Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

Det här kommer ju åtminstone de amerikanska fascisterna att slicka i sig.

Why Putin’s Interview With Tucker Carlson Didn’t Go to Plan

The arrival of conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson in Moscow at the beginning of February to interview Russian President Vladimir Putin sparked a media furore. In the West, there was outrage at Carlson giving a platform to the person responsible for unleashing a brutal and devastating war in Ukraine. But in Russia, the visit was met with euphoria, with state-owned media portraying Carlson as one of the most famous and most influential journalists in the United States.

[...]

Strategically speaking, Putin gave up on the West at the end of 2019 when he convinced himself that whoever was in the White House, Washington would still seek to destroy Russia. That meant Moscow increasingly saw dialogue as a waste of time, and caused Russian politics to descend into a civilizational stand-off with the West.

[...]

The spectacle of the two men talking past one another is symptomatic: the war in Ukraine and its terrible consequences have pushed Russia into an ideological deadlock with the West, and convinced the Kremlin that it is engaged in an existential struggle. Given the broader context, even a dialogue between Putin’s Russia and conservative America is an extremely difficult goal to achieve.

Tatiana Stanovaya håller inte med. Putin lever i sin egen fantasivärld - livrädd för både virus och förgiftning. Julian Waller kommer fram till liknande slutsatser:

Third, I don't think we can understand this interview as some sort of functionalist strategic communication exercise at all. VVP clearly did not care to talk about US political issues, he did not "throw red meat to MAGA" or whatever, he did not rise to the bait several times to get on a cleaner messaging narrative that would sell with an international audience of illiberal or West-skeptical types. At all! It was the above, which means this interview was about what Vladimir Putin himself thought rather than what he thought would sell best. That's incredibly unusual for an interview like this.

[...]

Finally, as I've noted, this interview was pretty strange. Tucker tried to move things in a way that fit his own views (NATO expansion, the 'who runs the US' question, demonic forces on earth (?)), which was pretty cringe. But he actually did a decent job overall (sorry!). He asked about Gershkovich and pushed fairly hard all things considered, he got steamrolled by VVP but managed to barely hold on given the very meandering discussion (Putin's framing of 2004 and 2013-14 is genuinely difficult to understand if you don't already know the events quite well), he didn't crash the interview so bad that it ended early, he figured out he had a unique opportunity to let Putin talk, and in doing so he provided us a unique window into VVP.

It turns out that Putin says the same thing to Tucker as he does to Ru journos, with even more Putinsplaining. Which is illuminating! The history thing is the real deal, as is his belief that negotiations (in Russia's favor and in accordance with Putin's own sense of what is reasonable) are possible. Both of these things are really important for us to get at analytically.

Putin och Carlson talade alltså förbi varandra. De hade helt olika mål med intervjun. Däremot stämmer det att Putin kan tala engelska - och till och med sjunga:



As Election Looms, Putin Is in a Wartime Trap of His Own Making

Take the battle that unfolded over the scenarios for Putin’s nomination for reelection. The Kremlin’s domestic policy bloc was adamant that the vision for the country’s future should be built upon a civilian agenda, with buzzwords such as “achievements,” “progress,” and “development.” The war, in contrast, is something temporary on the periphery of public life and people’s consciousness. The embodiment of this camp’s idea is the “Russia” exhibition at Moscow’s VDNKh complex showcasing the country’s supposed achievements. Accordingly, the domestic policy bloc curators had primed the president to use it as the setting for his announcement that he would run again.

In the end, however, Putin confirmed that he would run again in a very different setting, and in a mumbled response to a clumsily staged request from a former Donbas military commander. The message—that the country is fighting for its survival, and every Russian must play their part—could not have been more different to that planned. The proponents of this message are betting everything on a long-term political mobilization in which the general public becomes complicit in military decisions.

I denna artikel beskriver Stanovaya hur Putin missförstår sina teknokrater. Vidare har Boris Nadezjdin stoppats från att delta i spektaklet - inte heller enligt plan.

Austria’s dependence on Russian gas rises to 98%, two years after Ukraine war

The 98% figure is a massive increase compared to the 17% achieved in October 2022, when Russia itself restricted gas flows to Europe. But the trend was soon reversed and the share of Russian gas was already back at 43% in August last year.

The high share of Russian gas is partly caused by rapidly falling gas consumption in Austria – from 100 TWh down to 75 TWh in 2023, according to figures from the energy ministry.

Another reason is the contractual ties. Austrian utility OMV committed to a “take-or-pay” arrangement with Gazprom for up to 60 TWh a year, nearly enough to meet the country’s entire gas demand. These supplies, contracted in 2018 until 2040, come at a likely cheaper price than neighbouring Germany, which must rely on global markets to secure liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments.

[...]

“Imports via Germany are subject to a gas storage levy of €1.86/MWh. Italy is also planning to levy a charge of €2.19/MWh for gas exports from 1 April 2024,” said Dolna-Gruber.

Österrike är en kustlös stat - precis som övriga proryska länder i Europa och Afrika. Det är dags för Ukraina och Bulgarien att ta bättre betalt för sina ledningar!

