Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Lennart Petersen]

Styrränta på 16% smaka på den mackan.
Och verklig inflation är det väl ingen som vet någon siffra. Lögnmaskineriet kör sina siffror, verkligen något annat.
Men något från verkligheten bör väl framgå av butikernas priser. Och de tålmodiga ryssarna anpassar sig alltid på något märkligt sätt , odlar grönsaker på sina små datjor och överlever allt.

[Enceladus]

Lillefar Stalin tänkte sig ju att skjuta av i stort sett hela Politbyrån och ersätta med yngre förmågor, man liemannen hann före. Så drastiska metoder kunde inte Brezjnev ta till.

The Arrest of Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Has Broken a Taboo

About eighteen months ago, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the infamous head of the Wagner mercenary group, launched a campaign against Shoigu with Zolotov’s backing. The Rosgvardiya group was ready and waiting with two candidates to replace him: Dyumin and General Sergei Surovikin, who is popular in army circles.

But Shoigu managed to fight back and even settle some scores with his opponents. Prigozhin was killed in mysterious circumstances soon after staging an unsuccessful mutiny, while Surovikin fell from grace and was dismissed. Later, the defense minister managed to get firmly back into the president’s good books when the Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer proved unsuccessful and the Russian military managed to regain the initiative.

[...]

The issue is not just that there are fewer resources to go around because of the war and sanctions. The ongoing state of war and uncertain future mean that the elites cannot make long-term plans, which encourages them to flout the old rules, live for today, and undertake power moves to score a win against their rivals.

Hela havet stormar i maktens korridorer. När Putin blir bedagad passar de olika klanerna på att underminera varandra.

Russia extends mandatory forex revenue sale requirement until end of April 2025

Russia will extend capital controls that help prop up the rouble for one year until April 30, 2025, the government said on Saturday.

[...]

The controls, first introduced by presidential decree in October 2023, require dozens of undisclosed exporting firms to deposit no less than 80% of foreign currency earnings with Russian banks, and then sell at least 90% of those proceeds on the domestic market within two weeks.

The central bank has long voiced doubts over the controls' efficacy, disagreeing publicly with the government over the issue.

Ryssland kräver fortsatt konvertering till rubel. Således växer motsättningarna även mellan landets teknokratiska institutioner.

Updated: Houthi Missile Damages Shadow Tanker Carrying Russian Oil

A tanker traveling in the Red Sea was damaged when the Houthis launched two attacks today. It is the third consecutive day in which they have launched new attacks after a nearly two-week pause. The Houthi missile hit a tanker operating in the so-called shadow fleet and late today U.S. Central Command confirmed two tankers had been targeted.

[...]

The second attack, which may have consisted of two missiles, targeted the Andromeda Star and is reported to have caused minor damage. The vessel was transmitting its AIS signal and was posting messages of no contact with Israel and that it was sailing Russia to India. According to the U.S. report, none of the crew were injured and the vessel continued on its voyage to India.

[...]

Late today a Houthi spokesperson claimed responsibility for an attack only on the Andromeda Star (115,600 dwt). The vessel is a 15-year-old tanker that in March was involved in a collision off Denmark. Bloomberg reported earlier today that the tanker had presented false insurance documents to the Danish authorities and that it was unclear if it was traveling with valid insurance. The Houthi however are calling the vessel a "British oil ship," which is consistent with their previous use of outdated data for some of their targeting.

Samtidigt hotas Rysslands livlina av Houthi-rebellerna. Vidare räddar gallerpansar knappast landets oljedepåer.

[Enceladus]

Chechen leader Kadyrov suffering from pancreatic necrosis, says Russian media outlet

The Russian socio-political newspaper Novaya Gazeta Europe has reported that Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is seriously ill with pancreatic necrosis with no hope of recovery. [The Chechen Republic, also known as Chechnya, is a federal subject of the Russian Federation; the Ukrainian parliament has recognised it as the temporarily Russian-occupied territory of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria – ed.]

Ukraina hoppas däremot att Kadyrovs hälsoproblem får Ryssland att flytta fokus och resurser till Tjetjenien.

Why Ramzan Kadyrov’s demise could plunge Putin into a new war

Considering the other crises on his desk, Putin will try to arrange a smooth succession. Kadyrov, who succeeded his father, hoped to build a dynasty, elevating his oldest son, Akhmat. However, he is just 18 — even though this did not stop his father appointing him Chechnya’s minister for sport and youth — and the law stipulates that the head of the Chechen Republic must be at least 30.

[...]

This is why Kadyrov’s likely death matters so much. Stability in Chechnya was bought after the war through both massive federal subsidies — to buy off Kadyrov and the rest of the Chechen elite — and a balance of terror between rival armed camps, all of whom pledged loyalty to Kadyrov, but mistrust each other.

If attempts to install a new leader cause splits in the Chechen elite, then this is likely to become not just a political but an armed dispute. In the words of one Russian political commentator, “There are too many men with guns and grudges there to be able to assume that things won’t turn bloody.”

Rysslandskännaren Mark Galeotti skriver att Kadyrovs möjliga hädanfärd kan öppna en ny front.
Ukraina gnuggar händerna.

