Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

[Enceladus]

Russia's rouble tumbles past 89 vs dollar to over 15-month low

The Russian rouble tumbled past 89 against the dollar for the first time in more than 15 months on Friday, weighed down by domestic political risk concerns after an aborted armed mutiny over the weekend, and lacking any support drivers.

[...]

"The rouble continues to crumble," Alor Broker said in a note. "It lost another 1.4% in value yesterday, despite stabilising oil. The target for the dollar-rouble pair of 90 is approaching and is likely to be reached."

Capital controls have helped insulate the rouble against geopolitics in the 16 months since Russia invaded Ukraine, but mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's aborted weekend march toward Moscow reverberated through markets and raised questions about President Vladimir Putin's grip on power.

Har Rysslands centralbank kastat in handduken?

Oil settles higher but posts fourth straight quarterly decline

Benchmark Brent crude futures for August delivery which expires on Friday, settled up 56 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.90. In the three months to the end of June, the contract finished down 6%.

[...]

"Despite the announcements of two fresh rounds of cuts from OPEC+/Saudi Arabia, crude prices have largely remained below $80 a barrel as the market has been driven less by fundamentals and more by macroeconomic concerns," HSBC analysts said in a note.

"We think this will continue to be the case for part of the summer, although the deep deficit of around 2.3 million barrels forecast for 2H23 should help to spur some upwards price momentum."

Flera medlemsländer i oljekartellen Opec-plus, inte minst Ryssland, fuskar med sina kvoter. Men som synes faller den ryska valutan ändå...

EU leaders push to fund Ukraine with proceeds from Russia's frozen assets

European Union leaders will push senior officials on Thursday to find legal ways to funnel proceeds from billions of dollars of frozen Russian assets into projects helping rebuild Ukraine, papers showed.

The bloc has said it froze more than 200 billion euros ($218.2 billion) of Russian central bank assets in reaction to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February last year. Another 30 billion euros of Russian oligarchs' private assets were also immobilised.

[...]

The sums are substantial. Belgium's Euroclear, which settles transactions and safeguards assets, said blocked coupon payments and redemptions boosted its balance sheet by 88 billion euros year-on-year by the end of March to 140 billion euros.

Samtidigt planerar EU att ge de frysta pengarna från Rysslands centralbank till Ukraina.

Dessutom behöver Ukraina belägra den ockuperade halvön - så länge Putin inte vill förhandla.

CIA director, on secret trip to Ukraine, hears plan for war’s endgame

Publicly, Ukrainian officials have expressed frustration with critics of the pace at which the counteroffensive has played out thus far. But in private, military planners in Kyiv have relayed to Burns and others bullish confidence in their aim to retake substantial territory by the fall; move artillery and missile systems near the boundary line of Russian-controlled Crimea; push further into eastern Ukraine; and then open negotiations with Moscow for the first time since peace talks broke down in March of last year, according to three people familiar with the planning.

[...]

In an ideal scenario favored by Kyiv, Ukraine’s military would gain leverage over Russia by advancing troops and powerful weapons to the edge of Ukraine’s boundary with Crimea — holding hostage the peninsula that is home to Russia’s prized Black Sea Fleet.

[...]

In agreeing not to take Crimea by force, Kyiv would then demand that Russia accept whatever security guarantees Ukraine can secure from the West, said Ukrainian officials.

Ukraina hoppas att en belägringen av den ockuperade halvön kan få Putin att förhandla.

[Enceladus]

Det verkar som att Putins propagandakloak har börjat ta bort obekväma artiklar från sitt arkiv:

Criminal case opened against Wagner head amid threat of escalating confrontation — FSB

Sergey Surovikin calls on Wagner PMC to resolve problems peacefully, not to aid enemy

Skribenten behöver emellertid inte oroa sig för att ha skickat trasiga länkar igen - de fungerade tidigare. Någon som borde oroa sig är general Surovikin...

He Stopped Prigozhin’s Mutiny: What’s Next for Belarus’s Chief Negotiator Lukashenko?

The Kremlin, meanwhile, is not so much grateful to Lukashenko as it is resentful, due to the nature of the agreement. It’s advantageous for the Belarusian leader to present the arrangements between Prigozhin and the Kremlin as a critical deal between two powerful adversaries that only a skilled negotiator could have secured. But for the Kremlin, this take on events is unacceptable, because the very idea of a mediator appears to put Prigozhin on an equal footing with Putin.

For Moscow, Prigozhin is not an adversary, but a traitor. There can be no question of entering into a deal with such a person. It was at most an honorable surrender on the Wagner boss’s part—and may not remain honorable for long.

Putin has repeatedly and publicly accused Prigozhin of treason, and his feelings about perceived traitors have long been known. The president’s casual attitude to rules and agreements is no less well known. The armed insurrection criminal case against Wagner may have been dropped, but no promises were made not to open another case: on suspicion of embezzling state funds, for example.

Den som kontrollerar det förflutna kontrollerar framtiden. Den som kontrollerar nutiden, kontrollerar det förflutna. Nu skapas ett nytt narrativ.

UK to breach Iran nuclear deal with refusal to lift sanctions

The justification cited by EU and British diplomats included Iran’s own breach of the accord, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran’s sale of drones to Russia for use in its invasion of Ukraine, and the possible future transfers to Russia of Iran’s ballistic missiles.

[...]

The 2015 nuclear deal included a series of dates or so-called sunset clauses by which certain sanctions on entities are due to be lifted by the west, but it had not been envisaged back in 2015 that the agreement would be so widely breached. The deal capped enrichment at 3.67% but Iran has been enriching at 60%.

[...]

