Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

Ukrainian spies with deep ties to CIA wage shadow war against Russia

“We are seeing the birth of a set of intelligence services that are like Mossad in the 1970s,” said a former senior CIA official, referring to the Israeli spy service long accused of carrying out assassinations in other countries. Ukraine’s proficiency at such operations “has risks for Russia,” the official said, “but it carries broader risks as well.”

[...]

The initial phases of cooperation were tentative, officials said, given concerns on both sides that Ukraine’s services were still heavily penetrated by the FSB — the Russian agency that is the main successor to the KGB. To manage that security risk, the CIA worked with the SBU to create an entirely new directorate, officials said, one that would focus on so-called “active measures” operations against Russia and be insulated from other SBU departments.

The new unit was prosaically dubbed the “Fifth Directorate” to distinguish it from the four long-standing units of the SBU. A sixth directorate has since been added, officials said, to work with Britain’s MI6 spy agency.

[...]

Like other SBU plots, the operation involved unwitting accomplices, including the truck driver killed in the explosion. “We went through seven circles of hell keeping so many people in the dark,” Malyuk said in an interview about the operation, which he said hinged on the susceptibility of “ordinary Russian smugglers.”

[...]

Even while acknowledging responsibility for such actions, Ukrainian officials claim the moral high ground against Russia. The SBU and GUR have sought to avoid harm to innocent bystanders even in lethal operations, officials said, while Russia’s scorched-earth raids and indiscriminate strikes have killed or injured thousands of civilians.

[...]

That view appears to be in the minority. Others see the attacks as boosting morale among besieged Ukrainians and achieving a degree of vigilante accountability for alleged Russian war crimes that many Ukrainians are skeptical will ever lead to adequate sanctions from the United Nations and international courts.

Ryska krigsförbrytare kan inte räkna med att få leva i säkerhet!

Ett steg närmare Nato – men medlemskapet är inte avgjort

De 29 Natoländer som redan har godkänt Sverige som Natomedlem har också väntat otåligt på att få göra en försvarsplanering för norra Europa, där Sverige är en central pusselbit. Därför gick flera länder ihop inför Natotoppmötet i Vilnius och skapade ett slags julklappssäck till Turkiets president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, med flera löften om att exportera krigsmateriel som Turkiet behöver i utbyte mot ett godkännande av den nya Natomedlemmen Sverige. Den finaste klappen till Erdogan var amerikanska F-16-plan.

[...]

Det har riktats hård kritik mot Sverige från fler turkiska politiker än presidenten. Efter terrorattentatet i Ankara den 1 oktober kritiserade flera turkiska politiker att terrororganisationen PKK, som tagit på sig attentatet, kan demonstrera fritt i Sverige.

[...]

Den amerikanska regeringen har för länge sedan sagt ja till att sälja amerikanska F-16-plan till Turkiet, men kongressen har inte velat genomföra affären. På senare tid har flera politiker svängt och velat sälja till Turkiet. Nu saknar representanthuset talman, och inga beslut kan fattas. Men även när en talman är vald kan en affär möta motstånd i den amerikanska kongressen, i synnerhet som Turkiet och USA är på väg att hamna i olika läger i kriget i Mellanöstern. Om Turkiet tvivlar på flygplansaffären kan Turkiet fortfarande stoppa Sveriges Natoansökan.

Turkiets president har undertecknat protokollet om Sveriges Natoanslutning, men Sveriges Natointräde är långt ifrån avgjort. Vem kan lita på Erdogan?

Sedan har vi en som gott kunde hjälpa till, men som värderar relationerna med Ryssland och Orbanien högre:

Israeli strikes said to knock Damascus, Aleppo airports out of commission

Runways in both airports were damaged, causing all flights in and out of both airports to be canceled or diverted to an airport in coastal Latakia, SANA said. Official notices to international aviation authorities, known as NOTAMs, indicated that the runways would be unusable for at least two days.

[...]

Both airports were hit on October 12 and Aleppo was targeted a second time on October 14, according to Syria.

Following the second strike, a senior Foreign Ministry official on X confirmed a claim that Iran was trying to deploy arms in Syria to attack Israel and indicated Jerusalem was taking action to foil that effort.

Det brukar sägas att Israel är beroende av Rysslands goda minne eftersom landet kontrollerar det syriska luftrummet. Men det verkar inte vara så längre:

Russia says Israel's air strikes on Syria violate international law

Israel's airstrikes on Syria on Thursday violated its sovereignty and international law, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

According to the ministry, Israel's air force damaged the runways of Damascus and Aleppo international airports, forcing them to suspend operations.

Notera det ryska hyckleriet.

Avdiivka: Russian Losses from October 10th to October 20th

After conducting a thorough visual assessment of the available satellite imagery, our team successfully determined the extent of losses incurred by Russian military vehicles in the Avdiivka area in the period from October 10 to October 20. The results reveal that the number exceeds 109, indicating that within the span of a week and a half, Russia suffered the loss of approximately a brigade-sized force.

[...]

However, the situation remains far from stable or victorious. Russian forces persist in their extensive use of guided air-dropped bombs and artillery strikes, supported by the deployment of LMUR (Light Multipurpose Guided Rocket) launched from helicopters such as the Ka-52 and Mi-28. Several indicators suggest that Russians are actively working to adapt their tactics to maintain the operation. This is further confirmed by the deployment of additional resources from other parts of the frontline.

[...]

In conclusion, we want to emphasize several key points. This army-level operation, conducted through battalion or battalion-tactical groups, signifies not only the gravity of the operation but also shows an attempt to shift the strategic initiative from the Ukrainian side to the Russian side. The sustainability of these losses is in question, although this approach mirrors what we've observed in previous battles like Mariupol, Vuhledar, and Bakhmut. In these instances, the Russians committed significant human and material resources and were willing to accept substantial losses—what Western military standards might consider as unacceptable—to achieve their operational objectives. The operation originally aimed for a faster outcome and the advancement of Avdiivka through its flanks, but the resistance and skills exhibited by Ukrainian defenders have proven to be far more formidable than the Russians had anticipated in their plans.

Av allt att döma har Avdiivka blivit ännu en kyrkogård för ryska militärfordon.

[Enceladus]

Russia’s Withdrawal From the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Is an Own Goal

Russia is revoking its ratification of one of the most consequential international agreements for global security: the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that the move is being taken to reestablish strategic parity with the United States, which never ratified it, despite signing it back in 1996. In reality, the negative fallout may eclipse anything that Moscow stands to gain.

[...]

That, however, was the Trump administration. The Biden administration, on the contrary, supports the CTBT and has promised to facilitate its entry into force. In addition, Moscow’s understanding of nuclear technology appears to be at least a decade out of date: modern science enables new warheads to be developed without the need for full-scale testing. In 2021, Los Alamos National Laboratory staff member Charlie Nakhleh confirmed that no new nuclear testing would be required before putting the W93 into service. Either the Russian government’s rhetoric is trapped in the past, therefore, or it’s anticipating a Republican victory in 2024.

[...]

China, meanwhile, will only welcome other signatories’ withdrawal from the treaty. Beijing managed to conduct only forty-five nuclear tests prior to signing the CTBT: twenty-three times fewer than Washington. At the time, China’s technical infrastructure lagged behind that of the two nuclear superpowers, so it couldn’t build adequate facilities to simulate tests. Now China is actively expanding its nuclear arsenal and would jump at any opportunity to try out its latest developments.

[...]

Russia doesn’t stand to gain anything from de-ratifying the CTBT. It won’t increase its national security or induce the United States to make concessions on Ukraine, and will only tarnish Russia’s reputation even further in the eyes of its few remaining partners. Moscow had been seen as an important player in nuclear nonproliferation. Not so long ago, the Russian Foreign Ministry described the CTBT as “one of the major international legal instruments designed to put a reliable barrier against the qualitative improvement of nuclear weapons and their spread in the world.”

Ännu ett ryskt självmål. Ryssland har numer 12 784 bekräftade förluster i Ukraina, varav 2 426 stridsvagnar, 93 flygplan, 132 helikoptrar och 315 drönare.

Trump Plots to Pull Out of NATO — If He Doesn’t Get His Way

Trump, the sources say, has continued to express an openness to pulling the U.S. out of NATO altogether. However, Trump has suggested that this could be averted if the alliance — which Trump once famously called “obsolete” — gives in to his newest demands. This would include his desires for non-American members to further and steeply increase their defense spending, and for a reevaluation of the bedrock principle that an attack on one member is tantamount to an attack on all.