Russia arrests two more journalists - reports

A journalist for Forbes Russia, Sergei Mingazov, was also arrested this week. He is accused of criticising the Russian army. In 2022 Russia passed a law imposing a jail term of up to 15 years for spreading "fake" news about the military.

Mr Karelin, 41, has worked for the Associated Press and German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle. Mr Gabov is a freelance producer who has worked for organisations including Reuters.

[...]

Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich has been held for over a year on espionage charges. On Tuesday, a Moscow court denied the US citizen's appeal against the extension of his pre-trial detention.

Samtidigt blir det allt svårare att vara journalist i Ryssland. Putin har mycket att frukta av det fria ordet!

Nä, det är väl snarare den tyska statsledningen som borde oroa sig. I synnerhet som det finns säkrare lösningar kommersiellt tillgängliga.

Ukraine spy agency says Telegram platform blocks its key bots

Ukraine's military spy agency GUR said on Monday that the management of the Telegram messaging platform has blocked a number of official bots that opposed Russia's military aggression against Ukraine.

[...]

The Dubai-based Telegram messaging app, one of the most popular social media platforms, was founded by Russian-born Pavel Durov, who left Russia in 2014 after he refused to comply with government demands to shut down opposition communities on another social media platform, which he had sold.

[...]

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy posts his daily video addresses on the app, while his armed forces warn of air raids and document battlefield developments. The Kremlin announces President Vladimir Putin's activities on Telegram, while Russia's opposition rallies for support.

Det är nog den ukrainska statsledningen som borde oroa sig. Tyskland befinner sig inte i krig, men det gör Ukraina.

Telegram's Durov Tells Tucker Carlson That Kremlin Pressure Forced Him Out of Russia

Telegram founder Pavel Durov said he fled Russia over Kremlin pressure to share Ukrainian pro-democracy protesters’ personal data in 2013 in a rare interview with U.S. right-wing journalist Tucker Carlson.

[...]

Durov denied concerns that Telegram, which is highly influential in Russian-speaking countries, was controlled by the Russian state and suggested that his Western competitors may have spread the rumor over fears about its growth.

[...]

The app, which touts itself as a safe and secure communications tool, does not use end-to-end encryption by default.

Går det verkligen att lita på att Kremls föredragna meddelandeplattform är "geopolitiskt neutral"?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Nä, det är väl snarare den tyska statsledningen som borde oroa sig. I synnerhet som det finns säkrare lösningar kommersiellt tillgängliga.

Ukraine spy agency says Telegram platform blocks its key bots

Ukraine's military spy agency GUR said on Monday that the management of the Telegram messaging platform has blocked a number of official bots that opposed Russia's military aggression against Ukraine.

[...]

The Dubai-based Telegram messaging app, one of the most popular social media platforms, was founded by Russian-born Pavel Durov, who left Russia in 2014 after he refused to comply with government demands to shut down opposition communities on another social media platform, which he had sold.

[...]

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy posts his daily video addresses on the app, while his armed forces warn of air raids and document battlefield developments. The Kremlin announces President Vladimir Putin's activities on Telegram, while Russia's opposition rallies for support.

Det är nog den ukrainska statsledningen som borde oroa sig. Tyskland befinner sig inte i krig, men det gör Ukraina.

Telegram's Durov Tells Tucker Carlson That Kremlin Pressure Forced Him Out of Russia

Telegram founder Pavel Durov said he fled Russia over Kremlin pressure to share Ukrainian pro-democracy protesters’ personal data in 2013 in a rare interview with U.S. right-wing journalist Tucker Carlson.

[...]

Durov denied concerns that Telegram, which is highly influential in Russian-speaking countries, was controlled by the Russian state and suggested that his Western competitors may have spread the rumor over fears about its growth.

[...]

The app, which touts itself as a safe and secure communications tool, does not use end-to-end encryption by default.

Går det verkligen att lita på att Kremls föredragna meddelandeplattform är "geopolitiskt neutral"?

Alla statsledningar i Europa bör oroa sig, eftersom vi befinner oss i (hybrid)krig med Ryska Federationen.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Russia arrests two more journalists - reports

A journalist for Forbes Russia, Sergei Mingazov, was also arrested this week. He is accused of criticising the Russian army. In 2022 Russia passed a law imposing a jail term of up to 15 years for spreading "fake" news about the military.

Mr Karelin, 41, has worked for the Associated Press and German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle. Mr Gabov is a freelance producer who has worked for organisations including Reuters.

[...]

Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich has been held for over a year on espionage charges. On Tuesday, a Moscow court denied the US citizen's appeal against the extension of his pre-trial detention.

Samtidigt blir det allt svårare att vara journalist i Ryssland. Putin har mycket att frukta av det fria ordet!

Allt svårare? Det går överhuvud tagit inte, och det är på sätt och vis förvånande att någon ens försöker, även de är värda respekt. Men de kan knappast räkna med någonting annat än att (i bästa fall) bli martyrer.

Alla diktatorer fruktar det fria ordet, förstås. Och en gammal KGB-are förnekar sig aldrig.

[Enceladus]

Alla statsledningar i Europa bör oroa sig, eftersom vi befinner oss i (hybrid)krig med Ryska Federationen.

