Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

Hands that pushed Hamas attack forward are in Moscow

Don’t imagine this is just an unprovoked, brutal attack by a bunch of terrorists from Gaza. It is much more than that. The hands that pushed these killers forward are in Moscow. US President Joe Biden and European leaders have long feared an escalation of the Ukraine war and that is what they’ve now got. Unwilling to take the fight directly to NATO, instead, Putin has been fomenting conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia and Kosovo, in West Africa and now in Israel.

[...]

Hamas leaders, including terrorist boss Ismail Haniyah, have made a number of visits to Moscow since the Ukraine war began, meeting with senior government officials including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. A delegation from their Gaza terrorist bedfellows, Islamic Jihad, led by its chief, Ziyad al-Nakhalah, also visited Moscow in March. Likewise, leaders of another Iranian proxy, Lebanese Hezbollah, have been welcome guests in Moscow. Hezbollah terrorists fought side by side with Russian troops in Syria and have since been involved in helping Moscow evade sanctions and, according to the US Treasury Department, may have received weapons in return.

[...]

Whether or not that happens, and I am not confident it will, Israel cannot afford to show any weakness in this dire situation. Aside from the overriding need to protect its own people, other countries in the region including Jordan, Egypt and the UAE, depend on Israeli strength. That is the main reason Saudi Arabia has been negotiating for normalization with Israel. It may well be that recent developments in that process have helped prompt both Iran’s and Russia’s aggressive use of their terrorist proxies in this attack.

Den numera pensionerade brittiske arméöversten Richard Kemp påstår att Ryssland har ett finger med i spelet. Den ryska propagandan har i alla fall börjat.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ja, konspirationsteorierna flödar, som man kan förvänta sig hos gamla överstar som tror på militära (decisively) lösningar på allt. Läs ex.vis andra stycket i utläggningen nedan.

Andra har andra uppfattningar: https://www.svd.se/a/Xb18Vb/experter-ha ... cken-sjalv
Men genom att föra in detta under samma hatt som Ukrainakriget så stärker man ju uppfattningen att varken här eller där finns några politiska lösningar, endast militära.

Till vidare tillåter jag mig i alla fall att tro att Iran inte var hos Vladimir Vladimirovitj innan och fick detta OK-at, på samma sätt som Kim Il-Sung fick OK från Stalin för Koreakriget.

Det där översten ignorerar ju i alla händelser den underliggande konflikten med formuleringar som är vanliga bland högerreaktionärer:

Up until now, the IDF has been constrained in striking first against potential threats by international pressure, including from the United Nations, world governments and the media, which has never been known to miss an opportunity to condemn Israel for defending itself against actual attacks – never mind pre-emptively hitting at its enemies before they strike. This attack has surely changed all of that. Israel will have no choice other than to deal decisively with the terrorist groups in Gaza, in a manner that it has so far refrained from doing. That will mean unprecedented violence against terrorist targets in Gaza and there will inevitably be civilian casualties, given the extremists’ practice of using human shields.

Such action is essential for the defense of the Israeli population. It is therefore necessary for political leaders around the world to steel themselves to give their sustained support for whatever action Israel needs to take – and not just in the short term. They must now accept a responsibility they have previously shirked: giving sufficient leadership to overcome the cacophony of anti-Israel voices in the media, so-called human rights groups and their fellow travelers in universities and elsewhere, which will inevitably flow from Israeli defensive military operations.

Någon politisk lösning kan i alla fall inte skönjas så längre Netanyahu sitter vid makten. Det här försöket att örfila upp den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen är väl en rätt tydlig indikator på den inställningen: https://www.reuters.com/world/israel-ex ... 023-10-08/
Det passar förstås och Hamas terrorister och den iranska mördarregimen perfekt.

Men självklart utnyttjar ryssarna detta, det gör de med allt som kan spela dem i händerna.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Om jag skulle rekommendera en podd för ovanlighetens skull, så blir det denna, från RUSI:
Episode 60: Is Russia’s War in Ukraine Heading for a Stalemate?

Observera att en av de medverkande är Mark Galeotti, som här tidigare utnämnts till både "rysslandsexpert" och "balanserad".

Och som en bisats en RUSI-artikel om Rysslands strävan att försöka behärska den eurasiatiska landmassan:
It’s Russia’s (Maritime) World – We’re Just Living in It

[Enceladus]

Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks

Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.

Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.

Details of the operation were refined during several meetings in Beirut attended by IRGC officers and representatives of four Iran-backed militant groups, including Hamas, which holds power in Gaza, and Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group and political faction in Lebanon, they said.

Enligt högt uppsatta medlemmar i Hamas och Hizbollah har Iran hjälpt med planeringen av attacken mot Israel. Men inte bara Israel togs på sängen:

Biden’s promise to restore US leadership tested by fresh outbreak of war abroad

By all accounts, the sudden explosion of violence in Israel came as a surprise to Biden and his aides. It was just over a week ago that Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told an interviewer, “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades” – a statement that at the time was largely true.

He did go on to note that “all of that can change,” and senior administration officials have emphasized that rising tensions in Gaza and the West Bank have been a concern for months.

[...]

The sudden onset of the war in Israel stood in stark contrast to the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which the US warned about for months ahead of time using downgraded intelligence.

Förra året läckte den ryska stridsledningen som ett såll - USA hade mera information om Rysslands planerade operationer än om Ukrainas. Inte denna gång.

Israel military says situation ‘dire’ in south as 260 bodies retrieved from festival

Late on Sunday, Israeli rescue service Zaka said it had retrieved hundreds of bodies from the Supernova festival, near Kibbutz Re’im close to Gaza. Shocking images and video from the site showed festival-goers running for their lives across open fields as Hamas gunmen attacked them and took hostages.

[...]

He said fighting was continuing in southern Israel and that the IDF estimated upwards of 1,000 Hamas militants entered Israeli territory in Saturday’s unprecedented offensive. He said 700 Israelis had been killed – civilians and military personnel – and more than 2,100 wounded. With a “high number of critically wounded people”, more deaths are expected, he said. It was not clear how many of the bodies from the festival were already included in Israel’s overall toll.

[...]

Conricus said: “It is by far the worst day in Israeli history. Never before have so many Israelis been killed by one single thing on one day.” Drawing a US analogy, he said the weekend’s attack, for Israel, “could be a 9/11 and a Pearl Harbor wrapped into one”.