[Enceladus]

Och den lagstiftande makten verkar helt dysfunktionell: How a botched impeachment laid bare a GOP House that cannot function

House GOP eyes a redo on Mayorkas impeachment

The vote to impeach Mayorkas failed in a 214-216 vote last week, after three GOP lawmakers opposed the effort and Scalise did not vote because he was undergoing cancer treatment, buying Mayorkas some more time without having the mark of impeachment on his tenure.

[...]

And all eyes will be on New York’s 3rd Congressional District this week as voters head to the polls to select a successor to former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), who was expelled from Congress last year. Lawmakers are watching the Long Island race closely to see how it will impact the already slim House GOP majority.

[...]

If Pilip wins the seat, holding it over from the Santos era, the breakdown in the House would be 220-212, meaning the GOP conference could lose three GOP lawmakers on any party-line vote with full attendance and still see success.

But if Suozzi wins his seat back, flipping the district from red to blue, the House split would be 219-213, meaning Republicans can only lose two of their own on party-line votes with full attendance and still get their efforts over the finish line.

Republikanernas knappa majoritet i representanthuset kan krympa ytterligare efter dagens fyllnadsval. Demokraten Suozzi är nämligen favorit i mätningarna.

US Senate moves toward passage of Ukraine aid bill

The Senate voted 66-33, exceeding a 60-vote margin, to sweep aside the last procedural hurdle and limit debate on the measure to a final 30 hours before a vote on passage that could come on Wednesday.

But things could move more quickly. Republican opponents of the legislation were due to speak against it on the Senate overnight, aides said. Such a move that could enable Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to move for final passage Tuesday morning.

Passage would only send the legislation on to the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson said his Republican majority wanted the legislation to include conservative provisions to address the flow of migrants across the U.S.-Mexico border.

Då återstår i praktiken bara representanthuset. Frågan är vad Mike Johnson tänker göra med sin (förhoppningsvis) krympande majoritet. Klockan tickar!

Speaker Johnson rebuffs Senate Ukraine package

But a fourth remains viable: Ukraine supporters in both parties could circumvent Johnson and force the foreign aid supplemental to the floor through a discharge petition, an obscure procedural gambit which would require bipartisan buy-in.

If successful, it would deal a devastating blow to Johnson’s leadership. But it would also keep his fingerprints off of the decision to bring the bill to the floor, insulating the Speaker from any blowback from Trump or his conservative House allies, who might otherwise be moved to file a motion to remove Johnson from power.

[...]

How successful that effort would be remains uncertain. Not only is it unclear how many other conservatives would join Greene, but some Democrats are already suggesting that, if Johnson supports bipartisan deals to fund the federal government and prop up Ukraine, they would help him remain in power. Those dynamics present one scenario for Johnson to adopt Ukraine aid and keep his gavel — if enough Democrats are on board.

Talmannen i USA:s representanthus har sannerligen ett damoklessvärd hängande över sig!

GOP rift on full display as Ukraine aid package passes Senate

Zoom in: The package passed 70-29, with 22 Republicans supporting it. Two Democrats — Sens. Peter Welch (Vt.) and Jeff Merkley (Ore.) — opposed the bill over concerns around its aid for Israel, as did Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

The bill succeeded despite strong opposition from the former president, a vocal group of Senate conservatives bucking leadership and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) who has indicated he will not bring the bill to the floor — at least as is.

"This is not helping the people of Ukraine," said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.), one of the detractors who delayed the process. "This war is destroying their country, why add another $60 billion as fuel to the flames?"

Hur står det egentligen till med det republikanska partiet?

[Enceladus]

Republikanernas knappa majoritet i representanthuset kan krympa ytterligare efter dagens fyllnadsval. Demokraten Suozzi är nämligen favorit i mätningarna.

Lawmakers scramble for Plan B on Ukraine

Democrats already have a “ripe” discharge petition in their arsenal, a holdover from last year’s debt limit face-off. It has 213 signatures — all Democrats — and will likely gain one more when Rep.-elect Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) is sworn in following his Tuesday victory in the special election to replace former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.).

A handful of progressives, however, will likely remove their names from the petition to protest military aid to Israel without conditions on how they use it, which is another key provision of the Senate bill. That would mean more Republicans are needed to sign on — a high bar since, on Capitol Hill, endorsing a discharge petition as a member of the majority amounts to something like a violent affront to your own leadership.

[...]

Still, Johnson has said he supports more aid to Ukraine, as well as the other elements of the Senate bill. And a discharge petition would provide him with a form of political cover: The foreign aid would come to the floor without him putting it there, potentially insulating him from any backlash from Trump or those House conservatives who might try to remove his gavel if he stages the vote himself.

[...]

Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) said he is “debating” signing on to a discharge to unleash the Senate aid bill, citing the U.S.’s responsibilities in the conflicts around the world.

Demokraten Tom Suozzi vann ett extrainsatt lokalval på Long Island i New York. Därmed ökar pressen ytterligare på representanthusets talman Mike Johnson.

