Militär teknik och Ukrainakriget

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

U.S. not planning to announce long-range missiles decision during Zelensky visit: source

The Biden administration at the moment does not plan to announce its decision on whether to ship longer-range missiles that Kyiv is seeking during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Washington next week, according to a source familiar with the issue.

[...]

Sullivan admitted that views on this issue in the current Congress are different than the previous one, but stressed that the discussion of providing additional assistance will continue. President Biden has requested Congress approve $20 billion in additional aid for Ukraine.

[...]

The Biden administration will likely announce next week a new package of military assistance for Ukraine, Sullivan also told reporters.

Beslutet om att skicka ATACMS till Ukraina dröjer ett tag till, trots att USA verkar ha insett fördelen med markbaserade artillerisystem (se ovan).

Ja, behovet av raketartilleri skrev jag om redan förra året:

Dessutom skulle Ukraina behöva amerikanskt raketartilleri, som har bättre räckvidd, för att bekämpa ryssarnas ursinniga och urskillningslösa artillerield mot civila mål. Även Tomahawk kryssningsmissiler skulle vara välkomna, men det vapensystemet kommer Ukraina aldrig att få tillgång till. Troligtvis bedömer USA att risken är för stor att missilvapen kommer att träffa mål inne i Ryssland, och eskalera kriget okontrollerat.

Jag tror inte att jag var ensam om den bedömningen, både den militära och politiska ledningen i USA insåg nog fördelarna redan då. Dessutom förutsåg jag behovet av kryssningsmissiler, även om det inte blev Tomahawk utan Storm Shadow/SCALP EG - ett år senare.

ATACMS nämnde jag första gången några dagar senare:

Behovet av raketartilleri för Ukrainas del framhöll jag redan här: viewtopic.php?p=406117#p406117
USA har flera typer av raketartilleri. Ukrainas försvarsmakt har naturligtvis tillgång till vissa sovjetiska raketpjäser, men ammunitionen börjar ta slut.

Det florerar olika uppgifter om USA verkligen är villiga att tillhandahålla sådana vapensystem.
US preparing to approve advanced long-range rocket system for Ukraine as Russian TV host warns of crossing a 'red line'
Dessa vapensystem kan avlossa olika typer av missiler, bl.a. den taktiska ballistiska missilen MGM-140 ATACMS, som är ett ganska kraftfullt precisionsvapen. Frågan är om Ukraina i förekommande fall får tillgång till sådana, USA överväger hela tiden risken att vapendelar ska falla i ryssarnas händer.

Givetvis säger ryssarna att detta är en röd linje: Russia TV Says U.S. 'Crossing a Red Line' by Supplying Ukraine With MLRS

Å andra sidan är det inte första gången, sådana hot har förekommit åtskilliga gånger det senaste halvåret: NATO Has Already Crossed Vladimir Putin's 'Red Line'

USA har sedan dess föreburit alla möjliga olika åsikter om varför Ukraina inte kan tilldelas denna missiltyp.

[Enceladus]

Den ryska korvetten Samum bogseras tillbaka till hamn efter att ha skadats av USV-en Sea Baby. Ryssland förnekar emellertid händelsen.

Sjökrigsexperten Sutton intygar att Samum förmodligen skadades i attacken. Dessutom lovar Ukraina att trappa upp drönarattackerna mot ryska fartyg:

Ukraine will be able to conduct more drone attacks on Russian warships, a Ukrainian minister who has played a key role in building the country's drone industry told Reuters after a recent series of sea raids.

“There will be more drones, more attacks, and fewer Russian ships. That’s for sure,” Digital Transformation minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in an interview on Friday, answering a question about recent attacks near Crimea.

[...]

“I think it’ll be an increase of around 120 to 140 times by the end of this year, if you compare it to the previous one.”

Vilken drastisk ökning!

USA har sedan dess föreburit alla möjliga olika åsikter om varför Ukraina inte kan tilldelas denna missiltyp.

Blinken says it's up to Ukraine how to use US-provided weapons

While Washington "does not encourage nor enable" Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapon systems outside of the country, it is "fundamentally" Kyiv's decision how to use those weapons, U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken said at a press conference.

A journalist asked Blinken about the U.S.'s hesitation to provide Ukraine with long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) allegedly caused by fears Kyiv would use them to strike Russian soil.

"When it comes to how Ukrainians use these systems, the targeting decisions are theirs. They're not ours," the official replied.

USA:s utrikesminister avråder Ukraina från att använda amerikanska vapen på ryskt territorium. Betyder detta att Ukraina får göra det, speciellt ATACMS?

Ja, de flesta länder donerar sitt gamla sovjetiska skräp för att förbrukas i Ukraina, det ena typen fulare än den andra.

Ofrivilliga donationer förekommer: Georigens BMP-1U "Shkval" har hamnat i Ukraina. Men allt sovjetiskt är inte skräp: Ryssland har förlorat vassa S-300V4!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ja, de flesta länder donerar sitt gamla sovjetiska skräp för att förbrukas i Ukraina, det ena typen fulare än den andra.

Men allt sovjetiskt är inte skräp: Ryssland har förlorat vassa S-300V4!

Det har jag inte påstått heller! Kommentaren rörde dessutom gamla sovjetiska helikoptertyper, som i huvudsak är skräp.
viewtopic.php?p=415276#p415276

Annorlunda är det med luftförsvarssystemen. Dess utveckling har följt en vindlande bana

[/url]

Här är en kort översikt över S-300-systemet, från CSIS: https://missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/s-300/

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

USA har sedan dess föreburit alla möjliga olika åsikter om varför Ukraina inte kan tilldelas denna missiltyp.

Blinken says it's up to Ukraine how to use US-provided weapons

While Washington "does not encourage nor enable" Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapon systems outside of the country, it is "fundamentally" Kyiv's decision how to use those weapons, U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken said at a press conference.

A journalist asked Blinken about the U.S.'s hesitation to provide Ukraine with long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) allegedly caused by fears Kyiv would use them to strike Russian soil.

"When it comes to how Ukrainians use these systems, the targeting decisions are theirs. They're not ours," the official replied.

USA:s utrikesminister avråder Ukraina från att använda amerikanska vapen på ryskt territorium. Betyder detta att Ukraina får göra det, speciellt ATACMS?

