Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: onsdag 17 maj 2023 12:12 Mycket rykten här. Artikeln i The WarZone (som Enceladus-kollektivet förefaller att inte ens ha läst) handlar väl mest om att förbättra befintliga vapensystem. Ryssland behöver f.ö. inte kärnvapenkapprusta, man har redan nu mer än tillräcklig kapacitet, även om Enceladus-kollektivet försökt vifta bort den med floskler som "svart magi".
The WarZone skrev:Together with corresponding developments in hypersonic weapons, including those that are delivered by other ICBMs, Russia certainly appears to be making concerted efforts to bolster its nuclear deterrence posture.

This is before taking into account the sobering reality that the current U.S. ballistic missile defense shield by itself is not enough to protect against an all-out Russian nuclear strike. Even the current Russian arsenal is more than capable of overwhelming the ballistic missile defenses of any other nation.
Men vem vet, The WarZone kanske är "rysk propaganda", den också.

"Ryssland kan möjligen hjälpa någon av parterna - troligen den som betalar bäst" är ju bara struntprat.
Den av skribenten länkade artikeln berör just hypersoniska vapen, varför jag ansåg det vara lämpligt att nämna Rysslands behandling av relevanta forskare.

Russia tries to conceal its dwindling nuclear stockpile
The Kyiv Independent skrev:Older delivery systems and warheads produced decades ago are naturally running out of their operational lifetime. And today's production of new missiles, strategic bombers, or nuclear-carrying submarine systems is not strong enough to compensate for the reduction.

According to experts, the decommissioning of Russian nuclear weapons started and will continue until at least the 2030s. But admitting this decline is impossible for the Kremlin, which puts nuclear weapons at the center of its intimidation efforts and war propaganda, both domestic and international.

[...]

Presented with the Kremlin's traditionally excessive pomposity, the Sarmat missiles had only two test launches, the latest ending in failure in late February 2023 around the time President Joe Biden was in Kyiv, according to the Pentagon.
För övrigt finns det många frågetecken kring Rysslands kapacitet.

Russia denounces Macron for saying Moscow is becoming a Chinese 'vassal'
NBC News skrev:Russian officials on Monday denounced comments by French President Emmanuel Macron that Moscow was becoming subservient to China, saying Western countries must get used to a world underpinned by the Kremlin’s close ties with Beijing.
Däremot kan Ryssland förstås bidra till Kinas upp­rustning. Ja, även Arktis börjar bli en del av Kinas intressesfär (se Bloombergs tidigare artikel):
Bloomberg skrev:Changes in Russia’s latest Arctic strategy, as outlined in a foreign policy document signed by Putin on March 31, remove references to “constructive international cooperation.” The policy document pledges to push back against unfriendly states hoping to militarize the region and to establish closer cooperative ties with non-Arctic states “pursuing a constructive policy towards Russia,” a possible reference to China, which also has aspirations in the polar region.
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5907
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 17 maj 2023 14:52
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: onsdag 17 maj 2023 12:12 Mycket rykten här. Artikeln i The WarZone (som Enceladus-kollektivet förefaller att inte ens ha läst) handlar väl mest om att förbättra befintliga vapensystem. Ryssland behöver f.ö. inte kärnvapenkapprusta, man har redan nu mer än tillräcklig kapacitet, även om Enceladus-kollektivet försökt vifta bort den med floskler som "svart magi".
The WarZone skrev:Together with corresponding developments in hypersonic weapons, including those that are delivered by other ICBMs, Russia certainly appears to be making concerted efforts to bolster its nuclear deterrence posture.

This is before taking into account the sobering reality that the current U.S. ballistic missile defense shield by itself is not enough to protect against an all-out Russian nuclear strike. Even the current Russian arsenal is more than capable of overwhelming the ballistic missile defenses of any other nation.
Men vem vet, The WarZone kanske är "rysk propaganda", den också.

"Ryssland kan möjligen hjälpa någon av parterna - troligen den som betalar bäst" är ju bara struntprat.
Den av skribenten länkade artikeln berör just hypersoniska vapen, varför jag ansåg det vara lämpligt att nämna Rysslands behandling av relevanta forskare.

Russia tries to conceal its dwindling nuclear stockpile
The Kyiv Independent skrev:Older delivery systems and warheads produced decades ago are naturally running out of their operational lifetime. And today's production of new missiles, strategic bombers, or nuclear-carrying submarine systems is not strong enough to compensate for the reduction.

According to experts, the decommissioning of Russian nuclear weapons started and will continue until at least the 2030s. But admitting this decline is impossible for the Kremlin, which puts nuclear weapons at the center of its intimidation efforts and war propaganda, both domestic and international.

[...]

Presented with the Kremlin's traditionally excessive pomposity, the Sarmat missiles had only two test launches, the latest ending in failure in late February 2023 around the time President Joe Biden was in Kyiv, according to the Pentagon.
För övrigt finns det många frågetecken kring Rysslands kapacitet.
Nä, artikeln "berör" inte hypersoniska vapen annat än att ordet "hypersonic" nämns en (1) gång i texten (det avsnittet citerade jag f.ö. ) I övrigt var det interkontinentala ballistiska kärnvapenbärare som analyserades.

Enceladus-kollektivet har f.ö. redan tidigare försökt spela ned Rysslands kärnvapenkapacitet genom att åberopa diverse obskyra källor. Utan större framgång. Att en ukrainska källa - som är part i målet - skriver som den gör är helt begripligt.

Däremot skriver The WarZone (vilket är bekant för den som har läst artikeln):
The WarZone skrev:It should also be noted, of course, that Russia has frequently talked up the capabilities of its weapons systems, strategic ones especially, and that it’s possible that the IPBV concept might still prove a dead-end. Depending on exactly how ‘new’ any of these missiles are, the process of getting them into operational service could also prove complicated. This was the case with the Bulava SLBM, which experienced significant delays in its development, and the Sarmat heavy ICBM is facing similar issues now, too.

On the other hand, should Russia indeed be about to bring an IPBV-equipped ICBM into production, the result could well be a relatively cost-effective way of challenging U.S. missile defenses and further boosting the overall flexibility of its strategic missile forces.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: onsdag 17 maj 2023 14:42 Intressant också att Enceladus-kollektivet inte vill erkänna att Erdogan-diktaturen är en diktatur utan sätter uttrycken inom citationstecken.
Utrikespolitiska institutet skriver att "Turkiet är en parlamentarisk demokrati, men en demokrati med begränsningar". På tal om demokrati:

Ukraine must hold elections despite war – PACE President Kox
Espreso TV skrev:"It's not our job to tell you how to do it, but of course, Ukraine has to organise free and fair elections. This is your obligation under the Council of Europe charter. And of course, you will do it. So it's up to you to meet this challenge," the PACE President said.
Behöver Ukraina införa elektronisk röstning för att väljare vid fronten ska kunna rösta?
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5907
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 17 maj 2023 15:15
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: onsdag 17 maj 2023 14:42 Intressant också att Enceladus-kollektivet inte vill erkänna att Erdogan-diktaturen är en diktatur utan sätter uttrycken inom citationstecken.
Utrikespolitiska institutet skriver att "Turkiet är en parlamentarisk demokrati, men en demokrati med begränsningar". På tal om demokrati:

Ukraine must hold elections despite war – PACE President Kox
Espreso TV skrev:"It's not our job to tell you how to do it, but of course, Ukraine has to organise free and fair elections. This is your obligation under the Council of Europe charter. And of course, you will do it. So it's up to you to meet this challenge," the PACE President said.
Behöver Ukraina införa elektronisk röstning för att väljare vid fronten ska kunna rösta?
UI behöver uppdatera sina uppfattningar.

