Moderatorer: Jourmaster, Infomaster
Tror det bland annat var LNG-fartyg som låg för lossning som räknades in i dessa procent över 100.
Putin har berövat det ryska folket dess framtid. Rysk gas kan inte längre hitta köpare och rysk olja måste säljas med kraftig rabatt.Bloomberg skrev:It was estimated in 2017 that $100 billion had already been invested in the development of gas reserves on Russia’s Yamal Peninsula, most of which were tied to Europe through pipelines, including those running beneath the Baltic Sea linking Russia to Germany. That figure was expected to double by 2025. Much of that investment now looks redundant.
[...]
Russia’s oil companies have succeeded in diverting deliveries of crude shunned by traditional European buyers, thanks in very large part to the thirst of Indian refiners for cheap feedstock. But the diversion has come at a huge cost to Russia and its oil industry. Big discounts, which appear to have been as high as $35 a barrel, equivalent to a 40% price cut, have been required to penetrate the Indian market.
[...]
In the past decade, Russia has begun to look east for new markets for its gas and the Power of Siberia gas pipeline now carries the fuel to China. But this gas comes from new deposits, more than 1,300 miles east and 600 miles south of the Yamal fields that used to supply Europe, but now sit underused. Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom PJSC put the official cost of Power of Siberia and its associated gas fields at $55 billion. An independent assessment came up with a figure almost twice as large — an investment, it argues, that will never yield a return.
[...]
It would like to supply India, another rapidly growing nation with vast and rising energy needs. But piping natural gas to India will be even more difficult than getting it to China. The route would either have to cross some of the highest mountains in the world, or pass through Afghanistan and Pakistan. Either route would cross several other countries, making construction and operation more costly than the a link between two nations with shared borders.
Väst förefaller sakna en plan för hur kriget ska sluta. Däremot kan Ryssland förstås inte vinna ett utnötningskrig mot väst. Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 8 953 enheter, varav 1 661 stridsvagnar. Här är alla tresiffriga förluster:WSJ skrev:Anna Wieslander, director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank, said she is skeptical that Western allies have settled on a clear strategy of scaling up weapons deliveries to help Ukraine achieve a clear set of war aims. “This is a very transformative period in the conflict. But to me, the reactions from Western capitals have been merely tactical so far,” she said. “We lack a common vision about how the war should end and how these deliveries fit into that vision.”
Polen bekräftar återigen att landet har försett Ukraina med äldre Mig-29:or. Samtidigt är det tyst om Dassault Mirage 2000, åtminstone från officiellt håll.Ukrinform skrev:If a decision on sending F-16 fighters to Ukraine is approved, Poland will act in "full coordination" with its allies.
[...]
"And just as it happened a few months ago with MiG-29 aircraft, any other aircraft assistance [to Ukraine] will be coordinated, implemented and, possibly, transferred together with other NATO member states. We will act in full coordination here," Morawiecki emphasized.
[...]
As reported, Ukraine seeks to obtain modern fighters – F-16 or F-15 of the US Air Force or their European analogs, German Tornado or Swedish Gripen – to replace its Soviet-era aircraft.
Kalla inte högerreaktionären Netanyahu för "Bibi". Det gör bara hans allierade. Som den här mannen:
När, yttrandefrihet har väl aldrig stått särskilt högt i kurs hos de där gossarna. Högst begripligt att Netanyahu ser Orbanien som en lyckad samhällsmodell.Eronews skrev:"Stating that the burning of a sacred book is part of freedom of speech is just plain stupidity," Szijjarto said, adding that “perhaps they (Sweden) should act differently than that" if they want to secure Ankara's backing.
Och så får man inte göra sådana här uttalanden: Comment of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine regarding the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflictUkrainas utreikesministerium skrev:Den 31 januari kallades den ungerske ambassadören i Ukraina Istvan Ijdjarto till Ukrainas utrikesministerium, som uttryckte en stark protest i samband med de nyligen nedsättande uttalandena från Ungerns premiärminister Viktor Orbán om Ukraina.
