Forum - Spårvägssällskapet.se

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑söndag 17 mars 2024 9:27 Ukrainas UAV-attacker kan naturligtvis inte tillfoga Ryssland något strategiskt nederlag, för det skulle krävas helt andra vapeninsatser. UAV-ernas räckvidd och stridsladdning sätter också gränser för deras förmåga. Militärt har de betydelsen att de tvingar Ryssland att aktivera militära resurser även på andra håll än i frontområdet.

Defense One skrev:Top military officials, speaking on background, have pointed to Russian military doctrine specifically as it relates so-called existential risk, saying that giving Ukraine such weapons could compel a nuclear response from Russia, or spur it to attack a NATO partner.

Since the fall, reports have suggested the United States may have changed its calculation, and may be sending small numbers of the long-range missiles in secret—despite the fact that the White House has previously said it doesn’t have enough of them to send.

[...]

Brown didn’t officially confirm or deny the reporting either, but he did say that Russia’s muted response to a series of recent Ukrainian drone attacks well inside of Russian territory have allowed the Pentagon to adjust its analysis on the risk of sending ATACMS.

DN skrev:President Putin och flera av hans män har upprepade gånger öppet hotat att ”använda alla tillgängliga medel” – i klartext även kärnvapen – i det fall Ukraina och deras västliga uppbackare gör… ja, exakt vad?

Redan tidigare har ju linje efter linje överskridits – från västliga stridsvagnar till amerikanska militärflygplan till Ukraina – utan att det har besvarats av mycket mer än hotfulla ord från Kreml.

Uppenbarligen är den röda linjen elastisk. Denna vaghet har ett syfte; att hålla motståndaren i osäkerhet och att behålla en egen flexibilitet om man tvingas att backa.

Special Kherson Cat skrev:Targeting of two Russian TOR air defence systems at the same location by FPV drones. The first TOR began to smoke after the hit. The second TOR was targeted in the radar but the aftermath of the strike were not shown.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑fredag 29 mars 2024 8:13 Ja, Enceladus-kollektivet verkar ha fastnat i den högerextrema floskeln "godhetssignalera". Det säger en hel del om Enceladus-kollektivet, men eftersom jag inte ägnar mig åt personangrepp så ska jag inte utveckla den tanken.

Intermarium 24 skrev:The Polish President has just signed a law regarding the suspension of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, signed in Paris on November 19, 1990.

[...]

"This suspension will mean that the Republic of Poland, like other countries that choose to do so, will no longer be obliged to fulfill the Treaty's provisions while remaining formally bound by its terms. The suspension is to be indefinite. The law comes into force on the day following its announcement," the statement emphasized.

In 2007, Vladimir Putin signed a decree suspending Russia's participation in the Treaty; on November 7, 2023, he announced that Russia completely ceased to recognize this Treaty.

Enceladus skrev: ↑fredag 29 mars 2024 16:54 Redan tidigare har ju linje efter linje överskridits – från västliga stridsvagnar till amerikanska militärflygplan till Ukraina – utan att det har besvarats av mycket mer än hotfulla ord från Kreml.

Uppenbarligen är den röda linjen elastisk. Denna vaghet har ett syfte; att hålla motståndaren i osäkerhet och att behålla en egen flexibilitet om man tvingas att backa.

Enceladus skrev: ↑fredag 29 mars 2024 16:54 För övrigt orsakar ukrainska drönare stora förluster:

Special Kherson Cat skrev:Targeting of two Russian TOR air defence systems at the same location by FPV drones. The first TOR began to smoke after the hit. The second TOR was targeted in the radar but the aftermath of the strike were not shown.

Nästan varje dag likvideras ryska luftvärnspjäser medelst drönare. Inte ens Ryssland har ett oändligt förråd. Ukraina tänker tillverka två miljoner drönare i år!

CBS skrev:With spring approaching, Zelenskyy said Ukraine's forces had managed to hold off Russian advances through the worst of the winter months.

"We have stabilized the situation. It is better than it used to be two or three months ago when we had a big deficit of artillery ammunition, different kinds of weapons," he said, "We totally didn't see the big, huge counteroffensive from Russia... They didn't have success."

