Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Putin Raises Gas-Cutoff Threat as He Moves to Annex Ukraine Regions
Bloomberg skrev:Some people close to the Kremlin think Russia will ultimately be able to regain the initiative and drive further into Ukraine, possibly taking key cities including Kharkiv and Odesa that it hasn’t been able to seize so far. That would leave Ukraine only a rump of its pre-war self, the people said. While that seems far-fetched given Kyiv’s recent successes on the battlefield, Russian officials are confident their forces can fight Ukraine to a standstill and force some kind of a settlement that confirms at least some of their gains.

There’s little sign the 300,000 mobilized troops, poorly trained and motivated, will be able to turn things around on the battlefield. Military analysts say they are likely to be enough only to further slow Ukraine’s advances. Kyiv has called for more weapons from its allies, including tanks, longer-range missiles and combat aircraft, but the US and Europe so far have been cautious about expanding the range of arms supplied.
Putin tycks verkligen vara inbilsk. Samtidigt visar Rybars senaste karta att ryska trupper har omringats i Lyman - efter att ha blivit beordrade att stanna där. :roll:

New $1.1 bln U.S. arms package for Ukraine in process -U.S. officials
Reuters skrev:The package will include HIMARS launcher systems, accompanying munitions, various types of counter drone systems and radar systems, along with spares, training and technical support, a source briefed on the plan said.
Ukraina får äntligen fler Himars-enheter. I skrivande stund har Ukraina fått åtminstone 16 Himars-enheter från USA samt 11 M270-enheter från Europa.

Även Frankrike trappar upp det militära stödet:

Kuleba: Ukraine, France take step forward in new Caesar self-propelled howitzer deliveries
Ukrinform skrev:"We feel the daily effective support of France both at the political level and at the level of providing security assistance to Ukraine. In this regard, we have taken another step forward in solving the issue of supplying Ukraine with new Caesar howitzers which have already demonstrated high efficiency on the battlefield," Kuleba said at a joint briefing with Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs of France Catherine Colonna in Kyiv, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
France plans to train Ukrainian soldiers in Poland
Le Monde skrev:This is a significant step in France's support for Ukraine, which is sometimes considered too timid, especially by countries on Europe's eastern flank. The Ministry of the Armed Forces is said to have chosen to support the training mission for Ukrainian soldiers decided on this summer by the European Union (EU) and has set the main principles of its participation. French military personnel are expected to set up in Poland, where they will provide five weeks of training in dedicated army camps. The general staff has allegedly indicated its desire to move quickly and be operational before the end of 2022. Questioned by Le Monde, the ministry said that "consultations are still underway."
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Why the capture of a Russian T-90M tank matters
The Economist skrev:The T90M—also known as Proryv-3, meaning “breakthrough”—is Russia’s best active tank. It is an upgrade of the earlier T-90 model which was introduced in the early 1990s. Both models, of which the army has several hundred, are far superior to the Soviet tanks still widely used by both Russia and Ukraine. T-90Ms were not deployed during the initial invasion. Some analysts suspected that they were being reserved for a possible war with NATO—until they appeared a couple of months into the war.

[...]

The T-90M is not invulnerable: Ukrainian forces have already destroyed one. But capturing one is far more useful. Being able to disassemble and analyse a top-of-the-range Russian tank will make it easier to defeat more T90-Ms in future. As well as its high-tech defences, the captured tank has the latest Russian offensive weaponry, including a computerised fire-control system and a gun capable of firing guided projectiles. The captured T-90M specimen will give military analysts a chance to assess Russia’s claims about these capabilities. And as the war in Ukraine grinds on, the intelligence bonanza will continue. The West has already gained access to a variety of Russian radar, intelligence gathering and command vehicles with their valuable secrets. Fleeing Russian soldiers ought to be more careful about what they leave behind.
USA tackar och tar emot.

Military expert on Iranian Shahed-136 drones in service with Russia
The New Voice of Ukraine skrev:Judging by the appearance of Shahed-136, which can be seen in the available video and photo materials, in particular from Iran, no video camera or any other sensor is seen on this drone. Given this, it can be assumed that satellite navigation is its only source of guidance.

That is, it is guided exclusively to stationary objects by the coordinates it receives from satellite navigation systems, such as GPS or GLONASS. And given that Iran is under sanctions and apparently does not have access to Western components with conventional military GPS, it uses an ordinary civilian GPS sensor that can be purchased on AliExpress. After all, there is a high probability that the Iranian drone was assembled from electronic components available on the market.

Even the engine for the Shahed-136 is available on AliExpress. I’m saying all this for you to understand that this is not some kind of superweapon.
De iranska drönarna är inget supervapen, men kvantitet är en kvalitet i sig själv. Västvärlden kanske borde satsa mer på billiga drönare.

Varför protesterar inte ryssar mot mobiliseringen, till skillnad från exempelvis Iran? Sam Greene har en lång Twitter-tråd om ämnet.

Brussels Playbook: Pipeline attacks — Sanctions scoop — EU-Israel reset
POLITICO skrev:In the past, European leaders have been all too willing to ignore attacks by foreign governments on their own territory — think of the repeated explosions in arms depots in Bulgaria, the murder in broad daylight in Berlin’s Tiergarten park in 2019, which a court said was ordered by the Russian state, or the Polonium and Novichok poisonings in the U.K., which all were followed by little more than a slap on the wrist. Not exactly discouraging to any hostile nation that wants to cause havoc in Europe.

[...]

For a union with some 450 million inhabitants and one of the world’s largest economies, it’s a testament to its weakness that when it is attacked, it has no way of investigating let alone retaliating, but instead has to rely on its national members. As my colleagues asked this week, put simply: When will Europe learn to defend itself?

[...]

COMMISSION TO PROPOSE OIL PRICE CAP, OTHER RUSSIA SANCTIONS: EU ambassadors will today at 2:30 p.m. be briefed by the Commission on a new sanctions package on Russia, senior officials and diplomats told Playbook.

[...]

Sanctions sacrifice: Under the deal, the EU will soften its sanctions on other products, effectively removing the shipping ban on Russian fertilizers, cement and other products, officials tell Playbook. “It is do ut des,” one official said.
Intressekonflikterna inom EU sänder tvetydiga signaler - som vanligt.

