Forum - Spårvägssällskapet.se

DN skrev:Beskedet kommer två dagar efter att det turkiska parlamentet ställt sig bakom Sveriges medlemskap och innebär att den utdragna processen för godkännandet är över. Efter omröstningen i kammaren hade president Erdogan 15 dagar på sig att skriva under lagen. För Finland tog det fyra dagar.

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”Med president Erdoğans underskrift är den turkiska beslutsprocessen färdig. Turkiet kan nu överlämna sitt instrument i Washington. Därefter återstår bara Ungerns ratificering innan Sverige kan bli medlem”, skriver han på X.

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Parlamentet befinner sig fortfarande på vinteruppehåll och väntas inte sammanträda förrän andra halvan av februari. Oppositionen vill få till en session innan dess för att rösta i frågan, men på torsdagen sade landets talman, Orbáns partikollega László Kövér, att det inte är bråttom att hantera ärendet.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑onsdag 24 januari 2024 9:29 Orbanien kan väl donera sina Gripen till Ukraina. Om de får nya Jas-39E istället. Fetknoppen är ju fullt mutbar.

Di skrev:Sverige hyr sedan 2006 ut 14 Gripen-flyg till det ungerska flygvapnet.

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”Genom att Ungern leasar Jas-planen så skulle den svenska regeringen kunna säga att vi behöver dem för att Ukraina ska få dem i kriget just nu. Det skulle vara en symbolisk näsbränna för Orbán”, fortsätter han.

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Så samtidigt som Ungerns regering skramlar och vill att Kristersson ska komma till Budapest för att förbättra ländernas relationer – och därefter möjligen säga ja till Sveriges Natoansökan – så har Sverige ett eget vapen att ta till, säger Anders Blomqvist.

War on the Rocks skrev:This winter, Ukraine’s military is visibly running on fumes, as recent reporting shows M109 Paladin artillery outside Bakhmut receiving only smoke shells for ammunition. When we were last there in November, shell hunger was widespread along the front, and the situation has only gotten worse. Following months of hard fighting, Ukraine’s offensive in 2023 proved a missed opportunity. The current situation is also not sustainable long term. It is clear Ukraine and the West need a new strategic vision. This means planning beyond the next six months or the next offensive operation. While the current state of the war has been described as a stalemate, spurring an animated debate over what that means, Russia holds material, industrial, and manpower advantages in 2024, along with the initiative. However, with tailored Western support, Ukraine could hold against Russian forces this year and rebuild the necessary advantage to conduct large-scale offensive operations in 2025, recreating another opportunity to deal Russia a battlefield defeat. Conversely, without major adjustments, or if Western support falters, the current path holds a high risk of exhaustion over time and Ukraine being forced to negotiate with Moscow from a position of weakness.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 12 oktober 2023 11:12 Generellt kan man ju, liksom som Nato, befara att ryssarna tänker försöka spela Kung Vinter igen:

Carnegie Politika skrev:Russian oil refineries rarely generate much news. Yet since the start of 2024, they have barely left the front pages: first, there was an accident at Lukoil’s Kstovo refinery; then successful Ukrainian attacks on refineries in Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea, and Tuapse on the Black Sea. These incidents garnered so much media attention because they pose major questions about how well Russia’s energy industry is coping with the pressures of wartime.

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Russia was given a reminder of the importance of refineries last summer, when the country was gripped by a fuel crisis that triggered gasoline shortages, and a blanket ban on gasoline exports. Although this was mostly caused by poor political decisionmaking, there were also some issues in the energy sector.

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If this is Kyiv’s plan, it’s similar to the tactics employed by Russia a year ago, when it targeted the Ukrainian power system, bombing transformers in the hope that repairs would take time. In the end, Ukraine managed to source enough spare parts, and come up with enough quick fixes that Russia’s campaign failed. Now, it’s Russia’s energy infrastructure that’s in the crosshairs—and Russia needs to find a coping strategy.

