of Washington's biggest-ever investments in infrastructure and climate change and "Buy American" requirements for government procurement, Biden did more in two years to get the U.S. economy into shape than many eight-year presidencies.

Biden sägs ha skapat en mirakelekonomi som lämnar resten av världen i kris - inklusive Europa. Kan det bli ett förnyat samarbete mellan Kina och Europa?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Biden sägs ha skapat en mirakelekonomi som lämnar resten av världen i kris - inklusive Europa. Kan det bli ett förnyat samarbete mellan Kina och Europa?

Man kan inte "samarbeta" med en diktatur som den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen, bara underkasta sig.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Vidare har Xi vissa krav för att stödja Trumps återkomst:

Xi Jinping is cheering for Trump to win

A cluster of illiberal leaders, including Russia's Vladimir Putin, North Korea's Kim Jong Un, Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan, are chomping at the bit for Trump's return. But likely no one is yearning more than Xi.

[...]

Trump's blunderbuss administration swung wildly in all directions as it sought to make life difficult for China's economy and rarely made meaningful contact. Xi's economic policy team nimbly pivoted to limit fallout, while U.S. allies seethed in anger as they suffered collateral damage.

Biden's China policy mix, by contrast, has undermined the world's second-biggest economy with surgical precision. His team has gone after soft targets, including limiting access to key technologies needed to propel China Inc. upmarket and making life difficult for Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges.

[...]

These Trump-era blunders played into Xi's hands. While the Republican was busy making 1985 great again, Team Xi focused on its "Made in China 2025" strategy to dominate everything from EVs and semiconductors to renewable energy, artificial intelligence, biotechnology and aviation.

Biden is taking a very different approach. With some of Washington's biggest-ever investments in infrastructure and climate change and "Buy American" requirements for government procurement, Biden did more in two years to get the U.S. economy into shape than many eight-year presidencies.

Biden sägs ha skapat en mirakelekonomi som lämnar resten av världen i kris - inklusive Europa. Kan det bli ett förnyat samarbete mellan Kina och Europa?

Har Biden skapat en "mirakelekonomi? Det verkar i vart fall de amerikanska väljarna inte uppskatta eller ens anse.
Ekonomin går som tåget – väljarstödet kvar på stationen

Orban har som bekant träffat Trump, och har nu talat om vad som gäller: Donald Trump won’t give ‘a penny’ to Ukraine if elected, Orbán says

In an interview following the meeting — during which Trump and Orbán discussed “a wide range of issues” — the Hungarian prime minister praised the Republican front-runner as a “man of peace” who would bring an end to the all-out war in Ukraine, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has been waging since February 2022.

“If the Americans don’t give money and weapons, along with the Europeans, the war is over,” he said. “And if the Americans don’t give money, the Europeans alone can’t finance this war. And then the war is over.”
[..... ]

According to Orbán, Trump has a “detailed plan” to end the war in Ukraine, which marries with Hungary’s interests. Orbán, who has maintained contact with Putin amid Russia’s full-scale invasion, has repeatedly said he is opposed to sending more money and weapons to Kyiv.

Och den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturens intressen också, förstås. Men först gäller det förstås för Orban och hans gelikar; Fico, Wilders, AfD, Le Pen, Vox etc. etc. att kamma hem valet till EU-parlamentet!

[Enceladus]

Beriev A-100 är uppenbarligen en pappersprodukt. Vidare säger Rostecs vd att T-14 Armata är "för dyr" för att användas i Ukraina. Ännu en pappersprodukt!

Russia sacks naval commander after humiliating Black Sea losses

Putin sacked Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, who had led the navy since 2019, and replaced him with Alexander Moiseev, commander of its Northern Fleet, two Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times.

[...]

Ukrainian officials who confirmed the change in Russia’s navy leadership also told the FT that an attack by Ukraine at the weekend had critically damaged two Russian A-50 long-range radar detection planes at an aircraft repair facility in the southern port city of Taganrog.