The Czech illegals: Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe

For example, Unit 29155 member Alexey Kapinos, whom Šapošnikov described to Czech investigators as “a family friend,” flew to Thessaloniki on a diplomatic passport on April 25, 2014. Just a day earlier, Kapinos’ GRU associates, all traveling under fake identities, arrived in Bulgaria. According to a joint investigation by The Insider and Bellingcat, which has since been corroborated by indictments from Bulgarian prosecutors, Unit 29155 poisoned the Bulgarian arms dealer Emilian Gebrev with an unidentified organophosphate substance at the time of this trip.

[...]

As previously disclosed by The Insider, at the time of his poisoning Gebrev was seen as a consequential supplier of ammunition to the Ukraine Army, then reconstituting itself following Russia’s seizure of Crimea and orchestration of a plausibly deniable “separatist” insurgency in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Gebrev says that shortly before being poisoned he stopped supplying Ukraine with ammunition in voluntary compliance with the Minsk Accords, two serially violated ceasefire agreements signed in September 2014 and February 2015 by Ukraine, Russia, and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Two sources active in weapons procurement in Ukraine at the time told The Insider that immediately after Gebrev’s poisoning, Šapošnikov offered Ukrainian government buyers “a reliable replacement” for the Bulgarian arms merchant. In the event, Kyiv never purchased from the supplier suggested by Šapošnikov due to the deficient quality of his inventory.

[...]

The Šapošnikovs were initially confronted by Czech investigators in 2021 with the array of incriminating overlaps between their actions, meetings, and communications with Unit 29155 and the explosions not only in Czechia, but also at arms warehouses in Bulgaria. As The Insider was the first to report, Unit 29155’s first kinetic operation on EU and NATO soil took place in the Bulgarian village of Lovnidol in 2011, after other operatives from the unit, using homemade detonators, blew up yet another EMCO consignment of artillery shells recently transported from the Vrbětice facility. Bulgaria was subsequently the target of 6 additional bombings or acts of arson, all perpetrated by Unit 29155.

Hybridkrig är väl bara förnamnet. Dessvärre blundar de flesta västerländska politiker för problemet.

Estonia blames Russia for GPS interference that forces Finnair to suspend flights

Finnish airline Finnair today suspended flights to Tartu, Estonia, due to interference with GPS signals over the Baltic Sea region that Estonian authorities blamed on Russia.

The airport at Estonia's second city relies solely on a GPS signal for approach and landing.

[...]

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called the GPS jamming a “hybrid attack” and blamed Russia — saying he intends to raise the issue at the EU and NATO.

Enligt signaturen "Markus Jonsson" ligger GPS-störaren vid Sankt Petersburg. Vad blir Natos respons?

[Enceladus]

En Radio Free Europe-intervju med RUSI:s expert Tom Keatinge beskriver att betydligt mer behöver göras i sanktionsväg mot Ryssland, speciellt när det gäller att komma åt Rysslands finansiella flöden. Men är Nordamerika och Europa beredda att göra det, även om det skadar den egna ekonomin:

Putin’s fuel problem: How Ukraine is sapping Russia’s diesel and gasoline

Diesel prices for Russian consumers have skyrocketed, rising almost 10 percent in the past week alone, according to the government’s figures. Petrol costs have also hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent from the start of the year as supply tightens and more and more facilities are forced to suspend production.

[...]

As a result, Moscow has scaled back its fuel exports to near-historic lows, shipping just over 712,000 tons of diesel and gasoil last week, compared to more than 844,000 during the same week in 2023.

[...]

“Ukraine’s ‘physical sanctions’ can accelerate the actual ones,” Maria Shagina, an expert on the Russian economy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said. “Kyiv has found Moscow’s technological vulnerability and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries speed up the impact of Western sanctions which have seen those refineries already struggle to replace Western equipment, spare parts and software.”

Ukrainas drönarattacker förstärker de västerländska sanktionerna. I USA hade ovanstående prisökningar inneburit en dödsstöt för den sittande presidenten!

Den ryska ekonomin har stora problem som bara kommer att öka med tiden. Putin kan dock inte stanna tiden. Verkligheten kommer ikapp förr eller senare.

How Might the Kremlin Respond to Aid Package for Ukraine?

At the same time, should Ukraine, leveraging Western support, do its homework in terms of mobilization, fortification, and frontline defense, the Kremlin will be forced to react. Putin has committed to record-breaking war expenditure of 6 percent of GDP (and combined defense and national security expenditures exceeding 8 percent) in 2024. Next year, a gradual decline is anticipated. If Ukraine succeeds in pushing back against the Russian army, it could prompt Moscow to plan for even higher military spending in 2025 than the currently projected 5 percent of GDP. The Kremlin possesses the resources for this, albeit at considerable medium-term economic cost.

[...]

The current favorable budgetary situation and Russia’s adeptness at circumventing sanctions have in the medium term postponed Putin’s need to make tough decisions, namely whether to persist in increasing military spending, making lavish payments to the public, and maintaining macroeconomic stability through manageable inflation. The solution to this trilemma already looks impossible but lays beyond the Kremlin’s planning horizon.

