Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

Budanov tycks vara den person som ryska militärbloggare avskyr mest - snarare än Zelenskyj eller Zaluzjnyj. Det är alltid intressant att höra hans tankar.

Dessutom har krigsförbrytaren Stanislav Rzhitskij skjutits ihjäl i den ryska staden Krasnodar:

Sociala medier skriver om ett märkligt sammanträffande avseende gårdagens mord på krigsförbrytaren Rzhitskij:

And apparently he would post his runs on a running app, which Budanov, the head of Ukrianian intelligence, would "like."

Budanov gillamarkerade Rzhitskijs inlägg om sina joggingrundor innan han blev ihjälskjuten. Inte konstigt att ryska nationalister fruktar honom så mycket!

Africa exerting ‘pressure’ on Putin over Ukraine, says Sierra Leone president

African leaders tell Putin to show his ‘desire for peace’

African leaders told Vladimir Putin to “show his desire to move forward [with peace]” before they convene in St Petersburg for a Russia-Africa summit at the end of this month, according to Senegal’s president Macky Sall.

The demand was delivered to the Russian president during a six-nation peace mission to Kyiv and Moscow in June, Sall said in an interview with the Financial Times. Sall was joined on the trip by his counterparts from South Africa, Zambia and representatives from Uganda, Egypt, Republic of Congo and the African Union.

“Before the next Russia-Africa summit, he [Putin] must do some actions to show his desire to move forward [with peace] even in a humanitarian way,” Sall told the FT in the presidential palace in Dakar, the Senegalese capital.

Putins afrikanska charmoffensiv verkar inte gå så bra, eller någon annanstans för den delen: Global trust in Russia and Putin at all-time low — survey

[Odd]

NATO:
Att hålla avtal är liksom inte turkarnas grej. Slår vad om att man kommer att hitta nån ny grej som gör att det hela fördröjs...

Det känns allt mer som På Kurs Med Kurt...

[Enceladus]

Disputed Maritime Field A Test Of Newly Restored Iran-Saudi Ties

A disputed maritime field in the Persian Gulf is becoming a litmus test for the recent détente between Tehran and Riyadh as controversies surrounding it escalate.

[...]

Mohebbali told Entekhab new website in Tehran last week that in keeping with historic trends, China and Russia care more about their relations with Arab countries than with Iran. “Apparently, Iran's friends do not pay much attention to Iran's demands and pay more attention to the rivals’ [Arab] demands,” he said.

The former diplomat showed how hand-tied the regime is in its current international position by his veiled threats. “It is crucial that Russia knows if it pursues such a policy, Iran can likewise adjust its policies on issues such as Crimea and Ukraine,” he said.

Kina betraktar Ryssland som en underordnad partner. Ryssland gör detsamma med Iran - liksom Kina förstås. Har diktaturer ingen respekt för varandra?

Senior Russian general in Ukraine says he was dismissed after criticizing lack of support for troops

General Ivan Popov was the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, which has been involved in heavy fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region. He is one of the most senior officers involved in the Russian campaign in Ukraine.

In a voice note, Popov said that he raised questions about "the lack of counter-battery combat, the absence of artillery reconnaissance stations and the mass deaths and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery. I also raised a number of other problems and expressed it all at the highest level frankly and extremely harshly."

Popov said that the Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu then dismissed him.

Wagnergruppens uppror må vara över, men inte dess orsaker:

The Prigozhin mutiny may be over, but the causes of the mutiny - the war going badly, the corruption and incompetence at the top exposed - are still there. A major Russian commander, dismissed yesterday, made an audio address to his troops saying that they were stabbed in the back by "higher authorities".

Kan detta bli Rysslands version av dolkstötslegenden?

Från dagens ISW-sammanfattning:

Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin claimed that certain members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle may push Putin to end the war in order to depose him. Girkin claimed that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion succeeded, resulting in a power redistribution according to the plans of Prigozhin’s patrons, whom Girkin suggested include Presidential Administration First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko, billionaire and Putin’s reported personal banker Yuri Kovalchuk, and energy executives Arkady and Boris Rotenberg.[27] Girkin claimed that the power structure including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Moscow Oblast Governor Andrei Vorobev, and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has been weakened following the rebellion. Girkin claimed that members of the “Ozero Cooperative” – an association unifying the dachas of Putin and several members of his inner circle in Leningrad Oblast – want to oust Putin in favor of one of its own members, such as Prigozhin or Kiriyenko. Girkin claimed that the “Ozero Cooperative” first aims to sabotage Russian military operations, the defense industrial base (DIB), and control of rear areas to make Putin realize he must accept defeat in the war. Girkin warned that the “Ozero Cooperative” members will target the Ministry of Defense, Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), and other structures outside the control of the presidential administration.

Girkin’s claims are likely part of his ongoing effort to diminish Russian political and domestic support for a potential ceasefire in the war in Ukraine, but his targeting of specific members of Putin’s inner circle is notable. Girkin has repeatedly accused Prigozhin of being part of the faction arguing in favor of freezing the lines in Ukraine while Girkin has argued in favor of a grinding, protracted war effort, as ISW has previously reported.[28] Kiriyenko in particular is a prominent Kremlin mouthpiece for domestic policy and occupation matters. Kiriyenko has reportedly positioned himself to expand his political reach in recent years, including into education development, oversight of regional elections, development of the Russian internet and information bloc, and political nongovernmental organizations.[29] Russian opposition outlet Meduza, citing sources within the presidential administration, previously reported that Kiriyenko is attempting to position himself as a possible successor to Putin.[30] Meduza’s sources saw Kiriyenko’s lack of connection to regional governments or businesses as undermining his prospects but noted that Kiriyenko is likely able to overcome these issues. Girkin is most likely attempting to portray Prigozhin as a direct threat to Putin’s regime in order to encourage harsher Kremlin action against Prigozhin and discourage any efforts to freeze the front in Ukraine. Girkin may be trying to discredit Kiriyenko and other claimed Prigozhin patrons to undermine any support that Prigozhin may have among any possible remaining prominent patrons.[31]

Ultranationalisten Girkin är ingen trovärdig källa, men han är en före detta FSB-officer. Ozero är en av grupperna i Putins inre cirkel. Den sägs ogilla kriget.

[Enceladus]

Russian troops are battling high and drunk: It’s nothing new

Alcohol abuse is widespread not only among ordinary citizens but also among senior politicians. Recently, heavy drinking has reached alarming levels within the administration. According to a report by the Russian independent portal Verstka, Kremlin officials have escalated from seeking solace in a glass of vodka to consuming an entire bottle during their working hours.