Analysis: Russia's Ukraine gas transit sanction threat a fresh blow for Europe
Reuters skrev:If Moscow carries out a threat to sanction Ukrainian energy firm Naftogaz one of the last functioning Russian gas supply routes to Europe could be shut, exacerbating the energy crisis just as the crucial winter heating season begins.

Naftogaz initiated a new arbitration proceeding against Gazprom (GAZP.MM) earlier this month, saying the Russian company has not paid transit fees for sending its gas to Europe via pipelines that cross Ukraine.

[...]

Leaks detected on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline this week make a resumption of flows on that route unlikely after they were cut to a fraction of capacity and finally suspended last month with Moscow citing the need for maintenance.
Vilket sammanträffande att naturgasledningen Nord Stream 1 attackerades precis före detta hot!
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 09 september 2022 19:23
Enceladus skrev: fredag 09 september 2022 14:09 Lyckligtvis har Salvini bara hälften så stort stöd som Meloni i opinionsundersökningarna.
Som sagt, opinionsundersökningar kan man torka sig med. Först ska vi ha ett val, sedan ska vi har en regeringsbildning.
Italy's Meloni tells Ukraine it can count on her
Reuters skrev:Nationalist leader Giorgia Meloni, set to become Italy's next prime minister, has pledged her full support for Kyiv after receiving congratulations from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for her election victory.

[...]

Meloni has been one of the few Italian political leaders to wholeheartedly endorse outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi's decision to ship weapons to Ukraine, even though she was in opposition to his government.

By contrast, Meloni's two political allies, the League and Forza Italia, which were both in Draghi's coalition, have been much more ambivalent, reflecting their historically close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Meloni fick cirka tre gånger så många röster som Salvini i söndagens val, till och med större skillnad än väntat. Därmed är det italienska stödet säkrat.

Italy Secures Enough Supplies for Winter Without Russia Gas
Bloomberg skrev:A boost of expected gas deliveries from Algeria and Egypt will be able to cover the remaining supplies Italy still gets from Russia, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the estimates are private. Italy originally expected to achieve independence from Russian gas by spring 2025, but it must expand its regasification capacity to ensure a repeat of this winter’s results, the people said.

[...]

Russian flows have been essential to fill gas storage to 90% before the start of winter. The next season “could be worse if the we don’t add regasification capacity” by next spring, Eni SpA’s Chief Executive Officer Claudio Descalzi, said at a Sept. 24 at a conference in Rome.
Pessimisterna har haft fel nästan varje gång i detta krig.

Russia probably bombed Nord Stream pipeline with underwater drone, says defence source
The Times skrev:The most likely scenario, according to the UK source, was Russia secretly delivered an autonomous underwater vehicle with a payload to separate locations on the pipelines built to carry Russian natural gas to Europe.

[...]

“If it is them [the Russians], I think they’ve pulled out a blinder. Russia has absolutely no influence over the West except for this one gift — gas,” the source added.

[...]

The German news website Der Spiegel reported last night that the CIA had warned Germany about a possible Russian attack on the pipelines in the summer. Separately, British military chiefs have been warning for years that Russia could attempt to disrupt underwater communication cables.
Kan detta vara ännu ett ryskt självmål? Putin verkar göra allt för att förstöra Rysslands framtid.

Dessvärre har metan ungefär 30 gånger starkare växthuseffekt än koldioxid, vilket innebär att klimatpåverkan är mycket större än om gasen hade bränts upp.

EU executive proposes eighth batch of sanctions against Russia
Reuters skrev:The European Union executive proposed on Wednesday an eighth round of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, including tighter trade restrictions, more individual blacklistings and an oil price cap for third countries.

[...]

Poland's EU ambassador said the proposed individual sanctions would include Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church and a close Kremlin ally, after previous attempts to blacklist him in the EU were blocked by Hungary.
Kan Orban tvingas att kompromissa mer om Ryssland efter det italienska valresultatet?

US poised to provide $1.1 billion more in aid to Ukraine
AP News skrev:The U.S. will provide an additional $1.1 billion in aid to Ukraine, with funding for about 18 more advanced rocket systems and other weapons to counter drones that Russia has been using against Ukrainian troops, according to U.S. officials.
Ukraina får äntligen mer av det amerikanska undervapnet!
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 28 september 2022 19:38 Dessvärre har metan ungefär 30 gånger starkare växthuseffekt än koldioxid, vilket innebär att klimatpåverkan är mycket större än om gasen hade bränts upp.
Nord Stream gas leaks may be biggest ever, with warning of ‘large climate risk’
The Guardian skrev:The Danish Energy Agency said on Wednesday that the pipelines contained 778m cubic metres of natural gas in total – the equivalent of 32% of Danish annual CO2 emissions.
Putin har väl aldrig brytt sig om miljöproblem, även om han ibland påstår motsatsen:
Hufvudstadsbladet skrev:– Alla vet att vindkraft är bra, men tänker man alls på fåglarna? Hur många dör? De [vindkraftverken] skakar så mycket att maskarna kommer upp ur marken. På riktigt, det är inte ett skämt. Det är en allvarlig följd av modern energiproduktionsteknik. Jag säger inte att den inte behöver utvecklas, men vi får inte glömma de problem den är förknippad med.
Kazakhstan and Georgia welcome Russians fleeing conscription
Financial Times skrev:Since Putin issued the mobilisation decree on September 21, about 98,000 Russians have crossed into Kazakhstan, the ministry said. Russians do not need to obtain a visa to enter the country, or even carry their passports.

[...]

In August, more than 260,000 Russians entered Georgia either as visitors or to stay longer term, up from 45,000 in the same month a year ago, according to the interior ministry.
Flyende ryssar kan vara både en tillgång och en belastning. En sak är säker: det finns många av dem.

The 90km journey that changed the course of the war in Ukraine
Financial Times skrev:Built in the US by Lockheed Martin and first shipped to Ukraine in June, the high-precision, long-range rocket launchers have been the single-most decisive piece of western weaponry since Ukrainian troops prevented Putin’s forces from achieving their target of a swift capture of Kyiv.

Initially, Himars were envisaged as a way to hit back against Russian artillery, as Moscow fell back on a centuries-old battle strategy of shelling and bombardment. But they have become integral to a plan of destroying key elements of the Russian defence, such as command centres, ammunition dumps, supply hubs and bridges in preparation for counter-offensive actions.

