Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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$400 Million in Additional Assistance for Ukraine
Department of Defense skrev:With Russia's unrelenting and brutal air attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, additional air defense capabilities are critical. The HAWK missiles, which will be refurbished using Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funds, will complement Spain's recent commitment of HAWK launchers to help Ukraine meet this threat. The Avenger short-range air defense systems will also provide Ukraine with capability to protect Ukrainian troops and critical infrastructure against Unmanned Aerial Systems and helicopters.

In total, the United States has committed more than $19.3 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration. Since 2014, the United States has committed more than $21.4 billion in security assistance to Ukraine and more than $18.6 billion since the beginning of Russia's unprovoked and brutal invasion on February 24.
USA presenterar ännu ett stödpaket till Ukraina med fokus på luftvärn. Vidare får Bidens parti av allt att döma behålla makten i den mäktiga senaten.

South Korea to Sell Arms to U.S. for Ukrainian Forces Fighting Russia
WSJ skrev:South Korea will for the first time sell artillery shells destined for Ukrainian forces through a confidential arms deal between Seoul and Washington, a move that reflects a global scramble for munitions after months of war with Russia.

U.S. officials familiar with the deal said that the U.S. will purchase 100,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition that will be delivered to Ukraine, enough to supply Ukraine’s artillery units for at least several weeks of intensive combat.
Ukraina har världens mest utvecklade länder på sin sida, däribland Sydkorea.

U.S. revokes Russia's market economy status
Reuters skrev:The United States will no longer treat Russia as a market economy country, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, revoking the status granted two decades ago that limited the calculation of anti-dumping duties on Russian goods.

The Commerce Department said its analysis found "extensive" government involvement in the Russian economy had led to distorted prices and costs, which it said did not accurately reflect whether Russian companies were fairly pricing imports into the United States.
USA betraktar inte längre Ryssland som en marknadsekonomi. Därmed begränsas exporten ytterligare. Nästa steg är att klassificera landet som en terrorstat.

Russia on 'irreversible' path to clash with West, France says
EUobserver skrev:But Macron's dovish personal approach to Putin stood in contrast to the hawkish conclusions of the SGDSN, a French state security-policy unit, with some 1,000 staff at its HQ in the historic Hôtel des Invalides in Paris, despite the president's signature on the review's preamble.

The "irreversible" logic of the Strategic Review indicated that any peace deal with the Kremlin would be a temporary ceasefire, prior to further escalation.

If Putin was able to get away with nuclear blackmail in Ukraine, he'd likely do it again in other countries, it warned.
Även Frankrike konstaterar att det inte går att förhandla med Putin.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 10
ISW skrev:ISW does not assess the fighting in Ukraine will halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather, despite faulty Western assumptions.

Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. A ceasefire would provide the Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces.
Förhoppningsvis läser relevanta tjänstemän ISW:s sammanfattningar!
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Ukraine Situation Report: Rumors Swirl Around Bombardment Of Russians Fleeing Kherson
The War Zone skrev:It is beginning to appear that panic might be setting in among Russian forces stuck in Kherson City as Ukrainian forces draw closer and may have already sent special operations forces into that regional capital.

Russian Telegram channels are reporting that Ukraine continues targeting the Dnipro River crossing points and that Ukrainian special operations forces have already entered Kherson City. We likely won't know the extent of what has occurred there, if anything truly has, until morning.
Har Putin beslutat att offra alla mobiliserade ryssar på fel sida av floden Dnipro som kanonföda? Är det samma trupper som förstörde civila fartyg förra veckan?

Ukraine update: Fighting underway as Ukrainian troops enter Kherson. Russia loses its biggest prize
Daily Kos skrev:And now it’s there. Sources on both sides have confirmed that Ukrainian forces have full control of Bilozerka west of Kherson, as well as Chornobaivka on the immediate northern edge of the town. Both of these places have been, in the recent past, areas with high concentrations of Russian forces and equipment.

[...]

Ukrainian forces have been collecting Russian equipment and Russian stragglers along the roads as they moved rapidly toward Kherson and Beryslav. They’ve also engaged with small Russian forces, eliminating them in passing.

However, reports from Russian sources put the remaining Russian force on the west bank of the river at an astounding 20,000. If other reports are accurate, those forces are now mostly concentrated in the area of Beryslav, and near the harbor in the city of Kherson. Fighting is going on in both places. And that fighting is not trivial.
Ukraina avancerar snabbare än ockupanterna hinner fly. MilitaryLand.net har en uppdaterad karta för Cherson. I verkligheten har Ukraina kommit ännu längre.

Kvarvarande ryska soldater uppges ha bytt om till civila kläder och gömt sig (tråd om hur mobiliserade bemöts). Vidare sägs broarna över Dnipro ha förstörts.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Kremlin says Kherson's status as 'part of Russia' unchanged despite retreat
Reuters skrev:The Kremlin said on Friday that Russian forces' withdrawal from Kherson would not change the status of the region, which Moscow has proclaimed part of Russia after moving to annex it from Ukraine.

[...]

"It is a subject of the Russian Federation - it is legally fixed and defined. There are no changes and there can be no changes," Peskov said.

[...]

The conflict "can only be ended after its goals have been achieved - or by achieving those goals through peace negotiations," Peskov said.
De ryska styrkorna har dragit sig tillbaka från Dnipros västra strand och Ukraina är på väg att återta kontrollen. Bland annat har Gammalsvenskby befriats.

Ukraine troops enter centre of Kherson as Russians retreat in chaos
The Guardian skrev:With Ukrainian estimates suggesting half of the Russian soldiers had been withdrawn across the river by Thursday evening, footage posted on Russian social media channels suggested panic in some units as they scrambled to escape.
Ryssar påstås ha flytt i panik och gatorna sägs vara fyllda med döda soldater. Hur kaosartad var den ryska reträtten?

Antonovsky bridge destroyed (photo)
The Odessa Journal skrev:Kherson journalist Konstantin Ryzhenko writes that the bridge was blown up by the Russians with the preliminary mining: “Judging by the nature of the damage, the Russians blew it up. Artillery cannot do this, this is mining.”
Antonivskyjbron är definitivt söndersprängd. Som tidigare sagt finns det rapporter på sociala medier som berättar att alla broar över Dnipro har förstörts.

Losses of Russian Federation are 10 times higher than those of Ukraine, - Zelensky
Censor.NET skrev:Russia suffers huge losses in the war against Ukraine. They are 10 times higher than the losses of the Ukrainian army.

[...]

Zelensky also added that the command of the Russian Federation does not spare soldiers and uses them as "cannon fodder". Therefore, Russian losses are much greater.
USA:s försvarschef uppgav nyligen att båda sidor har lidit ungefär lika stora förluster. Zelenskyj hävdar däremot att de ryska förlusterna är tio gånger större. Förmodligen ligger sanningen någonstans däremellan. Exempelvis har Ryssland cirka 3-4 gånger fler visuellt bekräftade förluster av utrustning än Ukraina.

