Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus
Inlägg: 9694
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Putins krigslagar ändrar inget på slagfältet
DN skrev:I själva verket omfattar de ryska krigslagarna ett annat lands, internationellt erkända, territorium. Vilket gör att krigslagarna, liksom själva de illegala annekteringarna, blir alltmer värdelösa papper i takt med att Ukraina under sin motoffensiv återerövrar ockuperat land.

Det måste ses som ett misslyckande att Putin inför krigslagar i områden han knappt kontrollerar militärt. Det ändrar ingenting i den verkliga krigföringen, där de ryska styrkorna trycks tillbaka på flera fronter. Redan inom den närmaste veckan kan Cherson, den första regionhuvudstaden som Ryssland erövrade i början av kriget, bli befriad. Det gör att Kremls olika dekret snart kan gå till pappersåtervinningen.
Putin inför krigslagar i fyra av de regioner som Ryssland påstår sig ha annekterat. Samtidigt evakuerar ryssarna en av dessa regioner, nämligen Cherson.

Israel offers help with air-attack alerts, but Ukraine wants interceptors
Reuters skrev:Israel offered on Wednesday to help Ukrainians develop air attack alerts for civilians, signalling a softening of a policy of non-military intervention in the war after Kyiv appealed for ways to counteract Iranian-made drones being used by Russia.

Ukraine's ambassador, however, asked for systems that would shoot down the drones instead, while Defence Minister Benny Gantz said Israel was firm on not supplying Kyiv with weapons.

[...]

Ukrainian Ambassador Yevgen Kornichuk told Reuters the system on offer was "not relevant any more", and confirmed the authenticity of an embassy letter, leaked to Israel's Walla news agency, urgently requesting to buy Iron Beam, Barak-8, Patriot, Iron Dome, David's Sling and Arrow interceptors from Israel.
Israel går till val den 1 november 2022 - det femte valet på fyra år. För närvarande finns det 13 partier i den lagstiftande församlingen Knesset. Två av partiledarna - Netanyahu och Lieberman - slåss om proryska röster. Valutgången kan påverka Israels linje. Dessa två partiledare står dock på olika sidor.

Russia Shrinks Forces in Syria, a Factor in Israeli Strategy There
The New York Times skrev:Russia recently redeployed critical military hardware and troops from Syria, according to three senior officials based in the Middle East, underscoring how its faltering invasion of Ukraine has eroded Moscow’s influence elsewhere and removing one of several obstacles to Israeli support for Ukraine.

[...]

Iran’s growing military support for Russia, coupled with rising Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilians, have already resurfaced a debate in Israel in recent days about whether Israel should provide arms to Ukraine. Israel produces several air-defense systems that might be useful to Ukraine in shooting down missiles and drones, including the short-range Iron Dome, which Israel uses against rockets fired from the Gaza Strip, and the longer-range Barak 8.

[...]

Israel is providing Ukraine with basic intelligence about Iranian drones used by Russia, and has also offered to examine the remains of drones that crashed in Ukraine, according to senior Ukrainian and Israeli officials.
Ryska motgångar på slagfältet kan också förändra Israels kalkyl.

Where Have All the Men in Moscow Gone?
The New York Times skrev:On Monday, Moscow’s mayor announced that mobilization in the capital had officially ended. But many businesses were already feeling a downturn. In the two weeks following the call-up, the number of orders in Moscow restaurants with an average check of more than 1,500 rubles — about $25 — decreased by 29 percent over the same period last year. Sberbank, Russia’s largest lender, closed 529 branches in September alone, according to Kommersant newspaper.

[...]

At the Chop-Chop barbershop, Mr. Ermilov, the founder, said something similar. In late September, he left for Israel, and he now plans to open a business that has no physical presence in his home country and that is “less exposed to geographic risks.”
Förhoppningsvis röstar dessa ryssar inte på Netanyahu eller Lieberman. :roll:

Ska stoppa fartsyndare – misstänks nu användas i kriget i Ukraina
Aftonbladet skrev:I skåpen sitter så kallade DSLR-kameror av märket Canon. Exakt likadana kameror har hittats i ryska hemmabyggda drönare.

[...]

Totalt ska ett hundratal kameror runt om i landet ha stulits de senaste månaderna, enligt Trafikverket.
Rysslands militär, som i Moskva brukar beskrivas som ”världens näst mäktigaste”, faller sönder inför våra ögon. :lol:
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9694
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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New Italy government will be pro-NATO, pro-Europe, says Meloni
Reuters skrev:Giorgia Meloni, who is expected to be Italy's next prime minister, threw down the gauntlet to her right-wing coalition partners on Wednesday, saying her new government would be pro-NATO and fully a part of Europe.

Her uncompromising statement came after her conservative ally Silvio Berlusconi reiterated his sympathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin and accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of triggering the war.

[...]

"On one thing I have been, am, and will always be clear. I intend to lead a government with a clear and unequivocal foreign policy line," she said. "Anyone who does not agree with this cornerstone cannot be part of the government."
Meloni viker sig inte för Putins hantlangare Berlusconi och Salvini. Men hur stabil blir en regering med dessa tre partiledare? Samtidigt avgår Truss i UK...

Europe’s Gas Stores Are Almost Full. But There’s a Catch
Bloomberg skrev:Europe has worked hard to fill up natural gas reserves for the winter, but the inconvenient truth is that national governments have little to no control over those supplies.

Only about 10% of the gas in storage facilities from Italy to the Netherlands is under the direct control of public officials through national strategic reserves, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

[...]

Germany is dependent on others because its storage covers only 25% of annual demand. Poland is also on shaky ground. The European Union’s fifth most populous country with 38 million people has less capacity than Slovakia, which has a population of just 5.5 million.

[...]

Austria tends to function as a supplier in winter, with more than two-thirds of its storage capacity usually available to other countries. The Czech Republic and Hungary also have more capacity than needed for domestic use.
Bloomberg har en intressant artikel om EU:s gaslager. Lagren är nästan helt fyllda i de flesta länder, men de är ojämnt fördelade. Det blir viktigt med solidaritet.

Russian weapons expert caught admitting Kremlin uses Iranian drones
The Telegraph skrev:A Russian weapons expert was caught on live TV accidentally admitting that the Kremlin is resorting to Iranian drones to attack Ukraine despite painting them to pretend they are locally made.

[...]

But the British Ministry of Defence had a different interpretation. It said that Russia has bought Iranian drones because it doesn’t have the knowledge to produce them and because the Kremlin's stocks of high-precision missiles are running low.
Samtidigt lämnar ryssarna staden Cherson - med alla tvättmaskiner. Den ryska fasaden rasar i allt snabbare takt.

Bombing to Lose: Why Airpower Cannot Salvage Russia’s Doomed War in Ukraine
Foreign Affairs skrev:Nor is there any case in which a bombing campaign has caused the targeted population to revolt against their own government. For example, in several major wars in the second half of the twentieth century, Washington sought to foment popular uprisings against enemy regimes by attacking civilian infrastructure. Thus, during the Korean War, the United States destroyed 90 percent of power generation in North Korea; in the Vietnam War, it knocked out nearly as much power in North Vietnam; and in the Gulf War, American air attacks disrupted 90 percent of power generation in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. But in none of these cases did the population rise up. Strikingly, the United States did not bother attacking Iraq’s electric power grid or civilians during its 2003 invasion. Concentrating instead on effective military strategy, it was able to easily defeat Iraq’s army and topple the Saddam dictatorship in six weeks.

[...]