Det framhölls för den ungerske diplomaten att den antiukrainska retoriken, som har hörts av den ungerska ledningen under lång tid, är absolut oacceptabel och orsakar allvarlig skada på relationerna mellan Ukraina och Ungern.
Den ungerska sidan uppmanades att stoppa denna negativa trend för att undvika irreparable konsekvenser för relationerna mellan de två länderna.
Det betonades att Ukraina å sin sida är redo att utveckla konstruktiva goda grannförbindelser med Ungern.
(texten ovan är maskinöversatt)
Kroatiens president har i huvudsak ceremoniella uppgifter och verkar ligga i strid med landets regering om politiken gentemot Ukraina.AP skrev:NATO-member Croatia’s president on Monday criticized Western nations for supplying Ukraine with heavy tanks and other weapons in its campaign against invading Russian forces, saying those arms deliveries will only prolong the war.
Zoran Milanovic told reporters in the Croatian capital that it’s “mad” to believe that Russia can be defeated in a conventional war.
“I am against sending any lethal arms there,” Milanovic said. “It prolongs the war.”
“What is the goal? Disintegration of Russia, change of the government? There is also talk of tearing Russia apart. This is mad,” he added.
Milanovic won the presidential election in Croatia in 2019 as a left-leaning liberal candidate, a counterpoint to the conservative government currently in power in the European Union and NATO-member state. But he has since made a turn to populist nationalism and criticized Western policies toward Russia as well as the Balkans.
Milanovic has built a reputation of being pro-Russian, which he has repeatedly denied. Yet in recent months, he has openly opposed the admission of Finland and Sweden into NATO as well as the training of Ukrainian troops in Croatia as part of EU aid to the embattled country.
Enligt Putins propagandakloak har Ungerns utrikesminister nominerat Erdogan till Nobels fredspris. Han skulle göra sällskap med bland annat Abiy Ahmed.TASS skrev:Hungary proposes to nominate Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the Nobel Peace Prize for his mediation efforts to settle the conflict in Ukraine, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said during a press conference after a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu in Budapest Tuesday.
"Turkey is the only nation so far that has been successfully mediating in negotiations" on the settlement of the situation in Ukraine," Szijjarto said.
Samtidigt minskar korruptionen i Ukraina, trots pågående krig - eller kanske tack vare detta. Kriget är ett gyllene tillfälle att rensa ut det sovjetiska arvet:Bloomberg skrev:Hungary dropped four places to 77th in the watchdog’s global Corruption Perceptions Index, which was published on Tuesday. The nation led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban is five places below fellow EU member Bulgaria and tied with Burkina Faso, among others, in the 180-nation rankings.
Bra att Zelenskyj inte skonar sina kompisar!DN skrev:Ukrainsk säkerhetstjänst har genomfört flera räder mot vad som beskrivs som korrupta tjänstemän och ryska agenter. Bland annat anklagas chefen för skattemyndigheten i Kiev för miljonbedrägeri.
[...]
Även affärsmannen Igor Kolomojskyjs bostad genomsöktes av säkerhetspolisen. Han anklagas för att ha förskingrat tullavgifter och är sedan tidigare belagd med sanktioner av USA för inblandning i korruption. Kolomojskyj, som tidigare stöttat president Volodymyr Zelenskyjs politiska karriär, nekar till brott.
[...]
I slutet av januari tvingades flera medlemmar i regeringen lämna sina uppdrag efter korruptionsanklagelser. Även en rad guvernörer rensades ut. Tidigare i veckan sade president Zelenskyj att fler åtgärder är att vänta.
Dessutom föreslår Georgien att en eventuell fredsuppgörelse mellan Ukraina och Ryssland ska inkludera en befrielse av landets ryskockuperade territorier.Bloomberg skrev:Georgia’s president said Russia must be required to abandon its nearly 15-year-long occupation of her nation’s territory as part of an eventual peace deal to end the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.
“Russia has to learn where its borders are,” President Salome Zourabichvili said in an interview in the capital, Tbilisi. “The Georgian issues should be on the table because nobody should think that this war can be resolved without Russia retreating from all the occupied territories” in the region, she said.