Se där, ja. Ytterligare en åsikt. Those are my principles - if you don't like them, I have others.

Man kan ju återge källan istället: Secretary Antony J. Blinken and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at a Joint Press Availability

Blinken uttrycker sig lite kryptiskt där, enligt den fullständiga utskriften:

When it comes to how Ukrainians use these systems, the targeting decisions are theirs. They’re not ours. And they have to make judgments about what can be most effective in working to regain their full sovereignty, their territorial integrity. As a matter of our own policy, we do not encourage, nor do we enable, the use of our weapon systems outside of Ukraine. But again, fundamentally these are Ukrainian decisions.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

UAE Reportedly Seeking Role In South Korea’s KF-21 Fighter Jet Program

In 2017, Abu Dhabi signed a preliminary deal to work with Russia on developing an unspecified next-generation fighter. In 2021, Russia displayed a mockup of its planned fifth-generation Su-75 Checkmate at the Dubai Airshow.

However, analysts have repeatedly noted the UAE’s involvement in such programs was more to demonstrate to the U.S. that it had other options for armaments rather than a genuine effort to acquire Russian fighters for its air force, which consists of American and French jets. And, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, cooperating with Moscow on such projects is more untenable than ever.

[...]

The only problem is the first variant of the KF-21, while stealthier than the 4.5-generation aircraft currently on the market, will feature external hardpoints rather than internal weapons bays. So, while close to a fifth-generation fighter, it will still fall short of that technical classification, leading some to unofficially dub it a “4.75-generation” aircraft. Nevertheless, future variants may improve upon this shortcoming.

The timing of this purported Emirati interest in the Boramae is also noteworthy. After all, the UAE’s neighbor, Saudi Arabia, eagerly wants to join the United Kingdom-Italy-Japan Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) developing the sixth-generation Tempest fighter. Riyadh reportedly requested to join in August, mere weeks before the UAE’s reported KF-21 interest.

Gulfstaterna nöjer sig inte längre med att köpa de senaste leksakerna. Nu vill de vara med och utforma nästa generations stridsflygplan. Var är Sverige?

Äh, det där Global Combat Air Programme (observera den brittiska stavningemn) är mest varmluft än så länge, och det kommer att dröja länge innan det ev. blir någonting annat. Dessutom vill japanerna, fullt förståeligt, inte ha med Saudiarabien.

Sydkoreanska KF-21 är inte på något sätt märkvärdigare än F-35, men USA betraktar inte UAE som fullt pålitliga - ungefär som Turkiet. Då får man leta efter något annat. KF-21 har ju kommit lite längre än turkskurkarnas TF-KAAN (fd. TF-X). Som jag skrev tidigare så var Turkiet intresserat av att delta i KF-21-projektet, men krävde större inflytande (typiskt Erdogan) än vad sydkoreanerna var beredda att gå med på. KF-21 liknar mer F-22 än F-35. Jag skrev om detta tidigare: viewtopic.php?p=414009#p414009

Och Sverige? Sverige kommer inte att tillverka någon mer egen flygplanstyp efter JAS39-E/F: viewtopic.php?p=411065#p411065
även om det tjafsas om det i Riksdagen: https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/dokument-oc ... g_ha10215/

SAAB kan få vara med på ett hörn i ett internationellt samarbete, kanske.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Su-75 "Checkmate"? Det är ju bara balsaträ och plastic padding. Ryssarna kan ju inte en serietillverka Su-57 för eget behov.


Balsaträ och plastic padding

“The new multipurpose light single-engine fighter is, first of all, an export vehicle. But according to the tests, it is possible that the (Russian) Ministry of Defense will also be interested, ”said Dmitry Shugaev, head of Russia’s arms export coordinator, FSMTC told the official Zvezda TV.

He said that the aircraft has wide strike and reconnaissance capabilities, low radar signature, and much more.

Shugaev stressed that competitors will be unpleasantly surprised by the price of the new aircraft. The FSMTC hopes that with this new proposal, Russia will occupy an important niche in the market for light single-engine fifth-generation multipurpose aircraft.

Det var då, det.

[Enceladus]

Ukrainian Forces Destroy two Russian Buk-M3 Most Modern Air Defense Systems

On September 17, 2023, a video released on Telegram unveiled a groundbreaking event in the ongoing conflict near Svitlodarsk, Donetsk. The Ukrainian armed forces have reportedly destroyed two of the latest generation Buk-M3 air defense missile systems using artillery rocket launcher systems.

The Buk-M3 is the most advanced variant of the Buk missile system lineage, which was developed by the Soviet Union and later by the Russian Federation. This system is designed to counter a myriad of aerial threats, including cruise missiles, smart bombs, fixed and rotary-wing aircraft, and unmanned aerial vehicles.

The Buk-M3 system has undergone significant enhancements over its predecessors. One of the primary features of the Buk-M3 is its advanced electronic components. The system's TELAR (Transporter Erector Launcher and Radar) has been upgraded to feature a tracked chassis with seven rollers, and it can accommodate six missiles in launch tubes. This design allows the Buk-M3 to simultaneously track and engage multiple targets, providing a robust defense against coordinated aerial attacks.

Ukraina har eliminerat två exemplar av den senaste versionen av luftvärnssystemet Buk. Samtidigt är Ukrainas västerländska luftvärnssystem intakta.

Two ships arrive in Ukraine port to load grain

Two cargo vessels arrived in Ukraine on Saturday, Ukrainian port authorities said, the first ships to use a temporary corridor to sail into Black Sea ports and load grain for African and Asian markets.

[...]

Five vessels have so far left the port of Odesa, using the corridor which hugs the western Black Sea coast near Romania and Bulgaria.

[...]

The loadings are a test of Ukraine's ability to reopen shipping lanes at a time when Russia is trying to re-impose its de facto blockade, having abandoned the grain deal in July. Moscow has launched frequent drone and missile attacks on the Ukrainian grain export infrastructure.

Två fraktfartyg åker mot Odesa – de första sedan spannmålsavtalet upphörde. Västerländska luftvärnssystem garanterar säkerheten - till skillnad från ryska!

