Forum - Spårvägssällskapet.se

Enceladus skrev: ↑onsdag 19 juli 2023 13:52

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑tisdag 06 juni 2023 22:38 Det där med legitima mål har jag förklarat tidigare, och det är ju bara tomma hot från rysk sidan, i den meningen att all militär materiel och militära installationer är sådana - till skillnad från ex.vis dammar!

Is This the End of the Road for the Ukraine Grain Deal?

Carnegie Politika skrev:Since then, about 32 million tons of grain worth $8–9 billion has left Ukraine for countries including China, Spain, and Türkiye. The deal has caused global food prices to fall by 11.6 percent, according to the UN Food Price Index. For Kyiv, meanwhile, the agreement isn’t just a key source of hard currency revenues; it also frees up Ukrainian grain silos for the new harvest, preventing domestic prices from increasing.

[...]

Despite these obstacles, Russia still managed to supply 60 million tons of grain to foreign markets this agricultural year (July 2022–June 2023) and earn over $41 billion from doing so. Forecasts for the new crop and export earnings from it are no less optimistic: the country still has record grain stocks, and exporters have adapted to the restrictions. Grain is also actively being exported from the territories Russia has annexed from Ukraine.

[...]

In agreeing to the grain deal, the Kremlin underestimated how much Russia’s dependence on China and Türkiye has grown. As the main recipient of grain exported under the agreement, China even included the deal as a separate item in its peace plan for Ukraine. Moscow does not want to sour relations with a key partner that has become the largest buyer of Russian hydrocarbons and the biggest seller of sanctioned goods to the Russian market.

[...]

One key issue that is still outstanding is the safety of Ukrainian port infrastructure. One year ago—the day after the signing of the deal in Istanbul—Russia launched a missile attack on the port of Odesa. Moscow is unlikely to progress to direct attacks on grain carriers right now, but it may begin to consider Ukrainian ports legitimate targets.

Är Ukrainas infrastruktur för spannmålsexport ett "legitimt mål"? Ett tomt hot var det i alla fall inte!

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑tisdag 06 juni 2023 22:38

Enceladus skrev: ↑måndag 05 juni 2023 15:23 Retired RAAF fighter jets could be sent to Ukraine

The Australian Financial Review skrev:Australia, the US and Ukraine are discussing sending 41 Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 Hornets to Kyiv helping fulfil part of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for fighter jets, rather than sending them to the scrapheap as planned.

[...]

With their twin engines, the Hornets have a much greater chance of survivability if they were damaged. A pilot can land on one engine, and Ukraine cannot afford to lose pilots. And the Hornets are better suited than other fourth-gen jets to the rougher airfields of Ukraine.

Enligt nya uppgifter kan Australien skicka sina gamla Hornet-plan till Ukraina. Men USA och Nato är väl byxrädda för att dessa blir legitima mål.

Det där med legitima mål har jag förklarat tidigare, och det är ju bara tomma hot från rysk sidan, i den meningen att all militär materiel och militära installationer är sådana - till skillnad från ex.vis dammar! Däremot är möjligheterna att skydda ukrainska flygbaser mot ryska luftangrepp ett reellt problem som måste hanteras. Oron för en ev. eskalation torde däremot ha dämpats åtskilligt nu, om man säger så. Som jag skrev tidigare som har Putin snart slut på röda linjer.

Enceladus skrev: ↑onsdag 19 juli 2023 13:52 Är Ukrainas infrastruktur för spannmålsexport ett "legitimt mål"? Ett tomt hot var det i alla fall inte!

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 20 juli 2023 10:28 Som påbröd(!) på detta har ju ryssarna deklarerat en de facto blockad av all sjöfart till och från ukrainska hamnar:

Al Jazeera skrev:In response to threats from Moscow, Kyiv has warned that all ships calling at Russian-controlled ports in the Black Sea “may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military cargo with all the relevant risks”.

Anadolu Agency skrev:“I think it is important that from Latin America we say it clearly: what is happening in Ukraine is an unacceptable war of imperial aggression in which international law is violated. I understand that the joint declaration is blocked because some do not want to say that it is a war against Ukraine,” said Boric.

[...]

“Today it is Ukraine but tomorrow it could be any of us. In this we cannot doubt for complacency that can be had at one time or another with any leader. It doesn't matter if the president of a country likes or dislikes it, the important thing is respect for international law,” he said.

Iran International skrev:A more plausible explanation was given by aviation expert and author Babak Taghvaee, who said the obstacle is Russia's refusal to transfer crucial technology for producing Su-35 parts in Iran and providing knowledge for domestic maintenance for the next 30 years.

He cited Commander of the Iranian Army’s Air Force Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi as telling his sources that "for now, the General Staff of the Armed Forces has opposed procurement of Su-35SE multirole fighter jets from Russia as Russian government refuses to transfer technology for production of their parts in Iran as well as to provide the knowledge for maintaining the aircraft domestically for the next 30 years."

