Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Vidare är det ukrainska tjänstemän som uppger att Kursk-offensiven går bättre än väntat.

Pensionerade australiske generalen Mick Ryan ställer sig frågan vad syftet är med denna ukrainska operation:

Experten: Ukrainas Kursk-anfall är riskfyllt

Målet i kriget för Ukraina är inte bara att ta tillbaka ockuperad mark, enligt Oscar Jonsson:

– Det spelar ingen roll om du har samma Ryssland. Då får du ett nytt krig om ett år eller två. Målet är att få ett Ryssland som förstår att det är ingen idé att kriga med Ukraina överhuvudtaget, då kan en sådan här operation hjälpa.

Enligt Oscar Jonsson, doktor i rysk krigföring, är målet inget mindre än att förändra Ryssland. Hittills har det gått bra, och snart kan robothundar släppas lösa!

Självklart säger ukrainska tjänstemän det- det vore direkt tjänstefel att säga någonting annat. Annorlunda är det med propaganda-kollektivet "Enceladus", som bygger sina tvärsäkra uttalande på mer eller mindre trovärdiga rykten i musk-kloaken. En försiktig bedömning är väl att det var nödvändigt för Ukraina att göra någonting oväntat. På så sätt kan man se detta som en pendang till det tidigare ryska anfallet norr om Charkiv. Generellt sett har Ukraina förstås behov av att föra in kriget på rysk mark och skapa krigsskådeplatser i Ryssland. Hittills har det ju fått ske nästan enbart med luftangrepp.

Dessutom säger Oscar Jonsson något annat också:

Attacken är ett högt spel för Ukraina, där vinningen är att kunna visa att man gjort något unikt i kriget.

– Men misslyckas man med det här, tar man stora förluster eller inte når några av målen, kan det se väldigt illa ut för den ukrainska överbefälhavaren.

Oscar Jonsson menar att attacken kan ge andrum för Ukraina, som nu kan förstärka sitt försvar.

– Man sitter i ett svårt läge och det här kommer få en stor politisk påverkan som kan tvinga Ryssland att omfördela sina förband, säger Oscar Jonsson.

Egentligen är det rätt självklart. Krig är en ganska riskfylld sysselsättning, och det finns inga garantier för ett givet utfall av ett sådant, eller en enskild krigshändelse. För oss som sitter på facit för historiska krig kan utgången förefalla självklar, men för den tidens politiska och militära ledare var det inte så. Eisenhower var ex.vis inte alls övertygad om att operation Overlord (invasionen i Normandie 1944) skulle lyckas, och sägs ha utarbetat en alternativ kommuniké vid händelse av ett misslyckande.

Även (den numera pensionerade) överstelöjtnanten Paasikivi har teorier: https://tv.aftonbladet.se/video/372963/ ... i-ryssland

[Enceladus]

Kallar man krigshetsaren och Netanyahu-anhängaren "Badhwars" skriverier för "hemläxa" lever man i sin egen fantasivärld. Enskilda vapensystem är dessutom aldrig avgörande - om man inte är propaqgandist och tror på "undervapen", förstås.

Visserligen gjorde de ukrainska drönarna ett bra jobb, men vissa luftfarkoster hann lämna den attackerade flygbasen. Jag kunde inte ha sagt det bättre själv:

I can't TL;DR this. You're going to want to read all of it, but the key takeaway is, needs ATACMS to destroy time sensitive targets & reduce expenditure rates of Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG. Without it, certain high value Russian assets are largely safe from destruction. (2/72)

Tydligen har Ukraina förstört ännu en kolonn i Kursk-området. Vad är Rysslands reaktion? Att öka censuren ytterligare, denna gång genom att blockera Signal.

[Enceladus]

Utan spaningsdrönare är de ryska trupperna blinda!

Slakten av ryska spaningsdrönare fortsätter:

FPV drone operators of the 38th Brigade of Ukraine intercept nine Russian reconnaissance drones over the Kherson region: two Supercam, six ZALA and one Orlan.

P.S: It's remarkable how easily the first FPV drone maneuvers around the Russian Supercam, choosing the right moment to attack.

Därmed tvingas ryska trupper fly i panik - i sitt eget land:

Goncharovka, Kursk Oblast, retreating Russian forces abandoned a pair of modern T-80BVM main battle tanks on the southern end of town.

Ukraina tackar och tar emot!

När det gäller Iran så är det mycket spekulationer, men ganska lite kunskap och fakta.