When he was in office, Trump would repeatedly scoff at this collective-defense clause of the North Atlantic Treaty, known as Article 5. One former senior administration official recalls to Rolling Stone a moment in the Oval Office in mid-2018 when the then-president started reading from a written list of smaller NATO countries, some of which he argued most Americans had never even heard of before.

Trump then vented that “starting World War III” over some of these countries’ sovereignty made absolutely no sense, and that he shouldn’t be forced to automatically commit American troops to any such crisis.

USA kan dock också göra självmål. Det blev inte tredje gången gillt när Emmer drog sig ur talmansracet. Dessutom kan ännu en advokat vittna mot Trump.

World oil, gas, coal demand to peak by 2030, IEA says

For example, the IEA now expects 50% of new U.S. car registrations will be electric in 2030, up from 12% in its outlook two years ago, largely as a result of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.

[...]

While China in the last decade accounted for almost two-thirds of the rise in global oil use, the momentum behind its economic growth is ebbing and the country is a "clean energy powerhouse," the report said, adding more than half of global electric vehicle sales in 2022 were in China.

[...]

An OPEC report earlier this month said calls to stop investments in new oil projects were "misguided" and "could lead to energy and economic chaos".

Dessbättre tycks innevarande decennium bli petrostaternas sista hurra. Detta gäller såväl kol som olja och gas. Ryssland blir en av de största förlorarna.

[Enceladus]

EU makes progress in shift away from Russian energy

The European Union is largely on track to break its dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2030, according to a European Commission report published on Oct. 24.

The EU has reduced coal imports from Russia by 90%, but more importantly, Russian gas imports have dropped by almost 75% from 2021 to 2023.

[...]

Almost 99% of gas storage facilities are full, providing breathing room against possible supply shocks, price hikes, or renewed attempts by Russia to weaponize their supply.

Bättre sent än aldrig. Tänk att det behövdes ett fullskaligt krig för att få Europa att bryta beroendet av smutsig fossil energi från Ryssland.

Maritime expert: Good sailors do not drop anchor without wanting to

An anchor likely belonging to the Hong Kong-flagged Newnew Polar Bear's was found by the Finnish authorities next to the Balticconnector gas pipeline on Tuesday. The Torgmoll Group-owned vessel is now the focus of investigations.

"Aktuaalne kaamera" called the company, which operates in Russia and China, to ask what happened to the ship's anchor.

"No comments, goodbye," the company said.

Både Kina och Ryssland verkar vara involverade i det misstänkta sabotaget mot en gasledning i Östersjön. Vidare har Torgmoll kopplingar till Rosatom:

Torgmoll/XinXin/NewNew were granted exclusive right by Rosatom for shipping through Arctic lanes and also had the military-linked Rosatom Sevmorput escort it. In most places NewNew is registered with Torgmoll RU emails/phone numbers

Det sägs ta minst fem månader att laga Balticconnector. De andra två kablarna som skadades i Östersjön har dock redan reparerats.

[Enceladus]

Det blev inte tredje gången gillt när Emmer drog sig ur talmansracet.

Mike Johnson is the new speaker of the House. Here's what happens next.

Johnson prevailed after a chaotic process that saw three other GOP nominees fail to unite the party and secure a majority. He won 220 to 209 in the House vote on Wednesday with unanimous support among Republicans, who enjoy a slim majority in the chamber.

[...]

Johnson's blueprint for the next several weeks did not mention taking up an aid package, but he said Wednesday that it's a "top priority."

"We'll be talking about the support and what's necessary to get it. We have to ensure that Vladimir Putin is not successful and I think all the House Republicans are united in that cause," he told reporters, despite opposition from many Republicans to more aid for Ukraine. "We'll be talking about how that's going to be done here in the coming days and it's a top priority."

Mike Johnson sägs vara en högerextrem kreationist som vill förbjuda abort och samkönade äktenskap, men han verkar i alla fall inte vara på Putins sida.

Why Russia and Hamas Are Growing Closer

Despite the killing of 16 Russian nationals, and even as Muscovites laid flowers at the Israeli embassy, the Kremlin declined to condemn Hamas’s actions, expressing only “grave concerns.” Some might see its overtures toward the group as an attempt to sow chaos. In fact, Moscow’s goal is to cement its status as a friend of the Global South.

[...]

A year later, Putin hosted Hamas’s then leader, Khaled Mashal, in Moscow, receiving praise from Mashal for his “courage and manliness.” Putin was thanked again by Hamas after the October 7 attacks, this time for his “position regarding the ongoing Zionist aggression against our people.”

While allegations that Russia transferred weapons to Hamas remain unproven, Russia has at the very least facilitated material support for the group: on the eve of the attacks, Hamas received millions of dollars through a Moscow-based crypto exchange.

Den kristna högern uppskattar definitivt inte Putins gullande med Hamas. Hade Putin gjort samma sak om han visste att Mike Johnson blir talman?

Chairman of Russia's oil major Lukoil dies suddenly aged 66

Vladimir Nekrasov, the chairman of Russia's second-largest oil producer Lukoil (LKOH.MM), has died suddenly at the age of 66 after suffering acute heart failure, the company said on Tuesday.

Lukoil said Nekrasov had worked for almost 50 years in the oil and gas sector. He had also worked as Lukoil's First Vice-President and an adviser to the company's president.

[...]

The previous head of Lukoil's board, Ravil Maganov, died in September 2022 after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, according to two sources familiar with the situation.

Several Russian businessmen, most with ties to the energy industry, have died suddenly in unclear circumstances in the months following the start of what Moscow calls its special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022.

Ryska oljetoppar tycks ha ännu svårare att överleva än talmän i USA:s representanthus...

Russia prison population plummets as convicts are sent to war

Russia has freed up to 100,000 prison inmates and sent them to fight in Ukraine, according to government statistics and rights advocates — a far greater number than was previously known.

[...]

The Russian prison population, estimated at roughly 420,000 before the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, plummeted to a historic low of about 266,000, according to Deputy Justice Minister Vsevolod Vukolov, who disclosed the figure during a panel discussion earlier this month.

Russian forces are now heavily reliant on prisoners plucked from colonies with the promise of pardons, a practice initiated by the late Wagner boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin, who began recruiting convicts to fight in Ukraine a year ago and amassed a 50,000-strong force.

Putins blodiga köttkvarn fortsätter att mala.

Vad som kan sägas utöver detta är att det förstås taktiskt är rent vansinne att använda ett värdefullt långräckviddigt precisionsvapen som ATACMS till att lägga ut klustermattor. ATACMS ska naturligtvis användas som Storm Shadow/SCALP EG, dvs. för angrepp mot hårdgjorda strukturer och fortifierade mål samt infrastrukturmål som broar, flygfält etc.

Struntprat. Ryssland förlorade minst 24 helikoptrar i Operation Dragonfly. Ryssland har numer 12 772 bekräftade förluster i Ukraina, varav 131 helikoptrar.

Nine Days After Wrecking 21 Russian Helicopters, Ukraine’s M39 Missiles Are Dealing The Same Damage To Russian Air-Defenses

Videos and photos from Luhansk depict the detached tail sections of two M39s—and also the aftermath of the purported strike: smoke curling from what Russian social-media users identified as an S-400 battery.

[...]

In less than a month starting in late August, the Ukrainian navy destroyed two of the S-400s in Crimea. Both strikes reportedly involved a land-attack version of the Ukrainian navy’s Neptune ground-launched anti-ship cruise missile.

The Neptunes surely are in short supply, which might explain why the Ukrainians waited until M39s arrived to target the S-400s in Luhansk. Regardless of the munition the Ukrainians deploy, the ultimate goal of the raids targeting long-range air-defense batteries is obvious.

Vilket undervapen! Klusterladdade ATACMS kan eliminera såväl attackhelikoptrar som luftvärnssystem. Och en viss skribent kallade detta "rent vansinne"...

[Enceladus]

Russia’s CBR hikes key rate to 15% amid stubborn inflation and weak ruble

This is the fourth consecutive key interest rate increase. At the September 15 policy meeting the CBR raised the key rate from 12% to 13%, following an emergency hike by 350 basis points in August as the ruble weakened.

[...]

The key rate hike of 200bp is much more aggressive than the 100bp hike that was widely expected by the market.

This came as the CBR was forced to catch up with higher expected inflation for the second meeting in a row. While in September the regulator increased the 2023 annual inflation guidance to 6-7%, after October’s meeting it increased the forecast again to 7-7.5%.