The Russian economy increasingly resembles a marathon runner battling the flu yet bolstered by steroids, propelling them forward in the race. Currently around the 15th kilometer, the runner faces slim odds of winning but persists, sustained by the performance-enhancing effects of the steroids. Even though the Kremlin won’t win this marathon, Russia’s finances appear stable, meaning constant support to Ukraine by the West will remain essential beyond 2025. The U.S. and its allies should also redouble efforts to reduce Russia’s ability to circumvent sanctions and bathe in export revenues that will ultimately bloat its military spending.

Prokopenko fortsätter på samma spår. Putin kan inte stanna tiden, men väst måste ändå göra mer för att vänta ut honom. Är Afghanistan en bra jämförelse?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

En Radio Free Europe-intervju med RUSI:s expert Tom Keatinge beskriver att betydligt mer behöver göras i sanktionsväg mot Ryssland, speciellt när det gäller att komma åt Rysslands finansiella flöden. Men är Nordamerika och Europa beredda att göra det, även om det skadar den egna ekonomin:

Putin’s fuel problem: How Ukraine is sapping Russia’s diesel and gasoline

Diesel prices for Russian consumers have skyrocketed, rising almost 10 percent in the past week alone, according to the government’s figures. Petrol costs have also hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent from the start of the year as supply tightens and more and more facilities are forced to suspend production.

[...]

As a result, Moscow has scaled back its fuel exports to near-historic lows, shipping just over 712,000 tons of diesel and gasoil last week, compared to more than 844,000 during the same week in 2023.

[...]

“Ukraine’s ‘physical sanctions’ can accelerate the actual ones,” Maria Shagina, an expert on the Russian economy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said. “Kyiv has found Moscow’s technological vulnerability and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries speed up the impact of Western sanctions which have seen those refineries already struggle to replace Western equipment, spare parts and software.”

Ukrainas drönarattacker förstärker de västerländska sanktionerna. I USA hade ovanstående prisökningar inneburit en dödsstöt för den sittande presidenten!

Det går överhuvud taget inte att jämföra Putin-diktaturen med det fossildrogade USA.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

How Might the Kremlin Respond to Aid Package for Ukraine?

At the same time, should Ukraine, leveraging Western support, do its homework in terms of mobilization, fortification, and frontline defense, the Kremlin will be forced to react. Putin has committed to record-breaking war expenditure of 6 percent of GDP (and combined defense and national security expenditures exceeding 8 percent) in 2024. Next year, a gradual decline is anticipated. If Ukraine succeeds in pushing back against the Russian army, it could prompt Moscow to plan for even higher military spending in 2025 than the currently projected 5 percent of GDP. The Kremlin possesses the resources for this, albeit at considerable medium-term economic cost.

[...]

The current favorable budgetary situation and Russia’s adeptness at circumventing sanctions have in the medium term postponed Putin’s need to make tough decisions, namely whether to persist in increasing military spending, making lavish payments to the public, and maintaining macroeconomic stability through manageable inflation. The solution to this trilemma already looks impossible but lays beyond the Kremlin’s planning horizon.

The Russian economy increasingly resembles a marathon runner battling the flu yet bolstered by steroids, propelling them forward in the race. Currently around the 15th kilometer, the runner faces slim odds of winning but persists, sustained by the performance-enhancing effects of the steroids. Even though the Kremlin won’t win this marathon, Russia’s finances appear stable, meaning constant support to Ukraine by the West will remain essential beyond 2025. The U.S. and its allies should also redouble efforts to reduce Russia’s ability to circumvent sanctions and bathe in export revenues that will ultimately bloat its military spending.

Prokopenko fortsätter på samma spår. Putin kan inte stanna tiden, men väst måste ändå göra mer för att vänta ut honom. Är Afghanistan en bra jämförelse?

Det viktigaste i artikeln ovan, ingressen, utelämnas givetvis i ovanstående citat

The West’s delay in extending aid to Ukraine has bolstered Putin’s sense of assurance. War fatigue is palpable in the West, while Russia possesses ample resources, both human and financial. From the Kremlin’s standpoint, U.S. aid may not directly challenge Russian military superiority in Ukraine, but could heighten the costs associated with maintaining it, thereby postponing Russia’s victory. Indeed, given the difficulties in getting the aid package approved by U.S. Congress, Putin may view this one as potentially the last.

Det intressanta här är att detta krigt har föregåtts av tre decenniers felbedömningar, önsketänkade och strutsbeteenden gentemot Ryssland, både från USA (som varit upptaget med diverse krigsäventyr) och Europa (som inte velat tro på annat än "vargen kommer"-resonemang, inte ens när krigsutbrottet stod för dörren. Jag har nu fått i min hand Wilhelm Agrells utmärkta bok "Tid för krig" som jag nämnde här viewtopic.php?p=419538#p419538 och som ingående dissekerar detta. Likheterna med 1930-talet är betydande här.

Detta ligger också bakom USA:s och Natos "strategic dithering" och drip-drop-insatser, något jag pekade på här: viewtopic.php?p=417684#p417684

och som också beskrivs här

Even with the arrival of F-16 jets at some point in the future, it is beginning to seem all too probable that the jets will not be equipped with a full array of weapons. It would seem that the West will continue to arm the Ukrainians well enough that they can keep fighting and dying, but not well enough that they can actually win.