Exclusive: Iran to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia soon, intel sources say

Dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, two European intelligence sources told Reuters, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

Russian defence ministry representatives are believed to have signed a contract on Dec. 13 in Tehran with Iranian officials for the Fath-360 and another ballistic missile system built by Iran's government-owned Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO) called the Ababil, said the two intelligence officials, who requested anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters.

[...]

A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council said the United States and its NATO allies and G7 partners "are prepared to deliver a swift and severe response if Iran were to move forward with such transfers."

Enligt uppgift pågår en maktkamp mellan Pezeshkian och Islamiska revolutionsgardet. Utfallet kan få konsekvenser för såväl Ukraina som Mellanöstern:

“These recent exercises in the country’s western border are just to intimidate Mr Pezeshkian. Sepah [the IRGC] is very insistent on targeting Israel and they think it is easy,” a second aide to Mr Pezeshkian told The Telegraph.

“He has suggested targeting somewhere related to Israel in the Republic of Azerbaijan or [Iraqi] Kurdistan and let these countries know before that and get done with the whole drama.”

[...]

“Using his influence within the leader’s office, he is working to prevent the IRGC from plunging Iran into war,” they added.

Vad säger Aliyev om detta!?

[Enceladus]

Enligt uppgift pågår en maktkamp mellan Pezeshkian och Islamiska revolutionsgardet. Utfallet kan få konsekvenser för såväl Ukraina som Mellanöstern:

Evidence Shows ‘Hand to Mouth’ Production of Russia’s Advanced Weapons

The missile, a Kh-101 filled with about 1,000 pounds of explosives, was made this spring before the attack, according to a report released on Friday by a nongovernmental organization that examined remnants of the missile. That suggests Russian forces are using weapons like it as soon as they roll off the production line, the group said.

[...]

The use of top-line cruise missiles so soon after production probably indicates that Russia has to limit combat plans based on how many of those weapons its factories can make, Mr. Spleeters said, rather than having a deep enough inventory to choose targets based on evolving battlefield needs.

“When you want to understand the way that Russia wages war and their ability to continue to do so in the future, I think that tension between supply and demand is important,” he said. “And the fact that they use those assets on things like hospitals, whether that’s intentional or not, compounds the issue.”

Inte undra på att Ryssland behöver tigga om missiler från Nordkorea och Iran. Sedan är frågan om missilerna används optimalt:

Russian sources claimed that they conducted a successful Iskander-M ballistic missile strike against Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. The Russian MoD claimed on August 10 that Russian forces struck a command post of the Ukrainian forces near the Kursk Oblast border area.[42] Geolocated footage published on August 10 purportedly shows that Russian forces struck a position of the Ukrainian forces east of Sheptukhovka, Kursk Oblast.[43] An OSINT analyst on X reported on August 10 that the footage published by the Russian MoD indicates that the Russian forces missed nearby vehicles of the Ukrainian forces that they were aiming at.[44] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack just north of Sheptukhovka near Kauchuk on the night of August 9 to 10.[45]

Den ryska desperationen växer. Exempelvis har ryssarna förlorat ännu en attackhelikopter i Kursk-området. Även Lukasjenka tycks vara orolig:

Marktrupper, raketartilleri och iskanderrobotar kommer att placeras ut i områdena kring Mazyr och Homel i sydöstra Belarus, enligt president Lukasjenko. Belarus har också kallat upp Ukrainas chargé d'affaires för att försäkra sig om att inga ytterligare kränkningar sker.

– Antingen är Belarus genuint rädda för att Ukraina försöker sig på någonting eller så är det ett sätt för Lukasjenko att hålla ihop sitt land. Att hålla sin befolkning i schack genom att hålla dem rädda, det är ju grundformen för en diktatur, säger Magnus Christiansson, universitetslektor i krigsvetenskap på Försvarshögskolan.

Chefen för Ukrainas center för att motverka desinformation, Andrey Kavalenk, tror snarare att utplaceringen av trupper är ett försök att avleda Ukrainas uppmärksamhet.

Ryssarna får inte heller någon ro i Svarta havet:

As said: Tonight, Ukrainian SeaBaby sea kamikaze drones struck one of the Oil platform in the Black Sea, where Russians had placed technical reconnaissance equipment and held up to 40 personnel.

[Enceladus]

Russia evacuates another border region amid growing threat from Ukrainian units

In the neighbouring Belgorod region to the south, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said evacuations had begun from the Krasnaya Yaruga District due to "enemy activity on the border".

[...]

