Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus
Inlägg: 9693
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russia’s ‘irrecoverable losses’ in Ukraine: more than 90,000 troops dead, disabled, or AWOL
Meduza skrev:More than 90,000 troops make up Russia’s “irrecoverable” military losses in Ukraine, as reported by the Russian media project iStories (or Vazhnye Istorii). One of the two sources of this information works in the FSB; the other is a former state security officer.

“Irrecoverable losses” is a category that includes servicemen who were killed, went missing, died from their wounds or were disabled and cannot return to military service.

This new estimate is close to the figures stated earlier by the Pentagon and the British Defense Ministry. Last August, the Pentagon estimated that 70–80 thousand Russian troops had been killed or critically wounded since the start of the war. In September, the British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace stated that the Russian army’s total losses exceeded 80,000; of those, about 25,000 were thought to have been killed.
Denna siffra inkluderar kanske inte ens legosoldater från Wagnergruppen! :shock:

Russia’s Military Mobilization Targets the Homeless, Poor – Reports
The Moscow Times skrev:In Moscow, security officers have taken men to military enlistment centers from charity centers for the homeless and needy as well as hostels where labor migrants live, Mediazona reported.

[...]

“The police come here without anyone asking. They see a queue of people waiting for food — and then they grab them by the scruff of the neck, against their will,” the head of the Salvation Hangar, an Orthodox Christian organization that helps the homeless, told Mediazona.

The men are then loaded onto buses and transported to military enlistment offices.
Ryssland mobiliserar människor från samhällets mest utsatta grupper. Dessutom tryter den moderna utrustningen. Tydligen moderniseras 800 uråldriga stridsvagnar av typen T-62. Vidare skickas urgamla haubitsar från andra världskriget till slagfältet. Går det verkligen att föra krig på detta sätt?

Samtidigt har 10 000 ukrainska soldater precis avslutat sin militära grundutbildning i UK och är nu på väg tillbaka till Ukraina för att befria sitt land.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9693
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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POLITICO unveils the ‘GREEN 28’ Class of 2023
POLITICO skrev:President of Russia Vladimir Putin tops the list as the most influential person for achieving something generations of green campaigners could not — clean energy is now a fundamental matter of European security.
Tidningen Politico utser Vladimir Putin till årets miljöhjälte. Svårt att inte hålla med, trots ironin.

German natgas storage facilities to hit November target early
Reuters skrev:Germany’s natural gas storage levels came within the 95% mark three weeks ahead of schedule, according to data from Brussels-based infrastructure group GIE, as Europe’s largest economy is bracing for its first winter without Russian gas in decades.

According to the data updated on Wednesday, German gas storage levels stood at 94.97% on Oct. 11, making it highly likely they will pass the 95% barrier the next day.
Nu har det som länge har varit uppenbart bekräftats.

United Nations condemns Russia's move to annex parts of Ukraine
Reuters skrev:The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday overwhelmingly condemned Russia's "attempted illegal annexation" of four partially occupied regions in Ukraine and called on all countries not to recognize the move, strengthening a diplomatic international isolation of Moscow since it invaded its neighbor.

Three-quarters of the 193-member General Assembly - 143 countries - voted in favor of a resolution that also reaffirmed the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders.

[...]

Only four countries joined Russia in voting against the resolution - Syria, Nicaragua, North Korea and Belarus. Thirty-five countries abstained from the vote, including Russia's strategic partner China, while the rest did not vote.
Som väntat har Ryssland få vänner och ännu färre allierade.

Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine
IISS skrev:Fears of Russian nuclear-weapon use are greatly exaggerated. We are likely no closer to a Russian first use of nuclear weapons than at the end of February despite the concerns raised by US President Joe Biden in his remarks on 6 October.

[...]

Even within Russia, nuclear use would be welcomed only on the fringes. Putin has, throughout his reign, shown that he fears a popular uprising such as a colour revolution removing him from power. The use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine might force Russians to consider that Putin is willing to commit national suicide in exchange for a small share Ukrainian territory. Some might argue that Putin’s actions throughout the war in Ukraine have been irrational, but an honest reading of Putin’s speeches and writings during his time in office demonstrate that he is intent on restoring the lost power of the Soviet Union and the legacy of the Russian Empire, at least in the country’ near abroad. But using nuclear weapons in Ukraine would increase resistance to Putin within Russia and galvanise global forces to punish him and his regime. If Putin is intent upon personal or national suicide, there are easier ways to do it than by using nuclear weapons given that there is little if anything to be gained by doing so.
Enligt experter är det fortfarande osannolikt att kärnvapen används i denna konflikt.

Russian nuclear strike likely to provoke 'physical response,' NATO official says
Reuters skrev:A Russian nuclear strike would change the course of the conflict and almost certainly provoke a "physical response" from Ukraine's allies and potentially from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a senior NATO official said on Wednesday.

Any use of nuclear weapons by Moscow would have "unprecedented consequences" for Russia, the official said on the eve of a closed-door meeting of NATO's nuclear planning group on Thursday.
All användning av kärnvapen från rysk sida skulle naturligtvis få konsekvenser som saknar motstycke.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9693
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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France has reportedly promised the delivery of 3 LRU MLRS (upgraded M270s) to Ukraine
Oryx skrev:France currently has 12 LRUs in active service and some 40 LRM MLRS (unmodified M270s) in storage.
Därmed har Ukraina fått 20 Himars-enheter från USA samt 14 M270-enheter från Europa. Därutöver har USA lovat 18 Himars-enheter på längre sikt.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 7 022 enheter, varav 1 328 stridsvagnar och 29 uråldriga T-62:or. Ännu en milstolpe har nåtts!

Ukraine’s ex-president buys Spartan armored vehicles for Ukrainian troops
Defence Blog skrev:Ukraine’s former president Petro Poroshenko has bought a batch of Spartan tracked armored personnel carriers for Ukrainian troops.

