Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 03 februari 2023 22:55 Vad jag har läst eller inte läst angår ingen, allra minst Enceladus-kollektivet!
Jag tolkar detta som ett nej. Här är några av hans verk:

Why Ukraine Must Bargain for Peace With Russia (från 2014)
Trump Should Strike a Deal With Putin on Syria (från 2018)
The West’s Weapons Won’t Make Any Difference to Ukraine (från 2022)
Avoiding a Long War (från 2023)
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5906
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: fredag 03 februari 2023 23:01
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 03 februari 2023 22:55 Vad jag har läst eller inte läst angår ingen, allra minst Enceladus-kollektivet!
Jag tolkar detta som ett nej. Här är några av hans verk:

Why Ukraine Must Bargain for Peace With Russia (från 2014)
Trump Should Strike a Deal With Putin on Syria (från 2018)
The West’s Weapons Won’t Make Any Difference to Ukraine (från 2022)
Avoiding a Long War (från 2023)
Ja, det är fler än Enceladuskollektivet som lider av liknande vanföreställningar. Men Enceladus-kollektivet ska få ett gott råd alldeles gratis: Försök håll isär vad kollektivet (ev.) har tänkt själv från det som andra har sagt eller skrivit.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Lennart Petersen
Inlägg: 3088
Blev medlem: söndag 21 augusti 2011 22:53

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: fredag 03 februari 2023 22:39 Här ä

Lennart Petersen skrev: lördag 23 juli 2022 2:14
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 22 juli 2022 19:27 Pensionerade överstelöjtnanten Jörgen Elfving skisserar några möjliga scenarier. Jörgen Elfving har varit underrättelseofficer och vet en del om hur ryssen gör.

Sex scenarion – Så kan kriget sluta
Jag har inte skrivit detta.
Godhetsfullt var mer försiktig och noggrann med citat.
Bäst är att inte skriva med citat alls. Med floder av citat och kommentarer blir inläggen helt oläsliga.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Ett förtydligande:
Lennart Petersen skrev: lördag 23 juli 2022 2:14
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 22 juli 2022 19:27 Pensionerade överstelöjtnanten Jörgen Elfving skisserar några möjliga scenarier. Jörgen Elfving har varit underrättelseofficer och vet en del om hur ryssen gör.

Sex scenarion – Så kan kriget sluta
Det låter ju som att helgardera på stryktipset.
Jag tror nog att 1,2,3 och 6 är mindre sannolika men inte osannolika.
4 och 5 ganska sannolika, man förhandlar fram en fred där U avstår från Krim och de så kallade folkrepublikerna
Enligt militäranalytikern Kofman det ytterst osannolikt att kriget slutar med samma gränser som den 23 februari 2022. Gränserna är helt enkelt onaturliga:
UnHerd skrev:Will Ukraine push to retake Crimea?

There is one point where this war is not going to end. Its February 23rd lines, where it began. That is quite clear. It’s neither a viable political boundary nor a geographical boundary nor any sort of boundary. Nor can you picture the Ukrainian President basically getting to February 23rd lines, which are minimum interim goals and saying: ‘all right, we should talk about a settlement for the rest of this territory rather than trying to retake it’.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 9 019 enheter, varav 1 673 stridsvagnar och två arktiska luftvärnsrobotsystem av typen Tor-M2DT.

EU countries agree on price cap for Russian fuel
Le Monde skrev:European Union member states on Friday, February 3, reached an agreement on price caps for Russian petroleum products, ahead of an international embargo set to go into force over the weekend, officials said. EU diplomats said the levels agreed were $100 for more expensive fuel such as diesel, and $45 per barrel on lower-quality products such as fuel oil and heating oil.

[...]

The move is the latest part of an international push to limit Russian President Vladimir Putin's war chest for his assault on Ukraine by targeting his key exports. The EU in December imposed an embargo on Russian crude oil coming in by sea and – together with its G7 partners – set a $60-dollar-per-barrel cap for exports around the world.

[...]

Brussels says the embargo on crude oil has seen the bloc cut out some 90% of Russian imports, after exceptions were granted for supplies flowing by pipeline to landlocked countries like Hungary.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Thursday estimated during a visit to Kyiv that the existing price cap on Russian oil was already costing Moscow around 160 million euros ($175 million) every day.
Även den ekonomiska utnötningen fortsätter.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Oil depot catches fire in Belgorod region of Russia
Militarnyi skrev:On the night of February 4, a large-scale fire occurred at an oil depot in the town of Borisovka, in the Belgorod region of Russia.

[...]

The production of the Borisov Bridge Steel Structure Plant has reportedly suffered serious damage by fire from the oil depot.

It is noted that this enterprise produced metal structures for the construction of the Crimean bridge across the Kerch Strait, connecting the occupied Ukrainian Crimea with the aggressor state.

[...]

It should be recalled that in January, the Russian Forpost-RU reconnaissance and strike UAV crashed in the Belgorod region. The incident left part of the region without electricity for a while. De-energization was caused by the damage to high-voltage power lines.
Det sker många olyckor i Belgorod-området på sistone. Bryr sig Putin bara om invånarna i Moskva och Sankt Petersburg?
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 03 februari 2023 19:24 Och här är mer "rysk propaganda" (från Washington Post) om hur Stalin går igen och att ryssarna för krig på det enda sätt de kan, som Josef Stalin.
Putin is embracing Stalin’s way of war
Den länkade artikeln hänvisar till en annan intressant artikel om kriget i Ukraina:

Xi Jinping doesn’t want to wind up on the losing side in Ukraine
Washington Post skrev:Russia has a lot more people, a larger economy and a more powerful military than Ukraine. By all rights, it should have crushed Ukraine at the start of the war. That this didn’t happen — and that the war is now heading into its second year with Kyiv in a good position to regain more lost ground — can be explained in no small part by the reality that Ukraine has many allies and Russia does not.

[...]

Russia needs foreign help, too. It’s running low on everything from artillery shells to drones to missiles. But only two rogue states that we know of — Iran and North Korea — have so far been willing to provide the Kremlin with military equipment. Advantage, Ukraine.

[...]