[...]
Russia sent tanks and troops to within 20 miles of Tbilisi during a brief war with Georgia in 2008 over two secessionist areas that the Kremlin later recognized as independent, marking the first time it unilaterally redrew the borders of states that emerged from the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia has stationed its military in Abkhazia and South Ossetia since then, occupying about of fifth of Georgian territory that remains internationally recognized as part of the Caucasus republic.
[...]
French-born Zourabichvili’s criticisms of Russia put her at odds with Georgia’s government, which has been careful to avoid antagonizing Putin over his invasion of Ukraine.
[...]
Saakashvili was detained in October 2021 after entering Georgia for the first time since stepping down at the end of his presidency in 2013. He fled abroad when the ruling Georgian Dream party founded by his billionaire rival Bidzina Ivanishvili, the country’s richest man, accused him of abuse of power. The government says he crossed into Georgia illegally.
Hur kan en nation vara så apatisk som det ryska?Atlantic Council skrev:According to research conducted by Russia’s internationally respected independent pollster, the Levada Center, Russian public support for the war remained above 70% throughout 2022. Speaking to Germany publication Der Spiegel in early 2023, Levada Center scientific director Lev Gudkov observed that mounting evidence of the atrocities taking place in Ukraine had made virtually no impact on Russian public opinion. “The Russians have little compassion for the Ukrainians. Almost no one here talks about the fact that people are being killed in Ukraine.”
Much of the available evidence supports these poll findings and points to a remarkable absence of empathy. Millions of Ukrainians have friends and family in Russia. Many report being shocked by the lack of compassion they have encountered since the start of the invasion. Rather than sympathy or concern, they have been confronted by cold indifference, outright denials, or pro-Kremlin propaganda tropes.
The hundreds of thousands of Russians who fled the country over the past year have not staged any major anti-war rallies while in exile, despite no longer being subject to draconian Kremlin restrictions. Inside Russia itself, there have been no significant protests since the first weeks of the war. The contrast provided by mass anti-government rallies over the past twelve months in other repressive dictatorships such as China and Iran has cast the silence of the Russian population in an even more unfavorable light.
Enkelt! Ryssland har alltid varit en diktatur. Först under kejsardömet, sedan efter Kerenskij-regeringens kaotiska månader mellan den sk. februarirevolutionen 1917 och Lenins statskupp samma år (lögnaktigt kallad oktoberrevolutionen), därefter under kommunistpartiets och Stalins diktatur, och nu - efter Jeltsin-årens kaos (som blev mer utdraget är Kerenskijs eftersom det inte rådde världskrig då) - under Putins fascistiska diktatur.Enceladus skrev: ↑torsdag 02 februari 2023 1:43 Europe’s last empire: Putin’s Ukraine war exposes Russia’s imperial identity
Hur kan en nation vara så apatisk som det ryska?Atlantic Council skrev:According to research conducted by Russia’s internationally respected independent pollster, the Levada Center, Russian public support for the war remained above 70% throughout 2022. Speaking to Germany publication Der Spiegel in early 2023, Levada Center scientific director Lev Gudkov observed that mounting evidence of the atrocities taking place in Ukraine had made virtually no impact on Russian public opinion. “The Russians have little compassion for the Ukrainians. Almost no one here talks about the fact that people are being killed in Ukraine.”
Much of the available evidence supports these poll findings and points to a remarkable absence of empathy. Millions of Ukrainians have friends and family in Russia. Many report being shocked by the lack of compassion they have encountered since the start of the invasion. Rather than sympathy or concern, they have been confronted by cold indifference, outright denials, or pro-Kremlin propaganda tropes.
The hundreds of thousands of Russians who fled the country over the past year have not staged any major anti-war rallies while in exile, despite no longer being subject to draconian Kremlin restrictions. Inside Russia itself, there have been no significant protests since the first weeks of the war. The contrast provided by mass anti-government rallies over the past twelve months in other repressive dictatorships such as China and Iran has cast the silence of the Russian population in an even more unfavorable light.