"We need help now": Zelenskyy says Russian offensive looming
But Zelenskyy acknowledged that the invading Russian troops and their seemingly endless supply of missiles and shells had destroyed "some villages."

"We didn't have rounds, artillery rounds, a lot of different things," he said, stressing that while his troops have managed to keep the Russians largely at bay up to now, they're not prepared to defend against another major Russian offensive expected in the coming months. That, he said, was expected around the end of May or in June he said.

Enceladus skrev: ↑fredag 29 mars 2024 16:54

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑fredag 29 mars 2024 8:13 Ja, Enceladus-kollektivet verkar ha fastnat i den högerextrema floskeln "godhetssignalera". Det säger en hel del om Enceladus-kollektivet, men eftersom jag inte ägnar mig åt personangrepp så ska jag inte utveckla den tanken.

Polen verkar i alla fall ha tröttnat på att godhetssignalera när Ryssland gör raka motsatsen:

Intermarium 24 skrev:The Polish President has just signed a law regarding the suspension of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, signed in Paris on November 19, 1990.

[...]

"This suspension will mean that the Republic of Poland, like other countries that choose to do so, will no longer be obliged to fulfill the Treaty's provisions while remaining formally bound by its terms. The suspension is to be indefinite. The law comes into force on the day following its announcement," the statement emphasized.

In 2007, Vladimir Putin signed a decree suspending Russia's participation in the Treaty; on November 7, 2023, he announced that Russia completely ceased to recognize this Treaty.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑fredag 22 mars 2024 9:12 Även torsdagens attack mot Kiev verkar ha varit ett försöksanfall för att testa det ukrainska luftförsvaret. Som en bieffekt tömmer man också luftförsvaret på ammunition. Denna gång använde de ryska angriparna mycket kryssningsmissiler, förmodligen vill man spara de ballistiska misslerna till senare, då man tror att det ukrainska luftförsvaret har degraderats.

Militarnyi skrev:According to the Minister, although VAB APCs are old equipment, they are still serviceable and can benefit Ukraine.

Lecornu added that hundreds of vehicles will be transferred to the Ukrainian side in 2024 and early 2025.

[...]

In response to a request to help strengthen air defense, France will also provide Ukraine with a batch of Aster 30 anti-aircraft missiles for SAMP/T air defense systems.

“We are also developing remote-controlled munitions in a very short time to deliver them to Ukrainians this summer,” the French Defense Minister added. At the same time, Sébastien Lecornu did not specify what kind of ammunition he was talking about.

Augsburger Allgemeine skrev:Omkring 600 Taurus-kryssningsmissiler har byggts för den tyska försvarsmakten vid MBDA:s anläggning i Schrobenhausen, Oberbayern.

Gottschild: Produktionslinjen för Taurus, testutrustningen och motsvarande hallar är fortfarande tillgängliga. Vi skulle kunna starta tillverkningen av Taurus när som helst. Men vi skulle behöva en ny order för dessa vapen.

[...]

När kommer de första Patriot-missilerna att tillverkas i Schrobenhausen?

Gottschild: Kontraktet har undertecknats. Den slutliga tillverkningen av missilerna kommer att ske i Schrobenhausen. Vi planerar för närvarande byggandet av produktionsanläggningen för motorn i Aschau. Vi kommer att leverera de första Patriot-missilerna inom tre år.

[...]

Men Tyskland har beställt amerikanska F-35-smygbombplan för att ersätta en del av Tornadoflygplansflottan och har också beställt amerikanska vapen för att följa med dem. Har det irriterat dig?

Gottschild: Jag beklagar att Tyskland bara har beställt amerikanska vapen till F-35, d.v.s. att man tar paketet som det är. I andra länder kommer F-35 att flyga med vapen som vår Meteor-missil, som kan användas för att bekämpa hot i luften. MBDA Tyskland är en del av den europeiska MBDA-gruppen, som i sin tur är ett konsortium bestående av Airbus, det brittiska företaget BAE Systems och det italienska företaget Leonardo. Vi är det enda europeiska missilföretaget som kan konkurrera med amerikanerna på den internationella marknaden för missilsystem.

