Ukrainian Neptune Cruise Missile Lands In Russia Largely Intact
The War Zone skrev:The remains of a Ukrainian-developed R-360 Neptune ground-launched cruise missile have reportedly washed ashore on Russia's Sea of Azov coastline. This looks to be the first look at any part of one these missiles actually fired in anger. Ukraine's forces famously used Neptunes to sink the Russian Navy's Project 1164 Slava class cruiser Moskva in 2022 and reportedly began employing a new land-attack version last year.
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The Ukrainian R-360 is derived from the Soviet-era Kh-35 and is very similar externally to that missile, which remains in service in Russia and elsewhere today. However, the remains of the missile in the video that emerged today clearly show that its main fins have a stepped or 'cranked' sweep to them, which is a distinctive feature on Neptune. The four main fins on Kh-35s have a straight sweep to them. Early Neptune prototypes were seen with a fin configuration more akin to that o the Kh-35.
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The baseline anti-ship version of Neptune uses inertial navigation system (INS) guidance to get to a designated target area before switching over to an active radar seeker to detect and zero on its target in the terminal stage of flight, just like the Kh-35. The land-attack version reportedly uses a combination of GPS-assisted INS and an imaging infrared sensor to hit its mark. You can read more about what is known about this new variant here.
Ryska militärbloggare påstår sig ha hittat ett exemplar av den ukrainska kryssningsmissilen Neptune, vilken hjälpte Ukraina att
vinna slaget om Svarta havet:
The Economist skrev:With 6.3m tonnes of goods exported in December, the Odessa region’s three ports—Odessa itself, Chornomorsk and Pivdenny—are now almost back to pre-war volumes. On an unusually sunny day in late January, the port of Odessa clinked to the rhythm of metal on metal. Fourteen ships stood loading in dock. Another 11 hung on the horizon, waiting their turn to be inspected by border officials, who shuttled in and out on speedboats. The border service is not only inspecting goods on board these days, but also checking for Russian saboteur groups, which remain a threat. Another wartime change has seen all traffic in the region subordinated to a single maritime command. “We connect traders with the emergency services, ecological services, weather reports, missile attacks, and air raid alerts,” says Yuriy Lytvyn, head of Ukraine’s Sea Port Authority. “It’s a unique lego puzzle, a crazy amount of work.”
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Ukraine had to work hard to establish its own corridor, overturning Russia’s dominance of the Black Sea without a single working warship. According to Dmytro Pletenchuk, a navy spokesman, unlikely success came in three phases. The first breakthrough came in the early weeks of the full-scale war, when Ukraine prevented an amphibious landing. It was a close run thing, but the key moment was halting the Russian westward encirclement of Odessa 100km away at Voznesensk in March 2022. Two months later, Ukraine was able to impose a 100-nautical-mile buffer in the north-western part of the Black Sea after destroying Russia’s Moskva flagship and regaining control of the strategic Snake Island. The third phase, completed over 2023, saw Ukraine push Russian warships entirely from the north-western, central and even south-western parts of the Black Sea.
This final part of the jigsaw was predicated on Ukraine’s maritime forces—the navy, domestic intelligence (SBU), military intelligence (HUR), border guards and army—developing a new arsenal of cruise missiles and naval drones to hunt and sink Russian warships. In total, Ukraine has destroyed at least 22 of the 80 working combat vessels of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, and damaged another 13. These figures would be even greater had Russia had not salvaged a few sunken ships. Now, not even the eastern coast of Crimea is considered safe, and Russia’s most capable ships are sheltering in Novorossiysk, 600km away. “It’s a matter of time before we destroy the Black Sea Fleet in its entirety,” says Mr Pletenchuk.
Rysslands Patriot-konkurrent S-400 kan tydligen inte garantera säkerheten!
US weapons exports up 50 percent in 2023 as Washington challenges Russia, China
POLITICO skrev:“We are seeing in the ‘Global South’ real tough decisions by partners to move away from Russian equipment,” Resnick said. “We would love to see more from India on this and we continue to work and explore different defensive trade opportunities with India.”
The $81 billion in sales brokered by the U.S. government represents a 56 percent increase, up from $52 billion in fiscal 2022. The fiscal 2023 total is the highest since 2020 when former President Donald Trump very publicly played the role of lead salesperson for U.S. military hardware — and when the U.S. initially struck a $14 billion megadeal for Indonesia to buy Boeing-made F-15s.