Stackars Europa? Det är ju bara Frankrike och Italien som använder SAMP/T. I övrigt finns det en Patriot-sammansvärjning i Europa, ledd av Olaf Scholz, kallad European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), som egentligen är klubben för "oss som använder Patriot". Där får inte fransmännen och italienarna vara med.

Germany Says Turkey and Greece to Join Missile-Defense Project

Turkey and Greece will formally join a German-led missile-defense project Thursday, taking the number of members of the so-called European Sky Shield Initiative to 21, according to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

[...]

However, the move has upset France, which has not joined up, because it wants European nations to purchase systems made by the continent’s own contractors rather than rely partly on equipment produced in the US and Israel.

Both Greek Defense Minister Nikolaos Dendias and the Turkish Defense Ministry confirmed a signing ceremony would take place Thursday.

Vad tänker Turkiet göra i denna klubb? Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 14 393 enheter, varav 2 735 stridsvagnar och 21 örlogsfartyg. Vill Putin gå med?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Stackars Europa? Det är ju bara Frankrike och Italien som använder SAMP/T. I övrigt finns det en Patriot-sammansvärjning i Europa, ledd av Olaf Scholz, kallad European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), som egentligen är klubben för "oss som använder Patriot". Där får inte fransmännen och italienarna vara med.

Germany Says Turkey and Greece to Join Missile-Defense Project

Turkey and Greece will formally join a German-led missile-defense project Thursday, taking the number of members of the so-called European Sky Shield Initiative to 21, according to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

[...]

However, the move has upset France, which has not joined up, because it wants European nations to purchase systems made by the continent’s own contractors rather than rely partly on equipment produced in the US and Israel.

Both Greek Defense Minister Nikolaos Dendias and the Turkish Defense Ministry confirmed a signing ceremony would take place Thursday.

Vad tänker Turkiet göra i denna klubb?

Vill Putin gå med?

Erdogan måste ju få förlåtelse för sina S-400-synder. I synnerhet när/om Trump tar över. Men Vladimir Vladimirovitj får inte vara med.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Putin och Carlson talade alltså förbi varandra. De hade helt olika mål med intervjun. Däremot stämmer det att Putin kan tala engelska

Det går inte att analysera detta som en "normal" intervju. Att de inblandade parterna hade olika mål är ju uppenbart. Men de överlappade ju tillräckligt mycket för att intervjun skulle kunna bli av.

[Enceladus]

Det räcker ju med att läsa den här meningen för att inse vad Johnson är ute efter - att komma åt Biden-regeringen.

The Final Countdown: Will Russia and Ukraine Renew Gas Transit Deal?

The main buyers of Russian gas are Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, and Italy, whose current governments are guided by pragmatism in their foreign policy. Russian gas prices are now much more closely linked to European exchange prices than they were in the last decade, but still work out cheaper than liquefied natural gas (LNG), especially during price surges. Accordingly, some countries are reluctant to stop buying Russian gas entirely, though they have all signed up to the REPowerEU program, which envisages that Russian gas will be fully phased out by 2027.

[...]

The issue is that gas extraction and consumption centers are not always located where they need to be, and this is where the virtual transportation comes in. Now, even the process of transporting gas from Ukrainian fields to Ukrainian consumers is effectively a virtual one: it is Russian gas that is sent to some areas (especially in the southern part of the country), while Ukrainian gas goes into the Slovak gas transportation system. Without an external supply of gas from Russia, Ukraine would have to modify its pipeline system and run it differently.

[...]

There are still many unknowns in this equation, however. In Washington, the Biden administration has announced a pause on granting new LNG projects the right to export to countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the United States. While that will not affect the market balance in 2026, it may cause European buyers to doubt the reliability and inexhaustibility of U.S. LNG supplies, and persuade them to maintain alternative options, including Russia.

Carnegie Politikas energiexpert delar Johnsons farhågor. Nu sitter Europa i klistret efter decennier av idiotisk energipolitik. Kan det äntligen bli en förändring?

EU sees no need to extend deal on Russian gas transit via Ukraine

The European Union sees no need to extend an agreement to transport Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine, ahead of the contract's planned expiry at the end of the year, the bloc's energy policy chief said on Thursday.

Energy commissioner Kadri Simson said the EU's analysis indicated that countries served by the gas transit route - which include Austria, Italy and Slovakia - would be able to source alternative supply.

[...]

Europe receives around 12 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year via Ukraine, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Russia supplied Europe with 155 bcm of gas per year before the Ukraine war.

EU är inte längre beroende av rysk gas. Nästa steg är att frigöra sig från all gas, inte bara rysk. Möjligen är Ungern ett undantag. Dit går gasen via Bulgarien.

After scrapping nuclear reactors, Germany to spend billions on new gas power plants

Berlin has agreed to spend €16 billion to build four major natural gas plants to meet electricity demand in a major overhaul of the country's energy grid.

[...]

The government has described the fossil gas power plants as "modern, highly flexible and climate-friendly" because they will be capable of conversion to use clean-burning hydrogen gas produced from renewable sources. The plants are projected to produce up to 10 gigawatts of electricity. Tenders for the projects will begin soon.