Det är helt korrekt att Ukraina måste gå till val - president Zelenskyj tillträdde sitt ämbete 20/5 2019 och mandatperioden är 5 år (kan omväljas 1 gång, som sig bör i en demokrati!)
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: torsdag 04 maj 2023 20:38
Enceladus skrev: torsdag 04 maj 2023 18:22 Ja, hur är det med det ryska luftförsvaret? Kan det inte stoppa små drönare?
Äh, det den brittiska högerreaktionära och konspirationsteoretiska tidsktiften "The Spectator" är ingen pålitlig källa. ISW gör en betydligt bättre analys:
Ukraina: Agenter har dödat flera ryska propagandister
DN skrev:För en ukrainsk Youtubekanal berättar han också att den senaste tidens sabotage mot det ryska järnvägsnätet och fossila bränsledepåer nästan uteslutande har utförts av ryska medborgare.

Budanov hävdar att en liten minoritet av ryssarna vill förändra landet och därför väljer att samarbeta med Ukrainas militära underrättelsetjänst.

Utan att erkänna ukrainsk inblandning säger han också att den påstådda drönarattacken mot Kreml genomfördes på grund av ”den ryska aggressionen”. I början av maj spreds en video på en luftfarkost som exploderar ovanför en byggnad i regeringskvarteret i Moskva. Ryssland hävdade att det rörde sig om ett ukrainskt angrepp men syftet att döda Vladimir Putin.
Är Kyrylo Budanov, chef för Ukrainas militära underrättelsetjänst, en bättre källa? Här antyder han att den ryska regimen inte ligger bakom drönarattacken.

Vidare påstås att ukrainska agenter har dödat flera ryska krigsivrare i omtalade dåd, utan att nämna några namn. Förmodligen avses ideologen Aleksandr Dugins dotter Darya Dugina i Moskva, militärbloggaren Vladlen Tatarskij i Sankt Petersburg samt författaren Zachar Prilepins livvakt i Nizhny Novgorod.

Putins regim kan tydligen inte försvara sig mot utländska agenter på sitt eget territorium, och då avses förstås inte oberoende medier, utan riktiga agenter!

Putin clashes with own finance minister over damage done to Russian economy by oil sanctions
The Independent skrev:In a televised meeting chaired by President Putin through a video link, Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday that Russia’s revenues from oil and gas have taken a hit, blaming deep discounts offered to countries following the Ukraine invasion.

“Russia’s non-energy revenues are on track for growth as planned, with the potential for a small surplus by year-end, but there is a problem with energy revenues,” said Mr Siluanov.

Appearing to downplay his finance minister’s concerns, Mr Putin said the situation is “absolutely stable” and added that the lower revenues are due to “voluntary cuts” in oil production announced in coordination with Opec+ partners.
Rysslands finansminister Siluanov medger att västerländska sanktioner påverkar intäkterna från olja och gas, men Putin säger emot. Tror han på det själv?

Russia ‘is heading for financial crisis in 2024’
The Times skrev:Andrey Nechayev, 70, warned businessmen attending the Ekaterinburg financial forum this week that the country’s finances were “in the shit”. “And what’s worse is that we’ve decided to settle down there,” he said, in a rare high-level criticism of President Putin’s policies.

[...]

Nechayev added that while food franchises like “McDonald’s can be replaced by blini [Russian pancakes], high-tech products can’t”.

[...]

Sectors reliant on western technology have been particularly badly hit. Russia’s airlines are struggling with aircraft safety, with more than 2,000 flights last year using parts beyond their recommended shelf life, Viktor Basargin, head of Russia’s transport watchdog, said on Tuesday after a series of unplanned inspections. The watchdog found a shortage of components because it was “simply impossible to import certain products”, he said.

Russian media have reported that Aeroflot has been ordering staff not to report aircraft faults because it cannot fix them. Desperate Russian airlines have turned to criminal networks in the US offering to bypass sanctions to procure millions of dollars worth of parts, the New York Times reported this week.
Försöker Putin kombinera det sämsta av två världar, kapitalismens ojämlikhet och kommunismens ineffektivitet?
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5907
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av dr Cassandra Nojdh »

Enceladus skrev: fredag 19 maj 2023 0:48
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: torsdag 04 maj 2023 20:38
Enceladus skrev: torsdag 04 maj 2023 18:22 Ja, hur är det med det ryska luftförsvaret? Kan det inte stoppa små drönare?
Äh, det den brittiska högerreaktionära och konspirationsteoretiska tidsktiften "The Spectator" är ingen pålitlig källa. ISW gör en betydligt bättre analys:
Ukraina: Agenter har dödat flera ryska propagandister
DN skrev:För en ukrainsk Youtubekanal berättar han också att den senaste tidens sabotage mot det ryska järnvägsnätet och fossila bränsledepåer nästan uteslutande har utförts av ryska medborgare.

Budanov hävdar att en liten minoritet av ryssarna vill förändra landet och därför väljer att samarbeta med Ukrainas militära underrättelsetjänst.

Utan att erkänna ukrainsk inblandning säger han också att den påstådda drönarattacken mot Kreml genomfördes på grund av ”den ryska aggressionen”. I början av maj spreds en video på en luftfarkost som exploderar ovanför en byggnad i regeringskvarteret i Moskva. Ryssland hävdade att det rörde sig om ett ukrainskt angrepp men syftet att döda Vladimir Putin.
Är Kyrylo Budanov, chef för Ukrainas militära underrättelsetjänst, en bättre källa? Här antyder han att den ryska regimen inte ligger bakom drönarattacken.

Vidare påstås att ukrainska agenter har dödat flera ryska krigsivrare i omtalade dåd, utan att nämna några namn. Förmodligen avses ideologen Aleksandr Dugins dotter Darya Dugina i Moskva, militärbloggaren Vladlen Tatarskij i Sankt Petersburg samt författaren Zachar Prilepins livvakt i Nizhny Novgorod.

Putins regim kan tydligen inte försvara sig mot utländska agenter på sitt eget territorium, och då avses förstås inte oberoende medier, utan riktiga agenter!
Nä, egentligen inte! Det är omöjligt för utomstående att avgöra vad som döljer sig bakom krigets propagandadimmor. Självklart ligger det i Ukrainas intresse att marknadsföra sådana här berättelser.

