Enceladus skrev: ↑torsdag 20 juni 2024 1:20
Förvisso undertecknades ett vänskapsavtal mellan Nordkorea och Kina redan 1961. Putin har dock inga vänner, bara intressen. Kim kan konsultera Armenien!
Vladimir Putin’s dangerous bromance with Kim Jong Un
The Economist skrev:South Korean officials say that Russia has yet to transfer sensitive technology related to ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons. One area of more immediate concern is space. Mr Panda reckons that a recent North Korean satellite launch attempt may have deployed a variant of an engine used in Russia’s Angara system, which Russia has at a cosmodrome that Mr Kim toured last autumn. For now, food and fuel probably make up the bulk of the trade. Mr Putin also gave Mr Kim a Russian-made limousine in February, and a second one during his latest trip—in pointed defiance of UN sanctions, which bar the export of luxury goods to North Korea.
Yet such seeming affection belies the limits to the friendship. While Russia may flout international sanctions, that does not mean it will rush to help North Korea expand its nuclear arsenal. Russia can extract concessions without giving up its most sensitive technology; as its own production ramps up, its need for North Korean shells may wane. South Korea, in turn, can threaten more support for Ukraine to enforce its red lines.
The partnership will probably last as long as the war in Ukraine. But it may not endure beyond it. In the long run, South Korea is a more attractive economic partner; it was Russia’s fifth-largest export destination in 2021. Russia seems keen to keep the door open: its ambassador to Seoul recently said he expects South Korea to be “first among unfriendly countries to return to the ranks of friendly countries”. Few Russians want to be associated with North Korea, which they consider a synonym for dysfunction, in contrast to the economic powerhouse that is China.
Nordkorea verkar fortfarande inte ha fått betalt - precis som Iran alltjämt väntar på sina Su-35-plan. Dessutom
hotar Sydkorea med militära leveranser:
Yonhap News Agency skrev:Among potential weapons under consideration are 155-mm artillery shells, as well as air defense systems, which are needed in Ukraine, according to government sources.
Seoul officials have maintained strategic ambiguity regarding the types of weapons, seen as a diplomatic move to leverage the option to pressure Moscow to refrain from transferring key military technology to Pyongyang.
Vem kan lita på Ryssland? Saudiarabien har betalat ett högt pris för sina produktionsminskningar. Då uppskattas det inte att andra fuskar med kvoterna:
OPEC+ Says Goodbye to Its $100-a-Barrel Oil Quest
Bloomberg skrev:After relentlessly pursuing $100-a-barrel oil, the OPEC+ cartel has all but thrown in the towel. Whether the U-turn is a tactical retreat, or a strategic shift, is still unclear. But for now its impact would be the same: Oil prices would be somewhat lower and global inflation would ease.
Over the weekend, the group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced a deal that, on paper, prolongs its complex layers of cumulative production cuts well into 2025. But read the fine print, and the agreement looks different. Under the pact, OPEC+ members will be able to start adding more barrels into the market from October, with significant increases next year
[...]
For all that, Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to average more than $96 a barrel this year to square the government books, up from an average of $80 from 2000 to 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund. Year-to-date, Brent crude has averaged $83.50. Granted, Riyadh can live with less: It can run a fiscal deficit, taking on debt or selling assets to fill the gap; it can also cut spending or raise taxes. The kingdom has already done all three.
[...]
The biggest issue for the kingdom is that the oil market doesn’t look like it’s about to turn around. By keeping oil prices artificially high, Riyadh has been subsidizing higher-cost producers such as those in the US shale-oil patch. Sacrificing market share works if one achieves higher prices in exchange — but Saudi Arabia is so far getting the worst of two possible outcomes: low production and relatively low prices. Riyadh is currently pumping about 9 million barrels a day. Excluding a brief period during the pandemic, that’s the lowest in more than a decade.
Saudiernas oljekartell tycks slutligen ha gett upp försöken att pressa upp oljepriset. Samtidigt tappar 1900-talets dominerande energikälla mark till
kineserna:
Bloomberg skrev:The best way to think about this is to consider what oil companies ultimately provide the world. It’s not really crude or natural gas, but the vital ingredient locked up in the chemical bonds of those hydrocarbons: energy. The manufacturers of solar equipment, similarly, aren’t in the final analysis providing us with panels of silicon and glass, but machines that can harvest power from the sun. The activities of each group of companies provide a fresh flow of useful energy to the world every year. And by many measures, the solar companies have already overtaken Big Oil.
[...]
Since the first industrial revolution raised coal-rich Britain, Germany and the US to dominance, and the rise of crude brought power and wealth to Russia and the Middle East while extending America’s global lead, the nations that controlled the headwaters of these energy flows have been the hegemons of each succeeding century.
Right now, seven Chinese companies have a bigger stake in the power source of the 21st century than the Seven Sisters of oil that dominated the 20th. If you want to understand the roots of the geopolitical angst driving Washington’s crackdown on China’s clean technology, it’s impossible to ignore that fact.
UK, Tyskland och USA kontrollerade dåtiden. USA, Ryssland och Mellanöstern kontrollerar nutiden. Kina väntas kontrollera framtiden. Är framtiden
redan här?