This surge in alcohol consumption can be attributed to the stress caused by the war in Ukraine, internal tensions within the ruling camp and Western sanctions. The problem has worsened since March when Kyiv announced its upcoming counteroffensive, and Prigozhin’s rebellion, which revealed cracks in Putin’s leadership, might exacerbate the situation.

[...]

Amid the escalating issue of substance abuse in the military, the involvement of the Wagner Group is worth considering, as they recruit members from penal colonies populated by convicts with drug-related offenses. In exchange for sentences of eight to 15 years in prison, these convicts-turned-recruits can earn their freedom if they stay alive for six months in combat. Although no official statistics are available, numerous dead fighters identified as Wagner’s mercenaries buried in Bakinskaya village near Krasnodar were previously convicted of drug offenses. The presence of illegal substances in penitentiaries indicates that many of Wagner’s men had prior drug addictions, as revealed by Radio Liberty’s investigation into the mercenaries who underwent rehabilitation at the hotel resorts in the Krasnodar territory, where they rampantly consumed alcohol and drugs.

Missbruket ökar i Ryssland - hos såväl politiker som soldater. Bruk av alkohol och narkotika har ofta syftet att koppla av - eller fly verkligheten.

Thousands of Ukraine civilians are being held in Russian prisons. Russia plans to build many more

The Ukrainian civilians woke long before dawn in the bitter cold, lined up for the single toilet and were loaded at gunpoint into the livestock trailer. They spent the next 12 hours or more digging trenches on the front lines for Russian soldiers.

Many were forced to wear overlarge Russian military uniforms that could make them a target, and a former city administrator trudged around in boots five sizes too big. By the end of the day, their hands curled into icy claws.

Nearby, in the occupied region of Zaporizhzhia, other Ukrainian civilians dug mass graves into the frozen ground for fellow prisoners who had not survived. One man who refused to dig was shot on the spot — yet another body for the grave.

Att behandla lokalbefolkningen som trälar kan vara en taktisk fördel, men väl en strategisk nackdel. Putin är som bekant ingen strateg.

IEA cuts oil demand growth forecast for 2023

The downwards revision is the first this year by the Paris-based agency, which had been steadily increasing demand growth forecasts since January. The IEA's latest Oil Market Report (OMR) now sees world oil demand growing by 2.23mn b/d to 102.08mn b/d in 2023. Its previous forecast had demand growing by 2.45mn b/d.

[...]

While China is set to account for the majority of the world's demand growth this year — around 1.6mn b/d — the IEA said its post-pandemic reopening had so far failed to extend beyond travel and services and that its economic recovery was losing steam.

[...]

"Higher flows from Iran, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, the US and other non-Opec+ producers have so far blunted the impact of cutbacks by some Opec+ countries," the IEA said. But Saudi Arabia's decision to cut crude output by 1mn b/d for July and August should see supply "shift towards a lower trajectory in coming months," it said. On Russia's pledge to cut oil exports by 500,000 b/d for August, the IEA said this might not affect production because to rising seasonal domestic demand.

Detta år kommer inte Rysslands budget att räddas av ett högt oljepris.

Frontline report: Ukrainian HIMARS strikes hit Russian artillery as Russia fires southern front’s general

A recent video shows how Ukrainians identified and destroyed two rocket artillery systems, Uragan, and the trucks that delivered them ammunition. Uragan is one of the best Russian artillery systems that use much bigger caliber rockets and has a range almost twice of Grad systems. The video shows how the first rocket destroyed a truck with equipment, and less than 2 seconds later, another rocket hit Uragan itself. The same day, Ukrainians spotted another Uragan in a tree line – they immediately targeted the ammunition depot and the Uragan system, causing it to detonate.

Samtidigt fortsätter utnötningen. Uragan sägs vara ett av Rysslands bästa artillerisystem.

Norway to provide Ukraine with 2 NASAMS launchers and a thousand drones

In addition to the NASAMS air defense support package, Norway will transfer 1,000 new Black Hornet drone kits to Ukraine, Norwegian Minister Arild Gram reports.

Dessutom utökar Norge sitt bidrag till Ukrainas försvar - med luftvärn och drönare.

[Enceladus]

Att hålla avtal är liksom inte turkarnas grej. Slår vad om att man kommer att hitta nån ny grej som gör att det hela fördröjs...

Ja, kanske det ja, men nu ska ju turkskurken Erdogan ha belöning för sitt trilskande: Turkey Finally Looks Set To Get New F-16s (Observera att The WarZone håller fast vi den gamla kalkonstavningen)

Turkey's F-16s in doubt after Erdogan says no Sweden vote before October

Menendez remains the hardest sell but said Monday he could make a decision on the F-16s "in the next week." That leaves a short window before the Turkish parliament is expected to take off for its summer recess later this month. (Parliamentary leadership, however, could theoretically call lawmakers back into session at any time to vote on Sweden's ratification.)

Alan Makovsky, a longtime former staffer on the House Foreign Affairs Committee who is now a Turkey analyst at the Center for American Progress, described a chicken-and-egg dilemma for Turkey and the United States.

“I would expect that the administration will try to push Erdogan to ratify immediately, and at the same time try to get Menendez to ‘yes,’” Makovsky said. “It's hard for me to believe that the administration is content to let this thing go until October. … Too much can happen.”

Vad kommer först, Turkiets eller USA:s godkännande? USA vill nog inte vänta ända till oktober. Som sagt, för mycket kan hända.

En sak som definitivt kommer att hända är att Ryssland fortsätter att förlora officerare:

The mark of 2 500 Russian officers killed in Ukraine has been crossed. The last 500 names were added in about 100 days.

Häromdagen dog generallöjtnant Oleg Tsokov i en ukrainsk attack mot ett hotell på ockuperat territorium. Enligt rykten fick Ukraina tips från missnöjda.

Russia Detained Several Senior Military Officers in Wake of Wagner Mutiny

Hours after Russian paramilitary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin began a short-lived march on Moscow, the country’s domestic security service detained several high-ranking military officers, including Gen. Sergei Surovikin, head of aerospace forces, people familiar with the situation said.

Surovikin, known as General Armageddon for bombing campaigns he waged in Syria, is being held and interrogated in Moscow, the people said. He hasn’t been charged with a crime. One said Surovikin knew about plans for the insurrection but that the general wasn’t involved in the mutiny.

The Kremlin’s effort to weed out officers suspected of disloyalty is broader than publicly known, according to the people, who said at least 13 senior officers were detained for questioning, with some later released, and around 15 suspended from duty or fired.

Finns det några kompetenta officerare kvar i den ryska militären?

[Enceladus]

Ukraine warns key Russian gas supply to Europe will be cut

“I believe, by the winter of 2024, Europe will not need Russian gas at all,” Galushchenko said in a telephone interview. “If now profits from Russian gas pay for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and Gazprom’s private army, the only thing they should pay for in the future shall be reparations.”

