Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Marinen vid Kaliningrad före Nord Stream-explosionerna
DN skrev:I fredags bekräftade Försvarsmakten att svenska marinens fartyg under två dygn befann sig i båda de områden utanför Bornholm där Nord Stream 1 och 2 senare utsattes för misstänkt sabotage. Som närmast befann marinens fartyg sig bara cirka två kilometer från de platser där explosionen senare inträffade.

[...]

DN kan i dag avslöja att marinens fartyg därefter körde till gränsen mot den ryska exklaven Kaliningrad. Klockan 14.28 på söndagseftermiddagen började marinen sända positionsdata igen, då befann sig fartyget utanför Kaliningrad. Hon identifierade sig i AIS-data som ”Swedish warship”.

[...]

Enligt Jimmie Adamsson befann sig marinen ”ett antal kilometer” från den ryska territorialgränsen.
– Man går aldrig så nära att det blir någon form av missförstånd, säger han.
Vad gjorde svenska marinens fartyg så nära den ryska gränsen? :?



Putin’s tactical mistake: Vladislav Inozemtsev on how Putin lost the gas war with Europe


Den 3 oktober ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,25 procentenheter till 89,61 procent och Tysklands gaslager med 0,35 procentenheter till 92,53 procent. Imposant!
Enceladus skrev: tisdag 04 oktober 2022 23:49 Militärbloggaren Rybar visar hur snabbt Ukraina avancerar mot Cherson norrifrån.
Enligt Rybars senaste karta har Ukraina avancerat ytterligare - allt på samma dag!
Breitspurbahn
Inlägg: 436
Blev medlem: tisdag 11 februari 2020 10:38

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: tisdag 04 oktober 2022 23:49
Breitspurbahn skrev: tisdag 04 oktober 2022 11:36 Det är en smula oroväckande att kärnvapen har börjat nämnas allt mer frekvent, samtidigt som förslag på fredsförhandlingar, som senast av Elon Musk, bemöts med hårda anklagelser om spioneri (verkar bara vara denna konflikt man måste ha en åsikt om för att inte anklagas för att vara KGB-spion) & sympatier.
Ekvationen är inte helt optimal.
Elon Musk är i bästa fall en nyttig idiot som inte är insatt i ämnet och rökte på lite för mycket innan han började twittra.
Varför skulle han ha rökt på? Han är tveklöst ett geni, om än inte expert på området. Likväl är det oroväckande att försök till fred i en tid av kärnvapenprat möts med idiot/spion-anklagelser.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Breitspurbahn skrev: onsdag 05 oktober 2022 12:11 Varför skulle han ha rökt på? Han är tveklöst ett geni, om än inte expert på området. Likväl är det oroväckande att försök till fred i en tid av kärnvapenprat möts med idiot/spion-anklagelser.
Elon Musk har en historia av att röka på i sociala medier. Någon långvarig fred blir det inte om angriparen belönas.

Putin Makes Chechnya's Kadyrov an Army General
The Moscow Times skrev:Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally of President Vladimir Putin, said Wednesday he was granted a top rank in Russia's army, just as Moscow's forces suffer a series of defeats in Ukraine.
Rysslands militär befinner sig i fritt fall. Putins befordring av Kadyrov till generalöverste befäster nepotismen. En maktkamp har blossat upp.

Elite Russian Intelligence Unit Suffers Major Losses in Ukraine – BBC
The Moscow Times skrev:An elite, highly secretive Russian military intelligence unit may have lost up to three-quarters of its reconnaissance manpower in Ukraine, according to research published by the BBC’s Russian service Tuesday.

[...]

The GRU’s 3rd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade appears to have suffered its highest losses so far in the latest retreat from eastern Ukraine’s key railway hub of Lyman last week.
Det sägs att Putin inte ville att militären skulle vara tillräckligt stark för att utmana hans styre. Tydligen kan denna militär inte heller utmana Ukraina.

U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind an Assassination in Russia
The New York Times skrev:United States intelligence agencies believe parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the car bomb attack near Moscow in August that killed Daria Dugina, the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, an element of a covert campaign that U.S. officials fear could widen the conflict.

The United States took no part in the attack, either by providing intelligence or other assistance, officials said. American officials also said they were not aware of the operation ahead of time and would have opposed the killing had they been consulted. Afterward, American officials admonished Ukrainian officials over the assassination, they said.
Enligt tidningens källor tror USA att Ukraina ligger bakom mordet på Daria Dugina. Om nu uppgifterna stämmer så påminner operationen om Mossad.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Ukraine’s New Offensive Is Fueled by Captured Russian Weapons
WSJ skrev:Captured and abandoned Russian tanks, howitzers and fighting vehicles—quickly scrubbed of their Z tactical markers and repainted with Ukrainian crosses—are being turned against their former owners as Ukraine’s military advances in the eastern part of the country.

[...]

Ukraine has captured 460 Russian main battle tanks, 92 self-propelled howitzers, 448 infantry fighting vehicles, 195 armored fighting vehicles and 44 multiple-launch rocket systems, according to visual evidence compiled from social media and news reports from Oryx, an open-source intelligence consulting firm. The real number is likely higher as not every captured piece of equipment gets filmed.

Not all the gear is cutting edge. “What they are capturing is a mix of modern equipment that they can use quite effectively, and some that really belongs in museums,” said Jakub Janovsky, who compiles the count of weapons losses at Oryx.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 6 771 enheter, varav 1 280 stridsvagnar och 17 uråldriga T-62:or. Igår bekräftades första Smerch-förlusten.

Rybar har uppdaterade kartor för Luhansk-området samt Cherson-området. Ukraina avancerar på båda fronterna!

How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end?
Timothy Snyder skrev:At first, no one could imagine that the Russo-Ukrainian war could begin. And yet it began. And now, no one can imagine how it will end. And yet end it will.
Timothy Snyder har skrivit en ny utläggning om kriget, denna gång om dess slut.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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What Is Russia Thinking??
Geopolitical Futures skrev:Putin is responsible because he is the president. But the general staff and intelligence services share the blame. What has happened in Ukraine is a systemic breakdown of leadership that lead the country into a poorly understood war, insisting that victory is just around the corner if it simply holds the line. Wars like this usually end in political deaths. Vietnam finished Lyndon B. Johnson, World War II the Japanese and German regimes. Each fought with the hope of something turning up. It never did. The pivotal question is: What makes Russia think it can win next week when it hasn’t won in seven months? There is sometimes an answer to that kind of question, but Russian politicians are now laying blame on others for the failure. Making peace sounds easy to those who didn’t start the war.
Förr eller senare kan Ryssland inte ignorera verkligheten.

