Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Putin Orders New Rules for Defense Firms in Case of Martial Law
Bloomberg skrev:Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Friday laying out new rules for tightening control of companies that fail to fulfill defense contracts in the event martial law is imposed, the latest step in the Kremlin’s preparations for militarizing the economy as its invasion of Ukraine stretches into a second year.

[...]

The Kremlin has imposed martial law in the regions of Ukraine its forces currently occupy, except Crimea. Officials have said there are no plans at present to enact it more widely despite periodic calls over the last year to do so.
Putin hotar med nationalisering. När det väl har börjat gå utför kan det rasa snabbt. De neutrala indierna är måttligt imponerade av mästerstrategen:
Oliver Carroll skrev:These days, Russian FM Lavrov doesn’t usually go anywhere near hostile crowds. He underestimated this Indian audience.
Vem ska Putin lita på om inte de neutrala indierna?

Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. Clash Over Oil, Yemen as Rift Grows
WSJ skrev:Still formally allies, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. have diverged on several fronts, competing for foreign investment and influence in global oil markets and clashing on the direction of the Yemen war. The disagreements once unfolded behind closed doors but are increasingly spilling out into the open, threatening to reorder alliances in the energy-rich Persian Gulf at a time when Iran is trying to exert more sway across the region and Russia’s war in Ukraine has raised crude prices and roiled OPEC decision-making.

[...]

The Emiratis clashed with the Saudis last October when OPEC+—a 13-nation group that includes OPEC and 10 other countries, including Russia—decided to dramatically reduce oil production to prop up crude prices.

In public, the U.A.E. supported the production cut. But U.S. officials said the Emiratis told them privately that they wanted to pump more, in line with Washington’s wishes, but faced resistance from Saudi Arabia. Since then, the U.A.E. has privately pushed OPEC+ to let it produce more, Gulf energy officials said.
Snart kan Ryssland till och med förlora det implicita stödet från oljekartellen Opec!

Russian warplane crashes in occupied Donetsk region
Militarnyi skrev:A Russian warplane had crashed in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk region.

[...]

At first, the cause of the warplane crash was unknown. Russian propaganda media assumed that the warplane had been shot down with a “friendly” anti-aircraft fire of the invasion forces.

Later, the press service of the Air Force of Ukraine reported that it was Ukrainian soldiers who had shot down an enemy Su-34.
Det har varit ganska många fall av vådabeskjutning i detta krig, men tydligen inte denna gång.

Video Shows Drone Landing On Russian A-50 Radar Jet That Was Supposedly Attacked
The War Zone skrev:A video has emerged showing a drone that is claimed to have been launched by a Belarusian partisan group, landing on the radar dome of a Russian A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft at Machulishchy Air Base, Belarus. The video was released by BYPOL, the organization of Belarusian military dissidents opposed to the Lukashenko government that claims it struck the A-50, damaging it in two critical places — its radome and its upper forward fuselage area — on February 26. BYPOL says this video was taken during a period of “two weeks [when] Belarusian partisans conducted aerial reconnaissance at Machulishchy military airfield with the help of civilian drones purchased in a store.”
Kommer denna incident att begränsa Rysslands vilja att använda AWACS framöver?
Senast redigerad av Enceladus den fredag 03 mars 2023 19:29, redigerad totalt 5 gång.
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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En intressant nyhetspodd från finska YLE:s svenskspåkiga redaktion, där journalisten Johannes Taberman intervjuar Kinakännaren Jerker Hellström

Kinas roll i kriget – därför vill Xi diktera fredsvillkoren i Ukraina

och försöker förstå vad som ligger bakom den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturens sk. "fredsplan".
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5905
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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The Donald lovar att göra slut på kriget (senast) under sin första dag i ovala rummet: Tal hållet på de amerikanska högerextremisternas CPAC-möte.


Han berättar inte hur, men en av hans anhängare i kommentarsfältet gör det:
Bookhermit skrev:Of course he could end the war quickly - ANY sane person could. Just end all support for Ukraine and all sanctions on Russia, and demand Ukraine stop shooting and start peace talks NOW!
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: söndag 05 mars 2023 14:10 The Donald lovar att göra slut på kriget (senast) under sin första dag i ovala rummet: Tal hållet på de amerikanska högerextremisternas CPAC-möte.
Trump vill göra Ukrainakriget till valfråga
DN skrev:Det är morgon i Amerika, så löd det populära budskapet från den konservativa ikonen Ronald Reagan i återvalskampanjen 1984. Då var Republikanerna ett parti som ville förmedla framtidstro.

[...]

Hotet om kärnvapenkriget passar in i den före detta presidentens mörka världsbild. Skrämda människor ska lockas att lägga sin röst på en auktoritär ledare. Det är inte morgon i Trumps Amerika, det är becksvart natt.
Ja, Trump lovar att förhindra det tredje världskriget. Retoriken om ett kärnvapenkrig är dock förvånansvärt lik en viss skribents i denna tråd...
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: söndag 17 juli 2022 21:42 De som vill syna Medvedev räcker upp en hand!
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: söndag 05 mars 2023 14:23 Ja, Trump lovar att förhindra det tredje världskriget. Retoriken om ett kärnvapenkrig är dock förvånansvärt lik en viss skribents i denna tråd...
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: söndag 17 juli 2022 21:42 De som vill syna Medvedev räcker upp en hand!
Suck, när ska vakthavande i Enceladus-kollektivet fatta att halmdockor inte fungera på mig. Det där Trump- och kärnvapensmetandet är ett förvånansvärt återkommande tema hos Enceladus-kollektivet. Jag tog hand om dessa lögnaktiga påhopp senast i december förra året viewtopic.php?p=410907#p410907
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: torsdag 28 juli 2022 7:59
Enceladus skrev: torsdag 28 juli 2022 3:03
På tal om ryska drömmar:
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: onsdag 27 juli 2022 22:52 Oavsett hur man bedömer den ryska retoriken så är risken för ett kärnvapenkrig knappast mindre nu än före den 24/2
Givetvis kunde skribenten inte hålla sig från att återge den ryska retoriken i stort sett rakt av. Sannolikheten för ett kärnvapenkrig är i princip obefintlig så länge Putin inte deklarerar krig och mobiliserar. Att mobilisera är fortfarande en mycket mindre risk för Putin än att använda kärnvapen, och ändå vågar inte Putin.
Återigen en av Enceladus-kollektivets fräcka lögner. Inte ens ett så modest yttrande som ovanstående passar Enceladus-kollektivets propagandism, som lögnaktigt beskriver det som "återge den ryska retoriken i stort sett rakt av". Dessutom har kollektivet behändigt nog klippt bort den referens jag hänvisat till, i "The Atlantic", och som för ett balanserat resonemang kring ämnet. Det är Wilderäng-fasoner att vifta bort kärnvapenoptionen, någon som har synts genomgående i argumentationen, eller vad man nu ska kalla det. Enceladus-kollektivet skulle behöva öva sig lite i både argumentationsanalys och kritiskt tänkande, något som lyser helt med sin frånvaro nu.