Rysslands centralbank chockhöjer räntan än en gång. Ryssland påstås förfalska sin ekonomiska statistik, men räntan kan inte döljas!

Ukraine Delivers Four-Point Cut as Economy Returns to Growth

The National Bank of Ukraine cut the benchmark rate by four percentage points to 16% on Thursday, deeper than the 18% forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Rates on deposit certificates remained steady. After collapsing almost 30% last year following Russia’s attack, Ukraine’s gross domestic product will climb 4.9% in 2023, up from a forecast of 2.9%, the bank said.

[...]

The resilience of Ukraine’s wartime economy and falling prices have prompted rate setters to begin easing controls and deliver cuts faster than initially planned. Growth will return this year after the fallout from the destruction of infrastructure, the throttling of Ukraine’s key grain exports and population displacement.

[...]

Currency restrictions had been in place for more than a year and a half, part of a regime that included ratcheting the benchmark rate up to 25% in an effort to ease the economic fallout. The hryvnia was initially pegged to around 29 to the dollar, and devalued to 36 in July last year.

Samtidigt chocksänks räntan i Ukraina. Vidare har Covert Cabal publicerat en uppdaterad video om hur många stridsvagnar som finns kvar i ryska förråd:



Svaret är 3 525 stridsvagnar. Den i särklass vanligaste typen är T-72.

Hungary and Serbia Feeding Putin’s “War Machine,” Bulgaria Says

Signaling his government has no plans to back off the levy on Russian gas that transits Bulgaria, Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov said the intent is to starve state-controlled exporter Gazprom PJSC of profits used to fund the war against Ukraine.

[...]

“There was sufficient time to look for alternatives, to see that these profits are feeding the war machine of Putin,” Denkov, 61, said in an interview on the sidelines of a European Union summit in Brussels on Friday. “We cannot wait any longer. Actually, this should have happened earlier.”

[...]

Denkov has also vowed to boost military support for Ukraine after several interim cabinets hesitated. A major producer of Soviet-style ammunition, Bulgaria is now looking to expand its production capacity, the prime minister said.

Bulgarien fortsätter att leverera, även om det är "inrikespolitiskt ohållbart". För ett år sedan var Gazprom en kassako. Nu behöver företaget statligt stöd.

Analysis: Global CO2 emissions could peak as soon as 2023, IEA data reveals

The IEA ascribes the changing outlook for global emissions – at least in part – to the global energy crisis. Last year’s report said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had “turbo-charged” the shift away from fossil fuels. Contrary to some commentary, the IEA repeats this message again:

[...]

Although the agency does not put precise figures on these “high points” for fossil fuels – presumably due to the uncertainty around the exact timing – Carbon Brief analysis of the IEA’s data shows coal, oil and gas reaching peaks in 2022, 2028 and 2029, respectively.

This would see global demand for all three fossil fuels combined peaking in 2025, as shown by the dark blue line in the figure below. This 2023 policy curve is compared against historical demand for fossil fuels (black), the pre-Paris baseline (grey) and earlier policy settings (shades of blue).

Putin är återigen årets klimathjälte!

[Enceladus]

Why the Russian Authorities Failed to Stop Pogroms in the Caucasus

When an angry mob in Russia’s mostly Muslim republic of Dagestan stormed the regional capital of Makhachkala’s airport, hunting for Jews arriving on a flight from Israel, the Russian authorities’ reaction—or lack of—was shocking. The National Guard, Russia’s internal military force—notorious for its harsh dispersal of opposition rallies—only showed up several hours after the rioters had overrun all areas of the airport, including the runway, and even then exercised uncharacteristic restraint.

The pogrom at Makhachkala airport was preceded by other anti-Semitic protests in Russia’s North Caucasus. Over the weekend, another crowd of people searched a hotel in the Dagestani city of Khasavyurt, again hunting for Jews, while several hundred kilometers away, a partially built Jewish center was set on fire in the city of Nalchik, capital of the Russian republic of Kabardino-Balkaria. None of these unlawful events elicited much reaction from the authorities. On the contrary, the inaction of the siloviki, or security forces, and the paralysis of the state apparatus were striking.

[...]

All of this is very instructive in terms of political forecasting. Both the Prigozhin mutiny and the pogroms in the North Caucasus show that no matter how brutal and impenetrable the Russian regime may seem, it is weak and indecisive as soon as it is confronted with any non-anti-Putin unrest. For regional authorities will look to Moscow, Moscow will expect “responsible behavior” from regional leaders, and Putin and the senior leadership will withdraw on the basis that they consider such routine matters beneath them.

Tatiana Stanovaya skriver om Rysslands antijudiska kvarleva. Landet har numer 12 902 bekräftade förluster, varav 2 439 stridsvagnar och 12 TOS-1A-pjäser.

Putin wants to know why Russia can only build 40 satellites a year

But what of Russia? The world's original space superpower intends to develop a 264-satellite constellation called "Sphere" that will provide Internet and Earth observation capabilities over Russia. But for plans by companies and countries around the world, this is a relatively small effort.

Now we have some sense of why this is. In an interview with a state-owned Russian-language news channel, the chief of Russian space operations, Yuri Borisov, explained that the country can only build a few dozen satellites a year. (This is about one-fiftieth of the total that a privately owned company, SpaceX, will launch this year.) Borisov said building a single satellite in Russia takes about 18 months, and because of this, it is not possible to develop a megaconstellation.

[...]

Where such a plan will fall within Russia's budgetary priorities is an unanswered question of course. Before Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the Russian space program had already been falling significantly behind its Western and Chinese competitors. As Russia has had to devote more resources to the war, Roscosmos' budget has continued to shrink.

Rysslands rymdprogram befinner sig i kris - till stor del på grund av kriget i Ukraina. Ändå lovar Putin guld och gröna skogar, t.ex. en egen rymdstation 2027.

What Russia’s new budget reveals about the war in Ukraine

But the fiscal outlook rests on shaky assumptions. The draft budget assumes that oil and gas revenues will increase by more than a quarter in 2024 to 11.5trn roubles, on the expectation that Brent crude will average $85 per barrel and Urals crude $70. If oil prices drop, revenues will come in below target. The budget also assumes that the rouble will average roughly 90 to the dollar in 2024. If the currency appreciates, however, earnings on oil and gas exports will fall in rouble terms, squeezing government revenues. GDP growth may also fall short of expectations. The finance ministry has pencilled in 2.3% for 2024, more than double the IMF’s forecast.

Even if the government can generate enough revenue to finance its war machine, the long-term economic outlook is bleak. A devalued rouble makes imports more expensive, driving up inflation and requiring the central bank to keep interest rates high, stifling investment. The Bank of Russia’s key interest rate is 15%. Although higher defence spending will boost growth in the short term, it will also divert resources from education, health care and other public services while crowding out private investment. Higher taxes will constrain growth further.

Hela den ryska ekonomin har dystra framtidsutsikter. Tiden är helt enkelt inte på Rysslands sida!

[Enceladus]

The commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces on how to win the war

Russia’s air force has taken huge losses and we have destroyed over 550 of its air-defence systems, but it maintains a significant advantage over us and continues to build new attack squadrons. That advantage has made it harder for us to advance. Russia’s air-defence systems increasingly prevent our planes from flying. Our defences do the same to Russia. So Russian drones have taken over a large part of the role of manned aviation in terms of reconnaissance and air strikes.

[...]

For now, we have managed to achieve parity with Russia through a smaller quantity of more accurate firepower. But this may not last. We need to build up our local GPS fields—using ground-based antennas rather than just satellites—to make our precision-guided shells more accurate in the face of Russian jamming. We need to make greater use of kamikaze drones to strike Russian artillery. And we need our partners to send us better artillery-reconnaissance equipment that can locate Russian guns.

[...]

Technology is the answer. We need radar-like sensors that use invisible pulses of light to detect mines in the ground and smoke-projection systems to conceal the activities of our de-mining units. We can use jet engines from decommissioned aircraft, water cannons or cluster munitions to breach mine barriers without digging into the ground. New types of tunnel excavators, such as a robot which uses plasma torches to bore tunnels, can also help.

Men VKS skulle ju vara intakt! Ryssland har numer 12 948 bekräftade förluster, varav 2 458 stridsvagnar. Ukrainas befälhavare Valerij Zaluzjnyj listar fem saker för att vända läget och vinna kriget: luftherravälde, bättre elektronisk krigföring, artilleribekämpning, minröjningsutrustning samt fler reserver.