The future of the agreement is in flux after talks in Oman between the US and Iran that focused on Iran agreeing not to enrich uranium beyond 60% in return for the west releasing billions in frozen funds, as well as some US prisoners held in Tehran.

[...]

“Any such deal, formal or informal, would be a calamity for the Iranian people,” [Mike Pompeo] said, adding: “The despots in Tehran would ensure sanctions relief would not go to the Iranian people, but to making more drones for Russia to use against the people of Ukraine.”

Europa funderar på att hoppa av Iranavtalet - flera år efter att USA och Iran har gjort det. Frågan är om ett informellt avtal kan upprätthållas bättre.

Så praktiskt då. Då kan man ju vifta undan när man ställer till problem för andra.

Musk's Twitter rate limits could undermine new CEO, ad experts say

Musk announced Saturday that Twitter would limit how many tweets per day various accounts can read, to discourage "extreme levels" of data scraping and system manipulation.

Users posted screenshots in reply, showing they were unable to see any tweets, including tweets on the pages of corporate advertisers, after hitting the limit.

Twitter-spärren påverkar i allra högsta grad krigsrapporteringen. I det läget är det ansvarsfullt att länka till välrenommerade speglar istället för originalet.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Så praktiskt då. Då kan man ju vifta undan när man ställer till problem för andra.

Musk's Twitter rate limits could undermine new CEO, ad experts say

Musk announced Saturday that Twitter would limit how many tweets per day various accounts can read, to discourage "extreme levels" of data scraping and system manipulation.

Users posted screenshots in reply, showing they were unable to see any tweets, including tweets on the pages of corporate advertisers, after hitting the limit.

Twitter-spärren påverkar i allra högsta grad krigsrapporteringen. I det läget är det ansvarsfullt att länka till välrenommerade speglar istället för originalet.

Det är överhuvud taget inte ansvarsfullt att referera till uppgifter i twitterkloaken. För en gångs skull har Musk gjort någonting nyttigt, även om han inte fattar det själv.

[Fyrgeit]

Nu har denna tråden nått 2000 inlägg. Man undrar ju om det här egentligen är ett spårvagnsforum

[Enceladus]

Russia Returns $111M Seized During Police Raids to Prigozhin

Russian authorities have returned 10 billion rubles ($111.2 million) to exiled Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin which they had seized in police raids during his aborted rebellion last month.

[...]

According to Fontanka, police returned the cash and gold — estimated to weigh “a couple of tons” — to Prigozhin’s driver while Prigozhin himself attended a closed meeting in Moscow on Sunday.

Prigozjin får tillbaka pengarna, men Surovikin saknas fortfarande.

Russian rouble tumbles past 90 to over 15-month low vs dollar

The Russian rouble tumbled to a more than 15-month low past 90 against the dollar on Wednesday, with demand for foreign currency outweighing supply and as last month’s domestic political turmoil weighs on risk appetite.

By 0933 GMT, the rouble was 1.5% weaker against the dollar at 90.54, its weakest point since late March 2022.

[...]

Analysts polled by Reuters last week expect the Bank of Russia to raise interest rates in July and again later in the year as inflationary pressure intensifies, and see limited room for the rouble to strengthen in the coming 12 months.

Föga förvånande fortsätter rubeln att falla. Reuters har även en färsk artikel med titeln "Russia planning 10% spending cut for 2024 budget redistribution".

Russian oil and gas budget revenues almost halved in January - June

The Russian budget's oil and gas revenues fell by 47% to 3.38 trillion roubles ($37.4 billion) in the first half of the year from the same period in 2022, finance ministry data showed on Wednesday, as tax returns fell because of lower prices and sales volumes.

[...]

Russia's budget deficit hit $42 billion for the first five months of the year, already 17% above the plan for the whole of 2023.

Intäkterna kollapsar. Ändå säger Putin att ekonomin "går bättre än väntat". Är det inte hög tid att lämna bunkern och möta verkligheten?

Iran dras inför ICJ efter flygkraschen

Sverige, Ukraina, Kanada och Storbritannien tar Iran till den Internationella domstolen (ICJ) i Haag. Länderna hoppas tilldömas skadestånd till anhöriga till passagerarna som omkom när det ukrainska planet PS752 sköts ned i Iran 2020, meddelar domstolen.

Teheran har tidigare erbjudit viss ekonomisk ersättning till offrens anhöriga, men rättsliga processer och omfattande skadeståndskrav har förblivit olösta.

Vad har Iran för luftförsvar egentligen? Denna händelse påminner en hel del om de ryska rebellerna i Donbas...

[Diripsi]

Nu har denna tråden nått 2000 inlägg. Man undrar ju om det här egentligen är ett spårvagnsforum

Det här är inte ett forum specifikt för spårvagnar. Speciellt inte detta underforum.

[Lennart Petersen]

Nu har denna tråden nått 2000 inlägg. Man undrar ju om det här egentligen är ett spårvagnsforum

Det här är ju ett delforum som mam lätt kan undvika. Rubriken är ju ”ordet är fritg” och det är väl meningen att man ska kunna diskutera lite av varje.
Just genom att ha ett separat forum slipper man ju förhoppningsvis o.t tjafs i övriga delforum som ju kan handla om spårvägar.
Fäljer man bara forumrubrikerna så blir nog allt bra !

[Enceladus]

Tannehill har gjort en ny utläggning på Twitter, denna gång om ammunition. På grund av de tillfälliga problemen på Twitter klistrar jag in hela tråden här:

Short thread on something I'm seeing in Ukraine: Russian ammunition dumps / depots within HIMARS/GMLRS/arty/drone range have been blowing up again lately. I have a theory why. This one was in Makiivka.