At the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, in a part of Ukraine controlled by Russian forces, a major fire broke out.

[...]

Russian war bloggers said Ukrainian forces in Kursk were trying to encircle Sudzha, where Russian natural gas flows into Ukraine, while major battles were underway near Korenevo, about 22 km (14 miles) from the border, and Martynovka.

En brand bröt ut i Zaporizjzjas kärnkraftverk, och gasanläggningen i Sudzja har skadats. Elbilar räddar Kina från import. Den ryska propagandan är förvirrad:

State TV host Olga Skabeeva suddenly discovered that the Kremlin's math is not adding up: Gerasimov said the Ukrainian attack was mounted by up to 1,000 troops, Russia is claiming it killed nearly 1,000 Ukrainians near Kursk, and yet they keep advancing.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 17 346 enheter, varav 3 313 stridsvagnar, 122 flygplan, 141 helikoptrar, 15 strids- och 405 spaningsdrönare.

[Enceladus]

Så fort en diktator utser sin "efterträdare" är denne körd, skulle jag vilja påstå.

Putin pulls back troops from Ukraine to defend Kursk invasion

He appointed Alexei Dyumin, his former bodyguard, as the commander in charge of the operation on Tuesday. Mr Dyumin gained favour by once protecting Putin from a bear and is seen as a potential successor to him in the Kremlin.

[...]

Since December 2023, Moscow’s forces have advanced 994 sq km into Ukraine, according to maps published on Deep State, the authoritative Ukrainian website.

On Tuesday, Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine said that 74 Russian settlements were now held by Ukrainian forces and suggested they could be swapped for Ukrainian territory.

Putin har just utnämnt Djumin till befälhavare över så kallade "antiterror"-operationer i Kursk-området, vilket starkt påminner om andra Tjetjenienkriget:

Russia has declared its defense operation to be a "counter-terrorist operation" (KTO in Russian). This is a domestic operation and the FSB and Rosgvardia have roles along with the military. This is what the war in Chechnya was called from 1999 until it ended. /2

[...]

The entirety of the area was formerly the Western Military District (2010-24). Russia decided to split it up in March-April 2024 to cope with NATO expansion. It named two commanders: Lapin (LEMD) and Kozovlev (MOMD). /5

[...]

AFU invaded Russia despite 2 years of partial mobilization in Kursk, 10 years of legislation to make power ministries coordinate better, and a 2023 offer from Prigozhin to help guard the border (Shoigu rejected it). Bardak as usual. Now the reaction begins. /17

Lapin misslyckades även med Charkiv-offensiven för två år sedan. Putin har dock möjligen missat att de tjetjenska gerillakrigarna inte hade ett flygvapen:

The first footage of Ukrainian Air Force airstrikes in support of the Kursk offensive has emerged.

Seen here, a Ukrainian fighter drops a pair of US-supplied JDAM-ERs on Russian positions in Tetkino, conducting an effective tactical strike into Russia.

Marknaden har tydligen inte låtit sig imponeras av den senaste veckans händelser: Rubeln har återigen kraschat, och än en gång stundar en ny mobilisering:

The military isn’t getting enough new soldiers to keep pace with frontline losses that are at their highest since the February 2022 invasion began, according to three people close to the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry, asking not to be identified because the issue is sensitive. Regional officials are leaving more than a third of their recruitment quotas unfilled on average, a person familiar with the situation said.

The situation may force Russia to consider a new mobilization, according to two of the people. Officials may present it as a rotation measure to rest frontline troops, one of the people said, while another said a draft may be ordered as soon as the end of this year.

[...]

The Kremlin doesn’t say how many Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the war. Western estimates put Russian casualties at as high as 500,000 in total. The UK Ministry of Defence said Aug. 3 that the past three months had been the costliest for Russia in terms of casualties since the war began, reaching as high as 1,262 per day on average in May.

Hur går det med bekämpningen av inflationen?

[Enceladus]

Zaluzhnyi har begått "insubordinationsbrott" genom att ha egna åsikter om krigets utveckling. Dessutom är han ett potentiellt politiskt hot, åtminstone som Zelenskyj uppfattar det. Så längre kriget pågår är Zelenskyjs ledarskap ohotat, både praktiskt och konstitutionellt. Zelenskyjs roll kan därvid liknas vid sir Winston Churchills under WW2. Men han är ingen fredtida ledare för Ukraina, och när kriget väl är slut så kommer han att ersättas med någon annan, ungefär som när Churchill valdes bort efter krigsslutet 1945. Det inser t.o.m. katastrofförfattaren Wilderäng.

A Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage

Within days, Zelensky approved the plan, according to the four people familiar with the plot. All arrangements were made verbally, leaving no paper trail.

But the next month, the Dutch military intelligence agency MIVD learned of the plot and warned the CIA, according to several people familiar with the Dutch report. U.S. officials then promptly informed Germany, according to U.S. and German officials.

The CIA warned Zelensky’s office to stop the operation, U.S. officials said. The Ukrainian president then ordered Zalyzhniy to halt it, according to Ukrainian officers and officials familiar with the conversation as well as Western intelligence officials. But the general ignored the order, and his team modified the original plan, these people said.

Tja, Zaluzjnyj tycks ha andra skelett i garderoben, för att uttrycka sig försiktigt. Nu är det Ukraina som använder fossilgas som vapen:

“The enemy is gradually turning Sudzha into their support and logistics center. This will really make our situation even more complicated,” they note.

Har det inte varit ovanligt tyst från Orban på sistone?

Kursk Invasion Plan Developed By Lessons Learned From Failed Counteroffensive: Retired Ukrainian Officer

The invasion of Kursk, now on its ninth day, is a “carefully planned” operation based in large measure on lessons Ukraine learned from last summer’s failed counteroffensive, a retired high-ranking Ukrainian officer told The War Zone on Tuesday.

[...]

It was not until Monday that Ukraine’s leadership offered any operational details about the invasion, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proclaiming that his troops controlled nearly 400 square miles of territory in Kursk. The reason for the informational blackout was to maintain the element of surprise, the retired officer explained. Still, some units posted their advances on social media, like the one in the video below.

The “secret mode of planning and execution of this operation demonstrates that the Ukrainian side learned well lessons from the unsuccessful counteroffensive operation, specifically the issue of strategic communication.”

Syrskyj får i alla händelser en formidabel uppgift, men han verkar ha lärt sig av sin föregångares misstag. Ryssland fick inte chansen att förbereda sig:

Russia Building Trenches In Kursk To Defend Against Ukrainian Advances

In a sign that it is digging in to blunt Ukraine’s now nine-day-old invasion of Kursk Oblast, Russia is building trenches near the town of Lgov, about 30 miles north of the border, according to Maxar satellite imagery provided to The War Zone on Wednesday. The construction comes as Ukrainian forces are pushing their way northward from the area of territory they currently control.

[...]

“Earlier this week, dozens of messages from relatives of Russian conscript soldiers began to appear on the Internet that the command plans to send them to the Kursk region, where the offensive of the Armed Forces continues,” the outlet reported. “They took the main blow of the [Armed Forces of Ukraine] at Sudzha on August 6-7 and were quickly taken into Ukrainian captivity. Now relatives of conscripts from other Russian regions have begun to report on the transfer – both already held and planned – to the Kursk region. They actively write about it in social networks, contact the media and ask for the help of human rights defenders.”

[...]

The longer Ukrainian troops stay on Russian soil, the more Moscow has to commit to the fight. How much this will affect the battle in the territory Russia occupies in Ukraine is still to be determined.

Ukraina fortsätter att avancera. Har Putin inte lärt sig något av Kursk-katastrofen för 24 år sedan - den symboliska början för hans regim?

Ukrainian Drone Seen Slamming Into Russian Air Base In Large-Scale Strikes On Multiple Installations

While its incursion into Russian territory continues, Ukrainian forces are also maintaining their long-range offensive against Russian air bases, hammering three different airfields overnight. Based on available reports, the latest air bases to be targeted were Baltimor and Borisoglebsk in the Voronezh region, and Savasleyka in the Nizhny Novgorod region.

[...]

One prolific Russian military blogger, Fighterbomber, with close links to the VKS, wrote on Telegram that the overnight drone attacks were “Effective on some of [the targets]. Unfortunately, but legitimate.” Fightbomber added that these strategically important sites are covered only by “one or two Pantsir” short-range air defense systems.

[...]

According to CNN, a source from the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claims that the overnight attacks were the biggest of their kind to be launched against Russian airfields since the war began. That same source mentioned that another base, in the Kursk region, was also targeted.