Tusentals människor flydde för sina liv när Hamas-terrorister attackerade en trancefestival nära Gaza. Likheterna med 11 september-attackerna är många.

Uppgifter: Rawa Majid har gripits i Iran

Rawa Majid ska ha gripits när han tagit sig över gränsen till Iran. Detta uppger av varandra oberoende källor med nära inblick i den interna Foxtrot-konflikten till SVT.

[...]

SVT:s kriminalreporter Diamant Salihu säger att gripandet kraftigt kan komma att försvaga Majids falang i Foxtrot-nätverket.

[...]

Majid är svensk medborgare men har de senaste åren befunnit sig i Turkiet där han även blivit turkisk medborgare. Det turkiska medborgarskapet försvårar för möjligheten att få Majid utlämnad till Sverige, eftersom Turkiet av princip inte lämnar ut sina medborgare.

Enligt uppgift har Iran gripit Sveriges mest ökända och eftersökta brottsling. Blir han ännu en bricka i den iranska mördarregimens spel? Oljepriset stiger...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Vi förlorar fokus på trådens ämne. Det är olämpligt att denna blir någon slags allmän utrikespolitisk blogg, därför föreslår jag i all vänlighet att vi minimerar utflykterna till andra konflikter, som Armenien-Azerbajdzjan eller Israel-Palestina.

[Enceladus]

Intressant schackdrag, att försöka binda upp Kongressen för längre tid. Frågan är det kan lyckas. Tiden fram till kommande årsskifte kan bli kritisk, både militärt och politiskt.

White House considers adding Ukraine to Israel aid package

Democratic and Republican lawmakers have expressed overwhelming support for Israel since Saturday’s attack and vowed that the United States would stand by one of its closest allies. That includes hard-right members of Congress who oppose continued aid to Ukraine and argue that U.S. taxpayer dollars should not be used to fund a war thousands of miles from American borders.

While providing military and economic aid to Ukraine has fractured the GOP, there is near-unanimous support in the party for helping Israel. The thinking among White House officials, and some pro-Ukraine lawmakers, is that linking the two aid requests could prompt some Republicans to vote for the combined package, because they would be unwilling to block military aid to Israel after Netanyahu declared the country at war.

[...]

Under current House rules, it is the speaker who moves legislation, so the chamber’s ability to approve any foreign aid package is in doubt until McCarthy’s successor is chosen. That process will start Tuesday, but it is not clear when any candidate will secure enough support to declare victory.

In the meantime, House lawmakers could vote to give interim speaker Patrick T. McHenry (R-N.C.) temporary authority to bring bills to the floor, one congressional aide said.

[...]

Israeli officials have made several specific requests to Washington in response to the military offensive by Hamas, including a replenishment of Iron Dome interceptors, small-diameter bombs, various rounds of ammunition for machine guns and heightened cooperation on intelligence-sharing related to potential military activities in southern Lebanon, according to U.S. officials familiar with the requests.

[...]

It is not the first time the shells have been at issue. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, U.S. officials sought to transfer 155mm shells to Ukraine that were kept in storage in Israel. Though the shells did not belong to Israel, Israeli officials balked at Washington’s request, forcing a negotiation that resulted in a smaller transfer.

Stödet till Ukraina kan kopplas ihop med Israel - tidigare skulle det vara Taiwan - för att minska motståndet i USA:s kongress. Räcker ammunitionen till alla?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Stödet till Ukraina kan kopplas ihop med Israel - tidigare skulle det vara Taiwan - för att minska motståndet i USA:s kongress. Räcker ammunitionen till alla?

Ja, spelplanen har ritats om en hel del de senaste dagarna. Men man kan vara för listig för sig eget bästa också.

But the potential plan was already facing roadblocks Monday. Asked about the prospect of a joint funding package, Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.), the No. 3 House Republican, said, “Absolutely not.” House Republicans have the votes to pass a stand-alone Israel aid package, she said — a move that could put pressure on Senate Democrats to approve it without strings attached.

Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) is a supporter of Ukraine, but he said he wants a clearer understanding of how the aid to Kyiv is being spent and warned against using Israel emergency funding as a vehicle to push through Ukraine aid. “If they try to jam me with more money on Ukraine without telling us what the plan is, where we’re at and how we’re doing it, that’s going to be a real problem — not just for me, but for a lot of people,” he said.

Vad som räcker till är helt och hållet en politisk fråga, inte en militär. Israels situation liknar varken Taiwans eller Ukrainas. Israel har redan vad de behöver militärt, och strider dessutom mot en lätt beväpnad fiende på några tusental man. Den kommer man att ha kämpat ned inom loppet av några veckor. Men Netanyahu är en slug -el och passar förstås på att smida medan järnet är varmt.

Ukrainas situation är helt annorlunda, man strider mot en stor och välbeväpnad fiende, och är för den skull beroende av en kontinuerlig tillförsel av militär materiel.

[Enceladus]

Putin Offers Muted Response to Attack on Israel. That Speaks Volumes.

The stark shift sheds light on one consequence of Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine: the sharp decline in the relationship between Moscow and Israel over the past year and a half, one that some Jewish leaders fear also presages a rise in antisemitism inside Russia.

It is also the latest conflict in a region where Moscow has played a major role but where it is now unwilling or unable to wield much influence. That played out dramatically last month in the Caucasus region, where Russia did not even seem to try to stop Azerbaijan from seizing control of the Armenian-populated breakaway enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh — a stinging defeat for Armenia, Russia’s military ally.

[...]

There are clear geopolitical reasons for Mr. Putin’s shift on Israel. In the Middle East, where Russia has long tried to play a kingmaker role and build relations with all major powers, Moscow now finds itself beholden to Iran — Israel’s bitter enemy — as one of its primary arms suppliers for the war in Ukraine.

[...]

But there are also, perhaps, more personal reasons. Mr. Putin appears stung that Israel and Jewish leaders around the world are not backing his false narrative about Ukraine’s being run by “Nazis.” In recent months, he has repeatedly lashed out at President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine for heading a Nazi government despite being Jewish. In June, Mr. Putin claimed that his “many Jewish friends” had told him that Mr. Zelensky was “a disgrace to the Jewish people.”

[...]

Israel has not participated in Western sanctions against Russia, and has refused to provide weapons to Ukraine because, Mr. Netanyahu has said, they could end up in Iranian hands. In June, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry claimed that the Israeli government was ignoring the suffering of Ukrainian Jews while opting for “a path of close cooperation with the Russian Federation.”