Watching China in Europe - October 2022
German Marshall Fund of the United States skrev:China’s relationship with Russia is also likely to be a discussion point in Brussels this month. In recent conversations with their Chinese counterparts, EU officials say they have detected cracks in Beijing’s support for Russia. Chinese diplomats have removed their talking points blaming NATO for the conflict in Ukraine and made clear that the use of nuclear weapons by Russia would be viewed as totally unacceptable in Beijing. But the Chinese side is also probing for signs of European weakness. “They let us know that our position on Russia comes with a high cost,” one EU official told me. “They point out that the winter could be very cold. They are trying to figure out how serious we are about our policies. This is a test of the resolve of Western democracies.”
Kina vill naturligtvis inte stå på förlorarens sida. Mycket tyder på att Ryssland förlorar, men än är det inte helt säkert.

Xi Jinping may ‘recalibrate’ after miscalculation of siding with Russia, Henry Kissinger says
SCMP skrev:After watching China’s “no limits” partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin fall well short of expectations, the stage is set for President Xi Jinping to tilt at least modestly toward the United States after the 20th party congress, former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger said on Monday.

“Xi gave a rather blank check to Putin,” Kissinger said at the Asia Society in New York. “He must have thought the invasion would succeed. He must need to recalibrate.”
Även Kissinger har ändrat tonläge. Det är tydligen inte längre nödvändigt att göra eftergifter till Putin, utan nu är han en förlorare som kan förödmjukas.

OPEC Move Shows the Limits of Biden’s Fist-Bump Diplomacy With the Saudis
The New York Times skrev:The production cut announced Wednesday will reduce global daily production by about 2 percent, though some of that is a phantom reduction because the group’s members were already underproducing from their own goals. But its effect on prices may be greater, upward of 15 to 30 cents a gallon at the pump, experts estimated.

And for Mr. Biden, with midterm elections only a month away, the timing could not be worse.

[...]

The degree of anger and surprise at the White House was obvious: On Tuesday the press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, told reporters “we’re not considering new releases” from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve beyond what Mr. Biden had announced previously. On Wednesday morning, not 24 hours later, with the OPEC cut looming, White House officials said the Energy Department would release another 10 million barrels next month.

[...]

Officials did not say that Mr. Biden regretted the fist bump with Prince Mohammed, which represented his decision to move on from his stated goal of making Saudi Arabia pay a price for the grisly killing and dismemberment of Mr. Khashoggi.

[...]

“It is definitely political. It has nothing to do with money,” said Cinzia Bianco, a Gulf research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Ett lågt oljepris är en valvinnare i USA, men det oljerika Saudiarabien vill ha maktskifte.

Den 4 oktober ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,21 procentenheter till 89,85 procent och Tysklands gaslager med 0,22 procentenheter till 92,75 procent. Bra så!
Breitspurbahn
Inlägg: 436
Blev medlem: tisdag 11 februari 2020 10:38

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: torsdag 06 oktober 2022 1:14
Breitspurbahn skrev: onsdag 05 oktober 2022 12:11 Varför skulle han ha rökt på? Han är tveklöst ett geni, om än inte expert på området. Likväl är det oroväckande att försök till fred i en tid av kärnvapenprat möts med idiot/spion-anklagelser.
Elon Musk har en historia av att röka på i sociala medier. Någon långvarig fred blir det inte om angriparen belönas.
Han har gjort det en gång då han blev erbjuden och aldrig hade testat. Det gör honom knappast till en rökare.

Någon långvarig fred är inte mycket värd om halva eller hela klotet blir obeboeligt pga atomvinter...
Putin har ju hela tiden sagt att han vill ha autonomi/självständighet för Donbass & ett neutralt Ukraina utanför NATO.
Varför skulle freden inte bestå om han får det?
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Breitspurbahn skrev: torsdag 06 oktober 2022 11:35 Någon långvarig fred är inte mycket värd om halva eller hela klotet blir obeboeligt pga atomvinter...
Putin har ju hela tiden sagt att han vill ha autonomi/självständighet för Donbass & ett neutralt Ukraina utanför NATO.
Varför skulle freden inte bestå om han får det?
Att belöna Putin för att ha startat ett erövringskrig skapar bara incitament för fler krig - av Ryssland eller andra aktörer. Det blev inte fred efter kriget i Georgien 2008 eller i Ukraina 2014. Ironiskt nog väljer jag att hänvisa till ett inlägg av republikanen Lindsey Graham - en av Trumps mest hängivna vapendragare:
Lindsey Graham skrev:In 1994, through the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons arsenal — the third largest in the world — in return for assurances their territorial integrity would be protected.

It was an agreement signed by Russia that included protecting Crimea and the Donbas as part of Ukraine.

If you want peace in Ukraine — which we ALL do — simply demand Russian honor the boundaries they agreed to in 1994 and withdraw their forces.

To do otherwise is to legitimize a bait and switch by Russia and a signal to other bad actors to take what you want - by force!
I en tidigare länkad artikel redogör den före detta CIA-chefen David Petraeus för hur det ryska kärnvapenhotet kan bemötas.

The post-Putin peace
Novaya Gazeta Europe skrev:A peace treaty negotiation of this kind could resolve all issues of the post-Soviet countries in one single shot: Moscow would barter its compensation payments to Ukraine for closing all its “sore areas” by withdrawing its troops from Moldova's Transnistria, Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and demilitarising the Kaliningrad exclave. This set of proposals would be a decent effort towards European security from Moscow, the one that would counterpoise the aftermath of Russia's aggression in Ukraine.

Some may say that this sounds surreal, but this is the way it's going to be as there is no other way Moscow can avoid the impending catastrophe with minimum losses.
Ovanstående artikel beskriver ett mer önskvärt - och numera även ett mer realistiskt - fredsavtal.

Expert: Ledare börjar tappa respekt för Putin
DN skrev:Putin har själv gjort sig känd för att låta andra ledare vänta, inte ens Tysklands förra förbundskansler Angela Merkel eller påven Franciskus har undantagits. Nu gav Japarov och Erdogan igen med samma mynt.
Enligt Hedenskog är det här tecken på att Putins inflytande minskar och att andra ledare håller på att tappa respekten för honom – något som bottnar i Rysslands ”militära degradering”. Ukraina återtar allt mer territorium samtidigt som de ryska styrkorna tvingas backa. Ingen vill stå på en förlorares sida.

[...]

– Ryssland är en militärmakt på dekis. De här länderna ser allt mindre anledning att bygga sin egen säkerhet på Ryssland, som inte kommer till deras undsättning om de blir angripna utan snarare utnyttjar deras utsatta situation i egna syften. Det gör dem mindre angelägna att stödja Ryssland politiskt.
Det är antagligen för sent för Putin att tvätta bort förlorarstämpeln. Att göra försvarsminister Sergej Sjojgu till syndabock räcker förstås inte.
Enceladus skrev: torsdag 15 september 2022 20:47 Rysslands valutareserver har än en gång nått en ny bottennivå (om Putins centralbank går att lita på). Sedan invasionen började har reserverna sjunkit från 643,2 till 557,4 miljarder dollar, en minskning med 85,8 miljarder dollar (drygt 13,3 procent). Som bekant har ungefär hälften av det ursprungliga beloppet frysts.
Rysslands valutareserver når återigen en ny bottennivå. Sedan invasionen började har reserverna sjunkit från 643,2 till 540,7 miljarder dollar, en minskning med 102,5 miljarder dollar (drygt 15,9 procent). Som bekant har ungefär hälften av det ursprungliga beloppet frysts. Tre decenniers åtstramningar förgäves!

