Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Germany in talks with allies over Polish push for Patriot deployment to Ukraine
Reuters skrev:Germany said on Friday it was discussing with allies Poland's request that German Patriot air defence units be sent to Ukraine, after NATO's chief suggested the military alliance might not oppose such a move.
Både Tyskland och Polen föreslår nu att Ukraina ska få Natos flaggskepp för luftförsvar. Det återstår dock att se om försvarsalliansen godkänner förslaget.

The red line: Biden and Xi’s secret Ukraine talks revealed
The Spectator skrev:With Biden and Xi’s joint condemnation of the threat of nukes at Bali earlier this month, the so-called ‘track two’ understandings of March have become a ‘track one’ public policy. Thanks to Wang’s shuttle diplomacy, Nato and China have effectively aligned on not escalating the Ukraine-Russia conflict, according to the Chinese source. Over a series of meetings with Nato leadership since early September, Wang pledged to use China’s considerable leverage in Moscow to dissuade Putin from using nukes, while in return Nato has affirmed that they would not provide strategic weapons to Ukraine.
Tydligen ingrep Kina när Polen och USA var på väg att överlämna sovjetiska MiG-29-stridsplan till Ukraina. Däremot fick Nordmakedonien överlåta Su-25-plan.

Britain sending helicopters to Ukraine for first time - Ben Wallace
BBC skrev:Three former British military Sea Kings will be provided and the first has already arrived, the BBC understands.
Även UK levererar exotiska luftfarkoster till Ukraina. Det blir spännande att få veta hur dessa helikoptrar används.

Stories of Ukrainian resistance revealed after Kherson pullout
CNN skrev: “I have a friend with whom we would drive around the city, looking for gatherings of Russian soldiers,” he says. “We checked their patrol routes and then gave all the information to guys on the frontline and they knew who to pass onto next.”
Vidare har Ukraina ett enormt informationsövertag på slagfältet.

Zelenskyy vows Ukraine will withstand Russian attacks on power networks
Financial Times skrev:“I understand that everyone is confused by the situation and what will happen to Crimea. If someone is ready to offer us a way regarding the de-occupation of Crimea by non-military means, I will only be in favour,” said Zelenskyy. “If the solution [does not involve] de-occupation and [Crimea] is part of the Russian Federation, no one should waste their time on this. It’s a waste of time.”
Ukrainas krav för fredsförhandlingar är glasklara.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Iranian advisers killed aiding Russians in Crimea, says Kyiv
The Guardian skrev:Ukraine’s top security official has confirmed that Iranian military advisers have been killed in Crimea, and warned that any other Iranians on occupied Ukrainian territory in support of Moscow’s invasion would also be targeted.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, said Iranians were present in Crimea to help Russia pilot the Shahed-136 armed drones supplied by the Tehran government, but did not say how many Ukraine had killed.

[...]

Benjamin Netanyahu’s political comeback in elections this month complicates the picture further as he has a warm relationship with Vladimir Putin, but Iran’s involvement on Russia’s side will also affect Israel’s calculations.
Iran sänkte Wales i fotbolls-VM med dubbla mål på tilläggstid. De iranska ockupanterna i Ukraina kunde dessvärre inte fira segern.

Putin Ally Kudrin to Take Yandex Role After President Approves
Bloomberg skrev:Kudrin, a former finance minister who’s worked with Putin since the 1990s and won a reputation as a relative economic liberal, is expected to handle the restructuring and sale of Yandex’s main businesses to a Russian investor and may get options for as much as 5% of that company, they said. Some international businesses would be spun off into a new entity with no ties to Russia.

[...]

Even amid the government crackdown and international sanctions on Russia, Yandex has continued to post strong results, in part because it faced less domestic competition from companies like Google. Revenue rose 46% in the third quarter from a year earlier to 133 billion rubles ($1.9 billion), driven by growth in its search engine, mobility and e-commerce businesses.

However, its financial performance belies the turbulence the company is going through as the Kremlin expands its control over the internet and the West is increasingly suspicious of Russia. Yandex declined to provide any guidance on its outlook in its most recent results, citing uncertainty over the geopolitical situation.
Sökmotorn Yandex, som ibland kallas Rysslands Google, är i färd med att lämna Ryssland på grund av sanktionerna - medelst Putins samarbetspartner.

Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon.
The New York Times skrev:“With every capability we give to Ukraine, and those our allies and partners provide, we work to ensure that they have the right maintenance sustainment packages to support those capabilities over time,” Lt. Cmdr. Daniel Day, a spokesman for the U.S. European Command, said in a statement.

[...]

Both Russia and Ukraine have struggled to meet the demand for artillery ammunition on the front. Russia has turned to North Korea for ordnance, and Ukraine has requested more shells from its allies.
Underhåll är en viktig del av västvärldens stöd till Ukraina. Kan samma sak sägas om Rysslands bidragsgivare? :roll:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25
ISW skrev:An investigation by Forbes’ Ukrainian service revealed the extent of the financial strains that the war in Ukraine has imposed on Russia’s annual budget. Forbes found that Russia has spent $82 billion dollars on the first nine months of the war in Ukraine, amounting to one quarter of its entire 2021 annual budget of $340 billion.[15] The investigation emphasized the impact that mobilization had on military-related expenditures since October and observed that providing for the 300,000 mobilized cost an additional $1.8 billion per month in addition to the increased costs of providing ammunition, equipment, and salaries to mobilized recruits, which in total amounted to a $2.7 billion increase following mobilization.

[...]

Russian leadership may be distributing a document among Russian servicemembers stating that Russia needs to mobilize five million personnel to win the war in Ukraine, an impossible task for the Russian Federation. The Ukrainian General Staff Deputy Chief Oleksiy Hromov stated on November 24 that the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation has prepared a document titled “Conclusion of the War with NATO in Ukraine” and has begun distributing it among Russian servicemembers.[26] The document reportedly identifies shortcomings of the Russian Armed Forces and notes the need for Russia to mobilize five million Russians to win the war in Ukraine.[27] It is unclear whether Russian leadership considers the five million figure a possible target or whether it is an unreachable projected force requirement, reasonable or not, that suggests that they cannot achieve their objectives in Ukraine.
Den ryska mobiliseringen verkar inte vara särskilt hållbar...

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 8 085 enheter, varav 1 513 stridsvagnar - alltifrån 54 uråldriga T-62:or till 6 relativt moderna T-90M:or.
Lennart Petersen
Inlägg: 3087
Blev medlem: söndag 21 augusti 2011 22:53

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Lite från YLE
https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10022465

Någon sammanfattade kortfattat
Ryssland har brist på
A: ammunition
B: soldater
C: och vänner...