Ryssland behöver mer än några Pantsir-system för att bekämpa ukrainska drönare!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Zaluzhnyi har begått "insubordinationsbrott" genom att ha egna åsikter om krigets utveckling. Dessutom är han ett potentiellt politiskt hot, åtminstone som Zelenskyj uppfattar det. Så längre kriget pågår är Zelenskyjs ledarskap ohotat, både praktiskt och konstitutionellt. Zelenskyjs roll kan därvid liknas vid sir Winston Churchills under WW2. Men han är ingen fredtida ledare för Ukraina, och när kriget väl är slut så kommer han att ersättas med någon annan, ungefär som när Churchill valdes bort efter krigsslutet 1945. Det inser t.o.m. katastrofförfattaren Wilderäng.

A Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage

Within days, Zelensky approved the plan, according to the four people familiar with the plot. All arrangements were made verbally, leaving no paper trail.

But the next month, the Dutch military intelligence agency MIVD learned of the plot and warned the CIA, according to several people familiar with the Dutch report. U.S. officials then promptly informed Germany, according to U.S. and German officials.

The CIA warned Zelensky’s office to stop the operation, U.S. officials said. The Ukrainian president then ordered Zalyzhniy to halt it, according to Ukrainian officers and officials familiar with the conversation as well as Western intelligence officials. But the general ignored the order, and his team modified the original plan, these people said.

Tja, Zaluzjnyj tycks ha andra skelett i garderoben, för att uttrycka sig försiktigt.

Ja, jag kunde ju inte gärna skriva om annat än det som var känt då.

[Odd]

Jag är förvånad över att Ukraina verkar möta så lite motstånd när de skapar en barriär mot Ryssland. Kan det vara så att Ryska militärens leverantörer helt enkelt inte hinner med att producera material, eller är det kanske till och med så att Ryssland inte betalar för det material man köper och att leveranserna därför sackar?

[Enceladus]

Jag är förvånad över att Ukraina verkar möta så lite motstånd när de skapar en barriär mot Ryssland. Kan det vara så att Ryska militärens leverantörer helt enkelt inte hinner med att producera material, eller är det kanske till och med så att Ryssland inte betalar för det material man köper och att leveranserna därför sackar?

Claims Swirl Around Strike On Key Russian Logistics Hub In Kursk

The Kursk Oblast city of Lgov came under fire Thursday, the 10th day of Ukraine’s invasion of this Russian region. Videos and images emerged on social media showing explosions and damage. Located 30 miles north of the border and about 10 miles north of Ukraine’s most recently claimed advance, Lgov is an important logistical hub for Russia. It has rail lines and a key highway connecting the city with the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov 15 miles to the east.

[...]

“We have a new advance,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday in his daily message, without offering any details. “We have a new replenishment of our ‘exchange fund,'” a reference to additional Russian prisoners of war (POWs)

General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukrainian forces, “also reported on the completion of the liberation of the town of Sudzha from the Russian military. Several other settlements have also been liberated. In total, there are already more than 80 of them. I thank every warrior of ours who ensures all this.”

Ukraina fortsätter att avancera, Ryssland fortsätter att evakuera och hundratals ryska soldater tas som krigsfångar. Den strategiska staden Sudzja har befriats:

Kadyrovites were found in one of the basements in Sudzha during the cleanup of the city, which took place after the city was captured by Ukrainian forces.

Vad kämpar ryssarna för egentligen? De värnpliktiga verkar i alla fall inte se någon mening med att offra sitt liv för att Putin ska kunna sälja fossilgas till Orban.

Earlier today, multiple milbloggers shared onboard footage of a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter destroying a Ukrainian convoy in Kursk with guided missile fire. Only one catch:

The convoy was Russian

The Ka-52 destroyed a pair of Russian transports in a friendly fire incident.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 17 418 enheter, varav 3 324 stridsvagnar, 123 flygplan, 141 helikoptrar, 15 strids- och 409 spaningsdrönare.

Signaturen "Anatoly Zak" bekräftar ovanstående slutsats:

After brisk rate of 8 launches in the first 5 months of 2024, there was not a single Russian orbital launch attempt in the past 2 months, putting Roskosmos on track for a record-low space activities this century as war and sanctions choke the economy:

USA och Kina har helt dragit ifrån. Samtidigt kan Europa jämställas med Nordkorea och Iran, sorgligt nog.

Facing “financial crisis,” Russia on pace for lowest launch total in 6 decades

"We are in an ongoing process of emerging from financial crisis, and it’s complicated," Yelchaninov told Interfax. "I would remind you that contract cancellations by unfriendly contacts cost Roscosmos 180 billion rubles ($2.1 billion US). This forces us to build a new economy in severe conditions."

