Forum - Spårvägssällskapet.se

(((Tendar))) skrev:The development in the Glushkovo area, Kursk region, in Russia are very intriguing. Both on an operational but also on a strategic level.

Russian channels report that the village Veseloe has been taken by Ukrainian forces, which based on the videos we have seen are very likely. It brings Ukrainian forces in close range with Glushkovo and threatens to split this pocket south of the Seym river to be split in two.

Furthermore and even worse for Russians, it is an assault into Russia's rear of their ongoing counteroffensive, whose results are murky at best. Aside from 3 villages and some failed assaults further east, we have seen nothing what backs up Russian gains in Kursk. It wouldn't matter much either when reflecting the following point. Having Russians commit resources in Kursk has been most certainly the very idea by the Ukrainian high command.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑söndag 14 april 2024 7:14 F.ö. är det inte Europa utan Tyskland som förlitar sig på Arrow-3, även om Scholz försöker dra med sig fler i sitt ESSI-hopkok.

DN skrev:I Israel vill militärmyndigheterna inte avslöja några detaljer om hur roboten trängde genom de påkostade försvarssystemen. Roboten ser ut att ha träffats ytligt av en luftvärnsrobot från det israeliska systemet Arrow, men den förstördes inte. Den jemenitiska missilen exploderade strax efteråt i luften, inte långt ifrån Israels internationella flygplats Ben-Gurion.

Det tar tolv minuter för en robot av detta slag att avverka de 200 milen från norra Jemen till Tel Aviv. Luftvärnssystemet Arrow, som utvecklats gemensamt under snart 40 år av Israels flygvapenindustri och USA:s Boeing, har till uppgift att preja och spränga sönder inkommande ballistiska robotar strax efter att de trätt in i atmosfären – inte i sista sekunden ovanför bebyggda områden.

Arrow, är det meningen, ska kunna hantera stora mängder fienderobotar samtidigt. Att systemet har svårt att skjuta ned en ensam robot är oroväckande, med tanke på att det stora hotet för Israels del är den libanesiska Hizbollahmilisens ballistiska robotar. Hizbollah har ännu inte avfyrat några sådana, av rädsla för att utlösa ett storkrig. Men om och när det sker så har de israeliska försvarssystemen inte mer än några minuter på sig att hitta och skjuta ned dem.

[...]

Huthiernas systematiska attentat mot sjöfarten har stoppat nästan all verksamhet i Röda havets viktigaste hamnar, Suez i Egypten, Eilat i Israel och Aqaba i Jordanien. Dessutom har Suezkanalen, en av Egyptens viktigaste inkomstkällor, mist nära 80 procent av sin trafik. I veckan gästade en huthisk delegation Kairo för samtal om detta.

Reuters skrev:Ukraine's foreign ministry said on Friday that Russia had launched 8,060 Iran-developed Shahed drones at Ukraine since it began its full-scale invasion 2-1/2 years ago.

[...]

Ukraine's Western allies said ballistic missile supplies would mark an escalation in the war.

Kyiv said it could cut diplomatic ties with Tehran if those missiles were used by Russia to strike at Ukraine.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑söndag 15 september 2024 9:25 Och vem kommer att benåda dem som ev. blir föremål för federalt åtal pga. ovanstående?

Reuters skrev:Ryan Routh, the reported suspect in an apparent assassination attempt on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, visited Kyiv in the summer of 2022 to encourage people to fight for Ukraine, he told a news outlet that year.

[...]

"A lot of the other conflicts are grey but this conflict is definitely black and white. This is about good versus evil," Routh said in an interview posted by Newsweek Romania in June 2022. His comments suggested he was in Kyiv at the time.

[...]

Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation said Sunday's incident was already a "topic for Russian propaganda" and suggested Moscow would spread conspiracy theories attempting to show a "Ukrainian trace" to the apparent assassination attempt.

CNN skrev:Of all the days to count Loomer as a travel companion, September 11 was notable. Last year, she posted a video on social media claiming that the attack on the World Trade Center towers was an “inside job,” an illogical but pervasive conspiracy theory that continues to haunt the families of victims and survivors. Her anti-Muslim social media posts eventually earned her a ban from Twitter that lasted until billionaire Elon Musk bought the website, now known as X, and restored her account.

[...]

Two days before the debate, Loomer said that if Harris, who is half Indian, wins, “the White House will smell like curry & White House speeches will be facilitated via a call center.”

It was a bridge too far even for Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a notorious firebrand herself known to promote conspiracy theories, who wrote on social media that Loomer’s post was “appalling and extremely racist.”

Enceladus skrev: ↑söndag 08 september 2024 21:21 MBS tycks göra allt för att Trump ska vinna valet, men det går inte vägen. USA pumpar mer olja än något land i historien. Samtidigt behöver Putin mer utsläpp:

gCaptain skrev:In a risky move aimed at overcoming Western sanctions Russian LNG producer Novatek dispatched the non-ice class LNG carrier Everest Energy onto the icy waters of the Northern Sea Route “NSR”. It is the first time a conventional carrier has attempted the route.

The voyage represents a further escalation of the risk profile of Arctic shipping. Everest Energy does not hold a permit by Russia’s Arctic permitting authority, the Northern Sea Route Administration. It is also traveling under a suspended Palauan flag with its P&I insurance status unknown.

[...]

Russia’s initial attempts to deliver sanctioned cargo from Arctic LNG 2 to customers via traditional shipping routes have thus far been foiled by repeated rounds of U.S. sanctions. More than five weeks after carrier Pioneer picked up the first cargo from Novatek’s flagship project several vessels remain bogged down in the Mediterranean and the Arctic.

gCaptain skrev:Russia’s nascent LNG shadow fleet remains in a state of disarray with no completed deliveries more than six weeks after LNGC Pioneer lifted the first cargo in early August. Over the weekend LNGC Asya Energy called at the Arctic LNG 2 project for a second time loading the fifth batch of super-chilled gas.