[...]

Gazprom chief Alexei Miller warned last week his company will stop exports if Ukraine doesn't drop its efforts to seize Russian state assets to enforce a $5 billion award for the energy infrastructure Moscow illegally expropriated when it annexed Crimea in 2014. Gazprom and Ukraine's Naftogaz are also at loggerheads over a dispute on transit fees.

[...]

However, there is growing criticism the EU countries still using Russian gas aren't moving fast enough to diversify. Austria's Russian gas imports are back to prewar levels. Hungary gets around 4.5 billion cubic meters a year. In April, its government signed a deal with Gazprom to secure additional volumes.

Både Ukraina och Ryssland hotar att avbryta avtalet där rysk gas flödar genom Ukraina mot betalning. De vanliga misstänkta är Österrike och Ungern.

Wagnergruppens uppror må vara över, men inte dess orsaker:

Dara Massicot kommenterar kaoset i den ryska militärledningen:

Dysfunction is reaching peak levels in the Russian military command as another general is sacked for speaking truth to power and others are detained, or under suspicion. Where incompetence meets betrayal: a thread of the Russian high command and implications for the front /1

[...]

Gerasimov and Shoigu have a history of privately and publicly kicking around their subordinate for various infractions: understanding the tactical situation better (Surovikin), perhaps too popular with the men or trusted by Putin (Teplinskiy) or flag urgent problems (Popov) /3

[...]

To recap: exactly where on the front that Russian forces need relief, Shoigu/Gerasimov sack their commander for saying so in direct terms. Popov has enough and posts a message. In doing do, he could either inspire others to speak out, or keep their heads down. /15

Samtidigt har Ryssland just förlorat 2 500 officerare i Ukraina...

Russia's economy is in shambles and its oil exports are collapsing — but its crude oil just smashed a crucial price cap

A $60-a-barrel price cap has been imposed on Russia by the G7 countries to achieve two goals: it would limit Moscow's energy revenues being routed into the Ukraine war, and it still allowed Russian oil to continue flowing to the world economy, thereby keeping a lid on red-hot inflation.

But Russia's flagship Urals crude oil prices have busted the price cap to reach $60.32 on Tuesday — its highest level since mid-November 2022, according to a S&P Global commodity insights report.

[...]

After all, the price cap has severely hit Russia's coffers this year. The country posted a current-account surplus of $5.4 billion in the second quarter — marking a massive 93% plunge from a record $76.7 billion surplus in the same period last year, according to Russia's central bank data released Tuesday.

Priset på rysk olja har nått ett nytt årshögsta - precis över G7:s pristak - men det är inte tillräckligt för att rädda Rysslands ekonomi.

Chef and Chief: Portrait of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the personal sadist of the Russian president

Two weeks after the end of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny, many people are still asking the same question: how was all that possible? The answer is simpler than it may seem: Prigozhin, a violent, out-of-control criminal, had been breaking numerous laws of the state and morality for decades and getting away with it, all thanks to Vladimir Putin’s personal involvement in his fate. The Project will now draw a criminal and psychological portrait of Putin’s chef.

[...]

The Chief did not always beat his employees himself – violence was a daily occurrence in his office, and there was a special person there for that purpose. One of The Project’s interlocutors recalls that once a colleague of his misbehaved at a meeting and then disappeared. His co-workers tried to call him to no avail. He did not turn up at work until a couple of weeks later, explaining that he had spent several days in the basement below the office, where they were beating him up. He pointed to the yellow bruises all over his body as proof and soon changed jobs. The man who beats employees in the basement is known collectively as “The Teacher.” “He is the executioner who [snusk] you up in the basement and sends [Prigozhin] a photo so [he] can decide whether to [beat you up] some or whether you’ve had enough,” recounted Vyacheslav Tarasov, formerly one of the most important employees in the office, in a video appeal on June 24, the day of the mutiny.

Tydligen var Putin och Prigozjin mycket nära vänner. Ryssland är en maffiastat, ett uttryck som myntades av förgiftade Aleksandr Litvinenko.

Ja, stämningen var visst inte helt hjärtlig, om man säger så: Zelensky Blasts Bulgarian President Over Opposition To Arming Kyiv

Bulgaria will consider the possibility of transferring 100 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine

Bulgaria will consider the transfer of about 100 armored personnel carriers from the Ministry of Internal Affairs warehouses to Ukraine as defense assistance.

Ivaylo Mirchev, the MP from the We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria coalition, stated this.

[...]

With this transfer, Bulgarian politicians expect to receive armored vehicle replacements from the United States.

Stämningen är sekundär. Det huvudsakliga är att Bulgariens omfattande militära stöd till Ukraina fortsätter.

[Enceladus]

‘It’s really the Wild West’: Vienna’s spying problem spins out of control

“It really is the Wild West,” said one western diplomat. “It’s almost comical how much is being gotten away with here. Even from our side, I am sure.”

Chinese, Iranian, Israeli and Saudi agents are also present in Austria in high numbers, along with dozens of American, British and European officials assigned to monitor them.

The situation has become a headache for Austria’s conservative-green coalition government. But tanking poll ratings and a fractious domestic debate over Austrian neutrality have pushed the spying issue downwards on the government’s priority list.

Österrike är ökänt för att vara centrum för ryska spioner i Europa. Även spioner från andra länder är närvarande - inklusive västerländska.

Iran Paid for Su-35 Jets, But Russia Won’t Deliver Them

According to one current and one former diplomat with direct knowledge of the matter, Iran made “full payment” for 50 Su-35 fighter jets during the second term of President Hassan Rouhani. The officials requested anonymity given the sensitivity of Iran’s arms purchases. According to the former diplomat, at the time of purchase Russia had promised to deliver the Su-35s in 2023. Neither source expects that the deliveries will be made this year.

[...]

The delay in the delivery could be traced to the strong relationship between Russia and Israel. In June, Axios reported that Israeli officials confronted Russian counterparts over Russia’s growing military cooperation with Iran and the possibility of Russia providing Iran advanced weapon systems. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disclosed the “open and frank” dialogue with Russian officials in a closed-door hearing with Israeli lawmakers on June 13.

Ryssland har fått tusentals iranska drönare, men Iran verkar inte få ryska stridsflygplan. Har Israel än en gång spelat ut Iran på den geopolitiska arenan?

Iran Is So Weak, Russia And China Ignore Its Interests - Ex-Diplomat

Mohebali, who was once the director general of Middle East Affairs at the Iranian Foreign Ministry, also said in an interview with moderate news website Entekhab that "Iran's friends apparently pay more attention to the wishes of its rivals."