Jürgen Nauditt skrev:The Taurus manufacturer has announced the cessation of missile production due to a lack of defense orders.

There has been war for two years and Field Marshal Olaf Scholz has not ordered any more Taurus.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑måndag 25 mars 2024 16:01 Att angripa en energiproduktionsanläggning av det här slaget har betydande likheter med att angripa ett raffinaderi (raffinaderier har dessutom ofta egna sådana anläggningar, dels för att ta vara på spillprodukter från raffineringen och dels för att skapa processvärme).

Det räcker alltså egentligen med att sätta eld på bränsleupplaget.

OSINTtechnical skrev:Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian forces appear to have fielded a new unknown heavyweight FPV munition capable of causing significant damage, seen here dismantling Russian positions.

Enceladus skrev: ↑söndag 31 mars 2024 12:24

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑fredag 22 mars 2024 9:12 Även torsdagens attack mot Kiev verkar ha varit ett försöksanfall för att testa det ukrainska luftförsvaret. Som en bieffekt tömmer man också luftförsvaret på ammunition. Denna gång använde de ryska angriparna mycket kryssningsmissiler, förmodligen vill man spara de ballistiska misslerna till senare, då man tror att det ukrainska luftförsvaret har degraderats.

Lecornu: France will supply Ukraine with hundreds of armored vehicles and Aster missiles

Militarnyi skrev:According to the Minister, although VAB APCs are old equipment, they are still serviceable and can benefit Ukraine.

Lecornu added that hundreds of vehicles will be transferred to the Ukrainian side in 2024 and early 2025.

[...]

In response to a request to help strengthen air defense, France will also provide Ukraine with a batch of Aster 30 anti-aircraft missiles for SAMP/T air defense systems.

“We are also developing remote-controlled munitions in a very short time to deliver them to Ukrainians this summer,” the French Defense Minister added. At the same time, Sébastien Lecornu did not specify what kind of ammunition he was talking about.

Lyckligtvis får Ukraina ständigt nya leveranser. Till skillnad från Patriot är SAMP/T oberoende av USA[/url]:

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑tisdag 19 mars 2024 9:41 The Atlantic inleder sin artikel med

Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky got unusually testy over the failure of the United States to deliver anti-missile and anti-drone systems. On March 2, a strike in Odesa had killed 12 people, five of them children. “The world has enough missile-defense systems,” he said. Debates over funding have kept those systems from being delivered. “Delaying the supply of weapons to Ukraine, missile-defense systems to protect our people, leads, unfortunately, to such losses.”

Det är begripligt att Zelenskyj säger så, men det är ont om högkvalificerade LV-system i västvärlden. USA och Nato-länderna skulle behöva ta djupa tag i sina arsenaler för att förse Ukraina med de minst 10 system som skulle behövas, och det är man inte villig att göra. Återstår nytillverkning och Ukrainas partnerländer kunde för länge sedan ha lagt order på Patriot eller SAMP/T hos Raytheon eller Eurosam. Men det görs inte heller, och här tycker sig Vladimir Vladimirovitj ha hittat en lucka.

Enceladus skrev: ↑söndag 31 mars 2024 12:24

Augsburger Allgemeine skrev: Men Tyskland har beställt amerikanska F-35-smygbombplan för att ersätta en del av Tornadoflygplansflottan och har också beställt amerikanska vapen för att följa med dem. Har det irriterat dig?

Gottschild: Jag beklagar att Tyskland bara har beställt amerikanska vapen till F-35, d.v.s. att man tar paketet som det är. I andra länder kommer F-35 att flyga med vapen som vår Meteor-missil, som kan användas för att bekämpa hot i luften. MBDA Tyskland är en del av den europeiska MBDA-gruppen, som i sin tur är ett konsortium bestående av Airbus, det brittiska företaget BAE Systems och det italienska företaget Leonardo. Vi är det enda europeiska missilföretaget som kan konkurrera med amerikanerna på den internationella marknaden för missilsystem.

Notera att Thomas Gottschild är vd för MBDA Tyskland.