U.S. sanctions and the suspension of ship registrations by Palau appear effective at slowing down Arctic LNG 2’s export plans. The first four loadings remain in limbo with the destination of the fifth one likewise yet to be determined.

[...]

These logistical challenges stand to increase in the months to come as sea ice returns to the region limiting the use of the currently deployed conventional carriers. Ice-capable vessels ordered for the project remain stuck at South Korea’s Hanwha shipyard.

Enceladus skrev: ↑lördag 31 augusti 2024 21:12 En enklare förklaring är att Himars spökar igen!

DN skrev:– Hela deras garnison på vår sida av floden behöver mat och ammunition, och de behöver en bro för det. Ju snabbare vi förstör deras logistikvägar, desto snabbare kan våra killar röra sig framåt, säger han till den brittiska tidningen.

Ryssarna försöker hela tiden ersätta förstörda övergångar med nya pontonbroar. Men så snart ukrainarna hittar en intakt pontonbro skickar de koordinaterna till andra enheter i området – sedan attackeras bron med artilleri från luften eller marken.

[...]

– Så småningom kommer man tills vägs ände. Men om man från rysk sida satsar på att hålla förbindelsen över floden öppen lär man nog försöka göra det så länge som möjligt.

j skrev:The pontoon chess around the Seym River north of Glushkovo continues, as we can see with todays Sentinel-2 images.

Currently this one around 51.375769, 34.619636 is in use.

Russia lost a substantial amount of pontoon equipment (mostly PMP´s) there over the time. Some of the vehicles didn´t even manage to become deployed (Vid is from 08/2024).

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 23 juli 2024 21:43 Moscow residents to receive one-time payment equivalent to nearly $22,000 for joining the Russian army

DN skrev:– Ukrainas framryckning i Kursk visade att Ryssland har mycket begränsade, om några reservstyrkor, säger Golts.

[...]

Det framgår inte under vilka omständigheter de 180 000 personerna ska rekryteras. Ryska regimen betalar numera stora summor pengar till de som går med i armén.

Enligt Golts handlar det om ett engångsbelopp på uppskattningsvis 65 000–200 000 svenska kronor beroende på var i Ryssland man befinner sig. Därefter väntar en månatlig lön på cirka 21 000 kronor.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑söndag 08 september 2024 10:55 "Luktar lite Mossad..."? Hur står det egentligen till på Jernkontoret?

WSJ skrev:Its front line is on occupied Ukrainian farmlands, from which Russia and its partners have sold almost $1 billion in stolen grain on a burgeoning black market.

Moscow’s forces in Ukraine since 2022 have occupied some of Europe’s most fertile farmland. The occupiers have either seized harvests or bought them cheaply, often forcibly.

The business involves a wide network of clients who benefit from Moscow’s wartime patronage system, including a Russian shipyard equipping the invasion, a company affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and a Crimean businessman who trades with Syria and Israel. Another company sells through the United Arab Emirates.

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 17 september 2024 0:48

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑söndag 08 september 2024 10:55 "Luktar lite Mossad..."? Hur står det egentligen till på Jernkontoret?

How Russia Profits From Ukraine Invasion by Selling Stolen Grain on a Global Black Market

WSJ skrev:Its front line is on occupied Ukrainian farmlands, from which Russia and its partners have sold almost $1 billion in stolen grain on a burgeoning black market.

Moscow’s forces in Ukraine since 2022 have occupied some of Europe’s most fertile farmland. The occupiers have either seized harvests or bought them cheaply, often forcibly.

The business involves a wide network of clients who benefit from Moscow’s wartime patronage system, including a Russian shipyard equipping the invasion, a company affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and a Crimean businessman who trades with Syria and Israel. Another company sells through the United Arab Emirates.

Skribenten har avfärdat cheferna på CIA och MI6 som propagandister. Däremot är det knäpptyst om Mossad...

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 06 juli 2023 9:36 PÅ tal om hökar. Såhär kan man tydligen beskriva Oslo-konventionen

Carlos Mucha skrev:That we’re not shipping UA cluster munitions is batshit crazy, they are (per US Army) 6 to 15 X more efficient than high explosive shells but most of our European allies signed a unilateral disarmament CM treaty & the Biden WH doesn’t want to make them look stupid

"Batshit" var en intressant språklig innovation, t.o.m. för att komma från en högervriden amerikan.

DN skrev:Vid sidan av EU:s nya utrikeschef, Estlands förra premiärminister Kaja Kallas, står Andrius Kubilius från Litauen, som får den sprillans nya posten försvarskommissionär. Hans uppgift blir rätt och slätt att få fram mer vapen till Ukraina och rusta upp Europa, med hjälp av EU-pengar och lättade EU-regler.

I finländska Henna Virkkunens digitala säkerhetsportfölj ligger ansvar att bekämpa ryska cyberattacker och stärka Europa mot desinformation. Nya digital- och medielagar lär så småningom komma från hennes håll.

Det är inte en slump att denna nya säkerhetstrio kommer från länder som i EU-sammanhang är Rysslandshökar.

Financial Times skrev:While the original scheme — involving US participation — remains the commission’s plan A, officials argue they need an alternative if Budapest keeps its veto in place until the US election.

[...]

According to that plan, the EU and US would shoulder about $20bn each, with the remaining $10bn shared between the UK, Japan and Canada.

[...]

The EU plan would provide some of the $20bn intended to come from Washington under the original G7 proposal if the Biden administration would be unable to grant the loan so close to the election. Brussels officials hope that Washington will still ultimately provide funds, reducing the EU’s exposure.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 11 januari 2024 19:55 Ukraina har ju i mångt och mycket fått improvisera sitt luftförsvar och skjuta med vad de har, och då kan man inte vara allt för kräsen, även om t.ex. Forbes miltärskribent, den idelige David Axe hävdar "The ZU-23-2s work just fine". Och det är klart, allt beror på vad man jämför med.