Enligt någon amerikansk undersökning kom man till att kriget hittils kostat Ryssland motsvarande 800miljarder kr eller 25% av statsbudgeten.
Då avses direkta kostnader för krigföringen och ovanpå kommer ekonomiska effekter av sanktionerna, exempelvis står all biltillverkning stilla
och exportinkomsterna är klart hämmade. De inkallade värnpliktiga lämnar också efter sig hål i arbetskraften som redan var ett problem med en demografi med allt färre i arbetsför ålder.
Bland de mer märkliga uppgifterna återfinns att man nu skickar iväg kärnvapenmissiler (!) utan kärnladdningar förstås och enda syfte kan vara att Ukraina ska slösa luftvärnseld på dem.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Western sanctions catch up with Russia’s wartime economy
The Washington Post skrev:Recent figures show the situation has worsened considerably since the summer when, buoyed by a steady stream of oil and gas revenue, the Russian economy seemed to stabilize. Figures released by the Finance Ministry last week show a key economic indicator — tax revenue from the non-oil and gas sector — fell 20 percent year in October compared to a year earlier, while the Russian state statistics agency Rosstat reported that retail sales fell 10 percent year on year in September, and cargo turnover fell 7 percent.

[...]

But economists and business executives said the headline GDP figures did not reflect the real state of the Russian economy because the Russian government effectively ended the ruble’s convertibility since the sanctions were imposed. “GDP stopped having any meaning because firstly we don’t know what the real ruble rate is, and secondly if you produce a tank and send it to the front where it is immediately blown up, then it is still considered as value added,” said Milov, who wrote a report explaining the situation for the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies published this month.

[...]

Putin’s announcement in September of a partial troop mobilization dealt an enormous blow to business sentiment. “For many Russian companies the reality of the war sank in,” said Janis Kluge, senior associate at the German Institute for Security and International Affairs. “It became clear that this is going to continue for a long time. Now expectations are much worse than they were over the summer.”
Det går verkligen inte bra för den ryska ekonomin - och värre blir det.

Russian Oil Is Already Trading Far Below Europe’s Proposed Cap
Bloomberg skrev:With European Union diplomats haggling over a price cap on Russian oil, it’s worth remembering that the level they’re discussing will almost certainly be above where the nation’s flagship grade currently trades.

[...]

But anything in that range would be far above the current price of Russia’s flagship Urals grade, according to data provided by Argus Media Ltd., a publisher of physical commodity prices. Urals fell to around $52 a barrel on Thursday at two of the country’s key western export terminals, the firm’s data show.
Just nu handlas rysk olja till rekordstor rabatt. Det är köparens marknad.

Chevron to Resume Venezuela Oil Output as US Eases Sanctions
Bloomberg skrev:The Biden administration granted Chevron Corp. a license to resume oil production in Venezuela after US sanctions halted all drilling activities almost three years ago.

[...]

Oil production in Venezuela has rebounded this year to 679,000 barrels a day, far less than the 2.9 million barrels produced a decade ago. Output slumped following sanctions and mismanagement of oil fields and refineries under the socialist rules of Hugo Chavez and Maduro.
Tidigare isolerade oljeproducenter anses nu vara mindre dåliga alternativ än Ryssland.

Belarus foreign minister Makei dies suddenly - Belta
Reuters skrev:Before the presidential elections and mass anti-government protests in Belarus in 2020, Makei had been one of the initiators of efforts to improve Belarus' relations with the West and had criticised Russia.

However, he abruptly changed his stance after the start of the protests, saying they were inspired by agents of the West.
Utrikesministern i Belarus är död. Det är dock svårt att säga om händelsen får betydande konsekvenser.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 8 114 enheter, varav 1 517 stridsvagnar, 722 AFV:er, 1 764 IFV:er samt 2 007 terrängfordon!
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Exclusive: U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine
Reuters skrev:The Pentagon is considering a Boeing proposal to supply Ukraine with cheap, small precision bombs fitted onto abundantly available rockets, allowing Kyiv to strike far behind Russian lines as the West struggles to meet demand for more arms.

[...]

Although the United States has rebuffed requests for the 185-mile (297km) range ATACMS missile, the GLSDB's 94-mile (150km) range would allow Ukraine to hit valuable military targets that have been out of reach and help it continue pressing its counterattacks by disrupting Russian rear areas.
GLSDB har mindre sprängladdning och räckvidd än ATACMS, men vapnet är mycket billigare. Dessutom skulle Ukraina nå Azovska sjön och delar av Krym. Vapnet tillverkas av Saab i samarbete med Boeing och skulle kunna levereras under våren 2023. Blir detta Ukrainas nästa undervapen? Eller är Hrim redo?

In Ukraine, Bakhmut Becomes a Bloody Vortex for 2 Militaries
The New York Times skrev:“The Russian military is still dealing with unrealistic political demands to show progress,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at C.N.A., a research institute in Arlington, Va. “But given poor quality of available forces and decreasing stocks of artillery ammunition, they are unlikely to be successful, because once again the Russian military appears to be feeding units piecemeal without adequate support.”

[...]

But at this point in the war both armies may find the pace of bombardment hard to sustain. The Russians are reportedly trying to buy munitions from North Korea and Iran. And Ukraine continues to ask for more artillery shells from NATO and other donor countries, even though those nations’ stockpiles are dwindling.

[...]

“Battles like Bakhmut consume forces that could be used elsewhere,” Mr. Kofman said, adding that Russian forces are using people they deem “expendable,” but even so, they cannot afford to waste that much artillery.
Båda sidorna behöver mer ammunition. Vem kan hjälpa mest, västvärlden eller Nordkorea och Iran? :roll:

Enligt Jack Watling från RUSI kan vintern öka gapet ytterligare:
Jack Watling skrev:Shifting to logistics, most military support vehicles are wheeled and both sides are heavily dependent upon commandeered civilian transport for resupply. People exaggerate how big a problem mud is for tanks. But it is a huge problem for wheeled logistics vehicles. 12/17

[...]

The impact on tanks and IFVs therefore is not that they can’t manoeuvre but that it takes longer to resupply them, repair them, and recover them if they get in trouble. That reduces the ability to exploit breaches made in a line and so makes offensive action more costly. 14/17

[...]

So, the winter may see a reduction in large scale offensive action unless there is a collapse somewhere. That does not mean a reduction in fighting, or the levels of ammunition consumption. 17/17
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 8 176 enheter, varav 1 523 stridsvagnar. Således fortsätter avmilitariseringen i oförminskad fart.

‘They grabbed whoever they could’: Putin’s draft puts more strain on Russian businesses
Financial Times skrev:The mobilisation push has created the biggest labour shortage in Russia since 1993, according to a Gaidar Institute study this month. In the survey of business, most respondents said they would be unable to increase production to keep up with demand, while others said they expected production cuts and decline in output quality.

