Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Livet handlar inte bara om spårvagnar och lokaltrafik. Här kan det diskuteras om andra ting. (endast för registrerade användare)

Moderatorer: Jourmaster, Infomaster

Kategoriregler
Livet handlar inte bara om spårvagnar och lokaltrafik. Här kan det diskuteras om andra ting. (endast för registrerade användare)
Allmänna forumregler
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Nye försvarsministern Pål Jonson: Ukraina ska få avancerade vapen
DN skrev:– Det känns ansvarsfullt att ta över rollen i ett väldigt allvarligt säkerhetspolitiskt läge. Tre faktorer kommer att prägla oss under mandatperioden. Det första är kriget i Ukraina, säger Pål Jonson.
Den nya regeringen har visat sig vara besvikelse i klimatfrågan. Låt oss hoppas att det blir annorlunda här.

Den 28 oktober ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,17 procentenheter till 94,25 procent och Tysklands gaslager med 0,23 procentenheter till 98,19 procent. Otroligt!

Putin Stirs European Worry on Home Appliance Imports Stripped for Arms
Bloomberg skrev:Armenia imported more washing machines from the European Union during the first eight months of the year than the past two years combined, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the EU’s Eurostat database. Kazakhstan imported $21.4 million worth of European refrigerators through August, more than triple the amount for the same period last year.
Är det därför de ryska soldaterna stjäl tvättmaskiner från Ukraina? :roll:

How Is Russia Faring Against NATO Equipment In Ukraine? A Tally
Oryx skrev:With Russia meanwhile outgunned and outranged on most fronts, the biggest threat to the operations of Ukrainian HIMARS, M270 and Western-donated tube artillery does not appear to be the destruction by Russian counter-battery fire or loitering munitions, but rather a lack of ammunition and barrel wear as a result of continued operations. Only a dozen out of the approximately 160 155mm M777 towed howitzers delivered to Ukraine are visually confirmed to have been destroyed. [3] And despite claiming the destruction of 20 HIMARS launchers, Russia has brought forward no evidence that supports the destruction of even a single HIMARS. The only units that have in fact been suffering losses at the hands of Russian military forces are Ukraine's mechanised units, which have been the recipient mainly of ex-Soviet tanks and Western APCs and are currently leading the charge in Kherson.
Ryssland har fortfarande inte lyckats slå ut Ukrainas bästa utrustning. Det finns inte mycket som tyder på att detta kommer att ändras.

Italy 🇮🇹 and France 🇫🇷 will supply Ukraine 🇺🇦 with SAMP-T Air Defense Systems
Ukraine Battle Map skrev:It’s reported that Italy will supply radars for the SAMP-T and France will supply 1 SAMP-T launcher

The news is not yet officially confirmed by France or by Italy but was reported on by Italian Newspapers OPEN and Italy24, Ukrainian Newspapers, Russia’s TASS, TPYXA, and by NEXTA
Än så länge är detta obekräftade uppgifter. Det fransk-italienska luftvärnssystemet brukar ses som en av de vassaste konkurrenterna till amerikanska Patriot.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Grain ships sail despite Moscow's pullout from deal; missiles rain on Ukraine
Reuters skrev:Twelve ships carrying grain left Ukrainian ports on Monday despite Russia having abandoned a U.N.-backed deal to guarantee exports from the war zone, suggesting Moscow had stopped short of reimposing a blockade that might have caused world hunger.

[...]

"Even if Russia behaves hesitantly because it didn't receive the same benefits, we will continue decisively our efforts to serve humanity," Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who helped mediate the grain deal, said in a speech.
Erdogans rykte står på spel. Putin har dock förmodligen inte råd att förnedra honom.

How Russia secretly takes grain from occupied Ukraine
Financial Times skrev:But the caller, who was from Geos, suggested that Asgarov could take the Pawell’s cargo and find buyers for it in Turkey — a major regional hub for processing wheat.
Som vanligt spelar Turkiet för båda sidorna.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 30
ISW skrev:Occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast announced a dual currency system that allows the use of both rubles and hryvnya, unwinding a months-long effort to enforce rubleization in the oblast.[32]
Befolkningen står emot russifieringen, speciellt när ockupationen ser ut att bli kortlivad.

Analysis: Ukraine strikes with Kamikaze USVs – Russian bases are not safe anymore
Naval News skrev:Ukraine took the asymmetric threat to a new level by attacking Russian ships at their mother base with the kamikaze USVs. This attacking style was quite unfamiliar in naval warfare, though the navies have been working on the CONOPS (concept of opreations) to use these assets as a part of the manned fleets.

[...]

Russia is a country with a maritime culture that has carried out successful harbor raids in its history. The fact that this navy’s warships were damaged by Ukraine’s attack, which deprived it of almost all naval forces, shows that Russia lacks basic capabilities such as port protection, reconnaissance, and accurate assessment of the enemy’s capabilities.

Every war sheds light on future conflicts, thanks to the lessons learned in it. What happened to the Russian Navy in the Black Sea shows that expendable USVs and UAVs will pose a major threat to multi-million dollar ships. In future conflicts, it will be even more difficult for ships that are not equipped with effective protection and survival systems, and drone swarms will be a major problem for large combat ships.
Ukraina upphör inte att imponera med sin uppfinningsrikedom.

Russia’s Black Sea flagship damaged in Crimea drone attack, video suggests
The Guardian skrev:Zagorodnyuk said he was struck by the fact the drones had “a quite powerful live video connection”. They were able to record the attack, despite the fact they were in operation more than 100 miles from the Ukrainian coast. “That this can be done over this distance is remarkable,” he observed. By contrast, the Iranian kamikaze drones that attacked Kyiv two weeks ago were more primitive and “flew blind”, he noted.

Ukraine has shown it is able to strike at long-distance targets in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. It is presumed to have struck the bridge connecting the peninsula with Russia, the Saky aerodrome, and – two months ago – the naval headquarters building in Sevastopol. Zelenskiy has vowed to liberate Crimea, together with all of occupied southern and eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainas drönare verkar vara mer avancerade än Irans. Har Ukraina fått hjälp utifrån?

Den 29 oktober ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,22 procentenheter till 94,34 procent och Tysklands gaslager med 0,34 procentenheter till 98,52 procent. Ofattbart!
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Enough for more than two months: gas storage tanks reach record filling levels
Daily News skrev:There is more natural gas stored in German gas storage facilities than ever before. This emerges from data published on the Internet by European gas storage operators. According to this, the amount stored on October 24, at 239.64 terawatt hours, exceeded the previous maximum value of November 10, 2019, when 239.62 terawatt hours of energy content were registered. In the meantime, the value has risen to 241.62 terawatt hours (provisional as of October 29).

For comparison: In January and February 2022, according to the Federal Network Agency, a total of almost 227 terawatt hours of natural gas were consumed in Germany. The German storage facilities are 98.52 percent full. The percentage all-time high has not been reached: On October 27, 2019, according to the Association of German Storage Operators, they were 99.66 percent full. According to the storage association GIE, the filling level of all storage facilities in Europe was 94.34 percent on Saturday.
Tyskland har aldrig någonsin tidigare haft lika mycket gas i sina lager som nu. I relativa tal är det fortfarande en bit till rekordet från hösten 2019.

Europe is seeing its warmest weather on record so late in the year
The Washington Post skrev:Over the past two weeks, temperatures in parts of France and surrounding countries have run more than 15 degrees (8.5 Celsius) above normal. This exceptional warmth helped France clinch its warmest October on record by a large margin, Kapikian tweeted. Austria and Switzerland also had their warmest Octobers, tweeted Maximiliano Herrera, who tracks weather extremes around the world.
Den 30 oktober ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,22 procentenheter till 94,68 procent och Tysklands lager med 0,29 procentenheter till 98,82 procent. Vilket väder!