Central Bank tips economy towards recession to stem inflation

Taking into account the central bank’s tighter policy, economist Anton Tabakh detailed one potentially negative scenario for Russia’s economy next year. If things don’t go to plan, inflation may remain high — fuelled by sanctions, high import costs, a weak ruble, budget expenditure and staff shortages. And at the same time, high interest rates will trigger a recession in parts of the Russian economy not seen as priorities for government spending — that is, outside of the military sector and infrastructure investment.

On average, that situation means overall headline numbers on growth, for instance, might look acceptable. But the economy is more and more resembling the old Soviet joke about averages. (The head doctor of a hospital asks a nurse to report on the average temperature of the patients. “36.6 degrees,” the nurse says. To which, the doctor replies: “How many times do I have to tell you? We don’t count those in the morgue.”)

In economic terms, the strong performance of Russia’s military sectors may simply end up concealing full-scale stagflation in the civilian parts of the economy — no growth and rapidly rising prices — Tabakh warned.

Försöker Putin återskapa Sovjetunionen med en bråkdel av dess befolkning, ekonomi och industrikapacitet, för att inte tala om allierade?

Uppgift: Ryska Wagner kan skicka vapen till Hizbollah

Den ryska paramilitära Wagnergruppen kan komma att skicka luftvärnssystem till den libanesiska terrororganisationen Hizbollah, uppger amerikanska källor till WSJ.

Det framkommer inte hur långt samtalen mellan Wagner och Hizbollah har kommit men enligt uppgifterna handlar det om vapensystemet SA-22 som Wagner står redo att skicka.

Ryssland sägs öka samarbetet med Iranlojala miliser, trots att Israels premiärminister har länge värnat sin vänskap med Putin:

Putins fördömelser svider mest för Netanyahu

Protester från många håll haglar över Israel dessa dagar, från både vänner och fiender. Men få fördömelser svider mer för Benjamin Netanyahus del än Vladimir Putins, vars vänskap premiärministern odlat under många år.

[...]

Men massakern i södra Israel den 7 oktober, som drabbade en hel del ryssar och barn till ryssar, satte punkt för samförståndet. Varken Kina eller Ryssland ser dagens kris som ännu en omgång israeliskt–palestinskt våld, utan som ett nytt kapitel i den stora globala bataljen mellan USA och dess motståndare, anförda av Kina, Ryssland och Iran.

Det var med knapp nöd att ryska diplomater tog avstånd från den mest upprivande händelsen i Israels historia. Moskva kritiserade ”våld mot civila”, det var allt, och redan samma dag började ryska medier kolportera ut sin ledares syn på situationen: en axel av ondska, USA–Ukraina–Israel, gick lös på tredje världens försvarslösa. Ett par dagar senare var en Hamasdelegation på plats i Moskva, ledd av Musa Abu Marzuk, en av islamiströrelsens toppnamn. Den togs emot med demonstrativ värme, en syn som många israeler tog hårt.

Är Bibi mer lojal mot Putin än sitt land? Notera att SA-22 är Natos rapporteringsnamn för det fordonsbaserade luftvärnssystemet Pantsir.

[Enceladus]

Satellite images of damaged Russian ship in Kerch emerge

Planet Labs' images dated 5 November reveal the site of the damage at the plant in Kerch and a Russian military vessel that also appears damaged.

[...]

The official added that the Askold is a 22800 Karakurt-type small missile ship capable of carrying up to 8 Kalibr missiles. Destroying such a vessel, Ryzhenko said, is essential for Ukraine's security.

Ryssland har numer 13 020 bekräftade förluster i Ukraina, varav 2 475 stridsvagnar. Vidare har Ryssland förlorat en handfull radarsystem av typen Zoopark!

U.S. announces $425 million in new military aid for Ukraine

The Biden administration announced a new $425 million military assistance package for Ukraine on Friday.

[...]

The package also includes $300 million worth of laser-guided munitions to counter drones, per the press release. This will come from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which allows the U.S. to purchase weapons directly from the defense industry rather than pulling from U.S. stocks.

USA har presenterat ett nytt stödpaket till Ukraina med laserstyrd ammunition som kan användas mot ryska drönare. Dessutom tio förlorade krigsfartyg!

Ukrainian kamikaze 1,000 km range drones put into mass production

Ukroboronprom, a state-owned concern, has launched mass production of new long-range strike drones. The technical and functional characteristics of domestic drones are higher than those of Iranian analogs such as Shahed, Herman Smetanin, Director General of the concern, says in an interview with Ekonomichna Pravda.

The head of the company confirmed that such a UAV, capable of flying about 1,000 kilometers, is already being mass-produced, in particular, in cooperation with foreign partners.

Ukraina tillverkar även egna drönare. Blir de bättre än Irans?

[Enceladus]

Ukraina har fått sudanesiska artillerigranater medan Sudan har fått ukrainska drönare. Ryssland är den stora förloraren.

Videos emerge of Ukrainian special forces likely hunting Wagnerites in Sudan

On 6 November, the Kyiv Post published two videos in which alleged Ukrainian special forces are believed to be hunting down Wagner Group mercenaries in Sudan, although the Ukrainian government has not officially recognised either the deployment of combat units in Sudan or the conduct of operations against Wagnerites in that country.

Ukraina jagar också ryska krigsförbrytare över hela världen.

Nu ska det ju snart vara parlamentsval i Polen, och det högerextrema regeringspartiet PiS är förstås berett att tillgripa alla medel för att vinna det. Det tyska kortet har ju visat sig pålitligt att spela ut även tidigare. Däremot skulle det förvåna mig om PiS, även efter vunnet val upprättar några varmare relationer med putinisten Robert Fico i Slovakien. Polackerna borde veta alltför mycket om det ryska barbariet för det.

Slovakia Won’t Block Private Arms Exports to Ukraine, Fico Says

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico softened a key election promise to halt military aid to Ukraine, saying his government won’t block supplies of weapons and ammunition from private manufacturers.

[...]

“If a company wants to produce and sell weapons abroad, we have nothing against it,” he told reporters after visiting the Defense Ministry headquarters in the capital Bratislava.

With an annual output of around 180,000 artillery shells, the NATO member state of 5.4 million people has became a key ammunition supplier to Ukraine, which has also obtained Slovak-made howitzers.

Den så kallade putinisten Robert Fico kommer inte att ställa sig i vägen för privata aktörers vapenleveranser till Ukraina. Han verkar snarare vara populist!

Dessutom tio förlorade krigsfartyg!

Två bilder och en video bekräftar att robotbåten Askold förstördes av tre robotar i förra veckans robotattack mot ett varv i den ockuperade staden Kertj.

Detta verkar vara första gången i historien som en ubåt elimineras av en kryssningsrobot! Kofman menar dock att torrdockans skador kan vara ännu värre:

Russian Warship Seen Badly Damaged By Ukrainian Cruise Missile

“In the area of ​​the shipyard named after Butoma in Kerch air defense worked, part of the fragments of downed missiles fell onto the territory of one of the dry docks,” occupation governor Sergey Akseonov wrote on Telegram Nov. 4. “There were no casualties. Stay calm and trust only official sources of information.”

[...]

In addition to causing severe damage to a Russian missile ship, the attack is also significant because the Kerch port is located less than five miles from sections of the Kerch Bridge. The Storm Shadow's BROACH tandem warhead could cause significant damage to parts of that bridge.

Vladimir Putin's prized $4 billion span linking the occupied peninsula and Russia has come under attack twice before.

Varför fungerade inte Rysslands luftförsvar? Kommer Ukraina att slå ut Kertjbron härnäst? Kan Ryssland underhålla sin flotta? Behövs spannmålsavtalet?

[Enceladus]

Både Kina och Ryssland verkar vara involverade i det misstänkta sabotaget mot en gasledning i Östersjön. Vidare har Torgmoll kopplingar till Rosatom:

Russian firm says Baltic telecoms cable was severed as Chinese ship passed over

In total, three Baltic telecoms cables and one pipeline were damaged in the space of less than nine hours.

Data from shipping intelligence firm MarineTraffic, reviewed by Reuters, showed that the NewNew Polar Bear passed over a Swedish-Estonian telecoms cable at 1513 GMT, then over the Russian cable at around 2020 GMT, the Balticconnector at 2220 GMT and a Finland-Estonia telecoms line at 2349 GMT.

Rostelecom said the damage to its cable was recorded at 2030 GMT.

Kan det hela ha varit en olyckshändelse?