Taghvaee added that Russians want to sell only 25 Su-35Es previously ordered by Egypt without proper maintenance, weapons, spare part support and simulators.

Middle East Eye skrev:Therefore, the high political and diplomatic costs of supporting Russia in the Ukraine conflict may have caused Iran to reconsider its Ukraine policy.

I learned from an informed source in Tehran that Iran wants to revise its position in Ukraine. Based on senior Iranian officials' reactions, it is evident that Russia has lost its power and strength for a substantial role in international and bilateral economic and security equations.

POLITICO skrev:Moore dropped a tantalizing clue about discord inside Iran’s secretive regime. While Iran has been a key supporter of Putin’s invasion, providing drones that have terrorized Ukrainian troops and cities, the MI6 boss said that the provision of drones was prompting arguments among Iran’s leaders.

“Iran’s decision to supply Russia with the suicide drones that mete out random destruction to Ukraine’s cities has provoked internal quarrels at the highest level of the regime in Tehran,” he said in prepared remarks. “Iran has chosen presumably to earn cash as well as probably to receive some military know-how in return for their support for the Russians.”

Enceladus skrev: ↑torsdag 20 juli 2023 22:11

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 20 juli 2023 10:28 Som påbröd(!) på detta har ju ryssarna deklarerat en de facto blockad av all sjöfart till och från ukrainska hamnar:

Ukraina svarar med samma mynt: Russia and Ukraine warn each other travelling ships part of war

Al Jazeera skrev:In response to threats from Moscow, Kyiv has warned that all ships calling at Russian-controlled ports in the Black Sea “may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military cargo with all the relevant risks”.

Enceladus skrev: ↑torsdag 20 juli 2023 23:45 Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine is ... something

Washington Post skrev:Former president Donald Trump’s interview with Fox News on Sunday commenced an all-out freakout among the GOP’s Ukraine funding skeptics. They interpreted his comments as suddenly coming out in favor of potentially sending Ukraine even more than the Biden administration has.

[...]

TRUMP: I would tell Zelensky: No more. You got to make a deal. I would tell Putin: If you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give them a lot. We’re going to give them more than they ever got, if we have to.

Kan Putin ens lita på Trump?

DeSantis’s political action committee skrev:Trump says he will threaten Russia by telling Putin that America will give Ukraine's "honorable" President Zelenskyy "a lot" of weapons and money.

Trump says "we're going to give them more than they ever got" from Biden "if we have to."

- I would tell Putin: You got to settle
- I would tell Zelensky: You got to settle
- I would tell one: You got to load up with money
- I'll tell the other: You're not gonna get any money
- I would get a settlement in 24 hours.

verb
1.
resolve or reach an agreement about (an argument or problem).
"the unions have settled their year-long dispute with Hollywood producers"
2.
pay (a debt or account).
"his bill was settled by charge card"

Enceladus skrev: ↑söndag 25 juni 2023 23:56 Nationalisten Girkin anade vad som skulle hända! Nu kräver han att Putin avgår. Tydligen kan Putin kritiseras öppet.

Reuters skrev:Prominent Russian nationalist Igor Girkin, who had accused President Vladimir Putin and army leaders of not prosecuting the war in Ukraine harshly or effectively enough, was detained in Moscow on Friday on charges of inciting extremism.

The move suggests authorities have wearied of his criticism of what they call Russia's "special military operation", and perhaps that of other loud nationalist voices who had appeared to have exceptional licence to deride the war effort.

[...]

Girkin, a former battlefield commander also known as Igor Strelkov, helped Russia annex Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and then organise pro-Russian militias who wrested part of eastern Ukraine out of Kyiv's control.

He was also handed a life sentence in absentia by a Dutch court in 2022 for his alleged role in the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014, with the loss of 298 passengers and crew.

Newsweek skrev:According to RBC, Girkin's detention was carried out at the request of a former member of the notorious paramilitary outfit the Wagner Group, which is headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin. This couldn't immediately be verified by Newsweek.

[...]

Days earlier, Girkin said Russia would not survive another presidential term by Putin, changing tack from criticizing the Russian president's military decisions to turning to the issue of his leadership of the country in general.

"The country will not survive another six years of this cowardly mediocrity in power," Girkin said on Tuesday.

[...]

Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and founder of R.Politik. Reality of Russian Politics, a political analysis firm, said Girkin's detention is a moment many within the siloviki (an elite group of Russian businessmen and leaders) have "eagerly awaited."

"Strelkov had overstepped all conceivable boundaries a long time ago, sparking the desire among security forces—from the FSB to military chiefs—to apprehend him," she tweeted, noting that the complaint came from a former commander of the Wagner Group.

DN skrev:Den turkiska åklagaren vill att Paludan ska gripas och förhöras om sin roll i koranbränningen som skedde i Stockholm den 21 januari. Arresteringsordern kommer dock bara verkställas om Paludan rör sig inom Turkiets gränser, skriver danska TV2.