Ukraine Agrees With 12 Countries On Equipment Supply For Power System Restoration
Ukrainian News Agency skrev:"We have already agreed on the supply of equipment from the governments and companies of 12 countries: Israel, Spain, Italy, Lithuania, Germany, North Macedonia, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland and France. In total, we are talking about 954 units of energy equipment. The first batches of assistance are already in Ukraine, the rest is expected in the near future. We continue to work to increase the number of partners and volumes of support," said Kuleba.
Samtidigt skickas utrustning för att reparera Ukrainas elförsörjning från tolv länder.

Ukrainian Military Disclose the Scale of Today's russian Aerial Attack
Defense Express skrev:"Just today, the enemy used 55 Kh-101 cruise missiles and one Kh-59 guided air missile, 22 anti-aircraft missiles for S-300 surface-to-air missile systems (SA-10 Grumble – author's note), 4 'Shahed-136' UAVs and one 'Lancet-3' UAV on civilian targets in Ukraine," noted General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the supreme commander of AFU.

According to the report from the Air Force Command, 44 out of those 55 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles were successfully destroyed. The attack was carried out in a few waves and aimed for the objects of critical infrastructure of Ukraine. The missiles were launched from the Caspian Sea by Tu-95/Tu-160 strategic aircraft.
Ukraina behöver mer luftvärn! Enligt uppgift lyckades systemet Iris-T skjuta ner samtliga mål där det opererar.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Ukrainian Saboteurs Reportedly Blew Up Russian Helicopters 500 Miles From Ukraine
Forbes skrev:Ukrainian air defenses have shot down at least a quarter of the 100 or so twin-rotor Ka-52s the air force operated before Russia’s wider war on Ukraine starting late February. Now Ukrainian saboteurs have damaged or destroyed another four Ka-52s at an airfield in western Russia, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency.

[...]

It’s impossible to verify the agency’s assertion. But Russian social media users mentioned incidents involving helicopters in Pskov Oblast. And there is a video purportedly depicting the daytime sabotage. The short video depicts a man crouching alongside a Ka-52, preparing what appears to be a bomb combining an MD-5M detonator with a VZD-6Ch mechanical fuze.

[...]

Don’t count on manufacturer Kamov to make good those losses any time soon. It took Kamov 14 years to supply the roughly 100 Ka-52s that the Russian air force went to war with. And Russia’s production of military aircraft actually has decreased owing to foreign sanctions on high-tech components that Russian industry never has been able to manufacture on its own.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 7 599 enheter, varav 1 429 stridsvagnar och 57 helikoptrar. Därmed fortsätter Rysslands avmilitarisering.
Enceladus skrev: söndag 30 oktober 2022 12:56 Ukraine says Russian death toll up 950 over Saturday
De senaste dagarna har Ryssland lidit exceptionella förluster, i söndags 620 förlorade soldater. Lördagens rekord sägs skämtsamt bero på tidsomställningens extra timme. :!:

Enligt uppgift har endast 16 tåg passerat Kertjbron sedan explosionen på bron i början av oktober. Hur många dubbelspår trafikeras av färre än ett tåg per dag?

U.S. "not going to waste time" on Iran deal right now, official says
Axios skrev:The official said that Tehran's response to the protests coupled with Iran’s support of Russia’s war in Ukraine fundamentally changed the situation, and therefore, even if Iran came back to the table today and said it wanted a nuclear deal, the U.S. was unlikely to move forward.

The official added that the administration is already looking at the situation as if there is no nuclear deal and is taking steps to ensure the U.S. has a ready military option.
Stundar ett nytt krig i Mellanöstern?

Russia recruiting Afghan special forces who fought with US to fight in Ukraine
The Guardian skrev:Afghan special forces soldiers who fought alongside American troops and then fled to Iran after the chaotic US withdrawal last year are now being recruited by the Russian military to fight in Ukraine, three former Afghan generals have told the Associated Press.

[...]

“They don’t want to go fight – but they have no choice,” said one of the generals, Abdul Raof Arghandiwal, adding that the dozen or so commandos in Iran with whom he has texted fear deportation most. “They ask me, ‘Give me a solution? What should we do? If we go back to Afghanistan, the *fd afgahnsk regim* will kill us.’”

[...]

“We didn’t get these individuals out as we promised, and now it’s coming home to roost,” said Michael Mulroy, a retired CIA officer who served in Afghanistan, adding that the Afghan commandos were highly skilled, fierce fighters. “I don’t want to see them in any battlefield, frankly, but certainly not fighting the Ukrainians.”
Fiaskot i Afghanistan gör sig påmint än en gång.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

War Mapper illustrerar territoriella förändringar varje månad. Här är sammanfattningen för oktober:
War Mapper skrev:Over the month of October 🇺🇦 has liberated approximately 2,535km² of Ukraine.

This means that 🇷🇺 currently occupies ~17.30% of Ukraine. ~0.42% less of the total area of the country than at the end of September.
Ryssland har inte gjort några större vinster sedan april. I september återtog Ukraina initiativet efter sommarens stiltje.

Revolut Co-Founder Joins Other Billionaires Renouncing Russian Citizenship Amid Ukraine War
IBTimes skrev:The Russian-born chief executive and co-founder of Revolut, a $33 billion UK-based fintech company, Nikolay Storonsky, has joined the ranks of other billionaires who have renounced their Russian citizenship following Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
Kompetensflykten fortsätter.

‘They need cannon fodder’ Concerned about population decline but unwilling to address root causes, Russian politicians have set their sights on citizens' reproductive rights
Meduza skrev:In the months since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, the Kremlin has been working hard to give citizens the impression that the country’s demographic future is under threat — and that the authorities are doing all they can to save it, including waging war in Ukraine. It’s true that Russia’s population decline rate has hit a record high, but rather than speaking honestly about the more than one million excess deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the tens of thousands of Russians killed in Ukraine, or the exodus of draft evaders that followed Putin’s mobilization announcement, the Russian authorities prefer to blame bogeymen such as LGBT+ people.
Går det att styra ett land med enbart kanonföda?

Gazprom’s Gas Exports Fell in October Amid Capped European Flows
Bloomberg skrev:Concerns over the Russian fuel deliveries, which historically accounted for about a third Europe’s gas consumption, have eased in recent weeks. Unusually mild weather has delayed the demand for heating, allowing European nations to continue stockpiling gas. EU gas storage sites were more than 94% full as of the end of last week, compared with five-year seasonal average of 89%.

[...]

Russia’s gas giant exported 139 million cubic meters a day to countries outside the former Soviet Union last month, down 11.5% from September, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data published Tuesday. Since the start of the year, Gazprom’s deliveries to its main foreign clients have fallen 42.6% from a year ago to 91.2 billion cubic meters.

[...]

Gazprom’s daily gas production averaged 990 million cubic meters in October, up almost 18% from a month earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations. Its production this year has fallen 19% from a year earlier to 344 billion cubic meters.
Europas bröd är Rysslands död, för att parafrasera ett känt idiomatiskt uttryck.

Saudi Arabia, U.S. on High Alert After Warning of Imminent Iranian Attack
WSJ skrev:Saudi officials said Iran is poised to carry out attacks on both the kingdom and Erbil, Iraq, in an effort to distract attention from domestic protests that have roiled the country since September.
Väntar ett nytt krig i Mellanöstern?
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Putin kräver garantier för att tillåta spannmålsexport från Ukraina
DN skrev:På tisdagen fördes det samtal på flera nivåer mellan Turkiet och Ryssland. Enligt Putin har Ukraina använt korridoren ”för militära ändamål”. Ryssland kräver garantier om en strikt efterlevnad av den ursprungliga överenskommelsen för att den ska kunna återupptas. Dessutom vill Ryssland se ”detaljerad utredning” av drönarattacker mot delar av den ryska Svartahavsflottan i Sevastopol på Krim.