Putin can punish Ukrainians, as his air campaign has shown. But lacking an effective hammer-and-anvil strategy of his own, he is only losing faster. The only question is whether he will accept a new iron curtain separating Russia from Europe, or continue fighting pointlessly to the finish and risk losing parts of Russia.
Blir det slutet för Putin - eller hela Ryssland?
Lennart Petersen
Inlägg: 3087
Blev medlem: söndag 21 augusti 2011 22:53

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: torsdag 20 oktober 2022 16:32 [u

Blir det slutet för Putin - eller hela Ryssland?
Vi får se. Ryssland är ju inte något särskilt enhetligt land, det är en federation med ett stort antal autonoma republiker och områden med olika särprägel. Tjejenien,Dagestan, Burjätien, Tannu Tuva ... det lär finnas ca 100 nationaliteter.
Med tanke på det enorma förrådet av kärnvapen är det nog annars önskvärt med en central kontroll från Moskva.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9694
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Iranians in Crimea helped Russia target Ukraine with drones - White House
Reuters skrev:The White House said on Thursday that Iranians have been on the ground in Crimea helping Russians target Ukraine with Iranian drones, and that U.S. efforts to negotiate a return to the Iran nuclear deal have been set aside for the time being.
USA bekräftar att Iran har militär på plats som hjälper Ryssland. Därmed är Iran en aktiv deltagare i kriget.

France, Spain and Portugal agree to build Barcelona-Marseille gas pipeline
Reuters skrev:Spain, Portugal and France said on Thursday they will build a sea-based pipeline to carry hydrogen and gas between Barcelona and Marseille, substituting plans to extend the so-called MidCat pipeline across the Pyrenees that France opposed.
Samtidigt utvecklas Europas gasinfrastruktur - på kort sikt för fossilgas och i framtiden för vätgas.

Putin’s Looming Tanker Crisis
Navigating Russia skrev:Sanctions will hit Moscow’s seaborne oil exports harder than many expect—and much more than the Kremlin is letting on. Russia’s oil export system will be severely constrained under sanctions since it relies heavily on the physical and financial infrastructure of Ukraine’s allies. This deficiency arises from two things: pipelines to the wrong places and an underdeveloped tanker fleet. Together, they threaten to strand in country up to half Moscow’s export oil—over 3 million barrels a day—once sanctions are fully in place. The price cap mechanism provides a path back to market for Moscow’s stranded barrels by permitting them to access prohibited infrastructure—though at a price.
Den ryska ekonomin kan försämras ytterligare.

With GOP skeptics of Ukraine aid poised to gain seats in Congress, lawmakers look to lock in a huge military assistance package
NBC News skrev:Amid concerns that a new Congress could take a more skeptical view of aid to Ukraine, lawmakers from both parties are looking to lock in billions of dollars in military assistance to Kyiv before newly elected members are sworn in in January, according to a lawmaker and congressional staffers.

[...]

The amount would be enough “to make sure [Ukraine] can get through the year,” a Republican senator with knowledge of the matter told NBC News. “It’ll make the $12 billion look like pocket change.”

The new aid package, which most likely would be part of an omnibus spending bill, could be within the range of roughly $50 billion, congressional aides and a source close to the Ukraine government said. The Biden administration has not yet made a formal request for new funding.
Ryssland har ingen chans att vinna ett utdraget utnötningskrig.

Zelensky: Russia mines Kakhovka dam, threatens to flood Kherson
The Kyiv Independent skrev:"If Russia is preparing such a terrorist attack, if it is seriously considering such a scenario, it means that the terrorists are very clearly aware that they will not be able to hold not only to Kherson but the entire south of our country, including Crimea," Zelensky said in his evening address. He said that the world needs to make it clear to Russia that attacks on the Kakhovka dam "will mean exactly the same as the use of weapons of mass destruction."
Det skulle inte vara första gången Ryssland använder den brända jordens taktik, men då tvingas Putin erkänna sig besegrad.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9694
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russian finance ministry unlocks $16 billion from rainy day fund to plug government deficit
Yahoo Finance skrev:Russia's finance ministry on Thursday said it was drawing down 1 trillion roubles ($16.25 billion) from the country's National Wealth Fund (NWF) to help cover the government's budget deficit this year.
Klockan tickar.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20
ISW skrev:Russian sources continued to claim that Russian forces are consolidating limited regained positions in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on October 20 despite Ukrainian reports that Ukraine has liberated all but 1.8% of Kharkiv Oblast.
Befrielsen är nära!

Russia’s military aircraft exports are headed for a nosedive
Defense News skrev:Now the Ukraine war and ensuing sanctions are having a devastating impact on the Russian aerospace sector. Sanctions are crippling the Russian capacity to finish the development of, much less mass produce, next-generation combat vehicles such as the Su-57 and Su-75. Many Russian manufacturers depend on imported advanced machine tools. And analysis of the remains of Russia’s missiles, drones, and aircraft downed in Ukraine has revealed that they contain Western components and subsystems that can no longer be legally exported to Russia.

Russia’s Aerospace Forces also need to replace warplanes lost in combat — including some number of Su-35s.

[...]

Reportedly, Russia traded more than 60 Su-35 to Iran in exchange for several thousand drones that they are now using to terrorize Ukrainian civilians and disabling elements of Ukrainian critical infrastructure.
Nu öppnas nya möjligheter för flera länder att ersätta den ryska vapenexporten.

Putin’s War in Ukraine May Destroy Russia
WSJ skrev:The Western media for decades has hailed Vladimir Putin as a great strategist. But if the past eight months have proved one thing, it’s that this strategic wizard often achieves the opposite of his intentions.
Mästerstrategen slår till igen! Här är en intressant Twitter-tråd som tyder på att Putin saknar verklighetsförankring.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9694
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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EU to give 18 bln euros to Kyiv next year to help run Ukraine
Reuters skrev:The European Union will give Kyiv 1.5 billion euros a month in 2023 to help run Ukraine as it fights back Russia's invading troops, the head of the bloc's executive said on Friday.

[...]

"It is very important for Ukraine to have a predictable and stable flow of income," she said, adding that Kyiv estimated its monthly needs at 3-4 billion euros "for the basics".
Västvärlden kan backa upp Ukraina hur länge som helst.

US State Department: Russia is exploring supply arrangements with North Korea
The Kyiv Independent skrev:Russia's leadership is working on agreements with North Korea on providing the wares for its war against Ukraine that Russia is "unable to produce or to acquire through other means" due to export controls and sanctions, according to the U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price.

Russia may be turning to countries like Iran and North Korea "out of desperation," but "it doesn't make it any less dangerous," said Price.
Hur länge kan Iran och Nordkorea backa upp Ryssland? :roll:

Iranian Drones’ Role in Ukraine War Risks Deepening Tehran’s Rift With West
WSJ skrev:In exchange for help in Ukraine, Iran has pushed for access to Russian weaponry in return. Iranian officials and advisers say the purchase of Russia’s newest generation Su-35 fighters tops their shopping list of military equipment. Despite its extensive arsenal of drones and missiles, Iran’s aging 1970s air force is no match for the country’s adversaries in the region.

But Russia has long been reluctant to deliver heavy weaponry due to concerns over international sanctions, a lack of large-scale banking channels, and concerns about alienating Saudi Arabia, which Moscow is eager to draw into a broader commercial and security partnership.
Mellanöstern riskerar att dras in i kriget i Ukraina.

10 Iranians killed in Ukrainian strikes - report
Jerusalem Post skrev:"The Russians took Iranian instructors to the territory of the temporarily occupied Kherson Region and Crimea to launch Shahed-136 kamikaze drones," the government body alleged, citing Ukrainian underground resistance. "They teach the Russians how to use kamikaze drones, and directly monitor the launch of drones on Ukrainian civilian targets, including strikes on Mykolaiv and Odesa."

Pentagon Press Secretary Brig.-Gen. Pat Ryder stated on Thursday that "Iranians have been on the ground in Ukraine to assist Russia with the drone operations there."
Den som ger sig in i leken får leken tåla!