What Does the Conflict in the Middle East Mean for Ukraine?

As a result, Ukraine has found itself between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, it’s important for Kyiv to emphasize its unity with the West and not to fall out with Israel, a valuable potential ally. On the other hand, overly enthusiastic support for the Israelis could damage Ukraine’s relations with countries in the Global South, for whose sympathies Kyiv has been actively vying with Moscow.

For most Ukrainians, the Arab world is seen as something distant and foreign, while there are many socio-cultural and business ties between Ukraine and Israel. In addition, Israel is broadly seen as a good example of a state that has successfully repelled attacks from aggressors for decades and at the same time is prosperous and technologically advanced: everything that Ukrainians would like their own country to be.

There was a lot of talk and intensive study of the “Israeli model” in Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, including the organization of its security forces and formation of a strong coalition of allies. The increasingly protracted nature of the hostilities in Ukraine has only increased interest in the Israeli example of how a country can adapt to war while thriving economically.

Ukraina har hamnat mellan hammaren och städet. Landet ser Israel som en förebild, men vill inte heller alienera delar av världen som inte stödjer Israel.

Oil market trembles as IEA suggests ‘demand destruction’

A significant decline in oil prices is currently being witnessed, with oil prices falling more than 4% due to weak Chinese export data and concerns about ‘demand destruction’. Oil futures have remained volatile, with daily price moves of more than 2% in either direction becoming increasingly common. The market seems more focused on demand destruction than escalating war tensions. Despite voluntary curbs from Russia and Saudi Arabia, recent data shows a four-month high in exports coming out of Russia, suggesting some discrepancies in the reported figures.

[...]

While geopolitical tensions can often lead to price spikes due to concerns about supply disruption, the recent market behaviour highlights a different picture. The stabilisation of supply, even amidst conflict in the Middle East, and the reports of higher than stated Russian oil exports indicate a shift from supply-side to demand-side anxieties. This shift is further substantiated by the significant increase in US crude oil stocks, suggesting that supply is outpacing demand.

[...]

Peak oil is no longer just a theoretical concept but a potential reality that the market might be approaching, if not already experiencing. The IEA has forecasted that demand for fossil fuels will peak before 2030, driven by the accelerating shift to clean energy. This is echoed by Bloomberg‘s analysis, suggesting that the structural decline in oil demand is not synonymous with a decline in the global economy, thanks to viable substitutes like renewable energy.

Som sagt, världen går från "peak oil production" till "peak oil demand". Samtidigt fortsätter Ryssland att fuska med sina kvoter, till Saudiarabiens förtret.

EU accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova should start, Brussels says

EU leaders recognise that the bloc’s geopolitical relevance hinges on the integration of its eastern flank, with Germany’s top diplomat Annalena Baerbock saying last week that the whole European continent would become more "vulnerable" if the EU does not enlarge.

[...]

The new assessment of candidate countries' progress on the path to EU membership confirms Ukraine has met four of the seven pre-conditions for opening negotiations, with some work still to be done on anti-corruption, de-oligarchisation, and the rights of minorities.

Moldova also needs to finalise judicial reforms and introduce further anti-graft measures.

Both countries have achieved at least 90% of the required reforms, a European Commission official said, suggesting Kyiv and Chişinău could tie the loose ends in its reforms in time for talks to start in the first half of 2024.

EU-kommissionen vill inleda formella medlemskapsförhandlingar med Ukraina och Moldavien. Georgien föreslås i sin tur erbjudas kandidatstatus.

Russia Turns to Longtime Arms Customers to Boost War Arsenal

Last April, a delegation of Russian officials visiting Cairo asked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi to give back more than a hundred engines from Russian helicopters that Moscow needed for Ukraine, three people with knowledge of the incident said. Sisi agreed and deliveries of about 150 engines are likely to start next month, say the people.

[...]

Those talks were part of a larger Russian push to seek help from its longtime arms customers, who for decades bought Russian aircraft, missiles and air-defense systems, making Moscow the world’s second-largest arms exporter. Throughout the year, Russia held talks with officials from Pakistan, Belarus and Brazil to try to acquire engines for the Russian attack and transport helicopters its forces lost to Ukrainian defenses early in the war, one of those people and another former Russian intelligence officer said.

“Russia spent decades building its arms trade,” said a person with knowledge of the buybacks. “Now they’re going back in secret to their customers trying to buy back what they sold them.”

In other cases Russia has sacrificed part of its prized arms export business to the war effort, rerouting arms meant for India and Armenia to Russia’s front line, the two said.

Putin tycks göra allt för att förstöra det sovjetiska arvet. Egypten är ett av de länder som får mest militärt stöd från USA. Ryssland kan inte kompensera!

[Enceladus]

Ja, det här var det mest svamliga jag läst. Vem den där Colby Badwar, som tydligen utnämnt sig själv till "försvarsanalytiker" (och som själv raljerar över "Armchair generals" - ett vanligt glåpord när man tror sig veta bäst) går inte att utröna (annat än på twitter), inte heller om det mytiska tochnyi-nätverket (annat än som twitterrykten). Trovärdigheten är väl ungefär som för den av småpojkskollektivet omhuldade "perun".

It’s about time: ATACMS and F-16 deliveries shift dynamics on the Ukrainian front

On October 17th, Russian Telegram channels lit up with reports that airbases in Berdyansk and Luhansk had been hit with ATACMS. Videos of the missiles being launched were subsequently released by the Ukrainians, and then pictures of missile body debris from the Russians conclusively proved that they had been fired. Open-source analysis of satellite imagery and media recorded from the ground suggests that a total of 21 Russian helicopters may have been damaged or destroyed.

The term “game changer” has been debated extensively prior to this moment, with more skeptical analysts downplaying the potential impact that ATACMS could have. I simply offer Merriam-Webster’s definition: “a newly introduced element or factor that changes an existing situation or activity in a significant way”. The loss of 21 helicopters in 1 day, which were previously thought to be safe behind the frontline, certainly fits this criterion. Even if Ukraine received no additional missiles, and the Ukrainian government has stated explicitly that they will in fact have an ongoing supply, the mere threat of future strikes forces Russia to take serious counter measures to mitigate potential loses.

Signaturen "Colby Badhwar" har börjat skriva för den grävande nyhetssajten The Insider, inte bara på Twitter. Ukrainas ATACMS beskrivs som ett undervapen.

Off the charts: Economist Igor Lipsits on how the ruble's downfall dispelled fantasies about a “brilliant financial policy”

Plan? What plan? Professor Lipsitz on how micromanagement is burying the Russian economy

Currently, micromanagement is being justified by war. We are told that the state has successfully overcome the consequences of sanctions and the shift to a wartime economy. However, the crucial detail is that this achievement owes its success not to the state, its bureaucracy, or the president but largely to the private sector in Russia. The state's role has been confined to a single action: injecting a massive sum of money into the economy, depleting the National Welfare Fund, significantly increasing the national debt, and capitalizing on high oil prices in 2022. This financial influx created the resources for a “budgetary boost” that allowed private businesses to navigate the initial months following the start of the war more smoothly, maintain well-stocked store shelves, and thereby rescue the country from the brink of a total shortage. Naturally, Vladimir Putin attributed this success to himself and his government.

In today's ideologically charged Russian environment, the slogan “Back to the USSR” has gained popularity, though it is marked by naivety. The belief behind it is that the Brezhnev era featured a modest yet stable economy guided by state planning, allowing people to “live normally.” However, the late Soviet economy was remarkably diverse. For instance, there was a relatively prosperous period for citizens in the 1970s, as a massive influx of oil and gas revenue flowed into the country, largely due to high oil prices and increased gas exports through pipelines to Europe. These revenues were so substantial that they could finance an arms race, support friendly regimes of “socialist orientation,” and still leave something for the population. Hence, the impression that “things were better under Brezhnev than under Khrushchev.” But as the '70s gave way to the '80s, the rosy picture of Brezhnev-era living standards evaporated. An era of stagnation, declining quality of life, and bare store shelves took its place. Consequently, people welcomed Gorbachev and his notions of “perestroika” and “accelerated economic growth.”

Hopes of implementing a planned economy in modern Russia are unrealistic, as it's simply unattainable. Some individuals, particularly those affiliated with Moscow State University, present fantastical scenarios involving the installation of supercomputers capable of comprehensive calculations, purportedly paving the way for a computerized planned economy that would usher in happiness and prosperity. However, they conveniently omit the fact that achieving this would necessitate the initial abolition of private property and the comprehensive re-nationalization of all private businesses, mirroring the actions of the Bolsheviks.