But in recent days, Mr. Zelensky has cast those criticisms aside and embraced Israel’s cause. In a speech to NATO on Monday, he said that Russia and Hamas, the Palestinian faction that controls Gaza, represented “the same evil.”

Försöker Zelenskyj förbättra relationen med Israel - eller USA:s yttersta höger? Dessutom uppskattar knappast Israel den ökande antisemitismen i Ryssland:

– Hitler hade också judiskt påbrå, så det betyder ingenting, svarade han.

Israels utrikesminister Yair Lapid ryter ifrån och beskriver Sergej Lavrovs uttalande som ett "oförlåtligt och skandalöst och fruktansvärt historiskt fel". Han bedömer att den ryske utrikesministern genom att säga så anammar en antisemitisk konspirationsteori om att judar själva bör klandras för Förintelsen.

Samtidigt flödar en annan konspirationsteori: Donald Trump's Israel Intel Leak Under Scrutiny After Hamas Attack

Thom Hartmann, author and political commentator, posted on X, formerly Twitter, while sharing a 2017 article from The Washington Post: "Hamas apparently knew how to get around Israel's Iron Dome defenses. They probably learned this from Iran. Iran almost certainly got the information from Russia. And who gave it to Russia? Sure looks like it was Donald Trump, at the request of Putin."

Allison Gill, who tweets using the account for the Mueller, She Wrote podcast, added: "Don't forget: Trump gave Israeli intelligence to Russians in the Oval Office 6 years ago. Putin armed Iran in exchange for drones to attack Ukraine."

[...]

Trump is due to go on trial in May 2024 accused of retaining classified documents after he left the White House in January 2021, and then obstructing the federal attempt to retrieve them from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Springs, Florida. The former president has pleaded not guilty to 40 charges as part of the criminal case and has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.

Den yttersta högern verkar dock bry sig mer om retorik än politik...

Scoop: Zelensky asks to visit Israel in show of solidarity

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wants to visit Israel in a show of solidarity with the country amid the fighting in Gaza, two Ukrainian and Israeli officials told Axios.

[...]

The officials said the talks on the issue are preliminary and there is still no date for a visit.

Zelensky told reporters on Wednesday that in the early days of Russia's invasion, it was critical for Ukraine not to feel alone and that international support helped a lot.

Zelenskyj uppges planera en resa till Israel. Kan detta bli något mer än ett PR-jippo?

NATO to respond if Baltic Sea pipeline damage deliberate - alliance chief

NATO will discuss damage to a gas pipeline and data cable running between member states Finland and Estonia, and will mount a "determined" response if a deliberate attack is proven, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday.

Damage to the Balticconnector pipeline and telecommunications cable was confirmed on Tuesday after one of the two pipeline operators, Finland's Gasgrid, noted a drop in pressure and possible leak on Sunday night during a storm.

Helsinki, which is investigating, has said the damage was probably caused by "outside activity". That has stoked concern over regional energy security and pushed gas prices higher.

En gasledning och en kommunikationskabel mellan Finland och Estland har skadats. Har Ryssland något i görningen igen?

[Enceladus]

NASA calls off spacewalk due to leak on International Space Station

NASA officials called off the planned International Space Station (ISS) spacewalk on Wednesday (Oct. 11), as a precautionary measure after a leak of ammonia coolant was spotted Monday (Oct. 9) in a backup radiator on the Russian Nauka science module. Another spacewalk on Oct. 20 is also postponed and new dates will be announced shortly, NASA officials stated.

[...]

Both Roscosmos and NASA officials have repeatedly said the leak — the third in Russian ISS equipment in the past year — had no material impact on space station operations.

But the delayed U.S. spacewalk will push off some minor maintenance on the station, along with a test that was supposed to be in support of future moon exploration.

Ryska delen av ISS har börjat läcka igen - för tredje gången. Vad händer med Rysslands rymdprogram!? Vill ens Kina samarbeta med Roscosmos framöver?

Russia’s 2024 Budget Shows It’s Planning for a Long War in Ukraine

For example, despite rising defense spending, the state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec made less income from the sale of weapons and military equipment in 2022 than it did in 2020. Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, ended 2022 with losses of 50 billion rubles, compared with losses of 31 billion rubles the year before. And the state-owned United Shipbuilding Corporation saw a loss of 20 billion rubles in 2022, compared with a loss of several billion rubles in 2021 and a net profit in 2019.

All of this suggests that the growth in military spending this year is largely an attempt by the government to keep pace with these costs. A similar process is likely to occur in 2024, given Russia’s defense sector’s dependence on imports. Western sanctions, the devaluation of the ruble, and the cost of import substitution mean a radical increase in the price tag of military equipment.

[...]

It seems the government is unconcerned about workforce and production limitations, and is increasing spending regardless, thereby stimulating internal demand. Yet this is a risky approach. A shortage of personnel together with Western tech sanctions mean productivity is unlikely to increase.

In addition, spending that is so skewed toward military and social needs can only be sustainable if the state is at war. A wartime economy dependent on imports is destined for high inflation, which means that interest rates will likely remain high. This, in turn, poses a risk to investment levels.

Rysslands ekonomi är byggd som ett korthus. Det är förstås inte hållbart, men Putin hoppas väl att han hinner dö innan korthuset faller sönder.

Russia’s Fuel Export Ban Reveals Systemic Problems, Wartime Stresses

At the same time, the Finance Ministry—under pressure to raise revenue to fund ballooning military spending—decided to slash so-called “dampener payments” designed to compensate oil companies for selling fuel on the domestic market. Inevitably, this led to a situation in which companies could only supply the domestic market at a loss: both compared with exports, and in absolute terms. The cuts to “dampener payments” began in September, but they were announced in July and the market effect was immediate.

[...]

No less serious was the reputational damage. New buyers outside Europe had only just started to receive Russian diesel when the export ban came into force. While those buyers were likely concerned about the potential impact of tougher Western sanctions on their arrangement, in the end, it was the Russian government that delivered the unpleasant surprise. It’s likely some of those buyers might have second thoughts about buying from Russia and either back out entirely, or demand significant discounts.

