Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Tilläggas kan att Forbes skrev en artikel om vad som faktiskt pågår, redan för två månader sedan. Det tragiska är att inget har hänt sedan dess (annat än att Kongressens ledamöter unnat sig en välförtjänt påskledighet, något som Ukrainas statsledning och folk inte kan tillåta sig)

Forbes-skribenten menar här att kopplingen till immigration och gränsbevakning bara är en fint.
Johnson Intended To Stop Ukraine Aid, Not Pass An Immigration Bill

When House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) insisted in October 2023 that a border bill be passed in exchange for aid to Ukraine, he never expected to pass immigration legislation. After months of fruitless effort in immigration negotiations, it is clear Johnson’s goal was to prevent the House of Representatives from voting on Ukraine aid. So far, he has succeeded.

House Republicans’ refusal to pass aid to Ukraine has shifted the military balance in one or more theaters of the war, according to observers. “Russian advances in Avdiivka, which increasingly looks likely to become the first Ukrainian city to fall since the capture of Bakhmut last May, are the direct result of acute ammunition shortage—caused by the U.S. Congress withholding further military aid to Ukraine,” reported Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign-affairs correspondent for the Wall Street Journal.

Supplies, manpower and logistics decide wars. “With few exceptions, the major power wars of the past several centuries were in the end decided by grinding exhaustion more than by the operational art of even the greatest of the modern great captains,” writes Boston University professor Cathal J. Nolan, author of The Allure of Battle: A History of How Wars Have Been Won and Lost. After examining centuries of warfare, Nolan concluded that what appear to be “stalemates” are “broken only after attritional wearing turned wars into contests of endurance.”

House Republicans, whether they realize it or not, are choosing a side in the Russia-Ukraine war by preventing aid from reaching Ukraine. According to former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, “Blocking aid to Ukraine is giving aid to Putin.” Prior to 2023, no House speaker or political party conditioned support for a national security measure on passing far-reaching immigration legislation.

[Enceladus]

Hahaha, vädermagi. Nä, så går det bara till i Narnia-romanerna. Men i Orsk är de nog inte så glada:

Exclusive: Russia considers easing gasoline environmental requirements, sources say

Russia's government is looking at the possibility of introducing some easing of rigorous fuel environmental standards in order to allow the usage of low-quality gasoline in the face of possible fuel shortages, three industry sources told Reuters.

According to sources' calculations, it could bring in additional 10%, or between 300,000 metric tons and 350,000 tons a month, of gasoline to the domestic market, enough to meet rising seasonal demand.

Ukrainian drone attacks have reduced Russian primary oil refining capacity by some 14% as of the end of March according to Reuters calculations. Russia says the drone attacks amount to terrorism.

[...]

Orsk refinery, which has stopped output due to powerful floods, and Angarsk plant in eastern Siberia, account for the bulk of low-grade gasoline production in Russia.

Inte undra på att Ryssland har ständiga naturkatastrofer och Europas lägsta medellivslängd...

Putinkritik efter ”värsta översvämningar på 70 år” – Orenburg evakueras

Jag hör att den uråldriga devisen "good Tsar, bad Boyars" alltjämt gäller i Ryssland. Dessvärre är det inte bojarerna som är problemet, utan tsaren.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det tidigare inlägget har flyttats till en annan tråd.

Problemet är bara att det här är de enda offensiva operationer Ukraina kan genomföra just nu. Att angripa ryska uppmarschområden och (för)störa den ryska logistiken kräver kraftigare vapenverkan, och det vore tacknämligt om USA kunde tillhandahålla den istället för pekpinnar.

Brady Africk håller med: Let Ukraine strike military targets in Russia with Western weapons

When explosions rocked the Russian city of Belgorod late last year, the Kremlin baselessly blamed Ukraine’s use of Czech-supplied weapons. When a transport plane was shot down over Russian airspace, the Kremlin asserted that a US-supplied air defense system was used. Meanwhile, Russia has not hesitated to lob North Korean missiles and Iranian drones at Ukraine. Russian missiles have also violated the airspace of Poland – a Nato member– before striking Ukraine.

Håller Brady Africk med mig? Det vet jag väl inte, det jag har skrivit innebär inte nödvändigtvis att jag helt instämmer i hans åsikter. Däremot har jag tidigare refererat till ett inlägg som framför ungefär samma åsikt: viewtopic.php?p=418712#p418712

Påfallande mycket putinism i kommentarsfältet till artikeln (Daily Telegraph tillhör de medier som ännu inte insett att sådana bara blir tummelplatser för högerextremister, fascister och putinister).
Ex.