We're seeing dumps go up along the southern front and in Luhansk as well. They appear to be much closer to the front than in the past year.

Remember: after Ukraine got HIMARS, they focused on targeting Russian ammunition centers, to great effect. The Russian response was to pull their ammunition centers backwards out of range of the GMLRs missiles.

This made supplying troops near the front harder and slower because the round trip was longer, and there's a limit on vehicles capable of transporting it in quantity. Which brings us to the second part: why did Russia move them forward again, only to see them get blown up?

Well, my working theory is that it is because Ukraine changed its tactics during the offensive to exploit these long round trips. Which is another short discussion.

Multiple sources in the past few weeks have described new-ish Ukrainian tactics for how to advance during their offensive, especially after the Zerg rush near Mala Tokmachka went horribly wrong.

The basics of the tactic are:

a. Advance to contact
b. Press hard enough that Russian artillery opens up
c. Rely on Russian arty doctrine to fire everything
d. Pull back / hunker down from arty
e. Use your own artillery for counter battery fire
f. Wait until Russians are low on ammunition to press forward again
g. Use armor / IFVs for longer range fire support before clearing trenches with infantry

Ukraine knows that they have a window of opportunity while adversary artillery is either in a duel, or waiting on re-supply.

The Russian response may have been to start surreptitiously bringing smaller ammunition dumps closer to the front again to reduce round trip distance.

Problem for Russia is Ukrainian ISR and C3I has only gotten better since last summer. So, these dumps are not only within GMLRs and artillery range, we're seeing drones hitting some of them in Luhansk too (per the CNN video).

This follows the move / counter-move pattern we're seen throughout the war at the tactical scale.

It also may show Ukraine's use of the Russian doctrine of "reflexive control". https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/trecms/pdf/AD1157096.pdf

Basically, Ukraine knows that Russian defense doctrine relies on mines and heavy artillery barrages for defense. So, they're exploiting a known behavior to get the response they want (exhausting local ammo stores, exposing arty position to counter-battery fires)

Kort sagt, Ukraina strävar efter att få ett artilleriövertag medelst systematisk motbatteribeskjutning. Mycket tyder på att taktiken är framgångsrik:

Summer Offensive Equipment Losses: Russia Has Lost 45% More

Russia lost four times more artillery pieces than Ukraine during June. Ukraine lost 10 units; Russia lost 46.

[...]

Due to strong Russian preparations, including four lines of defense and fortification along the southern front, and Russia’s pronounced air superiority, Ukraine’s offensive has opted for cautious, smaller-scale advances by units in limited sizes, e.g., often under battalion.

These are designed to flush out and reveal Russian defensive positions, particularly artillery and troop concentrations. Those are then hit with counter-battery strikes by Ukrainian artillery and missiles.

Av de visuellt bekräftade förlusterna att döma har Ukrainas taktik gett resultat, men det dröjer förstås innan fronten kollapsar.

Access Needed To Confirm No Explosives At Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: IAEA

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Wednesday called for additional access to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine to "confirm the absence of mines or explosives at the site".

[...]

"With military tension and activities increasing in the region where this major nuclear power plant is located, our experts must be able to verify the facts on the ground," IAEA head Rafael Grossi said in a statement.

The IAEA experts' "independent and objective reporting would help clarify the current situation... which is crucial at a time like this with unconfirmed allegations and counter allegations", he said.

Anar Ryssland att det bara är en tidsfråga innan fronten kollapsar? I så fall kan ryssarna vilja använda den så kallade brända jordens taktik.

Notera även gårdagens oroväckande ISW-sammanfattning:

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi stated on July 5 that IAEA experts at the ZNPP have requested access to nuclear reactors no. 3 and 4 and other areas at the ZNPP following Ukrainian statements that Russian forces placed explosives on the reactors’ outer roofs.[23] Grossi’s statement on the importance of accessing certain areas of the ZNPP — along with consistent prior statements to the same effect — indicates that Russian authorities are denying the IAEA contingent access to various critical areas at the ZNPP and are unlikely to allow access in the future.[24] Russian authorities may refuse access to reactors no 3. and 4 to prevent the IAEA from investigating the Ukrainian reports on these reactors. Satellite imagery published on July 5 shows unknown objects on the roofs of one of the ZNPP reactor containment units, reportedly reactor no. 4, placed there after July 3.[25] Though the exact nature of these objects is unknown, their presence on the reactor containment unit roof, recent Ukrainian reports, and significant alarm over the ZNPP underscore the importance of Russia’s refusal to give the IAEA access to critical ZNPP areas to investigate possible threats to the plant.

[Enceladus]

Fler än jag tror att att allt detta var maskirovka:

Tre armétoppar försvunna efter myteriförsöket

General Surovikin, vice försvarsminister Jevkurov och Wagnerledaren Prigozjin är försvunna efter midsommarhelgens myteriförsök.

[...]

Misstankarna späs på av att Surovikin anses ha stått Prigozjin nära. Men Käihkö betonar att det huvudsakligen är de amerikanska underrättelsetjänsterna som lyfter fram den här teorin. En orsak kan vara att de vill peka fingret mot Surovikin.

– De anser att han är en begåvad officer och om de lyckas få bort honom kan det tjäna ukrainska intressen. Man ska inte tänka att de amerikanska underrättelsetjänsterna är neutrala aktörer. Om de kan utnyttja situationen – så varför inte?

Kan Putin ha fallit för amerikansk maskirovka? Samtidigt uppges Prigozjin flyga runt i Ryssland som om inget hade hänt.