German energy firm Uniper, which expects to be involved in the construction, said it was “relieved” that the coalition had reached a political consensus on the new plants, adding that “swift action is urgently needed because the approval process and the actual construction of power plants and storage facilities will take several years."

Fossilgas är inte billig och behöver massiva subventioner. Även gasjätten Uniper behövde räddas av de tyska skattebetalarna. USA satsar på sol och batterier.

[Enceladus]

I denna artikel beskriver Stanovaya hur Putin missförstår sina teknokrater. Vidare har Boris Nadezjdin stoppats från att delta i spektaklet - inte heller enligt plan.

Som bekant har både Jekaterina Duntsova och Boris Nadezjdin stoppats från att ställa upp i det ryska pajasvalet. Nu har Aleksej Navalnyj mördats i fängelse.

Russian rouble slips after Navalny reported dead

The Russian rouble weakened on Friday after the federal prisons service said jailed opposition politician Alexei Navalny was dead. The central bank's decision to hold its key interest rate at 16% also nudged the currency lower.

[...]

The rouble had earlier slipped after the central bank left borrowing costs unchanged following five successive rate hikes as inflation pressure persists. Governor Elvira Nabiullina will shed more light on monetary policy and other issues at a news conference at 1200 GMT.

By 1141 GMT, the rouble was 0.6% weaker against the dollar at 92.81, earlier hitting its lowest level since Jan. 4, bar a momentary drop on Feb. 9 that traders attributed to an algorithmic trading error by a major player.

Putins - och därmed Rysslands - förtroende är kört i botten.

Russian central bank holds interest rate at 16% after months of tightening

Russia's central bank held its key interest rate at 16% on Friday, opting to leave borrowing costs unchanged after five successive rate hikes since last summer, still grappling with stubborn inflation pressure.

[...]

The bank raised its forecast for its average key rate range to 13.5-15.5% from 12.5-14.5%, suggesting that easing borrowing costs would take longer than previously thought.

[...]

"It is very optimistic to raise GDP at the same time as such tight policy," said Yevgeny Kogan, a professor at Russia's Higher School of Economics. "We won't see any more rate hikes, but they plan to keep the rate at 16% for a long time."

Även den ryska ekonomin är ett spektakel.

[Odd]

Jag tror iofs inte att Navalnjy mördats, eller ja, det är klart han har mördats men jag tror inte att det var centralkommitténs avsikt i detta läge. Det är ett för känsligt läge för att röra runt i den interna grytan, tror jag. Risken är ju att folk börjar att demonstrera och att det spårar ur.

[Lennart Petersen]

Jag tror iofs inte att Navalnjy mördats, eller ja, det är klart han har mördats men jag tror inte att det var centralkommitténs avsikt i detta läge. Det är ett för känsligt läge för att röra runt i den interna grytan, tror jag. Risken är ju att folk börjar att demonstrera och att det spårar ur.

Men vi kan väl gissa att bakom det här låg den ofärd han fått utstå , först förgiftningen och sedan fängelsevistelsen under uppnenbart hårda villkor. En 47 års man från början frisk ramlar ju inte ihop sådär efter en promenad.
Ukraina har dock ingen större anledning att sörja. Navalnyj var ärkereaktionär och mer extrem än Putin. Och stödde invasionen av Ukraina fullt ut med kommentaren efter erövringen av Krim: har man tagit en tugga av smörgåsen så äter man upp,den.

[Enceladus]

Däremot - och det har skrivits mycket om det redan - måste Europa ta sitt eget försvar på betydligt större allvar.

Denmark urges Europe not to hide behind production problems in supplying weapons to Ukraine

The prime minister pointed out that European leaders often cite problems with arms production as an obstacle to increasing supplies.

"We, Denmark, have decided to transfer all our artillery to Ukraine. So, excuse me, but the issue is not just about production. Europe still has military equipment. It has to be transferred to Ukraine," she said.

Därtill måste Europa använda sin existerande utrustning bättre. Den behövs i Ukraina, inte i europeiska förråd.

Just nu finns inget riktigt bra tillgängligt alternativ till amerikanska GMLRS/HIMARS, även om utveckling pågår, som Europuls och JFS-M.

Danmark skickade sina Caesar-pjäser till Ukraina och ersätter dessa med israeliska Atmos och Puls. Kan ens Europuls skickas till Ukraina utan Israels veto?

Russian pilot flies his damaged warplane towards village in Luhansk Oblast – video

A Russian pilot has flown his severely damaged aircraft towards villages in Antratsyt hromada (Luhansk Oblast), the Luhansk Oblast Military Administration has reported [a hromada is an administrative unit designating a village, several villages, or a town, and their adjacent territories – ed.].

[...]

The official reported that the warplane had first dropped several guided bomb units on Ukrainian defenders’ positions on 17 February.

Detta är cirka 200 km från fronten. Vad är det som spökar? Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 14 424 enheter, varav 2 742 stridsvagnar och 103 flygplan.