Trusting Ukraine would be unwise. It is in Ukraine's interest to drag NATO into the war, since they're in dire straits, but it is most certainly not in ours to go from a cold WW3 to a hot one. Over the course of the conflict Zelensky has tried several times to use one Russian action or another to get us involved, and he's not been entirely unsuccessful in that, if you look at how far we've come from our original strategy of giving him limited help while urgently pushing for peace. We'd be mad to trust him not to sacrifice us to save himself and his people.

Det kan ju mycket väl vara ett ryskt troll som skriver, men också en brittisk högerextremist. Formuleringarna överensstämmer i stort med hur amerikanska högerextremister uttrycker sig. Det finns en hel del högerextremism i UK, vilket också var bidragande till Brexit. Redan under mellankrigstiden fanns en hel del britter som tyckte att "den där Hitler borde man väl kunna komma överens med".

Flera av kommentarerna går i stil med "låt Ryssland ta vad de vill ha i Ukraina", ett europeiskt storkrig är värre. Dessutom kommer ryssarna aldrig att våga angripa Nato". Vad man inte förstår då är Rysslands övergripande strategiska mål, och avsikten att pröva hur stabila Nato och EU egentligen är som institutioner. Men många britter tror sig sitta säkert på "sein verdammter Insel", som A. Hitler uttryckte det.

Ovanstående skulle kunna ses som ett exempel på hur infekterad den europeiska högerextremismen är av putinistiskt tänkande. Vi tar det igen:

Det här visar vilka proryska underströmmar som finns inte bara inom den indiska utan också både inom den amerikanska och europeiska extremhögern. Nu när Ryssland inte längre är en kommunistisk utan istället fascistisk diktatur så en landet ju egentligen en "naturlig allierad" (för högerextremisterna).

[Enceladus]

Ovanstående skulle kunna ses som ett exempel på hur infekterad den europeiska högerextremismen är av putinistiskt tänkande. Vi tar det igen:

Det här visar vilka proryska underströmmar som finns inte bara inom den indiska utan också både inom den amerikanska och europeiska extremhögern. Nu när Ryssland inte längre är en kommunistisk utan istället fascistisk diktatur så en landet ju egentligen en "naturlig allierad" (för högerextremisterna).

Som sagt, Putins invandringspolitik får Europas vänsterliberaler att framstå som xenofober. Jag har svårt att tro att den europeiska extremhögern helt plötsligt har insett fördelarna med massinvandring av lågutbildad arbetskraft. Därför är Putin ingen "naturlig allierad", utan snarare någon som utnyttjar nyttiga idioter.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ovanstående skulle kunna ses som ett exempel på hur infekterad den europeiska högerextremismen är av putinistiskt tänkande. Vi tar det igen:

Det här visar vilka proryska underströmmar som finns inte bara inom den indiska utan också både inom den amerikanska och europeiska extremhögern. Nu när Ryssland inte längre är en kommunistisk utan istället fascistisk diktatur så en landet ju egentligen en "naturlig allierad" (för högerextremisterna).

Som sagt, Putins invandringspolitik får Europas vänsterliberaler att framstå som xenofober. Jag har svårt att tro att den europeiska extremhögern helt plötsligt har insett fördelarna med massinvandring av lågutbildad arbetskraft. Därför är Putin ingen "naturlig allierad", utan snarare någon som utnyttjar nyttiga idioter.

Putin kan givetvis aldrig vara någon naturlig allierad till någon, egentligen. Men det finns de som tror det. De har i regel dålig kunskap om vad som egentligen sker i Ryssland. Eller också idealiserar de landet, ungefär som de europeiska kommunisterna gjorde under sovjetdiktaturen.

I övrig hänvisar jag till mitt tidigare inlägg: viewtopic.php?p=419255#p419255

[Enceladus]

Dara Massicot skriver ganska bra, trots att hon jobbar på RAND, något som rabulisten Gerry Kasparov dömde ut här: viewtopic.php?p=411572#p411572 och som Enceladus-kollektivet hade det dåliga omdömet att citera.

Samuel Charap Named Inaugural Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy at RAND

“Sam's deep expertise in Russia, its neighbors, as well as U.S. policy toward the region aligns perfectly with our ambitious goals for this position,” said RAND President and CEO Jason Matheny. “I'm confident that he will push forward a bold research agenda that helps policymakers better understand the complexities of the region and drives important contributions to U.S. foreign policy.”