He added that the odd stance by Russia is an outcome of Tehran's imbalanced foreign policy. This was a reference to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's ‘Looking East’ foreign policy which totally ignores the West and pins all hopes on Russia and China.

Iran kan behöva ompröva sin ensidiga utrikespolitik för att undvika liknande motgångar. I ovanstående fall handlar det om Gulfstaterna snarare än Israel.

Majority of Republicans vote down Greene, Gaetz Ukraine bills

Five House Republican-backed initiatives to curtail aid to Ukraine using the annual Pentagon policy bill were shot down Thursday afternoon in votes that saw a consensus from both sides of the aisle to keep money flowing to Kyiv.

The Ukraine-related amendments to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) would have effectively limited or rolled back U.S. involvement in Ukraine, but a majority of Republicans joined Democrats in opposition to the proposals.

[...]

Democrats did push for several Ukraine-related priorities that ended up not making it to vote, including an amendment from Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) to stop the United States from transferring cluster munitions abroad.

Det amerikanska stödet för Ukraina är alltjämt kompakt. Vissa demokrater försökte stoppa leveransen av klusterammunition, men det lyckades inte heller.

Covert Cabal har publicerat en ny video om Rysslands vapenförråd. Denna gång är temat artilleripjäser:



Enligt satellitbilder har antalet dragna pjäser i Rysslands vapenförråd nästan halverats, från 12 345 till 7 500 pjäser. Antalet självgående pjäser har däremot minskat marginellt, från 5 093 till 4 408 pjäser. Tydligen är det lättare att renovera dragna pjäser. Jämför även bekräftade förluster under motoffensiven.

[Enceladus]

South Korea's Yoon pledges more military supplies, aid to Ukraine

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said on Saturday his country will provide a bigger batch of military supplies and humanitarian aid to Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv for a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

The surprise trip came after Yoon attended a NATO alliance summit in Lithuania and visited Poland this week, where he expressed solidarity with Ukraine against Russia's invasion.

South Korea is a U.S. ally and the world's ninth biggest arms exporter, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) think tank. But it is also wary of Russia's influence over North Korea and has been resisting Western pressure to help arm Ukraine directly.

[...]

In 2022, South Korea's arms sales jumped to more than $17 billion from $7.25 billion the year before, including a $13.7 billion arms deal with Poland - Seoul's biggest ever - supplying rocket launchers and fighter jets.

Sydkorea lovar att öka sitt stöd till Ukraina efter att landets president Yoon Suk Yeol gjorde ett oväntat besök i den ukrainska huvudstaden Kyjiv.

Putin discusses grain deal, awkward BRICs summit with Ramaphosa

Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in which they discussed the Black Sea grain deal, due to expire on Monday, and a summit in South Africa next month, the Kremlin said on Saturday.

Ramaphosa finds himself in an awkward position as host of the BRICS summit because of an arrest warrant issued against Putin in March by the International Criminal Court (ICC), which accused him of the war crime of deporting Ukrainian children to Russia.

Sydafrikas president Cyril Ramaphosa har pratat i telefon med Rysslands president Vladimir Putin om spannmålsavtalet och Brics-mötet. Oenigheten är stor:

South Africa urges Putin to not attend August summit due to international arrest warrant

“It’s a big dilemma for us. Of course, we cannot arrest him,” Mashatile said. “It’s almost like you invite your friend to your house, and then arrest them. That’s why for us, his not coming is the best solution. The Russians are not happy, though. They want him to come.”

Mashatile was put in charge of finding a solution by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. Russia has rejected the alternatives, which included moving the summit to China, holding a virtual summit or Russia being represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Mashatile said.

Ramaphosa will now attempt to convince Putin not to travel to South Africa when they meet at the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg at the end of this month, Mashatile said.

Som om Sydafrika inte redan hade tillräckligt med problem...

Jacob Zuma in Russia for ‘health reasons’, spokesperson says

The former South African president Jacob Zuma is receiving medical treatment in Russia, his spokesperson has said, a day after the country’s highest court upheld a ruling that he should return to prison.

[...]

The former head of state attended a conference last week on carbon credits in Zimbabwe, where he announced a donation of 7m credits for the country’s new market, on behalf of a Belarusian company.

[...]

Zuma is one of the generation of anti-apartheid fighters whose cause was supported by the Soviet Union and who retains political or personal links with Moscow.

Ramaphosa är i alla fall mindre korrupt än Zuma, om än långt ifrån perfekt.

[Enceladus]

Shoigu Dismisses Another Russian Top General

The VCHK-OGPU informs, citing a source, that Sergei Shoigu continues purges inside the Ministry of Defense. Hero of Russia, Major General Vladimir Seliverstov was removed from the post of commander of the Tula 106th Airborne Division.

It is noted that this division since January of this year participated in the battles on the Bakhmut frontline. Aleksey Dyumin, the governor of the Tula region, stood up for Seliverstov, but he still failed to keep the position.

[...]

Russian General Sergei Surovikin is still in isolation after the Wagner mutiny. However, the “war” in the RF Ministry of Defense continues. Recently, General Ivan Popov was removed from his post.

Flera högt uppsatta generaler i den ryska försvarsledningen har petats. Andra syns inte till i offentligheten. Enligt rykten finns det djupt rotade konflikter:

Good question to ask here is if Shoygu / Gerassimov now completely bypassed Teplinsky (who they were in conflict with) after rumours appeared about later being in unofficial command of war (to what nearly certainly RUMOD released Gerassimov vid).

Mikail Teplinskij är väl en av få kvarvarande generaler i den ryska försvarsledningen som är kompetent, om han nu finns kvar...

Wagner mercenaries have arrived in Belarus, Ukraine confirms

The DPSU says it is assessing how many "militants" are in Belarus, which also shares a border with Ukraine, as well as their exact location and goals.

One unconfirmed report said a convoy of some 60 Wagner vehicles rolled over the border into Belarus early on Saturday.

[...]

Mr Putin also said that under Russian law, Wagner "does not exist", because mercenary groups are not officially recognised. But that "difficult issue" should be discussed in parliament, the president added.

Det sägs att Putin föreslog Andrej Trosjov som ny ledare för Wagnergruppen, men som bekant togs förslaget inte väl emot, milt uttryckt.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ja, stämningen var visst inte helt hjärtlig, om man säger så: Zelensky Blasts Bulgarian President Over Opposition To Arming Kyiv

Bulgaria will consider the possibility of transferring 100 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine

Bulgaria will consider the transfer of about 100 armored personnel carriers from the Ministry of Internal Affairs warehouses to Ukraine as defense assistance.

Ivaylo Mirchev, the MP from the We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria coalition, stated this.

[...]

With this transfer, Bulgarian politicians expect to receive armored vehicle replacements from the United States.