A more strategic Russian retreat signals long fight ahead in Kherson
The Washington Post skrev:A day after Ukrainian forces reclaimed more territory in the southern Kherson and Mykolaiv regions, the jubilation of a breakthrough at this part of the front line was tempered by anxiety over an expected hard fight ahead.

[...]

“This is not Kharkiv,” Kostenko said. “There, they left all of their ammunition and vehicles and fled. Here, we don’t even have many trophies. They just retreated from the fight, took everything with them to their new position and are digging in anew.”

[...]

Unlike in Kharkiv, where local militiamen and Russian national guardsmen were primarily manning a front that fell quickly, Russia has put more seasoned forces — paratroopers and marines — in and around Kherson. They are tougher adversaries, but even those units now seem disjointed due to heavy casualties.
Dessvärre är Cherson-offensiven en större utmaning än Charkiv-offensiven. Icke desto mindre avancerar Ukraina.

The CIA Thought Putin Would Quickly Conquer Ukraine. Why Did They Get It So Wrong?
The Intercept skrev:The U.S. intelligence community’s stunning failure at the beginning of the war to recognize the fundamental weaknesses in the Russian system mirrors its blindness to the military and economic weaknesses of the Soviet Union in the 1980s, when Washington failed to predict the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. While not all U.S. intelligence analysts underestimated the Ukrainian will to fight, the community’s missteps in Ukraine came just months after American intelligence gravely underestimated how fast the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan would collapse in 2021, leading to a rapid takeover by the *fd afgahnsk regim*.

[...]

Meanwhile, one of the biggest mysteries for U.S. analysts has been Russia’s failure to gain control of Ukraine’s skies, despite having a far larger air force. Aircraft design flaws, poor pilot training, and gaps in aircraft maintenance have left Russian aircraft vulnerable to Ukraine’s air defenses, which have been bolstered with Stinger missiles and other Western air defense systems.
Även USA:s underrättelsegemenskap behöver göra sin hemläxa.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: lördag 30 juli 2022 18:08
Enceladus skrev: lördag 30 juli 2022 16:00 Rymden envisas med att återkomma som tema i detta krig, oavsett om vi vill det eller inte! Ukraina tycks i alla fall visa tacksamhet över Elon Musks insatser.
Ja, envisheten finns nog snarare hos Enceladus-kollektivet än hos rymden.
Space, the unseen frontier in the war in Ukraine
BBC skrev:In an interview with the BBC, the head of the US Space Force, General Jay Raymond, describes it as the "first war where commercial space capabilities have really played a significant role". It's also the first major conflict in which both sides have become so reliant on space.
Det finns uppenbarligen fler som gör samma bedömning, bland annat USA:s rymdstyrka.

Kremlin Lets State Media Tell Some Truths About Putin’s Stalling War
Bloomberg skrev:The shift in policy over the last few weeks, described by people familiar with the Kremlin’s tight message management who spoke on condition of anonymity, has unleashed a wave of unusual public criticism of the military. After months of reporting virtually nothing but battlefield successes, state TV has lately been cataloging Russian retreats and defeats - without the usual positive spin from the Ministry of Defense.

[...]

There’s no sign the Kremlin will let the strictly controlled media go that far, of course, and no questioning of Putin or his decision to invade is allowed. But with little prospect its forces will be able to slow Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the near future, the authorities hope the appearance of less spin may help shore up public support.

[...]

At their last meeting with Putin, the war reporters, known for their hardline nationalist views and skepticism of the military brass, painted a dire picture of the situation on the front, the people said. In just a few weeks, Ukraine’s forces had swept into large swathes of territory that Russian troops had spent months fighting to occupy. Some of the correspondents came away wondering whether Putin had been getting a full account of the real situation from his official briefings, according to the people.
Till slut kom verkligheten ikapp.

Ukraine has made stunning gains on the battlefield
The Economist skrev:Ukraine’s soldiers have enjoyed stunning success in the east. They launched a surprise attack on September 5th, punching through Russia’s defensive line south-east of Kharkiv city. Swift losses of strategic strongholds, including Izyum and Kupyansk, forced the Russian army into rapid retreat. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, claimed on September 12th that Ukrainian forces had retaken over 6,000 square kilometres of territory since the start of the month—far more than Russia had captured in recent months.

The Kherson counter-offensive in the south has proceeded at a different rhythm. The long-expected attack there showed few signs of progress throughout September. That changed in early October, when Ukrainian forces pushed Russian soldiers along the western bank of the Dnieper river beyond the town of Dudchany, 30km from the previous front line (see second pair of maps). Ukraine continued to make substantial gains in northern Kherson on October 4th, forcing Russian troops to regroup around Mylove, some 15km southwards. Ukrainian troops have since consolidated their progress and are rumoured to be regrouping for a push past Snihurivka, 45km north-east of Kherson city.
Denna artikel sammanfattar Ukrainas motoffensiver under den gångna månaden i ord och bild.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 6 843 enheter, varav 1 298 stridsvagnar och 22 uråldriga T-62:or. Gamla stridsvagnar utgör en allt större andel av förlusterna. Detta är verkligen inget bra tecken för Rysslands uthållighet.

Den 5 oktober ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,24 procentenheter till 90,13 procent och Tysklands gaslager med 0,28 procentenheter till 93,07 procent. Förutom att två nya milstolpar har nåtts kan det noteras att tillväxten fortfarande är mycket snabbare än alla prognoser. Varför var alla analytiker så pessimistiska?
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Fredspriset en örfil mot Putin
DN skrev:Valet av de tre fredspristagarna är mycket talande: det säger allt om den politiska avgrund som skiljer de tre länderna åt. Bara en av pristagarna får verka fritt eller är på fri fot. Medan både Ryssland och Belarus blivit allt råare diktaturer är Ukraina en skör demokrati, som nu dessutom slåss för sin överlevnad som fri nation och självständigt land.

Roten till det ökade förtrycket och det allt värre våldet mot dessa tre slaviska nationer finns i Kreml. Därför kan man se fredspriset som en örfil riktad mot den ryske presidenten Vladimir Putin. Just på fredagen firade han en bedrövlig 70-årsdag, i ett läge när hans krigföring i Ukraina går minst sagt knackigt, Ryssland har förvandlats till en pariastat och den tidigare inhemska uppslutningen bakom hans regim börjar uppvisa allvarliga sprickor.
Årets tre mottagare av Nobels fredspris är alla på olika sätt motståndare till Putin: Ales Bialiatski är en belarusisk aktivist som hans allierade Lukasjenka har satt i fängelse, Memorial är en rysk organisation som han har förbjudit och Center for Civil Liberties är en ukrainsk organisation som dokumenterar ryska krigsbrott. Norska Nobelkommittén har emellertid fått viss kritik för att låta Ukraina dela priset med länder som Ukraina ligger i krig med:
Kristi Raik skrev:As an Estonian, I can very well understand the bitterness of Ukrainians over the collection of Nobel peace prize winners.
Western countries reproduce the group identity that has been violently imposed by Russia. 1/

Being labelled and framed as part of a group of countries from which you are making every effort to break away and from which you objectively differ is something the Baltic states have experienced in abundance. 2/

Ukraine is a European democracy with a strong civil society. Ukrainians are dying for their freedom and democracy, and ours.
I wish the same could one day be said about Russia but I'm not holding my breath. 3/3
Hur kommer det sig att Rysslands befolkning inte kan protestera som i Iran?