Enceladus skrev: ↑lördag 23 december 2023 2:11 Det blir allt svårare för Ryssland att exportera olja och gas. Nyligen har stora mängder rysk olja fastnat utanför Indien. Dessutom ökar rabatten på rysk olja:

Reuters skrev:More than a dozen tankers loaded with 10 million barrels of Russia's Sokol grade crude oil have been stranded off the coast of South Korea for weeks, so far unsold due to U.S. sanctions and payment issues, according to two traders and shipping data.

The volumes, equating to 1.3 million metric tons, represent more than a month's production of the Sakhalin-1 project, once a flagship venture of U.S. major Exxon Mobil, which exited Russia after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

[...]

Shipments of Sokol to the Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS) have been delayed by payment problems, forcing India's biggest refiner to draw from its inventories and buy more oil from the Middle East.

A source close to IOC said the company did not expect to receive any Sokol shipments soon due to a disagreement over which currency would be used to pay for it.

Enceladus skrev: ↑lördag 13 januari 2024 6:14 Tesla och Volvo är två av Kinas inkörsportar till Europa. Vad säger Xi om detta, eller för den delen Putinkramaren Musk? Har Egypten råd att förlora intäkterna?

Reuters skrev:Chinese officials have asked their Iranian counterparts to help rein in attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthis, or risk harming business relations with Beijing, four Iranian sources and a diplomat familiar with the matter said.

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"Basically, China says: 'If our interests are harmed in any way, it will impact our business with Tehran. So tell the Houthis to show restraint'," said one Iranian official briefed on the talks, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.

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A senior U.S. official said Washington had asked China to use its leverage with Iran to persuade it to restrain the Houthis, including in conversations Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had this month with senior Chinese Communist Party official Liu Jianchao.

[...]

The four Iranian sources said it was unclear whether Iran would take any action following the discussions with Beijing.

Enceladus skrev: ↑fredag 26 januari 2024 17:49 Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine’s Advantage in 2024[

Militäranalytikerna Michael Kofman, Rob Lee och Dara Massicot har formulerat en strategi för de närmaste åren. Den politiska viljan i väst avgör förstås utfallet.

War on the Rocks skrev:The West is advantaged in terms of technological innovation and financial resources, but much depends on political will. For example, although Europe missed its goal of 1 million shells this year, it has put $2.2 billion toward production and might well meet it by 2025. Western sluggishness is not the same as inaction, with some efforts gaining momentum. Yet despite the ability to out-innovate and out-produce Russia, it is Moscow that has leapt ahead in scaling production of drones and mobilizing its defense industrial base. Russian leadership is now visibly overconfident. They see the current trendline in this war as favoring them. Hence, the next year will prove important in demonstrating that even at the peak of its defense spending, and defense-industrial output, Russia is still unable to achieve its objectives in this war. Meanwhile, the costs will mount, and, ideally, it is Moscow that will face growing uncertainty in 2025.

Failure does not mean the war will resolve itself into a frozen conflict. Ukraine may begin losing the war this year, as Russian advantages multiply into 2025 and 2026. In 2024, the West faces a critical choice. Otherwise, as our colleague Jack Watling recently argued, the West will cede an irrecoverable advantage to Russia in this war. A defeat would see Moscow impose its will on Ukraine and walk away from the war believing that it had effectively exhausted and defeated the West. Despite the strategic cost to Russia, Ukraine would lose territory and would bear a higher burden for the war in population and economic losses. While Russia will pose an enduring military threat to European security in either scenario, a Russia that suffers a costly defeat is clearly preferable to an emboldened Moscow that is able to recover without having to worry about Ukraine’s armed forces.

This is a sobering reality, but this outcome is not inevitable. However, it will take hard political choices to bring this situation about both in Ukraine and in the West. Key decisions have to be made this year, the earlier the better, in order to put the war on a more positive trajectory. To succeed, Ukraine and the West must align expectations and articulate a clear vision for the next 18 months: what we are building toward, how, and what the theory of success is moving forward. Without a long-term strategy, it will be difficult to achieve unity of effort and manage scarce resources.