Rasmus Paludan har dubbelt medborgarskap, danskt och svenskt. När DN når honom uppger han att han befinner sig i ett skyddat boende i Danmark, på grund av hotbilden efter hans senaste koranbränning i Sverige den 21 januari i år och veckan efter utanför turkiska ambassaden i Köpenhamn.

[...]

– Nej. Detta rör saker som hänt i Sverige och svensk åklagare har för flera månader sedan tagit beslut att min manifestation den 21 januari inte var olaglig i Sverige. Att Turkiet vill utreda vad de tycker är emot turkisk lag i Sverige, är ganska skrattretande. Och nej, jag har inga planer på att åka till Turkiet, säger han.

Reuters skrev:Russia’s Central Bank hiked interest rates on Friday for the first time in 16 months, as Moscow’s spending on its invasion of Ukraine and sharp falls in the value of the ruble have triggered fresh concerns over inflation.

The regulator raised its key rate from 7.5% to 8.5%, it said in a statement.

[...]

But that extra spending, combined with the effects of Western sanctions and a collapse in Russian energy sales to Europe, have pushed the Kremlin into a $28 billion deficit in the first half of 2023.

The ruble has fallen from a high of 54 against the U.S. dollar last June to 91 on Friday.

Carnegie Politika skrev:The Belarusian leader believes his country may be attacked in one form or another if the fear of a possible response from the country’s main ally, Russia, weakens in the West. He is therefore seriously concerned by the Kremlin’s lackluster reaction to cross-border attacks on the Belgorod region and the drone strikes in Moscow. This is why his speeches are littered with defiant promises to fight off any invasion with the help of Russia.

The less successful the Russian army appears on the front lines, the less credible Belarus’s deterrent. For this reason, Lukashenko is only too pleased to start hosting Russian tactical nuclear weapons. Control over the weapons and the initiative to deploy them there clearly belong to the Kremlin: Putin would not have entertained Lukashenko’s requests on such an important matter if he himself did not want to test the West with an escalation. But for the Belarusian leader, the placement of nuclear weapons in Belarus is still another security guarantee.

In a similar vein, Lukashenko has framed the redeployment of Wagner to Belarus as another deterrent for the West, even though it is still unclear how many mercenaries will take advantage of his offer. Soon after the abortive mutiny, the Belarusian leader stated that Wagner troops would rise to protect “Minsk’s interests,” should Belarus come under attack. Lukashenko is apparently eager to use any opportunity to scare away his opponents, even if he is not actually in control of the military capabilities he invokes in his threats.

Reuters skrev:The group's chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was shown in a video on Wednesday saying his fighters would take no further part in the Ukraine war for now but ordering them to gather their strength for Africa.

Carnegie Politika skrev:Since Georgia is the shortest land bridge between the EU and China, Brussels has upped its involvement in the South Caucasus through newly signed gas and infrastructure projects with Azerbaijan and Georgia. As a result, Georgia has gained significantly greater geopolitical leverage than it had before the war in Ukraine. The Georgian government may also be using the prospect of rapprochement with Russia as a negotiating tactic when dealing with hesitant Western partners.

Yet portraying Georgia as becoming a pro-Russian country also misses the point. Tbilisi believes Russia will be mired in Ukraine for years, if not decades. Amid this significant distraction, Russia’s power has diminished in the South Caucasus, giving other actors—chiefly Turkey and Iran—greater space for maneuver. The invasion of Ukraine has ended the post-Soviet era and ushered in the effective end of exclusive Russian dominance in the South Caucasus.

[...]

For the moment, Georgia’s best bet is to navigate between increasingly dangerous Russia and the West, which is gradually expanding eastward, but not quickly enough to engulf geographically distant Georgia before it will be threatened by Russia once again.

Iran International skrev:According to Semafor’s sources, the inclusion of the fourth American in the talks may prompt Tehran to raise its demands.

[...]

In the past decade, Iran's Revolutionary Guard have arrested dozens of dual nationals and foreigners, mostly on unproven allegations of espionage and breach of security, in what human rights organizations have said is essentially hostage taking to extract concessions from Western governments.

[...]

Tehran denies any policy of hostage taking and insists all foreigners are tried legally. However, it has frequently shown readiness for prisoner exchanges and receiving monetary payments and participated in swaps in the past.

[...]

The latest case was in June when two Iranian-Austrian citizens named Kamran Qaderi and Masoud Mosaheb and a Danish individual were released in the framework of a recent prisoner exchange agreement with Belgium mediated by Oman. A week earlier, Olivier Vandecasteele, a Belgian aid worker, returned to his country in exchange for the release of Assadollah Asadi, an Iranian agent disguised as a diplomat in Europe who was convicted of a terror plot in France in 2018.

Enceladus skrev: ↑lördag 22 juli 2023 0:40 Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Could Lukashenko Accidentally Manifest an Attack on Belarus?

The WarZone skrev:During a meeting of the Russian Security Council, President Vladimir Putin suggested that Poland is seeking to occupy western Ukraine and stage an attack on Belarus.