“The offensive is always accompanied by heavy losses not only for the enemy but also for the Ukrainian army. in the face of this war, the war of artillery, the number, and severity of injuries depend on the vehicles where the assault or evacuation takes place. During the raid to the east and south, the military strongly advised me to look in the direction of Spartan vehicles, several dozen of which have already delivered Ukraine from the United Kingdom,” Petro Poroshenko said.
Det hedrar Ukrainas före detta president att han stannar kvar och försvarar sitt land istället för att fly med pengarna. Ukraina behöver endräkt.

What would happen if Russia used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine?
ABC News skrev:Professor Fruehling said Mr Putin could use nuclear weapons to end the conflict in one of two ways — either to stop the momentum of the Ukrainian forces, or trigger a reaction by the US, UK and France in order to justify a withdrawal that saves face at home.

"You could imagine a situation where [Putin] uses a nuclear weapon in order to force NATO into the conflict," Professor Fruehling said.
En obehaglig tanke är att Ryssland kan använda kärnvapen för att förlora mot Nato istället för bara Ukraina.

Crimean Bridge blast: experts assess the damage
The Conversation skrev:Under normal circumstances, the blast and damage we have seen would result in an extended closure and repair works. Clearly, however, the circumstances are far from normal.
En intressant artikel om skadorna på Kertjbron. Det tycks krävas omfattande reparationer för att återställa brons fulla kapacitet. Därmed kan Ryssland få ännu större problem med logistiken.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9693
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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France to deliver anti-air systems to Ukraine in coming weeks - Macron
Reuters skrev:Paris has previously supplied Mistral shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. A source aware of the matter said Paris would provide Crotale short-range anti-air missiles, which are used to intercept low-flying missiles and aircraft.

[...]

Macron repeated that he had agreed with Denmark to divert six Caesars howitzer canons it had ordered to Ukraine. The technical details of that transaction have yet to be confirmed, diplomats have said.
Frankrike trappar upp det militära stödet till Ukraina.

Britain to donate air defence missiles to Ukraine
Reuters skrev:Britain said the Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile, or AMRAAM, which will be provided in the coming weeks, could be used with the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, or NASAMS air defence systems pledged by the United States.

Hundreds of additional air defence missiles of other types would also be donated, along with more aerial drones and a further 18 howitzer artillery guns, it said.
Även UK ökar sitt stöd.

Canada announces new military package for Ukraine after Russian missile attacks
Reuters skrev:Canada said on Wednesday it will provide over C$47 million ($34.06 million) in new military aid to assist Ukraine in dealing with Russia's invasion, with the package including artillery rounds, satellite communications, winter clothing and drone cameras, among other assistance.
Putin är inte bara årets miljöhjälte, utan också den som har gjort mest för att upprusta Ukraina.

What is Vladimir Putin thinking and planning?
BBC skrev:It's the question we've been asking for months now, even before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Artikeln försöker besvara en fråga som många säkert funderar över.

This war has gone on long enough. It’s time to negotiate with Mr. Hitler
The Globe and Mail skrev:Poland is practically in Germany’s backyard. It’s in its sphere of interest. I’m not saying it should be, I’m just stating a fact. There have been Germans living there for eons.

[...]

I have to ask: How long can this war go on? Do we keep sending Britain arms forever? I mean, what’s our exit strategy?

[...]

At what point do we say, this has gone on long enough? It’s time to give diplomacy a chance to work. We need a solution that allows both sides to walk away with something. Maybe Germany hangs onto Poland, but gives up Norway.

[...]

I’ll admit it, I didn’t think the German defences would collapse so quickly. Of course, that brings problems of its own. It used to be we worried what would happen if Hitler won. Now we have to worry about what will happen if he loses.

[...]

It was obvious from the start Germany could never win this war.
Vilken satir!
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9693
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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General Staff: Russian troops receive orders to stop offensive in some front-line areas
The Kyiv Independent skrev:Russian military units in some areas, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, have begun to receive orders from their leadership to temporarily stop offensive operations, Ukraine's General Staff reported on Oct. 13.

The main reasons behind those orders are "the extremely low morale and psychological condition of the recruits, numerous facts of desertion, and refusing to obey combat orders," reads the report.
Uppenbarligen gick det inte så bra att skicka kanonföda till fronten.

As Putin escalates war, some in Russia’s business elite despair
The Washington Post skrev:As signs of discord within Putin’s inner circle began to surface, Saturday’s humiliating attack on the Kremlin’s prized Kerch Bridge to Crimea seemed the final straw.

“No one is happy with the status quo,” the Russian state official said. “It is clear that a military or political victory will not be possible. But a loss is not possible either. This is turning into the situation in chess known as zugzwang, when each step is worse than the next and yet it is impossible not to move.”

The optimism of the summer when, according to a second state official, many in the country’s elite believed “we’ll turn everything around and find a way” has completely evaporated. “People see there is no future,” he said.

[...]

Economists and business executives say sanctions are beginning to hit the Russian economy harder, with budget cuts already being imposed — while a proposed price cap to be levied by the Group of Seven nations on Russian oil sales from December would be a further blow. The Russian president “will run low on cash … He needs cash to pay Iran and North Korea for weapons. But we will see in December a completely new reality,” said Sergei Guriev, the provost at the Sciences Po university in Paris.
Intressant artikel om stämningen i Ryssland bland företagsledare.

France says Iranian drone sales to Russia would violate U.N. Security council resolution
Reuters skrev:France's foreign ministry said on Thursday that any sale of Iranian drones to Russia would be a violation of the United Nations Security Council resolution that endorsed the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers.
Tydligen anser Europa att det är dags att ta i med hårdhandskarna mot den iranska regimen.

Israel said providing Kyiv with intel on Iranian suicide drones
The Times of Israel skrev:A senior Ukrainian official has said Israel is providing Ukraine with “basic intelligence” on Iranian suicide drones being deployed by the Russian army, according to a report in The New York Times.

Wednesday’s report, which cited an anonymous Ukrainian source, also said that a private Israeli security firm was giving the Ukrainians satellite imagery of Russian military positions.
I takt med att Ryssland intensifierar sitt samarbete med Iran gör Ukraina detsamma med Israel.