[...]

The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant last week for Sokolov and Sergei Kobylash, commander of Russia’s long-range aviation, on charges of crimes against humanity for directing missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Ryssland sägs sparka sin överbefälhavare för den ryska flottan Nikolaj Jevmenov efter alla förluster. Vidare kan Ryssland ha förlorat två till radarspaningsplan.

Russian military cargo plane crashes with 15 people on board

Russia said one of its Ilyushin Il-76 military cargo planes crashed shortly after takeoff on Tuesday with 15 people on board due to a fire in one of its engines.

Ett ryskt militärt fraktflygplan av typen Iljusjin Il-76 har kraschat i Ivanovoregionen nordost om Moskva. Hur går det egentligen med underhållet av flygplan?

Drone attacks cause fires at two oil facilities in Russia (updates)

According to BBC Russia, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that air defense forces “destroyed and intercepted” 25 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones overnight across various regions. The breakdown includes seven drones allegedly destroyed in Belgorod Oblast, 11 in Kursk Oblast, two each in Moscow and Oryol Oblasts, and one each in Bryansk, Leningrad, and Tula Oblasts.

[...]

According to the Russian Telegram channel Astra, citing its sources, a drone attack at the Orelnefteprodukt JSC enterprise in Oryol damaged a 2,000 cubic meter tank containing 150 tons of gasoline, resulting in a leakage of petroleum products.

[...]

Referring to regional authorities, the Russian state-funded TASS news agency said drones on 12 March morning “attacked the Kstovo industrial zone, a facility of the fuel and energy complex, and a fire broke out at one of the oil refining units.”

Ukraina genomförde en massiv drönarattack mot infrastruktur i Rysslands västra delar - inklusive 800 km från Ukrainas gräns! Hur länge håller Ryssland ut?

Ukraine pounds targets in Russia, key refinery seriously damaged

Industry sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the main crude distillation unit (AVT-6) at NORSI was damaged in the attack, which means that at least half of the refinery's production is halted. Lukoil declined to comment.

NORSI refines about 15.8 million tonnes of Russian crude a year, or 5.8% of total refined crude, according to industry sources.

It also refines about 4.9 million tonnes of gasoline, 11% of Russia's total, 6.4% of diesel fuel, 5.6% of fuel oil and 7.4% of the country's aviation fuel, according to industry sources.

Ryssland får alltså smaka på min egen medicin:

Ryssarna satsar som synes stenhårt på detta vapen, vilket understryker Ukrainas behov av (automatkanon)system för att bekämpa dem på ett (kostnads)effektivt sätt.

Vem är det som behöver automatkanonsystem nu igen?

Ukraine Situation Report: Grounded Ship Being Used As Russian Base Blown Up

Ukraine's armed forces have shared a video showing what they say is a strike on a ship that was being used as an improvised base for Russian operations. The grounded ship is located on the south side of the Dnipro River, near the city of Kherson.

What weapon was used in the strike isn't clear, but it stuck with significant force. A Storm Shadow or SCALP-EG may have been the culprit considering where the ship was hit, the damage that was caused, and especially if the vessel was fully grounded and not moving significantly with the tides. A JDAM-ER precision-guided bomb is another possibility, although a less likely one due to a number of factors, including the effects we are seeing in the video.

[...]

Some say that the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam in June of 2023 resulted in it breaking free and floating into its current position. Satellite imagery The War Zone has examined supports that claim. The Russians supposedly commandeered the abandoned ship for use as a surveillance post and forward base. From its location just downriver and across from Ukraine-held Kherson, it could have provided an opportune position for collecting intelligence, especially on amphibious operations on the contested waterway, stage, and more.

Dessutom har Ukraina eliminerat ett fartyg som användes som en improviserad bas för ryska operationer vid floden Dnipro. Vilket vapen kan ha använts här?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Russia sacks naval commander after humiliating Black Sea losses

Putin sacked Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, who had led the navy since 2019, and replaced him with Alexander Moiseev, commander of its Northern Fleet, two Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times.