CNN skrev:“We cannot spend billions of dollars without a clear strategy articulated and I told the president in the meeting today again, as I’ve been saying repeatedly, ‘Sir, you have to articulate what the strategy is. What is the endgame?’” Johnson said Wednesday night in an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑lördag 13 januari 2024 13:31

Enceladus skrev: ↑lördag 13 januari 2024 6:14 Problemet är att monster inte sällan vänder sig mot sin skapare. Inte minst Putin borde veta bättre efter

Det vet man ingenting om. Dessutom är inte Putin Houthi-rebellernas "skapare". Men de siktar dåligt!

The Maritime Executive skrev:Earlier today it was the same vessel, the Marlin Luanda, that relayed information on the earlier attack. In the first instance, they reported an explosion in the air approximately 200 to 300 meters above the waterline of another tanker, the Panama-flagged Achilles. The explosion occurred about one nautical mile away from the tanker. The projectile did not make contact with either vessel, according to Vanguard. A French warship was reported to be patrolling in the area at the time.

The Achilles, a 109,000 dwt crude oil tanker, was also southbound in the Red Sea. The vessel's AIS signal shows that it was sailing from Primorsk, Russia, and displaying the message “No Link With Israel.” This tanker is reportedly under contract to an Indian shipper.

Enceladus skrev: ↑fredag 26 januari 2024 17:49

Enceladus skrev: ↑lördag 13 januari 2024 6:14 Tesla och Volvo är två av Kinas inkörsportar till Europa. Vad säger Xi om detta, eller för den delen Putinkramaren Musk? Har Egypten råd att förlora intäkterna?

Exclusive: China presses Iran to rein in Houthi attacks in Red Sea, sources say

Reuters skrev:Chinese officials have asked their Iranian counterparts to help rein in attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthis, or risk harming business relations with Beijing, four Iranian sources and a diplomat familiar with the matter said.

[...]

"Basically, China says: 'If our interests are harmed in any way, it will impact our business with Tehran. So tell the Houthis to show restraint'," said one Iranian official briefed on the talks, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.

[...]

A senior U.S. official said Washington had asked China to use its leverage with Iran to persuade it to restrain the Houthis, including in conversations Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had this month with senior Chinese Communist Party official Liu Jianchao.

[...]

The four Iranian sources said it was unclear whether Iran would take any action following the discussions with Beijing.

Kina tycks ha tröttnat på rebellerna i Jemen - inte konstigt med tanke på landets massiva export till Europa. Ändå är det USA som säkrar handeln i Röda havet.

China is working to present itself as a responsible alternative to the U.S. in the Middle East, just as many are questioning Washington’s long-term commitment to the region.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑fredag 26 januari 2024 20:15 Oerhört mycket står på spel: What Ukraine's Defeat Would Mean for the US, Europe and the World (RUSI)

EurAsia Group skrev:Tapering US political and material support will deepen a rift in the transatlantic alliance, which is the cornerstone of the international system. Europeans view current and likely future cuts in US assistance to Ukraine as an Afghanistan 2.0 policy lurch, but with much higher stakes for European security. Their concern is magnified by the risk that Trump will try to take the US out of NATO if he wins in November. Russia's upper hand will make the Kremlin feel like it successfully stared down the West on an existential issue, emboldening Putin to lean on unsupportive countries in the EU and NATO (such as Hungary and Slovakia) and driving further division.

A partitioned Ukraine will also undermine US credibility on the global stage. The United States made a major security commitment to help Ukraine protect itself and regain its land for “as long as it takes.” Domestic politics is leading the US to renege on this commitment, worsening the image of the US as an unreliable partner (please see Top Risk #1). Rogue and revisionist states will be emboldened accordingly (please see Top Risk #5). What's more, the war's trendline will make Ukraine a political loser for Biden during an election year, giving Trump a boost. A Trump win would accelerate this decline in US credibility.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑fredag 26 januari 2024 20:15 Ukraine: Do Liberal Democracies Have Staying Power? (RUSI)

East Asia Forum skrev:Alleviating suffering of the Ukrainian people and helping Ukraine re-emerge from the ashes of war is Seoul’s immediate priority in its burgeoning partnership with Kyiv. But in the long term, the emerging South Korea–Ukraine relationship in the realm of lithium also stands to benefit Europe more broadly by helping Europe break China’s grip on the production of renewable batteries.