Vladimir Putin has managed to frighten Joe Biden and Olaf Scholz into backing down.

Som stämmer ganska väl överens med denna artikel:

En tänkvärd artikel från Kyiv Independent om för lite och för sent: The West lacks political will to ensure Ukraine’s victory

Inte undra på att Stoltenberg säger som han gör: Stoltenberg: Ukraine's trust in NATO 'dented' by aid delays (Kyiv Independent)

NATO has "not delivered what we have promised" and delays in aid to Kyiv have "put a dent" into Ukraine's trust of the military alliance, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on April 30.

Ukraine has faced a worsening situation on the battlefield in recent weeks as well as an increase in successful Russian aerial attacks, both compounded by delays in Western assistance, particularly the months-long wait for the latest U.S. aid package. The European Union also fell short of its target of providing Ukraine with one million rounds of artillery shells by March.

Speaking to Reuters as he traveled out of Ukraine after a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky on April 29, the NATO chief said an overhaul of how international military aid was coordinated was required.

"We need a more robust, institutionalized framework for our support to ensure predictability, to ensure more accountability and to ensure burden-sharing," he said.

"Of course, the fact that we have not delivered what we promised has put a dent ... into the trust."

Hur blev det med nu Patriot eller SAMP/T-system?

[Enceladus]

Russia's Gazprom swings to $6.9 bln 2023 loss as sales to Europe plummet

Russia's natural gas producing giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM) plunged to a net loss of 629 billion roubles ($6.9 billion) last year from a net profit of 1.2 trillion roubles in 2022, it said on Thursday, as gas sales to Europe more than halved.

Analysts had expected net income of 447 billion roubles, according to Interfax news agency.

[...]

Russia's gas exports to Europe, once its primary export market, have fallen sharply because of the political fallout from the conflict in Ukraine, while Gazprom, which has a monopoly on piping gas abroad, has been the most tangible victim of Western sanctions.

Det blev en brakförlust för den ryska gasjätten Gazprom, och resultatet blev faktiskt värre än någon kunde föreställa sig. Kina blir inte heller räddaren i nöden:

Also reminder that in 2025 Gazprom will lower gas prices for sales to China to 243,7 USD, in 2026 to 233 USD and in 2027 to 227,8 USD.

Även på den gamla goda tiden betalade Tyskland dubbelt så mycket, och då tas ingen hänsyn till tio års inflation!

F.ö. övrig så spelar en storkonflikt i mellanöstern inte någon "i händerna". Utom möjligen Netanyahu, förstås:

Oil-Watchers Expect OPEC+ to Extend Supply Cuts Into Second Half

Group leader Saudi Arabia needs prices near $100 a barrel, the International Monetary Fund estimates, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spends lavishly on futuristic cities and top-flight sports players. Co-leader Russia also requires revenues as President Vladimir Putin continues to wage war on Ukraine.

[...]

OPEC’s secretariat pledged in a report that the group will closely monitor oil markets in the coming summer months for signs of tightening, a shift in tone that some observers took as signaling readiness to add barrels. Meanwhile, Riyadh and Washington are privately negotiating a security pact that, if finalized, could encourage the kingdom adopt a more accommodating oil policy.

[...]

Abu Dhabi faces less financial pressure to keep prices high and has been keen to deploy new investments in production capacity. The emirate currently holds more than 1 million barrels-a-day of idle supply, and blamed the sacrifice imposed by OPEC+ quotas when it lowered economic growth projections last month.

Olja är Rysslands enda räddning - om inte USA lyckas komma överens med Saudiarabien:

US and Saudis Near Defense Pact Meant to Reshape Middle East

Persuading American lawmakers to approve a deal that commits the US to protecting Saudi Arabia militarily would be a daunting prospect for the White House, especially if Israel opts not to join. Many lawmakers remain wary of Prince Mohammed, the kingdom’s 38-year-old de facto ruler, after the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in 2018. They’re also uneasy about the Saudi strategy of lowering oil production, along with other members of the OPEC+ cartel, to prop up prices.

From the Israeli side, Netanyahu leads the most right-wing government in the country’s history and has all but ruled out a two-state solution. His coalition says it still plans to attack Rafah, which the US and Arab states fear would lead to thousands more deaths among Palestinian civilians. Such an attack would also jeopardize prospects for a short-term cease-fire that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken — who met Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Wednesday — says is a priority for President Joe Biden.

Still, the leaders of the three countries have plenty of incentives to reach an agreement soon. For Biden, it’s a chance for a foreign-policy victory before the US presidential election in November. The crown prince would avoid the uncertainty about whether former President Donald Trump would accept a deal if he wins that race, even though Trump’s administration initiated the Abraham Accords that envisioned such alliances between Israel and its neighbors.

Kommer konfrontationen i Mellanöstern återigen att spela Ukraina i händerna?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

US and Saudis Near Defense Pact Meant to Reshape Middle East

Persuading American lawmakers to approve a deal that commits the US to protecting Saudi Arabia militarily would be a daunting prospect for the White House, especially if Israel opts not to join. Many lawmakers remain wary of Prince Mohammed, the kingdom’s 38-year-old de facto ruler, after the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in 2018. They’re also uneasy about the Saudi strategy of lowering oil production, along with other members of the OPEC+ cartel, to prop up prices.