Ryssland sägs sparka sin överbefälhavare för den ryska flottan Nikolaj Jevmenov efter alla förluster.

Efterträdare (åtminstone t.f.) verkar bli amiral Aleksandr Aleksejevitj Moisejev, en typisk rysk amiralsbuse (Rysslands "hjälte" som synes):

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ryssarna satsar som synes stenhårt på detta vapen, vilket understryker Ukrainas behov av (automatkanon)system för att bekämpa dem på ett (kostnads)effektivt sätt.

Vem är det som behöver automatkanonsystem nu igen?

Har vi problem med innantilläsningen? Det är ju Ukraina.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Drone attacks cause fires at two oil facilities in Russia (updates)

According to BBC Russia, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that air defense forces “destroyed and intercepted” 25 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones overnight across various regions. The breakdown includes seven drones allegedly destroyed in Belgorod Oblast, 11 in Kursk Oblast, two each in Moscow and Oryol Oblasts, and one each in Bryansk, Leningrad, and Tula Oblasts.

[...]

According to the Russian Telegram channel Astra, citing its sources, a drone attack at the Orelnefteprodukt JSC enterprise in Oryol damaged a 2,000 cubic meter tank containing 150 tons of gasoline, resulting in a leakage of petroleum products.

[...]

Referring to regional authorities, the Russian state-funded TASS news agency said drones on 12 March morning “attacked the Kstovo industrial zone, a facility of the fuel and energy complex, and a fire broke out at one of the oil refining units.”

Ukraina genomförde en massiv drönarattack mot infrastruktur i Rysslands västra delar - inklusive 800 km från Ukrainas gräns! Hur länge håller Ryssland ut?

Ukraine pounds targets in Russia, key refinery seriously damaged

Industry sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the main crude distillation unit (AVT-6) at NORSI was damaged in the attack, which means that at least half of the refinery's production is halted. Lukoil declined to comment.

NORSI refines about 15.8 million tonnes of Russian crude a year, or 5.8% of total refined crude, according to industry sources.

It also refines about 4.9 million tonnes of gasoline, 11% of Russia's total, 6.4% of diesel fuel, 5.6% of fuel oil and 7.4% of the country's aviation fuel, according to industry sources.

Ryssland får alltså smaka på min egen medicin:

Vapentekniskt är det ju tacksamt att attackera petroleumindustrin som ju är en ganska brandfarlig hantering. Det krävs inte så stora sprängladdningar för att åstadkomma en ganska avsevärd skada. Dock inte i närheten av den förödelse ryssarna totalt sett skapat i Ukraina.

Attacken behöver alltså inte vara så "massiv" (i huvudsak ett propagandaord). Ska man skada annan infrastruktur så krävs betydligt kraftigare vapenverkan.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Russian military cargo plane crashes with 15 people on board

Russia said one of its Ilyushin Il-76 military cargo planes crashed shortly after takeoff on Tuesday with 15 people on board due to a fire in one of its engines.

Ett ryskt militärt fraktflygplan av typen Iljusjin Il-76 har kraschat i Ivanovoregionen nordost om Moskva. Hur går det egentligen med underhållet av flygplan?

Kyiv Post beskriver detta mer ingående: Dramatic Footage Shows Russian IL-76 Army Cargo Plane Crashing With 15 on Board

En rejäl flamma i styrbords yttermotor:



Vid så där stora bränder är ju risken betydande att vingen brinner av, eller i alla fall blir så pass försvagad att planet inte går att manövrera längre. Det är antagligen också vad som hände, oavsett hur branden uppkom. Det har förekommit rykten om att den skulle vara ett resultat av ukrainsk vapenverkan: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/24/7438639/

[Enceladus]

Ingen, inte ens Enceladus-kollektivet, har f.ö. kunnat ge någon rimlig förklaring till varför ATACMS torkade in för Ukrainas del, efter det fåtal (kanske 20 st.) ATACMS M39-missiler som tillhandahölls under oktober 2023.