Ka-52 och Ka-50 är mycket kompetenta attackhelikoptrar, fullt i klass med de amerikanska AH-64 Apache och Bell AH-1Z Viper. Däremot är de förstås fullt möjliga att bekämpa, om man har tillgång till tillräckligt kompetent luftvärn. I kuperad och skogklädd terräng, där helikopterpiloterna inte kan avgöra exakt hur fienden grupperat sig går det att använda korträckviddiga, värmemålsökande system som ex.vis Stinger. I öppen terräng, som på den ukrainska sydfronten räcker inte det.

Ryska attackhelikoptrar är dock knappast immuna mot tekniska fel. Snarare tvärtom.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ka-52 och Ka-50 är mycket kompetenta attackhelikoptrar, fullt i klass med de amerikanska AH-64 Apache och Bell AH-1Z Viper. Däremot är de förstås fullt möjliga att bekämpa, om man har tillgång till tillräckligt kompetent luftvärn. I kuperad och skogklädd terräng, där helikopterpiloterna inte kan avgöra exakt hur fienden grupperat sig går det att använda korträckviddiga, värmemålsökande system som ex.vis Stinger. I öppen terräng, som på den ukrainska sydfronten räcker inte det.

Ryska attackhelikoptrar är dock knappast immuna mot tekniska fel. Snarare tvärtom.

Ett av Enceladus-kollektivets mer obegåvade inlägg. Självklart är det så, det gäller alla tekniska anordningar. Dessutom säger twitter/X-ryktet såhär: "There was probably an emergency landing due to combat damage or a technical failure." Mer "vet" vi inte.

Det märks att det är olika personer som döljer sig bakom "Enceladus". Ibland är kommentarerna vettiga, ibland rent av resonabla. Och ibland är det som om ifrågavarande skribent knappt har gått ut grundskolan.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Two ships arrive in Ukraine port to load grain

Two cargo vessels arrived in Ukraine on Saturday, Ukrainian port authorities said, the first ships to use a temporary corridor to sail into Black Sea ports and load grain for African and Asian markets.

[...]

Five vessels have so far left the port of Odesa, using the corridor which hugs the western Black Sea coast near Romania and Bulgaria.

[...]

The loadings are a test of Ukraine's ability to reopen shipping lanes at a time when Russia is trying to re-impose its de facto blockade, having abandoned the grain deal in July. Moscow has launched frequent drone and missile attacks on the Ukrainian grain export infrastructure.

Två fraktfartyg åker mot Odesa – de första sedan spannmålsavtalet upphörde. Västerländska luftvärnssystem garanterar säkerheten - till skillnad från ryska!

Odessas luftförsvar är otillräckligt och kan inte garantera någonting, speciellt inte om ryssarna får för sig att sätta in Raduga Kh-22 eller P-800 Oniks. Risken för vapeninsatser är förstås störst i hamnarna. Nedanstående kartbild ger en ungefärlig uppfattning om den rutt som används, inkl. territorialvattengränserna. Till sjöss är det i första hand det ukrainska kustartilleriet, beväpnat med RGM-84 Harpoon och R-360 Neptune som håller ryssarna borta. Närmare kusten är 200 km kan deras marina enheter knappast komma utan att dra på sig ukrainsk eldgivning. Rutten går som synes i huvudsak genom ukrainskt territorialvatten fram till Rumäniens gräns. Den cirkulära utbuktningen norr om Rumäniens territorialvatten är förstås Ormön, som 2009 tillerkändes Ukraina genom skiljedom i Internationella domstolen i Haag. Möjligen har Ukraina LV-/ kustartilleri missilbatterier på ön.



Därefter via Rumänien, Bulgarien och Turkiet.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ett SvT-reportage visar hur ryssarna attackerar stillastående lastbilstransporter med Shahed-UAV-er: Långtradare blir måltavlor för ryska drönare
Transporterna av spannmål till Donauhamnarna verkar till stor del ske med lastbil.

Shahed kan i dagens utförande knappast attackera rörliga mål. Attackerna sker vanligtvis nattetid, som framgår av videoklippet i reportaget och det är nästan omöjligt att bekämpa UAV-erna med finkalibrig automateld från handeldvapen då. Radarledda automatkanonsystem är det enda som fungerar.

[Enceladus]

Beträffande Vulcano-granaten är det nästan motbjudande att läsa Oleg Danylovs hyllningsskrift. Varje nytt vapensystem som tillförs Ukraina beskrivs mer eller mindre som the silver bullet, trots att det inte finns några undervapen.

Nu har Vulcano-granaten hittat till Ukraina. Den avfyras av Tysklands oförstörbara pjäs PzH 2000. Men det finns tydligen inga undervapen...

Ett SvT-reportage visar hur ryssarna attackerar stillastående lastbilstransporter med Shahed-UAV-er: Långtradare blir måltavlor för ryska drönare
Transporterna av spannmål till Donauhamnarna verkar till stor del ske med lastbil.

Till ingens förvåning fortsätter skribentens ensidiga rapportering. Verkligheten ser dock helt annorlunda ut:

Deal or No Deal, the Calm on the Grain Exports Market Is Deceptive

Neither Moscow nor Kyiv, then, is in any hurry to adjust its position, because there is no real reason for them to do so. Since the collapse of the gain deal, Ukraine has continued to export grain through ports on the Danube River and overland to European consumers, or to EU ports for onward transport. In July and August, Ukraine exported about 5 million tons of grain, comparable to last year’s levels when the deal was in place. It seems likely that the country will realize all or nearly all of its export potential, even if its Black Sea grain terminals remain out of action.

Moscow insists it is prepared to return to the grain deal once the West “fulfills its obligations”: a reference to the memorandum of understanding “on promoting Russian food products and fertilizers to the world markets” signed by Russia and the UN in July 2022 as part of the grain deal negotiations. But Moscow interprets “Western obligations” under the deal very liberally, and there is only one person who can decide whether or not the West is fulfilling them. That’s Vladimir Putin, and he seems to have developed a strong personal dislike of the agreement.

[...]

The global market, too, is managing just fine without the grain deal. Food prices have been falling for several months now. The price of wheat—the most sensitive to news from the Black Sea—soared after the grain deal collapsed, but then quickly began to fall, and is now lower than at the beginning of July, when the deal was still in place.

[...]