Russia’s Ruble drops below landmark rate against euro

The ruble reached more than 102 to the euro during morning trade, according to exchange data, making it 3 rubles lower than at the close of trade on the previous day.

The Russian currency has also weakened against the dollar, trading at close to 94 rubles to the greenback. Rates against the euro and the dollar are at their lowest since March 2022.

[...]

“We have seen that when the ruble rate weakens, various conspiracy theories appear suggesting that it is done on purpose to increase budget revenues. It is in fact the dynamics of foreign trade that largely determine the exchange rate,” Nabiullina told a financial congress in St. Petersburg.

Det är ingen konspirationsteori att Rysslands ekonomi går åt skogen.

Kyrylo Budanov: Russia trying to kill me is like a medal for my work

Despite a reputation for opacity, Budanov was specific in his description of the Russian report, accessed by his agency after the mutiny last month. He said that the MVD — responsible for law enforcement across Russia — was using new-generation spyware technology that allows it to monitor individual secure messaging apps, social and regional media trends and online sentiment. Over the key days of the mutiny, on June 24 and 25, the Russian ministry had assessed that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, had popular support in 17 of Russia’s 46 regions, while Putin could count on the loyalty of 21. The remaining regions had approximate parity.

[...]

The GUR’s analysis of the MVD surveillance study suggested that in the middle of the crisis Putin could rely on Moscow’s loyalty, but not that of St Petersburg, his home town; also, that among the Russian Federation’s republics, support for Putin ranked lowest in Dagestan, where Prigozhin enjoyed a 97 per cent support rating.

[...]

Budanov — characterised by one US intelligence official as “George Smiley meets Jason Bourne”, and indicted in absentia by the Lefortovsky District Court in Moscow for “organising terrorist attacks” in April this year — refused to confirm or deny the GUR’s responsibility in any of those operations, although he freely admitted to directing unspecified assassinations.

[...]

Previously such strident words, and Budanov’s unswerving belief that only the strategic defeat of Russia and the return of all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, can bring lasting peace, have sometimes unnerved Nato members, concerned at antagonising a nuclear superpower. The GUR’s sabotage missions inside Russia have caused similar concerns, and Budanov’s conviction now of the enemy’s vulnerability to civil war in the aftermath of the Wagner mutiny, combined with previous statements he has made over his wish to initiate the collapse of Russia, are unlikely to reassure the fearful.

Budanov tycks vara den person som ryska militärbloggare avskyr mest - snarare än Zelenskyj eller Zaluzjnyj. Det är alltid intressant att höra hans tankar.

Intensiva förhandlingar?

Jajamänsan:

Zelenskyj väntas pressa Erdogan om Sverige

Ukrainas president Volodymyr Zelenskyj ska på fredagen resa till Istanbul där han ska ha ett möte med den turkiske presidenten Recep Tayyip Erdogan, uppger Erdogans stab i ett uttalande.

AFP skriver att mötet främst kommer handla om avtalet om spannmålsexporter på Svarta havet, men att även den svenska Natoansökan väntas stå på dagordningen.

Sverige - hemlandet för bland annat Saab, Bofors och Hägglunds - har många sätt att återgälda sig!

Frågan är egentligen var Bulgarien har sina sympatier, eftersom de gått under den sk. radarn på ett helt annat sätt än Ungern/Orbanistan.

På tal om Bulgariens sympatier:

Ukraine Nears Nuclear Deal With Bulgaria in Fresh Blow for Russian Influence

Bulgaria is nearing an agreement to sell two Russian-made nuclear reactors and other critical equipment to Ukraine’s state-owned atomic energy company as Europe moves to roll back Moscow’s hold on the continent’s power supplies.

Under the deal, which is still being negotiated, Sofia’s state power company NEK would sell Ukrainian state nuclear company Energoatom equipment from the unfinished Belene Nuclear Power Plant for at least 600 million euros, or around $650 million, officials and others familiar with the situation said.

[...]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Sofia on Thursday for his first visit to Bulgaria since Russia’s invasion, with discussions including the potential deal, officials said.

[...]

“The deal shows how Russia’s energy influence in Europe is diminishing fast,” said Martin Vladimirov, director of the energy and climate program at the Center for the Study of Democracy, a Sofia-based think tank. The deal is also “part of a larger Western strategy to bring the Ukrainian energy market into the European orbit,” he said.

Bulgarien verkar vara på väg att sälja två rysktillverkade reaktorer till Ukraina. Hädanefter är det västerländsk teknologi som gäller!

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Intensiva förhandlingar?

Jajamänsan:

Zelenskyj väntas pressa Erdogan om Sverige

Ukrainas president Volodymyr Zelenskyj ska på fredagen resa till Istanbul där han ska ha ett möte med den turkiske presidenten Recep Tayyip Erdogan, uppger Erdogans stab i ett uttalande.

AFP skriver att mötet främst kommer handla om avtalet om spannmålsexporter på Svarta havet, men att även den svenska Natoansökan väntas stå på dagordningen.

Sverige - hemlandet för bland annat Saab, Bofors och Hägglunds - har många sätt att återgälda sig!

Tja, vem vet. Mycket rykten nu. Det är en viss skillnad på rykten och fakta.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

På tal om Bulgariens sympatier:

Ukraine Nears Nuclear Deal With Bulgaria in Fresh Blow for Russian Influence

Bulgaria is nearing an agreement to sell two Russian-made nuclear reactors and other critical equipment to Ukraine’s state-owned atomic energy company as Europe moves to roll back Moscow’s hold on the continent’s power supplies.