Serhii Sternenko skrev:Ukraine is the first country in the world to build air defense systems using drones.

This approach is significantly cheaper than traditional anti-aircraft complexes and can be deployed on a much larger scale.

Reuters skrev:Experts were mystified by the explosions but several who spoke to Reuters said they doubted the battery alone would have been enough to cause the blasts.

Paul Christensen, an expert in lithium ion battery safety at Newcastle University said the damage caused by the pager explosions seemed inconsistent with known cases of such batteries failing in the past.

"What we're talking about is a relatively small battery bursting into flames. We're not talking of a fatal explosion here. I'd need to know more about the energy density of the batteries, but my intuition is telling me that it's highly unlikely," he said.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑tisdag 16 juli 2024 15:22 Kanske det, ja. De tyska storkapitalisterna stödde ju ex.vis HItler för att de trodde att de skulle få sköta sina affärer i lugn och ro. Elon Musk är jag beredd att tro i stort sett vad som helst om. I ett scenario där Ukraina förlorat sin frihet och införlivats i den ryska federationen kan jag mycket väl tänka mig honom görande affärer med Putin. Men pengarna till Trump är säkert en väl använd investering om SpaceX sedan får i stort sett monopol på på amerikansk rymdverksamhet. T.ex.

I Ukraina finns nog mycket som oligarkerna skulle vilja exploatera.

The Independent skrev:JD Vance has suggested that American support for NATO should be predicated on the European Union not regulating Elon Musk and his X social media platform, formerly known as Twitter.

[...]

The US ranked 26th in the world when it comes to free speech, with several members of the European Union higher up the list, according to the 2024 Global Expression Report.

[...]

Vance has faced criticism for putting forward, in the same interview, a peace plan for the war in Ukraine that would appear to benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin, who views NATO as a top adversary.

The Guardian skrev:Of the 2.8m private cars registered in the Nordic country, 754,303 are all-electric, against 753,905 that run on petrol, the Norwegian road federation (OFV) said in a statement.

Diesel models remain the most numerous at just under 1m, but their sales are falling rapidly.

[...]

In August, all-electric vehicles made up a record 94.3% of new car registrations in Norway, boosted by sales of the Tesla Model Y.

[...]

Norway’s EV success is in sharp contrast to struggles seen elsewhere in Europe.

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 09 juli 2024 20:02 China’s Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shifts

Bloomberg skrev:Over the last year, the price for lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, battery cells in China has dropped 51% to an average of $53 per kilowatt-hour. The average global price of these batteries last year was $95/kWh.

[...]

The second driver is overcapacity that’s leading manufacturers to cut prices to maintain market share. China’s battery production is already higher than global EV demand, and that overcapacity problem is set to get worse before it gets better.

[...]

These ultra-low battery price have major implications for the automotive and power sectors. Battery cells at $50/kWh means the technology to decarbonize most of road transport globally is already here, as opposed to in some future scenario.

Den enes död är den andres bröd...

DN skrev:I elbilar där halva värdet utgörs av batterierna. På bara ett år har Kina nära halverat priset på litiumjonbatterier genom stora statliga subventioner. De kostar ner mot 50 dollar per kilowattimme på cellnivå jämfört med 95 dollar för ett år sedan.

Det är en revolution.

Det betyder nämligen att kinesiska elbilar redan är billigare att producera än bensinbilar och Kina låter nu sina billiga batterier och elbilar överflöda världsmarknaden.

[...]

För hur ska Europa hantera detta? Batterifabrikerna som Northvolt och Freyr skulle ju rädda biljobben när vi går över till elbilstillverkning som tarvar färre arbetare. Och vad innebär det egentligen om Kina blir global härskare över batteriproduktionen och hela dess värdekedja?

Elon Musk skrev:

Eric Berger skrev:Just want to point out that it's wild the European Union just launched some of its most valuable satellites, two Galileo spacecraft, on a Falcon 9 rocket making its 22nd flight. Unimaginable even two or three years ago.

If the rest of the year goes well, SpaceX will deliver ~90% of all Earth’s payload to orbit.

China will do ~6%, rest of the world combined ~4%.

Enceladus skrev: ↑onsdag 18 september 2024 6:35 Låt oss hoppas att Kina fortsätter att sälja kritiska drönarkomponenter till Ukraina, med eller utan mellanhänder.

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 17 september 2024 23:33

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 06 juli 2023 9:36 PÅ tal om hökar. Såhär kan man tydligen beskriva Oslo-konventionen

Carlos Mucha skrev:That we’re not shipping UA cluster munitions is batshit crazy, they are (per US Army) 6 to 15 X more efficient than high explosive shells but most of our European allies signed a unilateral disarmament CM treaty & the Biden WH doesn’t want to make them look stupid

"Batshit" var en intressant språklig innovation, t.o.m. för att komma från en högervriden amerikan.

Sigrid Melchior: Rysslandshökar och klimatpolitiker i nya EU-kommissionen

DN skrev:Vid sidan av EU:s nya utrikeschef, Estlands förra premiärminister Kaja Kallas, står Andrius Kubilius från Litauen, som får den sprillans nya posten försvarskommissionär. Hans uppgift blir rätt och slätt att få fram mer vapen till Ukraina och rusta upp Europa, med hjälp av EU-pengar och lättade EU-regler.

I finländska Henna Virkkunens digitala säkerhetsportfölj ligger ansvar att bekämpa ryska cyberattacker och stärka Europa mot desinformation. Nya digital- och medielagar lär så småningom komma från hennes håll.

Det är inte en slump att denna nya säkerhetstrio kommer från länder som i EU-sammanhang är Rysslandshökar.

Den nya EU-kommissionen ska ledas av hökar från Estland, Litauen och Finland - tre länder som har dissat Oslo-konventionen.