He said that a well-organized, well-equipped “so-called Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian" regular military unit will be “used for operations in Ukraine, including to allegedly ensure the security of today’s Western Ukraine.”

But Poland's goal goes far behind mere security for Ukraine, Putin said.

Their aim should be called "by [its] true name, the subsequent occupation of these territories," the Russian leader said. "The outlook is clear: in the event Polish forces enter, say, Lviv or other Ukrainian territories, they will stay there, and they will stay there for good."

Putin also issued a veiled threat at Poland, raising the history of how the Soviet Union saved much of that nation from the Nazis during World War II.

"I would also like to remind you what Poland’s aggressive policy led to," he said during a meeting Friday of the Russian Security Council. "It led to the national tragedy of 1939, when Poland’s Western allies threw it to the German wolf, the German miliary machine. Poland actually lost its independence and statehood, which were only restored thanks in a large measure to the Soviet Union. It was also thanks to the Soviet Union and thanks to Stalin’s position that Poland acquired substantial territory in the west, German territory."

“It is a fact that Poland’s western lands are a gift from Stalin," Putin added. "Have our Warsaw friends forgotten this? We will remind them.”

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑fredag 21 juli 2023 17:46 Att Putin är försvagad kan vi nog vara överens om, och det gör honom paradoxalt nog farligare, oavsett hur han vill framställa sig själv.

News24 skrev:The South African government has conceded that it failed to execute its international responsibilities by failing to issue a warrant for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin if he enters the country.

On Friday, the Gauteng High Court in Pretoria confirmed that the justice department had finally sent the Putin arrest warrant to National Director of Public Prosecutions (NDPP) Shamila Batohi on Monday.

[...]

But after the government announced that Putin would not travel to South Africa, the DA asked the court to compel it to execute the arrest warrant any time the Russian president travels to the country.

The Kyiv Independent skrev:Demchenko said the number of Wagner men in Belarus was initially in the hundreds, but mercenaries kept arriving. Nine Wagner columns arrived to Belarus so far, after Yevgeniy Prigozhin's abortive mutiny against the Kremlin.

Prigozhin reportedly told his mercenaries that he will train the Belarusian army.

Ukrainian News skrev:The detention of the former leader of militants and recognized by the court international criminal Igor Girkin may infuriate the community of Russian military bloggers and some military. It was reported on Twitter by the Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom.

ChrisO_wiki skrev:5/ The crackdown may go further than Girkin, who is likely to have been seen as a more serious security threat after the Wagner mutiny. Several other people are mentioned in the report, which says they "need to be persuaded to stop whipping up critical hysteria". They include:

6/ Andrei Kartapolov and Andrei Gurulev, United Russia State Duma deputies;
Oleg Tsaryov, the former "speaker of the Novorossiya parliament"
Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of RT

7/ Mikhail Delyagin, 'A Just Russia – For Truth' State Duma deputy, who is accused of saying that the ruble might devalue
Vladimir Solovyov, who is said to host a nightly "gang rape of the authorities" on his show on the Russia-1 channel

Enceladus skrev: ↑lördag 22 juli 2023 15:37 Simonyan och Solovyov är två av de största rösterna i ryska statliga medier!

Reuters skrev:Novatek's rise towards the coveted top spot underlines how much the Ukraine conflict has disrupted Russia's and the world's energy industry as Europe turns to LNG and away from Gazprom's network of pipelines that dominated European supply for decades.

[...]

The leaderships of both Novatek and Gazprom have close ties with President Vladimir Putin and have publicly clashed over Novatek's rising profile on the European gas market, which used to account for two thirds of Gazprom's total gas sales.

Alexei Miller, Gazprom's CEO, has been an ally of Putin since they worked together in the early 1990s in the mayor's office in St Petersburg, Russia's former imperial capital.

[...]

Gennady Timchenko, also a long-time ally of Putin, resigned from Novatek's board in March 2022 after he was targeted by sanctions.

[...]

Timchenko had long challenged Gazprom's monopoly on Russian gas exports, saying in 2012 that Europeans wanted to have an alternative to Gazprom.

The New York Times skrev:Although the mercury was lower elsewhere in the country, the misery has still been great. Iranians have few ways to cope: The government’s longstanding mishandling of water resources has made taps across the country run salty or dry, experts say, while Iran’s stalled economy and double-digit inflation have deepened poverty that puts indoor jobs and air-conditioning out of reach for many.

Iran suffers from what Kaveh Madani, a United Nations water expert who formerly served as deputy head of Iran’s environmental ministry, calls “water bankruptcy,” in which, he said, misguided policies promoting agriculture and development have led water consumption to outstrip supply for so long that there is no way to reverse the depletion.

As groundwater and reservoirs dry up, droughts intensify and climate change pushes temperatures higher. Iranians in rural areas are increasingly unable to afford the trucked-in or store-bought water on which they must rely. Water shortages fueled protests in the historic city of Isfahan and in Khuzestan Province in 2021, and more discontent with the government is brewing over its failure to address the blistering heat.