I övrigt rekommenderas denna BBC-artikel:
World was safer during Cold War - security adviser

Sir Stephen Lovegrove
De som verkligen vill läsa vad jag skrev den 17 juli, iställer för Enceladus-kollektivets citatförfalskningar kan ju följa den här länken: viewtopic.php?p=407703#p407703

Försök med någonting annat Hanif Bali-taktik nästa gång!
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5905
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: söndag 05 mars 2023 14:23
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: söndag 05 mars 2023 14:10 The Donald lovar att göra slut på kriget (senast) under sin första dag i ovala rummet: Tal hållet på de amerikanska högerextremisternas CPAC-möte.
Trump vill göra Ukrainakriget till valfråga
DN skrev:Skrämda människor ska lockas att lägga sin röst på en auktoritär ledare.
Ja, underskatta inte rädda och skrämda människor. Det har hänt förr.

En rädd medelklass är farligare än du tror

Och här framgår ju direkt vad de amerikanska högerextremisterna är beredda att ta till:
  1. Republicans at CPAC make false claims about Biden, Zelensky, the FBI and children
  2. Zelensky didn’t say American sons and daughters have to fight in Ukraine
Här är det ju fråga om en citatförfalskning värre än vad Enceladus-kollektivet förmår. Observera att referens 1. ovan endast avser de högerextremistiska angreppen på president Zelensky - de amerikanska inrikespolitiska frågorna som berörs där är inte min sak att kommentera.

Men det här kommer ju från CNN och det vet ju alla att CNN är vänsterliberal smörja, som en viss partiledare brukar uttrycka det. Visserligen har faktakontrollen gjorts även av Reuters och BBC, men det vet ju alla att det är samma sak där.

Det ger ett bisarrt intryck att se hur Eisenhowers och Reagans parti nu kapats av rena fascister. Här är Monica Crowley, som tidigare hade en post i Trump-administrationen, och som startade ovanstående lögnkampanj: https://twitter.com/MonicaCrowley

PS. Varning: Ovanstående kan innehålla spår av ironi.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: lördag 04 mars 2023 22:55 Här verkar det vara en hel del upphetsade twitter-kommentarer till slaget om Bakhmut, som förefaller ha potential att bli något i stil med slaget vid Verdun under WW1.
Russian mercenary chief says he needs help to seize Ukraine's Bakhmut
Reuters skrev:The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary force said on Monday he needed the regular army to supply him with more ammunition, reinforcements and covering support if he was to win the months-long battle of attrition for Ukraine's Bakhmut.

The appeal from Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin came amid signs of a deepening rift between him and the defence ministry whom he has bitterly criticised for months and accused of deliberately starving his men of ammunition, an allegation it has rejected.

[...]

He noted that Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in chief of Ukraine's armed forces, had said he favoured the continued defence and reinforcement of Bakhmut and said it was obvious that Kyiv would fight for Bakhmut "to the end".
Wagners ledare Prigozjin klagar över den skriande bristen på ammunition. Vidare varnar han för att de ryska frontlinjerna kring Bachmut kommer att kollapsa om Wagners styrkor inte snabbt får mer ammunition.

Ukrainian commanders agree to maintain Bakhmut defense
POLITICO skrev:During a regular staff meeting for the supreme commander in chief, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed the situation in Bakhmut with Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, Ukraine’s armed forces commander-in-chief, and commander of the Khortytsia operational and strategic group of troops, Oleksandr Syrsky. Syrsky recently returned from Bakhmut, where he visited Ukrainian soldiers.

“The commanders talked about further actions in the Bakhmut direction and spoke in favor of continuing the defense operation,” Zelenskyy’s office said in a statement. “In addition, the parties discussed the supply of weapons and equipment and their distribution to operational directions.”

[...]

The the ministry also noted Ukraine was reinforcing Bakhmut with elite units. “Within the last 36 hours two key bridges in Bakhmut have been destroyed, including a vital bridge connecting the city to the last main supply route from Bakhmut to the city of Chasiv Yar,” a British defense ministry statement read. “Ukrainian-held supply routes are very limited.”
Samtidigt skickar Ukraina fler styrkor till Bachmut. Borde Ukraina retirera från de "smärtsamma och svåra" striderna i den sönderbombade staden Bachmut?

CNN: Russia lost 5 times more soldiers in Bakhmut than Ukraine
The Kyiv Independent skrev:Russian troops have lost at least five service people for every Ukrainian soldier killed defending Donetsk Oblast's Bakhmut, CNN reported on March 6, citing an unnamed NATO military official.

The official told CNN that the 5:1 ratio was an estimation based on the alliance's intelligence, adding that Ukraine has also suffered significant losses on the Bakhmut front line.

[...]

Syrskyi added, however, that the Ukrainian military in Bakhmut "inflicted significant losses on the enemy, destroyed a large number of vehicles, forced Wagner's best assault units to fight, and reduced the enemy's offensive potential."
Den ukrainska militären vet förhoppningsvis vad den gör, och Prigozjin klagar väl inte utan anledning.