Och det gick ju bra så långt. Nu väntar man förstås bara på "Sagan om konungens återkomst" - 2024. Vem det är behöver jag väl inte säga.Hungary Today, Obans propagandakloak skrev:As Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó said before the Israeli elections, “a stable Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu and a mid-term election victory for the US Republican Party would be a hopeful and encouraging development for peace in the Middle East.”
En av trådens skribenter kan möjligtvis känna sig träffad, men budskapet riktar sig mot inflytelserika makthavare.Garry Kasparov skrev:After a year of Russia's total war on Ukraine, we still see articles and statements from western analysts & officials who were wrong about everything. Why are they still being published, or in decision-making positions? Why not replace them with people who were right?
From RAND authors to the Pentagon, people who said Russia was too strong, Ukraine too weak, weapon aid would be a waste, etc., are still promoting a mantra of self-deterrence when it's clear Putin will not stop until he's stopped.
The US admin still refuses to state that its end goal is complete Ukrainian victory. Austin's stance is impeccable, but he's not in charge. You can't have a strategy without clear objectives. You cannot have a roadmap if you don't know where you're going.
EU leaders are still talking to Putin, talking about Russia "returning to the fold of nations". This requires clarification. A free and accountable Russia may return some day, but Putin cannot. Stop throwing lifelines to a war criminal and a terrorist regime.
Så bra då. Då behöver vi inte tänka - det finns bara en riktig åsikt. Som i Ryssland, ungefär. Ärligt talat tror jag inte att den gamle schackspelaren är så intresserad av just Ukraina, hans främsta önskan är förstås - givet hans politiska historia - att sparka omkull Putin-regimen.Enceladus skrev: ↑torsdag 02 februari 2023 23:25 Garri Kasparov har skrivit ett nytt inlägg om kriget:
En av trådens skribenter kan möjligtvis känna sig träffad, men budskapet riktar sig mot inflytelserika makthavare.Garry Kasparov skrev:After a year of Russia's total war on Ukraine, we still see articles and statements from western analysts & officials who were wrong about everything. Why are they still being published, or in decision-making positions? Why not replace them with people who were right?
From RAND authors to the Pentagon, people who said Russia was too strong, Ukraine too weak, weapon aid would be a waste, etc., are still promoting a mantra of self-deterrence when it's clear Putin will not stop until he's stopped.
The US admin still refuses to state that its end goal is complete Ukrainian victory. Austin's stance is impeccable, but he's not in charge. You can't have a strategy without clear objectives. You cannot have a roadmap if you don't know where you're going.
EU leaders are still talking to Putin, talking about Russia "returning to the fold of nations". This requires clarification. A free and accountable Russia may return some day, but Putin cannot. Stop throwing lifelines to a war criminal and a terrorist regime.
Någon känner sig visst träffad av Kasparovs inlägg! Här är en annan artikel av samma författare:dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 02 februari 2023 23:31 Däremot försöker Enceladus-kollektivet som vanligt smeta på mig åsikter jag aldrig uttryckt. Var och en får själv värdera det som står i det jag refererat. Nejvisst nej, det finns ju bara en "riktig" åsikt. Då behövs ju inte det.
Varför envisas skribenten med att referera till rysk propaganda som uppenbarligen inte har något med verkligheten att göra? Sedan har skribenten mage att kalla neutrala indier för putinister!Samuel Charap skrev:Once deterrence fails and a war begins, the Ukrainian armed forces will find themselves in desperate circumstances almost immediately. Ukraine does not have anywhere near enough forces to credibly defend against all the potential avenues of attack, which means it would have to choose between defending a select set of fixed strong points—ceding control of other areas—or maneuvering to engage Russian forces that outnumber them. The line of conflict in the Donbass will be but one of many fronts. The Ukrainian fortifications there may well look like a modern-day Maginot Line: prepared for a frontal attack that may never come and bypassed by the mobile forces of an adversary with more advanced aircraft and more mobile land forces.
[...]