Putin confronted by insider over Ukraine war, U.S. intelligence finds
The Washington Post skrev:A member of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle has voiced disagreement directly to the Russian president in recent weeks over his handling of the war in Ukraine, according to information obtained by U.S. intelligence.

[...]

The information was deemed significant enough that it was included in President Biden’s daily intelligence briefing and shared with other U.S. officials, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence.

The discontent that the member of Putin’s inner circle expressed related to what the insider considered mismanagement of the war effort and mistakes being made by those executing the military campaign, according to one of the people.
Vet USA mer om Putins inre cirkel än Putin själv?

‘Someone will fall victim’: insiders reveal elite anguish as Russia’s war falters
The Guardian skrev:“The Kremlin is looking for scapegoats. There have been three obvious failures: the start of the war, the latest military failures, and the botched mobilisation,” said Gelman, the former Putin adviser.

Shoigu and other top military officials are the obvious target. Once seen by Russia’s public as the man who modernised Russia’s army and oversaw the successful 2014 Crimea operation, Shoigu is now facing a backlash for the military’s failures. And there are clear temptations to sack him.

[...]

The native of Tuva had always been an unenthusiastic supporter of the 2014 war in the Donbas but was overruled by a cadre of hawkish Kremlin advisers including Nikolai Patrushev, the person said. He also was not in favour of the more recent “annexations” of occupied Ukrainian territory, he added.

[...]

“Even if Shiogu isn’t happy with what is happening, he’ll always be loyal to Putin and do his job,” the person said. “Putin knows he can fully trust him.”
Som tidigare sagt, det räcker inte att göra Sjojgu till syndabock. Dessutom kan efterträdaren vara mindre lojal.

Ukrainian forces report Starlink outages during push against Russia
Financial Times skrev:Roman Sinicyn, a co-ordinator at the Serhiy Prytula Charity, a foundation that donates Starlink systems to the Ukrainian armed forces, said the problem may be occurring because SpaceX was trying to prevent its misuse by Russian forces.

The blackouts were being experienced in areas so recently regained that their liberations had “not been made public yet,” he said.

“It is absolutely clear to me that this is being done by representatives of Starlink to prevent the usage of their technology by Russian occupation forces,” Sinicyn said. The Ukrainian military and SpaceX need to co-ordinate more closely, he said.
Ukraina avancerar för snabbt!
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Eastern Commander latest Russian general to be sacked as defeats mount - RBC news
Reuters skrev:Russia has sacked the commander of its Eastern Military District, Colonel-General Alexander Chaiko, the Russian news site RBC reported on Friday - the latest reshuffle of top brass amid a string of battlefield reversals in Ukraine.

[...]

On Monday, RBC reported that the commander of the Western military district, Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlyov, had been replaced, shortly after dramatic Russian losses in northeast Ukraine last month and Ukraine's recapture of the strategic hub of Lyman, in Donetsk region.

[...]

In August, the state-owned RIA news agency reported that the commander of the Black Sea fleet had been fired after a series of humiliations including the sinking of its lead warship and the loss of eight warplanes in an attack on a Russian base in Crimea.
Där försvann ännu en befälhavare. Som bekant hänger centrala militärdistriktets befälhavare Lapin också löst. Södra militärdistriktets befälhavare Dvornikov, även känd som "Slaktaren från Syrien", sitter däremot säkrare.

Russia ‘stole’ upgraded Indian T-90 tanks to use them in Ukraine
BulgarianMilitary.com skrev:According to Linganna, India has sanctioned Russia for using the tanks. This means that Russia has not asked for permission to retain them and use them in the war. “The T-90 Bhishma is owned by India and has been sent to Russia for modernization testing,” says Linganna. However, only a few days ago, India officially announced that there are no problems with Russian equipment, its modernization, and the supply of spare parts for it. At least those were the words of External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to a group of journalists during a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

It all started when a video appeared on Telegram of a Russian T-90 tank manned by Russian soldiers. A detailed study of the multimedia materials shows that this is a T-90S Bhishma tank. I.e. Indian version of the T-90C – the export version of the T-90.
Är Putin så pass desperat att han bränner alla broar till Indien?

Putin orders Russia to seize Exxon-led Sakhalin 1 oil and gas project
Reuters skrev:Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree, published on Friday, to set up a new operator for the Sakhalin 1 oil and gas project, following similar steps to seize other oil and gas projects with foreign participation.

[...]

Oil production at the Sakhalin-1 project fell to just 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 220,000 bpd after sanctions were imposed on Moscow by Western powers over its military campaign in Ukraine.

[...]

Friday's decree said the Russian government was establishing a Russian company, managed by Rosneft subsidiary Sakhalinmorneftegaz-shelf, that will own investors' rights in Sakhalin-1.
Den 6 oktober ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,25 procentenheter till 90,39 procent och Tysklands gaslager med 0,28 procentenheter till 93,34 procent. Otroligt!

Uppgifter: Kraftig explosion på Krim-bron
DN skrev:Överstelöjtnant Joakim Paasakivi säger att bron har setts som en livlina för Ryssland och att explosionen troligtvis kommer att påverka kriget åtminstone på kort sikt.

– Det får en omedelbar konsekvens att ryssarna inte kan förstärka med det materiel de kan skrapa ihop den vägen. Det kan i sin tur få betydelse både för försvaret av Krim men också för striderna i Chersonregionen, och i förlängningen även för striderna i Zaporizjzja.

Han säger att ukrainarna nu har möjlighet att hota förbindelsen med staden Melitopol i Zaporizjzjaregionen, och därmed hamnar ryssarna i en oerhört trängd situation.

– Det går inte att överskatta betydelsen av Krimbron, säger han.
Spännande! Förbereder Ukraina en tredje motoffensiv, vilket har ryktats i flera veckor?
Enceladus
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Teorierna som förklarar explosionen på Krimbron
DN skrev:– Ukraina har ju sagt att Krimbron är ett mål så det är väl sannolikt. Man kan se det som en födelsedagspresent till Putin även om den kommer en dag för sent. Hela Krim har varit viktigt för honom personligen och han var ju själv den förste som körde över bron när den stod klar 2018, säger han.

Vad är den rimligaste förklaringen?

