Regime Change in Russia Won’t Lead to Chaos or Collapse
Carnegie Politika skrev:It’s odd to try and scare the world with the specter of a leader more terrible than Putin. What could be worse than the biggest military conflict in Europe of the twenty-first century, and greater repression in Russia than the late Soviet Union? Thanks to the Kremlin and a spineless elite, we’re already living in an anti-utopia.
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Widespread indifference in Russia will help an orderly transition to a new regime: ordinary people will obey any ruler who appears to be legitimate. Beloved Putin will no longer be beloved as soon as a power transition takes place. That’s how it has always been.
Moreover, if we’re talking historical precedents, a change of leader in Russia has almost always been accompanied by liberalization, not bloody chaos (Khrushchev’s thaw after Stalin, Gorbachev’s perestroika after Brezhnev’s gerontocracy, and Yeltsin’s reforms after the end of the Soviet Union). Even power struggles at the top have not, historically speaking, tended to lead to chaos.
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Another bogeyman promoted by some analysts is the disintegration of Russia. But this is even less likely than civil strife or the emergence of a leader worse than Putin. The rush for sovereignty in Russia in the early 1990s was the result of regions trying to survive amid the trials of constructing a new economy, and new state institutions. When we remember the 1990s, we often forget the huge challenges facing the government: from the lack of state agencies and a bureaucracy, to empty coffers.
There are compelling economic, budgetary, and political-management reasons why Russia will not disintegrate in the post-Putin era. Russia is not a particularly rich country, and wealth inequality is compounded by regional inequality—making many regions dependent on federal subsidies. In short, regional economies cannot survive on their own, and leaving the Russian Federation would cause serious problems.
Somliga Putinvänliga skribenter påstår att ett ryskt regimskifte skulle vara dåligt för väst. Därför ska väst inte förnedra Putin. Som sagt, rysk propaganda.
Why Russia Keeps Holding Elections
Carnegie Politika skrev:For governors in particular, elections are an opportunity to demonstrate to the Kremlin that they are in total control of their regions. Any disruption, including opposition from rival elite groups, is taken as a sign of weakness, and as evidence of a governor’s unfitness to rule.
Elections also serve as a reminder to governors that they are beholden to the president, without whom they would not be nominated, supported, or elected. Indeed, President Vladimir Putin was a visible presence in the recent regional elections, attending the unveiling of a highway in the Nizhny Novgorod region and a commuter rail line in Moscow. It is to him that governors appeal in the run-up to elections, seeking financial and other support for major local projects.
At all levels, elections in Russia are an initiation ritual and a test of belonging. One must demonstrate total loyalty to the president and preparedness to play by his rules. Notably, this year, all but two of the acting governors who ran for election did so as United Russia candidates—even Sobyanin, who had in previous election cycles campaigned as an independent.
Ryska val testar kandidaternas lojalitet och kontroll. På grund av denna procedur kan dock Putin tvingas vänta med nästa mobilisering - till Ukrainas glädje.
Nature Index Annual Tables 2023: China tops natural-science table
Nature skrev:The latest Nature Index Annual Tables underscore an unmistakable trend in the natural sciences: Western nations are losing ground while China continues to make gains. But underlying this well-established pattern is evidence for the rise of emerging nations and the possible effect of the war in Ukraine on Russian research performance.
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The latest Nature Index tables might also reflect other notable trends in global science and politics. Russia’s adjusted Share declined by 17%, the biggest drop of any country in the top 20. “The data undoubtedly point to a decoupling of Russian science and intellectualism from the global knowledge networks,” says Simon Marginson, a higher-education researcher and director of the Centre for Global Higher Education at the University of Oxford. He says the invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war has forced many Russian scientists to abandon international projects. “Collaboration with Euro-American colleagues, previously welcomed by the state, now brings the risk of being named as a foreign agent,” says Marginson.
Ukraine’s adjusted Share rose by 47% while Russia’s dropped, but this was based on a very small Share value compared with Russia.
Nästan allt går dåligt för Ryssland - även inom den vetenskapliga domänen.
Russian Villages Lose Power After Ukraine Drone Strike
Barron's skrev:Since Russia launched hostilities against Ukraine last year, Russian regions bordering Ukraine have repeatedly accused Kyiv's forces of attacking civilian infrastructure, including the power grid.
"In the morning, a Ukrainian drone dropped an explosive device on an electricity substation in the village of Snagost in Korenevsky District. Seven settlements were left without power," Kursk Governor Roman Starovoit said.
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The attack comes four days after Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal warned Russia had renewed attacks on Ukraine's own energy infrastructure, which suffered major outages last year.
Den som ger sig in i leken får leken tåla - Ryssland har inget monopol på att attackera energiinfrastruktur.
How Russia’s Salary Woes Helped Ukraine Strike the Black Sea Fleet HQ
Kyiv Post skrev:Speaking exclusively to Kyiv Post, the partisan movement of Ukrainians and Tatars in Crimea (ATESH) said it obtained key information about the location and activities of high-ranking Russian commanders from cash-strapped officers in exchange for financial rewards.
“Delays in payments alone do not force the military armed forces of the Russian Federation to go against the Russian authorities,” a spokesperson for the group said, adding that those who help them also believe their country is “waging a criminal war and that it needs to stop.”
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ATESH has previously detailed how its partisans recruited a Russian serviceman who helped plan the Ukrainian strikes earlier this month that rocked the Sevastopol Shipyard in Russian Crimea, severely damaging the “Rostov-on-Don” submarine and the “Minsk” Large Landing Ship.
Uppenbarligen finns det tillräckligt många som motsätter sig den ryska ockupationen av Krymhalvön...