South Korea has become a battery cathode export powerhouse. Access to lithium, a resource which Ukraine reportedly has in abundance, is absolutely critical for South Korea’s ambition to hold a 40 per cent share of global battery production by 2030.

The partnership between Seoul and Kyiv presents an opportunity for South Korea to secure greater amounts of lithium. This will help Seoul tap into the European battery market, which is set to grow with the rise of electric vehicles.

Enceladus skrev: ↑lördag 27 januari 2024 20:56

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑fredag 26 januari 2024 20:15 Ukraine: Do Liberal Democracies Have Staying Power? (RUSI)

South Korea–Ukraine partnership charged with reenergising Europe’s battery market

East Asia Forum skrev:Alleviating suffering of the Ukrainian people and helping Ukraine re-emerge from the ashes of war is Seoul’s immediate priority in its burgeoning partnership with Kyiv. But in the long term, the emerging South Korea–Ukraine relationship in the realm of lithium also stands to benefit Europe more broadly by helping Europe break China’s grip on the production of renewable batteries.

South Korea has become a battery cathode export powerhouse. Access to lithium, a resource which Ukraine reportedly has in abundance, is absolutely critical for South Korea’s ambition to hold a 40 per cent share of global battery production by 2030.

The partnership between Seoul and Kyiv presents an opportunity for South Korea to secure greater amounts of lithium. This will help Seoul tap into the European battery market, which is set to grow with the rise of electric vehicles.

Demokratier håller ihop. Notera att East Asia Forum är en australisk plattform.

Reuters skrev:India is seeking to distance itself from its largest arms supplier after Russia's ability to supply munitions and spares was hobbled by the war in Ukraine, but must step carefully to avoid pushing Moscow closer to China, Indian sources said.

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Russia supplied 65% of India's weapons purchases of more than $60 billion during the last two decades, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, but the Ukraine war hastened the impetus to diversify its weapons base.

"We are not likely to sign any major military deal with Russia," said Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russia expert at New Delhi think tank the Observer Research Foundation. "That would be a red line for Washington."

Financial Times skrev:Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at least twice last year, but while Russia has repeatedly emphasised its readiness to launch PS-2, Beijing has been conspicuously silent.

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Sergey Vakulenko, a former strategy director for Gazprom Neft and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia was likely to be seeking better financial terms from China than it had achieved in the PS-1 contract, signed in 2014 when global gas prices were much lower.

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“On one hand it’s a no-brainer for the Chinese, they should have this gas. On the other hand, there is Russia with stranded gas, lots of it, and which wants better terms,” he said “I guess it’s a bit of horse-trading at the moment.”

Enceladus skrev: ↑lördag 13 januari 2024 6:45 Meloni försöker rädda Orban från sin isolering. Han verkar nappa på betet. Dessutom går det inte så bra för Ungerns ekonomi. Orban behöver EU-pengarna:

Financial Times skrev:In a document drawn up by EU officials and seen by the Financial Times, Brussels has outlined a strategy to explicitly target Hungary’s economic weaknesses, imperil its currency and drive a collapse in investor confidence in a bid to hurt “jobs and growth” if Budapest refuses to lift its veto against the aid to Kyiv.

[...]

But in a sign of the rising pressure on Budapest to strike a compromise, Bóka said Budapest sent a new proposal to Brussels on Saturday, specifying it was now open to using the EU budget for the Ukraine package and even issuing common debt to finance it, if other caveats were added that gave Budapest the opportunity to change its mind at a later date.

The document, produced by an official in the Council of the EU, the Brussels body that represents member states, lays out Hungary’s economic vulnerabilities — including its “very high public deficit”, “very high inflation”, weak currency and the EU’s highest level of debt servicing payments as a proportion of gross domestic product.

BNN Bloomberg skrev:Hungary’s debt servicing payments doubled through the third quarter of last year, putting the nation on track to surge past Italy for the highest level in the European Union in 2023.

[...]

Hungary became one of the year’s first emerging-market sovereigns on Wednesday to sell dollar-bonds to meet rising financing needs. The eastern European nation has ramped up borrowing last year to cover missing EU funds, which had been suspended due to graft and rule-of-law concerns under Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s rule.