Ukrainian Soldiers, Nearly Encircled, Push Russians Back
The New York Times skrev:“I’m confident Bakhmut will hold,” said Col. Yevhen Mezhevikin, commander of a combined tactical group fighting in Bakhmut. “We have enough forces to throw the enemy back from this city, but it depends on the tasks the command has, be it holding the city, or inflicting maximum losses on the enemy.”

Soldiers on the ground expressed weariness, but they did not seem ready to give up.

[...]

“We broke their backbone; we killed all their military staff,” Major Pantsyrny said.

He said that only a few professional soldiers seemed to be left to direct thousands of convicts who had been recruited to fill the ranks, and that the losses showed: “They try something, but the results are not the same anymore.”

[...]

Ukrainian casualties have been relentless, too, and there is a shortage of volunteers in places on the front lines, Duke said. In November, he was given an urgent order “to gather all the people of our unit, cooks, drivers, press officer, photographer, all staff, take rifles and go to the Bakhmut area.”

By the end of February, they had rotated out with 50 percent of the men wounded, he said, some depressed and apathetic.
Dessvärre lider båda sidor stora förluster i slaget om Bachmut, även om siffrorna är till Ukrainas fördel. Utnötningskrig är brutala:
Michael Kofman skrev:Rob and I were in Bakhmut last week and the situation looked difficult. From artillery ammo shortages, increasingly contested lines of communication, and an attritional battle in unfavorable terrain - this fight doesn’t play to Ukraine’s advantages as a force. More to follow.

I think the tenacious defense of Bakhmut achieved a great deal, expending RU manpower and ammunition. But strategies can reach points of diminishing returns, and given UA is trying to husband resources for an offensive, it could impede the success of a more important operation.
Militäranalytikerna Kofman och Rob Lee har nyss besökt den sönderbombade staden. Försvaret av Bachmut har gjort stor nytta, men kan ha nått vägs ände.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russia's Jan-Feb budget deficit widens to $34 bln as spending soars
Reuters skrev:Russia’s federal budget deficit widened to 2.58 trillion roubles ($34.19 billion) in the first two months of the year as Moscow drastically raised expenditure while revenue fell amid slumping oil and gas takings, the finance ministry said on Monday.

[...]

Oil and gas revenues were 46.4% lower at 947 billion roubles in Jan-Feb than in the same period last year, the finance ministry’s preliminary data showed, with overall budget revenues for the month down 24.8%.

Spending was 51.5% higher in the first two months of 2023, at 5.74 trillion roubles. In the same period last year, Russia had recorded a surplus of 415 billion roubles.

The finance ministry stopped publishing monthly budget fulfilment data last year. Monday’s data suggests that the monthly budget deficit narrowed to 821 billion roubles in February, down from a record 1.76 trillion roubles in January.
Klockan fortsätter att ticka.

The Russia-Ukraine war remapped the world’s energy supplies, putting the U.S. at the top for years to come
CNBC skrev:As Europe struggled with threats to its supply of natural gas imports from Russia, U.S. exporters and others scrambled to divert cargoes of liquified natural gas from Asia to Europe. Russian oil has been sanctioned, and the European Union no longer accepts Moscow’s seaborne cargoes. That has resulted in a surge in U.S. crude and refined product shipments to Europe.

[...]

Not since the aftermath of World War II has the U.S. been so important as an energy exporter. The Energy Information Administration said a record 11.1 million barrels a day of crude and refined product were exported in the week ended Feb. 24. That is more than the total output of either Saudi Arabia or Russia, according to Citigroup, and compares with 9 million barrels a day a year ago.

[...]

“It’s amazing to think of all those decades of concern about energy dependence to find the U.S. is the largest exporter of LNG and one of the largest exporters of oil. The U.S. story is part of a larger remapping of world energy,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global. “What we’re seeing now is a continuing redrawing of world energy that began with the shale revolution in the United States. ... In 2003, the U.S. expected to be the largest importer of LNG.”
Den enes död är den andres bröd.

China has a fateful choice to make on Ukraine
Financial Times skrev:Influential voices in Beijing fully understand the risks of supplying Russia with the crucial munitions that Moscow’s forces are running short of — such as artillery shells and drones. In the Financial Times last week, Zhou Bo, a former colonel in the People’s Liberation Army, wrote: “If Beijing takes Moscow’s side in the conflict, then we are already in the dawn of the third world war.”

Put like that, a Chinese decision to supply Russia with weapons sounds inconceivable. And yet the US government believes that there is a serious debate under way in Beijing — and that China may ultimately make this fateful decision.


[...]

For that reason, China may choose an uneasy compromise. It will continue to present itself as a neutral peace broker in Ukraine, assuring visitors like Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, that it has no intention of supplying Russia with munitions. Meanwhile, it may attempt to funnel weaponry to Russia indirectly, perhaps through third countries such as Iran or North Korea. The president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, visited Xi in Beijing last month — the first visit to China by an Iranian president in 20 years.

But a policy of covert or deniable Chinese military support to Russia is no magic bullet for Beijing. It might be too restricted to turn the tide of the war in Putin’s favour. And it would still be vulnerable to detection by the US.
Xi står inför ett svårt beslut. Om Kina inte hjälper Ryssland militärt så kommer Ryssland sannolikt att kollapsa på slagfältet. Om Kina däremot hjälper Ryssland militärt så kommer istället Kinas ekonomi att kollapsa. Det finns en tredje utväg, men en halvmesyr kan ge det sämsta av två världar.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 9 547 enheter, varav 1 810 stridsvagnar, 77 flygplan, 79 helikoptrar, 7 strids- och 189 spaningsdrönare.

Russian soldiers execute Ukrainian PoW after he says "Glory to Ukraine"
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:The footage shows a Ukrainian soldier, who had been taken into Russian captivity, saying: "Glory to Ukraine". After that, the Russian invaders executed the prisoner of war, shouting: "You're a b**ch. Die, b**ch".
För att parafrasera diplomaten Talleyrand: Detta är värre än ett brott, det är ett misstag. Förstår inte Putin att brutala krigsbrott ökar stödet för Ukraina?
Enceladus
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Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Hungary Needs to Think Hard About Future Russia Relations, Orban Says
Bloomberg skrev:Hungary may need to re-think its cozy relationship with Russia in the future due to shifting geopolitical realities in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said.