Stämningen är sekundär. Det huvudsakliga är att Bulgariens omfattande militära stöd till Ukraina fortsätter.

De som bekvämade sig att läsa den refererade artikeln i The WarZone,
(https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... rming-kyiv)
som Enceladus-kollektivet behändigt nog klippte bort och viftade undan, ser att den illustrerar de inrikespolitiska motsättningarna i Bulgarien, och som president Zelensky såg sig föranlåten att apostrofera:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky let loose a verbal barrage in Sofia Thursday against Bulgarian President Rumen Radev over the latter's opposition to arming Ukraine.

“God forbid some tragedy should befall you and you should be in my place,” he said, according to a Politico translation. “And if people with shared values do not help, what will you do? You would say: Putin, please grab Bulgarian territory?”

“No, you, as a real president, I am sure you would not allow a compromise with your independence. It is your right not to support aid to Ukraine. But I would really like you to understand me correctly."

The meeting with Radev, "a former air force chief who is more sympathetic to Russia and equivocal on NATO, went even worse than expected," Politico reported. “Gathered on each side of a long wooden table, the khaki-clad Ukrainian delegation sat stony faced, occasionally grimacing and taking notes, opposite Radev’s team as the Bulgarian president explained that there was ‘no military solution’ and that more and more weapons will not solve it.”

En parallell till agerandet hos Kroatiens president, något som jag skrev om här: viewtopic.php?p=411548#p411548

[Enceladus]

Flera högt uppsatta generaler i den ryska försvarsledningen har petats. Andra syns inte till i offentligheten. Enligt rykten finns det djupt rotade konflikter:

Good question to ask here is if Shoygu / Gerassimov now completely bypassed Teplinsky (who they were in conflict with) after rumours appeared about later being in unofficial command of war (to what nearly certainly RUMOD released Gerassimov vid).

Mikail Teplinskij är väl en av få kvarvarande generaler i den ryska försvarsledningen som är kompetent, om han nu finns kvar...

Utrensningarna i den ryska försvarsledningen fortsätter:

It turns out Shoigu-Gerasimov not only fired the Commander of 106th Airborne Division Major General Vladimir Seliverstov but also the Commander of 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division Col. Alexander Kornev. The tensions between VDV/Teplinsky and Shoigu-Gerasimov are mounting

Således gör Putin en repris av Stalin.

ser att den illustrerar de inrikespolitiska motsättningarna i Bulgarien, och som president Zelensky såg sig föranlåten att apostrofera:

Gåtorna kring Prigozjin får Putin att verka svag

Helt klart är att Wagnerchefen inte har suttit stilla de senaste veckorna. Appen Flightradar24 visar att hans privatjet har rört sig mellan Rostov, Minsk, Sankt Petersburg och Moskva.

Den ryska allmänheten har svårt att veta vad den ska tro om Prigozjin. Först hyllades han i medierna.

[...]

Samtidigt ser och noterar andra auktoritära ledare världen över den ryske presidentens svaghet. I diktatorernas värld är mildhet gentemot förrädare ett värre brott än att starta ett anfallskrig.

Många kopplar exempelvis den turkiske presidenten Erdogans omsvängning västerut – med godkännande av Sveriges Natoansökan och frisläppande av ukrainska krigsfångar – till just detta.

När Erdogan själv utsattes för ett kuppförsök 2016 visade han ingen pardon.

Också Kinas Xi Jinping antas, enligt vissa analyser, vara bekymrad över att ha satsat prestige på en ”vänskap utan gränser” med en man som nu ses som en förlorare.

Allt fler auktoritära ledare ser Putin som en förlorare. Bulgariens omsvängning västerut med den nya regeringen är knappast något undantag.

Cautious optimism: What Bulgaria’s new government means for Europe

ECFR’s latest public opinion poll identified similar views among the Bulgarian public, which it found to be the weakest link of the 11 countries polled regarding condemnation of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. According to the results of the poll, only 17 per cent of respondents consider Russia to be an adversary (compared to 74 per cent in Denmark or 71 per cent in Poland), while 62 per cent consider it an ally or partner – a similar proportion was only found in Hungary (59 per cent). Bulgaria was also the only country in which a majority (51 per cent) believed that Europe should maintain a full partnership with Russia after the war.

But the new government could bring Bulgaria back into the European fold. Denkov declared that his main priorities are Bulgaria’s entry into Schengen and the eurozone and unlocking funding for the country from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility. Reforming the judiciary – a long held aim for the EU – is the first necessary step to achieve progress on all three issues, and GERB has so far stated that it is willing to support the process. Judicial reform would also help fight both corruption and Russian meddling in the country. A general change of tone of the political discourse would require further reforms to the media.

[...]

The success of the government will have consequences for the wider region, where a belt of illiberalism and nationalism is threatening to engulf other eastern and south-eastern European countries in which the rule of law is weak, including Poland, Hungary, and Serbia. The government holds promise for Europe’s efforts to support Ukraine. The new defence minister, Todor Tagarev, was quick to declare on his first day in the job that Bulgaria “must do what is necessary, both to strengthen our defence capabilities and to provide assistance to Ukraine so that it can continue the counteroffensive that has apparently begun and liberate its territories.”

Bulgariens nya regering väcker hopp. Skribentens beskrivning av situationen i Bulgarien hade alltså varit mer relevant för ett halvår sedan!

Russia Looks to Economic Redistribution to Shore Up the Regime

Exiting Russia has become more difficult with time. In August 2022, President Vladimir Putin issued a decree banning foreign investors from “unfriendly countries” (as determined by the Russian government) from selling or transferring their stakes in strategic companies operating in Russia’s financial and energy sectors, from which only he may grant exemptions. Later, in December, the government introduced a rule forcing foreign companies leaving Russia to dispose of their assets at a discount of no less than 50 percent of market value.

In March 2023, those requirements were expanded to include a compensation payment to the state, while in April, Putin authorized the expropriation of foreign-owned assets in response to the seizure and freezing of Russian assets abroad. The first firms to fall victim to the latter measure were the local subsidiaries of Finland’s Fortum and Germany’s Uniper, both energy companies, which may not have been formally nationalized but are unlikely to ever be reclaimed by their former parents.

[...]

The middle layer of Russia’s social structure will be shaped by the redistribution of assets among those well-off Russians forced to focus on the domestic market by international sanctions. In return for their loyalty, they will receive high-quality assets at a significant discount, which may turn them into a pillar of the regime and a source of patriotic optimism and even radicalism. There could even be a “people’s privatization,” in which the wealthy are awarded minority stakes in state companies.