Business Insider skrev:Based on his own calculations, Hanke gauged the Russia's annual rate of consumer-price increases at an eye-watering 60%, far above the 3.6% level most recently reported by the Bank of Russia.

"According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Russian inflation expectations jumped to 11.1% in July. Today I measure inflation at 60%/yr, ~5.5x the central bank's data point. The expectations appear to be way too optimistic," the economist said in a tweet.

Business Insider skrev:Insider's Phil Rosen reported that car sales in Moscow have tanked by nearly 75% since the Ukraine war broke out. The decline has been fueled by a mix of three factors: soaring prices, decreasing supply, and deteriorating consumer sentiment.

[...]

Moscow's central bank posted a 93% year-on-year drop in its current-account surplus for the April-June quarter. It fell from a record $76.7 billion to $5.4 billion.

[...]

In June, Russia's Finance Ministry said that revenue from oil-and-gas taxes fell 36% compared to a year ago to about 571 billion rubles, and that profits from crude and petroleum products tumbled 31% to 426 billion rubles.

Adding to Russia's troubles is a tumbling ruble. The country's currency slumped to a 15-month low of 94.48 against the dollar earlier in July, triggered by capital flight, shrinking tax revenues, and declining central-bank reserves.

Newsweek skrev:Colonel Yevgeny Vashunin, a commander of the Leningrad Regiment composed mainly of mobilized residents of Russia's Leningrad Oblast, was killed on July 14 when his group was encircled by Ukrainian militants who noticed their movements, Pravda.ru reported on Monday.

[...]

Data collected by the BBC Russian Service, with the aid of MediaZona and volunteers, reported last month that at least 240 Russian soldiers died in the first month of Ukraine's current counteroffensive between June 4 and July 7—including one general, two colonels and three lieutenant colonels.

[...]

Vashunin and his men were reportedly coming to the aide of the 34th Storm brigade, which is composed of mobilized citizens—some of which were allegedly threatened recently by Russian military officers, according to Russian opposition news outlet Mobilization News.

Washington Post skrev:When Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, launched his attempted mutiny on the morning of June 24, Vladimir Putin was paralyzed and unable to act decisively, according to Ukrainian and other security officials in Europe. No orders were issued for most of the day, the officials said.

The Russian president had been warned by the Russian security services at least two or three days ahead of time that Prigozhin was preparing a possible rebellion, according to intelligence assessments shared with The Washington Post. Steps were taken to boost security at several strategic facilities, including the Kremlin, where staffing in the presidential guard was increased and more weapons were handed out, but otherwise no actions were taken, these officials said.

[...]

To some degree, if Prigozhin’s mutiny was an attempt to gain leverage, it worked. Putin was apparently forced into compromise with the renegade leader, allowing him to travel around Russia for days after the mutiny, because Prigozhin’s work for the Kremlin was too deeply intertwined with the interests of Putin’s state, according to several of the security officials, and Vladimir Osechkin, an exiled human rights activist who has interviewed several former Wagner fighters. Instead of prosecuting Prigozhin for leading the armed insurrection, Putin agreed to drop the charges. In exchange, Prigozhin halted the march on Moscow, withdrew his men from key military installations and agreed to decamp to Belarus, keeping at least part of Wagner intact.

Ukrinform skrev:U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this at the Aspen Security Forum on Friday, according to an Ukrinform correspondent.

"The fundamental problem is that President Putin believes, continues to believe, that he can outlast Ukraine and that he can outlast all of Ukraine's supporters. It's vitally important that we disabuse him of that notion," he said.

Foreign Affairs skrev:But now, Putin must face an even more disturbing possibility: suppose the reckoning cannot be postponed and comes before a definitive end to the fighting, not afterward. All trends—military, economic, diplomatic—continue to point in the wrong direction, and Putin has no convincing explanation for how the situation can be salvaged. The Russian president finds himself boxed in with no good options. He may indeed already be aware that the reckoning has begun.

[...]

Even if progress is slower than hoped, Ukraine will have no interest in a cease-fire so long as Russia holds so much of its land and immiserates those living under its occupation. Kyiv assumes that Moscow would use any truce to reconstitute its forces for the next round of fighting. Recovery and reconstruction in postwar Ukraine will pose daunting challenges and raise awkward questions about the assessments and decisions made before and during the fighting. But contrary to the hindsight in Russia, there is no doubt in Ukraine that this is a war that had to be fought and could be lost.