As a result of this, Russia's space industry has been operating at a loss in recent years and may not begin to break even until 2025. Russia's invasion of Ukraine also came as United Launch Alliance finally ended its practice of purchasing RD-180 rocket engines, manufactured by NPO Energomash. This fact, in concert with decreased commercial demand for Russia's Proton and Soyuz rockets, has forced the Russian government to subsidize these elements of Roscosmos.

[...]

During the interview, Yelchaninov confirmed that Russia has committed to participating in the International Space Station program until "at least" 2028. NASA is pushing to extend the operational lifetime of the station to 2030, at which point the United States plans to de-orbit the aging laboratory using a modified Crew Dragon spacecraft.

En viss skribent har insisterat på att det är "bara en tidsfråga innan samarbetet kring ISS kollapsar". I verkligheten har Ryssland inte råd att lämna samarbetet...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Facing “financial crisis,” Russia on pace for lowest launch total in 6 decades

"We are in an ongoing process of emerging from financial crisis, and it’s complicated," Yelchaninov told Interfax. "I would remind you that contract cancellations by unfriendly contacts cost Roscosmos 180 billion rubles ($2.1 billion US). This forces us to build a new economy in severe conditions."

As a result of this, Russia's space industry has been operating at a loss in recent years and may not begin to break even until 2025. Russia's invasion of Ukraine also came as United Launch Alliance finally ended its practice of purchasing RD-180 rocket engines, manufactured by NPO Energomash. This fact, in concert with decreased commercial demand for Russia's Proton and Soyuz rockets, has forced the Russian government to subsidize these elements of Roscosmos.

[...]

During the interview, Yelchaninov confirmed that Russia has committed to participating in the International Space Station program until "at least" 2028. NASA is pushing to extend the operational lifetime of the station to 2030, at which point the United States plans to de-orbit the aging laboratory using a modified Crew Dragon spacecraft.

En viss skribent har insisterat på att det är "bara en tidsfråga innan samarbetet kring ISS kollapsar". I verkligheten har Ryssland inte råd att lämna samarbetet...

Ett visst propaganda-kollektiv kan aldrig låta bli att ständigt dra in och tjata om rymdfartsteknik i tråden.

[Enceladus]

Ett visst propaganda-kollektiv kan aldrig låta bli att ständigt dra in och tjata om rymdfartsteknik i tråden.

Rysslands rymdprogram är i stort sett en amerikansk skapelse:

The launch Tuesday morning was the end of an era born in the 1990s when US government policy allowed Lockheed Martin, the original developer of the Atlas V, to use Russian rocket engines during its first stage. There was a widespread sentiment in the first decade after the fall of the Soviet Union that the United States and other Western nations should partner with Russia to keep the country's aerospace workers employed and prevent "rogue states" like Iran or North Korea from hiring them.

USA har ungefär samma inställning till Rysslands invasion av Ukraina, d.v.s. USA befarar en rysk kollaps mer än en rysk seger. Här skulle Merz göra skillnad:

Some officials in Berlin think a Trump-Vance administration would not usher in a radical break with Biden’s foreign policy, and that it will remain committed to America’s traditional alliances. But most agree that US attention is bound to shift away from Europe to Asia, leaving Germany to take on a greater leadership role in its own neighbourhood.

That might be a lot to ask of Olaf Scholz, however, a weak chancellor facing an obstreperous coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and liberals who seem locked in perpetual internecine strife.

[...]

“Some 63 per cent of the Nato budget is paid by America, 27 per cent by EU member states,” says Merz, who opinion polls suggest could succeed Scholz as chancellor next year. “It’s been clear for years now that such an imbalance is unsustainable. And now we’re having to face reality.”

Exempelvis vill Merz skicka stridsflygplan till Ukraina, men Scholz säger förstås nej:

Responding to a statement by the leader of Germany’s conservative CDU/EPP party, Germany’s three-party government said it would not provide fighter jets to Ukraine, citing a lack of F-16s.

“It makes no sense to hand over various types of fighter jets to Ukraine, regardless of who would even be in a position to supply such aircraft,” a government spokesperson said on Monday.

[...]

In a televised interview on Sunday, Merz expressed that “the delivery of fighter jets to Ukraine is already a done deal in many countries around the world, including in Europe. As Germans, we should not stand back.”

Som bekant har Scholz bestämt sig för att profilera sig som "fredskansler", vilket innebär att Ryssland ska blidkas. De tyska väljarna köper inte resonemanget.

Den ryska desperationen växer. Exempelvis har ryssarna förlorat ännu en attackhelikopter i Kursk-området. Även Lukasjenka tycks vara orolig:

Nu finns visuell bekräftelse på nedskjutningen av en Ka-52-helikopter.