[...]

På tisdagen lämnade tre fartyg med spannmål ukrainska hamnar. På måndagen handlade det om tolv fartyg, enligt centret som övervakar utförandet av avtalet om spannmålsexport.

– Förflyttningen av dessa fartyg har godkänts av ukrainska, turkiska och FN:s delegationer. Den ryska delegationen har informerats, uppger koordineringscentret för AFP.
Vad gör den ryska Svartahavsflottan i Ukraina? :roll:

Ukraine's 63rd Brigade gears up for Kherson push
bne IntelliNews skrev:“This morning they were hitting us, but nothing like what they used to,” says Nazar, a 38-year-old officer from Lviv. “The intensity is much lower than a month and a half ago. They still fire on us – GRADs, Uragans [rocket artillery], heavy howitzers – but we control the situation now,” Nazar says.

[...]

“Are we ready to enter Kherson now? Yes, we are ready. Can we do it? If we really want it, then yes. But we have to understand what human losses we are going to have. The most important thing is people’s lives. As a commander, I have to do everything to get all the people who came to me on the 24th of February home – to see the end of the war,” he says.
Striden om Cherson intensifieras. Rysslands artilleriövertag är som bortblåst. Även Kofman har sagt att Ukraina har övertaget nu.

Iran is preparing to send additional weapons including ballistic missiles to Russia to use in Ukraine, western officials say
CNN skrev:Iran is preparing to send approximately 1,000 additional weapons, including surface-to-surface short range ballistic missiles and more attack drones, to Russia to use in its war against Ukraine, officials from a western country that closely monitors Iran’s weapons program told CNN.

[...]

The US is “looking at everything that we can do, not just with sanctions” in order to disrupt the Iranian weaponry from going to Russia, Secretary of State Tony Blinken said last week. He said that the US is “trying to break up these networks.”
Iran planerar nya leveranser till Ryssland. Samtidigt höjs tonläget från Irans ärkefiender. Situationen blir alltmer kaotisk.

Europe Set for Mild Month as Forecasters See Winter on Hold
Bloomberg skrev:Autumn in Europe has already been unseasonably warm, with October registering the lowest number of “heating-degree days” since 2000, Dross said. That’s helped keep gas in storage facilities, which are now about 95% full across the continent, with Germany’s sites above target at almost 99%.

[...]

Lower-than-expected gas demand and declining prices -- coupled with limited capacity to accommodate incoming cargoes of liquefied natural gas -- have already triggered greater use of floating storage. Traders globally are keeping their LNG shipments on vessels for longer -- with record volumes at sea in October -- in anticipation of higher prices later in the season.

[...]

A warm November would be far from solving Europe’s energy problems, but a delayed start to the heating season would at least give policymakers some breathing room. And if the region is spared a deep freeze this winter -- as predicted by scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service -- consumers may get welcome respite from the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades.

Still, such unusually mild weather raises fears about climate change.
Jag som trodde att Putin välkomnade klimatförändringar...

Russische Whistleblowerin packt aus: Die Machtkämpfe in Putins Umfeld – und sein Wille, wirklich alles zu riskieren
Der Tagesspiegel skrev:Dass Russland nicht vor perfiden Mitteln zurückschrecke, zeige der Einsatz chemischer Waffen im September in Cherson, sagt Dmitrieva. Sie habe kurz vor ihrer Abreise von einem Bekannten beim GRU erfahren, dass der Lungenkampfstoff Chlorpikrin, der zu schweren Verletzungen und zum Tod führen kann, in Cherson zum Einsatz kam. der Kampfstoff wurde schon im Ersten Weltkrieg eingesetzt und ist verboten.
I ovanstående tyskspråkiga artikel avslöjar en före detta FSB-anställd att Ryssland har använt det kemiska vapnet klorpikrin i Cherson-området, dock utan större framgång. Vidare uppges Putin oroa sig över en kupp, vilket han i och för sig har gjort i åratal.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

What can Putin present as a victory?
Meduza skrev:Regardless, the Kremlin is determined to get Putin an unprecedented majority in the next election cycle. Although the presidential press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, didn’t answer our queries, Meduza’s source close to the President’s Administration explains that, following the extraordinary unanimity of the “referendum” vote in the Ukrainian Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, “anything significantly lower than that is a no-no.” “There should be total support — also for the sake of demonstrating the president’s popularity to the West itself.”

[...]

By 2024, the economic consequences of the sanctions and of Russia’s isolation will become fully evident. Of course, you can present any election result you like, but why upset the population with such, well, not very credible record numbers?

Still, this particular source doesn’t think this a possible scenario: “Vladimir Putin,” he says, “likes to see himself supported by the people.”
Putin lever kvar i en verklighet och en värld som fanns före 1991.

In-depth: Russia’s war means fossil fuels will peak within five years, IEA says
Carbon Brief skrev:By invading Ukraine and precipitating a global energy crisis, Russia has lost its largest export market in Europe. It faces a “much diminished role in international energy affairs” and there are “considerable doubts” over a pivot to Asia because of physical supply constraints.

Russia’s share of global fossil fuel exports will fall precipitously, particularly relative to pre-war expectations. It is set to lose out on more than $1tn in export revenues this decade.
Grattis till segern, Putin!

Ex-Chess Grandmaster Karpov Hospitalized After Mysterious Fall
RFE/RL skrev:Former Soviet and Russian chess grandmaster Anatoly Karpov has been hospitalized in Moscow with a traumatic brain injury and a fractured leg after falling under mysterious circumstances.

[...]

Karpov has been elected to parliament as a member of the ruling party three times. He is currently under Western sanctions over Russia's ongoing unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

Kasparov, who currently resides in the United States, is known as a staunch critic of the Kremlin's policies, including Russia's aggression against Ukraine.
De forna schackrivalerna Karpov och Kasparov har båda gett sig in i den ryska politiken, Karpov som lojalist och Kasparov som oppositionspolitiker. På senare tid har även Karpov kritiserat Putins invasion av Ukraina, varefter han råkade ut för en mystisk olycka.

Ukraina: Tusentals ryska soldater hör av sig – vill inte strida
Sveriges Radio skrev:Ukraina har nyligen lanserat en ny telefonlinje för ryska män som inte vill strida i Ukraina och är beredda att överlämna sig själva. Och enligt projektet har redan flera tusen ryska soldater hört av sig.
Inte bara Karpov är missnöjd med kriget.

Russia Agrees to Resume Ukraine Grain Export Deal; Wheat Tumbles
Bloomberg skrev:Wheat prices plunged after Russia agreed to resume the deal allowing safe passage of Ukrainian crop exports, reversing a weekend announcement that sowed chaos through agricultural markets and sent prices soaring.

[...]

The future of the agreement -- brokered in July by Turkey and the United Nations and seen as critical to shoring up global food supplies -- was thrown into question after Russia’s announcement on Saturday that it was suspending involvement. But Turkey and the UN pressed ahead with shipments even without Russian participation.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan earlier said shipments via the Ukraine grain corridor would resume on Wednesday, citing assurances from Russian authorities made earlier to Turkish counterparts.
Putin har väl respekterat Erdogan ända sedan Turkiet sköt ner ett ryskt stridsplan vid gränsen mot Syrien år 2015.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

US ready to act in Middle East after report of Iran plotting attacks in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, defense officials say
Stars and Stripes skrev:“We are concerned about the threat picture,” a spokesperson for the National Security Council said in a statement Tuesday. “And we remain in constant contact through military and intelligence channels with the Saudis.”

“We will not hesitate to act in the defense of our interests and partners in the region,” the spokesperson added.
Spänningen ökar i Mellanöstern.

Russia vetoing EUFOR in Bosnia may not be a bad thing
Al Jazeera skrev:With its clients – Dodik and Čović – in place, Russia may seek to destabilse the Western Balkans. One way to do that may be to veto the UNSC’s decision to extend the EUFOR’s mandate.