In short, the military balance between Russia and Ukraine is so lopsided in Moscow’s favor that any assistance Washington might provide in coming weeks would be largely irrelevant in determining the outcome of a conflict should it begin. Russia’s advantages in capacity, capability, and geography combine to pose insurmountable challenges for Ukrainian forces tasked with defending their country. The second argument for aid—changing the course of the war—thus does not hold water.
[...]
In normal times, there are many good reasons for the United States to provide military support to Ukraine. But these are not normal times. Military assistance now will at best be marginal in affecting the outcome of the crisis. It might be morally justified to help a U.S. partner at risk of aggression. But given the scale of the potential threat to Ukraine and its forces, the most effective way Washington can help is to work on finding a diplomatic solution.
Enceladus-kollektivets fantasier har tydligen lättat fullständigt från verkligheten. Artiklar i välrenommerade amerikanska medier är inte "rysk propaganda", det är bara struntprat som Enceladus-kollektivet slängt omkring sig åtskilliga gånger. Att det som sägs där inte passar Enceladus-kollektivet "verklighet" kan jag tyvärr inte göra något åt.Enceladus skrev: ↑torsdag 02 februari 2023 23:38Någon känner sig visst träffad av Kasparovs inlägg! Här är en annan artikel av samma författare:dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 02 februari 2023 23:31 Däremot försöker Enceladus-kollektivet som vanligt smeta på mig åsikter jag aldrig uttryckt. Var och en får själv värdera det som står i det jag refererat. Nejvisst nej, det finns ju bara en "riktig" åsikt. Då behövs ju inte det.
The West’s Weapons Won’t Make Any Difference to Ukraine
Varför envisas skribenten med att referera till rysk propaganda som uppenbarligen inte har något med verkligheten att göra? Sedan har skribenten mage att kalla neutrala indier för putinister!Samuel Charap skrev:Once deterrence fails and a war begins, the Ukrainian armed forces will find themselves in desperate circumstances almost immediately. Ukraine does not have anywhere near enough forces to credibly defend against all the potential avenues of attack, which means it would have to choose between defending a select set of fixed strong points—ceding control of other areas—or maneuvering to engage Russian forces that outnumber them. The line of conflict in the Donbass will be but one of many fronts. The Ukrainian fortifications there may well look like a modern-day Maginot Line: prepared for a frontal attack that may never come and bypassed by the mobile forces of an adversary with more advanced aircraft and more mobile land forces.
[...]
In short, the military balance between Russia and Ukraine is so lopsided in Moscow’s favor that any assistance Washington might provide in coming weeks would be largely irrelevant in determining the outcome of a conflict should it begin. Russia’s advantages in capacity, capability, and geography combine to pose insurmountable challenges for Ukrainian forces tasked with defending their country. The second argument for aid—changing the course of the war—thus does not hold water.
[...]
In normal times, there are many good reasons for the United States to provide military support to Ukraine. But these are not normal times. Military assistance now will at best be marginal in affecting the outcome of the crisis. It might be morally justified to help a U.S. partner at risk of aggression. But given the scale of the potential threat to Ukraine and its forces, the most effective way Washington can help is to work on finding a diplomatic solution.
Är första världskriget verkligen ett bra exempel på rysk uthållighet?Samuel Charap skrev:For example, this dynamic appears to have contributed to the length of World War I in Europe. A stalemate on the Western front in 1917 meant that the belligerents, if they were looking at the record on the battlefield, should have agreed that their prospects for victory were roughly even. Instead, both sides appeared to be optimistic about their ability to gain by continuing to fight. The British and French were unwilling to negotiate that winter in part because they hoped that U.S. entry into the war would break the stalemate. Germany believed that, with an end to fighting on the Eastern front after it signed a peace treaty with Russia, redeployed German forces would make a breakthrough in the west. This mutual optimism may have been a factor that inhibited negotiations in late 1917 and early 1918.