SSO: Iranian instructors were spotted in Belarus — they teach Russians to launch kamikaze drones
Babel skrev:According to the latest data, the Russians have complete control over two air bases in the territory of Belarus — in Baranovichi and Lida. And in the village of Mykulichi, Gomel region, a group of Iranian instructors, officers of the KIVR IRI was spotted. They are heavily guarded by Rosguards and FSB officers.
Belarus är förstås redan indraget i kriget.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9694
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 22
ISW skrev:Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to create rifts within the Russian government by publicizing the so-called “Wagner line” of fortifications in northeastern Ukraine, which appears misaligned with Kremlin-led narratives on the course of the war. Prigozhin and Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels announced that Russian regional officials paused the extension of the Wagner Line fortifications that run behind the line of contact in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts and into Russia’s Belgorod Oblast.[16] Prigozhin accused the Russian bureaucracy—which he characterized as ”bureaucrat-enemies”—of ”directly opposing the interests of the population” and not protecting the Russian population by supporting the construction of the line. The Russian nationalist community has repeatedly accused the Kremlin of failing to defend the Belgorod Oblast border, and Prigozhin may be attempting to amplify their demands. The Kremlin is likely attempting to maintain its limited framing of the war, which will likely continue to upset the nationalist community that is seemingly concerned by the lack of defenses around Belgorod Oblast. Prigozhin and Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels previously indicated that there is an ongoing schism within the Kremlin’s power circles between officials that are hesitant to continue the war due to personal interest and those in favor of Russian total victory.[17]

Russian maps show that Prigozhin’s proposed Wagner Line extension would defend the border between Belgorod Oblast and Ukraine’s Sumy, Kharkiv, and Luhansk oblasts, but notably would not cover northern Luhansk Oblast up to the line of contact, placing it at odds with Kremlin promises to defend all of Luhansk.[18] Other maps show that the Luhansk-Donetsk Wagner Line segment will largely only defend the territory of Luhansk Oblast that Russian proxy forces controlled prior to their February 24 full-scale invasion. The line covers some newly occupied settlements like Lysychansk, Zolote, and Popasna, but excludes Kreminna and Severodonetsk.[19] Prigozhin and Wagner commanders are likely preparing to defend the positions they think they can realistically hold, not the present extent of Russian lines or all of the territory the Kremlin claims to have annexed, and are likely not confident in Russia’s ability to defend settlements north of Lysychansk such as Kreminna and Svatove.
Har Ryssland insett att den norra delen av Luhansk oblast är "taktiskt förlorad"? :roll:

Zelenskyj: ”Storskalig katastrof” om Ryssland spränger damm
DN skrev:Kraftverksdammen Kachovka är 30 meter hög och över tre kilometer lång. Den rymmer 18 miljoner kubikmeter vatten och är en av de största dammanläggningarna längs Dniprofloden.

Området kring verket kontrolleras av Ryssland – som Zelenskyj nu menar har minerat dammen med avsikt att spränga den.

– Skulle dammen förstöras kommer Norra Krimkanalen helt enkelt att försvinna, sade presidenten i ett tv-sänt tal på torsdagskvällen.
Mycket tyder på att en befrielse av Cherson närmar sig. Är Putin desperat nog att spränga kraftverksdammen Kachovka? I övrigt kan noteras att svenska tidningar allt oftare använder det ukrainska namnet på floden Dnipro. Huvuddelen av floden flyter genom Ukraina, och nu ses landet inte längre som en lydstat.

Hungary to Ratify NATO Expansion by Mid-December, Minister Says
Bloomberg skrev:Hungary will approve the expansion the the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to include Finland and Sweden by mid-December at the latest, Cabinet Minister Gergely Gulyas said at a government briefing on Saturday.

The eastern European Union country is one of two remaining holdouts among NATO’s members over the inclusion of the countries who applied to join after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Turkey is the other.
Bättre sent än aldrig, men Orbans förhalande kan ändå få långtgående konsekvenser för Ungern, framför allt i EU-sammanhang.

More than 20,000 convicts have been drafted out of Russian prisons, says Russia Behind Bars foundation
Meduza skrev:The number of convicts conscripted for the war in Ukraine out of Russian prisons has exceeded 20,000. The Russian news outlet Agentstvo (“Agency”) reported this figure, citing Olga Romanova, the head of Russia Behind Bars (RBB), a non-profit advocate for the incarcerated.

A week ago, this estimate was closer to 15,000. Romanova chalks up the abrupt increase to the fact that military recruitment has begun in Siberian penal colonies, and also among the citizens of CIS member countries.
Detta föreställer inte ett land som gör anspråk på att ha världens näst mäktigaste militär...

Russian fighter jet crashes in Siberia, killing two crew members
The Guardian skrev:A Russian warplane has crashed into a residential building in the Siberian city of Irkutsk, killing both crew members – the second such fatal incident in a Russian residential area in six days involving a Sukhoi fighter plane.

The crashes appear to reflect the growing strain that the fighting in Ukraine has put on the Russian air force. The Irkutsk governor, Igor Kobzev, said the Su-30 fighter jet came down on a private, two-storey building housing two families. There were no casualties on the ground.

[...]

The crash came less than a week after an Su-34 bomber crashed near an apartment building in the Sea of Azov port of Yeysk and exploded in a giant fireball, killing 15 people and injuring a further 19.
Har Ryssland tagit sig vatten över huvudet?
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9694
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Zelenskiy calls on West to warn Russia not to blow up dam
Reuters skrev:The drop off in shooting and an absence of Russian armour movement in the sector, they said, indicated the Russians were short of ammunition and equipment. The only sign of fighting was the occasional crump of an exploding shell in the distance.

"They've been shooting less starting about three weeks ago," said Myhailo, 42, who like other soldiers deployed with him withheld his last name. "And their drones are less active."
Ryssland kan inte vinna ett utnötningskrig. Nu börjar detta bli uppenbart på slagfältet.

EU should use Russian frozen assets to help Ukraine, says Estonian PM
Egypt Independent skrev:Dam mining “pure terrorism”: Kallas called the alleged mining of a critical dam on the Dnipro river in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region – which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned to the Council on a video address on Thursday – “pure terrorism.”

[...]

“If Russian terrorists blow up this dam, more than 80 settlements, including Kherson, will be in the zone of rapid flooding. Hundreds of thousands of people may suffer. Water supply to a large part of southern Ukraine could be destroyed. This Russian terrorist attack could leave Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant without water for cooling – water for ZNPP is taken from the Kakhovka reservoir,” Zelensky said.
Västvärlden måste tydliggöra att terrorism inte lönar sig.

Ukraine troops say Russian woes could preface pullback in south
Reuters skrev:To the Ukrainian soldiers entrenched north of the Russian-held city of Kherson, a recent drop-off in Russian shellfire and armour movements signals that their foes dug into a nearby tree line are suffering serious manpower, supply and hardware woes.
Ännu fler tecken på att befrielsen av Cherson är nära.

Russia’s Counterpart To NATO Is On The Brink Of Collapse
Yahoo Finance skrev:The Collective Security Treaty Organization, better known by its initials, CSTO—or by Moscow’s aspiration that it should be an equal counterpart to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—is now on the brink of collapse, yet another case of the collateral damage Russia has suffered in the post-Soviet space from President Vladimir Putin’s disastrous war against Ukraine. When the CSTO was created in 1992, Russia and five other post-Soviet states were members; a year later, it had grown to nine. But in the intervening years, it contracted to six. Now it is becoming more clear that, by next year, the CSTO, which Moscow had placed so much hope in, will most likely be reduced to only three: Russia, Belarus and Tajikistan. Moreover, after Tajikistani President Emomali Rahmon’s attack on Putin at the Tashkent summit of regional leaders earlier this month, it is entirely possible that this much-ballyhooed military alliance will be left with only two members (Centralasia.media, October 14). Indeed, the signs of the collapse of this Russian project are now so obvious that one Moscow security analyst, Georgy Filin, argues that “the CSTO is repeating the fate of the Warsaw Pact” (Versia.ru, October 17).
Är Putin århundradets största geopolitiska katastrof?