From the Israeli side, Netanyahu leads the most right-wing government in the country’s history and has all but ruled out a two-state solution. His coalition says it still plans to attack Rafah, which the US and Arab states fear would lead to thousands more deaths among Palestinian civilians. Such an attack would also jeopardize prospects for a short-term cease-fire that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken — who met Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Wednesday — says is a priority for President Joe Biden.

Still, the leaders of the three countries have plenty of incentives to reach an agreement soon. For Biden, it’s a chance for a foreign-policy victory before the US presidential election in November. The crown prince would avoid the uncertainty about whether former President Donald Trump would accept a deal if he wins that race, even though Trump’s administration initiated the Abraham Accords that envisioned such alliances between Israel and its neighbors.

Kommer konfrontationen i Mellanöstern återigen att spela Ukraina i händerna?

Det finns i alla fall (minst) en som har personligt intresse av att hålla igång det kriget. Gissa vem!

[Enceladus]

I ovanstående tyskspråkiga artikel avslöjar en före detta FSB-anställd att Ryssland har använt det kemiska vapnet klorpikrin i Cherson-området, dock utan större framgång. Vidare uppges Putin oroa sig över en kupp, vilket han i och för sig har gjort i åratal.

USA anklagar Ryssland för att ha använt kemiska vapen

Enligt USA:s utrikesministerium har Ryssland använt klorpikrin mot ukrainska styrkor och därmed brutit mot internationella förbud gällande kemiska vapen.

[...]

”Det handlar inte om någon isolerad händelse att dylika kemikalier har varit i bruk. Bakom det ligger troligtvis ryska försök att driva ukrainska styrkor ur positioner där de förskansat sig”, skriver utrikesministeriet.

Klorpikrin änvändes som kemiskt stridsmedel redan under första världskriget. Det har egenskaper som gör att det liknar både tårgaser och lungskadande ämnen, och framkallar kvävningskänslor och kräkningar.

USA bekräftar att Ryssland har använt det kemiska vapnet klorpikrin mot ukrainska styrkor. Däremot kan Ryssland ställas till svars för sina grymheter i Syrien:

Ryssland anklagas för attack mot sjukhus i Syrien – blir fråga för FN

Klagomålet, som lämnades in på onsdagen, fokuserar på en serie flyganfall i maj 2019 mot det kirurgiska sjukhuset i staden Kafr Nabl, cirka fem mil söder om Idlib.

[...]

Grymheter i Syrien har aldrig tagits upp i den Internationella brottmålsdomstolen i Haag (ICC) eftersom Syrien inte är medlem i den. Ryssland som inte heller är medlem har dessutom hindrat FN:s säkerhetsråd från att anmäla brott i Syrien till ICC.

– Om det blir framgångsrikt kan klagomålet bli första gången Moskva ställs till svars inför någon internationell domstol eller domstol för kränkningar som begicks i Syrien, säger en representant för Open Society Justice Initiative.

Samtidigt väntar offren till brutala kemvapenattacker i Syrien fortfarande på upprättelse. Regimen använde sarin-, klor- och senapsgas mot civilbefolkningen.

Det finns i alla fall (minst) en som har personligt intresse av att hålla igång det kriget. Gissa vem!

Trump? En uppgörelse mellan Biden och MBS skulle dessutom kunna bli sista spiken i kistan för den ryska ekonomin!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det finns i alla fall (minst) en som har personligt intresse av att hålla igång det kriget. Gissa vem!

Trump? En uppgörelse mellan Biden och MBS skulle dessutom kunna bli sista spiken i kistan för den ryska ekonomin!

Hahaha. Ja, det beror väl på vem som sitter i Vita Huset om drygt 8 månader.

[Enceladus]

American Aid Alone Won’t Save Ukraine: To Survive, Kyiv Must Build New Brigades—and Force Moscow to Negotiate

Russia will likely be most dangerous in the final months of 2024. By that point, having weathered months of Russian offensive operations, Ukrainian forces will be stretched thin, their air defenses depleted. Russia will likely have enough troops to rotate its units to allow for successive offensives in the fall.

But Russian capabilities are not unlimited. Moscow has made some industrial and military choices that are likely to restrict its offensive potential over the course of 2025. For one, it has decided not to expand production of artillery barrels, with the result that fewer new guns will be available next year. Based on the current loss rate, Russian stockpiles of armored vehicles will also likely be depleted by the second half of 2025. This means that Russian forces will be entirely dependent on newly produced equipment rather than refurbished equipment from existing stock, severely constraining their ability to replenish weapons systems lost in battle. At the same time, beginning in late 2024, European armaments production will begin to climb steadily as investments made last year and in the first months of this year begin to bear fruit. By 2025, then, supply problems should be less acute for Ukraine and more acute for Russia—if Ukraine can hold on until then.

[...]

The United States and its European allies need to recognize that helping Ukraine negate Russian attacks is not the same as putting Ukraine in a strong negotiating position. The Kremlin is keen for negotiations based on the war’s current dynamics: it believes that once talks are underway, Ukraine’s Western backers will agree to nearly anything, seeing any settlement that can be reached as successful, even if it fails to protect Ukraine in the long term. And Russia’s demand would remain what it has been throughout: a surrender in all but name. For Moscow to truly negotiate, it must be confronted with a situation in which extending the conflict further will present an unacceptable threat to itself. It is only then that Ukraine will be able to extract meaningful concessions.