Hungary can soon ratify Sweden's NATO bid, PM Orban says

The Hungarian parliament can ratify Sweden's NATO membership when it convenes for its new spring session later this month, Prime Minister Viktor Orban told his supporters on Saturday.

"It's good news that our dispute with Sweden will soon be settled," Orban said in a key speech. "We are going in the direction that at the start of parliament's spring session we can ratify Sweden's accession to NATO."

[...]

Orban has faced the most challenging period of his 14-year premiership in the past week amid a row over a presidential pardon for a man who helped cover up sexual abuse in a children's home. The scandal led to the resignation of Hungary's president and also the former justice minister - two of Orban's key allies - and late on Friday tens of thousands attended a mass street protest called by popular influencers.

Ukraina behöver det svenska stridsflygplanet Gripen med radarjaktroboten Meteor för att bekämpa de ryska glidbomberna, se t.ex. ISW:s rapport om Avdiivka!

[Enceladus]

På samma sätt som för ATACMS finns det anledning att sätta frågetecken för hur många operationella raketer det kan finnas, med tanke på deras ålder.

Biden administration is leaning toward supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles

After months of requests from Ukrainian officials, the Biden administration is working toward providing Ukraine with powerful new long-range ballistic missiles, according to two U.S. officials.

Late last year, the U.S. began to supply Ukraine with Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, but so far it has provided only the older medium-range ATACMS. Now, the U.S. is leaning toward sending the longer-range version of the missile, the officials said, which would allow Ukraine to strike farther inside the Russian-held Crimean Peninsula.

[...]

The officials did not rule out asking allies to provide the missiles to Ukraine, as well, and replenishing their ATACM stockpiles.

USA har kanske inte många operationella raketer, men väl dess allierade!

How Americans view the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Hamas, and China and Taiwan

Two years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 74% of Americans view the war there as important to U.S. national interests – with 43% describing it as very important.

Similar shares see the war between Israel and Hamas (75%) and tensions between China and Taiwan (75%) as important to U.S. national interests, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Jan. 22-28.

[...]

Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are more likely than Republicans and Republican leaners to see the Russia-Ukraine war as important to U.S. national interests (81% vs. 69%).

Ukraina åtnjuter alltjämt ett brett stöd i USA, även om det finns vissa skillnader mellan olika väljargrupper.

Rysslands glidbomber, utrustade med UMPK-modulen, sägs utgöra ett allt större problem. The Military Watch bekräftar förlusten av en Su-35S. Var det Patriot?

Ukraine's Air Force Commander reveals area where Russian Su-34 was destroyed – video

"Russian emergency rescuers have reported that the pilot of the Su-35 is floating 'face down' in the Sea of Azov. And the Cospas-Sarsat system once again suggests the location of the Su-34 crew.

We keep working!"

[...]

On the morning of 17 February, Ukrainian Air Force units shot down three Russian aircraft on the Eastern front: two Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers and one Su-35 fighter jet.

Samtidigt fortsätter VKS att blöda. Även denna gång har enbart förlusten av en Su-35S bekräftats. Ukraina hävdar emellertid att VKS också förlorade tre Su-34.

Gazprom grapples with collapse in sales to Europe

“Gazprom’s model, which consisted of generating excessive profits in Europe and then distributing them among contractors close to Putin . . . no longer exists,” said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister who was the architect of Gazprom’s reforms in the early 2000s and who later became an associate of opposition figure Alexei Navalny, who died in an Arctic penal colony on Friday according to Russian authorities.

[...]

Even under the most optimistic scenario the PS2 would take years to build and would not make up for lost European sales, independent analysts and state-sponsored researchers agree.

[...]

Gazprom’s oil business, Gazprom Neft, has become the company’s main lifeline, contributing 36 per cent of revenues and 92 per cent of net income in the first half of 2023. The division’s market value even surpassed that of its parent company last year.

[...]

“Gazprom will never again be the huge cash cow for those in power,” said Milov, the former deputy energy minister. “Instead of making excessive profits, there is a risk that the company will become the recipient of state subsidies.”

Vidare har Ryssland förlorat två av sina tre ekonomiska livlinor - gasen och vapenindustrin. Nu återstår bara oljan. Men även den riskerar att snart försvinna:

In unusual move, China offers to back Hungary in security matters

China hopes to deepen law enforcement and security ties with Hungary as the two mark their 75th year of diplomatic relations, Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong told Orban last week, the official Xinhua news agency said.

[...]

Hungary is home to Huawei Technologies' (HWT.UL) largest logistics and manufacturing base outside China, despite European Commission warnings that the telecom giant poses a risk to EU security.

[...]

Hungary will soon host Chinese carmaker BYD's (002594.SZ) first European factory.

Ungern diversifierar från Ryssland till Kina. Tack vare massiva investeringar från kinesiska företag är landet världens största tillverkare av batterier per capita!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Jag tror iofs inte att Navalnjy mördats, eller ja, det är klart han har mördats men jag tror inte att det var centralkommitténs avsikt i detta läge. Det är ett för känsligt läge för att röra runt i den interna grytan, tror jag. Risken är ju att folk börjar att demonstrera och att det spårar ur.