CNN Exclusive: After Ukraine, Biden administration turns to Musk’s satellite internet for Iran
CNN skrev:The White House has engaged in talks with Elon Musk about the possibility of setting up SpaceX’s satellite internet service Starlink inside Iran, multiple officials familiar with the discussions told CNN.

[...]

If a plan is enacted, it would be the second major theater this year — along with Ukraine — where the US government has turned to Starlink to help provide crucial telecommunication services, even as questions swirl around Musk’s reliability in his dealings with the US government.

“He’s a loose cannon we can never predict,” said a senior US defense official familiar with the government’s discussions with Musk and SpaceX about Ukraine.
Världens rikaste man är på väg att bli universums herre. Har Elon Musk fått för mycket makt?
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9694
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Israeli Strike Targeted Iranian Drone Assembly Site Near Damascus, Syrian Rights Monitor Says
Haaretz skrev:A Friday airstrike near Damascus destroyed an Iranian-backed drone manufacturing and weapons storage site, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported on Sunday.

Widely believed to be carried out by Israel, the nighttime strike successfully targeted equipment used to assemble Iranian drones at Dimas military airport near the Lebanese border, the rights monitor claimed. A radar and runway were also apparently damaged.
Enligt sociala medier tillverkades på denna plats drönare som Ryssland använder i Ukraina.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 7 498 enheter, varav 1 407 stridsvagnar och 40 uråldriga T-62:or. Ryssland behöver ny vapenmateriel.

‘We Heard It, We Saw It, Then We Opened Fire’
The New York Times skrev:Despite the hurdles, the Ukrainian military is now routinely shooting down more than 70 percent of the Shahed-136 drones Russia purchased from Iran in August, Yuriy Sak, an adviser to the Ukrainian minister of defense, said in an interview.

Ukraine shot down the first such drone in the country’s east on Sept. 13 and has since downed at least 237, the Ukrainian military said in a statement last week. “We are trying to quickly adapt to the new reality,” Mr. Sak said.
Israels Iron Dome sägs stoppa ungefär 90 procent av alla inkommande raketer. Ukraina behöver komma upp i den nivån.

Gas storage facilities in Germany continue to fill up in gradual steps
Germany Detail Zero skrev:The largest German gas storage facility in Rehden shows a filling level of 87.99 percent, with +0.45 percent being stored here compared to the previous day. On the other hand, gas was delivered from storage facilities at EKB, KGE, OMV and Uniper on Friday, as the data continues to show. In Austria, the storage level was 88.48 percent nationwide (+0.33 percent), including the Haidach storage facility near Salzburg, which has so far only been connected to the German gas network and is of great importance for Bavaria with a level of 88 .12 percent (+0.41 percent). EU-wide, a storage level of 93.17 (+0.11 percent) is reported, as the data from Saturday shows.
Putin hade inte ens tur med vädret!

Gas storage facilities in Germany continue to fill up – 97.18 percent
Germany Detail Zero skrev:The gas storage facilities in Germany continue to fill up – and again at a slightly higher pace. As of Saturday night, reservoirs were 97.18 percent full, up 0.35 percent from the previous day, data from the Association of European Gas Infrastructure Managers on Sunday showed.

[...]

A storage level of 93.43 (+0.25 percent) is reported across the EU, as the data from Sunday shows.
Idag blev Xi omvald för tredje gången. Europa tackar för hans covid-19-strategi som ger lägre gaspriser över hela världen!

Från dagens ISW-sammanfattning:
ISW skrev:ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, October 23. This report focuses on Russian Defense Minister Shoigu's several calls with his western counterparts and preposterous claims that Ukraine is preparing a false-flag “dirty bomb” attack against Russia, likely to pressure Ukraine into concessions and intimidate NATO. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces conducted further offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine, and Russian forces continued to set conditions for a withdrawal from Kherson. Those developments are summarized briefly and will be covered in more detail tomorrow.
USA, UK och Frankrike avvisar i ett gemensamt uttalande Rysslands påstående om att Ukraina förbereder användandet av en ett vapen som sprider radioaktiv strålning. Varför skulle Ukraina göra det precis när Ryssland börjar förlora på slagfältet? :roll:
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Russia could plan 'dirty bomb' pretext, Western countries say
Reuters skrev:In a joint statement, the foreign ministers of France, Britain and the United States said they had all rejected the allegations and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine against Russia.

[...]

Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's military spy chief, said Russian forces were preparing to defend Kherson city, not retreat from it, and reported evacuations were part of a Russian disinformation campaign. While Russia is moving financial structures, equipment, vulnerable residents and wounded people from Kherson, he said, it is also reinforcing defences.

[...]

The survey, conducted between Oct. 21 and Oct. 23, showed 86% of those polled said it was necessary to continue fighting.
Västvärlden avfärdar Putins lögner om "smutsiga bomber", och den ukrainska stridsviljan sviktar inte. Ryssland ger dock kanske inte upp så lätt i Cherson. De bästa trupperna sägs lämna staden, men in kommer kanonföda.

Blowing up dam would only slow Ukrainian advance by two weeks in south - spy chief
Reuters skrev:Russia will slow Ukrainian troops' advance in the south by just two weeks if it blows up the vast Kakhovka dam, but such a move would flood territory occupied by Moscow and lose it a vital water canal for annexed Crimea, Kyiv's military spy chief said.
Ryssland kan skapa en miljökatastrof genom att spränga Kachovkadammen, men det stoppar inte Ukrainas motoffensiv i Cherson-området.

Ukraine loses up to 90% of wind, solar energy amid Russia’s invasion, says minister
The New Voice of Ukraine skrev:“We’ve already lost about 90% of wind and about 40-50% of solar energy. And this is definitely a huge loss.”

Halushchenko added Ukraine saw a rapid growth of green energy in 2019 and 2020. Accordingly, its share in Ukraine’s energy system was about 10-11%.

“We had a strategy that provided for at least a 25% share of green energy in Ukraine by 2030,” the minister said.

“I believe we may revise it and increase the percentage after our victory, taking into account the destruction caused by Russia.”
Efter segern planerar Ukraina att bli ett modernt land.

UK intelligence: Ukraine gets better at downing Iranian drones
The Kyiv Independent skrev:As Shahed-136 drones are "slow, noisy and fly at low altitudes," Ukraine manages to intercept up to 85% of the attacks, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry.
Mycket går åt rätt håll.
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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24
ISW skrev:The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Ukrainian forces captured Karmazynivka, Miasozharivka, and Nevske in Luhansk Oblast and Novosadove in Donetsk Oblast.
Ukraina avancerar långsamt mot frontlinjen mellan Svatove och Kreminna.

Mediazona: Marriage boom in Russia points to almost half a million mobilized men as of mid-October
The Kyiv Independent skrev:A statistical analysis by Russian independent media outlet Mediazona suggests that around 492,000 men have likely been conscripted into the army since Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's announcement of a "partial mobilization" of 300,000 men on Sept. 21.
Putins mobilisering är en humanitär katastrof oavsett utfall.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 7 531 enheter, varav 1 415 stridsvagnar och 41 uråldriga T-62:or. Hur länge kan Ryssland fortsätta?

Defence Intelligence: Iran will give Russia bulletproof vests and send advisers to use missiles
The Odessa Journal skrev:Iran will provide the army of the Russian Federation with bulletproof vests and helmets for the mobilized and send advisers to use drones, “Arash-2” ballistic missiles in the war against Ukraine.
Iran kommer till undsättning!

Gas storage facilities in Germany continue to fill up – 97.53 percent
Germany Detail Zero skrev:The gas storage facilities in Germany continue to fill up. As of Sunday evening, the reservoirs were 97.53 percent full, up 0.36 percent from the previous day, according to data from the Association of European Gas Infrastructure Operators on Monday evening.