Sansade bedömare - till vilka Enceladus-kollektivet uppenbarligen inte hör - avstår förstås från att spekulera över såhär pass lösliga uppgifter!
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Användarens profilbild
dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5907
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Banditen och diktatorn Erdogan har i nåder låtit sig intervjuas av CNN. I intervjun hyllar han sin och Turkiets relation till Ryssland:
Erdogan hails ‘special relationship’ with Putin ahead of crucial Turkey runoff vote
CNN skrev: Turkey has a “special” and growing relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin despite mounting pressure on Ankara to help bolster Western sanctions against Moscow, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in an exclusive interview ahead of next week’s presidential election runoff.

“We are not at a point where we would impose sanctions on Russia like the West have done. We are not bound by the West’s sanctions,” Erdogan told CNN’s Becky Anderson. “We are a strong state and we have a positive relationship with Russia.”

“Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible,” he added.
Sverige får också vara med på ett hörn:
CNN skrev:“As long as Sweden continues to allow the offshoots of terror groups in Turkey to roam free in Sweden, in the streets of Stockholm, we cannot look favorably on Sweden’s membership in NATO,” Erdogan said.

“We’re not ready for Sweden right now,” he added. “Because a NATO country should have a strong stance when it comes to fighting terrorism.”
Vad Nato är bestämmer Erdogan! Mera glass, någon?
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Russia Pushes India for Help to Avert Global Financial Isolation
Bloomberg skrev:The Kremlin is pressuring governments including India behind the scenes, threatening to upend defense and energy deals unless they help block expected moves aimed at turning Russia into a financial pariah state over its invasion of Ukraine.

[...]

The Financial Action Task Force, an inter-governmental organization that sets standards for combating dirty money, suspended Russia from membership in February and Ukraine is pushing for the body to impose further restrictions by adding Moscow to its “black list” or “gray list.”

Blacklisting by the FATF would put Putin’s government in the same company as North Korea, Iran and Myanmar, the only countries with that designation, and plunge his economy even deeper into isolation over the war. If the measure comes to pass, member states as well as banks, investment houses and payment-processing companies would be obliged to conduct enhanced due diligence and in the most serious cases take counter-measures to protect the international financial system.

[...]

The sectors Russia identified as at risk are particularly sensitive in the strategic partnership with India. Russia is India’s largest provider of weapons though defense supplies have stalled for lack of a payment mechanism that doesn’t violate US sanctions.
Ännu en motgång stundar för det militära samarbetet mellan Ryssland och Indien.

Russian business titans demand 6-day work week to cope with sanctions
POLITICO skrev:A Russian business association has called on the labor ministry to consider moving to a six-day work week so they can better deal with fallout from Western sanctions, Kremlin-controlled media reported Monday.

With sanctions straining the Russian economy, “Our financial and economic system is still in need of additional investments,” the Avanti business club said in a letter to the labor minister, Anton Kotyakov, according to Russian outlet Izvestia.

[...]

The EU is currently discussing an 11th round of sanctions against Russia, which could include measures targeting countries that continue doing business with Moscow, thus allowing it to bypass the sanctions.
Putin hävdar att allt går enligt plan. Nu föreslås sex dagars arbetsvecka i Ryssland - sanktionerna har ju ingen effekt!

Explainer: What are Russia's options for managing its widening budget deficit?
Reuters skrev:As Russia's military spending soars and sanctions squeeze its energy revenues, Moscow faces a battle to keep its budget deficit in check, with few economists now expecting the finance ministry to stick to its promise of a deficit no higher than 2% of GDP.

[...]

That looks especially difficult as Jan-April expenditure has already hit 39% of the total, said Olga Belenkaya of Finam brokerage, who expects a deficit of at least 4-5 trillion roubles this year.

It is also hard to see where the cuts could come from. Defence spending shows no signs of abating, not least when Ukraine is preparing for a long-awaited counteroffensive, and social spending traditionally rises before presidential elections - the next one is just 10 months away.
Enligt flera analytiker är det ryska låtsasvalet nästa år viktigt för Putin. Varifrån ska pengarna till kriget komma då?

Doom-mongers are wrong to underestimate the European economy
Financial Times skrev:Politically, the debate was won by the doom-mongers. The impressive speed with which Berlin found substitute sources of gas and built emergency infrastructure makes it easy to forget that Germany did not in fact choose to go without Russian gas. That was a decision Putin made for it by throttling gas supplies before stopping them altogether late last summer. And the EU as a whole took too long to agree its still-incomplete restrictions on Russian energy imports.

But the truth was on the optimists’ side. (I had a dog in this fight: I argued a week into the war that Europe could and should go “cold turkey” on Russian gas imports.) As Moll and his colleagues make clear, Germany’s growth outcome has been as good as the rosiest estimates of the energy war’s toll. There was no “cascade” of production cuts, bankruptcies and lay-offs from the most energy-intensive industries to the wider economy. Despite a drop in March, manufacturing output remains greater than a year earlier.

The authors even find that, according to German meteorological data, temperatures were no higher than the multiyear trend: if so, the idea that Germany was saved by a warm winter seems to be a myth. The gas left in storage by the end of the heating season means Germany never needed the Russian gas it bought before Putin closed the taps. Cold turkey would have been perfectly feasible.
Jag nämner inga namn, men vissa skribenter i denna tråd kan känna sig träffade.

EU says it's sent 220,000 artillery shells to Ukraine
Reuters skrev:European Union countries have provided 220,000 artillery shells to Ukraine under a landmark scheme launched two months ago to ramp up supplies of ammunition to Kyiv to help fight off Russia's invasion, the EU foreign policy chief said on Tuesday.

Josep Borrell said EU states had also given 1,300 missiles under the scheme and were on track to hit a target of supplying 1 million pieces of ammunition within a year, even though some EU countries have avoided endorsing that goal as feasible.

[...]

The first element of the plan encourages EU members to send ammunition from stockpiles, the second provides incentives for countries to place joint orders and the third focuses on helping arms firms increase their production capacities.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster utgör nu 10 419 enheter, varav 1 982 stridsvagnar, 82 flygplan, 90 helikoptrar, 9 strids- och 238 spaningsdrönare.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: onsdag 17 maj 2023 12:12 "Ryssland kan möjligen hjälpa någon av parterna - troligen den som betalar bäst" är ju bara struntprat.
Exclusive: Russian hypersonic scientist accused of betraying secrets to China
Reuters skrev:The director of a top Russian science institute, arrested on suspicion of treason along with two other hypersonic missile technology experts, stands accused of betraying secrets to China, two people familiar with the case told Reuters.

[...]

The ITAM cases, as well as previous arrests for treason, suggest Moscow is vigilant about losing any technological edge, including to China, an ally on which it has become increasingly reliant for political and trade support since launching its invasion of Ukraine 15 months ago.

Last year, laser specialist Dmitry Kolker was arrested in Siberia on treason charges but died two days later of cancer. His lawyer Alexander Fedulov told Reuters last week that Kolker was accused of passing secrets to China, an allegation that the scientist's family denied.
Som sagt, en "vänskap utan gränser" och utan "förbjudna samarbetsområden"... :lol: :lol: :lol:
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5907
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 24 maj 2023 17:59
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: onsdag 17 maj 2023 12:12 "Ryssland kan möjligen hjälpa någon av parterna - troligen den som betalar bäst" är ju bara struntprat.
Exclusive: Russian hypersonic scientist accused of betraying secrets to China
Reuters skrev:The director of a top Russian science institute, arrested on suspicion of treason along with two other hypersonic missile technology experts, stands accused of betraying secrets to China, two people familiar with the case told Reuters.