With Ukrainian operators trained by western troops, and targets supplied by western intelligence services, they were set to task peppering the Russian rear. In three months, Ukraine’s 16 US-supplied Himars units hit more than 400 targets.

[...]

As Russia scrambles to find, train and send fresh recruits to the front, Ukraine’s army is trying to press home the advantage. Seeking to maintain momentum, its soldiers have already carved out more territory in the north-east, crossing the Oskil in various locations. And in the south, a simultaneous counter-offensive, though far more difficult and bloody, continues to eke out gains and push Russia’s line back towards the critical city of Kherson.
Tydligen finns det undervapen...

‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray
The New York Times skrev:Mom, we haven’t seen a single fascist here. ... This war is based on a false pretense. No one needed it. We got here and people were living normal lives. Very well, like in Russia. And now they have to live in basements. The old lady who lived near us had to live in the cellar. Can you imagine?
Det är en enorm fördel att ha något att kriga för.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 28 september 2022 19:38 Italy Secures Enough Supplies for Winter Without Russia Gas
Bloomberg skrev:A boost of expected gas deliveries from Algeria and Egypt will be able to cover the remaining supplies Italy still gets from Russia, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the estimates are private. Italy originally expected to achieve independence from Russian gas by spring 2025, but it must expand its regasification capacity to ensure a repeat of this winter’s results, the people said.

[...]

Russian flows have been essential to fill gas storage to 90% before the start of winter. The next season “could be worse if the we don’t add regasification capacity” by next spring, Eni SpA’s Chief Executive Officer Claudio Descalzi, said at a Sept. 24 at a conference in Rome.
Pessimisterna har haft fel nästan varje gång i detta krig.
Den 27 september ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,20 procentenheter till 88,17 procent och Italiens gaslager med 0,25 procentenheter till 90,04 procent. Därmed har Italien nått sitt mål en månad tidigt, till och med tidigare än förra veckans prognos:

Italy to Reach 90% Gas Storage One Month Early, Snam CEO Says
Bloomberg skrev:Italy’s gas storage level will reach 90% by the end of next week, Snam SpA Chief Executive Officer Stefano Venier said Saturday at a conference in Rome.

That would mean the country will reach its target a month ahead of the deadline set by the outgoing government of Prime Minister Mario Draghi.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 6 468 enheter, varav 1 190 stridsvagnar. Här är alla tresiffriga förluster:

1. BMP-2(K) (500 förluster)
2. KamAZ 6x6 (454 förluster)
3. Ural-4320 (427 förluster)
4. BTR-82A(M) (252 förluster)
5. MT-LB (251 förluster)
6. T-72B3 (185 förluster)
7. T-72B (177 förluster)
8. T-72B3 Obr. 2016 (163 förluster)
9. BMP-1(P) (157 förluster)
10. BMP-3 (142 förluster)
11. BMD-2 (137 förluster)
12. T-80BV (111 förluster)
13. MT-LBVM(K) (109 förluster)
14. Ural-4320 tanker (104 förluster)

Hur ska Ryssland mobilisera när så mycket utrustning har redan förlorats?

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28
ISW skrev:Russian military leadership has likely failed to set information conditions for the potential defeat of the Russian grouping in Lyman, despite increasingly concerned discourse among Russian milbloggers regarding the potential for a Ukrainian envelopment of Lyman.
Som väntat har Putin ingen plan för nästa nederlag.
Enceladus
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Russia’s Stripped Its Western Borders to Feed the Fight in Ukraine
Foreign Policy skrev:Of an original estimated 30,000 Russian troops that once faced the Baltic countries and southern Finland, as many as 80 percent of them have been diverted to Ukraine, according to three senior European defense officials in the region, leaving Russia with only a skeleton crew in what was once its densest concentration of military force facing NATO territory.

[...]

Two European defense officials estimated there could be as few as 6,000 of the original 30,000 Russian ground forces left in Kaliningrad and near the Baltic region. Although that number could change if Russia brings new conscripts into the fold to backfill its forces being ground down in Ukraine, those conscripts are likely to be severely undertrained and poorly equipped.
För inte så länge sedan påstod Tysklands försvarschef att Putin kan öppna en andra front i Kaliningrad eller Östersjön. Uttalandet möttes förstås av stark kritik.

China seeks new partners for lunar and deep space exploration
SpaceNews skrev:The elephant in the room was however not mentioned. The ILRS roadmap was presented as a joint project by nominally equal partners China and Russia in June 2021 in St. Petersburg during another International Astronautical Federation (IAF) event. There was no Russian presence at IAC due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

[...]

It is hard to say if the lack of representation of Russian involvement reflects a change in Beijing’s thinking or a sensitivity to the current geopolitical context. But China appears to face a dilemma for its grandest space ambitions so far.

[...]

Given Russia’s current standing in the world, a partnership “may prevent new, and possibly more auspicious, partners” such as European countries, working with China, Aliberti notes.
Kan detta vara slutet för Roscosmos?

S. Korea to Send Weapons Worth $2.9 Bln to Ukraine
Sada El balad skrev:The price for these supplies, which will be one of the largest during the conflict in Ukraine, will be paid by the US side, and the weapons will be delivered to one of the Czech arms companies, then they will be transferred as a gift to Ukraine.

The talk, according to the newspaper, is about anti-aircraft missile systems and munitions, in particular about Chiron, which is used to repel attacks by low-flying aircraft.
Det lönar sig att ha många allierade! Med Nasams, Iris T, Gepard och nu Chiron får Ukraina äntligen ett luftvärn värt namnet.

Payments have been made, but arms deliveries are not being done also by ally countries – Armenian PM
Armenpress skrev:“In all directions, in all cases wherever possible, unfortunately, they have some success also in terms of the relations with our allies, wherever possible they are attempting to do so that no arms and ammunition are supplied to Armenia. We have cases when 100 million dollars have been paid, but the delivery commitments to Armenia are not being fulfilled, including by the ally countries. This is, of course, a sad reality. And we need to deeply analyze this situation”, he said at the Cabinet meeting.
Armenien behöver däremot skaffa bättre "allierade"...
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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The Central Bank announced a reduction in the volume of international reserves (September 29, 2022)
BNI Digital skrev:The international reserves of the Russian Federation as of September 23 amounted to $549.7 billion, over the week they decreased by 1.4% or $8 billion. This follows from the statistics presented on the website of the Central Bank. It follows from the regulator’s comment that the changes occurred as a result of a negative revaluation.