Top U.S. General Urges Diplomacy in Ukraine While Biden Advisers Resist
The New York Times skrev:Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has made the case in internal meetings that the Ukrainians have achieved about as much as they could reasonably expect on the battlefield before winter sets in and so they should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table, according to officials informed about the discussions.

[...]

General Milley’s judgment is not shared by Mr. Biden or Mr. Sullivan, the officials said. Mr. Putin has shown no willingness to negotiate, they said, and the Ukrainians have been emboldened by their success on the battlefield, making them reluctant to trade away territory at the bargaining table.
Samma försvarschef Milley föreslår att Ukraina ska börja förhandla med Ryssland, vilket ISW precis avrådde från igår. Biden verkar inte dela hans uppfattning.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russians destroy bridges and damage dam: satellite images of Kherson Oblast
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:Satellites of Maxar Technologies company have detected the destruction of crossings and bridges in Kherson Oblast, as well as a dam in Nova Kakhovka.
Satellitbilder visar förstörelsen av alla tre broar över floden Dnipro samt en bro över floden Inhulets.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 7 811 enheter, varav 1 476 stridsvagnar och 48 uråldriga T-62:or. Vem har tiden på sin sida?
Rob Lee skrev:We shouldn't dismiss Ukraine's chances of achieving further gains over the winter. Russia's force is increasingly composed of involuntary soldiers (mobilized, stop-loss, etc.). Bad weather presents challenges but also opportunities for UA units with better discipline and morale.

[...]

Ukraine has an advantage in:
-manpower
-learning lessons
-interior lines
-command and control/leadership
-clearer strategic goals
-precision fires
-morale
-ability to strike behind Russian lines (partisans)
-training volunteers
Many of these will grow over time. I'm optimistic.

Plus Ukraine has momentum and clear strategic objectives, while Russian soldiers are increasingly questioning their leadership. I suspect Ukraine will take more territory over the winter.
Således håller Rob Lee med ISW om att en vapenvila inte ligger i Ukrainas intresse.
Enceladus skrev: tisdag 01 november 2022 6:55 Tyskland har aldrig någonsin tidigare haft lika mycket gas i sina lager som nu. I relativa tal är det fortfarande en bit till rekordet från hösten 2019.
Den 10 november ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,05 procentenheter till 95,39 procent och Tysklands lager med 0,10 procentenheter till 99,71 procent. Nytt rekord!

How to hold Iran accountable for supporting Russia’s war
The Hill skrev:Washington should argue that a “business-as-usual” attitude toward Iranian energy purchases cannot continue. Iran’s energy sales no longer only support a government that is rapidly advancing its nuclear program, supporting militias and terrorist groups, and violently suppressing peaceful protests; they support a government that is providing the means to wage war on European soil. And the connection between oil and arms is not just theoretical. According to the latest Iranian budget, billions of dollars from energy exports are specifically earmarked for Iran’s security and defense institutions.

[...]

Second, depressing Iranian oil exports could drive increased demand for Russian oil, given their similarity in grades. This could undermine Western efforts to cut off a key source of Russian revenue. But this concern likely can be mitigated.
Är det inte uppenbart att den enda hållbara lösningen är att fasa ut användningen av fossila bränslen som olja?
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Banksy unveils Ukraine gymnast mural on building shelled by Russia
BBC skrev:Banksy posted a picture on Instagram of the artwork, a gymnast doing a handstand amid debris, in Borodyanka.

[...]

A second piece in Borodyanka, which has not been confirmed to be by Banksy, depicts a man resembling Vladimir Putin being flipped during a judo match with a young boy. The Russian president is a judo black belt and noted admirer of the martial art.

[...]

The third artwork that appears to be painted by Banksy shows a female rhythmic gymnast, wearing a neck brace, performing with a ribbon on top of a gaping hole in the side of a building in Irpin.
Konstnären Banksy upprätthåller sitt rykte.

‘Dark Ships’ Emerge From the Shadows of the Nord Stream Mystery
WIRED skrev:Once it gathered archive images of the area, SpaceKnow created a series of polygons around the gas leak sites. The smallest of these, around 400 square meters, covered the immediate blast area, and larger areas of interest covered several kilometers. In the weeks leading up to the explosions, SpaceKnow detected 25 ships passing through the region, from “cargo ships to multipurpose larger ships,” Javornicky says. In total, 23 of these vessels had their automatic identification system (AIS) transponders turned on. Two did not have AIS data turned on, and these ships passed the area during the days immediately ahead of the leaks being detected.
Kommer arkitekten bakom sabotaget någonsin att avslöjas?

Occupation ‘government’ of Kherson region announces temporary relocation of regional capital to Henichesk
Novaya Gazeta Europe skrev:The occupation “authorities” of the Kherson region have announced temporary relocation of the regional capital from the city of Kherson to the city of Henichesk, Russia’s state news agency RIA Novosti reports, citing the so-called “press secretary of deputy chair of the regional government” Alexander Fomin.

[...]

On 9 November, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered troops to retreat from the Ukrainian city of Kherson and cross the Dnipro River. Formally, Kherson — the only regional capital that Russia had managed to capture since the beginning of the invasion — was “part of Russia” for 41 days. Sergey Surovikin, commander of Russian troops in Ukraine, said that Russian forces had resumed the offensive “in certain directions”.
Staden Hernitjensk utses till Rysslands "tillfälliga" administrativa centrum för Cherson oblast. Hur länge förblir denna stad en del av Ryssland? Har valet av stad påverkats av Himars? Efter befrielsen av Dnipros västra strand är även staden Armjansk på den ockuperade halvön inom räckhåll. :roll:
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Ukraine Signals It Will Stay on the Offensive, Despite Talk of a Lull
The New York Times skrev:Many analysts and diplomats have talked about the war entering a period of stasis during the cold of winter, with both militaries needing to rebuild. Some leaders — most notably, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, on Thursday — have suggested that a lull in fighting would be a good time for talks.

But the government in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, has been adamant that a stalemate would simply cement Russian gains, suggesting that, even if conditions force Ukraine to slow its offensives, it does not plan to stop them. There has been a chorus of conflicting predictions by military analysts and others, inside and outside Ukraine, about what to expect next, and Ukrainian soldiers often delight in the military command’s ability to obscure its intentions and keep everyone guessing.

[...]

He predicted that full-scale fighting would resume in the spring. Ukraine’s next targets, he said, would most likely be either in the direction of Melitopol in the south or in the east, continuing the offensive that routed Russian forces from the Kharkiv region, to recapture the town of Svatove in the Luhansk region, which has been the focus of fighting for the past month.
Inleder Ukraina en ny motoffensiv redan under vintern? Därom råder delade meningar bland experter. Svatove och Melitopol är möjliga mål.