But remember: China also had a robust economic relationship with Ukraine before the invasion. Indeed, as noted by my Council on Foreign Relations colleague Zongyuan Zoe Liu: “By 2019, China had replaced Russia as Ukraine’s largest trading partner, becoming the top importer of Ukrainian barley and iron ore, while Ukraine overtook the United States as China’s largest corn supplier.”

[...]

As an unsentimental practitioner of realpolitik, Xi does not want to wind up on what could be the losing side. The Financial Times reports, based on conversations with Chinese officials, that “China now perceives a likelihood that Russia will fail to prevail against Ukraine and emerge from the conflict a ‘minor power,’ much diminished economically and diplomatically on the world stage.”

[...]

Paul Heer, a 30-year veteran of the CIA and former national intelligence officer for East Asia, told me he agreed there was a “potential opportunity” here: “Putin has become an embarrassment to Xi, if not yet a net liability.” But the question is what kind of quid pro quo can Washington offer? “Beijing isn’t going to side with us against Moscow simply because it’s the right thing to do,” Heer pointed out. “What’s in it for China to do so?”
Putins misslyckade krig är en allt större belastning för Xi, men har Kina något att vinna på att ställa sig på USA:s sida?

Russia’s Oil And Gas Revenues Slump 46% Year-Over-Year
Oilprice.com skrev:Russia’s budget revenues from oil and gas plunged in January by 46% compared to the same month last year due to the sanctions on Russian oil exports, which led to a slump in the price of Russia’s flagship crude grade.

Russian budget revenues from energy sales – including taxes and customs revenues – plummeted last month to the lowest level since August 2020, according to data from its finance ministry compiled by Reuters.

In January 2023, the price of Russia’s flagship Urals grade averaged 42% lower than in the same month of 2022, as its discount to Brent Crude grew wider following the EU embargo and the G7 price cap, which came into effect on December 5. The average price of Urals in January, at $49.48 per barrel, was 1.7 times lower than in January 2022, when it averaged $85.64 per barrel, Russia’s Finance Ministry said earlier this week.
Det är svårt att betrakta Putin som en vinnare.

Western sanctions push Russia's energy revenues to lowest since 2020
Reuters skrev:The Finance Ministry on Friday said it would almost treble its daily sales of foreign currency to 8.9 billion roubles ($130 million) a day over the next month to compensate for the fall in oil and gas revenues.

[...]

Unless prices for Russian oil recover in the coming months, analysts at Credit Bank of Moscow said on Friday the budget deficit could hit 5.5 trillion roubles ($78 billion) this year, equivalent to 3.8% of GDP.

Russia's budget for 2023 foresees a deficit of 2% of GDP, and any larger shortfall would require a mix of higher foreign currency sales, lower spending, more borrowing or tax rises.
Det brukar sägas att ekonomi är att välja.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russia to Boost Currency Sales to Offset Energy Revenue Drop
Bloomberg skrev:The Finance Ministry said Friday it will sell 160.2 billion rubles ($2.3 billion) during the Feb. 7-March 6 period under a budgetary mechanism aimed at insulating the economy from the ups and downs in oil prices.

With the bulk of its international reserves frozen by US and European sanctions, the yuan is the main asset Russia can still use to conduct sales from its wealth fund to cover spending.

For December, the government reported its holdings of the Chinese currency amounted to 310 billion yuan ($46 billion). Russia will sell the equivalent of 8.9 billion rubles in foreign currency daily through March 6, according to the Finance Ministry.

Sales may average as much as $2 billion per month for the rest of the year, according to Bloomberg Economics, which estimates that they will reduce the Russian sovereign wealth fund’s liquid assets by $21 billion from $87 billion.
Bloomberg uppskattar att Ryssland behöver dumpa en fjärdedel av sina likvida tillgångar hos sin statsfond i år.

Putin promised not to kill Zelensky, Israeli mediator says
The Hill skrev:Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said in an interview that Russian President Vladimir Putin promised not to kill Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the early days of the Kremlin’s invasion of its neighbor.

In response to Bennett’s remarks, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned that Putin is an “expert liar.”

“In the past, Putin has made promises not to occupy Crimea, not to violate Minsk agreements, not to invade Ukraine, yet he has done all of these things,” Kuleba wrote in a tweet. “Do not be fooled: he is an expert liar. Every time he has promised not to do something, it has been exactly part of his plan.”
Ukrainas president Volodymyr Zelensky har överlevt tolv mordförsök medan chefen för Ukrainas militära underrättelsetjänst Kyrylo Budanov har överlevt tio mordförsök. Ryssland anklagar Budanov för att ligga bakom explosionen på Kertjbron och ryska militärbloggare avskyr honom. Putins ord saknar värde.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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AFU liquidate Russian brigade commander Polyakov
Espreso TV skrev:It was reported by Ukrainian journalist Denys Kazanskyi with reference to social networks on Sunday, February 5, 2023.

"On February 3, the 14th brigade commander Sergey Polyakov was killed in Donbas," he said.

[...]

His brigade is subordinate to the Russian GRU military special service.
Ännu en rysk befälhavare har stupat. I skrivande stund har Ryssland förlorat minst 1 740 officerare och 12 538 soldater. Den senare siffran är förstås en kraftig underskattning. Till råga på allt har Ryssland nyss förlorat en pensionerad befälhavare som ledde ett mobiliserat motoriserat skytteregemente.
Enceladus skrev: fredag 03 februari 2023 20:35 ISW tror däremot inte att Putins fruktade våroffensiv lyckas. Möjligen pågår denna offensiv redan i skrivande stund!
Kofman lutar åt samma håll:
Michael Kofman skrev:I would consider a Russian attempt to advance Kreminna -> Lyman as likely, also Kupyansk, along with attacks across southern Donetsk, i.e. at Vuhledar. The fighting for Vuhledar, along with attacks elsewhere, suggest that this offensive has already begun in practice. 17/

RU’s better forces and kit, VDV and NI, have been trying to unsuccessfully press UA forces out of Vuhledar. The 155th couldn’t do it under Surovikin at Pavlivka in November, so its unsurprising Gerasimov taking over has done nothing to improve RU offensive performance. 18/

[...]