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 17 september 2024 23:33 På tal om brisader, över 4 000 personer har skadats i Libanon efter att personsökare har exploderat i en attack som påminner om Stuxnet. Det luktar Mossad:

Reuters skrev:Experts were mystified by the explosions but several who spoke to Reuters said they doubted the battery alone would have been enough to cause the blasts.

Paul Christensen, an expert in lithium ion battery safety at Newcastle University said the damage caused by the pager explosions seemed inconsistent with known cases of such batteries failing in the past.

"What we're talking about is a relatively small battery bursting into flames. We're not talking of a fatal explosion here. I'd need to know more about the energy density of the batteries, but my intuition is telling me that it's highly unlikely," he said.

Finns det ens tillräckligt med energi i personsökarnas batterier för att kunna orsaka svåra sprängskador? Annars måste sprängämne ha placerats i enheterna.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑måndag 18 mars 2024 7:29 Ja, det var ju den där lilla detaljen med att få ihop pengarna. Det verkar ju finnas en viss efterfrågan på artillerigranat globalt, om man säger så, och det kanske inte precis är köparens marknad.

Janis Kluge skrev:This is the consequence of the massive fiscal stimulus caused by war spending. Military spending in the federal budget alone has increased by 4% of GDP (from 3-4% before 2022 to 7-8% now). The total is higher: War spending now permeates all budgets (think of the regional signing bonuses for new recruits). State and private companies also contribute, making the assessment of actual military spending more difficult.

[...]

There are two ways this shift can occur: A businessman may decide to stop investing in his civilian enterprise, or even shut down parts of it, because his capital can earn even more producing drones or metal goods. This is the voluntary "carrot" variant of structural change, where he is better off than before. Or he may be forced out of business as labor costs, interest costs, or taxes become overwhelming. This would be the "stick" variant of structural change.

Similarly, a Russian worker may decide to go to war or move to another city to work in the defense industry because it will make him richer than before. This is the "carrot" militarization for workers: new opportunities that are much more lucrative than the old job. But there is also a "stick" variant of militarization for the worker: His salary at the old job could shrink in real terms, or the old employer could go out of business. This would force the worker to look for work elsewhere.

[...]

Given these three options - inflation, high interest rates, or high taxes - which stick will the Russian government choose? With real interest rates at 10% (9% inflation and 19% key rate), it seems that the government is most afraid of letting the inflation stick get out of hand, and would rather suffocate the civilian economy with high taxes and worsening financial conditions to make space for the war.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑onsdag 18 september 2024 11:01 Hoppas kan man ju alltid, men den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen bedriver ingen välgörenhet.

Reuters skrev:Beijing, as a vote on EU duties on China-made electric vehicles looms, employed a carrot-and-stick approach to deal with the 27-strong bloc, threatening trade retaliation while cajoling key EU states into one-on-one talks on deals and investments.

[...]

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez wrapped up a China visit this week by sitting in a Chinese EV and saying it was an "honour". He then unexpectedly urged the EU to reconsider its position.

[...]

As a sweetener, a Chinese company agreed to build a $1 billion plant in Spain to make machinery used for hydrogen production, in apparent backing for Spain's green ambitions.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑onsdag 18 september 2024 11:43 Oavsett hur detta rent tekniskt gick till så visar det hur israelerna kunnat infiltrera leveranskedjorna av, i detta fall personsökare (en urgammal teknik, som kan förmedla enklare textmeddelanden men som är svårare att spåra än mobiltelefoner), och att det också tydligen finns gott om förrädare både inom Hizbollah och Iran som ä beredda att gå Israel tillhanda. Av motsvarande intresse inom mitt område är möjligheten att infiltrera leveranskedjorna av läkemedel och andra medicinska preparat.

Reuters skrev:Hand-held radios used by Lebanese armed group Hezbollah detonated on Wednesday across Lebanon's south, further stoking tensions with Israel a day after similar explosions hit the group's pagers.

Lebanon's health ministry said 14 people were killed and about 450 injured on Wednesday in Beirut's suburbs and the Bekaa Valley, while the death toll from Tuesday's explosions rose to 12, including two children, with nearly 3,000 injured.

[...]

Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi accused Israel of pushing the Middle East to the brink of a regional war by orchestrating a dangerous escalation on many fronts.

NBC News skrev:An electronics manufacturer in Taiwan said Wednesday that a company based in Hungary made the pagers bearing its brand that were used by members of the militant group Hezbollah and exploded simultaneously across Lebanon on Tuesday.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 01 februari 2024 8:16 Ja, Viktor är en slipad manipulatör (åtminstone anser han det nog själv) och en -el på att lämna dubbla budskap. Det har han lärt sig av sin kompis (han har två, även om dessa kompisar inte är kompisar med varandra, om man säger så)

POLITICO skrev:According to the officials, six Armenians were recruited to undergo three months of training in Russia and were paid monthly salaries of 220,000 rubles ($2,377) while learning how to use weaponry. They also reportedly underwent background checks and polygraph tests to determine their allegiances, before being transferred to “Arbat military base” in Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia.

[...]

Russian border guards, who had been stationed in Armenia since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, were asked to withdraw from their posts earlier this year. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told POLITICO in September 2023 that a Russian peacekeeping mission in Azerbaijan’s breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region had failed to do its job. Just days later, Moscow’s forces stood aside when Azerbaijan launched a new offensive in the enclave, sparking the mass exodus of its entire Armenian population.

Speaking earlier on Wednesday, Pashinyan vowed that Armenia’s pivot toward the West would continue. “If we see a more or less realistic possibility of becoming a full member of the European Union,” he said, “we will not miss that moment.”