Under the deal, which is still being negotiated, Sofia’s state power company NEK would sell Ukrainian state nuclear company Energoatom equipment from the unfinished Belene Nuclear Power Plant for at least 600 million euros, or around $650 million, officials and others familiar with the situation said.

[...]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Sofia on Thursday for his first visit to Bulgaria since Russia’s invasion, with discussions including the potential deal, officials said.

[...]

“The deal shows how Russia’s energy influence in Europe is diminishing fast,” said Martin Vladimirov, director of the energy and climate program at the Center for the Study of Democracy, a Sofia-based think tank. The deal is also “part of a larger Western strategy to bring the Ukrainian energy market into the European orbit,” he said.

Bulgarien verkar vara på väg att sälja två rysktillverkade reaktorer till Ukraina. Hädanefter är det västerländsk teknologi som gäller!

Så kan det gå om man försöker göra affärer med Rosatom. Fast Belene-projektet gick åt pipsvängen för längre sedan, och Bulgarien fick betala ryssarna en vacker slant, 620 milj. EUR: Bulgaria abandons Belene, announces new reactors at Kozloduy

Det är väl de pengarna man, åtminstone till en viss del försöker återvinna nu, genom att sälja av delar från det nedlagda projektet till Ukraina, och några ryska alternativ finns ju inte på bordet längre, särskilt inte efter den betan. Det är väl bara Orbanistan som vågar sig på sådant
Hungary and Russia amend Paks II nuclear project agreement

Nu tror man tydligen på NuScales småreaktorer istället: viewtopic.php?p=413149#p413149

Frågan är vad finnarna får slanta upp: Tvistenämnd: Olagligt av Fennovoima att säga upp miljardkontraktet med Rosatom

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

På tal om Bulgariens sympatier:

Ukraine Nears Nuclear Deal With Bulgaria in Fresh Blow for Russian Influence

Bulgaria is nearing an agreement to sell two Russian-made nuclear reactors and other critical equipment to Ukraine’s state-owned atomic energy company as Europe moves to roll back Moscow’s hold on the continent’s power supplies.

Under the deal, which is still being negotiated, Sofia’s state power company NEK would sell Ukrainian state nuclear company Energoatom equipment from the unfinished Belene Nuclear Power Plant for at least 600 million euros, or around $650 million, officials and others familiar with the situation said.

[...]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Sofia on Thursday for his first visit to Bulgaria since Russia’s invasion, with discussions including the potential deal, officials said.

Ja, stämningen var visst inte helt hjärtlig, om man säger så: Zelensky Blasts Bulgarian President Over Opposition To Arming Kyiv

[Enceladus]

The Decline of Sergey Lavrov

Lavrov is the stoic face of a neutered Russia diplomatic service, which, since Putin's rise to power, has slowly seen policy for the most important and rewarding briefs awarded to the president's inner circle; the "siloviki" military and security men who encouraged Putin's drift to the belligerency that has set Moscow on a collision path with the West.

A trusted pair of hands, Lavrov has always been outside Putin's inner circle. Still, Russia's longest-serving foreign minister since the fall of the Soviet Union has enjoyed the trappings of life among the country's new nobility, as have his jet-setting wife, daughter, alleged mistress and her daughter.

[...]

The president still values Lavrov's "capability and continuity" and "hates the idea of any major reshuffles at the top of his system," Galeotti said. "And probably even more so now."

"This is one of the main reasons for the increasingly gerontocratic nature of the Russian system; Putin doesn't want to have to break in a new man."

Lavrov är 73 år gammal. Han måste vara en av världens äldsta utrikesministrar. Hela Ryssland verkar styras av gamlingar...

Is Prigozhin’s Mutiny the Nail in the Coffin for Putin’s Golden Boy, Dyumin?

It was widely reported that the Tula governor, who has known Prigozhin for years, got him to the negotiating table by urging him to “bring his men to heel.” Dyumin’s authority to lead the subsequent talks was interpreted as him having the trust of the president, while Prigozhin’s ultimate defeat was seen as evidence of Dyumin’s success and imminent promotion. The Kremlin has declined to comment on Dyumin’s role, and the governor himself has remained silent. All his spokesperson has said is that being a mediator in this way would “not be within his remit” as the head of a Russian region.

[...]

By demanding Shoigu’s resignation, the Wagner rebels have actually halted the campaign to install Dyumin as defense minister. It’s well known that Putin doesn’t like taking decisions under pressure, so Shoigu is now effectively immune from removal as a result of the uprising. He is even doubly immune, since Putin said publicly that he has no complaints about the performance of the Russian military.

[...]

Putin’s unwillingness to put pressure on powerful groups in his circle reduces Dyumin’s chances of landing a federal-level position. And since new names emerge regularly, he has likely also dropped down the ranking of the president’s most trusted individuals during his years as Tula region governor.

Kan Wagnergruppens uppror ironiskt nog fördröja den föryngring som Ryssland så desperat behöver?

Column: Europe’s gas storage is filling too fast

Europe’s gas storage is filling more slowly after prices fell sharply in the first half of the year, but a further slowdown will be needed to prevent space running out before the start of winter 2023/24.

[...]

Even so, because inventories were so high at the end of winter 2022/23, storage sites were already almost 79% full on July 4, compared with a prior 10-year average fill of just 60%.

Ryssland har definitivt förlorat energikriget - för gott.

EU strikes tentative deal to boost local ammo production

The agreement — formally dubbed the Act in Support of Ammunition Production, or ASAP — will earmark €500 million to help EU-based manufacturers expand their production capacity for both ammunition and missiles.

The move is the final stage of a three-part plan to get Ukraine 1 million ammo rounds within a year and also ensure Europe’s own stockpiles don’t run dry.