Western equipment may not arrive in time to be relevant for a UA offensive, but more significant in that it will allow UA to launch operations this spring knowing they have replacements secured. Hence the likely losses entailed won't leave UA vulnerable later this year. 23/

In general UA is still advantaged going into 2023, backed by countries with much greater GDP and defense industrial capacity. However, that depends on sustainability of external material support, and in the end potential is not predictive of outcomes. 24/
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russia’s revenue falls sharply in January from year earlier
AP News skrev:Russia’s finance ministry said Monday that budget revenue in January was 35% lower compared with the same month in 2022, the last month before Russia sent troops into Ukraine.

The ministry also said the budget deficit for January was 1.77 trillion rubles ($23.9 billion), about 60% of the shortfall that had been planned for the entire year.

Oil and gas revenue, the backbone of Russia’s economy, was down 46% compared with January 2022.
Vilket budgetunderskott för blott årets första månad!

Russia’s Deficit Hits $25 Billion as Energy Income Slumps
Bloomberg skrev:The Russian government’s oil and gas revenue slumped in January, contributing to the biggest budget deficit for the first month of the year since at least 1998.

Tax revenue from oil and gas plunged 46% in January from a year ago, while there was a 59% increase in spending due to the war in Ukraine. The combination of those factors gave Russia a public deficit of 1.76 trillion rubles ($25 billion), the Finance Ministry said on Monday.

[...]

A decline in Russian gas exports also contributed to lower energy revenue after Gazprom PJSC cut the bulk of its shipments to Europe, once its biggest market.

Non-energy revenues also dropped 28% in January, the ministry said, blaming in part a change in rules for the value added tax.

[...]

In a separate statement, the Finance Ministry revealed that it sold 3.6 tons of gold as well as 2.3 billion yuan from the sovereign wealth fund in January to help cover the deficit. The bulk of Russia’s international reserves have been frozen by international sanctions. The ministry said it believes it can still meet its budget targets this year.
Detta är alltså Putins värsta år - hittills!

BASF seeks 'permanent' cost cuts at European operations
Euronews skrev:The cutbacks at home contrast with a 10 billion euro chemical complex that BASF plans to build in Zhanjiang, southern China, to run entirely on renewable energy, as it banks on booming Asian markets and looks to reduce reliance on Europe.
Kinesiska förnybara energikällor är den nya ryska gasen...

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 9 034 enheter, varav 1 678 stridsvagnar. Nyligen förlorade Ryssland tre stycken T-90S i Vuhledar.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Rysslands bild av ekonomiska läget ”rena fantasierna”
DN skrev:Torbjörn Becker, chef för Östekonomiska institutet vid Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, säger att Lavrovs sätt att beskriva Rysslands läge inte stämmer med verkligheten:

– Om vi tittar på de omröstningar som har varit i FN till exempel är det absolut ingen majoritet som stöder Rysslands krig i Ukraina. Sedan finns det givetvis de länder som inte tydligt vill välja sida för Ukraina. Men vi förstår alla att det finns länder som just nu vill tjäna pengar på att handla med Ryssland för att Ryssland befinner sig i ett ganska försvagat förhandlingsläge.

[...]

Becker pekar på att den ryska ekonomin inte längre ger Ryssland möjlighet att vara lika inflytelserikt som tidigare. Och att landets ekonomi, som bland annat president Vladimir Putin påstod på torsdagen, skulle landa på plus under 2023 tror han inte:

– Det är mer eller mindre rena fantasier. Och den statistik som kommer ut från Ryssland just nu är en som passar deras propagandamaskineri. Den mest betydelsefulla variabeln för att förutspå rysk bnp-tillväxt är internationella oljepriser. Och det Ryssland kommer att få betalt för sin olja under 2023, som det nu ser ut, kommer att sjunka med 30 till 40 procent. Då är det nästan omöjligt att se var den ryska tillväxten skulle komma ifrån.
Den som påstår motsatsen har nog inte följt rysk makroekonomisk utveckling speciellt länge.

Russia to cut oil output by 5% as sanctions bite
DN skrev:Russia will cut crude oil production by half a million barrels per day starting in March, a little over two months after the world’s major economies imposed a price cap on the country’s seaborne exports.

“We will not sell oil to those who directly or indirectly adhere to the principles of the price ceiling,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in a statement. “In relation to this, Russia will voluntarily reduce production by 500,000 barrels per day in March. This will contribute to the restoration of market relations.”

[...]

“Russia currently has a limited pool of buyers for its crudes and has likely found a ceiling to its export sales in the near term, primarily to China and India,” said Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.

According to Reuters, Russia took the decision to reduce its output without consulting the OPEC+ group of producers, which includes Saudi Arabia. OPEC+ decided in October to cut output by 2 million barrels per day and has not adjusted that stance since.
Har inte Putin sagt att sanktionerna inte fungerar? :roll:

Crackdown on ‘birth tourism’ as pregnant Russians flock to Argentina
The Guardian skrev:Carignano spoke after 33 expecting women – all between 32 and 34 weeks into their pregnancies – arrived on the same flight late on Thursday. Several of the women were initially turned away at passport control but were eventually let into the country.

While the concept of birth tourism isn’t new, Moscow’s isolation from the west as a result of the war has made Argentina, where Russians face no visa requirements, a popular destination for families looking to give their children the privileges of second citizenship.

[...]

“The problem is that they arrive, have their children and then leave Argentina never to come back,” Carignano said. “We cannot allow them to shamelessly lie to us saying that they are tourists when they are not.”
Att bara ha ryskt medborgarskap kan nuförtiden vara en dödsdom. Ironiskt nog väljer ryssarna samma tillflyktsort som nazisterna...
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russia Likely Lost Half its Heavy Tanks in Ukraine: U.S.
The Moscow Times skrev:Russia "has probably lost half of its main battle tank stock in combat and through Ukrainian capture," Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander said during a Center for a New American Security virtual event.

The estimate by Wallander, who did not provide an exact figure for the number of tanks lost since Russia invaded in February 2022, comes as Ukraine is set to receive an influx of heavy Western tanks from its supporters.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 9 186 enheter, varav 1 718 stridsvagnar.

As Russia’s Losses in Ukraine Spike, Those Tracking the Deaths Are Overwhelmed
The Moscow Times skrev:An independent media outlet tallying the number of Russian military fatalities in Ukraine advertised this week for volunteers because — for the first time since the start of the war — it did not have enough people to process the incoming reports of deaths.