Occupiers remain on Kinburn spit, combat work continues, - OС "South"
Censor.NET skrev:As for the Kinburn spit, which remains the only occupied territory in the Mykolaiv region, Humeniuk emphasized that combat work is ongoing on this issue.

"The enemy remains there... We continue to advance the enemy. Combat work is currently underway, and if we set the goal of liberating the entire Mykolaiv region, then it will be liberated," she said.
Enligt sociala medier landsätter Ukraina mark- och stödtrupper på Dnipros östra strand genom ett amfibiskt anfall (se karta och video i Twitter-tråden).

The activity of the Russian fleet significantly decreased after the attack on the port in Sevastopol on October 29
TpyxaNews skrev:Currently, there is no enemy ship near the coast, noted military expert H. I. Sutton.
Båda fregatterna av Amiral Grigorovich-klassen Makarov och Essen syns i hamnen. Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 7 858 enheter.

Gas storage facilities in Germany continue to fill up – 99.75 percent
Germany Detail Zero skrev:The largest German gas storage facility in Rehden has a filling level of 94.49 percent (+0.08 percent compared to the previous day). According to the data, on the other hand, there was a significant outflow at the OMV storage facility in Etzel, East Frisia, where almost half a percent less was held than on the previous day. In Austria, the storage level was 94.92 percent nationwide (+0.12 percent), including the Haidach storage facility near Salzburg, which has so far only been connected to the German gas network and is of great importance for Bavaria, with a level of 96.11 percent (+0.01 percent). A storage level of 95.43 (+0.04 percent) is reported across the EU, as the data from Saturday shows.
Gaslagren fortsätter att fyllas på trots att det är andra veckan i november!

Dagens ISW-sammanfattning bekräftar kaoset i den ryska militären:
ISW skrev:The Russian military leadership is trying and failing to integrate ad hoc military formations into a more cohesive fighting force in Ukraine.

[...]

The lack of structure inherent in the combination of DNR forces, LNR forces, Russian contract servicemembers, Russian regional volunteer servicemembers, Russian mobilized servicemembers, and Wagner Group Private Military Company (PMC) forces creates an environment that fosters intra-force conflict. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 12 that tense relations between mobilized soldiers and Chechen volunteer soldiers triggered a brawl in Makiivka that injured three.[20]
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Biden: Ukraine aid will keep flowing, even through a GOP-led House
Defense News skrev:Biden also defended the level of aid sent as sufficient for Ukraine to protect itself against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion without sparking a wider war ― a signal that he’s unlikely to seek to expand that aid.

[...]

According to Daniel Vajdich, a lobbyist who says he’s been in touch with Ukrainian officials, Kyiv expects a GOP-led Congress to boost security aid, but ― given Republican reluctance about economic aid when the last aid package was drafted ― to shrink that pot of funding.
En intressant artikel om framtida stöd från USA. Här är en Twitter-tråd om Bidens inställning till eventuella förhandlingar med Ryssland:
Sullivan skrev:The second is that we believe in a just peace based on the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity that are not things we made up but that are embedded in the U.N. Charter. The G7 leaders spoke to these principles of a just peace, including territorial integrity. President Zelenskyy has spoken to these.

[...]

And one more big-ticket item. So there’s kind of this sense of when is Ukraine going to negotiate. Okay, ultimately, at a 30,000-foot level, Ukraine is the party of peace in this conflict, and Russia is the party of war. Russia invaded Ukraine. If Russia chose to stop fighting in Ukraine and left, it would be the end of the war. If Ukraine chose to stop fighting and give up, it would be the end of Ukraine.
Enligt Ukrainas överbefälhavare Zaluzjnyj ligger krigets tyngdpunkt på Krym. Här är en Twitter-tråd om hur den ockuperade halvön kan belägras:
Trent Telenko skrev:The Siege of Kherson is over.

The Siege of Crimea has begun.

[...]

The Siege of Crimea began before the Siege of Kherson ended, on October 8th 2022.
Kan den ockuperade halvön befrias på samma sätt som Dnipros västra strand? Givetvis måste Ukraina nå Melitopol först.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 7 920 enheter, varav 1 485 stridsvagnar. Igår registrerades första stridsvagnen av typen T-62 Obr. 1967.

Gas storage in Germany almost full – 99.89 percent
Germany Detail Zero skrev:The gas storage facilities in Germany continue to fill up and are now really almost full to the brim. As of Saturday night, the reservoirs were 99.89 percent full, up 0.16 percent from the previous day, according to Sunday night data from the Association of European Gas Infrastructure Operators.
Den 12 november ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,08 procentenheter till 95,51 procent och Tysklands med 0,16 procentenheter till 99,89 procent. Rekordväder!

Från dagens ISW-sammanfattning:
ISW skrev:Wagner Group Financer Yevgeny Prigozhin asked the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office to open a case against St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov for high treason amid viral footage of Wagner forces murdering one of their own.[19] Prigozhin and Russian nationalist milbloggers largely supported the murder of the alleged traitor.[20]
Peskov sade nyligen att Wagnergruppens utomrättsliga avrättningar på rysk mark inte är Rysslands angelägenhet. Har Ryssland blivit en misslyckad stat?
Senast redigerad av Enceladus den tisdag 15 november 2022 4:18, redigerad totalt 1 gånger.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Why Poland may have most to gain from a Russian defeat in Ukraine
The Guardian skrev:If the outcome of the war could be determined by the toss of a coin, the camps would be clear: democracies would want Ukraine to win, autocracies would want it to lose. But real-world political outcomes are not so binary. They typically fall on a spectrum between annihilation and total victory. This leaves the democracies divided into at least three camps: the English-speaking, the western European and the eastern European minus Hungary. What Putin calls the “collective west” all want Ukraine to win. But not necessarily to the same extent.

[...]

American and eastern European interests today seem aligned. There are two looming reasons why they may diverge. First, the US is way more afraid of a repeat of the chaos of the 1991 Soviet Union implosion, and the attendant risks to nuclear security. These security risks are not taken lightly in eastern Europe. But if you already live in an at-risk neighbourhood and there’s the possibility of major improvement, your perspective can be different.

Second, there seems to be a residual hope in the US that, as long as Russia stands on its feet, it can eventually be pivoted towards the west and used against China – in a reverse Kissinger manoeuvre. In eastern Europe, this idea is greeted with horror. It has been tested many times with Putin (too many – if you ask eastern Europeans). The region fears that it could be tried again with Putin’s successor – especially if Russia, in lieu of major reforms, pulls out of a hat someone such as Alexei Navalny, aesthetically acceptable for the west but still wedded to Russia’s role as a great power.
En intressant artikel om möjliga intressekonflikter mellan USA och Östeuropa.

U.S. scrambles to reassure Ukraine after Milley comments on negotiations
POLITICO skrev:The Biden administration is in damage control mode after a top U.S. general said a window for peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow could open this winter, with senior officials scrambling to assure Ukraine it wasn’t undercutting its goal of expelling the Russians.

