Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

Jaså, är det så? Men nu är det ju det, va, att jag har hört att Newsweek inte är någon trovärdig källa:

Zelensky: ‘We are trying to find some way not to retreat’

President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered a stark message to Congress in an interview on Thursday as Russian missiles were pounding southern Ukraine: Give us the weapons to stop the Russian attacks, or Ukraine will escalate its counterattacks on Russia’s airfields, energy facilities and other strategic targets.

[...]

As Russian drones, missiles and precision bombs break through Ukrainian defenses to attack energy facilities and other essential infrastructure, Zelensky feels he has no choice but to punch back across the border — in the hope of establishing deterrence. An example is Ukraine’s drone strikes against Russian refineries over the past month. I asked Zelensky if U.S. officials had warned against such attacks on energy facilities inside Russia, as has been rumored in Washington.

“The reaction of the U.S. was not positive on this,” he confirmed, but Washington couldn’t limit Ukraine’s deployment of its own home-built weapons. “We used our drones. Nobody can say to us you can’t.”

Zelenskyj bekräftar kravet på vapen för att sluta attackera rysk infrastruktur. Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 15 090 enheter, varav 2 873 stridsvagnar.

U.S. signs off on more bombs, warplanes for Israel

The new arms packages include more than 1,800 MK84 2,000-pound bombs and 500 MK82 500-pound bombs, according to Pentagon and State Department officials familiar with the matter. The 2,000 pound bombs have been linked to previous mass-casualty events throughout Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. These officials, like some others, spoke to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity because recent authorizations have not been disclosed publicly.

The development underscores that while rifts have emerged between the United States and Israel over the war’s conduct, the Biden administration views weapons transfers as off-limits when considering how to influence the actions of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“We have continued to support Israel’s right to defend itself,” said a White House official. “Conditioning aid has not been our policy.”

Däremot fortsätter Biden-administrationen att skicka vapen till Israel, trots att en majoritet av USA:s invånare numera är emot dessa vapenleveranser. Hyckleri?

Taiwan’s Top Diplomat Says U.S. Aid to Ukraine Is Critical for Deterring China

“When people ask us whether it is OK for the United States to abandon Ukraine, the answer is no, because the world is operating not in a black-and-white way, or if you only look at one theater at a time,” he said. “The world is interconnected.”

[...]

If the United States abandons Ukraine, Mr. Wu said, China will “take it as a hint” that if it can keep up sustained action against Taiwan, “the United States is going to back off, the United States and its allies are going to back off.” The thinking among Chinese officials would be this, he said: “OK, since Russia could do that, we can do that as well.”

“So the U.S. determination in providing support to those countries suffering from authoritarian aggression, it is very important,” Mr. Wu said.

Warren Buffett har sagt att det tar 20 år att bygga ett rykte och fem minuter att förstöra det. Försöker USA bevisa det?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

U.S. signs off on more bombs, warplanes for Israel

The new arms packages include more than 1,800 MK84 2,000-pound bombs and 500 MK82 500-pound bombs, according to Pentagon and State Department officials familiar with the matter. The 2,000 pound bombs have been linked to previous mass-casualty events throughout Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. These officials, like some others, spoke to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity because recent authorizations have not been disclosed publicly.

The development underscores that while rifts have emerged between the United States and Israel over the war’s conduct, the Biden administration views weapons transfers as off-limits when considering how to influence the actions of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“We have continued to support Israel’s right to defend itself,” said a White House official. “Conditioning aid has not been our policy.”

Däremot fortsätter Biden-administrationen att skicka vapen till Israel, trots att en majoritet av USA:s invånare numera är emot dessa vapenleveranser. Hyckleri?

I varje fall bidrar detta till att driva "det globala syd" i armarna på den kinesiska kommunistdiktaturen.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Taiwan’s Top Diplomat Says U.S. Aid to Ukraine Is Critical for Deterring China

“When people ask us whether it is OK for the United States to abandon Ukraine, the answer is no, because the world is operating not in a black-and-white way, or if you only look at one theater at a time,” he said. “The world is interconnected.”

[...]

If the United States abandons Ukraine, Mr. Wu said, China will “take it as a hint” that if it can keep up sustained action against Taiwan, “the United States is going to back off, the United States and its allies are going to back off.” The thinking among Chinese officials would be this, he said: “OK, since Russia could do that, we can do that as well.”

“So the U.S. determination in providing support to those countries suffering from authoritarian aggression, it is very important,” Mr. Wu said.

Warren Buffett har sagt att det tar 20 år att bygga ett rykte och fem minuter att förstöra det. Försöker USA bevisa det?