At RAND, Charap's research has addressed Russia's challenge to U.S. interests, key trends in the broader region, and recommendations for U.S. policy. Since February 2022, he has published extensively on the implications of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including Avoiding a Long War, a widely read report coauthored by Miranda Priebe, and An Unwinnable War, a commentary originally published in Foreign Affairs.

[...]

The RAND Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy was funded by a gift from the Stand Together Trust.

Det gjorde Kasparov rätt i. Den självutnämnde desinformationsbekämparen Pekka Kallioniemi förklarar varför:

He's also member of the Valdai Discussion Club, a Moscow-based think tank that has been described as a "Russian equivalent to Davos", and Dutch sociologist Van Herpen wrote that the club is a soft power effort by the Kremlin in service of Russian foreign policy goals. 3/18

[...]

Charap has also been a strong opponent of military aid to Ukraine. In Jan 2022, he published an article on Foreign Policy titled "The West's Weapons Won't Make Any Difference to Ukraine". Take a look at the maps below and tell me if you agree with Mr. Charap. 12/18

[...]

All this wouldn't worry me too much if Mr. Charap and his silly talks about negotiations and criticism of military aid were ignored. But they're not. Charap's a regular visitor to the White House's National Security Council (NSC), headed by Jake Sullivan. 15/18

Det ska vidare noteras att Stand Together Trust grundades av Charles Koch.

Davis är associerad med med "tankesmedjan" Defence Priorities", en organisation som är nära knuten till just senator Rand Paul:
https://www.defensepriorities.org/
Allies of Rand Paul, Koch take aim at hawks
En slags modern isolationism alltså, även om den inte nödvändigtvis behöver vara kopplad till beundran för (vad man tror är) Putins samhällsmodell.

Skribenten verkar dock redan vara bekant med bröderna Koch - de som finansierade Defense Priorities (observera den amerikanska stavningen).

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Dara Massicot skriver ganska bra, trots att hon jobbar på RAND, något som rabulisten Gerry Kasparov dömde ut och som Enceladus-kollektivet hade det dåliga omdömet att citera.

Samuel Charap Named Inaugural Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy at RAND

“Sam's deep expertise in Russia, its neighbors, as well as U.S. policy toward the region aligns perfectly with our ambitious goals for this position,” said RAND President and CEO Jason Matheny. “I'm confident that he will push forward a bold research agenda that helps policymakers better understand the complexities of the region and drives important contributions to U.S. foreign policy.”

At RAND, Charap's research has addressed Russia's challenge to U.S. interests, key trends in the broader region, and recommendations for U.S. policy. Since February 2022, he has published extensively on the implications of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including Avoiding a Long War, a widely read report coauthored by Miranda Priebe, and An Unwinnable War, a commentary originally published in Foreign Affairs.

[...]

The RAND Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy was funded by a gift from the Stand Together Trust.

Det gjorde Kasparov rätt i. Den självutnämnde desinformationsbekämparen Pekka Kallioniemi förklarar varför:

He's also member of the Valdai Discussion Club, a Moscow-based think tank that has been described as a "Russian equivalent to Davos", and Dutch sociologist Van Herpen wrote that the club is a soft power effort by the Kremlin in service of Russian foreign policy goals. 3/18

[...]

Charap has also been a strong opponent of military aid to Ukraine. In Jan 2022, he published an article on Foreign Policy titled "The West's Weapons Won't Make Any Difference to Ukraine". Take a look at the maps below and tell me if you agree with Mr. Charap. 12/18

[...]

All this wouldn't worry me too much if Mr. Charap and his silly talks about negotiations and criticism of military aid were ignored. But they're not. Charap's a regular visitor to the White House's National Security Council (NSC), headed by Jake Sullivan. 15/18

Det ska vidare noteras att Stand Together Trust grundades av Charles Koch.

Davis är associerad med med "tankesmedjan" Defence Priorities", en organisation som är nära knuten till just senator Rand Paul:
https://www.defensepriorities.org/
Allies of Rand Paul, Koch take aim at hawks
En slags modern isolationism alltså, även om den inte nödvändigtvis behöver vara kopplad till beundran för (vad man tror är) Putins samhällsmodell.

Skribenten verkar dock redan vara bekant med bröderna Koch - de som finansierade Defense Priorities (observera den amerikanska stavningen).

Ja, Herre -ar, Enceladus-kollektivets fantasi tryter uppenbarligen, eftersom någon i kollektivet har så gott om tid att vederbörande kan sitta och läsa igenom hela trådar för att, meddelst sin vanliga citatförfalskning hitta material för sina påhopp. Guilt by association, som vanligt. Ett lika vanligt som elakartat debattknep (om man nu kan kalla det som pågår debatt, vilket är tveksamt).