[...]

“What White House officials are willing to say publicly and what they think privately are not necessarily the same,” said a fourth U.S. official. “Milley is much more willing to just say what he thinks. I’m sure they sometimes wish he wouldn’t always say the quiet part out loud.”
Det verkar även finnas intressekonflikter inom USA.

Biden and Xi clash on Taiwan but find common ground on Ukraine
The Japan Times skrev:Xi and Biden "reiterated their agreement that a nuclear war should never be fought and can never be won and underscored their opposition to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine," the White House statement said.

[...]

"I do not think there’s any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan,” Biden said at a news conference after the meeting. "I absolutely believe there need not be a new Cold War.”

[...]

Lavrov, 72, denied reports that he was receiving treatment at a Bali hospital, telling Tass news agency that he was in his hotel preparing for the summit.
Hur många dagar kvar har Putins inre cirkel på denna jord?

Europe Poised for a Warmer-than-Normal Winter, Copernicus Says
Bloomberg skrev:Europeans have a greater probability of experiencing temperatures significantly higher than normal this winter, potentially offering relief to tight heating-fuel markets, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

[...]

Much of France and Germany also have a 40% to 50% probability of experiencing well-below average precipitation over the next three months. Lack of rain and snowfall could impact inland river transport and hydropower operators, as well as affect the ski season.

[...]

Globally, Copernicus reported with 60% to 70% certainty energy markets across the central and southern US as well as much of China, Japan and Russia will have winter temperatures well above normal -- a signal that long-term global warming trends are impacting economies.
Allt har en baksida. Igår ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,07 procentenheter till 95,55 procent och Tysklands lager med 0,11 procentenheter till 99,96 procent.

Zambia seeks answers from Russia after national dies in Ukraine war -foreign minister
Reuters skrev:Zambia has asked Russia to explain how one of its citizens who had been serving a prison sentence in Moscow ended up on the battlefield in Ukraine, where he was killed, Zambia's foreign affairs minister said on Monday.

[...]

The 23-year-old, who was studying nuclear engineering at a university in Moscow, was convicted and jailed for nine years and six months, according to Kakubo.
Ryssland fortsätter att alienera neutrala länder.

Dagens ISW-sammanfattning nämner Kinburnhalvön för första gången:
ISW skrev:Russian sources widely claimed that Ukrainian troops launched a limited raid and attempted to land on the Kinburn Spit on the night of November 13 and 14. Russian milbloggers reported that Ukrainian landing groups formed in Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, and attempted to land on the Kinburn Spit at Pokrovske, but that Russian forces destroyed the grouping during the ensuing battle.[51] Ukrainian sources did not comment on these claims. Russian milbloggers voiced concerns that this raid is indicative of Ukraine’s ability to land on the left bank of the Dnipro River.[52]
De ryska uppgifterna måste förstås tas med en nypa salt. Något händer i alla fall på andra sidan vattnet.
Användarens profilbild
Odd
Inlägg: 6463
Blev medlem: onsdag 11 september 2002 23:03

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Hur siktar man fel med robotar? Det är ju inte så att man tänder på dem med stubin och hoppas att dom träffar... eller så är det precis så som ryska robotar fungerar?
DN skrev: Ryska robotar har träffat polsk mark – två döda

En högt uppsatt amerikansk underrättelseofficer säger att ryska robotar har korsat in i Natos territorium och dödat två personer, skriver AP.

Explosionen ska ha ägt rum i byn Przewodów i östra Polen nära gränsen till Ukraina. Brandmän är på platsen och säger att det är oklart vad som har inträffat, skriver Sky News.

Den polska radiokanalen Zet uppger att två robotar träffat byn.

Polens premiärminister Mateusz Morawiecki har kallat till krismöte med en regeringskommitté för nationell säkerhet och försvarsfrågor, uppger regeringens talesperson Piotr Mueller som inte omedelbart bekräftat uppgifterna om att ryska robotar ska ha träffat polsk mark. Talespersonen säger att de högsta ledarna håller ett krismöte på grund av en "krissituation", skriver Reuters.

Polska medier uppger att två personer dött på tisdagseftermiddagen efter att en projektil träffat ett torkområde för spannmål.

– Brandmän är på platsen, det är oklart vad som har hänt, säger Lukasz Kucy på en brandkår i närheten enligt Reuters.

Explosionen ska ha inträffat på ett fält utanför staden Przewodów, som ligger knappt tio mil norr om den ukrainska staden Lviv, som angreps av ryska robotar under torsdagseftermiddagen, uppger polska medier enligt TT.
Nu kommer ju varken Polen eller NATO göra något mer åt det än att aja-baja ryssarna, men vad skulle hända om situationen skulle varit tvärtom, att något land skulle råka träffa ryskt territorium på samma sätt?

Edit: Det cirkulerar många uppgifter just nu. Enligt några av dem så kan det mycket väl vara ukrainskt robotförsvar som orsakat kraschen. Det kommer nog i vilket fall inte att anses vara ett medvetet anfall mot NATO.
DN skrev: USA:s president Joe Biden anser att det är ”osannolikt” att roboten som dödat två personer i Polen avfyrats från Ryssland.

– Det finns preliminär information som motsäger det, säger han.

Enligt obekräftade uppgifter till AP avfyrades roboten av ukrainskt luftvärn.
Genius on call
Enceladus
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Odd skrev: tisdag 15 november 2022 20:16 Nu kommer ju varken Polen eller NATO göra något mer åt det än att aja-baja ryssarna, men vad skulle hända om situationen skulle varit tvärtom, att något land skulle råka träffa ryskt territorium på samma sätt?
Polen är förmodligen världens mest Rysslandskritiska land och har val nästa år. Räkna med en respons.

CNN Exclusive: US intelligence suggests Russia put off announcing Kherson retreat until after midterm elections
CNN skrev:The US has intelligence that Russia may have delayed announcing its withdrawal from the Ukrainian city of Kherson in part to avoid giving the Biden administration a political win ahead of the midterm elections, according to four people familiar with the intelligence.
Politiken har tydligen företräde framför militära överväganden.

Russia and Ukraine close in on grain deal extension
Financial Times skrev:In exchange for extending the deal, Russia will be able to use a pipeline that transports ammonia through Ukrainian-controlled territory before reaching a port near Odesa.

The pipeline, which carried about 2.3mn tonnes of ammonia before the invasion, could give Moscow an additional $2.4bn in export revenue at a time when western sanctions have hampered its ability to sell its own grain and fertiliser.
Ryssland behöver såväl pengar som ett gott anseende.

Tyska gasreserven fylld till 100 procent
Di skrev:Tyska energimyndigheter Bundesnetzagentur noterar i sin marknadsuppdatering att lagren är fyllda. Trots detta kan det fysiskt fortfarande tas emot mer naturgas i vissa tyska lager, för att stärka bufferten inför vintern, enligt myndigheten.