– De två huvudscenarierna är att det är en lastbil eller en missilattack. Frågan är dock om Ukraina har förmågan att slå mot mål som ligger så långt bort från de områdena man kontrollerar. Men på sätt och vis påminner detta om attacken mot Sakyflygbasen tidigare under kriget där vi spekulerade i att missiler var det rimligaste alternativet men vi kände inte till att Ukraina hade den förmågan. Det kan vara samma här, säger Käihkö.
Ukraina gav trots allt en födelsedagspresent till Putin - till skillnad från Xi:
Temur Umarov skrev:This year Xi Jinping did not congratulate his friend Vladimir Putin on his 70th birthday.

But two days ago Xi sent an official letter to Tajikistan's president Emomali Rahmon on his 70th birthday.
Försvarsexpert: Ryska militären letar syndabockar
DN skrev:General Sergej Surovikin tar över Rysslands militära insats i Ukraina – den tredje befälhavaren på posten hittills.

[...]

Tidigare i år uppgav brittiska försvarsministeriet att Surovkins karriär hade kantats av anklagelser om korruption och brutalitet. I februari sattes han upp på EU:s sanktionslista, skriver Sky News.

[...]

I april tog general Alexander Dvornikov – även kallad ”slaktaren i Syrien” – över ansvaret för hela Ukrainaoperationen, men han sparkades efter bara sju veckor. Nästan samtidigt fråntogs general Andrej Serdjukov sina uppgifter som överbefälhavare för de luftburna elittrupperna. I september byttes den logistikansvarige generalen Dmitrij Bulgakov ut och förra veckan avlägsnades chefen för Rysslands västra militärdistrikt Alexander Zhuravlev, som ansvarat för striderna i Charkivområdet. Så sent som på fredagen byttes befälhavaren för Rysslands östra militärdistrikt, general Alexander Chajko, ut och samma dag meddelades att Svartahavsflottans befälhavare Igor Osipov hade ersatts.

Utöver detta ska minst tio andra generaler ha dödats i striderna.

[...]

Ryska militären är extremt toppstyrd. Det har till och med kommit rapporter om att president Putin själv har blandat sig i krigföringen och utan att följa befälskedjan nedåt gett direkta order till sina tre högsta generaler i Ukraina.
Den av Putin garanterade stabiliteten är som bortblåst.

Russian Migration Shakes Up Armenian Economy, Society
The Moscow Times skrev:And the current exodus looks set to dwarf the one that took place at the beginning of the war, when tens of thousands fled in fear of possible martial law, political repression, economic problems and international isolation.

[...]

Already in March, the year-on-year price to buy a square meter of real estate in downtown Yerevan had risen 20%. Rents have also skyrocketed since then.

[...]

The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) last week revised upward its economic growth forecast for Armenia this year from 4.5% to 8%, noting that GDP expanded 13.1% in the first six months of 2022.
För en gångs skull skapar ryssar välstånd i sina grannländer.

Himars Transform the Battle for Ukraine—and Modern Warfare
WSJ skrev:A global revolution in warfare is dramatically tipping the scales of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, putting in the hands of front-line troops the kind of lethality that until recently required aircraft, ships or lumbering tracked vehicles. It also has the capacity to change battlefields far from Eastern Europe.

[...]

Within Kyiv’s arsenal, Himars offer a unique combination of range, precision and mobility that allows them to do the job traditionally handled by dozens of launchers firing thousands of shells.

[...]

“Himars is one part of a precision revolution that turns heavily equipped armies into something light and mobile,” said Robert Scales, a retired U.S. Army major general who was among the first to envision Himars in the 1970s.

[...]

Ukrainian commanders estimate that Himars are responsible for 70% of military advances on the Kherson front, the unit’s commander, Lt. Valentyn Koval, said. The four vehicles in his unit have killed hundreds of Russians and destroyed about 20 antiaircraft batteries, he said.
Det finns visst undervapen!
Enceladus
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Enceladus skrev: torsdag 06 oktober 2022 16:53 Rysslands valutareserver når återigen en ny bottennivå. Sedan invasionen började har reserverna sjunkit från 643,2 till 540,7 miljarder dollar, en minskning med 102,5 miljarder dollar (drygt 15,9 procent). Som bekant har ungefär hälften av det ursprungliga beloppet frysts. Tre decenniers åtstramningar förgäves!
International reserves of the Russian Federation for the month decreased by $25 billion
Buna Times skrev:Before the start of the war, the amount of Russian reserves reached a historical maximum of $643.2 billion, and in early October it fell to $540.688 billion.

[...]

In March, Russian Finance Minister Anatoly Siluanov announced that half of Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves ($300 billion out of $640 billion) were frozen due to sanctions.

It was previously reported that the first three months of the war against Ukraine set the Russian economy back four years.
Går allt fortfarande enligt plan? :roll:

Blast on Crimean Bridge Deals Blow to Russian War Effort in Ukraine
The New York Times skrev:The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a truck being driven across the bridge.
Ukrainas säkerhetstjänst påstår sig ligga bakom attentatet. Dessa uppgifter kan dock vara vilseledande, så kallad maskirovka. Här är en färsk video från bron.

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 6 883 enheter, varav 1 301 stridsvagnar och fyra bränsletåg. Fjärde bränsletåget förlorades på Kertjbron.

Gas storage facilities in Germany continue to fill up – 93.64 percent
Germany Detail Zero skrev:The gas storage facilities in Germany continue to fill up. As of Friday night, reservoirs were 93.64 percent full, up 0.42 percent from the previous day, data from the Association of European Gas Infrastructure Managers showed on Saturday.

At the same time, the federal government’s goal of reaching an average filling level of 95 percent nationwide at the beginning of November now seems within reach. The largest German gas storage facility in Rehden already has a filling level of 81.18 percent (+0.53 percent compared to the previous day). In Austria, the storage level was 83.31 percent nationwide (+0.52 percent), including the Haidach storage facility near Salzburg, which has so far only been connected to the German gas network and is of great importance for Bavaria with a level of 82.75 percent (+0.54 percent). A storage level of 90.64 (+0.28 percent) is reported across the EU, as the data from Saturday shows.
Europas gaslager fylls däremot på enligt plan.
Enceladus
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Behind Moscow’s bluster, sanctions are making Russia suffer
The Guardian skrev:Catarina Martins, an economist at the Bruegel thinktank in Brussels, and her colleague Zsolt Darvas have been examining import and export data with Russia’s major trading partners after Putin banned the publication of official figures. In a report this month, they said imports had dropped by half this year on 75% of all trade, indicating that businesses and state-run agencies are likely to begin mothballing equipment and downgrading manufacturing due to lack of spare parts.

Sanctions have included prohibitions by the UK, EU and US of exporting strategic goods, including hi-tech equipment and components for use in electronics, telecommunications, aerospace and oil refining, among other sectors, the report says. “US sanctions apply not only to goods exported by US companies, but also to goods produced elsewhere using US technologies. The extraterritorial nature of US sanctions could help explain the generalised drop in Russia’s imports since March 2022, even from countries that have not applied sanctions,” it adds.
Den ryska ekonomin är en tickande bomb.