Maxar shows new photos of damaged Crimean Bridge
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:In Crimea, today’s imagery shows repairs in progress on both the rail line of the Crimea Bridge as well as on damaged sections of the road/vehicle bridge span. Vehicles can be seen travelling along the bridge & nearby a ferry transporting trucks across the Kerch Strait.
Trafiken på Kertjbron verkar fortfarande inte vara igång efter explosionen. Enligt uppgift tar det flera dagar att åka med färja på grund av köer. Vidare sägs bron ha byggts av nederländska företag, vilket kan försvåra reparationerna.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9693
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

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Kremlin-appointed Kherson leader seeks Russia’s help to evacuate civilians
Financial Times skrev:The Russian-installed head of the occupied Ukrainian region of Kherson has appealed to Moscow for help in evacuating residents, signalling that Kyiv’s counteroffensive in the area may be picking up steam.

[...]

Western military officials estimate Ukraine could take Kherson up to the Dnipro as soon as next week.

[...]

Last week, Saldo said Crimea had agreed to take 5,000 Kherson children “for rest” this autumn. Krasnodar and Stavropol had offered to take 10,000 parents and children each, he said.
Den ryska ockupationsmakten sägs planera en evakuering av civila från det belägrade Cherson-området till Ryssland - liksom Ukrainas ockuperade halvö.

How Moscow grabs Ukrainian kids and makes them Russians
AP News skrev:Whether or not they have parents, raising the children of war in another country or culture can be a marker of genocide, an attempt to erase the very identity of an enemy nation. Prosecutors say it also can be tied directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has explicitly supported the adoptions.
Tvångsförflyttning och etnisk rensning verkar i alla fall vara en del av Putins plan.

Exclusive: Musk’s SpaceX says it can no longer pay for critical satellite services in Ukraine, asks Pentagon to pick up the tab
CNN skrev: It echoed comments he’d made last month at an exclusive closed-door conference in Aspen, Colorado called “The Weekend,” at which Musk told a room full of attendees that Ukraine should seek peace now because they’ve had recent victories.

“This is the time to do it. They don’t want to do it, that’s for sure. But this is the time to do it,” he said, according to a person in the room. “Everyone wants to seek peace when they’re losing but they don’t want to seek peace when they’re winning. For now.”
Musk framstår allt mer som en femtekolonnare efter att ha offentliggjort sina "fredsplaner" för Ukraina och Taiwan. Samtidigt lever han på statliga kontrakt.

The Russian army will be 'annihilated' if it launches a nuclear attack, warns Josep Borrell
Euronews skrev:"There is the nuclear threat, and Putin is saying he is not bluffing. Well, he cannot afford bluffing," Borrell said during a European Diplomatic Academy event in Bruges.

"It has to be clear that the people supporting Ukraine and the European Union and the member states, and the United States and NATO are not bluffing neither."

"And any nuclear attack against Ukraine will create an answer -- not a nuclear answer but such a powerful answer from the military side -- that the Russian army will be annihilated, and Putin should not be bluffing," he said.
EU:s utrikesrepresentant Josep Borrells uttalande om hur det ryska kärnvapenhotet kan bemötas liknar det av den före detta CIA-chefen David Petraeus.

Abnormally high temperatures this winter could help Europe dodge Putin’s gas crunch
Fortune skrev:Scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which updated its seasonal outlook Thursday, said temperatures probably will be significantly above normal during the peak heating season between December and February.
Samtidigt har Tyskland klarat målet att fylla sina gaslager till 95 procent.

Från dagens ISW-sammanfattning:
ISW skrev:Ukrainian forces made gains northwest of Svatove.

Russian forces are continuing defensive operations in anticipation of potential Ukrainian attacks towards Kreminna.
Ukraina fortsätter att avancera öster om floden Oskil. I skrivande stund har i princip hela Charkiv oblast befriats.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9693
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

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Crimea bridge repairs to be finished by July 2023 - Russian government document
Reuters skrev:Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government's website said.
Allt går enligt plan...

Kazakhstan ‘chips away’ at its reliance on Russia
Financial Times skrev:Kazakhstan, traditionally one of Russia’s closest partners — Tokayev attended Putin’s 70th birthday party last week, and welcomed Putin to a regional conference in Astana on Thursday — has refused to support the invasion or recognise annexations of Ukrainian territory.

[...]

Kazakhstan signalled its new assertiveness this month when it snubbed a demand from Moscow to expel the Ukrainian ambassador to the country over comments he made about killing Russians.

[...]

Now with Russia absorbed by its assault on Ukraine, Kazakhstan and other countries across the region are adopting a more independent line, though remaining careful not to anger their belligerent neighbour.
Putin cementerar Sovjetunionens upplösning. Vidare förödmjukas Putin även av Qatars och Palestinas ledare - enligt ny tradition.

Putin 'ready to talk' and may withdraw forces from key area - but has several conditions, report says
Sky News skrev:According to independent news site Meduza, the Russian president is willing to take part in discussions and could even withdraw his troops from the Kherson area.

However, the outlet details a number of conditions - that Crimea is not part of the talks and that annexed Donbas territory remains under Russian control.

These are conditions unlikely to be agreed to by Ukraine, with critics of the Kremlin suggesting that any ceasefire would be used by Russia to regroup and renew its attacks.
Putin verkar fortfarande inte ha förstått att territoriella eftergifter inte är aktuella. Men detta bekräftar det prekära läget i Cherson-området. Här är Meduzas artikel som Sky News hänvisar till.
Lennart Petersen
Inlägg: 3087
Blev medlem: söndag 21 augusti 2011 22:53

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Det slår mig att Putin ser ovanligt frisk ut jämfört med för några månader sedan.
Han rör sig alert och gör långa resor.
Om det nu har någon betydelse, det finns en maktsfär bakom honom och en ersättare kan bli än värre.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9693
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Saudi Arabia announces $400 mln humanitarian aid to Ukraine
Reuters skrev:Saudi Arabia will provide $400 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Saudi state news agency SPA said, adding that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made a phone call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday.
Det är inte lite pengar det handlar om! MBS är tydligen på charmoffensiv efter hans oljekartells överenskommelse om minskad oljeproduktion.