Under tiden rekommenderar jag läsning av denna essäsamling: War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World

[Enceladus]

Exclusive: Iran alerted Russia to security threat before Moscow attack

Iran tipped off Russia about the possibility of a major "terrorist operation" on its soil ahead of the concert hall massacre near Moscow last month, three sources familiar with the matter said.

[...]

It is harder, however, for Russia to dismiss intelligence from diplomatic ally Iran on the attack, which has also raised questions over the effectiveness of Russian security services. Moscow and Tehran, both under Western sanctions, have deepened military and other cooperation during the two-year Ukraine war.

[...]

Challenging the U.S. assertions, Russia has said it believes Ukraine was linked to the attack, without providing evidence. Kyiv has strongly denied the assertion.

Det visar sig att även Iran varnade Ryssland om Moskva-attacken. Nu blir det verkligen pinsamt!

Russia seeks extradition of Ukraine security service head; Ukraine rejects demand

Russia is demanding that Ukraine hand over all people connected with terrorist acts committed in Russia, including the head of the country's SBU Security Service, the foreign ministry said on Sunday.

[...]

A Russian Foreign Ministry statement listed violent incidents that have occurred in Russia since the Kremlin's forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022, including bombings that killed the daughter of a prominent nationalist and a war blogger, and an incident in which a writer was seriously hurt.

[...]

Among those listed in the statement to be handed over are SBU head Vasyl Maliuk, who has acknowledged his service was behind attacks on the bridge linking Crimea to the Russian mainland since the Kremlin's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Russia seized control of Crimea in 2014; the bridge was built after the region was annexed.

Samtidigt kräver Ryssland att Ukrainas säkerhetschef utlämnas. Är detta ett dåligt aprilskämt?

Russia has a plan to “restore” its dominant position in the global launch market

It has been a terrible decade for the Russian launch industry, which once led the world. The country's long-running workhorse, the Proton rocket, ran into reliability issues and will soon be retired. Russia's next-generation rocket, Angara, is fully expendable and still flying dummy payloads on test flights a decade after its debut. And the ever-reliable Soyuz vehicle lost access to lucrative Western markets after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

[...]

"The N1 was far ahead of its time, with its ambitious goals exceeding the technology level of its era," Borisov said. "One issue was control of multiple engines; existing systems couldn't handle synchronous control of so many engines, the main reason why N1 was a fiasco."

But now that Starship has been successful—during its second and third test flights, the first stage of the SpaceX rocket had nominal performance, with all Raptor engines firing as intended—Russia is considering an ultra-heavy booster.

Rysslands rymdprogram är däremot ett dåligt aprilskämt...

Russian military intelligence unit may be linked to 'Havana syndrome', Insider reports

The mysterious "Havana syndrome" ailment that has afflicted U.S. diplomats and spies across the world may be linked to energy weapons wielded by members of a Russian military intelligence sabotage unit, the Insider media group reported.

A U.S. intelligence investigation whose findings were released last year found that it was "very unlikely" a foreign adversary was responsible for the ailment, first reported by U.S. embassy officials in the Cuban capital Havana in 2016.

But Insider, a Russia-focused investigative media group based in Riga, Latvia reported that members of a Russian military intelligence (GRU) unit known as 29155 had been placed at the scene of reported health incidents involving U.S. personnel.

Den grävande nyhetssajten The Insider fortsätter att leverera. Vilken imponerande webbtidning!

Det räcker ju med att läsa den här meningen för att inse vad Johnson är ute efter - att komma åt Biden-regeringen.

... the risks posed by the White House’s decision to pause LNG exports.

Speaker Johnson teases ‘innovations’ to move Ukraine aid forward in House

Johnson laid out the three main components he said should be included in the legislation, including a bipartisan proposal known as the REPO Act. If included, the provision would seek to seize frozen Russian assets and transfer them to the Ukrainian government to fight against the Kremlin — a move that Johnson said would be “pure poetry.”

[...]

“Even President Trump has talked about the loan concept where we’re … not just giving foreign aid, we’re setting up in a relationship where they can provide it back to us when the time is right,” Johnson said.

Johnson also hinted at the idea of approving Ukraine aid in exchange for expanding natural gas shipments — a subtle jab at the Biden administration’s recent decision to freeze the exports of liquefied natural gas exports.

[...]

“We want to unleash American energy, have national gas exports that will un-fund Vladimir Putin’s war effort,” Johnson said.

Mike Johnson borde kanske ha blivit poet!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det räcker ju med att läsa den här meningen för att inse vad Johnson är ute efter - att komma åt Biden-regeringen.

... the risks posed by the White House’s decision to pause LNG exports.