Using the nuclear option of an export ban was a sign of desperation. Government officials were trying to show ordinary Russians, as well as their bosses in the Kremlin, that they were taking decisive action. But it was also an attempt to seize the initiative in negotiations with oil companies. When there was a deficit, officials pleaded with oil companies to make concessions—whereas the ban had turned the tables on the companies, forcing them to petition the government and come up with possible solutions.

Dessutom plundras den ryska energisektorn som får landet att gå runt. Vem vill investera i Rysslands ekonomi under den närmaste tiden?

Russia Reimposes Some Capital Controls to Stem Ruble’s Slide

The government announced late Wednesday that 43 of the country’s biggest exporters, including its main oil producers, will be required to sell their earnings from foreign sales on the domestic market for rubles to ensure a supply of foreign exchange. Russia had imposed similar requirements as the ruble plunged after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but then lifted them when the currency recovered.

In the last few months, the ruble has resumed its declines, battered by rising inflation amid the ballooning cost of funding its war in Ukraine. An emergency rate hike by the central bank in August, followed by another increase last month, failed to stop the currency’s slide, which has taken the ruble to the psychologically important level of 100 per dollar.

[...]

“The fact that the government and the Bank of Russia see the need to coordinate hard currency sales and purchases suggest the deterioration of the local FX market - it is now considered too shallow and illiquid to function in an unregulated way,” Bloomberg Economics analyst Alexander Isakov said. “The measures are unlikely to reduce pressure in the long-term, but may increase FX supply in the coming weeks and months.”

Samtidigt är rubeln ett ständigt sorgebarn...

Hamas attack exposes deteriorating ties between Russia and Israel

Four days after the start of Hamas’s surprise attack, Putin is yet to call Netanyahu, while the Kremlin has not published a message of condolence to the country, a diplomatic gesture of goodwill that Russia routinely sends out to global leaders following deadly incidents on their soil.

[...]

But below the surface, there had been signs that the relationship between Russia and Israel was deteriorating over Putin’s claims that he was fighting “neo-Nazism” in Ukraine, while shifting his country into the orbit of Iran, an arch-enemy of Israel.

[...]

Andrei Soldatov, an expert on Russia’s security services, said such comments “unmasked the acute psychological trauma suffered by the Russian military after its disastrous offensive against Ukraine in the early months of 2022.”

“That loss of global respect is hard to bear for a nation with a proud military tradition. So, the relief offered by Hamas has triggered an avalanche of schadenfreude. Did you laugh at our incompetence? Now it’s our turn,” Soldatov said.

Putin har fortfarande inte ringt Netanyahu, och Ryssland har inte heller framfört sina kondoleanser efter helgens terrordåd. Putin är en dålig förlorare!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Jag får som vanligt städa, eftersom Enceladus-kollektivet inte klarar v att hålla två olika saker i huvudet.

Jag vet inte inte hur många gånger Enceladus-kollektivet förutsagt "maktskifte", senast i Turkiet.

Polish nationalists PiS on brink of losing power, exit poll shows

With war raging in neighbouring Ukraine and a migrant crisis brewing, Brussels and Washington have been watching the vote closely, although both PiS and its mainstream opposition support NATO-member Poland's key role in providing military and logistical support to Kyiv.

The Ipsos exit poll gave PiS 36.8% of the vote, which would translate into 200 lawmakers in the 460-seat parliament.

Opposition parties, led by the liberal Civic Coalition (KO), were projected to together win 248 seats, with the KO seen winning 31.6% of ballots cast.

[...]

If official results confirm the exit poll, Tusk and his allies from the centre-right Third Way and the New Left may have to wait weeks or even months before getting a turn at forming a government.

President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has said he would give the first shot to the winning party, suggesting Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki or another party leader would have the chance first. But with the far-right Confederation scoring 6.2%, below expectations, he will have few obvious allies, experts said.

[...]

Reflecting mounting discontent in the former Soviet bloc country over democratic backsliding and an erosion of women's rights on one hand and the cost of living on the other, turnout appeared to reach the highest level since the collapse of communism in 1989.

Opinionsmätningarna lyckades fånga valresultatet, precis som väntat. Det kan dessvärre ta lång tid att bilda en ny regering. Nåväl, än är Polen ej förlorat.

De siffror som nämns i olika nyhetsnotiser är noga taget inte valresultatet utan vallokalsundersökningar, där man frågar väljare på väg ut från vallokalen har det har röstat. Precisionen i dessa beror förstås på hur dessa utförs. Här är en beskrivning av hur det går till i Sverige:
https://www.gu.se/valforskningsprogramm ... ar-svtvalu

Båda sidor har f.ö. utropat sig till segrare. Regeringsbildningen går ju inte riktigt till som i Sverige, inte ens om man jämför med tiden efter riksdagsvalet 2018. Här är det fråga om PiS, som sitter på betydande maktresurser i form av presidentämbetet, domstolarna och medierna, går med på att öveerlämna regeringsmakten, i förekommande fall, eller om man tänker agera som Fort Trump.

[Enceladus]

Kustlösa länder som Ungern och Slovakien behöver se över sitt ryska energiberoende, speciellt när mellanliggande länder befinner sig i krig med Ryssland.

Bulgaria shocks Hungary, Serbia with huge transit fees on Russian gas

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó have reacted strongly to Bulgaria’s decision to introduce new, huge transit fees of €10.2 per MW/h of natural gas passing through the Bulgarian extension of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline to Western Europe – the so-called “Balkan Stream”.

Serbia and Hungary receive all quantities of Russian gas through the “Balkan Stream”, as do North Macedonia and Austria.

Bulgaria expects the new transit fees to generate additional revenues of €1.2 billion. The new fee is so high that it will pay off the construction of the Balkan Stream gas pipeline in just one year.

[...]

The conversation with Radev and the Bulgarian government is unlikely to help because the new legislation was adopted by the Euro-Atlantic majority, which has been acting completely independently of the president and the government in matters related to Russia in recent months.

[...]

“This is a pan-European policy to reduce Russia’s income from the sale of natural gas, petroleum products, etc. We are part of the big European family that does not want the war in Ukraine to continue. We must use economic measures to stop Russia,” Sabrutev said.

Som sagt, kustlösa länder behöver se över sitt ryska energiberoende, speciellt när Ryssland har alienerat alla grannländer. Och det är ingen liten höjning:

A new bill, published Friday and coming into force immediately, introduces a charge of 20 Bulgarian lev ($10.76) per megawatt hour of Russian-origin gas. That is about 20% of the price of Europe’s benchmark gas traded in the regional hub of Amsterdam.