Vidare har ekonomen Igor Lipsits publicerat en tredje artikel på The Insider. Han avfärdar den verklighetsfrämmande idén om att återskapa Sovjetunionen.

Ryssland har numer 13 077 bekräftade förluster, varav 2 483 stridsvagnar, 94 flygplan, 132 helikoptrar, 14 strids- och 307 spaningsdrönare. Stalins arv tryter!

Rysslands krigsmaskin – tömmer landet på arbetskraft

“Arbetsmarknaden är hårt pressad. Huvudproblemet är inte mobiliseringen eller att människor flyr Ryssland – utan det är vapenindustrin”, säger en chef för ett ryskt gruvdriftsbolag till Financial Times.

[...]

Många fabriker har infört treskiftsarbete, vilket påminner om tiden i Sovjetunionen.

[...]

Den pressade arbetsmarknaden är inte unik för Ryssland bland andra industrialiserade länder, men den både åldrande och minskande befolkningen gör situationen särskilt svår.

Ryssland är inte Sovjetunionen, speciellt inte ur ett demografiskt perspektiv!

Russia adds more than 3tn roubles to its budget

The huge increases in spending have deepened Russia’s reliance on imports, driven inflation and helped weaken the rouble. They have also exposed disagreements between Russia’s finance ministry and central bank.

Central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina has said that the constant growth in budget spending is one of the main obstacles to fighting inflation.

[...]

“There is a terrible lack of co-ordination,” said Carnegie’s Prokopenko. “The right hand is holding back inflation, while the left hand is constantly increasing spending and thus fuelling inflation.”

Dessutom verkar ryska myndigheter ha svårt att samarbeta med varandra.

[Enceladus]

Denmark could block Russian oil tankers from reaching markets

Denmark will be given the task of inspecting and potentially blocking tankers of Russian oil sailing through its waters under new EU plans, as western powers scramble to enforce a price cap the Kremlin has learned to avoid.

According to three people with knowledge of talks in Brussels, Denmark would target tankers transiting the Danish straits without western insurance, under laws permitting states to check vessels they fear pose environmental threats.

All of Russia’s oil shipped through the Baltic Sea, roughly 60 per cent of its total seaborne oil exports, crosses the narrow Danish straits on its way to international markets.

Danmark kan inspektera och stoppa ryska oljetransporter som försöker passera ut ur Östersjön via danskt territorialvatten. Öresundstullen återkommer!

Russia's weaker hand undermines case for Power of Siberia 2 gas link to China

Russia is counting on a planned new pipeline to China as it seeks to make up for lost gas sales in Europe, but industry insiders see major risks around the project and question whether it will justify the huge costs.

[...]

Russia, however, expects the price of its pipeline gas for China to steadily decline over the next few years, according to a government document, and be much lower than prices for sales to Europe - which before the war in Ukraine accounted for 80% of Russian gas exports.

[...]

The document sees the price of Russian pipeline gas for Turkey and Europe falling to an average $501.60 per 1,000 cubic metres this year and to $481.70 in 2024 from $983.80 in 2022.

For China, it expects the price to average $297.30 in 2023 and $271.60 in 2024.

Kina tänker inte heller betala europeiska priser för rysk gas! Dessutom minskar gasanvändningen i Kina - till skillnad från Tyskland prioriteras elektrifiering:

Gas use continued to fall (dark blue), reflecting a drop in demand and a shift from gas to electricity and coal due to high prices.

[...]

Looking at the added annual generation from low-carbon energy installations in 2023, the total comes out to more than the average annual increase in China’s power demand, for the first time, marking a potential inflection point.

At this point, the growth of low-carbon electricity (columns in the chart below) would outweigh the overall growth of electricity demand (dots). As a result, the amount of electricity generated using fossil fuels – and the associated emissions – would decline.

US seeks to thwart Russia’s ambition to become a major LNG exporter

The US is directly targeting Russia’s ability to export liquefied natural gas for the first time, in a move that could cause disruptions in global energy markets that Washington has so far been keen to avoid.

[...]

But in early November, the US State Department announced sanctions on a new Russian development known as Arctic LNG 2 — in effect blocking countries in Europe and Asia from buying the project’s gas when it starts producing next year, according to officials, lawyers and analysts.

Francis Bond, sanctions specialist at law firm Macfarlanes, said that by targeting the project operator, the US was seeking to “toxify the project in its entirety” and would put “pressure on any non-US companies planning to purchase the flows from Arctic LNG 2”.

Vidare inför USA nya restriktiva åtgärder för att öka trycket på Rysslands energisektor.

U.S. Reenters the Nuclear Fuel Game: Centrus Energy delivers first batch of uranium that’s critical for advanced reactors

The 93 currently active nuclear-power reactors in the United States burn about 2,000 tonnes of uranium fuel each year. However, the type of uranium fuel those reactors use is not going to cut it for the advanced reactors expected to go on line in the coming years, as part of the effort to meet the country’s goal of 100 percent clean electricity by 2035. The specialized fuel these advanced reactors will need is currently made on a commercial scale only in Russia.

[...]

Less than one percent of natural uranium is U-235, the uranium isotope capable of sustaining a nuclear chain reaction. Today’s reactors use low-enriched uranium (LEU), which is almost 5 percent U-235. HALEU is enriched further to a concentration, or assay, of almost 20 percent U-235, which is still considered low-enriched compared with the 90-plus percent level that is required for weapons-grade uranium.

[...]

For now, the DOE intends to purchase about 25 tonnes of HALEU per year to kick-start the industry and give HALEU producers secure contracts from which they can expand production. “We’d like to avoid increasing our dependence on energy fuels from Russia,” Huff says. “So it’s critically important that we secure our supply of HALEU material, given the number of advanced reactors desiring to use it in the future for commercialization.”

Till råga på allt utmanas Rysslands dominans inom produktion av kärnbränsle.

[Enceladus]

Congressional leaders are aiming to pass Ukraine and Israel supplemental aid before Christmas

Congressional leaders are hoping to muster a supplemental package to aid the war efforts in Ukraine and Israel, as well as make improvements to the U.S. immigration system, by the end of the year, according to multiple people involved in discussions.

The ambitious timeline would mean striking a deal that satisfies the funding requested by the Department of Defense to aid conflict zones, while simultaneously crafting an immigration package that not only provides resources for border security but includes a suite of policy changes to appease conservatives without alienating progressive Democrats.

[...]

“My best guess is Israel is passed as stand-alone, and Ukraine done in tandem with progress on border,” said one GOP lawmaker who supports the contours of the administration’s aid request. “On the positive side, I believe the speaker wants results on Israel, Ukraine and border.”

Amerikanska politiker hoppas kunna komma överens om ett stödpaket till Ukraina och Israel före årsskiftet. Representanthusets talman uppges vara positiv.

Germany set to double Ukraine military aid

German chancellor Olaf Scholz's governing coalition has agreed in principle to double the country's military aid for Ukraine next year to 8 billion euros ($8.5 billion), a political source in Berlin said on Sunday.

If approved by parliament, where Scholz's parties hold a majority, the boost would lift Germany's defence spending to 2.1% of its gross domestic product target, beyond the 2% pledged by all North Atlantic Treaty Organization members, the source added.

[...]

"With the move we will underscore our promise to Ukraine with the necessary funds. The fact that we will also be able to fulfil our NATO obligation is a great success of the ... coalition," he was reported as saying.

Tyskland trappar upp det militära stödet till Ukraina - liksom Nederländerna. Ryssland har 13 152 bekräftade förluster, varav 13 TOS-1A och 21 Pantsir-S1.

Ukrainian drone production capacity may exceed Russia’s, says Air Force spox

Ukraine’s drone production capacity could exceed Russia’s thanks to the support of its Western partners, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said on national television on Nov. 19.

[...]

The Russians may increasingly use drones in future attacks on Ukraine as their missile stockpile has decreased compared to last year, Ihnat said.

Ukraine’s anti-drone defenses have also improved, Ihnat added. Gepard anti-aircraft systems and mobile air defense fire groups are increasingly effective in intercepting Shahed drones.