Tiden är helt klart på Ukrainas sida.

6 Killed in Blast at Explosives Factory in Central Russia – State Media

At least six people were killed and two others were injured in a blast at an explosives factory in the Samara region of central Russia, state news agencies reported Friday.

[...]

The Promsintez plant is a manufacturer of industrial explosives and chemicals that specializes in ammonal, nitric acid, technical sulfuric acid, explosive cartridge detonators and other products.

Friday’s deadly blast is just one of several to have recently taken place at Russian explosives factories.

Ryssland har ingen chans att vinna en kapplöpning med merparten av världsekonomin...

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

The Decline of Sergey Lavrov

Lavrov is the stoic face of a neutered Russia diplomatic service, which, since Putin's rise to power, has slowly seen policy for the most important and rewarding briefs awarded to the president's inner circle; the "siloviki" military and security men who encouraged Putin's drift to the belligerency that has set Moscow on a collision path with the West.

A trusted pair of hands, Lavrov has always been outside Putin's inner circle. Still, Russia's longest-serving foreign minister since the fall of the Soviet Union has enjoyed the trappings of life among the country's new nobility, as have his jet-setting wife, daughter, alleged mistress and her daughter.

[...]

The president still values Lavrov's "capability and continuity" and "hates the idea of any major reshuffles at the top of his system," Galeotti said. "And probably even more so now."

"This is one of the main reasons for the increasingly gerontocratic nature of the Russian system; Putin doesn't want to have to break in a new man."

Lavrov är 73 år gammal. Han måste vara en av världens äldsta utrikesministrar. Hela Ryssland verkar styras av gamlingar...

Ja, oss gamlingar är det inte så lätt att bli av med

Fast det var värre under sovjettiden och Brezjnev (f. 1906):

Också Brezjnev själv stärkte sin interna position inom politbyrån genom att ge de politiker och ministrar som var lojala mot honom sina ämbeten på livstid, vilket resulterade i att hela den sovjetiska statsmakten kom att bestå av äldre och med åren allt mer konservativa män.

Detta försvårade på längre sikt genomförandet av förändringar och reformer i det sovjetiska samhället och blev en av de bidragande orsakerna till att den sovjetiska ekonomin stagnerade under 1970- och 80-talet. Den försämrade ekonomiska situationen ledde också till att korruptionen, som tagit fart redan under Chrusjtjovs tid, bredde ut sig i allt större skala i hela östblocket.

Skillnaden mellan då och nu är förstås att då fanns i alla fall kommunistpartiet som en fast organisatorisk grund, och där någon form av "reglerad befordringsgång" existerade. Efter Brezjnev kom Andropov (f. 1914), som de facto styrde under Brezjnevs sista år i livet, och därefter Tjernenko (f. 1911). Sedan var gamlingarna slut och man var tvungen att ta Gorbatjov (f. 1931), och sedan vet vi hur det gick.

Idag finns inget liknande, hela den ryska statsapparaten är en utlöpare av Putins vilja, på ett sätt som liknar hur Hitler styrde Nazitysktland. Frågan är om det finns några som Putin litar på överhuvud taget, ens dessa "siloviki". Sergej Jevgeijevitj Narysjkin kunde han i alla fall behandla som en småpojke, när det passade hans syften: viewtopic.php?p=404463#p404463

Även Hitler uppvisade liknande beteenden, och framför allt tolererade han inga maktcentra vid sidan av, utan de som fanns fick alltid konkurrera om hans gunst.

Stalin, däremot hade för avsikt att använda partiapparaten för att "förnya" partiets ledning, eftersom han - som en annan gangsterchef - hade för avsikt att skjuta av hela politbyrån (eftersom de visste för mycket) och ersätta medlemmarna med yngre partimedlemmar, som han sedan kunde forma i stalinistiskt tänkesätt. Så kan inte Putin göra, eftersom varje sådan "ny man" är ett direkt hot mot hans maktställning.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

NBC rapporterar om informella diplomatiska kontakter mellan USA och Ryssland: Former U.S. officials have held secret Ukraine talks with prominent Russians

Det har naturligtvis inte skett bakom Bidens rygg, som Aftonbladet påstår Hemlig amerikansk diplomatgrupp i möten med Lavrov – bakom Bidens rygg

I artikeln nämns följande läsvärda artikel: The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine (Foreign Affairs)

[Enceladus]

NBC rapporterar om informella diplomatiska kontakter mellan USA och Ryssland:

Den politiska kommentatorn Bill Kristol ger en koncis sammanfattning av dessa kontakter:

What do these former U.S. officials have in common? They didn't get jobs in the Biden Administration, they're not particularly well-disposed to the Biden Administration, and they're not very well thought of by senior officials in the Biden Administration.

Samma sak gäller kanske Lavrov? Rysslands tidigare utrikesminister går ännu längre:

Through confidential talks, the Kremlin uses the vanity of some US influencers to influence the US think tanks, and government and LOL on them.

Själva artikeln är så motsägelsefull att den knappast behöver kommenteras:

Putin seems to believe that time is on his side, calculating that he can ride out economic sanctions, which have failed to strangle the Russian economy, and maintain popular support for the war, an operation that, according to polls from the Levada Center, more than 70 percent of Russians still back. Putin doubts the staying power of Ukraine and its Western supporters, expecting that their resolve will wane. And he surely calculates that as his new conscripts enter the fight, Russia should be able to expand its territorial gains, allowing him to declare that he has substantially expanded Russia’s borders when the fighting stops.