Själv är jag inte påfallande intresserad av varken rabulister eller självutnämnda! Dara Massicot skrev f.ö. denna artikel tillsamman med Kofman och Rob Lee nu i januari: HOLD, BUILD, AND STRIKE: A VISION FOR REBUILDING UKRAINE’S ADVANTAGE IN 2024

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Däremot förefaller det som att de politiska skeenden som kommer att inträffa i år kommer att få avgörande verkan under lång tid framöver. Efterfrågan på populism, högerextremism och fascism verkar vara i tilltagande, inte bara i Slovakien:
Demokratin under attack – och medborgarna är med på tåget (AB)

[Enceladus]

Ja, det är svårt att hitta ord. Några bilder istället:

Trump backs Johnson amid Greene ouster threat: ‘He’s doing a very good job’

Trump’s kind words for Johnson will likely frustrate Greene, who has sharply criticized the Speaker and, with that, been dangling her motion to vacate over the House leader’s head.

[...]

On Ukraine, Trump has frequently expressed his opposition to sending additional aid to Kyiv, even as Johnson has vowed to help the embattled U.S. ally. Last month, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told state television after meeting with Trump that the former president “will not give a penny into the Ukraine-Russia war.”

[...]

Johnson and Trump, however, have had consensus on the idea of sending assistance to Ukraine as a loan. The former president first floated the idea, which Johnson embraced. He mentioned the concept again on Friday.

“We’re looking at it right now,” Trump said when asked if he would support a Ukraine aid bill should Johnson move forward with one. “They’re talking about it and we’re thinking about making it in the form of a loan instead of just a gift.”

Vem kontrollerar vem? Trump verkar i alla fall prioritera sin relation med kreationisten Johnson framför fascisten Greene och landsförrädaren Orban.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Vem kontrollerar vem? Trump verkar i alla fall prioritera sin relation med kreationisten Johnson framför fascisten Greene och landsförrädaren Orban.

Men Donald brukar ju inte gilla högljudda och påstridiga kvinnor.

I övrigt kan man beskylla Viktor Orban för mycket, men "landsförrädare" är knappast något passande epitet.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Dara Massicot skriver ganska bra, trots att hon jobbar på RAND, något som rabulisten Gerry Kasparov dömde ut här: viewtopic.php?p=411572#p411572 och som Enceladus-kollektivet hade det dåliga omdömet att citera.

Samuel Charap Named Inaugural Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy at RAND

“Sam's deep expertise in Russia, its neighbors, as well as U.S. policy toward the region aligns perfectly with our ambitious goals for this position,” said RAND President and CEO Jason Matheny. “I'm confident that he will push forward a bold research agenda that helps policymakers better understand the complexities of the region and drives important contributions to U.S. foreign policy.”

At RAND, Charap's research has addressed Russia's challenge to U.S. interests, key trends in the broader region, and recommendations for U.S. policy. Since February 2022, he has published extensively on the implications of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including Avoiding a Long War, a widely read report coauthored by Miranda Priebe, and An Unwinnable War, a commentary originally published in Foreign Affairs.

[...]

The RAND Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy was funded by a gift from the Stand Together Trust.

Det gjorde Kasparov rätt i.

Trots ovanstående är RAND bannlyst i Ryssland:Russia Outlaws U.S.-Based RAND Corporation as ‘Undesirable’

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Den självutnämnde desinformationsbekämparen Pekka Kallioniemi förklarar varför

Vi kan titta lite mer på den självutnämnde. Han säger sig ha disputerat från Tammerfors Universitet i "the field of human-computer interaction":
https://lv.linkedin.com/in/pekka-kallio ... gle.com%2F

Riktigt vad det är vet jag inte, men man kan inte veta allt. Han har i varje fall skrivit en massa texter, men de ligger långt utanför mitt kunskapsområde och är inget jag orkar sätta mig in i : Pekka Kallioniemi's research while affiliated with Tampere University and other places
(ofta är han förstås medförfattare, men det är vanligt i den vetenskapliga världen - ibland är man det utan att ens veta om det)

Nu beskriver sig Kallioniemi som "chef", dvs. kock, vid Soup Central, som namnet till trots verkar vara ett nätverk som säger sig "fighting disinformation". Namnvalet kan möjligen förstås genom det svenska ordet "soppa" som också kan betyda dimma, tjocka, rök, någonting svårgenomträngligt (motsvarande betydelser finns i engelskan), även om det faktiskt finns sådana som sysslar med mat, också: https://soup-central.square.site/