[...]

In this context, Russia’s veto of EUFOR may not be all bad news. Such a step would be a clear sign to Washington and NATO to pay more attention to the Balkans. An end to EUFOR could mean the resurrection of the NATO mission in Bosnia, which would definitely be a boost to the country’s security and stave off secessionist ambitions.
Liksom på Balkan.

North Korea fires off at least 17 missiles, including one landing near South Korean waters
The Japan Times skrev:North Korea fired off a barrage of at least 23 missiles of various types from its east and west coasts on Wednesday, including one that landed near South Korean territorial waters for the first time since the 1953 division of the peninsula, pushing tensions to fresh highs.
Liksom på Koreahalvön.

Russian Retreat in Ukraine Exposes Collaborators—and the Finger-Pointing Begins
WSJ skrev:Still, residents faced wrenching decisions. Serhiy Kovshar, a former police lieutenant whose son was killed fighting Russian proxies in the Donbas region in 2015, quietly removed a commemorative plaque on the front of his house. By May, he had joined the new occupation police force, say local residents who saw him at checkpoints and on patrols.

[...]

Mr. Kovshar, the former policeman, was detained for a couple of hours, and then released. Interviewed in his home, he acknowledged that he briefly joined the Russian-led police but said he did it only to steal the list of local hunters who owned rifles, so that the Russians wouldn’t have it. He said he passed intelligence to Ukrainian forces all along. The plaque commemorating his son’s heroism in Donbas is now affixed again on his home, a Ukrainian flag flying above it.

Queried about the case, Ukrainian law-enforcement officials declined to comment on individual investigations. Mr. Prykhodko, the mayor, said there was no legally admissible evidence of collaboration by Mr. Kovshar.
I Ukraina fortsätter jakten på kollaboratörer.

Vidare har ChrisO en ny tråd om hur Putin använder sin kanonföda:
ChrisO skrev:1/ Mobilised men of the Russian 4th Guards Tank Division are sheltering in an abandoned house in Svatove without food or water after fleeing from the front line under intense Ukrainian fire that killed their commander. They are now being threatened with court martials.

[...]

4/ The men were mobilised in late September and sent to a training range at Naro-Fominsk, where they were told that they would stay for between two weeks and a month to receive training. However, they were sent within 3 days to a forest camp near Valuyki in Belgorod oblast.

[...]

8/ The men had mobilised willingly out of patriotism but their enthusiasm was likely dented when they learned that out of a previous group of 96 mobilised men sent from the camp on 7 October, only 20 had returned alive after Ukrainian shelling.
Inte undra på att Ukraina rapporterar rekordmånga ryska förlorade soldater, under den senaste veckan 320, 480, 550, 950, 620, 650 respektive 800.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Energy: Gas storage 99.19 percent full
24 Hours World skrev:On November 1st, all but two of the gas storage facilities in Germany had reached the legally required fill level of at least 95 percent. This emerged on Wednesday evening from preliminary data published on the Internet by the European gas storage association GIE. According to this, the German storage facilities were 99.19 percent full by 6 a.m. on Wednesday morning, 0.29 percentage points more than the previous day.

The largest German storage facility in Rehden, Lower Saxony, did not reach the target, it was 92.5 percent full. A smaller storage facility in Epe, North Rhine-Westphalia, reported a value of 91.1 percent.
Snart blir Rysslands gaslager helt fyllda.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2
ISW skrev:Russian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has previously forecasted.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calls for a competitive Russian military industry are divorced from the reality of Russian supply chain and defense industrial base issues.
På samma gång töms Putins kassakista. Den refererade Reuters-artikeln är intressant:
Reuters skrev:After eight months of what it calls a "special military operation", Moscow has drawn up a 2023 budget that takes no account of the cost of the recent call-up of 300,000 reservists, the declared annexation of four Ukrainian regions - the Kremlin says the four joined Russia freely - and Western efforts to cap Russian energy export prices, analysts say.

[...]

Moscow sees energy revenues at 9 trillion roubles next year, or a third of its total income - a projection analysts say is also too optimistic amid upcoming sanctions on Russian energy imports by the west.
Putins teknokrater tycks leva i en parallell verklighet, vilket jag uppmärksammade tidigare:
Enceladus skrev: fredag 23 september 2022 7:39 Rysslands gasexport väntas nästan halveras under kommande år, trots att landet räknar med att sälja mer gas till Europa än nu.
Hur ska Ryssland sälja mer gas till Europa efter att ha bränt alla broar? :roll:

Poland to help Ukraine integrate Su-24 bombers with NATO SCALP missiles
Military Monitoring skrev:The high price of SCALP, amounting to $ 1.4 million, will not allow Ukraine to massively equip its Su-24 bombers. However, even a few missiles, launched from Ukrainian aircraft, can strike at Russian facilities in the deep rear. According to Polish experts, the installation of modern high-precision missiles on the bombers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is only a matter of time. This will allow Ukraine to hit targets located at a distance of 300 km from the front line.
Detta skulle göra det möjligt för Ukraina att både Sevastopol och Kertjbron. Uppgifterna kommer dock från militärbloggaren Rybar.

ОSINT: Over 1,400 Russian officers killed in the war in Ukraine
The Odessa Journal skrev:It is noted that 44 colonels of the Russian Federation, 98 lieutenant colonels, and 193 majors were also killed in the war in Ukraine. In addition, 279 captains, 471 senior lieutenants, 235 lieutenants and 72 other military ranks were liquidated.
Nu strömmar också rapporter in om att mobiliserade ryssar vägrar åka till fronten samtidigt som allt fler dör i kriget.
Senast redigerad av Enceladus den torsdag 03 november 2022 17:25, redigerad totalt 1 gånger.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Russia signals huge new retreat in southern Ukraine; Kyiv cautious
Reuters skrev:Russian forces are likely to abandon their foothold on the west bank of Ukraine's Dnipro River, a Russian-installed occupation official said on Thursday, signalling a massive Russian retreat that, if confirmed, would be a major turning point in the war.

Ukrainian officials remained cautious about signs that Russia was abandoning the area, and there was silence from higher-ups in Moscow over the announcement of what would amount to one of Russia's most humiliating retreats since the invasion.

[...]

Speculation swirled on Thursday over whether Russia was indeed pulling out, after photos circulated on the internet showing the main administrative building in Kherson city with Russia's flag no longer flying atop it. Ukraine said those images could be Russian disinformation.
Ryska trupper påstås dra sig tillbaka från Dnipros västra strand, men Ukraina menar att Ryssland försöker så tvivel. Michael Kofman och Shashank Joshi har trådar om den oklara situationen i Cherson-området. Båda räknar med att staden Cherson befrias i år, med eller utan strider.

Bulgaria Breaks With Pro-Russia Past, Backs Ukraine Military Aid
Bloomberg skrev:Bulgarian lawmakers approved the first military aid shipments to Ukraine since Russia invaded its neighbor in February, ending months of resistance from Russia-friendly political parties and the nation’s president.

The Balkan country, which has close cultural and economic ties with Russia, was one of only two NATO and European Union members to provide no weaponry to Ukraine so far in the conflict, with Hungary being the other.
Hittills har Bulgarien skickat enorma mängder vapen till Ukraina indirekt via Polen och Rumänien:
EURACTIV skrev:While Bulgaria and Hungary are the only NATO and EU countries that officially refuse to send military aid to Ukraine, Bulgaria was revealed to be one of the biggest indirect suppliers to the war-torn country, selling a record amount of weapons since the start of the war.

Experts estimate that Bulgaria has so far supplied at least €1 billion of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine via brokers.

[...]