Speaker Johnson teases ‘innovations’ to move Ukraine aid forward in House

Johnson laid out the three main components he said should be included in the legislation, including a bipartisan proposal known as the REPO Act. If included, the provision would seek to seize frozen Russian assets and transfer them to the Ukrainian government to fight against the Kremlin — a move that Johnson said would be “pure poetry.”

[...]

“Even President Trump has talked about the loan concept where we’re … not just giving foreign aid, we’re setting up in a relationship where they can provide it back to us when the time is right,” Johnson said.

Johnson also hinted at the idea of approving Ukraine aid in exchange for expanding natural gas shipments — a subtle jab at the Biden administration’s recent decision to freeze the exports of liquefied natural gas exports.

[...]

“We want to unleash American energy, have national gas exports that will un-fund Vladimir Putin’s war effort,” Johnson said.

Mike Johnson borde kanske ha blivit poet!

Jag refererar även här till denna essä från RUSI: Bracing for 2025: The UK and European Security Under a Trump Presidency

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Exclusive: Iran alerted Russia to security threat before Moscow attack

Iran tipped off Russia about the possibility of a major "terrorist operation" on its soil ahead of the concert hall massacre near Moscow last month, three sources familiar with the matter said.

[...]

It is harder, however, for Russia to dismiss intelligence from diplomatic ally Iran on the attack, which has also raised questions over the effectiveness of Russian security services. Moscow and Tehran, both under Western sanctions, have deepened military and other cooperation during the two-year Ukraine war.

[...]

Challenging the U.S. assertions, Russia has said it believes Ukraine was linked to the attack, without providing evidence. Kyiv has strongly denied the assertion.

Det visar sig att även Iran varnade Ryssland om Moskva-attacken. Nu blir det verkligen pinsamt!

Pinsamhet är en känsla som inte existerar för Putin. Det kan mycket väl varit så att Putin och FSB kände till detta och lät det hända.

Något vi varit inne på tidigare: viewtopic.php?p=419062#p419062

[Enceladus]

Exclusive: Russia's Arctic LNG 2 suspends gas liquefaction amid sanctions, lack of tankers, sources say

Novatek (NVTK.MM), Russia's largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), has suspended production at its Arctic LNG 2 project due to sanctions and a shortage of gas tankers, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

[...]

Separately, the Vedomosti newspaper said on Tuesday that natural gas output at the project had fallen sharply to 83 million cubic metres (mcm) in February due to a delay in the start of LNG shipments.

The sources said production had been 425 mcm in December and 250 mcm in January.

LNG skulle vara räddningen för Rysslands gasexport. Men västerländska sanktioner sätter käppar i hjulet - inte olikt Iran. Nu går det 630 000 rial på en dollar!

Space superpower Russia falls down to earth

The total number of the country's satellite launch orders from Europe and elsewhere fell by 90% following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, leaving the U.S. as the sole superpower in space. Smaller players, including India and China, are now jockeying to expand their presence at Russia's expense.

[...]

Russia's fall as a space superpower has manifested in other areas. Russian cargo spacecraft and crew capsule for the International Space Station have developed coolant leaks since 2022. In 2023, the country's first moon exploration mission in half a century ended in failure after its unmanned lunar lander crashed into the moon.

Russia also faces long-term funding problems. The revenue of Roscosmos plunged to 10.5 billion rubles ($113.7 million) in 2021 from 32.3 billion rubles in 2018. The space agency seems to have fallen deeper into a financial morass as demand for its satellite launch services, a key source of foreign currencies, has evaporated following the Ukraine invasion.

Den ryska rymdsektorn levde länge på gamla meriter, men går nu samma öde till mötes som landets energisektor. Har Ryssland något kvar förutom olja?

Russia's economy is now so isolated that it has few options other than the Chinese yuan for its reserves

In a report released on Friday, the Central Bank of Russia said it sees limited options other than the Chinese yuan for its reserves — because other currencies from countries "not unfriendly" to Russia are even less stable and liquid than the yuan.

"The exchange rates of these currencies are highly volatile, the markets have low liquidity, and in a number of such countries there are restrictions on the movement of capital, which is an obstacle to their use," the Russian central bank said in its report. The bank did not specify which other currencies or countries it was referring to.

"These factors predetermine the key role of the Chinese yuan in the formation of reserve assets," it said. The Russian central bank said the yuan's role as an international currency and its liquidity has risen "noticeably" in recent years.

Det är bara att acceptera rollen som en kinesisk råvarukoloni! Även den tidigare så lukrativa vapenexporten har nästan helt upphört, vilket skildras i två videor:

Av samma skäl som Sverige, antagligen. Oerlikon Contraves, numera Rheinmetall Air Defense, grundades redan 1906.