Though Bulgaria does not import gas from Russia for its own needs, it is a significant route for the much-diminished pipeline flows that Russia sends to Europe after massive cuts in 2022. Almost half of Russian pipeline gas enters Bulgaria from Turkey via the TurkStream link, for further shipments to Hungary, Serbia and other parts of Southern Europe.

[...]

Russia’s Gazprom PJSC stopped supplying Bulgaria’s domestic market last year, after the country refused to pay in rubles for the fuel and switched to alternative suppliers, including Turkey. Last month, Bulgarian lawmakers approved a motion to gradually end imports of Russian crude oil, bringing the country in line with other European Union members.

Mästerstrategen har alltså slagit till igen. Bulgariens president Radev kan inte stoppa landets förda utrikespolitik!

Jag har aldrig kommenterat Bulgariens faktiska stöd till Ukraina, däremot har jag sagt att det är inrikespolitiskt ohållbart på sikt om landets president och regering befinner sig på kollisionskurs beträffande den förda utrikespolitiken.

Nä, det är Ungern som befinner sig på kollisionskurs...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Mästerstrategen har alltså slagit till igen. Bulgariens president Radev kan inte stoppa landets förda utrikespolitik!

Jag har aldrig kommenterat Bulgariens faktiska stöd till Ukraina, däremot har jag sagt att det är inrikespolitiskt ohållbart på sikt om landets president och regering befinner sig på kollisionskurs beträffande den förda utrikespolitiken.

Nä, det är Ungern som befinner sig på kollisionskurs...

Den som vill veta någonting mer om den pågående inrikespolitiska konflikten i Bulgarien, istället för Enceladus-kollektivets svepande floskler, rekommenderas den här wikipedia-artikeln om landets president Rumen Radev

[Enceladus]

Den som vill veta någonting mer om den pågående inrikespolitiska konflikten i Bulgarien, istället för Enceladus-kollektivets svepande floskler, rekommenderas den här wikipedia-artikeln om landets president Rumen Radev

China's Xi Eyes Victory Lap For Belt And Road On Its 10-Year Anniversary, Despite Criticism

Ensuring strong representation across Europe may also be difficult. While pro-Beijing governments in Hungary and Serbia have said they will send high-profile delegations led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Serbian President Aleksandr Vucic, it's unclear who else will attend, particularly among European Union members.

European countries formed some of the largest contingents of leaders at the previous meetings, but fallout from China's handling of the pandemic, its support for Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and numerous scandals related to BRI projects have seen Beijing's standing fall and ties fray. Italy, which was the only Group of Seven country to join the BRI, announced its intent earlier this year to withdraw from the program.

[...]

One world leader who confirmed his attendance long ago is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will be making his first trip to China since his February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and is expected to raise a variety of issues with Xi, including the future of the much-sought-after Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline.

Vem är det som befinner sig på kollisionskurs beträffande den förda utrikespolitiken? Kustlösa länder behöver ha goda relationer med sina grannländer.

With eye on U.S., Turkey in no rush to back Sweden's NATO bid - sources

Turkey is willing to hold off ratifying Sweden's bid to join NATO this month as it awaits signs of U.S. support for its own request to buy F-16 jets, sources said, potentially disappointing bloc allies hoping to end 17 months of delay.

[...]

Two people familiar with the situation said Ankara wanted to move in tandem with Washington, where the State Department is expected at some time to seek congressional approval for a $20-billion sale of F-16 fighters to Turkey and dozens of modernisation kits.

"Given the lack of trust over the issue of F-16s and Sweden, Turkey is not rushing to ratify the NATO bid and looking for a sign that the United States is taking steps at the same time," said an official from Erdogan's ruling AK Party.

Här är en annan ledare som befinner sig på kollisionskurs...

Japan’s Aging Pro-Russia Lobby Is on Borrowed Time

As with Abe, Mori’s reverential attitude toward Russia can be traced to his father, who in his post as a city mayor established close ties with the town of Shelekhov in the Irkutsk region of Siberia. So deep was the older Mr. Mori’s devotion to Russia that he ordered some of his ashes to be buried there. In March 2001, Prime Minister Mori visited his father’s grave in Shelekhov. He was accompanied by Vladimir Putin, who had become Russia’s president a year earlier.

[...]

Yukio Hatoyama’s policy was also shaped by his family’s legacy. His grandfather, Ichiro Hatoyama, served as prime minister between 1954 and 1956 and signed the joint declaration with the Soviet Union that restored diplomatic relations. Like Mori, Yukio Hatoyama continued to lobby for Russia’s interests after leaving office. In March 2015, he even visited Crimea and proclaimed that the illegal and internationally unrecognized referendum held there a year earlier had been completely legitimate.

[...]

In short, Japan’s politicians have run out of any reasons to lobby for closer ties with Russia. Once Mori (86), Hatoyama (76), and Suzuki (75) leave the stage, it is doubtful there will be anyone willing to replace them.

Dessutom lever Putins få allierade i Japan på lånad tid.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Den som vill veta någonting mer om den pågående inrikespolitiska konflikten i Bulgarien, istället för Enceladus-kollektivets svepande floskler, rekommenderas den här wikipedia-artikeln om landets president Rumen Radev

China's Xi Eyes Victory Lap For Belt And Road On Its 10-Year Anniversary, Despite Criticism

Ensuring strong representation across Europe may also be difficult. While pro-Beijing governments in Hungary and Serbia have said they will send high-profile delegations led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Serbian President Aleksandr Vucic, it's unclear who else will attend, particularly among European Union members.

European countries formed some of the largest contingents of leaders at the previous meetings, but fallout from China's handling of the pandemic, its support for Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and numerous scandals related to BRI projects have seen Beijing's standing fall and ties fray. Italy, which was the only Group of Seven country to join the BRI, announced its intent earlier this year to withdraw from the program.

[...]

One world leader who confirmed his attendance long ago is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will be making his first trip to China since his February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and is expected to raise a variety of issues with Xi, including the future of the much-sought-after Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline.

Vem är det som befinner sig på kollisionskurs beträffande den förda utrikespolitiken? Kustlösa länder behöver ha goda relationer med sina grannländer.

Jag talar om Bulgarien. Enceladus-kollektivet talar om annat!