While it’s in Hungary’s interest to maintain ties to Russia, especially due to its energy reliance, Europe’s relations with Moscow may not be rebuilt following the conclusion of the war, forcing Hungary to also adjust, Orban said at an economic forum in Budapest on Thursday.

[...]

It’s unclear whether Orban, whose aides are reportedly making technical preparations to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, was signalling a potential policy U-turn with his remarks.
Et tu, Orban? Han måste förstå vartåt det barkar. Dessutom är Ungern ett kustlöst land - och därmed beroende av sina grannländer. Det gick ju inte så bra när Vucic bjöd in Putins torped Lavrov till Serbien...

Georgien är nästa arena för konflikten mellan Ryssland och väst
DN skrev:Oppositionen ser lagen som just rysk och regeringspartiet som Putins lakejer. Att partiets grundare, oligarken Bidzina Ivanisjvili, gjorde sin förmögenhet i Moskva glömmer ingen.

Kommer protesterna att utvecklas till ”ett nytt Majdan”, liknande det ukrainska upproret 2013–14?

[...]

Grundkonflikten handlar om Georgiens framtid. Över 80 procent av befolkningen är för ett närmande till EU, samtidigt som regeringen medvetet tycks sabotera detta.
Det börjar hetta till i Georgien där protesterna växer mot det styrande partiet Georgiska drömmens Putin-inspirerade lag om "utländska agenter".

Broken Dream: The oligarch, Russia, and Georgia’s drift from Europe
ECFR skrev:Three-quarters of Georgians see themselves as pro-Western; only a tiny proportion of the population is pro-Russian.

Oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili appears to be largely responsible for this dissonance between Georgian foreign policy and public opinion.

Through his control of the Georgian Dream party and the government, Ivanishvili may be attempting to manoeuvre Georgia into Russia’s sphere of influence.
Georgien och dess folk förtjänar bättre.

Russian Cyberwar in Ukraine Stumbles Just Like Conventional One
Bloomberg skrev:Cybersecurity officials familiar with the conflict say a primary reason is that Ukraine was ready for it – and had considerable help from technology companies based in the US and elsewhere to bolster its cyber defenses.

[...]

The conflict has also had ramifications for the ransomware sector. US officials have accused the Russian government of turning a blind eye to the groups that conduct financially motivated cyberattacks on American businesses, government agencies, health-care facilities, schools and other organizations.

Politics caused a split in one notorious group, Conti, which collected an estimated $180 million in payments in 2021 alone. By February 2022, the group was in tatters after its leaders made a public declaration supporting the invasion of Ukraine. Days later, chat logs detailing the gang’s internal deliberations began leaking online.
Den minskade toleransen för ryska utpressningsprogram är väl en av krigets positiva sidor...
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Chefen för Litauens militära underrättelsetjänst Elegijus Paulavicius presenterade nyligen en översikt över Litauens säkerhetsläge:
Latest Lithuanian intelligence threat assessment report reviews security situation in Lithuania

och ska då ha yttrat till de närvarande journalisterna:
Reuters skrev:"The resources which Russia has at the moment would be enough to continue the war at the present intensity for two years",
Russia can fight in Ukraine for two more years at current intensity, Lithuania says

För säkerhets skull och för att slippa de ryggmärgsreflexmässiga beskyllningarna från Enceladus-kollektivet om "rysk propaganda" så återger jag ytterligare två nyhetskällor här:
Russia ready to continue war in Ukraine for another two years – Lithuanian intelligence

Russia can continue war with Ukraine with current intensity for two more years – Lithuanian intelligence
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 10 mars 2023 9:42 För säkerhets skull och för att slippa de ryggmärgsreflexmässiga beskyllningarna från Enceladus-kollektivet om "rysk propaganda" så återger jag ytterligare två nyhetskällor här:
Många experter tycks vara överens om att Ryssland har två år kvar. Varför skulle detta vara rysk propaganda? Enligt Putin har Ryssland all tid i världen...
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 10 mars 2023 0:17 Iran har väl varit en potentiell kärnvapenmakt länge. Vad IAEA:s fynd betyder är svårbedömt.
Saudi Arabia Offers Its Price to Normalize Relations With Israel
The New York Times skrev:Still, Riyadh’s requests present several obstacles. U.S. officials have long been wary of Saudi efforts to establish a civilian nuclear program. They fear it could be a first step toward a nuclear weapon, which Riyadh may seek as insurance against a potentially nuclear-armed Iran. It is unclear what the terms of a security agreement might be, but they are likely to be well short of a mutual defense guarantee like the one that binds NATO nations, people familiar with the discussions said.
Saudiarabien verkar i alla fall vara av uppfattningen att situationen har förvärrats avsevärt och letar därför desperat efter allierade.

Iranian official says purchase of Russian fighter jets complete
Semafor skrev:Iran’s Mission to the United Nations confirmed to Semafor that it has finalized a deal with Moscow to purchase advanced Sukhoi SU-35 fighter jets — the first official confirmation of a high-stakes transaction with implications from the front lines in Ukraine to the delicate balance of power in the Middle East.

Tehran’s statement follows my Monday story that detailed secret efforts by Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to lobby the Kremlin against making the sale.

Iran’s spokesman in New York, Mojtaba Babaei, denied U.S., European, and Ukrainian charges that Tehran and the Kremlin are cooperating in Ukraine, largely through the deployment of Iranian drones. But he provided details on the fighter-jet sale, though not their delivery date or numbers.
Det militära samarbetet mellan Iran och Ryssland kanske äntligen kan få Israel och Saudiarabien att ompröva deras ambivalenta relationer med Ryssland.