När den egna försvarsmakten inte längre kan, vill eller har råd att köpa måste man exportera.

Problemet är ju att Schweiz inte vill exportera. Se Peruns andra video!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Även den tidigare så lukrativa vapenexporten har nästan helt upphört,

Av samma skäl som Sverige, antagligen. Oerlikon Contraves, numera Rheinmetall Air Defense, grundades redan 1906.

När den egna försvarsmakten inte längre kan, vill eller har råd att köpa måste man exportera.

Problemet är ju att Schweiz inte vill exportera. Se Peruns andra video!

Det är väl egentligen ganska enkelt. Ryssarna behöver det mesta själva. Inte precis sinnebilden för en pålitlig leverantör. Men man kan bläddra i Rosoboronexports katalog, om man vill. Där finns mycket att förundra sig över.

Schweizarna har en snäv definition av vilka de får exportera till, det har vi berört åtskilliga gånger så det är ingen nytt. Därför flyttar Rheinmetall successivt bort produktionsresurser från landet.

Australiska nästalare klarar jag mig utan, eftersom jag är läskunnig och inte behöver få information audiovisuellt.

[Enceladus]

Schweizarna har en snäv definition av vilka de får exportera till, det har vi berört åtskilliga gånger så det är ingen nytt. Därför flyttar Rheinmetall successivt bort produktionsresurser från landet.

Australiska nästalare klarar jag mig utan, eftersom jag är läskunnig och inte behöver få information audiovisuellt.

I så fall kan skribenten konsultera videornas primärkälla, d.v.s. Sipri. Den årliga vapenexporten från Schweiz har mer än halverats jämfört med för tio år sedan!

Pinsamhet är en känsla som inte existerar för Putin. Det kan mycket väl varit så att Putin och FSB kände till detta och lät det hända.

U.S. told Russia that Crocus City Hall was possible target of attack

The high degree of specificity conveyed in the warning underscores Washington’s confidence that the Islamic State was preparing an attack that threatened large numbers of civilians, and it directly contradicts Moscow’s claims that the U.S. warnings were too general to help preempt the assault.

The U.S. identification of the Crocus concert hall as a potential target — a fact that has not been previously reported — raises new questions about why Russian authorities failed to take stronger measures to protect the venue, where gunmen killed more than 140 people and set fire to the building. A branch of the Islamic State has taken credit for the attack, the deadliest in Russia in 20 years. U.S. officials have publicly said the group, known as Islamic State-Khorasan, or ISIS-K, “bears sole responsibility,” but Russian President Vladimir Putin has tried to pin the blame on Ukraine.

The attack has further dented the image of strength and security that the Russian leader seeks to convey and exposed fundamental weaknesses in the nation’s security apparatus, which has been consumed by more than two years of war in Ukraine. Domestically, Putin’s operatives appear more concerned with silencing political dissent and opposition to the president than rooting out terrorist plots, according to analysts and observers of Russian politics.

[...]

Under the duty to warn policy, the United States has also recently shared terrorism information with another adversary — Iran. In January, U.S. officials warned that the Islamic State was planning to carry out attacks in the country, according to U.S. officials, who said the intelligence was specific enough that it might have helped Iranian authorities disrupt twin suicide bombings that killed at least 95 people in the city of Kerman. The Islamic State, which views Iran’s majority Shiite Muslim population as apostates, attacked a gathering of thousands of mourners as they commemorated the fourth anniversary of the death of Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by a U.S. drone strike in Iraq in 2020.

Har Putin blivit så impopulär att han fruktar den egna befolkningen mer än terrorister? Jämför Iran!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Schweizarna har en snäv definition av vilka de får exportera till, det har vi berört åtskilliga gånger så det är ingen nytt. Därför flyttar Rheinmetall successivt bort produktionsresurser från landet.

Australiska nästalare klarar jag mig utan, eftersom jag är läskunnig och inte behöver få information audiovisuellt.

I så fall kan skribenten konsultera videornas primärkälla, d.v.s. Sipri. Den årliga vapenexporten från Schweiz har mer än halverats jämfört med för tio år sedan!

Visst kan man göra det, om man har svårt att få tiden att gå: https://www.sipri.org/

Annars finns det mer lättillgängliga källor i närtid: Swiss war materiel exports decline in 2023
Det har fluktuerat en hel del genom åren, men den nedgående trenden är tydlig. Jag vet inte om det finns någon som har ifrågasatt det.