[...]

The ITAM cases, as well as previous arrests for treason, suggest Moscow is vigilant about losing any technological edge, including to China, an ally on which it has become increasingly reliant for political and trade support since launching its invasion of Ukraine 15 months ago.

Last year, laser specialist Dmitry Kolker was arrested in Siberia on treason charges but died two days later of cancer. His lawyer Alexander Fedulov told Reuters last week that Kolker was accused of passing secrets to China, an allegation that the scientist's family denied.
Som sagt, en "vänskap utan gränser" och utan "förbjudna samarbetsområden"... :lol: :lol: :lol:
Ja, Putin behöver uppenbarligen syndabockar......
Bild
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Enceladus skrev: fredag 03 mars 2023 19:06 The “Manchurian President”. Vladimir Milov on how Russia became a raw-materials appendage of Beijing
The Insider skrev:Having broken up with the West after the annexation of Crimea, Russia has not only failed in global economic partnership with China but has been selling natural resources at a loss and on Chinese terms, spending money from the National Wealth Fund and enriching Chinese companies and Vladimir Putin's friends.
Mästerstrategen gör det igen!
Power of Siberia: China keeps Putin waiting on gas pipeline
Financial Times skrev:Russia’s prime minister left China this week without a reward Moscow has long prized: a clear commitment from Beijing on Power of Siberia 2, a grand gas pipeline project to transform energy flows across Asia.

[...]

“Beijing has a history of prolonging negotiations to get a better deal — this was the case when the Power of Siberia 1 was negotiated,” said Alicja Bachulska, a China policy expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “As Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has turned into a protracted war, Beijing believes that its bargaining position vis-à-vis Moscow can only get stronger.”

[...]

Even with the PS-2 pipeline in place, Russia would not be able to match what it has lost in European sales. The price of this gas would also be lower. Gas sent through the first Power of Siberia pipeline — on terms struck when Russia’s negotiating position was much stronger — is priced well below the European market rate.

[...]

This sum, equivalent to less than half of Russia’s average monthly energy revenues in 2023, would hardly be transformative. But the Kremlin is desperate for additional revenue as its budget deficit balloons, its war costs increase, and its European gas sales wane. Mitrova of Columbia University said: “This gas has nowhere else to go.”
Mästerstrategen slår till igen!

There are only two global superpowers left
Financial Times skrev:Southern powers start from an understanding of western hypocrisy. They know our habit of casting our own problems as the world’s — for instance, calling Ukraine “a war for global democracy”. They are equally clear-eyed about Russia. They don’t buy Vladimir Putin’s story that the west forced him to destroy Ukraine. An official from one Russia-friendly southern power told me that as Russia “goes down the drain”, his government is quietly pivoting away. His country isn’t pro-Russian or anti-western. It’s just pro-itself.

Southern powers tend to be insular: even their elites rarely travel abroad. They are scarcely heard in the global conversation. They don’t fight foreign wars. They are overwhelmed by basic domestic problems: providing their citizens with food, electricity and toilets. South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa worries less about Russian massacres than about rivals inside his ruling party, the ANC.

[...]

There is Global China and Global US (for now), but not Global anything else. If the two superpowers clash over Taiwan, every neighbourhood power intends to watch from the audience, though only Emmanuel Macron has been crude enough to say so.
Även Sydafrika börjar inse att Ryssland inte längre är en supermakt.

WHO members vote to move Moscow office and urge Russia to stop attacks on hospitals
The Guardian skrev:Member states of the World Health Organization voted on Wednesday to move a Moscow-based office of the WHO to Copenhagen, and urged Russia to stop attacks on hospitals and healthcare facilities in Ukraine.

[...]

“Hosting a UN office is a privilege not a right,” said a Danish delegate at the assembly. “It comes with obligations, starting with the compliance with the UN charter. This has been violated by Russia in Ukraine.”

[...]

Maksym Baryshnikov, one of the authors of the Civic Hub petition, welcomed the decision to move the Moscow WHO office as a step in the right direction. “Any international organisation that Russia is a part of becomes a tool in its hand,” he said. “We need to cut this hand off.”
WHO:s kontor för icke-smittsamma sjukdomar flyttas från Moskva till Köpenhamn. Omkring 90 procent av alla dödsfall i Europa orsakas av icke-smittsamma sjukdomar. Är detta slutet för Ryssland som säte för internationella kontor?

Wagner chief warns of revolution and says 20,000 fighters killed in Bakhmut
The Guardian skrev:The head of the Wagner mercenary force has said that 20,000 of its fighters have been killed in the battle for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, and warned that Russia could face another revolution if its leadership does not improve its handling of the war.

[...]

“This divide can end as in 1917 with a revolution,” he said in an interview posted on his channel on the Telegram messaging app. “First the soldiers will stand up, and after that – their loved ones will rise up. There are already tens of thousands of them – relatives of those killed. And there will probably be hundreds of thousands – we cannot avoid that.”

[...]

Prigozhin was speaking after two Russian rebel militias, the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion, had made a dramatic incursion into the Belgorod region along Ukraine’s northern border, crossing into Russia with apparent ease, although the Wagner boss did not refer directly to the raid.

[...]

“There are 800-something kilometres of border between Ukraine and Russia that are currently totally uncovered by the Russian military and the reason for this is because the west says all the time that Ukraine should not attack Russia,” Ponomarev said.
Detta krig har onekligen paralleller i Rysslands historia...
Enceladus
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China prioritising Turkmenistan over Russia in next big pipeline project
Reuters skrev:China is accelerating the building of a long-delayed Central Asian pipeline to source gas from Turkmenistan even as Russia pushes its own new Siberian connection, as Beijing juggles its energy security needs with diplomatic priorities.

[...]

But Moscow's recent push to land its second Siberia pipeline connection with China, the Power of Siberia 2, to make up for shrunken sales in Europe due to the Ukraine crisis, provides Beijing a lever to advance the central Asian project, according to Chinese oil officials and industry consultants.

[...]

China may eventually seal both deals to feed its massive long-term gas needs, but is prioritising Turkmenistan, industry officials said, as Beijing has long seen Central Asia as a frontier to expand trade, secure energy and maintain stability in its once-restive western Xinjiang region.
Kina spänner musklerna genom att prioritera gasledningar till andra länder just när Ryssland skulle behöva det som mest. :lol:

McCaul open to selling F-16s to Turkey — even if Erdoğan wins
POLITICO skrev:An important caveat: McCaul hastened to add that all four of the lawmakers currently agree on barring sales today. But the Texan said he believes they will approve the transfer once Turkey ratifies Sweden’s membership in NATO, and after recent approvals for Greece to buy U.S.-made F-35 warplanes and to get upgrades to its F-16s.