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑fredag 06 september 2024 10:33 Som jag har framhållit tidigare är en betydande del av det amerikanska biståndet nytillverkning, eftersom även USA har begränsningar i hur mycket de kan plocka direkt ur sina arsenaler. Det där har varit ett genomgående problem sedan krigets början. USA och Nato har för små arsenaler och för litet tillverkningskapacitet. Nu börjar man adressera detta, men det tar tid.

Och Ukraina behöver sin materiel nu - och nu har varat en längre tid redan.

The Hill skrev:The Speaker faced a troika of GOP opposition, with hardline conservatives criticizing the use of a continuing resolution; defense hawks voicing concern about the impact the long-term funding bill would have at the Pentagon; and moderates expressing worries about having a shutdown threat so close to the election.

[...]

A clean stopgap bill, however, would spark intense howls from hardline conservatives in the House, who are pushing for a long-term continuing resolution. It would also anger Trump, who has urged Republicans to shut down the government if the funding legislation does not bolster election integrity.

[...]

The dynamics are posing a challenge for Johnson, who is working to grow his House GOP majority and hoping to remain Speaker next year — the latter of which will require buy-in from hardliners to come to fruition. His prospects for continuing his tenure as GOP leader would also improve with the backing of Trump, especially if he wins the presidential election in November.

Enceladus skrev: ↑onsdag 18 september 2024 23:04

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑måndag 18 mars 2024 7:29 Ja, det var ju den där lilla detaljen med att få ihop pengarna. Det verkar ju finnas en viss efterfrågan på artillerigranater globalt, om man säger så, och det kanske inte precis är köparens marknad.

From carrots to sticks: How the militarization of Russia's economy is changing

Janis Kluge skrev:This is the consequence of the massive fiscal stimulus caused by war spending. Military spending in the federal budget alone has increased by 4% of GDP (from 3-4% before 2022 to 7-8% now). The total is higher: War spending now permeates all budgets (think of the regional signing bonuses for new recruits). State and private companies also contribute, making the assessment of actual military spending more difficult.

[...]

There are two ways this shift can occur: A businessman may decide to stop investing in his civilian enterprise, or even shut down parts of it, because his capital can earn even more producing drones or metal goods. This is the voluntary "carrot" variant of structural change, where he is better off than before. Or he may be forced out of business as labor costs, interest costs, or taxes become overwhelming. This would be the "stick" variant of structural change.

Similarly, a Russian worker may decide to go to war or move to another city to work in the defense industry because it will make him richer than before. This is the "carrot" militarization for workers: new opportunities that are much more lucrative than the old job. But there is also a "stick" variant of militarization for the worker: His salary at the old job could shrink in real terms, or the old employer could go out of business. This would force the worker to look for work elsewhere.

[...]

Given these three options - inflation, high interest rates, or high taxes - which stick will the Russian government choose? With real interest rates at 10% (9% inflation and 19% key rate), it seems that the government is most afraid of letting the inflation stick get out of hand, and would rather suffocate the civilian economy with high taxes and worsening financial conditions to make space for the war.

Ja, det var ju den där lilla detaljen med att få ihop pengarna. Någon måste betala för kriget, och Putin är livrädd för okontrollerad inflation. Då offras ekonomin.

Enceladus skrev: ↑onsdag 18 september 2024 23:04

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑onsdag 18 september 2024 11:43 Oavsett hur detta rent tekniskt gick till så visar det hur israelerna kunnat infiltrera leveranskedjorna av, i detta fall personsökare (en urgammal teknik, som kan förmedla enklare textmeddelanden men som är svårare att spåra än mobiltelefoner), och att det också tydligen finns gott om förrädare både inom Hizbollah och Iran som ä beredda att gå Israel tillhanda. Av motsvarande intresse inom mitt område är möjligheten att infiltrera leveranskedjorna av läkemedel och andra medicinska preparat.

Hezbollah devices explode again in Lebanon, raising fears of wider Israel conflict

Reuters skrev:Hand-held radios used by Lebanese armed group Hezbollah detonated on Wednesday across Lebanon's south, further stoking tensions with Israel a day after similar explosions hit the group's pagers.

Lebanon's health ministry said 14 people were killed and about 450 injured on Wednesday in Beirut's suburbs and the Bekaa Valley, while the death toll from Tuesday's explosions rose to 12, including two children, with nearly 3,000 injured.

[...]

Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi accused Israel of pushing the Middle East to the brink of a regional war by orchestrating a dangerous escalation on many fronts.

Nya explosioner har inträffat i Libanon. Den här gången ska bland annat walkie-talkier ha exploderat. Bibi ger sig alltså inte, och han tycks ha fått hjälp:

NBC News skrev:An electronics manufacturer in Taiwan said Wednesday that a company based in Hungary made the pagers bearing its brand that were used by members of the militant group Hezbollah and exploded simultaneously across Lebanon on Tuesday.

Men det är kanske inte så oväntat:

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 01 februari 2024 8:16 Ja, Viktor är en slipad manipulatör (åtminstone anser han det nog själv) och en -el på att lämna dubbla budskap. Det har han lärt sig av sin kompis (han har två, även om dessa kompisar inte är kompisar med varandra, om man säger så)

Amended Protocol II skrev: Article 7: Prohibitions on the use of booby-traps and other devices
[.... ]

2. It is prohibited to use booby-traps or other devices in the form of apparently harmless portable objects which are specifically designed and constructed to contain explosive material.

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 17 september 2024 0:48 Ryssland har en skuggflotta av oljetankfartyg för att kringgå pristaket. Nu försöker Ryssland etablera en skuggflotta för att kringgå LNG-sanktioner, utan framgång.

Bloomberg skrev:Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 facility, sanctioned by the US last year, is struggling to find buyers, upending Moscow’s plans to expand exports of the super-chilled fuel. The facility has exported five shipments since August on dark fleet vessels, but the fuel has yet to be delivered to any nation.

[...]

Puri said the South Asian nation didn’t need to buy Russian LNG because it already has long term supply deals with Qatar and the US and its own gas output was also rising.