Ukrainska medier har ju sin uppfattning om orsakerna klar:
Switzerland loses quarter of its arms exports due to refusal to supply Ukraine

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Europeiska Nato fortsätter sina försök med att Trump-säkra alliansen och stödet till Ukraina, när nu USA sviktar. Frågan är vad man tycker om det i Budapest (eller Bratislava)?

Amid talk of $100B ‘Trump-proof’ Ukraine fund, NATO chief says aid must be ‘more predictable’

Sedan var det ju det där med att utse en efterträdare till Jens Stoltenberg som Natos generalsekreterare. Helst i (vad som åtminstone utåt ser ut som) enighet. Ska det gå att Trump-säkra alliansen kan generalsekreteraren naturligtvis inte vara Trumps nickedocka, även om Trump förstås helst vill vänta med valet i Nato till efter presidentvalet i höst. Det har de europeiska Nato-länderna självklart inget intresse av, speciellt inte om Trump som president gör verklighet av att minimera USA:s roll i alliansen.

Nederländaren Mark Rutte har varit ett ganska självklart namn, eftersom han kommer att lämna dagspolitiken i landet. Men nu har ju de här gossarna lärt sig att det går att utöva utpressning för egna syften (undrar om Robert får vara med också):



Det intressanta är att åtminstone Orban är torped både åt Putin och Trump. Orban tog givetvis upp det här när han träffade Trump i Mar-A-Lago, eftersom han är förbannad på Rutte efter detta: Dutch PM Rutte: No place in EU for Hungary with anti-LGBT law
(lackmuspapper för fascism)

Och i Moskva gnuggas det........

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Samtidigt, i USA: House Republicans push to rename DC international airport after Trump

[Enceladus]

Russia hopes to repair all damaged oil refineries by end of spring

"Repairs at the refineries are ongoing. We are planning to bring a number of refineries out of repair in April-May, possibly by early June. All facilities that were damaged will be put back into operation," Shulginov said.

The attacks by Ukrainian drones on the Russian oil and gas industry were made possible by increasing the flight range and using AI to recognise terrain and targets. At the same time, such drones are fully autonomous and do not require satellite communications.

[...]

The Astrakhan gas processing plant, owned by Gazprom, had emergency shut down production of petroleum products after repairs the day before.

Som vanligt har Ryssland optimistiska prognoser. Ukraina uppges använda AI för att ta sig förbi det ryska luftförsvaret. Samtidigt hotar bränslebrist i Ryssland:

Russian gasoline production the week of 25-31th March rose slightly to 775 000 tons and diesel production dropped a bit to 1618 400 tons. IN 2023 between March 27th and April 2nd gasoline production was 874 800 and diesel production was 1768 900.

Gasoline prices for AI-92 barely moved to from 50,59 to 50,62 rubles per liter. For AI-95 they remained the same at 55,30 rubles and for AI-98 they went from 68,67 to 68,70 rubles. The gasoline recovery is due to the fast repair of the Ryazan refinery:

However even at 775 000 tons Russia's weekly gasoline production remains below consumption and will be dependent on the ~1850 000 tons in storage and Belarus imports. Again much much worse for AI-95 and AI-98 gasoline.

Rysslands energisystem är alltså väldigt känsligt för störningar. Därtill behöver Ryssland göra oplanerade reparationer, vars orsaker och detaljer är oklara:

Two industry sources told Reuters earlier on Tuesday Russia's Astrakhan gas processing plant had halted production of diesel and gasoline on March 31 due to unplanned maintenance.

[...]

Though the capacity of the plant is not hugely significant for Russia, its stoppage will likely add to Moscow's worries around wide-scale outages of refinery capacity due to Ukrainian drone attacks.

[...]

In 2023, it produced 703,000 tons of gasoline, or 1.6% of Russia's total, as well as 492,000 tons of diesel (0.6%) and 299,000 tons of fuel oil (0.7%).

Driftstoppet kommer vid en minst sagt oläglig tidpunkt!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Det finns som sagt olika uppfattningar om vad raffinaderiattackerna kommer att innebära:
Legitimate targets: Can strikes on oil refineries bleed Russia and aid Ukraine on frontline (RBC-Ukraine)

Ett väl så stort problem verkar kunna vara att få tag på reservdelar, alldeles oavsett hur reparationsbehoven uppstått.

I vart fall kommer militärens behov av bränsle alltid att prioriteras.

[Enceladus]

Tänker Europa svara på något sätt? I så fall är det upp till UK och Frankrike - Tyskland kommer knappast att ta på sig ledartröjan när Scholz sitter i förarsätet.

NATO Chief Warns About Iranian, North Korean Arms For Russia

While Washington and other Western officials have repeatedly warned Iran against providing such weaponry to Russia, they have not confirmed that Moscow has taken delivery of the missiles.