Currently, Bulgarian arms manufacturers and dealers sell their products mainly in Poland and Romania, where the arms are then re-exported to Ukraine.
I framtiden kan Bulgariens militära stöd bli mer direkt.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3
ISW skrev:Hromov stated that Russian forces continue ground attacks at the expense of mobilized personnel, private military company forces, and former prisoners, and that the Russians conducted over 40 ground attacks in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and western Donetsk Oblast areas in the past 24 hours, sustaining over 300 casualties (100 killed) in just one direction.
Hur stor nytta gör Putins kanonföda?

Iran’s Weapons Are Slowly Dragging Israel to Ukraine’s Defense
Bloomberg skrev:“These are weapons that we have to be prepared to confront -- we are the only country in the world that knows how to do that,” said Yossi Kuperwasser, a former top Israeli military intelligence official. “Ukraine can be a testing ground for our counter-measures.”

While former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is poised to return to power after winning elections on Nov. 1, an Israeli government led by him won’t have significantly different security priorities from the current administration, Kuperwasser said.

[...]

“The Iranian collaboration with Russia was a big shift for us,” Ukraine’s ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk, said at his country’s embassy in Tel Aviv last week. “We’d hoped Israel would choose to be on the right side of the war as a democratic country. But in the end, it happened because we have the same enemy, which is Iran.”
Ett europeiskt storkrig stannar sällan i Europa.

Moscow Opens the Way for Iran to Increase Its Influence in the Caucasus
Jamestown skrev:Moscow’s efforts to promote the development of a north-south trade corridor through the Caucasus and to use Iran to circumvent Western sanctions have given Tehran a new and expanded opportunity to take a leading role in the South Caucasus. First and foremost, as Russia’s new ally against the West, Iran will enjoy increased influence, but that may just be the beginning. Tehran has moved swiftly to take advantage of this opening, given its desire to distract attention from domestic problems, including mounting domestic protests; counter the moves of its geopolitical opponent Turkey; and recover influence in a region it views as part of its natural patrimony. The Kremlin clearly hopes that Iran will remain tethered to Russia. Nevertheless, Tehran, through a series of actions over the past several months—especially the ongoing military exercises on its borders with Azerbaijan and Armenia—has shown that Iran has its own agenda and is prepared to strike a more independent course. It has underscored its new agenda-setting power by insisting that a meeting with Russian officials take place not in Moscow but in Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. That Iran may exploit this situation further for its own benefit is certain to become a matter of serious concern not only in Moscow but also across the region and in Western capitals.

[...]

After surveying Tehran’s expanded diplomatic activities in the South Caucasus in recent months, Tarasov pointed to something that has attracted little attention in the West, or even in Russia, but that may have major consequences for both in the future. This concerned the launch of massive military training exercises in the Iranian provinces bordering Armenia and Azerbaijan. (They began on October 17 and are ongoing.) These exercises, which have included an announced bridging of the Aras River, are clearly intended to signal that Iran will not tolerate any change in the status of the Zangezur Corridor, the land bridge between Azerbaijan proper and its Nakhchivan exclave. That position is consistent with Moscow’s, but these exercises underscore that Iran has its own ability to affect outcomes and may be ready to start exercising it.
Rysslands traditionella intressesfär blir alltmer multipolär.

Will next week’s midterm elections impact US support for Ukraine?
Atlantic Council skrev:In foreign affairs, the Republicans will be split between neo-Reaganist and Trumpist wings. Both will attack the Biden Administration and push it to be tougher on China and Iran. Both wings will also push for greater burden sharing (meaning defense spending) by US allies. The neo-Reaganites will urge more push back against Putin while the Trumpists will either argue for pulling back from support for Ukraine or, in extreme cases, argue that accommodation with Russia is in the US national interest. Their stance will resemble the “isolationist” position of indifference to Hitler’s rise in the late 1930s.

The Democrats and neo-Reaganite Republicans will generally support Ukraine. Democrats may split, with a few hard left Democrats taking positions similar to Republicans who want to distance the US from Ukraine. But they will be few in number. Republicans who oppose continued aid to Ukraine will be larger in number. But Congress is unlikely to follow their lead.
USA har sitt mellanårsval på tisdag nästa vecka. Blir det någon större förändring i utrikespolitiken?

NATURAL GAS : German Demand Down 33% in October
Market News skrev:EU members maintain storage injections as warm weather keeps EU demand below seasonal normal levels.
  • Germany total monthly gas consumption was 33% below the 2018-21 average in October.
  • Total EU storage is up to 95.02% as on Nov 2 according to GIE data. Germany is at 99.3%, Italy at 95.44%, France at 100%, and Netherlands at 91.93%.
Den 2 november ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,10 procentenheter till 95,02 procent och Tysklands gaslager med 0,15 procentenheter till 99,30 procent. Nästan!

Associated Press har gjort en dokumentär om massakern i Butja (varning för starka bilder):

Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Pentagon will pay to upgrade dozens of Soviet-era tanks for Ukraine
POLITICO skrev:Meanwhile, the Netherlands will fund the refurbishment of another 45 Czech T-72 tanks for a total of 90 that are set to begin arriving in Ukraine by the end of the year, said Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh.

[...]

In another first, the latest U.S. aid package also includes funding to upgrade a number of American Hawk air defense missiles for use in Ukraine, Singh said. The Hawk missile is an older, surface-to-air guided missile that the U.S. no longer uses, and has longer range than the Stinger anti-air missiles the U.S. provided this year. The missiles will complement the Hawk launchers Spain recently committed to sending to Kyiv, she said.

[...]

The package also includes money to send 250 M1117 armored vehicles for the first time, as well as 40 riverine boats, and 1,100 Phoenix Ghost drones, according to a release from the State Department.
USA och Nederländerna presenterar ett nytt stödpaket. Vidare bekräftas att Ryssland fortfarande inte har eliminerat någon av Ukrainas 20 Himars-enheter.

How Western Tech In Iranian Drones Is Helping Russia Wage War On Ukraine
RFE/RL skrev:Over the past five years, Iranian officials and state media have touted the "indigenous" ingenuity in the Islamic republic's mass-produced Mohajer-6 combat drone, which Russia has deployed in its war against Ukraine.

But a new investigation by Schemes, the investigative unit of RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, has found that electronic components underpinning Tehran's production of the Mohajer-6 are far from homegrown.

[...]

But Schemes reporters found that the authorized Rotax distributor listed on the Austrian manufacturer's website advertised itself as a Rotax aircraft engines distributor for Iran as recently as December 2020.

The distributor, the Italian company Luciano Sorlini S.p.a., has posted multiple magazine advertisements on its websites in which it describes itself as a Rotax distributor for numerous countries. Prior to January 2021, Iran was listed among these countries.
Europa stödde motvilligt sanktionerna mot Iran, men efterlevnaden lämnar en del att önska.

U.K. Probes Stolen Rotax Engines Possibly Used In Iranian Drones
Aviation News skrev:Although Rotax has manufacturing facilities in China and Mexico, it’s believed that all of the genuine 900-series engines are built in its Gunskirchen, Austria, plant. AVweb reported on this factory in this video. It’s not known if China is capable of counterfeiting the 900-series engines and if so, why these would carry what appear to be original Rotax placards.
Det verkar inte handla om kinesiska kopior.

China’s Xi warns Putin not to use nuclear arms in Ukraine
POLITICO skrev:Chinese leader Xi Jinping made his most direct criticism yet of Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine on Friday, warning the Russian president not to resort to nuclear weapons and calling on visiting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to push for peace talks.
Tysklands förbundskanslers besök i Kina var kanske inte förgäves.