Författarna förklarar ju själva varför det är lönlöst med förhandlingar. Putin tror nämligen att han inte kan förlora, ungefär som när Hitler anföll Stalingrad.

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Den politiska kommentatorn Bill Kristol ger en koncis sammanfattning av dessa kontakter:

What do these former U.S. officials have in common? They didn't get jobs in the Biden Administration, they're not particularly well-disposed to the Biden Administration, and they're not very well thought of by senior officials in the Biden Administration.

Själva artikeln är så motsägelsefull att den knappast behöver kommenteras:

Putin seems to believe that time is on his side, calculating that he can ride out economic sanctions, which have failed to strangle the Russian economy, and maintain popular support for the war, an operation that, according to polls from the Levada Center, more than 70 percent of Russians still back. Putin doubts the staying power of Ukraine and its Western supporters, expecting that their resolve will wane. And he surely calculates that as his new conscripts enter the fight, Russia should be able to expand its territorial gains, allowing him to declare that he has substantially expanded Russia’s borders when the fighting stops.

Författarna förklarar ju själva varför det är lönlöst med förhandlingar. Putin tror nämligen att han inte kan förlora, ungefär som när Hitler anföll Stalingrad.

Enceladus-kollektivet förfaller som väntat till twitterkloaken och återger rena personangrepp från denne William "Bill" Kristol, chef för den republikanska högersajten Defending Democracy Together: https://www.defendingdemocracytogether.org/about-us/
Till deras fördel ska väl ändå sägas att de inte verkar gilla Trump: https://rvat.org/#homePageStories (men det finns ju de republikaner som är värre)

Nä, naturligtvis inte - om man vill se världen i svart-vitt. Och då låter man förstås bli att kommentera - det är bara så enkelt som så.

Verkligheten är tyvärr motsägelsefull, men alla klarar inte av det. Då får man ta till twitter-kloaken istället. Fast egentligen återgav jag inte denna referens för att få höra Enceladus-kollektivets ryggmärgsreaktioner, utan tanken att det skulle finnas någon annan bland publicum som hade intresse av att läsa den. Av antalet visningar av denna tråd verkar det finnas något fler än kollektivet och jag som besöker den, nämligen.

Är det något twitter-kloaken inte inbjuder till så är det eftertanke, analys och diskussion - fastmer till självbelåtna one-liners. Och det är väl så Musk vill ha det!

[Enceladus]

Turkey Returns Prisoners to Ukraine, Angering Kremlin

Peskov said the decision to repatriate the Azov leaders showed that Turkey was under pressure to show its solidarity with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, of which it is a member, before its coming summit.

[...]

“Without a doubt, Ukraine deserves to be in NATO,” Erdogan said during a joint news conference with Zelensky.

Erdogan has positioned Turkey as an intermediary between Russia, Ukraine and the West, brokering some of the only diplomatic breakthroughs of the entire war including a deal to reopen Ukraine’s Black Sea ports for grain exports as well as prisoner exchanges.

Erdogan säger att Ukraina förtjänar att bli medlem i Nato samtidigt som Turkiet skickar hem fem ukrainska befälhavare som ledde försvaret av ockuperade Mariupol. Dessutom får Ukraina det turkiska självgående artillerisystemet T-155 Fırtına. Har Erdogan äntligen valt sida?

Biden warned China's Xi on West's investment after Putin meeting

U.S. President Joe Biden told Chinese President Xi Jinping following his meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin to "be careful" because Beijing relies on Western investment, according to excerpts from an interview with CNN.

"I said: This is not a threat. This is an observation," Biden said.

[...]

Asked what Xi's response was, Biden said: "He listened, and he didn't...argue. And if you notice, he has not gone full-bore in on Russia."

Även Kina ger ett begränsat stöd till Ryssland. Landet behöver nämligen handeln med väst.

All style, no substance for Iran in China

In 2021, China agreed to invest US$400 billion over 25 years to support Iran’s development. The agreement was reportedly “activated” last year during a visit to China by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, leading many to assume Raisi’s visit would yield specifics on implementation.

[...]

Since Raisi became president in August 2021, Iran has attracted $5.95 billion in direct foreign investment, and nearly half of that has come from Russia, at $2.7 billion. China’s presence is limited to small- and medium-sized projects worth just $185 million. The rosy picture China painted for Iran in 2021 has yet to materialize. What’s China waiting for?

For starters, China has been under tremendous international pressure over its economic ties to Russia since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Investing heavily in Iran now would only invite further scrutiny and leave it open to a new round of sanctions from Washington. China has made a similar calculation by not investing heavily in Afghanistan.

Kina prioriterar som sagt handeln med väst, om än något motvilligt. Ryssland är en annan historia:

How Putin Cannibalizes Russian Economy to Survive Personally

Putin has levied draconian “windfall taxes” on basically anything that moves. Many thought last year’s record $1.25 trillion ruble windfall tax on Gazprom and certain other Russian state owned businesses was a one-time occurrence, but Putin has only doubled down and ordered more windfall taxes in the months since, raising trillions of rubles more from companies and oligarchs alike. Likewise, first Putin resorted to levying onerous taxes on both companies and people leaving Russia after the invasion before he dropped all pretense and just started indiscriminately seizing money and property instead.

Similarly, Putin has abandoned all pretense of responsible fiscal policy, running record budget deficits, printing record amounts of money out of thin air, forcing Russian banks and individuals to buy near-worthless Russian debt, and drawing down Russia’s hundreds of billions in sovereign wealth funds, mortgaging away Russia’s future. No wonder disenchanted elites such as oligarch Oleg Deripaska are reduced to complaining to the press while across Russia, labor strikes are taking place with increasing frequency in a throwback to 1917 amidst already disastrous labor shortages.