Both the G7 and the European Council have said that such a step would lead to major consequences in its relations with Tehran and said third parties who provide weapons could also face further measures.

European diplomats have said potential measures on Iran could include targeting Iran Air, banks in Europe and even the possibility of reimposing UN Security Council sanctions as part of a nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers.

Det kan bli hårda konsekvenser om Iran skickar ballistiska missiler till Ryssland. Irans valuta fortsätter att kollapsa. Dessutom kan Netanyahu vilja eskalera:

Speaking to MEE on condition of anonymity, the foreign policy expert highlighted the erosion of Iran's deterrence, owing to waning political support among its people, which undermines its ability to respond decisively.

[...]

"Israel understands Iran's current limitations and is leveraging them to bolster its deterrence while tarnishing Iran's reputation," he said.

"This affords Israel a win-win scenario: either provoking Iran into war, diverting attention from atrocities in Gaza, drawing the US to the war, as well as guaranteeing Netanyahu's survival, or weakening Iran's deterrence and targeting top Iranian masterminds of the Axis of Resistance without risking direct confrontation."

Såväl USA som UK och Frankrike försvarar Israels attack mot Irans konsulat i Damaskus. Bibi smider medan järnet är varmt. Samtidigt har Iran fler fiender:

This recent attack holds more significance than previous ones for two main reasons: firstly, it occurred shortly after Israel's airstrike in Syria, which killed seven IRGC members, including two senior commanders; and secondly, Jaish al-Adl's previous major attack in January led to a political crisis between Iran and Pakistan. This crisis ensued after Iran targeted what it claimed were militant hideouts inside Pakistan, prompting Pakistan to retaliate by hitting what it alleged were separatist Baluch positions within Iran.

It’s unclear if the regime in Tehran would react in the same manner to the attacks Thursday. Only hours before the Jaish al-Adl ambush, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened Israel with a ‘slap’ for its killing of IRGC commanders in Syria. A similar threat, whether or not it’s followed through, could further complicate the questions facing Khamenei and his soldiers.

The last thing the Islamic Republic needs at the moment is a spat with Pakistan – or worst case scenario, a new front in its ongoing proxy wars. But turning a blind eye to this attack may not be an option either, especially since Jaish al-Adl has killed Iranian military personnel and will almost certainly do so again whenever it can. Moreover, the attack came on the eve of the annual Quds Day, much touted by Tehran. This year, officials were emphasizing the importance of the occasion to support Palestinians across the world.

Har Iran verkligen råd att skicka hundratals ballistiska missiler till Ryssland i detta läge?

[Enceladus]

Det räcker ju med att läsa den här meningen för att inse vad Johnson är ute efter - att komma åt Biden-regeringen.

... the risks posed by the White House’s decision to pause LNG exports.

White House Rejects Tying Ukraine Aid to Reversing Natural Gas Policy

“The president supports the pause on pending, additional approvals of LNG export licenses to evaluate the economic and climate impacts on consumers and communities.”

Reuters reported earlier that US officials were “open” to perhaps lifting the pause on LNG export approvals that the administration implemented in late January, but wanted to see the entire proposal first. The White House said the report “is not true.”

[...]

“If he had no other option, we believe President Biden might sign a bill which merely blocked the pause, as the DOE still could retain discretion over the pace of non-FTA approvals,” Clearview wrote. “However, if the bill were to mandate approvals, we think it could draw a veto.”

Nu dementeras uppgiften att Biden kan tänkas godkänna nya exportlicenser av LNG i utbyte mot stöd till Ukraina. Även EU vill stoppa Norges djuphavsgruvor!

Qatar’s Gas Boost Will Bring Energy Dominance — and Lots of Cash

With a two-phase mega-expansion already underway and an enormous new buildout now on the horizon, the small Gulf nation of Qatar is setting itself up to control about a quarter of all liquefied natural gas by the end of the decade — and with it, a growing share of the world’s influence and wealth.

[...]

And it might not stop there.

“We are going to keep appraising. If there is more that’s available to produce, we will be producing more,” Al-Kaabi said at the press conference broadcasting the news. The only thing that would stop Qatar from expanding further is if it no longer sees the demand for it, he said. “We believe there’s a huge market available there.”