Enceladus skrev: ↑söndag 31 mars 2024 12:24

Militarnyi skrev:According to the Minister, although VAB APCs are old equipment, they are still serviceable and can benefit Ukraine.
“We are also developing remote-controlled munitions in a very short time to deliver them to Ukrainians this summer,” the French Defense Minister added. At the same time, Sébastien Lecornu did not specify what kind of ammunition he was talking about.

EDR Online skrev:On Friday, June 16th, three days before the inauguration of the 54th edition of the Paris Air Show, the French AID (Agence Innovation Défense, or Defence Innovation Agency) assigned to a team of companies made by Nexter Arrowtech, part of KNDS, EOS Technologie and Traak, a development contract for a remotely operated munition.
France launched a gap-filler programme to acquire Switchblade loitering munitions from the United States, however the French Ministry of the Armed Forces aim is to provide its forces with a sovereign system, fully developed and produced in France.

Hence the launch of the Larinae call for projects which aimed at providing the Armée de Terre, the French land forces, with a medium-range antitank weapon, defined as a “ remotely operated munition ”. EDR On-Line understood the system will be of course a loitering munition, but will also be recoverable by parachute, and might even be used in a reconnaissance-only mode without the warhead, which makes it in fact a multi-mission tool.

Army Technology skrev:Larinae is a medium-range remotely operated munition system being developed in parallel for the French army by two consortia of companies as part of the Larinae project.
The project intends to provide a drone equipped with an anti-tank warhead, which is currently lacking in the French military’s arsenal.

The Directorate General of Armaments and the French Defence Innovation Agency (AID) called for the Larinae project to carry out research on a low-cost system for countering long-range targets, particularly those at more than 50km, in May 2022.
In June 2023, the AID selected a consortium led by MBDA, a European defence company, and a consortium led by weapons manufacturer NEXTER Arrowtech, to develop systems capable of managing armoured targets. Both projects include a pyrotechnic charge.

The first demonstrator is expected to be presented at the end of 2024. The projects will support the Ministry of the Armed Forces to be prepared for the acquisition of new weapons.

Enceladus skrev: ↑söndag 31 mars 2024 12:24 Enligt uppgifter på sociala medier framhålls att Ukrainas nya FPV-drönare har fått större sprängkraft:

OSINTtechnical skrev:Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian forces appear to have fielded a new unknown heavyweight FPV munition capable of causing significant damage, seen here dismantling Russian positions.

Signaturen spekulerar i om de kan ha termobariska laddningar. Är detta ett tidigt aprilskämt? Det är väl mer sannolikt att Hammer spökar igen...

RUSI skrev:Wars of attrition are won by economies enabling mass mobilisation of militaries via their industrial sectors. Armies expand rapidly during such a conflict, requiring massive quantities of armoured vehicles, drones, electronic products, and other combat equipment. Because high-end weaponry is very complex to manufacture and consumes vast resources, a high-low mixture of forces and weapons is imperative in order to win.

High-end weapons have exceptional performance but are difficult to manufacture, especially when needed to arm a rapidly mobilised army subjected to a high rate of attrition. For example, during the Second World War German Panzers were superb tanks, but using approximately the same production resources, the Soviets rolled out eight T-34s for every German Panzer. The difference in performance did not justify the numerical disparity in production. High-end weapons also require high-end troops. These take significant time to train – time which is unavailable in a war with high attrition rates.

It is easier and faster to produce large numbers of cheap weapons and munitions, especially if their subcomponents are interchangeable with civilian goods, ensuring mass quantity without the expansion of production lines. New recruits also absorb simpler weapons faster, allowing rapid generation of new formations or the reconstitution of existing ones.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑onsdag 06 mars 2024 11:51 Ryssarna satsar som synes stenhårt på detta vapen, vilket understryker Ukrainas behov av (automatkanon)system för att bekämpa dem på ett (kostnads)effektivt sätt.

Reuters skrev:A Ukrainian drone struck Russia's third largest oil refinery on Tuesday about 1,300 km (800 miles) from the front lines, hitting a unit that processes about 155,000 barrels of crude per day though an industry source said the damage was not significant.

[...]

Pictures from the scene indicated the drone hit the primary refining unit, CDU-7, at the refinery, though the drone appears to have not done serious damage.