Ovanstående är intressant, givet att det visar vad som påstås, nämligen att Ukraina tar chansen att sätta in sitt taktiska flyg.

Ukraina har satt in mer än bara det:

Video from the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces of the first hours of the Kursk operation on August 6 with MICLICs breaching Russian fortifications, Strykers and tanks, and artillery and aviation support. The video also shows an armored bridge layer and other engineering vehicles.

Ovanstående bekräftelse av helikopterförlusten är hämtad från just denna video.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Claims Swirl Around Strike On Key Russian Logistics Hub In Kursk

The Kursk Oblast city of Lgov came under fire Thursday, the 10th day of Ukraine’s invasion of this Russian region. Videos and images emerged on social media showing explosions and damage. Located 30 miles north of the border and about 10 miles north of Ukraine’s most recently claimed advance, Lgov is an important logistical hub for Russia. It has rail lines and a key highway connecting the city with the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov 15 miles to the east.

[...]

“We have a new advance,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday in his daily message, without offering any details. “We have a new replenishment of our ‘exchange fund,'” a reference to additional Russian prisoners of war (POWs)

General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukrainian forces, “also reported on the completion of the liberation of the town of Sudzha from the Russian military. Several other settlements have also been liberated. In total, there are already more than 80 of them. I thank every warrior of ours who ensures all this.”

Ukraina fortsätter att avancera, Ryssland fortsätter att evakuera och hundratals ryska soldater tas som krigsfångar. Den strategiska staden Sudzja har befriats:

Kadyrovites were found in one of the basements in Sudzha during the cleanup of the city, which took place after the city was captured by Ukrainian forces.

Uttrycket "befriats" ovan är struntprat och dessutom folkrättsligt felaktigt. Ukraina kan inte "befria" rysk territorium.

ISW tror i alla fall att Putin fortsätter att prioritera östfronten: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... st-15-2024

Russian forces are maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast, demonstrating that the Russian military command continues to prioritize advances in eastern Ukraine even as Ukraine is pressuring Russian forces within Kursk Oblast. Russian forces are continuing to pursue a tactical encirclement of Ukrainian forces southeast of Pokrovsk.[18]

Geolocated footage published on August 14 and 15 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced east of Pokrovsk within Hrodivka and southeast of Pokrovsk within Mykolaivka, Zhelanne, and Orlivka, and ISW assesses that Russian forces likely seized Orlivka and Zhelanne.[19] Russian forces have also continued mechanized assaults near Donetsk City over the past several weeks.

Geolocated footage published on August 13 and 15 shows Ukrainian forces repelling a roughly company-sized Russian mechanized assault near Heorhiivka (west of Donetsk City) and a reduced company-sized Russian mechanized assault near Mykilske (southwest of Donetsk City).[20] Geolocated footage published on August 11 shows Russian forces conducting a roughly company-sized mechanized assault southeast of Heorhiivka.[21] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Dmytro Lykhovyi stated on August 15 that there have also been no significant changes to the Russian force grouping in southern Ukraine and that Russian forces are not decreasing their offensive operations in the area

Men ISW är ju "konservativa" bedömare, har jag hört.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Inlägget flyttat till rätt tråd: viewtopic.php?p=421214#p421214

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

USA har ungefär samma inställning till Rysslands invasion av Ukraina, d.v.s. USA befarar en rysk kollaps mer än en rysk seger. Här skulle Merz göra skillnad:

Some officials in Berlin think a Trump-Vance administration would not usher in a radical break with Biden’s foreign policy, and that it will remain committed to America’s traditional alliances. But most agree that US attention is bound to shift away from Europe to Asia, leaving Germany to take on a greater leadership role in its own neighbourhood.

That might be a lot to ask of Olaf Scholz, however, a weak chancellor facing an obstreperous coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and liberals who seem locked in perpetual internecine strife.

[...]

“Some 63 per cent of the Nato budget is paid by America, 27 per cent by EU member states,” says Merz, who opinion polls suggest could succeed Scholz as chancellor next year. “It’s been clear for years now that such an imbalance is unsustainable. And now we’re having to face reality.”

Exempelvis vill Merz skicka stridsflygplan till Ukraina, men Scholz säger förstås nej:

Responding to a statement by the leader of Germany’s conservative CDU/EPP party, Germany’s three-party government said it would not provide fighter jets to Ukraine, citing a lack of F-16s.