“Simply put, this will mean that we will have fewer healthy, educated and strong people, the ones who create a country’s GDP,” said Vladimir Gimpelson, a labour market economist who has left Moscow for a position in the US. “If economic growth were the government’s priority, then I would call this a disastrous mistake.”

[...]

The conscription and brain drain are also worsening Russia’s population decline. According to Russia’s border guards service, which is part of the FSB security agency, 9.7mn people left the country from July through September, an increase of 1.2mn year on year and nearly double the total in the previous quarter.

Demographers were already predicting a 25 per cent drop in the number of workers aged between 20 and 40 by 2030, compared with the late 2010s, Gimpelson said. This age group is critical for productivity.
Hur länge till kommer affärseliten att stödja Putin?
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

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‘Losing is not an option’: Putin is ‘desperate’ to avoid defeat in Ukraine as anxiety rises in Moscow
CNBC skrev:“Since September, I see a lot of changes [in Russia] and a lot of fears,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and founder and head of political analysis firm R.Politik, told CNBC.

“For the first time since the war started people are beginning to consider the worst-case scenario, that Russia can lose, and they don’t see and don’t understand how Russia can get out from this conflict without being destroyed. People are very anxious, they believe that what is going on is a disaster,” she said Monday.
Sent ska syndaren vakna...

Germany will transfer 14 THeMIS unmanned ground vehicles to Ukraine
Militarnyi skrev:Milrem Robotics, in cooperation with Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, will deliver 14 THeMIS UGVs to Ukraine.

[...]

Unmanned ground vehicles are designed to transport the wounded and clear traffic routes.
Ukrainas arsenal blir alltmer heltäckande.
Lennart Petersen
Inlägg: 3087
Blev medlem: söndag 21 augusti 2011 22:53

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: tisdag 29 november 2022 4:08 [url

Hur länge till kommer affärseliten att stödja Putin?
Spelar nog ingen större roll vad dom tycker. I början av kroget spekulerades det i att de s.k oligarkerna skulle lägga in sina veton på affärsmässiga grunder mot kriget men det vidade sig snart nog att dom helt saknade politiskt inflytande och sitter i knät på Putin som små knähundar.
Ett felsteg och de riskerar fängelse och att få de enorma tillgångarna konfiskerade. Lite säkrare för dem som är utomlands men agenter kan nå dom överallt. Förmögenheterna har i regel skapats på suspekta grunder så det finns ofta nog något att anklaga dem för.
Så hoppas inte på oligarkerna.
Användarens profilbild
dr Cassandra Nojdh
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Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

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Enceladus skrev: tisdag 29 november 2022 4:08 Exclusive: U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine
Reuters skrev:The Pentagon is considering a Boeing proposal to supply Ukraine with cheap, small precision bombs fitted onto abundantly available rockets, allowing Kyiv to strike far behind Russian lines as the West struggles to meet demand for more arms.

[...]

Although the United States has rebuffed requests for the 185-mile (297km) range ATACMS missile, the GLSDB's 94-mile (150km) range would allow Ukraine to hit valuable military targets that have been out of reach and help it continue pressing its counterattacks by disrupting Russian rear areas.
GLSDB har mindre sprängladdning och räckvidd än ATACMS, men vapnet är mycket billigare. Dessutom skulle Ukraina nå Azovska sjön och delar av Krym. Vapnet tillverkas av Saab i samarbete med Boeing och skulle kunna levereras under våren 2023. Blir detta Ukrainas nästa undervapen? Eller är Hrim redo?
Läs mer om GLSDB här: viewtopic.php?p=410066#p410066

Om HRIM-2 här: viewtopic.php?p=408576#p408576
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9695
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Spänningen växer på Krim – ryssar paniksäljer semesterhus
DN skrev:– Sedan dess har officierare och soldater flyttat sina familjer tillbaka till Ryssland. De har försökt sälja sina egendomar värda upp emot en miljon dollar, men marknaden är död, säger personen som vill vara anonym, till tidningen.

[...]

– Ryssarna är oroliga, så vi är på vår vakt. Vi känner till andra partisangrupper, men vi kommunicerar inte av säkerhetsskäl, säger han till Politico.

[...]

Det kan dessutom vara svårt för Ukraina att anfalla över de trånga passagerna som förbinder Krim med Ukrainas fastland. Teoretiskt sätt är det möjligt att för Ukraina att slå Ryssland på Krim, säger Paasikivi – men det förutsätter att styrkorna besegrat Ryssland på andra ställen först.

– Exempelvis måste man ha städat upp Zaporizjzja, så att man kan hålla ryssarna borta. Men å andra sidan: om Ukraina har kommit så långt, då har Ryssland seriösa problem med att försörja sina styrkor på Krim, om inte Krimbron reparerats. Situationen skulle i så fall kunna likna det ryska tillbakadragandet från Cherson.
Ockupanterna lämnar Krym samtidigt som invånarna organiserar en motstånds­rörelse. Det här är inte slutet. Det är inte ens början på slutet. Men det är, kanske, slutet på början av den ryska ockupationen.

Make peace, not war
Meduza skrev:Russia’s ongoing military defeats in Ukraine and the social burden of mobilization are rapidly cooling the public’s support for the war. Meduza has gained access to the results of an opinion poll commissioned by the Kremlin “for internal use only.” According to the study conducted by the Federal Protective Service (FSO), 55 percent of Russians favor peace talks with Ukraine, while only a quarter of the respondents still support continuing the war.

[...]

The FSO’s own polling indicates that Russians’ attitudes about the war have changed. As late as July 2022, only 30 percent of survey respondents favored ending the war by peace negotiations. Comparing the new results to those collected in the summer make the shift obvious:
Tålamodet tryter hos ryska folket. Rysslands ekonomi befinner sig i recession, och det är bara slutet på början.

Russia ready to abandon Zaporizhzhia NPP in exchange for transit of oil and gas through Ukraine
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:A source close to the Kremlin and an interlocutor close to the Russian government, claims that the Russian Federation is ready to quit Zaporizhzhia NPP, but does not plan to completely leave Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Meduza reports that the Kremlin plans to hand over the NPP either to the Ukrainian authorities or to the IAEA.

[...]

The interlocutors claim that both the Kremlin and the government "are ready for an agreement," since "pumping and selling oil and gas is very important for the Russian budget."
Hur går det egentligen för den ryska ekonomin?

Europe Sets Russian Oil at $60 a Barrel: What Changes Now
Bloomberg skrev:After months of planning and negotiations, the biggest tranche of sanctions on Russian oil to date are about to take effect -- how big their impact will be remains uncertain.