The largest German gas storage facility in Rehden now has a filling level of 88.87 percent, with +0.44 percent compared to the previous day, there was a particularly clear increase here. The data of almost all other operators also showed a plus, only one of the storage facilities in the East Frisian Nüttermoor reported a minus. In Austria, the storage level was 89.21 percent nationwide (+0.58 percent), including the Haidach storage facility near Salzburg, which has so far only been connected to the German gas network and is of great importance for Bavaria with a level of 89 percent (+0.55 percent). A storage level of 93.61 (+0.24 percent) is reported across the EU, as the data from Monday shows.
Europas gaslager bara fortsätter att fyllas på, trots avsaknaden av rysk gas.
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Ukrainian forces advance against Russian fighters in Kherson and Bakhmut
The Washington Post skrev:Ukrainian forces continued their advance against the Russian military in the southern Kherson region Tuesday, pushed back Russian mercenaries from Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk, and gained new momentum in Luhansk, where they seized a key highway between the towns of Kreminna and Svatove.

[...]

“The Ukrainian army has resumed its counteroffensive in the Luhansk direction,” the pro-Russian WarGonzo project said in its daily military update, adding that Ukrainian forces took control of a key highway between the Luhansk towns of Svatove and Kreminna.
Ukraina avancerar på alla fronter, och närmar sig nu den viktiga staden Svatove. Igår uppgav den ukrainska militären att fyra byar nära Svatove har befriats:
Euromaidan Press skrev:All the mentioned settlements are located near the eastern administrative border of Kharkiv Oblast facing the area of the key city Svatove in Luhansk Oblast, where the Russian troops established their defense line after their entire sector of front collapsed in Kharkiv Oblast in September.
Enligt sociala medier fortsätter ukrainska styrkor att avancera mot Svatove.

Exclusive: U.S. considers HAWK air defense equipment for Ukraine
Reuters skrev:The HAWK interceptor missiles would be an upgrade to the Stinger missile systems - a smaller, shorter range air defense system - that the United States has already sent to blunt Russia's invasion.
Ukraina behöver alla typer av luftvärn!

IRIS-T shoots down 9 missiles out of 10: Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal talks about the effectiveness of the German SAM
Gagadget.com skrev:According to the Minister, the IRIS-T air defense missile system has shown itself in a good way. The missile complex is able to destroy 9 missiles out of 10. That is, it really saves lives of Ukrainians and can effectively protect critical facilities. By the way, according to Shmygal, in the last two weeks Russia fired 300 missiles and drones at the territory of Ukraine, which purposefully destroyed the energy, thermal and water supply infrastructure.

The IRIS-T is a medium-range surface-to-air missile system. It was developed by the German company Diehl Defense in 2014. The system is designed to destroy aircraft, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles, cruise and ballistic missiles. IRIS-T is considered one of the most advanced air defense systems. Ukraine received the first IRIS-T system a couple of weeks ago. By the end of this year we will receive another system. At the beginning of 2023, two more units will be supplied to the AFU.
Det tyska luftvärnet Iris T har visat sig fungera riktigt bra.
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European Gas Slumps to €100 on Mild Weather and Ample Supplies
Bloomberg skrev:Natural gas in Europe dropped below €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time since June as unusually warm weather and ample supplies ease fears of shortages this winter.

Benchmark futures finished 13% lower on Monday, and have slumped more than 70% from the peaks of August. High temperatures are expected to remain into next month, delaying the heating season and allowing storage sites to continue to be filled. The fuller-than-usual reserves would provide the buffer needed for when the weather inevitably turns cold.
Klimatförändringarna kanske inte gynnar Ryssland trots allt?

Italy’s New Right-Wing Government Seeks to Affirm Support for Ukraine
The New York Times skrev:Antonio Tajani, the new foreign minister and a former president of the European Parliament, wrote on Twitter on Saturday that his “first phone call” on the job was to his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba.

“I reaffirmed Italy’s full support to Ukraine in defense of freedom and against Russian invasion,” Mr. Tajani wrote. “There will be no peace without justice. And justice means Ukraine’s independence.”
Är det fortfarande någon som undrar på vilken sida Melonis regering står?

Labor pledges extra $200m in Australian aid for Ukraine and $500m for veterans in budget
The Guardian skrev:Newly budgeted defence measures include an extra $213m over five years to deliver help to Ukraine. This amount covers funding added since the Coalition’s final budget in March.

It includes $186m in military assistance, such as Bushmaster vehicles and armoured personnel carriers. It also covers extra humanitarian visas for Ukrainians, along with funding to help Ukraine’s border guard service improve its cybersecurity.
Australiska Bushmaster har tydligen använts flitigt under de ukrainska motoffensiverna.
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: torsdag 10 mars 2022 8:00 (Gustav Gressel, som berörs i ovanstående referenser, är tydligen från början från Österrike)
Gressel har en intressant tråd om luftvärn i Ukraina.

Belarusian troops spotted near Melitopol, city mayor says
Yahoo News skrev:"In Myrne near Melitopol locals have spotted soldiers from Belarus, it's a military unit with soldiers and officer personnel," he said.
Hur många belarusiska trupper kan det handla om?
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White House: Concerned Moscow may be advising Iran on best practices to manage protests
Reuters skrev:The White House is concerned Moscow may be advising Tehran on best practices to manage protests in Iran, drawing on Russia's experience in suppressing open demonstrations, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Wednesday.

[...]

"Our message to Iran is very very clear. Stop killing your people and stop sending weapons to Russia to kill Ukrainians," Jean-Pierre said.
Att ge sig på civila tycks vara det enda Ryssland är kapabelt till.

Abandoned Russian base holds secrets of retreat in Ukraine
Reuters skrev:In the weeks before that defeat, Russian forces were struggling with surveillance and electronic warfare. They were using off-the-shelf drones flown by barely trained soldiers. Their equipment for jamming Ukrainian communications was often out of action.  By the end of August, the documents show, the force was depleted, hit by death, desertions and combat stress. Two units – accounting for about a sixth of the total force – were operating at 20% of their full strength.

[...]

At the base in Balakliia, the notebook’s anonymous author wrote on July 24 – five days after the Hrakove battle – that Shtanko was a “bastard” facing disciplinary action because he “pulled back his platoon and took it into the rear.”

[...]

The notebook also recorded the desertion of Roman Elistratov, a corporal in the 9th motorised rifle regiment, which felt the full force of the Ukrainian onslaught. Elistratov didn’t respond to messages from Reuters. Later, the author wrote of a soldier who deliberately shot himself in the hand to avoid further action. Command should be notified of the incident, he added.

[...]

By the end of July, Russian officers were convinced Ukrainian forces were preparing a counter-offensive to “take control of Balakliia,” the documents in the bunker show. Intercepted communications indicated an attack was imminent.  Some of the communications were from cell phones registered to countries including Estonia, Britain, the Netherlands and the United States. Russian officers in the command bunker concluded the phones were in the possession of mercenaries or foreign instructors helping the Ukrainian military. Approached for this article, Estonia said its defence forces were not operating inside Ukraine. Britain, the United States and the Netherlands didn’t respond.
Den ryska stridsmoralen lämna en del övrigt att önska. Däremot lyckades Ryssland avlyssna främlingslegioner i Ukraina.

The Remote Control Killers Behind Russia’s Cruise Missile Strikes on Ukraine
Bellingcat skrev:Following a six-month-long investigation, Bellingcat and its investigative partners The Insider and Der Spiegel were able to discover a hitherto secretive group of dozens of military engineers with an educational and professional background in missile programming. Phone metadata shows contacts between these individuals and their superiors spiked shortly before many of the high-precision Russian cruise missile strikes that have killed hundreds and deprived millions in Ukraine of access to electricity and heating. The group, which works from two locations – one at the Ministry of Defence headquarters in Moscow and another at the Admiralty headquarters in St. Petersburg – is buried deep within the Russian Armed Forces’ vast “Main Computation Centre of the General Staff”, often abbreviated as ГВЦ (GVC).