“We’ve been assured that after the election, regardless of the winner, that Sweden will be recognized as a NATO ally,” McCaul said.
Michael McCaul, ordförande i amerikanska representanthusets försvarsutskott, säger att Turkiet godkänner Sveriges Natoansökan efter söndagens val.

Did Merkel Pave the Way for the War in Ukraine?
WSJ skrev:At an event last year, Merkel recalled that after annexing Crimea, Putin had told her that he wanted to destroy the European Union. But she still forged ahead with plans to build the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, linking Germany directly to Siberia’s natural gas fields, in the face of protests from the U.S. Merkel’s government also approved the sale of Germany’s largest gas storage facilities to Russia’s state-controlled gas giant Gazprom.
Historiens dom kommer att bli hård mot Tysklands tidigare förbundskansler Merkel.

Netherlands Likely to Send F-16s to Ukraine After Pilot Training
Bloomberg skrev:The Netherlands will likely send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine after pilot training, according to two people familiar with the matter.

[...]

The Netherlands currently has 42 F-16 fighter jets in its inventory, 24 of which are currently being used by the Dutch army and cannot be sent to Ukraine until mid-2024. A dozen of the other 18 jets were to be sold to Draken International but the government delayed the transfer of the aircraft in December without disclosing an explanation, citing commercial confidentiality.

Although the final decision on deployment has not yet been made, Ukraine may get some of the jets that are on sale or some of the currently operational 24 jets next year depending on the training timeline, the people said. The Netherlands keeps all its F-16 jets airworthy through regular maintenance.
Vilken ironi om Ukraina får sina första västerländska stridsflygplan från Nederländerna - nio år efter Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.

Vidare finns det uppgifter om att Ukraina har slagit till mot det ryska underrättelsefartyget Ivan Khurs - ett av Rysslands stora skrytbyggen på Svarta havet.
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Enceladus skrev: fredag 26 maj 2023 17:32 Netherlands Likely to Send F-16s to Ukraine After Pilot Training
Bloomberg skrev:The Netherlands will likely send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine after pilot training, according to two people familiar with the matter.

[...]

The Netherlands currently has 42 F-16 fighter jets in its inventory, 24 of which are currently being used by the Dutch army and cannot be sent to Ukraine until mid-2024. A dozen of the other 18 jets were to be sold to Draken International but the government delayed the transfer of the aircraft in December without disclosing an explanation, citing commercial confidentiality.

Although the final decision on deployment has not yet been made, Ukraine may get some of the jets that are on sale or some of the currently operational 24 jets next year depending on the training timeline, the people said. The Netherlands keeps all its F-16 jets airworthy through regular maintenance.
Vilken ironi om Ukraina får sina första västerländska stridsflygplan från Nederländerna - nio år efter Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.
Nederländerna och Danmark tar ledningen för den europeiska F-16-koalitionen:
Denmark, Netherlands To Lead F-16 Pilot Training Coalition (The WarZone)
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
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Invasion of Ukraine ‘has fuelled funding boom for clean energy’
The Guardian skrev:Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has helped ignite a boom in clean energy investment which will significantly outpace spending on fossil fuels, according to the International Energy Agency.

A report from the IEA has found that clean energy investment is on track to reach $1.7tn (£1.4tn) this year as investors turn to renewables, electric vehicles, nuclear power, grids, storage and other low-carbon technologies.

[...]

The clean energy boom is particularly apparent in solar power investment, Birol said. “For the first time in history the amount of investment going to solar is higher than the amount going to oil production. It may be symbolic but it is very important because it shows the tide turning,” he said.

[...]

The IEA report showed that clean energy investment has accelerated well beyond spending on gas, coal and oil as governments become increasingly concerned about developing secure, homegrown energy sources.
Rysslands invasion av Ukraina har drivit på åtgärder för snabbare energioberoende. Enbart investeringar i solenergi förbigår investeringar i olja.

Solar power due to overtake oil production investment for first time, IEA says
Reuters skrev:Around 90% of that clean energy spending comes from advanced economies and China, however, highlighting the global divide between rich and poor countries as fossil fuel investment is still double the levels needed to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.

"Clean energy is moving fast – faster than many people realise," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

[...]

"The irony remains that some of the sunniest places in the world have the lowest levels of solar investment."
Däremot sker investeringarna nästan uteslutande i avancerade ekonomier, trots att potentialen är ännu större utanför. Kina dominerar fullständigt.

Europe’s Natural Gas Prices Set For Longest Weekly Losing Streak In A Decade
Oilprice.com skrev:Gas prices were on course to drop by as much as 15% this week alone, according to estimates by The Wall Street Journal. Prices have now tumbled by 66% since the beginning of this year and by 90% since the August 2022 record-high of over $322 (300 euros) per MWh.

Gas prices are now at their lowest since the start of the energy crisis in Europe in the autumn of 2021, ahead of the 2021/2022 winter season, with the crisis reaching a peak later in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the lack of most of Russia’s pipeline gas supply.

[...]

Currently, gas inventories in Europe are comfortably high for this time of the year. As of May 24, natural gas storage sites in the EU were 66.71% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. The level of gas in storage is the highest for this time of the year in at least a decade.
Dessutom verkar Europa klara sig alldeles utmärkt utan rysk gas!

Saudi Arabia, Russia Ties Under Strain Over Oil-Production Cuts
WSJ skrev:The OPEC+ meeting comes after Saudi Arabia, Russia and other OPEC+ members in early April said they would reduce output in a move that was expected to prop up oil prices. Riyadh started cutting production this month. Moscow at the time said it would extend unilateral curbs that took effect in March to the end of the year.

Now, the latest available data indicates that Russia continues to pump large volumes of oil into the market, which has helped maximize income for its beleaguered economy but added to a global surplus, industry officials and traders say.

[...]

It remains unclear if Saudi Arabia will take any immediate action that would affect the energy alliance with Russia. Frictions between Riyadh and Moscow aren’t new to OPEC+. In March 2020, oil prices collapsed after Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to agree on an emergency plan to address a supply glut. After the disagreement, Saudi Arabia embarked on a price war in an attempt to grab market share from Russia.

[...]

Last week, Saudi Arabia invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to attend the annual Arab League summit as a special guest. The kingdom is one of the many countries offering to mediate an end to the war. It helped negotiate a high-profile prisoner swap last year between Russia and Ukraine and announced $400 million in humanitarian aid for Kyiv.
Saudiarabien och Ryssland är inga naturliga allierade, precis som Kina och Ryssland. Igår fyllde realpolitikens gudfader Henry Kissinger 100 år.

Empire's Twilight? Russia Loses Support in Its Own Backyard
Gallup skrev:In four countries historically sympathetic to Russian leadership -- Armenia, Moldova, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan -- the percentage who disapprove now exceeds the percentage who approve. For example, approval of Russian leadership in Armenia dropped 13 percentage points (from 45% to 32%) between 2021 and 2022, while disapproval rose 20 percentage points (from 38% to 58%).

[...]