$725 Million in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
Department of Defense skrev:Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $725 million to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration's 23rd drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.
USA skickar ännu ett militärt stödpaket till Ukraina. Bland annat får Ukraina hundratals Humvee och olika sorters pansarvärn. Vidare uppges Ukraina ha haft framgång med att genskjuta ryska kryssningsmissiler under gårdagen, möjligen tack vare det tyska luftvärnet Iris T.

Från dagens ISW-sammanfattning:
ISW skrev:A prominent Russian milblogger accused unspecified senior officials within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of preparing to censor Russian milbloggers on October 14.

[...]

A key indicator for the status of a crackdown on Russian milbloggers will be any status update from former Russian militant commander and nationalist milblogger Igor Girkin. Girkin has not posted since October 10—a significant change in his behavior given that he usually posts multiple times daily.[29]
Rysslands patriotiska militärbloggare är kända för att inte dölja ryska förluster, utan istället kräva förbättring och vedergällning. Dessa gestalter har på senare tid blivit populära i Ryssland - kanske för populära. Putin anser uppenbarligen att de utgör ett hot, speciellt när kriget går dåligt. Nu är det kanske inte lika kul med en totalitär stat. Några källor säger till och med att vissa militärbloggare ska skickas till fronten - vilket i bästa fall kan jämföras med rysk roulette.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 7 085 enheter, varav 1 337 stridsvagnar. Här är alla tresiffriga förluster:

1. BMP-2(K) (542 förluster)
2. KamAZ 6x6 (484 förluster)
3. Ural-4320 (461 förluster)
4. MT-LB (288 förluster)
5. BTR-82A(M) (282 förluster)
6. T-72B3 (208 förluster)
7. T-72B (188 förluster)
8. BMP-1(P) (178 förluster)
9. T-72B3 Obr. 2016 (177 förluster)
10. BMP-3 (160 förluster)
11. BMD-2 (148 förluster)
12. T-80BV (139 förluster)
13. MT-LBVM(K) (122 förluster)
14. Ural-4320 tanker (117 förluster)
15. GAZ Tigr-M (109 förluster)
16. BTR-80 (105 förluster)

Kremlin crack-up: who’s out to get Putin?
The Spectator skrev:For these people, the question of who is eventually chosen to succeed Putin is much less important than who does the choosing. In 2000 Patrushev – newly appointed as head of the FSB by his former subordinate Putin who had just become President – wrote an essay comparing the FSB to Russia’s ‘new nobility’. And over the subsequent 20 years the FSB did indeed proceed not only to take over swaths of Russia’s state and private business but also to appoint their children as ministers and even – just like the aristocracy of tsarist Russia – make dynastic marriages among themselves.

Modern Russia is not just a security state but literally a state that has been taken over by its own security services. Putin is the ultimate decision-maker and arbiter in various disputes between rival factions inside that extended FSB-connected ruling class. And insofar as a ‘collective Putin’ exists, it’s composed of a tiny group of very closely connected, very paranoid old men whose chief goal is to preserve their wealth and power and pass it on to their children and protégés.
Putins inre cirkel behöver föryngras, liksom presidenten själv!
Senast redigerad av Enceladus den lördag 15 oktober 2022 5:56, redigerad totalt 2 gång.
Lennart Petersen
Inlägg: 3087
Blev medlem: söndag 21 augusti 2011 22:53

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Ukraina tycks ha gjort en remarkabel erövring i en T90 stridsvagn :
https://www.economist.com/the-economist ... IHmnooy9XI
Enceladus
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Rape used in Ukraine as a Russian 'military strategy:' UN
France 24 skrev:"When women are held for days and raped, when you start to rape little boys and men, when you see a series of genital mutilations, when you hear women testify about Russian soldiers equipped with Viagra, it's clearly a military strategy," she said.

[...]

The report "confirmed crimes against humanity committed by the Russian forces, and according to gathered testimonies, the age of the victims of sexual violence ranges from four to 82 years old," Patten said.
FN uppger att Ryssland använder sig av våldtäkter och sexuella övergrepp som en militär strategi. Ingen är väl förvånad.

Iranian troops are secretly sent to Ukraine front line to help Putin's men operate kamikaze drones
Daily Mail skrev:Despite denials from the Iranian regime that their forces are getting involved in the conflict, IRGC troops have reportedly been based in Dzankoi in Crimea and Kherson in the south, where one team has already been destroyed.

A Ukrainian source told the newspaper: 'At least one of the Iranian training teams has been hit recently and they are actively being hunted down.
Iranska trupper är tydligen på plats och strider för Ryssland. Den 11 oktober rapporterade ISW om explosioner i Dzjankoj.

Iran Crisis Update, October 14
ISW skrev:Demonstrators have killed more Iranian security personnel in the current protest wave than in any previous wave in the regime’s history according to regime statistics.
Men Iran har också interna problem att handskas med.

Så gick Elon Musk från hjälte till hatobjekt i Ukraina
DN skrev:– Jag funderar på en kinesisk elbil i stället. Men det innebär kanske andra problem.
Högmod går före fall. Tänk om det funnes fler alternativ än en kinesisktillverkad Tesla och en kinesisk elbil...

Ex-militären om Surovikin: ”De hatade honom”
DN skrev:General Sergej Surovikin är den tredje befälhavaren på posten, efter Gennadij Zhidko och Alexander Dvornikov. Enligt analytiker kommer Surovikins tillträde troligtvis inte att förändra den ryska krigföringen samtidigt som det talar för Putins missnöje med tidigare befälhavare, skriver CNN.

[...]

Han berättar för CNN att Surovikin stod ”väldigt nära Putins regim” och ”aldrig hade några politiska ambitioner och därför alltid utförde en plan likt regimen ville”.

[...]