Yale-professorn Jeffrey Sonnenfield konstaterade redan förra året att det lönar sig att lämna Ryssland så fort som möjligt. Tyska Uniper drog en nitlott.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

ser att den illustrerar de inrikespolitiska motsättningarna i Bulgarien, och som president Zelensky såg sig föranlåten att apostrofera:

Bulgariens nya regering väcker hopp. Skribentens beskrivning av situationen i Bulgarien hade alltså varit mer relevant för ett halvår sedan!

Vilken "skribent" är det som gör en "beskrivning av situationen i Bulgarien" som "hade [alltså] varit mer relevant för ett halvår sedan!" ?

Däremot kan man ju anse att det är inrikespolitiskt ohållbart i längden om regering och president befinner sig på kollisionskurs beträffande utrikespolitiken, som Kyiv Independent beskriver det: Bulgarian president blames Ukraine for war, prime minister hits back

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Enligt den ryska propagandakanalen Interfax har nu Ryssland underrättat inblandade parter att man inte avser att förnya spannmålsexportavtalet som en gång mäklades fram av banditen Erdogan. Detta enligt Putins satmara (publicum förstå säkert att det bjuder mig emot att använda ett som kvinnoföraktande uttryck, men ibland måste man) Maria Vladimirovna Zakharova: Russia officially notifies Turkey, Ukraine, UN of its objection to grain deal extension - Foreign Ministry

Maria Vladimirovna tillhör ju Putins sk. lipstick army



och det är väl såhär den gamle snuskgubben Putin skulle vilja ha det. Maria Vladimirovna har i alla fall fördelen av att klä sig anständigt, till skillnad från en annan medlem i samma armé, Margarita Simonovna Simonyan som ofta uppträder påfallande urringad - säkert även det till glädje för nyss nämnde snuskgubbe.

[Enceladus]

ser att den illustrerar de inrikespolitiska motsättningarna i Bulgarien, och som president Zelensky såg sig föranlåten att apostrofera:

Bulgariens nya regering väcker hopp. Skribentens beskrivning av situationen i Bulgarien hade alltså varit mer relevant för ett halvår sedan!

Vilken "skribent" är det som gör en "beskrivning av situationen i Bulgarien" som "hade [alltså] varit mer relevant för ett halvår sedan!" ?

Changing Places: Europeans Grow More Assertive on Ukraine as Washington Shows Caution

European nations, once seen as less steadfast in their support for Kyiv and more vulnerable to Russian pressure, are determined to help Ukraine win an unambiguous victory. At the same time, the Biden administration, which orchestrated a unified Western response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion last year, is increasingly cautious—constrained by domestic politics and a fear of direct confrontation with Moscow.

[...]

Few major European leaders have similar electoral concerns in the near term. European economies have successfully weaned themselves off dependence on Russian energy, and even the once pro-Putin nationalist parties rarely openly support Moscow nowadays. Many key European leaders who pushed for talks between Kyiv and Moscow last year, most importantly French President Emmanuel Macron, have increasingly come to the view that no deal on Ukraine can be struck until Putin is routed on the battlefield or leaves power.

“There is a growing belief in Europe that the defeat of Russia needs to be super clear, while at least in some corners of the U.S. system there might be a sense that this needs to be a defeat that generates a negotiated outcome,” said Camille Grand, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Brussels who served until last year as NATO’s assistant secretary-general. “There is this nuance.”

Så här ser den politiska situationen ut i Europa, inklusive Bulgarien och Turkiet. Nästan hela kontinenten har rört sig västerut - och sprungit om USA.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Ovanstående (tyvärr hann Enceladus-kollektivet emellan, men "ovanstående" avser alltså stoppet för ukrainsk spannmålsexport) aktualiserar i alla fall behovet av att kunna bygga ut andra transportvägar ut från Ukraina, även om detta dessvärre är ett arbete på lång sikt. Eftersom sjötransport har så mycket större kapacitet än järnvägstransport är detta förstås en formidabel uppgift. Jag skrev en bit om detta för ett drygt år sedan: viewtopic.php?p=407038#p407038

Hittills verkar Ukraina och Rumänien ha hunnit med att få till fler fungerande gränsövergångar:
Ukrainian Railways launches new service to Romania

Spårviddsskillnaden är förstås ett gissel. EU försöker adressera detta långsiktigt, vilket jag skrev om här: viewtopic.php?p=414742#p414742

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Bulgariens nya regering väcker hopp. Skribentens beskrivning av situationen i Bulgarien hade alltså varit mer relevant för ett halvår sedan!

Vilken "skribent" är det som gör en "beskrivning av situationen i Bulgarien" som "hade [alltså] varit mer relevant för ett halvår sedan!" ?

Changing Places: Europeans Grow More Assertive on Ukraine as Washington Shows Caution

European nations, once seen as less steadfast in their support for Kyiv and more vulnerable to Russian pressure, are determined to help Ukraine win an unambiguous victory. At the same time, the Biden administration, which orchestrated a unified Western response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion last year, is increasingly cautious—constrained by domestic politics and a fear of direct confrontation with Moscow.

[...]

Few major European leaders have similar electoral concerns in the near term. European economies have successfully weaned themselves off dependence on Russian energy, and even the once pro-Putin nationalist parties rarely openly support Moscow nowadays. Many key European leaders who pushed for talks between Kyiv and Moscow last year, most importantly French President Emmanuel Macron, have increasingly come to the view that no deal on Ukraine can be struck until Putin is routed on the battlefield or leaves power.

“There is a growing belief in Europe that the defeat of Russia needs to be super clear, while at least in some corners of the U.S. system there might be a sense that this needs to be a defeat that generates a negotiated outcome,” said Camille Grand, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Brussels who served until last year as NATO’s assistant secretary-general. “There is this nuance.”

Så här ser den politiska situationen ut i Europa, inklusive Bulgarien och Turkiet. Nästan hela kontinenten har rört sig västerut - och sprungit om USA.

Ja, jag fick - som väntat - inget svar på min fråga.

[Enceladus]

Putin’s Budget Math Gets Ugly as Election Looms After Mutiny

Building a larger security presence around Moscow — alongside committing more resources to the war effort — may prompt the government to increase spending by 5% relative to its current budget plan, according to Bloomberg Economics, meaning an extra 1.3 trillion rubles ($14 billion) of expenditure this year.

Another likely priority for Putin, as he looks for another six-year term in office, will be to buy off the electorate. A surge of around 12% in real wages accompanied previous election periods, Bloomberg Economics estimates, primarily as a result of pay hikes in the public sector.

[...]

Wagner didn’t come cheap before the uprising, with over $3 billion in outlays from the state budget in the past year to finance its military operations in Ukraine and pay its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s catering company for supplying food to the army.

[...]