[...]

According to the Central Bank, the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation reached a historical maximum of $643.2 billion on February 18, 2022, but already on February 25, the volume of reserves decreased to $629.4 billion, and on March 4 to $608.9 billion.
Rysslands valutareserver når en ny bottennivå. Sedan invasionen började har reserverna sjunkit från 643,2 till 549,7 miljarder dollar, en minskning med 93,5 miljarder dollar (drygt 14,5 procent). Som bekant har ungefär hälften av det ursprungliga beloppet frysts.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 6 526 enheter, varav 1 211 stridsvagnar. Snart finns det ingen utrustning kvar för alla inkallade ryssar!

Enligt Rybar har Lyman äntligen omringats:
Rob Lee skrev:This is why we're seeing mobilized reservists in the 1st Tank Army being deployed to Ukraine without training.
Putin hoppas fortfarande på Steiners anfall...

Explosionerna skedde nära svensk-polska elkabeln – specialister inkallade
SVT Nyheter skrev:Polenkabeln togs i drift på 1990-talet och är enligt Svenska kraftnät viktig för att kunna importera el under tider på året då den svenska produktionen inte är tillräcklig.
Till skillnad från Nord Stream 1 och 2 fyller denna kabel fortfarande en funktion.

Russia’s war in Ukraine upends Europe’s space plans
POLITICO skrev:Russia's invasion of Ukraine has the European Space Agency pushing for a record budget increase in an effort to boost autonomy and end reliance on Moscow's space technology, agency Director General Josef Aschbacher told POLITICO.
Kan Europa äntligen få ett rymdprogram i världsklass?
Enceladus
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Energy crisis sires new European order: a strong Italy and ailing Germany
Reuters skrev:But in the past eight years, the two countries have diverged: Germany has doubled down on Russian gas and became increasingly dependent while Italy has sought to hedge its bets.

[...]

Rome withdrew its support for Gazprom's $40 billion South Stream project - which was meant to transport gas from Russia to Hungary, Austria and Italy while bypassing Ukraine – also in response to the sanctions. South Stream was abandoned by Eni later that year, before it was mothballed by Moscow.

Italy instead turned its sights to the construction of the smaller Trans Adriatic Pipeline from Azerbaijan via Greece and Albania.
Som man bäddar får man ligga.

German agencies fear Nord Stream 1 may be unusable forever - Tagesspiegel
Reuters skrev:If leaks in the two lines of Nord Stream 1 are not repaired quickly, large volumes of salt water will flow into the pipelines and cause corrosion, the paper cited the sources as saying.
Det brukar sägas att nöden är uppfinningarnas moder. Det finns alternativ till rysk gas!

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29
ISW skrev:An independent Russian polling organization, the Levada Center, found that almost half of polled Russians are anxious about mobilization, but that support for Russian military actions declined only slightly to 44%.
Vanliga ryssar kan inte längre ignorera kriget. Rybars senaste karta visar hur Lyman omringas av ukrainska trupper. Vidare ökar stödet för Ukraina i Tyskland.
Enceladus
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Enligt en färsk undersökning av satellitbilder har Ryssland ungefär 800 färre stridsvagnar i sina lager än för ett år sedan. En tidigare analys av samma person uppskattade antalet stridsvagnar i lager till omkring 6 000 stycken, varav hälften kan räddas. Utöver dessa har Ryssland knappt 3 000 operativa stridsvagnar. Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 6 567 enheter, varav 1 224 stridsvagnar. Därmed tar stridsvagnarna helt slut om tre år i samma tempo.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30
ISW skrev:Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the illegal Russian annexation of four Ukrainian territories on September 30 without clearly defining the borders of those claimed territories.

[...]

Ukrainian forces will likely capture or encircle Lyman within the next 72 hours.
Enligt sociala medier har Ukraina redan avancerat till utkanterna av Kreminna i Luhansk oblast. Vidare uppger CNN att Ryssland kontrollerar mindre ukrainsk mark nu än i krigets första dagar. Sedan slutet av februari har Ryssland tappat mer mark än vad landet har erövrat, och den trenden ser ut att fortsätta.

The Baltic States and Canada are for Ukraine’s accession to NATO
Buna Times skrev:The foreign ministers of the Baltic countries and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada said that their countries are in favor of Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Alliance as soon as possible.
Igår lämnade Ukraina in en snabbansökan till försvarsalliansen Nato, och fyra länder har redan gett sitt stöd. Dessutom tänker Ukraina inte förhandla med Ryssland så länge som Putin är landets president. Samtidigt meddelade Putin att Ryssland annekterar ytterligare fyra ukrainska regioner, utan att ens kontrollera någon av regionerna i sin helhet. Därmed vill inte heller Putin förhandla.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russia, meet the American replacement for cluster munitions
CJ skrev:Giving M30A1 to Ukraine means that the US is reasonably sure 🇷🇺 is running low on heavy armored vehicles, and will be in static defense positions. 🇷🇺’s infantry is toast.
Dåliga nyheter för de inkallade ryssarna. Ryssland har i praktiken förlorat om Ukraina är i position att använda Himars taktiskt snarare än strategiskt.

What our unit did for Kharkiv offensive to succeed
Максим skrev:Weeks before the operation, we captured Russian TMM-3m2. These Russian bridge deploying vehicles were used in this operation. They are now effectively serving Ukrainian army needs.
Fältbroar visar sig ha en avgörande roll i detta krig.

How the War in Ukraine Might End
The New Yorker skrev:Dozens of outside actors have been pulled into the conflict: the thirty countries of NATO, on the side of Ukraine; Belarus, for now, on the side of Russia. “This is a large European war, something we thought we would not see,” Goemans said. “It’s trench warfare, like World War One. And it’s for the existence of Ukraine as a state.” The implications are enormous. “This will shape the rest of the twenty-first century. If Russia loses, or it doesn’t get what it wants, it will be a different Russia afterward. If Russia wins, it will be a different Europe afterward.” The scope and complications of the war foreclose a quick resolution. “This is what made World War One so big, this is what made World War Two so big,” Goemans said. “It’s not just ‘I want a piece of territory because my ethnic brethren are there.’ It’s—all this shit.”