Generalen, som fått smeknamnen ”Armageddon” och ”den grymme”, är känd för sin hänsynslöshet.
Äpplet faller inte långt från trädet...
Enceladus
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Elon Musk says SpaceX will keep funding Starlink in Ukraine despite losing money
Reuters skrev:Elon Musk said on Saturday his rocket company SpaceX would continue to fund its Starlink internet service in Ukraine, citing the need for "good deeds," a day after he said it could no longer afford to do so.
Elon Musk ångrar sig - igen?

At least 11 killed, 15 wounded in attack at Russia military training ground
Reuters skrev:At least 11 people were killed and 15 more wounded at a Russian military training ground on Saturday when two attackers opened fire on a group of volunteers who wished to fight in Ukraine, RIA news agency said.
Det var väl bara en tidsfråga innan något liknande skulle inträffa.

Fire, gunshots at Tehran jail holding political prisoners, dual nationals
Reuters skrev:A fire broke out on Saturday in Tehran's Evin prison, where many of Iran's political and dual-national detainees are held, and witnesses reported hearing gunfire.
Även i Iran ökar turbulensen.

A tale of three generals — how the Ukrainian military turned the tide
Engelsberg Ideas skrev:This has been the result of well-considered Ukrainian military strategy. I have previously described this approach as a strategy of corrosion. The Ukrainians, through a variety of indirect attacks, information operations, destruction of Russian logistics and commanders, and tough close combat, have embraced the corrosion of the Russian physical, moral, and intellectual capacity to fight.
En intressant artikel om de ukrainska framgångarna på slagfältet.

U.S. grows frustrated over Europe’s delayed economic aid to Ukraine
The Washington Post skrev:Tensions are rising between the United States and its Western allies over Ukraine’s deteriorating economy, as American officials increasingly prod the European Union to ramp up financial assistance to the war-torn country.
USA behöver sätta hårdare press på EU, och europeiska ledare borde skämmas.

Från dagens ISW-sammanfattning:
ISW skrev:Russia may have signed a new contract with Iran for the supply of Arash-2 drones.
Samarbetet mellan Ryssland och Iran verkar fördjupas ytterligare samtidigt som båda länderna blir allt mindre stabila.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9693
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Iran plans to send missiles, drones to Russia for Ukraine war, officials say
The Washington Post skrev:An intelligence assessment shared in recent days with Ukrainian and U.S. officials contends that Iran’s armaments industry is preparing a first shipment of Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles, two well-known Iranian short-range ballistic missiles capable of striking targets at distances of 300 and 700 kilometers, respectively, two officials briefed on the matter said. If carried out, it would be the first delivery of such missiles to Russia since the start of the war.

[...]

The officials briefed on the planned missiles shipment said Iran also is preparing new deliveries of unmanned aerial vehicles for Russia, including “dozens” of additional Mohajer-6s and a larger number of Shahed-136s. The latter, sometimes called “kamikaze” drones because they are designed to crash into their targets, are capable of delivering explosive payloads at distances of up to 1,500 miles. Iranian technical advisers have visited Russian-controlled areas in recent weeks to provide instructions on operating the drones, the officials said.
Samarbetet mellan Ryssland och Iran trappas upp ännu mer. Detta kan få stora konsekvenser för maktbalansen i Mellanöstern.

Vidare har ChrisO ett antal intressanta trådar om militära motgångar för Wagnergruppens fångar, en förändrad marknad för striptease i Ryssland samt hur mobiliseringen av gästarbetare slår tillbaka.

Russian troops kill Ukrainian musician for refusing role in Kherson concert
The Guardian skrev:Russian soldiers have shot dead a Ukrainian musician in his home after he refused to take part in a concert in occupied Kherson, according to the culture ministry in Kyiv.

Conductor Yuriy Kerpatenko declined to take part in a concert “intended by the occupiers to demonstrate the so-called ‘improvement of peaceful life’ in Kherson”, the ministry said in a statement on its Facebook page.
Kommer Ukraina någonsin att förlåta Ryssland för sin brutalitet?
Anders Hanquist
Inlägg: 1721
Blev medlem: söndag 28 september 2003 21:19
Ort: LS Lugnet

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: söndag 16 oktober 2022 13:02 Kommer Ukraina någonsin att förlåta Ryssland för sin brutalitet?
Det kommer att ta lång tid. Det krävs nog att en framtida rysk "Willy Brandt" åker till Kiev.
https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knäfallet_i_Warszawa
Enceladus
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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EU slaps human rights sanctions on Iran, warns of more over Ukraine
Reuters skrev:Additional EU sanctions on Iran will not be limited to blacklisting some individuals should Tehran's involvement in Russia's war on Ukraine be proven, Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn said.
Försöker EU blunda för verkligheten, eller lever EU verkligen under en sten?

Alexander Kovalenko: UAV kamikaze Shahed-136 underwent modernization in Russia
The Odessa Journal skrev:“As you know, these drones have an inertial guidance system. But, in the latest devices, GLONASS control units were recorded. Thanks to this block, the accuracy of the” Shahed-136 “is significantly increased. Previously, the effective range of their use was approximately 170-200 km, now it is increased, due to additional adjustments,” Kovalenko explained.
Ryssland har tydligen hjälpt Iran att utveckla sina drönare.

Russian ex-president: If Israel sends weapons to Ukraine it will destroy Moscow ties
Times of Israel skrev:“It seems Israel will supply weapons to the Kyiv regime. A very reckless move. It will destroy all diplomatic relations between our countries,” Medvedev wrote on Telegram.
Har Israel äntligen fått nog av samarbetet mellan Ryssland och Iran?

How Russian Ships Are Laundering Grain Stolen From Occupied Ukraine
Bloomberg skrev:For several months now, Amur 2501, a small Russian cargo ship with a prominent white bridge section and a long barge-like body, has been making curious runs in the Black Sea.

It collects grains not just from the Russian port of Azov but also from Sevastopol in sanctions-hit Crimea — a harbor from where Ukraine says almost all departing commodities are stolen from its occupied territories by Kremlin troops. At several points during its trips, Amur 2501 goes dark, with its tracking system not transmitting its location. It then appears to participate in multi-ship transfers of cargo in the open seas off the Russian port of Kavkaz with large vessels that then proceed to countries including Libya and Iran.