On Friday afternoon, European Union officials clinched a deal to cap the price of Russian crude at $60 per barrel. Anyone wanting to access key services that the bloc provides -- especially insurance -- will have to pay that price or less. The same goes for European tankers, especially the giant Greek fleet.

[...]

Chinese authorities are yet to recognize Russian insurance, Russia’s deputy transport minister said last week, however India and Turkey do. An Indian refiner has previously said Russia is insuring its crude shipments.
De övriga länderna i G7-gruppen, d.v.s. USA, UK, Japan och Kanada, följer efter EU och sätter ett pristak på rysk olja på 60 dollar per fat, med oklara följder.

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet lost 15 percent of combat strength since start of war with Ukraine
Meduza skrev:Proekt has traced mentions of at least 12 different ships and boats belonging to the fleet that have been either damaged or sunk. This reduces the fleet’s combat strength by 15 percent.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 8 245 enheter, varav 1 538 stridsvagnar och 12 fartyg. Dessutom fortsätter utnötningen av ryska soldater.
Enceladus
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Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

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Över 100 ryska robotar i anfall mot Ukraina
DN skrev:Delar av en eller flera robotar ska ha fallit ned i norra Moldavien vid gränsen till Ukraina, skriver den moldaviska statliga informationskanalen Prima Sursa Moldavisk polis hittade dem i närheten av staden Briceni, gränskontrollen har stärkts efter händelsen. Bilder visar robotdelarna på ett odlingsfält. Det finns inga uppgifter om att de orsakat några skador.

Delar av Moldavien har också problem med elförsörjningen efter attackerna i Ukraina, enligt Prima Sursa.
De ryska attackerna mot energiinfrastruktur i Ukraina tas inte emot väl av proryska grupper i Moldavien:
Paula Erizanu skrev:Wow. After Moldova's blackout last week, the former pro-Kremlin president Igor Dodon condemned Russia's war in Ukraine. 'It's tragic, because following Russia's shelling of Ukraine, we were left without electricity." And more: "We have to thank Romanians" for selling us energy
Även invånare i Ryssland fryser, men av andra skäl:
ChrisO_wiki skrev:1/ People across Russia are freezing in their homes in temperatures as low as -38°C because essential utility workers have been mobilised – even after the supposed end of mobilisation – and sent to Ukraine, hindering repair and maintenance work at home.
Russia has launched another massive missile attack on Ukraine
MFA of Ukraine skrev:The majority – 60 out of 70 Russian missiles – were shot down. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian missiles in the Poltava region, 15 in the Dnipropetrovsk region, and 9 out of 10 in the Kyiv region.
Har Ukrainas luftförsvar redan blivit så mycket effektivare?

Ukrainska attacker mot flygbaser djupt in i Ryssland
DN skrev:Rådgivaren, Anton Gerashchenko, skriver att ”källor” uppger att de ryska flygplan som skadades var tänkta att användas mot Ukraina i den storskaliga attack som inleddes några timmar senare.

[...]

Uppgifter på sociala medier antyder att av de 27 flygplan som bara från Engels-basen skulle kunnat användas vid måndagens attack var det bara 14 som faktiskt sattes in, på grund av bland annat skador på flygplan och infrastruktur där.

– I så fall är det en ganska kännbar nedsättning av förmågan som man fick till, åtminstone temporärt. En aspekt här är också att det är en nedsättning även av Rysslands förmåga till kärnvapeninsats, vilket är en större och vidare fråga än det operationella i just Ukraina.
Ukrainas preventiva drönarattack kan också förklara varför skadorna efter måndagens ryska robotattack blev mindre än väntat.
Enceladus
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Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

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Drone attack hits oil storage tank at airfield in Russia’s Kursk region
The Guardian skrev:A drone attack has set an oil storage tank on fire at an airfield in Kursk, the Russian region’s governor has said, a day after Ukraine appeared to launch audacious drone attacks on two military airfields deep inside Russian territory.

[...]

The Ukrainian military analyst Serhiy Zgurets said the air force bases hit on Monday were the only facilities in Russia that could fully service bombers used to launch attacks on Ukraine.

“It is still too early to say what is at issue here, but the ability of the armed forces of Ukraine to reach military targets deep in the territory of the Russian Federation has a very symbolic and important meaning,” he wrote on the website of Ukraine’s Espreso TV.
De ukrainska drönarattackerna fortsätter. Har Ukraina äntligen hittat ett sätt att få stopp på de ryska robotattackerna?

Ukrainska styrkor korsade floden: ”Symbolisk milstolpe”
DN skrev:Överstelöjtnant Peter Lidén, som tidigare varit Sveriges försvarsattaché i Ukraina och nu undervisar på Försvarshögskolan, tror att uppgifterna stämmer.

– Det ser ut att vara Carlson-enheten, ett specialförband som har specialiserat sig på spaning med drönare, som nu har lagt ut bilder på när de under lördagen korsade Dnjepr i småbåtar, säger han.

[...]

– Jag tror att ukrainarna är nöjda med att för tillfället gå över och markera med en flagga. De visar att ryssarna inte kan slappna av på andra sidan floden och att Ukraina har en vilja att fortsätta avancera. Det håller ryska förband vaksamma och på spänn.
Ukraina ökar trycket på alla fronter.

Ukraine update: Advances near Svatove and Kreminna show that Ukrainian forces are still on the move
Daily Kos skrev:The biggest change on the map here is that I’m showing Ukraine in control of Chervonopopivka along the P66 highway north of Kreminna. While there has been no official announcement of the liberation of this location, the Ukrainian military on Friday reported that they had repelled a Russian assault on Chervonopopivka, indicating that this area is under the control of Ukrainian forces. Likewise, the military again confirmed Ukrainian control at Ploshchanka with reports of Russian shelling of the area.

[...]

At the same time, Ukraine is reportedly fighting its way through the wooded area south of Kreminna. Reports of action on Friday morning indicated that Ukrainian forces were just 2km outside of the city. There were also indications that the particular Dibrova west of Kreminna (to distinguish it from other Dibrovas, including one only a few kilometers away) is again under Ukrainian control.

The movement toward Svatove and Kreminna hasn’t been the kind of swift action that saw so much of Kharkiv liberated within a few days, but it’s not been too dissimilar from the fighting that saw Lyman and the surrounding area liberated. Manuever and reinforce. Capture a village, secure a route, keep the options open.
Ukraina avancerar mot Svatove och Kreminna. De ryska styrkorna nötas ut förr eller senare, förmodligen innan vintern är över.

Uppgifter: Tjetjensk bloggare i Sverige försvunnen
Aftonbladet skrev:Sedan början av december är Tumso Abdurachmanov försvunnen och går inte att få kontakt med, uppger exilryska tidningen Meduza och andra ryska sajter.