Russian man named as owner of truck in Crimea bridge blast — but says relative was driving it
New York Post skrev:A 25-year-old Russian man owns the truck that Russian authorities say blew up its crucial Kerch Strait bridge to Crimea — but he was not in the driver’s seat.

[...]

In a video filmed for Baza Media and posted to social media, the seemingly stunned young man said that an older relative, Makhir Yusubov, 52, was using the vehicle.

“I’ve got nothing to do with what happened on the Crimean bridge,” he said in the 28-second clip. “It was my uncle working with it, my father’s cousin, Makhir Yusubov. He has been into cargo transportation all life long.”
Här är personen som äger lastbilen som Ryssland påstår ligger bakom explosionen. Rob Lee hänvisar till en Twitter-tråd som pekar åt samma håll.

A Distracted Russia Is Losing Its Grip on Its Old Soviet Sphere
The New York Times skrev:Today, Armenia is fuming. Its prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, who has been a close ally, appealed to Moscow in vain last month for help to halt renewed attacks by Azerbaijan. Furious at Russia’s inaction, Armenia is now threatening to leave Moscow’s military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

[...]

Some officials in Bishkek wonder if Russia winked at the military action by Tajikistan, a tightly controlled dictatorship ruled by the same leader since 1994, even longer than Mr. Putin has been in control of the Kremlin. Kyrgyzstan, by contrast, is considered the only Central Asian country with a modicum of real democracy and a relatively free press.

The view of Mr. Putin siding with Tajikistan — rather than being an unbiased umpire between two members of his military alliance — gained more ground this past week when the Kremlin declared that it was giving the veteran Tajik dictator, Emomali Rahmon, a prestigious state award for his contribution to “regional stability and security.”
Ryssland tappar greppet om sin forna intressesfär, inte minst Kirgizistan. Nu ställer landet in en planerad CSTO-övning:

Russian ally cancels Russian-led military drill on its land
POLITICO skrev:The Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan on Sunday unilaterally cancelled joint military drills between the six nations making up the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, less than a day before they were due to start on its territory.

The Kyrgyz defense ministry did not specify the reason for cancelling the “Indestructible Brotherhood-2022” command and staff exercises, which were set to be held in the country’s windswept eastern highlands Monday to Friday.
Enceladus
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Putin Sees Pakistan as Russia’s Priority Partner in South Asia
Jamestown skrev:Moreover, the Kremlin views Pakistan as one of China’s closest ally and strategic partner. And for Islamabad, its road to Moscow actually goes through Beijing. On February 4, Putin attended the opening ceremony of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. The Russian leader was there to win China’s backing in Russia’s showdown with the US and its Western allies over Ukraine. Then-Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan also attended the ceremony to show solidarity with China and Russia amid the West’s boycott of the Olympic Games and position on Ukraine (Express Tribune, February 4).
Relationerna mellan Ryssland, Kina och Pakistan blir allt starkare - till Indiens förtret. Blir det ett kallt krig mellan demokratier och diktaturer?

Den 8 oktober ökade Tysklands gaslager med 0,43 procentenheter till 94,07 procent. Därmed borde det slutliga målet nås redan nästa vecka. Samtidigt ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,31 procentenheter till 90,95 procent. Till yttermera visso sägs det att även kommande veckor blir varmare än vanligt!

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 6 937 enheter, varav 1 311 stridsvagnar, 61 flygplan, 53 helikoptrar och 138 drönare (ej självmordsdrönare).

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9
ISW skrev:Ukrainian forces continued to advance east of the Oskil Rver in the direction of Luhansk Oblast and have entered Stel’makhivka (about 18km west of Svatove).[27] Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults on Burdaka on the Kharkiv Oblast-Russian border, and Terny northeast of Lyman.[28]

[...]

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian occupation authorities are moving their families from Kherson Oblast to Crimea, and from Starobilsk to Luhansk City.[35]
Följande videoklipp skildrar Ukrainas avancemang mot Svatove och i förlängningen Starobilsk:



Vidare har ChrisO en Twitter-tråd om explosionen på Kertjbron.
Lennart Petersen
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Enceladus skrev: måndag 10 oktober 2022 12:03 Putin Sees Pakistan as Russia’s Priority Partner in South Asia
Jamestown skrev:Moreover, the Kremlin views Pakistan as one of China’s closest ally and strategic partner. And for Islamabad, its road to Moscow actually goes through Beijing. On February 4, Putin attended the opening ceremony of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. The Russian leader was there to win China’s backing in Russia’s showdown with the US and its Western allies over Ukraine. Then-Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan also attended the ceremony to show solidarity with China and Russia amid the West’s boycott of the Olympic Games and position on Ukraine (Express Tribune, February 4).
Relationerna mellan Ryssland, Kina och Pakistan blir allt starkare - till Indiens förtret. Blir det ett kallt krig mellan demokratier och diktaturer?
Pakistan får väl anses vara en demokrati i nuläge, om än bräcklig med civilt styre och en folkvald regim.
Kina är det inte med en enpartiregim men det är väl uppenbart att Kina är rejält svala gentemot Ryssland. Vid omröstningen i FN säkernetsråd om ett fördömande om Rysslands krig så valde Kina att lägga ner sin röst (tillika med Indien). Och inga gratulationer på Putins födelsedag från Kina är väl en markering om avståndstagande.
Enceladus
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Enceladus skrev: lördag 01 oktober 2022 7:29 Ryssland har i praktiken förlorat om Ukraina är i position att använda Himars taktiskt snarare än strategiskt.
Det är så sant som det är sagt. Nu använder Ukraina Himars taktiskt. Därmed har Ryssland förlorat. Mobilisering innebär bara mer kanonföda.

War in Ukraine: Russia's forces are exhausted, says GCHQ head
BBC skrev:The director of the intelligence, cyber and security agency will say the costs to Russia of the war in Ukraine - in terms of both people and equipment - are "staggering" as early gains are now reversed.

[...]

Sir Jeremy also claims the Russian people are now starting to understand the problems caused by what he describes as Putin's "war of choice".

"They're seeing just how badly Putin has misjudged the situation," he will say.

"They're fleeing the draft, realising they can no longer travel. They know their access to modern technologies and external influences will be drastically restricted."
Även ryssar börjar inse att Ryssland har förlorat.

Strikes on Ukraine raise pressure on allies to send advanced air defense
The Washington Post skrev:The United States announced in early July that it would provide Ukraine with two advanced antiaircraft systems, called the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, or NASAMS. Those are part of a stream of equipment that must be contracted and built within industry rather than taken from existing stocks. Much of the work had already been done, the Pentagon said last month. “We anticipate they should reach Ukraine within the next several weeks once the systems are ready and training is complete,” a U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said Monday.

[...]

The German Defense Ministry said Monday that the first of four IRIS-T air defense systems promised to Ukraine would arrive in the “next few days,” and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Germany is doing “everything we can” to quickly reinforce Ukraine.

[...]

Ukraine is interested in air defense systems used by the French military, including the SAMP/T. Le Monde reported that one reason for France’s hesitation has been that the country has a limited stock of the necessary batteries.

[...]