Israel Still Should Not Provide Weapons to Ukraine
The National Interest skrev:First, Iran has supplied Russia with 1,700 drones, is apparently building a factory in Russia to produce as many as 6,000 more, and may provide it with ballistic missiles. In return, Russia has reportedly agreed to supply Iran with SU-35s fighters, helicopters, and possibly the S-400 air-defense system, warships, submarines, and satellites. Russia and Iran already cooperate in the cyber realm. They also recently signed two agreements designed to promote bilateral economic ties and circumvent international sanctions: a “transportation corridor” from Russia to Iran and out to the Far East; and an alternative mechanism to the global SWIFT system. Israel must avoid measures that may lead to an even closer Russian-Iranian strategic alliance.
Detta israeliska förhållningssätt håller på att nå vägs ände...
Enceladus
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Enceladus skrev: fredag 03 mars 2023 19:06 Tycoon Deripaska Warns Russia May Run Out of Money in 2024
Russia's corporate profits fell 12.6% in 2022 amid sanctions - data
Reuters skrev:Russian companies made profits of 25.93 trillion roubles ($342.1 billion) last year, data from the federal statistics service showed on Friday, down 12.6% from 2021 as large swathes of business grappled with sweeping Western sanctions.

[...]

Officials have flagged the drop in corporate profits as a key area of concern for the economy, which contracted by 2.1% last year, and is set for another decline in 2023, according to most estimates.

[...]

Russian companies’ profits amounted to 2.18 trillion roubles in December, a 22.5% drop from 2.81 trillion roubles in December 2021, the Rosstat data showed.

Despite the lower corporate profits, Russia’s government is planning to levy a one-off “voluntary” windfall tax on big business, a prospect tabled in light of a widening budget deficit and narrowing current account surplus.

[...]

It is not yet clear whether banks, whose profits slumped around 90% in 2022, would have to contribute.
Oligarken Deripaska kanske har en poäng, trots uppenbara intressekonflikter...

How the IMF naively parroted Putin’s fake statistics–and botched its economic forecast for Russia
Fortune skrev:The IMF’s dubious methodology in tracking the Russian economy warrants close scrutiny. Nothing short of its institutional credibility is at risk, especially since the current IMF chief, Kristalina Georgieva, has been accused of pressuring economists to boost China’s business climate ratings during a previous tenure at the World Bank, which she denies.

For starters, the IMF’s forecast of economic growth in Russia exceeds even that of the Russian central bank, which expects GDP to fall by at least 1.5% this year. Even Russian oligarchs such as aluminum tycoon Oleg Deripaska are openly fretting about how Putin will run out of cash next year–and how he’s been cannibalizing Russian companies to make ends meet! Yet the truth is, as they candidly admitted to us, the IMF Russia Desk economists have “basically zero visibility” into what is actually going on in the Russian economy.
Somliga organisationer har dessvärre en tendens att skönmåla verkligheten i länder som Kina, Ryssland och Iran.

Turkey blocks Russian transit of sanctioned goods
bne IntelliNews skrev:Russian shipping companies are facing a blanket ban by Turkey’s Customs Service on transit declarations for goods on the EU sanctions list to Russia, Vedomosti and Kommersant daily reported citing market participants.

As covered by bne IntelliNews, the US officials are working behind the scenes in a diplomatic push to keep Russia’s major trading partners enforcing sanctions, trade controls and minimising the “sanction leakage”. In the meantime, reports suggested that the EU will also be shifting focus from adopting new sanctions to tougher enforcement of the existing ones.

[...]

Analysts surveyed by RBC believe that should Turkey be forced to ban all exports of sanctioned goods to Russia, this would mean that it will have to find detours through the UAE, Iran and China. For trucks, one of the few alternative routes would remain the ferry to Georgia via the Black Sea. However, any rerouting will have an effect on the delivery length and cost.
Tumskruvarna dras åt. I nuläget är det förmodligen viktigare att upprätthålla befintliga sanktioner än att införa nya.

As Russia’s War in Ukraine Drags On, Its Military Equipment Gets Worse and Worse
Popular Mechanics skrev:One year into its invasion of neighboring Ukraine, Russia’s Ground Forces increasingly resemble a traveling museum, with “new” replacement vehicles dating back to the mid-20th century. Armored vehicles such as the T-62 medium tank (seen above) and the BTR-50P armored personnel carrier are serving on the front line or headed that way, while Russia’s new generation of Armata, Bumerang, and Kurganets fighting vehicles are missing in action.

[...]

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Russia’s brand-new tank, the T-14 Armata, was introduced in 2015. Russia was supposed to have 2,300 Armatas by 2025, suggesting that at least a thousand should be in service by now. Yet, as of March 2023 there is still no production line for the tank and few, if any, are in Russian Ground Forces service.

[...]

Most modern militaries introduce newer and more equipment over time, particularly in wars. The Russian Army is being forced to do things backwards, reaching deeper and deeper into its arsenals for increasingly outdated equipment. The Russian Army of 2025 was supposed to have 2,300 Armata tanks—thanks to the corruption of Putin’s kleptocracy, it will be lucky to have 2,300 serviceable tanks at all.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 9 605 enheter, varav 1 825 stridsvagnar, 77 flygplan, 79 helikoptrar, 7 strids- och 191 spaningsdrönare.
Enceladus
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Why Russia Has Such a Strong Grip on Europe’s Nuclear Power
The New York Times skrev:For countries with Russian-made reactors, reliance runs deep. In five European Union countries, every reactor — 18 in total — was built by Russia. In addition, two more are scheduled to start operating soon in Slovakia, and two are under construction in Hungary, cementing partnerships with Rosatom far into the future.

[...]

At the same time, Rosatom has proved uniquely successful as both a business enterprise and a vehicle for Russian political influence. Much of its ascendancy is due to what experts have labeled a “one-stop nuclear shop” that can provide countries with an all-inclusive package: materials, training, support, maintenance, disposal of nuclear waste, decommissioning and, perhaps most important, financing on favorable terms.

[...]

Russia’s tightest grip is on the market for nuclear fuel. It controls 38 percent of the world’s uranium conversion and 46 percent of the uranium enrichment capacity — essential steps in producing usable fuel.

[...]