Satellite images, loading and unloading data compiled from ports and vessel-location transmissions obtained by Bloomberg place ships like Amur 2501 at the heart of what industry experts say is Russian shippers’ illicit commodities trade. The exporters are mixing grain from multiple ports and vessels, obscuring the origin of commodities like wheat and barley, and allowing large volumes to be sold abroad without detection.

[...]

“It’s quite an elaborate scheme to hide the illicit origin of the grains, and it’s really a new low to use sanctions-evasion techniques perfected in the Iran and North Korea context on a food item,” said Justyna Gudzowska, Director of Illicit Finance Policy at The Sentry, a non-profit organization that investigates global corruption networks. “Food shouldn’t be weaponized the way it is here.”
Bloomberg har ett intressant reportage om Rysslands olagliga handel med stulet spannmål.

Ukraine returns 108 women POWs in major prisoner exchange with Russia
The Kyiv Independent skrev:Yermak said the released Ukrainian prisoners include 37 soldiers from Azovstal, 11 officers, and 85 privates and sergeants. He added that 12 of them are civilians.

"Among those released were (also) women illegally imprisoned before the large-scale invasion," Yermak said. "Now, all the women will undergo medical checks and rehabilitation. They will hug their relatives and their children and recover."
Äntligen några goda nyheter! Vissa av fångarna fängslades i ockuperade områden innan årets fullskaliga invasion. Krym och delar av Donbas har nu varit ockuperade i över åtta år.
Enceladus
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russia is grabbing men off the street to fight in Ukraine
The Washington Post skrev:Police and military officers swooped down on a Moscow business center this past week unannounced. They were looking for men to fight in Ukraine — and they seized nearly every one they saw. Some musicians, rehearsing. A courier there to deliver a parcel. A man from a Moscow service agency, very drunk, in his mid-50s, with a walking disability.
Dystopin håller på att bli verklighet i Ryssland. Samtidigt är det osannolikt att Belarus gör sällskap.

Russian fighter crashes into apartments in city near Ukraine, 3 dead
Reuters skrev:A Russian fighter plane crashed into a residential building in the southern Russian city of Yeysk on Monday, engulfing apartments in a huge fireball, and officials said at least three people were killed.

[...]

Video published by the military news channel Zvezda appeared to show explosions aboard the Sukhoi Su-34 supersonic medium-range fighter-bomber plane as it plunged towards the apartments. Russian agencies said the pilots had ejected.
Ännu en rysk flygplansförlust på hemmaplan. Följande artikel kan vara relevant:

Putin Tried for Years to Stop His Military From Using Western Parts — And Mostly Failed
Bloomberg skrev:The import substitution program was set up in 2014 in the aftermath of Russia’s previous invasion of Ukraine, and accelerated with detailed targets set from 2019. But what has been described to Bloomberg as a 20-page audit by the office of Russia’s prosecutor general in April 2021 — covering a mammoth 177,058 components used in 278 types of military equipment — found widespread shortcomings. In 2020 alone, Russia had hoped for 18,047 substitutions covering 43 types of equipment but only managed 3,148 replacements across five items, the people said.

[...]

The 2021 inspection includes issues with the following, the people said:
  • Failure to meet targets for:
    • TU-22M3 bombers and Su-34 fighter bombers, alongside multiple types of missiles including guided air defense missile 9M96.
Vidare förefaller Ryssland ha problem med färjorna över Kertjsundet.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9693
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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EU warns Iran of more sanctions over alleged weapon supplies to Russia
Financial Times skrev:In talks on Monday, the bloc’s foreign ministers reached an in-principle consensus on sanctioning Tehran for supplying Shahed 136 “kamikaze” drones to Moscow if it obtains incontrovertible evidence they are being used against Ukraine, as Kyiv has insisted.

Witnesses said the explosions that struck Ukraine’s capital on Monday morning were preceded by a humming noise similar to a loud lawnmower engine, a description that suggests the Shahed 136 drones may have been used.


[...]

Numerous ministers at the meeting called for action against Iran, citing its “obvious” involvement in the war, according to two people briefed on the talks, who added that EU leaders could agree to take more steps at a summit at the end of the week.

Tehran has denied that its drones are being used by Russia in the war.
Flera europeiska länder börjar tröttna på den iranska regimens lögner. Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 7 396 enheter, varav 138 drönare och 1 393 stridsvagnar. Oryx räknar inte självmordsdrönare som Shahed-136. Däremot inkluderas stridsdrönare som Mohajer-6. Fler iranska vapen väntas.

Germany pushes to extend lifespan of three nuclear plants -letter
Reuters skrev:German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has asked the economy, environment and finance ministries to lay the legal framework to keep the country's three nuclear power plants operational until as late as April 15, 2023, a letter seen by Reuters showed on Monday.

Germany had planned to complete a phase-out of nuclear power by the end of this year, but a collapse in energy supplies from Russia because of the war in Ukraine has prompted the government to keep two plants on standby.
Tyskland skjuter upp stängningen av samtliga tre återstående kärnkraftverk.

European Gas Extends Losing Run as EU Plans More Crisis Measures
Bloomberg skrev:Europe’s gas storage facilities are about 92% full, above the five-year average for the time of the year, helped by favorable weather and high levels of LNG imports. But failure to cut consumption and a colder-than-normal winter could deplete the reservoirs quickly and make it much harder to replenish them next year, particularly without the usual volumes of Russia gas.
Det ovanligt varma vädret är ytterligare ett bakslag för Putin.

Why Vladimir Putin Is Likely to Be Disappointed
The New York Times skrev:But if Mr. Putin hoped to shift the war’s battlefield dynamics, he is likely to be disappointed. Four factors have combined to steadily diminish Russia’s battlefield prospects: the demands of a high-intensity war on an army unprepared to wage it; early and severe losses to its ground, airborne and special forces; the Ukrainians’ resilience and will to fight; and Western support for Ukraine. The fact is that none of the Kremlin’s recent gambits — annexation, mobilization or personnel shuffles — can overcome the larger problems facing Russia’s military. And in the months ahead, its difficulties will only worsen.