India continues to lift crude from Russia as it is not sanctioned, Puri said. “I think there is a vested interest in the global community, particularly in the United States, that Russian oil should keep flowing, but it should be within a price cap.”

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑söndag 18 augusti 2024 11:20 Är filmen ens äkta?

Bloomberg skrev:Ramzan Kadyrov, the notorious head of Russia’s Chechnya region, accused Elon Musk of remotely disabling a Tesla Inc. Cybertruck that he said had been used in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Kadyrov, a fierce supporter of President Vladimir Putin and the invasion of Ukraine, said Thursday in a post on Telegram that the vehicle had been fitted with a machine gun and used in the fighting there.

“The vehicle coped with its combat tasks beautifully,” Kadyrov said. “Now Musk recently turned off the Cybertruck remotely.”

Meduza skrev:At least two people were killed in a shooting in Moscow on Wednesday after a group reportedly led by businessman Vladislav Bakalchuk tried to break into the main headquarters of Wildberries, the online retailer that his wife founded. The incident comes just two months after Tatyana Bakalchuk, Russia’s wealthiest woman, announced that the couple were in the process of divorcing amid a merger between Wildberries and the advertising operator Russ Group, which Vladislav opposed. At least one of the men involved in the attempted break-in reportedly belongs to the mixed martial arts club founded by Chechnya Governor Ramzan Kadyrov, who blasted the merger alongside Vladislav Bakalchuk in a video posted shortly before Tatyana’s divorce announcement. Here’s what we know about the incident so far.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 19 september 2024 22:26 Ovanstående blir ändå fel. Spekulationer om vad slags material, i detta fall, en ryska sidan kan ha förlorat, utgör inte ett miltärtekniskt intresse. Uppgifter om hur attacken kan ha utförts och/eller vilka vapensystem som i så fall användes är däremot exempel på detta. Att Ukraina utför UAV-attacker mot div. ryska mål har varit känt länge.

Special Kherson Cat skrev:«At night, the Tikhoretsk district was subjected to a terrorist attack by the Kyiv regime. Two drones were suppressed by air defense and electronic warfare forces. The falling debris of one of them caused a fire that spread to explosive objects. Detonation began.»

[...]

/3. A very detailed article about the logistics of North Korean munition to Russia. Including detailed description of the transformation of Tikhoretsk ammunition storage facility into a hub for North Korean munition.

[...]

/6. Air raid alert in Tikhoretsk again. The detonation of munition is also still ongoing.

/7. The air raid alarm in Tikhoretsk was not triggered by a new Ukrainian attack, but by ammunition from a warehouse detonating and flying in all directions, including the city. An example is on video.

Tatarigami_UA skrev:3/ The Tikhoretsk ammo depot was expanded in 2023 to store North Korean munitions. Most ammo arrived by train in containers, unloaded and stored in revetments - essentially pits in the ground under open sky. Civilian trucks then transported the munitions to frontlines

4/ The ammunition didn’t remain at the depot for long, as it was quickly moved to the frontlines. This makes it more of a temporary storage site than a long-term facility in 2024. The success of this strike largely depends on the timing of the most recent ammo delivery.

5/ Given the near-total destruction of the 107th GRAU arsenal in Toropets, Tver Oblast, and the successful strike on the 23rd GRAU Arsenal, the hit on Tikhoretsk can be a serious blow not only to ammunition supplies but also to the logistics supporting the entire force groupings

[...]

Most of the big facilities are tied to railroads. Russia would need to create new storage sites farther away, near rail connections. It will overextend an already overloaded logistics. They were loading trucks from Tikhoretsk but imagine doing it from 600-800 km away

Special Kherson Cat skrev:/1. The Tikhoretsk ammunition depot was not the only Russian ammunition storage facility which got destroyed tonight.

The second, a bit smaller, arsenal in Toropets, Tver region, got targeted tonight as well.

FIRMS data: Toropets mmunition depot which was targeted several days ago is on top, the one which was targeted tonight is at the bottom.

[...]

As a standard response by Russian officials all the damaged was caused by debris of downed drones, as the governor of a Tver region reported that UAVs were shot down in the southwest of the Tver region by the forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Enceladus skrev: ↑onsdag 18 september 2024 8:02 Libaneserna minns säkert explosionerna i huvudstaden Beirut för fyra år sedan. Milisgruppen Hizbollah rekommenderas att hålla sig undan denna konflikt:

Aftonbladet skrev:Fartyget MV Ruby har 20 000 ton ammoniumnitrat ombord. Det är en farlig kemikalie som bland annat låg bakom den omtalade megaexplosionen i Beiruts hamn i Libanon 2020 – men då i mycket mindre mängder.

[...]

– Skadorna och kopplingarna till Ryssland gör att man i dessa tider höjer på ögonbrynen. Det har vi gjort och vi har satt beredskapsfunktionerna på tårna, säger Grevstad till GP.

[...]

Fartyget MV Ruby lastades i en rysk hamn på Kolahalvön och fick då skrovskador. Det är dock inte välkommet i slutdestinationen i Litauen. När fartyget tillfälligt ankrade i norska Tromsö upprättade myndigheterna en skyddszon om 500 meter. Det konstaterades att skadorna behövde repareras men att det inte var “önskvärt” i tätbefolkade Tromsö, rapporterar Aftonbladet.

[...]

Enligt danska Dagbladet Information är fartyget från Malta, ägt av syrier via ett holdingbolag i Libanon.

Novaya Gazeta Europe skrev:According to the as yet unpublished results, which have been shown to Novaya Gazeta Europe, 63% of Russians would favour a peace treaty being concluded between Russia and Ukraine to include concessions made by both sides, within the next year.