[...]

Abdurachmanov flydde från Tjetjenien 2015 och fick flyktingstatus i Sverige 2021. I februari 2020 utsattes Tumso Abdurachmanov för ett mordförsök i sin lägenhet i Gävle. Han vaknade av ett kraftigt hammarslag mot huvudet, men lyckades övermanna gärningsmannen.

[...]

– Polismyndigheten kan inte bekräfta uppgifterna eller ge ytterligare kommentarer, skriver pressekreterare Sofia Hellqvist vid polisens nationella mediecenter i ett mejl till Aftonbladet.
Hur många ryska agenter finns det på svensk mark?

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 5
ISW skrev:Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Russian military, in concert with the Russian Internal Ministry, is taking steps to launch an electronic database by February 2023 to document the personal details of all servicemen and restrict their movement even when out of uniform.[21]
Det är hög tid att lämna det sjunkande skeppet!
Enceladus
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On east front with Ukrainian troops: Constant shelling, no heat or coffee
The Washington Post skrev:“The enemy just brings in the mobilized in piles, and they just get pushed to the front, without any training,” he said. The Post agreed to withhold Oleh’s surname because he still has family members living under Russian occupation in his home Luhansk region.

“There’s a lot of them,” Oleh said of the Russians. “They just bring them here as meat.”

[...]

“Any failure for them now is devastating, so they’re fighting hard for every little piece,” Tor said. “They fought many months for Lysychansk, and they’re about to lose it.”
Nu när missilerna håller på att ta slut är frågan om kanonfödan också gör det.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6
ISW skrev:Igor Girkin, a former Russian militant commander and prominent critical voice in the Russian milblogger information space, returned to Telegram following a nearly two-month stint in Ukraine and used his return to offer a vitriolic first-hand account of the situation on the frontlines. Girkin posted on Telegram on December 6 to speak on his experiences in Ukraine for the first time since he announced he was leaving to join the Russian army to fight in Ukraine in October.[9] Girkin detailed his multiple and unsuccessful efforts to register and join various units and contentious interactions with Russian and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) commanders and noted that he finally joined a DNR battalion illegally, which allowed him to deploy to the Svatove area in Luhansk Oblast.[10] Girkin concluded that based on his experience on the frontline, it is clear that Russian forces are suffering from a “crisis of strategic planning” due to the fact that troops are relying only on tactical inertia and not cohering around a wider strategic goal.[11] Girkin also noted that the Kremlin will be unsuccessful in igniting protests in Ukraine with its missile campaign against critical energy infrastructure, further noting that winter weather will not stop Ukrainian forces from advancing.[12] Several other prominent milbloggers amplified Girkin’s story and conclusions, emphasizing Girkin’s past leadership role in hostilities in Donbas in 2014.[13] This scathing critique of the Russian military leadership from one of the most vocal and well-known figureheads of the hyper-nationalist information space, who has now reportedly acquired first-hand experiences of the nuances of frontline life, is likely to exacerbate tension between Russian military leadership and milbloggers and may reignite fragmentation within the ultra-nationalist community itself.
Dessutom behöver Ryssland en plan.
Enceladus
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The US supports the transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine – media
Militarnyi skrev:It is noted that Jake Sullivan, the Adviser to the U.S. president, informed Jens Pletner, the Adviser to the German Chancellor, about his support of the idea of supplying Leopard tanks to Ukraine back in October.

[...]

The publication shares that Germany could provide 80 tanks within a short time from the stocks of the Rheinmetall and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann manufacturers. Another 30 units are used in the combat training center of the Bundeswehr to depict enemy tanks, and they could be replaced with old tanks from Ukrainian depots.

[...]

In early August, the Spanish government decided not to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine since they are “in an improper state.”
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 8 376 enheter, varav 1 551 stridsvagnar. Samtidigt intensifieras diskussionen om att skicka tyska Leopard 2 till Ukraina. Varifrån ska Ryssland få nya stridsvagnar? Enligt USA har ju Ryssland redan förlorat hälften av sina stridsvagnar!

Why Swaths of Russian Oil Trade Far Below G-7’s $60 Cap
Bloomberg skrev:Four days into the G-7’s cap on Russian oil prices, and it appears most — but not all — of it is trading well below the threshold being imposed on Moscow.

[...]

The country’s Urals grade, which accounted for about 60% of the nation’s seaborne exports over the past year, traded at $43.73 a barrel on Wednesday, according to data provided by Argus Media. The crude is transported from ports in western Russia.

Russia’s loss of its historic European markets due to sanctions, soaring freight costs, and increased dependence on small group of faraway Urals buyers — especially China and India — mean the barrels must be discounted to compete with supplies that are more local to Asia.
Rabatten på den ryska uraloljan har ökat kraftigt under den senaste månaden.

Russia’s Oil Exports Nosedive Following Price Cap
Oilprice.com skrev:Russian crude-oil exports have taken a serious hit since new sanctions and a price cap came into force earlier in the week, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that figures from two data providers on Russian crude both show a big fall, though their magnitudes differ. 

According to one commodity-analytics firm Kpler, Russia’s seaborne exports fell by nearly 500,000 barrels per day on Tuesday, a 16% decline from the November average of 3.08 million bpd. 

Meanwhile, TankerTrackers.com, which tracks sea vessels using signals and satellite images, has reported that Russia's crude exports fell by nearly 50%. With shipments from the Black Sea and Baltic ports accounting for most of the fall.
Vidare kraschar Rysslands oljeexport.

Putin has a plan to flee to South America if he loses the war in Ukraine, former aide says
Business Insider skrev:He also said that Putin first considered a plan to evacuate to China — but later rejected the idea on the basis that the chances of "cooperation" from the Chinese would most likely be slim.

"The Chinese are too self-conscious and too contemptuous of others — especially losers. Hope, as it has now become clear, is not enough for them," he wrote. 

Argentina and Venezuela are now among the top two options for Putin to flee to, Gallyamov said, adding that Russian oligarch Igor Sechin has a good relationship with authoritarian Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Var ska Putin gömma sig efter att ha förlorat kriget? :roll:
Enceladus
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Modi to Skip Annual Putin Summit Over Ukraine Nuke Threats
Bloomberg skrev:Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi won’t be holding an annual in-person summit with Vladimir Putin after the Russian president threatened to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

[...]

It would mark only the second time the leaders of India and Russia haven’t met face to face since 2000, when the relationship was elevated to a strategic partnership. The summit, usually held in December, was canceled just once in 2020 at the height of the pandemic.

[...]

India’s decision was clear at a regional summit held in September in Uzbekistan, when Modi urged Putin to seek peace in Ukraine, said a Russian official familiar with the preparations, who asked not to be identified to discuss matters that aren’t public.
Har neutrala länder tröttnat på Putins krig och kärnvapenhot?