Many observers believe a “great game” in terms of jockeying for power and influence is underway in post-Soviet countries, especially in Central Asia. Such analysis often characterizes this game as a zero-sum contest that Russia is currently losing. While there are signs this may be happening in some countries, the picture appears somewhat mixed, at least from the perspective of the “soft power” represented by public opinion of Russian leadership.

However, the general conclusion from Gallup’s 2022 leadership ratings is clear: In much of the region where Russia’s power and influence are greatest, its actions have seriously eroded its status and prestige. This seismic shift in public opinion may signal the twilight of Europe’s last empire.
Har Ryssland fortfarande några allierade, förutom pariastater som Nordkorea och Iran?
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Enceladus skrev: söndag 28 maj 2023 6:44 Igår fyllde realpolitikens gudfader Henry Kissinger 100 år.
Gubben Henry 100 år! Hur :evil: har han kunnat hålla sig vid liv så länge.

Kommunisterna i tidskriften "Proletären" har förstås en egen analys: KRIGSHÖKEN SOM KOM UT SOM FREDSDUVA?
Proletären skrev:Men Kissinger var samtidigt en realistisk geopolitisk spelare. Som utrikesminister utgick han från faktiska maktförhållanden, inte från önsketänkande.

Det ger Kissingers position till konflikten i Ukraina, där han bara några månader efter krigsutbrottet, i ett tal på World Economic Forum i Davos, förespråkade en omedelbar vapenvila och ett tillbakadragande av trupperna till de positioner de höll före 24 februari 2022.

Enligt detta koncept ska ryska trupper fortsatt finnas kvar på Krim och i en tredjedel av regionerna Donetsk och Luhansk, först därefter ska förhandlingar om slutgiltiga gränser inledas.

Utspelet utlöste naturligtvis ett ramaskri bland krigsaktivister i väst, som bara har Rysslands totala nederlag på sin agenda. Kissinger varnar för en sådan ambition. Men inte heller nu som altruistisk fredsvän, det är inte slakten på slagfälten som bekymrar honom, utan en politik som obönhörligt driver Ryssland bort från Europa och rakt i famnen på Kina. Ambitionen att besegra och totalt förnedra Ryssland betraktar Kissinger som kontraproduktiv.

Så är det inte Henry Kissinger som genomgått ett förvandlingsnummer. Utan den västimperialistiska politiken, som efter Sovjetunionens sammanbrott 1991 bara erkänner de egna intressena i vad som betraktas som en unipolär värld.

Det är en livsfarlig politik i kärnvapnens tidevarv.
Ja, det är inte lätt att vara kommunist idag: AFRIKANSKA FREDSTREVARE – VÄST SKICKAR STRIDSFLYG
Proletären skrev: I krigspropagandans Sverige är det inte självklart varför regeringen i Kiev ens lyssnar till det kinesiska sändebudet Li Hui, som dessutom varit ambassadör i Moskva – som om det skulle göra honom mindre lämplig.

Kina är inte heller det enda land som vill mäkla fred på sistone. På den afrikanska kontinenten planerar Sydafrika tillsammans med fem andra länder att besöka såväl Moskva som Kiev på ett ”fredsuppdrag”. Det uppgav landets president Cyril Ramaphosa förra tisdagen.

Ramaphosa skrev också i sitt nyhetsbrev förra veckan att det förekommit ”extraordinär press på landet att ge upp sin icke-allierade postition och välja sida i vad som i praktiken är en strid mellan Ryssland och väst”.

Men Sydafrika, som är en del av BRICS-samarbetet med Brasilien, Ryssland, Indien och Kina, kommer inte rucka på sin position, skriver Ramaphosa, som också ska ha fått grönt ljus från både Rysslands president Vladimir Putin och Ukrainas president Volodomyr Zelenskyj att presentera sin fredsplan.

”Realiteten är att konflikten mellan Ryssland och Ukraina – och de underliggande spänningarna – inte kommer att lösas med militära medel. Den måste lösas politiskt”, skriver Ramaphosa och fortsätter:

”Vi accepterar inte att vår icke-allierade position favoriserar Ryssland över andra länder. Inte heller accepterar vi att den ska skada vår relation med andra länder.”

De andra länderna i det afrikanska fredsinitiativet är Zambia, Senegal, Egypten, Uganda och Republiken Kongo, vilket säger något om hur västvärldens självskrivna dominans i världen är ifrågasatt. I något av en motsats till den afrikanska sextetten finns G7-länderna, som består av USA, Storbritannien, Italien, Kanada, Frankrike, Tyskland och Japan.
Som jag sagt åtskilliga gånger, skillnaden mellan höger- och vänsterextremister är egentligen rätt liten
Proletären skrev:I Sveriges radio avfärdade korrespondenten Lubna El-Shanti – som började sin journalistiska bana som informatör åt Försvarsmakten – uppgifterna om Bachmut som rykten, innan hon i lördags beskrev läget som komplicerat, men att det skulle vara ukrainska styrkor som avancerat i staden.

Den ideologiskt drivna El-Shanti lyckades också föra in myten om det så kallade Holodomor – det vill säga att svältkatastrofen i Ukraina (och stora delar av Sovjetunionen) på tidigt 1930-tal skulle varit medvetet planerad från Moskva – i ett inslag som handlade om att det Turkietförhandlade spannmålsavtalet mellan Ryssland och Ukraina förlängs.
Observera särskilt "myten om det så kallade Holodomor" - kommunistisk standardretorik.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: lördag 01 april 2023 23:06
Enceladus skrev: lördag 01 april 2023 22:30
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: lördag 01 april 2023 17:44 Också kul att Enceladus-kollektivet kan se in i framtiden och vet vem som vinner det turkiska presidentvalet. Jag kan ju, som jämförelse, peka på det ungerska parlamentsvalet, där den förenade oppositionen troddes ha en realistisk chans att vinna. Men Orban sopade mattan med dem.
Jämför följande två artiklar på Wikipedia:

Opinion polling for the 2022 Hungarian parliamentary election
Opinion polling for the 2023 Turkish presidential election

Opinionsundersökningar är förvånansvärt träffsäkra. Turkiets Gandhi har inte samma försprång som Orban, men är likväl favorittippad.
Opinionsundersökningar är svart magi! Dessutom är förtrycket i Erdogan-diktaturen avsevärt mycket hårdare än i Orbanien. Det gör alla turkiska siffror osäkra.