[...]

That’s not to say mobilized forces will be of no use. If used in support roles, like drivers or refuelers, they might ease the burden on the remaining parts of Russia’s exhausted professional army. They could also fill out depleted units along the line of contact, cordon some areas and man checkpoints in the rear. They are, however, unlikely to become a capable fighting force. Already there are signs of discipline problems among mobilized soldiers in Russian garrisons.

They join an army already degraded in quality and capability. The composition of Russia’s military force in Ukraine — as much of its prewar active duty personnel has been wounded or killed and its best equipment destroyed or captured — has radically altered over the course of the war. The Russian military leadership is unlikely to know with confidence how this undisciplined composite force will react when confronted with cold, exhausting combat conditions or rumors of Ukrainian assaults. Recent experience suggests these troops might abandon their positions and equipment in panic, as demoralized forces did in the Kharkiv region in September.
Det ser mörkt ut för Putin...
Enceladus
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Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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The Sources of Russian Misconduct: A Diplomat Defects From the Kremlin
Foreign Affairs skrev:The war is a stark demonstration of how decisions made in echo chambers can backfire. Putin has failed in his bid to conquer Ukraine, an initiative that he might have understood would be impossible if his government had been designed to give honest assessments. For those of us who worked on military issues, it was plain that the Russian armed forces were not as mighty as the West feared—in part thanks to economic restrictions the West implemented after Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea that were more effective than policymakers seemed to realize.

[...]

Even after the January summit, I didn’t believe that Putin would launch a full-fledged war. Ukraine in 2022 was plainly more united and pro-Western than it had been in 2014. Nobody would greet Russians with flowers. The West’s highly combative statements about a potential Russian invasion made clear that the United States and Europe would react strongly. My time working in arms and exports had taught me that the Russian military did not have the capability to overrun its biggest European neighbor and that, aside from Belarus, no outside state would offer us meaningful support. Putin, I figured, must have known this, too—despite all the yes men who shielded him from the truth.
Ingen kan ha missat avsaknaden av moderna plattformar som T-14 Armata eller Su-57 på slagfältet. Dessutom tycks Putin omges av jasägare.

Share of defective microchips from China to Russia up from 2% to 40% since start of war, Kommersant reports
The Insider skrev:The share of defective microchips in shipments from China to Russia has gone up from 2% to 40%, the business newspaper Kommersant reported citing a source in the Russian electronics market.

According to the source, Russian buyers have started importing electronics and other parts on their own due to sanctions. Goods are being bought from intermediaries as opposed to directly from factories, which negatively impacts the level of quality control.

Russia started experiencing problems with its microchip supply after Vladimir Putin ordered troops into Ukraine. Foreign manufacturers are refusing to work with Russian customers due to sanctions, so the latter have to come up with unusual methods to obtain them. For example, Sberbank – Russia’s largest financial institution – began “reimplanting” chips from non-activated cards into new ones due to the shortage.
Den bristande kvalitetskontrollen kan innebära slutet för rysk industri.

Inside the U.S. Effort to Arm Ukraine
The New Yorker skrev:The Ukrainian soldiers in Grafenwöhr struck their American counterparts as highly motivated. During one lunch break, a Ukrainian soldier reported that his village had just come under Russian shelling; the rest of the Ukrainian troops stood up without finishing their meal and returned to their training. “They’re not here for R. and R.,” Brigadier General Joseph Hilbert, who oversees the facility, said. “They want to get back and put these things to use.”

[...]

The Biden Administration has also refused to provide specific intelligence on the location of high-value Russian individuals, such as generals or other senior figures. “There are lines we drew in order not to be perceived as being in a direct conflict with Russia,” the senior U.S. official said. The United States will pass on coördinates of a command post, for example, but not the presence of a particular commander. “We are not trying to kill generals,” the senior Biden Administration official said. “We are trying to help the Ukrainians undermine Russian command and control.”
Den ukrainska stridsmoralen är definitivt avgörande för att nå framgång på slagfältet. Däremot verkar amerikansk underrättelse inte ha hjälpt att hitta generaler.

U.S. to penalize Iran, third parties for missile sales to Russia
POLITICO skrev:“Are we going to do more about Iranian military sales to Russia? Absolutely, yes,” the U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. “For anybody in the world who is either selling material to Iran that could be used for [unmanned aerial vehicles] or ballistic missiles, or who is involved in flights between Iran and Russia: Do your due diligence, because we are absolutely going to sanction anybody who’s helping Iranians help Russians kill Ukrainians.”

[...]

That call, however, would not be an easy option for the EU, which struggles to strike a balance between punishing Iran for aiding and abetting Russia and an attempt to preserve talks on the EU-led JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran, which remains at a standstill. The U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018.
Har kärnteknikavtalet med Iran någon framtid efter 2018? USA och EU förefaller leva i olika verkligheter.

Den 16 oktober ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,31 procentenheter till 92,37 procent och Tysklands gaslager med 0,4 procentenheter till 96,03 procent. Otroligt!
Enceladus
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Putin’s War Escalation Is Hastening Demographic Crash for Russia
Bloomberg skrev:President Vladimir Putin spent years racing against Russia’s demographic clock, only to order an invasion of Ukraine that’s consigning his country’s population to a historic decline.

Besides casualties in the thousands on the battlefield, the enlistment of 300,000 reservists to join the fight -- and an even bigger flight of men abroad -- is derailing Putin’s goals of starting to stabilize the population already this year.
En demografisk katastrof lurar vid den ryska horisonten.

Ukraine war: Blackouts in 1,162 towns and villages after Russia strikes
BBC skrev:President Volodymyr Zelensky said that 30% of Ukraine's power stations had been destroyed in the past eight days.

Parts of the capital Kyiv have no power and water after new strikes on Tuesday.

[...]