[...]

There is a historical pattern here. Of the two major Russian revolutions over the past century, both were undergirded by debilitating economic woes caused partially by military overreach and struggles on the battlefield. After all, wars are never cheap: economic analysts estimate that sustaining its military efforts costs Russia at least $1 billion a day, and it surely didn’t help that Putin sunk billions in not only the Wagner Group but also Prigozhin’s other companies. Likewise, World War I drained Tsar Nicholas II’s coffers prior to his abdication in 1917, when Russia was wracked by over 100 labor strikes amidst widespread famine, exacerbated by both forced conscription as well as returning military veterans. And prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the escalating costs of the Cold War combined with low oil prices and severe recession undermined the Soviet economy from within. Losing wars seems to go hand-in-hand with economic morass and regime change in Russia.

Hur säkert sitter Putin egentligen om kriget fortsätter i några år till?

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Att banditen Erdogan är en tjuv vet vi redan, nu även utpressare: Nytt Nato-krav från Erdogan

Problemet är att man riskerar att förväxla offer och gärningsman, något som tyvärr inte alls är ovanligt idag: ”Väldig press på Sverige”

Michael Sahlin, tidigare svensk ambassadör i Turkiet, säger att eftermiddagens möte lär avgöra mycket.

– Det handlar om i fall Sverige har något mer att bjuda på idag, eller om vi kommer att säga att vi har gjort vår del. Kan Kristersson åka till Vilnius och inte ha med någon mer svensk eftergift? Jag är orolig för att det blir en väldig press på Sverige att leverera något mer, säger han.

– Jag hoppas att vi inte känner oss tvingande att gå med på eftergifter som vi behöver betala ett högt pris för sedan.

Som vad, kan du ge exempel?

– Erdogan tycker inte att de nya terrorlagarna gör skillnad, och säger att PKK fortfarande paraderar på svenska gator. Det kan vara mer av utvisningar som han är ute efter.

– Sedan är det viktigt att förstå att Turkiet är ute efter garantier också efter en ratifikation. Man vill att det här ska vara varaktigt. Det är möjligt att Kristersson har med sig något om det, att man ställer upp långsiktigt på ständiga möten mellan Säpo och säkerhetstjänsten i Turkiet. Det är en situation som inte kan vara önskvärd, att vi skulle ha närmare säkerhetsmässig relation än med något annat Natoland.

Goda nyheter i Moskva!

Stoltenberg hjälper också till att stryka banditen Erdogan medhårs (de hårstrån han nu har kvar):

– Jag stödjer Turkiets ambition om att bli EU-medlem. Samtidigt måste vi komma ihåg vad vi enades om i Madrid, säger han, och hänvisar till mötet förra sommaren då Sverige och Turkiet enades om en kravlista inför att Turkiet skulle godkänna ett svenskt medlemskap.

Men det finns ju gränser. Han hade överhuvud taget inte behövt uttala sig om detta, utan sagt att det är en fråga för EU. Det är inte Nato:s sak att uttala sig om vilka länder som bör komma med i EU (som är en sammanslutning av demokratier)


Hör på, här ..................

[dr Cassandra Nojdh]

Michael Sahlin, tidigare svensk ambassadör i Turkiet, säger att eftermiddagens möte lär avgöra mycket.

– Sedan är det viktigt att förstå att Turkiet är ute efter garantier också efter en ratifikation. Man vill att det här ska vara varaktigt. Det är möjligt att Kristersson har med sig något om det, att man ställer upp långsiktigt på ständiga möten mellan Säpo och säkerhetstjänsten i Turkiet. Det är en situation som inte kan vara önskvärd, att vi skulle ha närmare säkerhetsmässig relation än med något annat Natoland

Som väntat har Kristersson-regimen vikt ned sig fullständigt. Full pott för banditen Erdogan: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_217147.htm

• 3. Sweden and Türkiye agree today to continue their cooperation under both the Trilateral Permanent Joint Mechanism established at the Madrid NATO Summit 2022, and under a new bilateral Security Compact that will meet annually at ministerial level and create working groups as appropriate. At the first meeting of this Security Compact, Sweden will present a roadmap as the basis of its continued fight against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations towards the full implementation of all elements of the Trilateral Memorandum, including article 4. Sweden reiterates that it will not provide support to YPG/PYD, and the organisation described as FETÖ in Türkiye.
• 4. Both Sweden and Türkiye agreed that counter-terrorism cooperation is a long-term effort, which will continue beyond Sweden’s accession to NATO. Secretary General Stoltenberg also reconfirmed that NATO categorically condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. NATO will be significantly stepping up its work in this area, including by the Secretary General establishing, for the first time at NATO, the post of Special Coordinator for Counter-Terrorism.
  [..... ]
• 6. Sweden and Türkiye have also agreed to step up economic cooperation, through the Türkiye-Sweden Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO). Both Türkiye and Sweden will look to maximise opportunities to increase bilateral trade and investments. Sweden will actively support efforts to reinvigorate Türkiye’s EU accession process, including modernisation of the EU-Türkiye Customs Union and visa liberalisation.

Stoltenberg fick linda in det hela i mycket diplomatiskt svammel. För att inte tala om Kristerssons förklaringar till alla utvidgningar av bilaterala samarbeten, som inte har något med Nato-ansökan att göra. Sveriges åtaganden mot Turkiet är ett "kontinuum.....". Rättsläget kan komma att "utvecklas".......

Men det är väl som den här figuren säger: Kan paketeras som en seger för samtliga. Omslaget är viktigare än innehållet.