Annars går det ju alltid att köpa från Qatar. Att minska efterfrågan på gas verkar tyvärr vara uteslutet. Däremot innebär detta att det blir mindre kvar för Iran:

Stretching across an immense expanse of 56 trillion cubic meters, South Pars—also referred to as North Dome in Qatar—houses vast gas reserves, 70% of which are deemed recoverable. While two-thirds of the field lie within Qatari waters, the remaining third is situated within Iranian territory. To date, Iran has extracted 2 trillion cubic meters of gas from this field, equivalent to half of Qatar’s current production. The gas-rich Kangan and U-Dalan formations, known as the Khuff formation in Qatar, are nestled at a depth of approximately 3 kilometers. Comprising four layers (K1 to K4) with a thickness of 450 meters, these formations stretch from Iranian to Qatari waters.

Noteworthy is the inclination of this reservoir towards Qatar, with the flow of gas and gas condensates gravitating predominantly towards Qatar from Iran. Both countries are currently producing 650,000 to 700,000 barrels of gas condensate (ultra-light oil) daily from these four layers. Interestingly, Qatar's total gas condensate production volume over the last three decades has been double that of Iran's.

As Qatar's production from this reservoir continues to rise and Iran's output diminishes, the gas reserves of this formation are projected to gradually shift towards Qatar. Additionally, situated at a depth of one kilometer, this field harbors multiple layers of crude oil stretching from Iran to Qatar, making it a shared asset between the two nations.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Dessutom kan Netanyahu vilja eskalera:

Speaking to MEE on condition of anonymity, the foreign policy expert highlighted the erosion of Iran's deterrence, owing to waning political support among its people, which undermines its ability to respond decisively.

[...]

"Israel understands Iran's current limitations and is leveraging them to bolster its deterrence while tarnishing Iran's reputation," he said.

"This affords Israel a win-win scenario: either provoking Iran into war, diverting attention from atrocities in Gaza, drawing the US to the war, as well as guaranteeing Netanyahu's survival, or weakening Iran's deterrence and targeting top Iranian masterminds of the Axis of Resistance without risking direct confrontation."

Såväl USA som UK och Frankrike försvarar Israels attack mot Irans konsulat i Damaskus. Bibi smider medan järnet är varmt. Samtidigt har Iran fler fiender:

This recent attack holds more significance than previous ones for two main reasons: firstly, it occurred shortly after Israel's airstrike in Syria, which killed seven IRGC members, including two senior commanders; and secondly, Jaish al-Adl's previous major attack in January led to a political crisis between Iran and Pakistan. This crisis ensued after Iran targeted what it claimed were militant hideouts inside Pakistan, prompting Pakistan to retaliate by hitting what it alleged were separatist Baluch positions within Iran.

It’s unclear if the regime in Tehran would react in the same manner to the attacks Thursday. Only hours before the Jaish al-Adl ambush, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened Israel with a ‘slap’ for its killing of IRGC commanders in Syria. A similar threat, whether or not it’s followed through, could further complicate the questions facing Khamenei and his soldiers.

The last thing the Islamic Republic needs at the moment is a spat with Pakistan – or worst case scenario, a new front in its ongoing proxy wars. But turning a blind eye to this attack may not be an option either, especially since Jaish al-Adl has killed Iranian military personnel and will almost certainly do so again whenever it can. Moreover, the attack came on the eve of the annual Quds Day, much touted by Tehran. This year, officials were emphasizing the importance of the occasion to support Palestinians across the world.

Har Iran verkligen råd att skicka hundratals ballistiska missiler till Ryssland i detta läge?

Var vänlig låt bli att dra in Israels krigföring i den här tråden! Och sluta upp med att kalla fascisten Netanyahu för "Bibi"!

Eller har någon i kollektivet också fått ett signerat exemplar:

[Enceladus]

Ett väl så stort problem verkar kunna vara att få tag på reservdelar, alldeles oavsett hur reparationsbehoven uppstått.

Russia Is Struggling to Repair Refineries Due to Sanctions

Western firms including America’s UOP and Swiss ABB have supplied parts and equipment to major Russian refineries in the past. After the invasion of Ukraine, they no longer fulfill new orders from Russia, leaving local engineers scrambling to find spare parts and equipment.

One example of such difficulty is Lukoil’s Norsi refinery in Nizhny Novgorod on the Volga River. A turbine malfunctioned there in early January and Russian engineers have struggled to have the equipment replaced since then, according to Reuters sources.

This has left the refinery with a reduced capacity to produce gasoline.

Ja, lyckligtvis tycks schweiziska ABB följa sanktionerna mot Ryssland. Även länder i Russkij mir, "den ryska världen", dumpar det ryska betalningssystemet Mir:

Kyrgyzstan's Elkart Interbank Processing Center said on April 2 that the Central Asian country's banks will stop processing transactions with Russian Mir payment cards as of April 5 due to Western sanctions imposed on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. Last week, another former Soviet republic, Armenia, announced a similar move. In September 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department threatened foreign banks with secondary sanctions for servicing Mir cards, a Russian card-payment system. Earlier, some banks in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam, as well as Samsung Pay and Apple Pay systems, stopped working with Mir cards.