Mediazona’s staffing issues are just one of a series of recent indicators that Russia is suffering particularly high casualties in Ukraine as it intensifies military efforts ahead of what some believe is an imminent offensive.

[...]

Igor Girkin, a retired Russian special ops officer who led rebels in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and has since become a vocal critic of the Russian war effort, described Wagner units Thursday as “battalions of death.”
Ryssland förlorar inte bara utrustning, utan också kanonföda.

Slovakia can start talks on sending MIG-29 jets to Ukraine -PM
Reuters skrev:Slovakia can start the process of talks on delivering MIG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine now once Kyiv has officially asked for the planes, Prime Minister Eduard Heger said on Friday.

[...]

"Our MIGs can save innocent lives in Ukraine," he said.

[...]

The Slovak government ordered F-16 fighter jets from the United States in 2018 to replace the ageing MiG-29 planes.
Blir det någonsin en leverans?

Moldova names new pro-EU prime minister after government falls amid Russian pressure
POLITICO skrev:Moldovan President Maia Sandu on Friday nominated a new prime minister to keep her country on a pro-EU trajectory after the previous government fell earlier in the day, following months of rising Russian pressure amid the war in Ukraine.

[...]

The Moldovan government has long accused Russia, which bases soldiers in the breakaway region of Transnistria in the east, of stirring unrest in the country, including protests in the capital, Chișinău. In an interview with POLITICO last month, Sandu accused Russia of using the energy crisis and spiraling costs to “bring instability to Moldova,” referring to disinformation efforts by Russia to stoke anti-government feeling.

[...]

Sandu, a Harvard-educated former anti-corruption campaigner, told POLITICO last month that a “serious discussion” was now taking place in the country, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including the possibility of joining a defense alliance.

[...]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told EU leaders during Thursday’s European summit in Brussels that Ukraine had intercepted Russian plans to “destroy” Moldova.
Håller Ryssland på att tappa greppet om Moldavien?
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5906
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Ryssarna, som tydligen behärskar Kakhovka-dammen fortfarande, försöker tömma Kakhovka-reservoaren:
Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Breitspurbahn
Inlägg: 436
Blev medlem: tisdag 11 februari 2020 10:38

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Intressant intervju med förre israeliske premiärministern; tydligen fanns det lovande chanser att avsluta kriget i Ukraina efter en och en halv vecka, men västländer som USA & Storbritannien stoppade de förhandlingarna.

Enceladus
Inlägg: 9736
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

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Breitspurbahn skrev: tisdag 14 februari 2023 11:26 Intressant intervju med förre israeliske premiärministern; tydligen fanns det lovande chanser att avsluta kriget i Ukraina efter en och en halv vecka, men västländer som USA & Storbritannien stoppade de förhandlingarna.
Ryska påverkanskampanjer, inte minst falska fredsförhandlingar, har nyligen diskuterats här:
Enceladus skrev: måndag 13 februari 2023 20:30 ISW: Rysk påverkanskampanj försenade stridsvagnsleveranser
DN skrev:Båda gångerna ska syftet ha varit att försena leveransen av moderna vapen från väst. Enligt ISW avslutades den ryska kampanjen om fred i samband med ett tal från Rysslands utrikesminister Sergej Lavrov den 27 december, då han sade att Ryssland skulle ”leta efter en militär lösning” i Ukraina. Kreml ska då ha gjort bedömningen att deras påverkanskampanj fyllt sitt syfte, då beslut om moderna stridsvagnar försenats så pass länge att de inte skulle nå fram till fronten innan Rysslands nästa stora offensiv påbörjats.
Enligt ovanstående artikel har västvärlden låtit sig påverkas av diverse ryska påverkanskampanjer. Exempelvis försenades leveransen av västerländska stridsvagnar när Ryssland började antyda att landet överväger fredsförhandlingar. Är detta verkligen möjligt? :x
Skribentens inlägg är alltså några månader sent. Jag misstänker emellertid inte att skribenten får betalt, likt en ökänd populist:
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 27 januari 2023 12:54 Högerextremisten och koranbrännaren Rasmus Paludan skulle i så fall vara en sk. nyttig idiot, medan spåren leder någon annanstans.
Här är en intressant dokumentär om Putins förmodade syn på kriget:



Russia may have lost an entire elite brigade near a Donetsk coal-mining town
POLITICO skrev:As Russia probes Ukraine’s defensive lines ahead of an expected offensive, it might have lost an entire brigade of the elite 155th naval infantry while storming Vuhledar, a coal-mining town in the Donetsk region.

[...]

Russian forces also were losing 150-300 marines a day near Vuhledar, Dmytrashkivskyi said. He estimated the brigade to have comprised some 5,000 soldiers in all, whose members had been killed, wounded or taken prisoner.

Russian tactical failures around Vuhledar have likely further weakened the Russian ultranationalist community’s belief that Moscow’s forces are able to launch a decisive offensive operation, the Institute for the Study of War reported in its latest update. Pro-Kremlin military bloggers have been mourning huge losses and criticizing the Russian command for sending the elite troops in frontal attacks.
Gerasimov fortsätter att leverera.

Survey: 89% of Ukrainians ready to keep fighting even if Russia uses tactical nukes
The Kyiv Independent skrev:According to the results published by the 2023 Munich Security Index, 89% of Ukrainians are prepared to continue fighting against Russia even in the event of a tactical nuclear strike.

The survey, which was conducted in November 2022, revealed that 93% of the population believe that the only acceptable condition for a ceasefire requires the complete withdrawal of Russian troops, even from occupied Crimea.

Only 7% of Ukrainians favor Russian troops withdrawing to the demarcation line, which existed until Feb. 24.
Inte ens kärnvapen kan rädda Putins misslyckade invasion!

Moldova closes airspace, one day after warning of Russian coup plot
Reuters skrev:Moldova temporarily closed its air space on Tuesday, one day after the tiny east European country's president accused Russia of plotting to bring down its government.
Planerade FSB en rent fysisk kupp snarare än en påverkansoperation för att destabilisera nationen? Putin måste vara desperat efter alla misslyckanden hittills.