Some 49% of respondents said they would support peace talks with Ukraine and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, even if that meant Moscow failing to achieve the goals of the “special military operation”, initially described by Vladimir Putin as the “denazification and demilitarisation” of Ukraine. This is the highest recorded figure since the start of the war, according to Chronicles.

[...]

The number of those willing to sign a contract with the Russian Defence Ministry to fight in Ukraine has fallen from 42% to 32% since February 2023, according to the survey. The number of respondents who explicitly said they were unwilling to participate in the war increased from 21% to 30% over the same period.

Enceladus skrev: ↑lördag 21 september 2024 11:33

Enceladus skrev: ↑onsdag 18 september 2024 8:02 Libaneserna minns säkert explosionerna i huvudstaden Beirut för fyra år sedan. Milisgruppen Hizbollah rekommenderas att hålla sig undan denna konflikt:

Skadat fartyg med farlig last på väg mot Sverige

Aftonbladet skrev:Fartyget MV Ruby har 20 000 ton ammoniumnitrat ombord. Det är en farlig kemikalie som bland annat låg bakom den omtalade megaexplosionen i Beiruts hamn i Libanon 2020 – men då i mycket mindre mängder.

[...]

– Skadorna och kopplingarna till Ryssland gör att man i dessa tider höjer på ögonbrynen. Det har vi gjort och vi har satt beredskapsfunktionerna på tårna, säger Grevstad till GP.

[...]

Fartyget MV Ruby lastades i en rysk hamn på Kolahalvön och fick då skrovskador. Det är dock inte välkommet i slutdestinationen i Litauen. När fartyget tillfälligt ankrade i norska Tromsö upprättade myndigheterna en skyddszon om 500 meter. Det konstaterades att skadorna behövde repareras men att det inte var “önskvärt” i tätbefolkade Tromsö, rapporterar Aftonbladet.

[...]

Enligt danska Dagbladet Information är fartyget från Malta, ägt av syrier via ett holdingbolag i Libanon.

20 000 ton ammoniumnitrat motsvarar ungefär sprängkraften i "Little Boy"-bomben som släpptes över Hiroshima. Är detta fartyg verkligen önskvärt i Östersjön?

• As Russia shifts from gas exports to fertilizers, it is time for the EU to act
• ‘Flood’ of cheap Russian fertiliser risks Europe’s food security, industry says

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑lördag 21 september 2024 13:33 I teorin är det kanske så, men det ska mycket till för att ammoniumnitrat ska explodera på det sätt som skedde i Beirut (uppskattningarna av sprängstyrkan där varierar våldsamt, men någon slags övre gräns verkar vara drygt 1 kiloton). Ammoniumnitrat används förvisso i sk. ANFO-sprängämnen, då blandat med em mindre mängd dieselolja. Men även under de mest optimala förhållanden som krävs en ganska kraftig tändladdning för att för ANFO att explodera. Men ammoniumnitrat är en riskabel kemikalie som inte kan transporteras hursomhelst.

DN skrev:Nu har Estlands militära underrättelsetjänst gjort en bedömning av skadorna som åstadkoms. Enligt generalen Ants Kiviselg detonerade 30 000 ton sprängmedel, vilket motsvarar 750 000 artillerigranater.

Sett till Rysslands vanliga användning innebär det mellan två och tre månaders förbrukning, säger Kiviselg på en pressträff på fredagen.

– Den här attacken har inneburit ryska förluster av ammunition och vi kommer att få se följderna vid fronten de kommande veckorna, säger han enligt ERR.

Enligt Estland hade ny ammunition anlänt med tåg till vapenlagret strax före attacken och låg fortfarande ute när Ukraina slog till. När ammunitionen utomhus detonerade satte det igång en kedjeeffekt, som ledde till explosioner även i förråd och skyddsrum.

The Military Watch skrev:On 21 September 2024, NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System detected multiple fires at the Tikhoretsk Air Base, Krasnodar Krai, Russia. It is unclear whether the base was target of separate attack or the fires were caused by the explosion of nearby ammo depot.

Tikhoretsk AB is the home to 627 Training Aviation Regiment used by the Krasnodar Higher Military Aviation School of Pilots. Sat photos from 28 April '24 shows that in addition to the usual complement of L-39C and DA-42T trainers, at least 10 Su-27s (or Su-35) were deployed there

Low resolution Sentinel-2 sat imagery from 16 September 2024 shows up to 12 Su-27/Su-35 fighters present at the air base.

Enceladus skrev: ↑lördag 21 september 2024 14:05

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑lördag 21 september 2024 13:33 I teorin är det kanske så, men det ska mycket till för att ammoniumnitrat ska explodera på det sätt som skedde i Beirut (uppskattningarna av sprängstyrkan där varierar våldsamt, men någon slags övre gräns verkar vara drygt 1 kiloton). Ammoniumnitrat används förvisso i sk. ANFO-sprängämnen, då blandat med em mindre mängd dieselolja. Men även under de mest optimala förhållanden som krävs en ganska kraftig tändladdning för att för ANFO att explodera. Men ammoniumnitrat är en riskabel kemikalie som inte kan transporteras hursomhelst.

Militärchef: Ammunition för tre månader sprängdes i Toropets

DN skrev:Nu har Estlands militära underrättelsetjänst gjort en bedömning av skadorna som åstadkoms. Enligt generalen Ants Kiviselg detonerade 30 000 ton sprängmedel, vilket motsvarar 750 000 artillerigranater.

Sett till Rysslands vanliga användning innebär det mellan två och tre månaders förbrukning, säger Kiviselg på en pressträff på fredagen.

– Den här attacken har inneburit ryska förluster av ammunition och vi kommer att få se följderna vid fronten de kommande veckorna, säger han enligt ERR.

Enligt Estland hade ny ammunition anlänt med tåg till vapenlagret strax före attacken och låg fortfarande ute när Ukraina slog till. När ammunitionen utomhus detonerade satte det igång en kedjeeffekt, som ledde till explosioner även i förråd och skyddsrum.