"men är likväl favorittippad" - innebörden är väl att den där herrn är Enceladus-kollektivets favorit. Påhittet "Turkiets Gandhi" tyder ju på det, även om uttrycket är hämtat från diverse medier. Indiens Mohandas Gandhi var f.ö. - till skillnad från Jawaharlal Nehru - ingen världslig ledare.
Erdogans "förmodade" efterträdare blev - Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Så var det med den träffsäkerheten. Som jag förutsade i mars:
viewtopic.php?p=412378#p412378

Även det faktum att valet gick till en andra omgång förutsåg jag: viewtopic.php?p=412789#p412789

Eller, som Erdogan uttryckte det i sitt "segertal": Bye, bye, Kemal. Som jag förstod det förföll Kilicdaroglu också till nationalistisk högerretorik inför den andra omgången, men det hjälpte inte. Varför ska man rösta på kopian när det finns ett original? Något som Kristersson borde tänka på lite oftare.
Senast redigerad av dr Cassandra Nojdh den söndag 28 maj 2023 22:55, redigerad totalt 2 gång.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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Först att gratulera var förstås, ja gissa vem - the freedom fighter (enligt egen benämning):
Bild

Nr. 2 var förstås Vladimir Vladimirovitj Putin och nr. 3 - inte helt oväntat:

Bild

Ja, "our common security" fixar vi såhär:

Bild

Samtidigt har den spinkige utrikesministern kommit på att "PKK ett större problem än vi trott". Ligger bakom gängbrottsligheten gör de också! Nu måste vi väl ändå få fart på utvisningarna.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
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Moldova Sees EU Entry by 2030 With Russian-Occupied Region
Bloomberg skrev:The secret to solving Moldova’s separatist conflict will be to pursue economic reforms and fight corruption. That will put the nation of 2.6 million — one of Europe’s poorest — on a clear EU accession path and show people in Transnistria that ties with the bloc, rather than Russia, will benefit their lives, President Maia Sandu said.

“The sooner we increase living standards, the sooner we will have the chance for the reunification,” Sandu, 51, said in an interview in Chisinau on Tuesday, two days before she hosts a security summit of European leaders. “100%, that’s our objective.”

[...]

“Look at Cyprus,” Borrell told reporters in Chisinau on Wednesday, referring to the EU member whose north is Turkish-controlled. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, also in the Moldovan capital, praised the government for “good progress” on reforms, which may pave the way for accession talks.

[...]

Moscow has repeatedly denied interfering in Moldova’s affairs but maintains more than 1,000 troops in Transnistria that western military analysts say pose a risk both to stability in Moldova and security in Ukraine to the east. In February, Sandu cited intelligence received from Ukraine saying Russia was trying to overthrow her government.
Moldaviens regering önskar en fredlig lösning i den ryskkontrollerade utbrytarrepubliken Transnistrien. Hög levnadsstandard ska locka invånarna till EU.

Negotiating with Putin may have to take priority over war crimes trial, says Macron
The Guardian skrev:In a wide-ranging speech at an EU leaders conference in Moldova, the French president also set out plans for a fast enlargement of the EU, reconciliation between the east and west of Europe and a clear path to Ukraine’s Nato membership.

He insisted that Russia had lost all legitimacy, but said if the coming Ukraine offensive did not meet its military objectives there would have to be an assessment of the nature of future European support for Ukraine. At the same time he insisted that Ukraine was defending not just its own borders, but those of Europe.
Macron upprätthåller traditionen med motsägelsefulla budskap. Ett medlemskap i Nato kräver ju en militär seger snarare än förhandlingar.

Ukraine’s economy shows ‘resilience’ amid Russian invasion, IMF says
PBS NewsHour skrev:The outlook improved to 1 percent to 3 percent growth this year from minus 3 percent to plus 1 percent in an earlier assessment in March, said Gavin Gray, the IMF’s mission chief to Ukraine.

Inflation is coming down and the hryvna currency is stable despite the massive disruption of the war, Gray said. But he warned that the economic outlook faces “exceptionally high risks.”

[...]

Ukrainian officials have been at pains to show they are cracking down on corruption as they seek membership in the European Union. The head of the country’s Supreme Court was arrested this month on bribery charges, while several senior officials, including front-line provincial governors and a deputy defense minister, lost their jobs over corruption allegations in January.
Enligt IMF väntas Ukrainas ekonomi växa snabbare än den ryska i år, och då har IMF en av de mest optimistiska prognoserna för Ryssland.

She had a dream job. Now, she's part of a massive brain drain hammering Russia
NPR skrev:According to one estimate, more than 1.3 million Russians under age 35 left the Russian workforce just last year alone, though that number could include other factors such as workers taking jobs not officially captured in statistics.

Especially among those who have fled the country are educated workers with in-demand skills like engineering or computer programming. This massive loss of talent looks to be one of the biggest economic consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

[...]

Still, Itskhoki and Prokopenko stress that the biggest issue facing the Russian economy isn't products or sanctions: It's people.
Ryssland håller på att förlora den kanske mest värdefulla resursen av dem alla - humankapital.

How much is Russia spending on its invasion of Ukraine?
The Economist skrev:Three reasons explain why Russia is spending so little. The first is political. Many within the Russian government would like to continue to portray the war on Ukraine as a “special military operation”. It would hardly make sense for such an operation to cost a double-digit percentage of GDP.

The second is economic. Russia would struggle to expand the war effort without costing its citizens dearly: printing money would spur inflation, eroding living standards; loading up banks with public debt might have a similar effect; tax rises or a big shift in public expenditure towards defence would also eat into personal incomes. This is a problem for Vladimir Putin, who has presidential elections in 2024. Mr Putin’s victory seems certain, but he does not want the potential embarrassment of large demonstrations, as happened for example in legislative elections in 2011. “Of course, national defence is the top priority,” he said recently, “but in resolving strategic tasks in this area, we should not repeat the mistakes of the past and should not destroy our own economy.”

The third reason relates to defence economics more broadly. Today’s armed forces are far more efficient than the ones of the past. They need ever fewer people and their machines are ever more accurate. The economic theory of “cost disease” suggests that high-productivity sectors tend to command a smaller share of GDP over time (unlike something like health care, which tends to take up a bigger share). Spending a lot less than you did in 1945 can still buy you a powerful army.
Pengar är förstås också ett problem, men huvudsakligen på längre sikt.
Enceladus
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Russia’s Rupee Trap Is Adding to $147 Billion Hoard Abroad
Bloomberg skrev:A lopsided trade relationship with India is forcing Russia to accumulate up to $1 billion each month in rupee assets that remain stranded outside the country, swelling the stockpile of capital it’s amassed abroad since the invasion of Ukraine.

[...]

But with imports from India stagnating, Russia is ending up with an excess of rupees, which its companies have trouble repatriating because of local currency restrictions. Deadlock over a solution has left Russia expecting the surplus to rise further, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

[...]

In the months following the invasion, households and companies have also been moving billions of dollars in funds to banks abroad. And with some foreign revenue now trapped overseas, pressure on the ruble may grow worse since fewer export proceeds will be converted into the Russian currency.

The warping of commerce leaves few good options for the Kremlin and underscores how little bargaining power it has in a redrawn global oil market that’s seen Asian powerhouses India and China scoop up cheaper Russian oil. It also shows why a shift away from the currencies of Russia’s adversaries remains fraught with risks.
Ryssland samlar på sig indiska rupier - i brist på alternativ. Men vad ska Ryssland göra med pengarna som bara kan användas i Indien? :roll:

Solar and EV Booms Push China Toward Energy Tipping Point
Bloomberg skrev:As well as BYD, China’s largest automaker, Tesla Inc. was there, along with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd., the world’s biggest electric vehicle battery manufacturer. They joined thousands of domestic solar companies. The buzz was reminiscent of the auto show in Shanghai a month earlier, when onlookers thronged around the latest EV models.