Serbian saboteurs were supposed to arrive in Moldova under the guise of fans
The Odessa Journal skrev:On February 9, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky said that he had previously handed over to the Moldovan authorities Russian plans to organize a coup in the country, intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence. In Chisinau, these words were confirmed. Literally, the next day, the Moldovan government resigned.

Later, Moldovan President Maia Sandu revealed Russia’s plans for a coup in the country. Moscow intends to use the protests of the “opposition” by attracting people with military training, as well as citizens of the Russian Federation, Belarus, and the Balkan countries.

The saboteurs involved in the coup attempt in Moldova were supposed to enter the country under the guise of Serbian football fans. This was stated by the MP from the ruling party of Moldova, “Action and Solidarity” Adrian Keptonar, on the air of local television.
Även Serbien fortsätter att leverera...
Enceladus
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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War and subsidies have turbocharged the green transition
The Economist skrev:Lofty prices mean that consumers and firms have sought to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels. Last year the world economy became 2% less energy-intensive—measured by the amount of energy it uses to produce one unit of gdp—its fastest rate of improvement in a decade. Efforts to consume less are most apparent in Europe, which in recent months has been assisted by unusually mild temperatures. Together warm weather and greater energy efficiency mean the continent has used 6-8% less electricity this winter than in the previous one. All over the world, capital is being mobilised on a vast scale to make the economy more frugal. Last year governments, households and firms together spent $560bn on energy efficiency. This money mainly went on two technologies: electric vehicles and heat pumps. Sales of the former almost doubled in both 2021 and 2022.

[...]

At the same time, the fuel squeeze has turbocharged clean-energy policy in the world’s biggest economies. America’s Inflation Reduction Act (ira) earmarks $369bn of subsidies for green tech; the European Commission has unveiled a “Net-Zero Industry Act”, which will provide at least €250bn ($270bn) to clean-tech companies, while also bringing forward the target for doubling the eu’s installed solar capacity to 2025, from 2030. National ambitions have been supersized, too. In July Germany raised its target for the renewable share in power generation by 2030 to 80%, from 65%. China’s 14th five-year plan for energy, released in June, for the first time sets a goal for the share of renewables in power generation (of 33% by 2025). The country’s provincial governments are also increasingly offering green incentives.

[...]

In an alternative, less protectionist universe America’s and Europe’s vast spending packages would have an even bigger impact. But even in this fallen world, they are still pretty momentous—sufficient, forecasters consulted by The Economist estimate, to accelerate the energy transition by five to ten years. The investment surge and tighter targets should create an enormous amount of renewable-generation capacity. All told, the iea expects global renewable-energy capacity to rise by 2,400gw between 2022 and 2027, an amount equivalent to China’s entire installed power capacity today. That is almost 30% higher than the agency’s forecast in 2021, released before the war. Renewables are set to account for 90% of the increase in global generation capacity over the period.
Som sagt blev Putin förra årets miljöhjälte.

EU slår mot olja, vapen och blöjor – tionde sanktionspaketet på gång
DN skrev:– Sanktionerna är som ett gift som verkar långsamt. De är som arsenik, det tar tid men de har effekt. Långsamt men säkert har de undergrävt industrin och energisektorn som är grundbulten i den ryska ekonomin. Putin har redan förlorat kriget om energin.

[...]

För första gången föreslår också EU-kommissionen att straffa de iranska företag och organisationer som levererar drönare till Ryssland.

[...]

I januari i år var de ryska intäkterna från olja och gas 46 procent lägre än januari i fjol, uppgav Rysslands finansdepartement nyligen. Och landets budgetunderskott har mer än tiodubblats på ett år.

[...]

Det är pikant läsning: exportstoppet rör inte bara champagne och diamanter, utan också mer mondäna prylar såsom vindrutetorkare och backspeglar, skidbindningar och golfbollar, smörknivar, blöjor, spelkort och lösmustascher gjorda på riktigt hår.

Att stoppa exporten av dessa ting handlar inte om att krympa den ryska ekonomin, utan ska göra vardagen dystrare för den ryska medelklassen, som gärna konsumerar mat, dryck, kläder och prylar av god kvalitet från Europa.
I samma veva blir livet allt svårare i Ryssland. Till slut får det ryska folket måhända nog.

Anhöriga: Ryssland tvingar migranter till fronten
DN skrev:– I början funderade jag också på att åka eftersom alla trodde att Ryssland var mäktigare, att Ryssland skulle vinna – kanske om en månad, tre månader eller om ett år. Men nu ser vi hur många människor som dör där, säger han.

[...]

Enligt Markus Göransson, lektor i krigsvetenskap vid Försvarshögskolan, är tadzjiker en av de största grupperna migrantarbetare i Ryssland. Han har sett att tadzjikiska medier skrivit om landsmän som stupat i Ukraina efter att ha blivit värvade eller tvångsrekryterade, vissa av dem var ex-fångar – andra inte. Det finns även medierapporter om tadzjiker som stoppats på flygplatsen när de försökt resa ut ur Ryssland och fått en inkallelseorder i handen.

[...]

– Man vänder på varje sten för att få rekryter och vill ogärna stöta sig med medelklassen i Sankt Petersburg och Moskva. Många migranter är rättslösa eller lever i juridisk limbo, de vet inte om de har rätt att vistas i landet. De är diskriminerade och illa ansedda i Ryssland.
Putin är uppenbarligen inte allsmäktig. Han gör allt för att undvika att stöta sig med den urbana medelklassen.

Russia Put 6,000 Ukrainian Kids in Re-Education Camps, Yale Study Finds
Bloomberg skrev:Russia has placed thousands of Ukrainian children in camps where they’re subjected to Russian propaganda and forcible adoption by Russian families, with some even undergoing military training, a US government-backed report from Yale University found.

The campaign violates the Geneva Conventions and could constitute war crimes, crimes against humanity and possibly genocide, researchers from the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab said. It has involved children from 4 months old to 17 years.

[...]

While at least 6,000 children could be confirmed to have participated in the camps, the researchers “think the number is probably significantly higher,” Nathaniel Raymond, a Yale researcher who worked on the report, told reporters in a phone briefing on Tuesday. “The primary purpose of the camps appears to be political reeducation.”
Däremot drar sig Putin inte för att uträtta folkmord i Ukraina.