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), a former senior Pentagon official, said the United States should consider providing Patriot batteries and C-RAM air defense systems. C-RAMs are chain-gun batteries that fire at incoming rounds, and are typically associated with shielding U.S. bases in the Middle East from rocket, artillery and mortar fire.
Ryssland kan dock fortsätta med terrorbombningar mot civila mål. Därför behöver Ukraina alla typer av luftvärn.

Oil Production Cut Could Be 10% Real, 90% Illusion
Bloomberg skrev:Ministers from the OPEC+ group of oil-producing countries agreed to cut their collective output target by 2 million barrels a day from November when they met on Wednesday. How much their actual production falls could be as little as one-tenth of the headline figure.

Although the group comprises 23 countries, the burden of the latest cut will be shared by just three — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Most of the others are already pumping so far below their quota levels that their output will still fall short of their new allocations.

[...]

If the Kremlin decides to halt production instead of accepting a capped price, which seems likely, the OPEC+ cut of 2 million barrels a day could suddenly become very real.

One thing’s sure, crude’s on a roller coaster ride for the rest of 2022.
Saudiarabien vill uppenbarligen ha maktskifte i USA, men det är farligt att leka med elden. Ärkerivalen Iran är elefanten i rummet. Det är inte självklart att Saudiarabien förblir "det minst dåliga alternativet" om landet går för långt och protesterna i Iran leder till förändringar.

Gas storage facilities in Germany continue to fill up – 94.44 percent
Germany Detail Zero skrev:The gas storage facilities in Germany continue to fill up – and are about to reach the next target. As of Sunday evening, the reservoirs were 94.44 percent full, up 0.36 percent from the previous day, according to data from the Association of European Gas Infrastructure Operators on Monday night.

The largest German gas storage facility in Rehden has a filling level of 82.23 percent (+0.52 percent compared to the previous day). The federal government is aiming for a nationwide average filling level of 95 percent for the beginning of November in order to get through the winter – this value could still be reached this week. In Austria, the storage level was 84.37 percent nationwide (+0.51 percent), including the Haidach storage facility near Salzburg, which has so far only been connected to the German gas network and is of great importance for Bavaria with a level of 83 .46 percent (+0.32 percent). The EU-wide reading is 91.18, Monday’s data further shows.
Europa har verkligen gjort ett hästjobb med sina gaslager!
Enceladus
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Enceladus skrev: tisdag 11 oktober 2022 7:44 Ryssland kan dock fortsätta med terrorbombningar mot civila mål. Därför behöver Ukraina alla typer av luftvärn.
Explainer-Why Russia's missiles on Ukraine have limited impact
Reuters skrev:“Bottom line: Just like it was difficult to stop Saddam from launching SCUDs, and as much as we want to help Ukraine, it’s challenging to completely counter all Putin’s war crimes that unfortunately include launching missile strikes against civilian targets,” tweeted Mark Hertling, a former commander of U.S. land forces in Europe.

Still, Monday’s attacks appear to show that Ukraine is already far from defenceless. While Kyiv’s claim to have shot down more than half of the missiles is impossible to verify, Russia did not hit any targets with the highest strategic value, such as leadership buildings in the capital, which are likely to have been best protected.
Ukraina är ett stort land, vilket gör det svårt att skydda objekt som är utspridda över hela landet. Mark Hertling skriver mer om detta här och här.

Ukraine has received IRIS-T air defence system from Germany - Spiegel
Reuters skrev:Ukraine has received a delivery of the German IRIS-T air defence system, Der Spiegel magazine reported on Tuesday.
Ukraina har dock äntligen fått sitt första västerländska luftvärnssystem!
Enceladus
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Enceladus skrev: tisdag 11 oktober 2022 7:44
Enceladus skrev: lördag 01 oktober 2022 7:29 Ryssland har i praktiken förlorat om Ukraina är i position att använda Himars taktiskt snarare än strategiskt.
Det är så sant som det är sagt. Nu använder Ukraina Himars taktiskt. Därmed har Ryssland förlorat. Mobilisering innebär bara mer kanonföda.
Enligt Rob Lee orsakar den taktiska användningen av Himars massiva ryska förluster:
Rob Lee skrev:Video from Ukrainian SSO showing HIMARS or M270 MLRS strikes on a Russian column, a BM-21 Grad MLRS battery, three Msta-S howitzers, and three Uragan MLRS 9P140 launchers.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår till 6 975 enheter, varav 1 315 stridsvagnar och 26 uråldriga T-62:or.

The independent Russian media outlet Verstka ("Layout") has published a noteworthy piece on the devastating effect that mobilisation is having on Russia's schools
ChrisO skrev:2/ Verstka reports that at one private school in St Petersburg, 80 percent of the teaching staff have left or are going to leave, due to themselves or their partners either being mobilised or fleeing abroad to avoid the draft. The school may now close as a result.

3/ In some schools, teachers have been handed mobilisation notices in front of their entire class. Star teachers have not been spared. One was awarded the title of 'Honored Teacher of the Republic of Bashkortostan' but was mobilised the following day.

[...]

8/ Even before this, Russia was already short of 250,000 teachers. Duma deputies have asked the Defence Ministry to exempt elementary and secondary school teachers. However, it has not responded and is likely opposed to the idea. /end
Utan utbildning finns ingen framtid...

As Russia Reels, Eurasia Roils
War on the Rocks skrev:In trying and failing to reclaim Russian imperial influence over Ukraine, Moscow is actively accelerating the decline of its influence throughout Eurasia, including the former Soviet countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Perceiving the fragility of Russian power, governments across the region have begun creating facts on the ground in ways that Russia’s post-imperial power long prevented. Since the start of the “special military operation” against Ukraine, worried neighbors like Kazakhstan have been demonstratively spurning Russia. In the past few weeks, Eurasia has also seen a renewal of conflicts that could be a harbinger of greater instability to come. Regional powers, especially China and Turkey, are more openly pushing back against Russian influence. And now Russia’s mobilization has touched off a flood of migration to other Eurasian states — particularly Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan. This is reversing a longstanding pattern of migration to Russia and bringing many ordinary Russians face-to-face with the resentment still felt in many post-colonial societies.

[...]

The growing influence China and Turkey is not likely to be particularly liberal, and by itself will do little to address the region’s multiple governance challenges. However, Russia’s weakness also creates an opening that more liberal players like the United States and European Union can exploit, especially as the post-Soviet generation of elites slowly passes from the stage. Even as the United States and its allies focus on helping Ukraine defeat the Russian invasion, they should also be thinking about how to further encourage the smaller Eurasian states’ no-longer-gradual escape from Russia’s shadow. Continuing investment, civil society partnerships, and the cultivation of regional cooperation mechanisms can all play a vital role in ensuring that Central Asia emerges more democratic and secure from Russia’s defeat.
Förhoppningsvis missar inte EU sin chans!