[...]

“Branislav is very worried,” Goemans told me, “and he is not a scaredy-cat.” Goemans was also worried, though his hypothetical time line was more extended. He believes that the new Russian reinforcements, however ill-trained and ill-equipped, and the onset of an early winter will pause the Ukrainian campaign and save the Russians, for the moment. “People think it’s going to be over quickly, but, unfortunately, war doesn’t work like that,” he said. But he also believes that Ukraine will resume its offensive in the spring, at which point the same dynamic and the same dangers will be back in play. “For a war to end,” Goemans said, “the minimum demands of at least one of the sides must change.” This is the first rule of war termination. And we have not yet reached a point where war aims have changed enough for a peace deal to be possible.
Har vi ett europeiskt storkrig framför oss? Krigsteoretikern Slantchev befarar det värsta:
Branislav L. Slantchev skrev:Bottom line here is that the previous nuclear confrontations do not inspire lots of confidence in me. I’m genuinely worried that we might crack.

We shouldn’t. As I said when the war began, this is the defining moment for the 21st century, and we cannot afford to submit to Putin’s threats or even actual use of nukes. What’s the point of having the most formidable military in the world if it fails to defend our way of life? Because I happen to think that the bad predictions about the consequences of a Russian victory are correct. And if Putin gets away with this, we will not be able to draw any red lines to him or others. More instability and annexations will follow, and our world will rapidly shrink.
Ukraine says it encircles Russian troops at Lyman stronghold
Reuters skrev:Ukraine said on Saturday it had encircled thousands of Russian troops around the eastern town of Lyman, in a battlefield rebuttal to the Kremlin a day after it proclaimed the region to be part of Russia.

The capture of Lyman would be a major setback for Russia after President Vladimir Putin proclaimed the annexation of the Donetsk region, along with three others, at a ceremony in Moscow on Friday condemned by Kyiv and the West as a farce.
Avslutningsvis några goda nyheter: Reuters bekräftar att Lyman har omringats.
Enceladus
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Germany says it will supply Ukraine with air defence system in days
Reuters skrev:Germany will deliver the first of four advanced IRIS-T air defence systems to Ukraine in the coming days to help ward off drone attacks, its defence minister Christine Lambrecht said during an unannounced visit to Odessa on Saturday.
För varje dag blir Ukraina starkare och Ryssland svagare. Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 6 615 enheter, varav 1 233 stridsvagnar.

Putin overruled his top security service in prisoner swap with Ukraine
The Washington Post skrev:The prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine in late September was approved by Russian President Vladimir Putin over the objections of his top security service, the FSB, which had concerns about a public backlash in Russia, according to senior Ukrainian and U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

[...]

“The FSB was completely against it,” said a senior Ukrainian official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. “They realized the consequences of how the deal would look to the public.”

[...]

A senior State Department official said Medvedchuk’s release exposed the premium Putin placed on protecting an elite politician who served the Kremlin’s interests. “It is telling that Putin elected to trade his crony and one of his long-term proxies in Ukraine, Medvedchuk, for the heroes of Mariupol,” the official said. “It was very much celebrated in Ukraine to have those valiant fighters back home, and very much reviled in Moscow to see what Putin truly cares about.”
Putins nepotism blir Rysslands fall.

Gazprom Halts Gas Supplies to Italy in Latest Energy Battle
Bloomberg skrev:Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom PJSC suspended natural gas deliveries to Italy in an apparent scuffle over regulation in Austria, escalating the energy crisis in Europe.

[...]

Although Italy has been weaning itself off Russian gas, Saturday’s development highlights how vulnerable European countries are to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s repeated moves to choke off energy to the continent. The standoff intensified this week after massive leaks erupted in a key pipeline to Europe that some nations blamed on sabotage.

[...]

Gazprom Saturday also reduced the daily gas flow levels to Moldova through the Ukraine and blamed the reduction on Ukraine.
Putin är tydligen inte nöjd med Salvinis usla valresultat...

Ukrainian forces perform victory dance after liberating eastern city of Lyman
The Guardian skrev:Russia suffered a humiliating military defeat on Saturday when Ukrainian troops liberated the key eastern city of Lyman, with videos showing them raising a blue and yellow national flag and performing a victory dance.

[...]

The debacle came hours after Putin announced on Friday that the city, which is a part of the Donetsk region, was Russia’s “for ever”. In a ceremony in the Kremlin he announced the province’s annexation, together with the territories of Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

[...]

The sudden collapse of Russia’s forces in Lyman opens up the possibility of further Ukrainian gains. Ukrainian battalions can push north towards the town of Svatove or east to Kreminna, Haidai, the Luhansk governor, said. Beyond that are a cluster of cities which Russia seized over the summer after long pulverising battles – Sievierodonetsk, Rubizhne and Lysychansk.
Motoffensiven fortsätter! Enligt sociala medier har Ukraina inlett en massiv beskjutning av ryska positioner i Kreminna, Rubizjne, Lysytjansk och Sievjerodonetsk. Kadyrov lägger skulden på generalöversten Lapin:
Rob Lee skrev:He confirms Ukrainian intelligence's claim that Lapin was put in charge of the Western Military District/West grouping troops, and says that Lapin has been in Luhansk instead of commanding closer to Lyman while his staff moved to Starobilsk.
Enceladus
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Germany, Denmark, Norway to give Ukraine 16 Slovak Zuzana-2 howitzers
Reuters skrev:Germany, Denmark and Norway will buy 16 Slovak Zuzana-2 howitzers for Ukraine, the German Defence Ministry said on Sunday, with delivery to begin next year.
För varje dag blir Ukraina starkare och Ryssland svagare. Har Ryssland ens fortfarande ett artilleriövertag?

US Eyes Regular Aid Payments to Ukraine, Pushes EU to Do More
Bloomberg skrev:The US is willing to support Ukraine’s finances with $1.5 billion a month in aid throughout the war against Russia and is pushing its European allies to commit to similar amounts, according to people familiar with the matter.
USA intensifierar det ekonomiska stödet till Ukraina. Desto saktare går det för EU, trots att Ukraina är ett kandidatland.

The presidents of nine NATO member countries supported Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance and called for increased aid
Militarnyi skrev:The Presidents of nine NATO member countries from Central and Eastern Europe released a joint statement in which they supported Ukraine’s aspirations for membership in the North Atlantic Alliance and once again condemned Russian aggression.
Allt fler länder stödjer Ukrainas ansökan om medlemskap i Nato, även om stödet än så länge är symboliskt.