[...]

Unlike their military peers, most of whom are exposed to at least some personal risk near the front-line, these young people work from secure command centres in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and appear to go about their lives with little interference from a war in which they play a crucial role.
Den grävande journalistgruppen Bellingcat avslöjar "fjärrkontrollsmördarna" som dödar civila från bekväma kontor i Moskva och S:t Petersburg.

Expert: Anmärkningsvärt många ryska fartyg sänkta
DN skrev:Enligt The Insider har ryska flottan inte ens klarat av grundläggande saker som att etablera herravälde till sjöss och blockera ukrainsk sjöfart, huvudsakligen på grund av att det råder brist på mångsidiga fartyg med integrerad robot- och luftförsvarsförmåga.

Peter Lidén menar att det bottnar i sänkningen av Moskva och att Turkiet inte låter det tiotal ryska fartyg som finns i östra Medelhavet att passera in i Svarta havet. Sammanfattningsvis har inte Ryssland använt sin marin optimalt under kriget, anser han.

– Landkriget är beroende av alla andra arenor. När Ryssland varken lyckades etablera herravälde till luft eller sjöss kunde de till exempel inte landstiga i Odessa.
Sänkningen av Moskva var mer än en enorm prestigeförlust, precis som explosionen på Kertjbron.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 7 595 enheter, varav 1 425 stridsvagnar och fem bränsletåg. Igår förstördes ett bränsletåg i Sjachtarsk.
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Inside the hospitals that concealed Russian casualties
CNN skrev:“The fact is that Belarus long ago ceded its sovereignty in significant ways to Russia,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a briefing on October 12, responding to a question about Belarus’ posturing, which the United States is monitoring closely. “The fact that President Putin has been able to use what should be sovereign Belarusian territory as a staging ground, the fact that brutal attacks against the people of Ukraine have emanated from a sovereign third country, Belarus in this case, it is another testament to the fact that the Lukashenko regime does not have the best interests of its people at heart.”

[...]

Still, many in Belarus are terrified that might change. A majority of Belarusians do not want their country to take part in the war, according to a recent Chatham House poll conducted online, which found that only 5% favored sending troops to support Russia. Andrej Stryzhak, a Belarusian human rights activist and founder of BySol, an initiative that supports victims of political persecution in Belarus, who himself faces politically motivated charges for “funding extremist formations,” said that the organization saw a surge in requests for help when the invasion started. The group set up a Telegram channel with advice on how to flee abroad, for people who don’t support the war or were afraid of being mobilized themselves. “We took more than 10,000 consultations … and now we have a Telegram channel with 30,000 subscribers,” Stryzhak said, adding: “It’s very intensive work for us.”

[...]

Having seen the havoc that the war has wrought first hand, Andrei said he was concerned that he might be sent into Ukraine as a combat medic. In Russia, doctors are increasingly coming under pressure. Earlier this month, Russian state-run news agency Tass reported that physicians in St. Petersburg received letters from authorities telling them not to leave the country for “security reasons,” and Russia’s parliament said around 3,000 doctors could be called up as part of Putin’s “partial mobilization” of troops.
Stackars belarusier som inte vill ha något att göra med kriget. I Ryssland finns det ändå ett visst stöd bland folket.

New U.S. sanctions target Russian efforts to manipulate the politics in Moldova, a neighbor of Ukraine
The New York Times skrev:Moldova, like its neighbor Ukraine, wants closer relations with the West but has long battled Russian political interference and intimidation. Russian-backed separatists have controlled a strip of the country since 1992, and Moldovan leaders worry that should Russia prevail in Ukraine, their country may be Moscow’s next target.

[...]

The elections wound up being a victory for pro-Western reformers, who have long resisted Russian influence within the former Soviet republic.
Skulle inte Moldavien ha en prorysk regering om utbrytarregionen Transnistrien deltog i valet? Ännu ett strategiskt misslyckande av Putin.

World Energy Outlook 2022 shows the global energy crisis can be a historic turning point towards a cleaner and more secure future
IEA skrev:Russia has been by far the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, but its invasion of Ukraine is prompting a wholesale reorientation of global energy trade, leaving it with a much-diminished position. All Russia’s trade ties with Europe based on fossil fuels had ultimately been undercut in previous WEO scenarios by Europe’s net zero ambitions, but Russia’s ability to deliver at relatively low cost meant that it lost ground only gradually. Now the rupture has come with a speed that few imagined possible. Russian fossil fuel exports never return – in any of the scenarios in this year’s WEO – to the levels seen in 2021, with Russia’s reorientation to Asian markets particularly challenging in the case of natural gas. Russia’s share of internationally traded energy, which stood at close to 20% in 2021, falls to 13% in 2030 the Stated Policies Scenario, while the shares of both the United States and the Middle East rise.
IEA:s rapport World Energy Outlook 2022 visar för första gången att konsumtionen av fossila bränslen närmar sig en vändpunkt - tack vare Putins invasion.

Israel ‘Equips’ Ukraine With UAV-Mountable Anti-Drone Smash Weapon To Fight Russia’s Suicide Drones — Reports
EurAsian Times skrev:Amid the diplomatic back and forth between the two countries, reports suggest that Israel has not only helped Ukraine’s military with crucial intelligence required to shoot down kamikaze drones but also supplied it with anti-drone systems if reports are to be believed.

[...]

Smart Shooter, or “Smash,” is a high-tech individual fire control system that employs radar to locate its target. With unmatched accuracy, it can identify, locate, and hit ground and air targets. It operates under the “one shot, one hit” tenet with the assistance of artificial intelligence.

According to some claims, an Israeli company allegedly sold these weapon systems to Poland. Even though the Defense Ministry of Israel knew that the system’s end user would be Ukraine, it decided not to interfere.
Flera rapporter hävdar att Ukraina visst får militärt stöd från Israel.

Too Much Gas. Europe’s Energy Crisis Takes a Surprise Turn
Bloomberg skrev:Starved of the Russian imports on which its long relied, Europe has rushed to import liquefied natural gas from around the world to fill up storage. Now, a combination of unusually warm weather and successful bidding for cargoes means facilities are almost full before Europeans have even turned the thermostats up. Gas prices have also fallen back sharply, and are less than a third of their summer peak.

[...]

Europe’s efforts to build up stockpiles means European storage is 93.6% full and Germany is at 97.5%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. While that’s providing some comfort to the market, in Germany it’s only enough to meet demand for two months of colder weather so Europe will need to keep attracting cargoes of LNG.

[...]

While prices are falling now, demand from Asia could pick up and Russia could still end flows of gas that transit Ukraine, either purposefully or through infrastructure damage as fighting continues. Both would add upward pressure on prices, and also make filling storage more difficult next year.
Europa tackar återigen för Xis covid-19-strategi.
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Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero
CNN skrev:Europe has more natural gas than it knows what to do with. So much, in fact, that spot prices briefly went negative earlier this week.

[...]

The price of benchmark European natural gas futures has dropped 20% since last Thursday, and by more than 70% since hitting a record high in late August. On Monday, Dutch gas spot prices for delivery within an hour — which reflect real time European market conditions — dipped below €0, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange.

[...]

The European Union has also built substantial buffers against any further supply cuts by filling gas storage facilities close to capacity. Stores are now almost 94% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. That’s well above the 80% target the bloc set countries to reach by November.

“That’s an extremely high level,” Di Odoardo said, noting that the maximum storage level averaged 87% of capacity over the past five years.
Inte ens vädret är på Putins sida.

'Like bats out of hell' Many of the draft evaders fleeing Russia for Central Asia have been government workers
Meduza skrev:Citing numerous sources from the government, Verstka reported that in some of the Moscow city administration’s departments, as many as 20–30 percent of employees have left Russia. Most of the draft evaders have been programmers, system administrators, and other IT workers. Their sudden absence has created difficulties for other departments, some of which have reportedly “sat idle for days due to the lack of IT specialists, or have been unable to use electronic document management capabilities.”