At Tuesday's briefing in Kyiv, Mr Khorunzhyi said: "In the period from October 7 to 18, as a result of shelling of energy facilities, about 4,000 settlements in 11 regions [of Ukraine] were cut off.

"Currently, according to the energy ministry, 1,162 settlements remain without power," the emergencies services spokesman said.
Rysslands nya mål verkar vara att skapa en humanitär kris i Ukraina. Kriget kan ju inte vinnas på slagfältet.

Lawmakers seek emergency powers for Pentagon’s Ukraine war contracting
Defense News skrev:Bipartisan legislation introduced in the Senate would grant the Pentagon wartime procurement powers, allowing it to buy massive amounts high-priority munitions using multi-year contracts to help Ukraine fight Russia and to refill U.S. stockpiles.

[...]

The sheer volumes of weapons that the legislation authorizes contracts for equipment sent to Ukraine includes 750,000 XM1128 and XM1123 rounds for 155mm artillery; 1,000 M777 Howitzers; 700 M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and 100,000 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.

But it extends far beyond what the U.S. needs to replenish stocks sent to Ukraine. For instance, it authorizes contracts to procure up to 20,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and 25,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles. That far exceeds the approximately 1,400 Stingers and 5,500 Javelins that the U.S. has sent to Ukraine from its stocks.

“These numbers are much larger than just replenishing stocks,” said Cancian. “These are huge numbers. They are not driven by what we’ve given to Ukraine, but sort of related to what we’ve given to Ukraine.”
Den amerikanska senaten vill satsa stort på vapenproduktion relaterad till kriget i Ukraina. Putin leker alltså med elden.

Exclusive: Iran agrees to ship missiles, more drones to Russia, defying the West
Reuters skrev:A deal was agreed on Oct. 6 when Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, two senior officials from Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards and an official from the Supreme National Security Council visited Moscow for talks with Russia about the delivery of the weapons.

"The Russians had asked for more drones and those Iranian ballistic missiles with improved accuracy, particularly the Fateh and Zolfaghar missiles family," said one of the Iranian diplomats, who was briefed about the trip.

[...]

"They (Russians) wanted to buy hundreds of our missiles, even mid-range ones, but we told them that we can ship soon a few hundred of their demanded Zolfaghar and Fateh 110 short-range, surface to surface missiles," said one of the security officials.
Vad får Iran i utbyte mot robotarna, och vad blir västvärldens respons? Kriget i Ukraina är uppenbarligen inte längre bara en europeisk angeläget.

Putin’s gas hub offer to Turkey sparks debate
Arab News skrev:According to Sezer, to become an energy hub, Ankara should be provided with the means to set a reference price for gas and be able to receive gas from different sources, including Russia, Azerbaijan, Iraq and Turkmenistan, among other countries.

“If the gas flows only from one source, such as Russia, the price will be again set by the provider country, rather than Turkey. Being a hub means being able to set prices and gather alternative sources of energy in a pool,” he said.
Turkiet och Ryssland inleder undersökningar för att göra Turkiet till ett internationellt nav för rysk gas, men detta kräver dyr infrastruktur och framförallt köpare.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9693
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Iran has sent military trainers to Crimea to train Russian forces to use drones
CNN skrev:Iran has sent military personnel to Russian-occupied territory inside Crimea to train and advise the Russian military on the use of Iranian-built drones that Moscow has used to devastating effect in its war in Ukraine, according to two sources familiar with US intelligence.

[...]

Tehran has provided two types: Shaheds, which explode on impact and have a range of upwards of 1,000 miles, and the Mohajer-6, which can both carry missiles and be used for surveillance.
Ovanstående artikel har ett videoklipp som visar en stridsdrönare av typen Mohajer-6 som Ukraina har lyckats fånga. Det framgår att den verkligen är från Iran.

Iran Sends Drone Trainers to Crimea to Aid Russian Military
The New York Times skrev:“Even if they’re just trainers and tactical advisers in Ukraine, I think that’s substantial,” Mr. Mulroy said. The United Nations’ human rights body has said that deliberate strikes on such civilian targets could constitute war crimes.

When Iran deployed the first batch of drones to Russia, errors by Russian operators rendered them ineffective. Mechanical issues also grounded the planes and limited their utility, according to American officials.

Originally, Russia had sent its personnel to Iran for training on the drones. But as the problems continued, Iran opted to send its trainers to Crimea, according to current and former officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified matters.
Här är en annan artikel om Irans involvering i kriget. Tydligen hade Ryssland problem att operera drönarna på egen hand.

Ukraine war: Russia admits Kherson 'tense' under shelling
BBC skrev:The commander of Russian forces in Ukraine says the situation in the southern city of Kherson is "difficult" and residents are to be evacuated.

[...]

His rare admission of big problems was echoed by a top local official.

Russian-installed regional official Kirill Stremousov warned Kherson residents that "in the very near future" Ukrainian troops would launch an assault on the city.
Är det politiskt möjligt för Ryssland att lämna Cherson innan staden omringas helt? Att tvångsevakuera civila skulle dock hjälpa att rädda de ryska soldaterna.

Putin on Track to Disappoint Multiple Competing Factions in Russia
ISW skrev:Russian President Vladimir Putin is consolidating his power projection system around those willing to pursue his unchanged maximalist goals in Ukraine. He is increasingly spotlighting and relying on a smaller cadre of highly devoted followers in his power circles and a silent majority in the Russian population who will simply comply.

Putin is on a path to disappoint all elements of his power projection system. Putin is on a trajectory to disappoint the extreme nationalists rallying around the idea of a total victory in Ukraine, which he cannot deliver. He is also on a trajectory to disappoint core elements of his regime who want a powerful Russia for selfish and ideological reasons, as Putin risks destroying Russia’s remaining strength and ability to project power globally in pursuit of his objectives in Ukraine. Putin’s value proposition to both his overt and latent support bases among the population is diminishing, while his demands of them are growing.
ISW har en artikel om Putins oförmåga att balansera olika intressen.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 7 421 enheter, varav 1 400 stridsvagnar. Därmed har ytterligare en milstolpe nåtts.
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