With EU funds in a limbo, Hungary last year raised forint issuance, paying a hefty premium on inflation-linked retail bonds, especially as consumer price-growth last year averaged just below 18%, according to central bank estimates.

Enceladus skrev: ↑söndag 28 januari 2024 23:20 Russia’s planned gas mega-pipeline to China hit by construction delay

Financial Times skrev:Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at least twice last year, but while Russia has repeatedly emphasised its readiness to launch PS-2, Beijing has been conspicuously silent.

[...]

Sergey Vakulenko, a former strategy director for Gazprom Neft and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia was likely to be seeking better financial terms from China than it had achieved in the PS-1 contract, signed in 2014 when global gas prices were much lower.

[...]

“On one hand it’s a no-brainer for the Chinese, they should have this gas. On the other hand, there is Russia with stranded gas, lots of it, and which wants better terms,” he said “I guess it’s a bit of horse-trading at the moment.”

Den så kallade "manchuriska presidenten" gör det igen, för att parafrasera före detta biträdande energiminister Vladimir Milov. Han skriver ännu för The Insider.

CNN skrev:The ex-president was also quick to exploit another crisis for political gain on Sunday. After tragedy struck in the Middle East when three US troops were killed in a drone attack in Jordan, Trump put all the blame on Biden and his perceived lack of strength, claiming that current wars would never have happened if he were in the Oval Office. “(We) would right now have Peace throughout the World. Instead, we are on the brink of World War 3,” Trump said in a statement.

His attacks represent gross simplifications of complex problems and an inflated sense of his own foreign policy, which was chiefly characterized by cozying up to dictators and excoriating US allies, while turning the United States – a source of global stability for decades – into a force for disruption.

But Trump’s attacks do stress the real political peril Biden faces at home as he wrestles with the possibility that an expanding Middle Eastern war could drag the US back into a regional conflict.

Enceladus skrev: ↑söndag 28 januari 2024 23:20

Enceladus skrev: ↑lördag 13 januari 2024 6:45 Meloni försöker rädda Orban från sin isolering. Han verkar nappa på betet. Dessutom går det inte så bra för Ungerns ekonomi. Orban behöver EU-pengarna:

Brussels threatens to hit Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid

Financial Times skrev:In a document drawn up by EU officials and seen by the Financial Times, Brussels has outlined a strategy to explicitly target Hungary’s economic weaknesses, imperil its currency and drive a collapse in investor confidence in a bid to hurt “jobs and growth” if Budapest refuses to lift its veto against the aid to Kyiv.

[...]

But in a sign of the rising pressure on Budapest to strike a compromise, Bóka said Budapest sent a new proposal to Brussels on Saturday, specifying it was now open to using the EU budget for the Ukraine package and even issuing common debt to finance it, if other caveats were added that gave Budapest the opportunity to change its mind at a later date.

The document, produced by an official in the Council of the EU, the Brussels body that represents member states, lays out Hungary’s economic vulnerabilities — including its “very high public deficit”, “very high inflation”, weak currency and the EU’s highest level of debt servicing payments as a proportion of gross domestic product.

Äntligen hotar EU med att ta i med hårdhandskarna mot det så kallade Orbanien. Som bekant går det inte så bra för landets ekonomi:

BNN Bloomberg skrev:Hungary’s debt servicing payments doubled through the third quarter of last year, putting the nation on track to surge past Italy for the highest level in the European Union in 2023.

[...]

Hungary became one of the year’s first emerging-market sovereigns on Wednesday to sell dollar-bonds to meet rising financing needs. The eastern European nation has ramped up borrowing last year to cover missing EU funds, which had been suspended due to graft and rule-of-law concerns under Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s rule.

With EU funds in a limbo, Hungary last year raised forint issuance, paying a hefty premium on inflation-linked retail bonds, especially as consumer price-growth last year averaged just below 18%, according to central bank estimates.