Det finns en viss ironi i namnvalet!

Här är en bättre analys: Russia’s Oil Industry Threatened by Ukrainian Drones, Western Sanctions.

Vakulenko uttalar sig även i den tidigare refererade Reuters-artikeln:

"If the stream of drones continues at this rate and Russian air defences don't improve, Ukraine will be able to cut Russian refining runs quicker than Russian firms will be able to repair them," said Sergey Vakulenko, an expert on Russia's energy industry and non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an international affairs think tank.

[...]

"Drones are tens, if not hundreds of times cheaper than the cost of repairs, which is important in a war of attrition," said Vakulenko, who was a former head of strategy at Russian energy major Gazprom Neft. He left the firm and Russia days after the start of the Ukraine war.

Detta understryker Rysslands behov av (automatkanon)system för att bekämpa dem på ett (kostnads)effektivt sätt!

Eller har någon i kollektivet också fått ett signerat exemplar:

Skribenten borde fråga Biden-administrationen istället: U.S. approved more bombs to Israel on day of World Central Kitchen strikes

The Biden administration approved the transfer of thousands more bombs to Israel on the same day Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed seven aid workers for the charity group World Central Kitchen, three U.S. officials told The Washington Post this week after the incident elicited global condemnation.

The transaction demonstrates the administration’s determination to continue its flow of lethal weaponry to Israel despite Monday’s high-profile killings and growing calls for the United States to condition such support on greater protection for civilians in the war zone. A U.S. citizen was among the dead.

Ukraina blir däremot utan!

[Enceladus]

Europeiska Nato fortsätter sina försök med att Trump-säkra alliansen och stödet till Ukraina, när nu USA sviktar. Frågan är vad man tycker om det i Budapest (eller Bratislava)?

White House signals opposition to NATO-led weapons group for Ukraine

The White House on Wednesday pushed back on a proposal to move the U.S.-led group coordinating weapons delivery for Ukraine under the leadership of NATO.

[...]

“It is bigger than NATO, it’s 50 some-odd nations all around the world, including in the Indo-Pacific — and what brought them together was American leadership,” Kirby said in a Wednesday call with reporters.

[...]

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has proposed the alliance consider leading the Ramstein grouping, viewed as an effort to protect against increased U.S. partisanship over aid for Ukraine. Europe also fears that former President Trump may withdraw support for Kyiv and NATO if successful in securing a second term as president.

Frågan är vad Biden-administrationen tycker om det. Den verkar nämligen ha andra prioriteringar - jag förmodar att Fabian Hoffmann duger som källa:

The West is its own worst enemy. The cowardice and lack of courage among our decision-makers, coupled with a profound absence of historical understanding, might just lead to our downfall.

Mike McCaul says that Sullivan believes that Russia will launch a first nuclear strike against the United States if Ukraine is given too much military aid.

What planet is Jake living on?

Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 15 208 enheter, varav 2 891 stridsvagnar och 23 TOS-1A. Är detta för mycket för Biden-administrationen? Det märks:

Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell recently stated that "Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily." Frontelligence Insight has diligently observed Russian forces, their composition, and available resources. We would like to share several important points:

[...]

3/ Frontelligence Insight has closely monitored multiple Russian units and noted a problem that has become more apparent since 2023 and continues to worsen in 2024: armored losses are being replaced by civilian vehicles such as vans, pickup trucks, and other unarmored vehicles

4/ We documented evidence of the replacement of T-72 tanks of various modifications with T-62 and T-55s in at least one tank unit. While we don't know the situation across all units, occasional videos of T-55 and T-62 in different areas suggest that this is not an isolated case

Som bekant är ryska trupper numera flitiga användare av kinesiska Desertcross 1000-3. Dessa civila terränghjulingar är inte avsedda för militär användning!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Även länder i Russkij mir, "den ryska världen", dumpar det ryska betalningssystemet Mir:

Kyrgyzstan's Elkart Interbank Processing Center said on April 2 that the Central Asian country's banks will stop processing transactions with Russian Mir payment cards as of April 5 due to Western sanctions imposed on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. Last week, another former Soviet republic, Armenia, announced a similar move. In September 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department threatened foreign banks with secondary sanctions for servicing Mir cards, a Russian card-payment system. Earlier, some banks in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam, as well as Samsung Pay and Apple Pay systems, stopped working with Mir cards.

Det finns en viss ironi i namnvalet!

Det gör det säkert, eftersom det ryska ordet "mir" dessutom kan betyda "fred".