[...]

Another Ukrainian intelligence source said Ukrainian-made drones also hit a Russian plant producing long-range "Shahed" attack drones, causing "significant damage".

Special Kherson Cat skrev:/1. Tonight, Ukrainian kamikaze drones of a new model attacked the Shahed 136 production plant in Russia, as well as the Nizhnekamsk oil refinery. Both are located more than 1100km from the frontline.

[...]

/4. It’s noticeable that during this attack drones of a new model were used. Nothing is known about its characteristics besides the fact that it has a range which is at least couple hundreds kilometers more than the maximum range of the Ukrainian kamikaze “Lyutyi”, which were used to attack Russian targets within a distance of up to 1000 km.

/5. The only thing that is noted is that the new Kamikaze Drone somewhat looks like Aeroprakt A-22, Ukrainian two-seat, high-wing, tricycle landing gear ultralight aircraft. Which possibly became the basis for a new kamikaze drone.

Lenta.ru skrev:Vi lider nästan 90 procent av våra förluster på grund av fiendens "fåglar".

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 02 april 2024 15:40

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑onsdag 06 mars 2024 11:51 Ryssarna satsar som synes stenhårt på detta vapen, vilket understryker Ukrainas behov av (automatkanon)system för att bekämpa dem på ett (kostnads)effektivt sätt.

Ukrainian drone hits Russia's third biggest refinery, damage not critical

Reuters skrev:A Ukrainian drone struck Russia's third largest oil refinery on Tuesday about 1,300 km (800 miles) from the front lines, hitting a unit that processes about 155,000 barrels of crude per day though an industry source said the damage was not significant.

[...]

Pictures from the scene indicated the drone hit the primary refining unit, CDU-7, at the refinery, though the drone appears to have not done serious damage.

[...]

Another Ukrainian intelligence source said Ukrainian-made drones also hit a Russian plant producing long-range "Shahed" attack drones, causing "significant damage".

Ukraina har attackerat flera industriområden i Tatarstan. Precis som Mathias Rust lyckades ]de ukrainska drönarna ta sig förbi det ryska luftförsvaret obehindrat:

Enceladus skrev: ↑söndag 31 mars 2024 12:24 Ryssland experimenterar däremot med FPV-drönare som har trådbunden kommunikationslänk. Elektronisk krigföring i all ära, men hur praktiskt är konceptet?

The War Zone skrev:Russian forces in Ukraine appear to now be using so-called first-person view kamikaze drones controlled via a physical fiber optic line rather than a wireless data link. This configuration offers a control method that is immune to radiofrequency electronic warfare, but that also imposes certain limitations on how the system can be employed.

Serhii Flesh (also sometimes written Serhiy Flesh), a Ukrainian servicemember who has been cited as an expert in "radio technologies," first posted pictures on the Telegram online messaging service of the apparent 'wire-guided' first-person view (FPV) drone yesterday. Where or when it was recovered is unclear. Flesh said he turned the drone over to the Birds of Magyar, a relatively well-known Ukrainian drone unit, for further analysis.

[...]

This is not a new concept, broadly, either. Wire-guided anti-tank missiles have been in service around the world for decades now and many current-generation designs, such as some of Israel's Spike family, use fiber optic cables. The ubiquitous American-made TOW missile has that feature directly in its name: Tube-launched, Optically-tracked, Wire-guided.

Special Kherson Cat skrev:Ukrainian Ratel S ground kamikaze drone used to target the bridge on the Bakhmut front

The War Zone skrev:One of Israel's prized Sa'ar 6 class corvettes, the country's most advanced warship, came very close to being struck by a long-range one-way attack drone that was launched from Iraq. The ship was sitting docked in Eilat, on the Gulf of Aqaba, when the drone came screaming in, impacting a large warehouse building on the pier beside it.

After the drone hit Eilat, there was a separate and unprecedented Israeli airstrike on a building next to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria, which killed top Iranian commanders in the region. We are now likely to see many more of these highly targeted long-range attacks from Iranian proxies in the hours and days to come.