Hoten från Putin avslöjar hans stora svaghet
DN skrev:Samarkand för två veckor sedan. För Vladimir Putin var toppmötet i den uzbekiska staden tänkt att manifestera vänskap, som kontrast mot ”russofobin” och ”fientligheten” i väst. Enligt Kremls propaganda stöder ju majoriteten av mänskligheten Ryssland. Men den påstådda värmen var förbytt mot kyla. Sammankomsten slutade i förnedring för den ryske härskaren.

[...]

Kärnvapenhotet är isande, och syftar till att vara just det. Men notera vad som inträffade när den amerikanska statsledningen varnade Kreml för att USA inte kommer tveka att svara. Genast strömmade förnekelsepropaganda ut från olika regimkanaler. Några kärnvapen var tydligen inte aktuella.

Putin må hata USA, men en inte obetydlig del av hatet hänger tätt samman med den för Kreml smärtsamma vetskapen om att amerikanerna är så mycket starkare än Ryssland: militärt, ekonomiskt, teknologiskt.

[...]

Ryssland har totalt underskattat Ukrainas motståndskraft. Även de grövsta hot som Putin kastar ur sig ser inte ut att ha någon avskräckande verkan på den ukrainska stridsviljan. Den är markant högre än hos de korrumperade, eftersatta och demoraliserade ryska förbanden, som just nu lider massiva förluster.

Kremls utpressningslogik fungerar även allt sämre på Västeuropa. Putin lyckas inte splittra EU och USA, utan möter snarare ett alltmer sammansvetsat motstånd.
Den senaste tidens händelseutveckling är ett totalt misslyckande för Putin.

Petraeus: US would destroy Russia’s troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine
The Guardian skrev:The US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet – if Russian president Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons in the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday.
Inte ens kärnvapenhotet biter.
Enceladus
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As Russian Troops Flee Lyman, Ukrainians Rejoice—and Help Themselves to Russian Supplies
WSJ skrev:The last Russian forces drove out of the city the previous night, trying to avoid getting encircled by the advancing Ukrainian troops. Not all the Russians made it out. Burning Russian vehicles and sprawled bodies of dead Russian soldiers remain on the roadsides outside the city.

[...]

While no Russian soldiers and only a few abandoned Russian military vehicles were visible inside Lyman on Sunday, it wasn’t clear what proportion of the thousands of Russian troops made it out of encirclement when the city was abandoned overnight. A large pocket east of Lyman toward the town of Zarichne hasn’t been cleared yet, and Ukrainian artillery could be heard pounding in that direction.

[...]

On the other side of Lyman, at a stretch of the road that passes through a thick pine forest, the twisted remains of seven Russian vehicles testified to a recent Ukrainian ambush. Nine bodies of young Russian soldiers lay on the roadsides, two hugging each other in unnatural contortions, another, his skin waxlike pale, lying on his back with his fists clenched. Nearby, amid antitank mines and other ordnance, a severed hand was perched on the asphalt, a wedding ring on one of the three remaining fingers.
Enligt Rybar har även Zarichne och Torske befriats. Samtidigt fortsätter Ukraina att avancera mot Kreminna. Tydligen har Ryssland inte hunnit upprätta försvarslinjer i dessa trakter. Det går inte heller så bra för Ryssland i Cherson-området. Enligt sociala medier har striderna redan nått Dudchany.
Enceladus
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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 2
ISW skrev:Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner Private Military Company financier Evgeniy Prigozhin have further damaged the Kremlin’s vulnerable narratives during and after the fall of Lyman. Kadyrov published a hyperbolic rant on October 1 in which he accused the Russian military command of failing to promptly respond to the deteriorating situation around Lyman and stated that Russia needs to liberate the annexed four oblasts with all available means including low-yield nuclear weapons.[12] Prigozhin reiterated Kadyrov’s critiques of the Russian military leadership. The West‘s focus on Kadyrov’s nuclear threat obscured the true importance of these statements.
Kadyrov och Prigozhin har Rysslands största privata arméer, möjligtvis med undantag för Putin själv. Rysslands diktator behöver akta sig för dessa herrar.

Nu har Borova också befriats. Kofman kritiserar Ryssland för att blint fokusera på Bakhmut när flera fronter kollapsar:
Michael Kofman skrev:Also they have forces pointlessly attacking at Bakhmut, because Putin wants Donetsk, even though trying to advance on that axis makes no discernible military sense.
Enligt uppgift är det Prigozhins egna styrkor som attackerar Bakhmut. Hans styrkor lyder som bekant inte under militären.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1
ISW skrev:Russian forces conducted a failed ground attack on Kozacha Lopan in northern Kharkiv Oblast on October 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground attack on Kozacha Lopan, 5km from the Kharkiv Oblast-Russia border.[9] Such attacks indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely retains the aim of regaining control of territory beyond the oblasts he has illegally annexed and is willing to allocate Russian military assets to such offensive actions rather than dedicating them to defending against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Donbas.
Som tur är för Ukraina tycks Putin vilja ha allt eller inget alls. Idag firar Tyskland sin återförening den 3 oktober 1990. Kan Putin uppleva Ukrainas återförening?

Greece-Bulgaria pipeline starts operations to boost non-Russian gas flows
Euronews skrev:"This pipeline is a game changer. It's a game changer for Bulgaria and for Europe's energy security. And it means freedom. It means freedom from dependency on Russian gas," Ursula von der Leyen said during an inauguration ceremony in Sofia attended by the leaders of Bulgaria, Greece, Azerbaijan, Romania, Serbia and North Macedonia.

[...]

With an initial capacity of 3 bcm per year and plans to later raise this to 5 bcm, the pipeline could provide non-Russian gas to neighbouring Serbia, North Macedonia, Romania and further to Moldova and Ukraine.
Samtidigt minskar Europas beroende av rysk gas ytterligare.
Enceladus
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‘Where did they disappear to?’: Russian MP says 1.5 mln military uniforms are missing
Novaya Gazeta Europe skrev:Russia’s MP for Zabaykalsky region lieutenant general Andrey Gurulev has said that 1.5 million sets of military uniform had gone missing, reports local outlet Tayga.info.