Secondly, the lack of progress on the grain deal increases the risk of further escalation in the Black Sea. Following the bombing of terminals in Ukraine’s Odesa region, Russia started using drones to attack ports on the Danube. The intensity of the attacks is constantly growing. So far, the traffic of vessels carrying grain from Ukrainian ports hasn’t noticeably decreased, though the cost of freight is on the rise. But the situation could change if the attacks continue at their current rate, or if a vessel is damaged.

[...]

There is no shortage, therefore, of risk factors. And if Kyiv can impact navigation in the Azov-Black Sea basin, that will create problems for Russian exports. Unlike Ukraine, Russia does not really have any alternative routes for exporting its grain.

De ryska drönarattackerna skapar bekymmer, men numera har Ukraina ett logistiskt övertag i spannmålsexporten. Putins villfarelser spökar som vanligt.

Ryssland hävdar att båda fartyg som förstördes i attacken mot Sevastopol kommer att repareras fullständigt. Nya läckta bilder avslöjar motsatsen.

Photos showing the aftermath of the Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strike on the Russian Pr. 636.3 "Rostov na Donu" submarine in Sevastopol- given the character of the damage we see, the missile hit the submarine in the follow through bomb mode, to devastating effect.

Stridsladdningen Broach har verkligen levererat!



Verkligheten är att Ryssland inte mäktar med den ukrainska utnötningen, oavsett vad den ryska propagandan påstår.

[Enceladus]

Dessutom lovar Ukraina att trappa upp drönarattackerna mot ryska fartyg:

An interview with the head of Ukraine’s defence intelligence

Amid reports that Russia is poised to step up its ongoing mobilisation drive, General Budanov says that headcount is the only obvious advantage that Russia still retains over Ukraine. “Human resources in Russia are, relatively speaking, unlimited. The quality is low, but the quantity is sufficient.” As far as other components of the war effort are concerned, Russian resources are being exhausted, and a reckoning is coming. Russia’s economy will hold out only until 2025, he says. The flow of weapons will dry up in 2026, “perhaps earlier”, he asserts—though the evidence to support his claims is patchy. Vladimir Putin’s talks with North Korea are an obvious indication of his problems. “If everything is fine and Russia has enough resources, why are they looking for them all over the world? The answer is obvious. There is nothing to extract any more.”

[...]

There are three main objectives for Ukraine’s new drone campaign against Russia: to exhaust Russia’s air-defence systems; to disable military transport and bombers; and to damage military production facilities, such as its recent operation that hit a factory producing rocket fuel in Tver region, just north of Moscow. “We want to get them out of their comfort zone.” A secondary aim is psychological, seeding disquiet among the population and disrupting normal economic processes inside Russia. The closure of big airports in St Petersburg and Moscow has, for example, become an almost daily occurrence.

General Budanov rejects suggestions that the new strike capacity risks escalation, or casts Ukraine as an aggressor. His forces do not violate the rules of war, he says. There have been “zero” civilian casualties in Russia, he says. That reflects a deliberate decision by Ukraine; it is not a matter of ability. “No one believes the UK or United States were the aggressors in the second world war, although they also bombed the territory of Germany.” As far as nuclear threats are concerned, these are arguments put forward by those sympathetic to the Russia lobby. The war has been an “absolutely conventional war...from the use of submarines to the use of strategic aviation.”

The spy chief says he is working on a limited deterrence and retaliation pose to counter Russia’s expected winter campaign of missile and drone strikes on infrastructure. “Let them start. They will also receive an answer.” But he does not expect his enemy ever to give up out of choice. War has been a constant for Russia throughout its history, he says. There can be no discussion of a ceasefire or a peace without Ukraine’s military establishing its own facts on the ground. “We understand we will not end the war with a victory parade in Moscow. But neither should Moscow ever hope to hold one in Kyiv.”

Budanov, chef för den ukrainska militära underrättelsetjänsten, uppger att Ukraina har ett svar på möjliga vinterattacker som Ryssland kanske bunkrar för.

Häromdagen utsattes Ryssland för ytterligare drönarattacker. Flygtrafiken stoppades på flygplatser utanför Moskva. Även en oljedepå förstördes.

Russia faces shortage of parts for drones and looks for workarounds

Restrictions imposed by the Chinese authorities on the export of drones have severely hampered their supply to Russia and led to a shortage of a number of components.

[...]

The newspaper has learned that restrictions on drone exports imposed by China on 1 September led to the suspension of supplies of components and drones weighing more than 4 kilograms.

China's ban on exporting drones with military applications has led to the cessation of supplies, even of products that do not fall under the restrictions. For example, there is a shortage of drones used in agriculture, which weigh about 30-40 kilograms and are not produced in large quantities in Russia.

Detta låter knappast som en "vänskap utan gränser" och utan "förbjudna samarbetsområden".

S.Korea to Send 2 Minesweepers to Ukraine

South Korea will send two K600 "Rhino" minefield breaching vehicles to war-torn Ukraine.

The Rhino is a homegrown minesweeper that either clears up a rear area or clears paths through a minefield on the frontline.

Though not a lethal weapon, the vehicle is the most warlike equipment South Korea has so far sent to Ukraine.

Sydkorea hjälper Ukraina mer än Kina hjälper Ryssland.

Russian forces near Norway at '20% or less' than before Ukraine war, Norway's armed-forces chief says

Moscow fires cruise missiles in sea drills between Russia and Alaska

The defence ministry said Vulcan, Granit and Onyx cruise missiles were fired over distances of hundreds of kilometres to strike targets simulating enemy ships in the Bering Sea.

The exercise involved land-, ship- and submarine-launched missiles and included about 10,000 military personnel, as well as planes and helicopters, the ministry said.

[...]

Russia is keen to demonstrate its continued ability to project force in the Arctic and the far east despite the strains on its armed forces from the 18-month war in Ukraine.

Har Ryssland verkligen råd att förbruka sina begränsade resurser på detta sätt?

[Enceladus]

Ukraina har eliminerat två exemplar av den senaste versionen av luftvärnssystemet Buk. Samtidigt är Ukrainas västerländska luftvärnssystem intakta.

Oryx uppger att Ryssland har förlorat 6 enheter av luftvärnssystemen Buk-M2, Buk-M3 samt S-300V4, av totalt 12 177 bekräftade förluster. Patriot är intakt!

Dessutom träffade ukrainskt artilleri några meter från ett ryskt luftvärnssystemen av typen Tor-M2, vilket borde vara tillräckligt för att förstöra dess radar.