Russia already faces several pressure points. First, Russia’s battlefield losses of critical systems—such as air defenses—matter, because they form the bulwark of Russia’s conventional deterrence of NATO. Equipping Ukraine to be able to damage or destroy prestige Russian assets is strongly in NATO’s interest. Second, Russia will be unable to fund the war indefinitely. Western sanctions are only one of the tools for damaging the regime’s financial liquidity, and they are less effective than other options. Damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure is likely to have a much greater impact. Although there are good reasons for the West to avoid directly aiding such attacks, that does not mean that Ukraine shouldn’t undertake them.

Third, although the Russian public largely supports the war, there are deep frustrations with the Russian government that can be exploited. So far, Western governments have not aggressively pursued information operations against the Russian government, partly because they are perceived as escalatory and partly because they are not expected to have immediate effect. By contrast, Russia has been conducting active information operations across Europe with the intent of destabilizing the West.

Jack Watling har skrivit en läsvärd artikel på Foreign Affairs. Ryssland har ännu inte nått kulmen, men tiden är ändå inte på dess sida - givet att alla gör mer.

Italy plans to provide Ukraine with additional SAMP/T air defense systems

This will be the second SAMP/T battery to be delivered by Italy, and the country placed an order in February 2024 to purchase an additional number of these systems.

According to the signed contract, Italy is ordering four SAMP/T NG air defense systems for its ground forces as part of the strengthening of Italy’s and NATO’s defense.

The new systems will be equipped with modernized Leonardo EMPAR radars and upgraded Aster 30 Block 1 NT missiles.

Meloni gör i alla fall vad hon kan, trots hennes sällskap: Not one Italy soldier to die in Macron's name says Salvini

China could use wind power dominance to force EU-US rift over Taiwan, warn Dutch

The energy transition offers the EU a “unique opportunity” to reduce energy dependencies from “untrusted suppliers” like Russia, said the report from research institute TNO, which received support from the Dutch government.

“Current trends, however, suggest that the transition to green energy will most likely lead to a new, extensive strategic dependence, namely on China.”

[...]

China would only implement a ban in an “extreme scenario” where its relations with the EU reached “breaking point,” said TNO, with a war over Taiwan one obvious example, and a conflict in the South China Sea another.

Den enes död är den andres bröd - Putin säljer det rep som hänger honom. Men Xi är inte lika dum!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

American Aid Alone Won’t Save Ukraine: To Survive, Kyiv Must Build New Brigades—and Force Moscow to Negotiate

Jack Watling har skrivit en läsvärd artikel på Foreign Affairs. Ryssland har ännu inte nått kulmen, men tiden är ändå inte på dess sida - givet att alla gör mer.

Ja, det var just det. Det är - helt naturligt - många om.... i Watlings analys.

Men sedan har vi det här kortet också


Men Jack Watling är alltid läsvärd, han är en välrenommerad forskare på RUSI.

Det intressanta i Watlings analys, och som Enceladus-kollektivet inte citerar, är att det - genom ryssarnas övertag i luftkriget - är mycket svårt på slagfältet för Ukrainas del, även om ryssarna just nu inte har kapacitet för några stora genombrott. Samt att USA och Nato inte har någon klar bild av vad de vill åstadkomma, och hur.

More than two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its objective in the war remains unchanged: the Kremlin seeks to subjugate Kyiv. Inconstant support and political delays among Ukraine’s international partners have left that outcome all too plausible. If Ukraine is to prevent Russian victory in the longer term, it will need a comprehensive strategy. This means training, equipping, and mobilizing new forces. It means convincing the Kremlin that continuing the war will become increasingly risky to Russia over time. And it means establishing a position of sufficient strength to be able to set forth, on Ukraine’s own terms, the parameters of a lasting peace.

None of these tasks will be straightforward, and none can happen overnight. Nor can Ukraine and its international partners afford to fritter away months formulating a way forward. The United States and its NATO allies will need to make explicit long-term commitments; compelling Russia to negotiate will be especially difficult. But the alternatives are far worse. In the absence of such an overall strategy, the duration of the conflict may be extended, but its trajectory will not.
[.... ]

The U.S. military aid package was passed just in time to stave off a Ukrainian collapse. But to truly shift the direction of the war, it will need to be accompanied by a far more comprehensive strategy to successfully end it. And that must come from Washington, its NATO allies, and Kyiv itself

Hittills har vi inte sett så mycket av det, som jag påpekade här: viewtopic.php?p=419666#p419666

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Italy plans to provide Ukraine with additional SAMP/T air defense systems

This will be the second SAMP/T battery to be delivered by Italy, and the country placed an order in February 2024 to purchase an additional number of these systems.

According to the signed contract, Italy is ordering four SAMP/T NG air defense systems for its ground forces as part of the strengthening of Italy’s and NATO’s defense.

The new systems will be equipped with modernized Leonardo EMPAR radars and upgraded Aster 30 Block 1 NT missiles.