White House expected to send more ATACMS munitions to Ukraine

The package will include a number of the Anti-Personnel/Anti-Materiel, or APAM, an older version of the long-range ATACMS, which travels 100 miles and carries warheads containing hundreds of cluster bomblets, according to one of the officials. All were granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement.

The tranche will also include additional rounds for the 155mm howitzers and the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, according to that official and one other U.S. official. The U.S. first sent a first shipment of mid-range ATACMS in September.

The news comes as Congress stalls on passing President Joe Biden’s supplemental request that includes additional funding for the war in Ukraine, as well as aid for Israel and Taiwan. The Pentagon has been unable to send additional weapons to Kyiv since December, when it ran out of money to replenish its stocks.

Jag citerar en viss skribent: "Det finns ingenting som är rimligt i amerikansk inrikespolitik just nu." Blir det en överraskning i Dzjankoj på ockuperade halvön?

US preparing new weapons package for Ukraine, officials say

The announcement is set to come as Poland’s president and prime minister meets President Joe Biden at the White House later on Tuesday to talk about ways to bolster support for Ukraine.

[...]

Denmark will provide a new military aid package including Caesar artillery systems and ammunition to Ukraine worth around 2.3 billion Danish crowns ($336.6 million), the Danish Defence Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.

European Union countries are set to agree on a new 5 billion-euro ($5.46 billion) top-up to a fund used to finance military shipments to Ukraine, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, citing four officials briefed on the discussions.

Polens ledare ska tydligen träffa Biden i Vita huset. Danmark bidrar förstås också. Jag har hört att det går bra för landets ekonomi.

Vid så där stora bränder är ju risken betydande att vingen brinner av, eller i alla fall blir så pass försvagad att planet inte går att manövrera längre. Det är antagligen också vad som hände, oavsett hur branden uppkom.

Här är en video som visar hur motorn lossnar från planet. Rysk ingenjörskonst?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Vid så där stora bränder är ju risken betydande att vingen brinner av, eller i alla fall blir så pass försvagad att planet inte går att manövrera längre. Det är antagligen också vad som hände, oavsett hur branden uppkom.

Här är en video som visar hur motorn lossnar från planet. Rysk ingenjörskonst?

Inte ett dugg konstigt. Det brinner ju utanför motorn, vilket förklarar varför motorns brandsläckningssystem inte rår på branden. Troligen har en bränsleledning på något sätt sprungit läck och därefter har det utströmmande bränslet fattat eld.

I viss mån en parallell till den olycksaliga Concorde AF 4590

Varför bränsleledningen sprang läck kan man ju spekulera om. I Concorde-fallet brast ett av däcken efter att ha kört över metallskrot som befann sig på rullbanan. Däcksfragmenten slog sedan sönder en bränsleledning.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ingen, inte ens Enceladus-kollektivet, har f.ö. kunnat ge någon rimlig förklaring till varför ATACMS torkade in för Ukrainas del, efter det fåtal (kanske 20 st.) ATACMS M39-missiler som tillhandahölls under oktober 2023.

White House expected to send more ATACMS munitions to Ukraine

The package will include a number of the Anti-Personnel/Anti-Materiel, or APAM, an older version of the long-range ATACMS, which travels 100 miles and carries warheads containing hundreds of cluster bomblets, according to one of the officials. All were granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement.

The tranche will also include additional rounds for the 155mm howitzers and the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, according to that official and one other U.S. official. The U.S. first sent a first shipment of mid-range ATACMS in September.

The news comes as Congress stalls on passing President Joe Biden’s supplemental request that includes additional funding for the war in Ukraine, as well as aid for Israel and Taiwan. The Pentagon has been unable to send additional weapons to Kyiv since December, when it ran out of money to replenish its stocks.