Problemet med sådan här "motpropaganda" kan, generellt sett, vara att den slår över till att allt som inte passar de egna åsikterna stämplas som ex.vis "rysk propaganda". Ungefär som de ständiga påhoppen från Enceladus-kollektivvet.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

I den Tjeckiska Republiken är man förstås inte glad över att Pellegrini lyckades ta hem presidentvalet i grannlandet Slovakien.
Czech govt. “not very happy” over Pellegrini win in Slovakia


PM Robert Fico, t.v. gratulerar Pellegrini: "Snyggt jobbat"
Fico verkar ha lagt sig till med samma kostvanor som Orban

Ja, med undantag av putinisten Andrej Babiš , som förlorade i det senaste tjeckiska presidentvalet

Pellegrini seemed to really play the fear card in his campaigning and went big on the war in Ukraine, or at least said he was for “peace”. Here in Czechia Andrej Babiš endorsed Pellegrini, as did Zeman.

Zeman är förstås förre presidenten Milos Zeman, som Tjeckiska Republiken äntligen blev av med 2023.

[Enceladus]

Rykten i Financial Times påstår att USA inte vill att Ukraina ska fortsätta sina attacker mot ryska raffinaderier.

Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries deepen tensions with U.S.

Instead of acquiescing to the U.S. requests, however, Ukraine doubled down on the strategy, striking a range of Russian facilities, including an April 2 attack on Russia’s third-largest refinery 800 miles from the font.

The incidents have exacerbated tensions in a strained relationship as Kyiv waits to learn whether Congress will pass a long-stalled $60 billion aid package while Russia’s forces pierce Ukrainian positions across the front lines. The long-range Ukrainian strikes, which have hit more than a dozen refineries since January and disrupted at least 10 percent of Russian oil refinery capacity, come as President Biden ramps up his reelection campaign and global oil prices reach a six-month high.

[...]

Defenders of Ukraine’s strategy accuse the White House of prioritizing domestic politics over Kyiv’s military goals. “It sounds to me that the Biden administration doesn’t want gas prices to go up in an election year,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) told Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during a hearing last week.

[...]

“I’m sorry to spoil the birthday party, but who can believe that the mightiest military alliance in the world cannot find seven batteries of Patriots to provide them to the only country in the world that is fighting ballistic attacks every day?” Kuleba said he told his Western counterparts in an uncharacteristically harsh tone.

[...]

The U.S. positions all stand in contrast to Washington’s allies in Europe, who have barely disguised their pleasure with the Ukrainian campaign. “The Ukrainian people [are] acting in self-defense, and we consider that Russia is the aggressor,” French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné said when asked about the strikes during a news conference with Blinken. “In such circumstances, there is hardly anything else to say. I think you understood me.”

Ingen rök utan eld. Som sagt, USA prioriterar Israel och därefter inrikespolitiken. Det hedrar dock Europa att kontinenten vågar stå upp för det angripna landet.

Hur blev det med Putins besök i Turkiet? Behövs inte spannmålsavtalet längre?

Exclusive: Russia-Ukraine Black Sea shipping deal was almost reached last month, sources say

A deal was reached in March "to ensure the safety of merchant shipping in the Black Sea", and though Ukraine did not want to sign it formally, Kyiv gave its assent for Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to announce it on March 30, the day before critical regional elections, the sources said.

[...]

Under the deal almost announced on March 30, both Moscow and Kyiv would have offered security guarantees to merchant vessels in the Black Sea, committing not to strike or to seize or search them as long as they were either empty or had declared a non-military cargo.

"These guarantees do not apply to warships, civilian vessels carrying military goods (with the exception of maritime transportation agreed upon by the Parties within the framework of international missions)," the draft agreement said.

Intresset för att sluta avtal med Ryssland är begränsat efter landets senaste attacker. Vidare saknar Putin respekt för avtal, och Ukraina klarar sig utan ändå.

Vem kontrollerar vem? Trump verkar i alla fall prioritera sin relation med kreationisten Johnson framför fascisten Greene och landsförrädaren Orban.

Baptists Call on House Speaker Mike Johnson to Stand with Ukraine

Southern Baptist leaders have written to US House Speaker Mike Johnson, a member and former official of their denomination, urging him to support Ukraine in Russia’s war against its Eastern European neighbor.

[...]

Johnson is a former trustee of the ERLC, serving when Land—who also is a former commissioner of the US Commission on International Religious Freedom—was its president.