[...]

“Our leadership has imposed a total ban on transferring people to remote work right now, to keep them from fleeing. Everyone understands what’s going on; everyone knows who needs vacation time and why. I slipped out under the radar, and I’m going to be here until the bosses notice my absence,” one federal employee told Verska.
Tyvärr är det svårt att vara kanonföda på distans.

ÖB: Mer stöd till Ukraina är att vänta
Di skrev:Frågan om Ukraina får artillerisystemet Archer men även luftvärnssystemet robot 70 eller annat militärt stöd ligger nu på regeringens bord. Hos Försvarsmakten är viljan att hjälpa stor.

[...]

Ukraina för just krig för hela kollektiva västvärlden, enligt Micael Bydén.

”Viljan är inte bara politisk. Den sprider sig väldigt tungt ner i myndigheten. Vi gör allt vad vi kan för att faktiskt hitta saker och ting och vägar fram för att ge Ukraina stöd. De behöver det just nu”, säger han.
Det kommer ytterligare politiska beslut enligt ÖB Micael Bydén.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 26
ISW skrev:Putin stated that Ukraine has “lost its sovereignty” in an October 26 speech indicating that Russia likely retains its maximalist objectives in Ukraine and remains resistant to negotiations.
Samtidigt återtas Luhansk oblast steg för steg:
Defense of Ukraine skrev:Special Operations Forces of #UAarmy raise the flag of Ukraine in the liberated village of Nevske.
Step by step, we are liberating the region of Luhansk.
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Close Putin ally says 23 soldiers died in Ukrainian shelling attack
Reuters skrev:Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, on Thursday said 23 of his soldiers had been killed and another 58 wounded in a Ukrainian artillery attack this week.

Kadyrov's comments were unusual, given that pro-Moscow forces have rarely admitted to major battlefield losses since the war started. In a statement on Telegram, Kadyrov said the incident had taken place in the southern Kherson region.
Den ryska militären erkänner sällan sina förluster. Tydligen har Kadyrov och Prigozjin friare tyglar med sina privatarméer.

Russia Now Has a Second Frontline Set Up Just to Kill Its Deserters: Intel
The Daily Beast skrev:Russian’s Vladimir Putin sparked the wrath of his own people by drafting hundreds of thousands to join the war against Ukraine, and now it seems some of those men were sent not to fight the so-called “enemy” but to “snuff out” any of the Russian troops who dare to retreat.

[...]

And in occupied Donetsk, Putin’s troops appear to be hard at work battling each other. A man identified by Ukrainian intelligence as a Russian soldier was caught calling his mother to tell her how another soldier sent with “reinforcements” was tied up and held for ransom by fighters for the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic.
Samtidigt har de ryska trupperna fullt upp med interna strider.

Don’t be fooled: sanctions really are hurting Russia’s war against Ukraine
The Guardian skrev:However, better-than-anticipated forecasts mask lower living standards due to trade barriers and divestment. For example, consumer spending on apparel, footwear and accessories fell by roughly 40% in the first week of October. Car production dropped by 37%, a casualty of the chips ban. Spending on required goods such as groceries was 15% higher than in 2021, while at the same time median salaries increased by only 7% between the end of January 2022 and the end of August 2022.

[...]

But sanctions are having a demonstrable effect on Russia’s strength in Ukraine. A recently released report by the US treasury and commerce department shows that since last autumn semiconductor imports have fallen 70%, slashing Russia’s production of hypersonic ballistic missiles, surface-to-air missiles and other precision weapons. Chokepoint technologies such as bearings, vital for aircraft, tanks, automatic firearms, heavy artillery and submarines, have also been targeted and are in short supply with few substitutes.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 7 612 enheter, varav 1 428 stridsvagnar och sex bränsletåg. Igår förstördes ännu ett ryskt bränsletåg.

Gas storage facilities in Germany continue to fill up – 97.82 percent
Germany Detail Zero skrev:The largest German gas storage facility in Rehden has a filling level of 90.15 percent – and at +0.42 percent compared to the previous day, the highest rates of increase. During this week, the price for short-term delivery fell below zero at times, so you still got money for buying gas wholesale. Apparently, the technical conditions do not allow faster additional storage.

[...]

EU-wide, a storage level of 93.93 (+0.09 percent) is reported, as the data from Thursday shows.
Tyvärr finns det begränsningar för hur snabbt gaslagren kan fyllas på, men som kompensation blev det tidvis negativa gaspriser!

When we regain Crimea, the Crimean Bridge will cease to exist – Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's Intelligence Chief
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:- How long can the terror last on the scale that we have seen throughout the country in the last two weeks?

- The Shahed terror could actually go on for a long time. But the missile terror won’t, because their reserves are almost exhausted. They have about 13% of their Iskanders left [mobile short-range ballistic missile systems], about 43% of their Kalibr-PL and Kalibr-NK missiles [long-range cruise missiles, also known as SS-N-30], and about 45% of their Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles. It’s generally very dangerous to fall below 30%, because those are the emergency reserves.

Russia used up its emergency stash of Iskanders long ago, but they’re still trying to somehow stay within the limits of their norms in terms of the Kalibr, Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles.

The shortage of missiles and their low efficiency and accuracy has forced them to use Iranian-made drones: Mohajer-6s, which we have not really seen here, and Shahed-136s. They’re using a huge amount of Shaheds here.
Intressant uppskattning, om den nu stämmer.
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Ryskt fartyg uppges ha skadats i ukrainsk attack
Mattia Nelles skrev:Smoke rises over the military harbor of Sevastopol. Locals describe observing smoke rising from one Russian vessel. Unconfirmed reports say that the Admiral Makarov, the flagship (after the Moskva was sunk) of the Russian Black Sea fleet was hit.
En färsk Twitter-tråd om en ny ukrainsk attack mot staden Sevastopol.

First on CNN: Russian mercenary group constructs anti-tank fortification, satellite images show
CNN skrev:An almost two-kilometer fortification has been constructed outside the Russian-occupied town of Hirske, in eastern Ukraine, new satellite images from Maxar Technologies show.

[...]

Two Russian media outlets have reported from the fortification site, which they named the “Wagner Line” referring to the Russian mercenary Wagner Group. Zvedza TV, the media outlet for the Russian military, said it was a “second line of defense” if the Ukrainians tried to break through in the area.
CNN har en artikel om den så kallade Wagnerlinjen - en befästning uppkallad efter Wagnergruppen som har byggt den.

American fighter in Ukraine describes the "pure evil" of Russia's war
Yahoo News skrev:"It comes down extremely slow, but there's nothing you can do, and everything it touches just incinerates," Elvis said, describing one incident where he witnessed between 20 and 30 Ukrainian fighters "burning alive" before some committed suicide to end their suffering.
Putin kan glömma ett fredsavtal med ukrainska eftergifter.

Russia’s security service works to subvert Moldova’s pro-Western government
The Washington Post skrev:Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled natural gas monopoly, cut supplies to Moldova by 30 percent this month and is threatening further reductions in November. Russian airstrikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are further increasing the pressure. Ukraine had supplied 30 percent of Moldova’s electricity, but the bombing of Ukrainian power stations means Moldova has had to turn to Romania instead, and already the power lines from there are transmitting at full capacity.

In addition, Transnistria, the enclave occupied by Russian troops that controls the power station supplying the remaining 70 percent of the country’s electricity needs, this week said it was sharply reducing those volumes because of cutbacks to the Gazprom gas supply, leaving Moldovan authorities desperately scrambling to make up the deficit. “Every bomb that falls on a Ukrainian power plant is a bomb that falls on the Moldovan electricity supply as well,” said Nicu Popescu, Moldova’s foreign minister.
Om det finns något land som behöver satsa på energioberoende så är det Moldavien.