Ukrainska Pravda skrev:If we look back on the past year, we will see many positive changes, apart from corruption scandals and the suspicion notices served to senior officials. The adoption of the State Anti-Corruption Program, the resumption of e-declaration and political parties reporting, the strengthening of the SAPO, and the decision to increase the staff of the NABU and the HACC—all this surely indicates the real anti-corruption shifts in Ukraine. The very scandals stirring up society and all the suspicion notices served and sentences passed (there were 65 of them last year) indicate the engagement of civil society, investigative journalists, and law enforcement agencies, which are to fight corruption.

[...]

And if we consider progress in the Corruption Perceptions Index, we will see that those countries that have long been candidates for the EU have grown very slowly in the CPI. Whereas Ukraine and Moldova, which have shown their desire to join the European community, have demonstrated almost the greatest increase in recent years among all countries. Now Ukraine has caught up with Serbia in the Index and has already overtaken Bosnia and Turkey, while Moldova has caught up with Hungary, which has long been in the EU.

The Kyiv Independent skrev:According to the recently published index that includes 180 countries, Ukraine went from the 144th least corrupt country in 2013 to 104th last year. It has also improved its score from 25 points to 36 over this period, with the higher number signifying less corruption.

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In comparison, Russia's ranking went from the 127th least corrupt country in 2013 to 141st 10 years later, while its score dropped from 28 to 26. In 2022, Russia ranked 137th with a score of 28.

Enceladus skrev: ↑onsdag 18 oktober 2023 22:30 Det går som sagt inte att lita på Ryssland. Oljekartellen Opec hoppas på ökad efterfrågan. Peak oil uppnås dock via minskad efterfrågan snarare än brist!

Bloomberg skrev:State giant Saudi Aramco provided no rationale when it said Tuesday it would ditch efforts to reach capacity of 13 million barrels a day by 2027 and instead hold at the current 12 million.

[...]

Riyadh is already keeping about 25% of total output in the ground as a result of cutbacks made with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. With so much capacity lying dormant, it may question the need to build more.

The International Energy Agency predicts that oil demand will peak this decade amid a switch to renewable energy and electric vehicles, though the Saudis and their partners have steadfastly disputed that prospect.

Enceladus skrev: ↑torsdag 25 januari 2024 20:48 Erdogan har ratificerat Sveriges Natoansökan

DN skrev:Beskedet kommer två dagar efter att det turkiska parlamentet ställt sig bakom Sveriges medlemskap och innebär att den utdragna processen för godkännandet är över. Efter omröstningen i kammaren hade president Erdogan 15 dagar på sig att skriva under lagen. För Finland tog det fyra dagar.

[...]

”Med president Erdoğans underskrift är den turkiska beslutsprocessen färdig. Turkiet kan nu överlämna sitt instrument i Washington. Därefter återstår bara Ungerns ratificering innan Sverige kan bli medlem”, skriver han på X.

[...]

Parlamentet befinner sig fortfarande på vinteruppehåll och väntas inte sammanträda förrän andra halvan av februari. Oppositionen vill få till en session innan dess för att rösta i frågan, men på torsdagen sade landets talman, Orbáns partikollega László Kövér, att det inte är bråttom att hantera ärendet.

Ungern, med Viktor Orban i spetsen, har länge lovat att inte vara sist ut att godkänna Sverige, men nu blir det ändå så. Har ungrarna tagits lite på sängen?

Aftonbladet skrev:Ungerns utrikesminister Péter Szijjártó säger till tv-kanalen ATV att en ratificering av Sveriges Nato-ansökan kan vänta till parlamentets öppning i slutet av februari.

Den ungerska oppositionen skickade på måndagen in en begäran om en omedelbar extra parlamentssittning för att rösta om Sveriges anslutning, och föreslår till talmannen László Kövér att sittningen ska ske på måndag nästa vecka.

Utrikesminister Péter Szijjártó, som tillhör regeringspartiet Fidesz, håller dock inte med om att det är bråttom att rösta i frågan. Han säger till den ungerska tv-kanalen ATV att en omröstning kan vänta till parlamentets ordinarie session i slutet av februari.

– Vi är nu inte långt ifrån början av den ordinarie sessionen, i slutet av februari, därför ser jag ingen anledning till en extra parlamentssittning, säger Szijjártó och lägger till att ”vi kommer fortfarande att vara de sista”.