Forbes skrev:The market is changing fast. While Mavic-type consumer quadcopters were the main bombers just a few months ago, now most bomb drops are by FPV-type drones, which can deliver much heavier munitions.

“Carriers are becoming larger and larger, “says the spokesman. “And the fleet of drone planes is developing very rapidly.”

Economies of scale drive traditional munition production, but Steel Hornets work with small batches. They are effectively a retail operation, which is why a comparison with Amazon is apt. And rather than relying on a few huge suppliers with long lead times for munitions – hence the mad scramble to acquire artillery ammunition — a collection of small startups like Steel Hornets could meet Ukraine’s demand for millions of drone munitions. Getting artillery shells from other countries may still be a problem, but these are munitions that can be made locally with minimal capital expenditure.

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 02 april 2024 15:40

Special Kherson Cat skrev:/1. Tonight, Ukrainian kamikaze drones of a new model attacked the Shahed 136 production plant in Russia, as well as the Nizhnekamsk oil refinery. Both are located more than 1100km from the frontline.

[...]

/4. It’s noticeable that during this attack drones of a new model were used. Nothing is known about its characteristics besides the fact that it has a range which is at least couple hundreds kilometers more than the maximum range of the Ukrainian kamikaze “Lyutyi”, which were used to attack Russian targets within a distance of up to 1000 km.

/5. The only thing that is noted is that the new Kamikaze Drone somewhat looks like Aeroprakt A-22, Ukrainian two-seat, high-wing, tricycle landing gear ultralight aircraft. Which possibly became the basis for a new kamikaze drone.

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 02 april 2024 15:40 Kan drönare ersätta både artillerigranater och missiler!?

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 02 april 2024 17:01 Steel Hornets: Inside Ukraine’s Amazon For Drone Bombs

Forbes skrev:The market is changing fast. While Mavic-type consumer quadcopters were the main bombers just a few months ago, now most bomb drops are by FPV-type drones, which can deliver much heavier munitions.

“Carriers are becoming larger and larger, “says the spokesman. “And the fleet of drone planes is developing very rapidly.”

Economies of scale drive traditional munition production, but Steel Hornets work with small batches. They are effectively a retail operation, which is why a comparison with Amazon is apt. And rather than relying on a few huge suppliers with long lead times for munitions – hence the mad scramble to acquire artillery ammunition — a collection of small startups like Steel Hornets could meet Ukraine’s demand for millions of drone munitions. Getting artillery shells from other countries may still be a problem, but these are munitions that can be made locally with minimal capital expenditure.

Det gäller att hänga med i svängarna! Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 15 123 enheter, varav 2 878 stridsvagnar. Som sagt, drönare orsakar det mesta!

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 02 april 2024 17:01

Enceladus skrev: ↑söndag 31 mars 2024 12:24 Ryssland experimenterar däremot med FPV-drönare som har trådbunden kommunikationslänk. Elektronisk krigföring i all ära, men hur praktiskt är konceptet?

Russia Now Looks To Be Using Wire-Guided Kamikaze Drones In Ukraine

The War Zone skrev:Russian forces in Ukraine appear to now be using so-called first-person view kamikaze drones controlled via a physical fiber optic line rather than a wireless data link. This configuration offers a control method that is immune to radiofrequency electronic warfare, but that also imposes certain limitations on how the system can be employed.

Serhii Flesh (also sometimes written Serhiy Flesh), a Ukrainian servicemember who has been cited as an expert in "radio technologies," first posted pictures on the Telegram online messaging service of the apparent 'wire-guided' first-person view (FPV) drone yesterday. Where or when it was recovered is unclear. Flesh said he turned the drone over to the Birds of Magyar, a relatively well-known Ukrainian drone unit, for further analysis.

[...]

This is not a new concept, broadly, either. Wire-guided anti-tank missiles have been in service around the world for decades now and many current-generation designs, such as some of Israel's Spike family, use fiber optic cables. The ubiquitous American-made TOW missile has that feature directly in its name: Tube-launched, Optically-tracked, Wire-guided.

The War Zone har naturligtvis en artikel om detta experiment. Om konceptet lämpar sig för pansarvärnsrobotar så kan det väl också göra det för FPV-drönare?