“I still don’t understand where 1.5 million sets [of uniform], which had been kept at personnel reception points, ended up. Today, we have either problems with uniforms, or something else happens. All of these things were there, where did they disappear to? No one can explain this to me in any way at all anywhere!” he said.
Samtidigt har priset på skottsäkra västar ökat med flera tusen procent i Ryssland. :roll:

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 6 647 enheter, varav 1 242 stridsvagnar. Här är alla tresiffriga förluster:

1. BMP-2(K) (510 förluster)
2. KamAZ 6x6 (459 förluster)
3. Ural-4320 (438 förluster)
4. BTR-82A(M) (262 förluster)
5. MT-LB (259 förluster)
6. T-72B3 (198 förluster)
7. T-72B (181 förluster)
8. T-72B3 Obr. 2016 (168 förluster)
9. BMP-1(P) (162 förluster)
10. BMP-3 (152 förluster)
11. BMD-2 (139 förluster)
12. T-80BV (121 förluster)
13. MT-LBVM(K) (112 förluster)
14. Ural-4320 tanker (109 förluster)
15. GAZ Tigr-M (101 förluster)

Gazprom: Nord Stream leaks stop, gas supply could resume on single line
Reuters skrev:Nord Stream 1 reported a significant pressure drop on both of its lines, presumed to be caused by ruptures, while Nord Stream 2 reported a similar sharp pressure drop in its 'A' line.

Gazprom said Nord Stream 2's 'B' line could still export gas to Europe, if a decision were made to start deliveries.
Vilken överraskning!

In bid for new long-range rockets, Ukraine offers US targeting oversight
CNN skrev:The remarkable transparency essentially gives the US veto power over Ukrainian targeting of Russia and is meant to convince the administration that providing the critical weapons would not lead to strikes inside Russian territory, which the US fears would escalate the war and draw it directly into a conflict with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

[...]

The new rockets would also allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Crimea to target the launching points of Russia’s Iranian drones, something it cannot currently do, according to an American source familiar with the country’s requests.

[...]

Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian land and Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling has done little to deter western support for Ukraine’s attacks against them to re-claim territory and many officials point to Ukraine’s repeated strikes in Crimea – taken by Russia in 2014 – as evidence that Russia’s threats are bluster.
Ukraina ger inte upp hoppet om ATACMS.
Enceladus
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Ukrainian troops liberate Kharkiv’s Borova, Shyikivka near Luhansk Oblast’s NW border – media (updated)
Euromaidan Press skrev:Footage emerged on several Ukrainian Telegram channels shows the Ukrainian troops entering the village of Shyikivka, Kharkiv Oblast, which is situated near the northwestern section of the administrative border of Luhansk Oblast:
Ukraina befriar fler orter öster om floden Oskil och närmar sig Luhansk oblast.

Kremlin: Russia to consult before delimiting Ukraine regions it claims
Reuters skrev:Three days after moving to annex four regions of Ukraine, the Kremlin said on Monday it would need to carry out consultations on defining the borders of two of the territories.

"We will continue to consult with people who live in these areas," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, referring to the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Snart behöver Kreml även "konsultera" befolkningen i Luhansk oblast...

Ukraine war: Questions over France's weapons supply to Kyiv
BBC skrev:Recent analysis conducted on the ground in Poland and Ukraine shows that the French share of foreign arms deliveries is less than 2%, way behind the US on 49%, but also behind Poland (22%) and Germany (9%).

[...]

"France's goal of strategic autonomy for Europe is focused primarily on building up our defence industries via joint procurement. But if you want joint procurement, you have to demonstrate to other countries that you have the same vision about our common security," he says.
Frankrikes idé om ett självständigt EU är upp till bevis.

Half of mobilised men in Russian region sent home, commissar fired, governor says
Reuters skrev:The military commissar of Russia's Khabarovsk region was removed from his post after half of the newly mobilised personnel were sent home as they did not meet the draft criteria, the region's governor said early on Monday.

Russia's first mobilisation since World War Two, declared by President Vladimir Putin on Sept. 21, has led to widespread discontent among officials and citizens over the way the draft has been handled, including complaints about enlistment officers sending call-up papers to clearly ineligible men.
Putins mobilisering är inget annat än en fars.

Iranian production Mohajer-6 UAV is now in the possession of the Ukrainian forces after it was shot down in the South
Clash Report skrev:Qaem-1 smart miniature bomb can be seen.
USA och Israel tackar och tar emot.
Enceladus
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U.S. to send mobile rocket launchers to Ukraine in $625 mln aid package -officials
Reuters skrev:The Biden administration's next security assistance package for Ukraine is expected to include four High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers, munitions, mines and mine-resistant vehicles, two sources briefed on the $625 million package told Reuters on Monday.
Det är ett tag sedan Ukraina fick mer av detta krigs undervapen.

Russia sacks commander of Western military district - reports
Reuters skrev:The western military district is one of five that make up Russia's armed forces. The reported departure of Zhuravlyov follows dramatic Russian losses in northeast Ukraine last month and the recapture by Ukraine on Saturday of Lyman, which Russia had used as an important logistics hub in Donetsk region.
Kaoset fortsätter inom den ryska militären. MilitaryLand.net har uppdaterade kartor för såväl Luhansk-offensiven som Cherson-offensiven.

Jack Detsch förklarar varför det går så dåligt för Ryssland:
Jack Detsch skrev:NEW: U.S. has not seen a large-scale movement of Russian forces despite battlefield losses to Ukraine in the east and south of the country: senior U.S. military official
Den 2 oktober ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,35 procentenheter till 89,32 procent och Tysklands gaslager med 0,38 procentenheter till 92,08 procent. Som bekant är Tysklands slutliga mål att nå en fyllnadsgrad på 95 procent den 1 november.
Breitspurbahn
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Det är en smula oroväckande att kärnvapen har börjat nämnas allt mer frekvent, samtidigt som förslag på fredsförhandlingar, som senast av Elon Musk, bemöts med hårda anklagelser om spioneri (verkar bara vara denna konflikt man måste ha en åsikt om för att inte anklagas för att vara KGB-spion) & sympatier.
Ekvationen är inte helt optimal.
Enceladus
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Breitspurbahn skrev: tisdag 04 oktober 2022 11:36 Det är en smula oroväckande att kärnvapen har börjat nämnas allt mer frekvent, samtidigt som förslag på fredsförhandlingar, som senast av Elon Musk, bemöts med hårda anklagelser om spioneri (verkar bara vara denna konflikt man måste ha en åsikt om för att inte anklagas för att vara KGB-spion) & sympatier.
Ekvationen är inte helt optimal.
Elon Musk är i bästa fall en nyttig idiot som inte är insatt i ämnet och rökte på lite för mycket innan han började twittra.