Gas storage facilities in Germany are no longer filling up – 99.26 percent
Germany Detail Zero skrev:However, the largest German gas storage facility in Rehden continued to increase, showing a filling level of 93.09 percent (+0.23 percent compared to the previous day). Several storage operators reported outflows. In Austria, the storage level was 93.45 percent nationwide (+0.15 percent), including the Haidach storage facility near Salzburg, which has so far only been connected to the German gas network and is of great importance for Bavaria with a level of 94.73 percent (+0.05 percent). A storage level of 95.04 (+0.03 percent) is reported across the EU, as the data from Friday shows.
Det varma vädret börjar ta slut, men allt som allt är Europas gaslager välfyllda.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Ukroboronprom told about a strike drone creation
Militarnyi skrev:The Ukrainian combat drone should be presented to the military by the end of this year.

[...]

The Ukroboronprom State Concern announced the development of Ukrainian weapons with a target range of up to 1,000 kilometers on October 17, in the midst of Russian airstrikes against Ukraine.

[...]

According to the concern, the Ukrainian development of its own complex is already at the final stage. No other details about these domestic weapons are announced due to secrecy.
Ukraina utvecklar egna långdistansvapen, med eller utan västerländsk hjälp.

Ukroboronprom establishes the production of 122-mm and 152-mm shells
Militarnyi skrev:The Defense industry of Ukraine has established the production of 122-mm and 152-mm artillery shells.

[...]

He also added that the production of 120-mm mines had already been established.

[...]

Oleksii Reznikov also emphasized that Ukraine currently does not plan to produce 155-mm ammunition for modern artillery systems.
Vidare satsar Ukraina på produktion av sovjetisk ammunition. Det tycks vara gott om västerländsk ammunition.

Dara Massicot tror på en rysk reträtt från Dnipros västra strand. Även ISW sällar sig till denna växande skara:
ISW skrev:Russian forces are setting conditions for a controlled withdrawal in northwestern Kherson Oblast, likely to avoid a disorderly rout from the right (west) bank of the Dnipro River.
Observera att Dnipros högra strand ligger väster om floden som rinner i en sydlig riktning.

In first, Iran acknowledges supplying drones to Russia
The Times of Israel skrev:Iran’s foreign minister on Saturday acknowledged for the first time that his country has supplied Russia with drones, insisting the transfer came before Moscow’s war on Ukraine that has seen the Iranian-made drones divebombing Kyiv.
Iran erkänner till slut vapenleveranserna till Ryssland. Det tog sin lilla tid, precis som med nedskjutningen av ett ukrainskt passagerarplan med 176 människor.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

“Why are you shooting at us?”: Separatist Commander: 60 percent of casualties to friendly fire
Germany Detail Zero skrev:Contract soldiers, reservists, separatists and mercenaries are deployed for Russia in the attack on Ukraine. Apparently, this makes the agreements extremely difficult. A military commander of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic states that friendly troops regularly attack each other.
Häpnadsväckande uppgifter. Olika ryska grupperingar sägs skjuta varandra.

Battalion of Russian conscripts destroyed in Luhansk Oblast, hundreds killed
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:A battalion of Russian conscripts from Voronezh Oblast (Russia) was destroyed near the village of Makiyivka, Svatove district, Luhansk Oblast by a Ukrainian strike; hundreds of Russian occupiers were killed.

[...]

"When it all started, the officers immediately ran away. In between the attacks, we tried to entrench, but the copters immediately spotted us and just shot us. Out of 570 people, 29 managed to survive, 12 more were wounded, and the rest are all dead."
Ännu en utplånad rysk bataljon. De ryssar som inte skjuts av sina egna elimineras av ukrainska försvarare.

Russian troops plead for help after Putin's latest offensive turns into 'death trap'
Daily Express skrev:The losses in Pavlivka are thought to be one of the worst single-operation losses for a marine brigade since the Chechen wars in the 1990s.

[...]

"We lost 300 people killed, wounded, and missing in four days. The command of the district hid this.

"How long will General Muradov and Akhmedov plan military operations? They call people meat."
De ryska förlusterna bara fortsätter. Detta är både ofattbart och ohållbart.

Dagens och gårdagens ISW-sammanfattningar bekräftar ovanstående omständigheter:
ISW skrev:DNR military commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky claimed that Russian friendly fire may have caused up to 60% of total Russian losses since mid-May.

[...]

Russian opposition sources reported that Ukrainian shelling near Makiivka, Luhansk Oblast may have killed up to 500 Russian mobilized personnel in one day.

[...]

Russian milbloggers amplified reports that the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade sustained severe losses during the recent offensive push towards Pavlivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Den 5 november ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,11 procentenheter till 95,17 procent och Tysklands gaslager med 0,15 procentenheter till 99,38 procent. Fullt än?

Conflict with Ukraine: October 2022
Levada skrev:Concern about the Ukrainian events remains at a high level. Support for the actions of the Russian Armed Forces remains high. Slightly more than half of the respondents support the announcement of partial mobilizations, but the opinion in various socio-demographic groups is heterogeneous. At the same time, the number of supporters of peace talks continues to grow.
Allt fler ryssar vill ha fredsförhandlingar, men det krävs två för att förhandla.

U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show it’s open to negotiate with Russia
Washington Post skrev:While U.S. officials share their Ukrainian counterparts’ assessment that Putin, for now, isn’t serious about negotiations, they acknowledge that President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ban on talks with him has generated concern in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war’s disruptive effects on the availability and cost of food and fuel are felt most sharply.
USA vill ändå att Ukraina ska upprätthålla illusionen om fredsförhandlingar.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence
RUSI skrev:The decision to supply a Western fighter would inherently be heavily influenced, and most likely ultimately decided, by political factors. In the long term, US-supplied aircraft are likely to form a large part of the Ukrainian Air Force inventory due to political, industrial and financial considerations. However, while Ukrainian airbases are still at high risk of Russian missile strikes, the long, high-quality runways and large hangers with extensive ground support equipment required to operate most US fighters would be difficult to build without being observed and hit. It is worth noting that of the currently available Western fighter aircraft that could possibly be suppled, the Swedish Saab Gripen C/D offers by far the most suitable candidate in terms of operational requirements. It was designed from the outset for ease of maintenance, and can be refuelled, re-armed and given basic maintenance by teams of just six ground crew using two vehicles on small airbases or highways in cold weather. 178 Moreover, only one of each crew needs to be a highly trained maintainer; the rest can be conscripts or even troops. 179 Conceptually, the Swedish Air Force has always emphasised low-level air superiority tactics from dispersed bases, in a similar manner to how the Ukrainian Air Force currently operates, and so the Gripen was designed with ground support equipment and maintenance requirements compatible with that approach. The electronic warfare suite on the Gripen C/D is also optimised specifically for countering Russian fighter and SAM radars. Other factors that make Gripen particularly suited to Ukrainian operational needs are that it can fire the very long-range European Meteor missile, which, thanks to its ramjet propulsion design, is less adversely affected by being launched from low and slow than traditional rocket-powered missiles such as R-27 or AIM-120 AMRAAM, and Gripen was also designed from the outset with an anti-ship capability.
En intressant rapport som bland annat diskuterar Ukrainas behov av västerländska stridsflygplan, inte minst Gripen.

Row brews in Iran over use of its drones in Ukraine war by Russia
The Guardian skrev:An internal rift over the supply of deadly drones to Russia for use in Ukraine has opened up in Iran, with a prominent conservative cleric and newspaper editor saying Russia is the clear aggressor in the war and the supply should stop.

[...]

A former Iranian ambassador to Moscow, Nematollah Izadi, said it appeared there had been no proper cooperation between the military and diplomatic wings of the Iranian state, possibly leaving the foreign ministry in the dark. It seemed one section of the government thought it profitable to sell drones to Moscow for the use in the war or otherwise, Izadi said, and “we seem to have succumbed to a deception operation by Russia, which, in my opinion, does not serve our national interests at all”.
Hur stor är enigheten i Irans regim?