Pentagon gives Ukraine green light for drone strikes inside Russia
The Times skrev:The Pentagon has given a tacit endorsement of Ukraine’s long-range attacks on targets inside Russia after President Putin’s multiple missile strikes against Kyiv’s critical infrastructure.

[...]

“We’re still using the same escalatory calculations but the fear of escalation has changed since the beginning,” a US defence source told The Times. “It’s different now. This is because the calculus of war has changed as a result of the suffering and brutality the Ukrainians are being subjected to by the Russians.”

Washington is now less concerned that new long-range strikes inside Russia could lead to a dramatic escalation. Moscow’s revenge attacks have to date all involved conventional missile strikes against civilian targets. Previously, the Pentagon was warier of Ukraine attacking Russia because it feared the Kremlin would retaliate either with tactical nuclear weapons or by targeting neighbouring Nato nations.
USA räds inte längre ukrainska drönarattacker långt inne i Ryssland.

Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash
The Times skrev:Nonetheless, this hand-wringing about western sanctions is misplaced. When one looks beyond Russian official data, which is in any case heavily censored, it is clear that the cumulative effect of sanctions is having a dire effect on Russian living standards as well as hampering efforts to supply its military machine. That is undermining public support in Russia for the war, as a recent leaked Kremlin poll confirmed. What’s more, the simple fact that the West was able to agree on the oil price cap, despite significant repercussions for key sectors including shipping and insurance in countries such as Greece, Cyprus and Malta, sends a powerful signal to Moscow of the West’s continued unity and resolve.

[...]

In fact, the evidence suggests that many sectors are being hit hard by sanctions. Gas exports had collapsed by 40 per cent by the third quarter of the year. Coal exports are down by 9 per cent. Automobile sector output was down by a remarkable 77.4 per cent in September, due to shortages of components. Ironically, the strong ruble has added to the difficulties faced by exporters in non-energy sectors such as manufactured goods, chemicals, food and steel, as it has undermined their competitiveness.

[...]

The reality is that Russia is losing the economic war, just as it is losing the war on the battlefield. Real incomes in Russia are already estimated to be 10 per cent lower today than in 2014, when Putin first invaded Ukraine. Nor does he have any good options to reorient the Russian economy to make up for lost western trade. The West needs to keep piling on the pressure, not least by pressing third countries not to help Moscow circumvent sanctions. Putin thought Europeans would buckle in the face of Russian economic pressure this winter. Instead, their gas storage is full and they have just implemented a Russian oil embargo and price cap. On this, as on so much else, he miscalculated.
Vem är det som har störst uthållighet?

EU Council decides on 18 billion package for Ukraine despite Hungary's veto
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:Despite the Hungarian veto, the Council of the European Union has reached an agreement on a legislative package that will allow the European Union to provide Ukraine with financial assistance in the amount of EUR18bln in 2023.
Därmed borde Ukraina överleva även nästa år.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 8 398 enheter, varav 1 560 stridsvagnar. Här är alla tresiffriga förluster:

1. BMP-2(K) (657 förluster)
2. KamAZ 6x6 (613 förluster)
3. Ural-4320 (550 förluster)
4. BTR-82A(M) (370 förluster)
5. MT-LB (340 förluster)
6. T-72B3 (248 förluster)
7. BMP-1(P) (227 förluster)
8. T-72B (216 förluster)
9. BMP-3 (205 förluster)
10. T-72B3 Obr. 2016 (189 förluster)
11. T-80BV (189 förluster)
12. BMD-2 (188 förluster)
13. MT-LBVM(K) (150 förluster)
14. BTR-80 (141 förluster)
15. Ural-4320 tanker (141 förluster)
16. GAZ Tigr-M (127 förluster)
17. Ural-43206 (105 förluster)
18. KamAZ 6x6 tanker (104 förluster)

Näst på tur står 2S19 Msta-S (95 förluster), Orlan-10 (94 förluster) samt BM-21 Grad (92 förluster).
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Ukraine regional official says strike hits Wagner group headquarters
Reuters skrev:Gaidai, interviewed by Ukrainian television, said forces launched a strike on Saturday on a hotel in the town of Kadiivka, west of the region's main centre of Luhansk. Photos posted on Telegram channels showed a building largely reduced to rubble.

"They had a little pop there, just where Wagner headquarters was located. "A huge number of those who were there died."

[...]

"I am sure that at least 50% of those who managed to survive will die before they get medical care," he said. "This is because even in our Luhansk region, they have stolen equipment."
Igår Melitopol, idag Kadijivka. Vad blir det imorgon?

Utnötningen fortsätter. Här visas sex förstörda ryska stridsfordon som körde i klump. Oerfarna ryska trupper är ett lätt byte. Här förstörs en rysk stridsvagn av typen T-72B3 av en ukrainsk stridsvagn av typen T-64BV. Erfarna ukrainska styrkor vinner med kvalitet före kvantitet. Och här visas Switchblade 300 i bruk.
Neil Hauer skrev:Good analysis in this thread about the situation in Kreminna, Luhansk oblast. Feels like Ukrainian forces are slowly but surely turning it into another Lyman - outflanking a highly fortified city and forcing a costly Russian withdrawal under fire.
Är Kreminna på väg att bli nästa Lyman?
Enceladus
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Putin ställer in årlig presskonferens inför nyår
Omni skrev:Under presskonferensen, som Putin hållit under nästan alla sina 22 år vid makten, brukar presidenten ta frågor från medier och allmänheten. Tillställningen varar normalt i flera timmar.
För många frågor, för få svar. Det är bättre att tiga och bli misstänkt för att vara idiot än att öppna munnen och röja alla tvivel.

EU överens om utökat militärt stöd till Ukraina
Di skrev:”Förseningen hänger inte på en särskild medlemsstat”, sade han och anspelade på att Ungern tidigare har försenat sanktioner mot Ryssland och stöd till Ukraina.

Det nionde sanktionspaketet mot Ryssland uppges innehålla importförbud för metaller, vissa elektroniska komponenter, sändningslicenser för vissa ryska tv-kanaler och frysta tillgångar för fler individer och paramilitära organisationer.

[...]

Utrikesministrarna beslutade också om sanktioner mot iranska individer som tillhandahåller drönare till Ryssland och personer ansvariga för våld mot demonstranter i Iran.
EU planerar nya sanktioner mot Ryssland och Iran. Vidare utökas det militära stödet till Ukraina.

Putin signs budget with 30% for defense, UK intelligence reports
The New Voice of Ukraine skrev:"This is a significant increase compared to prior years and will represent over 30 per cent of Russia’s entire budget," the ministry wrote, adding that the approved budget is likely over-optimistic in its expectation of revenue and spending in 2023.