Försvarsanalytikern Colby Badhwar har skrivit en lång tråd om det av Ukraina efterlängtade vapensystemet ATACMS:

I can't TL;DR this. You're going to want to read all of it, but the key takeaway is, needs ATACMS to destroy time sensitive targets & reduce expenditure rates of Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG. Without it, certain high value Russian assets are largely safe from destruction. (2/72)

[...]

Ground launched ballistic missiles on the other hand, can be fired from a launcher already near the front line, and hit their target within a matter of minutes, thanks to their speed. This responsiveness is critical for engaging Time Sensitive Targets (TSTs). (33/72)

[...]

Every system has limitations, ATACMS included. They are not particularly suitable for destroying hard targets, like bridges. For this, the best missile is the / Taurus KEPD 350 ALCM. If wants to destroy the Kerch Bridge, they need Taurus. (42/72)

Som synes har ATACMS både för- och nackdelar.

Vad som kan sägas utöver detta är att det förstås taktiskt är rent vansinne att använda ett värdefullt långräckviddigt precisionsvapen som ATACMS till att lägga ut klustermattor. ATACMS ska naturligtvis användas som Storm Shadow/SCALP EG, dvs. för angrepp mot hårdgjorda strukturer och fortifierade mål samt infrastrukturmål som broar, flygfält etc.

Badhwar håller inte med. Tvärtom, M39A1 beskrivs som ett undervapen:

The M39A1s should also be left with their current APAM payloads, rather than receiving new unitary warheads. The cluster munitions would be extremely effective against the distributed targets they were designed to destroy. See this chart again. (59/72)

Let's look at an ideal example target for a M39A1. This satellite picture from @Tatarigami_UA, which I've added a 130m radius to, shows a Russian helicopter base near Luhansk. 1 M39A1 ATACMS could achieve approximately 65% destruction against 5 helicopters. (60/72)

No other munition which Ukraine has, or could conceivably receive, would be even close to as effective against a target like this. Just another example of how disastrous of a decision it is to abandon conventional cluster munitions. (61/72)

Precis som övriga försvarsanalytiker förnekar Badhwar inte heller existensen av klusterladdade ATACMS-missiler...

Germany announces 400 mln euro aid package to Ukraine, but no Taurus yet - Bild

Germany will send Ukraine additional ammunition, protective vehicles and mine clearance systems as part of a 400 million euros ($427.84 million) new aid package but has not yet made a decision on sending Taurus cruise missiles, the German defence minister was quoted as saying on Monday.

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said Germany would supply various additional ammunition to Ukraine, including mine rockets and plans to send clothing and electricity and heat generators for the coming winter.

Tyskland presenterar ett nytt stödpaket. Dessvärre ingår inte Taurus-robotar, vilka Ukraina behöver enligt ovanstående utläggning.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Beträffande Vulcano-granaten är det nästan motbjudande att läsa Oleg Danylovs hyllningsskrift. Varje nytt vapensystem som tillförs Ukraina beskrivs mer eller mindre som the silver bullet, trots att det inte finns några undervapen.

Nu har Vulcano-granaten hittat till Ukraina. Den avfyras av Tysklands oförstörbarapjäs PzH 2000. Men det finns tydligen inga undervapen...

Tyskland vill skicka den italienska Vulcano-granaten till Ukraina, vilken på flera sätt är bättre än Excalibur-granaten.

Beträffande Vulcano-granaten är det nästan motbjudande att läsa Oleg Danylovs hyllningsskrift. Varje nytt vapensystem som tillförs Ukraina beskrivs mer eller mindre som the silver bullet, trots att det inte finns några undervapen. Underkalibrig ammunition är f.ö. ingen ny uppfinning. Den har sina fördelar, genom att granaten är mindre och lättare uppnår man en (i vissa fall betydligt) högre utgångshastighet och därmed en större räckvidd. Priset man får betala, jämfört med en spränggranat som Excalibur, är en (ibland betydligt mindre) mindre stridsladdning. Då får man öka effekten genom olika typer av splitterverkan, eller ex.vis pansarbrytande ammunition med riktad sprängverkan. En pilprojektil med tillräckligt hög hastighet kan dessutom slå igenom pansar enbart med hjälp av sin rörelseenergi.

Så varje vapensystem har sina för- och nackdelar på slagfältet, inget är a priori bättre än något annat. Vulcano 155 mm är f.ö resultatet av ett tysk-italienskt samarbete. Utan tyskarna hade italienarna aldrig kunnat ta fram ett sådant här vapen.

Ja, det tog bara ett år eller så. Som synes skrev jag mer om denna granattyp då, än vad Enceladus-kollektivets lögnaktiga citatförvrängning ger sken av. Kollektivets småpojksnonsens om "undervapen" kan jag tyvärr inte göra så mycket åt. Den som vill veta mer om denna granat kan läsa här:
https://www.militarytoday.com/artillery/vulcano.htm

Och naturligtvis är inga vapensystem oförstörbara: viewtopic.php?p=408033#p408033

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ett SvT-reportage visar hur ryssarna attackerar stillastående lastbilstransporter med Shahed-UAV-er: Långtradare blir måltavlor för ryska drönare
Transporterna av spannmål till Donauhamnarna verkar till stor del ske med lastbil.

Till ingens förvåning fortsätter skribentens ensidiga rapportering. Verkligheten ser dock helt annorlunda ut:

Till ingens förvåning fortsätter Enceladus-kollektivets lögnaktiga smutskastning av allt som inte passar kollektivets åsikter. Svt-reportaget (som tydligen också är ensidigt) beskriver en konkret verklighet i en konkret situation.

• Det finns en anhopning av spannmålslastade fordon, som väntar på att lossa sin last i Donauhamnarna
• Dessa uppställningar är ett sårbart mål för ryska UAV-attacker
• Detta problem måste adresseras på något sätt

Det är exakt vad detta handlar om, ingenting annat. Inga Carnegie-blaffor eller snack om "logistiskt övertag", "Putins villfarelser" etc. åtgärdar detta!
Carnegie-texten är f.ö. rätt bra i sin analys, mer ger inget stöd för Enceladus-kollektivets floskler.