Around a quarter of the European Union’s electricity supply comes from nuclear power. With pending climate disaster prompting a worldwide push to decrease the overall use of fossil fuels, nuclear energy’s role in the future fuel mix is expected to increase.

Still, analysts argue that even without formal sanctions, Russia’s position as a nuclear supplier has been permanently compromised.

At the height of the debate in Germany last year over whether to keep its two remaining nuclear power plants online because of the war, their reliance on uranium enriched by Russia for the fuel rods emerged as one of the arguments against extending their lives. The last two reactors are to be shut down next month.

[...]

Mr. Choho at Westinghouse was confident about the company’s ability to compete with Rosatom in Europe, estimating that it eventually could capture 50 to 75 percent of that nuclear market. Westinghouse has also signed an agreement with the Spanish energy company Enusa to cooperate on fabricating fuel for Russian-made reactors.
Det kommer att ta tid att bryta Rysslands dominans inom kärnkraftsbranschen. Men blir det europeiska aktörer som ersätter?

Has Putin’s assault on Ukraine’s power grid failed?
BBC skrev:"It's safe to say that Ukraine won on the energy front," said Tetyana Boyko from civic network Opora, praising the fleet of energy workers and international help. "Let's pray, but I think the worst-case scenario is over."

[...]

Every one of Ukraine's thermal and hydroelectric power plants has been damaged since Russia launched its assault on the energy infrastructure last October. Kyiv had already lost the use of Europe's biggest nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia, which is in Russia hands.

[...]

In Zhytomyr, Eugene Herasymchuk believes things are looking up. "A lot of Ukrainians say it's better to have one cold and one dark winter than 100 years with Russia - so I think we can handle this."
Putin har förlorat energikriget mot såväl Europa som Ukraina.

Head of KSE Institute Nataliia Shapoval: “Russia has almost exhausted its sustainability limit”
KSE skrev:In 2023, KSE Institute experts predict a significant drop in the Kremlin’s oil and gas revenues, from $350 billion in 2022 to $175 billion. As a result, the federal budget deficit of the Russian Federation is expected to grow to about 6% of the country’s GDP, in contrast to 2.3% in the previous year.

The amount of reserve funds to support the Russian economy and the purchase of critical imports has significantly decreased. If Moscow uses liquid funds from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) at the same rate as in the 4Q2022, there is a high chance of depleting them before the end of 2023.

[...]

Shapoval noted that increased sanctions alone will not stop the war, but increasing economic pressure has had a significant impact on the ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine. As a result, the Kremlin will be much more willing to negotiate, and the Ukrainian government will have a stronger negotiating position.
Kyiv School of Economics har en bra sammanställning av Rysslands makroekonomiska situation. Det ser inte bra ut på några års sikt!

Første Leopard 1-kampvogne klar til Ukraine i maj
Berlingske skrev:De første af omkring 100 Leopard 1-kampvogne fra Danmark, Tyskland og Holland bliver klar til brug i Ukraine i starten af maj.

Det oplyser fungerende forsvarsminister Troels Lund Poulsen (V).
Den första leveransen av ett hundratal Leopard 1-stridsvagnar från Danmark, Tyskland och Nederländerna sker i början av maj. Den äldre Leopard 1 är en mindre bepansrad modell som påminner mer om de stridsvagnar Ukraina redan har än den modernare Leopard 2. Icke desto mindre är den ett bra tillskott.
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Enceladus skrev: fredag 10 mars 2023 11:41
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 10 mars 2023 9:42 För säkerhets skull och för att slippa de ryggmärgsreflexmässiga beskyllningarna från Enceladus-kollektivet om "rysk propaganda" så återger jag ytterligare två nyhetskällor här:
Många experter tycks vara överens om att Ryssland har två år kvar. Varför skulle detta vara rysk propaganda? Enligt Putin har Ryssland all tid i världen...
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 10 mars 2023 0:17 Iran har väl varit en potentiell kärnvapenmakt länge. Vad IAEA:s fynd betyder är svårbedömt.
Saudi Arabia Offers Its Price to Normalize Relations With Israel
The New York Times skrev:Still, Riyadh’s requests present several obstacles. U.S. officials have long been wary of Saudi efforts to establish a civilian nuclear program. They fear it could be a first step toward a nuclear weapon, which Riyadh may seek as insurance against a potentially nuclear-armed Iran. It is unclear what the terms of a security agreement might be, but they are likely to be well short of a mutual defense guarantee like the one that binds NATO nations, people familiar with the discussions said.
Saudiarabien verkar i alla fall vara av uppfattningen att situationen har förvärrats avsevärt och letar därför desperat efter allierade.
Nä, ingen har påstått att detta är rysk propaganda - inte ens Enceladus-kollektivet (åtminstone inte denna gång).

Misstankarna om Saudiarabiens förhållningssätt inför det iranska kärnteknikprogrammet har funnits länge. Vad saudierna håller på med, om de försöker etablera en kärnbränslecykel och om de verkligen har fått igång sin forskningsreaktor vid King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology är oklart.

Civila reaktorer för elproduktion finns annars att köpa in, vilket Förenade Arabemiraten gjort, nämligen kärnkraftverket Barakah, som fullt utbyggt ska rymma fyra APR-1400-reaktorer från Sydkorea. Det hade ju Saudiarabien också kunnat göra (pengar är antagligen inget problem) varför man kan ana andra syften än behovet av elproduktion bakom.

Nu har ju Saudiarabien förargligt nog anslutit sig till icke-spridningsavtalet, men det kan man ju lämna. Nordkorea och Iran visar vägen!
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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Enceladus skrev: lördag 11 mars 2023 12:16 Det kommer att ta tid att bryta Rysslands dominans inom kärnkraftsbranschen. Men blir det europeiska aktörer som ersätter?
Om man med "kärnkraftsbranschen" menar tillverkning av elproducerande kärnreaktorer så finns egentligen bara en sådan i Europa, franska Framatome, som levererar en vidareutveckling av det som ursprungligen var Westinghouse tryckvattenreaktor (som ex.vis Ringhals R3 och R4), den sk. EPR-reaktorn (European Pressurised Reactor). Den har väl inte varit direkt framgångsrik, åtminstone inte i Europa. Den otursförföljda finska Olkiluoto O3 började byggas 2005 men har hittills endast försöksvis kunnat producera e. Ännu värre är det för den franska motsvarigheten Flamanville 3, som började byggas 2007 men ännu inte ens kunnat tas i provdrift. I Kina finns dock två EPR-reaktorer i drift, Taishan 1 och 2. I UK byggs fn. två EPR-reaktorer, Hinkley Point C 1 och 2.