Beskedet om de helt fyllda gaslagren kommer dessutom samma dag som Tyskland inviger en ny flytande LNG-terminal i Wilhelmshaven, som ses som en viktig anläggning för att långsiktigt ersätta det stora beroendet av fossil rysk gas via ledningar som Tyskland har byggt upp.
Aldrig någonsin tidigare har Tyskland haft lika fulla gaslager, både relativt och absolut!

Oil flows on Druzhba pipeline suspended in parts of Eastern Europe
Reuters skrev:Oil supply to parts of Eastern and Central Europe via a section of the Druzhba pipeline has been temporarily suspended, according to oil pipeline operators in Hungary and Slovakia.

[...]

Hungary's MOL (MOLB.BU) said its Ukrainian partner told the company that a Russian rocket hit a power station close to the Belarus border that provides electricity for a pump station, and this led to the stoppage. Slovakia's Transpetrol confirmed the suspension as well, citing "technical reasons on the Ukrainian side" but did not specify a rocket strike.
Kustlösa länder som Ungern och Slovakien behöver se över sitt ryska energiberoende, speciellt när mellanliggande länder befinner sig i krig med Ryssland.

US studying how to modify powerful armed drone as Ukrainian demand grows
CNN skrev:As Russian forces have retreated in Ukraine’s south, the Biden administration has announced a slew of new military aid packages for Ukraine, but all were missing a piece of weaponry that Ukraine’s military has long sought: the multi-use Gray Eagle drone, armed with Hellfire missiles.

According to two officials, the US has been looking into modifications that can be made to the deadly drone. Changes that would make the potential of losing any – with their sensitive onboard technology – less of a danger and possibly increase the likelihood of Ukraine receiving them.
Har inte USA redan förlorat en sådan drönare i Irak?
Senast redigerad av Enceladus den tisdag 15 november 2022 23:42, redigerad totalt 1 gånger.
Lennart Petersen
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Har sett en uppgift att det tyska gaslagret är dimensionerat för att räcka för 2 månaders förbrukning
Stämmer det ?
Enceladus
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Lennart Petersen skrev: tisdag 15 november 2022 23:40 Har sett en uppgift att det tyska gaslagret är dimensionerat för att räcka för 2 månaders förbrukning
Stämmer det ?
Ja, men gasförbrukningen är mycket väderberoende. Två vintermånader är inte samma sak som två sommarmånader. Hösten har också varit rekordvarm.

Russia Falls into Recession
The Moscow Times skrev:Russia's economy has entered a recession as gross domestic output fell by 4% in the third quarter, according to first estimates published Wednesday by the national statistics agency, Rosstat.

The drop in GDP follows a similar 4% contraction in the second quarter, as Western sanctions pummel Russia's economy following Moscow's offensive in Ukraine.
Samtidigt fortsätter Tysklands ekonomi att växa. Vem är egentligen beroende av vem?

Russia’s Road to Economic Ruin
Foreign Affairs skrev:No matter the outcome, however, Russia will emerge from the war with its government exercising authority over the private sector to an extent that is unprecedented anywhere in the world aside from Cuba and North Korea. The Russian government will be omnipresent yet simultaneously not strong enough to protect businesses from mafia groups consisting of demobilized soldiers armed with weapons they acquired during the war. Particularly at first, they will target the most profitable enterprises, both at the national and local level.

For the Russian economy to grow, it will need not only major institutional reforms but also the kind of clean slate that Russia was left with in 1991. The collapse of the Soviet state made institutions of that era irrelevant. A long and painful process of building new institutions, increasing state capacity, and reducing corruption followed—until Putin came to power and eventually dismantled market institutions and built his own system of patronage. The lesson is grim: even if Putin loses power and a successor ushers in significant reforms, it will take at least a decade for Russia to return to the levels of private-sector production and quality of life the country experienced just a year ago. Such are the consequences of a disastrous, misguided war.
Putin leder Ryssland mot ekonomisk ruin. Han har i alla fall lyckats skapa sin önskade maffiastat.

Tre personer fälls för nedskjutningen 2014 av MH17
DN skrev:De som döms till livstids fängelse för mord är:

Igor ”Strelkov” Girkin, före detta överste i den ryska säkerhetstjänsten FSB och 2014 ledare för separatisterna i östra Ukraina. Numera känd som rysknationalistisk militärbloggare.

Sergej Dubinskij, som tillhörde ryska militära underrättelsetjänsten GRU och ledde underrättelseverksamheten i den så kallade Donetskrepubliken.

Leonid Chartjenko, ukrainska medborgare, som arbetade för separatisternas underrättelsetjänst i Donetsk.

[...]

Hon är övertygad om att dagens krig i Ukraina hade kunnat undvikas om omvärlden reagerat kraftigare 2014.

– Putin har aldrig blivit stoppad och har fortfarande inte stoppats. Han kommer inte att sluta förrän han stoppats. Jag hoppas världen vaknar upp nu, för vi visste detta redan för åtta år sedan, säger hon.
Namnet Girkin borde vara välbekant vid det här laget.

Szijjarto: Hungary, Iran working on developing economic cooperation
The Budapest Times skrev:Hungary and Iran are working on developing economic cooperation in line with the policy of common sense and a pragmatism, and this could contribute to Tehran returning to a peaceful coexistence in the international community, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Thursday.
Ungern har dessvärre en tradition av att stå på fel sida av historien.

Under U.S. Pressure, Israel Funded ‘Strategic Materials’ for Ukraine
Haaretz skrev:The Americans wanted Israel to supply Ukraine with anti-aircraft batteries, the European officials said. However, after talks between the two governments and deliberations by Israel’s leaders and the security establishment, it was agreed instead to fund the strategic materials.

[...]

In addition, Haaretz has learned that the Defense Ministry recently eased its guidelines and agreed that NATO members such as the United Kingdom could supply Ukraine with weapons systems containing Israeli components like electro-optical and fire-control systems.

[...]

Israel asked all the parties involved in the strategic materials deal not to publicly reveal it, in order not to anger Putin.
Israel gör mycket i det fördolda, men det är svårt att dölja allt.
Lennart Petersen
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Ryssland lyckades uppenbarligen ösa iväg en drös precisionsrobotar mot civila mål på en enda dag.
Enligt uppgift var dom värda cirka 18 miljarder SEK. Att jämföra med Rysslands BNP som är runt 48miljarder/dag.
Hur ska man ha råd med sådana fyrverkerier varje dag som om det vore nyårsafton varje dag. 80% rapporteras dessutom ha blivit eliminerade av Ulrainskt luftvärn.
Många verkar tro att Ryssland är en ekonomisk stormakt, ungefär Sovjet 2.0 men i själva verket är Rysslands BNP något över Spanien men spanjorerna är ju färre att dela på kakan. Och dom slösar inte heller sina pengar på att bomba Portugal...
Enceladus
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Ukraine’s Maritime Drone Strikes Again: Reports Indicate Attack On Novorossiysk
Naval News skrev:Ukraine’s maritime drones can now reach a Russian Navy base until now regarded as safe. When the drones (USVs) were used to attack Sevastopol on October 29 they resulted in a major shift in Russian Navy operations. The threat is regarded as so serious that new defenses were added in Sevastopol. And the Russian Navy, which early in the war dominated the Black Sea, barely leaves port. Now this threat has reached another major Russian Navy base at Novorossiysk.
Ukrainas mystiska havsdrönare har tydligen en lång räckvidd. Håller Ryssland på att tappa kontrollen över Svarta havet? Vidare finns uppgifter om ukrainska drönarattacker mot städerna Dzjankoj och Feodosija på den ockuperade halvön. Den senare ligger flera hundra kilometer bakom den nuvarande frontlinjen!