Putin can simply try to hang on but given the mounting pressures he needs a strategy to show that Russia still has a path to victory. What Putin does should in turn shape Ukrainian actions. Kyiv can add to the anxieties in Moscow, demonstrating that no part of Russia is secure, punishing Russian forces at the front, and opportunistically liberating territory even if it is not quite what military planners intended. This has become a war of endurance. Just as Putin must hope that Ukraine and its Western supporters will tire before Russia does, Ukraine and its backers must show that they can cope with the war’s demands for as long as necessary.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑lördag 08 juli 2023 13:19 Verkligheten är tyvärr motsägelsefull, men alla klarar inte av det. Då får man ta till twitter-kloaken istället. Fast egentligen återgav jag inte denna referens för att få höra Enceladus-kollektivets ryggmärgsreaktioner, utan tanken att det skulle finnas någon annan bland publicum som hade intresse av att läsa den. Av antalet visningar av denna tråd verkar det finnas något fler än kollektivet och jag som besöker den, nämligen.

The New Voice of Ukraine skrev:Ukraine’s real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 reached 20-21% compared to the second quarter of 2022, according to the leading researcher of the Institute of Economic Research and Political Consultation (IED), Oleksandra Betlii, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 25.

[...]

The institute stated that the explosion of the Kakhovka dam led to a deterioration of indicators in metallurgy and iron ore mining, however real gross value in the mining sector remained at the same level as last year. The energy sector showed worse indicators than in June 2022 due to the ongoing repair of power units.

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 25 juli 2023 12:39

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑lördag 08 juli 2023 13:19 Verkligheten är tyvärr motsägelsefull, men alla klarar inte av det. Då får man ta till twitter-kloaken istället. Fast egentligen återgav jag inte denna referens för att få höra Enceladus-kollektivets ryggmärgsreaktioner, utan tanken att det skulle finnas någon annan bland publicum som hade intresse av att läsa den. Av antalet visningar av denna tråd verkar det finnas något fler än kollektivet och jag som besöker den, nämligen.

Ukraina tjänar inte på att förhandla med någon så förvirrad som Putin. Richard Haass är i bästa fall en nyttig idiot, i värsta fall en rysk propagandist.

DN skrev:Uppgifterna om de tuffa förhållandena i de ryska befästningarna och den låga moralen har varit många under kriget. I november kom rapporter om att Ryssland satt in speciella anti-reträttstyrkor, med syftet att förhindra att ryska soldater flyr från sina poster. I praktiken är deras uppgift att skjuta skarpt mot de soldater som inte följer order.

[...]

I dag har Sergej återvänt till Ryssland efter att ha skadats vid flera tillfällen, skriver CNN. Enligt egen utsago fick han nio hjärnskakningar på åtta månader vid fronten. I vintras sköts han i benet, men skickades tillbaka till fronten efter bara tio dagars vård.

[...]

I våras kom rapporter om att ryska soldater straffades hårt för disciplinära åtgärder, genom att stängas in i så kallade zindans, gropar i marken som täcks över med galler. Sergej vittnar om att även avrättningar förekom för att bestraffa rekryter.

[...]

Ryssland har använt sig av dömda fångar för att fylla på i frontleden, framför allt genom Wagnergruppen. Sedan ett par månader tillbaka har landets statliga armé tagit över fångrekryteringen och Sergej uppger att han stred tillsammans med runt 600 fångar. När han lämnade fronten var bara runt 170 av dem kvar i livet, skriver CNN.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑onsdag 29 juni 2022 9:35 Det finns ingenting i Kofmans analys som motsäger det faktum att Donbass taktiskt är förlorat, om "long term trends still favor Ukraine" återstår att se. Om div. twittrare "som vanligt (är) en av de mest trovärdiga" är ju upp till var och en att tro på. Jag ser det mest som psykologisk krigföring. Utmärkande för twitter (liksom för andra asociala medier) är bl.a. att det finns gott om ryska troll där (syns inte minst i twittertråden om terrorangreppet mot Krementjuk, där en massa anonyma konton dyker upp och sprider rysk propaganda).

Asociala medier är och förblir spridare av hat, hot, rykten och lögner.

Blake Allen skrev:Taking Andriivka & Klischiivka are big wins locally around Bakhmut. This effectively closes the southern supply route to the 50k Russian troops around the city. I expect the AFU to now take Kurdyumivka next & with them likely aiming to march to the heights west of Zaitseve

In this area iirc - at least that were rotated in like a month or so ago - are a lot of troops from the 3AC (mostly poor training & mobiks), some VDV units, and Chechens.

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 25 juli 2023 12:39 Blinken: It's vitally important to convince Putin that he will not outlast Ukraine

Ukrinform skrev:U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this at the Aspen Security Forum on Friday, according to an Ukrinform correspondent.

"The fundamental problem is that President Putin believes, continues to believe, that he can outlast Ukraine and that he can outlast all of Ukraine's supporters. It's vitally important that we disabuse him of that notion," he said.

Putin är fortfarande övertygad om att han är uthålligare än sina betydligt starkare motståndare, trots att allt tyder på motsatsen.

[.... ]

Västvärldens biståndsbudgetar vida överstiger Rysslands försvarsbudget. Ändå förlitar sig Putin på Rysslands förmenta uthållighet.

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑tisdag 25 juli 2023 18:20 Hur dåligt humör Wagner än sägs vara på (enligt den feta skurken Lukasjenko).