Iranian Drones in Ukraine Project Tehran’s Power Beyond Mideast, Testing U.S., Europe
WSJ skrev:While the international community focused for years on trying to constrain Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran methodically built an army of drones that reached across the Middle East. Iran and its proxies have been accused of carrying out attacks on everything from U.S. forces in Syria and commercial ships in the Arabian Sea to Israeli cities and Saudi Arabia’s oil industry.

Since 2015, Iran and its proxies have fired nearly 1,000 drones in attacks that have killed hundreds of people in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine and the Gulf of Oman, according to the Saudi military and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, which collects and analyzes information on protests and violence around the world. Besides Russia, Iran has also sold its drone technology to friendly governments, including Venezuela, Syria and Ethiopia, according to the U.S. Department of Defense.

[...]

Russia has asked Iran to supply 2,400 of the Shahed-136 suicide drones to use in Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s intelligence services and President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukrainian forces have also brought down a larger Mohajer-6 Iranian-made drone that is capable of carrying two bombs.

How quickly Iran can supply so many drones remains an open question. Bernard Hudson, a former Central Intelligence Agency operations officer who is now president of Looking Glass Global Services, a drone consulting firm, estimates that Iran can make about 100 drones a month.
Kommer Europa att göra mer för att påverka maktbalansen i Mellanöstern till Irans nackdel?
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9694
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Kraftiga reaktioner från Ryssland efter ukrainsk drönarattack
DN skrev:Ukrainska myndigheter har inte kommenterat och de brukar de inte heller göra när det gäller anfall mot Krim. Obekräftade videor från Sevastopol visar stora explosioner. Enligt ukrainska uppgifter har fregatten Admiral Makarov skadats i anfallet.

– Det är det nya flaggskeppet, som ersatte kryssaren Moskva, så om det stämmer att det har skadats så är det en stor förlust för Ryssland, säger Peter Lidén som är överstelöjtnant och Sveriges förre försvarsattaché till Ukraina.

[...]

– Det har stört ryssarna att Ukraina kommit igång med sin spannmålsexport. Strax efter att de två parallella avtalen ingicks besköt Ryssland ukrainska spannmålsanläggningar och dödade två ukrainska spannmålsmagnater, så det är fullt troligt att Ryssland nu använt attacken som en ursäkt för att vägra förnya sitt avtal, säger Peter Lidén.

[...]

– Det troligaste att Ukraina har använt självmordsdrönare, sjöburna och flygande, och att det är ukrainska specialförband från deras väpnade styrkor och från deras civila säkerhetstjänst som genomfört operationen, kanske även från Krim.

Ryssland har även markerat mot Storbritannien och kallat anfallet för ”en terroristattack utförd med hjälp av brittiska specialister”. På lördagseftermiddagen anklagade regimen också brittiska flottan för att vara inblandad i sabotaget på gasledningarna Nordstream 1 och 2.
Ryssland drar till med lögner av episka mått för att distrahera från sin katastrofala hantering av invasionen.

Russian Secret Service: “Many at the FSB think the war is lost”
Globe Echo skrev:The political scientist and Russia expert Gerhard Mangott from the University of Innsbruck considers Dmitrieva’s assessment to be fundamentally plausible: “I have learned from my sources that there are questions in the management staff of the FSB as to how much they are willing to pay for a victory in of Ukraine. And that the number of those who worry that Russia could also lose this war is increasing.”

[...]

Osechkin says growing resentment is the reason why Putin promoted Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov to colonel-general. “Putin’s bloodhound” is considered particularly loyal and brutal. The head of Wagner’s private mercenary army, the oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, is also said to have gained influence. One of Putin’s tactics, according to Osetschkin, with which he wants to protect himself against attempted coups: “Putin is terrified of it, which is why he is creating a large number of different departments and units that can turn against each other.”

[...]

Dmitrieva believes the war will continue to escalate. Two FSB sources told her about the Russian Security Council meeting on October 10. “They discussed how the situation in Ukraine could be brought under control. It didn’t matter what means were used to achieve this goal and how many civilians died in the process.” Systematic bombing of civilian targets in Ukraine began on the same day.
Börjar Rysslands säkerhetstjänster äntligen inse att kriget är förlorat?

Ukraine Situation Report: Another Week, Another Fired Russian General
The War Zone skrev:Rob Lee (@RALee85) has an excellent thread on all the leading and supporting characters in Lapin's saga. He also noted Lapin was the last of the senior commanders from Russia's four military districts and VDV airborne forces who led the February 24 invasion, with all now having been replaced after eight months of war.
Gårdagens ISW-sammanfattning kan vara relevant:
ISW skrev:Putin may be attempting to reestablish Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s authority in the Russian information space to balance the growing influence of the Russian pro-war siloviki faction.

[...]

Kadyrov’s second critique of Lapin indicates a further fragmentation within the pro-war community that may allow Priogozhin to accrue more power in the long-term. Putin will need to continue to appease the siloviki faction while attempting to support his disgraced higher military command and retain favor with the milbloggers that respect some conventional Russian military commanders such as Lapin and the Commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin.
The War Zone har även en separat artikel om Ukrainas mystiska havsdrönare.

Att röva bort tusentals ukrainska barn är del i Rysslands krigsföring
DN skrev:Syftet med den här massiva kidnappningsaktionen är att göra ukrainska barn ryska. Det är i sin tur en integrerad del i den ryska folkmordsambitionen – att utradera Ukraina som folk och som nation.

[...]

I veckan gick statsmedieredaktören Anton Krasovsky för långt till och med för rysk smak när han i tv propagerade för att man borde dränka ukrainska barn eller stänga in dem någonstans levande och tända på. Han har visserligen sagt liknande saker länge, men den här gången fick han sparken.

[...]

Oavsett hur kriget går måste barnen återlämnas, till sina föräldrar, släktingar eller andra i Ukraina som kan ta hand om dem. Innan dess kan inga sanktioner lyftas, inga avtal accepteras. Världen får inte acceptera att tusentals barn kidnappas utan att förövarna ställs inför rätta.
Putins syfte är uppenbart. Lika uppenbart är att hans planer är dömda att misslyckas. Ukraina är starkare än någonsin som folk och som nation.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9694
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

With Western Weapons, Ukraine Is Turning the Tables in an Artillery War
The New York Times skrev:“We can reach them and they cannot reach us,” said Maj. Oleksandr, the commander of an artillery battery on the Kherson front, who like others interviewed for this article gave only his first name for security reasons. “They don’t have these weapons.”

[...]

“Russia is unable to maintain logistics supplies” to the west bank of the Dnipro, said Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst and the director of Rochan Consulting, based in Gdansk, Poland. He added that the Ukrainian military’s claim to have achieved the upper hand in artillery and frontline drone strikes in the south was “highly plausible.”

[...]

“Russia’s advantage was only one thing: quantity,” Lieutenant Oleh said in an interview at his base, a house along a muddy lane in a village. The inside was crammed with screens, laptops, cables and batteries. A strip of flypaper dangled from the ceiling.
Nu gäller ombytta roller. Exemeplvis har Italiens gamla regering enligt uppgift i det fördolda skickat 20 till 30 självgående haubitsar av typen M109L till Ukraina.

Ukraine says Russian death toll up 950 over Saturday

Gårdagens ISW-sammanfattning nämner enorma ryska förluster i Donetsk-området:
ISW skrev:Russian forces likely slowed their tempo of offensive operations near Bakhmut on October 29, likely recovering from a Ukrainian strike on October 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision strike against Russian forces, who were preparing for another attack, south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk on October 28.[45] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the strike killed approximately 300 Russian personnel and that Russian forces evacuated 60 wounded personnel to a medical facility in Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff subsequently did not report any Russian ground assaults near Bakhmut in either its morning or its evening reports.[47]
GeoConfirmed har en intressant tråd med många filmer om vad som hände i Sevastopol. Vidare har ChrisO en ny Twitter-tråd om det ryska läget vid Svatove.
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