Utöver detta driver Roll-Royce projektet Rolls-Royce SMR. som syftar till att konstruera det svenska högerblockets kelgris, en Small Modular Reactor (SMR), fastän med en elektrisk effekt på 470 MW, vilket motsvarar den första (numera avstängda) svenska reaktorn Oskarshamn O1.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
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Could Myanmar Be Implicated in Russia’s War Against Ukraine?
VOA News skrev:Russia is trying to buy “anything, anywhere”—including from Southeast Asian countries like Myanmar to get weapons for its invasion of Ukraine—according to the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence Kyrylo Budanov.

[...]

In an assessment on Russia, the Pentagon stated that after more than a year of fighting in Ukraine and facing strong sanctions from the West, Russia would run out of serviceable ammunition sometime in 2023.

[...]

“For Russia, almost the only country that actually supplies more or less serious weapons is Iran,” Budanov told VOA. “There was information that something was coming from North Korea, but we have no confirmation of that.”

[...]

Western countries, including the U.S., have raised concerns over the potential arming of Russia through its geostrategic partnership with China. However, “China had declared it won’t supply Russia with weapons for its war against Ukraine,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said during his news conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in Berlin earlier this month. He suggested that Berlin has received bilateral assurances from Beijing on the issue.
Börjar Putin bli desperat?

How quickly can Russia rebuild its tank fleet?
The Economist skrev:This means that, although Russia can only build 20 new tanks a month, it may soon be able to resurrect 90 or so a month from its boneyards. Still, that would not make up for the estimated 150 it is losing each month, according to analysis by Oryx. And production may be hampered by shortages of parts. Semiconductors, the computer chips that control modern tanks, are in particularly short supply. The European Commission claims that Russia is using chips from imported dishwashers and refrigerators in military hardware. Some newly refurbished tanks in Ukraine contain a hodgepodge of hardware from different models and lack high-tech gear, such as wind-speed sensors, which allow accurate shooting.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 9 628 enheter, varav 1 831 stridsvagnar, 77 flygplan, 79 helikoptrar, 7 strids- och 193 spaningsdrönare.

India to ensure no breach on Russia oil purchase sanctions
The Economic Times skrev:India will not breach Western sanctions on Russia including the price cap of $60 imposed on purchases of oil from Moscow, according to people familiar with the matter.
Även Indien ansluter sig till pristaket på rysk olja.
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En intressant artikel: Why Russia’s manpower advantage may not be enough to win the war in Ukraine
Russia is sending hundreds of thousands of conscripts into the battle — and vowing to fight for as long as it takes.
Grid News skrev:Russia’s “partial mobilization” hasn’t led to a major shift in battlefield momentum. It has now been several weeks since NATO and Ukrainian officials said they believed a “major” Russian offensive had begun in the east of the country, but progress has been underwhelming so far.

Russians have suffered heavy losses in what appears to be yet another chaotic and poorly planned offensive on the town of Vuhledar in Donetsk. Bakhmut — or rather what’s left of Bakhmut — is likely to fall soon, but as Grid has previously reported, the symbolic significance that battle has taken on exceeds the city’s strategic importance. There may be many more Bakhmuts — human wave assaults and devastating artillery barrages reducing places to rubble with high casualties on both sides — in the coming months.

Ukraine is expected to launch a major counteroffensive of its own this spring. It remains to be seen how well Russia’s newly reinforced positions will hold up, but most analysts are skeptical that rapid gains like those made in Kharkiv last fall will be repeated.

In short, it’s possible that Russia’s manpower advantage will not be enough to win the war, but that it will be enough to avoid defeat. And that’s a recipe for an even longer and deadlier conflict.

It’s not as if any country can ever exactly afford the kind of casualties we’re seeing in this war. But even before the war, both countries were in a state of precipitous demographic decline, with high death rates, low fertility and increasing emigration. The year before the war, Russia’s population fell by almost 1 million people, the fastest decline since World War II. And even before millions fled the war last year, Ukraine’s was one of the fastest-shrinking populations on earth.

What gets euphemistically called “manpower” in military terms is in fact a collection of human lives: mostly young men who might otherwise be starting families or contributing to their communities and countries. Their loss will be felt in both societies long after the guns fall silent.
Om Grid News: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_News
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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The Russia That Might Have Been
Foreign Affairs skrev:Moreover, a Russia that remained friendly to both China and the United States–led West could have remained flexible and pragmatic when deciding how to respond to geoeconomic initiatives such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2016, or China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the 2010s. The Russian government could also have worked with both Chinese and Western global vendors on cutting-edge technologies like 5G, at the same time as trying to enhance domestic production and play a bigger role in the international supply chain. With its permanent seat on the UN Security Council, vast carbon-dioxide-absorbing forests, and natural resources to produce clean fuels like hydrogen, Russia could have begun to play a leading role in the global response to climate change.

[...]

The main reason for Russia’s missed opportunities lies in the choices that Putin and the country’s elites have made over the past two decades, and the direct connection of these choices to Russia’s domestic politics. Concerns about U.S. efforts to impose democracy via “color revolutions” in Georgia and Ukraine fed into Putin’s growing suspicions and hostility toward the West. The decision to center Russia’s prosperity on the state-controlled extraction sector instead of building a diversified economy anchored in the rule of law was also a fateful choice that set Russia on its current course. Over the past decade, Putin and his inner circle gradually suppressed the discussions that had been taking place in society and among the elite about a new, more open Russian state and replaced them with propaganda and imperial nostalgia, which fell on fertile ground following the trauma of the Soviet collapse.
Framtiden ser onekligen mörk ut för Putins Ryssland. Vem kommer att investera i landet framöver?