Russia fired cruise missile with dummy nuclear warhead, indicating shortage of weapons
The New Voice of Ukraine skrev:Russia is launching cruise missiles with dummy nuclear warheads at Ukraine – evidence that the enemy’s stockpile of cruise missiles is running so low that it is dipping into its strategic reserves, Ukrainian military analysts Defense Express wrote on Nov. 17.

[...]

“Simply put, for this strike, the orcs (Russians) took at least one Kh-55 from their ‘nuclear arsenal’, ‘unscrewed’ the nuclear warhead from this missile and replaced it with an empty ‘block’, and then fired it at Ukraine,” the experts said.

[...]

Defense Express, citing its own sources, reported that during the attack on Nov. 15, a Russian Kh-101 that was manufactured in the third quarter of 2022 was shot down. Given that usually older missiles are fired before newer ones, this may also indicate Russian stocks of missiles are extremely low.
Det finns flera tecken på att de ryska missilerna äntligen tryter. Det sägs också på sociala medier att Ryssland även börjar få slut på ammunition. Vidare uppgår antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster till 8 022 enheter, varav 1 499 stridsvagnar och 53 uråldriga T-62:or. Ryssland håller onekligen på att nötas ut.

Iranian protesters set fire to Ayatollah Khomeini's house
BBC skrev:Khomeini was the leader of Iran's Islamic revolution in 1979, which deposed the country's pro-Western leader, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and ushered in the theocratic state that still exists today.

[...]

Five members of the security forces were killed in the latest unrest on Thursday, according to Iranian state media.
En symbolisk attack mot den islamiska republiken själv. Gårdagens ISW-sammanfattning bekräftar att protesterna eskalerar i Iran:
ISW skrev:The Mashhad Neighborhood Youth, for instance, published statements on November 16 and 17 calling on protesters to cooperate with one another to wage partisan warfare, block roads, and use explosives against security forces, among other activities, and referred to its “operational teams,” implying some level of organization.[2] The group advised protesters to wear protective clothing “according to previous training.”[3]

[...]

Protesters have coordinated extensively in certain locations in recent weeks using militant tactics to respond to the regime crackdown.[5] Protesters are furthermore developing the infrastructure necessary to stage a protracted struggle against the regime, such as establishing an informal medical care network.[6]
Skillnaden mellan protesterna i Iran och Ryssland är slående. Det moderna Ryssland bygger uppenbarligen på likgiltighet och apati.
Lennart Petersen
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Enceladus skrev: lördag 19 november 2022 4:53 [ur

Skillnaden mellan protesterna i Iran och Ryssland är slående. Det moderna Ryssland bygger uppenbarligen på likgiltighet och apati.
Eller rädsla, många sitter ju uppenbart fängslade för protester. Straffet för att benämna specialoperationen som krig har angetts till 3-15år, 3 för privatperson och upp till 15 för den som företräder en organisation.
Sedan är det rätt vanligt vid en konflikt att många tar ställning för sitt eget land. Det är vanligt i en diktatur i knipa att man helt enkelt arrangerar en utrikes konflikt för att skifta focus.
Sen tyder mycket från de mätningar som faktiskt görs att stödet för Putin sjunker vartefter, visserligen i en långsam takt och samtidigt är det allt fler som är missnöjda . Anna Lena Lauren som är DN reporter i St Peterburg säger att det är allt fler som sådär mellan skål och vägg medger sitt missnöje.
Som missnöjda får nog också räknas de ca 700 000 , många högutbildade, som lämnat Ryssland på olika vägar.
BNP prognosen för Ryssland och 2022 pekade på tillväxt +5% vilket nu ändrats till ett troligt tapp på -5%
Och när det verkligen börjar synas och kännas för den bortskämda medel och överklassen så kan det bli oro och protester av sällan skådad nivå.
Enceladus
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Iran will help Russia build drones for Ukraine war, Western officials say
The Washington Post skrev:The agreement, if fully realized, would represent a further deepening of a Russia-Iran alliance that already has provided crucial support for Moscow’s faltering military campaign in Ukraine, the officials said. By acquiring its own assembly line, Russia could dramatically increase its stockpile of relatively inexpensive but highly destructive weapons systems that, in recent weeks, have changed the character of the Ukraine war.
Ryssland och Iran fördjupar sitt militära samarbete ytterligare. Storbritanniens senaste stödpaket med luftvärn mot iranska drönare kan komma till nytta.

‘We’ve lost the real war’: How Russian elites feel about Moscow’s retreat from Kherson
Meduza skrev:The mood in the Putin administration’s political bloc is slightly more optimistic. According to one of Meduza’s sources, the Kremlin is still hoping that the West’s “consensus in support of Ukraine will collapse” due to its need for cheap energy.

[...]

The source also noted that the members of the Russian elite who “aren’t completely going along with the special [military] operation” are looking wiser and wiser. As Meduza has previously reported, a number of Russian officials have opted for obeying war-related orders from their superiors while at the same time refraining from making militarist speeches. Meduza’s sources named Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin as two examples.

Nonetheless, Meduza’s sources maintained that despite the widespread discontent surrounding the war, Russian officials and businessmen have no intention of taking any measures against Putin himself. “We just want all of this to be over as soon as possible,” one said.
Rysslands styrande klass tror fortfarande att västvärlden viker sig först, men pessimismen ökar i takt med att verkligheten kommer ikapp. Vidare stödjer affärseliten alltjämt Putin. Däremot växer teknokrater som Misjustin och Sobjanin i styrka.

The Bell releases the name of the creator of Telegram channel Rybar
Meduza skrev:As the Bell revealed, Zvinchuk was born in 1991 in Vladivostok, served in the army, and then studied to become an Arabic translator at the Military University of the Ministry of Defense in Moscow. After graduating, he worked at the Defense Ministry in the department of information and mass communications until at least August 2017, and left “because of difficult working conditions and poor pay.”
Identiteten på den mystiska militärbloggaren Rybar har avslöjats. Kan detta få konsekvenser för krigsrapporteringen?