Centralkommittén? Sovjetunionen kollapsade 1991. Under sovjettiden fanns i alla fall - t.om. under Stalin - någon form av kollektivt beslutsfattande i centralkommittén och politbyrån. Nu är ju all makt centraliserad till Putin, de runt omkring honom är bara nickedockor och jasägare.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Jag tror iofs inte att Navalnjy mördats, eller ja, det är klart han har mördats men jag tror inte att det var centralkommitténs avsikt i detta läge. Det är ett för känsligt läge för att röra runt i den interna grytan, tror jag. Risken är ju att folk börjar att demonstrera och att det spårar ur.

Men vi kan väl gissa att bakom det här låg den ofärd han fått utstå , först förgiftningen och sedan fängelsevistelsen under uppnenbart hårda villkor. En 47 års man från början frisk ramlar ju inte ihop sådär efter en promenad.
Ukraina har dock ingen större anledning att sörja. Navalnyj var ärkereaktionär och mer extrem än Putin. Och stödde invasionen av Ukraina fullt ut med kommentaren efter erövringen av Krim: har man tagit en tugga av smörgåsen så äter man upp,den.

Det där var väl en ganska kraftig förenkling. I varje fall finns inget alternativ till Putin, och frågan är hur han har tänkt sig tiden efter honom. Författningsmässigt ska han kunna styra och ställa fram till 2036, men då skulle han vara 84 år. Joe Biden gör ju gällande att han står upp en period till, dvs. fram till 86 års ålder!

Putin fortsätter i alla fall att "efterlysa" sina fiender, även via Interpol får man anta. Risken finns att de grips i något underutvecklat skattesmitarparadis, t.o.m. Spanien grep ju en fiende till banditen Erdogan efter en "efterlysning":
Interpol can't do much more to stop abuse of 'red notices', chief says

PS. Högerextremisten Musk har i alla fall blockerat Navalnyjs änka från "sitt" asociala medium (ni vet vilket). Vi har full yttrandefrihet, bara ni inte använder den för mycket: X spärrade Julia Navalnaja

Sedan var det visst ändå en "teknisk miss" (som det heter): Navalnyjs fru spärrades från X

[Enceladus]

Generellt kan man ju, liksom som Nato, befara att ryssarna tänker försöka spela Kung Vinter igen:

Russian Oil Refining Falls Further in Wake of Drone Attacks

Facilities processed 5.16 million barrels of crude a day in the second week of February, a person with knowledge of industry data said. That’s down 94,000 barrels a day from the previous week, according to Bloomberg calculations based on historic figures.

[...]

The drop in processing rates reached almost 380,000 barrels a day compared with most of December, the last month before Ukraine started hitting Russian refineries. So far in February, Russia’s daily runs have slipped to an average of about 5.21 million barrels, the lowest since early October, Bloomberg calculations show.

Lower runs at Rosneft PJSC’s Ryazan refinery, Lukoil PJSC’s Volgograd facility as well as the independent Ilsky and Afipsky plants — all allegedly attacked by Ukrainian drones in recent weeks — curbed processing rates in the latest week, the person said. Runs also fell at Lukoil’s Perm refinery in the Urals region, located away from the main area of attacks, the person said.

CREA rapporterar att den nedåtgående trenden fortsätter, inte minst tack vare ukrainska drönarattacker mot rysk infrastruktur. Kung Vinter är på Ukrainas sida:

Burst pipes and freezing flats plague Putin’s Russia

The Novosibirsk incident, along with other failures in communal heating leaving thousands of people in freezing flats in the dead of winter have shone a light on the urgent need of investment in the Soviet-era infrastructure as Putin’s war in Ukraine consumes a growing share of the Russian budget.

Russia’s poorly maintained public utilities also contrast with the image the Kremlin seeks to project as an energy superpower that has weaponised oil and gas exports and targeted Ukrainian heating and electricity networks since its full-scale invasion in 2022.

[...]

About two-thirds of communal heating, electricity, gas, water and sewage services are funded by payments from households and businesses, and are administered by Rossiya, a bank controlled by Putin’s close friend Yuri Kovalchuk. The rest is covered by the state, with a higher proportion of the funding coming from regional budgets, often in deficit themselves.

[...]

Heating issues are just the tip of the iceberg. Though Russia is the world’s top gas exporter, only 11 of its 83 administrative regions are fully connected to the gas pipeline network.

Till skillnad från Tyskland har Ryssland inte satsat på gaspannor för uppvärmning av fastigheter och tappvarmvatten. En god idé om det inte vore för korruption.

Putin fortsätter i alla fall att "efterlysa" sina fiender, även via Interpol får man anta.

Jag förmodar att skribenten syftar på efterlysningen av Estlands premiärminister. Scholz verkar däremot sikta på att återställa relationerna med Ryssland:

According to the sources cited in the report, Scholz believed the NATO top job would have been a too powerful position to give to a member of his largest opposition party in Germany, the Christian Democrats (CDU).