Ukraina hoppas vinna drönarkriget. Slutligen har Perun en video om den pågående moderniseringen av kärnvapen, inklusive Rysslands styrkor och svagheter:

[Odd]

Ryssarna har en stor fördel, nämligen att de på ett helt annat sätt än Ukraina, kan tvinga en stor del av sin befolkning till fronten och genom en omänskligt grym taktik använda dem som kanonmat, våg efter våg, tills Ukrainas logistik inte klarar av att leverera fram ammunition i den takt som behövs. Vi har ju redan sett dessa tendenser där Ryssarna skickar odugligt material mot Ukraina bara för att få dom att slösa bort dyrbar ammunition.

[Enceladus]

Ryssarna har en stor fördel, nämligen att de på ett helt annat sätt än Ukraina, kan tvinga en stor del av sin befolkning till fronten och genom en omänskligt grym taktik använda dem som kanonmat, våg efter våg, tills Ukrainas logistik inte klarar av att leverera fram ammunition i den takt som behövs. Vi har ju redan sett dessa tendenser där Ryssarna skickar odugligt material mot Ukraina bara för att få dom att slösa bort dyrbar ammunition.

Ja, kanske det. Eller inte: In Ukraine, Russia's Military Has A Manpower Problem. Now It's Becoming A Political Problem.

"It's clear from their actions that the Kremlin would prefer to offer large sums of money for volunteers, raid the Russian prison system, restaurants, or other gatherings for manpower, rather than [do] another round of mobilization," said Dara Massicot, who researches the Russian military at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The bloodletting for both Russia and Ukraine is unrelenting. Russian casualties -- killed and wounded -- since February 2022 are estimated at around 302,000, according to British officials. Ukrainian casualties have been pegged at around 180,000 as of this summer, according to unnamed U.S. officials.

So how do you get more Russian men into the system without another mobilization?

"I'm pretty sure [Putin] knows the situation quite well, and it's alarming when it comes to manpower in Ukraine," said Pentti Forsstrom, a retired Finnish Army lieutenant colonel and professor at the National Defense University in Helsinki.

Putin tömmer landets fängelser för att köttkvarnen ska fortsätta mala. Men fängelsepopulationen är en ändlig resurs - precis som gamla sovjetiska vapen.

Här är en jämförelse av antalet stupade ockupanter i invasionerna av Afghanistan respektive Ukraina från den ryska staden Kamysjin:

Update: Kamyshin, Russia, population 107 000.
Afghanistan — 18 soldiers killed in 9 years
Ukraine — 90 soldiers killed (19 November 2023)
Compared to July 2023, one plate has been added and the bases for the next plate are ready...

Som sagt, Putins blodiga köttkvarn fortsätter att mala.

[Odd]

Jag menar att när de "lagliga" vägarna är tömda för Putin och hans anhang, så kommer dom att tvångsrekrytera alla dom kan. De som sitter säkert idag riskerar nog att skickas, tillsammans med de som kommit tillbaka någorlunda helskinnade.

[Enceladus]

Will North Korea’s new spy satellite make the region safer?

The two bitterly opposed parts of the Korean peninsula have something in common: stratospheric ambition. After trying and failing twice to put its first military spy satellite into orbit earlier this year, North Korea claims to have succeeded on November 21st. It beat South Korea, which planned to put its first spy satellite in orbit on November 30th, to the punch. This emerging space race has big implications for regional security.

[...]

Both Koreas have been developing satellites for decades. Yet they have followed different paths, explains Daniel Pinkston of Troy University in Alabama. Fearing an arms race on the peninsula, America convinced South Korea in 1979 to accept limits on its rocketry technology, which can be used for both satellites and ballistic missiles. South Korea instead focused on satellite and imaging technology. As a result its first spy satellite will probably be more sophisticated than its Northern counterpart, being better able to see through cloud cover and at night. South Korea’s launch capability is relatively rudimentary, even though America began easing the restrictions in 2001 and scrapped them in 2021. SpaceX, an American rocketry firm, will put the South’s satellite into orbit.

North Korea’s satellite programme was in essence a spin-off from its ballistic-missiles one. It has put two satellites into orbit, but there is scant evidence that they work. A promise of help from Vladimir Putin, made when Mr Kim visited the Russian president in September, may come in handy. South Korea’s government says Russia is giving the North technical assistance on satellites in return for arms bound for Ukraine. If that is right, the North Koreans may have missed their original launch deadline, set for October, because they were making Russian-inspired improvements to their satellite and its launch vehicle.

Nordkoreas tredje uppskjutning av en militär övervakningssatellit i rymden beskrivs som lyckad. Har landet fått hjälp av Ryssland? Hur reagerar Sydkorea?

U.S. Warns Iran Is Weighing Sending Short-Range Missiles to Russia

But U.S. concern that the military cooperation between the nations may further expand grew when Iran showed its Ababil and Fateh-110 missiles to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu when he visited Tehran in September.

[...]

Iranian officials have said that Tehran plans to buy Su-35 fighters from Russia, but those planes have yet to be delivered. Iran also wants to buy other military hardware, including radars and attack helicopters.

[...]

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that Wagner Group, the Russian paramilitary organization, was planning to provide the SA-22 air defense system to Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia backed by Iran, according to U.S. officials familiar with intelligence.

Enligt nya rykten kan Iran också skicka ballistiska missiler till Ryssland. I så fall förväntar Iran sig nog att få något i utbyte. Det blev inte så mycket tidigare.

Oil Prices Fall After OPEC Meeting Gets Delayed. Disagreements Are Bad News for Bulls.

OPEC+ has reduced its production by about 2 million barrels a day to keep oil prices high, with some members reducing production by an additional 1.7 million barrels, and Saudi Arabia and Russia cutting 1.3 million barrels combined on top of that. All told, the cuts amount to about 5 million barrels a day, a significant portion of the 101 million barrels of oil that the world consumes. At least 3.6 million barrels of that is expected to stay off the market in 2024, though the Saudi and Russian cuts have not yet been extended.

Growth in oil production outside of OPEC—including in the U.S., Venezuela, and Brazil—has made up for much of those cuts. Relatively weak demand in China and elsewhere has further hurt oil prices.

Analysts have been betting that OPEC would respond to recent price weakness by extending the current cuts, or possibly even pushing for more cuts from OPEC members. Whatever strategy the countries are seeking appears to have become contentious.

Oljekartellen Opec förlorar marknadsandelar. Samtidigt går det inte så bra för Saudiarabiens ekonomi. Har landet råd att fortsätta på den inslagna vägen?

Giant batteries drain economics of gas power plants

Giant batteries that ensure stable power supply by offsetting intermittent renewable supplies are becoming cheap enough to make developers abandon scores of projects for gas-fired generation world-wide.

The long-term economics of gas-fired plants, used in Europe and some parts of the United States primarily to compensate for the intermittent nature of wind and solar power, are changing quickly, according to Reuters' interviews with more than a dozen power plant developers, project finance bankers, analysts and consultants.

[...]

In the first half of the year, 68 gas power plant projects were put on hold or cancelled globally, according to data provided exclusively to Reuters by U.S.-based non-profit Global Energy Monitor.

Energiomställningen går snabbare än väntat. Länder som Ryssland behöver hitta nya intäktskällor. Rysslands framtid ser riktigt mörk ut...

[Enceladus]

Ukrainian drone production capacity may exceed Russia’s, says Air Force spox

Ukraine’s drone production capacity could exceed Russia’s thanks to the support of its Western partners, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said on national television on Nov. 19.

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The Russians may increasingly use drones in future attacks on Ukraine as their missile stockpile has decreased compared to last year, Ihnat said.

Ukraine’s anti-drone defenses have also improved, Ihnat added. Gepard anti-aircraft systems and mobile air defense fire groups are increasingly effective in intercepting Shahed drones.

Ukraina hoppas vinna drönarkriget.

Russia launches record 75 attack drones at Ukraine, all but one downed

The Russians launched a record number of attack UAVs at Ukraine on the night of 24-25 November. There were 75 Shahed kamikaze drones, 74 of which were shot down.

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Air defence systems were responding to the attack in at least six oblasts of Ukraine: Kyiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad.

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Anti-aircraft missile units, tactical aircraft, mobile fire groups and electronic warfare units were involved in repelling the attack.

Som väntat använder Ryssland främst drönare när missilerna tryter. Som utlovat skjuter luftvärnet ner lejonparten av drönarna. Men var är Ukrainas egna?

Armenian PM says Russia has not delivered weapons Yerevan has paid for -TASS

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Friday that Russia had not yet delivered weapons his country had paid for and that talks were underway to try to find a solution, Russian state news agency TASS reported.