Putin’s acolytes are boxing him in
The Spectator skrev:Putin, who has a track record of delegating responsibility to his vassals and making decisions at the very last minute to leave himself as many options as possible, is ending up with fewer and fewer good choices. With defeat looming in Ukraine, cutting his losses may be his best chance for survival. But even as government elites remain too scared to stand up to him – this is why, for now, the attacks are directed against the Defense Ministry, not the Kremlin itself – Putin is too scared to stand up to his most fervent hawks, the ones calling for escalation in Ukraine. Why? Because he knows that, without the Defense Ministry standing between them, he is the one they will come at next.

In the process, Putin is undermining his own capability to balance the various factions that rule over Russia. But what the ferocious infighting is making clear is precisely the dangerous illusion of his control – the mirage with which he has inveigled the West, his own people, and, worst of all for him – himself.
Det känns onekligen som att Putin har tappat kontrollen.
Enceladus
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Elon Musk Spoke to Putin Before Tweeting Ukraine Peace Plan: Report
Vice skrev:In a mailout sent to Eurasia Group subscribers, Ian Bremmer wrote that Tesla CEO Musk told him that Putin was “prepared to negotiate,” but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised Russia’s annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

According to Bremmer, Musk said Putin told him these goals would be accomplished “no matter what,” including the potential of a nuclear strike if Ukraine invaded Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Bremmer wrote that Musk told him that “everything needed to be done to avoid that outcome.”
Intressant. Formuleringen "Chrusjtjovs misstag" är ju rysk propaganda rakt av. Elon Musk har också föreslagit en liknande "fredsplan" för Taiwan. Är han rädd för att världens två största diktaturer ska störa hans satelliter?

Russian economy activity slowed significantly at end-Sept, says central bank
Investing.com skrev:Economic activity in Russia slowed significantly at the end of September, Bank of Russia Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin told lawmakers on Tuesday, but payments to mobilised troops should cushion the negative effect on consumer demand.
Det går inte så bra för Ryssland...

Putin’s endgame? Kremlin infighting spills into the open
POLITICO skrev:If Putin’s war continues to go badly for Russia, Khodorkovsky sees two possible scenarios. In the first, the rival cabals club together and press Putin to step down so that the system he created outlives him, promising him immunity and the retention of his wealth. In that case Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, a hard-headed former director of the Federal Taxation Service, would replace Putin. “But then there would be a struggle about who controls him,” says Khodorkovsky.

Another scenario is there’s a clash between the “war party” and their opponents in the security and defense agencies, who are far more fragmented and demoralized.
Putin har målat in sig i ett hörn.
Enceladus
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed Russian military equipment with HIMARS/MLRS
Militarnyi skrev:SOF operators used the unmanned reconnaissance aircraft to detect cluster sites, convoys, and personnel of Russian invader forces, and transmitted their positions to Ukrainian units armed with Western HIMARS and MLRS rocket artillery systems.

The calculation of data and the launch of precision missiles were likely carried out directly after targets were found. This is confirmed by the footage of the hits to moving targets.

[...]

There are reported cases of HIMARS crews working continuously for 37 hours.
Ukraina bekräftar de massiva ryska förlusterna efter den taktiska användningen av Himars. Det är dock ett slitsamt arbete för besättningen.

The Hunt to Arm Ukraine Leads to Difficult Choices
The New York Times skrev:Until this month, Cyprus had been under a U.S. arms embargo for 35 years, imposed to help tamp down tensions after a conflict left the island bitterly divided between a government backed by Greece and a portion still controlled by Turkey — both NATO members.

[...]

Cyprus “would be ready to consider” transferring some of its weapons and ammunition to Ukraine if they were “replaced with other military apparatus of equal power and capabilities,” Marios Pelekanos, a government spokesman, said in a statement to The New York Times.

[...]

Already, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has pledged to reinforce his troops in northern Cyprus with additional weapons as the U.S. embargo is lifted.

[...]

Among the potential suppliers, Cyprus stands out.

With its Russian-made rocket launchers, surface-to-air missiles, helicopters, tanks and armored vehicles, Cyprus holds “the very systems that Ukraine needs to support its counteroffensives, and to hold the territory that they retake — and, more broadly, to defeat Putin’s invasion of Ukraine,” said Bradley Bowman, a former U.S. Army officer and senior military expert at FDD who co-authored the analysis.
Cypern har tydligen mycket sovjetisk utrustning, bland annat på grund av ett tidigare embargo. Bara Erdogan inte ställer till det...

Elon Musk blocks Ukraine from using Starlink in Crimea over concern that Putin could use nuclear weapons: report
Business Insider skrev:Elon Musk personally rejected a Ukrainian request to extend his satellite internet service to Crimea, the SpaceX CEO fearing that an effort to retake the peninsula from Russian forces could lead to a nuclear war, according to a report published Tuesday.
Elon Musk påminner allt mer om Erdogan. Det är svårt att säga på vilken sida han står!

Bombing Kyiv Into Submission? History Says It Won’t Work.
The New York Times skrev:But attacks on residential districts erase distinctions between soldiers and civilians. Londoners in the Blitz described feeling deep solidarity with British soldiers overseas, leading many to organize in the war’s support rather than asking their leaders to back down.

This sense of society-wide solidarity can also deepen peoples’ willingness to bear a long and costly struggle for victory, along with their belief that there may be no surer path to safety.

Ukrainian families afflicted by Russian bombs, which have brought the front lines to their very homes, have described feeling much the same.

Strikes like Mr. Putin’s have backfired so consistently in modern warfare that some analysts have wondered whether his aims might be focused, at least in part, more at home: appeasing frustrated Russian hard-liners. But, if history is any guide, those critics’ may find that their dissatisfaction with the war’s progress is only deepened by Monday’s attacks.
Putin gör självmål efter självmål. Den nya befälhavaren Sergej Surovikin, som är känd för sin hänsynslöshet mot civila, gör situationen ännu värre.

Biden scrambles to avert cracks in pro-Ukraine coalition
The Washington Post skrev:Privately, U.S. officials say neither Russia nor Ukraine is capable of winning the war outright, but they have ruled out the idea of pushing or even nudging Ukraine to the negotiating table. They say they do not know what the end of the war looks like, or how it might end or when, insisting that is up to Kyiv.

“That’s a decision for the Ukrainians to make,” a senior State Department official said. “Our job now is to help them be in absolutely the best position militarily on the battlefield … for that day when they do choose to go to the diplomatic table.”

And Ukrainian officials now say they have less appetite to negotiate than ever before, given their recent battlefield successes and Russia’s illegal annexation attempt.
Genom sina idiotiska terrorbombningar har Putin tagit kål på Ukraina förhandlingsvilja. Då återstår bara en förlust på slagfältet.

Från dagens ISW-sammanfattning:
ISW skrev:The Russian Federation is likely extracting ammunition and other materiel from Belarusian storage bases, which is incompatible with the notion that Russian forces are setting conditions for a ground attack against Ukraine from Belarus.

[...]

Russian reporting of explosions in Dzhankoy, Crimea, indicated panic over losing further logistics capabilities in Crimea following the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion.
Ryssland tömmer Belarus på material. Samtidigt gör Ukraina detsamma på den ockuperade halvön.
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