[...]

“Evangelicals and Baptists are being mistreated in the Russian-occupied territories significantly,” he said. “We’ve lost probably 300 churches. Pastors are really struggling over there, wherever Russians have taken over.”

Som bekant är Mike Johnson en djupt troende sydstatsbaptist. Därför kan kristna kanaler vara ett effektivt sätt att nå fram till talmannen. Är USA ens sekulärt?

Marjorie Taylor Greene Applauds Russia for 'Protecting Christianity'

"Let's talk about what this really is, Steve: This is a war against Christianity," Greene said on Steve Bannon's War Room podcast. "The Ukrainian government is attacking Christians; the Ukrainian government is executing priests. Russia is not doing that; they're not attacking Christianity. As a matter of fact, they seem to be protecting it."

[...]

Troitskiy said Greene's statements can be perceived as appealing to a particular base within the Republican Party, adding that a lack of aid for Ukraine could have which could have dire consequences not just for the invaded nation, but also global security.

[...]

Verstka, an independent online news publication founded on April 26, 2022, by independent Russian journalists, reported last July found that Russia's religious persecution in occupied Ukrainian regions found 43 cases of targeted persecution of clergy and more than 109 acts pressuring churches and religious figures representing Orthodox Christians, Catholics, Protestants, Muslims, and Jehovah's Witnesses.

Fascisten Greene försöker använda samma knep. Enligt uppgift är situationen särskilt prekär för den muslimska ursprungsbefolkningen på ockuperade halvön.

Speaker Mike Johnson to force separate votes on Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan foreign aid bills with another tying TikTok divesture and humanitarian assistance

Speaker Mike Johnson will lead House Republicans in pushing three separate bills this week to send billions to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, DailyMail.com confirmed.

A fourth bill will reportedly include several measures such as requiring TikTok divest from its Chinese-owned parent company, an effort to obtain seized Russian assets, a lend-lease program for military aid to Ukraine and also loans for humanitarian aid.

All four bills would be lumped together under the same 'rule' to advance them to the House floor for final passage this week before going to the Senate.

[...]

Meanwhile a motion to vacate has loomed over Johnson's head since Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene launched the bid to oust him last month. The Georgia Republican is a staunch opponent to Ukraine aid and has already threatened to try to boot Johnson if he brings it to the floor.

But after Johnson met with Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago Friday and said he stands by him, Greene showed no daylight between her and the president.

Det verkar som om Greene har förlorat kampen. Dessutom har Johnson flera gånger försökt få igenom militärt stöd till Israel - utan att lyckas. Nu brådskar det!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Speaker Mike Johnson to force separate votes on Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan foreign aid bills with another tying TikTok divesture and humanitarian assistance

Speaker Mike Johnson will lead House Republicans in pushing three separate bills this week to send billions to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, DailyMail.com confirmed.

A fourth bill will reportedly include several measures such as requiring TikTok divest from its Chinese-owned parent company, an effort to obtain seized Russian assets, a lend-lease program for military aid to Ukraine and also loans for humanitarian aid.

All four bills would be lumped together under the same 'rule' to advance them to the House floor for final passage this week before going to the Senate.

[...]

Meanwhile a motion to vacate has loomed over Johnson's head since Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene launched the bid to oust him last month. The Georgia Republican is a staunch opponent to Ukraine aid and has already threatened to try to boot Johnson if he brings it to the floor.

But after Johnson met with Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago Friday and said he stands by him, Greene showed no daylight between her and the president.

Det verkar som om Greene har förlorat kampen. Dessutom har Johnson flera gånger försökt få igenom militärt stöd till Israel - utan att lyckas. Nu brådskar det!

Det är lätt att spekulera, men svårt att få en uppfattning om vad som händer. Mike Johnson är dessutom en hal typ, där man inte med säkerhet vet vad han har för preferenser. Systemet, där talmannen dessutom är gruppledare är genomruttet.

Vi kan citera slutklämmen i Daily Mail-artikeln istället

The Senate-passed bill included both humanitarian and military aid: $61 billion for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel in its war against Hamas and $4.83 billion to support partners in the Indo-Pacific.

Johnson suggested earlier that he would not be putting the Senate bill on the House floor, adding military-only aid is 'more palatable' to members.

'No American taxpayer should be tasked with propping up the pension system of the nation of Ukraine.'

Any foreign aid bill would likely have to come to the House floor under suspension of the rules, meaning it would need a two-thirds majority vote to pass.