Typisk Enceladus-kollektivet att vilseleda om detta.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Försvarsanalytikern Colby Badhwar har skrivit en lång tråd om det av Ukraina efterlängtade vapensystemet ATACMS:

I can't TL;DR this. You're going to want to read all of it, but the key takeaway is, needs ATACMS to destroy time sensitive targets & reduce expenditure rates of Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG. Without it, certain high value Russian assets are largely safe from destruction. (2/72)

[...]

Ground launched ballistic missiles on the other hand, can be fired from a launcher already near the front line, and hit their target within a matter of minutes, thanks to their speed. This responsiveness is critical for engaging Time Sensitive Targets (TSTs). (33/72)

[...]

Every system has limitations, ATACMS included. They are not particularly suitable for destroying hard targets, like bridges. For this, the best missile is the / Taurus KEPD 350 ALCM. If wants to destroy the Kerch Bridge, they need Taurus. (42/72)

Som synes har ATACMS både för- och nackdelar.

Vad som kan sägas utöver detta är att det förstås taktiskt är rent vansinne att använda ett värdefullt långräckviddigt precisionsvapen som ATACMS till att lägga ut klustermattor. ATACMS ska naturligtvis användas som Storm Shadow/SCALP EG, dvs. för angrepp mot hårdgjorda strukturer och fortifierade mål samt infrastrukturmål som broar, flygfält etc.

Badhwar håller inte med. Tvärtom, M39A1 beskrivs som ett undervapen:

The M39A1s should also be left with their current APAM payloads, rather than receiving new unitary warheads. The cluster munitions would be extremely effective against the distributed targets they were designed to destroy. See this chart again. (59/72)

Let's look at an ideal example target for a M39A1. This satellite picture from @Tatarigami_UA, which I've added a 130m radius to, shows a Russian helicopter base near Luhansk. 1 M39A1 ATACMS could achieve approximately 65% destruction against 5 helicopters. (60/72)

No other munition which Ukraine has, or could conceivably receive, would be even close to as effective against a target like this. Just another example of how disastrous of a decision it is to abandon conventional cluster munitions. (61/72)

Precis som övriga försvarsanalytiker förnekar Badhwar inte heller existensen av klusterladdade ATACMS-missiler...

Ja, det här var det mest svamliga jag läst. Vem den där Colby Badwar, som tydligen utnämnt sig själv till "försvarsanalytiker" (och som själv raljerar över "Armchair generals" - ett vanligt glåpord när man tror sig veta bäst) går inte att utröna (annat än på twitter), inte heller om det mytiska tochnyi-nätverket (annat än som twitterrykten). Trovärdigheten är väl ungefär som för den av småpojkskollektivet omhuldade "perun".

Texten innehåller inte mycket nytt. Skillnaden i stridsladdningar mellan kryssningmissiler som Storm Shadow/SCALP EG och halvballistiska missiler som ATACMS har jag redan redogjort för. De olika vapentyperna ersätter i sig inte varandra. Visst kan man attackera ex.vis broar med en missil som ATACMS, men kanske inte så stora objekt som Kertj-bron. Antonivka-bron oskadliggjordes ju ex.vis med M31-missiler.

Sedan är det mest gissningar om vad som kan finnas och inte finnas. "Försvarsanalytikern" lägger pussel med öppna källor, men det blir ändå gissningar. Min uppfattning att det inte finns belägg för att det längre existerar några operativa M39A1 står sig alltjämt. Hur det verkligen förhåller sig vet bara det fåtal som har tillgång till hemligstämplat information.

Det är en del som fortfarande tror på klustervapen. Utläggningarna är är väl ungefär som det inkrökta Suwalki-snacket tidigare: viewtopic.php?p=414657#p414657
Klusterfantasin "Just another example of how disastrous of a decision it is to abandon conventional cluster munitions" visar ju på det. Det finns en del klusterhökar. Enceladus-kollektivet är duktigt på att leta upp sådana, och man ser det man vill se.

I varje fall tillverkas inga nya klustervapen - och SLEP-programmet för ATACMS fortsätter, oavsett vilka "goda råd" "försvarsanalytikern" ger.

[Enceladus]

Sanktioner är ju inget som Ukraina kan verkställa, utan det ansvaret faller på Ukrainas partnerländer.

US imposes sanctions on companies that exported drone and aircraft components to Iran

On Tuesday, the US Department of the Treasury announced sanctions against a network of companies from Iran, China, Russia and Türkiye that facilitated the smuggling of components for the production of Iranian aircraft and drones.

Föga förvånande används Kina och Turkiet som mellanhänder. Men nu verkar USA äntligen ta i med hårdhandskarna, speciellt mot Nato-medlemmen Turkiet.

Denmark and other countries to transfer additional 45 tanks to Ukraine

The party will include 30 Leopard 1 tanks and 15 T-72 tanks. Poulsen said Denmark buys tanks in cooperation with other countries.

[...]

This is the first time that Denmark is handing over T-72 tanks, the advantage of which is that the Ukrainian military knows how to operate them, so they do not need to undergo training.

[...]

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen explained that this package opens a "new phase" in Danish aid to Ukraine. The country gave away most of what it could give directly from its weapons stockpiles, so in the future Copenhagen plans to focus on purchases in accordance with the current needs of Ukraine together with other allies.

Danmark fortsätter att stödja Ukraina.

Norway plans to deliver about 50 tracked trucks to Ukraine

The Norwegian government has announced plans to deliver to Ukraine about 50 tracked trucks, which are designed to deliver goods to areas where there are no roads.

[...]

Such cars can manoeuvre on terrain inaccessible to wheeled vehicles. They can transport ammunition, food and water to the Ukrainian military in the field.

Norge fortsätter att stödja Ukraina.

UK pledges "tens of thousands" more artillery shells for Ukraine

"Today we’ve demonstrated the UK’s unwavering commitment to Ukraine and set out more military support, including pledging tens of thousands more artillery shells to enable Ukraine to defend itself," defence minister Grant Shapps after a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG) in Germany said.

"We have also set out how the UK will go further in the coming months in our priority support areas, including air defence and long-range strike capabilities, and training."

UK fortsätter att stödja Ukraina.

[Enceladus]

Decision To Give ATACMS To Ukraine Is About To Become Easier

The pending arrival of the U.S. Army's new Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) could reduce some of the readiness risks that are associated with a potential transfer to Ukraine of older Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) — the tactical ballistic missile that PrSM intends to replace — according to the U.S. Army’s top weapons buyer.