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"Consultations are underway on mechanisms for solving these problems," he said, adding that one option might be to reduce Armenia's outstanding debts to Russia in exchange for the payment already made, given that Moscow also needed weapons.

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Pashinyan has annoyed Moscow in recent months by calling into question Armenia's alliance with Russia and seeking to deepen ties to Western countries, while also purchasing arms from new suppliers including France and India.

Ryssland har inte levererat utlovade vapen till Armenien - de används istället i Ukraina. Därför föreslår Pasjinjan att Armeniens skuld till Ryssland skrivs av.

Russian arms makers kept to low profile at Dubai Airshow

Russian arms makers appear to have been kept to a low profile at this week's Dubai Airshow, underscoring how the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has sought to balance its ties with the West and Moscow.

Unlike past shows, Russian participation has been limited to the very end of the outdoor area where state-arms makers are exhibiting inside their own pavilion rather than in the main hall.

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Russian state arms makers participated in February at a major arms fare in Abu Dhabi, the UAE capital, where they were similarly kept separated from the main exhibition area.

Ryska tillverkare hade inte en enda försäljning under flygmässan i Dubai. Däremot har Ryssland 13 182 bekräftade förluster i Ukraina, varav 132 helikoptrar.

[Enceladus]

Jag menar att när de "lagliga" vägarna är tömda för Putin och hans anhang, så kommer dom att tvångsrekrytera alla dom kan. De som sitter säkert idag riskerar nog att skickas, tillsammans med de som kommit tillbaka någorlunda helskinnade.

In past six weeks, Russia suffered biggest losses since war began – UK intel

It is noted that throughout November 2023, Russian casualties, as reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, are running at a daily average of 931 per day.

Previously, the deadliest reported month for Russia was March 2023 with an average of 776 losses per day, at the height of Russia’s assault on Bakhmut, the report says.

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As reported by Ukrinform, the British intelligence in its previous update said that the unusual Russian air transport movements through November suggest that Russia had likely moved S-400 strategic air defense systems from the enclave of Kaliningrad to backfill recent losses on the Ukraine front.

I november har 931 ryssar dagligen stupat, dödligaste månaden hittills. Vidare har Ryssland 13 236 bekräftade förluster i Ukraina, varav 2 504 stridsvagnar.

Explosions at russian Plants in Chelyabinsk and Smolensk: Are They Enough to Stop Production

November 26 evening, various media reported explosions on the territory of russian industrial enterprises Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant–Uraltrac and Smolensk Aviation Plant. Although they seem to happen synchronically, these events are hardly related.

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To elaborate further, the Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant–Uraltrac, is a huge enterprise with a perimeter of 2.5 by 0.7 km, located 1,700 km from Ukraine. Therefore, many more explosions need to occur to completely disable it, and the key point is that they must be methodical.

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As we can see, in the case of the Smolensk Aviation Plant, the strikes are systematic. The minimum expected outcome is a hindered production at the factory. Moreover, the facility is much more compact and located much closer to Ukraine, only 300 km away.

Dessutom ger sig Ukraina på Rysslands försvarsindustri. Till råga på allt har ett kraftigt oväder dragit in över ockuperade delar av Ukraina!

Kazakhstan gets rid of MiG-29, it negotiates Dassault Rafale

Kazakhstan is the second Russian ally, about which “evil tongues” say that the French fighter would be a very good alternative. The first is Uzbekistan, and as BulgarianMilitary.com wrote, according to various sources, the Uzbeks are interested in acquiring 24 Rafale fighters.

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Despite the potential for Uzbekistan to secure 24 French fighter jets, Kazakhstan’s plans remain uncertain. Let’s remember, however, that only recently Astana made an unprecedented move – they listed 120 of the country’s combat aircraft, including the Su-24, MiG-27, MiG-29, and even the MiG-31, available for public purchase.

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It’s more plausible that Kazakhstan is not looking to replace its Russian Su-30SM with a purchase of the French Rafale. Instead, they might be considering the replacement of their decommissioned and auctioned MiG-29 and MiG-31.

Samtidigt passar Frankrike på att ta över Rysslands tidigare kunder. Därtill talas det återigen om att Frankrike kan skicka sex Mirage-plan till Ukraina!

[Enceladus]

US in talks with Greece on buying shells for Ukraine

The US is reportedly discussing with Greece the sale of a total of 75,000 artillery shells from the Hellenic Armed Forces’ stockpile as part of the effort to replenish Ukrainian ammunition in the war against Russia.

The Americans will buy a total of 50,000 105 mm caliber, 20,000 155 mm caliber and 5,000 larger 203 mm caliber projectiles and negotiations are in the final phase. The total price negotiated by the Greek side is $47 million.

USA sägs vara i samtal med Grekland om att köpa artillerigranater till Ukraina. Priset uppges landa på drygt 600 dollar per granat. Hur reagerar Erdogan?

Free Willy: Russian Navy Trained Dolphins Hit By Storm

A massive storm battered Crimea on the November 27. Preliminary analysis of the damage done to Russian defenses reveals that the dolphin pens in Sevastopol harbor are gone as a result. They may have been sunk or washed away. It is plausible that some or all of the trained dolphins have been freed.

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It should be remembered that if the dolphins are indeed free they have been raised in captivity. It can be expected that they were reliant on their human trainers for food and may be unable to fend for themselves. Escape may thus be a death warrant.

It is possible that the Russian Navy moved the pens in advance of the storm, but there is currently no evidence of this. I am awaiting clearer imagery for further analysis.

Som sagt, ett kraftigt oväder har drabbat ockuperade delar av Ukraina. Delfiner kan vara ännu ett oskyldigt offer för Putins imperialistiska ambitioner.

Russian major general killed in Ukraine after triggering mine

Russia has confirmed the death of Major General Vladimir Zavadsky in the war in Ukraine. He was blown up by a mine.

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According to Vazhnye Istorii, this is the 12th announcement of the death of a senior Russian Armed Forces officer in Ukraine. Only seven of these, including Zavadsky, have had their deaths confirmed by Russia.

The highest-ranking officer of the Russian Armed Forces to have been killed in the war in Ukraine is Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov, the deputy commander of Russia’s Southern Military District. He was killed last summer in Berdiansk, presumably during a strike on the command post of the 58th Army.

Ryssland har förlorat ytterligare en general - åtminstone den sjunde - i Ukraina.

Ukrainian spy chief's wife poisoned – Ukrainska Pravda source

Marianna Budanova, the wife of Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence (DIU), has been poisoned with heavy metals. She survived and has undergone the first stage of treatment, Ukrainska Pravda's sources in the security services have reported.

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The sources said Budanov's wife was "most likely poisoned through food". "She is doing better now as she has undergone the first stage of treatment," the sources said.

"Since Budanov's wife is quite petite and lightweight, she developed symptoms quickly. And several other employees were confirmed to have been poisoned: 'They are just bigger-built, so they didn't notice any signs of it; they are now receiving treatment'," the sources said.

Marianna Budanova, hustru till Budanov, har förgiftats av tungmetaller. Kommer Budanov att hämnas, och i så fall på vem? Putins kumpaner lever farligt!

Slutligen berättar Anton Gerashchenko att Kina fortsätter att utpressa Ryssland på ekonomiska eftergifter:

China has refused to invest in Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline and demanded more gas discounts, The South China Morning Post writes.

China is unwilling to invest in the new pipeline, offering Russia to pay the multibillion-dollar construction bill in full and demanding discounts on Russian gas, The South China Morning Post reported, citing a source familiar with the situation in Moscow.

Next year, the discount for China will increase to 46%, according to the government's drafts: gas from the Power of Siberia will cost $271.6 per thousand cubic meters, and for Turkey and Europe - $481.7. But that's not enough for China. It "can demand deep discounts," the source says. "In terms of construction, [Beijing] wants to make sure that they have no risks and no costs. Russia is the side that foots the entire bill," says the source.

Whether Gazprom will find money for the new megaproject remains unclear. After cutting off gas to European countries, the company made a trillion-ruble net loss for the year and faced cash gaps that it had to spend two-thirds of its cash reserves to cover. Of the 2 trillion ruble "cash pile" that Gazprom had before the war, about 700 billion (~$5.56 billion) remained by July 2023.

Even so, Putin hardly has a choice. The Russian president is "under enormous pressure" because if the pipe is not built, Russia will have nowhere to dump "a huge volume" of gas, says the SCMP source. After losing the European market, where more than 150 billion cubic meters of gas a year went at its peak before the war, Gazprom has been forced to cut production by a quarter – a record in its history.

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