[Enceladus]

The Orient Express: North Korea’s Clandestine Supply Route to Russia

Dozens of high-resolution satellite images taken in recent months reveal that Russia has likely begun shipping North Korean munitions at scale, opening a new supply route that could have profound consequences for the war in Ukraine and international security dynamics in East Asia.

[...]

Embroiled in a grinding attritional conflict in Ukraine, Moscow has scoured the globe for munitions to supply its armed forces, which are currently attempting to repel a determined Ukrainian counteroffensive. But while Iran answered Moscow’s call, supplying the country with hundreds of Shahed loitering munitions, other UAVs and weapons, North Korean arms have yet to appear in significant quantities on the battlefield.

That, however, is about to change. Dozens of high-resolution images, revealed here for the first time and captured in recent months over Dunai and the North Korean port of Rajin, show the two cargo vessels repeatedly transporting hundreds of containers likely packed with North Korean armaments.

Nordkorea ger sig in i leken. Vad får landet i utbyte, hur reagerar Sydkorea och har Kina godkänt uppgörelsen? Ukraina har fördel i precision och skottvidd.

Forgotten Front: Why Syria Is Becoming a Headache for Russia

For several years, Russia has set itself the joint mission with Iran of pushing the United States out of Syria—and ideally out of the entire Middle East. Yet Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and subsequent growing alignment with Tehran have actually had the opposite effect: the U.S. presence in the region is growing.

Indeed, Washington finally has a clear justification for continuing its campaign in Syria. The more Russia gets entangled in the Middle East, the more challenging it becomes for Moscow to handle Ukraine.

In addition to Russia’s confrontation with the United States, the situation inside Syria itself is escalating, and Russia is also dealing with the problems of integrating the remaining Wagner mercenary troops into the Russian armed forces following the dismantling of Wagner and dramatic death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. These growing difficulties are turning the war-torn country into a headache for Moscow and undermining hopes that Syria would not distract the Russian leadership from the war in Ukraine.

Syrien har blivit en kollapsad stat medan Rysslands inflytande i världen faller ihop som ett korthus. Blir Syrien nästa land att frigöra sig från det ryska oket?

Biden considering $100 bln funding request that includes Israel, Ukraine aid -sources

U.S. President Joe Biden may consider a supplemental request of about $100 billion that would include defense aid for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, multiple sources familiar with the request told Reuters on Tuesday.

[...]

A congressional source familiar with the request said Israel had asked for $10 billion, as it responds to an attack on its citizens by the Iran-backed militant group Hamas. Israel already receives $3.8 billion per year from the United States, under a 10-year agreement that began in 2016.

[...]

Senator Mitch McConnell, the chamber's top Republican, said he expected the request to include assistance for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, and said Republicans want it to include "something serious" for the border.

Den hårdföre Jordan blev inte heller vald till talman. Ryssland har numer 12 610 bekräftade förluster i Ukraina, varav 2 404 stridsvagnar, exklusive dagens!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

China's Xi Eyes Victory Lap For Belt And Road On Its 10-Year Anniversary, Despite Criticism

Ensuring strong representation across Europe may also be difficult. While pro-Beijing governments in Hungary and Serbia have said they will send high-profile delegations led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Serbian President Aleksandr Vucic, it's unclear who else will attend, particularly among European Union members.

European countries formed some of the largest contingents of leaders at the previous meetings, but fallout from China's handling of the pandemic, its support for Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and numerous scandals related to BRI projects have seen Beijing's standing fall and ties fray. Italy, which was the only Group of Seven country to join the BRI, announced its intent earlier this year to withdraw from the program.

[...]

One world leader who confirmed his attendance long ago is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will be making his first trip to China since his February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and is expected to raise a variety of issues with Xi, including the future of the much-sought-after Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline.

Vem är det som befinner sig på kollisionskurs beträffande den förda utrikespolitiken? Kustlösa länder behöver ha goda relationer med sina grannländer.

Ja, det kan man tycka. En som tycker att Orbanien bör stärka sina relationer med Putin och Ryssland har vi här:
https://apnews.com/article/putin-orban- ... d5ecce5d2e



Fast ser han inte lite sammanbiten ut? Inte samma glada miner som när han träffar sin kompis sultanen.


Det här är min kompis, förstår du!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

På tal om Kina så är här en bra artikel om hur den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen använder asociala medier för att försöka destabilisera och ta kontroll över tänkandet hos sina (potentiella) fiender. Inte minst genom eget TikTok, som ju är ett vapen som har den uppväxande generationen som mål, utan även alla som är slavar under högerextremisten Musks twitter/X:
China’s social-media attacks are part of a larger ‘cognitive warfare’ campaign

En kommunist tänker alltid långsiktigt. Och så har man lärt sig något av Sovjetunionens kollaps - kommunistdiktaturen får aldrig släppa järngreppet.

[Enceladus]

En kommunist tänker alltid långsiktigt. Och så har man lärt sig något av Sovjetunionens kollaps - kommunistdiktaturen får aldrig släppa järngreppet.

Vidare tvingas Putin vänta ännu längre på att Xi ska godkänna gasledningen Power of Siberia 2 - om projektet någonsin blir av:

The gas pipeline, known as Power of Siberia 2, is intended to deliver supply from Gazprom’s Yamal fields and western Siberia to China via Mongolia. For months, the Russian government has said talks with China are “in the final stages,” but concrete progress hasn’t been evident.

The project, which would take years to build once approved, would help boost Russia’s total gas shipments to China as Moscow looks to its giant Asian neighbor to replace Europe as its major gas customer.

“Russia has limited options as its economic dependency on China deepen — even though Moscow understands its predicament,” said Philipp Ivanov, a senior fellow at the Asia Society in New York. But “Chinese investments in Russia remain disproportionately small. Chinese companies are wary of political risks, secondary sanctions, corruption and overall unpredictability of the Russian market.”

Som bekant har Kina blivit marknadsledande inom solceller, batterier samt elfordon. Behöver Kina fortfarande rysk gas? Kina bryr sig ju också om säkerhet:

How China’s EV Boom Caught Western Car Companies Asleep at the Wheel

“The primary motivation for China to push for EVs was energy security,” says Russo. “Second was industrial competitiveness, and a far distant third was sustainability.”

När det gäller energipolitik är Kina och Tyskland varandras motsatser!