WSJ skrev:Speaking to reporters last week at the Aspen Security Forum, U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said the U.S. and the West must continue to supply as much and as quickly possible to Ukraine. “People say, ‘Yeah, but you know what, we can’t leave the cupboard bare. You got to save it for a rainy day,’” he said. “I mean, this is the rainy day.”

One Western diplomat in Washington said the U.S. may have to accept that the war in Ukraine isn’t going to end soon, and allies need to prepare to supply Kyiv for a conflict that lasts for years.

“The only real response is an industrial mobilization that will give Ukrainians, and the Russians, a clear message that the Ukrainians will always have plenty of what they need,” the diplomat said.

Enceladus skrev: ↑söndag 25 juni 2023 23:56 Ryssland var tidigt ute med digitala banktjänster. Nu blomstrar fysiska kontanter, och Prigozjin har nytta av sin erfarenhet som småkriminell.

DN skrev:Han har tidigare namngett flera oligarker som privat säger att kriget är en katastrof, men som tiger offentligt. Nu kallar han dem ”fegisar” och menar att de också agerar mot sitt eget ekonomiska intresse: så länge Putin sitter vid makten riskerar de att när som helst få sina tillgångar beslagtagna.

– Vad är det som säger att de inte tar dem om fem år? Ryssland har ingen framtid under Putin, för alla tillgångar skyfflas runt hela tiden. Det finns ingen lag, inga domstolar. Du vinner i dag, men förlorar i morgon. Det är rysk roulette.

Själv tvingades Tinkov sälja sin andel i skötebarnet Tinkoff Bank efter sina kritiska uttalanden i början av kriget – enligt honom själv till 3 procent av aktiernas värde. Han har förlorat större delen av sin förmögenhet, men är fortfarande en rik man.

[...]

Men till skillnad från många andra oligarker har han inte blivit rik på att köpa upp Rysslands naturtillgångar – olja, gas och mineraler – till underpris i riggade auktioner. Han är mer en typisk entreprenör som började med att importera billig asiatisk elektronik, gick över till frysta pelmeni (sibiriska fyllda degknyten), ett eget ölmärke och till sist en storbank.

Decrypt skrev:Unlike a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin, a CBDC is a centralized token with a value tied to a national fiat currency. Today, Russia's ruble is considered to be among the world's worst-performing currencies because of rising inflation, which has been accelerated by the West's sanctions after Moscow launched a war against Ukraine last Feburary.

[...]

The idea of a digital ruble has floated around for years in Russia, but the concept drew more urgency after the United States and its allies launched a barrage of sanctions to cut Russia off from international financial markets after the invasion. Legislative moves to bring the CBDC online accelerated earlier this year.

[...]

"If they want, they use it. If they don't want to, they don’t use it," Nabiullina said, according to Russian state-owned media. "But we really hope that it will be more convenient, cheaper for both people and business, and they will start using it. This is a new opportunity."

Carnegie Politika skrev:It’s not easy for Russian companies to find new production partners. In February 2022, the United States banned the export to Russia of semiconductors produced with U.S. equipment or intellectual property. Anyone violating these rules can be hit with secondary sanctions.

There are no exceptions, and even companies in friendly countries have had to think long and hard about whether to work with Russian firms. In March 2022, Gina Raimondo, the U.S. secretary of commerce, threatened to essentially shut down China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation if it sent products to Russia.

[...]

If Chinese companies violate the sanctions on semiconductor exports to Russia, the United States could impose new restrictions on them, including by targeting so-called mature technology of 16nm and above. Given the experience of the Chinese company Huawei, which has for all intents and purposes been cut off from both key technologies and its sales market by U.S. sanctions, it seems likely that other Chinese firms will observe the sanctions.

Enceladus skrev: ↑tisdag 25 juli 2023 19:46 Ukraine’s Stalled Offensive Puts Biden in Uneasy Political Position

WSJ skrev:Speaking to reporters last week at the Aspen Security Forum, U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said the U.S. and the West must continue to supply as much and as quickly possible to Ukraine. “People say, ‘Yeah, but you know what, we can’t leave the cupboard bare. You got to save it for a rainy day,’” he said. “I mean, this is the rainy day.”

One Western diplomat in Washington said the U.S. may have to accept that the war in Ukraine isn’t going to end soon, and allies need to prepare to supply Kyiv for a conflict that lasts for years.

“The only real response is an industrial mobilization that will give Ukrainians, and the Russians, a clear message that the Ukrainians will always have plenty of what they need,” the diplomat said.

Putins värsta mardröm är på väg att infrias, nämligen att väst förbereder sig för ett långvarigt krig.