Russia's Prigozhin admits interfering in U.S. elections
Reuters skrev:Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Monday he had interfered in U.S. elections and would continue doing so in future, the first such admission from a figure implicated by Washington in efforts to influence American politics.

[...]

Prigozhin, who is often referred to as "Putin's chef" because his catering company operates Kremlin contracts, has been formally accused of sponsoring Russia-based "troll farms" that seek to influence U.S. politics.

[...]

In September, he admitted to founding the Kremlin-aligned Wagner Group mercenary firm, which is active in Syria, Africa and Ukraine. Prigozhin had previously sued journalists for reporting that he was linked to Wagner.
Ännu ett erkännande av "Putins kock", tillika hjärnan bakom Wagnergruppen. Försöker Prigozjin framstå som Rysslands starke man?

Congress poised to back multiyear weapons purchases, LaPlante says
Defense News skrev:The Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer said he expects Congress to approve new authorities and spending to expand U.S. weapons production in a manner unseen since the Cold War.
Tror Putin verkligen att Ryssland har en chans att vinna ett nytt kallt krig?

Kremlin says retreat from Kherson is ‘undesirable but likely’
The Odessa Journal skrev:According to Meduza sources close to the Kremlin, the presidential administration has prepared several new manuals for Russian propagandists. They indicate how to talk about the situation in Kherson – to prepare “public opinion” in Russia for the fact that the city can be abandoned.

[...]

At the same time, according to sources, the Kremlin allegedly still expects that the Russian army will be able to launch a new large-scale offensive in Ukraine in the winter of 2023. The Kremlin is increasingly talking about possible negotiations with Ukraine to gain time and prepare the maximum number of mobilized Russians by this deadline. Western media noted that Odessa could be the potential target of this offensive. According to them, the Kremlin could target Odessa as “the main strategic prize in the next stage of the war.”
Ryssland kan inte ens ockupera Cherson, men satsar fortfarande på Odesa!
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Southeast Asia is a case study in Russia’s declining prospects as an arms exporter
The New York Times skrev:“I don’t think Russia can recover as a major arms exporter from this,” said Ian Storey, a political scientist at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore who studies security issues in Asia. “Not for a long time, if ever.”

[...]

From 2017 to 2021, South Korea eclipsed Russia as the region’s top arms supplier, providing 18 percent of the region’s arms imports, according to SIPRI data. No other exporter accounted for more than 14 percent.

[...]

Another reason to avoid purchasing Russian arms is to signal a neutral position on the invasion of Ukraine, said John Parachini, a senior defense researcher at the RAND Corporation.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 7 671 enheter, varav 1 445 stridsvagnar. Avmilitariseringen fortgår samtidigt som vapenexporten minskar:

1. BMP-2(K) (606 förluster)
2. KamAZ 6x6 (536 förluster)
3. Ural-4320 (497 förluster)
4. BTR-82A(M) (331 förluster)
5. MT-LB (320 förluster)
6. T-72B3 (225 förluster)
7. T-72B (202 förluster)
8. BMP-1(P) (199 förluster)
9. BMP-3 (186 förluster)
10. T-72B3 Obr. 2016 (182 förluster)
11. T-80BV (167 förluster)
12. BMD-2 (163 förluster)
13. MT-LBVM(K) (132 förluster)
14. BTR-80 (126 förluster)
15. Ural-4320 tanker (125 förluster)
16. GAZ Tigr-M (117 förluster)

Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting
The Economist skrev:Ever since Russia tightened the valves on natural-gas shipments to Europe, markets have feared that the continent could suffer an energy shortage this winter. Yet western Europe now has so much gas that last month the price briefly went negative. Although the recent price crash does not offer full protection against an energy crunch, it does make calamity less likely.

[...]

Winter is still coming, and the glut is unlikely to last. Gas costs €35 per mwh for delivery today, but €110 for a guaranteed shipment in December and €142 for one in February, once heaters turn on.
Denna situation kallas contango och innebär att marknadens deltagare är villiga att betala en premie för en råvaras terminspriser. Den som kan lagra gas har möjligheten att köpa billigt nu och sälja dyrt senare, men det är lättare sagt än gjort med fulla gaslager. Jämför de negativa oljepriserna under coronapandemin.

Den 8 november ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,12 procentenheter till 95,30 procent och Tysklands gaslager med 0,16 procentenheter till 99,54 procent. Nästan!

Fire in a Russian nightclub: occupier who fought in Ukraine suspected
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:Police detained an individual suspected of arson in a Russian café which resulted in a fire that killed 15 people. The suspect turned out to be a Russian soldier who had recently returned from Ukraine. He has already pleaded guilty.

[...]

No Kremlin-aligned media has specified that the suspect is a soldier.
Våldsamma krigsveteraner kan bli ett vanligt fenomen i Ryssland...
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Italy open to supplying air defence systems to Ukraine -official
Reuters skrev:The Italian coalition official, who declined to be named, said Rome was ready to provide Ukraine with a variety of air-defence systems, including the medium-range Franco-Italian SAMP/T and Italian Aspide, as well as portable Stinger missiles.
Skulle inte Meloni stå på Putins sida? :roll:

Putin's elite tremble as hardliners call for ‘Stalinist’ steps
Al Arabiya skrev:Insiders describe the Russian president as increasingly isolated, surrounded by a small group of hardliners and impervious to critical views. With its forces struggling to contain a Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Kremlin has dropped months of trying to insulate the country from the reality of the conflict.

[...]

“The mood of doom that everything has turned out this way is very strong, said Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of R Politik, a political consultancy.
Putins isolering gör det svårt att fatta informerade beslut.

Russia flew €140m in cash and captured Western weapons to Iran in return for deadly drones, source claims
Sky News skrev:A Russian military aircraft secretly transported the cash and three models of munition - a British NLAW anti-tank missile, a US Javelin anti-tank missile and a Stinger anti-aircraft missile - to an airport in Tehran in the early hours of 20 August, the source told Sky News, speaking on condition of anonymity to share sensitive information.

[...]

The source alleged that a further drone deal worth €200m (£174m) had been agreed between Tehran and Moscow in the past few days.
Dessa vapen har flera decennier på nacken och användes bland annat i kriget mot terrorismen. Har Iran verkligen inte lyckats få tillgång till dem tidigare?

Zelensky sets high bar for any peace talks with Putin
Axios skrev:“One more time: restoration of territorial integrity, respect for the U.N. charter, compensation for all material losses caused by the war, punishment for every war criminal and guarantees that this does not happen again," Zelensky said in an address on Monday night.

[...]

However, Putin has said Russia won't negotiate over the four regions of Ukraine that he unilaterally claimed to have annexed into Russia — a move widely condemned as illegal under international law.
Putin vill fortfarande inte förhandla. Han har som sagt svårt att fatta informerade beslut under sin isolering.

Peace Talks Between Russia and Ukraine: Mission Impossible
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik skrev:President Vladimir Putin escalated Russia’s war on Ukraine in September 2022, announcing a partial mobilisation and repeating his threat to use nuclear weapons. But what really ended efforts to bring about peace – which had continued since the 24 February invasion – was the proclaimed annexation of the Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Cherson. Since his election in 2019, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly called on Putin to agree to a personal meeting, even in the first weeks of this year’s Russian invasion. But on 4 October 2022, in response to the actions of the Russian side, he signed a decree rejecting direct talks. Ever since the beginning of the Russian aggression in 2014, and all the more so since 24 February 2022, the course of Ukrainian-Russian negotiations has been highly dependent on the situation in the battlefield and the broader political context.
En bra sammanfattning av förhandlingarna mellan Ukraina och Ryssland hittills.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Kherson: Russia to withdraw troops from key Ukrainian city
BBC skrev:Russia's military has been ordered to pull out of the Ukrainian city of Kherson, the only regional capital it captured after invading in February.

[...]