IEA Adjusts Oil Demand Forecast Amid Global Economic Concerns and Rise of Electric Vehicles

Amid shifting global economic conditions and the accelerated adoption of electric vehicles, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024. The IEA has now lowered the projection to 880,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the prior estimate of 1 million bpd. However, this revision hasn’t deterred the agency from raising its 2023 demand forecast to 2.3 million bpd.

[...]

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have strategically limited supplies to bolster prices. But the balance could shift to surplus if additional cuts, scheduled to unwind in January, proceed as planned. Interestingly, despite Russia’s promise to reduce crude exports, its total exports of crude oil and products saw an increase in September.

[...]

As the world continues to grapple with economic uncertainty and the urgent need for climate action, the energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation. The accelerated adoption of electric vehicles and other energy-efficient technologies is expected to continue, potentially leading to further revisions in oil demand forecasts. Therefore, stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable to navigate the evolving dynamics of the global oil market.

Det går som sagt inte att lita på Ryssland. Oljekartellen Opec hoppas på ökad efterfrågan. Peak oil uppnås dock via minskad efterfrågan snarare än brist!

Intressant schackdrag, att försöka binda upp Kongressen för längre tid. Frågan är det kan lyckas. Tiden fram till kommande årsskifte kan bli kritisk, både militärt och politiskt.

Biden expected to seek $60B for Ukraine and aid for Israel in $100B funding request

While it’s not yet finalized, the supplemental funding package is likely to seek $60 billion for Ukraine, a lawmaker and two sources with knowledge of the request said. The rest of the request will include roughly $40 billion to provide aid to Israel, Taiwan and the U.S.-Mexico border.

The total supplemental funding request, which is expected to be for the fiscal year that ends next September, will total around $100 billion, said four sources directly involved in the process.

[...]

Congressional Republicans, particularly those wary about sending more aid to Ukraine, argue the U.S. needs to replenish munitions that have been sent to Europe and that the supplemental funding for Ukraine might help quell some of those concerns because some of the funds could be used for replenishment, three of the sources said. While the money for munitions is expected to be attached to the Ukraine funding request, these sources said the weapons could be used for various purposes, with the Middle East as a point of discussion.

Tre femtedelar uppges gå till Ukraina. USA:s representanthus behöver dock först välja en talman. Jordan misslyckades igen. Flera vill permanenta McHenry.

[Enceladus]

Jordan suspends bid for US House speaker, backs McHenry

The Washington Post and Punchbowl reported that Jordan will not seek a third vote to win the post and instead will back a plan to empower McHenry to hold the post until January, the outlets reported. McHenry is currently serving as acting speaker.

That option, which Democrats have also said they might support, would allow lawmakers to get back to work. Democratic President Joe Biden is expected to ask Congress this week to approve as much as $60 billion for Ukraine and $10 billion for Israel, and funding for U.S. government operations is also due to expire in less than a month.

Förhoppningsvis hinner kongressen godkänna det gigantiska stödpaketet innan Jordan kommer tillbaka. Han sägs nämligen vara en dålig förlorare:

Jordan hates to lose. His entire brand is wrapped up in fighting liberals and being a winner. That’s why Jordan doesn’t want to go through a third roll-call vote on the floor, especially when he could lose even more votes, according to more than a half-dozen sources involved in the talks. Jordan’s office denies this, saying he plans to move forward with trying to become speaker.

But at the same time, House Republican leaders feel as if they can no longer hold back members who want to elect McHenry speaker pro tem for the next roughly 80 days. These GOP lawmakers are desperate to get back to work after more than two weeks of humiliating Republican infighting that has cost them one speaker already.

[...]

Electing McHenry as speaker pro tem would allow him to oversee the passage of government-funding bills and aid to Israel and possibly Ukraine over the next few months without the usual internal political pressures facing a GOP speaker. Democrats would likely protect McHenry on a motion-to-vacate if hardline Republicans try to take him out, Democratic sources tell us.

Det verkar som att Jordan trots allt inte har gett upp än. Vox listar fem möjliga utfall, där det sista sägs vara det minst sannolika:

1) The “Never Jordan” bloc caves
2) The “Only Jordan” bloc settles for someone else
3) Some Republicans cut a deal with Democrats
4) McHenry just takes the reins without an official vote
5) It doesn’t end

Men Putin kan ju alltid hoppas!

Russian oil freight rates jump as US boosts scrutiny of price cap compliance

Oil freight rates from Russia's Baltic ports to India are up some 50% since last week as more shipowners quit the market after the first U.S. sanctions on shipowners carrying Russian crude priced above a G7 cap, three sources said on Tuesday.

[...]

"Urals discounts (on a cost, insurance and freight basis) may widen due to higher freight, transaction costs and sanction risk," another trader in the Russian oil market said.

Russian crude discounts to global benchmarks have stabilised at $11-12 per barrel from $35-38 per barrel in early 2023, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview broadcast last Friday.

Samtidigt fortsätter snaran dras åt om Ryssland.

Russia’s Capital Controls Are Designed to Aid Putin’s 2024 Re-Election

By July, the ruble was falling toward the psychologically significant level of 100 against the U.S. dollar. There were immediate reasons for this, such as the failed insurrection by the Wagner mercenary army. Long-term reasons included fewer exports, rising imports, more capital transfers within Russia to non-ruble accounts, and a low level of liquidity.

It was the Finance Ministry that first raised the possibility of reimposing capital controls. The central bank was opposed. Initially, the Kremlin was closer to the central bank’s position, and over the summer, it was decided to come to informal agreements with exporters rather than legislating.

[...]

At the same time, capital controls are a double-edged sword. Their imposition shows that trust in the ruble has collapsed, which will ultimately fuel further currency devaluation and raise inflation expectations. The destruction of the ruble’s reputation will lead to greater capital outflows. For these reasons, it cannot be excluded that the Kremlin will impose even stricter capital controls, inflicting yet more long-term harm. The authorities are no doubt hoping they can forget about these damaging consequences until after Putin’s re-election.

Mästerförhalaren gör vad han kan bäst: skjuter alla problem på framtiden.

[Enceladus]

Vad som kan sägas utöver detta är att det förstås taktiskt är rent vansinne att använda ett värdefullt långräckviddigt precisionsvapen som ATACMS till att lägga ut klustermattor. ATACMS ska naturligtvis användas som Storm Shadow/SCALP EG, dvs. för angrepp mot hårdgjorda strukturer och fortifierade mål samt infrastrukturmål som broar, flygfält etc.