Gas station explodes, catches fire outside of St. Petersburg
Meduza skrev:A large explosion, followed by a fire, occurred not far from the north-east limit of St. Petersburg. Witnesses have posted photos and videos to social media.

Authorities in the Leningrad region say the explosion happened in a filling station in the Vsevolozhsky District, near the village of Berngardovka.
Orsaken till explosionen är ännu inte känd...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19
ISW skrev:The number of Russian prisoners appears to have dropped by about 6.5% since January of 2022 likely due to intensive Wagner Group recruitment.
Ryssland använder sig av en mänsklig våg med frisläppta fångar.
Enceladus
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Lennart Petersen skrev: lördag 19 november 2022 1:13 Många verkar tro att Ryssland är en ekonomisk stormakt, ungefär Sovjet 2.0 men i själva verket är Rysslands BNP något över Spanien men spanjorerna är ju färre att dela på kakan. Och dom slösar inte heller sina pengar på att bomba Portugal...
It’s Costing Peanuts for the US to Defeat Russia
CEPA skrev:The Ukrainian armed forces have already killed or wounded upwards of 100,000 Russian troops, half its original fighting force; there have been almost 8,000 confirmed losses of armored vehicles including thousands of tanks, thousands of APCs, artillery pieces, hundreds of fixed and rotary wing aircraft, and numerous naval vessels. US spending of 5.6% of its defense budget to destroy nearly half of Russia’s conventional military capability seems like an absolutely incredible investment. If we divide out the US defense budget to the threats it faces, Russia would perhaps be of the order of $100bn-150bn in spend-to-threat. So spending just $40bn a year, erodes a threat value of $100-150bn, a two-to-three time return.

[...]

Meanwhile, replacing destroyed kit, and keeping up with the new arms race that it has now triggered with the West will surely end up bankrupting the Russian economy; especially an economy subject to aggressive Western sanctions. How can Russia possibly hope to win an arms race when the combined GDP of the West is $40 trillion, and its defense spending amounting to 2% of GDP totals well in excess of $1 trillion when the disproportionate US defense contribution is considered? Russia’s total GDP is only $1.8 trillion. Vladimir Putin will have to divert spending from consumption to defense, risking social and political unrest over the medium term, and a real and soon-to-be present danger to his regime. Just imagine how much more of a bargain Western military aid will be if it ultimately brings positive regime change in Russia.
Ryssland är definitivt ingen ekonomisk stormakt! De visuellt bekräftade ryska förlusterna motsvarar 40 procent av alla stridsvagnar i aktiv tjänst. Vidare har landet förlorat minst 147 stridsvagnar i reserv. Bristen på fungerande stridsvagnar är så stor att mobiliserade måste träna med prototyper av T-14 Armata!

Fire! As Russians set fire to draft offices, we map the arson attacks
Mediazona skrev:The first six months of the war had seen dozens of arson cases. By the end of summer, they practically disappeared from the news, only to be rekindled after September 21, when Vladimir Putin announced the ‘partial mobilisation’. As of November 2, we know of 75 cases (34 before the mobilisation was announced, and 41 after). Not surprisingly, 52 arsonists picked Ministry of Defense buildings: draft and recruitment registration offices.
Den ryska befolkningens tålamod är inte heller oändligt.

Russian Federation increased military spending for 2023 by more than 40% compared to previously planned, - British intelligence
Censor.NET skrev:As noted in the summary, on November 16, 2022, Russia conducted the largest bond issue in history in one day, raising 820 billion rubles ($13.6 billion). This is important for Russia, as debt issuance is a key mechanism for supporting defense spending, which has increased significantly since the invasion of Ukraine.
Vem vill investera i ett land vars biltillverkning har rasat med 90 procent på bara ett år? :roll:
Enceladus
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Ukrainian military receives Turkish TRLG-230 precision-guided missiles – Oryx
Militarnyi skrev:TRLG-230 is a surface-to-surface missile. It can be launched from the ROKETSAN MCL (Multi-Caliber Launcher) artillery system and other platforms with compatible interfaces.

During the demonstration of the missile sample in August 2020, the target designation was carried out by the Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicle.
Enligt artikeln har de turkiska missilerna en räckvidd på 70 km, ungefär som amerikanska GMLRS. I år har Turkiet utvecklat en ny variant med en räckvidd på 150 km, ungefär som amerikanska GMLRS-ER. Det spekuleras på sociala medier om Ukraina har fått den senare. Här sägs en turkisk missil avfyras i Ukraina.

Putin was offered "peace deal" framework before G20 meeting
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:"On the eve of the G20 summit, according to Ukrainska Pravda sources in the circles of the US secret services, Putin received the framework for a possible ‘deal’ from one of the intermediary countries.

In short, the essence of the proposal was that the occupied and already annexed territories in the south and east of the country would return to Ukraine, including Donbas. But the issue of Crimea would be taken off the table. For Russia, this is fundamental to the so-called ‘Putin legacy’. Therefore the deal envisaged a freeze on any talk about the status of the peninsula for seven years. Also on any talk of Ukraine joining NATO."

[...]

However, after the Russians launched a massive missile strike on Ukraine while the summit was actually going on, the proposal became irrelevant.
Det ryktas på sociala medier om att det ovan nämnda fredsförslaget framfördes av Erdogan. I så fall har Turkiet ännu fler skäl att leverera missiler till Ukraina.

US, Russia Urge Turkey to De-Escalate Fighting in Syria
Bloomberg skrev:Turkey over the weekend started an aerial attack on the Kurdish militia it holds responsible for a deadly bomb attack in Istanbul last week. The army may also launch a cross-border offensive to seal the border, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Monday, accusing the US and Russia of not fulfilling their promises to force the militants to withdraw from the Turkish border as mandated under deals reached in 2019.

[...]

Erdogan’s threat of a new assault may help him consolidate nationalist support ahead of elections next year, but if he follows through, would put him further at odds with Washington, which backs the Kurds in its fight against Islamic State. Russia, meanwhile, has been trying for years to help President Bashar al-Assad regain control of Syria.
Turkiet går snart till val, och Erdogan måste ha något att visa upp. Därmed ökar risken för intressekonflikter mellan Ankara, Washington och Moskva i Syrien.
Enceladus
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Dissecting Iranian drones employed by Russia in Ukraine
Conflict Armament Research skrev:CAR reached the conclusion that the UAVs documented in Ukraine are of Iranian origin based on visual comparison of six different physical features (cabling, labelling, airframe structure, servo motors, part and serial numbering, and mechanical gyroscopes) of the Shahed-131, Shahed-136, and Mohajer-6 UAVs documented in November 2022 in Ukraine, with four other Iranian UAV models that CAR documented in the Middle East between 2017 and 2022: a Shahed-141 UAV, a Shahed-197 UAV, and Qasef-1 and Sammad-pattern UAVs. The similarities in components across these systems strongly suggest that these UAVs share a common manufacturing origin in Iran.
Egenskaperna hos de iranska drönarna verkar komma till allmän kännedom.