In addition, he supposedly feared that von der Leyen’s radical opposition against Russia might be harmful to NATO after a possible end of Moscow’s war on Ukraine, the report stated.

[...]

NATO’s current Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg, is expected to be replaced by autumn, with discussions of a worthy successor ongoing ahead of the Western military alliance’s anniversary summit in July. Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is currently considered a top contender.

I så fall kan Nato tvingas välja Rutte - såvida hans eget land inte behöver honom mer.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Putin fortsätter i alla fall att "efterlysa" sina fiender, även via Interpol får man anta.

Jag förmodar att skribenten syftar på efterlysningen av Estlands premiärminister.

Enceladus-kollektivet behöver inte "förmoda". Det räcker med att följa länkarna jag angivit. Om det känns för svårt kan jag återge ett litet citat:

Under tisdagen stod det också klart att Ryssland efterlyser Aleksej Navalnyjs bror Oleg Navalnyj. Detta då en utredning inletts mot honom.

Det rapporterar den ryska nyhetsbyrån Tass, enligt Reuters

Helikopterpiloten Maksim Kuzminov behövde man dock inte "efterlysa". Honom tog GRU hand om på annat sätt, som bekant:
viewtopic.php?p=418307#p418307

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Scholz verkar däremot sikta på att återställa relationerna med Ryssland:

According to the sources cited in the report, Scholz believed the NATO top job would have been a too powerful position to give to a member of his largest opposition party in Germany, the Christian Democrats (CDU).

In addition, he supposedly feared that von der Leyen’s radical opposition against Russia might be harmful to NATO after a possible end of Moscow’s war on Ukraine, the report stated.

[...]

NATO’s current Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg, is expected to be replaced by autumn, with discussions of a worthy successor ongoing ahead of the Western military alliance’s anniversary summit in July. Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is currently considered a top contender.

I så fall kan Nato tvingas välja Rutte - såvida hans eget land inte behöver honom mer.

"Återställa relationerna med Ryssland"? Ja, det är lätt att dra förhastade slutsatser!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Är detta ett exempel på Oleksandr Syrskyis ledarskap: Russia takes Avdiivka at steep price, as Ukraine forced to face shortcomings (The Kyiv Independent)

För dem som har svårt att läsa innantill vill jag påpeka att jag ställer en fråga, inte gör ett påstående. Observera också att artikeln kommer från ett ukrainskt medium. I en demokrati kan nämligen media kritisera stats- och militärledningen.

En sak är i alla fall säker. Ukrainas försvarsmakt kan inte slösa med sin personal på det sätt ryssarna gör.

[Enceladus]

Alexander Smirnov: FBI source accused of Biden lies 'linked to Russian intelligence'

An ex-FBI informant accused of lying about President Joe Biden and his son Hunter has high-level ties with Russian intelligence, US prosecutors say.

[...]

Mr Smirnov is accused of lying when he claimed bribes were paid to the Bidens via a Ukrainian energy firm, Burisma.

He was charged last week with giving false statements to the FBI.

Mr Smirnov's claims were part of an ongoing effort by Republicans to impeach President Biden.

Ryssland behöver verkligen nyttiga idioter i USA. Antalet bekräftade ryska förluster utgör 14 483 enheter, varav 2 754 stridsvagnar (inkl. T-54) och 104 flygplan:

Russian T-54-3M (modernised Model 1951) taken out by an FPV drone that was used in direct assault near Robotyne, February 2024.

Previously T-54/55s were used only in artillery role but recently Russians started using them in direct assaults as well.

Tydligen är det möjligt att resa bakåt i tiden!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Jag tror iofs inte att Navalnjy mördats, eller ja, det är klart han har mördats men jag tror inte att det var centralkommitténs avsikt i detta läge. Det är ett för känsligt läge för att röra runt i den interna grytan, tror jag. Risken är ju att folk börjar att demonstrera och att det spårar ur.

Men vi kan väl gissa att bakom det här låg den ofärd han fått utstå , först förgiftningen och sedan fängelsevistelsen under uppnenbart hårda villkor. En 47 års man från början frisk ramlar ju inte ihop sådär efter en promenad.
Ukraina har dock ingen större anledning att sörja. Navalnyj var ärkereaktionär och mer extrem än Putin. Och stödde invasionen av Ukraina fullt ut med kommentaren efter erövringen av Krim: har man tagit en tugga av smörgåsen så äter man upp,den.

Och stackars Donald, han är lika förföljd, han också: Trump compares his legal troubles to the persecution of Alexei Navalny

[Enceladus]

Och stackars Donald, han är lika förföljd, han också: Trump compares his legal troubles to the persecution of Alexei Navalny

New York threatens to seize Donald Trump’s property if he can’t come up with nearly half a billion dollars in cash

Donald Trump could be at risk of losing some of his prized properties if he can’t pay his staggering New York civil fraud penalty. With interest, he owes the state nearly $454 million — and the amount is going up $87,502 each day until he pays.

[...]

Trump’s ability to pay his mounting legal debts is increasingly murky after back-to-back courtroom losses. In January, a jury ordered him to pay $83.3 million for defaming writer E. Jean Carroll.