Jag citerar en viss skribent: "Det finns ingenting som är rimligt i amerikansk inrikespolitik just nu." Blir det en överraskning i Dzjankoj på ockuperade halvön?

Javisst, jag hade ju rätt hela tiden.

Men någon förklaring är det inte. En fullt möjlig hypotes är att USA har haft svårt att hitta och skaka fram funktionsdugliga raketer ur sina djupaste gömmor.

Av texten i Politico att döma

an older version of the long-range ATACMS, which travels 100 miles and carries warheads containing hundreds of cluster bomblets

förefaller det även denna gång vara ATACMS M39, ett vapen av begränsat militärt värde, och med en skottvidd på ~ 160 km. Dzjankoj, som nämns och som av Enceladus-kollektivet beskrivs som (då var det GLSDB som var "undervapnet")

The Pentagon has successfully tested a new long-range precision bomb for Ukraine that is expected to arrive on the battlefield as soon as Wednesday, according to two U.S. officials and two other people with knowledge of the talks.

[...]

The weapon, co-developed by Boeing and Saab, is made up of a precision-guided 250-pound bomb strapped to a rocket motor and fired from various ground launchers. The U.S. military has a similar version of the bomb that is air-launched, but a ground-launched version does not yet exist in U.S. inventory.

[...]

Ukraine will be the first country to use the bomb in combat, making it a critical test case for other countries that have been snapping up long-range munitions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Jag hoppas att ryssarna inte läser västliga medier. Vid Dzjankoj finns en av de största militärbaserna på halvön och i närheten av orten finns även en flygbas

ligger inom denna skottvidd, givet att missilen avfyras från den västra sidan av Dnepr.


En ATACMS M39 kan döda ett antal ryssar och förstöra ett antal flygfarkoster eller fordon, men inte så mycket mer (beroende på hur pass fortifierade byggnaderna i grannskapet är, se vidare Air Base Attacks and Defensive Counters (RAND) Sedan kan man ju fråga sig om ryssarna verkligen låter sig överraskas igen.

De värdefulla ryska resurserna på södra Krim kommer man inte åt utan ATACMS M57(E). Det har Ben Hodges redan förklarat: viewtopic.php?p=417320#p417320

[Enceladus]

Men någon förklaring är det inte. En fullt möjlig hypotes är att USA har haft svårt att hitta och skaka fram funktionsdugliga raketer ur sina djupaste gömmor.

USA verkar också ha skakat fram gammal hederlig klusterammunition:

Just now: @PentagonPresSec confirms that today's $300 million Drawdown includes 155mm DPICMs. The first time these have been provided since September.

Tanken var visst att ryssarna skulle överraskas igen av den nya ATACMS-leveransen, men det kliade för mycket i fingrarna:

The NSC: we will not disclose ATACMS deliveries due to OPSEC concerns

Also the NSC: deliberately leaks it to the press immediately despite the Ukrainians requesting secrecy

Det republikanska partiet har som bekant en knapp majoritet i representanthuset. Denna tycks krympa ytterligare, åtminstone för en månad:

By the numbers: Buck's resignation will bring Republicans down to 218 seats to Democrats' 213, meaning Republicans can afford just two defections on any given party-line vote.

Democrats are likely to get to 214 seats in an April special election to replace Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.), who resigned in February.

Republicans are then set to pick up seats in May and June elections to replace House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and former Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), respectively.

Demokraterna har precis öppnat en ny "discharge petition". Detta avhopp kan dock öka chansen för "defeating the previous question" där enkel majoritet krävs.

Man skulle lika gärna kunna kritisera USA för att de inte tillhandahåller AGM-158 JASSM.

Istället får Polen hela 821 kryssningsmissiler av typen AGM-158B-2, d.v.s. tidigare JASSM-XR som når 1 900 km. De behövs nog på den här sidan Atlanten!