The excitement around solar and EVs suggests China is nearing an inflection point in its energy transition more than a half-decade before a 2030 target to peak emissions. It no longer requires heavy government subsidies to push people away from fossil fuels. Cheap solar panels are a better way to make money than burning expensive coal, while EVs are cheaper to operate — and increasingly more fun to drive — than gasoline-powered vehicles.

BloombergNEF lifted its forecast for China’s 2023 solar installations last week. It now expects the country to add nearly three times the capacity it did just two years ago, or more than the entire total in the US. EVs, meanwhile, made up more than a third of all vehicle sales in China last month.
Hur länge till kan Ryssland sälja olja till Kina? Den oberoende transportorganisationen ICCT pekar ut Tesla och BYD som ledare. BYD slår rekord efter rekord.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX Wins Pentagon Deal for Starlink in Ukraine
Bloomberg skrev:The terminals will likely be purchased under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which provides for the embattled nation’s long-term security needs. In December, the Defense Department disclosed in announcing such a funding package that it would provide satellite communications “terminals and services” to Ukraine, but didn’t confirm that Musk’s company would get the contract.

[...]

The same month, Musk offered a peace proposal that would require Ukraine to remain neutral, cede Crimea to Russia and redo elections in areas of Ukraine taken over by Russia. “This is highly likely to be the outcome in the end – just a question of how many die before then,” Musk wrote on Twitter, which he now owns. “Also worth noting that a possible, albeit unlikely, outcome from this conflict is nuclear war.”

[...]

Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX’s president and chief operating officer, said at a February industry conference in Washington that Starlink was being used in unintended ways, which the company has since tried to stop. “It was never intended to be weaponized,” she said. Ukrainians “leveraged it in ways that were unintentional” and went beyond communications for the military. She cited news reports that “they were using our technology on drones.”

[...]

But relations with the White House have been rocky for the volatile entrepreneur who has urged Americans to vote for Republicans and once ridiculed President Joe Biden as a damp sock puppet in human form. Last week, Ron DeSantis, Floridan’s Republican governor, launched his campaign for president alongside Musk on Twitter.
Det amerikanska försvarsdepartementet anlitar Elon Musks Starlink för att förse Ukraina med bolagets tjänster. Lyckas Pentagon tygla kontrarianen Musk?
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Putin no longer has the money or the kit to sustain a high-tech modern war
The Telegraph skrev:Europe has survived the loss of Putin’s gas in a better shape than most could have imagined a year ago, least of all Putin. Prices have collapsed to €25 MWh from a peak of €304 last August. They are not far above the median price of the last decade. The January TTF contract is €43.

We no longer have to fear a second and even more painful energy shock this winter. Gas storage tanks are already 75pc full in Germany and 74pc in Italy, at least 20 points higher than the seasonal norm.

[...]

The purpose of the cap is to dry up Putin’s revenue stream without causing a global oil shock and a political uprising in Europe. It is working like a charm.

The International Energy Agency says Russian Urals crude traded at average of $52 over the first quarter, half the level of a year ago and a $25-30 discount against Brent.

[...]

Indian and Chinese traders then beat down the price, knowing that he is a distressed seller. “I doubt that Russia is netting more than $20 a barrel given their own cost of production,” said Prof Alan Riley from the Atlantic Council.

Putin cannot fund a war machine on this. Russia’s budget deficit for the first four months of this year ballooned to $40bn, blowing through the target for the whole of 2023.
Det ekonomiska kriget verkar inte gå så bra för Ryssland!

EU-Russia trade balance goes from deficit to surplus
The Brussels Times skrev:Russia's share in the EU's extra-EU exports fell from 4% in February 2022 to 1.8% in March 2023. In the same period, the share of extra-EU imports from Russia fell from 9.5% to 1.9%.

The EU's trade deficit with Russia, which peaked at €18.2 billion in March 2022, more than halved in December 2022 to €6 billion. Three months later, this has now turned into a small surplus of €200 million.
EU importerar allt mindre från Ryssland. Det historiska handelsunderskottet har blivit ett handelsöverskott.

OPEC Has a Russia Problem
CSIS skrev:There is growing speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers (OPEC+) will agree on June 4 to cut production. Brent crude prices fell below $73 per barrel this week, and price declines in recent weeks erased all of the gains since the last voluntary OPEC+ cuts were announced in early April. The Saudi energy minister recently issued a warning to “speculators” betting on deeper declines, which the market interpreted as a signal of potential cuts. Whether OPEC+ announces a steeper production cut or decides to stay the course this weekend, it faces a dilemma. Russia has failed to dial back production as promised in recent months, and maintaining credibility will be difficult without better compliance from Moscow.

[...]

OPEC+ also seems keen to defend a higher price floor. Saudi Arabia is in the early stages of an economic transformation plan that depends on a massive state-led investment push. Its government budget fell into deficit in the first quarter of 2023, despite an increase in non-oil revenue, and Riyadh anticipates large capital expenditures this year. Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven price for 2023 is $81 per barrel, according to the International Monetary Fund. To be sure, Saudi Arabia would have no trouble absorbing budget deficits for several years. The kingdom still has about $410 billion in foreign exchange reserves, sufficient for nearly 30 months of import cover, although its reserves are now at the lowest level in more than a decade. But lower oil revenue certainly complicates Saudi Arabia’s spending plans. An $80 per barrel market is much more comfortable for Saudi Arabia and its partners than $70 per barrel or below. OPEC+ may be more confident that the global economy can absorb slightly higher prices, with economy-wide inflation now less of an acute threat to growth in the United States and other markets.

[...]

The problem for OPEC+ is that deeper production cuts without better Russian compliance would only hurt other producers—and could well disincentivize others from adhering to the cuts if they regard Russia as a free rider. Russia’s pivot in oil sales to India and China has also expanded its market share in those critical centers of demand growth, placing the Gulf producers at a disadvantage. (Gulf producers are exporting more crude to Europe and other markets to replace Russian volumes, but these are regions with flat to declining demand.)
Saudiarabien vill ha höga oljepriser på sikt för att finansiera sin omställning medan Ryssland vill sälja så mycket som möjligt nu för att finansiera kriget.

Saudi pledges big oil cuts in July as OPEC+ extends deal into 2024
Reuters skrev:Saudi's energy ministry said the country's output would drop to 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in July from around 10 million bpd in May, the biggest reduction in years.

"This is a Saudi lollipop," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz told a news conference. "We wanted to ice the cake. We always want to add suspense. We don't want people to try to predict what we do... This market needs stabilisation".

[...]

However, many of these reductions will not be real as the group lowered the targets for Russia, Nigeria and Angola to bring them into line with actual current production levels.

By contrast, the United Arab Emirates was allowed to raise output targets by around 0.2 million bpd to 3.22 million bpd.
Det brukar sägas att djävulen sitter i detaljerna. Hur många länder kommer faktiskt att minska produktionen? Cirka hälften av all olja går till vägtrafik.
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