Enceladus skrev: ↑fredag 26 januari 2024 17:49 Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine’s Advantage in 2024

War on the Rocks skrev:This winter, Ukraine’s military is visibly running on fumes, as recent reporting shows M109 Paladin artillery outside Bakhmut receiving only smoke shells for ammunition. When we were last there in November, shell hunger was widespread along the front, and the situation has only gotten worse. Following months of hard fighting, Ukraine’s offensive in 2023 proved a missed opportunity. The current situation is also not sustainable long term. It is clear Ukraine and the West need a new strategic vision. This means planning beyond the next six months or the next offensive operation. While the current state of the war has been described as a stalemate, spurring an animated debate over what that means, Russia holds material, industrial, and manpower advantages in 2024, along with the initiative. However, with tailored Western support, Ukraine could hold against Russian forces this year and rebuild the necessary advantage to conduct large-scale offensive operations in 2025, recreating another opportunity to deal Russia a battlefield defeat. Conversely, without major adjustments, or if Western support falters, the current path holds a high risk of exhaustion over time and Ukraine being forced to negotiate with Moscow from a position of weakness.

Militäranalytikerna Michael Kofman, Rob Lee och Dara Massicot har formulerat en strategi för de närmaste åren. Den politiska viljan i väst avgör förstås utfallet.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑tisdag 30 januari 2024 17:39 Denne analytiker är mer pessimistisk beträffande möjligheten för Ukraina att helt återställa 2014 års gränser:
Kyiv’s Allies Need to Rethink Ukraine’s Victory Strategy (The Moscow Times)

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑tisdag 30 januari 2024 17:16 Men vad är det för frisyr han har lagt sig till med?

RBC-Ukraine skrev:Kuleba was asked whether he considers Orbán and Szijjártó to be pro-Russian politicians because of their statements.

"If this were to be confirmed, it would mean big trouble for both the EU and Hungary. But I think they are pro-Hungarian. If they were pro-Russian, then Peter would not have declared at the current meeting that he respects the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine," said the Ukrainian minister.

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 30 januari 2024 18:17

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑tisdag 30 januari 2024 17:39 Denne analytiker är mer pessimistisk beträffande möjligheten för Ukraina att helt återställa 2014 års gränser:
Kyiv’s Allies Need to Rethink Ukraine’s Victory Strategy (The Moscow Times)

Och denne analytiker är mer optimistisk: Ukraine Can Win a War of Attrition (Wilson Center)

Alla kan göra ett selektivt urval. Jämför ex.vis hur Samhällsnytt och Expressen skriver om Greta Thunberg, eller varför inte vägblockader av bönder resp. ivrare.

Enceladus skrev: ↑torsdag 02 februari 2023 23:38 Varför envisas skribenten med att referera till rysk propaganda som uppenbarligen inte har något med verkligheten att göra?

Enceladus skrev: ↑måndag 18 september 2023 13:26 Till ingens förvåning fortsätter skribentens ensidiga rapportering.

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 30 januari 2024 18:17 Kuleba explains why Szijjártó and Orbán are not pro-Russian politicians

RBC-Ukraine skrev:Kuleba was asked whether he considers Orbán and Szijjártó to be pro-Russian politicians because of their statements.

"If this were to be confirmed, it would mean big trouble for both the EU and Hungary. But I think they are pro-Hungarian. If they were pro-Russian, then Peter would not have declared at the current meeting that he respects the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine," said the Ukrainian minister.

Nu hörs andra tongångar. Gissningsvis har Ungern lovat att vika sig.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑söndag 28 januari 2024 16:36 Och så var det ju det där med Trump: Is Europe ready for another Donald Trump presidency? (DW)

Förra gången gick det ju inte så bra - och då hade Putin ännu inte startat krig i Europa:


Här ser vi Angela Merkel, som Trump betraktade som en gammal kommunist och knappt tålde (i synnerhet som han ogillar kvinnor på ledande poster), Japans förre premiärminster Shinzo Abe (mördad 2022) och republikanernas ständige hantlangare John Bolton.
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