Ryssland godkänner annektering – men militära motgångarna fortsätter
DN skrev:Tisdagens rapporter om kriget är som hämtade ur två olika verkligheter.

I Moskva röstade federationsrådet, den ryska dumans överhus, för att införliva de fyra regionerna Luhansk, Donetsk, Cherson och Zaporizjzja i Ryssland. Senare på tisdagen väntas president Vladimir Putin att underteckna en lag som verkställer annekteringen, som är ett brott mot folkrätten.

[...]

Utvecklingen i kriget visar att Rysslands kontroll över de annekterade områdena minskat de senaste dagarna. Sedan Ukraina återtog den viktiga knutpunkten Lyman i helgen har de militära framgångarna fortsatt i både Luhansk och Cherson, där Ukraina har återtagit mark.
Militärbloggaren Rybar visar hur snabbt Ukraina avancerar mot Cherson norrifrån. Enligt Ukraina förlorade Ryssland hela 44 stridsvagnar igår, varav 31 stridsvagnar i Cherson-området. Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 6 723 enheter, varav 1 262 stridsvagnar och 13 uråldriga T-62:or.

Russia uses T-90S tanks originally bound for export customers
Defence Blog skrev:Russia faces depleting armor reserves after six months of significant losses in Ukraine and apparently decided to divert to its own forces T-90S tanks that were initially bound for export customers.

[...]

Russia is visually confirmed to have lost an average of seven or so tanks a day in the first 100 days of the bloody war, and the actual number is likely far higher. According to the Oryx Blog, run by military analysts Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans, Russia has lost at least 1200 tanks since Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine began on Feb. 24.

[...]

A number of Cold War-era T-62 tanks have already been seen in Ukraine.
Ryssland förlorar allt fler stridsvagnar och har snart inget att exportera. Ovanstående artikel har en länk till Oryx lista över visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster.
Enceladus
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In Retreat on Ukrainian Fronts, Russia Shows Signs of Disarray
New York Times skrev:Ukrainian soldiers have encountered hungry, poorly outfitted Russian troops, some with little weaponry to defend themselves.

“Lots of times they were wearing flip-flops, malnourished,” Mr. Roy said.

Two Russian soldiers his unit found had only one gun between them. At another abandoned Russian position, he said, they found gr-ff-t- apparently left behind by fleeing soldiers that used a slur to describe their commander.

“It does not scream of a well mobilized army,” he said. “My feeling is they don’t want to be here.”
Putins invasion av Ukraina kommer att gå till historieböckerna av många anledningar, inte minst ryssarnas dåliga stridsmoral.

About 700,000 people leave Russia after announced mobilization
The New Voice of Ukraine skrev:About 700,000 people have left Russia in the nearly two weeks following the announcement of a “partial” mobilization in the country, the Russian edition of Forbes business news reported on Oct. 4.

Around 200,000 of them have gone to neighboring Kazakhstan alone since Sept. 21, Kazakh Internal Affairs Minister Marat Akhmetzhanov said.
De enda som är rädda för den ryska armén är ryska män i militär ålder. :roll:

The Russians are emptying banks: the outflow into cash since the beginning of mobilization has exceeded 600 billion rubles
Grupo JBL Times skrev:Russians fleeing war and mobilization continue to empty their bank accounts, withdrawing cash from cash desks and ATMs at a record rate since the early days of the war.

On Friday, September 30, when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the occupied territories of Ukraine and accused Western countries of “Satanism”, the volume of cash in circulation (outside the Central Bank) increased by another 144.8 billion rubles, follows from the operational statistics of the regulator.
De flyende ryssarna lämnar förstås inte landet tomhänta - ännu en smäll för den ryska ekonomin.

Russia has mobilized for war many times before – sometimes it unified the nation, other times it ended in disaster
The Conversation skrev:Putin appears to look toward World War II, missing the lessons of the earlier Great War.

[...]

Putin’s war in Ukraine is very different. It is widely seen as unnecessary, public support is tepid, and there is no free press or freely elected representatives to give it legitimate support.

The mobilization of 1917 provides a stark lesson that larger armies are not necessarily stronger ones, and adding large numbers of unreliable soldiers to an army can be an enormous gamble.
Den som inte kan minnas sitt förflutna är dömd att upprepa det...

Five weeks to pack up: Why Lyman was surrendered not by Russian generals, but personally by Colonel Putin, and how soon Russia will give up all its gains in Ukraine
Novaya Gazeta Europe skrev:A showdown between Putin and his generals is inevitable, but most likely will drag on for several months. A lot can happen during that time. The capture of Lyman allows Ukrainian forces to advance in two main directions. The first is on Svatove, an important transport junction where several highways that supply Russian troops in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions intersect. During the offensive, the AFU may cut the Svatove-Kreminna road and eliminate Russian strongholds that run along it. In the Svatove area, advancing Ukrainian units may encounter forces from Kupiansk moving towards them and, in the event of Svatove’s liberation, the AFU can launch an offensive on Starobilsk. Another potential line of action by the Ukrainian army in the coming weeks is an attack on Kreminna, the town that covers the Rubizhne — Sievierodonetsk — Lysychansk agglomeration from the northwest, which Ukraine lost in June.

The results of such actions by the AFU are still hard to tell, but if they are successful, Russia’s position in the entire northern part of the Luhansk region will be undermined. The time factor is very important: the Ukrainian army has 4-5 weeks to storm Svatove, Starobilsk and Kreminna, as already in the first decade of November, we can expect the beginning of the autumn thaw, during which the intensity of combat operations by ground troops is seriously reduced. We cannot expect Moscow to decide to move any significant forces to the Luhansk region from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions or from the Donetsk direction. In this case, the defences would be weakened.
Hur mycket av Luhansk-området hinner Ukraina att befria under de kommande veckorna? Förväntningarna tycks vara höga.
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