Meloni gör i alla fall vad hon kan, trots hennes sällskap: Not one Italy soldier to die in Macron's name says Salvini

Ja, det var ju inte en dag för tidigt.

Att det är fler i det gänget som hamnat i dåligt sällskap är ju känt redan tidigare:

Italiens vice premiärminister Matteo Salvini. Det är alltså personen till vänster i bilden.


Här har vi däremot Italiens preminärminister till höger i bilden. Som sig bör.

Det verkar vara det system som tidigare var i Slovakien. Nu får Macron skärpa till sig och donera det system som tidigare var i Rumänien.

[Enceladus]

Att det är fler i det gänget som hamnat i dåligt sällskap är ju känt redan tidigare:

Italy’s far-right leader Matteo Salvini fights for political survival

Italy’s deputy premier Matteo Salvini is facing an open revolt against his leadership of the far-right League party after he picked a homophobic, pro-Russia firebrand as top candidate for the upcoming European elections.

[...]

A former member of an elite paratrooper unit, Vannacci was Rome’s military attaché to Moscow when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. After returning to Italy that year, the general published a highly controversial book criticising western liberalism, called “The World Upside Down”.

[...]

By the 2022 general elections, many conservative voters had been won over by Meloni, who unlike Salvini has pledged unwavering support for Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion and has overall come across as a more serious politician. In that vote which led to the current coalition government, Meloni’s party won 26 per cent, while the League dropped to below 9 per cent.

Dåligt sällskap är bara förnamnet. Lyckligtvis har Meloni lyckats utmanövrera Salvini och hans klick!

Kyiv can use British weapons inside Russia - Cameron

During a visit to Kyiv, he said the UK would provide £3bn ($3.75bn) per year for as long as necessary.

"Just as Russia is striking inside Ukraine, you can quite understand why Ukraine feels the need to make sure it's defending itself," Lord Cameron said.

[...]

Mr Peskov also took aim at French President Emmanuel Macron, who said this week that the West would "legitimately" have to consider whether to send ground troops to Ukraine "if the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there were a Ukrainian request".

Både UK och Frankrike trappar upp retoriken. Tyskland behöver däremot en starkare ledare...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Att det är fler i det gänget som hamnat i dåligt sällskap är ju känt redan tidigare:

Italy’s far-right leader Matteo Salvini fights for political survival

Italy’s deputy premier Matteo Salvini is facing an open revolt against his leadership of the far-right League party after he picked a homophobic, pro-Russia firebrand as top candidate for the upcoming European elections.

[...]

A former member of an elite paratrooper unit, Vannacci was Rome’s military attaché to Moscow when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. After returning to Italy that year, the general published a highly controversial book criticising western liberalism, called “The World Upside Down”.

[...]

By the 2022 general elections, many conservative voters had been won over by Meloni, who unlike Salvini has pledged unwavering support for Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion and has overall come across as a more serious politician. In that vote which led to the current coalition government, Meloni’s party won 26 per cent, while the League dropped to below 9 per cent.

Dåligt sällskap är bara förnamnet. Lyckligtvis har Meloni lyckats utmanövrera Salvini och hans klick!

Meloni väntar på Trump. Motsättningarna med Salvini är mera personligt än politiskt betingade. Italiensk politik handlar mycket om det.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Kyiv can use British weapons inside Russia - Cameron

During a visit to Kyiv, he said the UK would provide £3bn ($3.75bn) per year for as long as necessary.

"Just as Russia is striking inside Ukraine, you can quite understand why Ukraine feels the need to make sure it's defending itself," Lord Cameron said.

[...]

Mr Peskov also took aim at French President Emmanuel Macron, who said this week that the West would "legitimately" have to consider whether to send ground troops to Ukraine "if the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there were a Ukrainian request".

Både UK och Frankrike trappar upp retoriken. Tyskland behöver däremot en starkare ledare...

Krig handlar ganska lite om retorik, annars hade Ukraina stått som segrare nu. Tyskland är alltjämt Europas största enskilda bidragsgivare:
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-agai ... t-tracker/

The US has reportedly urged Ukraine to halt its strikes on oil refineries in Russia, fearing it could provoke an escalation in the conflict.

Det är väl snarare USA som behöver en stark ledare. Och det kanske landet kommer att få också, fast inte som man skulle önska.....

[Enceladus]

Allt svårare? Det går överhuvud tagit inte, och det är på sätt och vis förvånande att någon ens försöker, även de är värda respekt. Men de kan knappast räkna med någonting annat än att (i bästa fall) bli martyrer.

Alla diktatorer fruktar det fria ordet, förstås. Och en gammal KGB-are förnekar sig aldrig.

‘When journalists are threatened, democracy dies’

SS: When journalists are threatened, democracy dies. The people of Russia know this more than anyone. The commitment to upholding pluralistic, free, independent information is thus an existential fight for our democratic societies.

[...]

We estimate that Russia has suffered 500,000 military losses, including 150,000 dead. And for what? Two words suffice: for nothing.

Frankrike uppskattar att Ryssland har förlorat 500 000 soldater i Ukraina, varav 150 000 av dem har dött. BBC och Mediazona har bekräftat 50 000 dödsfall.

Således har Putin väldigt mycket att frukta av det fria ordet!