“It makes no sense to hand over various types of fighter jets to Ukraine, regardless of who would even be in a position to supply such aircraft,” a government spokesperson said on Monday.

[...]

In a televised interview on Sunday, Merz expressed that “the delivery of fighter jets to Ukraine is already a done deal in many countries around the world, including in Europe. As Germans, we should not stand back.”

Som bekant har Scholz bestämt sig för att profilera sig som "fredskansler", vilket innebär att Ryssland ska blidkas. De tyska väljarna köper inte resonemanget.

Struntprat och politiska kannstöperier som i vanligt ordning försöker rättfärdigas med floskeln "som bekant". Självklart försöker CDU/Metz både det ena och det andra, precis som Trump. I opposition är det lätt att lova både det ena och det andra - det finns det exempel på även i Sverige.

Vad de tyska väljarna köper eller inte köper kommer att visa sig i sinom tid - det kan varken Enceladus-kollektivet eller någon annan uttolka.

[Enceladus]

Uttrycket "befriats" ovan är struntprat och dessutom folkrättsligt felaktigt. Ukraina kan inte "befria" rysk territorium.

Varför lägger så många ryska soldater i Kursk-området ner sina vapen? Vill de kanske bilda Folkrepubliken Kursk eller rentav annekteras av Ukraina?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ett visst propaganda-kollektiv kan aldrig låta bli att ständigt dra in och tjata om rymdfartsteknik i tråden.

Rysslands rymdprogram är i stort sett en amerikansk skapelse:

The launch Tuesday morning was the end of an era born in the 1990s when US government policy allowed Lockheed Martin, the original developer of the Atlas V, to use Russian rocket engines during its first stage. There was a widespread sentiment in the first decade after the fall of the Soviet Union that the United States and other Western nations should partner with Russia to keep the country's aerospace workers employed and prevent "rogue states" like Iran or North Korea from hiring them.

Och så var vi där igen. Det är nästan skrattretande.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Uttrycket "befriats" ovan är struntprat och dessutom folkrättsligt felaktigt. Ukraina kan inte "befria" rysk territorium.

Varför lägger så många ryska soldater i Kursk-området ner sina vapen? Vill de kanske bilda Folkrepubliken Kursk eller rentav annekteras av Ukraina?

Det där är ett utslag av fantasin/förhoppningen att Ryska federationen håller på att falla sönder, ungefär som Sovjetunionen. Den brukar marknadsföras ibland , särskilt inom hatsvansen till katastrofförfattaren Wilderängs blogg.

Ukraina har, såvitt jag vet, inga ambitioner att annektera ryskt territorium: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/snabbkollen/ ... erovringar

[Enceladus]

Det där är ett utslag av fantasin/förhoppningen att Ryska federationen håller på att falla sönder, ungefär som Sovjetunionen. Den brukar marknadsföras ibland , särskilt inom hatsvansen till katastrofförfattaren Wilderängs blogg.

Nja, USA balanserar på slak lina mellan att undvika en rysk seger och en rysk kollaps:

Yesterday, the DoD said they were still trying to understand Ukraine's intentions with the Kursk operation even after @SecDef
spoke to @rustem_umerov.

Weird statement.

Now we learn that they are concerned that Ukraine has been too successful & is pushing too deep.

Problemet är att Europa kanske inte gör samma bedömning, vilket den polske historikerns inlägg antyder:

Dębski is a foreign policy expert and an advisor to all Poland's governments since 2000, a team leader, institution builder and interagency communication expert.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det där är ett utslag av fantasin/förhoppningen att Ryska federationen håller på att falla sönder, ungefär som Sovjetunionen. Den brukar marknadsföras ibland , särskilt inom hatsvansen till katastrofförfattaren Wilderängs blogg.

Nja, USA balanserar på slak lina mellan att undvika en rysk seger och en rysk kollaps:

Yesterday, the DoD said they were still trying to understand Ukraine's intentions with the Kursk operation even after @SecDef
spoke to @rustem_umerov.

Weird statement.

Now we learn that they are concerned that Ukraine has been too successful & is pushing too deep.

Problemet är att Europa kanske inte gör samma bedömning, vilket den polske historikerns inlägg antyder:

Dębski is a foreign policy expert and an advisor to all Poland's governments since 2000, a team leader, institution builder and interagency communication expert.

Nja, det där är fantasier - särskilt om man bygger dem på inlägg från krigshetsaren och Netanyahu-supportern Badhwar, eller wikipedia-artiklar.