"Therefore, other parts of Russia’s budget are likely to come under increasing pressure to support the costs of the war," they concluded.
Försvar och säkerhet tar upp omkring en tredjedel av den ryska budgeten. Andra områden kan tvingas dra ned på sina utgifter för att finansiera kriget i Ukraina.

Fire engulfs another Moscow mall, 2nd such fire in 4 days
The Associated Press skrev:A massive fire gutted a shopping mall on Moscow’s eastern outskirts on Monday, the second such blaze in four days.
Försäkringsbedrägerier kan bli vanligare i Ryssland när ekonomin blir allt sämre.

Slovak Foreign Minister: Slovakia remains ready to send MiG jets to Ukraine
The Kyiv Independent skrev:In an interview published by Interfax Ukraine on Dec. 12, Kačer said that the Soviet-made jets have not been delivered to Ukraine yet, but Slovakia is “talking with NATO partners about how to do it.”

[...]

The U.S. rejected Poland’s March offer to send similar Soviet-era jets to Ukraine over fears of being drawn into the conflict.
Var det Nordmakedonien som bröt tabut först?
Enceladus
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Poll: 85% of Ukrainians believe victory in war with Russia requires liberating all territories, including Crimea and Donbas
The Kyiv Independent skrev:Meanwhile, 9% of Ukrainians said they would consider a victory in liberating territories controlled by Ukraine before the start of the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24. Only about 5% of respondents are in favor of continuing fighting on Russia’s territory after liberating all of Ukraine.
Det blir ett långvarigt krig, men Ukraina ger inte upp! Enligt en färsk intervju med Kofman är syftet med de ryska attackerna mot ukrainsk infrastruktur inte att utöva påtryckningar på befolkningen eftersom Putin inte tror på allmänhetens påverkan på beslutsfattandet. Att det ukrainska folket får lida är bara en bonus.

Schumer: Omnibus expected to include Electoral Count Act, Ukraine funding
The Hill skrev:Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Tuesday that he expects a year-end omnibus spending package to include the Electoral Count Act, which clarifies the vice president’s role in certifying a presidential election as ministerial, and more funding for Ukraine.

[...]

Senate negotiators haven’t confirmed what amount of funding for Ukraine will be included in the omnibus. The Biden administration last month requested an additional $37.7 billion to continue military and economic support to Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Vad har hänt med Putins nyttiga idioter i västvärlden? Orban gick nyss med på ett stödpaket på 18 miljarder euro, och nu verkar ingen stoppa USA:s stödpaket!

Artemis, Tiangong successes in US-China space race leave Russia eating cosmic dust
SCMP skrev:Space exploration, once a spirited rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, has now become a contest between the US and China. Recent weeks have seen advances in the space programmes of both countries, and these advances have left Russia in the cosmic dust.

A powerful new US rocket propelled an uncrewed module to the moon and beyond while the International Space Station, primarily funded and run by the US, continues to do good science. Meanwhile, China’s newly expanded Tiangong space station recently refreshed its crew with a visit from Shenzhou 15.

On November 16, the US-designed Space Launch System (SLS) thrust an uncrewed Orion capsule on a trajectory for the moon in its inaugural test flight as part of the Artemis programme. The SLS was supposed to be an answer to Russia’s Proton rockets and the legendary Saturn rocket.
Vad har Putin gjort med Rysslands arv?

China Maps Out Plans to Put Astronauts on the Moon and on Mars
The New York Times skrev:China has also tapped into Russian expertise extensively over the years, going back to the founding of Jiuquan in 1958 as a military base for the development of China’s first intercontinental ballistic missiles. Spacecraft carrying the Shenzhou missions strongly resemble Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft.

The country’s space officials say that every component of their spacecraft is made in China. But they acknowledge having benefited from cooperation over the years with their northern neighbor.

[...]

China is now pursuing its own programs and has not partnered with Russia for its new space station.
Kina har i praktiken blivit Sovjetunionens fortsättarstat.
Enceladus
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Allies Want To Give Ukraine 'Decisive Edge' In War With Russia, Western Officials Say
The Huffington Post skrev:Ukraine’s allies are seeking ways to give the country a “decisive edge” to end the war with Russia, Western officials have said.

Officials said the US wants to help Ukraine end the deadlock “without crossing over into an offensive against Russia”.

[...]

Biden is widely expected to approve sending a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine to help shoot down incoming missiles.
Ukraina väntas få det avancerade luftvärnssystemet Patriot från USA, men det behövs mer för att "bryta dödläget". Planeras några stridsfordon?

U.S. planning to give Ukraine smart-bomb kits
Washington Post skrev:The Biden administration is planning to send Ukraine advanced electronic equipment that converts unguided aerial munitions into “smart bombs” that can target Russian military positions with a high degree of accuracy, according to senior U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

[...]

The Ukrainian Air Force relies primarily on aging Soviet-era MiG jets, and the Pentagon has sought ways to upgrade them rather than provide newer Western aircraft that would require its pilots and maintainer units to undertake complicated new training.

The Biden administration has previously equipped Ukraine with other advanced weaponry, including air-launched high-speed, antiradiation missiles, or HARMs, to enhance Ukraine’s ability to carry out airstrikes. But those weapons function differently than the GPS-guided JDAM, instead hunting radiation emitted by Russian units and headquarters.
Detta kan vara ett sätt att ge Ukraina en fördel på slagfältet!

How Estonia is helping Ukraine take on Russian cyber threats
POLITICO skrev:Ukraine has surprised the world with its ability to fend off major cyberattacks from Russia. And one small country — Estonia — has played an outsized role in helping them do so.

[...]

In some ways, Estonia was forced to prioritize cybersecurity following a Russian cyberattack in 2007 that attempted to shut down the websites of government, banking and other critical services organizations in retaliation for the removal of a Soviet-era statue. Now, Ilves said, they aim to share the expertise they’ve accumulated.

[...]

Estonia’s expertise on technology issues is also something that Ukraine and other nations have learned from, and Ilves noted that Estonia was a driving force behind the Ukrainian government’s efforts to move Ukraine toward being a “digital society.” These lessons have stuck, as Ukraine is developing tools such as a digital ID to help track refugees, an effort Ilves said Estonia is attempting to emulate.
Estlands digitalisering har länge varit ett föredöme för hela världen. De andra baltiska länderna hakade på snabbt, och nu verkar Ukraina ansluta sig.

Russia Oil Revenues Dropped in November Amid Discounts, IEA Says
Bloomberg skrev:Russia’s oil revenues dropped in November to the second-lowest level this year as rising exports couldn’t offset widening discounts on the nation’s barrels, according to the International Energy Agency.