The Ukrainian government has been actively seeking ATACMS for many months. The weapon has a significantly greater range than most of its existing ground-based strike options and it hits much harder. However, U.S. officials have repeatedly demurred, often citing the small size of its stockpile of these strategically important munitions, among a number of other major factors.

Douglas Bush, the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology, talked about his service's work on PrSM and the possibility of sending ATACMS to Ukraine to The War Zone and other outlets at a media roundtable earlier today. This comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in the United States, first for the U.N. General Assembly's annual high-level week. He is set to meet directly with U.S. President Joe Biden, as well as members of Congress, later in the week, engagements where the matter of ATACMS is expected to come up again.

Efterföljaren till ATACMS närmar sig. Därmed kan Ukraina snart få markbaserade långräckviddiga missiler.

US plans $325 million Ukraine aid announcement for Zelenskiy visit, official says

U.S. President Joe Biden plans to announce a $325 million military aid package for Ukraine on Thursday to coincide with a visit to Washington by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a U.S. official said on Wednesday on condition of anonymity.

The weapons aid package was expected to include the second tranche of cluster munitions fired by a 155 millimeter Howitzer cannon, the U.S official said.

Other new weapons for Ukraine were expected to be announced around the time of Biden's meeting with Zelenskiy, but not ATACMS missiles which have been under discussion, the U.S. official said.

Det dröjer dock ett tag till innan Ukraina får ATACMS. Klusterammunition får duga tills vidare.

Exclusive: Estonia’s Outgoing Military Spymaster on Russia’s War

When the war began, Grosberg gave two commands to his subordinates. First, they should not count the dead and wounded because doing so would eat up too many resources. Second, they should not gather intelligence about Ukraine for fear that these could lead to leaks to the press.

[...]

Grosberg estimates that Putin has enough resources to continue waging the war against Ukraine “at least as long as it has already been ongoing.” But this depends on several factors outside of Moscow’s and Kyiv’s control. “It depends on if the sanctions hold and how well we can implement them. It largely depends on how well we as the West can endure and how well we recognize that it is not just a piece of land. Ukraine is fighting over the same values that we respect and protect. As long as we understand this, the situation is satisfactory – far from good, but satisfactory.”

[...]

F-16 fighter jets and ATACMS, Grosberg insists, will bring Ukraine “one more step closer to victory” but won’t be “silver bullets” that will decide the war. “Russia is not sitting idly and waiting for the F-16s to arrive. They are taking measures to adapt against them and they have nine months to do so.”

[...]

How long will it take Russia to restore its military capabilities after the war? Russia still has roughly 6,000 tanks and between 8,000 and 9,000 armored vehicles in its inventory, Grosberg said. If it needs to “cannibalize” two vehicles in order to get one that actually works, it could still mobilize 2,000 tanks and 3,000 armored vehicles.

[...]

The balance of forces is largely equal and now the fight is not over territory but about which side can force their will on the other, Grosberg explained. It’s also about constantly keeping pressure that can eventually cause a breakthrough.

ATACMS kommer inte att avgöra kriget, men väl föra Ukraina ytterligare ett steg närmare segern. Klockan tickar för de ryska ockupanterna.

Claims Swirl Around ‘Sabotage Raid’ On Airbase Near Moscow

In a statement on X, formerly known as Twitter, Anton Gerashchenko, an advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, provided the following account of the operation, providing information that he attributed to the country’s military intelligence service or GUR:

“Unidentified saboteurs blew up two airplanes and a helicopter in Moscow region on September 18. The sabotage reportedly took place at the Chkalovsky Air Base, where government planes, “doomsday” planes, and reconnaissance aircraft are based. Unidentified persons placed explosives on a closely guarded airfield and blew up An-148 and Il-20 aircraft (both belonging to the 354th Special Operations Aviation Regiment), as well as a Mi-28N helicopter, which had previously been actively engaged in shooting down attack drones. Due to the damage, quick repair is impossible. The helicopter’s tail section was damaged. Another An-148, which was parked next to the others, sustained minor damage.”

[...]

With that in mind, a team of well-organized saboteurs having got through the fence at Chkalovsky is far from unthinkable. At this stage, however, there is little in the way of evidence to back up the GUR’s claims, although we will watch this story with interest for any further developments.

Två militärflygplan och en militärhelikopter har skadats efter en sabotageoperation på flygbasen Tjkalovsij i Moskvaregionen. Men VKS skulle ju vara intakt!

Russian Su-34 strike aircraft crashes in Voronezh region

A Russian Air Force Su-34 strike aircraft crashed during a training flight in the Voronezh region. Both crew members aboard the aircraft safely ejected.

[...]

According to pictures shared on social media, the aircraft crashed in a field. No damage or injuries were reported other than the loss of the airframe. The ministry said that the Su-34 was not carrying any ammunition during the training flight. An investigation into the incident was opened.

The last accidental loss of a Russian Su-34 occurred on the evening of October 17, 2022, when a fighter-bomber crashed into a residential building in the city of Yeysk, on the coast of the Sea of Azov. The two crew members managed to eject, but 15 people were killed on the ground.

Ryssland har i nuläget 12 213 visuellt bekräftade förluster, varav 2 329 stridsvagnar, 91 flygplan, 105 helikoptrar, 14 strids- och 287 spaningsdrönare.

[Enceladus]

Czechia in talks to train Ukrainians on Swedish Gripen fighter jets on its territory

Czechia is currently negotiating with Sweden on the possibility of conducting training for Ukrainian pilots on Gripen fighter jets in Czechia.

Nu återstår bara det kanske allra svåraste: att Erdogan och Orban får ändan ur vagnen och äntligen godkänner Sveriges anslutning till Nato.

U.S. will send Ukraine long-range missiles, after delay

The Biden administration is nearing an announcement that it will provide Ukraine with a version of ATACMS long-range missiles armed with cluster bomblets rather than a single warhead, according to several people familiar with the ongoing deliberations.

[...]

The cluster-armed ATACMS, with a range of up to 190 miles, depending on the version chosen, could allow Ukraine to strike command posts, ammunition stores and logistics routes far behind Russian front lines and dug-in defenses. Ukraine, with backing from a number of U.S. lawmakers, has been asking since last year for ATACMS, which stands for Army Tactical Missile System.