The bill would lose a number of Democrats would oppose further aid to Israel without humanitarian conditions. It would lose a number of Republicans who outright oppose Ukraine aid - potentially jeopardizing its chances of passing.

Frasen "'No American taxpayer should be tasked with propping up the pension system of the nation of Ukraine." säger ju allt.

CNN har en artikel om detta också, men den säger ungefär samma sak: Johnson makes his long-awaited move on Ukraine as House plans to vote on separate aid packages

Och som sagt, The Donald gillar inte högljudda och påstridiga kvinnor, men Greene är inte uträknad än.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det största problemet (för USA) är att det här beteendet alienerar USA:s allierade, av vilka de flesta för anses vara demokratier (skurkstaten finns förvisso här också). USA kan inte bara ha Israel som allierad.

Japan börjar fundera på hållfastheten i USA:s stöd: Support from 'indispensable' US vital for Ukraine's survival, Japan PM tells Congress

(ukrainska Defense Express hakar givetvis på: ​Second Harbinger for USA: Japanese PM at Congress Says Ukraine Situation is a Marker of US Reliability även om detta får ses som en partsinlaga))

Som jag tidigare refererat till skriver även brittiska IISS om detta, utifrån en europeisk horisont: Europe Without America

Europe faces the re-emergence of an old security threat on its borders at the same time that its security guarantor of the past 80 years threatens to disengage.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

IISS har fler analytiska artiklar om detta:

Will America Fail Ukraine?

Even if Joe Biden is re-elected, the Ukraine impasse suggests that may not be enough to salvage US strategic leadership or American democracy.

Ukraine: The Balance of Resources and the Balance of Resolve

The West urgently needs a geo-economic strategy for the war to harness its superiority in resources to its security imperatives.

[Enceladus]

Problemet med sådan här "motpropaganda" kan, generellt sett, vara att den slår över till att allt som inte passar de egna åsikterna stämplas som ex.vis "rysk propaganda". Ungefär som de ständiga påhoppen från Enceladus-kollektivvet.

The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine: A Hidden History of Diplomacy That Came Up Short—but Holds Lessons for Future Negotiations

First, whereas the communiqué and the April 12 draft made clear that guarantor states would decide independently whether to come to Kyiv’s aid in the event of an attack on Ukraine, in the April 15 draft, the Russians attempted to subvert this crucial article by insisting that such action would occur only “on the basis of a decision agreed to by all guarantor states”—giving the likely invader, Russia, a veto. According to a notation on the text, the Ukrainians rejected that amendment, insisting on the original formula, under which all the guarantors had an individual obligation to act and would not have to reach consensus before doing so.

[...]

The size and the structure of the Ukrainian military was also the subject of intense negotiation. As of April 15, the two sides remained quite far apart on the matter. The Ukrainians wanted a peacetime army of 250,000 people; the Russians insisted on a maximum of 85,000, considerably smaller than the standing army Ukraine had before the invasion in 2022. The Ukrainians wanted 800 tanks; the Russians would allow only 342. The difference between the range of missiles was even starker: 280 kilometers, or about 174 miles, (the Ukrainian position), and a mere 40 kilometers, or about 25 miles, (the Russian position).

The talks had deliberately skirted the question of borders and territory. Evidently, the idea was for Putin and Zelensky to decide on those issues at the planned summit. It is easy to imagine that Putin would have insisted on holding all the territory that his forces had already occupied. The question is whether Zelensky could have been convinced to agree to this land grab.

Samuel Charap har slagit till igen. Tydligen är det Ukrainas fel att kriget fortfarande pågår. Är inte detta rysk propaganda?

Det är lätt att spekulera, men svårt att få en uppfattning om vad som händer. Mike Johnson är dessutom en hal typ, där man inte med säkerhet vet vad han har för preferenser. Systemet, där talmannen dessutom är gruppledare är genomruttet.

The Path Ahead for Supplemental Security Assistance

A4: Undoubtedly, Iran’s attacks on Israel increase the sense of urgency for the House to act. Over the weekend, Speaker Johnson said that a security supplemental package would be put on the floor this week. Aid for Israel will garner a large majority of Republican support, while it will likely draw opposition from the progressive left. Conversely, Democrats remain united on Ukraine support, while the Freedom Caucus has been opposed.

If aid to Israel and Ukraine is packaged together, the effort would likely garner the votes to pass the House on suspension. However, Speaker Johnson would undoubtedly face anger, and a possible motion to vacate, from the Freedom Caucus ranks. Given the slim majority, he would be forced to turn to Democrats to save his speakership and, more importantly, save the House from the gridlock that ensued following former speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ousting last fall. Democrats have signaled that they would be willing to consider such a move if the supplemental does not contain any controversial policy riders.