Står var och en fritt att värdera det. WW1 var en komplex kedja av händelser som jag inte har för avsikt att analysera. Enceladus-kollektivet får väl fråga artikelförfattaren.Enceladus skrev: ↑torsdag 02 februari 2023 23:52 Här är ett citat från artikeln som skribenten refererade till:
Är första världskriget verkligen ett bra exempel på rysk uthållighet?Samuel Charap skrev:For example, this dynamic appears to have contributed to the length of World War I in Europe. A stalemate on the Western front in 1917 meant that the belligerents, if they were looking at the record on the battlefield, should have agreed that their prospects for victory were roughly even. Instead, both sides appeared to be optimistic about their ability to gain by continuing to fight. The British and French were unwilling to negotiate that winter in part because they hoped that U.S. entry into the war would break the stalemate. Germany believed that, with an end to fighting on the Eastern front after it signed a peace treaty with Russia, redeployed German forces would make a breakthrough in the west. This mutual optimism may have been a factor that inhibited negotiations in late 1917 and early 1918.
Kofman gör en annan bedömning, d.v.s. att Ukraina har tiden på sin sida. Men Ukrainas långsiktiga fördel förutsätter ett kontinuerligt stöd från väst:dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 02 februari 2023 23:54 Står var och en fritt att värdera det. WW1 var en komplex kedja av händelser som jag inte har för avsikt att analysera. Enceladus-kollektivet får väl fråga artikelförfattaren.
---UnHerd skrev:In a protracted war, who has the advantage?
Ukraine has significant advantages. And most importantly, it’s backed by a coalition of states with basically a massive defence industrial capacity. But that only speaks to potential and spreadsheets don’t fight […] In terms of manpower quality, over time Ukraine may have a real issue; hence, I raise training as something that really needs to be scaled up rather than the conversations about which German tank to send.
Is this war going to become a waiting game for the West?
If at any point Western countries really let their foot off the gas, to use a colloquialism, it could very rapidly result in stalemate.
Enligt Kofman det ytterst osannolikt att kriget slutar med samma gränser som den 23 februari 2022. Dessa gränser är helt enkelt onaturliga:Lennart Petersen skrev: ↑lördag 23 juli 2022 2:14Det låter ju som att helgardera på stryktipset.dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑fredag 22 juli 2022 19:27 Pensionerade överstelöjtnanten Jörgen Elfving skisserar några möjliga scenarier. Jörgen Elfving har varit underrättelseofficer och vet en del om hur ryssen gör.
Sex scenarion – Så kan kriget sluta
Jag tror nog att 1,2,3 och 6 är mindre sannolika men inte osannolika.
4 och 5 ganska sannolika, man förhandlar fram en fred där U avstår från Krim och de så kallade folkrepublikerna
---UnHerd skrev:Will Ukraine push to retake Crimea?
There is one point where this war is not going to end. Its February 23rd lines, where it began. That is quite clear. It’s neither a viable political boundary nor a geographical boundary nor any sort of boundary. Nor can you picture the Ukrainian President basically getting to February 23rd lines, which are minimum interim goals and saying: ‘all right, we should talk about a settlement for the rest of this territory rather than trying to retake it’.
Kofman gör återigen en annan bedömning:dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑tisdag 31 januari 2023 8:51 Eventuella franska plans beväpning är ett problem, men ett mindre sådant i sammanhanget. Det stora problemet är hur nya stridsplan praktiskt ska kunna tillföras Ukrainas flygvapen. Att ta in plan i nedmonterat skick är möjligt, men knappast i stor skala. Dessutom rör det sig här om för ukrainska flygtekniker helt okända flygplantyper, som de inte kan skruva ihop igen utan omfattande utbildning eller hjälp på plats av Nato-tekniker. Det senare torde vara uteslutet. Att transportera stridsplan i hopsatt och flygfärdigt skick landvägen - från polska gränsen till närmaste ukrainska flygbas - är naturligtvis inte omöjligt, men komplicerat och dessutom sårbart för luftangrepp.
UnHerd skrev:Will F-16 fighter jets be the next addition to Ukraine’s call for armaments?
Eventually, Ukraine will probably have to switch to some kind of Western-produced aircraft. It’s just a matter of when and whether it should be right now or not. […] But I would definitely put F16s much lower down the list of priorities. I find that the things that folks are talking about are the big shiny items. But none of these things are going to make that big of a difference in the war relative to the aggregate weight of other things being done.