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Warsaw struck a $12 billion deal for AH-64E Apache helicopters, a $10 billion deal for the long-range High Mobility Artillery Rocket System that Kyiv is using to fire deep behind Russian lines; a $4 billion deal for Integrated Air And Missile Defense Battle Command Systems; and a $3.75 billion deal for M1A1 Abrams Main Battle Tanks.
Other European allies wary of Russia put in big orders. Germany agreed to a $8.5 billion order for CH-47F Chinook helicopters and a $3 billion order for AIM-120C-8 Advanced Medium-Range Air-To-Air Missiles. The Czech Republic struck a deal for F-35 aircraft and munitions worth $5.6 billion, Bulgaria is ordering $1.5 billion worth of Stryker vehicles, and Norway is buying a $1 billion MH-60R Multi-Mission helicopter package.
Europeiska länder som Polen och Tyskland lyfter USA:s vapenexport. Borde inte Europa prioritera sin egen industri när det inte längre går att lita på USA?
Opinion: How many tanks does Russia have left?
The Kyiv Independent skrev:This number reportedly included 200 T-90s, 3,000 T-80s, 7,000 T-72s, 2,000 T-64s, 2,500 T-62s, and 2,800 T-55s, the numbers of which roughly correspond to the years that they came out. IISS’ calculations are very inaccurate, however, as they’re based on estimates of the number of tanks produced during the Soviet Union.
Estimates from IISS’ 2023 “The Military Balance” yearbook are much more modest: approximately 2,000 tanks in service and up to 5,000 in storage.
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Institut Action Résilience identified 750 T-80s, 1,945 T-72s, 1,239 T-62s, and 413 T-54 and -55s. Three-quarters of the tanks identified were produced before 1980.
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Meanwhile, Institut Action Résilience estimates that Russia can produce around 390 tanks per year – a number that includes those modernized or restored at tank depots. This contradicts Russian sources that claim the country produced 700-800 tanks in 2022 and 1,500 in 2023. The quality of production is also falling due to sanctions.
Data from the Dutch OSINT defense website Oryx indicates that Russia has lost 2,619 tanks since the start of the full-scale invasion – 1,725 destroyed, 145 damaged, 205 abandoned, and 544 lost.
Ryssland har förstås fullt upp och kan därför inte exportera sin begränsade produktion. Enligt Oryx har Ryssland förlorat 2 678 stridsvagnar i skrivande stund.
How a skills shortage could hit Ukraine’s battlefield
Financial Times skrev:When Stefan Löfven was elected to Sweden’s top political post in October 2014, some observers found it amusing that the Social Democrat leader had begun his career as a welder. Those patronising Löfven’s manufacturing background seemed unaware that welding involves advanced skills. Indeed, good welders are indispensable in the manufacturing of defence equipment, and that’s where Löfven had earned his keep, as an employee of the Swedish company Hägglund & Söner (which is now part of BAE Systems). Then again, arms-making expertise was not at a premium in 2014.
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But defence manufacturers are struggling to find the necessary welders, electricians and other skilled workers. “The biggest risk facing the nuclear-powered Aukus submarine build is whether enough skilled welders can be recruited and trained,” the Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter warned in March 2023, one and a half years after the pact was announced. The same problems are being felt in European defence firms. “Older workers are constantly retiring,” a top executive with a major European defence manufacturer told me. “But millennials are difficult to recruit. We’re experiencing a generational gap at the very time we’re expanding.”
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Arms-making also involves an extraordinary degree of craftsmanship. “At the end of the process of making artillery shells, when you have to feel the explosive inside the shell, there’s nothing automatic about that,” the European executive told me. “There are parts of planes that are still handcrafted. There are many automated processes, but defence manufacturing relies on expert workers.”
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These delays are particularly painful for those on the frontline. One senior executive told me it will take two years for western defence manufacturers to make enough ammunition so Ukrainian soldiers are as well-supplied as the Russians. Taiwan is still waiting for much of the $19bn of weaponry it has ordered from US manufacturers. Wars could erupt, unfold and be lost because we lack skilled factory workers.
Det är inte lätt att locka nästa generations arbetskraft till försvarsindustrin. Icke desto mindre väntas Ukraina komma ifatt om två år. Tiden är inte Putins vän!