Russia outlines plan to pilot 5G networks on homegrown equipment in 2025
Data Centre Dynamics skrev:The country has fallen behind in the 5G race following the fallout of its conflict with Ukraine, with high-profile vendors Ericsson and Nokia exiting Russia. Chinese vendor Huawei hasn't exited the Russian market, but has set out plans to separate its Russian and Belarusian business units from the rest of the countries in the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) block, and has moved thousands of employees out of the country and closed down its local Enterprise Business Group.

Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, foreign vendors previously helped with limited 5G test zones in the country.

[...]

This contract will see 75,000 base stations delivered until 2030, while operators will only be able to purchase domestic base stations from 2028, notes Tass.
På något sätt ska Ryssland på egen hand utmana både väst och Kina i den tekniska utvecklingen...

Russia’s economy holds up, but growing challenges test Putin
AP News skrev:While 191 foreign companies have left Russia and 1,169 are working to do so, some 1,223 are staying and 496 are taking a wait-and-see approach, according to a database compiled by the Kyiv School of Economics.

[...]

Estimates differ on how hard those measures will hit. Experts at the Kyiv School of Economics say Russia’s economy will face a “turning point” this year as oil and gas revenue falls by 50% and the trade surplus plunges to $80 billion from $257 billion last year.

[...]

He said the real impact will be long term. The loss of Western technology such as advanced computer chips means an economy permanently stuck in low gear.
Rysslands utsikter är dock inte lika ödesdigra på kort sikt - till Ukrainas förtret.

China’s Xi to Speak to Zelensky, Meet Next Week With Putin
WSJ skrev:Chinese leader Xi Jinping plans to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time since the start of the Ukraine war, likely after he visits Moscow next week to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to people familiar with the matter.

The meetings with Messrs. Putin and Zelensky, the latter of which is expected to take place virtually, reflect Beijing’s effort to play a more active role in mediating an end to the war in Ukraine, some of the people said.

[...]

China’s last ambitious effort to play the role of global peacemaker came in the early 2000s, when it launched six-party talks aimed at curtailing North Korea’s nuclear weapons program in exchange for aid. The talks, which included the U.S., failed in 2008 when North Korea withdrew despite relying heavily on economic support from Beijing.

Achieving a breakthrough in Ukraine would be a taller task than the Saudi-Iran deal, especially as both sides in the war believe too much remains to be played out on the battlefield. Neither has shown an inclination to stop fighting.
Vågar Xi göra ett överraskningsbesök i Kyjiv?

Exclusive: Seoul mayor calls for South Korean nuclear weapons to counter threat from North
Reuters skrev:South Korea should build nuclear weapons to bolster its defences against North Korea, even at the risk of international repercussions, the mayor of its capital city said, arguing that the country cannot be bound by the goal of denuclearisation.

[...]

In a poll released on March 1 by Data Research, more than 70% of South Koreans supported developing nuclear weapons with 27% opposed; 59% said North Korea would probably use nuclear weapons if war breaks out on the peninsula.

[...]

"Russia freely violates Ukraine's airspace, flying bombers and firing missiles ... but Ukraine barely attacks Russian territory because of the psychological inferiority to a nuclear state," Oh said.
Putin lär bli ihågkommen som mannen bakom den nya eran av kärnvapenspridning, speciellt om det faktiskt blir kärnvapenkrig.
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Enceladus skrev: måndag 13 mars 2023 13:04 Exclusive: Seoul mayor calls for South Korean nuclear weapons to counter threat from North
Reuters skrev:South Korea should build nuclear weapons to bolster its defences against North Korea, even at the risk of international repercussions, the mayor of its capital city said, arguing that the country cannot be bound by the goal of denuclearisation.

[...]

In a poll released on March 1 by Data Research, more than 70% of South Koreans supported developing nuclear weapons with 27% opposed; 59% said North Korea would probably use nuclear weapons if war breaks out on the peninsula.

[...]

"Russia freely violates Ukraine's airspace, flying bombers and firing missiles ... but Ukraine barely attacks Russian territory because of the psychological inferiority to a nuclear state," Oh said.
Putin lär bli ihågkommen som mannen bakom den nya eran av kärnvapenspridning, speciellt om det faktiskt blir kärnvapenkrig.
Det är mycket osannolikt att Sydkorea verkligen skulle vilja skaffa sig kärnvapen, oavsett vad enstaka politiker uttalar (som nu Seouls borgmästare). Nackdelarna med att slå in på den vägen är alltför stora: The Disastrous Downsides of South Korea Building Nuclear Weapons (38 North)

38 North is a project of The Henry L. Stimson Center.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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Enceladus skrev: måndag 13 mars 2023 13:04 Russia’s economy holds up, but growing challenges test Putin
AP News skrev:While 191 foreign companies have left Russia and 1,169 are working to do so, some 1,223 are staying and 496 are taking a wait-and-see approach, according to a database compiled by the Kyiv School of Economics.

[...]

Estimates differ on how hard those measures will hit. Experts at the Kyiv School of Economics say Russia’s economy will face a “turning point” this year as oil and gas revenue falls by 50% and the trade surplus plunges to $80 billion from $257 billion last year.

[...]

He said the real impact will be long term. The loss of Western technology such as advanced computer chips means an economy permanently stuck in low gear.
Rysslands utsikter är dock inte lika ödesdigra på kort sikt - till Ukrainas förtret.
Ytterligare ett skäl som talar för att Gustav Gressel gör en korrekt bedömning - kriget tar inte slut i år. Och då är vi inne USA:s presidentvalskampanj inför valet hösten 2024. Den som orkar kan ju lyssna på Donald Trumps tal på högerextremistkongressen CPAC den 4 mars i år. Dessförinnan var det väl bara Fidel Castro, av västra halvklotets politiska ledare, som kunde hålla lika långa och svulstiga tal.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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