The bottom line is that Iran’s attacks give Johnson a compelling narrative for moving forward on bipartisan legislation and doing so quickly.

Bibis konfrontation med Iran - ivrigt påhejad av Ben-Gvir och Smotrich - spelar Ukraina i händerna. Johnson har inget val: Biden motsätter sig att enbart skicka stöd till Israel. Enligt rykten på sociala medier vill Johnson dessutom finansiera Iron Beam. Ska detta ses som en provokation mot fru "Jewish space lasers"?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Problemet med sådan här "motpropaganda" kan, generellt sett, vara att den slår över till att allt som inte passar de egna åsikterna stämplas som ex.vis "rysk propaganda". Ungefär som de ständiga påhoppen från Enceladus-kollektivvet.

The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine: A Hidden History of Diplomacy That Came Up Short—but Holds Lessons for Future Negotiations

First, whereas the communiqué and the April 12 draft made clear that guarantor states would decide independently whether to come to Kyiv’s aid in the event of an attack on Ukraine, in the April 15 draft, the Russians attempted to subvert this crucial article by insisting that such action would occur only “on the basis of a decision agreed to by all guarantor states”—giving the likely invader, Russia, a veto. According to a notation on the text, the Ukrainians rejected that amendment, insisting on the original formula, under which all the guarantors had an individual obligation to act and would not have to reach consensus before doing so.

[...]

The size and the structure of the Ukrainian military was also the subject of intense negotiation. As of April 15, the two sides remained quite far apart on the matter. The Ukrainians wanted a peacetime army of 250,000 people; the Russians insisted on a maximum of 85,000, considerably smaller than the standing army Ukraine had before the invasion in 2022. The Ukrainians wanted 800 tanks; the Russians would allow only 342. The difference between the range of missiles was even starker: 280 kilometers, or about 174 miles, (the Ukrainian position), and a mere 40 kilometers, or about 25 miles, (the Russian position).

The talks had deliberately skirted the question of borders and territory. Evidently, the idea was for Putin and Zelensky to decide on those issues at the planned summit. It is easy to imagine that Putin would have insisted on holding all the territory that his forces had already occupied. The question is whether Zelensky could have been convinced to agree to this land grab.

Samuel Charap har slagit till igen. Tydligen är det Ukrainas fel att kriget fortfarande pågår. Är inte detta rysk propaganda?

Vem är frågan ställd till?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det är lätt att spekulera, men svårt att få en uppfattning om vad som händer. Mike Johnson är dessutom en hal typ, där man inte med säkerhet vet vad han har för preferenser. Systemet, där talmannen dessutom är gruppledare är genomruttet.

The Path Ahead for Supplemental Security Assistance

A4: Undoubtedly, Iran’s attacks on Israel increase the sense of urgency for the House to act. Over the weekend, Speaker Johnson said that a security supplemental package would be put on the floor this week. Aid for Israel will garner a large majority of Republican support, while it will likely draw opposition from the progressive left. Conversely, Democrats remain united on Ukraine support, while the Freedom Caucus has been opposed.

If aid to Israel and Ukraine is packaged together, the effort would likely garner the votes to pass the House on suspension. However, Speaker Johnson would undoubtedly face anger, and a possible motion to vacate, from the Freedom Caucus ranks. Given the slim majority, he would be forced to turn to Democrats to save his speakership and, more importantly, save the House from the gridlock that ensued following former speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ousting last fall. Democrats have signaled that they would be willing to consider such a move if the supplemental does not contain any controversial policy riders.

The bottom line is that Iran’s attacks give Johnson a compelling narrative for moving forward on bipartisan legislation and doing so quickly.

Bibis konfrontation med Iran - ivrigt påhejad av Ben-Gvir och Smotrich - spelar Ukraina i händerna. Johnson har inget val: Biden motsätter sig att enbart skicka stöd till Israel. Enligt rykten på sociala medier vill Johnson dessutom finansiera Iron Beam. Ska detta ses som en provokation mot fru "Jewish space lasers"?

CSIS brukar skriva bra texter, men den här var väl spekulativ. USA:s Representanthus (inkl. dess talman) är just nu en oöverskådlig, för att inte säga oformlig entitet.

F.ö. övrig så spelar en storkonflikt i mellanöstern inte någon "i händerna". Utom möjligen Netanyahu, förstås:
Jeremy Bowen: Iran's attack on Israel offers Netanyahu a lifeline