Israel may transfer high-precision ballistic missiles to Ukraine if the Russian Federation receives Iranian ones – mass media
Militarnyi skrev:Israel has protested against Russia’s use of Iranian drones in the war against Ukraine. Israel has also warned the Russian Federation that in case of receiving Iranian ballistic missiles, high-precision missiles may also appear in Ukraine.
Israel tolererar inte längre det militära samarbetet mellan Ryssland och Iran.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22
ISW skrev:The Russian military has significantly depleted its arsenal of high-precision missiles but will likely still be able to attack Ukrainian critical infrastructure at scale in the near term. Ukrainian Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov released figures on November 22 detailing that the Russian military has only 119 Iskanders missiles, 13 percent of its initial February 2022 arsenal.[12] Reznikov’s figures also show that Russian forces have significantly depleted other key high-precision weapons systems with only 229 Kalibr missiles (45 percent of the initial February 2022 stock), 150 Kh-155 missiles (50 percent of the initial February 2022 stock), and 120 Kh-22/32 missiles (32 percent of the initial February 2022 stock) remaining. Reznikov’s figures show that Russian forces have substantially depleted stocks of 3M-55 “Onyx”, S-300, Kh-101, Kh-35, and Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles as well.[13]

[...]

The Russian military is likely experiencing problems in replenishing its arsenal of high-precision weapons systems. Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yuriy Ignat stated on November 21 that Russia is experiencing problems with the supply of Iranian missiles to the Russian Federation.[17] Ignat speculated that diplomatic resources, negotiations, or other countries’ influence may have impacted Iran’s ability or willingness to supply Russia with ballistic missiles.[18] ISW has previously assessed that Russia is increasingly dependent on Iran for the provision of high-precision weapons systems.[19] Ignat also reported that Russia lacks the necessary components produced abroad to support the manufacturing of the number of missiles it needs for its campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.[20] Reznikov stated that Russia manufactured 120 Kalibr and Kh-101 missiles and 360 Kh-35 missiles since February 2022, allowing the Russian military to partially offset the heavy use of these weapons systems in massive strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.[21] Russia likely significantly strained the existing capacity of its military industry in producing these missiles.
ISW bekräftar att Ryssland har problem med att införskaffa missiler från Iran. Samtidigt tryter de ryska missilerna.

Ukraine Strikes at Sevastopol and Pushes to Reclaim Key Black Sea Peninsula
WSJ skrev:Russian officials said that Ukrainian forces launched a drone attack on the key port city of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea, which hosts the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Five drones were shot down, the city’s governor, Mikhail Razvozhaev, said on his Telegram channel on Tuesday evening. The first two drones tried to attack the nearby Balaclava thermal power plant, but no damage was inflicted on any infrastructure, he said.

[...]

Ukrainian forces have also begun an assault on the Kinburn Spit, a strip of land jutting into the sea south of Mykolaiv that has been occupied for months by Russian forces cutting off access to the port city.

“For now, this military operation is in silent mode,” said a spokeswoman for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command on Ukrainian television late Monday. She didn’t say when the operation had started but said stormy weather provided an advantage for Ukrainian forces in the area.
Ukraina trappar upp initiativet vid den södra fronten. Har Ukraina lyckats kopiera de iranska drönarna?

U.S. Should Give Ukraine Armed Drones, Senators Urge Biden Administration
WSJ skrev:In the past few weeks of the nearly nine-month-long war, Iran has provided Russia with drones that have been pummeling Ukrainian population centers and civilian infrastructure, and which legislators said gave Russia a battlefield advantage. The Ukrainians should have a U.S.-supplied arsenal to counter what Russia has received, they said.

[...]

Training Ukrainians on the MQ-1C, which are made by General Atomics, would take 27 days, the senators wrote. And if Ukraine had access to its own drones it “could find and attack Russian warships in the Black Sea, breaking its coercive blockade and alleviate dual pressures on the Ukrainian economy and global food prices.”
Senatorer från USA:s båda partier vill även se amerikanska drönare på slagfältet.
Enceladus
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Gazprom may cut gas flows to Europe; Russia faces slump in GDP in 2023
Daily Maverick skrev:Russia’s Gazprom suggested it may cut gas flows to Europe next week via its only remaining route in Ukraine, the latest blow to the continent’s supply crunch. Russia is poised for a 5.6% slump in gross domestic product in 2023 after a 3.9% contraction this year, forecasts say.

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The US is sending $4.5-billion in aid to the government of Ukraine to bolster economic stability and support core government services, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement.

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Russia’s oil-export volumes will depend on price and marketing efforts, a senior central bank official said, two weeks before Europe and the Group of Seven unleash fresh sanctions on the nation’s crude.
Enligt OECD blir det kanske inte någon recession inom euroområdet. Nästa år väntas ekonomin öka med 0,5 procent. Samtidigt kraschar Rysslands ekonomi.

EU gives Ukraine another 2.5 billion euros for reconstruction
The Kyiv Independent skrev:European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Nov. 22 that the bloc has disbursed another 2.5 billion euros for Ukraine's reconstruction.

Accordfing to the official, the EU plans to provide a total of 18 billion euros to Ukraine in 2023.

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“We will keep on supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes,” she added.
Till skillnad från Ryssland får Ukraina hjälp med sin ekonomi.

Ukraine and the Future of Offensive Maneuver
War on the Rocks skrev:First, offensive maneuver is apparently far from dead. Even in the face of modern weapons, breakthrough is still possible, and especially so when astute offensive operations on interior lines pose dilemmas for thinly stretched defenses like those of the Russians in Kherson and Kharkiv since mid-summer. Those offensives would have been even more successful with improved Ukrainian training and equipment, but Ukraine’s ability to succeed with what they have is a powerful demonstration that offensive maneuver has not been rendered impossible by new technology.

But second, while offensive breakthrough is still possible under the right conditions, it remains very hard to accomplish against deep, prepared defenses with adequate supplies and operational reserves behind them. This is not a novel feature of new technology — it is an enduring consequence of the post-1900 lethality of ever-evolving weapons that has been observed repeatedly over more than a century of combat experience. Exposed defenders are increasingly vulnerable to long-range weapons and sensors, but covered and concealed positions remain highly resistant to precision engagement. Shallow, forward defenses can be ruptured with well-organized combined arms attacks, but deep defenses with meaningful reserves behind them still pose much harder problems for attackers. Overextended positions without secure supply lines can be overwhelmed, but consolidated positions with viable logistical support are still much harder and more costly to overcome.

Third, neither shallow, vulnerable defenses nor deep, robust ones are universal features of modern war. Both have occurred regularly since 1900, and both have occurred, at various times and places, in Ukraine since February.
Både Kofman och Massicot har kommenterat ovanstående artikel i positiva ordalag.
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