Russian army has lost up to half of key battle tanks, analysts estimate
The Guardian skrev:Russia’s army is estimated to have lost nearly 40% of its prewar fleet of tanks after nine months of fighting in Ukraine, according to a count by the specialist thinktank the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS).

[...]

Its headline count is that Russia’s number of tanks in its army have reduced by 38% from 2,927 to 1,800, while there have been particularly heavy losses of its workhorse T-72B3, an upgrade first delivered to its army in 2013.

[...]

But, while the battlefield losses are notable, Russia retains a large number of old tanks in long-term storage, currently estimated at 5,000, meaning Moscow can continue to pursue an attritional strategy for some time to come.
Samtidigt har Ryssland förlorat nästan hälften av sina stridsvagnar.
Enceladus
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Double Win: How Russian Oil Companies Defied Sanctions and Paid Less Tax
Carnegie Politika skrev:Oil industry taxation reform was one of the first major steps of Putin’s economic policy when he came to power, and oil revenues have been a key source of Putin’s power ever since, making it possible to finance a strong bureaucracy and security apparatus and to rein in powerful regional governors. The oil sector tax system put in place in 2001–2003 was designed to fight transfer pricing and shifting revenue to foreign subsidiaries of the oil companies by relying on an independent and observable indicator of the crude value: the international oil price.

The reduction in oil revenues to the Russian budget since the outbreak of war, therefore, is not just the result of sanctions and boycotts, but the work of Russian insiders. International measures merely created useful pretexts for the manipulation of the international oil price and transfer of oil revenues to the offshore wings of Russian oil companies.

Ironically, one of the actors behind this scheme is the mighty state-controlled Rosneft, whose CEO Igor Sechin is one of Putin’s most trusted aides. Sechin spent years gobbling up private Russian oil companies on the basis that private capital cannot be trusted, and only state control and devoted, patriotic managers like himself would align the companies’ interests with those of the country and prevent tax minimization and profit hiding.

[...]

And from March 2023 the Russian government plans to ditch the Urals quoted price from oil tax calculations and use Brent with a fixed discount instead.

[...]

These circumstances created an enormous rent-capturing opportunity at the expense of Russian state coffers and European consumers, which was gladly shared by the largest and oldest international oil company, ExxonMobil, and state-controlled Central European oil companies from both the most Putin-friendly country (Hungary’s MOL) and from one of the staunchest opponents (Poland’s PKN Orlen), as well as Russian oil companies.
Rysslands oligarker är inte så lojala som vissa vill tro, utan försöker stjäla så mycket pengar som möjligt från landet - inte helt olikt Putin själv!

Why global sanctions on Iran matter
Al Majalla skrev:The exchange rate stabilised at about 35,000 rials per dollar in 2015 when the JCPOA came in. The re-imposition of the US sanctions in 2018 raised the price of a single dollar to 150,000 rials in November 2018.

In December 2022, with talks to lift sanctions faltering at a time of inflation and popular protests over the killing of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, adding to international pressure on Iran, its currency reached its lowest level on record, at 440,000 per dollar.

At the end of December, the Iranian currency collapse toppled the governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Ali Salehabadi, who blamed protests and high interest rates in more than 90 countries around the world for this collapse. The government appointed Mohammad Reza Farzin as his successor.

[...]

The sanctions were not able to take oil exports to zero as planned, but they had a significant impact on the volume of exports, which fell to 400,000 BOPD in 2020 — a significant drop comparing to the 1.85 million BOPD exported in 2017.
Den iranska ekonomin går allt sämre, vilket inte bådar gott för Ryssland som utsätts för liknande sanktioner.

Defying EU boycott, Poland and Hungary send envoys to Iran Revolution anniversary
The Times of Israel skrev:Ambassadors representing both Poland and Hungary were pictured at a state ceremony commemorating the 44th anniversary of Iran’s Islamic Revolution, despite EU members’ boycott of Tehran in light of its brutal suppression of anti-government protesters.

[...]

Poland’s attendance at the ceremony in Tehran is more surprising, given Warsaw’s staunch support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. Iran has admitted to providing Russian forces with attack drones, though it claims that they have not been used to attack Ukrainian targets.

Hillel Neuer, executive director at UN Watch, labeled Hungary and Poland’s decision to attend the ceremony a “shame.”
Polen och Ungern lockas möjligen av mullornas konservativa värderingar. Under torsdagen besöker Israels utrikesminister Eli Cohen det krigsdrabbade Ukraina för ett möte med president Zelenskyj och utrikesminister Kuleba. Vad har Bibi för planer?

Explosions heard in Armyansk in northern Crimea — photo and video reports
The New Voice of Ukraine skrev:"An explosion was reported at one of the military bases in Armyansk. In any case it couldn't be the 'air defence working,'" the message reads.

Pictures and video of the explosion were published on Telegram channels. In one video, a large white mushroom cloud can be seen rising into the sky.
På sociala medier ryktas det om att Ryssland förlorade ett luftvärnsrobotsystem, antingen S-300 eller S-400. Fler explosioner i ockuperade områden.
Enceladus
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Moscow’s Military Capabilities Are in Question After Failed Battle for Ukrainian City
The New York Times skrev:The battle for the city of Vuhledar, which has been viewed as an opening move in an expected Russian spring offensive, has been playing out since the last week of January, but the scale of Moscow’s losses there is only now beginning to come into focus.

[...]

Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, told the BBC on Wednesday that “97 percent of the Russian army” is in Ukraine, though he did not elaborate or offer evidence for the claim. U.S. military officials estimate that about 80 percent of Russia’s ground forces are dedicated to the war effort.

[...]

Mr. Wallace, the British defense secretary, cited reports on Wednesday that “a whole Russian brigade was effectively annihilated” in Vuhledar, where he said that Moscow “lost over 1,000 people in two days.” The British Defense Intelligence Agency reported last week that Russian units had “likely suffered particularly heavy casualties around Vuhledar.”
Blir det inte bättre än så här för Rysslands offensiv?

Putin continues to believe he can win in Ukraine - Nuland
Censor.NЕТ skrev:"You see how the war is going on in the east, in Bakhmut. Russia has said that it is launching a new offensive. Well, if that's the case, it looks very pathetic, in my opinion," Nuland said. She also added that Ukraine is planning a counteroffensive "in some time".