Trump claimed last year that he has about $400 million in cash — reserves that would get eaten up by his court penalties. The rest of his net worth, which he says is several billion dollars, is tied up in golf courses, skyscrapers and other properties, along with investments and other holdings.

Trots sin omfattande verksamhet kunde Al Capone aldrig dömas för annat än skattebrott. Det verkar som om Donald Trump går i hans fotspår. Kongressen då?

House is heading toward "nuclear" war over Ukraine funding, one top House GOP leader says

Absent Johnson relenting and allowing a vote on the Senate bill, McHenry said two obscure parliamentary maneuvers could circumvent Johnson: a discharge petition or defeating the previous question. Both would require Democrats and enough Republicans to unite and force consideration of the bill. McHenry said the discharge petition — where a majority of House members publicly sign a petition to bring a bill to the floor — did not have better than a 30% chance of working. Slightly more likely, he said, was defeating the previous question, whereby a majority forces an immediate vote on a bill that is not on the floor. Defeating the previous question is almost never successful.

"We've not done this in generations in the U. S. House of Representatives," McHenry said. "Defeating the previous question is something like a nuclear device. It is a vast act of war. That is the other mechanism to bring this bill to the floor."

McHenry said the death of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny should motivate Republicans to support billions more in military and economic aid for Ukraine.

Putins mord på Aleksej Navalnyj ökar sannolikheten för ett "kärnvapenkrig" i USA:s representanthus: "discharge petition" eller "defeating the previous question".

Ja, procedurreglerna i USA:s Kongress kan göra vem som helst vimmelkantig. Amerikanska källor som rapporterar från intrigspelet i The Swamp, The Hill eller vad man nu vill kalla huvudstadens politiska centra, finns det gott om. Det är bara att välja, beroende på vilka ideologiska skygglappar man har.

With Ukraine Aid Stuck in Congress, Supporters Push Fallback Plans

If newly elected New York Rep. Tom Suozzi, a Democrat, signs the petition once he is sworn in on Feb. 28, the number of signatures will increase to 214. Under House rules, death or resignation doesn’t invalidate a signature, although members can withdraw their signatures any time before the petition hits 218. That is why the signature of Rep. Brian Higgins (D., N.Y.), who resigned in February, remains valid.

[...]

Once a petition reaches the 218 threshold, it must wait seven legislative days before a member can announce to the House that he or she wants to bring it up. Then the speaker must schedule the motion for a vote within two legislative days. During that time, public pressure would be immense on the Republican signatories to change their minds, and on the speaker to punish them or persuade them to abandon the petition.

[...]

Defeating the previous question, which hasn’t happened in decades, could be faster than a petition—a matter of hours rather than days—and could require fewer votes, since it needs a simple majority of those present and voting, rather than the petition’s hard 218. But it would be politically challenging for Republicans, since they likely would have to stick with Democrats for multiple procedural votes before final passage, subjecting them to real-time pressure from their GOP peers on the floor—and backlash from their constituents back home.

Ovanstående artikel beskriver de två aktuella procedurreglerna i större detalj. Det är svårt att kunna veta vad Mike Johnson tänker göra. Han vet nog inte själv.

En europeisk kärnvapenmakt post Nato?! Hur skulle det överhuvud taget gå till? Det finns bara en självständig kärnvapenmakt i Europa - Frankrike. Den brittiska militärpropagandan hävdar givetvis att de är absolut självständiga med sina Trident-beväpnade ubåtar:

Trump triggers Germany’s nuclear nightmare

Though the menace of Russia can be difficult to gauge in a country that has lived securely under American protection for 75 years, it would be reckless to ignore it, as neither a Russian victory over Ukraine nor a Trump victory in November U.S. elections can be ruled out. If Russia succeeded in Ukraine, moreover, it would have a clear path toward the rest of Europe.

[...]

Some German politicians have clung to the default position of recent decades: Find someone else to protect us.

Both Katharina Barley, the lead candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) for the upcoming EU election, and Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the fiscally conservative Free Democrats (FDP) have suggested trying to Europeanize the French nuclear force in some way. Lindner, for example, proposed a strategic dialogue with both France and the U.K. to explore “collective security.”

Samtidigt kan Trumps retorik - och förhoppningsvis inte hans handlingar - påbörja en ny kärnvapenkapprustning i Europa. Det handlar inte bara om Polen!

Bundestag approves proposal on long-range weapons for Ukraine, Taurus missiles not mentioned

The adopted document states that parliamentary factions of the coalition support providing Ukraine with "additional necessary long-range weaponry and ammunition". The proposal does not explicitly mention the Taurus cruise missiles.

[...]

Some MPs from the Greens and Free Democratic Party suggest that Taurus was specifically implied.

At the same time, the deputy leader of the Social Democratic Party of Germany parliamentary faction, Gabriela Heinrich, stated that the wording "does not necessarily" imply Taurus.

Vidare fortsätter den brokiga tyska regeringskoalitionen att bråka om Taurus-missilerna som sägs bränna alla broar. Vem behöver fiender med sådana vänner?