“I wouldn’t be surprised if, especially following the mutiny, the Kremlin were aiming for an even higher percentage of votes for Putin and a record turnout in the 2024 election – but that will be very expensive to secure,” Noble said.

Redrawing the budget will be a challenge as sanctions and other restrictions imposed by the US and its allies over the invasion chip away at Russia’s earnings from energy exports. Russia is also selling foreign currency while energy revenue is below the target set in the budget.

Putin är inte odödlig. Efter Wagnergruppens uppror vill han köpa säkerhet - och röster. När faller det ryska korthuset?

Russia extends eligibility for military call-up by at least five years

Last September, Russia announced its first mobilisation since World War Two, calling up more than 300,000 former soldiers in an often-chaotic emergency draft to support its war in Ukraine, a campaign that has been much longer and more attritional than Moscow had expected, and shows no sign of ending.

It is already raising the upper age limit for men to be called up for compulsory military service to 30 from 27, and has made it much harder for young men to avoid the draft by dodging recruiters handing out call-up papers.

[...]

The new law means that those from this reserve with the highest ranks can now be called back into service up to the age of 70 rather than 65, other senior ranks up to 65, junior officers up to 60 - and all others up to the age of 55 rather than 45.

Klockan tickar, bokstavligen.

In Veiled Reaction To Russia, Iran Calls For Dialog Over Kuril Islands

Feeling betrayed by Moscow’s support for UAE’s claim on three Iranian islands, a top official in Tehran has backed Japan’s demand for talks over the Kuril Islands.

During a meeting with Japan’s ambassador to Iran Aikawa Kazutoshi, Kamal Kharrazi, the head of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations and a foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said that the best way to resolve the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia over the four islands is through “direct negotiations.”

[...]

In its Thursday edition, conservative newspaper Jomhouri Eslami wrote in a strongly worded editorial: "This is not going to be Russia's last treason against Iran." The daily added: "Foreign Ministry officials should not think that this episode will end by summoning Russia's ambassador. We need an essential revision of our political relations with Russia and forcing Russian statesmen to regret their treason against the Iranian nation."

Håller Ryssland på att förlora sin enda lojala allierade? Israel godkände tydligen inte Rysslands försäljning av stridsflygplan till Iran...

Russia's grain deal exit is a stab in the back - Kenya

"The decision by Russia to exit the Black Sea Grain Initiative is a stab on the back at global food security prices and disproportionately impacts countries in the Horn of Africa already impacted by drought," Korir Sing'Oei a minister in Kenya's foreign affairs ministry said in a tweet.

Även Afrika vänder Ryssland ryggen.

[Enceladus]

Det sägs att Putin föreslog Andrej Trosjov som ny ledare för Wagnergruppen, men som bekant togs förslaget inte väl emot, milt uttryckt.

Wagner’s second-in-command Troshev sided against Prigozhin during the coup – report

According to Russian human rights initiative Gulagu.net, high-ranking member of the Wagner Group private military company (PMC), Andrei Troshev, became the first Wagner commander to refuse to support Yevgeny Prigozhin’s June 24 mutiny.

[...]

Troshev was offered a position "within a structure linked to the Ministry of Defense" responsible for recruiting prisoners into the Storm Z regiment.

“Prigozhin saw this as a betrayal, and he, along with Utkin, instigated a series of publications via their Telegram channels to discredit their former associate.”

Earlier, CNN reported that Putin caused a "split" amongst high-ranking Wagner commanders and Prigozhin, by proposing their leadership be taken over by Troshev.

Jevgenij Prigozjin anser tydligen att han förrådes av Andrej Trosjov. Detta skulle kunna förklara Wagnerupprorets händelseförlopp.

Ukraine Claims Responsibility for Fire at Crimea Military Site

"A successful operation was carried out in occupied Crimea. The enemy hides the extent of the damage done and the number of casualties," said Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Department.

[...]

Crimea’s Russia-backed governor Sergei Aksyonov said the fire occurred in the peninsula’s Kirovsky district, around 100 kilometers from the Crimea bridge that was damaged in a seaborne drone attack Monday.

Aksyonov said more than 2,000 residents in four Crimean settlements near the military training area were being evacuated.

En närliggande motorväg som länkar samman Kertjbron med staden Sevastopol har tvingats stänga. Numera vågar Ukraina ta på sig ansvaret för attackerna.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 2023

The July 17 Kerch Strait Bridge attack is likely having immediate ramifications on Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine. Footage and imagery published on July 17 and 18 show extensive traffic jams and accidents reportedly on the E58 Mariupol-Melitopol-Kherson City highway – Russia’s current main logistics line connecting Russia to southern Ukraine – at various points between Mariupol and Berdyansk, and in Kherson Oblast.[1] Russian occupation authorities claimed to have reduced traffic at Crimea-Kherson Oblast checkpoints near Chonhar and Armiansk following significant traffic jams in the morning.[2] Russian occupation authorities also advertised alternate routes and rest stops along them for tourists to drive from occupied Crimea through occupied Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts – rear areas in a war zone – to return to Russia.[3] Russian authorities also announced additional measures to mitigate resulting traffic jams and logistics issues, including a temporary road bridge next to the Kerch Strait Bridge, the reconstruction of a 60-kilometer stretch of road between Crimea and Kherson Oblast through Armiansk, and lowering security measures at the Kerch Strait Bridge checkpoints.[4] Russian authorities reopened one span of the Kerch Strait Bridge to one-way road traffic towards Russia on July 18, and plan to reopen the same span to two-lane traffic on September 15 and the whole bridge to road traffic in November.[5] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on July 18 that the Russian government is still developing measures to increase the security of the Kerch Strait Bridge, and Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the claimed Russian security failure to adequately protect the bridge.[6]

Det kanske inte var en så bra idé att marknadsföra det ockuperade Krym som turistmål. Men vem ska få skulden: försvarsministeriet, FSB eller Rosgvardija?

[Enceladus]

Putin Will Not Attend BRICS Summit, South Africa’s President Says

President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa had said in a court affidavit made public on Tuesday that his country would risk war with Russia if it arrested Mr. Putin at the summit.

The decision for Mr. Putin not to attend was made “by mutual agreement,” according to a statement released by Mr. Ramaphosa’s office. Russia will instead be represented by its foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, the statement said.

[...]

Mr. Ramaphosa was responding to a petition by South Africa’s largest opposition political party, the Democratic Alliance, that asked a court in Pretoria, the nation’s executive capital, to force the government to arrest Mr. Putin if he attended the summit, in Johannesburg, in late August. The court is expected to hear arguments in the case on Friday.

Putin åker inte till Sydafrika. Har Rysslands diktator överspelat sin hand?

Ukraine: Good chunk of grain infrastructure damaged

Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi revealed in a statement that according to estimates, "it will take at least a year to fully restore the objects that were damaged," adding that in the Chornomorsk port alone 60,000 tons of grain were destroyed.