Nuland also noted that "more than 200,000 Russians" have been killed or wounded in the fighting, that Russia has lost more than half of its military equipment in Ukraine, and that more than a million of its "smartest Russians" have fled the country.
Patetiskt var ordet.

Russia’s Defense Ministry plans to launch aerial warfare over Ukraine
Meduza skrev:Russia’s Defense Ministry has made the decision to start extensively using aircraft in the Ukraine war. The Russian outlet iStories reported this, citing a source close to the ministry.

“Until now, they were sparing it,” said the ministry insider about Russia’s former reluctance to use aircraft. “Now, they’ve decided to change their tactics.”

[...]

Acknowledging that the new tactics will lead to the Russian planes and helicopters being “shot down en masse” by the Ukrainian air defense systems, the same insider said aerial warfare will still cause problems for the Ukrainian army.
Tänker Gerasimov gå all in?

US agrees to sell 20 HIMARS to Netherlands for $670 million
Fox Business skrev:The Netherlands has asked to buy 20 M142 HIMARS launchers, 80 M57 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missile pods, 77 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rocket pods, plus a number of support vehicles, radars and spare parts. The deal, which is valued at $670 million, includes training and technical support from the U.S. government and contractors.
Då har Ukraina ytterligare en källa som kan tillhandahålla ATACMS om nu USA skyller på att landets lager är otillräckligt för sina egna behov.

Exclusive: Pakistan plans to quadruple domestic coal-fired power, move away from gas
Reuters skrev:Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming years, its energy minister told Reuters on Monday, as it seeks to ease a crippling foreign-exchange crisis.

A shortage of natural gas, which accounts for over a third of the country's power output, plunged large areas into hours of darkness last year. A surge in global prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and an onerous economic crisis had made LNG unaffordable for Pakistan.

"LNG is no longer part of the long-term plan," Pakistan Energy Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan told Reuters, adding that the country plans to increase domestic coal-fired power capacity to 10 gigawatts (GW) in the medium-term, from 2.31 GW currently.
Detta decennium skulle bli naturgasens gyllene era, men det satte Putin stopp för.
Enceladus
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Nuland: US supports Ukraine striking targets in Crimea
The Kyiv Independent skrev:"Russia has turned Crimea into a massive military installation…those are legitimate targets, Ukraine is hitting them, and we are supporting that," Nuland told the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

"No matter what the Ukrainians decide about Crimea in terms of where they choose to fight, etcetera, Ukraine is not going to be safe unless Crimea is at a minimum demilitarised," she added.

[...]

On Feb. 16-17, several explosions were reported in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol, followed by Moscow-installed proxies claiming Ukrainian drone attacks.
Putin ville ha hela Ukraina. Nu kan han istället förlora sin kronjuvel.

Spy arrested in Germany had to pass FSB coordinates of HIMARS delivered to Ukraine
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:Accordingly, the FSB instructed the BND agent to remove and transmit GPS data from HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems supplied by the United States and the IRIS-T air defence system supplied by Germany.

As a reward for his services, the employee received a six-figure sum; the money was found during the detention.

However, insiders point out it is unlikely that such data was transferred.
Förhoppningsvis gör Tyskland rent hus efter denna upptäckt.

Putin’s War to Lop $190 Billion Off Russia's Economy in Delayed Reckoning
Bloomberg skrev:An economy Putin once wanted to make one of the world’s five biggest is on a path to lose $190 billion in gross domestic product by 2026 relative to its prewar trajectory, according to Bloomberg Economics, roughly the equivalent of the entire annual GDP of countries like Hungary or Kuwait.

[...]

In what would be the sharpest contraction since the height of the global pandemic, data originally scheduled for Friday was expected to show GDP dropped an annual 4.6% in the fourth quarter, the Bloomberg poll showed.

[...]

The job will only get harder this year as Putin’s government races to stave off a collapse in oil revenues and ramps up spending on social programs at a time when the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of men is hollowing out the labor market.

[...]

“Declining imports of technology reduce the growth potential of the economy in the long term, rather than leading to a one-time slump that materializes in a single year,” said Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at BCS Financial Group.
Samtidigt är Rysslands långsiktiga utsikter nattsvarta. Som krigsexperten Oscar Jonsson säger: ”Allt kommer inte bli bra bara Putin försvinner”.

Russians switch to used cars as sanctions pummel auto sector
Reuters skrev:Spending on new cars slumped 52% to 1.5 trillion roubles ($20.4 billion) last year, while the number of new cars sold tumbled by 58.8%. Car production also slumped to its lowest since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union as Western automakers halted production and sold factories.

[...]

That left used cars accounting for almost three quarters of all cars sold, up from 55% in 2021, the data shows.

[...]

"A new car is now just a perk for rich people, unless it's a Lada or a Chinese car," he said.

[...]

Market analysts expect new car sales to climb to around 800,000 this year, from 687,370 in 2022, but still far below the more than 1.6 million sold in 2021.
Ryssland är ett av få länder som inte har några planer på att förbjuda fossilbilar. Men skulle det göra någon skillnad när de flesta ändå köper begagnat?
Enceladus
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Is Wagner Founder Yevgeny Prigozhin a Threat or Asset to Putin?
The Moscow Times skrev:Despite his enormous newfound notoriety, Prigozhin is still only acting as a private individual. His relationship with the state is informal, and therefore fragile, and could end without warning. Prigozhin has never been close enough to Putin to be trusted with anything on a state level. He didn’t have the chance to impress the president at work or as a friend as others did, such as those who worked with Putin in the early years of his career.

[...]

When Prigozhin was granted a certain degree of autonomy to operate in the war against Ukraine, his simmering conflict with the military leadership, in the form of Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, promptly intensified. After several months of a humiliating campaign launched by Prigozhin against them with the help of his media assets, the two defense officials managed to convince the president that Wagner’s independence was a threat to the army.

In response, Putin put Gerasimov in charge of the whole “special operation,” showing just how quickly he can redress a situation and ignoring the opinion of both Prigozhin and his adoring military bloggers, along with an entire camp of pro-war activists who openly despise Gerasimov and Shoigu.
Putin undviker kompetenta befälhavare av inrikespolitiska skäl. Vidare får Wagner inte längre rekrytera fångar medan tillförseln av ammunition kapas.