[...]
Are there Western soldiers in Ukraine, unofficially training Ukrainian soldiers?
If they are, they’re probably British. I think the likelihood of that is very high.
Gör en annan bedömning än vem då?Enceladus skrev: ↑fredag 03 februari 2023 22:39 Här är en färsk intervju med en militäranalytiker som sällan har haft fel hittills: Michael Kofman: Is the Ukraine War headed for stalemate?
Kofman gör en annan bedömning, d.v.s. att Ukraina har tiden på sin sida. Men Ukrainas långsiktiga fördel förutsätter ett kontinuerligt stöd från väst:dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 02 februari 2023 23:54 Står var och en fritt att värdera det. WW1 var en komplex kedja av händelser som jag inte har för avsikt att analysera. Enceladus-kollektivet får väl fråga artikelförfattaren.
Artikelförfattaren Samuel Charap som skribenten av någon anledning refererade till. Har skribenten läst hans tidigare verk om kriget?dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑fredag 03 februari 2023 22:44Gör en annan bedömning än vem då?Enceladus skrev: ↑fredag 03 februari 2023 22:39 Här är en färsk intervju med en militäranalytiker som sällan har haft fel hittills: Michael Kofman: Is the Ukraine War headed for stalemate?
Kofman gör en annan bedömning, d.v.s. att Ukraina har tiden på sin sida. Men Ukrainas långsiktiga fördel förutsätter ett kontinuerligt stöd från väst:dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑torsdag 02 februari 2023 23:54 Står var och en fritt att värdera det. WW1 var en komplex kedja av händelser som jag inte har för avsikt att analysera. Enceladus-kollektivet får väl fråga artikelförfattaren.
Citera då rätt person, eftersom det inte var jag som uttryckte de åsikter Enceladus-kollektivet av någon anledning försöker smeta på mig. Referenserna till de två artiklarna i Washington Post lämnade jag för att jag tyckte att de var intressanta att läsa. Sedan kan man har olika åsikter om innehållet förstås. Några sådana har jag inte uttryckt.Enceladus skrev: ↑fredag 03 februari 2023 22:48Artikelförfattaren Samuel Charap som skribenten av någon anledning refererade till. Har skribenten läst hans tidigare verk om kriget?dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: ↑fredag 03 februari 2023 22:44Gör en annan bedömning än vem då?Enceladus skrev: ↑fredag 03 februari 2023 22:39 Här är en färsk intervju med en militäranalytiker som sällan har haft fel hittills: Michael Kofman: Is the Ukraine War headed for stalemate?
Kofman gör en annan bedömning, d.v.s. att Ukraina har tiden på sin sida. Men Ukrainas långsiktiga fördel förutsätter ett kontinuerligt stöd från väst:
Innehållande kollektivet favoritfloskler "envisas skribenten" och "rysk propaganda".varför envisas skribenten med att referera till rysk propaganda som uppenbarligen inte har något med verkligheten att göra?
Vilken annan bedömning? Brittisk eller annan Nato-personal i Ukraina? Ja, det har spekulerats mycket om detta, mest i den ryska propagandan, faktiskt. Men det förblir förstås spekulationer. Faktum är att det av formuleringen inte går att avgöra vad Kofman avser med "the likelihood of that is very high".Enceladus skrev: ↑fredag 03 februari 2023 22:39 Kofman gör återigen en annan bedömning:
UnHerd skrev:Will F-16 fighter jets be the next addition to Ukraine’s call for armaments?
Eventually, Ukraine will probably have to switch to some kind of Western-produced aircraft. It’s just a matter of when and whether it should be right now or not. […] But I would definitely put F16s much lower down the list of priorities. I find that the things that folks are talking about are the big shiny items. But none of these things are going to make that big of a difference in the war relative to the aggregate weight of other things being done.
[...]
Are there Western soldiers in Ukraine, unofficially training Ukrainian soldiers?
If they are, they’re probably British. I think the likelihood of that is very high.