"The grain infrastructure of international and Ukrainian traders and carriers Kernel, Viterra, CMA CGM Group was the most affected," Solskyi said. He further underlined that this is not only a "terrorist act against Ukraine but against the whole world." The minister reiterated that should the food export fail, "the population of the poorest countries will be on the verge of survival."

En rysk attack mot en hamn i Tjornomorsk har förstört en stor del av infrastrukturen för export av spannmål. Detta vinner inga vänner i Afrika!

Det där med legitima mål har jag förklarat tidigare, och det är ju bara tomma hot från rysk sidan, i den meningen att all militär materiel och militära installationer är sådana - till skillnad från ex.vis dammar!

Is This the End of the Road for the Ukraine Grain Deal?

Since then, about 32 million tons of grain worth $8–9 billion has left Ukraine for countries including China, Spain, and Türkiye. The deal has caused global food prices to fall by 11.6 percent, according to the UN Food Price Index. For Kyiv, meanwhile, the agreement isn’t just a key source of hard currency revenues; it also frees up Ukrainian grain silos for the new harvest, preventing domestic prices from increasing.

[...]

Despite these obstacles, Russia still managed to supply 60 million tons of grain to foreign markets this agricultural year (July 2022–June 2023) and earn over $41 billion from doing so. Forecasts for the new crop and export earnings from it are no less optimistic: the country still has record grain stocks, and exporters have adapted to the restrictions. Grain is also actively being exported from the territories Russia has annexed from Ukraine.

[...]

In agreeing to the grain deal, the Kremlin underestimated how much Russia’s dependence on China and Türkiye has grown. As the main recipient of grain exported under the agreement, China even included the deal as a separate item in its peace plan for Ukraine. Moscow does not want to sour relations with a key partner that has become the largest buyer of Russian hydrocarbons and the biggest seller of sanctioned goods to the Russian market.

[...]

One key issue that is still outstanding is the safety of Ukrainian port infrastructure. One year ago—the day after the signing of the deal in Istanbul—Russia launched a missile attack on the port of Odesa. Moscow is unlikely to progress to direct attacks on grain carriers right now, but it may begin to consider Ukrainian ports legitimate targets.

Är Ukrainas infrastruktur för spannmålsexport ett "legitimt mål"? Ett tomt hot var det i alla fall inte!

Trouble in Paradise? New Disputes Cloud Russia-Turkey Relations

That alone is not enough for a comprehensive stabilization of the Turkish economy, which heavily relies on foreign investments. Turkey is in dire need of an influx of foreign capital, and the largest investors in its economy continue to be Western countries, primarily the Netherlands, the United States, and the United Kingdom, which together account for about 30 percent.

Moreover, a significant portion of Turkish exports goes to the West. Even after record growth in trade with Moscow, Russia still only accounts for 3.7 percent of Turkey’s exports, trailing far behind its Western counterparts.

[...]

In addition to the economic problems, Erdogan must also deal with municipal elections scheduled for March next year. To regain control over major cities such as Ankara and Istanbul from the opposition, he needs to attract pro-Western urban voters to his side.

Notably, after the elections, Erdogan revisited the topic of Turkey’s integration into the European Union, and even demanded an open path into the EU in exchange for Turkish approval of Sweden’s NATO membership.

Både Turkiet och Kina har betydligt större ekonomiskt utbyte med väst än med Ryssland. Det är uppenbart vilken relation som har högre prioritet...

George Clooney and John Prendergast on how the West can kill the Wagner virus

What is clear is that Wagner has been one of Russia’s most successful foreign-policy initiatives during the past decade. The group has allowed Russia to expand its influence into unstable states, particularly in Africa, advancing its economic interests, often through violent means. Wagner’s perceived instability at the moment offers America and the broader international community an unprecedented opportunity to counter Russia’s use of this atrocity- and corruption-fuelled force abroad.

[...]

There is great unfulfilled promise in going after those benefiting from Wagner’s ultra-violent plunder, from the companies owning the mines to the facilitators in neighbouring states, the Gulf and Russia. Not only would such an approach weaken a large cog in Russia’ s colonial looting machine, but it would also disincentivise African kleptocracies and the transnational networks that support them from entering into or maintaining such exploitative relationships.

Clooney och Prendergast, bägge medgrundare av The Sentry, har skrivit en artikel om vikten av att "döda Wagner-viruset" i Afrika när det är som svagast.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin and reportedly Wagner Commander Dmitry Utkin greeted Wagner fighters at the new Wagner base near Asipovichy, Belarus, on July 18.

Russian sources claimed that Wagner will continue to operate abroad in African countries, although Prigozhin’s involvement in these activities remains unclear.

[...]

The Russian State Duma adopted on July 19 a law on the first reading and “in general” that allows the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to have heavy military equipment.

Dagens ISW-sammanfattning berör en tidigare analys:

Nu kan den återstående Wagnergruppen ägna sig åt andra uppdrag än den utsiktslösa invasionen av Ukraina medan Putin behöver stärka den inre säkerheten.

Tja, man skriver som man har kapacitet till. Kan man inte komma fram till något eget så får man kopiera andras. Ovanstående spekulationer var bland det mest innehållslösa jag läst efter coronapandemin, och ett bra exempel på hur man drar förhastade slutsatser och lägger ut texten utan att ha tydliga besked om vad som har hänt. Dessutom visar det att man inte ska sitta uppe på natten och skriva.

Idag välkomnade Prigozjin och Utkin sina soldater i Belarus. Vidare antogs en lag om att Rosgvardija tillåts ha tung militär utrustning. Vilken nattlig analys!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Dagens ISW-sammanfattning berör en tidigare analys:

Nu kan den återstående Wagnergruppen ägna sig åt andra uppdrag än den utsiktslösa invasionen av Ukraina medan Putin behöver stärka den inre säkerheten.

Tja, man skriver som man har kapacitet till. Kan man inte komma fram till något eget så får man kopiera andras. Ovanstående spekulationer var bland det mest innehållslösa jag läst efter coronapandemin, och ett bra exempel på hur man drar förhastade slutsatser och lägger ut texten utan att ha tydliga besked om vad som har hänt. Dessutom visar det att man inte ska sitta uppe på natten och skriva.

Idag välkomnade Prigozjin och Utkin sina soldater i Belarus. Vidare antogs en lag om att Rosgvardija tillåts ha tung militär utrustning. Vilken nattlig analys!

Jag tror nog att de flesta, i förekommande fall, är mer intresserade av att läsa originalinläggen än Enceladus-kollektivets sönderklippta citatförfalskningar: viewtopic.php?p=414389#p414389