Why Iran is facing a crippling energy crisis
TRT World skrev:State media and pundits brandished a “harsh winter” for the Europeans when their dire need of the new gas providers would be out in the open. Europe survived the winter by working out alternative suppliers, including Algeria, Azerbaijan, Norway and the Netherlands, and never felt compelled to bypass or dilute the sanctions to purchase the Iranian gas.

But Iran experienced one of the most excruciating winters of recent times marked by massive outages and disruption to the supply of gas to households. On social media, Iranians quipped out of despair that the harsh winter which was supposed to befall Europe has instead haunted their own country.

[...]

“The rundown infrastructure resembles a war-torn country or a least developed economy, which cannot supply the needed services for citizens. According to the new figures on GDP per capita, Iran can no longer be considered as a middle-income country, but as a low-income country,” Ghodsi told TRT World.

In December 2022, the minister of petroleum warned that Iran should attract $240 billion investment in its oil and gas sector so that it doesn’t become an official energy importer in the next eight years.

[...]

Iran had been feeling the twinge of gas shortage long before the chilling winter hit. With sanctions blocking investment in the country’s sclerotic refineries, natural gas production was scant and power plants were instructed to burn Mazut, a low-quality heavy fuel oil, as their propelling energy. Experts have long been warning about the dire environmental impacts of widespread Mazut use.

Ali Dadpay, an associate professor of finance at the University of Dallas, warns the consequences of this strategy are multi-pronged and long-lasting. “There are many consequences, from increasing public mistrust of the government to environmental damage. The Islamic Republic is not considered a failed state yet, but it is becoming one that fails to govern and correct its mistakes.”
Iran har världens näst största gasreserver - efter Ryssland. Ändå befinner sig landet i en energikris då det saknar teknik och pengar för att utvinna gasen. Precis som Putin räknade Iran med att gasen skulle kuva Europa. Av detta blev intet. Är Ryssland på väg åt samma håll?

Neither China Nor Iran Will Get What They Want From Their Relationship
The Diplomat skrev:However, Xi’s words obscure potential difficulties that the Chinese may face. One is the imbalance in the relationship between the two countries. Economically, the current state of affairs benefits the Chinese more than Iran. This is especially notable when it comes to oil sales in the post-JCPOA period. Since the reimposition of sanctions, Iran’s ability to sell its primary export has become more limited. Increasingly, Iran has had to rely on Chinese purchases, which worked to China’s advantage by letting it purchase Iranian oil for cheaper than the global market price.

The disparity between the two has not gone unnoticed in Tehran. Not only do some in the regime fear becoming too dependent on China, but wider public opinion is also skeptical.
Kina är en mästare på att exploatera pariastater som Iran och Ryssland. Varför skulle Kina vilja hjälpa dem mer än nödvändigt?

US reaction to balloon ‘absurd and hysterical’, says top Chinese diplomat
The Guardian skrev:Wang also said China was preparing to table a position paper on Ukraine that would underline the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty. It would also state that nuclear war must never be fought, but Wang said that hyping security threats elevated the risk of miscalculation. He said China opposed the cold-war mentality and blocs.

The paper would say “legitimate security concerns had to be taken seriously”, he said, in a reference to Moscow’s concerns about the possible expansion of Nato into neighbouring Ukraine.

[...]

He hinted at the possibility of weaning Europe away from the US position on Ukraine. “Our friends in Europe should think calmly about how to bring peace in [Ukraine] and how to manifest its strategic autonomy.”
Exempelvis kan Ryssland tvingas avsäga sig den ockuperade halvön för att stärka Kinas anspråk på Taiwan...
Användarens profilbild
dr Cassandra Nojdh
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Putin fortsätter med att försöka destabilisera Moldavien, och på sikt öppna en andra front mot Ukraina.
We want Russia to come, say Moldova protesters

Transnistrien gick inte att använda (resterna av den 14 gardesarmén vill inte slåss)

Då får man försöka iscensätta en modern variant av Pragkuppen. Läs på om hur Stalins hantlangare genomförde denna 1948, så förstår ni hur detta ska gå till enligt den ryska handboken. Skillnaden mot nu var att kommunisterna 1948 lyckats infiltrera viktiga delar av den tjeckoslovakiska statsapparaten. I Moldavien får det putinistiska partiet SOR tills vidare bussa ihop demonstranter, betalade med ryska pengar. Det var något som användes även i Prag, då var det fackföreningarna (som kontrollerades av kommunisterna) som fick spela den rollen. En taktik som användes även av Rumäniens blodige kommunistiske diktator Nicolae Ceaușescu. Men tills slut gick det ju inte.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
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Ukrenergo: Situation with Ukraine's energy infrastructure has become more stable
The Kyiv Independent skrev:Recently, many oblasts in Ukraine have not had energy consumption limits. However, Ukrenergo warned that the situation can change and mass blackouts can happen again.

According to Ukrenergo, a portion of the Ukrainian energy system is currently inaccessible due to the fact that the sites are under Russian occupation, including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. In addition, many of Ukraine's wind and solar plants are located in the currently occupied territories of the south.
Trots upprepade ryska attacker mot energianläggningar i Ukraina har läget stabiliserats. Tyvärr är dock en stor del av energiproduktionen under ockupation.

Meat Prices Reach News Highs In Iran, Consumption Down By 50 Percent
Iran International skrev:Iran's currency rial on Sunday dropped to an all-time low of 490,000 to the US dollar.

Regarding fish, he said most is exported because of the drop in the value of national currency making exports more profitable, and little domestic demand for it.

Rasouli further noted that some of the meat production units in Iran have shut down, adding that "out of 700 meat packing companies, only 120 are active and 20% of them have closed down last year."
Det går inte lika bra för Iran. Nu har mördarregimen bara ett kort kvar att spela ut: Iran enriched uranium to 84 percent — but can it make a nuclear bomb?
The Hill skrev:A new additional concern for officials is that the Russian military may slip Iran a critical mass or two of 90 percent enriched uranium, as China did to jump-start Pakistan’s program in the early 1980s. Moscow’s historical record against such proliferation has been exemplary. But the Ukraine war and Iran’s supply of drones to Russia may prompt some elements to give Tehran a special “thank you.”
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