Eurpean Council on foreign relations/Gustav Gressel skrev:Europeans should not believe that their problems will solve themselves through inherent weaknesses and contradictions. The Russian state and its war of aggression against Ukraine will unfortunately continue for the time being. For Ukraine, the whole episode showcased the warlord-ruled hellscape that the occupied territories have become, and reaffirmed the fact that security can only be achieved by removing the Russian occupation altogether. The slow pace of the ongoing counter-offensive, the high losses in men and materiel on Ukraine’s side, and the damage that minefields, especially Russian ones, do to both military and civilian victims should convince Europeans and the United States to dramatically increase assistance to Ukraine – equipment, munitions, and training – in order to end the war with a Ukrainian victory, rather than hoping that a challenge from within or a long war will grind Vladimir Putin down.

Enceladus skrev: ↑fredag 30 juni 2023 23:08 Som bekant vill inte USA att Ukraina vinner för snabbt. Men en långsam seger, för att inte tala om ett dödläge, kan innebära ännu mer kärnvapenspridning.

Reuters skrev:The New Development Bank (NDB), the multilateral bank set up by the BRICS states, is not considering new projects in Russia as it operates in line with restrictions imposed in financial and capital markets, its head said on Wednesday.

[...]

Rousseff, who is also a former president of Brazil, said she will have a bilateral meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin later in the day on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, but its purpose would be discussing "the role of the NDB in the upcoming BRICS Summit."

BRICS countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, are scheduled to gather in the African country next month. Putin will not attend.

Reuters skrev:Chicago wheat futures, a benchmark of global prices, have risen around 20% since Russia ended the deal on July 17. They are now at their highest levels since February, though well below their peaks of 2022.

[...]

Russia says 49 African delegations will take part but only 17 heads of state - sharply down from the 45 who attended the last such event in 2019. It accuses the West of trying to sabotage the event by dissuading leaders from coming.

[...]

Some have had strong ties with Moscow since the Cold War; many are sympathetic to Putin's idea of countering U.S. dominance in a new "multipolar" world order.

Kursiv skrev:The government of Kazakhstan has decided to postpone testing of the space rocket complex Baiterek designed for medium-lift launch vehicles at the Baikonur Cosmodrome. The pause for 2023 to 2025 is due to the current geopolitical situation in the world, according to the protocol on changes to the agreement between Kazakhstan and Russia on the creation of the space rocket complex Baiterek at the Baikonur Cosmodrome.

[...]

Russia is leasing the Baikonur Cosmodrome from Kazakhstan up to 2050. In 2019, the media reported that Russia was planning to use the medium-lift launch vehicle Soyuz-5 until 2062. The launches were supposed to start in 2023. Soyuz-5 was designed as a substitute for the Zenit rocket designed by Russia and Ukraine. This project was closed due to the conflict between the two countries.

Enceladus skrev: ↑onsdag 29 mars 2023 0:31 Russia’s Economy Is Starting to Come Undone

WSJ skrev:Before the war, Oleg Mansurov dreamed of competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX. After the invasion, investors in Mr. Mansurov’s Moscow-based SR Space pulled their funds.

Bloomberg skrev:Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, needs a win. Since the invasion it’s lost customers such as London-based satellite operator OneWeb Ltd. and South Korea’s space agency, cutting off a valuable source of foreign funding. The European Space Agency last year pulled out of Luna-25 and a joint mission to Mars. China, which in 2021 reached a preliminary agreement with Russia to establish a joint research station on the moon, has taken to calling it a “China-led” project. And in December and again in February, a pair of Roscosmos vehicles at the International Space Station (ISS) suffered coolant leaks and couldn’t complete their missions. Russia’s space program “is a story of poor execution, low funding and poor quality control,” says Maxime Puteaux, an analyst with Euroconsult.

Yury Borisov, a former deputy prime minister who took over as director general of Roscosmos a year ago, concedes that Russia has fallen behind other big spacefaring nations. While the US last year had more than 4,500 operating satellites in orbit and China had almost 600, Russia had fewer than 200, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. And Borisov says his country can make only about 15 a year. “Europe, India, all the leading countries are actively increasing their production capacities,” he told the Moscow daily Vedomosti in December. “But we overslept.”

[...]

There’s almost no private space activity in Russia. A pair of Russian companies, SR Space and T1 IT Holding, intend to launch a suborbital rocket by yearend, though they won’t put a spacecraft into orbit before 2025. But Oleg Mansurov, founder of SR Space, is betting that Russia’s increasing isolation will create opportunities for companies like his. Before the invasion almost all satellite data for civilian use in Russia came from foreign companies, he says. With those suppliers shutting down their service, Russia will need its own satellite operators. “We are like a litmus test of what is happening now with private space in Russia,” he says.

[...]

Putin and Borisov have spent years courting India, which has long been a major customer for Russian-made arms. In 2020 the Indian space agency dispatched four people to train in Russia, part of an agreement for cooperation on India’s fledgling human spaceflight program. But when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Washington in June, India signed the Artemis Accords, a US-backed space partnership supported by 27 countries, though not Russia or China. India will now work closely with NASA to send an Indian astronaut to the ISS next year. “The perception in India is that Russia is a technology power that’s on the wane,” says Konark Bhandari, a fellow at Carnegie India, an affiliate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.