[...]

But the cluster-armed version of ATACMS are more plentiful than those topped with a single — or “unitary” — warhead and are no longer considered a front-line U.S. weapon. From an estimated original production of 2,500, some from the early 1990s, an unknown number were later refitted with unitary warheads, according to a fiscal year 2018 Defense Department publication. But many of the cluster variant remain in stockpiles. Consideration of the cluster warhead ATACMS was first reported by Reuters.

USA väntas skicka en långdistansrobot till Ukraina som enligt en viss skribent inte existerar!

Biden tells Zelenskyy that U.S. will send Ukraine ATACMS long-range missiles

President Joe Biden has told his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that the United States will provide a small number of long-range missiles to aid the war with Russia, three U.S. officials and a congressional official familiar with the discussions told NBC News on Friday.

The officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly, did not say when the missiles would be delivered or when a public announcement would be made.

[...]

The White House initially withheld approval for requests for Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Howitzer artillery pieces, anti-ship missiles and HIMARS systems, but later gave the green light to them being shipped.

The latest move comes just over two months after Biden signed a presidential waiver on the transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine, despite concerns from human rights groups and some U.S. allies that their use will lead to more civilian casualties.

Bidens beslut att skicka ATACMS till Ukraina, och dessutom den klusterladdade varianten, är i praktiken officiellt.

Biden Told Zelensky U.S. Is Willing to Provide Long-Range ATACMS Missiles

President Biden has told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he is willing to provide advanced long-range, surface-to-surface missiles to help Kyiv with its counteroffensive, U.S. officials say.

Officials said that a small number of missiles from the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, will be sent in coming weeks and more could be provided later.

[...]

The U.S. provision of ATACMS could also encourage Germany to provide its Taurus long-range cruise missile. Berlin has indicated that it prefers to move with Washington in providing new types of military aid.

Ytterligare en källa bekräftar beslutet. Vidare kan det komma fler missiler i framtiden! Kommer även Taurus?

US Drops Resistance to Sending Ukraine Long-Range Missiles

The Biden administration has agreed to provide Ukraine with a limited number of long-range ATACMS missiles, following a request from President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, people familiar with the matter said.

President Joe Biden reversed his initial reluctance to provide the weapons, which Zelenskiy has repeatedly pressed for so his army can hit targets deeper in Russian-held territory. Biden informed Zelenskiy of the decision Thursday, when the Ukrainian leader was visiting Washington to make his case for more support, one of the people said.

The White House and State Department declined to comment. In a briefing Thursday, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden to date “has determined that he would not provide ATACMS, but he has also not taken it off the table in the future.”

Bara igår förnekade Sullivan att Ukraina skulle få ATACMS!

[Enceladus]

Biden to supply Kyiv with long-range ATACMS missiles after months of lobbying

US president Joe Biden has decided to send American long-range missiles known as ATACMS to Ukraine after months of deliberations over whether to provide Kyiv with the munitions, according to people familiar with the matter.

[...]

The decision was made before Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the US this week, but the Biden administration chose not to announce it publicly. One person said this was to avoid tipping off the Russians, prompting them to move their supply lines further back from the frontline.

[...]

The US will send them in the near future, in small numbers at first, the people said.

[...]

But after the Pentagon and other agencies signed off on it, officials said they had become comfortable enough to send them. Sending the cluster bomblet kind helped to ameliorate some of the officials’ concerns because they would not deplete stocks of the missiles with unitary warheads, according to the people familiar with the discussions.

[...]

On Friday Ukraine’s air force fired two Storm Shadow missiles that hit the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea. It was the latest strike in an intensifying air campaign against Moscow’s military on the Black Sea peninsula.

ATACMS have an advantage over the British and French missiles because they can be fired from Himars launchers rather than Ukraine’s ageing Soviet-era fighter jets.

Ännu en artikel om ATACMS. Tydligen är det tänkt att missilen ska bli en överraskning för ockupanterna. Hoppas att de inte läser västerländska tidningar!

Fredagens attack mot Sevastopol tycks ha varit mycket framgångsrik. Har ATACMS liknande vapenverkan och förmåga att kringgå det ryska luftförsvaret?

Exclusive: Ukraine’s special services ‘likely’ behind strikes on Wagner-backed forces in Sudan, a Ukrainian military source says

Sudan army chief holds talks with Ukraine’s Zelenskyy

The Head of Sudan’s ruling Sovereign Council Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan met on Saturday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

[...]

Western diplomats and media have claimed Russian support for the RSF amid reports that the Russian mercenary group Wagner was operating in Sudan. Russia has used the Wagner militia during last year’s invasion of Ukraine.
​​​​​​​
Media reports also emerged about Ukrainian military support to the Sudanese army. The claims, however, were denied by both the Sudanese army and the RSF.

Ukraina har fått sudanesiska artillerigranater medan Sudan har fått ukrainska drönare. Ryssland är den stora förloraren.

Wagnergrupper har förlorat ännu en flygfarkost i Afrika, denna gång ett transportflygplan av typen Il-76 i Mali. Är det svårt att ersätta Prigozjin?

Vidare har ryska styrkor förlorat 34 flygfarkoster i Ryssland, Ukraina och Belarus utanför strid, exklusive förlusterna i Afrika. Men VKS skulle ju vara intakt!

Non-combat losses of Russian aviation during the full-scale war in Ukraine:

Su-34 - 8 units;
Su-25 - 8 units;
MiG-31 - 5 units;
Ka-52 - 3 units;
Mi-8 - 3 units;
Su-24 - 2 units;
Su-30 - 1 unit;
Mi-28 - 1 unit;
Mi-24 - 1 unit;
L-39 - 1 unit;
ANSAT-U - 1 unit;

TOTAL: 25 aircraft / 9 helicopters.

Kinzhal har nackdelen att den avfyras från en flygande plattform (MiG-31K), varav Ryssland bara har ett fåtal. Förra året producerade Ryssland 27 flygplan.

Sixth russian MiG-31 Crashed Since 2022, This Time in Kamchatka

Enligt tidigare nämnda källa har Ryssland emellertid förlorat minst sex stycken MiG-31 utanför strid (jämfört med fem ovan). I varje fall är VKS inte intakt.