But their decision to pull back across the Dnipro river was treated with caution by Ukrainian officials. Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak warned that it was premature to treat the announcement at face value.

[...]

The withdrawal was announced shortly after Russian media said the deputy leader of Kherson, Kirill Stremousov, had been killed in a car crash.
Rysslands försvarsminister Sergej Sjojgu beordrar den ryska militären att lämna staden Cherson i södra Ukraina. Befälhavaren Sergej Surovikin säger att det var ”ett svårt beslut”. Ukraina befarar dock att tillbakadragandet kan vara en fälla. Samtidigt påstås kollaboratören Kirill Stremousov ha dött i en bilolycka.
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: söndag 18 september 2022 10:45 Min bedömning är fortfarande att republikanerna ta över båda kamrarna i Kongressen efter valet i november.
Just nu har de två partierna fått 48 platser vardera i senaten. Fyra platser återstår. Förmodligen blir det inget skifte i senaten, och definitivt ingen ”röd våg”. Väntade Putin med tillbakadragandet från Cherson för att inte skada sina nyttiga idioter i USA?

Russian troops blow up multiple bridges in occupied western-bank Kherson Oblast – media (updated)
Euromaidan Press skrev:According to a local Telegram channel, the Russians blew up bridges in multiple locations in the western bank Kherson oblast. Russian media say all bridges and overpasses get destroyed to slow down the Ukrainian advancement.
Eller så hade Ryssland inget val.

Senior Russian-appointed official in occupied Kherson ‘killed in road accident’
CNN skrev:His death was also announced by the Russian-appointed “head” of Kherson, Vladimir Saldo, who wrote in a statement on Telegram: “It is very hard for me to say that Kirill Stremousov died today. He died on the territory of the Kherson region, moving in a car that got into an accident.”
Enligt sociala medier bekräftade Saldo bilolyckan två timmar innan den ägde rum...

Putin to Skip G-20 Indonesia Summit, Facing Cold Shoulder
Bloomberg skrev:Vladimir Putin won’t attend the Group of 20 summit next week, people familiar with the planning said, as the Kremlin seeks to protect the president from potential high-level tensions over his invasion of Ukraine.

[...]

Russian officials hoped the summit would allow Putin to have informal contact with US and European counterparts but it became clear this wasn’t going to happen, according to Andrey Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Russian International Affairs Council. “The goal is for Putin and Biden to meet but Biden doesn’t appear to be ready for this,” he said.
Putin vågar förstås inte lämna sin bunker.

Putin ally meets Iran leader as Moscow deepens Tehran ties
Reuters skrev:Russian state media said Patrushev discussed the situation in Ukraine and measures to combat "Western interference" in both countries' internal affairs with his Iranian security counterpart Ali Shamkhani.
Två flugor slås i en smäll om båda regimerna faller samtidigt.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Ukrainian troops reportedly enter Snihurivka as Russia announces retreat from Kherson
The Kyiv Independent skrev:Russia's gradual retreat reached a sudden climax on Nov. 9, when Moscow announced the withdrawal of its forces from the right bank of the Dnipro River, including the city of Kherson.

Upon the recommendation of Sergei Surovikin, commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered the retreat of all remaining troops to the left bank of the Dnipro.

[...]

According to an on-the-ground report, Ukrainian forces have already entered several settlements on the way to Kherson on Nov. 9, including the strategic town of Snihurivka, Mykolaiv Oblast.
Staden Snihurivka var tidigare Rysslands administrativa centrum för den ockuperade delen av Mykolajiv oblast. Ett stort bakslag både militärt och politiskt:
Rob Lee skrev:As a reminder, Russia is now abandoning territory that it claims is part of Russia, and suggested was protected by its nuclear umbrella. 5/

Also keep in mind that parts of Crimea will be within GMLRS range once Russia abandons the right bank. A number of railway stations, ammunition depots, and other logistics points will be within HIMARS range as well. 6/
Nu hamnar den sista ockuperade regionen inom räckhåll för Himars! Detta tillsammans med den förstörda Kertjbron kan förklara varför Ryssland så desperat attackerade Pavlivka med hundratals förluster (se ovan). Ryssland försökte helt enkelt skapa en buffert till järnvägen i södra Ukraina.

Ukrainian Armed Forces liberate another two villages in Kherson Oblast
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:Ukrainian defenders have liberated the villages of Pravdyne and Kalynivske in Kherson Oblast.
Ukraina avancerar i Cherson-området.

Pentagon: Russia has likely lost half its tanks in Ukraine
The Hill skrev:Russia has likely lost half its tanks, used up most of its precision-guided weapons and suffered tens of thousands of casualties so far in its war against Ukraine, the Pentagon’s top policy official said Tuesday.

[...]

“Russia will emerge from this war weaker than it went in,” he predicted. “They have suffered tens of thousands of casualties in eight months — orders of magnitude more than [the Soviet Union] experienced in Afghanistan in 10 years.”

Kahl added that Russian forces have “probably lost half of their main battle tanks in the entire Russian military,” and they’ve “bogged down more than 80 percent of their land force in Ukraine.”
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 7 717 enheter, varav 1 460 stridsvagnar.

Värmen slår till på lördag – kan bli nytt rekord
UNT skrev:Det tidigare värmerekordet för Uppsala i november ligger på 15,6 grader och uppmättes i början av månaden 2020. I Svealand har temperaturerna i november kommit upp i 15-16 grader endast under åren 1899, 1902, 1978, 1999, 2015 och 2020, enligt SMHI.
Den 9 november ökade EU:s gaslager till 95,36 procent och Tysklands gaslager till 99,55 procent - inte långt ifrån det tidigare rekordet på 99,66 procent:
Enceladus skrev: tisdag 01 november 2022 6:55 Tyskland har aldrig någonsin tidigare haft lika mycket gas i sina lager som nu. I relativa tal är det fortfarande en bit till rekordet från hösten 2019.
I helgen kan det bli ett nytt rekord!
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Military briefing: how Russia’s Kherson retreat changes Ukraine war
Financial Times skrev:Speaking at an event in New York, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff Mark Milley, estimated Russia had up to 30,000 troops north of the Dnipro in that area. “This is going to take them days and perhaps even weeks to pull those forces south of that river,” he said.

[...]

Kherson, captured in March, “is the one objective that Russia achieved among all its plans”, said Ben Wallace, the UK defence secretary. “And now they’ve given it up. Which must beg the question in the Kremlin: what was it all for, all those lost Russian lives?”

[...]

Thursday’s development comes as the US assessed that both sides had sustained heavy losses. Milley said more than 100,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded in Ukraine, while Kyiv probably suffered similar losses.
Ryssland behöver tid för att dra sig tillbaka från Dnipros västra strand. Ett gyllene tillfälle att tillfoga ryssarna stora förluster enligt överstelöjtnant Paasikivi.

Ukraine attacks Russian units in Kherson, saying Moscow didn’t request a ‘green corridor’ for withdrawal
CNBC skrev:In late September, Putin had hailed the annexation of Kherson, following a fake referendum in the region, saying residents there were “becoming our citizens forever.” Six weeks later, those words ring hollow.

[...]

Serhiy Khlan, a member of the Kherson Regional Council, said that the Russians were moving their equipment to the left bank of the Dnieper River and that Ukraine’s forces were destroying it.

Ukraine’s army chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said on Telegram Thursday that Kyiv could not yet confirm whether Russia was indeed pulling out of the region, but said Ukrainian troops had advanced four miles in the past 24 hours and recaptured 12 settlements.
Ukraina passar på att eliminera utrustning som ryska styrkor kan använda i framtiden när ockupanterna genomför en reträtt över floden Dnipro.

MilitaryLand.net rapporterar att Ukraina närmar sig Cherson. NOËL och Tendar påstår att Ukraina redan har nått Tomyna Balka i syd och Novokairy i nordost.
Skriv svar