Russia earned about $15.8 billion from oil sales last month, the IEA estimated in its market report on Wednesday. The lowest monthly revenue this year was $14.7 billion in September, which was in line with the 2021 average.

[...]

November’s decline in revenue came as the price of Urals, the key Russian export crude blend, slid to about $43 per barrel as of early December, the IEA said.
Trodde Putin ärligt talat att Ryssland hade en chans att vinna ett handelskrig mot två tredjedelar av världsekonomin? :roll:

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 8 463 enheter, varav 1 579 stridsvagnar. Ryssland kan helt enkelt inte vinna ett utnötningskrig mot väst.
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An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces
The Economist skrev:I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd. But I can’t do it with two brigades. I get what I get, but it is less than what I need. It is not yet time to appeal to Ukrainian soldiers in the way that Mannerheim appealed to Finnish soldiers. We can and should take a lot more territory.

[...]

Russian mobilisation has worked. It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war. I’ve studied the history of the two Chechen wars—it was the same. They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us. We estimate that they have a reserve of 1.2m-1.5m people… The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.
Västvärldens stöd avgör krigets utfall.

Ukraine update: 'A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go … Russian mobilization has worked'
Daily Kos skrev:Reports of fighting at Stara Krasnyanka, directly south of Kreminna, along with continued reports of advances from Dibrova to the west and more fighting near Zhytlivka to the north. Meanwhile, there are reports from Russian sources of a fight taking place northeast of Kupyansk as Ukraine attempts to clear that remaining wedge of control in the northeast corner of Kharkiv oblast.
Är Kreminna det nya Lyman?

How Putin’s technocrats saved the economy to fight a war they opposed
Financial Times skrev:“It was not possible to be on Putin’s team after 2012,” when he returned to the Kremlin after a four-year hiatus, “if you have even some degree of disloyalty. So I’m really not surprised all of them decided to stay”.

[...]

Her success earned her the trust of Putin, who backed her independence in the face of a powerful oligarchical lobby that pushed for Sergei Glazyev, a hardline nationalist and promoter of conspiracy theories who is beloved of the siloviki, to replace her. In December last year, Putin publicly endorsed Nabiullina over her critics, warning that Russia “could end up like Turkey” — a byword for unorthodox economic policy and a rapidly weakening currency — if it abandoned inflation targeting to open up cheaper credit for businesses.

[...]

Nabiullina quickly set about dismantling her own legacy. Western countries seized about half of Russia’s foreign currency reserves, leaving Nabiullina unable to use a tool that was supposed to protect the economy from turbulence. To stop a run on the banks and ease pressure on the rouble, Russia introduced currency controls — a measure she had previously told friends would force her resignation. “We destroyed everything we built over 10 years,” a person close to her says.

[...]

“Everything depends on the central bank. If the central bank doesn’t work properly the whole economy is completely [snusk],” the former official says. “If Glazyev came in, the rouble wouldn’t even be printed on paper. They’d just have to give out pieces of wood.”
Putins teknokrater är lojala, men kompetenta. Turkiets så kallade Erdoganomics kan ha varit ett avskräckande exempel.

A Russian spacecraft started leaking uncontrollably on Wednesday night
Ars Technica skrev:A Russian spacewalk was canceled at the last minute on Wednesday night when a spacecraft attached to the International Space Station unexpectedly sprang a large leak.

[...]

The leak appears to have originated in an external cooling loop located at the aft end of the Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft. Public affairs officer Rob Navias, who was commentating on the spacewalk for NASA Television, characterized the spacecraft as leaking "fairly substantially." Video of the coolant leak showed particles streaming continuously from the Soyuz, a rather remarkable sight.

[...]

Given the long duration of the leak, NASA is also likely to have concerns about the impact of all that ammonia on space station surfaces and those of other docked vehicles. Much of the ammonia would probably boil off the surface of the hardware over time, but it will certainly complicate operations as the US space agency works toward conducting a spacewalk of its own on December 19 to install new solar arrays.
Hur stor påverkan har sanktionerna på Rysslands rymdprogram? Lyckligtvis har USA återfått förmågan att skicka människor ut i rymden - tack vare Musk. Indien väntas bli det fjärde landet med denna förmåga efter Sovjetunionen/Ryssland, USA och Kina. Som vanligt lyser Europa med sin frånvaro.

After Russia’s exit from the Lunar Gateway, NASA has found a new partner in UAE
Ars Technica skrev:Relations between NASA and Russia's state-owned space corporation were fairly robust five years ago when the two parties signed a joint statement that discussed partnering on the development of a space station orbiting the Moon, called the Lunar Gateway. At the time, Russia's Roscosmos was expected to provide an airlock for the facility.

[...]

While Russia was drifting away from NASA, nearly two dozen countries have signed multilateral agreements to join NASA's Artemis Accords. One of the founding member nations, the United Arab Emirates, is looking to take its participation further. On Tuesday, The National reported that the UAE is in discussions with NASA to provide an airlock for the Lunar Gateway. The small Middle Eastern nation has been working with Boeing on designs.

[...]

The Islamic nation, which is smaller in area than the US state of Maine, has a population of just about 9 million people. However, it has expressed an outsize interest in space exploration. In June 2020, through a partnership with the University of Colorado Boulder, the UAE's space program sent the "Hope" probe to Mars to study the red planet's atmosphere. UAE officials said the goal of this program was to inspire its younger generation to go into science, technology, engineering, and medicine. At the time, only Russia, the United States, the European Union, and India had successfully put a spacecraft into orbit around Mars.
Konsten att ersätta en diktatur med en annan...
Enceladus
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: fredag 16 december 2022 14:20 ESA har inget behov av att bygga egna bemannade rymdfarkoster, det blir för dyrt.
The EU’s galactically bad space programme
The Spectator skrev:Europe is lost in space. Ever since the Soviets orbited Yuri Gagarin and America landed men on the moon, Europe has proclaimed the ambition to compete on the final frontier.

More than half a century later, Europe is unable to compete even with India, as in October it became incapable of launching its own payloads into space.

[...]

With a budget of €7.2 billion and a staff of 2,200, the ESA, which was founded 50 years ago, has admitted that it cannot launch its forthcoming space telescope and an asteroid mission. It’s had to beg Elon Musk for his reusable Falcon rockets. It has also lost access to Russian Soyuz vehicles (yes, they’re in bed with the Russians) and because of long delays in the introduction of the replacement Ariane 6 launch vehicle, it is wildly over budget and years late. The humiliation is galactic.
Vad är ursäkten för att Europa behöver Musks hjälp för att skjuta upp rymdteleskopet Euclid och Hera-sonden? :roll:
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