Struntprat. Ryssland förlorade minst 24 helikoptrar i Operation Dragonfly. Ryssland har numer 12 772 bekräftade förluster i Ukraina, varav 131 helikoptrar.



Enligt uppskattningen ovan har Ryssland knappt 9 000 pansarskyttefordon kvar i lager, varav nästan hälften BMP-fordon. Detta är dock färre än tidigare.

Beneath the Surface, Prigozhin’s Mutiny has Changed Everything in Russia

Russia’s Other War: The Administrators Versus the Revisionists

Despite expectations to the contrary, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not splintered the country’s leadership or given rise to either a revived opposition or a party of peace. Granted, some in the elite secretly favor an end to hostilities, but they keep their feelings to themselves. The result is that the only divisions in Russia’s corridors of power today are tactical differences, such as between realists, who have soberly assessed Russia’s military and economic prospects, and those pushing for escalation at all costs.

[...]

These two seemingly trivial episodes capture a key divide that could form the basis for a conflict within the elite. It’s true that there exists a strong consensus among Russia’s power players that defeat in Ukraine must be avoided. In terms of tactics, however, they differ substantially as to what comes next, and it is through their efforts to sway Putin—on questions of how to regulate information flows and deal with Russians whose loyalty is in doubt, and how rapidly and extensively to Sovietize the country—that this tension is increasingly expressed.

[...]

It’s worth noting how the siloviki, or security services, fit into all this. On the one hand, their ranks include technocrats such as Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov, whose approaches closely resemble that of the administrators. On the other, there are also frustrated secret revisionists among the siloviki. People like Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, Investigative Committee chief Alexander Bastrykin, and Foreign Intelligence Service head Sergei Naryshkin operate within the system, influencing the official agenda and advancing their own ideology and vision of the future.

Tatiana Stanovaya fortsätter att skriva om Rysslands förvandling. Interna konflikter kan inte uteslutas, speciellt med tanke på veckans militära motgångar.

NATO to respond if Baltic Sea pipeline damage deliberate - alliance chief

Latvian president: Close Baltic Sea if Russia behind Balticconnector damage

If Russia is proven responsible for recent damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia, NATO should opt to close the Baltic Sea to ships, Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics said in an interview with LTV's "Today's Question" on Thursday.

Asked what NATO's response should be to recent damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline and communication cable as well as another communication cable between Sweden and Estonia, Rinkevics said that the results of the investigation should be awaited first, Latvian public broadcaster LSM reported Friday morning.

[...]

Rinkevics acknowledged that this is of course a question of a whole series of maritime rights, but said that if it's clearly proven to be Russia behind the damage, the discussion "has to be that to protect our critical infrastructure, there needs to be a conversation about how we can close the Baltic Sea."

Lettlands president utesluter inte en blockad mot Ryssland om det visar sig att landet ligger bakom den senaste tidens kabelskador i Östersjön.

UN Bans On Iran’s Missile Program Expires, No Snapback In Sight

UN Bans On Iran End, Setting Stage For Missiles Proliferation

“All it takes is one letter” to the UN Security Council by parties of the JCPOA to keep checks and balances on Iran’s drones and missiles, Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at US-based think-tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) tells Iran International.

[...]

Taleblu says unless Iran starts stockpiling weapons-grade uranium, these countries will not pursue a snapback mechanism. “Despite the recently lapsed UN prohibitions on Iranian missile testing and transfers, snapback still remains an option and should be considered an option. Legally under UN Security Council resolution 2231, snapback will remain an option until the fall of 2025. That means that the US or the E3 can still snapback and restore older multilateral penalties on Iran’s nuclear, missile and military program. And yes, all it takes is a letter from one of these JCPOA participants to the president of the UN Secretary Council and to run a 30-day clock,” Taleblu added.

[...]

“It is absolutely true that Iran did violate even arms transfer prohibitions prior to them expiring in 2020, however, thus far Iran has not given ballistic missiles to Russia,” he said, arguing that Iran waited for these US measures to end so that it can trade its missiles in broad daylight.“It is my contention that Iran was waiting for these international prohibitions to lapse to more seriously consider supplying Russia with ballistic missiles. Iran wants some of its arms transfers to not be penalized by the West and considered legal,” Taleblu said.

[...]

“Snapback matters because it sets a multilateral in International legal baseline for pressure against Iran.”

UK, Frankrike och Tyskland kan återinföra alla FN-sanktioner mot Iran. Kommer denna möjlighet att användas om Iran skickar missiler till Ryssland?

Jordan suspends bid for US House speaker, backs McHenry

Two more Trump co-defendants plead guilty. What next?

With the frightening Israel-Hamas war and a major spoke of the US government – the House of Representatives – unsolvably speakerless and in a state of paralysis, a pair of guilty pleas in a Georgia courtroom almost feels like Page 2 news.

But these particular guilty pleas this week come from two of former President Donald Trump’s co-defendants, the second and third such admissions of guilt in the criminal case brought against him for trying to overturn Georgia’s 2020 presidential election result.

[...]

Anti-Trump Republicans want some of the candidates challenging him to drop out of the race so that the opposition can coalesce around an individual alternative. The debate stage November 8 is expected to be much smaller, perhaps with only a few people.

Trumps korthus faller. En tredje medåtalad har erkänt sig skyldig i Georgia, Jordan har dumpats som talmanskandidat och RFK Jr. stjäl Trumps väljare.

Efter en intern partiomröstning fick sedan Jim Jordan förtroendet att försöka bli talman. Republikanen från Ohio testade sitt stöd i tre omröstningar i representanthuset men var aldrig riktigt nära att få tillräckligt med röster för att bli talman. I den första omröstningen röstade 20 partikollegor mot Jordan, som är en nära allierad till Donald Trump, den siffran växte sedan till 22 och 25 i de efterföljande omröstningarna.

[...]

Flera republikaner har föreslagit expresidenten Donald Trump till talmansposten, vilket formellt skulle vara möjligt. Det skulle dock kräva att Republikanernas regel om att partiets ledamöter i representanthuset inte får vara åtalade för brott ändras.

Utan en ordinarie talman kan inte representanthus rösta igenom några nya lagar, vilket bland annat kan innebära problem när nya stödpaket till Israel och Ukraina ska beslutas.

En färsk DN-artikel om talmansomröstningarna skildrar den stora oenigheten inom Republikanerna. Det hjälper förstås inte att Trump är åtalad för brott.