Nä, och nordkoreanska vapen med en sprängkraft på några tiotals kiloton kan inte heller transporteras hursomhelst.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑måndag 13 mars 2023 22:41 Det är mycket osannolikt att Sydkorea verkligen skulle vilja skaffa sig kärnvapen, oavsett vad enstaka politiker uttalar (som nu Seouls borgmästare). Nackdelarna med att slå in på den vägen är alltför stora: The Disastrous Downsides of South Korea Building Nuclear Weapons (38 North)

38 North is a project of The Henry L. Stimson Center.

War on the Rocks skrev:Despite Washington’s efforts to alleviate South Korea’s security concerns, culminating in the April 2023 Washington Declaration, calls for nuclear armament in South Korea have not subsided. Recent polls show public support for nuclear armament consistently hovering above 70 percent. However, unlike the general public, the majority of South Korean elites do not favor outright nuclear armament. While some prominent politicians have advocated for nuclear armament, including President Yoon Suk Yeol and Minister of National Defense Kim Yong-hyun, opposition to nuclear armament prevails among South Korean elites, whose opinions carry more weight particularly in defense and national security issues. An April 2024 poll by Victor Cha found that only 34 percent of South Korean elites favored it, while 66 percent were against it.

[...]

This situation creates a dilemma: South Korean politicians must explain the need for nuclear latency to galvanize support, but doing so risks exposing their ambitions for nuclear armament, complicating efforts to obtain Washington’s approval. They should carefully navigate this dilemma, as their current approach risks undermining both Washington’s trust in South Korea and democratic principles.

[...]

Advocates for nuclear latency present several rationales to persuade Washington to consent to South Korea’s development of enrichment and reprocessing or pyroprocessing technologies. One of the key arguments is the need for enrichment capability to ensure a stable fuel supply for South Korea’s 26 nuclear power plants, which generate roughly 30 percent of the country’s electricity. Given that Russia dominates global enrichment capacity, and South Korea imports 30 percent of its nuclear fuel from Russia, proponents argue that South Korea should develop its own enrichment capabilities to avoid reliance on and potential coercion by Moscow.

Enceladus skrev: ↑torsdag 19 september 2024 21:59 Bloomberg visar samma film. Hur kommer det sig att Putins vänner leder den gröna omställningen? Ryssland har i alla fall kärnbränsle, och förstås korruption:

ABC News skrev:"China installed more solar power in one year than the US has installed in its entire history. It's just a really insane rate of change at the moment," said Neil Grant from Climate Analytics.

"China has been breaking records every year for wind and solar deployment.

"The pace of acceleration, particularly last year, did catch quite a lot of people by surprise and the signs are that China is on track to beat that again this year," Grant told the ABC.

Enceladus skrev: ↑måndag 23 september 2024 2:22

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑måndag 13 mars 2023 22:41 Det är mycket osannolikt att Sydkorea verkligen skulle vilja skaffa sig kärnvapen, oavsett vad enstaka politiker uttalar (som nu Seouls borgmästare). Nackdelarna med att slå in på den vägen är alltför stora: The Disastrous Downsides of South Korea Building Nuclear Weapons (38 North)

38 North is a project of The Henry L. Stimson Center.

South Korea’s Nuclear Latency Dilemma

War on the Rocks skrev:Despite Washington’s efforts to alleviate South Korea’s security concerns, culminating in the April 2023 Washington Declaration, calls for nuclear armament in South Korea have not subsided. Recent polls show public support for nuclear armament consistently hovering above 70 percent. However, unlike the general public, the majority of South Korean elites do not favor outright nuclear armament. While some prominent politicians have advocated for nuclear armament, including President Yoon Suk Yeol and Minister of National Defense Kim Yong-hyun, opposition to nuclear armament prevails among South Korean elites, whose opinions carry more weight particularly in defense and national security issues. An April 2024 poll by Victor Cha found that only 34 percent of South Korean elites favored it, while 66 percent were against it.

[...]

This situation creates a dilemma: South Korean politicians must explain the need for nuclear latency to galvanize support, but doing so risks exposing their ambitions for nuclear armament, complicating efforts to obtain Washington’s approval. They should carefully navigate this dilemma, as their current approach risks undermining both Washington’s trust in South Korea and democratic principles.

[...]

Advocates for nuclear latency present several rationales to persuade Washington to consent to South Korea’s development of enrichment and reprocessing or pyroprocessing technologies. One of the key arguments is the need for enrichment capability to ensure a stable fuel supply for South Korea’s 26 nuclear power plants, which generate roughly 30 percent of the country’s electricity. Given that Russia dominates global enrichment capacity, and South Korea imports 30 percent of its nuclear fuel from Russia, proponents argue that South Korea should develop its own enrichment capabilities to avoid reliance on and potential coercion by Moscow.

Så lätt slipper skribenten inte undan med att gå Putins ärenden.

War on the Rocks skrev:It is not hard to understand South Korea’s security concerns, given the persistent nuclear threats from North Korea and the possibility of a leadership change in Washington that could weaken the U.S. security commitment. It is natural for national security experts to explore various options to safeguard the nation. Ultimately, it is up to policymakers in both South Korea and the United States to decide whether South Korea’s development of nuclear latency is a desirable or at least acceptable course of action.

However, for such a decision to be made, the two allies ought to be able to discuss the issue openly and frankly. Building trust is essential. It is not sound policy to advocate for nuclear latency as a pathway to rapid nuclearization in front of a domestic audience, while framing it as purely for nuclear energy and naval propulsion to the United States and the international community. Moreover, enshrining the peaceful use of nuclear energy in domestic legislation with the intent to violate it if necessary contradicts democratic principles. While a nuclear option may seem attractive to Seoul, other important values — such as maintaining trust with its ally and upholding democratic norms — should not be overlooked.